Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Douglas Tait, Senior Researcher, Southern Cross University

The Great Barrier Reef is one of Australia’s most important environmental and economic assets. It is estimated to contribute A$56 billion per year and supports about 64,000 full-time jobs, according to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation. However, the reef is under increasing pressure.

While much public attention is focused on the impacts of climate change on the Great Barrier Reef and the debate around its endangered status, water quality is also crucial to the reef’s health and survival.

Our new study, published today in the journal Environmental Science and Technology, found that previously unquantified groundwater inputs are the largest source of new nutrients to the reef. This finding could potentially change how the Great Barrier Reef is managed.

Too much of a good thing

Although nitrogen and phosphorous are essential to support the incredible biodiversity of the reef, too much nutrient can lead to losses of coral biodiversity and coverage. It also increases the abundance of algae and the ability of coral larvae to grow into adult coral, and impacts seagrass coverage and health, which is crucial for fisheries and biodiversity.

Nutrient enrichment can also promote the breeding success of crown-of-thorns starfish, whose increasing populations and voracious appetite for corals have decimated parts of the reef in recent decades.

What are the sources of nutrients driving the degradation of the reef? Previous studies have focused on river discharge. According to one estimate, there has been a fourfold increase in riverine nutrient input to the Great Barrier Reef since pre-industrial times.

This past focus on rivers has emphasised reducing surface water nutrient inputs through changing regulations for land-clearing and agriculture, while neglecting other potential sources.

Read more:
Floods of nutrients from fertilisers and wastewater trash our rivers. Could offsetting help?

However, the most recent nutrient budget for the Great Barrier Reef found river-derived nutrient inputs can account for only a small proportion of the nutrients necessary to support the abundant life in the reef. This imbalance suggests large, unidentified sources of nutrients to the reef. Not knowing what these are may lead to ineffective management approaches.

With recent government funding of more than $200 million to tackle water quality on the reef which is largely focused on managing river water inputs, it is crucial to make sure other nutrient sources are not overlooked.

We found a new nutrient source

Our research team decided to try and track down this missing source of nutrients.

We used natural tracers to track groundwater inputs off Queensland’s coast. This allows us to quantify how much invisible groundwater flows into the Great Barrier Reef, along with the nutrients hitching a ride with this water. Our findings indicate that current efforts to preserve and restore the health of the reef may require a new perspective.

Our team collected data from offshore surveys, rivers and coastal bores along the coastline from south of Rockhampton to north of Cairns. We used the natural groundwater tracer radium to track how much nutrient is transported from the land and shelf sediments via invisible groundwater flows.

Read more:
How a disgruntled scientist looking to prove his food wasn’t fresh discovered radioactive tracers and won a Nobel Prize 80 years ago

We found that groundwater discharge was 10–15 times greater than river inputs. This meant roughly one-third of new nitrogen and two-thirds of phosphorous inputs came via groundwater discharge. This was nearly twice the amount of nutrient delivered by river waters.

Past investigations have revealed that groundwater discharge delivers nutrients and affects water quality in a diverse range of coastal environments, including estuaries, coral reefs, coastal embayments and lagoons, intertidal wetlands such as mangroves and saltmarshes, the continental shelf and even the global ocean.

In some cases, this can account for 90% of the nutrient inputs to coastal areas, which has major implications for global biologic production.

Nevertheless, this pathway remains overlooked in most coastal nutrient budgets and water quality models.

A paradigm shift needed?

Our results suggest the need for a strategic shift in management approaches aimed at safeguarding the Great Barrier Reef from the effects of excess nutrients.

This includes better land management practices to ensure fewer nutrients are entering groundwater aquifers. We can also use ecological (such as seaweed and bivalve aquaculture, enhancing seagrass, oyster reefs, mangroves and salt marsh) and hydrological (increasing flushing where possible) practices at groundwater discharge hotspots to reduce excess nutrients in the water column.

The reuse of nutrient-rich groundwater for agriculture also needs to be explored as it represents an untapped and inexpensive nutrient source.

Importantly, unlike river outflow, nutrients in groundwater can be stored underground for decades before being discharged into coastal waters. This means research and strategies to protect the reef need to be long-term. The potential large lag time may lead to significant problems in the coming decades as the nutrients now stored in underground aquifers make their way to coastal waters regardless of changes to current land use practices.

The understanding and ability to manage the sources of nutrients is pivotal in preserving global coral reef systems.

While we need to reduce the impact of climate change on this fragile ecosystem, we also need to adjust our policies to manage nutrient inputs and safeguard the Great Barrier Reef for generations to come.

Read more:
Out of danger because the UN said so? Hardly – the Barrier Reef is still in hot water

The authors receive funding from the Australian Research Council, the Herman Slade Foundation and the Great Barrier Reef Foundation.

Damien Maher receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Hermon Slade Foundation, Great Barrier Reef Foundation.

– ref. There’s a hidden source of excess nutrients suffocating the Great Barrier Reef. We found it – https://theconversation.com/theres-a-hidden-source-of-excess-nutrients-suffocating-the-great-barrier-reef-we-found-it-214364

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey University

It may have been largely overlooked in the election debates, but New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions are finally on the way down.

Annual emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels are the lowest since 1999 and the 12-month renewable share of electricity is back above 90% for the first time since 1981. The Ministry for the Environment has advised New Zealand is on track to meet the first (2022-2025) carbon budget.

All this can be attributed to a range of factors, including fossil gas running low, full hydro lakes, high petrol prices and working from home. But climate policies such as the Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS), the clean car discount and the Climate Emergency Response Fund (CERF) have made a significant contribution to the turnaround.

Current decarbonisation policies have and will continue to deliver real emissions cuts, provided they remain in place.

It is therefore disconcerting that the National Party plans to take $2.3 billion from the CERF (almost two-thirds of the fund’s mid-2022 balance) to pay for tax cuts. The argument that individual households will use tax cuts to make their own decarbonisation decisions is unsupported by evidence and lacks credibility.

The Labour Party has also dipped into this fund, taking $236 million to pay for rebates for household installations of solar panels and batteries, and community energy schemes. These may produce some as yet unquantified emissions cuts.

Government funding is working

Allocations from the Government Investment in Decarbonising Industry (GIDI) fund to NZ Steel and Fonterra show direct and measurable avoidance of emissions. The installation of an electric furnace at NZ Steel to utilise scrap will save 1% (800,000 tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions, or tCO₂e) of New Zealand’s 2021 gross emissions. Support for Fonterra to convert coal-fired boilers at six plants to renewables will save 1.4% (1.1 MtCO₂e).

The Act Party has pledged to disestablish this fund.

The State Sector Decarbonisation Fund, valued at $215 million and used to reduce emissions in government organisations including hospitals and universities, is on track to deliver emissions savings of nearly a million tonnes over ten years (0.1% per year).

Since the introduction of the clean car discount in July 2021, sales of electric vehicles have quintupled and now have a 12% market share. The market share of all low-emission vehicles rose from 20% to 60%, easily surpassing emissions targets of the clean car standard which came into force this year.

While these rates of increase may look impressive, the actual number of EVs remains very low. Nonetheless, emissions cuts already run into hundreds of thousands of tonnes per year, a significant part of which is due to the clean car discount.

Need for more investment

New Zealand is not yet on track to meet its international pledge (known as Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC, and covering all emissions from 2021 to 2030) or the second and third carbon budgets.

Many important policy matters are either unresolved or stuck in review: how to meet the NDC, whether and how to prioritise gross emissions reductions over tree planting, how to reduce agricultural emissions.

Read more:
The battle for NZ’s farming heartland: Groundswell, ACT and the changing face of rural politics

In its pre-election fiscal and economic update, Treasury warned of the risks these uncertainties entail:

The actual cost of achieving emissions reduction targets and addressing risks from climate change will likely exceed the overall size of the Climate Emergency Response Fund.

Lack of an integrated plan

In the year to June 2023, oil was responsible for nearly three-quarters of fossil fuel emissions. Two-thirds of this came from transport. But transport emissions are supposed to fall 41% by 2035 – a massive task that will involve pressing hard on all three parts of the avoid/shift/improve transport framework.

Unfortunately, the framework is looking shaky.

Read more:
New Zealand must get over its obsession with big cars and go smaller or electric to cut emissions

Regarding avoidance, even the draft local plans for avoiding car travel are not yet ready. Labour and National are competing as to who can offer the most extravagant motorway plans, known to encourage driving.

When it comes to shifting modes of transport, there has been some expansion of urban cycleways. But Auckland’s city rail link will not open until 2026. And a great deal has to happen to meet the Climate Change Commission’s draft advice to “complete cycleway networks by 2030 and take steps to complete rapid transport networks by 2035”.

The National Party plans to cut public transport funding and increase fares.

As for improvement, the National Party plans to cancel the clean car discount and weaken the clean car standard. The current plan requires 30% of the entire light-vehicle fleet to be zero emission by 2035 (currently at 1.4%), which is ambitious but doable under the existing framework.

New Zealand still doesn’t have any kind of fuel-efficiency standard or coordinated policy on heavy-vehicle emissions.

Renewable energy

New Zealand’s renewable share for all energy (not just electricity) has been stuck below 30% for decades. It is supposed to reach 50% by 2035 and then continue to increase until use of fossil fuels is almost entirely eliminated.

New Zealand has untapped resources of renewable energy, wind, solar and geothermal. An even bigger supply of offshore wind is now being explored.

Read more:
The untapped power of ocean winds – why New Zealand is looking offshore for future renewable energy

At the recent New Zealand wind energy conference, many massive possible projects were mooted. But delegates said they needed to be sure the electricity demand would be there before making final investment decisions.

The fate of the Climate Emergency Response Fund is of great importance, as international evidence shows:

It is the use of revenues from carbon prices, not the carbon prices themselves, which trigger change.

Depleting this fund will slow electrification and demand for renewable energy.

New Zealand’s current emissions reduction plan, which runs to 2025, is a package. Its parts support each other and attempt to balance many people’s needs. If one part is weakened, the difference has to be made up elsewhere.

This article was prepared with the assistance of Paul Callister.

Ian Mason is affiliated with the NZ Offshore Wind Working Group.

Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New Zealand’s carbon emissions are on the way down – thanks in part to policies now under threat – https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-carbon-emissions-are-on-the-way-down-thanks-in-part-to-policies-now-under-threat-214640

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Suzanne Rice, Senior Lecturer, Education Policy and Leadership, The University of Melbourne

Australia’s teaching workforce does not reflect the diversity of the Australian community, a situation that has far-reaching implications for our education system.

As we outline in our new research, published today, teachers are predominantly Australian-born, female, and non-Indigenous.

Most hail from middle-class backgrounds with urban upbringings, and are less likely to have disabilities.

So why is this lack of diversity a problem? And what can be done to help overcome it?

Read more:
Australia has a plan to fix its school teacher shortage. Will it work?

Teacher shortages and student achievement

Australia is in the midst of a teacher shortage, which is affecting schools in unequal ways.

Schools in rural, remote areas, and those with higher levels of disadvantage have been shown to bear the brunt of this issue.

Our research suggests diversifying the teaching workforce can help address attaining and retaining teachers in schools and strengthen student outcomes across the board.

Diversity makes a difference

Research shows teachers from minority groups, such as teachers of colour, can increase student achievement, especially for students from the same groups.

Evidence also suggests teachers from minority groups often hold higher expectations for their minority students compared with majority teachers. For example, Black teachers tend to have higher expectations than white teachers of Black students, and students respond to this with greater effort.

Teachers from minority groups can act as role models for people from similar backgrounds.

Teachers from minority groups can also act as cultural “bridges” to parents and students from these groups, fostering a sense of belonging and facilitating cultural understanding among students and colleagues.

Teachers from minority groups are also more likely to stay in hard-to-staff schools impacted the most during a staffing crisis.

For example, teachers from ethnic minorities are more likely to teach and stay in schools with many minority students, and teachers from rural areas are more likely to teach and remain in rural schools.

So, how can we increase the diversity of the teaching workforce?

Grow-your-own programs

One approach we examined in our new report is known as a “grow-your-own program”, which focus on would-be teachers already working in schools. This is where would-be teachers are given financial assistance by governments, and other support such as a mentor or study groups. Upon finishing the program, they become fully qualified teachers in their local school.

The research shows grow-your-own programs can increase teacher diversity and address staffing shortages. They can support people already working in hard-to-staff schools, such as teacher aides, to undertake teaching qualifications.

By recruiting people who already have ongoing connections with the community, grow-your-own programs produce graduates likely to take up and retain teaching positions in these communities.

New South Wales is currently trialling a similar program targeting teacher aides. The Northern Territory and Queensland also have targeted grow-your-own programs for Indigenous people.

Teacher residency programs

Teacher residency programs bring candidates into schools from the beginning of their training, where they are closely mentored by experienced teachers.

Candidates teach actively from the start while completing their teaching qualification.

These programs are usually focused on increasing the supply of teachers, rather than increasing diversity.

But since they allow people to earn an income and train at the same time, they can remove barriers, such as the costs of full-time study, for those from minority groups.

Targeted scholarships for teacher trainees

Scholarships can help meet the costs of studying to become a teacher, and have been used for decades, although mostly without an emphasis on teacher diversity.

Australian departments of education already offer scholarships targeted to Indigenous secondary and university students who want to become teachers, or who are in teacher training.

We know these scholarships do work to support people into teaching and could be targeted to other minority groups as well.

Building bridges between VET and teacher training

Vocational education and training (VET) courses can be easier and cheaper to access than university courses.

For some students they feel like less of a cultural and financial “leap” than going to university.

Building pathways between VET and teacher education courses can help diversify the teaching workforce. Victoria University and Charles Darwin University offer good examples in Australia.

Overcoming barriers

Those wishing to become teachers in Australia already face several barriers.

One is a test known as the Literacy and Numeracy Test for Initial Teacher Education (LANTITE), which aspiring teachers must pass.

While it’s important our teachers have strong literacy and numeracy skills, some people from diverse backgrounds can find tests threatening and underperform. We need to consider whether there are alternatives that are equally valid.

School context and culture is also important. Encouraging a person from a minority group into teaching won’t help if the structures and cultures in the workplace don’t support them and cater for diversity.

School leadership, parents and students need to recognise that staff diversity strengthens the school, and support minority staff appropriately.

We need to make sure schools are places where diverse teachers feel valued and can flourish.

Policymakers and schools must recognise teacher workforce diversity is a key component of school quality.

Read more:
How ‘TeachTok’ is helping teachers connect with their students on TikTok

Suzanne Rice received funding from the Jack Keating Scholarship Fund to complete this research.

Alice Garner was affiliated with the Victorian Department of Education between 2014 and 2019 when employed as a secondary school teacher. During this period she was a member of the Australian Education Union.

Lorraine Graham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australia’s teacher workforce has a diversity problem. Here’s how we can fix it – https://theconversation.com/australias-teacher-workforce-has-a-diversity-problem-heres-how-we-can-fix-it-214564

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Yao, Senior Lecturer, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Youth unemployment is a global problem, but in China the rate – 21.3% – is particularly alarming, not just because it’s high, but because it could affect other economies and geopolitical relations.

The release of the rate, which more than doubled the pre-COVID rate of May 2018, coincided with China’s National Bureau of Statistics announcing it would no longer report age specific data because it needed to “improve and optimise labour force survey statistics”.

Youth unemployment is a complex issue, but even more so in China as a result of government policy and society’s expectations.

Under the Hukou system, households in China are required to register, and authorities then determine where they live and work and which public services they can access.

The system often stops rural residents taking advantage of urban opportunities, which can limit their work prospects.

The stress and uncertainty experienced by this demographic is only worsened by the expectations that come with being the only child in the family as a result of China’s one child policy, which was abandoned only seven years ago.

The “Ant Tribe” phenomenon

The term “Ant Tribe” was coined in 2009 by sociologist Lian Si to describe highly educated young people stuck in low-paying, temporary jobs that hinder skill advancement.

These young people can’t accumulate social capital, leading to a negative cycle that’s hard to escape. This diminishes their return on their investment in education and highlights a breakdown in the career ecosystem.

The “Ant Tribe” phenomenon is more than just a sign of a flawed economy. It also reveals a deeper emotional and psychological issue. Being over educated and underemployed causes significant emotional trauma, including anxiety, depression and hopelessness.

This emotional toll is further complicated by societal shifts such as the “lying flat” movement and the rise of “full time children” in China.

These trends challenge traditional markers of success and redefine family expectations, adding another layer to the psychological complexities faced by the younger generation. The impact can be long-lasting, leading to a less productive and innovative workforce.

Weaknesses in the education system

Despite rapid expansion in higher education, a disconnect exists between university curricula and job market needs.

Programs often favour theory over practical skills, leaving graduates ill-equipped for work. For example, engineering students might focus on equations and theories but miss out on real-world applications such as internships.

Additionally, the market faces a glut of overqualified candidates, especially in the technology, finance and healthcare sectors. This imbalance drives many towards further studies.

In 2023, a total of 4.74 million students took the postgraduate entrance exam, a staggering 135% increase on the 2.01 million test takers in 2017. This cycle exacerbates youth unemployment and underemployment.

The wider impact

The ripple effect of China’s youth unemployment crisis is not to be underestimated. Drawing on warnings from UNICEF, high unemployment rates can lead to civil unrest, especially in nations with a large youth population.

The Chinese Communist Party has long maintained its authoritarian approach by securing a social licence based on economic stability and prosperity.

If rising youth unemployment erodes this licence by fostering political disengagement or radicalisation, China could experience a significant internal power shift.

In a globally connected world, such turmoil could spill over into international relations. Civic unrest can make a country less stable and thus less attractive to foreign investment, especially among nations with close economic ties to China.

Read more:
Inside the world’s largest higher education boom

Such an internal upheaval also threatens to destabilise supply chains globally, given China’s pivotal role in global supply chains.

Historical examples such as the Arab Spring and Brexit show internal dissatisfaction and social unrest can have ripple effects on a country’s international relations.

The Arab Spring led to the overthrow of multiple governments, created regional instability, influenced global oil prices, and necessitated the resetting of foreign policy by Western countries.

Similarly, Brexit impacted global trade agreements, led to political realignment, and caused the European Union to reconsider its future direction, affecting its collective foreign policy.

While youth unemployment is a global dilemma, the extent of the problem in China and its potential broader impact on interconnected economies means we can’t afford to ignore it.

What can China do to solve the problem?

China can find policy inspiration from successful initiatives in other countries, such as Germany’s dual vocational training system. This system ensures students are both academically prepared and practically skilled, better aligning education with labour market demands.

Addressing the urban/rural divide is equally crucial. By offering financial incentives including tax breaks and grants, China could promote job growth in rural areas. Australia and the United States have adopted similar models to attract healthcare workers to less populated regions.

China also needs to do something to reduce the emotional toll of chronic unemployment which worsens the longer graduates are out of work. Post-COVID, the issue is exacerbated, with 40% of Chinese youth reported to be susceptible to mental health challenges.

This is where mental health services such as those available in Australia that are tailored to young people could help. Besides benefiting the individual, these programs contribute to a more engaged, productive workforce essential for national well being.

Read more:
Young, educated and underemployed: are we building a nation of PhD baristas?

The precarious nature of the gig economy can further deepen the unemployment crisis. Some European countries such as France and the Netherlands consider gig workers employees and offer social security benefits. A similar model could be implemented in China, providing benefits such as health insurance and retirement plans.

Finally, the scale and complexity of youth unemployment requires a multi-pronged approach that extends beyond national borders.

Countries should actively share successful employment strategies and cooperate on international initiatives to create job opportunities for youth. Collaboration is the key to developing a globally stable, productive young workforce.

Investing in young people isn’t just good policy. It’s a moral imperative for global stability and shared prosperity.

Christian Yao does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. China’s youth unemployment problem has become a crisis we can no longer ignore – https://theconversation.com/chinas-youth-unemployment-problem-has-become-a-crisis-we-can-no-longer-ignore-213751

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan Golding, Associate Professor, Swinburne University of Technology

An enthusiastic, sellout crowd arrived at Melbourne’s Hamer Hall in September to hear an evening of music from Orchestra Victoria.

The program consisted largely of Australian music and premiere performances. If the sight of 3,500 filled seats (filled, anecdotally, by those much younger than the typical orchestra audience) did not indicate how deeply this music was loved, then the standing ovation at the end of the night would leave no-one in doubt.

This packed concert, however, wasn’t a performance of a symphonic great or even a major film soundtrack. It was an evening of music created for video games.

Video games are now a cultural activity for the vast majority of Australians and a major platform through which audiences are introduced to new music.

Audiences have personal, even intimate relationships with the music of video games, given the long hours spent playing in lounge rooms and studies around the nation.

The potential of video-game music is particularly evident in Australia, where several independent video games have obtained both critical and commercial success around the world. This is, in part, thanks to their music, such as Cult of the Lamb (2022), Unpacking (2021) and Hollow Knight (2017).

However, how the game developers actually work with musicians to produce these landmark works has so far been an unanswered question.

Read more:
How video games like ‘Starfield’ are creating a new generation of classical music fans

Performing on the global stage

Our new Music and Games 2023 Benchmark aims to establish the scope and scale of Australia’s game-music sector.

Our research includes findings about working conditions, rights, royalties and more. It paints a picture of a sector confidently performing on the global stage alongside far bigger national industries.

Game music work is overwhelmingly being undertaken in Australia as contract-based freelance work and rarely as full-time employment. Despite this, game developers see composers as fundamental creative partners.

Game music workers feel they have meaningful input on the projects they work on. They rarely approach game soundtracks as “just another gig”. This is reinforced by our finding the vast majority of game music workers in Australia create original music for game projects, rather than implementing pre-existing works.

Australian game composers are more likely than workers in other soundtrack sectors to retain rights and opportunities.

In film and television, disadvantageous “buyout” contracts, where composers hand over all ownership of their music to studios, have become common. In the Australian game music sector, such arrangements exist in only 13% of projects. This allows most composers to retain ownership of their music and to tap into additional revenue streams like performance royalties.

An astonishing 74% of music workers are able to release their game’s soundtrack personally and independently, rather than going through either the game’s studio, publisher or a music label.

Read more:
Music that you help make: composition for video gaming draws on tradition and tech

Different ways of working

There is no “one way” of working for Australian game music workers, with a wide diversity of skills and experiences evident.

Many composers work directly with game development tools or with audio “middleware” such as Fmod or Wwise on game projects. Tools like these allow composers to engage with the game’s production and implement their music directly into the game, rather than simply handing over audio files to game developers.

Around half, however, prioritise music creation and leave implementation of that music up to the developers. This means technical knowledge of game development is not as integral to creating game music as many may assume.

Creative communication skills are also important for musicians and highly valued by game developers who may otherwise find music to be a language they do not speak.

Like the game development and music sectors more broadly, unpaid work remains common. Only 53% of game music workers report any income from this work.

However, we found the median annual income for all game music workers is A$40,000, compared to only $30,576 for musicians generally. Among those who make more than the Australian minimum wage ($45,000) from game music, this jumps to a considerable median income of $82,500.

Being at the intersection of games and music also means the gender and racial inequalities of the video game and screen composing sectors are entrenched within game music.

Three-quarters of all game music workers identified themselves as male, and 72% as white, Caucasian or European. While Australia has diverse musicians, they currently have unequal ability to move into game music. This needs proactive solutions.

Creative works in their own right

Our benchmarking report reveals an exciting and so far under-appreciated area of cultural activity in Australia.

Australian game soundtracks are not sterile assets produced for a mass medium. They are genuine creative works that are adored in their own right by audiences around the world.

However, growing the sector in Australia requires focused support. Its lack of diversity is a major area of concern.

Even while game music workers are able to retain generous rights to their music, many are frustrated and confused by the lack of clear standards. We also heard several stories of workers being pressured to give up their rights once an international publisher decided to invest in a local game developer.

As Australia’s game industry continues to grow, it will be important to watch how Australia’s musicians are brought along for the ride.

Read more:
A sustainable Australian video game industry? Production rebates are a small, important step

Dan Golding received funding from Creative Australia to undertake the Australian Music and Games 2023 Benchmark report. He is also a practicing videogame composer and made music for Untitled Goose Game and the Frog Detective series, both of which are mentioned in the report.

Brendan Keogh received funding from Creative Australia to undertake the Australian Music and Games 2023 Benchmark report.

Taylor Hardwick worked as a Research Assistant at the QUT Digital Media Research Centre (DMRC), which received funding from Creative Australia to undertake the Australian Music and Games 2023 Benchmark report.

– ref. Australian video-game music is an exciting area of cultural activity – and you should be paying attention – https://theconversation.com/australian-video-game-music-is-an-exciting-area-of-cultural-activity-and-you-should-be-paying-attention-214837

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The government’s efforts to tackle Indigenous disadvantage will not be as effective if Saturday’s referendum fails, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said.

Albanese has also reconfirmed that if there is a “no” vote he will not seek to legislate a Voice.

The government would respect the outcome, he said on Sunday. “If Australians vote “no”, I don’t believe that it would be appropriate to then go and say, oh, well you’ve had your say, but we’re going to legislate anyway”.

As the campaign enters its final days, the ABC’s “poll of the polls” had “yes” at an average of 41.2%, and “no” on 58.8%. To pass, the referendum needs a national majority and to win in a majority of states.

Albanese told a rally in Queanbeyan he would be visiting Broken Hill, Port Lincoln, Mutitjulu, Uluru and Melbourne, Hobart, Perth, Adelaide and Sydney in the final stretch.

Asked on the ABC whether he’d walk away from the Voice altogether if there was a no vote, he was unequivocal, saying “correct.”

“What you do when we’re talking about the Voice is listening. And Indigenous Australians have said they want a Voice that’s enshrined [in the Constitution].

“What they don’t want to do is what they’ve done time and time again, which is to be a part of establishing representative organisations only to see, for opportunistic reasons, a government to come in and just abolish it.”

The federal opposition is committed to legislating local and regional Voices.

Albanese said the government was already undertaking measures to combat Indigenous disadvantage but, in the event of a “no” vote, “it won’t be as effective as having a body, a Voice to be listened to”.

“But we’ll continue to do things like, we’re replacing the remote jobs program with a program for employment that actually creates real jobs with real wages. We’ll continue to invest in justice reinvestment, looking at programs like Bourke that work effectively. We’ll continue to invest in community health.

“But what a Voice will do is provide for an opportunity for us to replicate the success stories. There are success stories out there. Success stories where Indigenous kids are going to school, where health programs are being improved.”

Albanese said the referendum was being watched internationally. If it was carried, “it will be seen that Australia has come to terms with our history, that we’re a mature nation”.

The debate was about “whether we’re a country that looks for hope and optimism and for the future, or whether we shrink in on ourselves”.

But if the referendum went down, “we will go out there and explain the position”.

Deputy opposition leader Sussan Ley told Sky: “Whatever the result is on Saturday it will be bad, divisive and unhappy for Australians the next day. So we do need to bring the country together.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A ‘no’ win will make it harder for government to tackle Indigenous disadvantage: Albanese – https://theconversation.com/a-no-win-will-make-it-harder-for-government-to-tackle-indigenous-disadvantage-albanese-215232

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eyal Mayroz, Senior Lecturer in Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Sydney

Almost 50 years ago to the day, Israel failed to anticipate the outbreak of the 1973 Yom Kippur war – a shock attack on its borders by a coalition of Arab states.

Now, it appears the country’s intelligence apparatuses have fallen victim to a false sense of security once again.

The belief, widely shared across Israeli society, that the Hamas militant group would avoid a large-scale military confrontation with Israel to protect itself and spare further suffering and harm to the residents of Gaza was shattered by a surprise assault on Saturday morning by air, land and sea.

The attack began with a barrage of more than 2,000 rockets fired into Israel. Under the cover of the rockets, a large-scale, carefully coordinated, ground operation set out from Gaza and attacked more than 20 Israeli towns and army bases adjacent to the strip.

Israeli losses, estimated presently at more than 250 dead and as many as 1,500 wounded, are certain to increase in the coming hours and days.

Israel’s military reserves have commenced a massive mobilisation as aerial bombings of Hamas installations and command posts in Gaza are being carried out. More than 230 Palestinian casualties have been reported so far in Gaza, with 1,700 wounded.

Calculations behind the attack

As in the case of the Yom Kippur war, numerous analyses and investigations will be undertaken in the coming weeks, months and years on the intelligence, operational and political failures that allowed the Hamas attack to unfold. The assault was apparently initially undetected by Israel, and then for hours met with either insufficient or unprepared Israeli forces.

Similar to the 1973 war, the purposefully chosen timing of a Sabbath and the Jewish holiday of Sukkot provide initial, though very partial, clues to the breakdown.

Hamas’ strategic calculations in launching the attack are uncertain at this stage. However, the assured severity of Israel’s retaliation against the group – and as a consequence, the civilian population in Gaza – makes it likely that considerations beyond just tit-for-tat revenge were at play.

Read more:
Can the world stop Israel and Hamas from committing war crimes? 7 questions answered about international law

Kidnapping Israelis for prisoner swaps with Hamas militants jailed in Israel, for instance, has been among the most highly desired objectives of the group’s military operations in the past.

In 2011, a single Israel soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been held captive in Gaza since 2006, was exchanged for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. Among these prisoners was Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ current leader in Gaza, who had served 22 years in an Israeli jail.

The reports of dozens of Israelis being taken captive in this weekend’s assault – many of them civilians – suggest this may have been a central motive behind the attack. An unknown number of hostages held for hours by Hamas militants in two Israeli southern towns were later freed by Israeli special forces.

Another broader objective for Hamas may have been to undermine the ongoing negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia on an agreement to normalise relations between the kingdom and Israel.

Thwarting these talks would be a significant boon for Iran, a key backer of Hamas, and its allies. While Tehran has said it supports the attacks by Hamas against Israel, it remains uncertain at this point whether Iran or Hezbollah (the militant group in Lebanon that has a growing partnership with Hamas) would open additional fronts against Israel in the coming days.

Any escalation in the conflict from either Iran or Lebanon would be highly problematic for Israel. The same would apply if the war with Hamas further exacerbates the already high tensions and violent clashes between Israel and Palestinian militant groups in the West Bank.

What could happen next?

Named “Iron Swords,” Israel’s retaliatory offensive against Hamas in Gaza is likely to last a long time. The challenges it faces are massive.

Along with the need to restore the trust of the Israeli public and resurrect Israel’s smashed military deterrence against Hamas and other foes, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will likely have to deal with other complexities:

• the fate of potentially dozens of Israeli hostages
• the significantly elevated risks for Israel’s forces should a ground incursion be carried out
• and the threats of escalation on other fronts, including Lebanon, the West Bank, and mixed Jewish-Palestinian cities inside Israel.

International support for an aggressive operation could also become difficult to retain amid a mounting toll of civilian Palestinian casualties.

The current round of violence has barely started, but it could end up being the bloodiest in decades – perhaps since the war between Israel and the Palestinians in Lebanon during the 1980s.

As noted, Israelis will consider it critically important to reclaim their country’s military deterrence capabilities against Hamas, which in the eyes of many, may necessitate a military takeover of Gaza. This would bring more devastating outcomes for Gaza’s civilian population.

For many Palestinians, this weekend’s events offered Israelis a small taste of what their own lives have been like under decades of occupation. However, the early celebrations will likely soon turn into anger and frustration as the numbers of Palestinian civilian casualties will continue to rise. Violence begets violence.

In the short and medium terms, the trauma of Hamas’ surprise attack is bound to have momentous consequences for Israel’s domestic politics.

It’s still too early to assess the likely many long-term impacts of the attack on Israelis and their sense of security. But one thing is clear: the already challenging prospects for the building of trust between the Israeli and Palestinian peoples have just suffered a devastating blow.

Read more:
30 years after Arafat-Rabin handshake, clear flaws in Oslo Accords doomed peace talks to failure

In his 2022 memoir, Bibi: My Story, Netanyahu wrote about his decision during Israel’s “Pillar of Defense” operation against Hamas in 2012 to avoid an Israeli ground assault in Gaza.

Such an attack, he warned, could lead to many hundreds of Israeli Defence Force casualties and many thousands of Palestinian casualties – something he was adamantly against. He did authorise ground incursions on two other occasions (operations “Cast Lead” in 2008 and “Protective Edge” in 2014). But his cautious tendencies prevailed in other cases, at times, in the face of strong pressure.

Arguably, this weekend’s national trauma and the radical make-up of Netanyahu’s right-wing government will make it very difficult for him to show similar restraint in the coming days.

Eyal Mayroz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. After a shocking Hamas assault on Israel, both sides brace for the devastating fallout – https://theconversation.com/after-a-shocking-hamas-assault-on-israel-both-sides-brace-for-the-devastating-fallout-215230

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eyal Mayroz, Senior Lecturer in Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Sydney

Almost 50 years ago to the day, Israel failed to anticipate the outbreak of the 1973 Yom Kippur war – a shock attack on its borders by a coalition of Arab states.

Now, it appears the country’s intelligence apparatuses have fallen victim to a false sense of security once again.

The belief, widely shared across Israeli society, that the Hamas militant group would avoid a large-scale military confrontation with Israel to protect itself and spare further suffering and harm to the residents of Gaza was shattered by a surprise assault on Saturday morning by air, land and sea.

The attack began with a barrage of more than 2,000 rockets fired into Israel. Under the cover of the rockets, a large-scale, carefully coordinated, ground operation set out from Gaza and attacked more than 20 Israeli towns and army bases adjacent to the strip.

Israeli losses, estimated presently at more than 250 dead and as many as 1,500 wounded, are certain to increase in the coming hours and days.

Israel’s military reserves have commenced a massive mobilisation as aerial bombings of Hamas installations and command posts in Gaza are being carried out. More than 230 Palestinian casualties have been reported so far in Gaza, with 1,700 wounded.

Calculations behind the attack

As in the case of the Yom Kippur war, numerous analyses and investigations will be undertaken in the coming weeks, months and years on the intelligence, operational and political failures that allowed the Hamas attack to unfold. The assault was apparently initially undetected by Israel, and then for hours met with either insufficient or unprepared Israeli forces.

Similar to the 1973 war, the purposefully chosen timing of a Sabbath and the Jewish holiday of Sukkot provide initial, though very partial, clues to the breakdown.

Hamas’ strategic calculations in launching the attack are uncertain at this stage. However, the assured severity of Israel’s retaliation against the group – and as a consequence, the civilian population in Gaza – makes it likely that considerations beyond just tit-for-tat revenge were at play.

Read more:
Can the world stop Israel and Hamas from committing war crimes? 7 questions answered about international law

Kidnapping Israelis for prisoner swaps with Hamas militants jailed in Israel, for instance, has been among the most highly desired objectives of the group’s military operations in the past.

In 2011, a single Israel soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been held captive in Gaza since 2006, was exchanged for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. Among these prisoners was Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ current leader in Gaza, who had served 22 years in an Israeli jail.

The reports of dozens of Israelis being taken captive in this weekend’s assault – many of them civilians – suggest this may have been a central motive behind the attack. An unknown number of hostages held for hours by Hamas militants in two Israeli southern towns were later freed by Israeli special forces.

Another broader objective for Hamas may have been to undermine the ongoing negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia on an agreement to normalise relations between the kingdom and Israel.

Thwarting these talks would be a significant boon for Iran, a key backer of Hamas, and its allies. While Tehran has said it supports the attacks by Hamas against Israel, it remains uncertain at this point whether Iran or Hezbollah (the militant group in Lebanon that has a growing partnership with Hamas) would open additional fronts against Israel in the coming days.

Any escalation in the conflict from either Iran or Lebanon would be highly problematic for Israel. The same would apply if the war with Hamas further exacerbates the already high tensions and violent clashes between Israel and Palestinian militant groups in the West Bank.

What could happen next?

Named “Iron Swords,” Israel’s retaliatory offensive against Hamas in Gaza is likely to last a long time. The challenges it faces are massive.

Along with the need to restore the trust of the Israeli public and resurrect Israel’s smashed military deterrence against Hamas and other foes, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will likely have to deal with other complexities:

• the fate of potentially dozens of Israeli hostages
• the significantly elevated risks for Israel’s forces should a ground incursion be carried out
• and the threats of escalation on other fronts, including Lebanon, the West Bank, and mixed Jewish-Palestinian cities inside Israel.

International support for an aggressive operation could also become difficult to retain amid a mounting toll of civilian Palestinian casualties.

The current round of violence has barely started, but it could end up being the bloodiest in decades – perhaps since the war between Israel and the Palestinians in Lebanon during the 1980s.

As noted, Israelis will consider it critically important to reclaim their country’s military deterrence capabilities against Hamas, which in the eyes of many, may necessitate a military takeover of Gaza. This would bring more devastating outcomes for Gaza’s civilian population.

For many Palestinians, this weekend’s events offered Israelis a small taste of what their own lives have been like under decades of occupation. However, the early celebrations will likely soon turn into anger and frustration as the numbers of Palestinian civilian casualties will continue to rise. Violence begets violence.

In the short and medium terms, the trauma of Hamas’ surprise attack is bound to have momentous consequences for Israel’s domestic politics.

It’s still too early to assess the likely many long-term impacts of the attack on Israelis and their sense of security. But one thing is clear: the already challenging prospects for the building of trust between the Israeli and Palestinian peoples have just suffered a devastating blow.

Read more:
30 years after Arafat-Rabin handshake, clear flaws in Oslo Accords doomed peace talks to failure

In his 2022 memoir, Bibi: My Story, Netanyahu wrote about his decision during Israel’s “Pillar of Defense” operation against Hamas in 2012 to avoid an Israeli ground assault in Gaza.

Such an attack, he warned, could lead to many hundreds of Israeli Defence Force casualties and many thousands of Palestinian casualties – something he was adamantly against. He did authorise ground incursions on two other occasions (operations “Cast Lead” in 2008 and “Protective Edge” in 2014). But his cautious tendencies prevailed in other cases, at times, in the face of strong pressure.

Arguably, this weekend’s national trauma and the radical make-up of Netanyahu’s right-wing government will make it very difficult for him to show similar restraint in the coming days.

Eyal Mayroz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. After a shocking Hamas assault on Israel, both sides brace for the devastating fall-out – https://theconversation.com/after-a-shocking-hamas-assault-on-israel-both-sides-brace-for-the-devastating-fall-out-215230

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fan Yang, Research fellow at Melbourne Law School, the University of Melbourne and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society., The University of Melbourne

Some 1.4 million Australians are of Chinese ancestry, or about 5.5% of the population. Given the size of the community, it will be an important voting bloc in the upcoming referendum on a Voice to Parliament for First Nations people.

But while the government and the “yes” and “no” campaigns are translating some information into Chinese, it appears very little is gaining traction in the Chinese Australian online community.

According to our research, the Voice referendum has garnered limited attention on WeChat, the popular Chinese messaging app, compared to discussions on other issues, such as immigration, the economy and property prices.

As we draw closer to the referendum, we’ve also seen right-wing political rhetoric and misinformation come to dominate what little online discussion there has been.

Our research found the “no” campaign was resonating much more than “yes” on WeChat, particularly among conservative voices within the community. Among the 339 comments we collected and analysed, the vast majority (about 98.5%) leaned towards voting “no”, while just five comments unequivocally expressed support for the “yes” side.

Read more:
Friday essay: Australia may ban WeChat – but for many Chinese Australians, it’s their ‘lifeline’

Translated media reports

Our study used a tool called WeCapture to collect and archive public posts and comments on WeChat related to the referendum.

Between February and September, we collected more than 110 public posts, two short videos and 339 public comments in total. None of the posts had more than 20,000 views – showing how little the debate has resonated with Chinese Australians.

We were only able to analyse public WeChat accounts, as opposed to private discussions between individuals or in groups. As a result, commercial media accounts run by Chinese migrants, such as sydtoday, meltoday, AFNDaily, and melvlife, played a pivotal role in shaping these discussions.

Many of these posts were translated news reports on the Voice from the English-language media. These posts covered a broad range of topics, including explanations on the scope of the proposed Voice, analysis of Australian public sentiment about the Voice and reports on “yes” and “no” campaign rallies.

We found these media accounts sometimes editorialised the translated English sources to align with readers’ expectations and the accounts’ business imperatives. For instance, in the screengrab of a WeChat post below, the headline reads:

Breaking news! After 24 years, Australia has announced: an immediate mandatory nationwide referendum will be held. Everyone must participate. Australia is about to undergo significant changes.

This translation conveys a sense of emergency and ambiguity to entice WeChat users to click on the link.

Posts from the official groups

Other posts came from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), the Victorian Labor Party, the Yes Campaign Alliance and other content producers, also translated into Mandarin. These appeared on influential WeChat media accounts such as sydtoday and Mel_life.

The AEC posted a series of sponsored articles to explain the Voice and the voting procedure (as seen in the post below). The AEC posts were much more formal and official sounding than most public posts on WeChat.

The “yes” campaign has also embedded image banners within WeChat posts, such as the one below, authorised by Dean Parkin, director of the Yes Campaign Alliance.

And in a short video posted the Victorian Labor Party, Carina Garland, the MP for Chisholm, conducted an interview with Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus to explain the Voice referendum and its significance. The video, which features Chinese subtitles and is specifically targeting Chinese Australians, only received 20 likes and was shared just 25 times. It also got no comments from WeChat users.

Posts from ‘no’ campaigners

In our research, we found WeChat users who were leaning towards a “no” vote had many concerns, including:

• fears the Voice could somehow disempower the Chinese Australian community

• the perception taxes could increase due to Labor’s “leftist politics”

• skepticism towards the Albanese government

• fears the Voice could lead to “racial divide” and “apartheid” in Australia

• and the prevalence of conspiracy theories associated with white supremacy ideologies.

One account named YamiChew has published a series of “no” campaign videos. The profile says the owner of the account transitioned from a professional career in Beijing to an immigrant life in Melbourne.

The account underwent a notable transformation at the end of September, from posting videos of the family dog to advocating for the “no” campaign. Compared to most WeChat posts about the referendum, YamiChew’s first video gained significant traction on the platform, with over 10,000 reposts, 1,800 likes and more than 300 comments within 24 hours of its release.

The video listed four reasons to vote “no”, which included claims that have been dismissed elsewhere as misinformation, such as concerns over the Voice’s impact on Australia’s “constitutional integrity”, fears of “racial inequality” if the referendum succeeded, and claims it would lead to “Indigenous priviledge”.

Why countering misinformation matters

Migrants from diverse socio-cultural backgrounds possess varying levels of literacy regarding Indigenous affairs.

As a result, Australian public institutions need to craft messages that are not only linguistically accessible, but also adapted to the information consumption habits of migrant communities.

Read more:
More work to do: how Chinese-Australians perceive coverage of themselves and China in Australian media

The government also needs to take steps to address the amount of misinformation in the Chinese-language media and social media.

The government’s bill to curb the online spread of false and misleading information, for instance, does not include non-English-language platforms in its scope.

On WeChat, misinformation that is not directly linked to Beijing’s political interests tends to fall outside the scope of platform regulators.

This means it’s up to public institutions to counter misleading information. They can do this by working with local communities to provide credible information on all matters of public interest, not just during the referendum campaign.

Read more:
Australia’s media has been too white for too long. This is how to bring more diversity to newsrooms

The author would like to acknowledge Robbie Fordyce from Monash University and Luke Heemsbergen from Deakin University for their participation in the research project.

Fan Yang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘No’ campaign is dominating the Voice debate among Chinese Australians on WeChat: new research – https://theconversation.com/no-campaign-is-dominating-the-voice-debate-among-chinese-australians-on-wechat-new-research-214383

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Armstrong, Senior Lecturer in Special and Inclusive Education, RMIT University

The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability has shared its final report. In this series, we unpack what the commission’s 222 recommendations could mean for a more inclusive Australia.

The release of the disability royal commission’s final report ignited a public debate about the future of “special schools” and whether we can phase out segregation in education. During one radio discussion this week, an irate parent asked me:

But how can a mainstream school have a hydrotherapy pool like the one our local special school has?

The future of special schools is important and discussed in the report. But it’s not the main story here. In fact, focusing on specialist schools for students with disability misunderstands the report’s point and misses its major implications for all schools.

Read more:
Disability royal commissioners disagreed over phasing out ‘special schools’ – that leaves segregation on the table

What the report says

Most educational recommendations in the report aim to strengthen inclusion in mainstream “regular” schools and prevent them from undermining inclusion or dodging their legal responsibilities toward students with a disability.

The report recommends a “legal entitlement for students with disability to enrol in a local mainstream school”. Currently, some mainstream settings do not welcome such students and use gatekeeping practices. These may include persuading parents the school cannot meet their’s child’s needs or to informally prevent enrolment.

Gatekeeping means mainstream school is not an option for many parents, and explains why the number of special schools has risen across Australia over the past decade.

The report also recommends mainstream schools take early, preventative actions before suspending or excluding students who have a disability. It urges transparent processes, so parents understand decisions and how to appeal.

Read more:
Here’s why we need a disability rights act – not just a disability discrimination one

Exclusion from the mainstream

Rising numbers of students with disability enrolled in the mainstream sector have faced suspension and exclusion from school over the past decade, typically due to “problem behaviour”.

Expensive safety net programs known as Flexible Learning Options have become popular across Australia as an emergency policy reaction to this trend. They are intended to support students at risk or already disengaged from education.

In our research, my colleagues and I found that, in 2019, more than 70,000 Australian high-school-aged students were enrolled in flexible learning programs. This number had almost tripled since 2016 and students with disability are over-represented. Such programs exist outside the mainstream system and provide personalised learning using a variety of education providers. But concerns have been raised about the quality of provision.

A national organisation called School Can’t – a peer support community for parents and carers of students with school attendance difficulties – told a recent senate inquiry into school refusal about the growing numbers of children with a disability being home schooled. The organisation reported its membership had grown tenfold since 2019 to almost 10,000 and it had been overwhelmed by the volume of parents seeking support.

International research consistently shows the devastating psychological impacts exclusion from school creates for affected students and their families.

Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Greens Jordon Steele-John on the disability royal commission and Bill Shorten’s NDIS reforms

The bigger issue

In its report, the disability royal commission acknowledges that inclusion is failing in many mainstream settings.

Although split on some aspects of strategy, the commissioners detail progressive plans to invest in the skills and knowledge of the education workforce and steps to deliver greater inclusion in mainstream schools. For example, the report recommends we:

[…] strengthen initial teacher education in inclusive education and attract and retain people with disability and others with expertise in delivering inclusive education.

Establishing a national database to gather reliable information on “student experiences, school outcomes for students with disability and progress in addressing barriers to inclusive education practices” is another welcome recommendation. This will be vital to check whether the intended benefits are flowing down to more inclusion at classroom level.

But there has been scant public or media attention so far to the “elephant in the room”. That is the stressed state of today’s public education system.

Capacity is key

The big issue here is the capacity of our disintegrating public education system to adopt the report’s vision for higher-quality, inclusive mainstream public education. Gatekeeping and excessive use of suspensions and exclusion can be understood as predictable responses by schools under pressure.

That said, the report recommendations should be reframed as a powerful case for targeted educational reforms. With funding and investment, we can raise the quality of mainstream public education so it can include students with a disability.

In the name of greater inclusion, the disability royal commission’s proposed reforms represent a positive, visible investment in the whole of Australia’s public school system. The value of this contribution at this time of crisis cannot be underestimated. Well-funded inclusive education is better for everyone.

David Armstrong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We don’t need a hydrotherapy pool in every school, but we do need quality public education for all kids – https://theconversation.com/we-dont-need-a-hydrotherapy-pool-in-every-school-but-we-do-need-quality-public-education-for-all-kids-214716

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shane Keating, Senior Lecturer in Mathematics and Oceanography, UNSW Sydney

Earth’s ocean is incredibly vast. Some parts of it are so remote that the nearest human habitation is the International Space Station.

As the world warms, what happens in the ocean – and what happens to the ocean – will be vital to all our lives. But to monitor what’s happening in remote waters, we need to study the ocean from space.

Late last year, NASA and CNES, the French space agency, launched a satellite that promises to give scientists a far better view than ever before of the ocean’s surface. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will reveal ocean currents that play a crucial role in the weather and climate.

To make the most of the satellite observations, we need to compare them with measurements made at surface level. That is why we are heading out to sea on the state-of-the-art CSIRO research vessel RV Investigator to gather essential ocean data under the satellite’s path as it orbits Earth.

Current affairs

Climate change is disrupting the global network of currents that connect the oceans. Researchers have detected a slowdown of the deep “overturning circulation” that carries carbon, heat, oxygen and nutrients from Antarctica around the globe. Meanwhile, at the surface, ocean currents are becoming more energetic.

We have also seen dramatic changes in fast, narrow rivers of seawater called western boundary currents, such as the Gulf Stream and the East Australian Current.

Read more:
Shifting ocean currents are pushing more and more heat into the Southern Hemisphere’s cooler waters

These currents funnel heat from the tropics towards the poles, and in recent decades they have become hotspots for ocean warming. In the Southern Hemisphere, they are warming two to three times faster than the global average.

As these currents destabilise, they alter how heat is distributed throughout the ocean. This in turn will cause major changes in local weather and marine ecosystems that may impact the lives of millions of people.

Playground physics

The SWOT satellite mission will give researchers a powerful new tool to monitor changes in ocean currents by using accurate satellite measurements of the sea surface – plus a little bit of playground physics.

The satellite carries an instrument that will map variations in the height of the sea surface in unprecedented detail. These variations might be less than a metre in height over horizontal distances of hundreds of kilometres. But oceanographers can use the measurements to estimate ocean currents flowing underneath.

Small variations in the height of the sea surface create horizontal pressure differences that try to push water away from areas of high sea level and towards areas of low sea level. That pressure difference is balanced by the Coriolis force, which gently deflects ocean currents to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere.

You can experience the Coriolis force at the playground. Step onto a merry-go-round and ask a friend to stand on the opposite side from you. As you start spinning, toss a ball to your friend. You will notice that the ball appears to be deflected away from the direction of rotation.

In reality, the ball has moved in a straight line; your friend has simply moved away from where you were aiming. But, to you both, the ball seems to have been deflected by an invisible “pseudo-force” – the Coriolis force.

Now imagine the merry-go-round is Earth, and the ball is an ocean current. The Coriolis deflection is enough to balance pressure differences across hundreds of kilometres and causes seawater to flow in ocean currents.

Science at sea

By carefully measuring the height of the sea surface and using our knowledge of the Coriolis force, oceanographers will be able to use data from NASA’s satellite to reveal ocean currents in greater detail than ever before. But to make sense of that data, researchers need to compare satellite measurements with observations made down here on Earth.

That’s why we are leading a voyage of more than 60 scientists, support staff and crew aboard the RV Investigator, Australia’s national flagship for blue water ocean research.

Our 24-day voyage will study ocean dynamics off Australia’s southeast coast using the Investigator’s world-class scientific equipment, including satellite-tracked floating buoys and drifters that will be used to measure the real-time movement of currents at the ocean surface.

Read more:
Explainer: the RV Investigator’s role in marine science

The voyage is part of a huge collaboration by scientists around the world to gather observational data under the satellite’s path as it orbits Earth. This data will help validate satellite measurements and improve weather forecasts, including those from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, and assist with climate risk assessment and prediction.

We hope to better understand how our oceans are changing using what we observe in space, at sea — and in the playground.

This research is supported by a grant of sea time on RV Investigator from the CSIRO Marine National Facility.

You can follow our voyage on Twitter/X using the hashtag #RVInvestigator.

Shane Keating receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Moninya Roughan receives funding from Australian Research Council, Australia’s Marine National Facility, and the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Scheme

– ref. Climate change is disrupting ocean currents. We’re using satellites and ships to understand how – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-disrupting-ocean-currents-were-using-satellites-and-ships-to-understand-how-214962

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Hooker, Senior Lecturer and Coordinator, Health and Medical Humanities, University of Sydney

After three wet years, bushfire season has begun again. We have been warned this season could be a bad one.

With the last few years of epic rain, more fuel has grown to burn in what is predicted to be a hot, dry summer. Disaster events like bushfires are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity as the climate changes. Disasters will cascade and overlap – there may be no time to recover between one disaster and the next.

The Voice to Parliament has the potential to be an effective way to adapt to this riskier future. It will enable Aboriginal communities to better undertake the urgent tasks of planning and disaster preparation.

Importantly, all Australians could benefit from the Voice advising on strategies for how Australia can prepare for, and survive, disasters.

Read more:
The Voice to Parliament explained

First Nations people know how to adapt to changing climates

First Nations people around the world have experience in successfully adapting to changing climates, reaching back tens of thousands of years.

Some Australians are already turning to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge of Country to prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the impacts of natural hazards. First Nations strategies – from “cool burn” bushfire hazard reduction such as the world leading Fire to Flourish program, to waterway management – can prevent disasters, or reduce their scale.

There’s also the example of Northern Australia’s satellite bushfire management program developed in collaboration with Traditional Owners.

The Voice has the potential to provide the means for the Australian government to learn from this expertise. This could enable all Australians to see and benefit from the extraordinary strengths in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities.

Natural disasters require community-supported responses

Australia’s National Principles for Disaster Recovery emphasise that disaster management must be community-based.

Disaster management is not effective when government disaster responses do not consider local knowledge. The effect is often worsened when these responses also lack understanding of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures and ways of working.

One example of this was during the Lismore floods. Local Indigenous communities argued that a failure to include Aboriginal knowledge in the planning and response to the floods resulted in residents being left stranded on rooftops and surviving without water and electricity for days. Communities have since called for more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander first responders.

Disaster events in Australia can impact Indigenous people disproportionately. Poor housing, lack of access to resources and a higher prevalence of ill health render First Nations peoples more likely to be negatively impacted by heatwaves, floods and fires. This also means fewer resources and infrastructure to help these communities recover from these disasters after they occur.

Lack of external support has often led to First Nations communities leading disaster response for themselves. In Lismore, support and help for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families came from the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community itself. Despite significant flood damage to their building, The Koori Mail – a Lismore-produced local newspaper – organised food, material needs and social support to the local Koori (Aboriginal) community.

Larrakia, Tiwi, Yolŋu and Desert people in the Northern Territory have similar stories of working together. In the past they have coordinated with friends and family to care for the young, sick and elderly in emergency events such as cyclones and bushfires.

Read more:
Disastrous floods in WA – why were we not prepared?

All Australians need to learn from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander disaster management

In every disaster there are calls to “build back better” – that is, to reimagine how we live and how we can live well together. First Nations communities globally do this work every day. Although First Nations people are only around 6% of the world’s population, their respective lands house 80% of the world’s biodiversity.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people provide models for how to live differently, in ways that care for Country and prevent climate change and its disasters.

The Voice is crucial for enabling Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities to prepare for, respond to and remain resilient to the disasters that lie ahead of all of us. It also has the potential to enrich the lives of all Australians as we imagine a different, more caring, more equal future through each disaster, together.

As others have noted, the Voice could provide cost-efficient policy solutions to Indigenous affairs. This could also be the case for effective disaster planning and responses.

We have seen First Nations communities successfully advise on how to look after Country, and this includes planning for a hazardous future. The Voice could provide this on a national scale.

What we learn about effective community-led disaster management in the process will benefit us all.

Claire Hooker is affiliated with The Arts Health Network NSW/ACT. She partners with the Creative Recovery Network.

Michelle Dickson receives funding from NH&MRC and the MRFF research funding schemes.

– ref. The Voice could advise on how to address natural disasters like bushfires – https://theconversation.com/the-voice-could-advise-on-how-to-address-natural-disasters-like-bushfires-214556

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cassandra Mudgway, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Canterbury

A female candidate slapped after a public debate, another whose home was vandalised, a man trespassed for entering the same house, shouts and jeers directed at another woman candidate for using te reo Māori – the 2023 election has certainly had its uglier moments.

But reports of abuse, threats and violence on the campaign trail shouldn’t surprise anyone. Over the past five years, female politicians have consistently spoken about the often violent and sexist harassment they receive online.

A recent United Nations study examining the experiences of female journalists established a clear link between online and real-world violence, particularly stalking. Another study found female politicians and journalists in Britain and the United States are abused on Twitter (now X) every 30 seconds.

This is backed up by local politicians’ experiences. Green Party MPs Marama Davidson and Golriz Ghahraman have both spoken about the serious abuse they receive online. Ghahraman needed a security escort following a series of death threats.

In 2021, Christchurch city councillor Sara Templeton and other female leaders, including mayor Lianne Dalziel and Labour MPs Sarah Pallet and Megan Woods, were subjected to a relentless campaign of online harassment and increasingly gendered abuse.

Similar experiences have been shared by National MPs Nicola Willis and Paula Bennett . Former prime minister Jacinda Ardern also had to tolerate high levels of online vitriol. What has happened during the election campaign is part of a clear trend.

Normalised gender-based violence

The often misogynistic nature of online abuse, from sexist name-calling to threats of rape and death, makes it a form of gender-based violence . And the New Zealand government has made international and domestic commitments to create a safe political environment for women.

But this would require the development of a concrete plan to address online violence – something most political parties have been largely silent about during the election campaign.

Read more:
Online abuse could drive women out of political life – the time to act is now

And it’s not a new issue. The independent review into bullying and harassment in parliament was released in 2019. It found online harassment and abuse of MPs by members of the public, including sexist and violent threats, was increasingly common and even accepted as par for the course.

Since then, there have been significant improvements to combat workplace bullying, but essentially nothing has been done about online abuse.

This is especially concerning given the way violent online behaviour may embolden some people to act out such behaviours in real life.

A weak legal framework

That said, there are some rules governing online abuse. The current legal framework includes the Harmful Digital Communications Act, which was designed to address harmful online communication such as cyberbullying, harassment and threats. It established legal mechanisms for reporting and prosecuting harmful digital content.

But the law has two key weaknesses when it comes to gender-based violence.

Firstly, to prove a criminal offence, the harmful content must cause “serious emotional distress” to the victim. This may be difficult to prove from a single comment from a single person, because the real harm lies in the barrage of abusive comments from numerous people all at once.

Read more:
How misogyny, narcissism and a desperate need for power make men abuse women online

It must also be proved that the content would cause “serious emotional distress” to an “ordinary reasonable person”. So the law does not fully consider the gendered nature of online abuse, and may not account for the specific ways in which women are targeted.

Secondly, the normalisation of online abuse against female politicians means they often do not report the abuse. This leaves perpetrators to continue with impunity. Overall, the law seems to have failed to deter people from engaging in online gender-based violence.

In turn, this puts New Zealand offside with its responsibilities as a signatory to important United Nations human rights conventions. Online abuse violates women’s right to be free from violence and the right of women to participate in political and public life.

Public education needed

Although some political leaders have expressed deep concern about online abuse in the past, the issue is not currently a priority for any major party. The risk is that women will simply leave the political arena, something already observed overseas.

Whichever party or coalition forms the next government should act urgently to address gender-based violence, both online and offline. It needs to review the legal framework to allow better protection for women, and find ways to enlist the general public’s support in making such abuse socially unacceptable.

This will require a comprehensive plan involving public education, schools, law enforcement, the judiciary and parliamentarians. But without more urgent action, the likelihood of online violence spilling over into the real world only increases.

Cassandra Mudgway does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Campaign trail threats and abuse reinforce the need to protect NZ’s women politicians – before they quit for good – https://theconversation.com/campaign-trail-threats-and-abuse-reinforce-the-need-to-protect-nzs-women-politicians-before-they-quit-for-good-214828

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of Melbourne

The world is very warm right now. We’re not only seeing record temperatures, but the records are being broken by record-wide margins.

Take the preliminary September global-average temperature anomaly of 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, for example. It’s an incredible 0.5°C above the previous record.

So why is the world so incredibly hot right now? And what does it mean for keeping our Paris Agreement targets?

Here are six contributing factors – with climate change the main reason temperatures are so high.

1. El Niño

One reason for the exceptional heat is we are in a significant El Niño that is still strengthening. During El Niño we see warming of the surface ocean over much of the tropical Pacific. This warming, and the effects of El Niño in other parts of the world, raises global average temperatures by about 0.1 to 0.2°C.

Read more:
Explainer: El Niño and La Niña

Taking into account the fact we’ve just come out of a triple La Niña, which cools global average temperatures slightly, and the fact this is the first major El Niño in eight years, it’s not too surprising we’re seeing unusually high temperatures at the moment.

Still, El Niño alone isn’t enough to explain the crazily high temperatures the world is experiencing.

2. Falling pollution

Air pollution from human activities cools the planet and has offset some of the warming caused by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. There have been efforts to reduce this pollution – since 2020 there has been an international agreement to reduce sulphur dioxide emissions from the global shipping industry.

It has been speculated this cleaner air has contributed to the recent heat, particularly over the record-warm north Atlantic and Pacific regions with high shipping traffic.

It’s likely this is contributing to the extreme high global temperatures – but only on the order of hundredths of a degree. Recent analysis suggests the effect of the 2020 shipping agreement is about an extra 0.05°C warming by 2050.

3. Increasing solar activity

While falling pollution levels mean more of the Sun’s energy reaches Earth’s surface, the amount of the energy the Sun emits is itself variable. There are different solar cycles, but an 11-year cycle is the most relevant one to today’s climate.

The Sun is becoming more active from a minimum in late 2019. This is also contributing a small amount to the spike in global temperatures. Overall, increasing solar activity is contributing only hundredths of a degree at most to the recent global heat.

Read more:
This solar cycle, the sun’s activity is more powerful and surprising than predicted

4. Water vapour from Hunga Tonga eruption

On January 15 2022 the underwater Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcano erupted in the South Pacific Ocean, sending large amounts of water vapour high up into the upper atmosphere. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, so increasing its concentration in the atmosphere in this way does intensify the greenhouse effect.

Even though the eruption happened almost two years ago, it’s still having a small warming effect on the planet. However, as with the reduced pollution and increasing solar activity, we’re talking about hundredths of a degree.

5. Bad luck

We see variability in global temperatures from one year to the next even without factors like El Niño or major changes in pollution. Part of the reason this September was so extreme was likely due to weather systems being in the right place to heat the land surface.

When we have persistent high-pressure systems over land regions, as seen recently over places like western Europe and Australia, we see local temperatures rise and the conditions for unseasonable heat.

As water requires more energy to warm and the ocean moves around, we don’t see the same quick response in temperatures over the seas when we have high-pressure systems.

The positioning of weather systems warming up many land areas coupled with persistent ocean heat is likely a contributor to the global-average heat too.

6. Climate change

By far the biggest contributor to the overall +1.7°C global temperature anomaly is human-caused climate change. Overall, humanity’s effect on the climate has been a global warming of about 1.2°C.

The record-high rate of greenhouse gas emissions means we should expect global warming to accelerate too.

While humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions explain the trend seen in September temperatures over many decades, they don’t really explain the big difference from last September (when the greenhouse effect was almost as strong as it is today) and September 2023.

Much of the difference between this year and last comes back to the switch from La Niña to El Niño, and the right weather systems in the right place at the right time.

The upshot: we need to accelerate climate action

September 2023 shows that with a combination of climate change and other factors aligning we can see alarmingly high temperatures.

These anomalies may appear to be above the 1.5°C global warming level referred to in the Paris Agreement, but that’s about keeping long-term global warming to low levels and not individual months of heat.

But we are seeing the effects of climate change unfolding more and more clearly.

The most vulnerable are suffering the biggest impacts as wealthier nations continue to emit the largest proportion of greenhouse gases. Humanity must accelerate the path to net zero to prevent more record-shattering global temperatures and damaging extreme events.

Read more:
Net zero by 2050? Too late. Australia must aim for 2035

Andrew King receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program.

– ref. 6 reasons why global temperatures are spiking right now – https://theconversation.com/6-reasons-why-global-temperatures-are-spiking-right-now-215140

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability has shared its final report. In this series, we unpack what the commission’s 222 recommendations could mean for a more inclusive Australia.

The federal government last week released the report of the Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability, which painted a confronting picture and recorded the calls of disabled people “for a more inclusive Australia”.

The commission made more than 220 recommendations, and was conducted at a cost to the taxpayer of $600 million. But commissioners split on the key issues of special schools and group housing for people with disabilities, causing immediate controversy.

In this podcast, the Greens spokesman on disability, Jordon Steele-John, who campaigned for the royal commission, joins The Conversation to discuss the report, and also to canvass the NDIS, which is under review in another inquiry.

Steele-John feels “immense pride” in the disabled community for their contribution to the royal commission report, and sees it as a milestone:

This is the work of so many people who have themselves experienced violence, abuse, exploitation and neglect, who campaigned for decades to see this investigation be undertaken […] It’s a milestone for the Australian disability community who have come together in the aftermath of this report to say ‘now is the time to end segregation and to end ableism in Australian government policy’.

Steele-John opposes separating disabled people into special schools and group homes, so he backs those commissioners who want a phase-out. But he believes the proposed timelines are unnacceptably long.

They’ve suggested that we wait until 2050. In segregated education, for instance, that would mean that a disabled child born today would be likely to see their child educated in a segregated setting. That’s not acceptable.

They’ve also recommended that we take a decade to reach the point at which a disabled person is paid the same as a non-disabled person in the workplace. That’s unacceptable, but I think it is really important that we really grapple with and acknowledge the reality of the damage that segregation does to people. It leads to loneliness and isolation, and it exposes them to the violence, abuse and neglect that the recommendations in the report found.

While Steele-John has seen an improvement in the NDIS since Labor won the election, he has criticisms.

My quite critical observation of the government is that they have, I think, failed to push back on and have in many ways bought into a conversation about the NDIS, which is very one sided, focusing on its financial implications on the overall federal budget and minimising the good that it does in people’s lives; while point blank refusing to commission new research or investigations into the positive economic impact of a scheme who, the last time anybody checked, [the investment] actually returned $2.25 for every dollar that was invested in it.

So if you combine that with the fact that the minister’s made a number of comments and their colleagues have made a number of comments about people with psychosocial disabilities and other disabilities and there being too many of them on the scheme, I think that’s really concerning to me and really concerned to the disability community more broadly.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Greens Jordon Steele-John on the disability royal commission and Bill Shorten’s NDIS reforms – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-greens-jordon-steele-john-on-the-disability-royal-commission-and-bill-shortens-ndis-reforms-215072

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Francesco Paolucci, Professor of Health Economics, University of Bologna, University of Newcastle

The federal government has, for a long time, encouraged Australians to get private health insurance, in an attempt to reduce the financial burden on the public health system.

To make private health insurance more attractive, the government has a strategy of carrots and sticks. Low-income and older people receive subsidies through “premium rebates”. High-income earners without the right policy face the Medicare Levy Surcharge, ranging from 1 to 1.5% of their taxable income.

The effectiveness of these subsidies is regularly debated, with questions about whether the A$6.7 billion of taxpayer money that subsidises private health insurance premiums could be better spent on Medicare or directly financing hospitals.

We set out to answer this question: do the savings from increased participation in private health insurance outweigh the costs the government incurs by subsidising private health insurance rebates?

Our analysis, which was commissioned and funded by the Department of Health and Aged Care, found large benefits to the government, especially when older people sign up for private insurance. On average, the government saves about $554 for each person it helps with these subsidies a year.

But rebates can be better targeted for Australians who are more likely to need and use health services.

How did we work this out?

To assess if the money spent on subsidising private health insurance pays off, we examined both the costs (from the premium rebate subsidies and the forgone tax from the Medicare Levy Surcharge) and the savings.

To calculate the savings we looked at how much money the government would spend if these people didn’t have private health insurance and used the public health system instead of the private system. We call this the “offset”.

This is a key metric for the success of the carrot and sticks, as it will be able to tell us the health-care costs saved by the government when someone has private insurance.

Using private health insurance spending data from 2019, we made assumptions that one day in a private hospital costs equal to one day in a public hospital, based on findings from the Productivity Commission.

We also factored in the government’s 75% Medicare Benefits Schedule fee contribution, and higher prices for prostheses (for hip replacements and other implants) in the private system.

Read more:
We can cut private health insurance costs by fixing how we pay for hip replacements and other implants

On average, we found that private health insurance offsets public health-care costs by about $1,400 per person, with greater savings for older people than younger people, reaching $4,000 for those aged 75 and above.

To answer if the savings from private insurance take-up outweighs the costs incurred, we needed to take into account what the government spends to subsidise insurance.

We used the standard premium rebate percentages where a person aged 70 or above earning up to $90,000 attracts a 32.812% rebate, while a person aged under 65 making $105,001–$140,000 would receive a 8.202% rebate.

With an average annual private health insurance premium of $2,300, this would mean the government incurs costs ranging from $755 to $189.

As people who enrol in private insurance don’t have to pay the Medicare Levy Surcharge, which helps fund the public health system, we found that the forgone tax amounts range between $970 and $2,400 for single individuals subject to the penalty.

Combining the costs (from the premium rebate subsidies and the forgone tax from the Medicare Levy Surcharge), and subtracting the savings (the offsets), is how we find that the subsidies are a good financial deal for the government. The subsidies are less than the cost offset by about $554 per person who has private health insurance.

Is there room for improvement?

This raises a question: what if we could change these subsidies based on who costs more to provide health care for and who saves the government more money? As our findings reveal that some groups save the government more money than their subsidies cost, what should we do with the subsidies? If we increase their subsidies, it costs taxpayers more – unless more of them switch to private health insurance.

For instance, an individual aged 75+ earning $105,001 to $140,000 receives $1,877 in subsidies and offsets $5,268 in public health spending, saving the government $3,391. Given the roughly 6,000 people in this age group currently in private health insurance, only two additional enrolments would make it budget-neutral.

Read more:
Private health insurance is set for a shake-up. But asking people to pay more for policies they don’t want isn’t the answer

How can the savings be used?

A better way to subsidise private health insurance is to give extra subsidies to people who are sicker and need more medical care. These are known as “risk-adjusted subsidies”.

A risk-adjusted subsidy would be based on a person’s characteristics such as their age, gender, income, where they live and their health history (such as prior hospitalisations, or use of services). These are people who need private health insurance the most, and also would save the government the most money by having private insurance.

This subsidy could be computed by a formula that uses individual-level spending to figure out how much health care the person is likely to need and how much it’s expected to cost.

Existing work in Australia has shown how this can be developed, while countries such as the Netherlands, Germany, the United States and Switzerland show such a system is feasible.

The Australian health system, and private health insurance regulation in particular, is set for a shake-up, with the Department of Health and Aged Care seeking input on its options. Our research can help inform a path forward.

Read more:
Who really benefits from private health insurance rebates? Not people who need cover the most

Francesco Paolucci has received funding from Horizon 2020, the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Medical Research Future Fund, the Australian Research Council, and The Department of Health and Aged Care.

Josefa Henriquez has received funding from the Department of Health and Aged Care.

– ref. People with private health insurance save the government $550 a year, on average – https://theconversation.com/people-with-private-health-insurance-save-the-government-550-a-year-on-average-212787

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathleen Openshaw, Lecturer in School of Social Sciences, Western Sydney University

A special UN working group this week tabled its first-ever report on the experiences of people of African descent in Australia to the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva.

The report documents what people of African descent living in Australia already know: Australia has a racism problem.

In fact, the UN’s Working Group of Experts on People of African Descent said in a press release at the end of their visit that people of African descent in Australia are living “under siege of racism”.

The new report says people of African descent experience racism in many key areas of life, including health, education and employment. It also highlighted the use of racialised hate speech in political rhetoric, racial profiling in law enforcement, and the highly racialised nature of Australia’s immigration policies. In one section, the report said:

Some refugees of African descent expressed surprise that settlement was less of a protection tool, and more of a pathway to prison for their communities, stating, “in Africa, we knew what was killing us.”

Read more:
Growing Up African in Australia: racism, resilience and the right to belong

What the working group found

At the invitation of the Australian government, the working group visited Australia for the first time in December last year.

The group’s task was to evaluate the human rights situation of people of African descent living in Australia. It collected information on racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and intolerance during visits to Canberra, Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney. It also met with various arms of government (including senior officials of the federal government, the Australian Border Force and Australian Federal Police), non-government stakeholders, academics and human rights defenders.

The working group, supported by the African Australian Advocacy Centre, also facilitated public consultations across Australia where it heard from individuals and community leaders. And it received formal written submissions during and after the visit.

In its report, the UN working group called attention to how the legacies of British colonisation and the White Australia policy still continue to have harmful impacts on Black people of African descent living in contemporary Australia.

In reference to a 2007 assertion by then-Immigration Minister Kevin Andrews that African refugees fail to integrate, the report noted:

This unsupported statement was never retracted nor repaired, even by subsequent governments. It lives on in the minds of people of African descent who see themselves as contributors to Australia and as African-Australian.

The report also observed the politicised association of youth of African descent with “African gangs” and criminality. It revealed their experiences of being racially profiled and surveilled by law enforcement.

Across Australia, young people also reported experiencing racism and cultural denial at university. Children reported similar experiences at school, where they are not presented with positive images of themselves. In fact, many reported being ostracised, subjected to racial slurs and bullied by both classmates and teachers. Their complaints often go unaddressed.

One student told the working group about an incident at school when a football labelled with racial and misogynistic slurs was thrown at her and other Black students in maths class. She said:

Essentially, we have all seen the slow response. We have seen the staff take little to no relevant action – believe it or not, sometimes they do not play by the rules. We have felt lost. Emotionally bruised.

The working group noted children of African descent often feel there are “no safe spaces” for them to grow up Black in Australian society.

Scholars Virginia Mapedzahama and Kwamena Kwansah-Aidoo have previously written about the burden experienced by people of African descent with black skin living in Australia.

Mapedzahama and Kwansah-Aidoo write that the main issue is not people’s dark skin, but rather how it marks them as inferior, problematic and not belonging in a predominantly white space.

This can result in the diversity of Black Africans being flattened and their presence in Australia being seen in negative terms. Australian leaders have a particular responsibility not to contribute to such deficit-based portrayals of people of African descent.

Read more:
Trauma, racism and unrealistic expectations mean African refugees are less likely to get into Australian unis

Charting a path forward

The working group’s report makes for difficult reading.

It shows the many compounding ways racism hinders the ability of people of African descents to fully participate in Australian society.

It also draws attention to the fact many felt their experiences of racism had been denied, minimised or ignored.

The report provides 27 recommendations to help guide the Australian government’s future actions to address the working group’s concerns. These include:

• people of African descent should be meaningfully included in all decisions that impact their lives

• narratives that feed a “culture of denial” of anti-Black racism should be confronted

• and that the same care and commitment should be devoted to addressing systemic racism in Australian institutions that the government demonstrated in implementing the White Australia policy historically.

Although Australia has much to do, the UN report acknowledges the work the government has already done to guarantee the human rights of people of African descent. This includes the 2012 establishment of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Human Rights and the work of the Australian Human Rights Commission.

The report also welcomed the federal government’s willingness to engage in the process and take action.

Australia now has the opportunity to take on board the report’s recommendations. Doing so will bring us closer to empowering people of African descent to contribute to – and benefit more fully from – Australia’s prosperity.

The author would like to acknowledge and thank Noël Zihabamwe, chairperson of the African Australian Advocacy Centre, for his contributions to this article.

The author has an ongoing research partnership with the African Australian Advocacy Centre (AAAC). The author is not a AAAC board member and maintains her academic independence.

– ref. ‘No safe space in society’: new UN report reveals the extent of systemic racism faced by people of African descent in Australia – https://theconversation.com/no-safe-space-in-society-new-un-report-reveals-the-extent-of-systemic-racism-faced-by-people-of-african-descent-in-australia-213365

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Stern, Professor of Data Science, Bond University

In 2020, Oxford-based philosopher Toby Ord published a book called The Precipice about the risk of human extinction. He put the chances of “existential catastrophe” for our species during the next century at one in six.

It’s quite a specific number, and an alarming one. The claim drew headlines at the time, and has been influential since – most recently brought up by Australian politician Andrew Leigh in a speech in Melbourne.

It’s hard to disagree with the idea we face troubling prospects over the coming decades, from climate change, nuclear weapons and bio-engineered pathogens (all big issues in my view), to rogue AI and large asteroids (which I would see as less concerning).

But what about that number? Where does it come from? And what does it really mean?

Coin flips and weather forecasts

To answer those questions, we have to answer another first: what is probability?

The most traditional view of probability is called frequentism, and derives its name from its heritage in games of dice and cards. On this view, we know there is a one in six chance a fair die will come up with a three (for example) by observing the frequency of threes in a large number of rolls.

Or consider the more complicated case of weather forecasts. What does it mean when a weatherperson tells us there is a one in six (or 17%) chance of rain tomorrow?

Read more:
The science of weather forecasting: what it takes and why it’s so hard to get right

It’s hard to believe the weatherperson means us to imagine a large collection of “tomorrows”, of which some proportion will experience precipitation. Instead, we need to look at a large number of such predictions and see what happened after them.

If the forecaster is good at their job, we should see that when they said “one in six chance of rain tomorrow”, it did in fact rain on the following day one time in every six.

So, traditional probability depends on observations and procedure. To calculate it, we need to have a collection of repeated events on which to base our estimate.

Can we learn from the Moon?

So what does this mean for the probability of human extinction? Well, such an event would be a one-off: after it happened, there would be no room for repeats.

Instead, we might find some parallel events to learn from. Indeed, in Ord’s book, he discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can potentially be examined in light of a history.

For example, we can estimate the chances of an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth by examining how many such space rocks have hit the Moon over its history. A French scientist named Jean-Marc Salotti did this in 2022, calculating the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century at around one in 300 million.

Of course, such an estimate is fraught with uncertainty, but it is backed by something approaching an appropriate frequency calculation. Ord, by contrast, estimates the risk of extinction by asteroid at one in a million, though he does note a considerable degree of uncertainty.

A ranking system for outcomes

There is another way to think about probability, called Bayesianism after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It focuses less on events themselves and more on what we know, expect and believe about them.

In very simple terms, we can say Bayesians see probabilities as a kind of ranking system. In this view, the specific number attached to a probability shouldn’t be taken directly, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand which outcomes are more and less likely.

Read more:
Bayes’ Theorem: the maths tool we probably use every day, but what is it?

Ord’s book, for example, contains a table of potential extinction events and his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these values as relative ranks. Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand), and both are far less likely than extinction from what he calls “unaligned artificial intelligence” (one in ten).

The difficulty here is that initial estimates of Bayesian probabilities (often called “priors”) are rather subjective (for instance, I would rank the chance of AI-based extinction much lower). Traditional Bayesian reasoning moves from “priors” to “posteriors” by again incorporating observational evidence of relevant outcomes to “update” probability values.

And once again, outcomes relevant to the probability of human extinction are thin on the ground.

Subjective estimates

There are two ways to think about the accuracy and usefulness of probability calculations: calibration and discrimination.

Calibration is the correctness of the actual values of the probabilities. We can’t determine this without appropriate observational information. Discrimination, on the other hand, simply refers to the relative rankings.

Read more:
Longtermism – why the million-year philosophy can’t be ignored

We don’t have a basis to think Ord’s values are properly calibrated. Of course, this is not likely to be his intent. He himself indicates they are mostly designed to give “order of magnitude” indications.

Even so, without any related observational confirmation, most of these estimates simply remain in the subjective domain of prior probabilities.

Not well calibrated – but perhaps still useful

So what are we to make of “one in six”? Experience suggests most people have a less than perfect understanding of probability (as evidenced by, among other things, the ongoing volume of lottery ticket sales). In this environment, if you’re making an argument in public, an estimate of “probability” doesn’t necessarily need to be well calibrated – it just needs to have the right sort of psychological impact.

From this perspective, I’d say “one in six” fits the bill nicely. “One in 100” might feel small enough to ignore, while “one in three” might drive panic or be dismissed as apocalyptic raving.

As a person concerned about the future, I hope risks like climate change and nuclear proliferation get the attention they deserve. But as a data scientist, I hope the careless use of probability gets left by the wayside and is replaced by widespread education on its true meaning and appropriate usage.

Read more:
433 people win a lottery jackpot – impossible? Probability and psychology suggest it’s more likely than you’d think

Steven Stern does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is there really a 1 in 6 chance of human extinction this century? – https://theconversation.com/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction-this-century-215054

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Abby Foster, Allied Health Research Advisor, Monash Health; Adjunct senior lecturer, La Trobe University; Adjunct research fellow, School of Primary & Allied Health Care, Monash University

The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability has shared its final report. In this series, we unpack what the commission’s 222 recommendations could mean for a more inclusive Australia.

With the release of the disability royal commission’s final report, the harrowing treatment of people with disabilities in Australia has been starkly displayed.

Just prior to the report’s release, media reports about abuse and neglect prompted National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) commissioner Tracy Mackey to say anyone on the scheme who is concerned about the care they’re receiving and doesn’t have someone to advocate for them should get in touch with the scheme’s quality and safety commission.

But this fails to acknowledge the systemic barriers people with communication disability face. For many, picking up the phone or completing an online form without support is not possible.

Communication is a human right

As part of the United Nations’ Declaration of Human Rights, everyone has the “right to freedom of opinion and expression”.

Acknowledging this, the disability royal commission made specific recommendations around enabling autonomy and access through “communication access”. Acknowledging that failure to do so can lead to poor health, education, employment and justice outcomes, with increased risk of harm during emergencies and natural disasters.

Communication access is necessary for everyone in society, but especially for the 1.2 million Australians who live with a communication disability.

Read more:
Here’s why we need a disability rights act – not just a disability discrimination one

But what does ‘communication access’ mean?

Communication is enormously diverse. We use spoken, written and sign language, gesture, pictorial and digital forms, facial expression, vocalisation, and physical expression to convey meaning. Through these, we can communicate our needs, thoughts and concerns.

Critically, the success of any communicative attempt requires the communication form to be acknowledged, valued and supported. Our environment has a profound impact on how successful communication is – irrespective of a person’s abilities or impairments.

Over the last 40 years we have witnessed a significant shift in attitudes towards people with disability in Australia. There is now legal entitlement for “people with disability to exercise choice and control”.

An independent review of the NDIS is due to report by the end of this month with pressure on costs and growth to ensure sustainability. But enabling people to communicate and exercise choice demands we design and resource accessible communication environments.

What’s it like to live with a communication disability?

Every day, people experience barriers to receiving and sharing information. These barriers can affect how they engage in meaningful interactions and how safe they feel. Inadequate communication accommodations can lead to difficulties accessing health care, using public transport, even ordering a coffee.

The disability royal commission exposed failures that have caused immense harm. The agency of people living with communication disability has not been respected, with devastating consequences.

Communication barriers exist within the context of high rates of abuse, violence and deprivation of basic needs, including food, shelter, or assistive aids. These rates are almost double those reported for people living without disability.

Read more:
The disability royal commission heard horrific stories of harm – now we must move towards repair

What is communication access?

Communication access occurs when everyone can meaningfully access information and get their message across. The commission called it “a critical safeguard against violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation”.

Yet common approaches to communication accessibility – including those used by government bodies such as the National Disability Insurance Agency (which administers the NDIS) – have limited value.

The commonly applied Easy Read format – which combines text with layout and imagery to explain information – for example, lacks standardised design principles. It is only useful for supporting specific groups.

Universal design principles go someway in supporting agency for people with communication disability. These principles aim to recognise, value and accommodate a broad range of users of specific products or environments. But tailored attention to individual communicative requirements is essential too.

Read more:
Banning straws might be good for the planet – but bad for people with disability or swallowing problems. What is ‘eco-ableism’?

What should happen next?

There have been calls to enhance communication access for many years. While the commission’s recommendations are an important step, the real challenge lies ahead.

The government taskforce charged with acting on the commission’s recommendations should begin by acknowledging the expertise of people with communicative disability.

Co-design is a core tenet of the NDIS; however, people with communication disabilities are frequently excluded from sharing their perspectives. So governments need to look for ways to make co-design communicatively accessible. This must include engaging with multiple modes of communication, including visual aids, key words, augmentative communication, and physical forms of expression. People with communication disability must play a central role in all stages of the policy design process: as informants, design partners and users.

NDIS funding models must cover making a person’s support and service network an accessible communication environment. People with communication disability tell us that time, sustained engagement and relationship building are essential. While strategies are person-specific, practical considerations include ensuring access to assistive equipment and devices, providing choices, checking own understanding, and paying attention to non-verbal communication.

The costs of doing so are offset by the economic value of better health and well-being, employment, education, health, leisure and access to justice.

As the disability royal commission showed, poor oversight has resulted in significant harm, with inadequate safety and incident reporting measures that have translated to increased risk for people experiencing barriers to communicating their concerns.

At a minimum, communication access standards should ensure disability providers have base-level skills to recognise and support diverse forms of communication. Feedback and complaint mechanisms must also go beyond traditional formats of written and verbal communication.

As a community we must learn, not just from the stories and experiences shared with and by the disability royal commission, but also from how people with disability were supported to provide them. Through acknowledgement of the diversity of communication and by providing communication supports, we now have the opportunity to build inclusive environments.

Abby Foster consults to and is a certified practising member of Speech Pathology Australia. She is a research affiliate with the Centre for Research Excellence in Aphasia Recovery and Rehabilitation. She is affiliated with Yes23 campaign and Healthy Futures

Lucette Lanyon consults on inclusion of people with communication disability within organisational structures and clinical research. She receives funding from the Stroke Foundation and is a research affiliate with the Centre for Research Excellence in Aphasia Recovery and Rehabilitation.

– ref. For people with communication disability, complaining about their treatment isn’t so simple – https://theconversation.com/for-people-with-communication-disability-complaining-about-their-treatment-isnt-so-simple-214717

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University

When we think of extinction, we think of individual species. But nature doesn’t operate like that. Entire communities and even whole ecosystems are now so compromised they could be lost entirely. Australia now has about 100 ecological communities at risk.

One of those is the iconic Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans) community in Victoria’s Central Highlands. Many of us know and love these regal trees, the tallest flowering plant in the world. But decades of logging, repeated wildfires, and fragmentation of these forests means they and the species which rely on them like Leadbeater’s possum and gliders now face existential threats.

In our new research, we point to the need to list the entire community as threatened.

Read more:
After the chainsaws, the quiet: Victoria’s rapid exit from native forest logging is welcome – and long overdue

How can ecological communities go extinct?

Australia is an enormous contributor to global biodiversity loss. A recent study found 97 species in Australia have now gone extinct since British colonisation in 1788, with roughly 10% of all native mammal species gone forever. The numbers would be higher if invertebrate losses were included.

Worldwide, roughly a million species are now at risk of extinction. Looming loss at this scale threatens entire ecological communities – or even whole ecosystems.

Under Australia’s biodiversity laws, ecological communities can be listed as threatened, endangered or critically endangered. About 100 ecological communities – defined as assemblages of species in a particular habitat – are currently at risk. But even this figure is likely to be a massive underestimate.

Many ecological communities are not on this list even though they probably should be. The reason for that is a lack of good data.

To find out whether a community is threatened requires a thorough assessment of many species and key ecological processes using high-quality long-term data.

These kinds of data aren’t available for many communities. But we have 40 years of detailed data for the Central Highlands Mountain Ash forests. So to find out whether they are truly threatened, we undertook a detailed assessment.

Why are these forests at risk of collapse?

These forests cover 140,000 hectares near Victorian towns like Marysville, Warburton and Healesville. They’re rich in biodiversity, including several threatened mammals and plants.

We focused on the Central Highlands because this area is home to the largest remaining forests of Mountain Ash – 44% of all remaining forest.

Much elsewhere has been lost. In South Gippsland, plantations, dairy and potato farms have replaced Mountain Ash forests, with only small fragments left.

Tasmania’s Mountain Ash forests are important, albeit less extensive than those in Victoria’s Central Highlands.

Our conclusion? Sadly, the Central Highlands Mountain Ash community is now eligible for listing as either endangered or critically endangered.

These forests are now largely regrowth. Many have been fragmented, making it harder for wildlife to cross between patches. Biodiversity is still declining, including threatened species, while changing fire regimes are placing intensive pressure on the remaining forests.

What happened here? These forests have been subject to decades of intensive clearfell logging, as well extensive cutting dating back to the late 1920s.

These pressures have made old growth a vanishing rarity, accounting for just over 1% of the remaining 137,000 hectares of Mountain Ash forest in the Central Highlands. The rest of the forest is often highly degraded.

The loss of almost all old growth has been devastating for species like Leadbeater’s possum, the southern greater glider and the yellow-bellied glider over the past 25 years. These animals must have nesting hollows to survive, and these only form when large old trees lose limbs – a process that can take well over 100 years.

And because the Mountain Ash community is dominated by younger trees, it is now at risk of reburning. Younger trees are highly fire-prone – even those regenerating from the Black Saturday fires of 2009. This has left the entire ecological community vulnerable to future fires.

Our analysis found nearly 70% of these forest communities are already either severely disturbed by fire and logging or exist within 70 metres of severely disturbed areas.

What would happen if Mountain Ash communities collapse?

These pressures have pushed these forests to the edge. They could readily collapse and be replaced by an entirely different community, dominated by wattles and prone to more fire, more often.

The collapse of the Mountain Ash community would have catastrophic implications for the five million people who live in Melbourne. The city’s famously good drinking water relies almost entirely on run-off from Mountain Ash forest to the east.

You might wonder – won’t the ending of industrial logging in January help? It might – if we undertake a massive restoration effort. Many tracts of forest are simply not regenerating after logging – up to 30%.

Restoring tree cover, species diversity and making the ecosystem functional again will take a great deal of work.

What can we do?

The case is compelling for listing Victoria’s Mountain Ash community as threatened.

Huge efforts will be required to stop the populations of animals such as the southern greater glider from plunging. Recently, we have been testing new nesting box designs to help populations recover. These boxes are meant to be a stop-gap substitute as nesting hollows to replace natural cavities.

We’ll also have to do our best to keep out high-intensity wildfire from as many areas of Mountain Ash forest as possible, so the young trees have a chance to mature and develop hollows.

This kind of restoration is compatible with efforts by conservationists to declare a Great Forest National Park to protect Mountain Ash communities.

It’s well established that protecting areas does work. For example, an estimated 25% of the world’s bird species are alive today because they have been protected in reserves.

Listing an ecological community as threatened isn’t a one-way street to extinction. We can – and have – reversed the damage for other communities and species. We need do it for Mountain Ash forests, and it must be done now.

Read more:
We can’t just walk away after the logging stops in Victoria’s native forests. Here’s what must happen next

David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Government, and the Victorian Government. He is a Councillor with the Biodiversity Council and is a member of Birds Australia.

Elle Bowd has received funding from the Paddy Pallin Foundation, Centre of Biodiversity Analysis, the Ecological Society of Australia, New South Wales government and the Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment fund.

Kita Ashman works for WWF Australia and is an Ambassador for Paddy Pallin.

Chris Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. It’s not just Victoria’s iconic mountain ash trees at risk – it’s every species in their community – https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-victorias-iconic-mountain-ash-trees-at-risk-its-every-species-in-their-community-214582

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

In defending a Federal Court case brought by opponents of her decisions to approve two export coal mines, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is relying in part on what critics call the “drug dealer’s defence”.

It’s reasoning that argues: if we don’t sell this product, someone else will.

Prime Minister Albanese has argued the same thing, telling The Australian

policies that would just result in a replacement of Australian resources with resources that are less clean from other countries would lead to an increase in global emissions, not a decrease.

Albanese’s reasoning is that saying no to new Australian coal mines wouldn’t cut global emissions, it would just produce “less economic activity in Australia”.

If it sounds like a familiar argument, it is – past prime ministers and the coal industry have made similar claims for decades.

It’s possible to test this argument using economics, putting to one side the question of whether it is morally justifiable.

The defence works for drug dealers

Let’s look at how this defence works with retail drug dealers, many of whom are drug users themselves.

Street-level drug dealing is a job that doesn’t require much skill and pays above the minimum wage, even after allowing for the risk of arrest.

As a result, as soon as one dealer is arrested, someone will enter the market to replace the dealer. For this reason, drug policy has shifted away from traditional modes of street-level enforcement and towards community partnerships.

But coal is different. Global markets are supplied by a range of producers, each with different costs. Some mines can cover their costs even when world prices are low, others require very high world coal prices to break even.

In the case of metallurgical (coking) coal used to make steel, Australia’s mines are mostly at the low-cost end of the spectrum as shown below:

Indicative hard coking coal supply curve by mine, 2019

Thermal coal, used in electricity generation, is more complex, since much of the variation in price relates to its quality, rather than extraction cost.

Nevertheless, the fact remains that if one producer withdraws from the market or reduces output, it is highly unlikely to be replaced by an identical-cost producer.

It is likely instead to be replaced by a higher-cost supplier who needs a higher price to cover its costs. That’ll make the coal less attractive to the buyer who would have bought from the low-cost producer, making that buyer less likely to buy less of it.

This is Economics 101, illustrated in the supply and demand diagrams in just about every economics textbook.

Why Australia’s coal matters globally

In most markets, the demand curve is downward sloping, meaning the higher the price, the less the buyer wants.

And in most markets, the supply curve is upward sloping, meaning the higher the price, the more the seller is prepared to sell.

What’s bought, and for how much, depends on where those curves meet.

If the supply curve moves up, because the cost of supply has increased, the price at which the good is bought will move up and the quantity bought will move down.

In the figure below, the supply curve S1 is the current global supply.

If Australia supplies less coal, the supply curve will shift from S1 to S2, resulting in the higher price P2.

The higher price will result in increased supply from competitors, but also a reduction in the total amount consumed, a cut from Q1 to Q2.

This means that, contrary to government claims, our decisions will have an impact on global emissions and ultimately on global heating

Moreover, Australian decisions aren’t isolated.

All around the world, governments, financial institutions and civil society groups are grappling with the need to transition away from coal.

Proposals for new and expanded coal mines and coal-fired power stations face resistance at every step. In particular, the great majority of global banks and insurance companies now refuse to finance and insure new coal.

This means that the long-run response to a reduction in Australia’s supply of coal will involve less substitution and more of a drop in use than might be thought.

For coal, the drug dealer’s defence is shoddy

It makes the drug dealers defence for exporting coal especially shoddy.

It would be open to Plibersek to make another argument: that in the government’s political judgement, Australians are not willing to wear the short-run costs of a transition from coal, regardless of the impact on the global climate manifested every day in bushfires, floods and environmental destruction.

But instead, we are being told that if Australia cuts supply, other suppliers will rush in, without being told about their costs and what will happen next.

In markets like coal, with a fixed number of suppliers facing different costs, demand responds to the withdrawal of supply in the way the economics textbooks say it should.

Read more:
Yes, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek approved a coal mine. But save the angst for decisions that matter more

John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority.

– ref. Why the ‘drug dealers defence’ doesn’t work for exporting coal. It’s actually Economics 101 – https://theconversation.com/why-the-drug-dealers-defence-doesnt-work-for-exporting-coal-its-actually-economics-101-214588

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Spoonley, Distinguished Professor, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Massey University

The concerns of various pundits and politicians earlier this year that New Zealand might struggle to attract immigrants turned out to be premature. In fact, the country’s population has been boosted to the extent it should be a bigger election issue than it is.

In the 12 months to July, total permanent migrant arrivals were 208,400 – exceeding previous levels by quite a margin. Accounting for permanent departures, the net population gain from immigrants has been 96,200.

That breaks all previous records, and even accounts for a return to the consistent pattern of a net loss of New Zealand citizens (39,500 in the same period). There is every indication the country will hit an annual net gain of 100,000 people.

At this rate, inward migration will provide a net annual population gain of 2% for 2023. Once natural increase is added (births over deaths being more than 20,000 a year), the overall rate will be around 2.3% to 2.4%. By contrast, the OECD average is less than 0.5%.

Auckland is beginning another period of rapid population growth, reversing the decline seen in 2021. The city’s growth accounts for around half of the country’s total net migration gain. Combined with a natural increase of around 7,000 to 8,000, it means the city will have significant population growth, even allowing for a net migration loss to other regions.

Some of this surge can be explained by the return to relative normal after pandemic restrictions were lifted. But there’s a range of other factors pushing people to New Zealand, including anti-immigrant politics and general disenchantment in other countries.

New Zealand is seen as a desirable destination. In a recent US survey Americans ranked New Zealand second on their list of “best countries” – ahead of the US itself.

Immigration and productivity

In 2021, at the request of the finance minister, the Productivity Commission examined the ways immigration settings would contribute to the “long-term prosperity and wellbeing” of the country.

The Immigration – Fit for the Future report released in 2022 provided a very complete review of the data and issues. While it indicated that immigration and immigrants have positive effects and outcomes for New Zealand, it also pointed to a lack of consistency and strategy, and little public accountability.

Read more:
Refugees who set up businesses enrich NZ financially, culturally and socially – they deserve more support

Key findings included what the commission referred to as “an infrastructure deficit” as investment failed to keep up with population growth. It also described a “reliance risk” on migrant labour that had “negative consequences on innovation and productivity”.

In the trade-off between a reliance on migrant labour or investing in new technologies, the concern is that migrant labour presents an easy win, with little incentive for employers to innovate.

Yet the significant implications of the current immigration surge for planning and productivity are noticeably absent from this election campaign.

The missing election issue

Mostly, the main parties are positive about the role and contribution of immigrants (unlike some countries where anti-migrant sentiment has been rising). But the parties are also mainly concerned with policy detail, not the bigger picture.

Labour, National, ACT and the Greens all propose family and parent visas. This is to be welcomed, as migration works best when extended families are involved. And there is a general recognition that talent recruitment needs more attention.

Read more:
Why has New Zealand welcomed Ukrainians fleeing war and not others trying to do the same?

Specifically, Labour wants Pasifika and other migrants who have been in New Zealand for ten years or more to gain residency. The Greens propose a review of refugee and asylum-seeker policy. National wants a new visa category for highly educated migrants. And ACT would require a regulatory impact analysis for all immigration policy.

For its part, New Zealand First refers back to its policies from the 2020 election. This includes statements about the negative impact of “cheap labour undermining New Zealand’s pay and conditions”, something the Productivity Commission found little evidence of.

But the party also suggested greater attention should be given to a more regionally dispersed population and the establishment of a 30-year population plan. Somewhat by default, then, New Zealand First highlights the gaps in other parties’ policy recommendations.

Read more:
Foreign policy has been missing from NZ’s election campaign – voters deserve answers to these big questions

Where is the population strategy?

A more robust and constructive election debate would have addressed those big gaps more directly.

What should be New Zealand’s annual target for migrants, both permanent and temporary? How do we meet the challenges created by the current high volume, including the processing of applications, potential for migrant exploitation, and the stress on services and infrastructure?

More broadly, shouldn’t we be looking at immigration policy in the context of all the elements in play? This would mean factoring in the rapid ageing of the population, declining fertility and very different regional demographic trajectories (with some places experiencing population stagnation or decline).

Asked in a recent radio interview about the housing and infrastructure challenges of immigration and record population growth, National leader (and potentially next prime minister) Christopher Luxon argued the numbers were a “catch-up” from the COVID years:

We’ve got to make sure immigration is always strongly linked to our economic agenda and where we have worker shortages.

This only emphasises the lack of a genuine national plan. Now that the workers kept out by COVID are flowing into the country in large numbers, the Productivity Commission’s observations and suggestions are more relevant than ever.

Otherwise, New Zealand risks allowing immigration to be the default answer to much harder questions about innovation, productivity and the development of a long-term population strategy.

Paul Spoonley has received funding from MBIE to research migrant flows and the impacts of diversity. This research ended in 2021.

– ref. Record immigration will put pressure on NZ’s population, infrastructure and productivity – where’s the election debate? – https://theconversation.com/record-immigration-will-put-pressure-on-nzs-population-infrastructure-and-productivity-wheres-the-election-debate-214952

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney, UNSW Sydney

Immigration Minister Andrew Giles today announced significant changes aimed at restoring the integrity of Australia’s refugee protection system.

The key focus is on reducing the significant backlogs in the processing and reviewing of protection visa applications once people apply for asylum in Australia.

The aim is to ensure people who fear persecution or other serious rights abuses can be granted protection quickly. This will, Giles says, allow them to “rebuild their lives with certainty and stability”.

According to Giles, “Australians are rightly proud of our country’s generous refugee program”. But there is no denying the current onshore protection system is broken.

The focus of successive governments in recent years has been on blocking and punishing asylum seekers who attempt to reach Australia by boat. This has distracted both the public – and the government – from the serious systemic issues slowing down access to protection here in Australia.

A decade for a final decision

The onshore protection system covers people who arrive in Australia on a valid visa – such as a tourist or student visa – and then apply for asylum.

Some people have valid protection claims, some don’t. A key problem is that processing times for these claims have been ballooning in recent years. On average, it now takes around 2.4 years for an initial decision on a protection claim to be made by the Department of Home Affairs. If the application is denied, it takes another 3.6 years to seek a merits review of the claim at the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. And if it’s denied again, there’s an additional 5.1 years for judicial review by the courts.

As a result, some people have had to wait as long as 11 years for a final decision. Such delays have a devastating impact on people with genuine asylum claims, who are forced to live in limbo and uncertainty for lengthy periods of time.

On the flipside, these delays have also been “motivating bad actors” to take advantage of the system by lodging increasing numbers of “non-genuine applications for protection”, according to the Nixon report, a review into the exploitation of Australia’s visa system by Victoria’s former police chief commissioner, Christine Nixon, which was released this week.

Read more:
Visa exploitation review urges tougher penalties and a ban on temporary migrants in sex work. Would this solve the problem?

The proposed changes

In this context, we welcome the A$160 million investment announced by the government today to implement a faster and fairer onshore protection system. This will increase the decision-making capacity across the whole asylum system. The funding includes:

• $54 million for the initial processing of claims by Home Affairs

• $58 million for the appointment of ten additional members to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, the body that reviews claims that have been rejected

• and ten additional judges to the Federal Circuit and Family Court.

Another $48 million will be provided for legal assistance to support people through the complex asylum application process – something we have long called for.

There is a wealth of evidence demonstrating legal assistance increases the fairness and efficiency of the asylum process. Research by the Kaldor Centre Data Lab found asylum applicants with legal representation are, on average, five times more likely to succeed on a merits review than applicants who represent themselves. They are also six times more likely to succeed at the judicial review stage.

There is a wealth of similar research from other countries, including Canada, Switzerland and the United States, showing legal representation makes the entire system more efficient.

Read more:
How refugees succeed in visa reviews: new research reveals the factors that matter

This is because refugee lawyers provide a very important “triage” service in the process. Their specialised understanding of the law – as well as the social and political conditions from which asylum seekers have fled – means they only take on cases they feel have merit. In this way, lawyers help reduce the number of unmeritorious claims reaching tribunals and courts.

Refugee lawyers also help asylum seekers prepare their statements coherently and systematically. They identify relevant evidence and legal principles, which assists decision-makers to focus on the key aspects of the claim.

When an asylum seeker is unrepresented, decision-makers have to spend much more time ensuring the applicant understands the process and possible outcomes. They also want to ensure the person feels they have had a fair hearing. Overall, this is an inefficient use of public resources.

Smarter use of resources

These reforms represent a significant departure from Australia’s previous attempts to increase the efficiency of Australia’s asylum processes. Over the past three decades, successive governments have instead limited the rights of people seeking asylum – including by cutting funding for legal support.

Our research has made clear these efforts have almost always backfired, leading to more appeals and longer delays.

The most egregious example is the so-called “fast-track” procedure for processing the claims of certain asylum seekers who arrive by boat. Not only is the procedure unfair, but (contrary to its name) it has also been excruciatingly slow.

Read more:
Australia’s temporary visa system is unfair, expensive, impractical and inconsistent. Here’s how the new government could fix it

Now, to help speed up the asylum process more broadly, the government is implementing a new approach called “real-time priority processing” of protection visa applications at Home Affairs. This will involve a “last in, first out” approach that prioritises new asylum applications for rapid processing.

The rationale is this will de-incentivise unmeritorious applications and abuse of the asylum system.

While this makes sense as an interim measure as the government works through its significant backlogs, we still need a wider discussion on different approaches to prioritising claims. We need to ensure government resources are being used most efficiently and in the best interests of people seeking asylum.

There are potential lessons Australia can draw on from overseas. Canada, for example, prioritises and fast tracks applications that have a high likelihood of success. Switzerland accelerates cases with both high and low chances of success. Only complex cases requiring further investigation take longer to resolve.

To ensure fairness, Switzerland also provides universal access to government-funded legal representation. We need to spend more time examining these models to see what we can learn and adopt in Australia.

The Kaldor Centre is continuing this process by hosting a conference in Sydney next month which will discuss how we can ensure fairness for people seeking protection in the decade ahead. However, the central focus of the announcement this week on increasing the quality and capacity of Australia’s asylum system is a welcome first step in the right direction.

Daniel Ghezelbash receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the NSW Government. He is a member of the management committee of Refugee Advice and Casework Services and a Special Counsel at the National Justice Project.

Jane McAdam receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Why the government’s plan to overhaul the asylum system is a smart use of resources – and might just work – https://theconversation.com/why-the-governments-plan-to-overhaul-the-asylum-system-is-a-smart-use-of-resources-and-might-just-work-215061

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ritesh Chugh, Associate Professor – Information and Communications Technology, CQUniversity Australia

In the world of lithium-ion batteries, smartphones take centre stage. Yet they’ve also sparked an ongoing debate: does prolonged (or overnight) charging wreak havoc on your battery?

A number of factors determine a phone battery’s lifespan, including its manufacturing age and its chemical age. The latter refers to the battery’s gradual degradation due to variables such as fluctuations in temperature, charging and discharging patterns and overall usage.

Over time, the chemical ageing of lithium-ion batteries reduces charge capacity, battery lifespan and performance.

According to Apple:

A normal [iPhone] battery is designed to retain up to 80% of its original capacity at 500 complete charge cycles when operating under normal conditions.

Research has found a 2019 smartphone battery could, on average, undergo 850 full charge/discharge cycles before dropping to below 80% capacity. This means only 80% of the initial battery capacity remains after about two to three years of use. At this point the battery begins to deplete noticeably faster.

Should you charge your phone overnight?

Most new-generation smartphones will take somewhere between 30 minutes and two hours to charge fully.

Charging times vary depending on your device’s battery capacity – larger capacities require more time – as well as how much power your charger supplies.

Charging your phone overnight is not only unnecessary, it also accelerates battery ageing. Full charging cycles (going from 0%–100%) should be avoided to maximise your battery’s lifespan.

Samsung says:

charging your battery up to 100% too frequently may negatively impact the overall lifespan of the battery.

Similarly, keeping iPhones at full charge for extended periods may compromise their battery health.

Rather than a full top-up, it’s recommended to charge your battery up to 80% and not allow it to dip under 20%.

Can your phone be overcharged?

In theory, lithium-ion batteries can be overcharged. This can lead to safety risks such as the battery overheating and catching fire. The good news is most modern phones have an in-built protection that automatically stops the battery from charging further than 100% – preventing any damage from overcharging.

However, each time a battery drops to 99% (due to apps running in the background) it will “trickle charge”: it will start charging again to maintain a fully charged state.

Trickle charging can wear a battery down over time. That’s why many manufacturers have features to regulate it. Apple’s iPhones offer functionality to delay charging past 80%. Samsung’s Galaxy phones provide the option to cap the charge at 85%.

Can your phone explode from charging?

It’s very unlikely your smartphone will explode as a result of charging – especially since most phones now have automatic protections against overcharging.

Still, over the years we have seen several reports of phones exploding unexpectedly. This usually happens as a result of manufacturing faults, poor-quality hardware or physical damage.

Lithium-ion phone batteries overheat when the heat generated during charging is unable to dissipate. This may cause burns or, in extreme cases, lead to a fire.

Also, these batteries operate effectively within a temperature range of 0℃ to 40℃. They may expand at higher ambient temperatures, potentially causing a fire or explosion.

Using an incorrect, faulty or poor-quality charger or cable can also lead to overheating, fire hazards and damage to the phone itself.

Read more:
Phone wet and won’t turn on? Here’s how to deal with water damage (hint: soaking it in rice won’t work)

Tips to enhance your battery’s lifespan

Although your phone probably has in-built safety mechanisms to protect its battery, taking a cautious approach will make it last even longer. Here are some ways to protect your phone’s battery:

1. install the latest software updates to keep your phone up-to-date with the manufacturer’s battery efficiency enhancements

2. use original or certified power chargers, as the power delivery (amps, volts and watts) in off-market chargers can differ and may not meet the required safety standards

3. avoid exposing your phone to high temperatures – Apple and Samsung say their phones work best at 0℃ to 35℃ ambient temperatures

4. limit your charging to 80% of the full capacity and don’t let it dip below 20%

5. don’t leave your phone charging for an extended period, such as overnight, and disconnect it from the power source if the battery reaches 100%

6. keep your phone in a well-ventilated area while it’s charging and avoid placing it or the charger under a blanket, pillow or your body while it’s connected to a power source

7. monitor your battery health and use to identify unusual trends, such as taking an excessive time to charge, or rapid draining

8. if you notice your phone is heating up excessively, or has a bulging or swollen back, get an authorised service centre to check and repair it.

If you want specific details about your particular phone and battery, the best option is to follow the manufacturer’s guidelines.

Read more:
It’s 2022. Why do we still not have waterproof phones?

Ritesh Chugh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Should you charge your phone overnight? Will ‘overcharging’ make it explode? Common battery myths debunked – https://theconversation.com/should-you-charge-your-phone-overnight-will-overcharging-make-it-explode-common-battery-myths-debunked-214956

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Ann Wheeler, Professor in Water Economics, University of Adelaide

The impact on mental health of weather extremes such as drought is a growing concern due to climate change.

Rural communities feel the impact of drought much more than urban residents. Our new research looks at the link between drought and suicide rates in one of Australia’s biggest farming areas, the Murray-Darling Basin.

Drawing on monthly data from 2006 to 2016, our findings were alarming. We found, for instance, that one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with a 32% increase in monthly suicide rates.

Climate change is predicted to bring more heat and longer, more extreme droughts. More effective approaches will be needed to prevent suicides in affected regions.

Read more:
Drought increases rural suicide, and climate change will make drought worse

Drought hits rural areas hardest

Droughts induce post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety and depression. Hotter temperatures can also reduce levels of the brain chemical serotonin. This has negative effects on the central nervous system and moods.

In Australia, suicide is a leading cause of death – especially for people aged 18-44. And the suicide rate in remote areas is almost double that of major cities. This is because drought can:

• reduce agricultural production
• increase financial hardship
• degrade the environment
• reduce employment.

Research overseas found suicide rates rise with higher average temperatures. In Australia, a study found some evidence linking drought and suicide in New South Wales. However, a Victorian study found no significant association.

Read more:
Bushfires, drought, COVID: why rural Australians’ mental health is taking a battering

What happened in the basin?

Our study looked at the Murray-Darling Basin. The region went through one of the worst droughts on record, the Millennium Drought, over the past couple of decades.

We analysed local area monthly data from 2006-16. We wanted to see whether worsening drought and heat were linked to higher monthly suicide rates, by examining differing types of droughts (moderate to extreme).

The map below shows the average suicide rate for 2006-2016 in local areas across the basin. Male suicide rates were over three times female rates.

We sought to control for as many local area characteristics as possible. Our modelling included unemployment, income, education, proportion of farmers, proportion of Indigenous people, health professionals, green space and various climate and drought variables. We modelled suicide rates for different age and gender sub-groups.

Key findings include:

• one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with the total suicide rate increasing by 32%
• one more month of moderate drought in the previous 12 months was very weakly associated with a 2% increase in the suicide rate
• a 1℃ increase in average monthly maximum temperature in the previous 12 months was associated with up to an 8% increase in the suicide rate
• in males and younger age groups, suicide rates are more strongly associated with extreme drought and higher temperatures
• a higher proportion of farmers in a local area was associated with an increased suicide rate
• a higher proportion of First Nations people in a local area was also associated with higher suicide rates
• more green space was significantly associated with moderating impacts of both extreme drought and temperature on suicide rates
• an increase in average annual household income moderated the relationship between higher temperature and suicide.

Our results suggest the association between moderate drought and suicide rates is significant but the effect was small. As the drought becomes extreme, suicide rates increase significantly.

Read more:
New findings show a direct causal relationship between unemployment and suicide

What can we do better to prevent suicides?

Given drought’s impact on farm production and finances, mental health will clearly get worse in rural areas if the impacts of climate change are not better managed.

Mental health interventions to prevent suicide in rural areas are different from what’s needed in urban areas. Areas in the basin with higher percentages of farmers and First Nations people were hot spots. These areas may need special intervention.

Many have emphasised the need for a systems approach to suicide prevention. Actions need to be multifaceted and co-ordinated as well as possible. One intervention or approach is not enough.

Read more:
Hairdressers in rural Australia end up being counsellors too

Interventions in the bush range from telehealth and medical services to primary health networks services, men’s sheds and drought counselling.

The relationship between drought and financial hardship seems to be key in farming areas. This points to the need for other forms of income on the farm, including from native vegetation and carbon credits. Work can also be done to promote drought preparedness, increase appropriate regional economic, social development and environmental policies and – where necessary – help people leave farming.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Sarah Ann Wheeler has received funding from the Australian Research Council; GRDC; Wine Australia; MDBA; CRC Food Waste; CSIRO; Goyder Institute; SA Department of Environment and Water; ACCC; NT Department of Environment, Parks and Water Security; NSW Health; Commonwealth Department of Agriculture and Water; Meat and Livestock Australia; ACIAR; RIRDC; UNECE; NCCARF; National Water Commission; and the Government of Netherlands.

Alec Zuo receives funding from the Australian Research Council, GRDC, ACCC, NSW Health, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ACIAR, NCCARF, and the National Water Commission.

Ying Xu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Suicide rates jumped after extreme drought in the Murray-Darling Basin – we have to do better as climate change intensifies – https://theconversation.com/suicide-rates-jumped-after-extreme-drought-in-the-murray-darling-basin-we-have-to-do-better-as-climate-change-intensifies-211107

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Lensen, Senior Lecturer in Artificial Intelligence | Pūkenga Matua, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

As the 2023 election campaign enters its final days, there is an elephant in the room that politicians seem keen to ignore: the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and what it will mean for New Zealand’s economy, politics and society.

Developments over the past year, such as ChatGPT and Midjourney, have AI experts worried about the deeper consequences of these digital tools.

And they’re not alone. Global market research firm Ipsos found 63% of New Zealanders were nervous about AI, even though only 35% understand where it’s being used.

As a society, we rely on the government to take the lead on important issues like this. But there has been barely a peep on the topic from those seeking election this year. That relative silence should concern everyone.

The AI future is geting closer

During a recent election debate, the leaders of both major political parties were asked if AI was a threat to humanity. Labour’s Chris Hipkins said “potentially”, while National’s Christopher Luxon said “there are good and bad parts”.

The leaders were also asked about a potential tax on AI to support workers who will eventually lose their jobs to this kind of technology. Hipkins said he was “not sure how to do that”, and Luxon said he thought “we are a long way from that”.

But we’re not.

In May 2023, 4,000 jobs were lost to AI in the United States alone. Global business consulting firm McKinsey has said 12 million American workers will need to switch jobs by 2030 as a consequence of generative AI – artificial intelligence capable of generating text, images and other media.

Read more:
Artificial Intelligence should benefit society, not create threats

But AI will have wider societal implications than its impact on jobs. Over the past two decades, social media has contributed to a rise in misinformation, disinformation and political polarisation. New and more human-like AI bots – software programmed to complete repetitive tasks automatically – will make these threats even more pervasive, and more difficult to combat.

The use of AI in health, government, employment and other contexts has the potential to reinforce existing biases and prejudices, leading to inequitable outcomes.

This is especially true in Aotearoa, where AI models trained on Westernised data are ignorant of Māori tikanga and data sovereignty. AI is also putting minority languages at risk by defaulting to English

New Zealand is falling behind

The New Zealand government has been enthusiastic in using AI across the public service – from optimal scheduling of public hospital beds to helping decide whether an offender should be released from prison. But local lawmakers have been falling behind the rest of the world when it comes to regulating the technology.

The European Union’s AI Act is expected to pass into law by the end of 2023. This legislation is complex, but at its core it will classify AI tools into different categories of risk (from banned uses to no risk), with corresponding legislative requirements for deployment and monitoring.

The Union’s data privacy laws may also provide citizens with the “right to an explanation” on decisions made by AI systems.

Canada has announced a voluntary code of conduct with six core principles for organisations to follow when developing safe and responsible generative AI systems.

Even in the US – considered the centre of AI innovation – individual states are passing laws addressing the perceived threats of AI. At the federal level, the senate judiciary has held hearings on the regulation of AI.

Read more:
We need to prepare for the public safety hazards posed by artificial intelligence

There may be (small) signs of progress at home. In July, the office of the Prime Minister’s Chief Science Adviser released an article about New Zealand’s current response to AI and the challenges around regulation.

Labour’s recently released election manifesto mentions AI twice in its 74 pages, with a promise of a “just transition” for AI-affected workers. But the manifesto doesn’t describe what this transition would look like.

National’s “Boosting the Tech Sector” policy document states that a new “minister of technology” will ensure AI is used “safely and ethically” – without detailing what this means or how it will be enforced.

The Green Party’s digital policy provides overarching principles for regulating digital technology, such as social responsibility (reducing inequality) and honouring Te Tiriti. Again, however, the policy does not specifically address AI.

The other parties do not appear to have readily available technology policies on their websites.

Leaders need to go further on AI

Clearly, there is a way to go on policy development. New Zealand needs stronger data privacy laws recognising data is a taonga (treasure), and which require informed consent for use in AI training and processing.

Well-resourced, specialised policing that can investigate the use of deepfakes for identity theft and revenge porn are also needed.

And there needs to be regulation on what is and isn’t allowed to be automated with AI. For example, should the government automate benefit eligibility decisions or should the justice system use AI for low-level sentencing?

Economically, how can the profits of AI applications that use local data be kept within New Zealand? In the absence of a clear, homegrown AI strategy, Aotearoa will miss out on the opportunity to foster AI that benefits everyone.

Without active government regulation, New Zealanders and their political system could be vulnerable to manipulation by malign foreign interests.

The country needs to invest in its workforce to meet the changes being wrought by AI, and embrace Māori-driven AI research that establishes New Zealand as a creator of technologies that work for its people, not against them.

Andrew Lensen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ’s political leaders are ignoring the mounting threats from AI – and that’s putting everyone at risk – https://theconversation.com/nzs-political-leaders-are-ignoring-the-mounting-threats-from-ai-and-thats-putting-everyone-at-risk-214714

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Petraglia, Director, Australian Research Centre for Human Evolution, Griffith University

Our species, Homo sapiens, migrated out of Africa multiple times – reaching the Levant and Arabia between 130,000 and 70,000 years ago, as exemplified by human fossils and archaeological sites found at various locations.

Little is known, however, about the pathways of these migrations. In a study published today in Science Advances, we find the now inhospitable and hyper-arid zone of the southern Jordan Rift Valley was frequently lush and well-watered in the past.

Our evidence suggests this valley had a riverine and wetland zone that would have provided ideal passage for hunter-gatherers as they moved out of Africa and deep into the Levant and Arabia.

Wandering out of Africa

Researchers hypothesise humans migrating out of Africa would have used platforms in the eastern Sahara, the Nile River Valley, or the margins of the western Red Sea.

From there, these small bands of hunter-gatherers would have passed into the Sinai – a land bridge connecting Africa with the rest of Asia – following migrating animals and hunting a variety of them for sustenance.

For many of these hunter-gatherers, the next stop on the journey would have been the southern portion of the Jordan Rift Valley. This valley is situated in a strategic zone, with the Dead Sea to the north and the Gulf of Aqaba in the south.

Our field work was concentrated on three sites. The first two were Wadi Gharandal and an area near the village of Gregra – both in the valley itself. The third site, Wadi Hasa, is located in the more elevated areas of the Jordan plateau.

“Wadi” is an Arabic word describing a temporary riverbed that only contains water during heavy rains.

When Arabia was a verdant land

Our goal was to reconstruct the region’s past environmental settings by accurately dating various sections of sediment. We used a technique called luminescence dating to estimate how long sediment grains had been shielded from sunlight, thereby allowing us to calculate how old they were.

Our findings from sedimentary sections ranging 5 to 12 metres in thickness showed ecosystem fluctuations over time, including cycles of dry and humid environments. We also found evidence for the presence of ancient rivers and wetlands.

Luminescence dating showed the sedimentary environments formed between 125,000 and 43,000 years ago, suggesting there had been multiple wet intervals.

At Wadi Gharandal, our team recovered three stone tools associated with a wetland environment. Two of these were made using the Levallois method – a characteristic manufacturing technique known to have been used by both Neanderthals and Homo sapiens. We dated the tools to 84,000 years ago.

Collectively, our fieldwork in the Jordan Rift Valley demonstrates the valley once functioned as a 360-kilometre-long freshwater corridor that helped funnel humans northward into Western Asia and southward into the Arabian Peninsula.

Further evidence for a northward expansion comes from the famous Skhul and Qafzeh cave sites in Israel. Fossils of Homo sapiens and Levallois stone tools have been found here.

Towards the south, fieldwork in northern Saudi Arabia has also demonstrated a network of rivers and lakes was once present in the region. This allowed humans to penetrate a green Nefud Desert replete with savannahs and grassland.

In the heart of the Nefud, the lakeside site of Al Wusta has produced a human fossil and Levallois stone tools dating to 85,000 years ago. These dates coincide with the 84,000-year-old Levallois stone tools found at Wadi Gharandal.

Read more:
Major new research claims smaller-brained _Homo naledi_ made rock art and buried the dead. But the evidence is lacking

Multiple migrations into South-West Asia

Our findings from the Jordan Rift Valley indicate there were multiple early human migrations from Africa, and into Asia, during favourable conditions. This opposes the theory of a single, rapid wave of human movement out of Africa 60,000 years ago.

Our results also suggest, together with the Levantine and Arabian evidence, that hunter-gatherers used inland river and wetland systems as they crossed South-West Asia. This contradicts a popular model suggesting they mainly used coastal routes as super-highways.

Although ancient DNA evidence indicates Homo sapiens interbred with Neanderthals and Denisovans multiple times as they spread into Asia, on-the-ground evidence for these encounters has generally been lacking. Our findings provide further evidence this area served as the ground for these encounters.

Yet numerous questions remain unanswered. Large swathes of territory in South-West Asia have not yet been surveyed or dated – and few fossils of our ancestors have been found to shore up arguments about how early humans really dispersed.

We’ll need to closely investigate more long-neglected areas such as the Jordan Rift Valley to accurately portray how humankind’s voyage out of Africa unfolded.

Read more:
Research reveals humans ventured out of Africa repeatedly as early as 400,000 years ago, to visit the rolling grasslands of Arabia

Zhongping Lai receives funding from the China Natural Science Foundation.

Mahmoud Abbas and Michael Petraglia do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New path for early human migrations through a once-lush Arabia contradicts a single ‘out of Africa’ origin – https://theconversation.com/new-path-for-early-human-migrations-through-a-once-lush-arabia-contradicts-a-single-out-of-africa-origin-214719

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria Guagnin, Postdoctoral Researcher, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology

About 7,000 years ago, a small group of people sat around a fire, next to a small lake in what is now the Nefud Desert of northern Saudi Arabia.

We found some of the tools they left behind – and on close inspection of the tools, we discovered these Stone Age herders were busy grinding animal bones, wild plants and pigments while their meat was cooking.

Our results are published in a new paper in PLOS ONE.

Herders and artists

Our earlier research has shown that between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago much of Arabia was far wetter and greener than it is today.

Grasslands spread, and trees and shrubs grew near water sources. Lakes formed and provided water. Herders lived around these lakes and led their cattle, sheep and goats to the best pastures.

These Stone Age herders were also skilled artists. They carved thousands of images into rock surfaces on cliffs and boulders, documenting their daily lives.

The rock art shows Stone Age people hunting gazelles, wild donkeys and ibex, and it also shows their most precious possession: their cattle.

Stone Age camp sites

Archaeological sites from this period consist of collections of small fireplaces. The herders seem to have been extremely mobile, moving around the landscape with their herds, searching for pasture and water.

On these routes they made small camps near lakes, returning to the same places again and again as the years passed and the seasons turned.

Read more:
Research reveals humans ventured out of Africa repeatedly as early as 400,000 years ago, to visit the rolling grasslands of Arabia

A few years ago, we discovered one such camp at Jebel Oraf, near the Jubbah Oasis, in the Nefud Desert of Northern Saudi Arabia.

On the shores of a small, ancient lake, we discovered 170 small fireplaces. We excavated 17 of these fireplaces and radiocarbon dating showed that most of them are between 7,200 and 6,800 years old.

What surprised us was that the small camps were full of grinding tools. Most of them had been broken into smaller pieces, and then placed on top of the fire. Some had had holes drilled into them to attach a rope to help carry them.

Although people were moving a lot, they took heavy grinding stones weighing up to three kilograms with them. It’s not clear how the grinding stones were transported – either they were carried by people or perhaps they were strapped to their cattle. Regardless, these grinding tools seem to have been very important to them.

Today the Jubbah Oasis is extremely arid and for archaeologists that means organic remains don’t survive. This made it very difficult to find out what the purpose of these grindstones was.

There are no plant remains in the archaeological sites, and animal bones only survive in small fragments. So, we turned to microscopic analysis in order to help determine the function of the grinding tools.

Microscopic traces

In experiments we find that grinding different materials, such as bone, pigment, or plants, leaves distinctive microscopic marks on the surface of the grinding tools. These marks, including striations, fractures, rounding of individual quartz grains and different types of polish, can be seen with a microscope.

We looked at the Stone Age grinding tools to identify similar traces, and from them to determine what materials were ground.

Our microscopic study showed the grindstones were used for a range of different purposes.

Some were used to process bones. We know the fires were used to cook the meat of cattle, sheep and goats, and of game such as oryx and ostrich.

We think the herders broke open animal bones to get to the marrow. Bone marrow is high in fat, and this would have helped them to get extra nutrition.

Our analysis also showed they ground plants. None of the actual plant remains have survived, so we don’t know if they ground wild plants to make simple breads, or if they pounded plant fibres to make baskets or rope.

Both would have been important for their lifestyle. They moved a lot and bread would have been easy to preserve and carry around. Baskets and rope would have been used for storage and transport and also to construct simple, transportable shelters.

The grinding tools also showed pigment was processed. Red shale, a rock found in nearby mountains, can be used like a crayon or ground into red powder and mixed into paint.

Painted rock art doesn’t often survive. Over the centuries it is washed off by rain and wind.

Only one painted rock art site from the Neolithic survives near Jebel Oraf. It shows cattle with beautiful long horns.

The grinding stones are now evidence that painted art may once have been a lot more widespread.

Valuable tools

Our analysis of the grinding marks also showed the tools were often used for different materials over time. They were clearly valuable and used as much as possible.

At the end they were broken into smaller pieces. In some cases we were able to piece back together up to 12 fragments. We’re still not sure why the discarded tools were placed on the fire – perhaps they used them to cook or to dry their meat.

Grinding stones appear to have been an important tool for mobile herders 7,000 years ago. Although they would have been hard to carry, these tools allowed Stone Age herders to produce food resources and plant materials that were vital to their highly mobile lives.

Read more:
Enigmatic ruins across Arabia hosted ancient ritual sacrifices

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Stone Age herders transported heavy rock tools to grind animal bones, plants and pigment – https://theconversation.com/stone-age-herders-transported-heavy-rock-tools-to-grind-animal-bones-plants-and-pigment-214838