With more of us living into old age than at any other time, dementia is increasing steadily worldwide, with major individual, family, societal and economic consequences.
Treatment remains largely ineffective and aspects of the underlying pathophysiology are still unclear. But there is good evidence that neurodegenerative diseases – and their manifestation as dementia – are not an inevitable consequence of ageing.
COVID and other viral infections are centrally involved in insults to the brain and subsequent neurodegeneration. COVID-positive outpatients have a more than three-fold higher risk of Alzheimer’s and more than two-fold higher risk of Parkinson’s disease.
A study of almost three million found risks of psychiatric disorders following COVID infection returned to baseline after one to two months. But other disorders, including “brain fog” and dementia, were still higher than among controls two years later.
Among more than six million adults older than 65, individuals with COVID were at a 70% higher risk than the uninfected for a new diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease within a year of testing positive for COVID.
More than 150,000 people with COVID and 11 million controls have been involved in a study of long-term consequences of acute COVID infection. A year after infection, there was an overall 40% higher risk (an additional 71 cases per 1000 people) of neurologic disorders, including memory problems (80% higher risk) and Alzheimer’s disease (two-fold higher risk). These risks were elevated even among those not hospitalised for acute COVID.
SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, can invade brain tissue. Other viruses can also cause direct damage to the brain. A study of almost two million people showed the risk of Alzheimer’s was markedly lower in those who had been vaccinated against influenza.
The cost of dementia
Dementia is characterised by progressively deteriorating cognitive function. This involves memory, thinking, orientation, comprehension, language and judgement, often accompanied by changes in mood and emotional control.
It is one of the major causes of disability among older people. Worldwide prevalence exceeds 55 million and there are almost ten million new cases annually. It is the seventh leading cause of death. In 2019, the estimated global cost of dementia was US$1.3 trillion and rising.
The best known form of dementia – Alzheimer’s – was first described in 1907. Dementia is generally described as developing in three stages:
impairment of memory, losing track of time and becoming lost in familiar places
further deterioration of memory with forgetfulness of names and recent events, becoming confused at home, losing communication skills and personal care habits, repeated questioning, wandering
increased difficulty walking, progressing to inactivity, marked memory loss, involving failure to recognise relatives and friends, disorientation in time and place, changes in behaviour, including lack of personal care and emergence of aggression.
There are no cures and no resounding treatment successes. Management involves support for patients and carers to optimise physical activity, stimulate memory and treat accompanying physical or mental illness.
But we do know about many of the causes of dementia and therefore about prevention. In addition to viral infections, there are at least four other contributing causes: cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes (especially if untreated), traumatic brain injury and alcohol.
In the absence of effective treatment, prevention is an important goal. The association with viral infections means we should pay careful attention to vaccine availability and uptake (for influenza, COVID and any future variants) and place greater emphasis on combatting misinformation regarding vaccines.
The association with atherosclerosis and stroke, as well as diabetes, supports primary prevention that involves healthier diets (plant-based diets low in salt and saturated fats), physical activity and weight control.
Alcohol consumption is a major problem globally. We have allowed high intake to be normalised and talk about no more than two glasses per day as though that is innocuous. Despite the myth of some beneficial aspects of alcohol, the safest intake is zero drinks per week.
This requires a complete national rethink around the availability and acceptability of alcohol as well as assistance with alcohol addiction and treatment of alcohol-related disorders.
Traumatic brain injury is associated with sport and, more importantly, falls and car crashes. It is recognised as a global priority and there is increasing awareness of the preventability of falls among older people. The management of head injuries is being ramped up in contact sports.
However, data on the impact of best management of the initial injury on subsequent risk of dementia are lacking and risk remains elevated even 30 years after the initial trauma.
The evidence that dementia has preventable causes, including viral infection, should better inform policy and our own behaviour.
John Donne Potter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Eliud Kipchoge crosses the line to win the Berlin Marathon on September 25, 2022.Christoph Soeder/AP
Sixty-nine seconds.
In that time, you could reheat a cuppa in the microwave or get halfway through brushing your teeth. But for Eliud Kipchoge, the greatest men’s marathoner of all time, his life’s work has come down to a cruel clutch of seconds.
After surpassing his own world record in Berlin on Sunday, 69 seconds is all that separates him from breaking the historic “sub-2” barrier – that is, completing a full marathon (42.195 kilometres) in under two hours.
Kipchoge’s new world record of 2h, 1m and 9s was an astonishing achievement, even by his own lofty standards. It was 30s faster than his previous record (also set in Berlin, in 2018) and the second-largest lowering of the world record since 2003 (Kipchoge himself has the largest margin).
Is Kipchoge well on the way to breaking the elusive sub-2 hour marathon barrier?
The moment Eliud Kipchoge broke his world record in Berlin, on September 25, 2022. Omer Messinger/AP Images for Abbott
But wait, didn’t he already go sub-2?
First, let’s go back a step.
Back in October, 2019, Kipchoge took part in a commercial enterprise set up entirely to see him make history. Running 4.4 laps around Vienna’s Prater Hauptallee, behind a phalanx of elite distance runners set out in exquisite formation, Kipchoge kept up an alarming pace of 2m and 52s per kilometre for 42.195km.
The clock stopped to euphoric crowds and a seemingly transcendental Kipchoge; he’d smashed the sub-2 barrier with a time of 1h 59m and 40s. But as Kipchoge himself knew, an asterisk forever sits next to this time.
Kipchoge celebrates his sub-2 record in Vienna in 2019. EPA/Christian Bruna
The International Association of Athletics Federation’s rules stipulate the event must be a sanctioned race, pacers can’t substitute in and out of the event at whim, and nutrition must be taken from stationary tables (not bikes riding next to the runner as Kipchoge did in Vienna). Each of these rules was set aside for the “historic” attempt in 2019.
You may think this is overreaching by officials. But the fact is ignoring these rules does confer an advantage. And at this end of the competition, seconds determine the whole ball game.
So for all the wonder of that day, the official record remained that which Kipchoge set in 2018 in Berlin: 2h 1m and 39s. That is, until Sunday.
Using statistical tools, we can estimate not only the average tendency for the fastest marathon time to drop over the course of history, but also the likelihood that a given time will be run on a given day.
The approach I take is to fit a mathematical model to the trend of marathon records improving over time, as shown in the figure below. I can not only make predictions (by extending the fitted trend forward), but can also calculate the likelihood of a new record appearing below the average fitted trend.
It’s here the statistics get interesting.
In one previous prediction, I calculated the official sub-2 barrier would not be broken until May 2032.
Specifically, in this scenario I assumed it would be set by a highly exceptional runner even more talented than Kipchoge. This fictional runner, let’s call them runner X, would have not only accumulated the performance gains of previous generations, but would be exceptional within their own generation too.
In likelihood terms, runner X is assumed to be a “1 in 10” runner – forever navigating the 1 in 10 likelihood line of marathon progression as shown in the figure below. Runner X improves their time and gets a little faster every week, eventually crossing the sub-2 barrier in May, 2032.
Modelling the historical male marathon WR progression, before adding in the new WR set on 25 Sep 2022. Author created
Importantly, this figure shows predictions before Kipchoge’s newest record is added to the modelling, though we place his record on the figure (as “+”) to contextualise his performance.
Based on this modelling, if runner X turned up in Berlin on Sunday they would already be skating closer to the sub-2 line than Kipchoge managed – finishing at 2h 32s or better (about 37s faster than Kipchoge). You can see this time marked as the square in the figure.
But marathoners are not robots. And the monumental cog of any grand human endeavour moves forward in exhilarating leaps, not metronomic steps.
When will we see an official sub-2?
Until now, I’ve discussed predictions based on records from before Sunday’s run. What happens if I add Kipchoge’s newest record run into the annals of records past, and let the model reassess?
Here are the results.
Modelling the historical male marathon WR progression. Author created.
Two insights fall out of this new analysis. First, the goalposts have moved – substantially.
With Kipchoge’s new record included, runner X’s chance of breaking sub-2 has moved forward nine years from May 2032 to April 2023 – next year! A single data point has shifted the expectations significantly.
The second observation is also important. Have a look at the world records (the blue markers) in the plot and you’ll notice since the 1980s they all fall within the main alley, near the bold grey line.
This model tells us no runner has broached the 1 in 4 likelihood line in more than 40 years. Kipchoge runs near it, but even he falls closer to the average than to the “extraordinary”.
In other words, when trying to realistically predict when we might see a runner break the sub-2 barrier, perhaps we should look at when this would happen for someone like Kipchoge who runs close to the 1 in 4 line – rather than someone like runner X.
That brings us back to the important question: when would a runner of Kipchoge’s calibre break the sub-2 barrier?
Based on the current world record data, a runner as extraordinary as Kipchoge will demand the world’s patience, with an estimated time of November, 2031.
The statistics present us with a choice. Either we look to a runner in the mould of Kipchoge and expect the official sub-2 breakthrough in 2031, or we hold onto the hope of a seemingly impossible runner X to emerge and achieve this in the next 12 months.
Perhaps Kipchoge is teaching us something important: there is such a thing as extraordinary enough.
Life is full of the extraordinary. With elite marathon running, we can attempt to quantify it. In this rarefied realm Kipchoge is king, and perhaps the most extraordinary aspect of all is his unfettered joy in the running.
Simon D Angus receives funding from the Paul Ramsay Foundation, the Judith Neilson Institute, and the Defence, Science & Technology Group (Department of Defence). He is a co-founder of SoDa Laboratories, Monash Business School, and co-founder and the Director of the Monash IP Observatory, Monash University, and co-founder and director of KASPR Datahaus Pty Ltd. He serves on the board of City on a Hill Movement Pty Ltd.
Common colds are caused by viruses. There are no effective cures, and antibiotics do not work on viruses, so treatment is targeted at managing the symptoms until your immune system has cleared the cold.
So why might someone go to a doctor at all for a cold?
Well, occasionally a cold might turn into something more serious requiring assessment and specific treatment, and a GP visit could be warranted. Or you may just want reassurance and advice.
Problems arise when there too many unwarranted visits to GPs for cold symptoms.
Studies have shown antibiotics are still prescribed widely for viral colds, even though they don’t help, and this contributes to antibiotic resistance. It hastens the arrival of an era when many antibiotics simply don’t work at all.
Some people are more prone to colds, but we don’t know exactly why.
The usual cold persists about one week, although 25% last two weeks. In one study with 346 adults, the infection lasted 9.5 to 11 days.
Cold symptoms may last longer in younger children. One study showed an average duration of colds ranged from 6.6 to 9 days. But symptoms lasted more than 15 days in 6.5% of 1-3 year old children in home care, and 13.1% of 2-3 year old children in day care.
A cough tends to last longer than other symptoms, and often beyond the actual viral infection. The average duration of a cough is about 17.8 days.
Discoloured mucus in snot or cough is a common trigger for requesting antibiotics from a GP. But as we know, antibiotics are useless against a virus. They only work against bacterial infection.
In fact, thick or coloured nasal mucus secretion is common following colds. Only a tiny proportion involve bacterial infection.
When it happens, this is termed acute rhinosinusitis. But antibiotics are not recommended unless it lasts more than ten to 14 days and there are signs of bacterial sinusitis infection, such as:
symptoms worsening after improvement in the original cold
return of fever and
strong facial pain.
A prolonged cough after colds is usually caused by an irritated throat or the clearing of sticky mucus coming down from the nose. The cough may sound moist (so wrongly called “chesty”) due to the phlegm, but only small amounts of phlegm are coughed up.
Yellow or green coloured mucus is often interpreted as a sign of bacterial infection.
But yellow or green sputum alone does not mean you have a serious bacterial infection. One study found being prescribed antibiotics under these circumstances failed to shorten recovery time.
Nasal saline sprays and washes can be used to rinse out the nose and sinuses and possibly shorten rhinosinusitis and cough after colds.
Could it just be hayfever, or another underlying issue?
Hayfever or allergic rhinitis is a common cause for prolonged symptoms after a cold, especially cough and nasal congestion and maybe also sneezing.
The damage in the upper airways following a viral infection may allow airborne allergens to trigger hayfever. Self-medicating with antihistamines, nasal saline spray or intranasal steroids is worthwhile if allergic rhinitis is suspected.
There may be other reasons for persistence of cough, such as exacerbation of underlying asthma or chronic lung disease. If so, this may require a visit to your GP.
What about bronchitis or pneumonia?
Many people worry about developing a chest infection after a cold.
Acute bronchitis is a self-limiting infectious disease characterised by acute cough with or without sputum but without signs of pneumonia (such as high temperatures and feeling breathless). Most acute bronchitis cases are caused by viruses. Antibiotics are often prescribed, but produce no significant clinical improvement compared with placebo, so are not recommended.
Pneumonia is a potentially serious secondary disease that may follow an episode of flu in a small number of cases, but is relatively rare following a cold. Symptoms and signs of pneumonia feature heavily in the list of warning signs that signal the need for a medical assessment.
Sometimes, contacting your GP is a good idea. Shutterstock
When should I seek medical help for a cough or a cold?
Contact a GP if you experience:
shortness of breath or trouble breathing
feeling faint or dizzy
chest pain
dehydration
fever or cough symptoms that improve but then return or worsen
worsening of chronic medical conditions such as asthma.
This is not a complete list, but may guide you on what to expect and what to watch out for.
You might also contact your GP (perhaps for a telehealth consult) if you are finding your symptoms very unpleasant, or are concerned your condition is more serious or prolonged than expected. You might just need reassurance and education about self care options.
David King does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The oceans absorb more than 90% of all extra heat trapped by the emissions we’ve produced by burning fossil fuels. This heat is enormous. It’s as if we exploded an atom bomb underwater, every second of every day.
The ocean isn’t warming at the same rate everywhere. We know the heat is concentrated in the fast, narrow currents that flow along the east coasts of the world’s continents and funnel warm water from the tropics down towards the poles.
In the Southern Hemisphere, these currents – known as the western boundary currents – are warming faster than the global average at their southern limits, creating ocean warming hotspots.
Until now, we haven’t known exactly why. These western boundary currents are particularly important in the Southern Hemisphere, which is more than 80% ocean compared to just 60% for the Northern Hemisphere.
Our new research has found a vital part of the puzzle: strong easterly winds in the mid-latitudes are moving south, driving the western boundary currents further south and leading to faster ocean warming in these areas.
What are these currents and why do they matter?
These streams of warm water are like fast-flowing rivers in the oceans. They flow rapidly in a narrow band along the western side of the world’s major ocean basins, passing densely populated coastlines in South Africa, Australia and Brazil where hundreds of millions of people live.
These currents often play a role in regulating local climates. Think of the most well known of these currents, the Northern Hemisphere’s Gulf Stream, which has for millennia ensured Europe is much warmer than it would otherwise be given its latitude.
In the Southern Hemisphere, we have three major sub-tropical western boundary currents, the Agulhas Current in the Indian Ocean, the East Australian Current in the Pacific Ocean and the Brazil Current in the Atlantic Ocean.
Ocean currents tend to move in very large circles, with currents running down the western boundaries ferrying heat from the tropics. NASA, CC BY-SA
In recent decades, these currents have become hotspots for ocean warming, carrying larger and larger amounts of heat south. Since 1993, the East Australian Current has moved southward at around 33 kilometres per decade, while the Brazil Current is moving south by around 46 kilometres per decade. The currents send heat and moisture into the atmosphere as they flow. In their southernmost reaches, the heat they carry displaces the colder ocean and warms it rapidly. These areas of the ocean are warming two to three times faster than the global average.
As the currents carry more heat energy, they also generate more ocean eddies – large rotating spirals of water spinning off from the main current. If you’ve looked closely at the way a fast flowing stream flows, you’ll see small eddies forming and dissolving all the time.
Why do these eddies matter? Because they’re the way heat actually ends up in the cold seas. As the eddies get faster and more loaded with heat, they act as path-breakers, carrying heat further south and eventually into the deep ocean. This is why NASA is soon to launch a new satellite to track these eddies, responsible for up to half of all heat transfer to the deep.
Our team have a research cruise planned for September next year aboard RV Investigator, Australia’s research vessel, to explore eddies under the path of this new satellite. This will shed new light on eddy processes in the warming ocean.
Western boundary currents are driven by large-scale winds blowing across ocean basins.
You might have heard of the trade winds. These are the winds traders and mariners used for centuries to go from east to west, taking advantage of winds blowing constantly from the southeast across the tropics and subtropics.
Further south, the strongest winds are the prevailing westerlies, better known by sailors as the Roaring Forties. These westerly winds carry cold fronts and rain, and often stray north to dump rain over Australia.
These westerlies can change track over time, shifting northwards and southwards, depending on a pattern known as the Southern Annular Mode.
At present, this belt of strong westerly winds has strengthened and moved southward in what’s known as the mode’s positive phase. Since 1940, this climate pattern has increasingly favoured this positive phase, which tends to bring drier conditions to Australia.
When we analysed changes in the tropical trade winds over the past three decades, we found they too had shifted poleward 18 km per decade since 1993.
So what does this mean? The trade winds have been pushed further south while the Southern Annual Mode is increasing. As they move south, they drive the western boundary currents further southward.
Even though these currents are carrying ever-warmer water southwards from the tropics, they have not actually become stronger. Rather, they’ve become less stable in their southern regions as they’ve elongated. As the currents are pushed south, they transfer heat energy into the cold seas through chaotic eddies mixing the warmer water with the cold. These eddies aren’t small – they’re between 20 and 200 kilometres wide.
This visualisation shows the Eastern Australian Current and eddy currents spinning off it. NASA, CC BY-SA
What does this mean for people and nature?
Western boundary currents have long played a key role in stabilising our climate, by carrying heat southwards and moderating coastal climates. As these currents warp and become less predictable, they will change how heat is distributed, how gases are dissolved in seawater, and how nutrients are spread across the oceans. In turn, this will mean major changes to local weather patterns and marine ecosystems.
More intense eddies are likely to warm our coastal oceans, too, by moving warm waters closer to shore.
For many people, these currents are out of sight, out of mind. They won’t stay that way. As these vital currents change, they will change the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people who live along the coasts of South Africa, Australia and Brazil.
You’re probably familiar with the sight of a lillipilly bush. This hardy Australian staple – a glossy evergreen bearing powder-puff flowers and clusters of bright berries – features in many a garden hedge.
But you may not know this humble native has spread across the globe in waves of emigration, adaptation and evolution. Almost 1,200 species of lillipilly are now found in rainforests across the tropics and subtropics of Africa, Asia and the Pacific.
Our research helped reconstruct the evolutionary history of lillipillies in unprecedented detail. We show how lillipillies evolved in Australia and now form the largest genus of trees in the world.
Lillipillies are one of Australia’s great gifts to the natural world. But the story of these homegrown heroes may be taking a grim turn.
Show off: the lillipilly is a glossy evergreen bearing clusters of bright berries. Shutterstock
A plant on the move
Lillipillies began their international adventures about 17 million years ago. At that time, the Australian continent (which together with New Guinea is known as the Sahul Shelf) was colliding with Southeast Asia (known as the Sunda Shelf) following its breakup with Antarctica. This breakup was the final dramatic act of the fragmentation of Gondwana.
The collision provided opportunity for biotic exchange between the northern and southern hemispheres. Many plants and animals moved south to the Sahul Shelf and prospered in the new lands. Lillipillies are one of the few lineages that moved in the other direction.
Along with our songbirds, lillipillies stand as a rare example of an Australian group that set out from these shores and achieved major evolutionary success abroad.
Lillipillies are a magnet for pollinators. Shutterstock
Lillipillies light up our lives when they flower and fruit. Their showy white, cream or red flowers are followed by succulent red or purple berries. They’re a magnet for pollinators, helping fill our gardens with the songs of insects and birds.
The riberry, Syzygium luehmannii, is one of the most commonly grown and stunning garden species. It produces heavy crops of delicious fruit rich in antioxidants and prized by chefs.
Many species in the genus are used as food and medicine by Indigenous people, and potent antibacterials have been identified in the leaves of some species. Cloves, a favourite spice of home bakers, are the dried flower buds of an Indonesian lillipilly – the aptly named Syzygium aromaticum.
About 75 species of lillipilly are native to all Australian states and territories except South Australia and Tasmania.
The greatest concentration of species is in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area of northeast Queensland. About 50 species are found there, half of which occur nowhere else on Earth.
And almost 1,200 species of lillipilly are now found in rainforests across the tropics and subtropics of Africa, Asia and the Pacific, including Australia.
As is common in the tropics, species new to science are regularly discovered and named. For example, almost 30 new species of lillipilly have been named from New Guinea in the last two years – and many more are likely awaiting scientific discovery.
But how did lillipillies achieve such international success? Our research team decided to find out.
The powder-puff flowers of lillipillies light up our lives when they flower. Shutterstock
Peering into the past
The research, led by colleagues in Singapore, involved analysing the genomes of hundreds of living species of lillipillies.
Similarities and differences in the structure of genomes can reveal how closely related the species are. Using that knowledge, we can build up a picture of their genealogy – the “family tree” that connects ancestral species and their descendants.
These techniques also allow us to estimate the amount of genetic change that has occurred along the branches of the genealogy. And, if we’re lucky enough to have an accurately dated fossil of an ancestral species – as we do for lillipillies – we can calculate the rate of genetic change even more accurately.
All this allowed us to peer deeply into the past and reveal the events that set the lillipillies on their global journey.
We already knew lillipillies evolved in Australia and emigrated into the rainforests of Africa, Asia and the Pacific. Our research showed this dispersion occurred in at least a dozen distinct waves.
Each emigrant lineage diversified rapidly and successfully in its new environment. This resulted in the nearly 1,200 lillipilly species found worldwide today – more than any other tree genus. In contrast, their relatives the eucalypts have largely remained only a local success story.
Australia’s eucalypts haven’t conquered the world as lillipillies have. Shutterstock
A sad twist?
Lillipillies may be one of Australia’s most successful botanical exports, but their future, like that of many rainforest plants globally, is threatened by habitat degradation and climate change.
The Magenta Cherry (Syzygium paniculatum), for example, is endangered by coastal development in New South Wales. And the Brotherly Love Lillipilly (Syzygium fratris), found only on Queensland’s highest mountain, is highly vulnerable to climate change.
Myrtle rust – seen here on lillypilly leaves – may be the most potent threat of all. Wikimedia
But a devastating disease – myrtle rust – may be the most potent threat of all. It’s caused by an introduced fungal pathogen and kills new foliage, flowers and fruits of plants in the family Myrtaceae, to which lillipillies belong.
Myrtle rust arrived in Australia in 2010 and spread rapidly in the wind and via human activity. Already, it threatens some plant species with extinction. Lillipilly species have been damaged by this serious disease, though none are under immediate extinction threat yet.
Lillipillies are an Australian origin story. They’re a major contributor to rainforest biodiversity and important to Indigenous cultures. And they’ve endeared themselves to generations of gardeners and cooks.
Given all this, lillipillies deserve to be recognised – and protected – as Aussie icons.
Though they’d be the last to admit it, Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton have more in common than you might expect. They’re both unapologetic pragmatists.
Albanese, a left fighter in the distant past, is the prime minister who looks for consensus where it’s possible and useful, including with his opponent.
Dutton, who built a reputation as a head kicker of the right, as the opposition leader is seeking to reinvent himself as a more nuanced player, willing to negotiate when circumstances or interests demand or justify it.
Hence the two have met on the middle ground over the government’s planned National Anti-Corruption Commission (the NACC).
Even before the legislation was introduced on Wednesday, the government effectively had Dutton’s backing, coming out of direct discussions between him and Albanese.
One aspect on which they’re in accord is the issue that’s brought the sharpest negative reaction from critics: when the commission can hold public hearings.
The NACC would have open hearings only in “exceptional circumstances”. That’s the Victorian Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC) model, rather than the wider discretion given to the NSW’s Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC).
Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus, saying NACC hearings would be mostly private, points out that’s actually the case with ICAC – only 5% of its hearings are public. (We might get a different impression because ICAC’s public hearings have been so spectacular – think those involving Gladys Berejiklian.)
The government has taken on board the “reputational damage” public hearings can do, even before, or in the absence of, adverse findings.
Those wanting a less restrictive approach include a number of crossbenchers.
The small players might look more principled, but they also have less at risk. Among politicians, it’s those in government (at present, and in the past and future) who are potentially most likely to be in the frame to face investigations.
The major parties have a common interest in putting limits on the circumstances in which there are public hearings. (Remember that only a few years ago both Labor and Liberals were against a federal integrity body, while the Greens were early advocates.)
Some on the crossbench are also annoyed at being effectively marginalised by what amounts to a government-opposition agreement because (assuming the consensus holds) crossbench votes won’t be needed in the Senate.
Dreyfus says the government will look carefully at what comes out of the parliamentary inquiry into the legislation. He says he welcomes suggestions on who should head the commission, insisting the government doesn’t have a name for the job.
Given the amount of power the commission will have, it is vital its head has bipartisan support.
That power will extend to whether and when it might look at “rorts” involving ministerial behaviour in grants schemes.
Dreyfus declines to be drawn on the NACC’s remit here, saying “there’s a spectrum in these discretionary grant programs.
“At one end of the discretionary grant programs what you might have is no more than a minister choosing to disagree with a recommendation of a senior public servant. At the other end of the spectrum you’ve got absolute corruption occurring. Whether or not that’s a proper description is going to be a matter for the National Anti-Corruption Commission.”
He refuses to say where the former government’s sports rorts scheme might fall on that spectrum.
After the short parliamentary inquiry, we’ll likely see a repeat of what happened on the climate legislation. With that, the government accepted crossbench tinkering – to be seen to be consultative – but did not make significant changes.
Dutton’s effort to redefine himself is somewhat more sophisticated than when, launching a coup against Malcolm Turnbull in 2018 (which ended in Scott Morrison becoming leader), he talked about smiling more.
His supporters argue that in government Dutton was more flexible than he appeared, citing his drive for a solution on same sex marriage, but his public image was unrelentingly negative.
As leader Dutton is picking his fights (he opposed the government’s climate legislation) while being willing to co-operate in some areas.
He’s not going out of his way to defend certain aspects of the Morrison government, made easier by the fact he did not have a great deal of time for Morrison as prime minister.
He’s also on the front foot with the media, despite much of it being rugged territory for him. He gave an interview for this week’s Four Corners profile, which probably meant the program worked better for him than if he’d boycotted it.
It’s notable that with the NACC Dutton declared a position ahead of the legislation going to the Coalition party room. Earlier, he had acted pre-emptively on the climate legislation (for which he received some criticism internally).
While he has to be careful with the party room, Dutton is also in a strong position within his own side. He can’t be too high handed – that could trigger white-anting. But the parlous state of the opposition frontbench means he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder – there are no challengers.
By the same token he probably has only one election shot, so he might as well lead from the front.
But both the attempted reinvention, and the challenge of bridging the broad divide within his own ranks, will be extremely difficult for him.
He is in a near impossible position in handling the government’s referendum for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. Opinions in the Coalition range across the board. A trenchant critic is high-profile new Indigenous senator Jacinta Price.
There has been some speculation the opposition could adopt no formal position. That would reduce the chances of the referendum getting through but put less strain on Coalition unity.
As it ended on Wednesday the last sitting before the October 25 budget, the government had every reason to be pleased with how parliament is going. It has a number of main items from its election agenda introduced and some of them already passed. The NACC is set to go through in November.
It has the blessing of a benign Senate, where it needs the Greens and one more vote to pass contested legislation. The Greens are noisy critics and independent David Pocock, the progressive to whom the government looks for support, is politely vocal. But in the end, on most issues the pivotal votes in the Senate have nowhere else to go.
Politically, the government is travelling as smoothly as it could hope. But politics is only part of the story.
This week the OECD downgraded its forecasts for Australian and world economic growth next year, and those with mortgages braced for another interest rate rise next week. As welcome and important as the NACC reform is, those economic realities will be more front of mind for most Australians.
Michelle Grattan ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.
Medicare card numbers are the latest personal details to be exposed as part of the Optus data breach.
Optus has confirmed this affects 14,900 valid Medicare numbers that have not expired, and a further 22,000 expired card numbers.
But this isn’t the first time Australians’ Medicare numbers have been exposed. And some privacy and cybersecurity experts have long been concerned about the security of our health data.
Here’s what you can do if you’re concerned about the latest Medicare breach, and what needs to happen next.
What’s the big deal?
Your Medicare number gives you access to subsidised services across Australia’s health system. Most Australians have a number, whether or not they use these services.
Your Medicare card (as a plastic card or digitally, on your phone) is an official identifier. So alongside a driver’s licence, tax file number, birth certificate and passport, it can also be used as “proof of identity”. You may have supplied your Medicare number when opening a bank account, or signing up for a phone plan.
The idea is to minimise the chance people are using fake identities to wrongfully gain benefits from governments and business, including taking part in criminal activities such as money laundering.
Businesses and agencies are not meant to match your Medicare number with other data (eroding your privacy) other than in exceptional circumstances.
But they commonly accept sight of the physical/digital card bearing the number as proof of who you claim to be and risk data breaches by retaining copies of what they saw. Optus was such a business.
What should happen to protect your Medicare number?
In theory, your Medicare number is protected by a number of different types of legislation – both national and at the state/territory level.
There are privacy laws. These are meant to prevent businesses and government agencies from unauthorised use of Medicare and other official identifiers for profiling people. These laws are also meant to prevent undisclosed sharing with other entities, such as individuals or businesses.
Then there are cybersecurity and other criminal laws. These also aim to prevent unauthorised access, sale and sharing of your Medicare number and other data (known as metadata) stored by telecommunication providers.
Medicare numbers have been breached before, in 2017. An official inquiry noted trade in stolen Medicare numbers on the dark web.
The 2017 breach was apparently much larger, but the Optus numbers may grow as the investigation continues.
Experts have also raised concern about the government’s authorised release in 2016 of apparently de-identified health data. In fact, patient details could be identified, using a number of simple steps.
These two earlier examples should have meant both health agencies and businesses have taken extra care about their obligations to safeguard health data.
Unauthorised use of a Medicare number doesn’t necessarily result in large-scale identity crime.
For instance, Minister for Government Services Bill Shorten has said a Medicare number alone cannot unlock access to someone’s myGov account (and therefore access to someone’s welfare or tax details).
However, the Optus data breach – and future data breaches in the public and private sector – does provide Australian and overseas criminals with a set of identifiers (including passport and driver’s licence numbers), that can be used for a range of identity crimes, such as impersonating someone else.
Optus is advising affected customers to replace their Medicare card, at no cost, via their Medicare online account at myGov, the Express Plus Medicare mobile app, or by calling Medicare on 132 011.
This needs to be accompanied by a hard-hitting independent inquiry of what happened at Optus. This requires IT expertise, which the Office of the Australian Information Commission may not have. Such an inquiry would also demonstrate Optus’ commitment to learn from any failures.
As we have seen before, businesses and government agencies cannot assume a data breach “won’t happen to them”. We need to find out what happened at Optus to ensure the future privacy of some of our most personal data.
Dr Arnold is currently finalising a monograph on identity crime. He is a former director of the Australian Privacy Foundation
Eligibility for the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) came under scrutiny this week, after NDIS minister Bill Shorten said he was considering whether a diagnosis of attention-defecit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) should grant automatic eligibility for the NDIS.
The minister since walked back these comments, with a spokesperson explaining “the government currently has no plans to make changes” to this list.
However, these comments have shone a spotlight on how eligibility for the NDIS is determined. It should be based on an individual’s strengths, needs and functional capacity.
What’s the NDIS for?
The NDIS was a landmark reform of Australian disability systems. Previously administered by different systems across states and territories, the NDIS created a joined-up system across Australia.
The NDIS was passed into law in the final months of the Gillard government in 2013. The Act itself remains a visionary and progressive piece of legislation.
A critical element of the Act is its adoption of a “diagnosis agnostic” stance to disability. People would be provided access to the NDIS based on the level of functional impairment they experience, rather than whether or not they have a particular diagnosis.
This is a gold-standard approach to supporting people with disability because it helps tailor supports to the needs and desires of each individual person.
Diagnosis and the NDIS
Despite “diagnosis agnosticism” being a core component of the NDIS Act, this philosophy was lost in the NDIS rollout.
A critical moment was the NDIS’s publication of a list of diagnoses (the “List A”) that are likely to meet the disability requirements for eligibility into the NDIS.
The list was intended to provide guidance about who may be eligible for the NDIS.
However, it also had unintended consequences. The focus became on what diagnosis someone may have, rather than their individual support needs. This was the complete opposite of the intentions in the NDIS Act.
A key example is the diagnosis of autism. An autism diagnosis was included on List A, which signalled children with this diagnosis would receive swifter access to supports through the NDIS.
However, the inclusion of autism on List A also changed the way practitioners diagnosed. There is evidence, for example, that practitioners started diagnosing autism in children more prematurely than they usually would, in order to help those children access support through the NDIS.
Currently, 55% of all NDIS participants aged 18 years or younger have a primary diagnosis of autism. Because of the unique aspects of NDIS eligibility, it is difficult to compare this figure with other jurisdictions. However, based on population prevalence figures alone, we would not anticipate that more than half of children eligible for disability supports would have a diagnosis of autism.
This doesn’t mean these children do not have important and urgent support needs. There should also be no blame whatsoever on parents for pursuing all avenues to provide their child the best and fastest support they can receive.
What this does illustrate is how policy decisions within systems such as the NDIS can lead to inequities in access to support that changes family and practitioner behaviours.
What’s the problem with a diagnosis determining eligibility?
In some instances, a diagnosis is a highly precise indicator of functional impairment, such as in the case of permanent blindness. An inability to see will result in clear challenges in almost all aspects of life, and this disability will result in significantly reduced functional capacity.
However, neurodevelopmental conditions, such as autism and ADHD, present quite a different case. Because there is no biological marker for these conditions, diagnosis is based on observation of certain behaviours.
In the case of ADHD, the behaviours include difficulties paying attention (such as finding it hard to concentrate on tasks), being hyperactive (difficulty sitting still), and problems with controlling impulses (saying or doing things before thinking them through).
Importantly, ADHD does not result in the same level of functional impairment for everyone. ADHD behaviours may lead to significant functional impairment for some people but not others.
Similarly, there will be people who do not meet the diagnostic threshold for ADHD (or autism), but who experience significant functional difficulties in day-to-day life.
The inclusion of ADHD on List A would again embed an imprecise indicator of functional impairment within the NDIS architecture, which will further entrench inequity in access. It may also drive changes to family health-seeking behaviour and practitioner diagnostic practices.
What is the solution for determining NDIS eligibility?
For neurodevelopmental conditions such as ADHD, there needs to be a return to the core principles of the NDIS Act.
For eligibility, the question the NDIS must ask is who an individual is – that is, their strengths, challenges and functional capacity – rather than what diagnosis they may have.
Critically, in the context of ADHD, a return to this core principle will not restrict access to the NDIS. Rather, this approach will provide those people with ADHD diagnosis who experience functional impairments better access to the NDIS.
The Labor government has foreshadowed an enquiry into the NDIS. This key issue of eligibility should be among the host of areas this review should examine to ensure equity in access, and help the NDIS fulfil its promise as a truly visionary reform for Australia.
In the 15 years to 2020, Victoria’s emissions fell by almost 30%, according to a new government report. You might wonder how is this possible, given most of the state’s brown coal stations are still running and we’re still driving petrol cars.
One reason: the closure of Hazelwood, a power station once responsible for up to 15% of the state’s emissions before it closed in 2017. Another is that renewable power has come gushing into the grid. Just under 30% of the state’s power was renewable in 2020-21.
Emissions covering land use, changes in land use and forestry can be confusing – or used to confuse – as this sector can sometimes be a source of emissions and at other times be a net sink depending on weather patterns and farming practices, including land–clearing. These changes are not always the result of government policies. If we exclude the land use sector, Victoria’s reductions still come in at 20 percent below 2005.
So Victoria’s numbers are compelling, and the progress has been substantial. That’s likely to continue, following the government’s pledge to build major new electricity storage.
More and more renewables have come online, like this windfarm near Hamilton, Victoria. Shutterstock
How does Victoria compare to other states and territories?
Victoria’s economy is second only in size to New South Wales, at around 23% of the national economy to NSW’s 31%. The differing structure of state and territory economies offers a partial explanation of their differences in both absolute emissions and changes over the last couple of decades.
Despite the common belief Victoria’s economy is dirtier than average due to its reliance on very high polluting brown coal, it’s actually the least emissions intensive of the mainland states when measured as emissions per unit of gross state product. Despite these changes, the emissions intensity of Victoria’s electricity sector remains the highest in the country, by our calculations.
Over the 15-year period, emissions from Victoria’s brown coal generators fell by one-third, much higher than the national reduction of 13%. This was partly due to the closure of the Hazelwood generation plant in 2017 and to the growth in renewables from effectively zero in 2005 to 25% share of energy consumption by 2020.
Victoria’s transport sector contributes more to emissions than the national average, though this is offset by lower emissions from agriculture and fugitive emissions from coal mining and gas extraction than the average.
Across the country, COVID was responsible for a 6% fall in transport emissions from 2019 to 2020, although emissions had been slowly rising before that. Unlike many other countries, Australia didn’t see significant COVID-related emissions reductions in other sectors such as electricity or manufacturing.
Despite its reliance on brown coal for power generation, Victoria has made real progress – the most out of any of the eastern coal states. South Australia, which has been streaking ahead on renewables, reached a 31% cut in emissions in 2020.
What’s next?
Nationally and at a state level, we have commitment to net zero emissions by 2050. Victoria has a target to cut emissions 50% by 2030, while the Commonwealth Government recently legislated a 43% target.
While that’s positive, neither the commonwealth or any state has a comprehensive policy framework to meet these targets. Given we have an interconnected grid across most of the country, nationally consistent policies should be a priority.
As with the rest of Australia, Victoria’s high-polluting electricity sector is projected to do more than its proportional share of meeting the target. In six years, the Yallourn power station will close – four years ahead of schedule. And in 2035, the huge Loy Yang A station will shut forever – ten years ahead of schedule.
The Australian Energy Market Operator is already planning for a future without the brown coal generators, possibly within 10 years time.
To replace them means major new growth in renewables. But there are several challenges we have to meet first.
First is building transmission lines to connect renewables in regional Victoria to the grid. The old grid isn’t up to the task, as renewable developers in Mildura have found.
Major increases in interstate transmission capacity will be required between Victoria and both New South Wales and Tasmania. It’s questionable whether all this infrastructure can be built on time and on budget.
The second challenge is ensuring supply remains reliable as coal closes.
Major investment is needed in energy storage, through grid scale and smaller batteries and pumped hydro to meet extended periods of low supply from renewables. The Victorian government this week made a pre-election pledge to fund short and long term storage, from batteries to pumped hydroelectricity to hydrogen. This could help, but it will also require collaboration. The state government is working with other energy ministers to develop policies to ensure reliability. It cannot be delivered too soon.
Getting fossil fuels out of electricity is low hanging fruit. To cut emissions outside this sector will be harder.
For Victoria, the role of natural gas is particularly difficult. Domestic use of gas is far more important than in other states. While the government has a gas substitution roadmap, it has yet to demonstrate it has a clear plan to encourage households and small businesses off gas. The winner of the November state election will inherit a tricky political problem if the state’s emission targets are to be met.
So spare a moment to appreciate the great progress Victoria has made – even though we know the hardest yards are ahead.
Political Roundup: Public sector bosses must be held accountable for undermining transparency
Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards.
Public service bosses earn mega-salaries, yet oversee bureaucracies that frequently undermine transparency and frustrate public and media scrutiny. The obvious answer is to start docking the pay of chief executives for the failures of their agencies.
This is the upshot of an investigation by the Chief Ombudsman’s Office into the performance of government departments in releasing public information under the Official Information Act (OIA). The Chief Ombudsman, Peter Boshier, found that although there are some things to celebrate about how agencies are fulfilling their obligations under the OIA, there are also very concerning ways information is being illegally buried or constrained.
How government agencies are undermining transparency
Boshier’s report, titled “Ready or Not”, says public sector bosses are failing to ensure their own agencies follow the law when it comes to allowing the public and media to scrutinise what they are doing. Bureaucracies are essentially abusing the OIA by keeping public information secret, or at least delaying its release, and manipulating the process to suit authorities and politicians.
The report examined the compliance of 12 government agencies and found breaches of the law were common. The Ombudsman said the practices of some agencies had “little or nothing to do with the law itself”.
He was highly critical of the time it takes government agencies to deliver information that should be public. The routine wait of 20 working days for information to be supplied is unnecessarily long, and the processes are overly-complicated. In fact, an earlier report showed that 31 government departments have average response times that exceed the 20 day limit.
Part of the problem identified by Boshier is that agencies have not invested in adequate record keeping and information management. Many don’t have proper OIA training for the relevant staff who deal with the requests.
Here’s a summary from the Ombudsman about the problems: “I am growing increasingly concerned about the experiences journalists are reporting and the apparent dismissal by some agency media teams of the OIA legislation which underpins their work. In fact, the processes adopted by the agencies have little or nothing to do with the law itself and I intend to consider this matter further.”
He says there is now growing mistrust and suspicion amongst journalists and others who need to use the OIA for their jobs.
The Nefarious role of government spin doctors
Government spin doctors get much of the blame for undermining transparency in the new report. Communications staff who work in the Beehive and government agencies are growing in numbers and power. And according to the report they appear to be flouting the law. The Ombudsman says government spin doctors need “a fundamental cultural change” in order to make politics more transparent.
Boshier found that many government media teams didn’t even seem to understand the law that they are charged with fulfilling. For example, Boshier says: “There appears to be a widespread misapprehension that many media information requests don’t fall under the OIA, and that applying the law is difficult and complicated. These perceptions are false.”
For example, his investigation found “multiple examples of media teams” breaching the section of the law which requires a reason to be given when declining OIA requests. Boshier says: “Media teams are failing to give journalists a reason when they refuse to provide information or inform them of their right to complain to me.”
According to the report, Beehive staff are also playing a particularly problematic role in stifling the provision of information that is given by the different government agencies. Reporting on the Ombudsman’s investigation, Herald journalist David Fisher says: “It identified occasions in which ministerial officials tried to limit the scope of information released or tried to change an agency’s decision about what was to be released.”
Furthermore, Boshier is concerned that government departments are delaying the release of information and giving Government ministers three to five days of advance warning that such information is going out. According to Boshier the “no surprises” policy is being abused, and generally ministers should only be given the information at the same time that it is released or, at most, the day before.
The Solution is more accountability for public sector CEOs
Although government communications staff are undermining transparency in the way they deal with OIA requests, there’s an increasing call for bosses of each agency to be held accountable for their operations – or even with the Public Service Commission, which oversees all the agencies. As Boshier points out, in terms of the OIA, “There is a lack of appreciation of leadership of how fundamentally important this act is.”
Political commentator Liam Hehir argued yesterday: “The simple solution is to hold public sector CEOs personally accountable for their agencies in the same way that company directors are. If they aren’t proactively ensuring compliance then they should be personally fined.”
The Chief Ombudsman hasn’t directly put forward such a controversial solution himself, but he is pointing the finger at the public service bosses as the ones that need to be held accountable for the OIA failings. In fact, Boshier has recommended that OIA metrics be included as part of the performance criteria of public service bosses’ annual reviews. Their salaries, bonuses, and continued employment should be predicated on the basis of performance objectives that include how well their agency is delivering information to the public. And Boshier has stressed that public sector bosses need to ensure that their organisations have the systems in place – and the resources – to adequately handle their OIA obligations.
With the average public sector boss earning $485,000 in 2020/21, this could be an effective way to bring about improvements. Docking the pay of those at the top of poorly performing agencies might see OIA requests suddenly get processed faster and with more openness.
Of course, the Public Service Commission is unlikely to be keen on such changes. The head of the PSC, Peter Hughes, has come out to suggest change is already occurring and the expectations for chief executives are already clear enough. And in terms of OIA compliance, he said yesterday: “We want to get it right, but where that is not happening, I want to know about it, and I will make sure it is fixed.” And he is already very positive about how his agencies are delivering in this regard, concluding earlier this month that the public sector is “performing well on its OIA obligations”.
Unfortunately, the Public Service Commission is also refusing to release the current performance objectives and assessments for its agency bosses.
Is Labour the most transparent government ever?
In the wake of this report, which suggests that there are some big problems in terms of core transparency in government agencies, the Public Services Minister Chris Hipkins has reiterated claims that his administration is better than any previous ones: “I think we’re more transparent than previous governments have been.”
The Prime Minister has also been questioned about the performance of OIA requests under her administration, and claims there is not such a problem, explaining that some requests for information from the media just get “lost in the post”.
Perhaps it’s time for the Prime Minister to take those transparency lapses a bit more seriously. She could start by insisting that government department bosses lift their game or face financial penalty.
Dementia is a leading cause of death in Australia.
Although dementia mainly affects older people, it is an avoidable part of ageing. In fact, we all have the power to reduce our risk of developing dementia, no matter your age.
Research shows your risk of developing dementia could be reduced by up to 40% (and even higher if you live in a low or middle-income country) by addressing lifestyle factors such as healthy diet, exercise and alcohol consumption.
But the first step to reducing population-wide dementia risk is to understand how well people understand the risk factors and the barriers they may face to making lifestyle changes.
Our new paper, published this week in the Journal of Ageing and Longevity, found most older people are aware that dementia is a modifiable condition and that they have the power to change their dementia risk.
We also found the key barrier to making brain healthy lifestyle choices was a lack of knowledge, which suggests a public awareness campaign is urgently needed.
Dementia a leading cause of death in Australia. Shutterstock
We began by reviewing the published research to identify 12 factors shown to reduce dementia risk. We surveyed 834 older Australians about their awareness of the 12 factors, which were:
having a mentally active lifestyle
doing physical activity
having a healthy diet
having strong mental health
not smoking
not consuming alcohol
controlling high blood pressure
maintaining a healthy weight
managing high cholesterol
preventing heart disease
not having kidney disease
not having diabetes
The Lancet subsequently published its own list of factors that help reduce dementia risk, which covered much the same territory (but included a few others, such as reducing air pollution, treating hearing impairment and being socially engaged).
Of course, there is no way to cut your dementia risk to zero. Some people do all the “right” things and still get dementia. But there is good evidence managing lifestyle factors help make it less likely you will get dementia over your lifetime.
Our study shows many older Australians are quite aware, with over 75% able to correctly identify more than four of the factors in our list of 12.
However, few were able to name the less well-known risk factors, such as preventing heart disease and health conditions like kidney disease.
The good news is that close to half of the sample correctly identified more than six of the 12 protective factors, with mentally active lifestyle, physical activity and healthy diet in the top three spots.
Two key issues
Two things stood out as strongly linked with the ability to identify factors influencing dementia risk.
Education was key. People who received more than 12 years of formal schooling were more likely to agree that dementia was a modifiable condition. We are first exposed to health management in our school years and thus more likely to form healthier habits.
Age was the other key factor. Younger respondents (less than 75 years old) were able to accurately identify more protective factors compared to older respondents. This is why health promotion initiatives and public education efforts about dementia are vital (such as Dementia Awareness Month and Memory, Walk and Jog initiatives).
How can these findings be used in practice?
Our findings suggest we need to target education across the different age groups, from children to older Australians.
This could involve a whole system approach, from programs targeted at families, to educational sessions for school-aged children, to involving GPs in awareness promotion.
We also need to tackle barriers that hinder dementia risk reduction. This means doing activities that motivate you, finding programs that suit your needs and schedule, and are accessible.
Reducing your dementia risk means recognising change starts with you.
We are all familiar with the everyday challenges that stop us from starting an exercise program or sticking to a meal plan.
There are simple and easy changes we can begin with. Our team has developed a program that can help. We are offering limited free brain health boxes, which include information resources and physical items such as a pedometer. These boxes aim to help rural Australians aged 55 years and over to adopt lifestyle changes that support healthy brain ageing. If you’re interested in signing up, visit our website.
Now is the time to think about your brain health. Let’s start now.
Joyce Siette is the Co-Chair for the Australian Association of Gerontology NSW Division.
Laura Dodds receives funding from Western Sydney University.
The government has introduced its legislation for the National Anti-Corruption Commission, which has received the endorsement of opposition leader Peter Dutton and so is assured of passage through parliament.
But critics are unhappy that its public hearings will be limited to when there are “exceptional circumstannces”. Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus in this podcast strongly rejects the argument this is too high a hurdle.
The government has yet to nominate a head of the powerful new body, and Dreyfus says it is open to suggestions. Asked if he has anyone particularly in mind he says, “No I do not. […] We’re going to be trying to find someone who’s eminent, who has a real standing in the community.”
On the question of so-called “grey corruption”, notably misuse of ministerial discretion in grants schemes, Dreyfus stresses it will be completely up to the commission to decide what might justify investigation.
“We’ve included in this bill a broad definition of corrupt conduct. It goes to breach of public trust, abuse of someone’s office as a public official, misuse of information acquired in the person’s capacity as a public official, but leaves open to the commission to find other forms of conduct are corrupt.”
The anti-corruption legislation contains protection for whistleblowers but Dreyfus has yet to unveil an overhaul of the existing more general legislation on whitleblowers.
He says he has “a long-standing commitment to protection of whistleblowers”.
“I brought the Public Interest Disclosure Act 2013 to the parliament […] when I was last attorney-general. I was conscious then that we might not have got the scheme completely right, and provided for a statutory review to take place.” He will look at the recommendations of that review, which reported in 2016, and update it “with a view to strengthening the protection” for whistleblowers.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Mercury is a toxic heavy metal. When leached into the natural environment, it accumulates and builds up through food chains, ultimately threatening human health and ecosystems.
In the last century, human activities have increased atmospheric mercury concentrations by 300-500% above natural levels.
However, in some parts of the world, humans have been modifying the mercury cycle for thousands of years. This anthropogenic (human-caused) mercury use has led to mercury entering places globally it wouldn’t otherwise be found, such as in lakes or soils in remote locations.
One region with an especially long (but poorly documented) history of mercury use is Mexico and Central America. Early Mesoamerican societies such as the Olmec had been mining and using mercury in southern Mexico as early as 2000 BCE.
This map of Mexico and Central America shows sites where liquid mercury has been found, known geological sources, and Maya sites with elevated soil mercury. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.986119/full, Author provided
In our research, published in Frontiers in Environmental Science, we review the ways the Maya used mercury, the mystery of how they sourced it, and the environmental legacy of past mercury use.
Our present mercury problem has a deep legacy. Understanding its origins will also help us understand the trajectory of humanity’s fascination with, use of – and abuse of – this mercurial element.
Archaeologists have been finding mercury at archaeological sites in Mexico and Central America for more than a century.
The most common form reported is cinnabar (mercury sulfide, or HgS), a bright red mineral used extensively by the ancient Maya for decoration, craft, and ritual purposes such as burials and in tombs.
It has been far less common to find liquid (elemental) mercury. There are only seven occurrences of liquid mercury at Mesoamerican sites that we are aware of.
But it’s feasible there may have been many more – and that it’s simply invisible in today’s archaeological record. Liquid mercury from 1,000 or more years ago could have evaporated or oozed away into the environment through time.
Exceeding toxic levels
Most Maya settlements were great distances from known mercury sources located in Mexico and Honduras, and perhaps Guatemala and Belize. This means the production, trade, and use of mercury would have been highly valuable and logistically challenging – especially for managing toxic liquid mercury!
Over the past two decades, scientists working on Maya archaeological projects have tested artefacts, soils, and sediments for their chemical properties, including for mercury, to better understand past human activities.
They test soils and former Maya areas excavated from far below today’s ground surface, which tell us about mercury levels during the Maya’s time.
Rob Griffin sampling sediments for mercury near the bottom of the Corriental reservoir in Tikal, Guatemala. Nick Dunning
Combined data from these tests show most Maya sites have some amount of mercury enrichment in buried soils. Specifically, seven out of ten sites were found to have mercury levels that equal or exceed modern benchmarks for environmental toxicity.
Locations with elevated mercury are typically areas the Maya occupied, including domestic patios, dating to the Late Classic (600-900 CE). Mercury also made its way into some drinking water sources including central reservoirs at Tikal.
While the appealing red cinnabar ore is the likely culprit of mercury pollution, the equally appealing and shimmering liquid mercury is another possible source of persistent pollution in some locations, such as Lamanai in modern-day Belize.
Mercury, also known as quicksilver, occurs naturally and is the only metallic element that stays liquid at room temperature. MarcelClemens/Shutterstock
At more complex sites, elevated mercury levels may be the result of both modern and ancient inputs. For example, it’s not clear if the mercury detected at the island Maya settlement of Marco Gonzalez (also in Belize) is from ancient or modern times.
Our work reveals a rich history of mercury use by the Maya and challenges the idea that pre-industrial societies didn’t have noteworthy impacts on their environments.
But there is much we still don’t know. Where and how did the Maya obtain mercury? Who mined it, traded it, and transported it by foot over hundreds of kilometres across present-day Central America?
Then there’s the question of whether the Maya were affected by mercury exposure. The next step will be for geochemists and archaeologists to track down the source of mercury at key sites and, if possible, scrutinise archaeological and human remains for signs of past mercury exposure.
We also need to find out what forms mercury takes in the environment today, so we can better understand where it came from, and provide guidance on what precautions (if any) need to be taken when working with legacy mercury.
Finding clues on early mercury use is crucial to understanding the interaction between legacy mercury and current mercury contamination in the environment today.
Duncan Cook receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Nicholas Dunning works for the University of Cincinnati. His work related to Mercury in the Maya Lowlands has been funded by grants from the US National Science Foundation and the Wenner-Gren Foundation..
Sheryl Luzzadder-Beach works for the University of Texas at Austin, and received funding for this research from this university, the US National Science Foundation, and the National Geographic Society. She is affiliated with the American Association of Geographers.
Simon Turner received funding for this mercury research from The Leverhulme Trust.
Timothy Beach works for the University of Texas at Austin and worked for Georgetown University for 21 years, and received funding for this research from these universities, the US National Science Foundation, and the National Geographic Society.
The upokororo, or New Zealand grayling (_Prototroctes oxyrhynchus_)Te Papa CC BYNC-ND 4.0, Author provided
In 1923, Te Rangi Hīroa (Sir Peter Buck) documented the last confirmed capture of a special fish – the upokororo or New Zealand grayling.
More than two decades later, the upokororo received full governmental protection, but it was too late. No further sightings were ever confirmed. In 1986, the upokororo was officially listed as extinct.
The upokororo disappeared so quickly that it’s mostly unknown to Western science.
But almost a century after the last living upokororo was seen, we are now using ancient DNA to finally provide some answers.
Our research reveals the upokororo’s ancient origins, going back 15 to 23 million years, and a link to its Australian cousins.
From fertiliser to phantom
Historical accounts show the upokororo was once very common in rivers across the country. In the 1800s, cartloads were caught and traded for use as fertiliser and food.
But then it disappeared, likely as a result of a combination of factors – pollution, overfishing, disease and predation by introduced trout.
A funnel-shaped net is set to capture upokororo in the Waiapu River. Alexander Turnball Library CC BY-NC 4.0, Author provided
Despite its abundance in the past, only a small handful of preserved upokororo still exist in museums today. This is one reason we know so little about this curious fish.
A second reason is that many of these specimens have been treated with formaldehyde, a chemical that preserves the form of the fish but plays havoc with their DNA.
Fishy frontiers
The DNA in specimens “fixed” with chemicals like formaldehyde gets broken up into small pieces and stuck together. Over time, the DNA becomes more and more damaged.
This is a big challenge for researchers who want to study species like the upokororo and a major reason why extinct fish are understudied compared to other extinct species.
An example of a formalin-fixed New Zealand grayling, caught in the Clutha River (1874). Otago Museum CC BY 4.0, Author provided
Fortunately, new methods have recently been developed that help to isolate and analyse small damaged fragments of DNA. This means genetic analysis of many “wet preserved” specimens like those of the upokororo is now possible for the first time.
Such genetic information can provide new insights into the origin and identity of extinct species.
Based on the general appearance of the upokororo, scientists have usually considered it to be a close relative of the Australian grayling. The Australian grayling is part of a family of fish that includes Stokell’s smelt and the New Zealand smelt, which are both still found in rivers across Aotearoa.
New DNA data confirmed the Australian grayling is the closest living relative of the upokororo, but only a distant cousin at best. Genetic comparisons showed the common ancestor of the two species lived more than 15 million years ago.
An ancient origin for the upokororo agrees well with the discovery of fossil grayling ear bones in lake sediments from Saint Bathans in Central Otago.
Palaeontologists sieving for fossils in the Manuherikia River, near Saint Bathans. Fossils from this location are between 16 and 19 million years old. Nicrawlence/Wikipedia, CC BY-ND
Genetic and fossil data together suggest the ancestors of the upokororo arrived in Aotearoa following the birth of the Alpine Fault. Before that time, present-day Aotearoa was mostly beneath the ocean, during the height of the Oligocene “drowning” 27 to 22 million years ago.
While baby upokororo could live in salt water, adults needed brackish or fresh water. The emergence of Aotearoa from beneath the waves would have created new habitats for the upokororo.
Some scientists have previously put forward a controversial idea. Could the Australian grayling be released into rivers in New Zealand to fill the ecological gap left by the extinction of the upokororo?
That probably wouldn’t be a good plan. Millions of years of independent evolution mean the niches filled by the Australian grayling and upokororo were likely very different.
If we can’t replace the upokororo, is it possible that they’re still out there somewhere in a remote waterway, waiting to be re-discovered? It wouldn’t be unprecedented. Takahē were thought to be extinct before a small population was re-discovered in the Murchison Mountains in 1948.
Could the New Zealand grayling be hiding out in remote waterways, such as the West Coast’s Buller River? Peter James Quinn, Author provided
Genetic data provide a new tool in the search for survivors. Environmental DNA in water samples from remote catchments can now be compared routinely to known DNA from the upokororo. Perhaps one day this will lead to a positive match that indicates the location of survivors.
Fish populations are in sharp decline globally. Lessons learned from past extinctions, like that of the upokororo, can help us preserve fish species for future generations. Hopefully we can heed the lessons from the past.
Kieren Mitchell receives funding from the Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund.
Nic Rawlence receives funding from the Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund.
Lachie Scarsbrook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
In 2020, China’s Chang’e 5 mission sampled more than a kilogram of Moon rock and soil and brought it back to Earth. The samples contain countless tiny beads of glass, created when asteroids hit the Moon and splashed out droplets of molten rock around the impact site.
We have analysed these glass beads and the impact craters near where they were found in great detail. Our results, published in Science Advances, reveal new details about the history of asteroids hitting the Moon over the past 2 billion years.
In particular, we found traces of several waves of impacts occurring at the same times as impacts on Earth – including the Chicxulub impact 66 million years ago that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs.
Billions of years of space rocks
The destructive power of meteorite impacts has been seen throughout human history. Recently notable event from 2013, the spectacular Chelyabinsk meteor that injured hundreds of people, was a relatively minor occurrence compared to historical impacts.
Impacts of various scales have happened throughout Earth’s long geological history. Only about 200 impact craters have been found around the world, because erosion and geological activity are constantly modifying our planet’s surface and erasing evidence of past impacts.
On the Moon, where impact craters don’t go away, several hundred million are recognisable. It is not difficult to imagine Earth experienced a similar staggering barrage of projectiles early in its life.
As the Solar System evolved over the last 4.5 billions of years, the number of asteroids declined exponentially over time as space rocks were swept up by Earth and the other planets.
However, the details of this process remain murky. Was there a smooth decay over time in the number of impacts on Earth, Moon and other planets in the Solar System? Are there periods when collisions became more frequent, against this general background of decline? Is there a possibility that collisions may suddenly increase in the future?
Splattered glass
The best available place to search for answers is the Moon, and the best available samples are lunar soils – like the ones Chang’e 5 brought home.
Lunar soil contains spherical droplets of solidified melt (glass) with sizes ranging from a few millimetres to less than a millimetre. These droplets are formed during high-speed impacts that melt the target rock.
Glass droplets from the lunar soil reveal a history of asteroid impacts. Beijing SHRIMP Center, Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Author provided
The melted droplets can splash out for tens or possibly hundreds of kilometres around the impact crater.
By analysing the chemical makeup and radioactivity of these droplets, we can determine how old they are. The ages of the droplets then gives us an indication of when these impacts happened on the Moon.
Each lunar soil sample appears to record multiple impacts. The ages of the impacts are spread over the past ~4 billion years, with the youngest being only a few million years old.
A simple landing site
Chang’e 5 landed at a site with a relatively simple geological history, compared to other sites on the Moon where samples have been collected.
The landing site is in the middle of a vast basaltic plateau nearly 400 kilometres across. The plateau is “only” 2 billion years old, which is young relative to the age of the lunar crust overall.
This means the history of the site is shorter and simpler to unravel. This made it easier to identify droplets originating from nearby impacts, as well as interpreting chemical and chronological data via satellite images of the surrounding lunar surface.
We combined this interpretation with modelling of how the droplets would have formed and splashed out in impacts of different sizes.
It appears that glass droplets can be transported for 20 to 100 kilometres from the site of impacts, even when the impact leaves a crater only 100 metres across. Models also indicate that impacts forming craters more than 1 kilometre across are more efficient in producing the droplets.
All this information combined helped to initiate the search for specific impact craters responsible for the production of glasses extracted from the sample.
Crater hunting
The basaltic plateau surrounding Chang’e 5’s landing site contains more than 100,000 craters over 100 metres in size. Matching glass droplets with their crater of origin is a probability game, though the odds are a little better than winning the lottery.
We can say some of the craters are likely to be the source of some of the glass droplets in the sample. Nevertheless, this matching led to another important outcome.
Previous studies had found the distribution of ages of glass droplets in the individual soil samples is uneven. There are periods in the timeline with large numbers of droplets and periods with few to none.
Our analysis of glass in the Chang’e 5 samples and our attempts to link them to specific craters confirms a variation in impact rate through time.
In addition, the ages of the periods identified from these droplets appear to be similar to those visible in a number of existing meteorite groups originating in the asteroid belt. These meteorite groups may be the results of ancient collisions within the asteroid belt.
One of these cluster ages also coincides with the dinosaur extinction. Our study did not examine this in detail, but this coincidence may indicate that, for reasons yet unknown, there are periods when regular orbits of small bodies in the solar system destabilise and head into orbits where they may hit the Earth or Moon.
Taken together, these ages suggest there may have been periods of time over Earth’s history when collisions increased throughout the inner Solar System. This means Earth could have also experienced periods when rate of impacts was higher than usual – and that similar increases are possible in the future.
How would such an increase affect the evolution of life on the planet? That remains a mystery.
Katarina Miljkovic receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Alexander Nemchin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Today, fournewpaperspublished in Nature carry on this tradition by revealing the world’s oldest well-preserved jawed fishes, dating between 436 million and 439 million years ago to the start of the Silurian period.
The fossil discoveries all come from new fossil sites in the Guizho and Chongqing Provinces in China. The Chongqing site was found in 2019, when three young Chinese palaeontologists were play fighting, and one was kung-fu kicked into the outcrop. Rocks tumbled down, revealing a spectacular fossil inside.
The research teams behind the papers are led by Zhu Min of the Institute of Vertebrate Palaeontology and Palaeoanthropology in Beijing. Min told me:
The discovery of the Chongqing lagerstatte (a “lagerstatte” is a fossil site of exceptional preservation) is indeed an unbelievable miracle of fossil hunting. Suddenly we realised we have found a jaw-dropping lagerstatte. We are now close to the core of untangling the fishy tree of early jawed vertebrates.
What kinds of fishes were they?
Most fishes today fall into two main groups:
the chondrichthyans (which includes sharks, rays and chimaerids) have cartilaginous skeletons
and the osteichthyans (bony fishes such as trout) have bone forming the skeleton.
The origins of these living fish groups are now much clearer due to the new findings of the oldest complete fishes from China.
These were shark-like fishes. Some were placoderms, an extinct class of armoured fish that had bony plates forming a solid shield around the head and trunk.
Others were ancestral kinds of sharks called acanthodians. These are extinct forms of “stem-sharks” that evolved as a separate branch – or stem – of the evolutionary line that led to modern sharks.
Placoderms are the earliest-known jawed vertebrates. Researching them is important as they help reveal the origins of many parts of the human body (including our hearts and faces).
A small flattened placoderm called Xiushanosteus, about three centimetres long, is the most common fish found at the new Chongqing site.
The very small Xuishanosteus is the oldest-known placoderm fish. It shows features typical of later forms from the Devonian period. Heming Zhang
Its skull shows paired bones which reflect those on top of our own heads. Frontal and parietal bones have their origin in these fishes. Zhu You-an, who led the study on these fishes, told me:
All the things are still like dreams. Today we are staring at complete early Silurian fishes, 11 million years earlier than the previous oldest finds! These are both the most exciting, as well as the most challenging fossils I have had the privilege to work on!
Zhu Min and the team collected Silurian fossils on a rainy day in Chongqing. Zhu Min et al.
The world’s oldest sharks and teeth
The new papers also describe the oldest complete shark-like fish, named Shenacanthus. It has a body shape similar to other prehistoric acanthodians (or stem-sharks) – but differs in having thick plates forming armour around it, as seen in placoderms.
The fact that Shenacanthus shares the features of both acanthodians and placoderms suggests these two groups evolved from similar ancestral stock. That said, Shenacanthus retains typical shark-like fin spines so it’s not regarded a placoderm, but a chondrichthyan (the group including today’s cartilaginous sharks).
Shenacanthus is shown restored here. It’s the oldest chondrichthyan fish known by more than just scales. Heming Zhang
The research also reveals the oldest-known teeth of any vertebrate – at least 14 million years older than any previous findings. Coming from a fossil chondrichthyan named Qianodus, the teeth are arranged as coiled rows called “whorls”. Such tooth whorls are common at the junction of the jaws in many ancient sharks and some early bony fishes such as Onychodus.
A reconstruction of Qianodus (left), an early fossil chondrichthyan that shows the oldest evidence of teeth in any vertebrate. Heming Zhang (artwork) / Plamen Andreev (CT image).
The researchers also found another early stem shark called Fangjinshania at the new site in Giuzhou. More than 300 kilograms of rock were collected and dissolved in weak acetic acid to free thousands of microscopic bits of bone and teeth.
Fangjinshania resembles a stem shark called Climatius known to have lived about 30 million years later in Europe and North America. Fangjinshania lived as far back as 436 million years ago, which tells us the fossil record of such sharks is much older than we previously thought.
Both Fangjinshania and Qianodus were about 10cm-15cm long, making them many times larger than the placoderms and the Shenacanthus. They would have been the top predators in their ancient ecosystem, and the world’s first predators armed with sharp teeth.
Fanjingshania provides evidence all jawed vertebrates probably underwent a great evolutionary ‘radiation’ (major diversification) in the Ordovician period, more than 450 million years ago. Heming Zhang
Plamen Andreev, the lead author on two of the new papers, told me:
These new finds give support to the idea that older fossil shark-like scales found in the Ordovician period could now really be called sharks.
From fins to limbs
Another interesting discovery from these fossils concerns how paired limbs in vertebrates first evolved. A new jaw-less fish called Tujiiaspis now shows the primitive condition of paired fins before they separated into pectoral and pelvic fins – the forerunner to arms and legs.
Pectoral fins were thought to have evolved in jawless fishes called osteostracans, then pelvic fins later in placoderms. But the new Tujiiaspis fossil suggests both sets of fins could have evolved at the same time from fin folds that run along the body and end at the tail fin.
Tujiaaspis fossil (left) and drawing showing its main features. Note the heavy rows of scales that define the lateral ‘fin fold’ area along the body, right down to the tail. Zhikun Gai et al.
When was the first radiation of the jawed fishes?
Finally, all these discoveries reveal that the first great major “radiation” of the jawed vertebrate (which refers to an explosion in diversity) took place much earlier than anyone imagined. Ivan Sansom from the University of Birmingham was a coauthor on one of the papers. As Sansom notes:
We’ve had hints of older material previously, but the appearance of clearly defined remains from jawed vertebrates so close to the base of the Silurian suggests jawed and jaw-less fish coexisted for longer than previously thought. There is now evidence for an earlier radiation of sharks and other jawed fish in the Ordovician period.
The four papers have shaken up the evolutionary tree, and new diagrams are showing revised hypotheses of the relationships between living fishes. Zhu Min informed me it will take many years to complete the studies on the new fossils, with several new species not yet having been described in the papers.
We’ll have to wait patiently for the next exciting discoveries to be announced from these extraordinary fossil sites.
The tiny Xiushanosteus is one of five new fossil fishes described in new research. Heming Zhang
John Long receives funding from The Australian Research Council
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natasa Gisev, Clinical pharmacist and Scientia Senior Lecturer at the National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney
Paracetamol is Australia’s most widely used pain medicine, with 65 million packs sold across the country in 2021. It is available everywhere from toilet vending machines, convenience stores, supermarkets, and pharmacies.
The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) is now undertaking a public consultation into access to paracetamol in the community due to concerns about poisonings, especially among young people.
What is paracetamol and what is it used for?
Paracetamol (commonly marketed as Panadol, Panamax or Dymadon) is a medicine used to treat pain and reduce fever.
Outside of pharmacies, paracetamol is available in packs of up to 20 tablets (or capsules), while pharmacies stock packs of up to 100 tablets and a range of formulations, including liquids and suppositories. Paracetamol’s wide availability and low cost make it a convenient option for people to self-treat pain without a doctor’s appointment or prescription.
The TGA is concerned about harms from paracetamol poisoning, particularly intentional overdoses among young people, which have been seen in Australia as well as internationally. In response, the TGA requested an independent expert report to support its review of paracetamol access.
The report found that between 2007 and 2020, there were 40–50 deaths each year in Australia from paracetamol poisoning. From 2009 to 2017, hospital admissions due to paracetamol poisoning increased from 8,617 to 11,697. They decreased to 8,723 in 2019–20.
Around 80% of these admissions were due to intentional self-poisoning, with young people aged between 10–24 years accounting for 40–50% of these incidents. Hospitalisations among young people due to intentional overdoses from any medicine also increased over this period. Calls to Australian Poisons Information Centres about self-poisonings involving paracetamol also increased over the last decade.
It is important to note that the number of harmful events is low compared to the amount of paracetamol sold in Australia. For every million packs of paracetamol sold, there were 100 hospital admissions for intentional self-poisoning, three hospital admissions for liver injury, and less than one death. And in recent years, both unintentional and intentional self-poisoning admissions per million packs of paracetamol sold have been decreasing.
More paracetamol involved in intentional self-poisoning was already in the home. Shutterstock
requiring a prescription to purchase higher amounts and modified-release products (such as Panadol Osteo)
requiring a prescription for people under 18.
Additional measures being considered include changes to packaging and how paracetamol is displayed in stores. At the moment, there are no recommendations to make all paracetamol products prescription-only, or to restrict their sale to pharmacies only.
Many of these strategies are focused on reducing potential harm by limiting the amount of paracetamol available. The change to pack sizes available outside of pharmacies would bring Australia in line with countries such as Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom. These countries have had restricted pack sizes (maximum 10–16 tablets) for sale outside pharmacies for many years and seen reductions in hospital admissions and deaths. Poisonings among people aged 10–17 years also went down in Denmark after age restrictions were introduced in 2011.
The expert report found most cases of self-poisoning involve medicines already present at home. So the benefits of these measures may be limited. But limiting pack sizes may help to reduce the overall quantity of medicines available in the home and the risk of a fatal poisoning.
The expert panel also recommended better follow-up care after self-poisoning events. Developing preventativestrategies and increasing mentalhealth support is vital to address the drivers of intentional self-poisonings more broadly.
Ready access to paracetamol allows people to conveniently self-treat their pain at minimal cost and without visiting a health professional. Reduced paracetamol availability may prompt people to switch to using other pain medicines, such as ibuprofen, which carries its own risks and may not be suitable for everyone.
Although limiting harms due to paracetamol poisoning is important, at the same time, the TGA will need to ensure paracetamol remains accessible to those in need. By keeping paracetamol on the shelves of supermarkets and pharmacies in reduced pack sizes, the TGA will be aiming to strike a balance between accessibility and safety.
The biggest potential impact for people living with chronic pain would be brought about by reducing larger pack sizes currently only available in pharmacies (such as those containing 50–100 tablets) and making modified-release paracetamol products prescription-only. The expert report notes that at 665 mg, the modified-release formulation in particular is linked to larger overdoses. As these products are currently only available from pharmacies, authorities would need to show how these changes would significantly reduce harm, without overly burdening people in pain.
The TGA is seeking feedback until mid-October to guide its decision. After that the TGA’s expert advisory committee will consider whether to amend the Poisons Standard to change how paracetamol can be accessed. For now, paracetamol is available as usual.
If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.
Natasa Gisev receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.
Ria Hopkins receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre.
Margaret, 63, loves playing online Scrabble everyday with her sister who lives interstate. The online game allows a playful way to keep in constant contact when geographically distant.
Tom, 70, discovered the joy of Wordle and sharing his daily outcomes with friends. Penelope, 67, gets online to play Roblox games with her grandchildren who are living interstate.
These are just a few examples of the many ways older adults are gaming across Australia.
During the pandemic lockdowns, games were not only spaces for everyday creativity and informal literacy, but a way to socialise and keep fit – both mentally and physically. So much so that, in 2020, the World Health Organisation acknowledged the communicative and social power of games for wellbeing.
Even though the typical gamer is middle-aged woman, ageist stereotypes about gamers continue to circulate, reflecting broader inherent ageisms embedded within Australian culture.
Maybe we could turn this problem on its head. Perhaps we could use games to empower ageing and ageing well, creating bridges between the generations – and even improve our relationships with animals while we’re at it.
Older adults are one of the most divergent cohort of technology users, from “silver surfer” innovators to those who have little experience or confidence.
Victoria’s Ageing Well Report lists eight attributes to ageing well: positivity, purpose, respect, socially connection, keeping up in a changing world, financial/personal security, health autonomy and mobility.
Many of these attributes can be addressed through games and play.
In our study into mobile game practices in Australian homes, we found numerous ways in which games offer intergenerational ways for socialising, connection and creativity.
Word games like Scrabble and Wordle have been deployed to add playful, social dimensions to people’s lives: older adult siblings playing online everyday, or grandparents playing with grandchildren interstate.
Game apps like Pokémon Go have been used to motivate older adults to exercise and socialise.
In countries as varied as Japan and Spain, the power of Pokémon Go has enhanced various dimensions of everyday life – from getting mobile and discovering local neighbourhoods to playing together cooperatively to win tournaments.
Game genres such as “social justice” and “games for change” have been deployed to address complex issues such as elder abuse in new ways by providing safe spaces to enhance empathy and reshape perceptions.
In our research, we accompanied and interviewed older adult players in Badalona, Spain about their use of Pokémon Go.
On the streets of Badalona, chasing Pokémons was clearly about intergenerational play and sociality. The game was such a success in older adult rehabilitation by making exercise fun and social that social workers started to prescribe it as part of their health plans.
There is a growing body of research into games for intergenerational connection. But the role of games to enhance our relationships with animals has been overlooked – despite the fact animals play an essential role in our contemporary relationships.
Despite this reality, animal companions are not acknowledged in Australia’s aged care plans. This means many older adults can be disenfranchised by the system.
For many older adults, animal companions are crucial to their social and physical wellbeing.
Digital games like Stray see the player take on the role of a stray cat. These types of games can enhance our empathy for animals, but there is a missed opportunity in relation to the human-animal bonds for ageing well.
The human-animal kinship is a space ready for gameplay which could enrich the possibility of ageing well.
During the pandemic lockdowns, Melbourne’s Cherished Pet Foundation trialled different techniques to support their community – including the use of games.
Pet Playing for Placemaking (co-designed by Jacob Sheahan) invited older pet owners and local community members to partner up and compete in treasure-hunt style gameplay.
Older pet owners, limited in mobility and vulnerable to the virus, completed digital puzzles which reveal locations where their play partner (typically a volunteer or neighbour) can walk their pet and discover more challenges that lead to other places.
Participants reported they found the game a fun way to connect with their neighbourhood and their community – and it kept their pets happy, too.
Ageing well is about positive and empowering pathways for ageing across emotional, physical and mental domains.
This can take many forms: social connection, respectful relationships, regular exercise and mobility.
Games can play an active role in empowering ageing, enriching social and intergenerational connection, mobility and health.
While the pandemic has laid bare barriers to ageing well, it has also created opportunities. Maybe we all need to play more with ageing well?
Larissa Hjorth received funding from the Australian Research Council Discovery grant fund, Games of Being Mobile (2015-2018), for her initial fieldwork into intergenerational games in the household with Prof Ingrid Richardson.
Hjorth is a partner investigator in the Canadian-based network, Aging in Data (led by Prof Kim Sawchuk).
Hjorth is also a steering group member for the Melbourne Ageing Research Collaboration (MARC) and a general member of the Australian Institute for Intergenerational Practice (AIIP).
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By A J Brown, Professor of Public Policy & Law, Centre for Governance & Public Policy, Griffith University
The prospects of Australia securing a strong federal anti-corruption agency have taken a huge leap forward, with introduction of the Albanese government’s much awaited National Anti-Corruption Commission bill into federal parliament.
It’s 17 years since Transparency International Australia first recommended this reform, and five years since a Senate Select Committee agreed unanimously it was time to give it serious consideration.
While the Greens had taken the lead and introduced bills for an integrity commission for over a decade, it wasn’t until Labor promised one in January 2018, and Independent Cathy McGowan introduced one into a hung parliament in November that year, that the then Coalition government was forced to act. However it was November 2020 before the Coalition revealed a much-criticised draft bill, which was never introduced.
Ultimately, the Morrison government’s failure to deliver a credible proposal was instrumental in its defeat in May 2022. But it also paved the way for a commission that can be not just strong and effective, but enduring, with the Coalition Opposition now signalling strongly it wants to regain credibility by supporting Labor’s vastly superior model.
In coming weeks, a joint select committee of the parliament will take submissions and review the bill, and recommend any improvements by November 10.
It will be a crucial process. The government is close to delivering on its promise to create a state-of-the-art anti-corruption body – but isn’t quite there yet.
Scope of corruption
The first strength of the proposed commission lies in the scope of corruption that it can investigate.
The Labor plan goes broader than the Morrison model, which for politicians and most of the public sector was limited to criminal offences – not “grey area” corruption where most of the scandals and problems actually lie.
Instead, it covers any conduct that could adversely affect, directly or indirectly, the honest and impartial exercise of a public official’s powers or performance of their functions. It’s a definition that’s simpler, more flexible, and less legalistic or complicated than most State definitions.
In a win for democracy, there’s almost no difference in treatment between politicians and anyone else. And to drive a stronger integrity system, the Commission has to be notified of all serious or systemic corruption issues arising across federal government, and can receive and assess information from any source about any corruption issue – even if only minor – to ensure it’s dealt with.
The strong investigative powers of the Commission itself will be saved for those corruption issues it independently assesses to be serious or systemic. But given any significant corruption issue is, by definition, serious in nature, this should present no bar to the Commission investigating what it needs to.
As flagged by Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus on Monday, not only public officials but “any person”, including private individuals or businesses that seek to corrupt public decision-making, can be in the frame.
Prevention, resources and independence
Other strengths of the bill include a clear function to drive corruption prevention and education initiatives across the Commonwealth, including holding public inquiries into corruption risks and general integrity issues. This is one of the few features preserved and extended on from the Coalition’s model.
After some early, inadequate estimates, Labor has now backed the Commission with more serious resources. It’s lifting the Coalition’s proposed annual budget of $42 million to a promised $65.5 million annually.
Together with othermeasures, flagged or underway, these features make the proposed National Anti-Corruption Commission by far the biggest integrity reform in Australian federal government for at least 40 years.
So, where are the wrinkles?
Against all these strengths, questions still surround whether:
the budget of the Commission will be sufficiently independent and guaranteed
the parliamentary committee overseeing the appointment and performance of the commission is constituted in a genuinely durable, multi-partisan fashion
and whether the proposed inspector of the Commission’s powers has wide enough functions to properly fulfil that job.
But the two biggest problems relate to public hearings, and the major gap in the federal integrity system which remains unfilled: effective whistleblower protections.
The new bill fulfils a promise to empower the commission to hold public hearings where necessary and in the public interest, like a royal commission.
However, the Albanese government’s model has unexpectedly fallen short in proposing public hearings be available only in “exceptional circumstances”.
This limit wasn’t part of the “design principles” Labor took to the election. Nor is it an accurate description of when such powers should be, and are used successfully by royal commissions and standing state anti-corruption bodies. It has proved a cumbersome barrier in the only state where it applies (Victoria).
There are ways to further ensure public hearings are only used where appropriate, to address any fears of a “kangaroo court” or “show trials”.
But our joint research between Griffith University and Transparency International Australia makes it plain: “exceptional circumstances” is unhelpful and potentially dangerous as a test for that purpose.
Finally, the government gave an election pledge that its package would be “extremely similar” to the integrity commission models previously introduced by the Greens, McGowan and her successor, Dr Helen Haines.
However the bill differs substantially from Haines’ model by not including a whistleblowing commissioner, identified by past parliamentary inquiries as also central to a strengthened integrity system.
Despite recently telling parliament the government was taking the idea of a whistleblower protection authority “very seriously indeed”, it got no mention in the Attorney-General’s speech introducing the new commission.
The government has committed to fix overdue, minor problems with federal public sector whistleblowing laws. But it’s yet to outline plans to address more serious reforms to plug this gap, including an agency to actually enforce protections and make them real.
It remains to be seen whether all these historic integrity reforms, when complete, will be enough to reverse Australia’s decade-long slide on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.
However, there can be no doubt Australia is set to take at least one huge step forward.
A J Brown is a board member of Transparency International, globally and in Australia. He has received funding from the Australian Research Council, all of Australia’s Ombudsman offices, most of Australia’s anti-corruption agencies, other Commonwealth and State regulatory agencies, parliaments and private sector peak bodies for his research on integrity, anti-corruption and public interest whistleblowing relevant to this article, including the Australian Research Council Linkage project ‘Strengthening Australia’s National Integrity System: Priorities for Reform’ (https://transparency.org.au/australias-national-integrity-system/)
In early March Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed global oil prices up by about 30% and Australians faced paying more than $2.15 a litre for petrol. Contrary to economists’ advice, the Morrison government decided to halve of the fuel excise for six months, reducing the cost of petrol by 22.1 cents a litre.
That discount period ends at midnight. So what can you expect local fuel prices to do now?
To begin with, the fuel excise is indexed so it will add 23 cents to a litre of petrol. But not immediately. Your local service station’s tanks are likely to still hold fuel for which the retailer paid the discounted excise.
Federal treasurer Jim Chalmers has cited industry estimates of about 700 million litres of discounted fuel still being “in the system”. To put that in perspective, Australians consumed an average of about 42.5 million litres of petrol a day in 2021. So it may be one to two weeks, depending on where you live, before you’re paying extra.
But what you will then be paying probably won’t be that different to before Russia invaded Ukraine, with global oil prices dropping due to efforts to increase supply and a deteriorating global economic outlook suppressing demand.
Australia imports about 90% of its refined fuel needs, so the main determinants of the price of petrol and diesel in Australia are international oil prices and the value of Australian dollar to the US dollar (because oil prices are determined in US currency).
Over the past six months the Australian dollar’s buying power has declined from about 75 to 65 US cents (a 13% drop). But that has been offset by oil prices falling more than 30% since June.
There is no single oil price because oil is traded in different markets according to its quality (with names reflecting the historical source of that type of oil). The following graph shows two commonly cited benchmarks – West Texas Intermediate (from Texas) and Brent Crude (from the North Sea).
Prices spiked after the invasion of Ukraine due to Russia’s signicance as an oil exporter (the second-biggest after Saudi Arabia, accounting for about 8% of exports in 2021) and uncertainty about what the conflict would mean for those exports, as well as Russia’s gas exports to Europe and markets generally.
Increased supply, faltering demand
The steady decline since June is due to two main reasons.
First, the efforts of the European Union and the United States to increase non-Russian oil supplies. This has been both to ease inflationary pressures on their own economies as well as to drive down the windfall revenue Russia has made from its oil exports (mostly to China and India).
The G7 is working on a plan to further choke off those revenues through imposing a price cap on Russian oil exports. Whether this will succeed depends first on finding agreement in Europe, which is divided over the plan.
The Australian government is supporting the price cap but this is mostly symbolic. At this point I can’t see it having much practical impact on Australian petrol prices.
Second, the global economy is weakening, which is taking the pressure off demand. The OECD’s economic outlook published this month predicts global economic growth will slow to 2.2% in 2023.
As a consequence, the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report last month revised upwards its outlook for world oil supply (though it also warned “another price rally cannot be excluded” given disruption risks).
Crude oil prices are now below US$90 a barrel – less than at the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For the next 12 months oil prices can be expected to decline to below US$80. This will put Australian petrol and diesel prices back to where they were in 2021. Which is good news for motorists, if not the global economy.
Joaquin Vespignani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Remember the popularity contests of high school? Often our athletic, genetically gifted classmates got the most attention: the school captain, the footy team captain, the prom queen. But popularity contests don’t just exist in school. And in the world of conservation, it can be a matter of survival for the “winners” and “losers”.
If we asked you to list every animal species you can think of, chances are that list would be full of mammals and birds, with very few reptiles, fish, amphibians and invertebrates. So why do we focus so much on some species and so little on others?
Our recent study challenges assumptions that people simply find mammals and birds much more engaging than other species. When these neglected species were posted to Instagram by wildlife organisations and researchers, there were no great differences in the likes they attracted.
This has implications for which species we focus on to enlist public support for conservation. A more complete picture of the wildlife around us would help reduce glaring imbalances in conservation outcomes.
However, mammals and birds make up less than 10% of all animals on Earth. With the media we’re consuming, we’re just not getting an accurate picture of the world of wildlife that surrounds us.
Where this gets worrying is in the fight for species survival. Our planet is in an extinction crisis, with species becoming extinct at extraordinary rates.
However, our focus on mammals and birds means cute and fluffy animals receive more research attention and funding. Conservation outcomes for these species are better than for reptiles, amphibians and invertebrates. Tellingly, 94% of all threatened species on the IUCN Red List are reptiles, fish, amphibians and invertebrates.
Do people really prefer charismatic megafauna?
Our study suggests this issue may be more complex than first thought. Many Australian conservation organisations use social media platforms, such as Instagram, to share their work and connect communities with wildlife. But in the busy, ever-updating world of Instagram feeds, which images are the most effective at grabbing someone’s attention?
We set out to examine which Australian wildlife species were most often posted to Instagram and which had the highest levels of engagement. Based on the belief that people will engage more with charismatic megafauna, we expected mammals and birds to be shown more frequently and to elicit higher engagement than the “creepy crawlies” such as amphibians and insects.
We analysed 670 wildlife images posted to Instagram by wildlife organisations and research group accounts in 2020 and 2021. For each image, we noted the species posted in the image. As a measure of engagement, we recorded the number of “likes” the image received in proportion to each organisation’s follower count.
An example of the Instagram posts that were analysed, and the information collected. Meghan Shaw, CC BY
What did the study find?
Our results were surprising and provide hope for the future of underrepresented wildlife.
Although the majority of wildlife images posted to Instagram by these conservation organisations were of mammals and birds (73.7% to be precise), our analysis of image engagement uncovered a surprising and promising trend. Mammals were, indeed, more engaging than other species, but only by a tiny amount. We found birds, reptiles, invertebrates, amphibians and fish were all equally as engaging for Instagram users.
The amount of engagement posts featuring each group of animal (taxon) received. Categories that do not share letters are significantly different from each other, e.g. mammals (b) received higher engagement than invertebrates, birds and reptiles (a) but not molluscs, fish or amphibians (ab). All significant differences were relatively small (1-2%). Author provided, CC BY
Are we ready to sympathise with weird bugs?
Perhaps it is time to give our creepy crawlies more of the media limelight. The more we see a wide diversity of animals, the more likely we are to support their conservation.
The Theory of Repeated Messaging suggests when we are repeatedly exposed to something, we are more likely to become familiar with, engage with and support it. Research has shown when we put effort into promoting underrepresented species, we can improve their chances of receiving a public donation by 26%.
Will we come to love the hibiscus harlequin bug (Tectocoris diophthalmus)? Magdalena_b/Flickr
Our findings suggest the media and conservation organisations can promote endangered species across all walks of life – from lizards to bugs and fish to frogs – without compromising viewer engagement. This will increase our knowledge of the amazing diversity of animals that we share this planet with. In turn, this will lead to underrepresented species receiving more of the conservation support they need to survive.
Zoos Victoria is already leading the way. The endangered native golden-rayed blue butterfly features in the new Totes for Wildlife campaign to conserve its natural habitat.
Perhaps we tend to prefer mammals and birds because we see them more, and not just because they look a certain way. After all, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Meghan Shaw collaborates with and receives funding from Zoos Victoria. She also receives funding from the Society of Conservation Biology’s Post-Graduate Fellowship Award, and serves on the board of the Society’s Conservation Marketing Working Group.
Bill Borrie has previously received funding from the US Forest Service and is currently a Fellow with PAN Works.
Emily McLeod is the Senior Social Science Research Manager at Zoos Victoria, a not-for-profit zoo-based conservation organisation.
Kelly Miller has previously received research funding from various Australian Government agencies and Non-Government Organisations such as the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, BirdLife Australia, Mars Birdcare, among others. She currently serves on the Scientific Advisory Committee for Earthwatch Australia, is a member of Animals Australia, and Senior Fellow with AdvanceHE.
Shortly after Australian telecommunications company Optus announced the identity data of millions of customers had been stolen, a person claiming to be the hacker announced they would delete the data for US$1 million.
When Optus didn’t pay, the purported hacker published 10,000 stolen records and threatened to release ten thousand more every day until the ransom deadline. These leaked records contained identity information such as driver’s license, passport and Medicare numbers, as well as parliamentary and defense contact information.
A few hours after the data drop, the purported hacker unexpectedly apologised and claimed to have deleted the data due to “too many eyes”, suggesting fear of being caught. Optus confirms they did not pay the ransom.
They’ve said they deleted the data – now what? Is it over?
Communication from the person claiming to be the hacker and the release of 10,200 records have all occurred on a website dedicated to buying and selling stolen data.
The data they released are now easily available and appear to be legitimate data stolen from Optus (their legitimacy has not been verified by Optus or the Australian Federal Police; the FBI in the United States has now been called in to help the investigation).
The question then is – why would the hacker express remorse and claim to delete the data?
Unfortunately, while the purported hacker did appear to possess the legitimate data, there is no way to verify the deletion. We have to ask: what would the hacker gain from claiming to delete them?
It is likely a copy still remains, and it’s even possible the post is a ploy to convince victims not to worry about their security – to increase the likelihood of successful attacks using the data. There is also no guarantee the data were not already sold to a third party.
What next?
Whatever the motivations of the person claiming to be the hacker, their actions suggest we should continue to expect all records stolen from Optus do remain in malicious hands.
Despite the developments, recommendations still stand – you should still be taking proactive action to protect yourself. These actions are good cyber hygiene practices no matter the circumstances.
However it is unclear at this early stage whether free options to change these documents will be made to all data breach victims, or only a subset of victims.
Can I find out whether my data were part of the 10,200 leaked records?
Troy Hunt, the Australian cyber security professional who maintains HaveIBeenPwned – a website you can use to check whether your data are part of a known breach – has announced he will not add the leaked data to the site at this stage. So this method will not be available.
The least technically sophisticated method of targeting Optus customers is to use the details to make direct contact and ask for a ransom. There are reports blackmailers are already targeting breach victims via text message, claiming to have the data and threatening to post it on the dark web unless the victim pays.
The data have already leaked and claims about deleting the data are untrue. Paying anyone who makes these claims will not increase the security of your information.
Data recovery scams – where scammers target victims offering help to remove their data from the dark web or recover any money lost for a fee – have also become prominent. Instead of helping, they steal money or obtain more information from the victim. Anyone who claims to be able to scrub the data from the dark web is claiming to put toothpaste back in the tube. It isn’t possible.
The data could also be used to identify family members to make the “Hi Mum” or family impersonation scam more convincing. This involves scammers posing as a family member or friend from a new phone number, often using WhatsApp, in need of urgent financial help. Anyone receiving this kind of text message should make every effort to contact their family member or friend by other means.
What else can my data be used for?
The scams involved with these data will only grow in the coming days and weeks and may not be confined to the digital world.
Other possible uses involve activities like attempting to take over valuable online accounts or your SIM card, or setting up new financial services and SIM cards in your name. The advice we provided in our previous article applies to these.
Additionally, anyone with reason to be concerned about physical safety if their location is known (for example domestic abuse survivors) should consider the possibility that their names, telephone numbers and address may have leaked or may in the future.
If you have been the victim of fraud or identity theft as a result of this breach or any others, you can contact IDCare for additional aid and Cyber Report to report the crime.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
You might remember your time as a child playing outdoors with friends and walking to school. These activities had tremendous benefits for our health and development.
One way to boost communities is to create “superblocks for kids”. Pioneered in cities like Barcelona, a superblock covers several neighbourhood blocks reserved for shared use by cyclists, walkers and residents who simply want to use the street space. Superblocks allow low-speed access for residents’ cars, but exclude through-traffic.
Superblocks are a low-cost solution to the problem of the residential “stroad” – a street-road hybrid that drivers use to avoid congested main roads, many at unsafe speeds.
These stroads are a troubled mix of two different functions: roads are through routes, and streets connect neighbourhoods socially and physically. Streets connect houses to local parks, shops and through routes, but are also public places themselves. The dual role of stroads comes at the expense of residents and their children.
Superblocks for kids can be retrofitted to existing suburbs to create safer, quieter and more play-friendly streets. They are typically about a square kilometre in area, bounded by main roads and features such as rivers. Ideally, superblocks are clustered together to provide safe access to local amenities and public transport hubs.
Everyone can still drive to their home in a superblock, but they might have to take a slightly longer, more circular route. This can reduce traffic by nudging residents to walk and cycle short journeys within their superblock.
Various low-cost “filters” exclude through traffic. These filters include:
pocket parks – small areas of community green space
modal filters – bollards, gates or planters exclude cars but allow access for walkers and cyclists
The resulting superblocks are places where kids play on the streets, which are quiet and easy to cross. There’s shade and shelter, places to stop and rest, things to see and do, and the air is clean. People feel safe and relaxed. Neighbourhoods like this promote public health and community camaraderie.
Four examples of streets that could be transformed in this way are shown below:
Lyall Street, Redcliffe, Perth
A pocket park breaks up a rat run to the airport.
The Avenue, Mount St Thomas, Wollongong
Plantings and bollards eliminate a known rat run.
Lithgow Street, Abbotsford, Melbourne
Wider kerbs make school drop-offs and pick-ups safer.
Meymot Street, Banyo, Brisbane
A pocket park and residents-only car access create a safer and quieter street.
Rat-running is a big problem
Almost twice as many cars are on Australian roads today as 20 years ago. Coupled with the rise of satellite navigation technology, this has led to more drivers using residential streets as rat runs to avoid congested main roads.
Decades of prioritising cars in Australian communities have created a serious safety issue. Overall, serious road injuries are on the rise. Despite small declines in road deaths, deaths on local streets haven’t fallen.
People feel less safe on their local streets, but we know what we can do to improve safety. Preventing rat-running leads to cleaner air, less noise, safer streets and more walking, riding, wheelchairs and mobility scooters. These results all promote stronger communities.
Everyone benefits from kid-friendly neighbourhoods
A remarkable feature of building neighbourhoods for kids is how quickly residents reoccupy their streets. People emerge from their houses to talk, their voices no longer drowned by vehicle noise. Thoroughfares become communities. Children come out to play.
Neighbourhoods for kids help everyone enjoy the benefits of becoming more active. For kids, the street can connect them to nature and help them develop movement and independent travel skills for life.
Our research highlights the need to listen to communities, and kids in particular, when designing neighbourhoods.
In the vast majority of cases, any initial opposition to creating kid-friendly neighbourhoods soon dissipates. Residents see the benefits of safer and more pleasant streets for themselves and their families.
Two-thirds of Australians support improving their neighbourhood to help them be more active. We should start by creating neighbourhoods for the communities that need it most — those with the poorest access to green space and public transport, most through traffic and crashes, and highest levels of childhood obesity.
Get your community talking again! You can start by hosting a temporary play street! Demonstrating its success will help when asking your council for permanent changes.
The authors encourage the reuse of the re-imagined streets. They are freely available to download in multiple open-access formats.
Matthew ‘Tepi’ Mclaughlin (preferred name: Tepi) is affiliated with the Telethon Kids Institute, the International Society for Physical Activity and Health and the Asia-Pacific Society for Physical Activity.
Hayley Christian receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council and Health Promotion Foundation of Western Australia (Healthway). Hayley Christian is supported by an Australian National Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellowship (102549).
Jasper Schipperijn previously received funding from the European Union, the Danish Cancer Society, KOMPAN, TrykFonden, and RealDania. Jasper Schipperijn is affiliated with the University of Southern Denmark and the International Society for Physical Activity and Health (ISPAH)
Trevor Shilton previously received funding from the ARC, the NHMRC and Healthway, he is currently a member of the Board for the Australasian Society for Physical Activity and a member of the Advocacy Committee for the World Heart Federation.
When the World Turns by Polyglot Theatre and Oily Cart. Photographer: Theresa Harrison
Review: When the World Turns, by Polyglot Theatre and Oily Cart
When the World Turns is a beautiful new work designed for children with complex disabilities and their families.
Australian children’s theatre company Polyglot are renowned for their approach to child-centred arts experiences. Their work has a reputation for fostering the creative agency of children as audience and artists.
UK company Oily Cart creates shows for all children regardless of age and perceived ability.
Their new theatre work, When the World Turns, emerges from this combined artistic creation philosophy. At its heart is an inclusive, child-led approach.
When the World Turns begins in the foyer. Performers emerge dressed in safari suits like explorers, with torches and maps at the ready.
Each family group is greeted by one of these performers; they become the guide for the family throughout the experience.
The invitation is to help explore and discover things in a new wondrous, breathing, rustling world.
As the performer engages with us in the foyer, they introduce a scrunched-up paper ball made from a heavy, brown paper and invite us to unfold the ball to see what mysteries it reveals: the words “when you are still, you can feel the earth moving”.
The performer animates and puppeteers the map, encouraging a sensory exploration with the sounds and tactile experience of the paper.
We are then guided into the performance, a beautifully lit world held by a gentle soundscape and a scenic design consisting of hundreds of plants creating pathways throughout the space.
Each family group is led to a “pod” enveloped by plants, which acts as a home base throughout the experience.
Audience members can leave and explore, but they can always return to their family in this slightly protected zone throughout the performance.
Audience members can always return to their family. Photographer: Theresa Harrison
The performers slowly introduce sensory and story elements to this pod and interact with us. By introducing sensory elements to the audience in small direct ways, they are demystified and made familiar. The artists are then able to expand and develop the sensory possibilities of the performance as it progresses.
A large paper snake (made out of the same material as the map introduced earlier) winds its way in and around our pod, landing on shoulders and sliding over knees, before it is handed to us to animate ourselves.
A pine-cone and a mandarin are revealed as wondrous objects by the performer. We are invited to explore each item by smell and touch.
Throughout, the sound design is building slowly, with repeated motifs and intimate sonic elements gradually layering to soothe, relax and familiarise.
The performers appear in costume and with puppets to become animal-like creatures that visit the pods and engage with the audience.
The bush-like world we are in comes completely alive. A parade of creatures is formed behind a performer carrying a large glowing orb, and merrily weaves its way around the space. In the show I saw, two audience members gleefully join the parade with their own torches, at times leading the procession and at times following.
A very large sheet of paper, again the same type of paper as the map from the foyer, is placed over our pod and we shelter as the sky darkens and the sound of rain begins. Scratching and dropping noises can be heard on the material over our heads.
We shelter as the sky darkens and the sound of rain begins. Photographer: Theresa Harrison
The canopy is removed and the space all around us begins to transform, as plants are rearranged by performers to break apart the pods and open up the central performance area to the audience.
Some performers remove shoes, some lie down or lean on the plants around them. Slowly, as audience members start to call out and vocalise, the performers echo and repeat the sounds in a call and response sonic landscape. While the vocal tics of children with disabilities are often experienced as disruptive and a cause for anxiety and concern for family members, here they are celebrated and folded into the work.
Eventually, the child audience members realise they are leading the performance. The performers are responding to their noises and sounds; these are creating the shape and experience of the performance.
The performance has been handed over to the children with complex disabilities. There is an exquisite sense of joy and play permeating the room.
With that, we are told the performance has ended. A final ball of crumpled paper is unwound to reveal the words, “now this world is listening to you”.
Profoundly moving
It is hard to describe the profoundly moving experience of watching audience members arrive at the Arts Centre Melbourne and viscerally sensing the mix of excitement and uncertainty of coming to see a show, even one billed as inclusive and specifically designed for their families.
During the show, the children, earlier vocal and restless, are suddenly silent and still.
The work has been designed for these children to interact. Photographer: Theresa Harrison
Families visibly relax as they realise the work has been designed to specifically accommodate the way their children will interact with the performance.
When the World Turns reveals new possibilities for child-led approaches in sensory and participatory performance and this might expand our understanding of the transformative potential of theatre.
When the World Turns played at Arts Centre Melbourne for Alter State. Season closed.
Sarah Austin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The Halton independent review of Australia’s COVID vaccine and treatment procurement has been handed to the federal government, which released the review’s recommendations yesterday. Topping the list of priorities are
public health campaigns designed to encourage sustained booster uptake for
those that will benefit […] delivered during 2023 and 2024 to improve coverage.
Around 72% of the eligible population in Australia have received their third dose. Fourth dose uptake is reasonably high among older adults (73% of eligible people aged over 65), but only 40% of eligible adults aged 30 to 65 (those with health conditions or a disability) have had their “winter booster”.
Around the world, authorities are rethinking how they encourage maximum vaccine protection.
A ‘new phase’
Earlier this month, the United States government announced the start of a “new phase” of its pandemic response. Under its new plan, most Americans could receive a COVID vaccine once a year, in the same way we line up to get an annual influenza vaccine. However, some vaccine experts in the US are concerned the government is “jumping the gun” without the data to justify its plan.
There are a few issues with adopting an annual COVID vaccination plan. First, the SARS-CoV-2 virus hasn’t been following a predictable annual pattern of peaks and troughs like influenza does. That makes it hard to predict when the next wave might come. And the way the virus mutates is also unpredictable – we don’t know whether there are new variants of concern on the horizon. But perhaps most importantly, we don’t know how people will feel about getting an annual COVID vaccine.
Internationally, the blame for plateauing vaccine uptake has been placed on missing or inappropriate communication. As suggested by David Grabowski, a professor of health care policy at Harvard Medical School,
Public health officials have not communicated clearly when you should get a booster and that it is an important step.
Communication failures
Impersonal, mistranslated and uninspiring government communication efforts have dogged the COVID vaccination program from the start. However, is communication failure the biggest issue now? Or does it come down to general fatigue about COVID?
“People are ready to put COVID behind them, and they just want to return to a more normal way of life,” suggests William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine.
A recent systematic review looked at factors associated with acceptance of the first COVID booster dose, based on 14 studies including 104,047 fully vaccinated individuals. This review reported 79.0% intend to accept a booster, while 12.6% said they were unsure.
Not surprisingly, people who have previously received a COVID vaccine are more likely to roll up their sleeves again. Those who may decline the option are those who experienced or have ongoing concerns about adverse reactions and discomfort following COVID vaccination.
While these acceptance figures fluctuate a bit based on current disease patterns and public health policy requirements, it does suggest we’re not likely to see booster coverage climb beyond 80%.
This is a concern because boosters are key to keeping people out of hospital, especially people from high-risk groups.
Confusion damages trust
So how can we continue to encourage uptake? A recent online experiment from Israel suggests positive and negative monetary incentives, such as fines or monetary payments, could help get people on board with a seasonal COVID vaccine.
The study authors also mention the use of mandates, but such policies would be extremely difficult to justify at this stage in the pandemic, when vaccination is primarily for ongoing individual protection.
While information campaigns alone might not drive uptake like they did earlier in the COVID vaccine program, clear and consistent messaging remains critical. Changing vaccine recommendations has the potential to confuse the public and damage trust and confidence. If any country is going to shift towards a routine periodical COVID vaccine, this must be communicated early and with appropriate justification.
These communication efforts will require coordinated funding as well as support for primary health-care workers responsible for explaining, promoting and delivering COVID vaccines. Unfortunately, we are already seeing reductions in funding for COVID vaccine community engagement programs and vaccine promotional efforts, such as those in the UK.
Finally, messaging also needs to be designed based on evidence and take community perceptions, motivators and challenges into account.
The US Federal Drug Administration recently released a new promotional campaign calling on people to “install that update” with a bivalent COVID booster vaccine.
The backlash was swift, with some highlighting potential conspiracy theories that could be inferred from the campaign wording and others suggesting the US is “now treating its citizens like smartphones”.
As authorities consider another potential shift in the COVID vaccination program, they’ll need to listen to the community and invest in evidence-based approaches to maintain public confidence.
Holly Seale is an investigator on research studies funded by NHMRC and has previously received funding for investigator driven research from NSW Ministry of Health, as well as from Sanofi Pasteur and Seqirus.
Jessica Kaufman receives research funding from the NHMRC, DFAT and the Victorian Department of Health.
In March 2022, the author of node-ipc, a software library with over a million weekly downloads, deliberately broke their code. If the code discovers it is running within Russia or Belarus, it attempts to replace the contents of every file on the user’s computer with a heart emoji.
A software library is a collection of code other programmers can use for their purposes. The library node-ipc is used by Vue.js, a framework that powers millions of websites for businesses such as Google, Facebook, and Netflix.
This critical security vulnerability is just one example of a growing trend of programmers self-sabotaging their own code for political purposes. When programmers protest through their code – a phenomenon known as “protestware” – it can have consequences for the people and businesses who rely on the code they create.
Malignant protestware is software that intentionally damages or takes control of a user’s device without their knowledge or consent.
Benign protestware is software created to raise awareness about a social or political issue, but does not damage or take control of a user’s device.
Developer sanctions are instances of programmers’ accounts being suspended by the internet hosting service that provides them with a space to store their code and collaborate with others.
Modern software systems are prone to vulnerabilities because they rely on third-party libraries. These libraries are made of code that performs particular functions, created by someone else. Using this code lets programmers add existing functions into their own software without having to “reinvent the wheel”.
The use of third-party libraries is common among programmers – it speeds up the development process and reduces costs. For example, libraries listed in the popular NPM registry, which contains more than 1 million libraries, rely on an average of five to six other libraries from the same ecosystem. It’s like a car manufacturer who uses parts from other manufacturers to complete their vehicles.
These libraries are typically maintained by one or a handful of volunteers and made available to other programmers for free under an open-source software license.
The success of a third-party library is based on its reputation among programmers. A library builds its reputation over time, as programmers gain trust in its capabilities and the responsiveness of its maintainers to reported defects and feature requests.
If third-party library weaknesses are exploited, it could give attackers access to a software system. For example, a critical security vulnerability was recently discovered in the popular Log4j library. This flaw could allow a remote attacker to access sensitive information that was logged by applications using Log4j – such as passwords or other sensitive data.
What if vulnerabilities are not created by an attacker looking for passwords, but by the programmer themselves with the intention to make users of their library aware of a political opinion? The emergence of protestware is giving rise to such questions, and responses are mixed.
A blog post on the Open Source Initiative site responds to the rise of protestware stating “protest is an important element of free speech that should be protected” but concludes with a warning:
“The downsides of vandalising open source projects far outweigh any possible benefit, and the blowback will ultimately damage the projects and contributors responsible.”
What is the main ethical question behind protestware? Is it ethical to make something worse in order to make a point? The answer to this question largely depends on the individual’s personal ethical beliefs.
Some people may see the impact of the software on its users and argue protestware is unethical if it’s designed to make life more difficult for them. Others may argue that if the software is designed to make a point or raise awareness about an issue, it may be seen as more ethically acceptable.
From a utilitarian perspective, one might argue that if a form of protestware is effective in bringing about a greater good (such as political change), then it can be morally justified.
From a technical standpoint, we are developing ways to automatically detect and counteract protestware. Protestware would be an unusual or surprising event in the change history of a third-party library. Mitigation is possible through redundancies – for example, code that is similar or identical to other code in the same or different libraries.
The rise of protestware is a symptom of a larger social problem. When people feel they are not being heard, they may resort to different measures to get their message across. In the case of programmers, they have the unique ability to protest through their code.
While protestware may be a new phenomenon, it is likely here to stay. We need to be aware of the ethical implications of this trend and take steps to ensure software development remains a stable and secure field.
We rely on software to run our businesses and our lives. But every time we use software, we’re putting our trust in the people who wrote it. The emergence of protestware threatens to destabilise this trust if we don’t take action.
Christoph Treude no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.
After 50 years of research, eminent Stanford University sleep researcher William Dement reportedly said the only solid explanation he knows for why we sleep is “because we get sleepy”.
Even though sleep may be, as one researcher put it, “the only major behaviour in search of a function”, it clearly does matter for our health and wellbeing.
But are we doing it right? What does the research say about sleeping position?
Most people prefer to sleep on their side. This is good to hear, as those who lie on their backs are more likely to be poor sleepers or have breathing difficulties during the night.
In most cases, we tend to move around quite a lot during the night. One study of 664 sleepers found, on average, that participants spent about 54% of their time in bed sleeping on their side, about 37% on their back, and about 7% on their front.
Males (especially those aged under 35) tend to be most restless, with more position shifts, and arm, thigh, and upper-back movements during the night.
This may not be a bad thing, as allowing your body to move during the night is generally a good idea.
During sleep, your body will keep track of any pain or discomfort and adjust position accordingly. This is why we usually avoid developing bedsores (or pressure ulcers) in everyday life.
If you find you can’t move because your partner (or dog) is taking up too much room in the bed, consider switching sides or getting a larger bed.
And don’t tuck yourself in too tightly; give yourself some room to move around on either side.
Being comfortable is key. There is no quality research providing clear evidence for an “optimal sleep position”. Your age, weight, environment, activities and whether you’re pregnant, all play a role in which sleep position is best for your body.
Ideally, we can find a position that helps us get a good night’s sleep, and one that avoids us waking up in any pain.
Even with our chosen position, some layouts are better than others. In one study, people who rested in a position where there is a rotation of the spine (such as the unsupported side position), woke up with more pain in the morning.
We all have a preference for a particular sleep position. Christian Moro, Author provided
Nonetheless, although some forms of side-sleeping may cause a bit of load on the spine, it appears the side positions, in general, are still better than the other options.
Choosing the right pillow is vital for a good night’s sleep.
A lack of support for the head and neck during sleep has been found to severely impact spine alignment, and cause muscle problems such as neck pain, shoulder pain and muscle stiffness.
Promisingly, the pillow material does not appear to affect the spine. Instead, the shape and the height is what matters. A U-shaped pillow may help you have a longer night’s sleep, and a roll-shaped pillow can reduce morning pain and bedtime pain in those suffering from chronic pain.
Unfortunately, science has not given us an answer on what is the optimal mattress. With everyone sleeping differently, this would be hard to compare over the long term.
However, there are bad mattresses. If your bed is sagging, has lost its firmness, develops noisy springs, or shows clear signs of wear and tear, consider changing your mattress.
Rotating the mattress can help with its longevity and improve comfort. This should be done at least one to two times per year.
Set a cooler room temperature. The ideal temperature for sleep is 18.3℃ (ranging between 15-19℃); higher temperatures can affect sleep.
Allow some airflow in the room. Besides bringing nice, fresh air, it also clears away any accumulated heat, keeping us nice and cool during the night.
Some medications, such as certain types of antihistamines, may make it easier to get to sleep. On the other hand, stimulants such as caffeine can drastically affect the quality of your sleep.
Finally, be sure not to go to bed with a full bladder, as having to get up at night to wee can impact sleep.
Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.
In June, the American Film Institute presented its 48th Life Achievement Award, the highest honour in American cinema, to the beloved stage-and-screen star Julie Andrews.
On conferring the award, the AFI praised Andrews as “a legendary actress” who “has enchanted and delighted audiences around the world with her uplifting and inspiring body of work”.
As anyone who has seen Mary Poppins (1964) or The Sound of Music (1965) can attest, “uplift” is central to the Julie Andrews screen persona.
It is a sweetness-and-light image that is easy to lampoon. Andrews herself is alleged to have quipped “sometimes I’m so sweet even I can’t stand it”. But it’s an element of feel-good edification that fuels much of the star’s iconic appeal.
The idea of Julie Andrews as a figure of uplift has a long history.
Decades before she attained global film stardom in Hollywood, Andrews enjoyed an early career as a child performer.
Billed as “Britain’s youngest singing star”, she performed widely on the postwar concert and variety circuit with forays into radio, gramophone recording and even early television.
Possessing a precociously mature soprano voice, Andrews was widely promoted in the era as a child prodigy. A 1945 BBC talent report filed when the young singer was just nine years old enthused over “this wonderful child discovery” whose “breath control, diction, and range is quite extraordinary for so young a child”.
Andrews made her professional West End debut in 1947 where she dazzled audiences with a coloratura performance of the Polonaise from Mignon. Newspapers were ablaze with stories about the “12-year-old singing prodigy with the phenomenal voice”.
Reports claimed the pint-sized singer had a vocal range of over four octaves, a fully formed adult larynx and an upper whistle register so high dogs would be beckoned whenever she sang.
On the back of such stories, Andrews was given a slew of lionising monikers: “prima donna in pigtails”, “infant prodigy of trills”, “the miracle voice” and “Britain’s juvenile coloratura”.
While much of it was PR hype, the representation of Andrews as an extraordinary musical prodigy resonated deeply with postwar British audiences. The devastation of the war cast a long shadow, and there was a keen sense a collective social rejuvenation was needed to reestablish national wellbeing.
The figure of the child was pivotal to the rhetoric of postwar British reconstruction. From political calls for expanded child welfare to the era’s booming family-oriented consumerism, images of children saturated the cultural landscape, serving as a lightning rod for both social anxieties and hopes.
In her status as “Britain’s youngest singing star”, Andrews chimed with these postwar discourses of child-oriented renewal.
A popular myth even traced her prodigious talent to the very heart of the Blitz. Like a scene from a morale-boosting melodrama, the story claimed the young Andrews was huddled one night with family and friends in a Beckenham air raid shelter. In the middle of a communal singalong, a powerful voice suddenly materialised out of her tiny frame, astonishing all into silent delight.
One of the most pointed alignments of Andrews’ juvenile stardom with a discourse of postwar British nationalism came with her appearance at the 1948 Royal Command Variety Performance.
Appearing just two weeks after her 13th birthday, Andrews was the youngest artist ever to participate in the annual event. It generated considerable media coverage and yet another grand nickname: “command singer in pigtails”.
Andrews performed a solo set at the event, and was also charged with leading the national anthem at the close.
Ideals of restorative nationalism shaped Andrews’ child stardom in other ways.
Much of her early repertoire was markedly British, drawn from the English classical canon and rounded out by traditional folk songs.
Press reports emphasised, for all her remarkable talent, “our Julie” was still a typical English girl thoroughly unspoiled by fame. In accompanying images she would appear in idyllic scenarios of classic English childhood: playing with dolls, riding her bicycle, doing her homework.
Elsewhere, commentary was rife with speculations about Andrews’ prospects as “the next Adelina Patti” or “future Lily Pons”. The mix of nostalgia and hope helped make the young Andrews a reassuring figure in the anxious landscape of postwar Britain.
All grown up
Little prodigies can’t remain little forever. There lies the troubled rub for many child stars, doomed by biology to lose their principal claim to fame.
In Andrews’ case, she was able to make the successful transition to adult stardom – and even greater fame – by moving country and professional register into the American stage and screen musical.
Still, the themes of therapeutic uplift that defined her early child stardom would follow Julie Andrews as she graduated to become the world’s favourite singing nanny.
Brett Farmer no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melanie Woodfield, Clinical Psychologist, Te Whatu Ora | HRC Clinical Research Training Fellow, University of Auckland, University of Auckland
Getty Images
Exam season is fast approaching for many senior students in New Zealand and Australia. At the best of times, adolescents may struggle with ambition and drive, let alone after two-and-a-half years of COVID-induced disruption and uncertainty.
But parents can still nurture their teens’ motivation to do what they need to do.
Behind the scenes, the adolescent period is one of huge developmental change, and not only physically. Teens are developing their sense of identity and refining their own values. Their autonomy and individuation is emerging while they still remain somewhat dependent on the family system.
Parents may expect their young people to be intrinsically motivated when it comes to exams. The importance of studying is obvious to many adults. But even the most diligent among us can easily identify behaviours we know we should be doing, but aren’t.
Clearly, knowing that something is important may not be enough to generate the desired behaviour.
Understanding human behaviour
According to clinical psychologist Susan Michie and her colleagues at University College London, three factors interact to produce any human behaviour, whether it’s studying or surfing: capability, opportunity and motivation.
Michie’s team developed the “COM-B” model, which forms the basis for behavioural interventions relating to everything from hand washing to our own efforts to support clinicians to use evidence-based treatments.
Capability (both physical and psychological), opportunity (physical and social) and motivation come together to influence behaviour in an interactive way.
For example, if a young person is very capable (or believes themselves to be very capable) at solving maths equations, those around them are supportive or encouraging (social opportunity), and they have the practical resources they need (physical opportunity), they’re likely to want to do maths homework (be motivated).
Conversely, imagine a young person who starts the school term really motivated to study for two hours online every night, but only has access to the laptop at school (limited physical opportunity), still has fatigue after an illness (limited physical capability), and is surrounded by friends who have other priorities (low social opportunity). Herculean motivation may be required in this situation.
Put simply, parents should “zoom out”. Motivation can’t be produced magically out of thin air, and attempts to force it can have the opposite effect. But parents can support and encourage their young person’s capability and opportunity to study.
1. Motivation fluctuates
Motivation is not something that is simply present or absent. It fluctuates from hour to hour, day to day. So rather than “how can I make him be motivated today?”, a more useful question is “how can I create an environment where he’ll be a bit more motivated than he was last night?”
2. Good foundations
Remember the basics, for teens and parents alike – sleep, exercise and balanced nutrition. If these are in place, it’ll help both physical and psychological capability.
3. Balanced thinking promotes capability
A sense of mastery or capability is important. Stressed teens can fall into black and white thinking traps. “I’m useless at maths” fuels feeling overwhelmed and a sense of futility.
Instinctively, it’s tempting to reply with “no you’re not, you’re amazing!” But that’ll likely bounce right off. Instead, try to encourage your teen’s balanced thinking. “Stats is hard, but I’m okay at algebra and geometry”.
4. Focusing on what teens can control
Praise effort over achievement. Persisting with an hour a day of English revision for six weeks deserves as much acknowledgement as winning the English prize (and unlike the prize, it is within your teen’s control).
Parents should keep in mind that teenagers’ irritability may be caused by underlying anxieties. Getty Images
5. Reinforcing their worth, no matter what
Likewise, be sure to separate your teen’s attributes (who they are) from their behaviour (what they do). They’re not a “lazy” person, but there are particular behaviours they may need to do more (or do less).
6. Behaviour as communication
If young people are irritable or snappy, try to hold in mind that this anger or irritation is likely to be secondary to other emotions, like anxiety, hopelessness or overwhelm. It’s probably not about you.
7. Worry might have a purpose
Lots of anxiety may be incapacitating, but some anxiety in this season makes sense, and a little bit can actually enhance preparation and performance. Paradoxically, perfectionism isn’t always useful.
Motivation to study can fluctuate. Getty Images
8. Validate what you can
Try to validate the emotion, even if the behaviour can’t be justified. Perhaps reflect that it makes perfect sense that things feel overwhelming, many people would feel that way in that situation, and then pause.
It’s tempting to rush to solve the problem, or rapidly fire questions. But often young people just need to be given permission to feel the feeling, and they can sometimes figure out the solution themselves.
9. Collaborating to solve problems
Similarly, try to avoid doing “to” (or “for”), instead aiming to do “with”. Collaborating to solve problems (if they want input) may develop or enhance future independent problem-solving abilities. It also communicates your belief in their capability to do so.
10. Acknowledge to create habits
Parents might consider using targeted, short-term incentives (we don’t see these as bribes, but recognition of hard work or effort) to create new habits or reinforce emerging behaviours.
Finally, try to hold a longer-term view. One exam, one assessment, won’t make or break things. Families and cultures may hold a range of values around what a successful life looks like, but it usually involves more than just exam success.
Good health, connection with others, and meaning or purpose are fundamental to success in life. Try to keep this in mind over the next few months, even if the going gets tough.
Melanie Woodfield receives funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand.
Jin Russell has previously received funding for research projects from the Starship Foundation, Health Research Council of New Zealand, and The Royal Australasian College of Physicians. She is a board member of the Parenting Place, a not-for-profit organisation in Aotearoa New Zealand.
Source: Council on Hemispheric Affairs – Analysis-Reportage
Danny Shaw Río de Janeiro
(The author has changed certain names and details to protect individuals’ privacy.)
When you arrive in another country, there is nothing more precious than new friends who adopt you, protect you, and teach you about their language, music, culture, and traditions. For an open-minded traveler, ethnographer and anti-imperialist organizer, this new family is more valuable than any air-conditioned hotel, amount of comfort or money.
When I moved to Brazil in May of 2003, Binho, Mateuszinho, Thiago and their family and neighborhood crew took me in and put me up in O Morro do Santo Cristo and O Complexo da Penha, the heart of Río de Janeiro’s favelas and drug war. They walked me through the complex landscape of Rio’s corrupt brutal police who shoot first and rarely ask questions later, their violent blitzes (Río slang for stop and frisks), and a maze of morros (ghettos spread across hills) divided between two major paramilitary drug gangs: O Comando Vermelho and O Terceiro Comando (The Red Command and The Third Command).
Professor Danny Shaw meeting members of the Movimento dos Pequenos Agricultores in Brazil (photo credit: Danny Shaw).
On the eve of what Steve Bannon is calling the “second most important election in the world,” the October 2nd showdown between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro, I returned to Río nineteen years later.[1] Full of saudades (memories or nostalgia), I surprised the old crew in hopes of getting us all back together.
Everyday Survival
What became of my three friends?
From the outset, it is important to steer the English-speaking reader away from the stereotype that Rio de Janeiro represents Brazil or that my organic contacts represent all of Rio. Only a tiny percentage of favela residents make a living in the drug trade while most families reject lumpen lifestyles and find ways to eke out an income in hostile economic terrain by any means necessary.
Binho went to prison in 2004 for an armed robbery of a bakery that left his three partners in crime dead in a shootout with the police in Jacarepaguá. A police officer who responded to the scene said he didn’t pull the trigger because Binho’s face reminded him of his son. The crime of armed robbery, Article 157 of the penal code, afforded Binho four years in Bangu prison. The vibrant 22-year old sustained brain injuries and psychological trauma from beatings from rival gangs. He contracted AIDS and has not been able to access the necessary medications. His wife Ronenete died of AIDS complications four years ago. I sat by his bedside remembering old times, nostalgic of the once cocky, invincible bandido (thug) who mentored me on why in Rio, “você não pode vacilar” (you can’t get caught slipping.)
Mateuszinho was a low level hustler for the Comando Vermelho, Rio’s largest gang and drug trafficking entity. He was a quick-talking, street smart 24-year old who conversed his way out of every brush with death, laughing it off and embarking upon his next mission. For seven 12-hour shifts per week as a vapor (the highest look out at the top of the morro), he earned $60 (120 reais in 2003) per week. I remember him parading around with other teenagers and young men toting M-16s and other automatic weapons as they protected the open drug operations and patrolled a baile funk, a weekend block party attended by thousands of local residents. With the police in plain view, the CV soldiers fired their weapons into the air in an open show of force sometime after 2 A.M., yelling their signature slogan “É nós.” I tracked down Mateuszinho at the science museum (Museu do Amanhá) where he now works as head of security. He is now one of over 65 million Brazilians, in an Evangelical church, the fastest growing religion in Brazil, second only to the Catholic Church with 105 million members.[2]
Rene continues to coordinate Arte Transformadora which serves 476 youth from O Complexo da Penha, 13 favelas spread over 13 hills where landless families first eeked out an existence when slavery was officially “abolished” in 1888.[3] Brazil was the last nation on earth to officially outlaw slavery. Deprived of forty acres and a mule or any type of support or reperations from the state, millions of newly “freed” slaves were left to fend for themselves in a caste society regimented by race and class. Favelas, named after a type of tree native to the Northeast, home to many slaves and migrant laborers who headed South, emerged as the name of these hilltop shantytowns. Rene matter-of-factly talked about identifying and delivering the bodies of youth soldiers of the Comando Vermelho to their families after they were shot down by the UPP (Police Pacifying Unit). Often, the police only allowed him or another community leader to cross police lines to retrieve the bodies. Rene still jokes with hustlers armed with walkie talkies and automatic weapons, children he held in his own arms only a decade before. Arte Transformadora seeks to plant seeds of hope and success in the minds of preteens and teens who may otherwise become cannon fodder for Rio’s drug war.
Professor Danny Shaw at Arte Transformadora in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, teaching a boxing workshop (photo credit: Danny Shaw).
Visiting these close friends nearly two decades later gave me deeper insight into the two different directions this South American economic juggernaut might take on October 2nd.
The Showdown
156,454,011 Brazilians are eligible to vote next week for the president, 27 governors, 27 senators, 513 Congress people, 1,035 state representatives, and 24 district representatives. 28,274 candidates are squaring off for these positions, representing a vast array of parties, ranging from socialist to far-right.[4]
Jair Bolsonaro is the incumbent president who won the 2018 presidential election over the Partido dos Trabalhadores’ (PT) Fernando Haddad, due largely to the lawfair and misinformation campaign that had been underway against the PT since it first won executive power in 2003. Bolsonaro has employed Trump-esque tactics, preemptively questioning the integrity of the voting machines. Netlab, a unit at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro,[5] found that YouTube was favoring algorithms that promoted these Bolsonaro myths. Bolsonaro and his fellow senators have a history of denigrating and intimidating journalists.[6] As the presidential campaigns began to heat up, this former Army Artillery Officer is actively trying to get the military further involved in politics[7] and positioned to overturn the decisions of the Electoral Commission[8] to verify the elections if he were to lose. Some analysts are contemplating whether his camp has the power to stage an October coup.[9] More recently, however, Bolsonaro has tried to strike a more conciliatory tone saying “If it’s God’s will, I’ll continue (as president). If not, I’ll pass the (presidential) sash and retire.”[10]
For the past two weeks Globo,CNN Brasil and the other mouthpieces of the economic and political establishment have published headlines stating that Datafolha polls give Lula 45% of the vote and Bolsonaro 33%.[11] A student of Trumpian tactics, Bolsonaro has for the past four years positioned himself as the victim of “the liberal media” and “fake news.”[12] A military insider and political “outsider,” Bolsonaro has more recently made a list ditch effort to implement populist economic measures to shore up more votes, approving a $7.7 billion dollar stimulus package, which increases cash handouts to struggling families by 50%. According to the same Brazilian study, 61 percent of voters view this eleventh hour move as politically motivated to cut Lula’s lead in the polls.[13]
50 percent of women are expected to vote for Lula and 27 percent for Bolsonaro. Young people, aged 16 to 24, are twice as likely to vote for Lula. The demographic least likely to vote for Bolsonaro is Black women. Afro-Brazilians in general, and families making less than twice the minimum wage (which is roughly 55 percent of the electorate), are less likely to vote for him. Bolsonaro is leading among white males; and among families making over five times the minimum wage, he polls at 47% to Lula’s 35%.[14]
Professor Danny Shaw participates at a Conference at the Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica Celso Suckow da Fonseca (CEFET). Photo credit: Danny Shaw.
According to another Datafolha study, Lula maintains 53 percent of the Catholic vote versus Bolsonaro’s 30 percent.[15] In the case of other religions — such as the Afro-Brazilian candomblé, the PT candidate is polling four times higher than his Liberal Party rival. Lula has a comfortable lead among self-defined atheists, with 60 percent expected to vote for him and 22 percent for the incumbent. Among Evangelical Christians, Bolsonaro’s main base, he is polling at 52 percent. Bolsonaro’s appeal to this sector comes from the fact that he “promotes conservative family values and opposes abortion and same-sex marriage.”[16] The fact that 34 percent of the people in Bolsonaro’s key demographic now say they will vote for Lula is immensely significant. On September 9th, Lula met with members of the Evangelical Church of São Gonçalo on the outskirts of Río and in an emotional appeal laid out why he is the real candidate for those who believe in God and in justice.[17]
The attempt to build a popular anti-fascist front with more right-leaning and center candidates led Lula to select former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckman as his running mate. Professor Luis Mergulhāo elucidates why many on the left find Alckman objectionable.[18] Regardless of these valid critiques, seven former Brazilian presidential candidates have come out in support of Lula. His ability to build the largest electoral alliance in the six times he has run for president shows that Lula is an astute political strategist.[19]
There are other exciting historic races under way as well. Though beyond the scope of this article, it is worth highlighting one such race. Black City Councilwoman Carol Dartora is running under the slogan “Paraná is also ours.”[20] Dartora managed to push through Affirmative Action legislation in the southern Curitiba city government even though 70% of the council men and women were right wing, representing the racist politics that have long dominated the region. She joined Lula at a massive campaign rally on September 18th showing that Brazil’s three Southern states, Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, which are a majority European descendent, also have a strong PT base.[21]
The Lula and Dilma PT Years: Social base and sister organizations
Brasilwire, a website that closely follows the twists and turns of Brazilian politics through an anti-imperialist lens, offers an overview of the anti-neo-liberal track record of the PT. Between 2003 and the Lawfare coup against President Dilma Rousseff in 2016, the PT helped lift 40 million Brazilians out of poverty,[22] expanded university access for working class and Afro-Brazilian students, granted labor rights to Brazil’s long exploited domestic servants,[23] and stimulated internal production and created a market for nationally manufactured goods.[24] Lula speaks the language of the masses of Brazil, challenging the arrogance and invincibility of the other candidates who represent Brazil’s 0.1 percent. On Sunday, August 27th, in the first nationally televised presidential debate, he stood up to the other candidates who challenged his executive track record, saying “You may not have seen the changes we (the PT) carried out, but your gardeners, your drivers, your bodyguards, and your maids did.”[25] Millions erupted into applause as their Lula spoke truth to power.
Lula’s social welfare programs did not always bring about structural change, but they did lift millions of Brazilians out of poverty. One of Lula’s stated goals, which he speaks about on the campaign trail, is to ensure every Brazilian is able to eat three meals a day. The PT democratized higher education. According to a World Bank study, in 2002, there were zero students from the poorest 20 percent of the population attending college and only 4 percent of college students came from the poorest 40 percent.[26] Two-and-a-half terms of PT leadership changed this dramatically. By 2015, approximately 15 percent of higher education students were from the two poorest quintile of Brazilian society. For the first time, working-class and Black Brazilians could get that critical university education.
To further understand the PT’s defense of the poor, we must look at its base and its sister organizations and the work that they do on the frontlines of the class struggle. The true working class base of the PT is the Central Única dos Trabalhadores (CUT).[27] The largest union in South America and fifth largest in the world, the CUT has 7,847,077 dues-paying members and 23,981,044 associated union members.[28] 48 CUT leaders, representing a vast array of trades from public workers to professors, are running in the current elections. Citing the 1988 Brazilian constitution, the CUT writes: “Article number 1 states all power emanates from the people who exercise it through elected representatives or directly in the terms of this constitution.”[29] The Ibitinga, São Paulo-based teacher and CUT Secretary of Administration and Treasury, Ariovaldo de Camargo,[30] lays out a class-based view of these elections: “Bosses pick bosses. Workers vote for workers. We have a wide array of workers before us to vote for.”[31]
The Movement of Landless Workers, the MST, works closely with the PT and other leftist parties. Since the 1980’s, the MST has mobilized some 370,000 families to carry out 2,500 collective land occupations against latifundios (massive estates held by individuals or corporations).[32] Despite constant threats and attacks from the Military Police, the largest social movement in the history of the hemisphere has liberated 7.5 million hectares of land and set in motion critical education programs, increased agricultural production, cooperatives, and quality health care.
Victories by the PT, the Party for Socialism and Liberty (Psol), and the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) would keep space open for such redistribution and reparations to continue. A Bolsonaro victory would heighten the intensity of violence against society’s most vulnerable social actors and social movements.
Implications for Brazil’s foreign policy
The Bolsonaro administration has been a firm ally in Washington’s drive against left and left-leaning governments in Latin America, and has distanced Brazil from the cause of regional integration. In stark contrast, a third Lula administration would once again make Brazil a champion of regional independence and integration by playing an active role in the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) which Brazil left in 2020, and the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) which Brazil left in 2019. Lula would also be a strong advocate for Bolivia’s full membership in the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR). And just as Colombian President Gustavo Petro has made amends with the Chavista government of Venezuela, if elected, Lula would cease all hostilities and embrace a cooperative relationship with the Bolivarian Republic. Brazil would play a stronger role in BRICS and the building of a multipolar world. During his presidency, Lula served as an international peace maker trying to help negotiate a “nuclear deal” between the United States and Iran; if elected, he would likely resume efforts to advance world peace.[34]
Lula’s foreign policy will represent the reintegration of Brazil into the Bolivarian family and further momentum for the progressive transformations underway across the continent from Cochabamba to Caracas to Mexico C/ity.[35] Lula has spoken of building a unifying South American currency, the Sur. At a campaign rally, Lula remembered: “The US was very afraid when I discussed a new currency and Obama called me: ‘Are you trying to create a new currency, a new euro?’. I said, ‘No, I’m just trying to get rid of the US dollar. I’m just trying not to be dependent.’”[36]
Despite such massive gains against an entrenched economic and political elite, segments of the U.S. “left” have been very critical of the PT.[37] Though the PT has been subject to legitimate critique, Brazil Wire documented how Jacobin, a magazine affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America, published 38 articles on Brazil from 2014-2017. All 38 presented a negative view of the PT. A far cry from the more radical policies of other Pink Tide presidents like Hugo Chavez or Fidel Castro, most of the left in Brazil today is united behind electing Lula and other progressive candidates as the next step towards challenging Brazil’s status as a neo colony of the West. Up against such a formidable proto-fascist foe, how important is it for the U.S. left to stand with those most under attack?
Bolsonarismo: the Militarization of Brazilian Society
For a country that lived through a two-decade-long military dictatorship from 1964-1984, the specter of the return to a police state is real. The newspaper A Nova Democracia conducted a study of “The Super-Salaries of the Generals” that Bolsonaro has worked alongside, inherited, appointed, and promoted.[38] According to author Gabriel dos Santos, 215 Military Officers receive monthly salaries of R$32,153,77, 30 times more than the minimum wage in Brazil. Other generals such as Vice-president Hamilton Mourão, Augusto Heleno, and former Defense Minister and currentVice-presidential candidate, Walter Souza Braga Netto, have received phantom titles as 4-star marechais (marshalls) and earn a whopping 111.2 thousand reais per month, about 100 times what an everyday worker earns. Bragga gained notoriety when he coordinated the 2014 military occupation of Complexo da Maré, a series of oppressed communities with a population of over 130,000 in the North Zone of the city of Río de Janeiro.[39]
Many of these generals oversaw the 2003-2018 United Nations’ Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). 30,000 Brazilian soldiers, led by generals who today occupy high-ranking positions in Bolsonaro’s cabinet, occupied Haiti and contributed to massacres in Cite Soleil, Fort National, and Belè.[40] These same generals returned to play a role in the occupation of Rochinha and other favelas to conduct “a War on Drugs” that reached its zenith with 1,814 official police killings in Rio in 2019.[41]
Scholar Thiago Sardinha, a specialist on paramilitary groups across Brazil, highlights the training Brazilian military and paramilitary groups have received from both France and the United States.[42] Used for U.S. interventions in Haiti and Central America, the Agency for International Development (AID) has a special department called The Office of Public Security.[43] In Brazil this office is in charge of training foreign police. Sardinha identifies the reign of terror of both the offical police in São Paulo, Goias and beyond, and the role of paramilitary, extra-official militias which control and collect taxes in many Rio communities.
Bolsonaro’s rhetoric has led the New York Times to lead with the following headline: The Question Menacing Brazil’s Elections: Coup or No Coup?[44] The president’s camp recently met with Steve Bannon, who repeated the same unproven claims that “Bolsonaro will win unless it is stolen by, guess what, the machines.”[45] Jason Miller, a Senior Trump Strategist, spoke at Brazil’s bicentennial independence day.[46] Bolsonaro, amidst a sea of yellow and green Brazilian flags, turned “the independence day celebrations” in Copacabana, Brazilia, and throughout the country into campaign rallies. He is now under investigation for illegally combining these two events.
Bolsonarismo: Polarization and the Open Veins of Brazil
FAIR published a scathing critique of a new documentary BBC and PBS released two weeks before the election which present Bolsonaro as a heroic rags to riches story.[47] While the liberal media has traditionally been at odds with the Trumps, Dutertes, and Bolsonaro, why would the Tories ofEngland and sectors of the U.S. ruling class, particularly business interests, so openly embrace such an odious, graceless figure like Bolsonaro?
From the perspective of foreign capital Bolsonaro represents unfettered access to the open veins of Brazil, the world’s tenth largest economy with a GDP of 1.8 trillion dollars.[48] Bolsonaros’s party is called the Liberal Party and the Minister of Economy is Paulo Geudes, who was trained in a PhD program at the University of Chicago under Milton Friedman in the 1970s. Because Lula, Dilma, and the PT would not go along with the Washington consensus, they had to be removed from power and, in the case of Lula, imprisoned. Lula was cleared of all 26 of the bogus charges.[49]
The showdown between a former union leader who lost a finger in a São Paulo factory and a career military man who emerged as the mouthpiece of Brazil’s economic and military elites speaks to the deep divisions in Brazilian society.
The Brazilian Senate approved a 1,100 page report evaluating Bolsonaro’s denial of the COVID-19 pandemic and his disastrous handling of it.[50] Brazil has had the most deaths from COVID, 685,422 in total, after the United States.[51] Despite his disastrous handling of the COVID-19 epidemic, Bolsonarismo has a strong social base. Even a robust win for the PT will not make this base go away overnight. Centuries of white supremacy and class rule have segregated Brazilian society along class, racial, and gender lines.
Black Brazilians continue to face an epidemic of police violence and systemic discrimination. Journalist Jean Wyllys, Brazil’s second openly gay member of parliament and first gay-rights activist congressman, and translator and activist Julie Wark, summarize the struggles of Black and indigenous Brazilians: “The human and physical destructiveness of capitalism, a system in which pretos (Blacks), whose slave labour was essential toits construction, are very far from the spheres of power, wealth, and decision-making. Rather, they are under the yoke and marginalized. In Brazil, Blacks account for 75.2 percent of the population in the lowest income group whereas 25.4 percent of the general population lives in poverty; A Black person earns only 56.1 cents for every dollar a white person earns; 32.9% of Black people live below the poverty line ($5.50 per day); while 8.8 percent live in extreme poverty ($1.90 per day).”[52]
Anti-racist organizers in the U.S. can relate to the situation in Brazil. Just in 2019, Bolsanoro’s first year of governance, 31 activists were murdered for defending their land.[53] There were no convictions against any of the assassins. This is similar to what The Boston Globe calls “vehicle ramming” against Black Lives Matter protestors (The Globe has investigated 139 such hate crimes in the U.S. since the murder of George Floyd).
On September 8th, a Bolsominion, the slang name for Bolsonaro’s supporters, murdered a Lula supporter after a disagreement overpolitics.[54] These incidents have become more and more common. On September 17th, a group called the “Communist Hunters” warned the PT’s Minas Gerais state lawmaker Andréia de Jesus: “We are going to shoot you in the back like a traitor, Marielle (Franco) awaits you. Viva Ustra.”[55]
Recovery, Redemption, and Reparations: Which Way Forward?
I will forever be grateful to Binho, Mateuszinho, and Rene. My dozens of pages of quickly scribbled notes in my pocket notebooks speak to what they taught me. “As viagems formam a juventude,” (Travelling helps define our youth). My greatest tribute to them is helping fight for a world that does not confine our children from O Complexo do Alemão to the Bronx to a suffocating everyday rat-race battle for survival and a shred of dignity.
In his legendary essay, “Fifth Avenue, Uptown,” James Baldwin wrote “A ghetto can be improved in one way only: out of existence.”[56] Capitalism and white supremacy and their inevitable bastard offspring – generational trauma, gangs, drugs, misogyny, prison, and a long list of social ills – guarantee more human suffering and humiliation. Brazil suffers from a crack epidemic and alcoholism that has shattered hundreds of thousands of families. Bolsonarismo deploys rhetoric that enables the most retrograde actors a free reign to enact more violence upon women, the LGBT community, Black Brazilians, and Indigenous communities. What we are witnessing in Brazil is late neocolonialism’s desperate attempts to divide society and scapegoat the most oppressed layers so that society’s overlords can save their own skin.
While Río de Janeiro is butone small piece of the fabric of a diverse society of 210 million people spread across the world’s most diverse lands in terms of fauna, flora, and animal species, these human stories are a microcosm of the lives and struggles of how many millions of working-class Brazilians?[57]
Every victory for the Partido dos Trabalhadores, and other progressive parties like the PCdoB and the Psol at the local, state, and federal level–and chiefly, of course, for Lula at the presidential level–brings Brazil and this generation of fighters that much closer to realizing Baldwin’s dream.
Danny Shaw is Senior Research Fellow at COHA and an academic at City University of New York.
Fred Mills, COHA’s Deputy Director, and Jill Clark-Gollub, COHA Assistant Editor/Translator, edited this essay.
Sources
[1] Estrategista de Trump, Steve Bannon ecoa Bolsonaro em mentiras sobre urnas eletrônicas”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_3WSn7jOfo
[2] “Why Brazil’s Bolsonaro is courting evangelicals in the world’s biggest Catholic nation”,
[4] “Eleição este ano terá mais de 28 mil candidatos; veja os números”, https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/materias/2022/08/16/eleicao-este-ano-tera-mais-de-28-mil-candidatos-veja-os-numeros
[5] “YouTube Pushing Pro-Bolsonaro Content To Brazilians, Study Finds”, https://www.brasilwire.com/googles-youtube-platform-pushing-pro-bolsonaro-content-to-brazilians-finds-study/
[11] “Pesquisa Datafolha para presidente: Lula tem 45%; e Bolsonaro, 33%”, https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/pesquisa-datafolha-para-presidente-lula-tem-45-e-bolsonaro-33/
[12] “Mentiras sobre Bolsonaro mostram que ninguém está livre das fake news”, https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/mentiras-sobre-bolsonaro-mostram-que-ninguem-esta-livre-das-fake-news
[13] “Voters see through Bolsonaro’s Economic Populism, Poll Says”, https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2022/08/04/voters-bolsonaro-economic-populism/
[15] “Datafolha: Lula reage entre evangélicos, e vantagem de Bolsonaro recua sete pontos”, https://extra.globo.com/noticias/politica/datafolha-lula-reage-entre-evangelicos-vantagem-de-bolsonaro-recua-sete-pontos-25573698.html
[16] “Why Brazil’s Bolsonaro is courting evangelicals in the world’s biggest Catholic nation”, https://www.wlrn.org/news/2022-08-25/why-brazils-bolsonaro-is-courting-evangelicals-in-the-worlds-biggest-catholic-nation
[22] Cerca de 40 milhoes de pessoas ingressaram na classe aponta pesquisa”, https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/cerca-de-40-milhoes-de-pessoas-ingressaram-na-classe-aponta-pesquisa-da-fgv-2756988
[23] “Dilma assina regulamentação dos direitos das domésticas, diz Planalto”, https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2015/06/dilma-assina-regulamentacao-dos-direitos-das-domesticas-diz-planalto.html
[24] “Impactos da Redução do Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados (IPI) de Automóveis”, https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/2009_nt015_agosto_dimac.pdf
[26] “The Persistence of Inequity in Brazilian Higher Education: Background Data and Student Performance”, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-69691-7_4
[29] “Para lutar por direitos sociais e trabalhistas, CUT lança 49 candidatos no país”, https://www.cut.org.br/noticias/para-lutar-por-direitos-sociais-e-trabalhistas-cut-lanca-48-candidatos-no-pais-54a2
[31] “Para lutar por direitos sociais e trabalhistas, CUT lança 49 candidatos no país”, https://www.cut.org.br/noticias/para-lutar-por-direitos-sociais-e-trabalhistas-cut-lanca-48-candidatos-no-pais-54a2
[32] “What is the MST?”, https://www.mstbrazil.org/content/what-mst
[34] “The Most Important Election in the Americas is in Brazil’, https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/09/01/the-most-important-election-in-the-americas-is-in-brazil/
[39] “Braga Netto, o general que Bolsonaro escolheu como candidato a vice”, https://www.infomoney.com.br/perfil/walter-braga-netto/
[40] “10 Reasons Why UN Occupation of Haiti Must End”, https://haitiliberte.com/10-reasons-why-un-occupation-of-haiti-must-end/
[41] “Number of deaths caused by police intervention in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil from 2003 to 2021”, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1007090/number-deaths-police-intervention-rio-brazil/
[44] “The Question Menacing Brazil’s Elections: Coup or No Coup?”, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/world/americas/brazil-election-bolsonaro-coup.html
[52] “Brazil, Amazon, World: Being Black”, https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/07/21/brazil-amazon-world-being-black/
[53] “Zero convictions as impunity blocks justice for victims of Brazil’s rural violence”, https://news.mongabay.com/2021/02/zero-convictions-as-impunity-blocks-justice-for-victims-of-brazils-rural-violence/
[54] “Apoiador de Bolsonaro mata defensor de Lula a facadas em MT após discussão”, https://www.cartacapital.com.br/politica/apoiador-de-bolsonaro-mata-defensor-de-lula-a-facadas-em-mt-apos-discussao/
The Albanese government’s proposed National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) would have a broad scope but only hold public hearings “in exceptional circumstances and where it is in the public interest to do so”.
The “exceptional circumstances” provision immediately came under some questioning after Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus announced the design of the commission on Tuesday. Dreyfus will introduce the legislation for the new body on Wednesday. The government expects to have it passed in November.
Independent MP Helen Haines, who has been in the forefront of the battle for a federal integrity body, said the reference to exceptional circumstances would be the first thing she would look at when the bill came.
Independent senator David Pocock said: “The independent commission should be able to make hearings public if they believe it is in the public interest, not be constrained to do so in ‘exceptional’ circumstances”.
Dreyfus justified setting the bar at “exceptional circumstances” by saying public hearings “raise questions about reputational harm, which are not faced when you hold private hearings.
“And that’s why most of these commissions’ work has been done in private. We would expect the same to occur with this new Commonwealth agency”.
The independent commission, for which the government is allocating $262 million over four years, will be able to investigate “serious or systemic corrupt conduct” across the Commonwealth sector.
This covers politicians and their staff, statutory office holders, employees of all government entities and government contractors.
It will be able to initiate its own inquiries as well as respond to referrals including from whistleblowers and the public; it will also be able to investigate matters that occurred before its establishment.
Dreyfus made it clear the commission – which will be overseen by a parliamentary committee – would have a great deal of discretion in deciding what fell within its remit.
Asked whether various scandals that occurred under the Morrison government, such as the sports rorts affair, would warrant investigation as potentially corrupt conduct, Dreyfus said that would be a matter for the commission to decide.
On retrospectivity, it would be up to the commission how far back it went.
Dreyfus said the commission would be able to investigate third parties “whose conduct influences the improper conduct of a public official, or the failure by a public official to act impartially”.
The bill had “a very broad definition of corrupt conduct”, Dreyfus said.
Pressed on whether people would fear the commission was being given too wide a remit, Dreyfus said: “Well, people should be afraid if they’ve been engaged in corrupt activities”.
The legislation contains whistleblower protections, and separately the government is strengthening general protections for whistleblowers.
The attorney-general dodged questioning on whether anyone in the government might refer Morrison government scandals to the commission, but said it would be inappropriate for him, as minister responsible for the commission, to make referrals to the body.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton, who has had discussions with Anthony Albanese about the commission, said on the ABC Four Corners on Monday, “I’ve indicated publicly and privately to the prime minister that we will support a sensible
integrity commission. I don’t want a show trial. I don’t want people’s
lives destroyed.”
The bill will go to a parliamentary inquiry.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania
Australians watched in horror last week as 230 pilot whales became stranded at a beach near Macquarie Harbour on Tasmania’s west coast. Some whales were saved, but the vast majority died. This left a big problem: what to do with all the rotting whale carcasses?
Authorities decided to tow the dead animals out to sea, hoping they’ll eventually sink to the seafloor.
Such mass whale strandings are sad to witness. But in this case, the aftermath presents a fascinating opportunity for scientific discovery.
As the dead whales decompose, an astonishing and rare chain of events is likely to flow through the marine ecosystem – ultimately leading to an explosion of activity and new life.
Authorities decided to tow the dead animals out to sea, hoping they’ll eventually sink to the seafloor. Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania
A 600-tonne problem
Mass whale strandings happen fairly regularly – especially in Tasmania – yet no one really knows why.
Days before this latest incident, 14 sperm whales became stranded off King Island, northwest of Tasmania.
And in 2020, about 470 pilot whales became stranded at Macquarie Harbour. While many were pulled out to sea, some of those carcasses washed up and were left to rot on the beach – an entirely natural process.
However, pilot whales are big animals. Males weigh up to 2,300kg, which means they take a long time to decompose. The smell of two tonnes of rotting whale blubber soon becomes unbearable, so carcasses are frequently buried.
This time around, authorities decided to tow the dead animals out to sea. The ABC reported local salmon farm workers took almost 11 hours to dispose of 204 dead whales with a combined weight of between 500 and 600 tonnes.
They were tied to a 400 metre-long rope and towed by boats for 40 kilometres, before being dropped into deep water in the Indian Ocean.
Some carcasses may wash back to shore, but most are likely to disperse with the tides and currents.
Mass whale strandings happen fairly regularly, yet no one really knows why. Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania
Shark bait? Probably not
The big question is: what happens to all that whale mass dumped at sea?
Initially, a dead whale tends to float to the surface as it begins to decompose and its innards expand with gas. As this happens, ocean scavengers such as sharks and seabirds are likely to feast on the remains.
Some people can be concerned that whale carcasses attract sharks that might pose a risk to humans.
Granted, encounters between sharks and humans, are on the rise in Australia and elsewhere. But they’re still very rare.
A report to the Western Australian government in 2012 found whale carcasses were a risk factors associated with shark attacks, and said caution should be exercised near a dead whale in the water.
But the same report noted that of 26 shark attacks investigated, the highest number occurred more than a kilometre offshore. While there is no doubt sharks are attracted to dead whales, the data is not clear on whether a whale carcass leads directly to an increase in shark attacks on people.
Research has shown the likelihood of whale carcasses washing towards shore, where shark scavenging can be observed, is low. So as long as the carcass is taken far from shore and people keep their distance from it, the threat to humans from shark encounters appears to be exceedingly low.
Dead floating whales provide a feast for animal scavengers. Pictured: seabirds feed on a large whale carcass floating off Spain in 2018. EFE/SASEMAR
From death comes new life
Inevitably, the whale carcass will start to sink. Most life in the ocean is found relatively close to the sea surface, so if the water is relatively shallow much of what’s left of the carcass will be quickly eaten by scavengers once it reaches the sea floor.
But these carcasses have been disposed of in deep water. The deep ocean can be a barren place, where rich food sources are rare. So the appearance of a single whale carcass can supercharge an entire ecosystem.
New life and activity can erupt around the dead animal in very little time. This process is known as “whale fall” and has been studied by scientists, sometimes using remotely operated vehicles. On the seafloor of the North Pacific, whale fall has been found to support the survival of at least 12,490 organisms of 43 species.
Deep sea sharks will make the most of the carcass. A host of other animals including hagfish, octopus, crabs, lobsters, worms and sea cucumbers will join in too. All the while bacteria work away quietly in the background.
According to Britain’s Natural History Museum, a single whale can provide animals with food for up to two years during the scavenging stage.
Other animals and bacteria survive off the chemicals produced from the rotting carcass.
These organisms, known as “chemotrophs” were thought to be unique to underwater volcanic vents, where they use hydrogen sulphide as the principal energy source. Research has shown a similar suite of animals recruit around dead and decaying whales – generating a completely independent ecosystem based on a gas that smells like rotten eggs.
Only a few organisms can break down the bones that remain, in a process that might take up to ten years.
So take a moment to consider the effect of 204 whale falls in a small part of the ocean off Tasmania. Right now, they are probably generating interconnected marine metropolises, the likes of which are rarely seen.
Culum Brown receives funding from Australian Research Council, Taronga Zoo, Sea World Research and Rescue Foundation
The National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) has a new chair and for the first time it is a disabled person – former paralympian Kurt Fearnley. His appointment, along with that of two new directors, Graeme Innes (former disability discrimination commissioner) and Maryanne Diamond (Australian Network on Disability board member), brings the number of people with disability on the board to five.
But will these appointments go far enough in terms of helping to reset the scheme and restore it to its original aspirations?
Over recent years the NDIA has developed a serious trust problem with the disability community.
Last year saw significant debate around the proposal to introduce Independent Assessments, which the NDIA claimed would help address fairness issues in the scheme. The reform was dropped after backlash from the disability community, who believed it was merely an attempt to cut costs.
Research also shows issues with fairness in the scheme have less to do with amounts allocated to individual participant plans, but more to do with participants’ ability to actually spend their funding. This is notable in “thin markets” where fewer service providers are available.
It is especially hard for participants from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, people with psychosocial disability (such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and social anxiety disorders) and those in regional and remote areas to utilise their plan allocations.
Earlier this year there were widespread reports of unexpected cuts to plan budgets that meant, for some, funding for existing supports disappeared overnight – participants lost independence and experienced significant disruption to their lives and that of their families.
As a result, the number of participants disputing plan decisions through the Administrative Appeals Tribunal increased significantly. Resolution of these disputes takes time and effort on the part of individuals contesting their plan assessments. And the NDIA spends large amounts (over $A30 million between 2021 and 2022) on legal fees.
And there has been outrage at reports of NDIS fraud, in which as much as $6 billion a year might be being misused, including by organised crime syndicates.
All of these challenges have taken place against a background of the COVID pandemic. People with disability often felt forgotten in public health responses. Even when people with disability were prioritised, plans were often not implemented effectively.
Now many COVID restrictions have been lifted, a number of people with disability feel they have no choice but to remain at home, isolated from the wider community.
Co-design and decision-making by people with disability
In recent years, NDIS co-design with people with disability has been lacking or non-existent and the scheme has moved away from its original vision that gave people with disability voice within it.
People with disability using NDIS services have not been given a role in shaping the scheme, making decisions about it or contributing to innovations. Those making decisions have never experienced what it is like to navigate the complexities of the NDIS or the challenges with securing supports in a way that is meaningful to their lives.
For these reasons, many in the disability community have expressed mistrust in the NDIA to prioritise their needs and secure their rights.
The appointment of a chair and greater number of board members with lived experience of disability means there will be better understanding of the types of issues, challenges and frustrations people with disability face at a day-to-day level in interacting with the scheme and service providers. The board’s new chair has declared his goal to rebuild “a thriving NDIS” that puts people with disability in positions of power “centred around choice and control”.
This should mean the NDIS has better insight into where some of the main challenges of the scheme lie and how to deal with these issues in more effective and insightful ways.
Are these appointments enough?
Alongside the appointment of a new chair to the NDIA board, a new NDIA CEO has also been appointed. Rebecca Falkingham will be the first woman to permanently hold the role, having previously served as the Victorian Department of Justice and Community Safety Secretary.
Some within the disability community have expressed concern that in not appointing a person with disability to this leadership role, there has been a missed opportunity and this sends a negative message about the capability of people with disability to lead organisations that are central to their lives.
Kurt Fearnley won gold for the men’s marathon T-54 at the Athens 2004 Paralympic Games. AP Photo/Petros Karadjias
Whether the NDIS is successful in building back the trust of the disability community and addressing some of the significant challenges it faces, will largely come down to the ability of the new CEO to work constructively with the reformed board. Certainly the appointment of three people with lived experience of disability onto the board is a positive step towards co-design and resetting the scheme closer to its original vision.
But there is some distance to go to fully realise the intents of the scheme.
Global stock markets are tanking on fears of recessions in the US, the UK and Europe, and the OECD is actually forecasting recessions in Europe.
So is recession now inevitable in Australia? Not at all.
The good news is there are several reasons to think Australia might be able to escape a global slide into recession – though it will need careful management.
What could push Australia into recession?
Here’s the worst case scenario. The United States keeps pushing up interest rates until it brings on a recession, and Australia gets pressured to do the same.
Here’s how it’s playing out at the moment. The US Federal Reserve has lifted rates at each of its past five meetings. The past three hikes have been massive by Australian and US standards – 0.75 percentage points each, enough to slow already-forecast US economic growth to a trickle, which is what the Fed wants to fight inflation.
But the Fed is planning to go further. Its chair, Jerome Powell says he expects ongoing increases, and last week countenanced the possibility they would throw the country into recession:
We don’t know, no one knows, whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be. That’s going to depend on how quickly wage and price inflation pressures come down, whether expectations remain anchored, and whether also we get more labour supply.
Powell is saying he is prepared to risk a recession to get inflation down.
The UK’s top banker already expects a recession
Powell’s not alone. His UK equivalent, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, has lifted rates seven times since December. Bailey says he is prepared to do more to fight inflation – “forcefully, as necessary” – and is actually forecasting a recession, which he says has probably started.
So alarmed is the new UK government headed by Liz Truss that on Friday it unveiled a £45 billion (A$75 billion) “growth plan” made up of tax cuts and infrastructure spending, on top of spending of £60 billion (A$100 billion) to cap household and business energy bills.
Given what’s now happening overseas, you might expect Australia’s Reserve Bank to take note and behave differently to central banks overseas.
Except that it’s not that quite easy.
Pressure to follow the US
Whenever the US hikes interest rates (it’s hiked them seven times since March), investors buy US dollars to take advantage of the higher rates. This forces up the price of the US dollar in relation to currencies of countries that didn’t hike.
This means unless countries such as Australia hike in line with the US, the values of their currencies are likely to fall in relation to the US dollar – meaning their values are likely to fall in relation to the currency in which most trade takes place.
This means more expensive imports, which means more inflation.
And Australia’s Reserve Bank is trying to contain inflation.
The upshot is whenever the US pushes up rates (no matter how recklessly) there’s pressure on Australia to do the same, simply to stop inflation getting worse.
The risk of ‘a gratuitously severe recession’
Since March, when the US began pushing up interest rates more aggressively than Australia, the value of the Australian dollar has slid from US0.73 to less than $US0.65, putting upward pressure on goods traded in US dollars of about 11%.
Prime Minister Liz Truss. The British pound has hit an all-time low. Neil Hall/EPA
With Australian inflation already forecast to hit 7.75% this year, way above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target, still more inflation is what the bank doesn’t want.
This locks countries such as Britain (whose currency has fallen to an all-time low against the US in the wake of the tax cuts) and Japan (whose government has intervened to try to stop its currency falling) into a semi-dependent relationship with the US.
Failing to follow its lead makes inflation worse.
It is why US economist Paul Krugman says there is serious risk the Fed’s actions “will push America and the world into a gratuitously severe recession”.
Going your own way can hurt your dollar
The risk isn’t merely that the US will go too far. The risk is that other countries, including ours, will ape the US in pushing up rates to maintain the value of their currencies, amplifying the effect of a US recession and making it global.
It’s often said that central banks hunt in packs. What’s less often noted is the pressure they are under to follow each other.
In Australia, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver puts it starkly: if the Reserve Bank doesn’t follow the US Fed, the Australian dollar might crash.
But here’s the good news. We know Australia can avoid the worst of global economic downturns, because we’ve done it before.
How Australia has avoided past recessions – and can again
In part, this has been due to excellent judgement. Our Reserve Bank was able to take clear-eyed decisions about when to follow the US on rates and when not to.
At times it was helped by high commodity prices, which are high again following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and which are supporting our currency, even though we are increasing rates less aggressively than the United States.
At the right moment, Australia’s Reserve Bank would be wise to decouple from the US. If the Fed pushes up rates to the point where it is about to bring on a US recession, Australia would be well advised to stand back and not lift rates, letting the collapse of the US economy bring down inflation by itself.
If Australia’s Reserve Bank thinks that moment is approaching, it should consider shrinking the size of its rate rises (the last four have been 0.5 percentage points).
Its next meeting is next Tuesday. Because of its importance, the Bureau of Statistics is bringing forward the publication of its new monthly measure of inflation to this Thursday, publishing the results for both July and August at once.
But the bank will need more than information. It’ll need the intuition and common sense that has kept us out of trouble in the past.
Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The first rental electric scooters quietly appeared on the streets of Brisbane in late 2018. Four years later, distinctively coloured e-scooters are seemingly everywhere, with trial schemes popping up in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, Darwin and Perth.
Outside Australia, scooter share schemes are now operating in dozens of cities worldwide, and growth is expected to continue.
E-scooters offer commuters and tourists a way to cover shorter distances quickly – and without breaking a sweat. It’s for this reason Australian cities are trialling these schemes as part of broader interest in micromobility – small, light and often electric ways of getting around, such as bikes, e-bikes and e-scooters.
But one question previously unanswered is: what about the weather? If the skies open, do e-scooter users switch to cars or public transport? What about intense summer heat?
Our new research on the Brisbane e-scooter trial found trips actually increase as the heat rises, compared to human-powered bikes which see declining use in hotter weather.
When it’s wet, e-scooters remain more popular than bike share schemes – but not by much. We found around 32% of e-scooter trips take place in wet weather – compared to around 28% of bikesharing trips
What else did we find?
We looked at how e-scooter trips, destinations, and patterns of use vary based on weather. A large dataset of trips (more than 800,000) was provided to us by Neuron, one of the two scooter-sharing companies active in Brisbane.
We found e-scooter trips rise alongside the heat index, which measures the combined feeling of heat and humidity. People are likely to turn to them to avoid sweating up one of Brisbane’s many hills on foot.
Overall, and perhaps as expected, e-scooters are more appealing to people in Brisbane when it’s warm but lose appeal in wet conditions. Even so, it seems weather might matter less for e-scooters compared to bikesharing.
We found people tend to use scooters for recreation or to get somewhere fun, more than using them for utilitarian reasons such as going to work. But interestingly, utilitarian trips are becoming more common as people become more used to having scooters around.
As you might expect, e-scooter use is concentrated around the inner city, and trip lengths are mostly under 15 minutes. Users are typically younger, male and more educated – perhaps reflecting scooter locations where university students tend to live.
In Singapore, researchers have found e-scooter ridership actually falls as daytime temperatures rise. By contrast, in the Texas city of Austin, ridership falls when daytime temperatures get cooler and as wind rises.
Most people take e-scooters along dedicated bike paths, such as the popular path along the Brisbane River. In fact, the riverfront bike path which runs through Brisbane is far and away the most popular location to scoot. The bike path is car-free, and connects the CBD to popular restaurant and nightlife strips.
During wet weather, scooter riders show an even greater preference for bike paths – potentially to avoid perceived heightened risk on slippery roads and footpaths.
Where are people going to? We found the overwhelming majority of places people start and end their trips are parks, strips of shops and suburbs, regardless of weather. Around one fifth of all trips are used to go from one residential suburb to another.
Weather plays a part here too. Wet weather trips tend to be shorter and more concentrated around the CBD and the river, possibly because most of Brisbane’s dedicated cycling infrastructure is here.
Bikesharing schemes have daily spikes in use for the morning and afternoon commutes as well as during lunchtime. By contrast, e-scooters see more use during the afternoon and evening. This indicates scooters are being used more as part of a night out or to get to dinner.
Brisbane’s riverside bike paths are the most popular places to scoot. Shutterstock
Why does this matter?
Though you might not think it – especially if you commute by car – weather plays a huge role in our daily decisions about how to get where we want to go. If heavy rain sets in, more people switch from bikes or public transport to cars.
The weather outside your front door influences where, when and how you travel. Scaled up, this means the weather can affect congestion, pollution and the experience of travel.
Weather has the most effect on transport modes where we’re not sheltered from the elements, such as walking and running, as well as micromobility modes such as shared e-scooters, e-bikes, bicycles and skateboards. Importantly, these modes are a vital part of making transport in cities sustainable.
Very few cities are trying to encourage more car traffic. By contrast, many are trying to create the conditions where walking, scooting and other non-polluting, space-minimal transport modes can flourish. Weather plays an important part in this. With climate breakdown looming, understanding weather impacts on travel has become crucial.
Anthony Kimpton has received funding from the Australian Research Infrastructure Netowrk (AURIN), and has been employed on multiple projects funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC).
Dorina Pojani has received research funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and the Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network (AURIN)
Jonathan Corcoran receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network (AURIN).
Thomas Sigler receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Julia Loginova and Richard Bean do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Once again, Iran is in the midst of political upheaval and civil unrest. The latest protests, triggered by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after her arrest by the morality police, follow several other protests that have occurred in Iran over recent years.
So what is new about this latest round of demonstrations? Here are three key ways these protests are different.
1. Public support for these protests appears higher and more widespread
At the crux of the latest demonstrations is Iran’s morality police, which is tasked with enforcing strict codes around dress and behaviour.
The morality police arrested Mahsa Amini earlier this month, saying she was wearing her hijab too loosely. She subsequently died. Her family say she was beaten (a claim rejected by the government and police).
Whatever transpired, the Amini case has triggered a groundswelling of public anger around the behaviour of the morality police, with protesters demanding women be given the right to choose what to wear.
The anger this diverse group feels over government interference in people’s personal decisions has found a fitting platform in the present protests.
Since the early 1980s, when the ruling clergy consolidated power by eliminating opposition groups, social regulation and strict rules around lifestyle have formed the crux of their policies.
Government meddling in the private lives of its citizens was once far more pervasive, extensive, and stringent. For example, homes were searched for VCRs and satellite dishes.
In time, such restrictions were relaxed (to some degree). For women, however, the rules remain highly discriminatory. Government dos and don’ts are still heavily enforced. The Iranian government persists in denying women their fundamental rights; the debate over the headscarf and women’s dress is just one visible manifestation of this.
Apart from being demeaning and degrading, these regulations make day-to-day living extremely difficult for a great number of women who do not agree with the clergy.
Today, it’s hard to find someone in Iran who hasn’t been harassed at least once by the ruling clergy in some way.
That is why, compared to previous demonstrations in Iran, the number of people who support the current protests appears quite high and widespread. Protests are underway in cities large and small, neighbourhoods rich and poor.
Women’s rights are at the centre of these protests, while previous protests have focused more on economic or broader political issues.
The government’s intrusion into citizens – especially women citizen’s – private lives is the source of the demonstrations this time around. It has proved difficult so far, for the government to explain their policies in a way that is convincing for many people.
3. The courage shown during these demonstrations is unprecedented
All protest comes at enormous personal risk in Iran. But these latest protesters have done some unusually brave things. The courage shown by protesters is unprecedented.
Some women have removed their headscarves in the street or set them on fire. Some have cut their hair in public.
Many videos appear to show anti-riot police failing to disperse the crowd, and even protesters occasionally pushing back police.
The scale of the demonstrations and the degree of anger among these latest protestors is unusual.
Will these protests bring lasting change?
It is too early to say. Iran’s leaders have shown time and time again they are not interested in yielding to popular demands.
The Iranian leadership may fear appeasing protesters would just encourage further demands and may even trigger their downfall.
And while the latest demonstrations are widespread, they are also dispersed.
There is no guarantee the different demonstrations underway in various cities will be able to coalesce around a single, coherent movement.
The demonstrations are also hampered by the absence of a cohesive leadership and, it would seem, any kind of methodical organisation.
Whether or not these demonstrations result in significant change, they have undoubtedly come at a cost to Iran’s ruling clergy.
Perhaps the most significant of these costs is the effect these protests have had on the already dwindling legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, both domestically and internationally.
Naser Ghobadzadeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The changes in our work preferences have highlighted how vulnerable our cities are to economic shocks. Moves to entice (or compel) workers back to the office may be just a short-term fix for precincts now struggling with low levels of foot traffic.
Historic zoning practices created separate areas of residential, commercial and industrial activity in our cities. This practice created whole precincts like the CBD and residential suburbs dedicated to a single use.
The lack of diversity arising from this pattern of development ultimately reduces resilience when conditions change. It is arguably one of urban planning’s greatest failures.
Proposed zoning in 1952, dividing Brisbane into residential, commercial, industrial and recreation zones. Brisbane City Council
The most resilient places during COVID-19 lockdowns were those that had a diverse industrial employment mix. It meant they did not rely on a single sector for jobs – and the lockdown impacts varied from sector to sector.
For example, Melbourne’s last remaining inner-city industrial zone, Port Melbourne, provides a diverse mix of production as well as commercial services. It was among the most resilient places of employment in Australia to COVID impacts. This example offers valuable insight into a truly “mixed use” precinct.
Areas with diverse land uses became the goal of new planning policies that emerged in the 1980s. By introducing zoning changes, policymakers hoped to replicate the vibrant, dense and localised environments of older cities that predated the rise of cars.
However, our research shows policies that aimed to increase land-use mix do the opposite in practice.
Streets of Amsterdam in the Netherlands. vonderauvisuals/flickr
Our research tracked changes in land use and zoning for over 10,000 parcels of land in Brisbane from 1951 to 2021. We selected six precincts 1-10km from the city centre. These precincts are now zoned as mixed-use and high-density, with more diverse land use as the goal.
We created a comprehensive data set by digitising historic land use (1951) and zoning maps (1952 and 1987) and integrating this with data from 2021.
Brisbane City Council’s 1951 Land Use Survey. Brisbane City Council
Our research found a large increase in commercially zoned land across all study areas. Rezoning former industrial precincts accounted for most of this increase. While residential use remained the dominant land use across all study areas, commercial use grew from 2.3% of combined land area in 1951 to 28.9% in 2021.
As a result, by 2021, commercial services provided almost all the jobs in these areas. Most of the land zoned as mixed use, which allows low-impact industry (such as vehicle repairers, shop fitters and printers), was used for housing, shops, gyms or offices.
By allowing open competition between commercial, residential and industrial uses, policy aiming to diversify land uses has the opposite effect of sidelining industrial use. One reason is that centrally located industrial sites are often large and under single ownership, which makes them a prime target for developers.
A riverfront milk factory in Brisbane, one of the last inner-city manufacturers. Rachel Gallagher
Policymakers have sought to minimise the connection between industrial decline and an economic growth model centred on property development. Instead, they often attribute this decline to globalisation or the changing economy.
Yet our research shows industrial zoning does protect industrial land. Areas that were zoned for heavier industrial uses in 1987 retain some kind of industrial use in 2021.
What sort of industry are we talking about?
Industry today, particularly manufacturing, is no longer characterised by large-scale industrial production with heavy machinery. Most Australian manufacturers are small businesses, ranging from micro breweries to clothing and textile producers and custom bike shops.
And inner-city locations attract manufacturers for the same reasons they attract services sector firms. These areas offer access to large markets, skilled labour and specialised suppliers.
A local manufacturer in Brisbane’s West End. Rachel Gallagher
Yet the remaining centrally located, industrially zoned sites, suitable for industrial equipment and containing loading docks and other supporting infrastructure, are vulnerable to displacement by residential and commercial development.
The idea that land should be put to its “highest and best use”, in an economy that values residential and commercial development above all else, undermines the city’s resilience.
If the role of planning authorities is to regulate land use in the community’s interest, it is questionable whether simply giving priority to its most lucrative use does that. Policymakers should reconsider planning that creates open competition between industrial and residential or commercial uses.
Our research contributes to the growing evidence that zoning can be used to protect diverse land use, rather than simply enable land-use conversions. More active planning is required to deliver the goals of truly mixed-use urban precincts.
Rachel Gallagher has worked as a Senior Planner in Queensland’s Department of State Development, Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning.
Thomas Sigler and Yan Liu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The New South Wales state election will be held in six months, in March 2023. A Newspoll, conducted September 19-22 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 54-46 lead (it was 52.0-48.0 to the Coalition at the March 2019 election). Primary votes were 40% Labor (33.3% at the last election), 35% Coalition (41.6%), 12% Greens (9.6%) and 13% for all others (15.5%).
NSW Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet had ratings of 47% satisfied, 41% dissatisfied, while Labor leader Chris Minns was at 42% satisfied, 27% dissatisfied. Perrottet led by 39-35 as better premier. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger.
A NSW Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of 1,170, gave Labor 43% of the primary vote (up nine since February), the Coalition 30% (down seven), the Greens 10% (up two), the Shooters 2% (steady), independents 10% (down three) and others 5% (down one).
Two party estimates aren’t given by Resolve until near elections, but with a 13-point primary vote lead over the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, Labor is in a dominant position in this poll. The Poll Bludger estimated a 60-40 Labor two party margin.
Despite the blowout lead for Labor, the preferred premier measure was tied at 28% each between Perrottet and Minns (32-29 to Minns in February).
Independent support was at 10% in the NSW poll and 12% in the Victorian Resolve poll below. These figures are very likely to be too high, as Resolve is currently asking for an independent in all seats. Once candidate nominations for the election close, Resolve will only ask for independents in seats where a viable independent is contesting.
These two polls are the best results for NSW Labor since they won the 2007 state election. There has been a large swing to Labor since the previous Resolve poll in February, probably somewhat owing to the scandals around former Nationals leader John Barilaro.
The Resolve poll is likely to be a Labor-favouring outlier, but Newspoll also has Labor well ahead. Labor has made large gains in NSW polls since early this year.
I would expect the federal Labor government to drag down state Labor parties, but this isn’t happening so far. Federal Labor is still at “honeymoon” poll ratings, while the NSW Coalition government is nearly 12 years old.
Victorian Resolve poll: Labor way ahead
The Victorian election is on November 26. Primary votes in a state Resolve poll for The Age were 42% Labor (up five since April), 28% Coalition (down five), 12% Greens (up two), 12% independents (up one) and 6% others (down three).
Two party estimates aren’t given by Resolve until closer to elections, but with a 14-point primary vote lead over the Coalition and 12% for the Greens, Labor is in a dominant position in this poll. The Poll Bludger’s estimated two party was 60-40 to Labor.
Incumbent Labor Premier Daniel Andrews led the Liberals’ Matthew Guy by 46-28 as preferred premier (48-31 in April). This poll would have been conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of about 1,100.
The Poll Bludger said Labor was down one point on the 2018 lower house result on primary votes in this Resolve poll, while the Coalition was down seven. If this result were to be applied to the upper house, it would likely be a disaster for the Coalition under group voting tickets, as they would win few seats on filled quotas, and be vulnerable to preference snowballs.
Republic support slumps in federal Resolve poll, but Indigenous Voice has 64% support
In the federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that I covered previously, support for Australia becoming a republic slumped from 54-46 in favour in January, to 54-46 opposed. This was a forced choice question.
On whether to hold a referendum on becoming a republic, 32% wanted to wait until after further consideration of King Charles III, 30% didn’t want a vote at all, and 21% wanted a vote as soon as possible.
Queen Elizabeth II was rated good by 75% and poor by just 5%.
For his three years as governor-general, David Hurley was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%. About 45% thought Charles III would perform well, and 14% badly.
In a proposed referendum on establishing an Indigenous Voice to parliament, voters would support it by a 64-36 margin nationally. This result was based on both the August and September Resolve polls for a combined sample of 3,618.
This was done to have sizeable samples for each state, since a successful referendum requires majorities in four of the six states as well as overall. Support for the Voice was lowest in Queensland (59-41 in favour).
About 45% thought the Voice should take priority over the republic, while 27% thought the republic should be prioritised. And 24% said the Voice should only be about issues relating to Indigenous Australians, 26% about all issues and policy areas, and 22% didn’t support a Voice.
Around 75% said they were aware of the campaign for an Indigenous Voice. By 43-33, voters thought it unlikely the Voice would close the gap on issues such as health.
Morgan poll: federal Labor leads by 54.5-45.5
In last week’s Morgan weekly update video, federal Labor led by 54.5-45.5 from polling conducted September 12-18, a one point gain for Labor since the previous week.
This is Labor’s biggest lead in Morgan since the federal election.
Far-right wins Italian election
I covered Sunday’s Italian election for The Poll Bludger. The right coalition easily won majorities in both houses of the Italian parliament. Within that coalition, two far-right parties dominated. Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the Brothers of Italy, will be Italy’s first woman prime minister and first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini.
The article also covers next Sunday’s first round of the Brazilian presidential election, which the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is expected to lose to former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or “Lula”. If nobody wins at least 50% next Sunday, there will be an October 30 runoff.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeanine Young, Professor of Nursing & Deputy Head of School – Research, University of the Sunshine Coast, University of the Sunshine Coast
Carrying babies in a soft fabric sling or carrier close to their parent or caregiver has been practised throughout the world for centuries. However, the recent inquest into the death of a three-week old baby boy in New South Wales has highlighted the potential risks of this valued aspect of infant care.
Although rare, these tragic deaths may have been preventable. There are protective strategies parents and caregivers can use to reduce the risk of accidents and fatalities.
‘Wearing’ your baby
Baby slings and carriers allow parents to “wear” their baby. First used in traditional societies, baby-wearing has increased in western societies in recent decades.
As with almost all infant care practices, there are benefits and risks.
However, adverse outcomes from incorrect use include hip dysplasia, falls, burns and suffocation.
Commonly used but not well-understood
In Australia, baby-wearing is very common. A study conducted in Queensland with over 3,300 parents with babies aged 3–4 months, found 87% of parents had used a sling or baby carrier in the first three months of their baby’s life. Over one third had used a sling or carrier for baby to sleep in.
But while 65% of parents said they had read about how to use slings, less than one in five had heard of about internationally agreed upon sling safety advice, known as the TICKS rules.
A variety of designs were being used by those studied, including front fabric wrap or structured baby carrier styles, over the shoulder styles, ring slings, and traditional slings. Several of these styles are not recommended for babies under four months.
These findings highlighted that many parents may not be aware of potential dangers from use of infant products that do not match their baby’s growth and development.
Suffocation is the likely cause in most deaths associated with slings and baby carriers. To understand the risks, we need to understand babies’ bodies and how they usually develop.
In particular, we need to know how babies breathe and how the environment they are in can make breathing difficult. Typically, this interaction is dynamic – it changes as a baby grows and develops.
It’s important to note babies can have difficulty with breathing without making any noise or movement.
Compared to older children, babies have smaller and more easily compressed airways. And they have a large, heavy head relative to their body size, with a protruding occiput (that bony bump on the back of their head) that tips the head forward even when lying on their back.
Babies prefer to breathe through their noses. They have less respiratory stamina (their ability to respond to reduced oxygen) and less ability to control their temperature, particularly if their head is covered.
The anatomy and physiology of babies younger than 12 months means they are vulnerable to suffocation in several specific ways.
4 ways a baby’s airway can be at risk
We need to think about the baby’s airway as a tube. It needs to remain open for oxygen to get to the lungs. Everyone who cares for young babies needs to be aware this tube may be
covered
pinched off
bent
pressed on.
Any of these actions increase the risk of suffocation.
Babies under four months of age often lack the strength to move their heads to keep their airways clear. So if baby’s face is covered or pinched off by fabric or the wearer’s body, rapid suffocation can occur.
If baby is lying with a curved back in a C-position – such as in a baby capsule, sling or carrier – and the head is able to tip forward to chin-on-chest, their airway may bend. This too can result in reduced oxygen and slow suffocation.
Finally, if there is pressure on baby’s chest, such as when a carrier or sling is too tight around baby’s body, the infant might not be able to expand their chest to take deep enough breaths.
Babies born preterm, of low birth weight or those who are unwell need extra consideration and support to maintain a clear airway, compared to full term babies.
The 5-point checklist: TICKS
The TICKS checklist extends the idea of the airway as a tube that needs protecting. It is applicable to various circumstances such as infant car seats, bouncers and rockers, as well as slings and baby carriers. The five points promote safe baby-wearing by emphasising caregiver observation and optimal infant positioning to reduce suffocation risk. The baby should be positioned in a way that is
tight (firm enough to position baby high and upright with head support)
Currently there are no Australian standards for the manufacture of baby carriers and slings, despite slings developed in other countries being available for purchase in Australia.
Raising public awareness about safety and the TICKS checklist, together with recommendations for selecting and using slings and carriers appropriate for baby’s age and development, will help parents harness the benefits of using slings and carriers to keep their babies close and safe.
Jeanine Young is affiliated with the Queensland Child Death Review Board. Jeanine is also a volunteer Board Member. for Little Sparklers, a parent consumer and advocacy group. Jeanine was an active member of the Red Nose National Scientifid Advisory Group from 2004- June 2021 and the author of the Red Nose Information Statement: Slings, Baby Carriers and Backpacks.
