Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

Treasurer Jim Chalmers promised an “inflation-fighting and future-making budget” and he has delivered by introducing measures aimed at directly bringing down inflation.

Combined, his A$300-per-household energy rebate and his 10% increase to the maximum rate of Commonwealth Rent Assistance will cut inflation in the year ahead by 0.50 percentage points, or so his forecasts say.

This means during 2024-25 inflation is forecast to be 2.75% and within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band rather than 3.25%.

If the Reserve Bank is as good as its word, and prepared to cut interest rates as inflation moves back towards its target, we can expect a rate cut within the year.

Weak economic growth

Chalmers says he is treading a “responsible middle path” helping those most struggling with the higher cost of living and keeping us out of a recession, without spending so much he stimulates the economy excessively and drives inflation back up.

Economic growth is projected to pick up from an estimated 1.75% in 2023-24 to 2% in 2024-25 and 2.25% in 2025-26.

The main boost to consumer spending will come from the long-planned Stage 3 tax cuts. The government modified these earlier in the year so all taxpayers will benefit rather than just those on higher incomes.

It says they will add 1% to household disposable incomes.

Another change that may support consumers is more than three million Australians will have $3 billion less student debt.

It will now be indexed to whichever is lower, the Consumer Price Index or wages, rather than always the Consumer Price Index. The change will be backdated to June last year when wages growth was lower than prices growth, slashing the increase to apply from July this year from 7.1% to 3.2%.

Chalmers says the Future Made in Australia program – a plan to capture the economic benefits of moving to net zero – will cost $23 billion over the next decade. But less than $3 billion of that cost appears in the budget forecasts, which stretch over four years.

Employment is forecast to grow by only 0.75% during 2024-25, down from 2.25% during 2022-23. With the population growing faster, this will still mean the unemployment rate climbs to 4.5% by mid-2025.

Weak global outlook

Treasury expects the global economy to expand by a mediocre 3.25% over the next three years .

Growth in China, our largest customer, is expected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.25% in 2025 and 2026, reflecting problems in China’s property market.

The forecast underpins an expected halving of iron ore price from its recent peak. In accordance with its usual practice, Treasury assumes iron ore and coal prices will fall back to their “long-run anchors” by early 2025.

This usual practice has meant that for quite some time Treasury has under-estimated the prices of Australia’s main exports, and therefore underestimated company tax.

While this might occur again, the troubles of the Chinese property sector make a big fall in the price of iron ore more plausible this time.

Inflation and interest rates

Wages are expected to climb faster than prices over the forecast period but not so fast as to themselves put pressure on inflation.

Wage growth is forecast to slow from 4% during 2023-24 to 3.25% in 2024-25 and 2025-26. If things work out as planned, inflation will be back within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band by the end of this year, falling to 2.75% by the middle of next year and 2.5% by mid 2027.

Of course, the Reserve Bank’s latest forecasts do not take into account the measures announced by Chalmers in the budget.

If the forecasts are correct, the Reserve Bank is likely to cut interest rates sooner than the market expects, either late this year or in the first half of next year.

Critics will argue any measures which give households more money, even in the form of electricity price rebates, will add to inflation down the track.

But are the measures really large enough to materially add to inflationary pressures? Perhaps not. They amount to $3 billion out of total spending of almost $700 billion in 2024-25.

Another possible source of inflationary pressure is capacity constraints in the construction industry.

Read more:
Inflation is slowly falling while student debt is climbing: 6 graphs that explain the CPI

The Future Made in Australia package involves considerable infrastructure spending, and the budget also spends more on housing and on transport infrastructure. All will need skilled and unskilled labour.

At the same time, cuts to immigration will make a smaller contribution to expanding the construction workforce.

The government is forecasting net overseas migration of about 260,000 per year in the years ahead, down from 528,000 in 2022-23.

While elsewhere in the budget there are funds to train more construction workers, it will take a while for them to join the workforce.

An early budget next year?

Next year’s budget is likely to be brought forward to March to accommodate an election in May.

According to this budget, things will be looking pretty good by then – good enough for the Reserve Bank to feel much more comfortable about inflation and to have started cutting interest rates.

John Hawkins was formerly a senior economic analyst and forecaster in the Reserve Bank and Australian Treasury.

– ref. Budget 2024: Chalmers fights inflation, will it be enough for a rate cut? – https://theconversation.com/budget-2024-chalmers-fights-inflation-will-it-be-enough-for-a-rate-cut-229274

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

Treasurer Jim Chalmers promised an “inflation-fighting and future-making budget” and he has delivered by introducing measures aimed at directly bringing down inflation.

Combined, his A$300-per-household energy rebate and his 10% increase to the maximum rate of Commonwealth Rent Assistance will cut inflation in the year ahead by 0.50 percentage points, or so his forecasts say.

This means during 2024-25 inflation is forecast to be 2.75% and within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band rather than 3.25%.

If the Reserve Bank is as good as its word, and prepared to cut interest rates as inflation moves back towards its target, we can expect a rate cut within the year.

Chalmers says he is treading a “responsible middle path” helping those most struggling with the higher cost of living and keeping us out of a recession, without spending so much he stimulates the economy excessively and drives inflation back up.

The outlook for domestic activity

Economic growth is projected to pick up from an estimated 1.75% in 2023-24 to 2% in 2024-25 and 2.25% in 2025-26. The main boost to consumer spending will come from the long-planned Stage 3 tax cuts. The government modified these earlier in the year so all taxpayers will benefit rather than just those on higher incomes.

It says they will add 1% to household disposable incomes.

Another change that may support consumers is more than three million Australians will have $3 billion less student debt.

It will now be indexed to whichever is lower, the Consumer Price Index or wages, rather than always the Consumer Price Index. The change will be backdated to June last year when wages growth was lower than prices growth, slashing the increase to apply from July this year from 7.1% to 3.2%.

Chalmers says the Future Made in Australia program – a plan to capture the economic benefits of moving to net zero – will cost $23 billion over the next decade. But less than $3 billion of that cost appears in the budget forecasts, which stretch over four years.

Employment is forecast to grow by only 0.75% during 2024-25, down from 2.25% during 2022-23. With the population growing faster, this will still mean the unemployment rate climbs to 4.5% by mid-2025.

Global outlook

Treasury expects the global economy to expand by a mediocre 3.25% over the next three years .

Growth in China, our largest customer, is expected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.25% in 2025 and 2026, reflecting problems in China’s property market.

The forecast underpins an expected halving of iron ore price from its recent peak. In accordance with its usual practice, Treasury assumes iron ore and coal prices will fall back to their “long-run anchors” by early 2025.

This usual practice has meant that for quite some time Treasury has under-estimated the prices of Australia’s main exports, and therefore underestimated company tax.

While this might occur again, the troubles of the Chinese property sector make a big fall in the price of iron ore more plausible this time.

Inflation and interest rates

Wages are expected to climb faster than prices over the forecast period but not so fast as to themselves put pressure on inflation.

Wage growth is forecast to slow from 4% during 2023-24 to 3.25% in 2024-25 and 2025-26. If things work out as planned, inflation will be back within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band by the end of this year, falling to 2.75% by the middle of next year and 2.5% by mid 2027.

Of course, the Reserve Bank’s latest forecasts do not take into account the measures announced by Chalmers in the budget.

If the forecasts are correct, the Reserve Bank is likely to cut interest rates sooner than the market expects, either late this year or in the first half of next year.

Critics will argue any measures which give households more money, even in the form of electricity price rebates, will add to inflation down the track.

But are the measures really large enough to materially add to inflationary pressures? Perhaps not. They amount to $3 billion out of total spending of almost $700 billion in 2024-25.
Another possible source of inflationary pressure is capacity constraints in the construction industry.

The Future Made in Australia package involves considerable infrastructure spending, and the budget also spends more on housing and on transport infrastructure. All will need skilled and unskilled labour.

At the same time, cuts to immigration will make a smaller contribution to expanding the construction workforce.

The government is forecasting net overseas migration of about 260,000 per year in the years ahead, down from 528,000 in 2022-23.

While elsewhere in the budget there are funds to train more construction workers, it will take a while for them to join the workforce.

Looking ahead

Next year’s budget is likely to be brought forward to March to accommodate an election in May.

According to this budget, things will be looking pretty good by then – good enough for the Reserve Bank to feel much more comfortable about inflation and to have started cutting interest rates.

John Hawkins was formerly a senior economic analyst and forecaster in the Reserve Bank and Australian Treasury.

– ref. Budget 2024: As Chalmers fights inflation, will it be enough for a rate cut? – https://theconversation.com/budget-2024-as-chalmers-fights-inflation-will-it-be-enough-for-a-rate-cut-229274

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been bitten by the giveaway bug. This budget contains not only the well-foreshadowed tax cuts for all taxpayers, but a range of new spending measures in health, education, infrastructure, aged care and more. There are few savings measures.

There are no new taxes, only the promise of stronger tax compliance from the Australian tax office in receipts. On the spending side the largest saving comes from reduced spending on consultants and contractors to government.

This is bad news for any consultants who evade tax, but good news for almost everyone else.

Chalmers delivered a A$22 billion surplus in 2022-23. Barring some extraordinary disaster, he will deliver another, predicted at $9.3 billion, in the current year.

But it stops there. From the next financial year onwards, the budget year, and the three forward estimates years, it’s all deficits.

In isolation, whether a government has a surplus or deficit is not significant. It is largely a consequence of what are called “automatic stabilisers”. When the economy is doing well, unemployment and its associated benefit payments fall, income and company taxes rise. The reverse happens in a downturn.

For the past two years, the government has reaped the benefits of high employment and a booming iron ore price. To its credit, it has chosen to bank most of that windfall. It could keep doing that – but at a high political cost.

A key factor has been that notorious villain, bracket creep. As people’s incomes rise, they move into higher tax brackets and pay more income tax.

Read more:
Relief on energy bills for all in a federal budget that bets on lower inflation

Eventually taxpayer patience is tested, and governments feel obliged to deliver back some or all the creep in the form of tax cuts. That inspired the previous government’s Stage 3 tax cuts, which have found their way, following much modification, into the latest budget.

This, together with Treasury’s forecast on iron ore prices, are the main reasons why there is less of a windfall for the treasurer to bank in 2024-25. He is faced with new spending programs to deal with cost of living, energy transition and housing pressures.

On top of that, the budget reveals traditional Labor priorities in terms of spending on health, infrastructure and education, and some bipartisan ones like defence. It is little wonder the deficit has grown to $28 billion in the budget year, $42.6 billion in 2025-26.

The story laid bare

The story is laid bare by the wonderful reconciliation table in Budget Statement 3.

This table sets out what changes to the budget numbers come from government policy decisions, and what arises from factors outside the government’s control (for example, the outcomes of wage cases, changes in numbers of participants in the NDIS, or natural disasters).

In 2023-24 the factors outside government control added to the budget bottom line by far more than government spending decisions reduced it. In the budget year, 2024-25, this no longer happens.

The net impact of factors beyond the government’s control is only $51 million, hardly more than a rounding error in the budget totals. Government policy decisions reduce the budget balance – that is, they amount to net spending– by $9.5 billion. It is a similar pattern in each of the forward years. That is why we have deficits in those years.

Nevertheless, they are only modest deficits, 1% or less of Australia’s economic output (GDP) in all years but 2025-26 (still only 1.5% of GDP).

If, as the government predicts, inflation drops below 3% in each of the budget and forward years, there is little in the fiscal policy settings to prompt the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates. The far more important drivers of inflation are overseas and domestic business conditions.

Inherently a modest deficit like this is sustainable. If all the forecasts pan out, the government is on track to gradually reduce debt over time. This is important for intergenerational equity, not burdening future generations with the national credit card bill.

In fact, there is potential for unexpected surpluses in future years if the iron ore price defies Treasury predictions and remain high. For years now, Treasury has been predicting iron ore prices will return to trend levels. Eventually they must be right. In any one year though, it’s hard to pick.

What drives this is not Australian domestic demand but China’s.

That is very hard to predict. It does appear China’s economy has been slowing in recent years, due to changes in domestic priorities.

This could drive down Chinese demand for Australian iron ore and thus prices. But again, it might not. Forecasting China is notoriously difficult. Still, mostly our surprises on this front have been positive – and that might happen again.

Stephen Bartos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Chalmers is bitten by the giveaway bug in a budget that contains good news for almost everyone – https://theconversation.com/chalmers-is-bitten-by-the-giveaway-bug-in-a-budget-that-contains-good-news-for-almost-everyone-229273

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Greste, Professor of Journalism and Communications, Macquarie University

Governments and their agencies wield awesome power. At times, it is quite literally the power over life and death. That is why in any functioning democracy, we have robust checks and balances designed to make sure power is exercised responsibly and with restraint.

So, what message does a sentence of more than five years in prison for someone who exposed credible allegations of war crimes by Australian soldiers send?

On Tuesday, ACT Supreme Court Justice David Mossop despatched the former military lawyer David McBride to prison for five years and eight months, for passing classified military documents to journalists. Those documents formed the basis of the ABC’s explosive “Afghan Files” investigation, revealing allegations that Australian soldiers were involved in the unlawful executions of unarmed civilians.

It is hard to think of any whistleblowing more important.

Read more:
David McBride is facing jailtime for helping reveal alleged war crimes. Will it end whistleblowing in Australia?

McBride’s case forced us to confront the way our own troops had been conducting the war in Afghanistan, as well as the government’s ongoing obsession with secrecy over the public interest.

McBride had been concerned about what he saw as systemic failures of the SAS commanders, and their inconsistency in dealing with the deaths of “non-combatants” in Afghanistan. In an affidavit, he said he saw the way frontline troops were being

improperly prosecuted […] to cover up [leadership] inaction, and the failure to hold reprehensible conduct to account.

He initially complained internally, but when nothing happened he decided to go public. In 2014 and 2015, McBride collected 235 military documents and gave them to the ABC. The documents included 207 classified as “secret” and others marked as cabinet papers.

It is hard to deny the truth of what McBride exposed. The Brereton Inquiry later found what a parliamentary briefing described as “credible information” of 23 incidents in which non-combatants were unlawfully killed “by or at the direction of Australian Special Forces”. The report said these “may constitute the war crime of murder”.

Brereton went on to recommended prosecutions of the soldiers who were allegedly responsible. Yet, the first person to face trial and be sent to prison in the whole debacle is not any of those who might have been responsible for alleged killings, but the man who exposed “misconduct” in the Australian Defence Force.

Much has been made of McBride’s reasons for going to the media, but this focus on motives is a form of misdirection. Whistleblowers take action for a host of reasons – some of them less honourable than others. But ultimately, what matters is the truth of what they expose, rather than why.

That is why we recognise media freedom as an essential part of a healthy democracy, including the right – indeed the responsibility – of journalists to protect confidential sources. Unless sources who see wrongdoing can confidently expose it without fear of being exposed and prosecuted, the system of accountability falls apart and gross abuses of power remain hidden.

It is also why the formal name for Australia’s whistleblower protection law is the “Public Interest Disclosure Act”.

This law is designed to do what it says on the tin: protect disclosures made in the public interest, including those made through the media. It recognises that sometimes, even when the law imposes certain obligations of secrecy on public servants, there may be an overriding interest in exposing wrongdoing for the sake of our democracy.

As a highly trained and experienced military lawyer, McBride knew it was technically illegal to give classified documents to the media. The law is very clear about that, and for good reason. Nobody should be able to publish government secrets without a very powerful justification.

But nor should the fact that a bureaucrat has put a “secret” stamp on a document be an excuse for covering up serious crimes and misdemeanours.

In McBride’s case, the judge accepted the first premise, but rejected the second.

This is why my organisation, the Alliance for Journalists’ Freedom, is advocating for a Media Freedom Act. The act would oblige the courts to weigh up those competing public interests – the need for secrecy in certain circumstances against the sometimes more compelling need to publish and expose wrongdoing – rather than assume secrecy as a given.

It is hard to overstate the impact this case is likely to have on anybody with evidence of government misdeeds. Do they stay quiet and live with the guilt of being complicit, or do they speak up like McBride and others, and risk public humiliation, financial ruin and possibly even prison?

Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus has committed to reforming the whistleblower protection regime, and before the last election, promised to set up an independent Whistleblower Protection Authority. Those commitments are laudable, but they ring hollow while McBride sits in prison and another prominent whistleblower, Richard Boyle from the Australian Taxation Office, faces trial later this year.

It is hard to see the former military lawyer being locked in a cell, and say Australia is either safer, or better because of it.

Peter Greste is professor of journalism at Macquarie University, and the executive director of the advocacy group, the Alliance for Journalists’ Freedom.

– ref. David McBride goes to prison – and Australian democracy takes a hit – https://theconversation.com/david-mcbride-goes-to-prison-and-australian-democracy-takes-a-hit-230007

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University

Ahead of today’s federal budget, health minister Mark Butler last week announced an investment of A$49.1 million to help women with endometriosis and complex gynaecological conditions such as chronic pelvic pain and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

From July 1 2025 two new items will be added to the Medicare Benefits Schedule providing extended consultation times and higher rebates for specialist gynaecological care.

The Medicare changes will subsidise $168.60 for a minimum of 45 minutes during a longer initial gynaecologist consultation, compared to the standard rate of $95.60. For follow-up consultations, Medicare will cover $84.35 for a minimum of 45 minutes, compared to the standard rate of $48.05.

Currently, there’s no specified time for these initial or subsequent consultations.

But while reductions to out-of-pocket medical expenses and extended specialist consultation times are welcome news, they’re only a first step in closing the gender pain gap.

Chronic pain affects more women

Globally, research has shown chronic pain (generally defined as pain that persists for more than three months) disproportionately affects women. Multiple biological and psychosocial processes likely contribute to this disparity, often called the gender pain gap.

For example, chronic pain is frequently associated with conditions influenced by hormones, among other factors, such as endometriosis and adenomyosis. Chronic pelvic pain in women, regardless of the cause, can be debilitating and negatively affect every facet of life from social activities, to work and finances, to mental health and relationships.

The gender pain gap is both rooted in and compounded by gender bias in medical research, treatment and social norms.

The science that informs medicine – including the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of disease – has traditionally focused on men, thereby failing to consider the crucial impact of sex (biological) and gender (social) factors.

When medical research adopts a “male as default” approach, this limits our understanding of pain conditions that predominantly affect women or how certain conditions affect men and women differently. It also means intersex, trans and gender-diverse people are commonly excluded from medical research and health care.

Minimisation or dismissal of pain along with the normalisation of menstrual pain as just “part of being a woman” contribute to significant delays and misdiagnosis of women’s gynaecological and other health issues. Feeling dismissed, along with perceptions of stigma, can make women less likely to seek help in the future.

Inadequate medical care

Unfortunately, even when women with endometriosis do seek care, many aren’t satisfied. This is understandable when medical advice includes being told to become pregnant to treat their endometriosis, despite no evidence pregnancy reduces symptoms. Pregnancy should be an autonomous choice, not a treatment option.

It’s unsurprising people look for information from other, often uncredentialed, sources. While online platforms including patient-led groups have provided women with new avenues of support, these forums should complement, rather than replace, information from a doctor.

Longer Medicare-subsidised appointments are an important acknowledgement of women and their individual health needs. At present, many women feel their consultations with a gynaecologist are rushed. These conversations, which often include coming to terms with a diagnosis and management plan, take time.

A path toward less pain

While extended consultation time and reduced out-of-pocket costs are a step in the right direction, they are only one part of a complex pain puzzle.

If women are not listened to, their symptoms not recognised, and effective treatment options not adequately discussed and provided, longer genealogical consultations may not help patients. So what else do we need to do?

1. Physician knowledge

Doctors’ knowledge of women’s pain requires development through both practitioner education and guidelines. This knowledge should also include dedicated efforts toward understanding the neuroscience of pain.

Diagnostic processes should be tailored to consider gender-specific symptoms and responses to pain.

2. Research and collaboration

Medical decisions should be based on the best and most inclusive evidence. Understanding the complexities of pain in women is essential for managing their pain. Collaboration between health-care experts from different disciplines can facilitate comprehensive and holistic pain research and management strategies.

3. Further care and service improvements

Women’s health requires multidisciplinary treatment and care which extends beyond their GP or specialist. For example, conditions like endometriosis often see people presenting to emergency departments in acute pain, so practitioners in these settings need to have the right knowledge and be able to provide support.

Meanwhile, pelvic ultrasounds, especially the kind that have the potential to visualise endometriosis, take longer to perform and require a specialist sonographer. Current rebates do not reflect the time and expertise needed for these imaging procedures.

4. Adjusting the parameters of ‘women’s pain’

Conditions like PCOS and endometriosis don’t just affect women – they also impact people who are gender-diverse. Improving how people in this group are treated is just as salient as addressing how we treat women.

Similarly, the gynaecological health-care needs of culturally and linguistically diverse and Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander women may be even less likely to be met than those of women in the general population.

Challenging gender norms

Research suggests one of the keys to reducing the gender pain gap is challenging deeply embedded gendered norms in clinical practice and research.

We are hearing women’s suffering. Let’s make sure we are also listening and responding in ways that close the gender pain gap.

Marilla Druitt is a gynaecologist / obstetrician who researches mind body treatments for pain and endometriosis with Deakin University. She is the current president of Pelvic Pain Victoria, is involved in the Victorian state government redesign of gynaecology outpatient clinics in the public system, and is on the Victorian Women’s Pain Inquiry. Marilla is also a RANZCOG councillor, helped write the national Endometriosis Guideline, and was involved in discussions leading to the new MBS item numbers for longer specialist appointments mentioned in this article.

Mike Armour receives funding from the Medical Research Futures Fund (MRFF), the Victorian Government, and philanthropic donors for research on endometriosis and chronic pelvic pain. He is on the clinical advisory committee for Endometriosis Australia and part of the expert working group that develops the RANZCOG endometriosis guidelines.

Hannah Adler and Michelle O’Shea do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Longer appointments are just the start of tackling the gender pain gap. Here are 4 more things we can do – https://theconversation.com/longer-appointments-are-just-the-start-of-tackling-the-gender-pain-gap-here-are-4-more-things-we-can-do-229802

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Chalmers, Senior Lecturer in Human Movement, University of South Australia

The tragic death of Manly rugby league player Keith Titmuss in 2020 due to exertional heat stroke is a reminder of the life-threatening nature of the condition.

Titmuss died after a pre-season training session which was “more likely than not inappropriate”, according to the magistrate who oversaw a recent inquest.

Deputy NSW coroner Derek Lee made several recommendations in reviewing Titmuss’ death in the hope of reducing the chance of it happening again.

So, what is exertional heat stroke, and what should athletes and coaches know about it?

What is exertional heat stroke?

Exertional heat stroke is the most severe form of a spectrum of conditions classified as exertional heat illness.

During sport and exercise, the body is challenged to maintain an ideal core temperature of about 36-38°C.

This is because exercise produces a massive amount of internal heat, which needs to be released from the body to avoid overheating. Hot and humid conditions stress the ability of an person to release this internal heat, as well as potentially adding to the heat load.

If someone’s body is unable to control the rise in core temperature during physical activity, it may ultimately display central nervous system dysfunction. Signs of this include loss of muscle control in the arms and legs, combativeness, seizures, or loss of consciousness.

A highly elevated core temperature (typically, but not always, above 40°C) and multi-organ damage and failure are also characteristics of exertional heat stroke.

In one study, 27% of people suffering severe exertional heat illness died. But even those who survive often face long-term negative health consequences, such as an increased risk of cardiovascular disease later in life.

How often does exertional heat stroke occur?

Less severe forms of exertional heat illness (termed as heat exhaustion and heat injury) are more common during sport and exercise than exertional heat stroke. However, the life-threatening nature of the condition means precautions must be considered, especially for summer sports.

The condition strikes “weekend warriors” through to elite athletes and military personnel. A recent paper published in the Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport reported there were 38 deaths in Australia from exertional heat stroke from sport and exercise between 2001 to 2018.

However, exertional heat illness cases are thought to be broadly underreported.

In an effort to reduce the risk of future cases of exertional heat stroke in rugby league, Coroner Lee made recommendations following the inquest into the death of Titmuss.

1) Mandatory 14-day heat acclimatisation training

The human body can adapt quickly (in one to two weeks) to repeated gradual exposure to hot and humid environments, which ultimately reduces the risk of heat illness.

Research shows that pre-season heat acclimatisation protocols reduce the risk of heat illness in team sport athletes.

2) Consider screening and classifying players for exertional heat stroke risk

The United States National Athletic Trainer’s Association recommends players be screened for heat illness when competing in hot and humid conditions.

This process seems intuitive, but we lack a standardised and validated questionnaire.

Other important risk factors include hydration status, prior history of heat illness and/or recent viral illness or infection, body composition (high body fat percentage), and age (older people).

3) Identify cooling strategies that are relevant and effective

Cooling interventions that serve both as a prevention (during play) and treatment (for a victim) should be considered in hot and humid conditions.

In terms of cooling interventions, the evidence suggests cold water immersion, cold water or ice ingestion, cooling garments (such as ice vests or ice towels), portable fans (with or without additional wetting of the skin), or additional breaks in play can help.

The type of sport will influence the decision about which cooling intervention/s are possible.

Other considerations include the level of resourcing (amount of finances and support staff), type of sport (the number of athletes who need an intervention will differ between team vs individual sports) and game demands (continuous exercise vs sports that have regular breaks).

Is there anything else that athletes and coaches can consider?

Many elite sport organisations in Australia and abroad are working with researchers to develop modernised heat policies that look to reduce the risk of heat illness for elite competition.

An example is the revamped Australian Open tennis heat policy.

At the community level, coaches and athletes can consult Sports Medicine Australia’s online tool. This provides an estimation of risk according to the type of sport and current geographical location.

Sporting and educational organisations should also consider better education for administrators, staff, and athletes to reduce the risk of exertional heat stroke in players.

Samuel Chalmers is a Senior Lecturer at the University of South Australia and receives funding from Rowing NSW, Swimming Australia, Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC).

Orlando Laitano is an Assistant Professor at the University of Florida and receives funding from the United States (US) National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the US Department of Defense (DoD). He is a consultant for the Gatorade Sports Science Institute and currently serves as an Associate Editor for the Journal of Applied Physiology.

– ref. An NRL player died at training due to exertional heat stroke. What is it and what should coaches and athletes know? – https://theconversation.com/an-nrl-player-died-at-training-due-to-exertional-heat-stroke-what-is-it-and-what-should-coaches-and-athletes-know-229382

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Broomhall, Director, Gender and Women’s History Research Centre, Australian Catholic University

Wartime has often presented opportunities for women to step into leadership roles denied them in peacetime. The Italian Wars, a series of military conflicts fought mainly in Italy between 1494 and 1559 by Europe’s dominant political powers, were no exception.

By the end of the wars, many parts of Italy had fallen under Hapsburg rule, joining an empire that stretched across much of the European continent and even to the Americas, shaping Europe’s power hierarchies for centuries to come.

Our new research has revealed the significant roles elite women played in prosecuting war and negotiating peace during this pivotal time in European history. We looked particularly at Isabella d’Este (1474–1539), marchioness of Mantua, and her sister-in-law, Lucrezia Borgia (1480–1519), duchess of neighbouring Ferrara.

Men deputised women to free themselves up to fight. They knew these women were well educated and would handle affairs competently. The women we examined made important administrative, diplomatic and financial contributions to retain power in small Italian states often perilously close to the front line.

Against all odds, both Mantua and Ferrara survived the wars, remaining in the control of the Gonzaga and Este families, respectively. This was in no small part because of the work of the prominent women within these ruling dynasties.

Lucrezia Borgia

Following her marriage in 1502 to Alfonso I d’Este, heir to the duchy of Ferrara, Lucrezia Borgia made important economic and political contributions to the war effort.

Ferrara was threatened first by its neighbour, the Republic of Venice, intent on expanding its land borders, and later by Pope Julius II, who wished to reclaim Ferrara as territory for the Papal States.

Lucrezia invested her dowry in land reclamation and food production. This was crucial to her husband’s capacity to pay for innovative new cannons, which proved lethal in a surprise attack in 1509, destroying the invading navy of the powerful Venetian republic.

In 1512, Alfonso was lured to Rome by the Pope to negotiate a peace settlement, only to find himself arrested and imprisoned. This left the duchess to oversee military preparations. With the Pope’s army occupying nearby towns, Lucrezia quickly organised the fortification of bastions on Ferrara’s borders.

She also outwitted the Pope’s spies by using an ingenious secret code. During Alfonso’s imprisonment, Lucrezia secretly updated him about the war. Unlike the usual system of encryption, Lucrezia’s worked by providing seemingly innocuous family news about their son, the state of her health and that of other family members. These were in fact strategic messages.

Alfonso finally escaped the Pope’s clutches with the help of Rome-based allies, and returned to Ferrara and the defence of the city-state he ruled.

Isabelle d’Este

Isabella d’Este, who became marchioness of Mantua when she married Francesco Gonzaga in 1490, was likewise a crucial actor.

She was 20 when Charles VIII of France invaded the Italian peninsula in 1494, and assumed increasingly weighty political responsibilities while her husband devoted himself to fighting.

Her authority was initially fragile. The citizens of Mantua were sceptical of the capacity of such a young woman. So Isabella commissioned works of art that associated her with virtues such as prudence, magnificence and fortitude.

This self-fashioning is on display in a medallion by Gian Cristoforo Romano. The obverse portrait evokes ancient Roman empresses and an illustrious dynastic pedigree. The reverse features Sagittarius flying above a winged female victory, an allusion to the marchioness’s fitness to exercise authority.

In 1512, the French military campaign to take territory in northern Italy collapsed. The victorious Spanish-led league – a coalition of powers including the papacy – convened a congress in Mantua to divide the spoils of war.

Pope Julius II – an ally of the Spanish Holy Roman Emperor, and determined to reclaim the duchy of Ferrara – demanded the imperial army oust Ferrara’s Este rulers as soon as the congress concluded.

As a woman, Isabella could not hold an official role at the congress. However, like Lucrezia Borgia, she worked diplomatically behind the scenes to save the Este regime of her brothers.

Isabella focused her diplomacy on the imperial general and Spanish viceroy of Naples, Ramón de Cardona. Personally guiding Cardona and his entourage around her prized collection of antiquities and paintings by leading contemporary artists, she convinced her foreign visitors to take her seriously as a woman of diplomatic consequence and eventually persuaded Cardona to delay the attack on Ferrara.

The reprieve Isabella achieved proved lasting. Julius II died in early 1513 and his successor, Pope Leo X, did not pursue the restoration of papal rule in Ferrara. The threat to Este rule had dissipated.

New visions of women and warfare

The Italian Wars provided women with opportunities to showcase their administrative competence and diplomatic talents, manipulate their own public image and associate themselves with attributes that would bolster their legitimacy in similar ways to male leaders.

Many placed emphasis on advancing themselves as women of influence, authority or power, showing (for better or worse) they, too, could be protagonists of war as well as peacemakers.

Looking through the lens of gender and at the activities of women permits a reconsideration of where and how early modern war was conducted. It shows the conflicts played out not just on the battlefield and during official diplomatic encounters, but also through cultural forms of politics and the dynastic service of female as well as male actors.

Susan Broomhall receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Carolyn James receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Influence, authority and power: how elite women played a crucial role in the Italian Wars of the 16th century – https://theconversation.com/influence-authority-and-power-how-elite-women-played-a-crucial-role-in-the-italian-wars-of-the-16th-century-223184

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olli Hellmann, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Waikato

The stories Aotearoa New Zealand tells itself about the history of Te Tiriti o Waitangi/the Treaty of Waitangi have evolved considerably over time. For many decades, starting with the 1940 centennial, state-sponsored commemorations of the signing, the event was romanticised as a coming together of two peoples.

Increasingly, these collective memories were challenged – primarily by Māori activism, but also by the work of revisionist historians. As a result, today’s official narratives acknowledge the Treaty was broken repeatedly, often violently, during European colonisation. And they also recognise the Crown’s obligation to remedy past breaches.

Some conservative politicians have seen this shift in collective remembering as an opportunity for political point scoring. They denounce recent reinterpretations of the Treaty as sowing social division and weakening national unity.

For example, in his 2004 Orewa speech, then National leader Don Brash reviled the Treaty settlements process for creating “a racially divided state”. In 2017, National Prime Minister Bill English claimed many New Zealanders “cringe” at Māori protests on Waitangi Day.

Lately, ACT party leader David Seymour has attacked current interpretations of the Treaty as being “divisive”. His Treaty Principles Bill aims to rewrite those principles, against loud opposition from Māori.

But my new research, published recently in the journal Political Science, does not support claims the Treaty divides New Zealanders. In fact, the survey suggests quite the opposite: the Treaty provides a powerful symbol that promotes mutual understanding and reconciliation.

Our most important historical event

The survey involved a broadly representative sample of over 1,000 people. The key question asked respondents to spontaneously name the most important event in the history of Aotearoa New Zealand. This may seem simple, but it is an effective way to tap into readily accessible – and therefore meaningful – memories.

The Treaty of Waitangi was the most frequent response, among both Pākehā/European New Zealanders (38%) and Māori (59%).

Younger respondents were significantly more likely to recall the signing of the Treaty than older generations. This possibly reflects efforts since the late 1990s to educate citizens on the Treaty and the role of the Waitangi Tribunal in redressing historical injustices.

In fact, among those respondents born between 2000 and 2006, more than 70% identified the Treaty as the most important event in national history.

Remembering the past matters

The survey data make it possible to investigate how collective memories of the historical past shape what individuals think about politics and society in the present.

In particular, we can compare two groups of respondents: those who recalled the Treaty of Waitangi as most important, and those who attached the greatest importance to Eurocentric historical events (such as the arrival of Captain Cook and European settlers, World War I, and women’s suffrage).

Participants were also prompted to rate their “warmth” towards other social groups. In addition, the survey included a range of questions about national identity and redress of historical wrongs against Māori.

Analysis of the responses revealed four important findings.

1. There was no evidence Māori who rated the Treaty as the most important historical event felt markedly “cool” towards European New Zealanders. Rather, it was Pākehā respondents calling to mind Eurocentric historical events who exhibited little warmth for Māori.

2. There was no evidence that singling out the Treaty as the most important event undermined individuals’ sense of national belonging – among either Pākehā or Māori.

3. Pākehā respondents who named the Treaty as the most important event were likely to support a broader definition of what it means to be a New Zealander. Specifically, they understood national identity to be inclusive of Māori culture and values, rather than insisting on a narrow, monocultural understanding.

4. Pākehā who identified the Treaty as the most important historical event showed a significant tendency to support redress for historical injustices to Māori.

The symbolic power of the Treaty

When nations craft narratives about their historical origins – be it revolutions, wars or the making of constitutions – they tend to frame these stories positively.

Aotearoa New Zealand is different. The Treaty of Waitangi – often considered the nation’s founding document – includes in its more recent narratives an admission of guilt and an obligation to remedy past wrongs.

Some politicians have taken aim at these narratives. They claim dwelling too much on historical breaches of the Treaty – for example, through Waitangi Tribunal proceedings or Māori protest – strains the social fabric.

However, the recently published survey findings indicate such concerns are misplaced. Rather, narratives that foreground Treaty breaches help forge a bicultural sense of belonging and commitment to work through those breaches.

The survey also finds the Treaty holds especially strong symbolic power among young people. This suggests electoral strategies that seek to undo decades of revisionist storytelling about the Treaty will likely lead to diminishing returns in the future.

Olli Hellmann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Some say the Treaty of Waitangi divides NZ – a new survey suggests the opposite is true – https://theconversation.com/some-say-the-treaty-of-waitangi-divides-nz-a-new-survey-suggests-the-opposite-is-true-229469

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brett Carter, Associate Professor, RMIT University

On Saturday evening before Mother’s Day, Australians witnessed a rare celestial spectacle: a breathtaking display of aurora australis, also known as the southern lights.

Social media was flooded with photos of the vivid pinks, greens and blues lighting up the skies from local beaches and backyards all over the country.

Auroras are normally visible near Earth’s north and south poles. In Australia, they are typically only seen in Tasmania. However, due to rare and special space weather conditions, this time people could see them as far north as Queensland.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s Australian Space Weather Services first issued a potential extreme (G5, most severe level) geomagnetic storm warning on Saturday morning.

Lucky Australians who received this warning, and those who happened to look outside that evening, were rewarded with an amazing spectacle. However, by sunset on Sunday, the chance of aurora had subsided, leaving many hopeful viewers in the dark.

What happened? Why are auroras so hard to predict, and how reliable are aurora forecasts? To answer this, we need to know a bit more about space weather.

What is space weather?

Auroras on Earth are related to the Sun’s magnetic field. The Sun’s activity increases and decreases over an 11-year period called the solar cycle. We are currently approaching the solar cycle maximum, meaning there’s a higher number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface.

These sunspot regions have intense magnetic fields, which can lead to huge explosions of electromagnetic radiation called “solar flares”, and eruptions of material into space, called “coronal mass ejections”.

When this material is directed towards Earth, it collides with Earth’s protective magnetic field, kicking off a series of complex interactions between the magnetic field and the plasma in the ionosphere, part of Earth’s upper atmosphere.

The charged particles resulting from these interactions then interact with the upper atmosphere, causing beautiful and dynamic auroras. The conditions in space produced by this chain of events are what we call “space weather”.

Everyday space weather generally poses no threat, but these events – known as geomagnetic storms – can impact power supply, satellites, communications and GPS, potentially leaving lasting damage.

Saturday’s dazzling display was produced by the most intense geomagnetic storm since November 2003. Fortunately, this time there have been no reports of major disruptions to power grids, but SpaceX’s Starlink constellation was reportedly impacted.

Why are geomagnetic storms hard to predict?

Last weekend’s geomagnetic storm was caused by a large and complex region of sunspots that launched a series of solar flares and a train of coronal mass ejections.

Space weather prediction is challenging, and the physics is complex. Even when we see an eruption on the Sun, it’s not clear if or when it will hit Earth, or how strong the effects might be.

Predicted arrival times can be off by up to 12 hours, and it is only when the eruption arrives at monitoring spacecraft close to our planet that can we can gauge the strength of an impending geomagnetic storm.

As a result, aurora hunters really only have up to a few hours advanced notice to decide whether venturing outside is worthwhile or not.

Can we expect more auroras soon?

At the time of writing, the sunspot region responsible for the recent display is still spitting out X-class flares and eruptions, but it’s no longer facing Earth directly. It is possible this region will still be active when it faces Earth again, but this remains to be seen.

However, as we approach solar cycle maximum, other large complex sunspot regions are likely to form and, if the conditions are right, produce more spectacular aurora displays.

How to check for aurora forecasts?

Thousands of Australians lined the beaches looking towards the horizon on Sunday night hoping for a second show, only to be disappointed. Official space weather and aurora forecasts provide a wide range of possibilities that must be communicated with the appropriate nuance.

The most reliable sources of information about space weather and aurora are agencies such as Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology Space Weather Services or the United States NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

Not only do they provide aurora forecasts, but they also play a vital role in safeguarding infrastructure from the negative impacts of space weather.

Space weather research

Looking ahead, scientists in Australia and around the world are working hard to improve our understanding and prediction of space weather events.

By studying the Sun’s magnetic activity and developing advanced forecasting models of the complex processes that happen between the Sun and Earth, we can better predict and prepare for future space weather events.

A better understanding will help protect important technologies that we rely upon. It will also alert people to step outside and witness a phenomenon that not only lights up the sky, but ignites a profound sense of wonder.

Brett Carter receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Industry, Science and Resources. He is also currently serving as an Editor for the American Geophysical Union’s journal Space Weather.

Hannah Schunker receives funding from the Australian Government in an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship Award (project number FT220100330) ‘Closing the Solar Cycle’.

– ref. Why are auroras so hard to predict? And when can we expect more? – https://theconversation.com/why-are-auroras-so-hard-to-predict-and-when-can-we-expect-more-229909

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yasir Arafat, Senior Research Associate, Edith Cowan University

As electric vehicle (EV) demand accelerates, so does the need for lithium batteries. But these batteries contain valuable critical minerals, as well as toxic materials, so they should not be treated as common waste.

Unlike China and some European countries, Australia lacks a dedicated lithium battery recycling facility. Just 10% of Australia’s lithium battery waste was “recycled” in 2021. This means the batteries were collected and shredded locally before being sent overseas for recycling.

Shipping large volumes of spent batteries overseas is complex and risky. Lithium batteries have been known to start fires. A cargo ship laden with lithium batteries caught fire off the coast of Alaska in December 2023. The fire burned for days.

Similarly, a fire broke out on a cargo ship carrying luxury vehicles (including EVs) near Portugal’s Azores Islands in February 2022. The risk of fire is even greater for spent EV batteries because they are more likely to be damaged or unsafe.

Efforts to recycle batteries onshore have now been jeopardised by the decision – announced last week ahead of this week’s federal budget – to scrap plans for a waste export levy. The proposed A$4 per tonne levy on waste exports would have come into effect on July 1.

Scrapping the levy will pave the way for even more waste to be exported rather than recycled here. We believe there should be exceptions for spent lithium batteries – for several reasons. These include safety concerns around shipping and the loss of critical minerals.

By recycling onshore, we can retain these resources, build new industries and develop a circular economy. We should also prepare for the possibility that other countries will at some stage refuse to accept our waste. Then we will be forced to stockpile these batteries, at great risk.

Spent EV batteries are accumulating rapidly

EV sales are growing exponentially. Globally, one in five new cars are electric. More than half of all cars sold by 2040 will likely be EVs.

Beneath each sleek exterior is a hefty lithium battery with an average lifespan of just five to eight years.

According to the International Energy Agency, EVs generated about 500,000 tonnes of battery waste in 2019 alone. This waste is forecast to reach 8 million tonnes by 2040.

A 2016 report for the federal government forecasts at least 20% annual growth in Australian lithium battery waste to 136,000 tonnes a year by 2036.

CSIRO explored the potential for lithium battery recycling and reuse in 2021. But little has happened since.

Meanwhile, the mountain of waste continues to grow. It is estimated 360,000 tonnes of EV batteries will be spent by 2040 and 1.6 million tonnes by 2050.

Battery recycling is a must, not a choice

Disposal of lithium batteries can cause fires and explosions in waste management facilities and landfills. If a battery is punctured, or short-circuits, the residual electricity can spark fires or explode. The batteries can also leak metals such as cobalt, nickel or manganese, threatening ecosystems and human health.

The battery fluid is harmful to humans as it is linked to various health effects including heart attacks, asthma, cancer, eye damage, reproductive toxicity, skin sensitisation, damage to bones and kidneys and other symptoms.

Lithium battery wastes are overground mines

Rather than being seen as a liability, the growing pile of spent lithium batteries could represent an economic opportunity for Australia. The battery pack in a BMW i3 electric vehicle, for example, contains 6kg of lithium, 35kg of graphite, 2kg of cobalt, 12kg of nickel and 12kg of manganese. These valuable resources will be wasted if the batteries are exported or sent to landfill.

If the raw materials were instead recovered and processed onshore, this could translate into a burgeoning industry worth A$3.1 billion, using Australia’s existing expertise in mining and resource recovery.

It’s time to get serious about battery recycling

The federal government missed an opportunity to include infrastructure for battery recycling in its A$250 million Recycling Modernisation Fund. These funds were limited to waste glass, plastic, tyres, paper and cardboard.

This delays the establishment of onshore capacity for battery recycling and makes us reliant on exporting waste batteries overseas.

To boost recycling, we must develop clear regulations and guidelines aligned with global standards, including stringent restrictions on landfill.

In addition, incentives such as tax credits and rebates for battery recycling programs will encourage investment in this area and drive progress. Such measures in Europe make the legislated target for lithium recovery from waste batteries (63% by 2027) possible, cutting reliance on imports of raw materials.

We urgently need to develop a comprehensive waste management strategy dedicated to the responsible collection and recycling of waste batteries. Such a strategy is crucial to safeguard both the environment and communities from the potential hazards associated with improper disposal, promoting resource conservation and creating a circular economy for these critical energy storage devices.

Daryoush Habibi receives research funding from iMove CRC for industry projects related to the repurposing and recycling retired electric vehicle batteries. However, this funding does not include any salary component for him.

Yasir Arafat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Scrapping the waste export levy threatens Australia’s emerging lithium battery recycling industry – https://theconversation.com/scrapping-the-waste-export-levy-threatens-australias-emerging-lithium-battery-recycling-industry-229807

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wellett Potter, Lecturer in Law, University of New England

Artificial intelligence (AI) text and image generation tools have now been around for a while, but in recent weeks, apps for making AI-generated music have reached consumers as well.

Just like other generative AI tools, the two products – Suno and Udio (and others likely to come) – work by turning a user’s prompt into output. For example, prompting for “a rock punk song about my dog eating my homework” on Suno will produce an audio file (see below) that combines instruments and vocals. The output can be downloaded as an MP3 file.

The underlying AI draws on unknown data sets to generate the music. Users have the option of prompting the AI for lyrics or writing their own lyrics, although some apps advise the AI works best when generating both.

But who, if anyone, owns the resulting sounds? For anyone using these apps, this is an important question to consider. And the answer is not straightforward.

What do the app terms say?

Suno has a free version and a paid service. For those who use the free version, Suno retains ownership of the generated music. However, users may use the sound recording for lawful, non-commercial purposes, as long as they provide attribution credit to Suno.

Paying Suno subscribers are permitted to own the sound recording, as long as they comply with the terms of service.

Udio doesn’t claim any ownership of the content its users generate, and advises users are free to do whatever they want with it, “as long as the content does not contain copyrighted material that [they] do not own or have explicit permission to use”.

How does Australian copyright law apply?

Suno is based in the United States. However, its terms of service state that users are responsible for complying with the laws of their specific jurisdiction.

For Australian users, despite Suno granting ownership to paid subscribers, the application of Australian copyright law isn’t clear cut. Can an AI-generated sound recording be “owned” in the eyes of the law? For this to happen, copyright must be found and a human author must be established. Would a user be considered an “author” or would the sound recording be classified as authorless for the purposes of copyright?

Similarly to how this would apply to ChatGPT content, Australian case law dictates that each work must originate through a human author’s “creative spark” and “independent intellectual effort”.

This is where the issue becomes contentious. A court would likely scrutinise precisely how the sound recording was generated. If the user’s prompt demonstrated sufficient “creative spark” and “independent intellectual effort”, then authorship might be found.

If, however, the prompt was found to be too far removed from the AI’s reduction of the sound recording to a tangible form, then authorship could fail. If authorless, then there is no copyright and the sound recording cannot be owned by a user in Australia.

Does the training data infringe copyright?

The answer is currently unclear. Around the world, there are many ongoing lawsuits evaluating whether other generative AI technology (such as ChatGPT) has infringed upon copyright through the data sets used for training.

The same question is pertinent to generative AI music apps. This is a difficult question to answer because of the secrecy surrounding the data sets used to train these apps. Greater transparency is needed – one day, licensing structures might be established.

Even if there has been a copyright infringement, an exception to copyright called fair dealing might be applicable in Australia. This allows the reproduction of copyright-protected material for particular uses, without permission from or payment to the owner. One such use is for research or study.

In the US, an exception called fair use might apply.

What about imitating a known artist?

Of concern to those in the music industry is the use of generative AI to create new songs that mimic famous singers. For example, other AI technology (not Suno or Udio) can now make Johnny Cash sing Taylor Swift’s Blank Space.

Last year, writers in Hollywood went on strike in part to demand guardrails on how generative AI can be used in their profession. There is now a similar concern about a threat to livelihoods in the music industry, due to the unsolicited use of vocal profiles through AI technology.

In the US, a right of publicity exists. This applies to any individual, but is mainly used by celebrities. It gives them the right to sue for misappropriation for the commercial use of their identity or performance.

So, if someone used an AI-generated voice profile of a US singer commercially and without permission in a song, the singer could sue for misappropriation of their voice and likeness.

However, in Australia, there is no such right of publicity. Due to the proliferation of voices and other materials that can be harvested from the internet, this potentially leaves Australians vulnerable to exploitation through new types of AI.

AI voice scams are also escalating. This is where scammers use AI to impersonate the voice of a loved one in an attempt to extort money.

With the rapid development of this technology, it is timely to debate whether a similar right of publicity should be introduced in Australia. If so, it would help to safeguard the identity and performance rights of all Australians and also protect against potential AI voice crimes.

Wellett Potter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. AI can make up songs now, but who owns the copyright? The answer is complicated – https://theconversation.com/ai-can-make-up-songs-now-but-who-owns-the-copyright-the-answer-is-complicated-229714

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liam Byrne, Honorary Fellow, School of Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of Melbourne

For many reasons, the 2024 US presidential election will be like no other.

Republican nominee Donald Trump’s campaign is unprecedented. Never before has a former president who so openly threatens the existence of democracy in the United States been this close to retaking the oath of office.

At the same time, university campus protests over the war in Gaza are growing. Escalations in these protests and the responses from university administrations have led to scenes of militarised police forcefully arresting protesters.

Almost universally, commentators are reaching for the same touchstone as they seek to understand what is happening in the US today: the protests and civil discord that framed the 1968 election.

But how apt are these comparisons, and do they help us understand what is at stake in the election of 2024?

Read more:
Could the Israel-Gaza war hurt Joe Biden’s chances of re-election? History might provide a guide

What happened in 1968?

The year 1968 was a tumultuous and decisive inflection point in the history of the US. The events of that year exposed the deep contradictions at the heart of American society – contradictions that have yet to be resolved.

As the year got underway, the US had proclaimed its moral leadership of the free world, while ruthlessly escalating its prosecution of the war on Vietnam. Democratic President Lyndon Johnson had assured the American public the US was in the ascendancy – a claim swiftly undermined by the Tet offensive in January.

Johnson’s legitimacy suffered due to disaffection on both the left and right, combined with his administration’s incoherent war objectives and ineffective strategy. Challenged by several candidates in his own party in the primaries, Johnson announced in late March he would not run again.

The gap between the promises of racial justice and reality of ongoing racism was also stark. Though the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Act of 1965 were significant in ending legal segregation in the south, civil rights activists argued persistent social and economic racial inequality (including in the north) meant segregation was still the reality for most Black Americans.

The most prominent advocate of this perspective, Martin Luther King, was gunned down on April 4 at the Lorraine Hotel in Tennessee. This act of racist hate sent shockwaves through Black America. Protests erupted, resulting in more than 40 deaths.

Another Civil Rights Act was passed, but for many – especially the burgeoning ranks of militant Black nationalists – King’s devastating assassination represented the entrenched violence of a state built on white supremacy.

After the shooting, former attorney-general and Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy famously called for calm. His bid for the presidency inspired many impassioned activists who threw themselves into campaigning. Kennedy had a unique ability to build a coalition incorporating student activists, white suburbanites, Black communities, migrant sharecroppers and sections of organised labour.

On June 5, Kennedy won the Democratic primary in California. Moments after his victory speech, he was shot and rushed to hospital. He died the next day.

Two months later, the Democratic Party held its national convention in Chicago, a city tightly controlled by the old-school conservative Democratic mayor, Richard J. Daley. Daley tried to clamp down on any dissent. Protesters of all stripes assembled in defiance.

Inside the convention centre, the unruly proceedings revealed deep divisions within the Democratic Party over the Vietnam War. Outside, the protesters’ vision of participatory direct democracy clashed violently with the forces of the city police, a symbol of institutional governance.

The Democratic nomination was won by Hubert Humphrey, Johnson’s vice president. Though once lauded for his liberalism, Humphrey had strongly associated himself with Johnson’s war policy. After Kennedy’s assassination, Humphrey’s most serious challenge came from the anti-war candidacy of Eugene McCarthy. But with strong support from within the Democratic establishment, Humphrey prevailed, to the disdain of many anti-war party activists.

The legacies of 1968

For Nixon, the Republican nominee, the scenes from the Democratic convention playing out on the nightly news were a boost. How could a party that could not govern itself govern the nation?

Nixon unleashed a cynical campaign of thinly veiled racism, positioning himself as the candidate of states’ rights and “law and order”.

As the year went on, the third-party candidacy of the avid segregationist and former Democrat George Wallace attracted significant support from white voters in the deep south as part of the racist backlash against civil rights, as well. Nixon similarly appealed to these voters as part of the Republicans’ emerging “southern strategy” to win white voters in the south who had previously been Democratic supporters.

The 1968 election was closer than many expected, but a combination of disenchantment with the Democrats, Wallace’s third-party candidacy and a general sense of malaise led to Nixon’s narrow victory.

Then came the the US bombing campaigns against Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. And in 1972, Watergate.

The upheaval of 1968 and the years that followed exposed fissures in American society and raised serious questions about how united the country actually was. It made clear there were different Americas – and these versions of the country were not reconciled to each other. The house was divided. These differences remain as stark as ever today.

What’s at stake in 2024?

The year 1968 continues to have such symbolic power because it marked the transformation from the hope and idealism of the 1960s to the cynicism and despondency of the 1970s.

The contradictions of that era were also never resolved. 1968 was a year of contest in which different visions of what America was – and what it could and should be – dramatically clashed. This social polarisation was expressed through regular political violence that fundamentally changed the nation.

Trump exposed these social fissures first as president, and now (again) as nominee. But 2024 is not a repeat of 1968 – it’s a continuation of the same issues that have torn at the country’s fabric for decades.

Read more:
Why ‘wokeness’ has become the latest battlefront for white conservatives in America

Trump’s presidential bids have revealed the deep state of division that persists in the US. His support is sustained by the political revanchism of those who actively seek to perpetuate America’s historic injustices and have mobilised behind his banner to retain their social power.

Their unwavering support for Trump, and willingness to continue to mobilise regardless of electoral outcomes, means that whatever the poll result is in November, the threat to American democracy that Trumpism poses will persist.

Until this fundamental reality is confronted and overcome, the country will continue to live in the shadows of 1968.

Emma Shortis is Senior Researcher in International and Security Affairs at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.

Liam Byrne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 1968 was an inflection point for the US. Is another one coming in 2024? – https://theconversation.com/1968-was-an-inflection-point-for-the-us-is-another-one-coming-in-2024-229386

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meru Sheel, Associate Professor and Epidemiologist, Infectious Diseases, Immunisation and Emergencies Group, Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney

We know vaccines have been a miracle for public health. Now, new research led by the World Health Organization has found vaccines have saved an estimated 154 million lives in the past 50 years from 14 different diseases. Most of these have been children under five, and around two-thirds children under one year old.

In 1974 the World Health Assembly launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization with the goal to vaccinate all children against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough), measles, polio, tuberculosis and smallpox by 1990. The program was subsequently expanded to include several other diseases.

The modelling, marking 50 years since this program was established, shows a child aged under ten has about a 40% greater chance of living until their next birthday, compared to if we didn’t have vaccines. And these positive effects can be seen well into adult life. A 50-year-old has a 16% greater chance of celebrating their next birthday thanks to vaccines.

What the study did

The researchers developed mathematical and statistical models which took in vaccine coverage data and population numbers from 194 countries for the years 1974–2024. Not all diseases were included (for example smallpox, which was eradicated in 1980, was left out).

The analysis includes vaccines for 14 diseases, with 11 of these included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization. For some countries, additional vaccines such as Japanese encephalitis, meningitis A and yellow fever were included, as these diseases contribute to major disease burden in certain settings.

The models were used to simulate how diseases would have spread from 1974 to now, as vaccines were introduced, for each country and age group, incorporating data on increasing vaccine coverage over time.

Children are the greatest beneficiaries of vaccines

Since 1974, the rates of deaths in children before their first birthday has more than halved. The researchers calculated almost 40% of this reduction is due to vaccines.

The effects have been greatest for children born in the 1980s because of the intensive efforts made globally to reduce the burden of diseases like measles, polio and whooping cough.

Some 60% of the 154 million lives saved would have been lives lost to measles. This is likely due to its ability to spread rapidly. One person with measles can spread the infection to 12–18 people.

The study also found some variation across different parts of the world. For example, vaccination programs have had a much greater impact on the probability of children living longer across low- and middle-income countries and settings with weaker health systems such as the eastern Mediterranean and African regions. These results highlight the important role vaccines play in promoting health equity.

Vaccine success is not assured

Low or declining vaccine coverage can lead to epidemics which can devastate communities and overwhelm health systems.

Notably, the COVID pandemic saw an overall decline in measles vaccine coverage, with 86% of children having received their first dose in 2019 to 83% in 2022. This is concerning because very high levels of vaccination coverage (more than 95%) are required to achieve herd immunity against measles.

In Australia, the coverage for childhood vaccines, including measles, mumps and rubella, has declined compared to before the pandemic.

This study is a reminder of why we need to continue to vaccinate – not just against measles, but against all diseases we have safe and effective vaccines for.

The results of this research don’t tell us the full story about the impact of vaccines. For example, the authors didn’t include data for some vaccines such as COVID and HPV (human papillomavirus). Also, like with all modelling studies, there are some uncertainties, as data was not available for all time periods and countries.

Nonetheless, the results show the success of global vaccination programs over time. If we want to continue to see lives saved, we need to keep investing in vaccination locally, regionally and globally.

Meru Sheel is a current member of the WHO immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC), and Co-Chair the IA2030 Pillar on Research and Innovation.

Alexandra Hogan receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), and has previously received funding from the World Health Organization (WHO), Gavi, and PATH for vaccine-related modelling work. Alexandra Hogan is a current member of the WHO Immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC).

– ref. 154 million lives saved in 50 years: 5 charts on the global success of vaccines – https://theconversation.com/154-million-lives-saved-in-50-years-5-charts-on-the-global-success-of-vaccines-229707

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chrissy Severinsen, Associate Professor in Public Health, Massey University

Becoming a mother is a significant identity shift, and many new mums struggle. Up to 18% of New Zealand mothers experience depression and anxiety after giving birth.

The first thousand days, from conception to a child’s second birthday, are critical for a baby’s development. A mother’s mental health during this time can have a profound impact on the child’s lifelong wellbeing.

Well Child Tamariki Ora, a free postnatal service developed from New Zealand’s iconic Plunket health services but now overseen by the government, provides vital support at a vulnerable time.

However, our research shows these services may be missing critical opportunities to address maternal mental health.

Our Wāhi Kōrero study allows the anonymous sharing of health-related stories to help improve health outcomes. We collected 420 stories about families’ experiences with the Well Child service – and they reveal a pattern of unmet needs.

Barriers to seeking help

Many mothers feared being judged as inadequate or unfit if they admitted struggling. One mother explained:

I was scared that if I opened up about how I was feeling, that people would think I was incompetent or neglectful or a danger to my baby, so whenever my Well Child nurse visited, I would just say things were good […] I wish I could’ve told her how much I was struggling.

Others felt it was hard to articulate their distress:

I wish my Plunket nurse had asked if I was ok. I was not coping at all, having terrible anxiety attacks, crying all the time, very highly strung. But both my babies were big chubby happy babies so I just got showered with praise while inside, I was cringing, thinking how wrong she was. I just needed a chance to say how I was feeling, then maybe I would’ve got the help I needed when I needed it.

Mothers wanted to connect with the nurses but struggled to build a relationship. Talking about mental health is deeply personal and can be uncomfortable. Such conversations require trust and many mothers did not feel safe to share.

Instead, many felt appointments were too rushed, and impersonal checklists left little room for authentic connection. One mother explained she felt pressure to give the “correct” answers to the nurse’s questions.

Rather than inviting confidences, the questions felt like an interrogation:

Then came the checklist. It felt like a barrage of questions, rather than a conversation to develop a relationship. “Are you depressed?” while I’m cowering on the couch, quietly crying. I was too ashamed to admit it, and that was that. That visit and every subsequent visit left me feeling even less supported than I did beforehand.

Importance of listening and trust building

When nurses did take the time to listen, ask open-ended questions and go beyond the standard script, it made a world of difference. Mothers felt more comfortable sharing when they felt genuine care and interest.

But mothers were aware the main priority of the visits was checking their baby’s physical growth. One mother said:

I wish my nurse made me feel like I had someone I could talk to, not just about the weight and size of our growing pēpi but about me, māmā.

Many mothers spoke of suffering in silence. This points to a need for significant changes in how we approach postpartum care. We need to build a service that nurtures the whole family rather than just monitoring the baby’s growth and ticking boxes.

The postpartum period is a time of profound change and Māori, Pasifika and Asian mothers face higher risks of mental health problems.

A recent review of the Well Child service found Māori, Pacific peoples and whānau living in poverty are consistently underserved by the programme. This contributes to the unfair differences we see in Māori and Pacific maternal mental health.

Well Child services could focus on building trust and meaningful relationships to better support maternal mental health.

This means moving beyond narrow checklists and focusing on the mother as well as the baby. It means taking time for honest conversation, not just rote questioning. It means care from nurses equipped to discuss mental health sensitively.

New mothers’ needs are complex, but they deserve comprehensive, culturally responsive maternal mental health support.

The Well Child service has had a vital role in supporting mothers since its beginnings. This includes recognising that helping mothers is the route to better outcomes for children.

By listening to mothers’ voices and reorienting services, we can provide the care mothers urgently need. Their wellbeing is critical for them and the next generation.

The Wāhi Kōrero research project has received funding from the Massey University Research Fund, the Palmerston North Medical Research Foundation, and the Health Research Council.

Angelique Reweti and Mary Breheny do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Many new mums struggle, but NZ’s postnatal services often fail to address maternal mental health – new study – https://theconversation.com/many-new-mums-struggle-but-nzs-postnatal-services-often-fail-to-address-maternal-mental-health-new-study-227341

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anabela Malpique, Senior Lecturer, Edith Cowan University

Children today are growing up surrounded by technology. So it’s easy to assume they will be able to write effectively using a keyboard.

But our research suggests this is not necessarily true.

We need to actively teach students to be able to type as well as write using paper and pen or pencil.

Our research

Our research team has published two recent studies investigating children’s handwriting and typing.

In a study published last month we looked at Year 2 students and their handwriting and keyboard writing. This study involved 544 students from 17 primary schools in Perth, Western Australia.

We assessed how easily students wrote stories using paper and pencil compared to writing stories using a laptop. We found they produced longer and higher-quality handwritten texts. This was based on ten criteria, including ideas, vocabulary, spelling and punctuation.

These findings echoed our December 2023 study where we did a meta-analysis of studies published between 2000–2022. These compared the effects of writing by hand or keyboard on primary students’ writing.

We looked at 22 international studies involving 6,168 participants from across different countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and other non-native English-speaking countries, such as Germany and Portugal.

Our analysis showed primary students produce higher quality texts using paper and pen or pencil than when using a keyboard.

Why are kids stronger in handwriting?

In Australia – as in many other countries – children are taught to write by hand first. Keyboard writing is only added as an extra skill once handwriting has been mastered.

We know it is very important to continue to teach children to write by hand, despite so many advances in technology.

Studies show teaching handwriting in the first years of schooling is connected to improved spelling and greater capacity to write well and quickly in primary and later years of schooling.

Other studies show using handwriting to create texts (such as notes) promotes our capacity to learn and memorise information.

But they also need to learn how to use keyboards

We know it is also important for students be able to write quickly and accurately using a keyboard.

They will need to use keyboards to write for study, work and life as they get older. This process needs to become automatic so they can concentrate on the content of what they are writing.

Our research has consistently shown young people who can spell and write quickly and accurately are able to produce longer and higher quality pieces of writing. Other studies have shown when children face difficulties in handwriting or typing, they may often avoid writing altogether and develop a negative mindset toward writing.

Learning to type is complex

As our research suggests, students also need to be taught how to use a keyboard. Much like handwriting, it requires a complex set of cognitive, visual and motor processes, requiring frequent practice and instruction.

It involves learning the location of the keys on a keyboard, combined with spatial skills of positioning, and moving fingers to press the keys in the correct sequence. Students need time to practise so they can move beyond the “hunt and peck” motion (where you have to hunt visually for each key).

Research also suggests teaching about keyboards is more effective when spread out over several years.

First, children need to understand letter locations on the keyboard and the position of their hands, which can be developed via online practice exercises monitored by teachers. Accuracy and speed should not be emphasised until students have mastered where letters are.

Which comes first?

While students ultimately need to be able to write both on paper and using digital devices, there are unanswered questions about the order in which handwriting and typing should be taught or whether they should be taught together.

We also don’t yet know if it matters whether students are learning to write via keyboards, touch typing on tablets or by using stylus pens (devices that look like pencils and write via screens).

More research is needed to support teachers, students and families.

How to help your child

Despite these unknowns, there are many things we can do to help students learn how to write on paper and using a keyboard. These include:

• dedicating time for practice: teachers can build regular times in class to write and send home small tasks (such as writing a shopping list, finishing a story or describing a monster)

• joining in: instead of “policing” your child’s writing, show them what you write in your everyday life. As you write, you can talk about what you will write (planning) and you can share ideas about how you can make your writing clearer or more exciting.

• talk about your mistakes and find ways of correcting your writing: when adults talk about their errors or doubts, they make them a natural part of the process.

• ask children to read what they have written: this provides opportunities for correction and celebration. Praise children’s bold attempts such as using new words or experimenting with expressions.

• give children choice: this gives children some control. For example, they can choose a topic, they can mix art and letters or they can choose paper or keyboard.

• display their writing: make children’s writing visible on your walls or fridge or as wallpapers on your devices to instil a sense a pride in what they have done.

Anabela Malpique receives funding from The Ian Potter Foundation

Deborah Pino Pasternak receives funding from The Ian Potter Foundation, and the ACT Education Directorate via the Affiliated Schools Funded Research Projects.

Susan Ledger received funding from Ian Potter Foundation.

– ref. Our research shows children produce better pieces of writing by hand. But they need keyboard skills too – https://theconversation.com/our-research-shows-children-produce-better-pieces-of-writing-by-hand-but-they-need-keyboard-skills-too-229380

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron Teo, Lecturer in Curriculum and Pedagogy, University of Southern Queensland

Much has been written and produced about white men’s fetishisation of Asian women (crudely nicknamed “yellow fever”). The ABC’s comedy series White Fever breaks new ground by exploring an Asian woman’s white man fetish in an Australian context.

Across six humorous and heartwarming episodes, protagonist Jane Thomas (Ra Chapman), a Korean adoptee, embarks on a tumultuous journey of coming to terms with her internalised racism.

“Internalised racism” refers to a racial minority’s tacit acceptance of negative understandings or stereotypes about their own racial group. Or as sociologist Karen Pyke explains, it’s the “internalisation of racial oppression by the racially subordinated”.

Despite its close links with white supremacy and colonisation, it remains an issue that is largely omitted from public discussions about racism.

Jane’s ‘white fetish’

Episode one of White Fever sets the scene for how, despite appearing Asian, Jane is referred to as “whiter than most white people”. She was raised by white parents in a small country town. She enjoys meat pies, surrounds herself with white friends and is only sexually attracted to white “manly men” with ample body hair.

However, following an unsuccessful dalliance with a white bartender who has a liking for “petite and gentle” Asian women – and after being accused of not being able to date Asian men – Jane takes on the challenge of trying to land one.

Chaos and hilarity ensue as she unsuccessfully tries to woo a number of Asian men. And when she finds herself involuntarily repulsed by them, she seeks answers from Korean adoptee advocate and influencer Hera (Cassandra Sorrell).

From here, Jane is prompted to learn about the adoption of South Korean children, connect with fellow adoptees and, eventually, reconnect with her heritage by unlearning her internalised racism.

Upholding ideas of white supremacy

Internalised racism involves a minority group’s (conscious or subconscious) endorsement of a racial hierarchy that elevates white people above people of colour.

Working alongside other forms of oppression, it has insidious impacts at an individual level, as well as within and between minority groups.

Internalised racism can manifest in many ways. It might involve people of colour fixating on white cultural norms, denying racism exists, or even resenting their own culture.

The latter is captured poignantly in White Fever. We see Jane’s refusal to speak her heritage language, which she then ultimately loses. We also see a flashback of her younger self referring to the town’s sole Asian (Cantonese) restaurateur as a “ping pong woman” and “mail-order bride”.

Internalised racism also impacts self-image and beauty standards, such as through preferencing whiter skin and shaming non-white-looking hair.

Collectively, these attitudes can influence people of colours’ individual racial identities and can result in psychological distress or other adverse health impacts such as maladaptive coping behaviours, depression, anxiety and lower life satisfaction and quality of life, to name a few. Negative stereotypes about one’s racial group can also become self-fulfilling prophecies, which may lead to a person of colour distancing themselves from their group.

For Asian populations in particular, internalised racism can fracture communities from within when certain members uphold and reinforce harmful stereotypes on others. This is also shown in my own research on Asian communities in education spaces.

Beyond this, internalised racism has broader harmful effects in the form of anti-Blackness, which encompasses negative opinions and unfair treatment of Black people. In an Australian context this manifests as anti-Indigeneity.

What causes it?

Internalised racism is part of a broader system of racism which operates everyday at systemic and institutional levels.

But racism can be hard to understand and define. On one hand, it is a social construct that adapts to changing contexts. On the other, it reproduces harmful ideologies and behaviours that are all too familiar.

Racism’s complex, ever-changing and systemic nature helps to entrench internalised racism within minority groups. This makes it difficult to both recognise and work against.

In White Fever, Jane’s internalised racism – manifested in her willingness to egg the town’s Asian restaurant with her white schoolmates – is rewarded with a kiss from her white male crush, and her ongoing “friendship” with a white-dominant group.

Similarly, in real life, people of colour with internalised racism may be rewarded through an illusory sense of racial superiority. This form of “honorary whiteness” is detrimental to their own group and other minorities.

Is there a solution?

As Hera quips to Jane, internalised racism is “not your fault, but it is your responsibility”.

For Asian Australians and other racial minorities, challenging internalised racism starts with recognising the way in which white supremacy operates.

In an Australian context, it means focusing on First Nations sovereignty as a baseline for addressing broader racial inequity in Australia. This is a crucial first step in disassembling the systems of white supremacy which are responsible for the ongoing displacement and oppression of First Nations peoples and, by extension, of other minorities.

It also means taking an anti-racist stance at home, at work, in the classroom and beyond. It means speaking up, even when it feels uncomfortable.

And of course, this responsibility doesn’t just fall on racial minorities. White people can take on ally roles by educating themselves about all forms of racism, understanding their privilege, listening non-defensively and speaking with friends and family about racial injustice.

Racism is everyone’s responsibility, and something we should feverishly work against together.

Aaron Teo is Queensland Convener for the Asian Australian Alliance, which is grassroots organisation which empowers, advocates, and creates a platform for change for all Asian Australians through projects, workshops, campaigns, and public awareness (https://asianaustralianalliance.net/).

– ref. Is it wrong to have a romantic type based on race? Yes – it’s a form of racism we rarely speak about – https://theconversation.com/is-it-wrong-to-have-a-romantic-type-based-on-race-yes-its-a-form-of-racism-we-rarely-speak-about-229002

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The third Chalmers’ budget will deliver a surplus of $9.3 billion for this financial year – the second successive surplus of the Albanese government.

This will be the first time there have been back-to-back surpluses in nearly two decades. But the forecast surplus is less than the $22.1 billion last financial year.

Tuesday’s budget will show that compared to the December mid year budget update, there has been an improvement of $10.5 billion in the bottom line. The update forecasted a deficit of $1.1 billion for 2023-24.

The budget position between 2024-25 and 2026-27 will be weaker compared to the December update.

It will be much stronger, however, than the pre-election economic and fiscal outlook (PEFO) of 2022.

The government says most of the deterioration since the December update is a result of the need to fund unavoidable spending, including extending programs put in place by the former government that were due to end.

It says investments in the future drivers of growth will also contribute to bigger than previously forecast later deficits.

By 2027-28 the budget position will be stronger than forecast in the December update.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told the caucus on Monday the budget would be “a Labor budget through and through”.

“This will be a night of which you can all be very, very proud,” he said.

“We live in uncertain economic times, but what we’ve ensured is that we deal with some of those pressures whilst, of course, making sure we have our eye on the future.”

In releasing the surplus figure, Chalmers indicated the budget would bank 96% of the revenue upgrade in 2023-24. This upgrade came from greater-than-expected company tax and other collections in 2023-24.

But he gave no commitment on what would be banked in subsequent years, saying only the government would bank (not spend) revenue upgrades while inflation remained “above the Reserve Bank’s target band”.

The budget will forecast inflation falling back within the target band by the end of this year.

Chalmers has previously indicated that for some of the years for which spending is forecast, deficits will be bigger than previously announced in December in order to support the economy.

The increase in real spending is expected to average 1.4% over the period between the start of the Labor government to 2027-28.

Chalmers said the forecast surplus had “come on top, not at the expense, of helping those doing it tough”.

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said the government had found more than $77 billion in savings and reprioritisation since coming to office.

Albanese said the budget would have new investments in Medicare and the health system, more help for households, more homes, and a tax cut for every taxpayer.

The cost-of-living relief would not increase inflation – indeed, it would reduce inflation.

Meanwhile, a Morgan poll released Monday had Labor with a two-party lead over the Coalition of 52% to 48%.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Jim Chalmers’ third budget will have a surplus of $9.3 billion for this financial year – https://theconversation.com/jim-chalmers-third-budget-will-have-a-surplus-of-9-3-billion-for-this-financial-year-229009

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Annette Greenhow, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law, Bond University

In recent years, a growing number of professional athletes are medically retiring from sport, particularly in some of Australia’s most popular football codes.

In April, Collingwood player Nathan Murphy, 24, medically retired due to advice about his concussion history. He follows 28-year-old Angus Brayshaw as another high-profile, mid-career player who announced his retirement on medical grounds this year.

In other codes, Cronulla Sharks co-captain Dale Finucane retired last month due to concussion concerns. He joined other NRL players Boyd Cordner, Jake Friend and Andrew Davey in retiring on medical advice or by personal choice.

Rising Australian cricket star Will Pucovksi, with a long history of concussions, is currently working with medical experts from in the sport to determine his playing future.

Medical retirement can happen at any level of any sport, but media and public attention tends to focus on the elite codes, drawing attention to the heightened public awareness of concussion and concerns around the cumulative effects of repeated head impacts and links to longer term neurological conditions.

But what is the process these players go through in reaching this decision? Is there any room for pushback should a player want to continue to play despite being advised otherwise?

Living the dream

We first need to understand the context of the sporting field as a workplace. These are performance-driven athletes with identities shaped by the pathways they take to reach the top.

To illustrate, the annual AFL draft involves around 1,500 young hopefuls trying out for selection, with less than 10% getting an offer to join professional ranks.

So a measure of success is being selected and employed by a team and then staying on a club’s active list for the longest period possible.

This brings us to the other point of difference – the very short average length of a player’s career at the elite level.

According to the AFL Players’ Association (AFLPA), the average length of a footballer’s professional career is less than six years.

So in terms of financial rewards and sponsorship opportunities, this means making a living from perusing this dream is much shorter than the average worker, and athletes often do everything they can to keep playing – occasionally risking their health to do so. Sociologists call this the “sport ethic”, involving risk, pain and injury tolerance to win at all costs.

Sorry, but the dream might be over

With this context, receiving medical advice recommending early retirement must be devastating for an athlete.

Both the AFLPA and the Rugby League Players Association (RLPA) have developed support mechanisms to help athletes navigate the process in the event that retirement may be on the cards, recognising the toll it can take on a player’s mental health and wellbeing.

But what are the steps in the lead-up to a medical decision?

The player’s first point of contact is typically a club doctor or other club-appointed health professionals. These health professionals are closely involved in assessing a player’s fitness and use league-approved concussion and head injury assessment diagnostic tools and processes.

In 2019, the AFL adopted a process in which a panel of three medical specialists assesses a player and makes a recommendation to assist decision-making about future participation.

Triggered by a referral from the club doctor, each panel member examines and assesses the athlete. They see the player, review all notes from the team doctor, along with the player’s medical history, reports and records, including scans and test results.

If required, further testing is done.

The panel aims to reach a medical consensus – all experts agreeing on the outcome, either recommending retirement or a follow-up. A consensus is important as it reduces the risk of an athlete “shopping around” to get a favourable result if they want to continue playing.

The model is similar to that in workers’ compensation assessments but instead of assessing compensation, it’s about assessing fitness to continue playing.

Medical and legal risks of continuing

The AFL’s medical expert panel provides a recommendation to the player, but the ultimate decision rests with the athlete.

If the athlete chooses to ignore medical advice and continue to play, then there could be legal factors to consider for the player, their club and the club doctor.

As an employee of a club, an athlete is bound to comply with the legal obligations under the player’s employment contract and the collective bargaining agreement.

A common obligation involves being fit to play and an obligation to follow medical advice from club doctors and club-appointed health professionals. If a player elects to continue to play despite medical advice to the contrary, they could be risking a breach of contract.

In the context of the club as an employer, workplace-related issues could arise in regard to obligations of health and safety processes and compliance.

For club doctors and clinicians, Michael Turner – medical director of The International Concussion and Head Injury Research Foundation – and colleagues developed a framework to assist clinician decision-making in complex cases.

But another legal issue to consider is the assumption of the risk – if a player ignores medical advice, they bear the responsibility and assume the risk of harm.

Creating a ‘concussion smart’ future

Murphy and the other brave players who tell their stories raise public awareness and help people understand that these are serious matters.

Instead of wearing a “badge on honour” to play on through injuries at the expense of future health, these athletes are playing a pivotal role in reshaping the narrative.

Their stories and willingness to publicly share the toughest of decisions deserve recognition, making a major contribution to Australia’s “concussion smart” future.

Annette Greenhow received funding as part of a Partnership Development Grant administered by the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Committee,.She is affiliated with the Australian and New Zealand Sports Law Association. Views are her own.

– ref. What is the process of an athlete being ‘medically retired’ due to concussion? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-process-of-an-athlete-being-medically-retired-due-to-concussion-229710

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Scott, Professor of Health Economics, Monash University

Deciding whether to wait and see if your health condition improves or go to a GP can be a difficult task. You might be unsure about where to go, whom to see, how much it will cost and whether you’ll need to take time off work.

These choices can create significant barriers to accessing health care in Australia. There is often limited information available about the pros and cons of the different options. Often, we stick to what we know, unaware of better alternatives.

But making the wrong decision about how to access care can impact both your health and finances. So what are your options? And what policy reforms are needed to improve affordable access to care for all Australians?

How quickly can I be seen?

Access depends on how long it takes you to speak to a GP, or be seen in an emergency department, or by a community pharmacist, or a nurse practitioner whom you can see directly. Access depends on where you live and the time of day.

The rise of telehealth means GPs now get paid to talk to you on the phone, which is great for many minor ailments, medical certificates, repeat scripts or getting test results. Call centres such as Healthdirect have been available for some time and now virtual emergency departments can also see you online.

There are even GPs who only provide their services online if you can pay. A phone call can save you valuable time. Before COVID, you needed to take half a day off work to see a GP, now it takes five to ten minutes and the GP even calls you.

Things get more tricky outside of normal working hours and at weekends – appointments are harder to come by, it is unlikely you will be able to see a GP whom you know, and out-of-pocket costs might be higher.

If you can’t wait, your local emergency department is likely to be more accessible, or you might be lucky enough to live near a bulk-billed Medicare urgent care clinic, where you don’t need an appointment. Tomorrow’s federal budget will include funding for another 29 urgent care clinics, on top of the 58 already operating.

But things are much worse if you live if a rural or remote area, where choice is limited and you need to wait much longer for GP appointments or travel long distances. Telehealth helps but can be expensive if it is not with your usual doctor.

Who will I see?

Access depends on who you will see. At the moment, this will usually be your GP (or, depending on the severity of your health concern, your community pharmacist or local emergency department staff). But to see your preferred GP you might need to wait as they are usually very busy.

But a review of “scope of practice” in primary care aims to free up GPs’ time and use their skills more effectively.

So in future, you could receive more of your health care from qualified nurses, nurse practitioners, pharmacists and other health professionals.

But which tasks can be delegated to other health professionals is a significant bone of contention for GPs. For GP practices facing significant cost pressures, safely delegating tasks to other less costly health professionals also makes good business sense.

Read more:
We’re only using a fraction of health workers’ skills. This needs to change

How much will it cost?

Access depends on out-of-pocket costs. Bulk billing of GP services reached a peak of 89.6% in the September quarter of 2022 but plummeted to 76.5% by the September quarter of 2023.

Last November, bulk billing incentives for children under 16 and those on concession cards were tripled, and between November and December 2023 bulk billing had increased from 76.5% to 77.7%.

They key issue for patients is that it remains uncertain whether a GP will bulk bill you. You often don’t know this until you get into the consultation, at which point you can’t back out. Unless the whole practice bulk bills and so it is guaranteed, it’s entirely up to the GP whether you are bulk billed. It’s difficult to think of any other service where you don’t know how much you will pay until after you have used it.

How can policymakers improve access to care?

Government policies to strengthen primary care have focused on giving patients improved access through telehealth, urgent care clinics and Strengthening Medicare initiatives, which are currently being developed.

But uncertainty surrounding out-of-pocket costs can deter people from seeking medical attention, or delay care or go instead to the emergency department or urgent care clinic where there is no out-of-pocket cost.

Cost is a factor that leads to 20% of those with a mental health problem and 30% of those with chronic disease to delay or avoid visiting a health professional. Those most in need are more likely to miss out on necessary visits and prescriptions, sometimes with disastrous consequences. A recent study shows people can die if they stop heart medications due to increased out-of-pocket costs.

The next task for policymakers should be developing policies to guarantee there are no out-of-pocket costs for those on low incomes. This could be a worthwhile investment in our health and should be included in tomorrow’s budget.

Anthony Scott is currently a member of the Strengthening Medicare Implementation Oversight Committee and the Expert Advisory Panel for the Review of General Practice Incentives and the Review of Primary Care After Hours Programs for the Department of Health and Aged Care for which he receives sitting fees. The views are those of the author and not the Department of Health and Aged Care.

– ref. It’s so hard to see a doctor right now. What are my options? – https://theconversation.com/its-so-hard-to-see-a-doctor-right-now-what-are-my-options-229191

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jodi Gardner, Professor, Law School, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Last week’s headlines warning of electricity shortfalls brought the issue of access to energy into (increasingly chilly) homes around the country.

The threat of power cuts due to an unseasonable cold snap and low wind generation was averted by a nationwide effort to reduce consumption. But winter has not even begun in earnest.

Ensuring households can access fuel to warm living areas of the home has been ranked a basic human right by scholars, advocates and some at the United Nations. In a recent survey in the United Kingdom, 97% of survey respondents classified it as a “necessity” to live an adequate life.

And yet an estimated 40,000 New Zealand households had their power cut due to unpaid bills in 2023. And one in five had trouble paying their monthly power bill.

How have we ended up with so many people unable to access such a basic necessity – particularly when energy companies are making near-record margins? Meridian, Contact, Genesis and Mercury made a combined NZ$2.7 billion profit in the 2023 financial year.

The answer goes back to New Zealand’s market structures and the fact so many basic necessities – food, housing and electricity – are provided by private companies.

The rise in fuel poverty

Fuel poverty (also known as fuel hardship) is an ongoing challenge in Aotearoa New Zealand – particularly when it comes to heating.

According to the UK government, a household experiences fuel poverty if it has to spend more than 10% of the total household income on electricity, gas and other fuels to achieve a satisfactory indoor environment. This is defined as meaning at least 21°C in the living areas and 18°C in other parts of the house.

The situation has been exacerbated by COVID-19, increasing inequality, and the cost-of-living crisis.

According to the government, 110,000 households could not afford to keep their house adequately warm in 2022. Māori and Pacific households, renters and low-income households were more likely to experience hardship.

Inadequately heating homes, or having to disconnect electricity, does not just mean people are cold. There are many related, serious social, health and economic consequences.

Damp and mould become a problem, children do not get adequate nutrition due to money going on heating, people’s physical and mental health conditions worsen, food in fridges and freezers can spoil.

According to Consumer NZ, 19% of households had trouble paying their monthly power bill in 2023 but still didn’t meet the threshold of “energy hardship”. Those in dire straits can apply for a Work and Income grant. But these are essentially a loan and can cause financial strain while being repaid.

Private responsibility for a public problem

The political system has almost completely wiped its hands of any overriding duty to ensure people have access to electricity. Instead, it is provided through a contract between the consumer and the energy company.

If someone cannot afford to pay their electricity bill, they run the risk of being judged for not being financially responsible and forced to pay additional disconnection (and reconnection) fees. This approach ignores the fact that the minimum wage rose by only 2% in April but inflation sat at 4% in the first quarter of 2024.

The problem is exacerbated by significant fluctuations in the cost of electricity. This is based on both wholesale cost and the amount of electricity used by households. As the country heads into winter, hundreds of thousands may not be able to heat their homes adequately.

The government has previously offered piecemeal solutions, such as the (now disbanded) Warmer Kiwi Homes programme. A small number of the most vulnerable households also receive up to $31.82 per week to help pay for electricity.

But the statistics on struggling households and financial hardship around the country show these responses are really only a drop in the bucket.

The ‘social tarrif’ solution

One solution would be to return to state ownership of electricity, but that is far from realistic in this political environment.

A simpler – and more appropriately targeted – approach is to implement “social tariffs” for electricity. These are targeted discount energy deals funded by the government for qualifying low-income consumers.

There are examples of social tariffs being used overseas to reduce the harm being caused by profit-driven companies operating in essential sectors.

In the UK, for example, a number of private telecommunications providers have voluntarily chosen to implement subsidised social tariffs for broadband and telephone for people on certain welfare benefits. This is because access to the internet, like electricity, is seen as a basic human right in developed countries.

In light of the profits being made by New Zealand’s biggest energy providers, a serious reconsideration of the system is surely justified. Cost-of-living pressures are ongoing, while temperatures are falling.

If we believe energy is a human right, and all New Zealand houses deserve to be comfortable this winter, now would be the time to act.

I am a co-author with Mia Gray and have worked with her on a number of projects on this topic

– ref. NZ’s big chill was an early winter warning: power should be subsidised for struggling households – https://theconversation.com/nzs-big-chill-was-an-early-winter-warning-power-should-be-subsidised-for-struggling-households-229795

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jess Carniel, Associate professor in Humanities, University of Southern Queensland

Every year claims to be the most controversial year in the Eurovision Song Contest’s history, but it will take a lot to beat the 68th contest.

The 2024 Eurovision contest, which took place in Malmö, Sweden, was marked by conflict, boycotts, protests, harassment and disqualification. Ironically, it was also the year the organisers, the European Broadcasting Union, chose to establish a permanent slogan: United By Music.

Upon announcing the slogan in late 2023, Eurovision’s executive supervisor, Martin Österdahl, said:

By establishing a permanent slogan, we will have consistency in our message that music unites us all. It’s the perfect slogan to underline our values of inclusivity, equality, universality and celebrating diversity through music.

But the backdrop of the October 7 attacks by Hamas on southern Israel and the ongoing war in Gaza have cast a long shadow over Eurovision 2024.

Calls for Israel’s exclusion

Despite the implicit politics of Eurovision’s new slogan, the contest maintains it is a non-political event. Participating broadcasters and artists are required to ensure the contest is not

[…] politicised and/or instrumentalised and/or otherwise brought into disrepute in any way.

But is it possible for a contest of nations to be non-political?

Just as the conflict in Gaza has divided the international community, Eurovision fans, artists and broadcasters were also divided regarding Israel’s participation.

The Palestinian Campaign for the Academic and Cultural Boycott of Israel, a founding member of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, called for “all participating broadcasters, national competitors, finalists, production crews and viewers” to boycott the event.

Numerous open letters, co-signed by members of the creative industries, were also published in the lead-up to the contest. Some called for Israel to be excluded and/or the event to be boycotted, while others expressed support for Israel and for the contest as a “celebration of unity”.

Many compared the situation to 2022, when Russia was excluded from the contest following its invasion of Ukraine. In response, the European Broadcasting Union emphasised “the Eurovision Song Contest is a competition for broadcasters” (not states), and the Russian broadcasters were suspended from the organisation and contest for “repeated violations of membership obligations and violation of the rules of the public media”.

So as long as KAN, the Israeli broadcaster, adhered to the membership and contest rules, it would be permitted to remain in the contest.

Some suggest the broadcasting union’s decision itself has brought the contest into disrepute, while an anonymous X account has dedicated itself to documenting allegations against KAN regarding adherence to the rules.

Netherlands gets disqualified

Further controversy emerged in the 24 hours ahead of the grand final broadcast. The Dutch act was disqualified for inappropriate behaviour towards a member of the Swedish production team. The European Broadcasting Union said it maintained

a zero-tolerance policy toward inappropriate behaviour […] and are committed to providing a safe and secure working environment for all staff at the contest.

With this affirmation of policy in mind, prior to the dress rehearsal, Irish artist Bambie Thug lodged a complaint
against the Israeli commentators over remarks made during their performance, claiming they breached the rules of the contest. Bambie Thug also said they had been harassed by Israeli fans.

The 2024 grand final opened with two powerhouse countries: Sweden and Ukraine. Sweden was represented by Norwegian twins Marcus & Martinus and their song Unforgettable, while Ukraine’s alonya alyona & Jerry Heil sang the powerful Teresa & Maria.

Together with Luxembourg, which returned to the contest for the first time since 1994, Ukraine is the only country to maintain a 100% grand final qualification record.

Victory for Switzerland

Israel performed fifth. Eden Golan’s song, Hurricane, was entered into the contest following two revisions of the lyrics to remove political references, including its original title, October Rain (a reference to the October 7 attack).

The crowd’s fractured response was audible in the broadcast, and footage posted by audience members on social media provides evidence of widespread booing. Despite this reaction in the arena, Israel placed second in the public televote.

Israel was surpassed in the popular vote by crowd favourite Baby Lasagna, from Croatia. Rim Tim Tagi Dim is a catchy metal song about the impact of economic emigration on young Croatians, their connection to family and their cultural identity.

However, despite leading the betting odds for most of the contest season, Croatia was pipped at the post by jury favourite, The Code, by Nemo from Switzerland. They are the first non-binary artist to win the contest, notably with an artistically impressive and engaging celebration of their non-binary gender identity.

In their victory speech, Nemo said:

I hope this contest can live up to its promise and continue to stand for peace and dignity for every person in this world.

With Nemo’s victory, next year’s hosting duties are passed on to Switzerland, the home of the European Broadcasting Union. The country last won the contest in 1988, when it was represented by a little-known French-Canadian artist named Celine Dion. It also hosted (and won) the first Eurovision contest in 1956.

Tensions run high

Many are questioning Eurovision’s future. Österdahl was almost drowned out by audience boos while verifying the results. A planned skit dedicated to him was cut from the final broadcast, as was the use of the Dutch song title, Europapa, to introduce him.

The audience response to Österdahl is illustrative of the growing disquiet among fans and member broadcasters with the union’s management of the contest. This includes concerns about its partner sponsors (such as Israeli company Moroccanoil), whether it’s effectively safeguarding freedom of the press, and doubts about its capacity to maintain the contest as “non-political”.

The stakes are now high for the union, in collaboration with the Swiss broadcaster SRG SSR, to convince the world it can be united in music after all.

Read more:
Hind’s Hall is Macklemore’s bold new pro-Palestine anthem. What might it actually achieve?

Jess Carniel is currently a Research Fellow at the USC Center on Public Diplomacy.

– ref. Boycotts, protests, harassment: Eurovision’s future is on the line after its most controversial year yet – https://theconversation.com/boycotts-protests-harassment-eurovisions-future-is-on-the-line-after-its-most-controversial-year-yet-229369

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Schmidt, Professor of Chemistry, UNSW Sydney

Last week, a huge solar flare sent a wave of energetic particles from the Sun surging out through space. Over the weekend, the wave reached Earth, and people around the world enjoyed the sight of unusually vivid aurora in both hemispheres.

While the aurora is normally only visible close to the poles, this weekend it was spotted as far south as Hawaii in the northern hemisphere, and as far north as Mackay in the south.

This spectacular spike in auroral activity appears to have ended, but don’t worry if you missed out. The Sun is approaching the peak of its 11-year sunspot cycle, and periods of intense aurora are likely to return over the next year or so.

If you saw the aurora, or any of the photos, you might be wondering what exactly was going on. What makes the glow, and the different colours? The answer is all about atoms, how they get excited – and how they relax.

When electrons meet the atmosphere

The auroras are caused by charged subatomic particles (mostly electrons) smashing into Earth’s atmosphere. These are emitted from the Sun all the time, but there are more during times of greater solar activity.

Most of our atmosphere is protected from the influx of charged particles by Earth’s magnetic field. But near the poles, they can sneak in and wreak havoc.

Earth’s atmosphere is about 20% oxygen and 80% nitrogen, with some trace amounts of other things like water, carbon dioxide (0.04%) and argon.

When high-speed electrons smash into oxygen molecules in the upper atmosphere, they split the oxygen molecules (O₂) into individual atoms. Ultraviolet light from the Sun does this too, and the oxygen atoms generated can react with O₂ molecules to produce ozone (O₃), the molecule that protects us from harmful UV radiation.

But, in the case of the aurora, the oxygen atoms generated are in an excited state. This means the atoms’ electrons are arranged in an unstable way that can “relax” by giving off energy in the form of light.

What makes the green light?

As you see in fireworks, atoms of different elements produce different colours of light when they are energised.

Copper atoms give a blue light, barium is green, and sodium atoms produce a yellow–orange colour that you may also have seen in older street lamps. These emissions are “allowed” by the rules of quantum mechanics, which means they happen very quickly.

When a sodium atom is in an excited state it only stays there for around 17 billionths of a second before firing out a yellow–orange photon.

But, in the aurora, many of the oxygen atoms are created in excited states with no “allowed” ways to relax by emitting light. Nevertheless, nature finds a way.

The green light that dominates the aurora is emitted by oxygen atoms relaxing from a state called “¹S” to a state called “¹D”. This is a relatively slow process, which on average takes almost a whole second.

In fact, this transition is so slow it won’t usually happen at the kind of air pressure we see at ground level, because the excited atom will have lost energy by bumping into another atom before it has a chance to send out a lovely green photon. But in the atmosphere’s upper reaches, where there is lower air pressure and therefore fewer oxygen molecules, they have more time before bumping into one another and therefore have a chance to release a photon.

For this reason, it took scientists a long time to figure out that the green light of the aurora was coming from oxygen atoms. The yellow–orange glow of sodium was known in the 1860s, but it wasn’t until the 1920s that Canadian scientists figured out the auroral green was due to oxygen.

What makes the red light?

The green light comes from a so-called “forbidden” transition, which happens when an electron in the oxygen atom executes an unlikely leap from one orbital pattern to another. (Forbidden transitions are much less probable than allowed ones, which means they take longer to occur.)

However, even after emitting that green photon, the oxygen atom finds itself in yet another excited state with no allowed relaxation. The only escape is via another forbidden transition, from the ¹D to the ³P state – which emits red light.

This transition is even more forbidden, so to speak, and the ¹D state has to survive for about about two minutes before it can finally break the rules and give off red light. Because it takes so long, the red light only appears at high altitudes, where the collisions with other atoms and molecules are scarce.

Also, because there is such a small amount of oxygen up there, the red light tends to appear only in intense auroras – like the ones we have just had.

This is why the red light appears above the green. While they both originate in forbidden relaxations of oxygen atoms, the red light is emitted much more slowly and has a higher chance of being extinguished by collisions with other atoms at lower altitudes.

Other colours, and why cameras see them better

While green is the most common colour to see in the aurora, and red the second most common, there are also other colours. In particular, ionised nitrogen molecules (N₂⁺, which are missing one electron and have a positive electrical charge), can emit blue and red light. This can produce a magenta hue at low altitudes.

All these colours are visible to the naked eye if the aurora is bright enough. However, they show up with more intensity in the camera lens.

There are two reasons for this. First, cameras have the benefit of a long exposure, which means they can spend more time collecting light to produce an image than our eyes can. As a result, they can make a picture in dimmer conditions.

The second is that the colour sensors in our eyes don’t work very well in the dark – so we tend to see in black and white in low light conditions. Cameras don’t have this limitation.

Not to worry, though. When the aurora is bright enough, the colours are clearly visible to the naked eye.

Read more:
What are auroras, and why do they come in different shapes and colours? Two experts explain

Timothy Schmidt receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.

– ref. What causes the different colours of the aurora? An expert explains the electric rainbow – https://theconversation.com/what-causes-the-different-colours-of-the-aurora-an-expert-explains-the-electric-rainbow-229899

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Ordway, Associate Professor Sport Management and Sport Integrity Lead, University of Canberra

Sport has a role to play in creating a culture of respect, yet women in sport are often seen as “less than” on almost every measure: salaries, sponsorship, broadcasting, leadership, access, media, coaching, officiating, uniforms and support.

Research shows three out of four Australian men are gender equality supporters, but very few (17%) prioritise taking any action.

As Australia grapples with a “national crisis” of violence against women, what can men in sport do to help?

What does the research tell us?

Rigid gender norms can play a part in fuelling male violence against women and children. And sport is an arena, excuse the pun, where rigid gender norms flourish.

When it comes to sport and gendered violence, a special level of toxic attack and misogyny is reserved for women who “dare” to play, watch and work in sport, and this is particularly heightened for women of colour and/or presumed to be from the LGBTQI+ community, whether identifying or not.

Sport also regularly promotes alcohol and gambling, with evident impacts on women and children – whenever there are big sporting events, violence against women by spectators increases.

Players, coaches, commentators and officials repeatedly avoid sanctions, or get a slap on the wrist, and go on to secure leadership roles in sport, sometimes despite allegations of serious gender-based offences.

The message this sends to younger players and fans is that misogyny is acceptable and that “heroes” are beyond reproach. This green-lights sexism, and completely undermines any messages around equality.

Tracey Gaudry has held a trifecta of roles relevant to this discussion. Not only was she previously a former champion cyclist, and former CEO of Hawthorn Football Club, she has also been Respect Victoria’s CEO.

Back in 2020 she nailed the confluence of issues:

“Gender inequality is a driver of violence against women and it can start out small. Because sport comes from a male-dominant origin, those things build up over time and become a natural part of the sporting system and an assumed part.”

What are sports codes and teams doing?

Professional sport organisations and clubs have been trying to address abusive behaviour towards women for decades. Both the AFL and NRL began developing respect and responsibility programs and policies 20 years ago, yet the abuse, and the headlines, continue – against both women in the game, and at home.

There are also opportunities for clubs to take action even if their governing bodies don’t. Semi-professional rugby league club the Redfern All Blacks, for example, are showing leadership: players who are alleged to be perpetrators are banned from playing until they’re prepared to talk about it openly, and prove they are committed to changing their behaviour.

Education is also vital.

At the elite level, most codes are trying to educate those within their sports – the NRL’s Voice Against Violence program, led by Our Watch, is the same organisation the AFL has recently partnered with.

The NRL also implements the “Change the Story” framework in partnership with ANROWS and VicHealth, which includes a zero tolerance education program for juniors transitioning into seniors.

What more should be done?

The AFL’s recent minute silence gesture to support women affected by violence does not go far enough.

Men, especially those in leadership positions, can take action by actively dishonouring the men who have abused women.

Some of the men we celebrate around the country for their service as players, presidents, life members and coaches have been abusive towards women and children.

Recently, the AFL demanded Wayne Carey – who has a long history of domestic violence allegations and assault convictions – be denied his NSW Hall of Fame Legend status. The next step is to see Carey struck off his club and AFL honour rolls.

The same treatment should apply to other convicted abusers such as Jarrod Hayne and Ben Cousins – the list goes on.

To take a stand on violence against women, award winners who have been convicted for, or admitted to, abuse against women should be explicitly called out with an asterisk next to their names – “dishonoured for abuse against women”.

And current and future awards must be ineligible to abusers. Serious crimes should mean a life ban for all roles in sport.

If there is a criminal conviction, or an admission of disrespectful behaviour (abuse, sexism, racism, ableism or homophobia), then action must immediately be taken to strip them of their privileges.

What about the grey area of allegations?

One tricky challenge for sport organisations is how to deal with allegations that don’t result in criminal convictions.

The legal system has systematically failed to protect women from sexual predators, so we can’t rely solely on a conviction to act.

In 2019, the NRL introduced a discretionary “no fault, stand down” rule for players charged with serious criminal offences, and/or offences involving women and children. Under this rule, players must stand down from matches until the matter is resolved.

All sports should, as a baseline starting point, be following suit.

Where to from here?

It’s time sport organisations and fans acknowledged two things can be true: good, even great, athletes, coaches or administrators can be bad humans.

Sporting codes need a zero-tolerance approach for abuse of women which should apply to fans, players, coaches, umpires, referees and administrators.

All codes should strongly consider implementing the “no fault, stand down” rule similar to the NRL. Perpetrators should not be allowed back into high-profile roles. Supporters must also be held to account – if fans can be banned for racism, they can be banned for sexism.

At all levels and across all sports, we must send the message from the ground up: misogyny is unacceptable and the consequence for your bad behaviour is that you are no longer welcome.

The University of Canberra and Sport Integrity Australia have an MoU in place to support a number of research projects, including a research project titled: “Online Harm: Women working in the sports industry.”

Ginger Gorman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A minute’s silence is fine but when it comes to violence against women, being quiet isn’t enough – https://theconversation.com/a-minutes-silence-is-fine-but-when-it-comes-to-violence-against-women-being-quiet-isnt-enough-229718

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sean Buckley, Lecturer in Molecular Ecology and Environmental Management, Edith Cowan University

The southern pygmy perch hadn’t been seen in Bendigo Creek since the mid-19th-century goldrush, when a booming town sprang up around the central Victorian waterway. This attractive small fish, which displays bright colours when breeding, is no more than 6–8cm long. Once widespread, the species eventually became locally extinct across the Loddon River catchment, which includes the creek.

But today, thanks to the efforts of community volunteers, scientists and local authorities, there are several thriving local populations of this small fish.

Reintroducing species to their old habitat is complicated. For animal species, we need good information about where to source them from and how many to move. It’s essential to have good habitat ready for the newly restored population.

We should also know how genetically diverse the population is because that can affect its long-term success.

A successful reintroduction depends on researchers, environmental managers and local communities working together. That’s exactly what happened in Bendigo.

Pygmy perch range has shrunk

The southern pygmy perch (Nannoperca australis) was once found in many rivers and streams across New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. However, the combined pressures of habitat loss and degradation, invasive species such as redfin perch, carp and eastern gambusia, drought and drawing too much water for farming drove many populations to local extinction.

In 2015, recognising the importance of collaboration across management groups and communities, six regional bodies formed the Tri-State Murray NRM Alliance. They developed the “Magnificent Six” project to reintroduce six native freshwater fish species – all small and endangered – in the Murray-Darling Basin, which includes the Loddon River. The southern pygmy perch was first in line.

In 2018, through the tri-state alliance, a partnership between local government, environmental managers, an aquarium business, local community and fish hobbyists was formed. The Molecular Ecology Lab at Flinders University was brought in to provide guidance and genetics expertise. The lab had experience of successful captive breeding and reintroduction of southern pygmy perch in South Australia.

Everyone came together to plan the most effective course of action. We consulted local community members. We discussed where best to collect fish from and to move them. We planned planting efforts to restore suitable habitat.

Building up new populations

In September 2018, local volunteers – guided by environmental managers – collected more than 100 wild fish. These came from three creeks in two nearby river systems: the Campaspe and Avoca Rivers.

They took these fish to the Middle Creek Farm, a private aquarium business in Stratford, Victoria, to set up a captive breeding program. The aim was to make sure we had enough fish to sustain new populations. Over the next year, volunteers helped to breed and raise more than 600 fish for release.

At the same time, volunteers created new homes for these fish in three local wetlands by planting aquatic vegetation and building woody habitat. The combination of woody debris and dense reeds provides refuge from predators like aquatic birds and are particularly important nurseries for juvenile fish.

In January 2020, 800 fish from all three creeks were released across four wetlands, including restored urban wetlands and national parks. The team came back in September that year to monitor how they were doing.

A triumph for community action based on expert advice

Local communities can play an integral role in programs like this. To date, relatively few conservation programs include active public participation. Even fewer consider genetic information.

At every stage of the Bendigo reintroduction, we collected DNA from the fish by taking a small clipping of the tail fin. Our aim was to see how well the program had maintained genetic diversity. This is important for populations to persist in the long term.

We showed the genetic diversity of the parents was maintained. This diversity has helped the new populations to thrive.

Interestingly, we found the different source populations had unique genetic variation and the breeding program had caused some fish to become “mixed” (like hybrids). When we monitored the populations after release, we found more of these mixed fish surviving. That suggests genetic mixing might be important for southern pygmy perch.

This information helped us to make recommendations for future reintroductions elsewhere.

Everyone benefits

The program was a huge success. All three populations are thriving – so much so that 2,800 fish were taken from our release sites to start a new population in another site within the Gunbower Forest along the Murray River last September. The species was last recorded there in 1997.

With their voracious appetite for mosquito larvae, these populations of pygmy perch may offer a natural solution for pest management. They are also a key food source for many native freshwater fish and waterbird species.

The community benefited too. Seven new landcare groups and more than 20 landholders are now part of reintroduction programs for other fish species. Volunteer organisations increased their social media and public footprint. Pygmy perch have also become popular fish in dams and backyard ponds.

Aquariums of southern pygmy perch are being used in high schools to teach students about fish conservation, pest management and water chemistry.

How can you get involved?

Communities are working tirelessly to restore lost biodiversity across Australia. To help bring back a lost local species you can:

• get involved with your local community “Friends of” conservation groups as well as regional groups, which are great for driving change in your area

• approach local councils and government to provide support and contact relevant stakeholders

• call in university researchers, of course. Many of us would love to provide our expertise and skills to conservation efforts.

Together, we can improve the conservation status of threatened species and restore our declining biodiversity.

We acknowledge the contributions made by Chris Lamin (Middle Creek Farm), Peter Rose (North Central Catchment Management Authority) and Chris Brauer (Flinders University) to this article and research.

Luciano Beheregaray receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. How a long-lost fish species was brought back to Bendigo – https://theconversation.com/how-a-long-lost-fish-species-was-brought-back-to-bendigo-225800

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tracey Clement, Lecturer in Visual Art and McGlade Gallery Director, Australian Catholic University

I slip the needle through a small loop of black thread, pull it tight and snip. Done. I have just tied off the very last stitch on an embroidered scroll that has taken me more than 500 hours across 19 months to complete.

All of my artwork is extremely labour-intensive. But I have to admit, this is a bit excessive, even for me. It’s not surprising that I have been asked more than once “why not just outsource the labour?” and even “what is the point?”

I always sigh and think enviously of plumbers. I am 100% sure hardworking tradies are never asked to justify the point of their work.

Why do I work so hard? There is no one easy answer, it’s different every time. The labour intensity of my processes adds time into the equation and this both carries meaning and can change the meaning of the work as it goes on (and on and on). I always learn something unexpected.

I put my little scissors down and, before busting out the bubbles, I snap a picture for Instagram because #selfpromotion, but also because this is news, albeit of a very slow-breaking kind. This is what I’ve learned after stitching for seemingly endless hours: while no news may be good news, “slow news” is even better.

My embroidered scroll is titled Impossible Numbers. It started as my attempt to memorialise the estimated 3,000,000,000 non-human lives lost in the devastating bushfires of 2019–20, a number impossible to actually comprehend.

Doomscrolling an emergency

During that long and awful summer Sydney was often shrouded in an eerie orange haze. You could smell smoke. Ash fell. But, like many Australians, I experienced the worst of it by doomscrolling fast news.

I was both horrified and fascinated by images of fires so huge and hot they generated their own weather, by pictures of houses reduced to smoking skeletal outlines that somehow remained standing, by headlines comparing the fires to armageddon and the apocalypse.

This hyperbolic language implies we are locked in a war of good versus evil. Even headlines in the vein of “Firefighters battle blazes” pit us (people) against them (the forces of nature). And in the heat of the moment the language of war feels right. I’ve succumbed to it myself. But it is dangerous. This language reinforces the idea we can dominate nature; it frames the fires as a conflict that we can end by winning.

I will admit watching a goat-toting woman berate a sitting prime minister left me with a short-lived, but mildly satisfying, feeling of shared righteous indignation. But mostly doomscrolling just fuelled my sorrow and left me feeling impotent as, inevitably, the fast news cycled on to the next crisis (and the next, and the next).

Slowing it down

In October 2022, I finally stopped trying to process the bushfires, and all their terrifying implications, through the fast-news language of war. I picked up a needle instead.

Of course 3,000,000,000 stitches would be too many, even for me, so I decided to stitch a grid of some 15,000 squares, which I filled with innumerable stitches – a nod to the endless stream of pixels that usually deliver our news.

I started wanting to honour the 3 billion dead, that impossible number, but after months of stitching I realised I was “writing” a kind of slow-news story. It may sound ridiculous, but this tactic has been used before. The Bayeux Tapestry is a slow-news story that documents the Norman conquest of England through embroidery. It took years to stitch, and some 950 years later it is still in circulation.

As an alternative to doomscrolling easily digestible fast-news stories of good triumphing (or not) over evil, I have created an actual fabric scroll which depicts a stylised firestorm building in intensity until it becomes all-consuming.

Despite mimicking pixels, Impossible Numbers is resolutely handmade. It is too messy, too crude, to be anything else. It is bleedingly obvious (and there was blood) the will of a person is inextricably stitched into this image of devastating fire. Human labour is literally entangled in this artwork; it shows us as part of the picture, part of nature. And this is good news

Impossible Numbers doesn’t have a victorious ending, or any ending at all. The scroll is not fully unrolled. There is no end in sight: the story isn’t over, it’s ongoing.

In this way it points to the future; a future in which we are not fighting nature. And this is good news too.

If you don’t have a spare 500 hours to process the news into slow news, don’t worry. By the time I finally tied my last knot, I found I had transformed my fear and rage into something tangible, something both magnificent and beautiful (if I do say so myself), no longer about me.

It is now a slow-news story that is no longer about a particular event; something everyone can share. This is why I do the work.

Impossible Numbers is on display as part of The Blake Prize at the Casula Powerhouse, Sydney, until July 7.

This article is part of Making Art Work, our series on what inspires artists and the process of their work.

Tracey Clement does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 15,000 squares, 500 hours, 19 months: how I used embroidery to make sense of Australia’s catastrophic fires – https://theconversation.com/15-000-squares-500-hours-19-months-how-i-used-embroidery-to-make-sense-of-australias-catastrophic-fires-227907

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jochen Kaempf, Associate Professor of Natural Sciences (Oceanography), Flinders University

From around 1996 to 2010, Australia was gripped by the millennium drought. As water shortages bit hard, most of Australia’s capital cities built large seawater desalination plants – Sydney, Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth. Remote towns have also built smaller desalination plants.

Most cities didn’t actually use them much. The drought broke in 2010, and desalinated water is expensive. The exception is Perth, which has been hit by declining rainfall, a drying climate and overuse of groundwater. The city will soon open its third desal plant.

As climate change intensifies, other states are also looking to build more desal plants. In South Australia, for instance, there are plans to build one urgently in response to looming water shortages. The Eyre Peninsula, for instance, is expected to run out of drinking water within two years as groundwater runs dry.

But beyond the expense, many of these plants bring environmental problems of their own.

How does desal work?

A desalination plant pipes in seawater, filters out the salt (usually using a process called “reverse osmosis”), and then flushes the salt back out to sea. This creates plumes of hyper-salty brine.

If you position a desal plant near a strong current, this isn’t a big issue – the salt is quickly diluted. But if you pump brine into a gulf or bay without much natural turnover of water, it can lay waste to entire ecosystems. And unfortunately, South Australia has two large gulfs – and two planned desal plants that could kill off giant cuttlefish or decimate mussel farms.

When BHP Billiton was looking to expand its lucrative Olympic Dam uranium and copper mine in the mid-2000s, it had a problem: not enough water. To solve it, the mining giant announced plans to build a desal plant at Point Lowly, in the upper Spencer Gulf.

This was immediately controversial. Point Lowly is very close to the breeding grounds of the famous giant Australian cuttlefish (Sepia apama), a tourist drawcard.

My research suggested the brine outflow from the desal plant would cause environmental harm to these spectacular breeding grounds.

Despite environmental concerns, the Olympic Dam expansion was eventually approved in 2011, and the approval for the Point Lowly desal plant carried forward to the new Northern Water partnership between the state government and the private sector, which involves BHP as a key player.

This, the government states, is designed to:

provide a new, climate independent water source for the Far North, Upper Spencer Gulf and Eastern Eyre Peninsula regions of South Australia, to enable the growth of industries crucial to achieving net-zero goals, including the emerging green energy and hydrogen industries

The government recently changed the preferred location to Cape Hardy, much further down the Spencer Gulf. From as early as 2028, it will produce up to 260 million litres (megalitres) of desalinated water a day for use in mining and green industries.

A separate smaller desal plant (24 megalitres a day) is also planned for Billy Lights Point near Port Lincoln, to provide water for the lower Eyre Peninsula.

If the government was hoping to avoid controversy by moving away from the cuttlefish, it did not succeed. Opposition has come from the local council, First Nations groups, and fishing and aquaculture industries.

The problem with the location at Billy Lights Point is, once again, what happens to the brine. Salty outflows could damage mussel farms, fisheries and ecosystems.

Super-salty brine is pollution

My research suggests these concerns are well founded.

While we might think brine is harmless – it’s salty, like the sea – this is not correct. Desalination produces brine that is twice as salty as seawater. When you pump it back into the sea, it can form a layer of heavier water that creeps along the seafloor as a so-called brine underflow.

Desal brine can be dangerous, especially in waters that don’t mix rapidly. Without sufficient mixing, the oxygen content of the brine underflow falls over time. Eventually, the brine underflow can turn into a dead zone where very little can survive.

Desalination plants also pump out harmful chemicals with the brine, including pre-treatment chemicals, anti-fouling agents, heavy metals, nutrients, organics, chlorine and acids.

This means we should think very carefully about where to build desalination plants. The Spencer Gulf is full of seagrass meadows, the nurseries of the sea, home to leafy seadragons, giant cuttlefish, king prawns and millions of larval and juvenile fish.

The brine can degrade or even destroy marine ecosystems. In the Arabian Gulf, where about half the world’s desal plants are located, researchers have found the pulses of brine “greatly threatens sensitive species”.

Given this marine pollution, any move to discharge desal brine into calm seas that have high ecological significance and do not flush rapidly is extremely risky.

At present, South Australia’s two planned desal projects do not seem to properly value environmental principles.

For instance, while the large Northern Waters project lists Cape Hardy as the preferred site, Point Lowly is still on the list of options. This ignores previous evidence showing the Spencer Gulf flushes slowly, which means a higher risk of environmental damage. And Cape Hardy is still within valuable and vulnerable marine habitats.

The smaller Port Lincoln desalination plant is expected to be operational by 2026 on Billy Lights Point, which borders Proper Bay and Boston Bay in the lower Spencer Gulf.

These bays are ecologically important, as they provide safe havens to marine larvae. They’re also part of the region’s coastal upwelling, a vital source of nutrients for whales and tuna.

The proposed intake and discharge locations of the Port Lincoln plant are within a few kilometres of valuable mussel and tuna farming operations.

Looking forward

While Cape Hardy is environmentally more suitable for desal discharge than Point Lowly, it is still within the sheltered waters of Spencer Gulf. Hence, some environmental degradation is likely to occur here as well.

If authorities are determined to stick with brine-releasing desal, they should urgently look at sites outside Spencer Gulf, such as Ceduna or Elliston. Here, brine would be quickly diluted by the currents.

But there are other options not yet considered.

It is likely we will need more desalination plants as climate change intensifies. The best solution is a desal plant fully powered by renewables – and without brine discharge. How? By cleaning the brine and turning it into a valuable product: salt.

Read more:
Desalinating seawater sounds easy, but there are cheaper and more sustainable ways to meet people’s water needs

Jochen Kaempf does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. More desalination is coming to Australia’s driest states – but super-salty outflows could trash ecosystems and fisheries – https://theconversation.com/more-desalination-is-coming-to-australias-driest-states-but-super-salty-outflows-could-trash-ecosystems-and-fisheries-229629

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria O’Sullivan, Associate Professor of Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin University

Students have been protesting on university campuses across Australia for several weeks now, calling on their institutions to cut ties with weapons manufacturers supplying arms to Israel. Some have noted their intention to stay for months if necessary.

So far, these protests have been largely peaceful. But there have been concerns about student safety. And universities have become increasingly concerned about some of the terms used by some protesters.

Last week, some university leaders sought advice from Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus about whether they should act to remove protesters (Dreyfus replied that he did not provide legal advice).

Police in Victoria have also expressed concerns about the camps escalating into violence.

This raises important legal questions: what does the law say about protests at universities and at what point could either the police or university authorities remove protesters from their campuses?

Freedom of speech and the right to protest

The right to protest – made up of the freedom of speech and assembly – is a central component of a functioning democracy.

Australian universities are a part of this structure as they are established to facilitate learning, knowledge and debate. Additionally, many universities recognise they should promote critical and free enquiry, informed intellectual discourse and public debate.

Most universities in Australia are public institutions and campuses are open to the public. So students and non-students are permitted on university land to protest.

However, the right to protest is also subject to limitations in human rights law. First, the right to protest is limited to peaceful assemblies.

The United Nations has clarified that the right of peaceful assembly cannot be exercised using violence. This includes acts such as physical force against others that is likely to result in injury or death or serious damage to property.

What about hate speech?

But what about the use of hate speech on campuses? Would this be grounds for closing down the protests? There has been concern about the use of terms such as “intifada” during the protests and phrases such as “from the river to the sea”.

In my view, it would be unlawful under human rights law to close down an entire protest simply on the basis that some protesters are using that language.

Human rights law requires limitations on protests to be reasonable and proportionate. Removing entire encampments could be considered a disproportionate response in this case.

How could individuals respond?

Some Jewish students say they do not feel safe on campuses where these protests are happening.

Individuals can lodge complaints to federal and state human rights commissions about the use of hate speech.

For example, section 18C of the federal Racial Discrimination Act makes it unlawful as a civil matter to “offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate” a person in public on grounds of their race, colour, national origin or ethnicity.

Individuals can make a complaint to the Australian Human Rights Commission, which will investigate the allegation and conduct a conciliation process.

But it does not constitute a criminal offence, which would be grounds to remove the entire protest.

How could police respond?

The powers of police to deal with protests is governed by different state and territory laws. But, generally, police have powers to deal with breaches of the peace and other public disorders.

For instance, in New South Wales, police have special powers to respond to “a riot or other civil disturbance that gives rise to a serious risk to public safety”. Criminal offences such as property damage, assault and physical violence would also allow the police to intervene. So, police could intervene in the protests when criminal acts are taking place.

However, the police would still be expected to react with a proportionate response, and criminal offences by a few protesters would not warrant the removal of the entire encampment.

On top of this, police in the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria and Queensland would be required to consider the human rights charters that exist in those jurisdictions.

At what point could universities limit the protests?

The power of universities to intervene is more complicated. This is because Australian public universities are established under federal and state legislation and so they are not wholly private institutions. This means they are not free to stop people coming onto their property in the same way that a private company is.

But as a place of work, they also have legal obligations to ensure the safety of all people who work and study at their campuses.

In addition, most have academic freedom policies where they commit to allowing freedom of speech on campuses, as well as codes of conduct governing appropriate behaviour, which would apply to staff and students participating in the protests.

So, university heads would need to consider the complexities of all of these laws and policies in planning any intervention.

Essentially, the power of universities to intervene would depend on the nature of the protests.

For example, if the protests are disrupting classes or exams, this would not be grounds to remove the entire encampment, but may empower the university to ask the protesters to move to an area that is less disruptive. Importantly, universities in the ACT, Victoria and Queensland would be obliged to act in accordance with their human rights charters and not act disproportionately when dealing with protesters.

On a practical level, given the numbers of protesters involved, universities would probably need police to help disperse them. They do have university security, but not at the levels required to move protesters safely.

So, if there is going to be any limitation or removal of the protests in a lawful manner, it needs to happen only where necessary, reasonable and proportionate to do so.

Maria O’Sullivan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Can university protest camps be removed? What does the law say? – https://theconversation.com/can-university-protest-camps-be-removed-what-does-the-law-say-229806

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Hail, Adjunct Associate Professor, Torrens University Australia (ref. https://www.torrens.edu.au )

Wolfilser/Shutterstock

This article is part one of The Conversation’s “Business Basics” series where we ask leading experts to discuss key concepts in business, economics and finance.

For the most part, economists continue to believe a story of money told to generations of students by a series of textbooks over the past 150 years.

This story asks us to imagine a pre-monetary barter economy, where people bought goods and services by trading them for other goods and services.

Eventually a suitable commodity – perhaps gold or silver – emerged as both an acceptable means of exchange for conducting trade and a convenient unit of account for expressing value.

Later, coins were issued – eventually to be monopolised by governments – and later still paper money, credit, and banking systems.

The problem with this story is that there is no historical evidence to support it. As was noted by prominent anthropologist Caroline Humphreys:

No example of a barter economy, pure and simple, has ever been described, let alone the emergence from it of money … all available ethnography suggests that there has never been such a thing.

So where did money come from exactly? One difficulty we face is that writing about money – what gives it value, and how monetary systems work – is not something young economists are generally encouraged to do.

As a consequence, among the best articles ever written about money are two now more than 100 years old by British economist Alfred Mitchell-Innes, entitled “What is Money?” and “The Credit Theory of Money”.

These papers, until recently almost completely ignored by the economics profession, tell a different story, rejecting the idea that money evolved naturally from barter.

We can now be confident this version is closer to the truth. And it has big implications for how we think about the role of governments within monetary systems, and what gives money value. Acknowledging the true story of money would force a paradigm shift among economists – no wonder a lot of them don’t want to think about it.

Actually, early governments invented money

The truth is that money predates markets. Governments invented money – it did not emerge independently from pre-existing barter systems.

Market economies simply could not develop until money existed. For much of history, the currency tokens people regarded as money had little or no intrinsic value, taking the form of clay tablets, hazelwood tally sticks, base metals, shells or paper.

The earliest forms of what Keynes called “modern money” – to distinguish it from gift tokens used for ceremonial purposes in communal groups – go back to the origins of taxation, accounting, and even literacy and numeracy. These early currencies were units of account used to assess the tributes that had to be paid to early governmental institutions in the Middle East.

The word shekel is still used as a currency unit, but dates to ancient Babylon and the emergence of money itself, over 5,000 years ago.

The idea that the need to pay taxes is what creates a demand for a currency was well understood by colonial governments. They knew how to introduce their currencies into countries they had invaded. To force locals to supply labour or goods to the government, they imposed a tax liability – often, a hut tax. This tax could only be paid using the currency of the colony.

Locals had to either work for the colonial government or supply goods to others who did, else they wouldn’t have the specific currency needed to pay taxes. This created a demand for the colonial power’s currency, which the government could then spend.

If such a government spent more overall than it withdrew in taxation – running a budget deficit – the community could add the remaining currency to its savings. Taxation and the legal system created a demand for the government’s money and provided the impetus for the development of a monetary economy.

Even today, it’s the tax system that drives the monetary system. Demand for a government’s money is guaranteed because people need it to pay federal taxes.

But banks create money too

Actual physical cash makes up a tiny proportion of the money in circulation. Most of what we regard as money is held in our bank deposits, effectively a bunch of numbers on a ledger. Most of these bank deposits are created by banks when they make loans to us, and this is not government money at all – it is private money, created by the banks themselves.

When a bank makes a loan to you, that loan becomes an asset for the bank, because you have to pay it back with interest. But at the same time, the loan appears as a deposit of funds in your account, which is a liability for the bank. Technically, you both owe each other.

On paper, this means there’s now money in the system that wasn’t there before. The bank hasn’t actually lent you someone else’s money, the loan deposited in your account represents an IOU to the bank’s other depositors.

Both the loan and the deposit are created by the bank, using nothing more than a computer keyboard. The bank has promised to use its holdings of government money to make payments on your behalf, including tax payments to the government, or to provide you with government money in the form of physical cash.

As economist Hyman Minsky once said, “anyone can create money – the problem lies in getting it accepted”.

Obviously, private banks don’t issue government currency. The Commonwealth government and its agent, the Reserve Bank of Australia, sit at the top of our own monetary system.

Government-issued currency will always have value because it’s the unit of account needed to assess and pay our taxes. How much value the currency holds depends on how much the economy produces, how difficult it is to obtain the currency and on how much tax we have to pay.

Here is some food for thought. If we accept that money and markets did not emerge naturally but had to be created by governmental institutions and legal systems, this means that there is no such thing as a genuinely free market, no such thing as a natural rate of unemployment, and no such thing as a natural distribution of income and wealth.

The theory that money emerged naturally in the private sector encourages people to believe that free markets are natural systems in which governments only interfere. But in truth, early governments invented the very institutions of money and markets, and the regulatory frameworks that determined how those markets work and in whose interests.

Exchange economies have always depended on systems of law and they always will. The more pertinent question concerns who writes those laws – and in whose interests those regulations are applied.

I helped the director of Finding the Money on an Australian tour in March 2024. I have no financial stake in the film, however.

– ref. Where did money come from? – https://theconversation.com/where-did-money-come-from-229481

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julian Koplin, Lecturer in Bioethics, Monash University & Honorary fellow, Melbourne Law School, Monash University

If you search Google Scholar for the phrase “as an AI language model”, you’ll find plenty of AI research literature and also some rather suspicious results. For example, one paper on agricultural technology says:

As an AI language model, I don’t have direct access to current research articles or studies. However, I can provide you with an overview of some recent trends and advancements …

Obvious gaffes like this aren’t the only signs that researchers are increasingly turning to generative AI tools when writing up their research. A recent study examined the frequency of certain words in academic writing (such as “commendable”, “meticulously” and “intricate”), and found they became far more common after the launch of ChatGPT – so much so that 1% of all journal articles published in 2023 may have contained AI-generated text.

(Why do AI models overuse these words? There is speculation it’s because they are more common in English as spoken in Nigeria, where key elements of model training often occur.)

The aforementioned study also looks at preliminary data from 2024, which indicates that AI writing assistance is only becoming more common. Is this a crisis for modern scholarship, or a boon for academic productivity?

Who should take credit for AI writing?

Many people are worried by the use of AI in academic papers. Indeed, the practice has been described as “contaminating” scholarly literature.

Some argue that using AI output amounts to plagiarism. If your ideas are copy-pasted from ChatGPT, it is questionable whether you really deserve credit for them.

But there are important differences between “plagiarising” text authored by humans and text authored by AI. Those who plagiarise humans’ work receive credit for ideas that ought to have gone to the original author.

By contrast, it is debatable whether AI systems like ChatGPT can have ideas, let alone deserve credit for them. An AI tool is more like your phone’s autocomplete function than a human researcher.

The question of bias

Another worry is that AI outputs might be biased in ways that could seep into the scholarly record. Infamously, older language models tended to portray people who are female, black and/or gay in distinctly unflattering ways, compared with people who are male, white and/or straight.

This kind of bias is less pronounced in the current version of ChatGPT.

However, other studies have found a different kind of bias in ChatGPT and other large language models: a tendency to reflect a left-liberal political ideology.

Any such bias could subtly distort scholarly writing produced using these tools.

The hallucination problem

The most serious worry relates to a well-known limitation of generative AI systems: that they often make serious mistakes.

For example, when I asked ChatGPT-4 to generate an ASCII image of a mushroom, it provided me with the following output.

   .--'|
   /___^ |     .--.
       ) |    /    
      / |   |      |
     |   `-._    /
             `~~`
      `-..._____.-`

It then confidently told me I could use this image of a “mushroom” for my own purposes.

These kinds of overconfident mistakes have been referred to as “AI hallucinations” and “AI bullshit”. While it is easy to spot that the above ASCII image looks nothing like a mushroom (and quite a bit like a snail), it may be much harder to identify any mistakes ChatGPT makes when surveying scientific literature or describing the state of a philosophical debate.

Unlike (most) humans, AI systems are fundamentally unconcerned with the truth of what they say. If used carelessly, their hallucinations could corrupt the scholarly record.

Should AI-produced text be banned?

One response to the rise of text generators has been to ban them outright. For example, Science – one of the world’s most influential academic journals – disallows any use of AI-generated text.

I see two problems with this approach.

The first problem is a practical one: current tools for detecting AI-generated text are highly unreliable. This includes the detector created by ChatGPT’s own developers, which was taken offline after it was found to have only a 26% accuracy rate (and a 9% false positive rate). Humans also make mistakes when assessing whether something was written by AI.

It is also possible to circumvent AI text detectors. Online communities are actively exploring how to prompt ChatGPT in ways that allow the user to evade detection. Human users can also superficially rewrite AI outputs, effectively scrubbing away the traces of AI (like its overuse of the words “commendable”, “meticulously” and “intricate”).

The second problem is that banning generative AI outright prevents us from realising these technologies’ benefits. Used well, generative AI can boost academic productivity by streamlining the writing process. In this way, it could help further human knowledge. Ideally, we should try to reap these benefits while avoiding the problems.

The problem is poor quality control, not AI

The most serious problem with AI is the risk of introducing unnoticed errors, leading to sloppy scholarship. Instead of banning AI, we should try to ensure that mistaken, implausible or biased claims cannot make it onto the academic record.

After all, humans can also produce writing with serious errors, and mechanisms such as peer review often fail to prevent its publication.

We need to get better at ensuring academic papers are free from serious mistakes, regardless of whether these mistakes are caused by careless use of AI or sloppy human scholarship. Not only is this more achievable than policing AI usage, it will improve the standards of academic research as a whole.

This would be (as ChatGPT might say) a commendable and meticulously intricate solution.

Julian Koplin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. AI-assisted writing is quietly booming in academic journals. Here’s why that’s OK – https://theconversation.com/ai-assisted-writing-is-quietly-booming-in-academic-journals-heres-why-thats-ok-229416

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin O’Brien, Associate Professor, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University

University campuses around the world have become the site of tiny tent cities in recent weeks, with student activists protesting the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Though the protests on Australian campuses have been largely peaceful, tensions are starting to rise. There have been allegations of hate speech and clashes between student groups in recent days. And in the US, there have been disturbing scenes of police interventions to break up similar protests nationwide.

The students, and many others, are protesting the loss of life and worsening conditions in the current Gaza conflict. Many Israeli hostages taken in last year’s assault by Hamas have yet to be returned, while the Palestinian death toll from the Israel Defence Forces’ response is believed to have exceeded 34,000. Many Palestinians are also experiencing what the United Nations has termed a “full-blown famine”.

The situation in Gaza is undoubtedly severe and requires urgent international attention and a peaceful resolution. Yet it is not the only armed conflict or humanitarian crisis in the world – far from it.

Why, then, has the Gaza war generated such passionate and sustained interest, particularly among young people? Why are people motivated to protest on this specific issue, but not others?

A strong narrative that shocks us

There are many factors that explain why people choose to protest. Personal, family or community impacts are strong motivations to become an activist. But even for those without an obvious connection to a cause, news coverage and stories shared to social media can be enough to catalyse action.

Researchers have found some stories or narratives are more effective than others at mobilising political activism. In the case of the Gaza war, I believe three factors in the narrative have helped fuel the significant protest movements we are seeing globally.

First, narratives are powerful motivators of action when they combine elements of what social movements scholars call “breach” and “resonance”.

A crisis narrative, like the one in Gaza, attracts and holds people’s attention because it shocks us. It represents a “breach” with our expectations of how life should be and what we deem acceptable.

A powerful narrative must also be “culturally resonant”, which means it is consistent with our understanding of how the world works. That is to say, it must reflect a familiar story.

The images of children and families who have been harmed by the Gaza war tell a horrific, yet recognisable, tale. And this has motivated protesters to act to try to right the wrong, and correct the breach.

The recognition of an ‘ideal victim’

Second, protesters are often motivated to engage in collective action to defend or protect an “ideal victim”.

While the term “ideal victim” is far from ideal, the concept itself is ever-present in awareness campaigns and protest movements, due to the power of this central figure to compel action. In academic terms, ideal victims are those seen as being innocent and powerless.

Historically, campaigns on behalf of the Palestinian people have not achieved the same support or urgency that we are seeing now. In the current Gaza conflict, the military strength of the Israel Defence Forces, contrasted with the vulnerability of the civilian population in places like Rafah, highlights the “ideal victim” in need of protesters’ urgent actions.

Of course, there are many “ideal victims” in conflicts and crises around the world whose stories are not catalysing collective action.

This is, in part, because their stories are not being showcased through news outlets and on social media. While the “ideal victim” must be recognised as powerless, they must also be able to tell their story to motivate others to act, either themselves or through their advocates. Many victims of conflict are rendered invisible by inattention.

Read more:
Divesting university endowments: Easier demanded than done

The ability to have a tangible impact

Third, protest or collective action is often more sustained when there is a clear call to action and activists can see a role for themselves within the narrative.

The “real time” nature and urgency of the Gaza war is an important motivator for action. While the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not new, the current situation has played out in front of our eyes since October, when Israelis were kidnapped and killed in the Hamas assault and the government responded with military force.

With a ground assault on Rafah seemingly now imminent, activists may be motivated by the sense this is a critical juncture in the conflict where their protest may have a real impact.

The motivation to protest also rises exponentially when other types of activism fail to bring change. For example, when political leaders ignore petitions and representations from community groups, protest movements emerge. And when legislatures fail to act, protesters call for action from others.

In the current protests, for instance, many students are calling for their universities to divest from weapons manufacturers profiting from the conflict, or Israeli companies linked more broadly with the occupied West Bank and Gaza, as a symbolic protest.

This is part of the wider boycott, divest and sanction (or BDS) campaign, which uses political consumerism and political investorism as protest tactics.

The conflict in Gaza may seem intractable, but the divestment demand gives protesters an achievable aim with a localised target – their own universities. Protesting at this important time, with an achievable demand, allows activists to write themselves into the narrative. They can contribute something to the push for peace.

Read more:
What students protesting Israel’s Gaza siege want — and how their demands on divestment fit into the BDS movement

In recent days, this action has led to tangible results. Trinity College Dublin in Ireland agreed to divest from three Israeli companies linked to settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories. After the university made the announcement, students began dismantling their protest camp.

Protest is not always about achieving specific demands, though. Protests also have significant symbolic value in raising awareness and bringing others to the cause. Whether student protesters are motivated by powerful stories, a need to protect victims or the chance to have an impact, they exemplify a wider narrative message that protesting for peace is a worthwhile pursuit.

Erin O’Brien receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with the Australian Political Studies Association and the T.J. Ryan Foundation.

– ref. What is it about Gaza? Wars are raging around the world, so why are young people so passionate about this one? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-it-about-gaza-wars-are-raging-around-the-world-so-why-are-young-people-so-passionate-about-this-one-229499

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Holly Seale, Associate Professor, School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney

Australia’s childhood immunisation program gets very good uptake every year – almost 94% of five-year-olds have had all their routine vaccinations. But our influenza vaccine coverage doesn’t get such a good report card.

Looking back over recent years, for kids aged six months to five years, we saw a peak in flu vaccine coverage at the beginning of the COVID pandemic at 46%, which then declined to 30% by the 2023 season.

While we’re still relatively early in the 2024 flu season, only 7% of children under five have received their flu shot this year so far.

Although young children are a particular concern, flu vaccination rates appear to be lagging for the population as a whole. Reports indicate that from March 1 to April 28, 16% fewer people were vaccinated against the flu compared with the same period last year.

So what’s going on, and what can we do to boost uptake?

Why do we vaccinate kids against the flu?

Last year, reported cases of flu were highest in children aged five to nine, followed by those aged zero to four. This is not a new trend – we record a high number of flu cases and hospital admissions in kids every year. So far this year children aged zero to four have had the highest number of infections, marginally ahead of five- to nine-year-olds.

While kids are more likely to catch and spread the flu, they’re also at greater risk of getting very sick from it. This particularly applies to children under five, and the flu vaccine is available for free for this age group.

The flu vaccine isn’t perfect – it may not prevent infections entirely – but it’s definitely our best chance of protection. Research has shown influenza-related visits to the GP were more than halved in vaccinated children compared with unvaccinated children.

So why are kids not receiving the vaccine?

Often, it comes down to misunderstandings about who is eligible for the vaccine or whom it’s recommended for. But we can address this issue by nudging people via a text message reminder.

Some parents report concerns about the vaccine, including the old dogma that it can cause the flu. The flu vaccine can’t give you the flu because it doesn’t contain live virus. Unfortunately, that myth is really sticky.

For some parents, the challenge can be forgetting to book or accessing an appointment.

It’s not just kids at higher risk

Adults aged 65 and over are also more vulnerable to the flu, and can receive a free vaccine. For this group, we usually get around 65% vaccinated. So far this year, around 35% of over-65s have received their flu vaccine.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are likewise eligible for a free flu vaccine. While previously coverage rates were higher among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples compared to the overall population, this gap has narrowed. There’s even some movement backwards, especially in younger age groups.

The flu vaccine is also free for pregnant women and anyone who has a medical condition such as heart disease, chronic lung disease, diabetes or kidney disease.

Past studies have found flu vaccine coverage for pregnant women varies around the country from 39% to 76% (meaning in some jurisdictions up to 60% of pregnant women are not getting vaccinated). When it comes to adults with chronic health conditions, we don’t have a good sense of how many people receive the vaccine.

The reasons adults don’t always get the flu vaccine overlap with the reasons for children. Often concerns about side effects are cited as the reason for not getting vaccinated, followed by time constraints.

We also know accessing medical services can be difficult for some people, such as those living in rural areas or experiencing financial hardship.

Filling the gaps

In Australia, GPs offer flu vaccines for all ages, while flu vaccination is also available at pharmacies, generally from age five and up.

While some people make a conscious decision not to get themselves or their children vaccinated, for many people, the barriers are related to access.

Programs offering vaccination outside the doctor’s office are increasing globally, and may assist in filling gaps, especially among those who don’t have regular access to a GP.

For some people, their only point of contact with the medical system may be during emergency department visits. Others may have more regular contact with a specialist who coordinates their medical care, rather than a GP.

Offering vaccine education and programs in these settings has been shown to improve immunisation rates and may play a pivotal role in filling access gaps.

Outside medical and pharmacy settings, the workplace is the most common place for Australian adults to receive their flu vaccine. A survey showed Australian adults find workplace vaccination convenient and cost-effective, especially where free or subsidised vaccines are offered.

Expanding vaccination settings, such as with drive-through and mobile clinics, can benefit groups who have unique access barriers or are under-served. Meanwhile, offering vaccination through faith-based organisations has been shown to improve uptake among racial and ethnic minority groups.

Eleftheria Lentakis, a masters student at the School of Population Health at UNSW Sydney, contributed to this article.

Holly Seale is an investigator on research studies funded by NHMRC and has previously received funding from NSW Ministry of Health, as well as from Sanofi Pasteur, Moderna and Pfizer for investigator driven research and consulting fees.

– ref. Too many Australians aren’t getting a flu vaccine. Why, and what can we do about it? – https://theconversation.com/too-many-australians-arent-getting-a-flu-vaccine-why-and-what-can-we-do-about-it-229477

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

As it looks to an election next year when holding up Labor’s female vote will be vital, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declared Tuesday will bring “a budget for mums and middle Australia”.

“The primary focus of our economic plan is to help ease inflation and the cost of living, with a big focus on delivering more help for middle Australia and more help for mums,” Chalmers said on Sunday, in rhetoric targeted to match mothers’ day.

“Whether it is a bigger tax cut for more than 90% of women, paying superannuation on paid parental leave, wiping HELP debt, or funding wage increases in aged care and childcare, the women of Australia will be big beneficiaries of the budget.”

While women will be a prime political target, economically the budget – the Albanese government’s third – will be substantially judged on its implications for inflation.

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock stressed this last week, when she flagged the bank would lift rates if that became necessary. The government needs a rate cut before the election.

New forecasts released by Chalmers on Sunday show inflation has moderated faster than treasury expected in its December mid-year budget update. Then, treasury forecast inflation to be 3.75% through to the June quarter 2024. The most recent annual figure showed inflation already ahead of this forecast, at 3.6% through the year to the March quarter. The budget now has annual inflation at 3.5% through the year to the June quarter 2024.

The government said its cost-of-living policies were helping the moderation in inflation.

“As a result of our policies. Treasury is forecasting that headline inflation could return to the [Reserve Bank] target band [2-3%] by the end of 2024. This would be earlier than the 2025 timeframe they forecast” in the mid-year update.

While the new forecasts show inflation returning to the Reserve Bank’s target band slightly sooner than the December forecasts, they show it remaining higher for longer – staying at 2.75% in the year to June 2026, rather than falling to 2.5% as forecast in December.

Both sets of forecasts are good deal more optimistic than the Reserve Bank’s forecasts released on Tuesday last week.

These have inflation staying above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band until late 2025. The forecasts in Tuesday’s budget will have it returning to the top of the target band late this year.

In the papers accompanying the release of its inflation forecasts, the bank said the unwinding of legislated electricity rebates was expected to add 0.25 percentage points to year-ended headline inflation in the year to December.

Any decision in the budget to extend or replace the rebates would mitigate this effect, taking pressure off inflation. Some energy cost relief is expected although Chalmers has indicated it is likely to differ from the earlier relief.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has credited the increases in Commonwealth rent assistance in the 2023 budget with taking 1.7 percentage points off the rent increases in the consumer price index, producing recorded increases of 7.8% in the year to March this year instead of 9.5%.

Any further increase in rent assistance in this budget will take further pressure off increases. Some more help is expected although it could be less than. last year.

Chalmers said the difference between the Reserve Bank and budget forecasts on inflation was due to the bank’s figures coming before the budget and so not taking its measures into account.

The budget downgrades growth forecasts compared to the mid year update. Real GDP is forecast to grow 2% in 2024-25 and 2.25% in 2025-26. This is a quarter of a percentage point lower in both years than in the December update.

The budget papers say there is “considerable uncertainty around the outlook for the domestic and global economy”. Given the uncertainty about inflation, forecasting is even more difficult than usual.

Emphasising how the budget will assist women, Chalmers said the recently announced decision to pay superannuation on Commonwealth paid parental leave will cost $1.1 billion over four years from 2024-25, and an ongoing $623.1 million a year.

Of the about $3 billion in HELP debt expected to be written off under the rejigged indexation arrangements, about $1.75 billion is expected to be written off for women.

The budget will also make a multi-billion dollar provision towards wage increases for early childhood education and aged care workers. But details will be settled later and there will be phase in arrangements.

Chalmers told Sky he expected the government would run full term – the election is due by May next year – and he would deliver a fourth budget before it.

“The reason why that is less relevant to me than you might anticipate is because what I’ve tried to do with this budget […] is to make the budget right for he economic cycle rather than the political cycle.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. “A budget for mums and middle Australia’: Jim Chalmers – https://theconversation.com/a-budget-for-mums-and-middle-australia-jim-chalmers-229887