Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael O’Keefe, Director, Master of International Relations, Department of Politics, Media and Philosophy, La Trobe University

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may be attempting to backpedal from a “hot mic” moment at the Pacific Islands Forum this week in which he joked the United States “go halvies” on a new regional policing agreement.

But putting aside any awkwardness, the deal itself represents a significant diplomatic victory for Australia, as well as a security win for the Pacific.

The geopolitical rivalry between China and Australia, the United States and their allies has been encroaching on all aspects of regional diplomacy, and Pacific leaders came into this meeting wanting to refocus the agenda.

And one of the most important issues to the Pacific is transnational crime. With drug cartels from Latin America using Fiji and other Pacific nations as a transit point for drugs entering Australia and New Zealand, transnational crime now sits alongside climate change as the top two regional priorities.

In January, three tonnes of methamphetamine were seized in Fiji. If delivered to markets in Australia and New Zealand, it could have been valued at hundreds of millions of dollars.

Asian crime syndicates and outlaw motorcycle gangs from Australia and New Zealand are also present in some countries, bringing other crimes, such as human trafficking, prostitution and scamming operations.

In June, Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka told Pacific leaders:

We know that crime and criminal groups do not respect borders. Rather, they manipulate borders with their business model. Cybercriminals ignore borders altogether.

What the new policing agreement will do

This is why this week’s headline announcement of a A$400 million Australian-funded Pacific Policing Initiative is so vital. It’s a comprehensive program designed by Pacific police to meet the increasing threat of transnational crime.

There are three main pillars to the agreement, which will establish:

• four new policing centres providing specialist training across the region

• a Pacific policing support group able to deploy trained officers to countries for major events or to respond to crises

• a Pacific policing coordination hub in Brisbane that will have access to Australian Federal Police facilities for training.

Albanese has been keen to emphasise the idea was developed as a collaborative effort by Pacific police chiefs.

Unlike previous bilateral efforts involving Australia, this initiative will be truly regional. And despite some apprehensions about the geopolitical impact of the deal, the consensus among Pacific leaders is the initiative will be highly beneficial.

Papua New Guinea’s prime minister, James Marape, described it as “a concept that is born from within”.

The entire Pacific is the biggest unpoliced space in planet earth. […] it is really important that we come together in this manner.

Spiralling drug use and HIV infections

The threats from transnational criminals are framed as a problem thrust on the region from outside. These organised crime groups are only interested in the strategic value of the Pacific as a waypoint in their distribution networks.

These criminals are also taking advantage of gaps in the Pacific policing capacity and the vulnerability of regional police to corruption.

Unfortunately, the side effect of being a transshipment hub is rising drug use in many Pacific nations themselves, with associated social and health problems such as sex work and HIV infections.

The number of new HIV cases in Fiji, in particular, is surging at an alarming rate. As one UN official said:

It’s a serious concern, we are seeing young people, teenagers, dying of HIV today and that’s shocking. […] We are seeing 10-year-olds, 12-year-olds coming in to clinics testing positive because of drug use.

Read more:
Meth addiction, HIV and a struggling health system are causing a perfect storm in Fiji

The geopolitics behind the deal

Responding so comprehensively to this need will also ensure Australia is viewed as the “partner of choice” for at least a generation of Pacific police.

Many Pacific leaders feel Australia has struggled over the years to deliver a satisfactory response to their concerns over climate change. The policing initiative, however, is an example of Australia delivering on a promise. This will likely give Canberra a boost in its ongoing battle with China for influence.

The deal builds on Australia’s successful military diplomacy in the Pacific in recent years. Canberra has funded key defence infrastructure, such as the Lombrum and Blackrock bases in PNG and Fiji, respectively, and delivered military equipment, such as patrol boats and bushmaster vehicles.

These are practical examples of Canberra using the tools of statecraft at its disposal to achieve its national interests – namely crowding out
Chinese influence in this strategic area.

The policing agreement stands in sharp contrast to China’s failure to negotiate a regional security agreement of its own in 2022.

Of course, there is some wariness over the deal. Vanuatu Prime Minister Charlot Salwai said he wanted to ensure the policing initiative is “framed to fit our purposes and not developed to suit the geostrategic interests and geo-strategic denial security postures of our big partners”.

Under the agreement, each Pacific government can decide how it chooses to participate in the initiative. The response from the Solomon Islands, which has signed a controversial police deal with China, will now be watched closely in Canberra.

In short, the Pacific Policing Initiative is good public policy and diplomacy. It will certainly improve the fight against transitional crime by providing regional police with the resources and expertise they need.

Success on policing shouldn’t breed complacency, however. Australia has a long way to go to meet Pacific expectations on climate change. No doubt China will be searching to gain an advantage in this area.

Michael O’Keefe has received funding from the Australian Army Research Centre.

– ref. ‘Hot mic’ moment aside, the Albanese government’s Pacific policing deal is a masterstroke of diplomacy – https://theconversation.com/hot-mic-moment-aside-the-albanese-governments-pacific-policing-deal-is-a-masterstroke-of-diplomacy-237663

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liam Moore, Lecturer in International Politics and Policy, James Cook University

This week, one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters went to a meeting of island states strongly affected by human-induced climate change.

Or, in more conventional language, Australian leaders attended the annual Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga.

Since 1971, this forum has been the top diplomatic meeting for Pacific nations, including Australia and New Zealand. Security was on the agenda this year, against a backdrop of geopolitical manoeuvring and unrest in New Caledonia. But one issue made its presence felt above all else: climate change.

At the forum’s opening, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres made that clear:

There is an enormous injustice in relation to the Pacific and it’s the reason I am here […] The small islands don’t contribute to climate change but everything that happens because of climate change is multiplied here.

Australia is walking a difficult line at the summit. Pointing to our domestic green energy progress isn’t enough. Our neighbours are focused on Australia’s emergence as the world’s second largest exporter of fossil fuel emissions and steady opening of more gas and coal fields. Even as Australia’s climate and migration pact with Tuvalu came into effect, Tuvalu’s climate change minister, Maina Talia, called for an end to the “immoral and unacceptable” acts of opening new mines, continuing fossil fuel subsidies and exporting fossil fuels.

Australian leaders hope to co-host the world’s top climate talks in 2026 in partnership with Pacific Island nations. While some Pacific leaders are opposed to co-hosting without an Australian pledge to end new goal and gas projects, others see it as a way Australia can show it is truly part of the “Pacific family”.

What happened at the forum?

A big-ticket item at this year’s forum was the Falepili Union, a pact between Australia and Tuvalu signed last year and coming into effect at the forum. Minister for International Development and the Pacific, Pat Conroy, claimed it was the

most significant agreement between Australia and one of its Pacific partners since the agreements for Papua New Guinea’s independence in 1975.

The pact allows 280 Tuvaluans a year to move to Australia, whilst committing Australia to funding climate adaptation work and disaster response efforts on the islands. Significantly, the treaty also states Australia will recognise the statehood of Tuvalu — even if it were to be submerged due to climate change.

In return, Tuvalu and Australia will agree “together” on any arrangements involving Tuvalu’s security or defence. Effectively, this gives Australia the extraordinary ability to block any actions of Tuvalu it feels do not serve its regional interests. This is significant, as China seeks to expand its influence in the Pacific.

At the leaders forum on Thursday, the joint bid to host the 31st United Nations climate conference is expected to be discussed. It’s not guaranteed, as Türkiye has also put in a bid. Pacific leaders have made it clear they will push hard for Australia to go beyond efforts to cut local emissions.

What else might we see?

Analysts have been closely watching how New Zealand leaders approach the forum. While New Zealand has very strong connections to the Pacific and has been actively supporting climate adaptation work in many Pacific nations, the new right wing government is showing signs of backing away from domestic climate efforts.

At the forum, New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, drew attention for downplaying the human role in changing the climate and claiming some Pacific islands are actually growing.

Are island nations united? Not on everything. But on climate, they have learned the power of speaking with a united voice. In recent years, Pacific nations have become the new face of climate diplomacy. At the 2022 Sharm el-Sheikh climate talks in Egypt, Pacific nations were visible and effective in their push to secure better promises of funding to cover loss and damage done by climate change.

Pacific expert George Carter this week described the effective Pacific approach: inviting Australia to be more active as a member of the Pacific family while at the same time pressing us to cut reliance on fossil fuels.

Pacific leaders have consistently said they are willing to take their allegiances elsewhere if high-level rhetoric does not turn into action. In 2019, former Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama claimed climate reluctance by Australia’s Morrison government would push Pacific nations closer to China.

This is because adapting to sea level rise is expensive, and Pacific nations are small.

Vanuatu, for instance, was the first nation to figure out how much climate adaption would cost them. The answer: A$260 million by 2030 just to respond to loss and damage. To phase out fossil fuels and decarbonise the nation in addition to adaptation projects would cost $1.75 billion — a staggering amount for a small country.

Vanuatu is already the world’s most disaster-prone nation. Rising to the challenge of protecting shorelines and relocating villages comes on top of that.

Fiji has completed six climate-related community relocations to date. According to the government, 42 more need immediate help and another 800 will need assistance soon. Without external funding, the need will soon dwarf what the government can offer.

What’s next?

For the Pacific, climate change is everything. When Guterres talked about moving away from fossil fuels, many observers took that to be a comment aimed at Australia.

It’s unlikely Australia can keep the Pacific onside with bilateral pacts, regional policing initiatives or by pointing to domestic efforts to go green and achieve net-zero later. For the Pacific, the future is now. Climate change is lapping at their shores, and future promises are worth very little.

Liam Moore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Talk isn’t enough: Pacific nations say Australia must end new fossil fuel projects – https://theconversation.com/talk-isnt-enough-pacific-nations-say-australia-must-end-new-fossil-fuel-projects-237749

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mia Cobb, Research Fellow, Animal Welfare Science Centre, The University of Melbourne

Labradoodles, puggles, dorgis, cavoodles, cavapoos: whatever you call them, there’s no escaping the explosion of designer crossbreeds parading along our streets and through our dog parks these days.

People have flocked to these hybrid dogs as the health problems associated with pedigree breeds became more widely known. As the theory goes, crossbreed designer dogs are more genetically diverse, so are less likely to suffer the health issues plaguing purebreds.

But are these designer mixes actually healthier than their purebred cousins? This was the question researchers from the United Kingdom’s Royal Veterinary College set out to answer in a new paper published overnight.

The study focused on three common poodle crossbreeds: pockapoos, labradoodles and cavapoos. It found they were no more or less healthy than their pure-breed counterparts. The researchers hope the findings will help dog owners make more informed, evidence-based decisions when selecting their next furry friend.

Designer crosbreeds

Most dogs alive today were not bred under human control. Regardless, humans have created more than 400 modern dog breeds in around 200 years, each with their own looks and temperaments.

Some popular dog breeds, such as the golden retriever, have mixed-breed origin stories. However, many are “pedigree dogs” bred from a limited gene pool.

Advocates for purebred dogs say they have more predictable health, behaviour and appearance. And many pedigree registers no longer permit the inclusion of crossbreed dogs.

Over time, however, this lack of genetic diversity among purebreds has led to
extreme body types and serious welfare problems for many dogs.

To overcome these issues, some breeders have turned to “out-crossing”: deliberately mating two dogs from different breeds. The goal is to dilute inherited physical or behaviour problems, producing healthier puppies. The aspiration being that the offspring will prove more robust than their parents, also known as “hybrid vigour”.

This has led to a rise in “designer crossbreeds”. In particular, poodles have been crossed with other breeds, such as:

• the cavalier King Charles spaniel-cross, known as the cavoodle in Australia and cavapoo in the United Kingdom

• the cocker spaniel-cross, known as the spoodle in Australia and cockapoo in the UK

• The labrador retriever-cross, known as the labradoodle. This mix was originally bred by an Australian, to create a non-allergenic guide dog.

Oodles of health issues?

The research from the Royal Veterinary College involved a survey of about 9,400 people.

Some owned a cross-bred dog – either a cockapoo (spoodle), cavapoo (cavoodle) or labradoodle. Others owned one of their purebred “progenitor” or founder breeds – either a cavalier King Charles spaniel, cocker spaniel, labrador retriever or poodle. All dogs were aged under five years.

The authors tested the assumption that designer crossbreeds have less chance of suffering common disorders compared to their founder breeds.

They compared odds for the 57 most common health disorders across the three designer crossbreeds with each of their founding (progenitor) breeds. In all, 342 comparisons were made.

Common health issues included eye and ear infections, diarrhoea, and cruciate ligament rupture.

And the results? The poodle-cross dogs and comparable founder-breed dogs shared health outcomes 87% of the time.

Crossbreeds were more likely to experience a small number of disorders (7%). But they were less likely to experience a small number (6%) of other disorders.

Overall, there was no compelling evidence in these poodle crossbreeds of “hybrid vigour”. There was also no evidence purebreds were significantly healthier than the designer crossbreed dogs.

What does this all mean?

The authors concluded that, given their results, prospective dog owners wondering which dog to buy should consider other factors such as breeding conditions, temperament and the health of a puppy’s parents.

The study focused only on young adult dogs. Crossbreeding may bring health benefits that don’t emerge until later in life. So a study that repeats these questions when the dogs are seniors would help us understand how designer crossbreeds age, and identify risk factors so we can help them age well.

Importantly, the study only looked at three types of crossbreeds, all involving poodles. Other designer crossbreeds may experience better health than their purebred cousins.

For example, flat-faced dogs such as pugs and French bulldogs are likely to experience breathlessness and skin and eye problems. Crossing these breeds with other dogs would reintroduce a proper muzzle to their face, bringing health and welfare advantages.

Who could dogs be?

All this raises important questions. Where do the animals in our lives come from? How are they bred, and is this information transparent? Are we OK with current breeding practices? And if not, what must change?

It stands to reason that, when searching for the perfect canine companion, we want one that will be healthy, long-lived, and happy to live with us.

These attributes are good for the dog. They are also good for their people. A healthy dog means fewer vet bills. Longer-lived equals more time shared together, and living happily with us translates to less stress, and a better quality of life for everyone in the home.

So how do we find that dog?

Some European countries mandate that dogs must meet strict physical, genetic and behaviour requirements before being registered and used for breeding. This requires a nationally consistent licensing regime and well-resourced enforcement – both of which are lacking in Australia.

What ultimately controls if dogs are healthy, long-lived and happy is us. Breeders decide which dogs to mate. Dog lovers decide which puppy to buy. And when we vote, we help decide how governments regulate the breeding industry.

For the sake of our canine friends, I hope we choose well.

Mia Cobb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New research busts the myth that crossbred ‘designer dogs’ are healthier than pedigrees – https://theconversation.com/new-research-busts-the-myth-that-crossbred-designer-dogs-are-healthier-than-pedigrees-237648

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute

Every year, authorities release a snapshot of how reliable our electricity supply will be in the coming decade. And each time, commentators have divergent takes on what it all means.

So it is with the latest reliability snapshot released by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on Thursday. Essentially, the report says the national electricity grid – which serves the five eastern states and the ACT – is in a better place than last year. But we’re not out of the woods.

Media coverage interpreted the findings in vastly different ways. Some claimed it was good news for future energy reliability. Others suggested the Albanese government’s renewables strategy had created the risk of power shortages for years to come.

So let’s take a closer look at how the forecast should be understood, and what it means for Australian electricity users.

What has changed since last year?

AEMO manages the nation’s electricity and gas systems and markets. Its annual outlook is known formally as an “electricity statement of opportunities”.

AEMO looks at what’s in the investment pipeline for the next decade, in terms of electricity generation, transmission and storage. It then tests if this combination of assets is able to maintain the reliability of the grid. A potential shortfall is a warning that, without further investment, homes and businesses could suffer electricity shortages.

Last year’s forecast warned of a need for more investment, particularly for transmission lines, to deliver a reliable electricity supply. So what’s changed this time around?

AEMO says the outlook for energy reliability has improved. It pointed to progress on an extra 5.7 gigawatts (GW) of new generation and storage developments since last year. These include:

• 3.9GW of battery storage
• 1.2GW of large-scale solar
• about 400 megawatts (MW) of wind power
• 365 kilometres of transmission connections.

The improved forecast also takes account of a two-year extension in the life of the Eraring coal plant in New South Wales and the ongoing rapid increase in rooftop solar capacity. Other projects making progress include a 750MW gas plant in NSW’s Hunter Valley and pumped hydro storage including Snowy 2.0.

In 2023, investment in new large-scale renewable energy slowed, though investment in rooftop solar and large and small batteries remained strong. The government responded by expanding its underwriting program to support large-scale generation projects. This program makes it easier for project proponents to secure financing, by topping up future revenues if they fall below an agreed level.

There’s more good news. The 12GW electricity generation capacity approved last financial year is nearly double the 6.9GW approved the year before.

It’s also worth noting how far Australia has already come in its transition to renewable energy. We’re fast approaching the halfway mark, averaging about 40% renewable generation. Some days, renewables can meet 100% of the demand for electricity.

In 2000, renewables’ share was only 2%. We have seen a huge transformation in just 24 years.

But what could go wrong?

Australia is still heavily reliant on coal-fired power plants, some of which are fast approaching retirement. The next big one due to close is Eraring, the country’s largest, in 2027. Yallourn in Victoria and Callide B in Queensland are due to close in 2028.

The latest forecast assumes the schedule for closures doesn’t change. By 2035, though, AEMO expects 90% of coal capacity to have closed, reducing it from the current 21GW to 1.4GW.

The grid is also facing a rapid rise in electricity consumption in the next decade and beyond. This is a result of the electrification of transport, industry and households. So new generation and transmission must be built to meet this new demand, as well as to replace ageing coal.

AEMO also tests the impacts of all these developments and the inherent uncertainty of events. It does this by modelling project delays and cancellations, power station shutdowns and closures, and changes in demand.

The results of this modelling are presented in its forecasts, according to different scenarios. Often, media outlets pick up on either the most positive or negative of these scenarios, leading to the divergent headlines we’ve seen today.

Insurance against black-outs

AEMO is taking out a form of insurance against outages this summer by activating the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (or RERT) mechanism. AEMO will call for tenders for large electricity users, such as aluminium smelters, to agree to power down when the system is under strain, in return for payments. In addition, owners of back-up generators could be paid to turn them on to feed power into the grid if energy demand looks like it might exceed supply.

AEMO has also asked electricity retailers to ensure they have contracts in place for enough supply to meet a one-in-two-year level of peak demand.

Tools like these have been used a lot more often in recent years as the chart below shows.

This suggests the system has been under more stress. It points to the need, as AEMO signalled in last year’s statement, to increase investment in the system.

What does this mean for households?

The statement’s main scenario, the one considered most likely by AEMO, suggests Australia is largely on track for maintaining a stable electricity supply. That’s provided the current pipeline of investment delivers on time and generators aren’t retired early.

The system operates to a very high reliability standard of no more than 10.5 minutes’ interruption to supply across the whole system for the year. The vast majority of outages (97%) are caused by network failures – storms, wind, traffic accidents – rather than lack of generation.

For Australians connected to the national grid, this means it’s still very unlikely their lights will go out in a widespread and prolonged blackout.

Since 2008, Grattan Institute has been supported in its work by government, corporations, and philanthropic gifts. A full list of supporters is published at www.grattan.edu.au.

Alison Reeve does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. In addition to her role at Grattan Institute she is a Visiting Fellow at the Australian National University’s Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions. .

– ref. Wondering what to make of warnings about our electricity system? The outlook is improving – but we’re not out of the woods – https://theconversation.com/wondering-what-to-make-of-warnings-about-our-electricity-system-the-outlook-is-improving-but-were-not-out-of-the-woods-237750

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gwilym Croucher, Associate Professor, Melbourne Centre for the Study of Higher Education, The University of Melbourne

This week, Education Minister Jason Clare made an announcement that could reshape the landscape of international education in Australia.

He revealed how from 2025, Australian universities, TAFEs and vocational colleges will have caps on the number of international students they can enrol.

The approach is highly complicated. It involves some groups of students and excludes others, and uses formulas that apply differently to different institutions.

It will take some time for each institution to understand what this means for them and for sector-wide effects to kick in. Many details are also not yet public.

However, it is already clear Australia has taken a highly bureaucratic approach.

Our comparison with similar recent moves in the United Kingdom and Canada suggests it could set a new benchmark in government micromanagement of international education.

International parallels

For decades, Australia, the UK and Canada sought to attract international students. This included national branding campaigns and visa conditions allowing graduates post-study work rights. It also involved migration rules favouring graduates with certain types of skills.

Until recently, all three countries managed international education in two main ways. First, through quality assurance systems focused on the education international students receive. Second, through visa systems focusing on which students can enter the country, how much they can work and how long they can stay.

This approach worked well, with each country experiencing significant growth in international student numbers. In Australia, the number of international students has grown on average around 5% per year since 2005.

But when international student numbers grew very quickly after borders reopened post-pandemic, all three governments became concerned. They sought new ways to manage the influx of new students.

While many within the education sector argued the surge in new students was a short-term feature of post-COVID recovery, it proved very easy for others to portray the situation as immigration “out of control”.

What happened in Canada?

After the pandemic, the number of international students in Canada grew by around 30% per year for two years in a row. By 2023 there were more than one million international students in the country, compared with around 600,000 two years earlier.

In response, the Canadian government announced it would cap the number of study permits, to reduce the number of new international students in vocational and undergraduate programs by 35% in 2024.

Each province and territory has been given a cap based on its overall population. This will have a significant impact on urban metropolitan areas where international students prefer to study, notably the Greater Toronto Area, but will have less effect on other regions.

What about the UK?

The number of international students in the UK has also surged, reaching a historic high last year of more than 750,000. This growth was entirely driven by an increase in students from non-European Union countries, as the number of students coming from the EU declined by 8%.

In response, the UK government stopped allowing international students to bring their partners and children with them.

This has already had an impact, with a 16% decline in student visa applications in the year to July 2024.

What’s going on in Australia?

Initially, through the now-infamous Ministerial Direction 107 (signed in December 2023), the Australian government tried to reduce the surge in new students by denying large numbers of student visa applications.

The Department of Home Affairs’ approach disproportionately affected students from India and low-income countries, while having little impact on students from China. The approach also disproportionately hit universities outside big cities and those with fewer international students.

Unfortunately, this completely undermined the Department of Education’s long-term strategy, which has been focused on increasing the diversity of the student population and the diversity of providers.

A new approach in Australia

So now the Albanese government is trying again. This time, each institution will be allocated a quota of new international students for 2025.

Australia’s largest universities, which also have high proportions of international students and are the most research-focused, will see the biggest cuts.

Many of these will have caps on new students set halfway between their 2019 and 2023 commencing numbers. Universities with the smallest proportions of international students will have their caps set at 2023 numbers. Private tertiary providers look like they will have significant cuts too.

The overall result will mean international students will find it more difficult to study at the large and high-ranked universities in Sydney and Melbourne. There will also be far fewer places in private colleges for lower-cost vocational programs.

The winners are public universities and TAFEs that currently enrol fewer international students.

What now?

What happens beyond 2025 is anyone’s guess, and will be determined through negotiations between the yet-to-be-established Australian Tertiary Education Commission and each provider.

What is clear is Australia is taking an even more extreme approach to managing international student enrolments than two of our major competitors.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australia’s approach to international student caps is even more radical than in the UK and Canada – https://theconversation.com/australias-approach-to-international-student-caps-is-even-more-radical-than-in-the-uk-and-canada-237752

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cassandra Cross, Associate Dean (Learning & Teaching) Faculty of Creative Industries, Education and Social Justice, Queensland University of Technology

We often think of fraudsters as people on the opposite side of the world. They will manipulate and exploit victims through words on a computer screen, or loving messages through the phone. But romance fraud can also happen in person, with the fraudster sleeping in the bed beside you.

This was the circumstance Australian writer Stephanie Wood found herself in. It’s also the basis for the new television series Fake, currently screening on Paramount+. A dramatisation of Wood’s powerful memoir by the same name, the series outlines the many lies and betrayals of an intimate relationship.

It’s a brutal insight into the world of deception which characterises romance fraud.

When love hurts

Romance fraud (or romance scams) is what it sounds like – offenders use the guise of a relationship to gain a financial reward. In most cases, it’s through the direct transfer of money from the victim, but it can also be through using personal credentials to commit identity crimes.

From the outside, it’s hard to understand how romance fraud is so effective. However, research has documented the range of grooming techniques, social engineering tactics and methods of psychological abuse deployed by offenders. Offenders know exactly what to do and say to gain the compliance of their victim.

Offenders target a person’s vulnerability and work hard to build strong levels of trust. There are endless calls, texts and emails that create a bond. Then follows the inevitable “crisis”, whereby the offender needs money urgently for a health emergency, criminal justice situation, business need or even a cryptocurrency investment opportunity.

For many, this can result in ongoing payments and substantial losses. Over A$200 million was reported lost by Australians to this fraud type in 2023, but this is likely a gross underestimation of actual figures. It also doesn’t capture the many non-financial harms, including physical and emotional declines in wellbeing.

When the relationship finally ends, it’s too late. The money is gone, the extent of the deception is laid bare, and recovery from the heartache and loss is a constant battle.

There is a well-documented “double hit” of victimisation, with individuals needing to grieve the relationship as well as any financial losses.

Seeing is not believing

There are countless incidents of romance fraud where the offender and victim never meet: the deception takes place entirely online. But it’s important to know fraudsters also operate in person.

Wood’s memoir details an extraordinary level of lies and dishonesty presented to her throughout her relationship. Stories that laid the groundwork for later fabrications. Stories that were deliberate and calculated in how they were used to gain her trust, and later used against her.

The motivations of these real-world deceivers are not always straightforward. Often it’s about money, but not always. For Wood, not being asked for money allayed potential suspicions, but it didn’t reduce her feelings of loss and emotional devastation upon discovering the extent of the lies.

Wood is by no means alone in her experience. Marketing executive Tracy Hall endured a similarly sophisticated and all-encompassing level of deceit in her relationship with convicted conman Hamish McLaren (known to her as Max Tavita).

In her book, The Last Victim, Hall recounts snippets of their daily lives over a 16-month period, with McLaren portraying himself as a successful professional in finance. His mail was addressed to Max Tavita and his phone conversations were with real people. Yet his whole identity and the world he represented to Hall was a complete fabrication.

The experiences of Wood and Hall highlight the sheer depth of elaborate deception that can be perpetrated in an intimate relationship. Critically, it highlights romance fraud isn’t relegated to an online environment.

How can we prevent romance fraud?

There is an overwhelming amount of shame and stigma associated with romance fraud. The dynamics of these deceptive relationships are misunderstood, and this perpetuates negative stereotypes and a discourse of victim blaming, even from friends and family.

In hindsight, the warning signs might seem obvious, but fraudsters tend to effectively disguise these in real time and deploy deliberate tactics to overcome any suspicion.

We must all create a culture that empowers victims to come forward to raise awareness. This isn’t intended to create fear or anxiety, but to normalise the threat fraud poses, and to allow for difficult conversations if it happens. Ongoing silence from victims only favours the offender.

How to protect yourself from romance fraud

It’s inevitable we’ll continue to swipe right in our efforts to find love. But keep a healthy level of scepticism and an open dialogue with family and friends in any quest for a new relationship.

Don’t be afraid to conduct your own searches of people, places and situations presented to you in a relationship. There is a memorable moment in Fake where the protagonist refutes her friend’s offer of assistance, saying “this is a love story not an investigation”. Sadly, sometimes an investigation is necessary.

No matter what the circumstance or the person, think carefully before sending any money. Only give what you are willing to lose.

Deception comes in many forms. We must recognise it for what it is, and the impact it has on victims. But we must also not give into those who lie, and let them define who we are or dictate our ability to trust.

If you or someone you know has been a victim of romance fraud, you can report it to ReportCyber. For support, contact iDcare. For prevention advice, consult Scamwatch.

Cassandra Cross has previously received funding from the Australian Institute of Criminology and the Cybersecurity Cooperative Research Centre.

– ref. Romance fraud doesn’t only happen online – it can turn into real-world deception – https://theconversation.com/romance-fraud-doesnt-only-happen-online-it-can-turn-into-real-world-deception-237653

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael O’Keefe, Director, Master of International Relations, Department of Politics, Media and Philosophy, La Trobe University

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may be attempting to backpedal from a “hot mic” moment at the Pacific Islands Forum this week in which he joked the United States “go halvies” on a new regional policing agreement.

But putting aside any awkwardness, the deal itself represents a significant diplomatic victory for Australia, as well as a security win for the Pacific.

The geopolitical rivalry between China and Australia, the United States and their allies has been encroaching on all aspects of regional diplomacy, and Pacific leaders came into this meeting wanting to refocus the agenda.

And one of the most important issues to the Pacific is transnational crime. With drug cartels from Latin America using Fiji and other Pacific nations as a transit point for drugs entering Australia and New Zealand, transnational crime now sits alongside climate change as the top two regional priorities.

In January, three tonnes of methamphetamine were seized in Fiji. If delivered to markets in Australia and New Zealand, it could have been valued at hundreds of millions of dollars.

Asian crime syndicates and outlaw motorcycle gangs from Australia and New Zealand are also present in some countries, bringing other crimes, such as human trafficking, prostitution and scamming operations.

In June, Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka told Pacific leaders:

We know that crime and criminal groups do not respect borders. Rather, they manipulate borders with their business model. Cybercriminals ignore borders altogether.

What the new policing agreement will do

This is why this week’s headline announcement of a A$400 million Australian-funded Pacific Policing Initiative is so vital. It’s a comprehensive program designed by Pacific police to meet the increasing threat of transnational crime.

There are three main pillars to the agreement, which will establish:

• four new policing centres providing specialist training across the region

• a Pacific policing support group able to deploy trained officers to countries for major events or to respond to crises

• a Pacific policing coordination hub in Brisbane that will have access to Australian Federal Police facilities for training.

Albanese has been keen to emphasise the idea was developed as a collaborative effort by Pacific police chiefs.

Unlike previous bilateral efforts involving Australia, this initiative will be truly regional. And despite some apprehensions about the geopolitical impact of the deal, the consensus among Pacific leaders is the initiative will be highly beneficial.

Papua New Guinea’s prime minister, James Marape, described it as “a concept that is born from within”.

The entire Pacific is the biggest unpoliced space in planet earth. […] it is really important that we come together in this manner.

Spiralling drug use and HIV infections

The threats from transnational criminals are framed as a problem thrust on the region from outside. These organised crime groups are only interested in the strategic value of the Pacific as a waypoint in their distribution networks.

These criminals are also taking advantage of gaps in the Pacific policing capacity and the vulnerability of regional police to corruption.

Unfortunately, the side effect of being a transshipment hub is rising drug use in many Pacific nations themselves, with associated social and health problems such as sex work and HIV infections.

The number of new HIV cases in Fiji, in particular, is surging at an alarming rate. As one UN official said:

It’s a serious concern, we are seeing young people, teenagers, dying of HIV today and that’s shocking. […] We are seeing 10-year-olds, 12-year-olds coming in to clinics testing positive because of drug use.

Read more:
Meth addiction, HIV and a struggling health system are causing a perfect storm in Fiji

The geopolitics behind the deal

Responding so comprehensively to this need will also ensure Australia is viewed as the “partner of choice” for at least a generation of Pacific police.

Many Pacific leaders feel Australia has struggled over the years to deliver a satisfactory response to their concerns over climate change. The policing initiative, however, is an example of Australia delivering on a promise. This will likely give Canberra a boost in its ongoing battle with China for influence.

The deal builds on Australia’s successful military diplomacy in the Pacific in recent years. Canberra has funded key defence infrastructure, such as the Lombrum and Blackrock bases in PNG and Fiji, respectively, and delivered military equipment, such as patrol boats and bushmaster vehicles.

These are practical examples of Canberra using the tools of statecraft at its disposal to achieve its national interests – namely crowding out
Chinese influence in this strategic area.

The policing agreement stands in sharp contrast to China’s failure to negotiate a regional security agreement of its own in 2022.

Of course, there is some wariness over the deal. Vanuatu Prime Minister Charlot Salwai said he wanted to ensure the policing initiative is “framed to fit our purposes and not developed to suit the geostrategic interests and geo-strategic denial security postures of our big partners”.

Under the agreement, each Pacific government can decide how it chooses to participate in the initiative. The response from the Solomon Islands, which has signed a controversial police deal with China, will now be watched closely in Canberra.

In short, the Pacific Policing Initiative is good public policy and diplomacy. It will certainly improve the fight against transitional crime by providing regional police with the resources and expertise they need.

Success on policing shouldn’t breed complacency, however. Australia has a long way to go to meet Pacific expectations on climate change. No doubt China will be searching to gain an advantage in this area.

Michael O’Keefe has received funding from the Australian Army Research Centre.

– ref. ‘Hot mic’ moment aside, Pacific policing deal is a masterstroke of diplomacy for the Albanese government – https://theconversation.com/hot-mic-moment-aside-pacific-policing-deal-is-a-masterstroke-of-diplomacy-for-the-albanese-government-237663

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hunter Bennett, Lecturer in Exercise Science, University of South Australia

Since the inception of the Australian Football League Women’s (AFLW) competition in 2017, women’s football participation has increased rapidly, from about 380,000 in 2016 to around 600,000 in 2022.

Women now represent approximately one-third of all players nationally.

During this time, the AFLW has evolved dramatically.

In 2017, it started with eight teams playing a short eight-round competition. Next season, which begins on Friday night, 18 teams will play across a 15-round campaign.

By 2026, the competition will feature a full 17-round season, with female AFLW players becoming full-time athletes like the men.

The impact of injuries

Team success and career longevity rely heavily on one critical factor – staying healthy.

Teams with lots of injuries don’t win many games, and injured players often have shorter careers.

This is why injury prevention is one of the most heavily researched topics around the globe.

The first step in any good injury prevention plan is injury surveillance.

Injury surveillance is the process of observing and tracking injuries to identify which are most common and result in the most missed matches.

By identifying the areas of greatest need, targeted injury prevention strategies can be created.

There is a large body of research examining the most common injuries in male Australian football at all levels (including community, sub-elite and elite).

This research is often used to guide injury prevention strategies for women’s football.

However, this has an issue – we don’t know if women have the same injury patterns as men.

This is important when we consider there are key differences between how men’s and women’s Australian football is played.

At some levels (such as elite and sub-elite), woman’s football is currently played with 16 players on the field, rather than 18.

It has a shorter game duration and fewer player rotations than the men’s competition, which can affect the speed of the game and the fatigue players experience.

Finally, stoppages occur 30% more often in women’s football, and women’s teams have more than twice as many contested possessions and tackles per minute of match-play than men, highlighting it has more frequent player-to-player contact.

Key differences between men and women

Researchers from the University of South Australia recently conducted the largest league-wide study of the injury patterns of sub-elite women’s football to date, tracking the injures experienced by seven clubs competing in the South Australian National Football League Women’s competition during the 2023 season.

Ankle sprains, concussions and anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries were the most common and burdensome. Conversely, there were very few muscle strains.

Most injuries occurred during matches (rather than at training), and more than two-thirds occurred in a contact situation (such as during a tackle or a marking contest).

Importantly, these injury patterns were notably different from those often seen in males.

First, hamstring muscle strains were one of the least common injuries, despite being one of the most common in men.

Second, ACL injuries occurred about twice as often in women than men.

Finally, and arguably most notably, concussion rates were about three-times higher than men – something that has been seen in prior seasons at the elite AFLW level.

Similar observations have been made in other contact sports such as rugby, where women not only experience higher rates of concussion, but also get concussed via different mechanisms to men.

Not only does this suggest women require different injury prevention strategies than men, but that concussion injuries should be a key prevention focus for all competition levels.

What could be done to fix the issue?

There are some possible concussion prevention strategies that could be considered for women footballers.

Tackles with an upright body position have been shown to increase the likelihood of the tackler’s head contacting their opponent’s shoulder, which increases concussion risk.

So specific tackle skill training to ensure athletes keep a low body position and contact the opposition’s mid-section could be an option to help reduce the rate of tackle-related concussion.

Recent research has indicated neck strength might protect against concussions and that injury prevention programs that include neck exercises can reduce the number of head and neck injuries.

As such, exercises to improve neck strength could be a great introduction to pre-season training, in conjunction with normal upper and lower body strength training.

Similarly, a study of athletes from a range of sports (including soccer and volleyball) suggested improving core muscle strength and stability may reduce the risk of concussion, which could be trained easily throughout the entire season.

Finally, rule changes could reduce the opportunity for contact concussions to occur. Some common suggestions have included banning “the bump” to reduce shoulder to head contact, and limiting the number of players allowed on one side of the field during a kick in after a point is scored to reduce congestion.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Concussion risks for women footballers are greater than men: why, and what can be done? – https://theconversation.com/concussion-risks-for-women-footballers-are-greater-than-men-why-and-what-can-be-done-235090

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia

Whether you enjoy chocolate milk regularly, as a weekend treat, or as an occasional dose of childhood nostalgia, it probably wouldn’t be the first option you think of for post-workout recovery.

Unless you’re on TikTok, perhaps. According to many people on the social media platform, chocolate milk is not only delicious, but it offers benefits comparable to sports drinks after a workout.

So is there any evidence to support this? Let’s take a look.

Rehydrating after a workout is important

Water accounts for somewhere between 50% and 60% of our body weight. Water has many important functions in the body, including helping to keep our body at the right temperature through sweating.

We lose water naturally from our bodies when we sweat, as well as through our breathing and when we go to the toilet. So it’s important to stay hydrated to replenish the water we lose.

When we don’t, we become dehydrated, which can put a strain on our bodies. Signs and symptoms of dehydration can range from thirst and dizziness to low blood pressure and confusion.

Athletes, because of their higher levels of exertion, lose more water through sweating and from respiration (when their breathing rate gets faster). If they’re training or competing in hot or humid environments they will sweat even more.

Dehydration impacts athletes’ performance and like for all of us, can affect their health.

So finding ways to ensure athletes rehydrate quickly during and after they train or compete is important. Fortunately, sports scientists and dietitians have done research looking at the composition of different fluids to understand which ones rehydrate athletes most effectively.

The beverage hydration index

The best hydrating drinks are those the body retains the most of once they’ve been consumed. By doing studies where they give people different drinks in standardised conditions, scientists have been able to determine how various options stack up.

To this end, they’ve developed something called the beverage hydration index, which measures to what degree different fluids hydrate a person compared to still water.

According to this index beverages with similar fluid retention to still water include sparkling water, sports drinks, cola, diet cola, tea, coffee, and beer below 4% alcohol. That said, alcohol is probably best avoided when recovering from exercise.

Beverages with superior fluid retention to still water include milk (both full-fat and skim), soy milk, orange juice and oral rehydration solutions.

This body of research indicates that when it comes to rehydration after exercise, unflavoured milk (full fat, skim or soy) is better than sports drinks.

But what about chocolate milk?

A small study looked at the effects of chocolate milk compared to plain milk on rehydration and exercise performance in futsal players (futsal is similar to soccer but played on a court indoors). The researchers found no difference in rehydration between the two. There’s no other published research to my knowledge looking at how chocolate milk compares to regular milk for rehydration during or after exercise.

But rehydration isn’t the only thing athletes look for in sports drinks. In the same study, drinking chocolate milk after play (referred to as the recovery period) increased the time it took for the futsal players to become exhausted in further exercise (a shuttle run test) four hours later.

This was also shown in a review of several clinical trials. The analysis found that, compared to different placebos (such as water) or other drinks containing fat, protein and carbohydrates, chocolate milk lengthened the time to exhaustion during exercise.

What’s in chocolate milk?

Milk contains protein, carbohydrates and electrolytes, each of which can affect hydration, performance, or both.

Protein is important for building muscle, which is beneficial for performance. The electrolytes in milk (including sodium and potassium) help to replace electrolytes lost through sweating, so can also be good for performance, and aid hydration.

Compared to regular milk, chocolate milk contains added sugar. This provides extra carbohydrates, which are likewise beneficial for performance. Carbohydrates provide an immediate source of energy for athletes’ working muscles, where they’re stored as glycogen. This might contribute to the edge chocolate milk appears to have over plain milk in terms of athletic endurance.

Coffee-flavoured milk has an additional advantage. It contains caffeine, which can improve athletic performance by reducing the perceived effort that goes into exercise.

One study showed that a frappe-type drink prepared with filtered coffee, skim milk and sugar led to better muscle glycogen levels after exercise compared to plain milk with an equivalent amount of sugar added.

So what’s the verdict?

Evidence shows chocolate milk can rehydrate better than water or sports drinks after exercise. But there isn’t evidence to suggest it can rehydrate better than plain milk. Chocolate milk does appear to improve athletic endurance compared to plain milk though.

Ultimately, the best drink for athletes to consume to rehydrate is the one they’re most likely to drink.

While many TikTok trends are not based on evidence, it seems chocolate milk could actually be a good option for recovery from exercise. And it will be cheaper than specialised sports nutrition products. You can buy different brands from the supermarket or make your own at home with a drinking chocolate powder.

This doesn’t mean everyone should look to chocolate milk when they’re feeling thirsty. Chocolate milk does have more calories than plain milk and many other drinks because of the added sugar. For most of us, chocolate milk may be best enjoyed as an occasional treat.

Evangeline Mantzioris is affiliated with Alliance for Research in Nutrition, Exercise and Activity (ARENA) at the University of South Australia. Evangeline Mantzioris has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, and has been appointed to the National Health and Medical Research Council Dietary Guideline Expert Committee.

– ref. Is chocolate milk a good recovery drink after a workout? A dietitian reviews the evidence – https://theconversation.com/is-chocolate-milk-a-good-recovery-drink-after-a-workout-a-dietitian-reviews-the-evidence-236685

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan M. Sawyer, Professor of Adolescent Health The University of Melbourne; Director, Royal Children’s Hospital Centre for Adolescent Health, The University of Melbourne

The age a child can be arrested, charged and jailed in Australia is back in the spotlight.

Last year, the Northern Territory became the first jurisdiction to raise the age of criminal responsibility from ten to 12. Now its new, tough-on-crime government has pledged to return it to ten. It comes after Victoria walked back its earlier commitment to raise the age to 14, settling instead on 12.

But the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child says 14 should be the absolute minimum. It raised this age from its earlier recommendation (in 2007) of 12, citing a decade of new research into child and adolescent development.

So what does the science say? What happens to the brain between ten and 14? And how much can those under 14 understand the consequences of their actions?

Who is an adolescent?

Our research shows adolescence is a critical period for development. It’s the time children’s experiences and explorations shape how they develop cognitive skills (including critical thinking and decision making), as well as social and emotional skills (including moral reasoning).

Adolescence also lasts longer than we tend to think. Important brain development begins during late childhood, around eight to nine years. Intense changes then follow during early adolescence (ages ten to 14). But these changes continue well into the twenties, and full cognitive and emotional maturity is not usually reached until around age 24.

However, everyone’s brain matures at a different rate. That means there is no definitive age we can say humans reach “adult” levels of cognitive maturity. What we do know is the period of early adolescence is critical.

What does puberty do to the brain?

Puberty is a defining feature of early adolescence. Most of us are familiar with the changes that occur to the body and reproductive systems. But the increase in puberty hormones, such as testosterone and oestrogen, also trigger changes to the brain. These hormones increase most sharply between ten and 15 years of age, although gradual changes continue into the early twenties.

Puberty hormones change the structures in the brain which process emotions, including the amygdala (which encodes fear and stress) and ventral striatum (involved in reward and motivation).

This makes adolescents particularly reactive to emotional rewards and threats. Our research has shown the brain’s sensitivity to emotions increases throughout early adolescence until around 14 or 15 years old.

At the same time, changes in puberty have been linked to increased sensation seeking and impulsive behaviours during early adolescence.

This context is crucial when we discuss the behaviour of children in the ten to 14 age range. The way their brains change during this period makes them more sensitive and responsive to emotions, and more likely to be seeking experiences that are new and intense.

How do adolescents make decisions?

The emotional context of puberty influences how younger adolescents make decisions and understand their consequences.

Decision making relies on several basic cognitive functions, including the brain’s flexibility, memory and ability to control impulses.

These cognitive abilities – which together help us consider the consequences of our actions – undergo some of the steepest development between ages ten and 14. By age 15, the ability to make complex decisions has usually reached adult maturity.

But adolescents at this age remain highly susceptible to emotions. So while their brain may be equipped to make a complex decision, their ability to think through the consequences, weighing up costs and benefits, can be clouded by emotional situations.

For example, research has shown 13-14 year-olds were more distracted from completing a task and less able to control their behaviour when they viewed images that made them feel negative emotions.

The social world of teenagers also has a significant impact on how they make decisions – especially in early adolescence. One study found that while older adolescents (aged 15-18) are more influenced by what adults think when weighing up risk, adolescents aged 12-14 look to other teenagers.

Experiments have also shown adolescents aged 12-15 make riskier decisions when they are with peers than by themselves. Their brain responses also suggest they experience a greater sense of reward in taking those risks with peers.

How do teens understand the consequences of their actions?

The concept of criminal responsibility is based on whether a person is able to understand their action and know whether it is wrong.

Moral reasoning – how people think about right and wrong – depends on the ability to understand another person’s mental state and adopt their perspective. These skills are in development across adolescence.

Research suggests it may take more effort for adolescent brains to process “social” emotions such as guilt and embarrassment, compared to adults. This is similar when they make moral judgements. This evidence suggests teenage brains may have to work harder when considering other people’s intentions and desires.

Young adolescents have the cognitive ability to appreciate they made a bad decision, but it is more mentally demanding. And social rewards, emotions and the chance to experience something new all have a strong bearing on their decisions and actions in the moment — possibly more than whether it is right or wrong.

Early adolescence is critical for the brain

There are also a number of reasons adolescent brains may develop differently. This includes various forms of neurodisability such as acquired brain injury, fetal alcohol spectrum disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and intellectual disability, as well as exposure to trauma.

Teenagers with neurodevelopmental disorders will likely cope differently with decision making, social pressure, impulse control and risk assessment, and face extra difficulties. Across the world, they are disproportionately incarcerated.

In Australia, Indigenous children and adolescents are incarcerated in greater numbers than their non-Indigenous peers.

Each child matures differently, and some face extra challenges. But for every person, the period between ten and 14 is critical for developing the cognitive, social and emotional skills they’ll carry through the rest of their life.

Susan M. Sawyer was a member of the Victorian government’s Youth Justice Act Independent Expert Advisory Group. She receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Nandi Vijayakumar receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Can a 10-year-old be responsible for a crime? Here’s what brain science tells us – https://theconversation.com/can-a-10-year-old-be-responsible-for-a-crime-heres-what-brain-science-tells-us-237552

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Haslam, Professor of Psychology, The University of Melbourne

The language of mental ill health is inescapable. Diagnostic terms, such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), pervade popular culture and saturate the online world. They are the currency of countless news stories and awareness campaigns.

The rise of diagnostic labels could be celebrated. It suggests the public’s mental health literacy is increasing and the stigma attached to mental illness is in decline. As the shame associated with it diminishes, mental illness comes out of the shadows.

But the rise of diagnostic language may also have downsides. Some critics argue it reflects the medicalisation of distress and may contribute to over-medication. And just as naming conditions may reduce stigma, it could also increase it. Labels can be sticky, having lasting effects on how others judge people with mental illness, and how they see themselves.

In a new study, my colleagues and I examined how labelling a person’s relatively mild or marginal mental health problems affects how others perceive them.

We found the presence of labels increases empathy and concern for those affected, but also pessimism about their capacity to recover. Essentially, diagnostic labels appear to be a mixed blessing when used at the less severe end of the distress spectrum.

Concept creep

When we talk about the rise of diagnostic labels, a particular concern is that concepts of mental illness have been expanding in recent years. They now encompass a wider range of experiences than they did previously. This so-called “concept creep” implies people may be using diagnostic terms to refer to phenomena that are relatively mild or marginal.

British psychologist Lucy Foulkes has argued people may be increasingly over-identifying mental illness. This means they are applying diagnostic labels to experiences that fall below the diagnostic threshold.

Recent studies (including those from my research group) support this possibility. This research has found people who hold expansive concepts of mental illness are more likely to diagnose themselves than those with narrower concepts.

The implications of applying diagnostic terms loosely are unclear. Using them to label relatively mild distress might have positive effects, such as encouraging people to take that suffering seriously and seek professional help.

But it might equally have negative effects, stigmatising the labelled person or leading them to be defined and constrained by their illness. It might even lead people to diagnose themselves inappropriately.

Our study

We wanted to understand the impact of these broadened concepts of mental illness by examining how diagnostic labelling influences the perception of people experiencing relatively mild problems.

Across two experiments, we presented almost 1,000 American adults with short descriptions of a hypothetical person experiencing a marginal, non-severe mental health problem. Each description was carefully tested to fall near the diagnostic threshold.

Participants were randomly assigned to read otherwise identical descriptions either with or without a diagnostic label (major depressive disorder, generalised anxiety disorder and bipolar disorder in experiment one, and PTSD, obsessive compulsive disorder and binge-eating disorder in experiment two).

After reading each description, we asked participants to report how much empathy they felt towards the person, how appropriate they were for professional treatment, and how much they should receive accommodations at school or work, such as extra time on assignments or special leave.

We also asked how likely they thought the person would be to recover fully (both experiments) and how much control they had over their problems (experiment two). We then compared these judgments between the label and no‑label conditions.

Labels had an impact

Participants who read descriptions preceded by a diagnostic label tended to report greater empathy toward the person and more support for efforts to accommodate their problems. They also saw the person as more appropriate for treatment than those who read the same descriptions unlabelled.

At the same time, the presence of labels led participants to see the person’s problems as more lasting and their recovery as less under their control.

Many of these judgments varied between disorders. There was some evidence that labelling effects were strongest for less familiar disorders such as binge-eating and bipolar disorders.

Mixed blessings

When diagnostic labels are applied to marginal cases of mental illness, the implications seem to be mixed. On the one hand, labels legitimise help-seeking, promote flexible support and boost empathy. These positives contradict suggestions that labelling promotes stigma.

However, diagnostic labels also seem to encourage the view that mental health problems are persistent and that people have limited capacity to overcome them. In other words, diagnostic labels may lead people to see mental illness as an enduring identity rather than a transient state. These perceptions may erode expectations of recovery for people experiencing problems and undermine efforts to achieve it.

Even the apparent benefits of labelling could have a downside in the context of relatively mild distress. It might encourage unnecessary and ineffective treatment or entrench a “sick” role by offering special accommodations to people with marginal impairments.

Our findings shed light on the possible consequences of the ongoing expansion of diagnostic concepts. As these concepts spread to less severe forms of distress and impairment, and diagnostic labels are used more loosely, we must be alert to the probable costs as well as benefits.

Nick Haslam receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Diagnostic labels may increase our empathy for people in distress. But there are downsides too – https://theconversation.com/diagnostic-labels-may-increase-our-empathy-for-people-in-distress-but-there-are-downsides-too-237553

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

The recent Democratic National Convention in Chicago was a showcase of impressive speeches. Presidential nominee Kamala Harris justified the newfound enthusiasm of Democrats with a strong acceptance speech, but even she couldn’t match the oratorical power of Michelle and Barack Obama two nights earlier.

US political culture is marked by visionary speeches, from Abraham Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address and William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of gold” to Martin Luther King’s “I have a dream” and Ronald Reagan’s “Tear down this wall”. This rhetorical tradition infuses events such as party conventions, where memorable speeches can lay the groundwork for presidential careers.

Australia also has some justly famous political speeches. There was Robert Menzies’ “Forgotten People” address of 1942, Paul Keating’s Redfern speech in 1992, and Julia Gillard’s “misogyny speech” to parliament in 2012. Noel Pearson’s eulogy for Gough Whitlam in 2014 was a rhetorical masterpiece.

But these speeches are memorable because they are so rare. Australian politicians need to be good communicators, but they are not expected to deliver the kind of soaring, visionary rhetoric we see so often in the US. Why is this?

Politics with the soul of a church

US party conventions often look like Hollywood awards ceremonies, and Steven Spielberg was involved in the planning of the recent DNC. Hollywood has become an indelible part of US political culture.

Reagan, a former Hollywood actor, set new standards for how telegenic and entertaining presidents could be. Donald Trump may not be everyone’s idea of a great orator, but the former reality TV star is certainly a master of televised spectacles.

The tradition of preaching is an even deeper cultural source of US political rhetoric. With about 30% of Americans attending religious services regularly, the sermon is the most prevalent form of public speech in the US.

American preachers need to be compelling, given the level of religious competition, and church is where many future politicians first encounter the craft of public speaking. American political speeches often reflect the combination of uplift and warning found in preaching.

While evangelical Christianity is usually associated with the Republican Party, it is also in the DNA of Democrats because of the Civil Rights Movement and the black church. One of the standout speakers of the DNC was Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock, senior pastor of the same Baptist church in Atlanta where Martin Luther King Jr preached.

Warnock described Trump in biblical terms as a “plague on the American conscience”. But he also described a vote as “a kind of prayer for the world we desire for ourselves and for our children”.

Australia has no shortage of politicians who were raised as Christians and have Christian commitments. But unlike in the US, where even secular politicians must pay lip service to prayer, Christian politicians in Australia must adapt themselves to the secularism of Australian culture. This culture does not expect politicians to preach.

Strong speeches for weak parties

Michelle Grattan last week described Australian party conferences as “mind-numbing” compared with the “Hollywood extravaganzas” of their US counterparts.

But the spectacles at US party conventions testify to the weakness of American political parties. The Democratic and Republican National Committees have little power. Party organisations are localised and fragmented. They lack the central authority found in Australian parties, and the national convention every four years is the only time a nationwide party truly comes into existence.

Even in Congress, parties have few mechanisms for disciplining their members. Party leaders are forced to negotiate with their own side, not always successfully. Party conventions see an extravagant display of unity behind a newly nominated candidate. This is one of the few moments party unity is guaranteed.

While there is plenty of competition for power within Australian parties, in Australia it mostly takes place behind closed doors within party hierarchies. In the US, would-be legislators and executives need to campaign publicly to win the often brutal primary elections that earn them the party’s nomination.

Successful candidates must create their own personalised campaigns. They have help from local party organisations, which coordinate resources and volunteers, but they need much more than that. A candidate for national office must build their own coalition of donors that would dwarf anything a party could provide.

Hence the need for good speech-making. Competition for the attention of donors and voters is fierce, and a compelling speech is a vital way to stand out. This is especially true of candidates such as Barack Obama, who came from outside the party’s traditional power bases.

In Australia, inspirational speeches don’t have the same political currency. A system of strict party discipline, small preselection contests and short, relatively cheap election campaigns means candidates are rewarded more for other political skills.

The Australian advantage: debating

While a US politician might give a more entertaining stump speech than an Australian one, an Australian politician would probably perform better in any scenario that requires unscripted comments – especially a debate with an opponent.

Even superb US political orators can be underwhelming when they don’t have a script and a receptive audience. Congressional debates consist of prepared speeches with little direct engagement between opponents. There is no equivalent to Parliamentary Question Time, and holders of executive office (such as the president or state governors) aren’t even in the legislature.

While Congressional committee hearings can sometimes provide a simulation of the rowdiness we associate with Question Time, the structure of Congress isn’t conducive to debate in the same way.

The physical format of Westminster parliaments, with opponents facing each other directly, attests to an adversarial nature that was there from the beginning. The power of Gillard’s “misogyny speech”, which went viral globally, came partly from the way she delivered it straight into Tony Abbott’s face.

US Congress was designed differently. The framers of the Constitution loathed the idea of factions, and imagined a legislature made up of representatives who would negotiate with each other to find consensus. Congress in turn would have to negotiate with the president, who would rarely need to engage publicly with its members.

This may explain why, despite the routine brilliance of convention speeches, US presidential debates are so tedious and forgettable. Commentators who try to hype these debates by citing “great moments” from past debates inevitably reach for the same ancient zinger, “you’re no Jack Kennedy”, delivered by forgotten vice-presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.

The sad reality is that the most memorable and consequential presidential debate in living memory is the one we just saw, where Joe Biden performed so badly he ended his hopes of a second presidency.

In the land of the scripted, the teleprompter is king.

David Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why Americans do political speeches so well (and debates so badly)? – https://theconversation.com/why-americans-do-political-speeches-so-well-and-debates-so-badly-237314

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phoebe Hart, Associate Professor, Film Screen & Animation, Queensland University of Technology

Ready to catch the latest screen hits for September? This month brings a fresh batch of content, including some older documentaries now streaming thanks to DocPlay and the new National Film and Sound Archive Player.

The first of these, Hearts of Darkness, is a timely watch as we await Francis Ford Coppola’s upcoming passion project, Megalopolis (and as Coppola continues to make headlines for kissing extras on the film’s set).

For those wanting a more contemporary take on documentary, Netflix’s The Man With 1,000 Kids tells the provocative story of a Dutch man who seems intent on fathering as many children as possible. And over in New Zealand, the newest season of The Traitors provides plenty of suspense and intense drama.

Enjoy the show!

Occupied City

DocPlay

Steve McQueen’s Occupied City juxtaposes two narratives: the Nazi occupation of Amsterdam and the COVID lockdown. Based on the book Atlas of an Occupied City, Amsterdam 1940–1945 by Bianca Stigter (McQueen’s wife), the documentary recites the names and addresses of Jewish families murdered by the Nazis while presenting contemporary footage of these locations, now marked by their mundane, everyday domesticity.

The film cuts to footage of the riots that took place in Amsterdam during COVID. McQueen appears to be drawing visual parallels between systems of state control.

Occupied City is a four-hour endurance that transforms watching into an excruciating visceral experience of witnessing. Streaming this film at home, one might pause, seeking escape from the weight of the images. But on the big screen, where I first saw it, there is no reprieve.

McQueen forces you to confront what it means to witness atrocity and do nothing. This cinematic endurance compels us to reckon with our own complicity, asking what it truly means to observe and act in a world still haunted by the echoes of this history. The unsettling parallels between past and present draw you into a discomforting reflection on how different forms of occupation shape urban life and memory.

– Cherine Fahd

The Traitors season two

Paramount+

The first season of murder-mystery reality show The Traitors NZ undid itself somewhat by casting a bunch of media personalities who’d known each other for years. This diminished some of the hit international franchise’s tongue-in-cheek drama, wherein the premise relies on the “traitors” in the group being able to trick the others into trusting them.

For the second season, once again hosted by Paul Henry in high-camp mode, the producers put their trust in the charm and idiosyncrasies of the general public. An impeccably cast collection of “normies” is placed in the picturesque Castle Claremont, on the aptly named Mt Horrible Road, and divided into faithfuls and traitors.

They undertake missions to accrue money for the prize pot, leveraging quickly-built relationships to their advantage. But the real pleasure is in watching everyday New Zealanders, many of whom are naturally very funny, enthusiastically lean into the show’s deceptions.

The season has good pacing, strong story beats and plenty of opportunity for players to shine. There’s no villain edit here (although the grinning Dungeons and Dragons game master Mark comes close to giving one to himself). With an awful lot of strategy – and a genuine sense that the game could go anywhere – season two is one of the strongest and funnest examples of New Zealand reality TV in years.

– Erin Harrington

Hearts of Darkness: A Filmmaker’s Apocalypse

DocPlay

Coinciding with the release of Frances Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, DocPlay is currently screening Hearts of Darkness, a documentary about the making of Apocalypse Now (1979). In case you haven’t seen it, the war epic follows a US army officer serving in Vietnam as he is tasked with eliminating a rogue colonel who views himself as a god among Cambodian tribal people.

Hearts of Darkness is compiled, in part, from footage and recordings made by Coppola’s wife, Eleanor, as well as outtakes and fascinating new interviews. This documentary, which has won several prizes itself, tells the story of the long, complex and disorderly shoot in the Philippines that promised little of the prizewinning film that resulted from it.

Coppola’s aspirations were grandiose, and every day the shoot got bigger and more out of control. The chaos was intensified by Coppola’s intuitive, self-indulgent working methods. He shot “irrationally”. He wrote call sheets with “scene unknown”, encouraged drug-addled actors to improvise, and dithered about the ending.

Eleanor documents Frances’ doubts about completing the film he dubs “the idiodyssey” – and his fear of producing a pretentious flop. Everything that could go wrong does go wrong, from a typhoon that killed 200 people, to actor Martin Sheen suffering a heart attack.

This was film-making as war: a psychedelic, rock-and-roll war like Vietnam itself. And as Eleanor says, “there is a kind of powerful exhilaration in the face of losing everything”.

– Joy McEntee

Facing the Music

NFSA Player

Bob Connelly and Robin Anderson’s extraordinary 2001 documentary Facing The Music is one of many classic Australian films available to view via the new, low-cost National Film and Sound Archive (NFSA) Player.

This film is a candid portrait of the composer and teacher Anne Boyd and her radicalisation in the face of cuts to university funding by the Howard government. Set in the Department of Music at the University of Sydney, we move between footage of talented young music students and tense staff meetings where Boyd and her colleagues grapple with their growing budget deficit. They try to paper over the budget problems by teaching more classes and (excruciatingly) trying to secure external sponsorship. They work in crowded offices and teach in shabby buildings, but their dedication to their students shines.

In Boyd, Connelly and Anderson have the perfect protagonist for a story about the funding crisis in higher education. Boyd transforms from an academic who refuses to strike, because teaching is her “calling”, to staffing a picket line. But the budget deficit still looms – and Boyd and her colleagues face difficult choices.

Universities have only become more neoliberal in the years since this film was made. This beautiful film is a reminder that the university’s role as a place of knowledge is still worth fighting for.

– Michelle Arrow

The Man With 1,000 Kids

Netflix

This docuseries went gangbusters on Netflix not too long ago, unsurprisingly. It follows the exploits of a fecund fertility fraudster who employs the internet to promote his seminal services. It’s the kind of contemporary clarion call that was always going to make the streamer’s recommender system go nuts.

As well as advertising online, Jonathan Jacob Meijer spread his seed by combining regular trips to repositories around the world with travel and lifestyle vlogging on YouTube (an archive for which the producers must have cried tears of joy). The result: the Dutch citizen became the father of many, many children as far afield as Australia.

The series shows how Meijer deceived women with ticking biological clocks by being indispensable and accessible, even offering to donate his DNA “the natural way”. Going by the online pseudonym of “Viking”, Meijer was also able to exploit the desires of prospective parents seeking “top” genetic stock.

I appreciated the show’s empowering aspects as it closely follows the stories of victims. Many of the interviewees are loving and grateful parents who are understandably horrified by the situation. It’s great to see them band together with the collective goal of humbling Meijer’s hubris.

Overall, it’s a slick story with abundant plot twists and funny (if sometimes poor-taste) visual gags to boot. Maybe not entertainment for the whole the family, but a conversation starter for sure.

– Phoebe Hart

Michelle Arrow receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Cherine Fahd, Erin Harrington, Joy McEntee, and Phoebe Hart do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Nazi history, reality TV deception and the making of Apocalypse Now: what we’re streaming in September – https://theconversation.com/nazi-history-reality-tv-deception-and-the-making-of-apocalypse-now-what-were-streaming-in-september-237478

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The advocacy group Muslim Votes Matter has put together a high-profile speakers list to launch its national campaign in Melbourne on Sunday, which is aimed at leveraging its influence for the federal election.

The group, formed earlier this year, is committed “to promoting political engagement and amplifying the voice of Australian Muslims”.

It does not intend to run candidates itself but will support those that align with its values and priorities.

Group spokesman Naser Alziyadat, a former lecturer and research fellow at Murdoch University, claimed that across Australia, there were more than 20 seats where Muslims could have the deciding vote.

“In the last 25 years, no federal government has been elected by more than a 15-seat margin. This positions us strategically to support candidates who prioritise our issues and challenge those who neglect our community,” he said.

At the Broadmeadows Town Hall launch, speakers will cover subjects ranging from conditions in Gaza, to the recent wins by Muslim candidates in the United Kingdom election, and the prospects of a hung parliament.

Wajid Akhter, a medical doctor working in the UK and a former assistant secretary general of the Muslim Council of Britain, representing The Muslim Vote UK, will “share the British election learnings with the Australian Muslim community to inform strategy and success”.

Bushra Othman, a surgeon from the Palestinian Australian New Zealand Medical Association (PANZMA) who did a three week medical mission in Gaza, will give her first-hand account of the situation there.

Nail Aykan, a former head of the Islamic Council of Victoria, from Muslim Voices of Calwell, will talk on the topic “Towards a Hung Parliament – there are no more safe seats”.

Among other speakers are Maha Abdo, CEO of Muslim Women Australia, Muahmmad Jalal, host of The Thinking Muslim podcast, and Umber Rind, a community health and anti-racism advocate who is a Yamatji Badimaya woman of Balouch cameleer ancestry.

Alziyadat said Muslim Votes Matter was “a beacon of cultural, linguistic, and professional diversity”. Its volunteers represented more than 20 different ethnic and cultural groups.

“Many of our volunteers are not Muslim, showcasing the inclusive and broad vision of our movement,” he said.

“As an independent, grassroots organisation, unaffiliated with any political party, our movement is dedicated to empowering the Australian Muslim and minority community to amplify our political voice.”

The Muslim community was the largest and one of the fastest-growing minority groups in Australia.

“Our collective voting bloc holds significant potential,” he said.

“MVM’s primary objective is to build strong partnerships with diverse community stakeholders to enhance political engagement and share resources.

“This effort will involve engaging the community through forums, workshops, campaigns, and digital platforms to encourage greater political participation and ensure representation at all levels of government.”

MVM national representative Ghaith Krayem said what had happened in Palestine in the last 10 months was “beyond reprehensible and we will not stop until the victims and all Palestinians receive the justice they so truly deserve.

“Part of that justice means holding our leaders accountable for their role in the plausible genocide unfolding in Gaza.”

Scott Morrison questions ASIO chief’s Hamas comment

Former prime minister Scott Morrison has questioned the comment by ASIO chief Mike Burgess that “rhetorical” support for Hamas would not be a problem for the security organisation.

Asked recently on the ABC if it was a problem for ASIO if a person had expressed any support or sympathy for Hamas, Burgess said: “If it’s just rhetorical support, and they don’t have an ideology or support for a violent extremism ideology, then that’s not a problem. If they have a support for that ideology, that will be a problem.”

In a Sky interview on Monday Morrison, who praised Burgess as an “outstanding” public servant, said he found the comment inexplicable.

He had worked with Burgess over a long period and many in different roles. He found the comment “completely inconsistent with what I would hear regularly from him over a long period of time.”

“The idea that any sympathy with Hamas, rhetorical or otherwise, somehow could be overlooked and you could get a leave pass to live long term in Australia – I can’t imagine that,” Morrison said, drawing a comparison with support for Stalinist purges or sympathy with Nazism. .

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Advocacy group to launch national campaign on Sunday to ‘amplify’ Muslim political voice – https://theconversation.com/advocacy-group-to-launch-national-campaign-on-sunday-to-amplify-muslim-political-voice-237661

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Hellewell, Senior Research Fellow, The Perron Institute for Neurological and Translational Science, and Research Fellow, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University

Plastic is in our clothes, cars, mobile phones, water bottles and food containers. But recent research adds to growing concerns about the impact of tiny plastic fragments on our health.

A study from the United States has, for the first time, found microplastics in human brains. The study, which has yet to be independently verified by other scientists, has been described in the media as scary, shocking and alarming.

But what exactly are microplastics? What do they mean for our health? Should we be concerned?

What are microplastics? Can you see them?

We often consider plastic items to be indestructible. But plastic breaks down into smaller particles. Definitions vary but generally microplastics are smaller than five millimetres.

This makes some too small to be seen with the naked eye. So, many of the images the media uses to illustrate articles about microplastics are misleading, as some show much larger, clearly visible pieces.

Microplastics have been reported in many sources of drinking water and everyday food items. This means we are constantly exposed to them in our diet.

Such widespread, chronic (long-term) exposure makes this a serious concern for human health. While research investigating the potential risk microplastics pose to our health is limited, it is growing.

How about this latest study?

The study looked at concentrations of microplastics in 51 samples from men and women set aside from routine autopsies in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Samples were from the liver, kidney and brain.

These tiny particles are difficult to study due to their size, even with a high-powered microscope. So rather than trying to see them, researchers are beginning to use complex instruments that identify the chemical composition of microplastics in a sample. This is the technique used in this study.

The researchers were surprised to find up to 30 times more microplastics in brain samples than in the liver and kidney.

They hypothesised this could be due to high blood flow to the brain (carrying plastic particles with it). Alternatively, the liver and kidneys might be better suited to dealing with external toxins and particles. We also know the brain does not undergo the same amount of cellular renewal as other organs in the body, which could make the plastics linger here.

The researchers also found the amount of plastics in brain samples increased by about 50% between 2016 and 2024. This may reflect the rise in environmental plastic pollution and increased human exposure.

The microplastics found in this study were mostly composed of polyethylene. This is the most commonly produced plastic in the world and is used for many everyday products, such as bottle caps and plastic bags.

This is the first time microplastics have been found in human brains, which is important. However, this study is a “pre-print”, so other independent microplastics researchers haven’t yet reviewed or validated the study.

How do microplastics end up in the brain?

Microplastics typically enter the body through contaminated food and water. This can disrupt the gut microbiome (the community of microbes in your gut) and cause inflammation. This leads to effects in the whole body via the immune system and the complex, two-way communication system between the gut and the brain. This so-called gut-brain axis is implicated in many aspects of health and disease.

We can also breathe in airborne microplastics. Once these particles are in the gut or lungs, they can move into the bloodstream and then travel around the body into various organs.

Studies have found microplastics in human faeces, joints, livers, reproductive organs, blood, vessels and hearts.

Microplastics also migrate to the brains of wild fish. In mouse studies, ingested microplastics are absorbed from the gut into the blood and can enter the brain, becoming lodged in other organs along the way.

To get into brain tissue, microplastics must cross the blood-brain-barrier, an intricate layer of cells that is supposed to keep things in the blood from entering the brain.

Although concerning, this is not surprising, as microplastics must cross similar cell barriers to enter the urine, testes and placenta, where they have already been found in humans.

Is this a health concern?

We don’t yet know the effects of microplastics in the human brain. Some laboratory experiments suggest microplastics increase brain inflammation and cell damage, alter gene expression and change brain structure.

Aside from the effects of the microplastic particles themselves, microplastics might also pose risks if they carry environmental toxins or bacteria into and around the body.

Various plastic chemicals could also leach out of the microplastics into the body. These include the famous hormone-disrupting chemicals known as BPAs.

But microplastics and their effects are difficult to study. In addition to their small size, there are so many different types of plastics in the environment. More than 13,000 different chemicals have been identified in plastic products, with more being developed every year.

Microplastics are also weathered by the environment and digestive processes, and this is hard to reproduce in the lab.

A goal of our research is to understand how these factors change the way microplastics behave in the body. We plan to investigate if improving the integrity of the gut barrier through diet or probiotics can prevent the uptake of microplastics from the gut into the bloodstream. This may effectively stop the particles from circulating around the body and lodging into organs.

How do I minimise my exposure?

Microplastics are widespread in the environment, and it’s difficult to avoid exposure. We are just beginning to understand how microplastics can affect our health.

Until we have more scientific evidence, the best thing we can do is reduce our exposure to plastics where we can and produce less plastic waste, so less ends up in the environment.

An easy place to start is to avoid foods and drinks packaged in single-use plastic or reheated in plastic containers. We can also minimise exposure to synthetic fibres in our home and clothing.

Anastazja Gorecki worked as a casual research assistant for the ‘Plastics and Human Health’ division of the Minderoo Foundation in 2021.

Charlotte Sofield and Sarah Hellewell do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Microplastics are in our brains. How worried should I be? – https://theconversation.com/microplastics-are-in-our-brains-how-worried-should-i-be-237401

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Roger, Sector Lead, Atlas of Living Australia, CSIRO

Across Australia and around the world, citizen scientists are protecting species by recording sightings, surveying landscapes and collecting samples. No job is too big or too small. As wildlife ecologists, we are indebted to this army of volunteers.

Citizen scientists are everyday people, who are not necessarily experts but who conduct scientific research. There are more than 100,000 citizen scientists in Australia alone. As a nation, we’re the third-biggest contributor to the global citizen science platform iNaturalist. This is staggering considering our relatively small population.

We wanted to find out how citizen science data contributes to decisions by governments and conservation organisations about which species are at risk of extinction, and how they can be conserved.

One of the main ways to help conserve biodiversity is through species extinction risk assessments. These allow scientists and decision-makers to determine how threatened a species is and the best ways to protect it.

Because citizen scientists collect so much data on biodiversity, this information could dramatically improve our ability to accurately assess species. But how useful is citizen science data in achieving this goal? Our new research set out to answer this question.

While we found room for improvement, it’s important to recognise and celebrate the immense value of citizen science data. We would be lost without it.

5 types of citizen science data

Our first step was to summarise what types of data citizen scientists are collecting. We found five key types:

• evidence that a species occurs at a specific location (usually an image or sound recording including the date and time)

• evidence that a species has not been recorded at a specific location

• answers to a set of questions about a species and its environment

• physical samples such as scat (poo), soil or water samples

• collected stories or oral histories, including the voices of First Nations people.

We then considered each data type in terms of its use in addressing the globally accepted criteria for assessing extinction risk. The criteria are set by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), an international organisation devoted to nature conservation and the sustainable use of natural resources.

Room to improve

We found the data citizen scientists typically collect were often not what was most needed to assess extinction risk under IUCN criteria.

Meeting the criteria requires more than just a record of a species occurring at a given location. Detailed information such as geographic range, and evidence of population decline, is also required.

So simply encouraging citizen scientists to record more ad hoc observations of species is not the best way to inform threatened species listing. Unfortunately, this means the assessment process can’t always benefit from the great work being done.

People charged with assessing a species’ conservation status could make better use of citizen science data. While this wasn’t an explicit finding of the research, the IUCN recognises this. Its recent white paper examines how Indigenous and local knowledge could be better harnessed.

There are ways to ensure citizen science data is better used to inform IUCN assessments. They can include:

• planning projects from the outset to ensure the required data is captured

• asking citizen scientists to complete structured ecological surveys or collect specific samples

• integrating citizen scientist data with that collected by professional scientists.

But our research also revealed good news! We found new methods of data analysis – such as extracting population numbers – are helping scientists use citizen science more effectively.

Australian success stories: Fungimap and FrogID

Some citizen science projects in Australia are feeding into threatened species assessments. We described two of them in our research.

The first is Fungimap, which coauthor Jasmin Packer is involved with. Members record and map fungi through iNaturalist. These records have enabled threat assessments for at least 13 species.

In Fungimap, scientists have added extra information to the data collection fields – such as habitat and what the fungus is growing in (animal, soil or wood) – to make records more useful for assessing whether a species is threatened.

The second is FrogID, led by coauthor Jodi Rowley. It’s a free smartphone app that enables people to record frog calls. Frog experts then identify which species is making the call. More than one million frog records have been collected this way in about six years.

FrogID data helped scientists understand frog persistence after the catastrophic 2019–20 bushfires in southeast Australia. Several species, including the sphagnum frog, have now been listed as threatened using FrogID data alongside professional data.

In both projects, scientists review the images and sound recordings. This ensures their accuracy and means the data is more likely to be included in government databases. Professional scientists also tell citizen scientists what they need to help provide the knowledge needed to assess a species’ extinction risk.

Here’s how to get involved

Citizen science observations are now the largest source of open-source biodiversity data in Australia.
It’s important to ensure the data we’re collecting keeps growing.

There are many ways to get involved. The Australian Citizen Science Association website hosts a helpful project finder. You can search for projects in your local area, on a particular subject or theme, or focus on projects suitable for children or beginners.

Erin Roger is the former Chair of the Australian Citizen Science Association and is currently employed by the Atlas of Living Australia, at CSIRO.

Jasmin G Packer is Vice President of Fungimap Inc., a not-for-profit citizen science organisation for Australia’s native fungi, and a Research Fellow in the Environment Institute, University of Adelaide. Jasmin receives funding from state and local government, and not-for-profit environmental organisations, for conservation research with citizen scientists and local communities.

Jodi Rowley is the Lead Scientist of the Australian Museum’s citizen science project, FrogID. She has received funding from state, federal and philanthropic agencies.

Rachael Gallagher receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Environment, Energy and Water.

Thomas Mesaglio is currently employed by the Atlas of Living Australia, at CSIRO.

– ref. Citizen scientists can help save Australia’s threatened species if we give them more direction – https://theconversation.com/citizen-scientists-can-help-save-australias-threatened-species-if-we-give-them-more-direction-231606

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Jordan, Associate Professor of Epidemiology, The University of Queensland

People who are taller are at greater risk of developing cancer. The World Cancer Research Fund reports there is strong evidence taller people have a higher chance of of developing cancer of the:

• pancreas
• large bowel
• uterus (endometrium)
• ovary
• prostate
• kidney
• skin (melanoma) and
• breast (pre- and post-menopausal).

But why? Here’s what we know, don’t know and suspect.

A well established pattern

The UK Million Women Study found that for 15 of the 17 cancers they investigated, the taller you are the more likely you are to have them.

It found that overall, each ten-centimetre increase in height increased the risk of developing a cancer by about 16%. A similar increase has been found in men.

Let’s put that in perspective. If about 45 in every 10,000 women of average height (about 165 centimetres) develop cancer each year, then about 52 in each 10,000 women who are 175 centimetres tall would get cancer. That’s only an extra seven cancers.

So, it’s actually a pretty small increase in risk.

Another study found 22 of 23 cancers occurred more commonly in taller than in shorter people.

Why?

The relationship between height and cancer risk occurs across ethnicities and income levels, as well as in studies that have looked at genes that predict height.

These results suggest there is a biological reason for the link between cancer and height.

While it is not completely clear why, there are a couple of strong theories.

The first is linked to the fact a taller person will have more cells. For example, a tall person probably has a longer large bowel with more cells and thus more entries in the large bowel cancer lottery than a shorter person.

Scientists think cancer develops through an accumulation of damage to genes that can occur in a cell when it divides to create new cells.

The more times a cell divides, the more likely it is that genetic damage will occur and be passed onto the new cells.

The more damage that accumulates, the more likely it is that a cancer will develop.

A person with more cells in their body will have more cell divisions and thus potentially more chance that a cancer will develop in one of them.

Some research supports the idea having more cells is the reason tall people develop cancer more and may explain to some extent why men are more likely to get cancer than women (because they are, on average, taller than women).

However, it’s not clear height is related to the size of all organs (for example, do taller women have bigger breasts or bigger ovaries?).

One study tried to assess this. It found that while organ mass explained the height-cancer relationship in eight of 15 cancers assessed, there were seven others where organ mass did not explain the relationship with height.

It is worth noting this study was quite limited by the amount of data they had on organ mass.

Another theory is that there is a common factor that makes people taller as well as increasing their cancer risk.

One possibility is a hormone called insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1). This hormone helps children grow and then continues to have an important role in driving cell growth and cell division in adults.

This is an important function. Our bodies need to produce new cells when old ones are damaged or get old. Think of all the skin cells that come off when you use a good body scrub. Those cells need to be replaced so our skin doesn’t wear out.

However, we can get too much of a good thing. Some studies have found people who have higher IGF-1 levels than average have a higher risk of developing breast or prostate cancer.

But again, this has not been a consistent finding for all cancer types.

It is likely that both explanations (more cells and more IGF-1) play a role.

But more research is needed to really understand why taller people get cancer and whether this information could be used to prevent or even treat cancers.

I’m tall. What should I do?

If you are more LeBron James than Lionel Messi when it comes to height, what can you do?

Firstly, remember height only increases cancer risk by a very small amount.

Secondly, there are many things all of us can do to reduce our cancer risk, and those things have a much, much greater effect on cancer risk than height.

We can take a look at our lifestyle. Try to:

• eat a healthy diet
• exercise regularly
• maintain a healthy weight
• be careful in the sun
• limit alcohol consumption.

And, most importantly, don’t smoke!

If we all did these things we could vastly reduce the amount of cancer.

You can also take part in cancer screening programs that help pick up cancers of the breast, cervix and bowel early so they can be treated successfully.

Finally, take heart! Research also tells us that being taller might just reduce your chance of having a heart attack or stroke.

Susan Jordan receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia

Karen Tuesley receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

– ref. Why are tall people more likely to get cancer? What we know, don’t know and suspect – https://theconversation.com/why-are-tall-people-more-likely-to-get-cancer-what-we-know-dont-know-and-suspect-235525

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Georgia Munro-Cook, Research Fellow in Sport and Disability, Griffith University

Much has been written about the success of women athletes at the 2024 Paris games, dubbed the first gender-equal Olympics with equal numbers of men and women competing.

However, the situation for the Paralympic games is much less promising.

Just 42% of athlete spots at the Paralympics will go to women (equal to the Tokyo games).

At the non-elite level, the situation is even worse.

In Australia, just 19% of women with disability are regularly involved in organised sport, compared to 34% of non-disabled women, and 27% of men with disability.

With nine years to go until the 2032 Brisbane Paralympics, these participation numbers are a significant concern.

Barriers for women with disabilities

The Australian government has invested in Paralympics Australia to improve their talent identification and pathway programs.

The goal is to build towards “Australia’s biggest ever team to achieve the nation’s best ever performance” in Brisbane 2032, according to minister for sport Anika Wells.

However, to meet this goal, Australian sport needs to address the major issues with the pathways, development and elite programs that are currently failing women with disability.

There are numerous reasons for this.

Women with disability tend to have less support to engage with sport, as many parents and medical professionals are highly protective and tend to underestimate their physical capabilities.

Consequently, they are harder to identify using traditional talent search methods, particularly in sports that may be more physical or involve contact.

In my ongoing research looking at the experiences of elite women para-athletes, one athlete revealed:

It’s been really hard to find more female athletes to take up the sport because it is quite a physical and difficult sport.

This is particularly true for women with high-support needs, who are even less likely to participate and are identified as a major gap in the Australian team.

The issue is at all levels of sport

The battle isn’t over when athletes get into the elite pathway.

Women with disability are often coached by male, able-bodied coaches, who have minimal understanding of disability. This can have a significant impact.

There are also concerns that women with disibility are more likely to receive inappropriate comments about their disability, gender or weight, or even sexual harassment from some male coaches.

Participants in my study also identified a lack of knowledge and limited research about disability sport.

One athlete said it’s “hard for [coaches or administrators] to set up [coaching] courses, say how to coach a para-athlete, when there’s not really much data.”

This was a particularly issue for sportswomen who require specialised equipment like wheelchairs or prosthetics, who have to rely on trial and error in their design.

Even national training facilities are not always accessible, respondents to my study identified, let alone grassroots facilities.

Indeed, women with disabilities often face specific accessibility challenges that are not taken into account by male-dominated disability studies and design. For example, the design of accessible toilets to accommodate menstrual issues and catheterisation (if the athlete is unable to completely empty their bladders).

Furthermore, while sport can be a place of inclusion and belonging, women with disability often experience bullying, anxiety, and exclusion, from coaches, administrators, and non-disabled parents and children.

As one respondent in my study said:

Most of us have been bullied somewhat or had rude or kind of mean comments.

In particular, some women with disabilities will avoid sports in which their body will be on display.

While the Paralympics may be a celebration of the diversity of bodies, at the lower levels, a more welcoming community must be developed to ensure a safe environment for women with disability.

Next steps

Key to creating a safe environment is the need to manage the mixed-gender training environments of many Paralympic sports.

While 8% of quota spots in Paris are ostensibly gender-neutral, in reality, sports like wheelchair rugby are significantly male-dominated (though Australia has a record three women competing in wheelchair rugby at the Paris Paralympics).

These sports are often not inclusive and haven’t adapted to ensure the safety of women.

Furthermore, though sports like wheelchair basketball are segregated at the Paralympic level, junior programs have boys and girls competing together. This is often to the detriment of the development of girls.

Training is often targeted to men, which one athlete suggested is a barrier: “I’m doing pretty much the same program as the para-men […] it’s quite hard to train together.”

Despite these significant issues facing women with disability in sport, most sport organisations do not have specific plans as to how to address this gender gap.

Instead, funding is often tied to one area of disadvantage (such as gender, disability, culture), without an understanding that people can have several disadvantages that need to be specifically addressed.

For Australia to have its most successful Paralympic games ever, we need to start thinking now about how we can change sporting cultures to better include women with disability.

I am a member of the Australian Gliders women’s wheelchair basketball team.

– ref. The Paris Olympics celebrated the gender-equal games. The picture isn’t so rosy for women Paralympians – https://theconversation.com/the-paris-olympics-celebrated-the-gender-equal-games-the-picture-isnt-so-rosy-for-women-paralympians-235773

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Bartholomaeus, Lecturer, University of Adelaide

The outcome of the referendum has been chalked up to deepening political polarisation, Australian’s entrenched racial prejudice and the rise of populism.

In short, opposition to the Voice to Parliament has been characterised as a conservative populist backlash with racist undertones. In the wake of a 60/40 “no” vote majority, this message only serves to deepen the post-referendum divide.

However, new research indicates the story is a little more complex. Findings show it was fundamentally the esteem of authority, the desire for an ordered society, and perceptions of justice and fairness that dictated how people engaged with this emotionally charged political issue, and ultimately how they voted.

It is only by a greater understanding of people’s attitudes towards the referendum (even if we disagree with them) that Australians can move forward and have a more productive bipartisan conversation.

Hierarchical status quo

We collected survey data from 253 people before and after the referendum. We wanted to get an idea of the way people’s worldviews would influence their vote and opinions about the outcome of the referendum.

In June 2023 (roughly 16 weeks before the vote) we asked about people’s attitudes towards authority, their opinion about social hierarchy, and their perceptions of justice in society. In October (immediately after the vote) we asked how people voted and whether they thought the outcome of the referendum would be good for Australia.

Our findings show people who voted “no” and who were pleased with the outcome were more willing to submit to authority. They also preferred a hierarchical society where the social status of different groups is maintained.

These attitudes were more important in predicting voting behaviour than a person’s age, gender, ethnicity, income, education, religion or even their political orientation.

Whereas social hierarchy beliefs are broad and refer to a person’s general view that it’s a “dog-eat-dog” world, racism relates more narrowly to discrimination against people based on their ethnicity. While there’s often a complicated relationship between preference for social hierarchy and racism, these findings counter the widespread claims that those who voted “no” were entirely racially motivated or were simply voting along political lines.

In understanding why some people voted “no”, these findings can promote a more open discussion.

For example, in the future when discussing profound and potentially momentous changes to the country (the current debate around nuclear energy, for example), it will be helpful to remember that people differ drastically in their willingness to follow along with authority.

Some will be quick to cotton on to messages from leaders and may act passionately (even aggressively) on these convictions. Others will be slower and more cautious in their support for ideas expressed by authority.

It will also be helpful to remember people have different ideas about how society should be structured. Some people will prefer a society with a clear pecking order, perhaps fearing the chaos of a disordered society. Others are less concerned with a clear structure in favour of things like social mobility.

Our findings show we shouldn’t reduce support for complex issues simply to one’s political orientation or demographic characteristics. We need to seek first to understand a person’s worldview and attitude towards societal change. Only then can we have a productive conversation about what is best for the country.

Perceived (in)justice

Populism is the idea that a small group of elite people are trying to force change on society. A populist backlash occurs when ordinary people rebel against the powerful minority and exert the popular will of the people. Voting down the referendum has been characterised in such terms.

Our data show people who voted “no” view society as a just place in which people are generally treated fairly. They didn’t accept the fundamental premise on which the referendum was sold: that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are, and have been, unjustly treated. This finding provides a helpful insight into the populist explanation for the referendum outcome.

At its heart, the populist narrative is a story of justice. The idea that the elite are pursuing their own agenda to the detriment of the people strikes us all as unjust.

But it is people who already see society as a just and fair place who are especially sensitive to this perceived injustice. These people can act out in sometimes extreme ways. Consider, for example, the January 6 storming of the US capitol.

By understanding the populist account in terms of justice, we can clearly see how the post-referendum divide in society has formed: those who voted “no” feel vindicated at having avoided an unjust change to society, while those who voted “yes” become wary of these people for their extreme and seemingly unwarranted reaction. Understanding not only the important role that justice plays in people’s lives, but also that people can have differing views of what justice is, is crucial to keep in mind.

In a world where political polarisation is increasing and where we are confronted with news (some real, some fake) that continually seems to deepen this divide, taking the time to understand the complexity of people’s worldviews and political opinions – even those you might disagree with – is more important than ever.

Jonathan Bartholomaeus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. It wasn’t just race and politics that motivated Voice to Parliament ‘no’ voters. Here’s what we found when we dug deeper – https://theconversation.com/it-wasnt-just-race-and-politics-that-motivated-voice-to-parliament-no-voters-heres-what-we-found-when-we-dug-deeper-228006

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Miranda Forsyth, Professor in the School of Regulation and Global Governance, Australian National University

Papua New Guinea has had a difficult year, beginning with serious rioting and looting in the capital, Port Moresby, and several other towns.

After a payroll glitch led to a stop-work action by police, the so-called Black Wednesday riots on January 10 resulted in burned-out stores and at least 20 deaths.

In February, an inter-group conflict in the troubled Highlands province of Enga led to around 70 killings.

And late last month, a marauding gang of young men calling themselves “I don’t care” terrorised rural villagers in East Sepik province. According to reports, at least 26 were killed, unconfirmed numbers of women and girls were raped and several homes were torched.

It’s time for a fresh look at how and why these issues are boiling over, and why a different approach is needed.

A spotlight on policing

While sparse data makes accurate measurement difficult, most would agree violence and lawlessness are increasing in many parts of PNG.

The broader context for this violence includes:

• rural decay
• lack of economic opportunities
• exploitative resource extraction
• a debilitating cost of living crisis, and
• frustrations with a political system that has failed to deliver services or development to a youthful and rapidly growing population.

Yet despite the multiple factors contributing to PNG’s “law and order” problems, it is common to focus on just one: the shortcomings of the country’s law enforcement agencies.

As a result, the solution is often simplistic: more robust policing.

Typically, this involves the deployment of heavily armed mobile squads, often long after events on the ground have got out of control.

This is usually followed by the abrupt withdrawal of these squads when the fighting ends.

This year, again, national leaders were calling for reactive and militarised policing, including the use of lethal force. In February, police were warning, “We will shoot to kill anyone brandishing a weapon.”

There is a superficial appeal to the logic of violent policing responses. After all, rather than bows and arrows, today’s warriors are armed with high-powered firearms.

As seen in conflicts around the world, the temptation to respond to violence with more violence is incredibly strong. Yet we also have decades of experience indicating such approaches in PNG simply do not bring about positive change.

Worse, such responses often exacerbate trauma and undermine ongoing local peace-building efforts.

A different approach

Perhaps we should instead turn for inspiration to Bougainville. This autonomous region of PNG, wracked by conflict in the 1980s and 90s, has since become a poster-child for post-conflict peacebuilding.

Bougainville’s peace process was driven by local actors – traditional leaders, women’s organisations, church groups and others – who creatively adapted older forms of peacemaking and reconciliation to new circumstances.

This approach is working in numerous micro-experiments around the country, including informal regulation in urban settlements.

For example, Gerehu, a sprawling suburb of Port Moresby, was once characterised by carjackings, burglaries, drugs and violence. It has turned into a relative oasis in recent years. This is due to work by motivated individuals driving local transformation, linking together scattered state resources and civil society energy.

It’s time for PNG as a whole to adopt such an approach, with policing seen as part of a shared governance agenda that involves civil society as active partners.

Changing the framing of violence

An important first step is to change the way violence is framed in PNG.

Portraying it as the preserve of unruly tribes, lawless individuals or criminal gangs disconnected from society and state is inaccurate and unhelpful.

It suggests these groups are “out there” needing to be “civilised” by the state.

However, some reports suggest PNG’s political and business elites may be implicated in resourcing such violence.

They may perceive electoral advantage from violence and insecurity, or economic gain such as land-grabbing.

State failures are also a major contributor to violence. The erosion of services such as health, education and justice have accentuated societal frustration across the board, not least among disenfranchised youth who are often blamed for violence and disorder.

This frustration has been fuelled by the sheer lack of economic opportunities for the growing youth population.

It has also been reported that protagonists of contemporary criminality in PNG come from outside its borders, with growing issues of drug and arms trafficking.

The problem of violence needs to be seen as one driven by both state and society. The responsibility for finding a peaceful way forward must also be shared.

This requires genuine work with local leaders, including women leaders, to address existing and new security threats.

There is hope investment in such long-term partnerships will be supported by at least some of PNG’s most senior leaders. Encouragingly, the PNG police commissioner, David Manning, said in January this year that “police needed to start empowering community-based leaders.”

Another high priority is bringing courts and other justice services into areas where they often have a limited and fleeting presence. Local leaders often need state back-up to resolve small disputes before they escalate into warfare.

If violent forms of self-help are to be avoided, people need to see perpetrators of violent crime face the consequences. This includes the entrepreneurs and beneficiaries of conflict, and not just the fighters on the ground.

Bringing peace to PNG requires so much more than simply demanding it through the barrel of a gun.

Miranda Forsyth receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Sinclair Dinnen receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. PNG has had a horror year of conflict – but peace rarely comes through the barrel of a gun – https://theconversation.com/png-has-had-a-horror-year-of-conflict-but-peace-rarely-comes-through-the-barrel-of-a-gun-236239

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janine Swail, Senior lecturer, Department of Management and International Business, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

This year Aotearoa New Zealand saw the highest rate of business closures since 2015, with 10,662 companies removed from the Company’s Office quarterly register.

During the second quarter of 2024, company removals increased by 2,786 (a 35.6% increase) compared to the same period last year. But the closures have not been felt equally.

Female entrepreneurs have been particularly hard hit. High-profile women-owned businesses such as Supy, Sunfed and Mina have all closed their doors.

According to one global report, family commitments, as well as the pandemic, posed bigger hurdles for women entrepreneurs than their male counterparts. In the survey spanning 49 countries, 18% of female entrepreneurs who quit or exited a business did so for personal and family reasons, compared to just 12.6% of men.

Our research examined the personal and family reasons behind women entrepreneurs’ decision to exit their businesses. While the respondents we interviewed were based in the United Kingdom, the responses reflected experiences seen in New Zealand and elsewhere.

We found women entrepreneurs were often felt they had no option other than to exit or close their business if they wanted to preserve a viable home life.

Household demands

We interviewed 16 women founders in the UK who exited their startups for personal reasons largely unrelated to financial or performance issues.

These reasons typically involved balancing household and business demands, and often included gendered responsibilities for child and eldercare.

Frequently, men’s careers came first in partner households. For instance, one beauty therapist closed her growing business to look after her children because her husband’s medical career was so demanding. As she explained:

If we had both tried to focus on careers, we would have clashed, and the children and family life would have suffered.

Another woman who had established an Irish dance school franchise, running across seven cities, reluctantly chose to sell. She explained travel demands with two young children meant continuing her successful business was no longer feasible.

Having one, I can travel around the world with him. I used to bring him in his little baby bucket to the dance studio and keep him with me some days. I hated doing that because I felt it was very unprofessional. But sometimes, you’ve just got to do it, right? But with two, it was like, okay, this is not feasible anymore. When I got pregnant with [my second child], I was starting to consider what was my next step.

Even women who were childless often cited gendered personal reasons. One woman’s harrowing experience of IVF forced her to rethink whether entrepreneurship was the right career for her.

Another had diverted time to support her sister, to whom she had been egg donor, through the loss of premature twins. Her absence from the business resulted in gradual income decline. She explained grief and emotional toil left her depleted and unable to drive new business:

It was like somebody had taken my batteries out. I just did not work anymore.

Delving into such emotions and how women made sense of their exit decisions was explored and put further flesh and blood into their “personal” reasons. Within the combined 16 interview transcripts, we documented 47 different negative emotions, versus 17 different positive emotions.

This imbalance demonstrates the involuntary nature of business exits. But more concerningly, we draw attention to the potential damaging effects these emotions have on women’s wellbeing and confidence, as well as the broader reconstruction of their career and work identities.

Having it all

The women we spoke with rationalised their exit decisions by pointing to the expectations on them to prioritise family. They blamed themselves for failing to see through this supposed opportunity to “have it all”.

Time and time again our societies pedal the myth that entrepreneurship is the panacea for work/life imbalance, and the secret to unlocking that much desired career goal of flexibility over one’s work.

As Uma, an ex-entrepreneur, explained:

I was told that [business ownership] would be flexible. I wanted something where I wouldn’t have to work full time, but I was completely wrong about that – especially with setting up your own business. It takes over your life and just becomes another baby.

There needs to be a new conversation, recognising business and personal expectations on female founders are often incompatible.

Business comes with costs

Policies and media should stop presenting self-employment as a cost-free solution for women.

At times, it is a poor career choice, particularly when talented women could potentially be adding economic and social value in organisations with family-inclusive practices and policies that can support them.

Of course, women should still be encouraged and helped if they do want to build a business. Many, particularly those with high levels of human and entrepreneurial capital, do create successful and sustainable ventures. But the evidence indicates the universal “more (startups) is better” thesis is the wrong approach.

Too often advocates argue governments should focus on creating “cheaper, faster, simpler” ways to set up in business. A more nuanced approach would benefit from firstly understanding the kinds of people who become entrepreneurs, and how peer networks and the financing environment can help.

Entrepreneurship continues to be presented to women as a way to build work-life balance. But this must be balanced with a “reality check” regarding the poor prospects for those entering crowded, volatile sectors, operating part-time, or who are sole household earners without the benefit of an additional secure income.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Having it all is a myth: family and personal commitments are pushing women out of their own businesses – https://theconversation.com/having-it-all-is-a-myth-family-and-personal-commitments-are-pushing-women-out-of-their-own-businesses-236501

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephanie Wescott, Lecturer in Humanities and Social Sciences, Monash University

The UK government has recently announced a review into their counter-terrorism strategy, focussing on responses to “extremist ideologies”. This announcement named misogyny as one of its extremist ideological trends of interest.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said:

For too long, governments have failed to address the rise in extremism, both online and on our streets, and we’ve seen the number of young people radicalised online grow.

Calls for action on the effects of extremist ideologies propagated by online masculinity influencers have recently increased. Last month, The UK National Police Chiefs’ Council described the radicalisation of boys into misogyny as a “national emergency”. They noted that online extremist influencers such as Andrew Tate recruit and radicalise boys in ways similar to how followers are drawn into other extremist ideologies. This has profoundly dangerous implications for women and girls.

Reframing how violent crimes are conceptualised has an impact on how seriously they are taken by police and how they are resourced.

At a time when misogynistic attitudes are on the rise, and the crisis of violence against women continues, understanding misogyny as an extremist ideology is key to shaping appropriate responses.

Read more:
We research online ‘misogynist radicalisation’. Here’s what parents of boys should know

What’s happening in Australia?

There have been concerted efforts to improve markers of gender equity in Australia. But backlash to the project of gender equity and efforts to eradicate gender-based violence continues.

Our recent research has found misogynist ideology is increasingly present among boys and young men in Australian schools. This problem is amplified by extremist content infiltrating boys’ and young men’s social media feeds.

Our interviews with women teaching in schools has uncovered the presence of misogynist beliefs among boys in schools across the country. These include beliefs about women’s inherent inferiority, commitments to regressive gender roles, and a brazen entitlement to treat women and girls in sexist and derogatory ways.

We have argued that a process of misogynistic radicalisation seems to have occurred. By this we mean that sustained exposure to misogynistic content, delivered by social media, has reshaped how boys and young men understand women’s roles and their relationships with them.

Online communities, certain social circles, and media content can act as echo chambers that reinforce and deepen misogynistic beliefs. This in turn can lead to progressive exposure to increasingly extreme views on gender roles.

There are similarities here with radicalisation into far-right extremism. This typically involves individuals being exposed to more mainstream or even seemingly benign nationalist or anti-immigrant sentiment, and then more extremist ideologies.

Misogyny and gender-based violence

The rise of misogynist attitudes among Australian boys occurs alongside an existing crisis — endemic levels of gender-based violence and murder perpetrated against women. Researchers have long argued that gendered violence and violence informed by extremist ideology, such as terrorism or mass casualty attacks, are inextricably connected.

Increased exposure to misogynist content is a concern not only for its potential to harm, but also for its connection to other forms of extremism. Recent research on violent extremism in Australia found that individuals who hold misogynist attitudes are more likely to support other types of violent extremism. This report also noted that gendered biases are overlooked as pathways to radicalisation and violent extremism.

Conversation about how to categorise misogynistic violence increased following the Bondi stabbings earlier this year. There was some resistance to naming the attack as an act of terrorism, with definitional limitations preventing it from being categorised in that way. This is despite police stating it was “obvious” the attacker targeted women.

Failing to recognise these acts of violence as informed by misogyny as an extremist ideology prevents us from fully understanding its radicalising influence and how it propels violence against women.

What difference would labelling misogyny as extremism make?

Despite their different focuses, misogynistic extremism has much in common with other forms of extremism such as far-right nationalism. They are each characterised by rigid ideologies, violence, and systemic oppression. They also challenge principles of equality and justice.

The rigid belief in the superiority of men over women that is the cornerstone of misogyny is akin to the far right beliefs in the racial superiority of white people over other racial and ethnic groups. At their core is the systemic oppression of the group to which they position themselves as superior.

Misogynist ideology, including the belief in men’s innate role in the protection of women and in the rightness of women’s subordination, are a feature of many other extremist and far-right ideologies, including neo-Nazism. Research has established this connection between gender ideology, extremism and terrorism, and also how these ideas spread across online platforms and channels.

Recognising misogyny as a form of extremism enables governments to approach it with the seriousness it deserves. It supports the development of targeted policies and legal frameworks to combat gender-based violence, systemic discrimination, and societal division. Recognising the gendered components of extremist ideology is essential to accurately responding to their risk and understanding their transmission.

For example, in Domestic, Family and Sexual Violence Commissioner Micaela Cronin’s inaugural yearly report card delivered to the Press Club in August, she noted that if the same intelligence resources were devoted to domestic violence as to terrorism, some women might be saved.

Not all people who hold extremist beliefs will end up committing acts of violence, and extremism exists on a continuum of beliefs and ideas. However, the focus of the definition should not be on the outcome of the belief or the consequence. It’s important to identify that misogynistic beliefs are extremist, and should not be accepted and tolerated.

Australian governments need to act

It has been widely recommended that federal and state governments should make extremist ideologies a national security priority. This should include ideologies that perpetuate violence against women. As recent research recommendations attest, prevention should attend to the gendered elements of the radicalisation process.

Education is a crucial part of primary prevention work. Part of that work will be accurately categorising and naming misogyny for what it is. While there is some attention in curriculums to preventing violent extremism, this rarely goes beyond a broad consideration of social cohesion.

If we are committed to the eradication of gender-based violence in Australia, we must accurately categorise misogyny as its underlying extremist ideology.

Stephanie Wescott receives funding from Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS).

Steven Roberts receives funding from the Australian Research Council, ANROWS and the Australian Government. Steven is a Board Director at Respect Victoria. This article is written entirely independently from that role.

– ref. Should misogyny be treated as a form of extremism? – https://theconversation.com/should-misogyny-be-treated-as-a-form-of-extremism-237229

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Ball, Professor of Community Health and Wellbeing, The University of Queensland

The weight-loss drug Wegovy is now available in Australia.

Wegovy is administered as a once-weekly injection and is approved specifically for weight management. It’s intended to be used in combination with a reduced-energy diet and increased physical activity.

So how does Wegovy work and how much weight can you expect to lose while taking it? And what are the potential risks – and costs – for those who use it?

Let’s look at what the science says.

What is Wegovy?

Wegovy is a brand name for the medication semaglutide. Semaglutide is a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA). This means it makes your body’s own glucagon-like peptide-1 hormone, called GLP-1 for short, work better.

Normally when you eat, the body releases the GLP-1 hormone which helps signal to your brain that you are full. Semaglutides enhance this effect, leading to a feeling of fullness, even when you haven’t eaten.

Another role of GLP-1 is to stimulate the body to produce more insulin, a hormone which helps lower the level of glucose (sugar) in the blood. That’s why semaglutides have been used for several years to treat type 2 diabetes.

How does Wegovy differ from Ozempic?

Like Wegovy, Ozempic is a semaglutide. The way Wegovy and Ozempic work in the body are essentially the same. They’re made by the same pharmaceutical company, Novo Nordisk.

But there are two differences:

1) They are approved for two different (but related) reasons.

In Australia (and the United States), Ozempic is approved for use to improve blood glucose levels in adults with type 2 diabetes. By managing blood glucose levels effectively, the medication aims to reduce the risk of major complications, such as heart disease.

Wegovy is approved for use alongside diet and exercise for people with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or greater, or 27 or greater but with other conditions such as high blood pressure.

Wegovy can also be used in people aged 12 years and older. Like Ozempic, Wegovy aims to reduce the risk of future health complications, including heart disease.

2) They are both injected but come in different strengths.

Ozempic is available in pre-loaded single-dose pens with varying dosages of 0.25 mg, 0.5 mg, 1 mg, or 2 mg per injection. The dose can be slowly increased, up to a maximum of 2 mg per week, if needed.

Wegovy is available in prefilled single-dose pens with doses of 0.25 mg, 0.5 mg, 1 mg, 1.7 mg, or 2.4 mg. The treatment starts with a dose of 0.25 mg once weekly for four weeks, after which the dose is gradually increased until reaching a maintenance dose of 2.4 mg weekly.

While it’s unknown what the impact of Wegovy’s introduction will be on Ozempic’s availability, Ozempic is still anticipated to be in low supply for the remainder of 2024.

Is Wegovy effective for weight loss?

Given Wegovy is a semaglutide, there is very strong evidence it can help people lose weight and maintain this weight loss.

A recent study found that over four years, participants taking Wevovy as indicated experienced an average weight loss of 10.2% body weight and a reduction in waist circumference of 7.7cm.

For those who stop taking the medication, analyses have shown that about two-thirds of weight lost is regained.

What are the side effects of Wegovy?

The most common side effects are nausea and vomiting.

However, other serious side effects are also possible because of the whole-of-body impact of the medication. Thyroid tumours and cancer have been detected as a risk in animal studies, yet are rarely seen in human scientific literature.

In the four-year Wegovy trial, 16.6% of participants who received Wegovy (1,461 people) experienced an adverse event that led to them permanently discontinuing their use of the medication. This was higher than the 8.2% of participants (718 people) who received the placebo (with no active ingredient).

Side effects included gastrointestinal disorders (including nausea and vomiting), which affected 10% of people who used Wegovy compared to 2% of people who used the placebo.

Gallbladder-related disorders occurred in 2.8% of people who used Wegovy, and 2.3% of people who received the placebo.

Recently, concerns about suicidal thoughts and behaviours have been raised, after a global analysis reviewed more than 36 million reports of adverse events from semaglutide (Ozempic or Wegovy) since 2000.

There were 107 reports of suicidal thoughts and self-harm among people taking semaglutide, sadly including six actual deaths. When people stopped the medication, 62.5% found the thoughts went away. What we don’t know is whether dose, weight loss, or previous mental health status or use of antidepressants had a role to play.

Finally, concerns are growing about the negative effect of semaglutides on our social and emotional connection with food. Anecdotal and scientific evidence suggests people who use semaglutides significantly reduce their daily dietary intake (as anticipated) by skipping meals and avoiding social occasions – not very enjoyable for people and their loved ones.

How can people access Wegovy?

Wegovy is available for purchase at pharmacists with a prescription from a doctor.

But there is a hefty price tag. Wegovy is not currently subsidised through the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, leaving patients to cover the cost. The current cost is estimated at around A$460 per month dose.

If you’re considering Wegovy, make an appointment with your doctor for individual advice.

Lauren Ball works for The University of Queensland and receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

Emily Burch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Considering taking Wegovy to lose weight? Here are the risks and benefits – and how it differs from Ozempic – https://theconversation.com/considering-taking-wegovy-to-lose-weight-here-are-the-risks-and-benefits-and-how-it-differs-from-ozempic-237308

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Brent, Professor and Chair in Sustainable Energy Systems, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

The prime minister has called it an “energy security crisis” and signalled a review of New Zealand’s electricity market as wholesale prices spike and industries suffer.

And he’s right – this year has seen pricing turmoil. August saw daily averages ranging between NZ$164.52 and $853.57 per megawatt hour (MWh). By comparison, August 2023 saw a maximum daily average price of $168.43 per MWh.

The Electricity Authority attributes this to a shortage of gas combined with low rain and inflows into our hydro lakes. The latter is a major concern. Storage levels are now around 800 gigawatt hours (GWh) less than the minimum levels in 2023, and more than 1,000GWh less than the historical mean for this time of year.

This is happening in the face of climate change, higher risk of dry years, and high projected growth in electricity demand. Electricity demand and generation scenarios released recently by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment show this growth could be up to 82%, with a peak demand of between 9.1 and 12.5 gigawatts by 2050.

However, with greater electrification needed to decarbonise the economy, and aspirations to phase out all fossil fuels by 2030, some scenarios indicate the demand will be at least two to three times more. Of course, this means more generation capacity will be needed – 20 to 30 gigawatts above the current ten. The question is, can New Zealand do it?

Doubled capacity by 2030

The energy industry has been responding to these market signals, as highlighted in the government’s latest generation investment survey.

Committed and actively pursued projects will double generation capacity by the end of the decade. This will come largely from solar (6.4GW) and onshore wind (2.9GW), with smaller contributions from geothermal (0.6GW) and grid-scale batteries (0.6GW).

The first 35-megawatt battery facility was commissioned at Huntly this year. And battery capacity is important for stablising the grid and meeting peak demands. However, batteries will not address long-term storage of weeks and months, which is the focus of the NZ Battery Project.

The projected lesser investment in battery technology indicates a greater need to use hydropower capacity to compensate for the variability of solar and wind generation.

This “firming” of supply is based on the percentage of the year that a generation facility will provide power. For utility-scale solar it ranges between 19% and 26%, and for onshore wind between 33% and 55%.

Modelling by the Electricity Authority provides further insight on the firming that will be required. The analysis shows solar generation may be below 10% of the total capacity for 60% of the time. It will be above 50% of the overall capacity for 14% of the time.

Wind generation may be below 10% of the total capacity for 5% of the time, and above 50% of the capacity for 9% of the time over the entire country.

Renewables can meet future demand

Still, by 2030 we can expect around 11.5 terrawatt hours (TWh) a year from the new solar projects, and around 10.1TWh from the onshore wind projects. In total, this is about half the current yearly electricity demand.

Over the past decade, the country’s hydropower assets generated between 24 and 26TWh per year. So, to reach 100% renewable supply by 2030 (assuming biomass replaces coal at Huntley) will mean replacing between 3.5 and 5.6TWh of gas generation.

The battery capacity being developed won’t offset all of the gas generators currently used to respond to peak demands. If all of the batteries being developed participated in the market for four hours a day, they could provide around 1TWh over a year.

On a yearly basis, then, New Zealand can generate more than 47TWh from solar, wind and hydro, with some firming from the grid-scale batteries. That excludes the other baseload generators – geothermal, co-generation (where electricity is generated alongside heat production at industrial sites such as paper mills) and biomass.

In short, we should be able to meet our aspirations and the projected growth in energy demand by 2030.

Winter price spikes still likely

The challenge will be seasonal and daily power variations. The Electricity Authority analysis indicates wind generation should be reasonably consistent over the year. But there is an overall tendency to generate more during the day, typically peaking in the afternoons.

Solar generation, of course, will also peak in the early afternoons. But in winter it will generate a third less than in summer. This is important, given the risk of
depleting hydro lake storage and running out of sufficient generation capacity in the grid.

The electricity system will need to cater for the lower solar generation in winter when hydro storage is at its lowest.

Morning and evening demand can be addressed, to some extent, with the rollout of rooftop solar, with batteries to store the solar electricity generated, augmented by the grid to charge the batteries if the sun doesn’t shine.

If the solar systems are managed collectively as a virtual power plant, it has been shown winter peak events can be addressed by feeding electricity back into the grid when needed.

Nevertheless, with solar and wind offering lower market prices, we can probably expect wholesale prices to stabilise at reasonably low levels from the end of September to early May in a year without drought spells.

But winter may well still see price spikes if we don’t address seasonal storage. Scrapping most of the NZ Battery Project, as others have observed, may well prove shortsighted.

Alan Brent does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ energy crisis: electricity demand will jump as NZ decarbonises – can renewable generation keep up? – https://theconversation.com/nz-energy-crisis-electricity-demand-will-jump-as-nz-decarbonises-can-renewable-generation-keep-up-237320

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Just three weeks ago, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock declared interest rate cuts unlikely in the next six months. But if there was any doubt about what’s going to happen to global interest rates, the US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell removed it on Saturday.

Before an audience of central bankers from around the world (including the deputy governor of Australia’s Reserve Bank Andrew Hauser), Powell declared the long-awaited US rate cuts were about to begin.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said, with a refreshing clarity that left no room for ambiguity.

“The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Rate cuts by the US Fed and other central banks will create a near-irresistible pressure for Australia’s Reserve Bank to follow.

My tip? Australians are likely to get a rate cut as soon as Melbourne Cup Day, Tuesday November 5. Here’s why.

What happens in the US will happen in Australia

When the US Fed’s rate-setting committee next meets on September 17 and 18, it looks certain to cut the US Federal Funds rate for the first time since it began lifting it in 2022.

The US would join the United Kingdom, China, Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, Denmark, the European Union, and a host of other jurisdictions in cutting rates – some of them repeatedly – to shore up their economies.

Financial markets are pricing in the equivalent of four ordinary-size rate cuts in the US by the end of the year. Given the US Fed has only three meetings left this year, this implies they are expecting at least one cut to be a double.

Australia and the US aren’t that different

The US story, as Powell told it over the weekend, is also the Australian story.

Describing what he called the rise and fall of inflation in his speech, Powell explained inflation took off when consumer spending surged after the end of COVID restrictions.

The supply of goods was unable to keep pace at first, and consumers switched their spending to services.

Then Russia invaded Ukraine, ramping up energy and food prices and making high inflation a truly “global phenomenon”.

What brought inflation down from late 2022 was a return to normal in the supply of goods and food and energy, and restraint in consumer spending brought about by a series of aggressive interest rate hikes.

‘Anchored’ expectations of inflation

What has kept inflation falling without (so far) much damage to employment in the US has been surprisingly restrained inflation expectations.

If workers’ expectations about future inflation remain “anchored” to a figure that’s low, rather than soaring with actual inflation, they are likely to be modest in their wage demands and be more likely to keep their jobs.

But Powell said it had been “far from assured that the inflation anchor would hold”.

In Australia – as in the US, the UK, Canada and most of the rest of the world – inflation has trended down since late 2022. So just as in the US, our expectations have remained anchored.

Australians expect further falls

Each month, the Melbourne Institute surveys Australians about the inflation they expect in the year ahead. On two of the measures, the expectations are ultra-low.

One is the so-called weighted mean, which ignores answers of greater than 5% and less than zero (on the grounds they are unrealistic) and averages the rest.

It suggests we expect an inflation rate of 2.6%: right in the middle of the Reserve Bank’s target band and not outsized in any way whatsoever.

Another measure is called the non-rounded inflation expectation. This excludes round numbers greater than 10 on the theory that if someone gives an answer of 15% they are not serious, but if someone gives an answer of 14.9% they are.

This measure suggests an inflation rate of 3.1%: almost exactly at the top of the bank’s 2-3% target band, and again nothing to get alarmed about.

Room to cut rates

With US inflation well-anchored, Powell said the US Fed can safely cut interest rates to support the labour market, which is beginning to weaken, as ours is here in Australia, although more slowly.

Those are the parallels, and they are strong. So the arguments for cutting interest rates in the US apply here as well, even if the timing is different. Australia moved later than the US on the way up and will move later on the way down.

And there’s another reason to believe that the cuts about to be unleashed in the US will flow through to cuts here, probably quickly.

The Australian dollar jumped after Powell’s speech. When Powell actually cuts rates, the Australian dollar is likely to climb further.

This is because cuts in the US make the US a relatively less attractive place to hold money and Australia a relatively more attractive place.

Cuts in one country flow through to cuts in another

The more the Australian dollar climbs relative to the US dollar, the cheaper the imports that are priced in US dollars become – which is another way of saying the lower Australian inflation becomes.

It’s the same for other countries. Merely by cutting their own rates, the US and other countries will be easing inflation in Australia. The more they do it, the more Australian inflation will ease, building up a stronger and stronger case for our Reserve Bank to cut rates.

It’s why central banks tend to move rates together (albeit with delays). It’s why on Monday, Australian financial markets were pricing one interest rate cut by Christmas and a total of three by May.

Traders don’t believe Australia’s Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock when she said interest rate cuts were unlikely in the coming months. They think what happens overseas will happen here too.

Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.

– ref. Stand by for interest rate cuts: the US is about to start, so expect Australia to follow – https://theconversation.com/stand-by-for-interest-rate-cuts-the-us-is-about-to-start-so-expect-australia-to-follow-237545

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National University

After months of speculation, the federal government has announced what the cap will be for international students in Australia.

In 2025, the number of international students starting a course will be set at 270,000. This includes both higher education and vocational education courses.

This still requires parliamentary approval. The Senate needs to pass legislation to allow the government to set enforceable enrolment caps.

The government has jumped ahead of its legal authority here because the process of recruiting and enrolling international students for next year is already well underway. Education providers need to know how many students they can take.

With the caps coming on top of major changes to visa and migration rules for international students – there have been nine over the past year – the cumulative consequences are hard to predict.

While caps will force some universities to reject students they would otherwise have enrolled, other universities may not be able to fully use their international student quota.

Which students are capped?

The government says the overall cap – which it calls a “national planning level” – will bring new student numbers “back to pre-pandemic levels”. However not all student categories are capped.

As previously announced, school students, postgraduate research students, some English language students, and students in “non-award courses” (a category that includes exchange students), will not be counted towards the cap.

We also have some new exemptions. These include students with Australian government or “key partner” foreign government scholarships, students who are part of “twinning” arrangements (where they do some of their course offshore and then come to Australia), and students from the Pacific and Timor-Leste.

In 2025 only new international student commencements will be capped. A student will be considered “new” the first time they start at each education provider. If they start another course at the same provider they will not be counted as new. In 2026 and in later years, the government will have the power to cap all students.

Unfortunately, accurate comparisons between the 2025 caps and previous enrolments are not possible using publicly available data. The definition of a “new” student is different and there is no published data on foreign scholarship holders or students who start at offshore campuses before coming to Australia.

What does it mean for unis?

The government says public universities will have a combined cap of around 145,000 new international students.

The caps have been calculated with 2019 pre-pandemic enrolments at each public university as their base. For universities who increased their enrolments of international students between 2019 and 2023 a formula applies, depending on their “international concentration”. This is based on the percentage of their enrolments in Australian campuses who are international students.

Universities with low concentrations of international student can have all their growth to 2023 included in their 2025 cap. However universities with concentrations above 37% will get to keep only 50% of their growth.

This is likely to affect the more prestigious universities the most. This includes Group of Eight universities, such as the University of Sydney, the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland and the Australian National University. They will have to cut their commencing student intakes in 2025 compared with 2023 and 2024.

Private universities and non-university higher education providers, which are mostly small specialist colleges, will only have around 30,000 new international students between them.

What about vocational education?

The vocational education sector, which includes TAFEs, will have an overall cap of 95,000 new commencing international students.

The government says vocational education providers with a “higher ratio of international students” will receive lower allocations to encourage them to diversify.

This will have a significant impact on vocational colleges that primarily serve the international student market.

Will the caps be reached?

What the government has announced for caps – which allows for some growth since 2019 and a longer list of exemptions – could be seen by some in the public university sector as better than their worst-case scenarios.

Despite this, the number of new international students in 2025 could easily be much lower than 270,000.

Migration policy change

As I have previously explained, between late 2023 and July 1 2024, the government implemented nine migration changes that made Australia less attractive to international students. A tenth change expected later this year will make permanent migration more difficult for international students.

By June 2024 these changes had already severely affected offshore demand for vocational education. Demand for higher education still looked normal as of June 2024, but this was before the non-refundable visa application fee more than doubled to A$1,600.

On the positive side, the government says if its capping legislation passes the Senate it will reverse one of the nine changes – a ministerial direction on visa processing priorities. This has seriously disadvantaged less prestigious universities and other education providers through slower visa processing.

Blocking student choice

While fairer visa processing will help some education providers increase their enrolments, capping popular universities below student demand won’t necessarily help other universities in Australia.

Few students who want to attend high-prestige universities or want to live in large cities will go to lower prestige or regional universities instead. They just won’t come to Australia.

At the end of 2024 we are likely to find many universities and other education providers have not reached their cap, pushing the total number of new students well below 270,000.

The Senate will decide

Two days of public hearings for the Senate inquiry into the capping bill raised many concerns about caps. This includes worries the caps will lead to university job cuts. The inquiry will release its report on September 6.

Unfortunately for the international education sector, the Coalition supports the idea of education-provider level caps. If the Coalition and Labor can agree on how to set provider caps, this part of the legislation will pass in some form. So the ongoing debate will just be about the detail of caps in 2025 and beyond.

Andrew Norton works for the Australian National University, which has said that the caps will reduce its international student enrolments.

– ref. The government will cap new international students at 270,000 in 2025. But this number may not be reached – https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-cap-new-international-students-at-270-000-in-2025-but-this-number-may-not-be-reached-237558

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Albanese government faces a likely High Court challenge to its installation of an administrator into the construction division of the CFMEU.

As thousands of the union’s members held rallies in cities across the country, its former Queensland secretary Michael Ravbar – who’s been dismissed together with almost all other officials – said he would launch a challenge against the legislation passed last week to put the union into administration. An administrator was immediately installed.

Ravbar told the Brisbane rally: “This is going to be the biggest challenge and the biggest fight that we’ve ever had, but we’re all up for it. You’ve got to get control of our union back.”

Ravbar urged members to vote against Labor at the October state election and next year’s federal election, and attacked Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who he said had “always been anti-union”.

The High Court action is likely to argue the Commonwealth lacked the authority to take over a democratically organised union and sack nearly 300 officials, who had not been convicted of any offence. No court was involved in the action. Earlier court proceedings that were underway, brought by the Fair Work Commission’s general manager, are set to be discontinued after the government’s action.

The government said late Tuesday it was not aware of any CFMEU challenge.

On Tuesday Prime Minister Anthony Albanese denied the claim by the union’s former Victorian secretary John Setka that the government had made “a deal” with the union that there would be no move for an administrator if he resigned his position.

Setka claimed on Channel 7 at the weekend that after Nine sent allegations of malfeasance to the union, he had offered to “pull the pin today” so the union would avoid administrators being sent into the Victorian branch. He had conveyed this to the union’s national secretary Zach Smith.

He claimed there had been talks between Smith, then Workplace Relations minister Tony Burke and ACTU national secretary Sally McManus.

“At twenty to six the call came through, [saying] yes, there’s a deal. Now when you do a deal with the government you expect them to honour it,” Setka said.

“I think Tony Burke has betrayed construction workers in Australia.”

Nine published a series of devastating allegations of criminal infiltration of the union, bullying and bribery. The government immediately made it clear publicly Setka’s resignation and other actions by the union to try to ward off intervention were not enough.

Albanese told a news conference: “Obviously we didn’t make a deal. The evidence is in what’s happened”. The PM said he “not quite sure why people gave [Setka] some more oxygen. But John Setka is someone who will always look for publicity.”

Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather, addressing the Brisbane rally, said: “Labor has used these untested allegations to attack an entire union”.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Government faces likely High Court challenge to its CFMEU legislation – https://theconversation.com/government-faces-likely-high-court-challenge-to-its-cfmeu-legislation-237561

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Lindsey, Malcolm Smith Professor of Asian Law and Director of the Centre for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society, The University of Melbourne

Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, whose final term in office ends on October 20, has presided over ten years of democratic regression in Indonesia.

This has been marked by attacks on – and direct interventions in – the Anti-corruption Commission and the Constitutional Court. Both were formerly key government watchdog institutions. It has also involved intimidating and weakening the civil society organisations that helped deliver democratisation to Indonesia after the fall of former dictator Soeharto in 1998.

Despite this, Jokowi’s popularity has remained at over 70%. In recent years, supporters have even proposed constitutional amendments to allow him to run for a third term. While these did not go anywhere, Jokowi remains determined to maintain power and influence after he leaves office.

This has led to the building of a new alliance with his former rival and the incoming president, Prabowo Subianto, and attempts to create a family political dynasty by helping his sons win office.

Jokowi’s son, the new vice president

These efforts started earlier this year in the lead-up to Indonesia’s presidential election.

Abandoning the party that had backed his rise to power, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Jokowi threw his weight behind Prabowo by offering up his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as Prabowo’s vice presidential candidate.

To achieve this, Jokowi had to rely on his brother-in-law, Anwar Usman, who was chief justice of the Constitutional Court. In a blatantly nepotistic decision, a majority of the court helped Gibran bypass the 40-year minimum age limit for vice presidential candidates.

Usman was removed as chief justice for unethical conduct, but the decision stood. Prabowo and Gibran won in a landslide.

Jokowi and Prabowo’s new alliance, the Advance Indonesia Coalition or KIM, soon became known as KIM-Plus as former political opponents quickly moved to secure a place in the new administration.

Jokowi also seems to have secured a new political base to replace PDI-P. In what some have likened to a “coup”, Airlangga Hartarto, leader of the second-biggest party, Golkar, was accused of corruption and resigned last week. He was swiftly replaced by a Jokowi loyalist, Bahlil Lahadalia.

Another son and ally running for governor

In recent weeks, Jokowi’s ambitions to maintain influence have focused on the regional elections on November 27 and the opportunity to install two KIM-Plus candidates in key gubernatorial positions.

The first is Jokowi ally Ridwan Kamil, former governor of West Java. Jokowi backed him to become Jakarta’s next governor, anticipating this would prevent the re-election of Anies Baswaden, one of Jokowi’s political enemies and critics.

The second is Jokowi’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, who Jokowi was backing to be the next governor of Central Java.

Like his brother Gibran, however, the 29-year-old Kaesang faced an age-based roadblock. Kaeseng was barred from running due to an election law that requires gubernatorial candidates to be at least 30.

But once again, a favourable (but questionable) judicial decision – this time from the Supreme Court – seemed to clear the path for him.

The Supreme Court decided in May that candidates must be 30 at the time of inauguration. This enabled Kaesang to run, given that, if elected, his inauguration would occur after his 30th birthday.

The Constitutional Court weighs in

And then things suddenly came unstuck. The Constitutional Court, which many feel has become cowed and compliant under Jokowi’s rule, handed down two decisions on August 20 that blew up his plans.

In a unanimous decision, the court emphasised the minimum age for gubernatorial candidates applied at the time of nomination as candidate, not the time of inauguration. The court also suggested it might invalidate an election in which an underage candidate ran for office.

In another decision, the court drastically reduced the so-called nomination threshold parties require to put forward candidates for gubernatorial elections.

Under the current electoral law, a political party – whether itself or in coalition with other parties – needed to have either 20% of seats or 25% of total votes in a provincial parliament to field a candidate for governor.

The court reduced this threshold for parties to that of independent candidates. The result is that a party will only need 7.5% of the votes to nominate in Jakarta.

This change matters a lot. It will allow the PDI-P, headed by former President Megawati Soekarnoputri, to nominate a candidate for governor of Jakarta to run against Jokowi’s pick, Ridwan.

And she had been expected to back Jokowi’s rival, Anies.

A proposed law sparks street protests

These decisions led to a quick response. The national legislature (DPR), dominated by Jokowi’s coalition and led by a Jokowi loyalist, Deputy Speaker Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, defiantly announced last week it would immediately pass a new electoral law.

This would have reversed the effect of the Constitutional Court decisions in two ways:

• it would reset the nomination threshold to 20% (which would have blocked PDI-P from nominating a candidate against Ridwan)
• it would set a new age limit of 25 for gubernatorial candidates (which would have enabled Kaesang to run).

The legislature planned to do this, even though Constitutional Court decisions are, by law, “final and binding”.

This contemptuous treatment of the court and Jokowi’s blatant dynastic ambitions triggered a massive response from civil society, which, like the court, had seemed weakened in recent years.

Protesters in Jakarta besieged the DPR, eventually tearing off gates to the legislative complex. Demonstrators holding banners that read “Emergency Warning” and “Democratic Emergency” soon erupted in other cities.

There have certainly been bigger demonstrations in the past against the Jokowi administration’s policies, but, critically, these were enough to stop lawmakers from entering the DPR and forming a quorum.

Dasco eventually announced the new law would be abandoned (for now). Kaesang then announced he would not run for governor of Central Java.

As expected, it was soon reported the PDI-P would nominate a candidate for governor of Jakarta. It still unclear at the time of writing if Megawati will choose Anies or a member of her own party, but either way, Jokowi now can’t be sure his candidate, Ridwan, will win.

What happens next?

Jokowi has suffered a setback in his efforts to consolidate his power – and public humiliation, as well. But he remains a formidable political force and, when the time is right, he will want to respond to these challenges.

A likely target is the Constitutional Court itself. It acted with integrity and courage last week to defy the dominant political elite. But for years, it has been the target of an incremental campaign to undermine its independence through pressure on judges and legislative amendments.

The DPR now has before it a bill to amend the Constitutional Court law. It would not be surprising if this bill makes it easier for the government to remove judges, undermining its independence even further.

Moreover, while civil society groups rallied so effectively last week to stymie Jokowi’s dynastic ambitions, past experience suggests they are unlikely to maintain the momentum necessary to prevent the bill’s passage.

If that happens, last week’s dramatic decisions may well be the court’s last gasp.

Tim Lindsey receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Simon Butt receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Jokowi wants to build a political dynasty in Indonesia. A once-pliant court and angry public are standing in the way – https://theconversation.com/jokowi-wants-to-build-a-political-dynasty-in-indonesia-a-once-pliant-court-and-angry-public-are-standing-in-the-way-237555