It used to be de rigueur for the prime minister and opposition leader to turn up to the National Press Club in the final week of the election campaign. But now Liberal leaders are not so keen.
Scott Morrison gave it a miss in 2022, although he was there in 2019. Nobody expected Peter Dutton, who has often been reluctant to face the Canberra press gallery in the past three years, to front the club this week.
It’s also happened in the past that a leader has said something significantly newsworthy during the Q&A session on these final big occasions.
Bob Hawke, days away from becoming prime minister in 1983, flagged he would be willing to break election promises if he found, on reaching office, that fiscal circumstances were different from what was anticipated. They were, and he did.
Anthony Albanese on Wednesday made his appearance, but he was not going to grab a headline with anything unexpected.
He delivered a spirited stump speech concentrating on everything Labor is offering voters – improvements to Medicare, tax cuts all round, and much else. He played and replayed his familiar mantra about nobody being left behind or held back. When it came to questions, the prime minister defended and deflected.
Are Australians better off than before he was elected? Well, they’d be worse off if Dutton had had his way.
Will whoever is in government need to increase the tax base in the next decade? “We’ll have not one but two income tax cuts.”
Would he consider a compromise on Labor’s plan to tax unrealised capital gains on some superannuation balances? “We have our policy.”
Is there something he regrets from the last three years? “I don’t pretend to be perfect.” So no regrets? “I’m not saying that at all.”
What he is saying is that the final sprint of the campaign is not the time to enter the confessional.
With the polls, and even most Liberals, at least privately, expecting Albanese to still be PM next week, whether in minority or majority government, he knows he has two challenges in these last days: to avoid being caught on any sticky paper, and to continue to project a sense of momentum by going full tilt (Labor people remember Bill Shorten easing up just before polling day in 2019). He is visiting every state, before he votes in his home electorate of Grayndler where, he indicated, his talisman dog Toto will accompany him to the polling booth on Saturday.
Before his press club appearance, Albanese had encouraging news from the latest consumer price index quarterly figures, which showed underlying inflation falling to 2.9%. This points to another cut in interest rates.
Westpac said, “Inflationary pressures have moderated, and the door is open for a rate cut in May”.
The Reserve Bank doesn’t meet until May 19-20, but the prospect of a cut can be a mood lifter for stretched households – just as the pre-campaign February decrease was.
Also able to be cast positively, US President Donald Trump, who has proved elusive in the face of the government’s attempts to get him to pick up the phone to discuss a tariff deal, confirmed a call would come. Asked whether he would speak to Albanese about trade, the president said, “they are calling, and I will talk to him, yes.”
There is no detail of whether, or what, deal could be in the offing, but Trump, by signalling the call, has given (inadvertently) another bit of help to the government in an election in which the “Trump factor” has played all Albanese’s way.
Instead of the press club, Dutton had done an hour’s “Ask Me Anything” appearance on Tuesday with Paul Murray on Sky, taking around a dozen viewers’ questions. It was an easy, friendly gig, directed squarely at his base. That might be one thing if he’s seeking the preferences of those voting One Nation or Trumpet of Patriots, but it is not where the middle-ground swinging voters are.
In this last week, Dutton has put his anger at a section of the media on display. Earlier in the week he lashed out at the ABC, Guardian and “other hate media”.
On Wednesday he doubled down, in a bit of pointed but embittered humour on FM radio when quizzed on tips for a good election night party. “I think alcohol is the first essential ingredient, I’m sure of that. Responsible drinking as well, but not watching the ABC would be a good start. For any young ones listening at home, forget the ABC.”
Dutton’s disdain for the ABC is long-standing and well-known. But in an election campaign, why he thinks it is a good tactic to expose it so blatantly is a mystery. It shows questionable judgement and a lack of discipline.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
New Zealand’s Broadcasting Standards Authority (BSA) has upheld complaints about two 1News reports relating to violence around a football match in Amsterdam between local team Ajax and Israel’s Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The authority found an item on “antisemitic violence” surrounding the match, and another on heightened security in Paris the following week, breached the accuracy standard.
In a majority decision, the BSA upheld a complaint from John Minto on behalf of Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) about reporting on TVNZ’s 6pm 1News bulletin on 9 November 2024.
This comprised a trailer reporting “antisemitic violence”, an introduction by the presenter with “disturbing” footage of violence against Israeli fans described by Amsterdam’s mayor as “an explosion of antisemitism”, and a pre-recorded BBC item.
TVNZ upheld one aspect of this complaint over mischaracterised footage in the trailer and introduction. This was originally reported as showing Israeli fans being attacked, but later corrected by Reuters and other outlets as showing Israeli fans chasing and attacking a Dutch man.
“The footage contributed to a materially misleading impression created by TVNZ’s framing of the events, with an emphasis on antisemitic violence against Israeli fans without acknowledging the role of the Maccabi fans in the violence – despite that being previously reported elsewhere,” the BSA found.
A majority of the authority found TVNZ did not make reasonable efforts to ensure accuracy.
It considered the background to the events was highly sensitive and more care should have been taken to not overstate or adopt, without question, the antisemitic angle.
The minority considered it was reasonable for TVNZ to rely on Reuters, the BBC and Dutch officials’ description of the violence as “antisemitic”, in a story developing overseas in which not all facts were clear at the time of broadcast.
The authority considered TVNZ should have issued a correction when it became aware of the error with the footage. It therefore found the action taken was insufficient, but considered publication of the BSA’s decision to be an adequate remedy in the circumstances.
Western media’s embarrassing failures on Amsterdam violence. Video: AJ’s The Listening Post
In a separate decision, the authority upheld two complaints about a brief 1News item on 15 November 2024 reporting on heightened security in Paris in the week following the violence.
The item reported: “Thousands of police are on the streets of Paris over fears of antisemitic attacks . . . That’s after 60 people were arrested in Amsterdam last week when supporters of a Tel Aviv football team were pursued and beaten by pro-Palestinian protesters.”
TVNZ upheld both complaints under the accuracy standard on the basis the item “lacked the nuance” of earlier reporting on Amsterdam, by omitting to mention the role of the Maccabi fans in the lead-up to the violence.
The authority agreed with this finding but determined TVNZ took insufficient action to remedy the breach.
“The broadcaster accepted more care should have been taken, but did not appear to have taken any action in response, or made any public acknowledgement of the inaccuracy,” the BSA said.
The authority found the framing and focus careless, noting “the role of both sides in the violence had been extensively reported” by the time of the 15 November broadcast. TVNZ had also aired the mischaracterised footage again, not realising Reuters had issued a correction several days earlier.
As TVNZ was not monitoring the Reuters fact-check site, the correction only came to light when the complaints were being investigated.
Other standards raised in the three complaints were not breached or did not apply, the authority found.
The BSA did not consider an order was warranted over the item on November 15 – deciding publication of the decision was sufficient to publicly acknowledge and correct the breach, censure the broadcaster and give guidance to TVNZ and other broadcasters.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ang Li, ARC DECRA and Senior Research Fellow, NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence in Healthy Housing, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne
Across Australia, communities are grappling with climate disasters that are striking more frequently and with greater intensity. Bushfires, floods and cyclones are no longer one-off events. And this pattern is predicted to worsen due to climate change.
As it becomes more common to face climate disasters again and again, what does this mean for the mental health and wellbeing of people affected?
In a new study published today in the Lancet Public Health, we found experiencing repeated disasters leads to more severe and sustained effects on mental health compared to experiencing a single disaster.
Specifically, our study involved data from 1,511 people who experienced at least one disaster. We tracked them from the year before the first disaster, at the first disaster, and, where applicable, each subsequent disaster, and a few years after each disaster.
We also included 3,880 people who did not experience disasters during this time but shared similar demographic, socioeconomic, health and place-based characteristics for comparison.
We measured exposure to climate disasters based on whether respondents reported a weather-related disaster (for example, flood, bushfire or cyclone) damaged or destroyed their home in the previous year.
Our results show mental health declines became more severe with repeated disasters.
The graph below plots the mental health trajectories for everyone in our study who experienced at least one disaster, and the control group who did not experience any disasters. We looked at a maximum of three disasters in the study due to data availability.
It shows experiencing one disaster led to a decline in mental health during the disaster year, followed by a recovery to pre-disaster levels in the post-disaster period.
However, with repeated disasters, mental health trajectories declined further and it took longer to recover to pre-disaster levels.
We also found experiencing an additional disaster close to a previous disaster (for example, one or two years apart) was linked to greater mental health declines than disasters that were spaced further apart.
Some risk factors
We observed that certain factors consistently shaped mental health outcomes. For instance, having social support was consistently a protective factor, while having a long-term health condition consistently increased the risk of poorer mental health. This was true regardless of the number of disasters someone experienced.
On the other hand, some risk factors became stronger with each disaster. In particular, households with lower incomes, those in rural areas, and younger people appeared to experience greater effects of cumulative disasters.
There are some limitations to our research. For example, the data we had did not detail the type or severity of each disaster. It also was limited in what it could tell us about the mental health effects of three or more disasters.
Nonetheless, our study provides novel insights into the mental health consequences of multiple climate disasters. This highlights the need for better support for communities facing an increasing number of emergencies.
At the same time, our findings add a new perspective by showing how trajectories can change over time. People’s mental health often recovers to pre-disaster levels after a single disaster, but repeat disasters can delay or halt this recovery.
Why might repeated disasters lead to worse mental health?
Repeated disasters, especially when they occur in close succession, can lead to cumulative stress driven by trauma and uncertainty. This can create a reinforcing cycle. People already facing social disadvantages – such as poor health and low income – are more likely to be exposed to disasters. In turn, these events disproportionately affect those facing existing disadvantages.
The result is a compounding effect that can contribute to worsening mental health outcomes and slower recovery over multiple disasters. This means disasters are an issue of social equity and must be considered in efforts to reduce poverty and improve social outcomes, as well as health outcomes.
Repeated disasters in particular can drain financial, social and community resources. They can exacerbate existing strain on household savings, disrupted social ties due to displacement, and reduced access to services after disasters – especially in rural areas.
What can we do to support people through multiple disasters?
We need to transform the way we think about disasters. It’s estimated children born today will experience up to seven times the number of extreme weather events across their lifetimes than someone born in 1960.
We are starting to get a better picture of what people need to recover from climate disasters. Our research points to the need for clinical services (for example, GPs) to screen for past disaster exposures in mental health assessments.
Emergency services need to plan services to reach at-risk groups during disasters. They also need to ensure recovery planning considers the effects of past disasters, for example by making sure support programs are not just tied to one disaster, but can be used across multiple.
The current approach to emergency services that looks at “one disaster at a time” doesn’t work anymore. As the climate continues to change, we urgently need to consider the effects of multiple disasters in public health, welfare and disaster services.
Ang Li receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Claire Leppold does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
It would be impossible at this stage in the election campaign to be unaware that housing is a critical, potentially vote-changing, issue. But the suite of policies being proposed by the major parties largely focus on young, first home buyers.
What is glaringly noticeable is the lack of measures to improve availability and affordability for older people.
Modern older lives are diverse, yet older people have become too easily pigeonholed. No more so than in respect to property, where a perception has flourished that older people own more than their fair share of housing wealth.
While the value of housing has no doubt increased, home ownership rates among people reaching retirement age has actually declined since the mid-1990s.
Older people can also face rental stress and homelessness – with almost 20,000 homeless people in Australia aged over 55. Severe housing stress is a key contributing to those homelessness figures.
It’s easy to blame older Australians for causing, or exacerbating, the housing crisis. But doing so ignores the fact that right now, our housing system is badly failing many older people too.
No age limits
Owning a home has traditionally provided financial security for retirees, especially ones relying on the age pension. This is so much so, that home ownership is sometimes described as the “fourth pillar” of Australia’s retirement system.
But housing has become more expensive – to rent or buy – for everyone.
Falling rates of home ownership
combined with carriage of mortgage debt into retirement, restricted access to shrinking stocks of social housing, and lack of housing affordability in the private rental market have a particular impact on older people.
Housing rethink
Housing policy for older Australians has mostly focused on age-specific options, such as retirement villages and aged care. Taking such a limited view excludes other potential solutions from across the broader housing system that should be considered.
Furthermore, not all older people want to live in a retirement village, and fewer than 5% of older people live in residential aged care.
More than 20,000 older Australians are homeless, blamed in part on severe housing stress. Michael Heim/Shutterstock
During my Churchill Fellowship study exploring alternative, affordable models of housing for older people, I discovered three cultural themes that are stopping us from having a productive conversation about housing for older people.
Australia’s tradition of home ownership undervalues renting and treats housing as a commodity, not a basic need. This disadvantages older renters and those on low income.
There’s a stigma regarding welfare in Australia, which influences who is seen as “deserving” and shapes the policy responses.
While widely encouraged, “ageing-in-place” means different things to different people. It can include formal facilities or the family home that needs modifications to make it habitable as someone ages.
These themes are firmly entrenched, often driven by policy narratives such as the primacy of home ownership over renting. In the past 50 years or so, many have come to view welfare, such as social housing, as a last resort, and have aimed to age in their family home or move into a “desirable” retirement village.
Variety is key
A more flexible approach could deliver housing for older Australians that is more varied in design, cost and investment models.
The promises made so far by political parties to help younger home buyers are welcome. However, the housing system is a complex beast and there is no single quick fix solution.
First and foremost, a national housing and homelessness plan is required, which also involves the states and territories. The plan must include explicit consideration of housing options for older people.
Funding for housing developments needs to be more flexible in terms of public-private sector investment and direct government assistance that goes beyond first home buyer incentives.
International models
For inspiration, we could look to Denmark, which has developed numerous co-housing communities.
Co-housing models generally involve self-managing communities where residents have their own private, self-contained home, supported by communal facilities and spaces. They can be developed and designed by the owner or by a social housing provider. They can be age-specific or multi-generational.
Australian policy makers could look to the success of social housing developments in Copenhagen, Denmark. ToniSo/Shutterstock
Funding flexibility, planning and design are key to their success. Institutional investors include
so-called impact investors, who seek social returns and often accept lower financial returns
community housing providers
member-based organisations, such as mutuals and co-operatives.
Government also plays a part by expediting the development process and providing new pathways to more affordable ownership and rental options.
Europe is also leading the way on social housing, where cultural attitudes are different from here.
In Vienna, Austria, more than 60% of residents live in 440,000 socially provided homes. These homes are available for a person’s entire life, with appropriate age-related modifications permitted if required.
At over 20% of the total housing stock, social housing is also a large sector in Denmark, where the state and municipalities support the construction of non-profit housing.
Overcoming stereotyes
Our population is ageing rapidly, and more older people are now renting or facing housing insecurity.
If policymakers continue to ignore their housing needs, even more older people will be at risk of living on the street, and as a result will suffer poor health and social isolation.
Overcoming stereotypes – such as the idea that all older people are wealthy homeowners – is key to building fairer, more inclusive solutions.
This isn’t just about older Australians. It’s about creating a housing system that works for everyone, at every stage of life.
Victoria Cornell is employed by Flinders University, and received The AV Jennings Churchill Fellowship to investigate alternative, affordable models of housing that could help older Australians to age-in-place
Australia’s headline inflation rate held steady at a four-year low of 2.4% in the March quarter, according to official data, adding to the case for a cut in interest rates at the next Reserve Bank board meeting in May.
A key measure of underlying inflation closely watched by the RBA fell to 2.9%, returning to within the 2-3% inflation target band for the first time since 2021.
Financial markets are pricing in a quarter-percentage point cut in the cash rate to 3.85% in May.
The inflation report was the last piece of major economic data before Saturday’s federal election.
Prices are still rising, just at a slower rate
A fall in inflation does not mean prices are falling. Overall, prices are continuing to rise, but at a slower pace.
Moreover, prices continue to rise at a higher rate for some things people notice most, such as meat, fruit and vegetables. Concerns about the high cost of living will not go away. But it is good news for households that prices are now rising less than wages, which are growing by 3.2%.
Some of the CPI components rising fastest are services such as health, which rose 4.1% in the year to March, and education, up 5.7%.
Rents increased by 5.5% over the year, still rapid but less than in 2023 and 2024. The movements differed across the country. Rents were up almost 9% in Perth but fell in Hobart.
New home prices only rose by 1.4% over the year as project-home builders made promotional offers to attract buyers in a more subdued market.
Some of the recent fall in inflation represents the effect of government measures such as temporary electricity rebates and lower public transport fares. These represent some relief for households from cost-of-living pressures. But they may obscure trends in underlying inflationary pressures.
The Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, the trimmed mean measure, removes such impacts by excluding items with the largest price movements up or down. This measure of inflation has fallen to 2.9%, back within the central bank’s target, from 3.3%.
Green light for an interest rate cut
Headline inflation is around the middle of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% medium-term target band. The large 1% quarterly increase in the June quarter of 2024 will drop out of the next annual calculation. So inflation may soon be below the bottom of the band. This has been forecast by Westpac’s economics team (headed by former RBA assistant governor Luci Ellis), for example.
In its most recent published forecast the Reserve Bank expected inflation to be 2.4% in June. So it may be pleased to see it already there for two quarters. It would also be relieved to see the underlying rate back within the target band.
In February, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock conceded the bank had arguably been “late raising interest rates on the way up”. It did not want to be late on the way down.
At its April 1 meeting, the Reserve Bank board called the May 19-20 meeting “an opportune time to revisit the monetary policy setting with the benefit of additional data about inflation” and other factors.
The outlook for global economic activity has weakened as the US’s trade war with China has escalated. The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%.
The negative outlook for the global economy and rising business uncertainty certainly adds weight to the case for an official interest rate cut. It would help Australian businesses weather a possible downturn.
Tariff rises will push up inflation in the US. But there is a bipartisan commitment in Australia not to engage in retaliatory tariff increases. This means there will not be any such inflationary impetus here.
Indeed, as Bullock pointed out in her April press conference, if China diverts exports that are effectively blocked from entering the US to Australia, then the US tariffs may lower inflationary pressures here.
Concerns about the inflationary impact of a weaker Australian dollar have eased in recent days. The currency has rebounded to 64 US cents from its early April low of 59.5 US cents.
The Reserve Bank will, as always, consider a wide range of information in deciding whether to cut interest rates in May. But the single most important piece of information is now giving it the green light.
Market economists expect another couple of rate cuts in 2025 after May, depending on the impact of the erratic US economic policies on the global economy.
What does it mean for the election?
After the CPI release, Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted core inflation was at a three-year low. “This is a powerful demonstration of the progress that Australians have made together in the economy,” he said.
Chalmers will be hoping the Reserve Bank and the electorate share his view. Labor is more likely to be re-elected if voters regard the cost-of-living pressures as abating.
John Hawkins was previously a senior economist in the Reserve Bank.
Stephen Bartos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
One of the highlights of the school year is an overnight excursion or school camp. These can happen as early as Year 3.
While many students are very excited about the chance to go away with their classmates, some may experience anxiety and even fear about being away from home and their usual routines.
Anxiety disorders are the second most common mental disorder among children and adolescents in Australia. One in 14 young people are affected.
Separation anxiety (fear or dread about being separated from caregivers) is the most common anxiety disorder amongst young people in Australia. This affects about 4% of young people aged four to 17. Students with anxiety may refuse to attend the camp. Or they may go and not participate in activities or have periods of intense anxiety.
While these trips are a small part of a young person’s school year, positive and negative experiences can form important beliefs about their self-confidence and independence.
Here are four ways to prepare your anxious child to attend and enjoy camp.
1. Understand the anxieties
Anxiety isn’t a one-size-fits-all condition. For one child, it may be the fear of not fitting in or the dread of being homesick. For another, it may be the fear of being away from parents, believing something bad will happen.
So the first step is to really listen to a child about their anxietty.
Asking open-ended questions, such as “what is the one thing about going to camp that worries you most?” can help to determine their core fear.
Instead, reflect what you hear so they feel understood. For example, “I hear you a really worried about what it will be like to spend the night away from us. You’ve never done this before.”
Ask your child what they are worried about. Maybe it’s a certain activity on camp. Andrew Angelov/Shutterstock
2. Understand the ‘cycle of avoidance’
Anxious people tend to overestimate the likelihood of something terrible happening and underestimate their ability to cope if it occurred.
When a young person sidesteps something scary, they feel initial relief. But this avoidance prevents them from learning the feared situation may not be as dangerous as think. Importantly, they do not get the opportunity to test their coping skills and build confidence. This inadvertently increases their anxiety.
It can help to talk to your child about how avoiding camp might feel better in the short term but it makes fun activities – such as sleepovers or trips – harder in the future.
4. Build the ‘bravery muscle’
You also might want to talk about how you can build the “bravery muscle”.
This involves gradually exposing a child to their fears and building confidence in their ability to cope. This way fears lose their power.
Start with easier tasks. For example, if the main worry is “something bad will happen to mum and dad if I am not with them at night”, start with your child staying with a grandparent while you go out for dinner. Then you could try staying overnight at a grandparent or a trusted friend’s house.
You can also pair these tasks with coping tools. Your child could do a breathing exercise or a grounding excercise, where they focus on things around them, rather than the thoughts and feelings distressing them.
Parents and caregivers are not in this alone. So make sure you talk to your class teacher or year group leader if you haven’t already. Some helpful tips are:
organise a “camp buddy” for the bus ride or to share a tent/room with
organise a “go-to” teacher for your child to gain support from during camp
access information about the accommodation and activities as soon as possible so you can practice. This could include your child camping in a tent with a friend, bike riding, or bush walking.
It’s not expected the steps above will erase your child’s anxiety entirely – that is not realistic. But they can give them coping tools to face their anxiety and come out the other side stronger. School camps can be an exciting experience where a young person may discover they are braver than they thought.
Micah Boerma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Something tells me US president Donald Trump would love to be a Roman emperor. The mythology of unrestrained power with sycophants doing his bidding would be seductive.
But in fact, Roman emperors were heavily constrained by institutions, the economy and popular mood. Yes, some challenged and sidelined the institutions of their day – but this often sparked a powerful backlash.
As someone who’s studied Ancient Rome for years, I’ve recently been asked which Roman emperor was most like Donald Trump. In some ways he’s a pastiche of several Roman leaders.
Julius Caesar
Of course, Julius Caesar was never an emperor. He was a military leader and politician when the Roman Republic was in its death throes.
While Trump has no military experience, some have compared him with Caesar.
English classicist Mary Beard explains the appeal of this comparison for Trump’s foes and supporters alike.
The Roman Republic was originally a system of shared political authority. The Senate, the people and elected magistrates shared power.
But in the first century BC, powerful and charismatic figures became more prominent. The old power-sharing arrangements broke down.
Caesar was the most significant of these figures. He was the ultimate populist who overthrew the conventional means of Republican government. Due to his military successes, vast fortune and enormous popular appeal, Caesar broke the system entirely.
Caesar fast-tracked the development of executive power in one person. This doomed the Roman Republic itself.
Trump has also sidelined key institutions and increased the powers of singular executive government. Threatening judges and the chair of the Federal Reserve are further examples of over-reach.
Trump draws on popular appeal to escape ramifications for these actions. His TV career, political rallies and domination of the news cycle contribute to a cult of personality.
Caesar paid the ultimate price for concentrating executive power in himself. He was stabbed to death by a group of angry senators. The republic, however, was beyond saving.
Caesar and the Roman Republic were different to Trump and America. Caesar was a blue-blood patrician, which Trump isn’t. Rome had its most powerful centuries ahead of it, while America is in decline.
Octavian: the man who became Augustus
Caesar didn’t manage the transition from Republic to autocracy. It was his nephew, Octavian, who did that.
After more than a decade of civil wars following Caesar’s murder in 44 BCE, Octavian became Augustus (27 BCE–14 CE) or emperor.
While he claimed to restore the republic, Augustus exercised ultimate power over the army, political institutions and the courts. He finished the process Caesar and others began, dominating the Senate and once-powerful positions such as consulships.
Augustus’ domination of the entire political system draws parallels with Trump. Some observers liken Trump to Augustus. They see similarities in Trump’s intimidation of institutions (including the courts and media) that provide checks on presidential power.
Augustus also developed a cult of personality, which is a feature of Trump’s rise.
Nero: from populist to pariah
Nero (54–68 CE), a colourful successor of Augustus, employed advisors with no political backgrounds. Epaphroditus, for example, was a former slave who became Nero’s secretary. He controlled the flow of information to and from the emperor. He became very wealthy and was intensely loyal to Nero.
Trump has shown similar instincts. Think of the wide-ranging powers to cut government programs granted to Elon Musk and his inexperienced team.
Like Trump, Nero could entertain a crowd. He publicly sang and recited poetry, which previous emperors never did. The elites detested this but the broader population loved it. Nero also put on lavish palace banquets.
But by the time of his death by suicide aged 30, Nero had isolated everyone.
It’s too simplistic, though, to say Trump is a Nero, as others have done. Trump remains connected to a large support base, as evidenced by his two presidential election victories.
While Roman emperors dominated the institutions of state, they were still constrained by them. Some who fell foul of the army, the most important state institution, met ignominious ends.
Emperor Severus Alexander was murdered in 235 CE by his own troops while clutching his mother’s knees.
Some speculate the US army might intervene to protect the Constitution against Trump. But the army’s relationship to the US government is more complex than in ancient Rome.
Some emperors became unpopular due to their arrogance toward the Senate, court officials and their own bodyguards.
In 96 CE, Domitian was killed in a conspiracy of the court chamberlain. His death was cheered by many due to his autocratic style.
And Emperor Commodus, once popular due to his eccentric antics and public games, was murdered by a champion wrestler in 192 CE. His mistress, Praetorian prefect and court chamberlain arranged it. The Senate declared Commodus a public enemy.
The creeping power of executive authority
The over-reach of executive authority will likely define Trump’s second term. But there are many constraints he can’t ignore. Some of the most powerful operate outside America. Bond-holders, of whom China is the second largest, are a notable example.
The eventual displeasure of support bases may hasten the demise of the Trump phenomenon. I sincerely hope it doesn’t end with the brutality some of the emperors met with.
Executive over-reach and intimidation of key institutions may permanently damage America’s reputation. In the case of ancient Rome, we know the outcomes. What comes next in America is the great unknown.
Peter Edwell receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 30, 2025.
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State of the states: the campaign is almost over, so how has it played out across Australia? Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Clune, Honorary Associate, Government and International Relations, University of Sydney While many Australians have already voted at pre-poll stations and by post, the politicking continues right up until May 3. So what’s happened across the country over the past five weeks? Here, six experts analyse how
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It’s election time, which means the age old “tough on crime” rhetoric is being heralded by many politicians aiming to score votes.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton is pushing for a national public sex offender register. Currently only Western Australia has a registry that is open to the public.
Automatic indefinite detention is a significant change.
Previously, the South Australian attorney-general could apply to the Supreme Court to request an offender be indefinitely detained, if the offender was considered to remain a danger to children and could not be rehabilitated.
The courts would then decide if they would grant the request, basing their decision on medical and other expert evidence.
The changes in SA mean those found guilty of a second serious sexual offence against anyone younger than 17 now receive automatic indefinite detention.
To be considered for release under the new law, an offender needs to show they can control their sexual instincts – so the onus is on them to prove they are not at risk of reoffending.
To achieve this, two court-selected psychologists would have to provide reports demonstrating the offender was both willing and able to resist committing further sex offences.
And if they are ever released, they will be electronically monitored for the rest of their lives.
In addition, registered child sex offenders would be banned from working with anyone under 18.
The new law also strengthens “Carly’s Law”, which focuses on reducing the sexual grooming of children online by adult predators.
Inconsistencies across Australia
The age of legal consent is 16 across Australia, except SA and Tasmania, where it is 17.
In 2024, an Australian Institute of Criminology report highlighted many of the inconsistencies across the country, including terminology and definitions of sexual offences, despite efforts to achieve national regularity.
Each state and territory approaches the problem of child sexual abuse differently.
However, one consideration in sentencing in NSW is whether the sentence could have a “crushing” effect on the offender, and whether they may be entitled to an “element of mercy”.
Certainly, a full life sentence is a significant departure from this position.
Why now?
There is little doubt this is a political move, as these changes were first promised by Labor in the build-up to the 2022 SA election.
Then in January 2025, Labor announced it planned to introduce them in March – right before the federal election.
On the face of it, toughening laws aimed at reducing sexual violence against children is a good thing. No one would argue.
However, the legislation has been fast-tracked in the wake of a number of cases where those previously convicted of a sexual offence against a child reoffended.
One such case is Dylan Lloyd, who is alleged to have assaulted a 12-year-old girl while she travelled alone on a train. Lloyd had previously been convicted of assaulting a 10-year-old girl in 2021, and since then more alleged victims have come forward to police.
Cases such as Lloyd’s are preventable, as in this case Lloyd should still be imprisoned. This is one step forward. But consistency across states is needed and the long-term consequences need considering more fully.
Whether these laws will have the desired deterrent effect has not been answered.
We need to ensure personal and societal factors affecting crime rates, and which influence peoples’ attitudes and behaviours, are not overlooked.
Will the laws be good for the community?
These changes do have the potential to have a meaningful impact, but changing the behaviour of potential offenders is far more complex.
Potential offenders usually don’t consider the law. At a micro level, their behaviour is most affected by biological and psychological factors, including alcohol, drug addiction and mental health issues, as well as social and environmental factors.
In addition, there are numerous human rights and constitutional issues with permanent detention or lifelong monitoring, and the SA government may be walking into a legal minefield now they have removed the possibility of parole.
It would be better to allow judges options for discretion, as the context in which the offending happened is crucial in determining the likelihood of someone being successfully rehabilitated.
Mandatory full life sentences ignore the fact many sex offenders can be successfully rehabilitated.
One study in Queensland, which considered local and global evidence, indicated sexual recidivism can be significant reduced when offenders complete sex offender treatment programs.
Although it costs money to run these programs, the savings outweigh the costs of ongoing incarceration – particularly if we consider indefinite detention.
Black-and-white laws with little room for movement produce unintended and harmful outcomes.
It will be interesting to see how the new laws in SA play out in court and if any other states and territories follow suit.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
While this survival tactic may have saved the resilient sausage dog, it highlights a behaviour that makes many dog owners cringe.
This type of “recycling” is surprisingly common in our canine companions. But why would dogs, even those with full food bowls, choose to indulge in such a revolting habit?
Here’s why some dogs can’t resist a faecal feast, known more technically as coprophagia.
What is coprophagia?
Coprophagia or coprophagy is the scientific term for eating faecal matter (poo). It’s a behaviour displayed across a number of animal species.
Around half of all dogs try eating poo at some stage – either their own, another dog’s, or other animals’. Research suggests about one in four dogs have made it a regular habit.
In wild canids like foxes and wolves, mothers will eat their puppies’ stools to keep dens clean and reduce scents that might attract predators.
As unpalatable as it might seem to us, poo still contains considerable nutrients that offer valuable compounds as a food source when times are tough.
Dogs do have different preferences to us in terms of texture, taste and odour of their food, so we should not be hasty to dismiss what might appeal to them.
Medical reasons
The links between diet, gut flora and diseases that might influence behaviours like coprophagia are still emerging. At this stage, there seems to be no apparent link with age or diet.
There could be underlying health reasons for your dog seeking out a sneaky snack, so do mention it to your vet and get a health check if your dog is known to frequent the kitty litter box, for example.
Punishment in toilet training, living conditions that don’t provide enough to do or room to explore (like kennel facilities), and psychological distress have all been linked to dogs eating their own poo.
Shelters and kennel facilities are often built for hygiene and safety, not to keep dogs’ minds and bodies active. Evgenii Bakhchev/Shutterstock
A strain on relationships
Our typical response to seeing dogs eat any kind of poo ranges from disgust to concern. At best it makes us less likely to want a lick to the face, at worst it can really strain our human-animal bonds.
One study from the United Kingdom showed that dogs eating their own poo after rehoming was in the top ten reasons for the adoption failing in the first four weeks when dogs were returned to the shelter.
Dogs can potentially transmit parasites and bacteria to humans through licking, regardless of whether they eat poo. This serves as a good reminder to ensure your dog receives appropriate parasite control and encourage all household members to follow good hygiene practices, like washing hands before eating.
While Valerie’s tale of survival shows us coprophagia may be life-saving in extreme situations, most of our doggo companions aren’t facing wilderness survival challenges.
Thankfully, coprophagia is often manageable.
Understanding why our dogs might eat poo – whether based on evolutionary instinct, medical issues or psychological triggers – can help us address this canine behaviour with compassion rather than just disgust.
If your dog indulges often, providing appropriate stimulation through regular exercise, social connection with people and other dogs, offering toys and safe chews can help. Sometimes, a trip to the vet might be needed to rule out any underlying health issues.
Offering fun activities is one way to reduce the chance of your dog eating poo. Kojirou Sasaki/Unsplash
Dogs reprimanded for toileting accidents might eat the evidence to avoid future punishment, creating a new problem behaviour. Instead, rewarding your puppy or dog for toileting in the right location (and giving them frequent opportunities to do so) is likely to establish toileting routines you will approve of, making coprophagia less likely.
By the same token, dogs can’t eat what isn’t left lying around. Regular poo-pickups in your yard, dog park, kitty litter box and other likely locations will remove temptation and help set your dog up for success.
If Valerie has taught us anything, it’s that what might be considered our dogs’ most revolting habits are actually remarkable adaptations that deserve our understanding and empathy, even if we can’t rally enthusiastic support.
Mia Cobb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Palestinians do not have the luxury to allow Western moral panic to have its say or impact. Not caving in to this panic is one small, but important, step in building a global Palestine network that is urgently needed, writes Dr Ilan Pappé
ANALYSIS:By Ilan Pappé
Responses in the Western world to the genocide in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank raise a troubling question: why is the official West, and official Western Europe in particular, so indifferent to Palestinian suffering?
Why is the Democratic Party in the US complicit, directly and indirectly, in sustaining the daily inhumanity in Palestine — a complicity so visible that it probably was one reason they lost the election, as the Arab American and progressive vote in key states could, and justifiably so, not forgive the Biden administration for its part in the genocide in the Gaza Strip?
This is a pertinent question, given that we are dealing with a televised genocide that has now been renewed on the ground. It is different from previous periods in which Western indifference and complicity were displayed, either during the Nakba or the long years of occupation since 1967.
During the Nakba and up to 1967, it was not easy to get hold of information, and the oppression after 1967 was mostly incremental, and, as such, was ignored by the Western media and politics, which refused to acknowledge its cumulative effect on the Palestinians.
But these last 18 months are very different. Ignoring the genocide in the Gaza Strip and the ethnic cleansing in the West Bank can only be described as intentional and not due to ignorance.
Both the Israelis’ actions and the discourse that accompanies them are too visible to be ignored, unless politicians, academics, and journalists choose to do so.
This kind of ignorance is, first and foremost, the result of successful Israeli lobbying that thrived on the fertile ground of an European guilt complex, racism and Islamophobia. In the case of the US, it is also the outcome of many years of an effective and ruthless lobbying machine that very few in academia, media, and, in particular, politics, dare to disobey.
The moral panic phenomenon This phenomenon is known in recent scholarship as moral panic, very characteristic of the more conscientious sections of Western societies: intellectuals, journalists, and artists.
Moral panic is a situation in which a person is afraid of adhering to his or her own moral convictions because this would demand some courage that might have consequences. We are not always tested in situations that require courage, or at least integrity. When it does happen, it is in situations where morality is not an abstract idea, but a call for action.
This is why so many Germans were silent when Jews were sent to extermination camps, and this is why white Americans stood by when African Americans were lynched or, earlier on, enslaved and abused.
What is the price that leading Western journalists, veteran politicians, tenured professors, or chief executives of well-known companies would have to pay if they were to blame Israel for committing a genocide in the Gaza Strip?
It seems they are worried about two possible outcomes. The first is being condemned as antisemites or Holocaust deniers. Secondly, they fear an honest response would trigger a discussion that would include the complicity of their country, or Europe, or the West in general, in enabling the genocide and all the criminal policies against the Palestinians that preceded it.
This moral panic leads to some astonishing phenomena. In general, it transforms educated, highly articulate and knowledgeable people into total imbeciles when they talk about Palestine.
It disallows the more perceptive and thoughtful members of the security services from examining Israeli demands to include all Palestinian resistance on a terrorist list, and it dehumanises Palestinian victims in the mainstream media.
On ‘Moral Panic’ and the Courage to Speak – Professor Ilan Pappé examines how fear of professional consequences silences Western voices in the face of genocide in Gaza — and what this reveals about power, complicity, and moral responsibility.
— The Palestine Chronicle (@PalestineChron) April 18, 2025
Lack of compassion The lack of compassion and basic solidarity with the victims of genocide was exposed by the double standards shown by mainstream media in the West, and, in particular, by the more established newspapers in the US, such as The New York Times and The Washington Post.
When the editor of The Palestine Chronicle, Dr Ramzy Baroud, lost 56 members of his family — killed by the Israeli genocidal campaign in the Gaza Strip — not one of his colleagues in American journalism bothered to talk to him or show any interest in hearing about this atrocity.
On the other hand, a fabricated Israeli allegation of a connection between the Chronicle and a family, in whose block of flats hostages were held, triggered huge interest by these outlets.
This imbalance in humanity and solidarity is just one example of the distortions that accompanies moral panic. I have little doubt that the actions against Palestinian or pro-Palestinian students in the US, or against known activists in Britain and France, as well as the arrest of the editor of the Electronic Intifada, Ali Abunimah, in Switzerland, are all manifestations of this distorted moral behaviour.
A similar case unfolded just recently in Australia. Mary Kostakidis, a famous Australian journalist and former prime-time weeknight SBS World News Australia presenter, has been taken to the federal court over her — one should say quite tame — reporting on the situation in the Gaza Strip.
The very fact that the court has not dismissed this allegation upon its arrival shows you how deeply rooted moral panic is in the Global North.
But there is another side to it. Thankfully, there is a much larger group of people who are not afraid of taking the risks involved in clearly stating their support for the Palestinians, and who do show this solidarity while knowing it may lead to suspension, deportation, or even jail time. They are not easily found among the mainstream academia, media, or politics, but they are the authentic voice of their societies in many parts of the Western world.
The Palestinians do not have the luxury of allowing Western moral panic to have its say or impact. Not caving in to this panic is one small but important step in building a global Palestine network that is urgently needed — firstly, to stop the destruction of Palestine and its people, and second, to create the conditions for a decolonised and liberated Palestine in the future.
Dr Ilan Pappéis an Israeli historian, political scientist, and former politician. He is a professor with the College of Social Sciences and International Studies at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, director of the university’s European Centre for Palestine Studies, and co-director of the Exeter Centre for Ethno-Political Studies.This article is republished from The Palestine Chronicle, 19 April 2025.
Did you start 2025 with a promise to eat better but didn’t quite get there? Or maybe you want to branch out from making the same meal every week or the same lunch for work almost every day?
Small dietary changes can make a big difference to how you feel, how your body functions and health indicators such as blood pressure, blood sugar and cholesterol levels.
But you also need a variety of foods to get enough vitamins, minerals and phytonutrients from plant foods. Phytonutrients have antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, anti-cancer and other functions that help keep you healthy.
Use these five dietary tweaks to boost your nutrient intake and add variety to what you eat.
1. Include different types of bran to boost your fibre intake
Different types of dietary fibre help improve bowel function through fermentation by gut microbes in the colon, or large bowel. This creates larger, softer bowel motions that then stimulate the colon to contract, leading to more regular bowel movements.
Add different types of dietary fibre – such as oat bran, wheat bran or psyllium husk – to breakfast cereal or add some into recipes that use white flour:
psyllium husk is high in soluble fibre. It dissolves in water forming viscous gel that binds to bile salts, which get excreted and your body is then not able to convert them into cholesterol. This helps lower blood cholesterol levels as well as with retaining water in your colon, making bowel motions softer. Soluble fibre also helps slow the digestive process, making you feel full and slows the normal rise in blood sugar levels after you eat
wheat bran is an insoluble fibre, also called roughage. It adds bulk to bowel motions, which helps keep your bowel function regular
oat bran contains beta-glucan, a soluble fibre, as well as some insoluble fibre.
Try keeping small containers topped up with the different fibres so you don’t forget to add them regularly to your breakfast.
Psyllium husk is high in soluble fibre, which dissolves in water and slows digestion. Shawn Hempel/Shutterstock
2. Add a different canned bean to your shopping list
Dried beans are a type of legume. From baked beans to red kidney beans and chickpeas, the canned varieties are easy to use and inexpensive. Different colours and varieties have slightly different nutrient and phytonutrient profiles.
Canned beans are very high in total dietary fibre, including soluble fibre and resistant starch, a complex carbohydrate that resists digestion in the small intestine and then passes into the colon where it gets fermented.
The body digests and absorbs the nutrients in legumes slowly, contributing to their low glycemic index. So eating them makes you feel full.
Regularly eating more legumes lowers blood sugar levels, and total and LDL (bad) cholesterol.
Add legumes to dishes such as bolognese, curry, soups and salads (our No Money No Time website has some great recipes).
3. Try a different wholegrain, like buckwheat or 5-grain porridge
Wholegrain products contain all three layers of the grain. Both the inner germ layer and outer bran layer are rich in fibre, vitamins and minerals, while the inner endosperm contains mostly starch (think white flour).
Wholegrains include oats, corn (yes, popcorn too), rye, barley, buckwheat, quinoa, brown rice and foods made with wholegrains, like some breads and breakfast cereals such as rolled oats, muesli and five-grain porridge.
Try adding a new or different vegetable or salad item to your weekly meals, such as rainbow coleslaw, canned beetroot, raw carrot, red onion, avocado or tomatoes.
Or try a stir-fry with bok choy, celery, capsicum, carrot, zucchini and herbs.
The more variety, the more colour, flavour and textures – not to mention phytonutrients.
5. Go nuts
Cashews, walnuts, almonds, macadamias, pecans and mixed nuts make a great snack.
(Peanuts are technically a legume because they grow in the ground but we count them as nuts because their nutrient profile is very similar to the tree nuts.)
Nuts are energy-dense, due to their high fat content. A matchbox portion size (30 grams) contains about 15 grams of fat, 5 grams of protein and 740 kilojoules.
While some people think you need to avoid nuts to lose weight, a review of energy restricted diets found people who ate nuts lost as much weight as those who didn’t.
My colleagues and I at the University of Newcastle have created a free Healthy Eating Quiz where you can check your diet quality score, see how healthy your usual eating patterns are and how your score compares to others. You can also get some great ideas to make your meals more interesting .
Clare Collins AO is a Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics at the University of Newcastle, NSW and a Hunter Medical Research Institute (HMRI) affiliated researcher. She is a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Leadership Fellow and has received research grants from NHMRC, ARC, MRFF, HMRI, Diabetes Australia, Heart Foundation, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, nib foundation, Rijk Zwaan Australia, WA Dept. Health, Meat and Livestock Australia, and Greater Charitable Foundation. She has consulted to SHINE Australia, Novo Nordisk, Quality Bakers, the Sax Institute, Dietitians Australia and the ABC. She was a team member conducting systematic reviews to inform the 2013 Australian Dietary Guidelines update, the Heart Foundation evidence reviews on meat and dietary patterns and current Co-Chair of the Guidelines Development Advisory Committee for Clinical Practice Guidelines for Treatment of Obesity.
Is it possible to reconcile increased international support for Ukraine with Donald Trump’s plan to end the war? At their recent meeting in London, Christopher Luxon and his British counterpart Keir Starmer seemed to think so.
Starmer thanked New Zealand for its “support” for a “coalition of the willing” that would safeguard the implementation of a potential peace deal concluded by the Trump administration.
But unless something drastically changes in the near future, all the signs point to the US president envisaging a Ukraine peace settlement on Russian president Vladimir Putin’s terms.
According to that view, peace can only be achieved if Ukraine is prepared to accept that territories wholly or partially annexed by Russia now belong to Moscow.
In 2014, Russia seized Crimea on the Black Sea. Following the illegal 2022 invasion, Russia claimed four parts of eastern and southern Ukraine as its own – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and the Zaporizhzhia region.
At the same time, Trump’s peace deal includes a provision that rules out NATO membership for Ukraine. This meets a key Russian demand that seeks to deny Ukraine’s sovereign right to choose its own security arrangements.
According to Trump, Putin’s major concession is the promise that Russia will not annex the rest of Ukraine – something Moscow has been trying to do for the past three years.
To accept this, however, liberal democracies such as New Zealand and Britain would be tacitly signalling they share common values and interests with the Trump administration and its apparent enthusiasm for a geopolitical partnership with Putin’s dictatorship.
And in some ways, Trump’s Ukraine peace initiative is a bigger challenge for New Zealand than it is for Britain.
Keir Starmer and Christopher Luxon speak to the media during a visit to a UK military base training Ukrainian troops, April 22. Getty Images
Lessons of the past
Like Britain, New Zealand fought in two world wars in the 20th century to advance, among other things, certain key international principles. These included state sovereignty and a prohibition on the use of force to change borders, principles subsequently enshrined in the United Nations Charter.
But unlike Britain, New Zealand is a relatively small state that does not have a veto in the UN Security Council to protect its interests. Consequently, it is even more dependent on an international rules-based order for its security and prosperity.
For New Zealand, Trump’s current Ukraine peace plan is a clear and present danger because it would set such a terrible precedent.
Under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons (left over from when it was part of the Soviet Union) in return for assurances from Russia, the US and UK that recognised Ukrainian independence and the inviolability of its existing borders.
The Trump administration’s plan, however, insists Ukraine must accept the illegal and partial dismemberment of its territory to attain peace with Russia.
Rewarding Russian aggression in this way is tantamount to a failure to learn the historical lessons of the 20th century. In particular, it seems to forget the period during the 1930s when Britain tried in vain to appease an expansionist Nazi regime in Germany.
Trump’s peace plan basically endorses the idea that “might is right” and that it is fine for great powers or big countries to steal land from smaller countries.
Adjusting NZ foreign policy
In Trump’s top-down world view, multilateral institutions and international law are regarded as superfluous at best and an enemy at worst.
In such a world, relatively small powers such as New Zealand, with “no cards to play” at the top table, must either submit to the dominance of great powers (including the US) or suffer the consequences.
Moreover, there is a real risk that Trump’s stance toward Putin’s regime will be viewed as weakness by China, Russia’s most important backer. This could embolden Beijing to increasingly assert itself in the Indo-Pacific, including the Pacific Islands region, where New Zealand has core strategic interests.
Trump’s plan for Ukraine brings into sharp focus what has already been evident from other recent trends: a domestic slide toward autocracy in Washington, the unilateral imposition of tariffs, and territorial threats against close allies Canada and Denmark.
As European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put it, “The West as we knew it no longer exists.”
The transactional nature of Trump’s leadership – including that peace in Ukraine can be bought with mineral rights and territorial trade-offs – suggests the US can no longer be relied on to provide a security guarantee for liberal democracies in Europe or elsewhere.
The current New Zealand government needs to find the self-confidence and resolve to admit Trump is backing Putin’s imperial project in Ukraine. And it needs to adjust its foreign policy accordingly.
This does not mean Wellington should weaken its traditional friendship with the US.
On the contrary, many Americans might expect and welcome the prospect of New Zealand clearly and publicly standing against their president’s dangerous alignment with an authoritarian regime at Ukraine’s expense.
Robert G. Patman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Earth’s cycles of light and dark profoundly affect billions of organisms. Events such as solar eclipses are known to bring about marked shifts in animals, but do they have the same effect on plants?
During a solar eclipse in a forest in Italy’s Dolomites region, scientists seized the chance to explore that fascinating question.
The researchers were monitoring the bioelectrical impulses of spruce trees, when a solar eclipse passed over. They left their sensors running to record the trees’ response to the eclipse – and what they observed was astonishing.
The spruce trees not only responded to the solar eclipse – they actively anticipated it, by synchronising their bioelectrical signals hours in advance.
This forest-wide phenomenon, detailed today in the journal Royal Society Open Science, reveals a new layer of complexity in plant behaviour. It adds to emerging evidence that plants actively participate in their ecosystems.
Lead author Monica Gagliano discusses the research findings.
Do trees respond collectively?
The research was led by Professor Alessandro Chiolerio of the Italian Institute of Technology, and Professor Monica Gagliano from Australia’s Southern Cross University, who is the lead author on this article. It also involved a team of international scientists.
A solar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes between the Sun and Earth, fully or partially blocking the Sun’s light.
An eclipse can inspire awe and even social cohesion in humans. Other animals have been shown to gather and synchronise their movements during such an event.
But scientists know very little about how plants respond to solar eclipses. Some research suggests the rapid transitions from darkness to light during an eclipse can change plant behaviour. But this research focuses on the responses of individual plants.
The latest study set out to discover if trees respond to a solar eclipse together, as a living collective.
Alessandro Chiolerio and Monica Gagliano at the site of the study. Simone Cargnoni
The electrical activity is primarily driven by the movement of ions across cell membranes. It creates tiny currents that allow organisms, including humans, to coordinate their body and communicate.
The researchers wanted to investigated the electrical signals of spruce trees (Picea abies) during a partial solar eclipse on October 25, 2022. It took place in the Costa Bocche forest near Paneveggio in the Dolomites area, Italy.
The study took place in the Dolomites in northeast Italy. Monica Gagliano
The scientists set out to understand the trees’ electrical activity during the hour-long eclipse. They used custom-built sensors and wired them to three trees. Two were healthy trees about 70 years old, one in full sun and one in full shade. The third was a healthy tree about 20 years old, in full shade.
They also attached the sensors to five tree stumps – the remnants old trees, originally part of a pristine forest, but which were devastated by a storm several years earlier.
For each tree and stump, the researchers used five pairs of electrodes, placed in both the inner and outer layers of the tree, including on exposed roots, branches and trunks. The electrodes were connected to the sensors.
This set-up allowed the scientists to monitor the bioelectrical activity from multiple trees and stumps across four sites during the solar eclipse. They examined both individual tree responses, and bioelectrical signals between trees.
In particular, the scientists measured changes in the trees’ “bioelectrical potentials”. This term refers to the differences in voltage across cell membranes.
The scientists attached electrodes and sensors to the trees to monitor their electrical activity. Zenit Arti Audiovisive
What did they find?
The electrical activity of all three trees became significantly more synchronised around the eclipse – both before and during the one-hour event. These changes occur at a microscopic level, such as inside water and lymph molecules in the tree.
The two older trees in the study had a much more pronounced early response to the impending eclipse than the young tree. This suggests older trees may have developed mechanisms to anticipate and respond to such events, similar to their responses to seasonal changes.
Solar eclipses may seem rare from a human perspective, but they follow cycles which can occur well within the lifespan of long-lived trees. The scientists also detected bioelectrical waves travelling between the trees. This suggests older trees may transmit their ecological knowledge to younger trees.
Such a dynamic is consistent with studies showing long-distance signalling between plants can help them coordinate various physiological functions in response to environmental changes.
The two older spruce trees in the study had a much more pronounced early response to the impending eclipse than the young tree. Zenith Audiovisual Arts
The researchers also detected changes in the bioelectrical responses of the stumps during the eclipse, albeit less pronounced than in the standing trees. This suggests the stumps were still alive.
The research team then used computer modelling, and advanced analytical methods including quantum field theory, to test the findings of the physical experiment.
The results reinforced the experimental results. That is, not only did the eclipse influence the bioelectrical responses of individual trees, the activity was correlated. This suggests a cohesive, organism-like reaction at the forest scale.
The researchers also detected changes in the bioelectrical responses of the stumps during the eclipse. Zenit Arti Audiovisive
Understanding forest connections
These findings align with extensive priorresearch by others, highlighting the extent to which trees in forest ecosystems are connected.
These behaviours may ultimately influence the forest ecosystem’s resilience, biodiversity and overall function, by helping it cope with rapid and unpredictable changes.
The findings also underscore the importance of protecting older forests, which serve as pillars of ecosystem resilience – potentially preserving and transmitting invaluable ecological knowledge.
This research is featured in a documentary, Il Codice del Bosco (The Forest Code), premiering in Italy on May 1, 2025.
The findings underscore the importance of protecting older forests. Pictured: the Dolomites region. Zenith Audiovisual Arts
Monica Gagliano received funding for this research from the Templeton World Charity Foundation.
Prudence Gibson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Greenpeace has condemned an announcement by The Metals Company to submit the first application to commercially mine the seabed.
“The first application to commercially mine the seabed will be remembered as an act of total disregard for international law and scientific consensus,” said Greenpeace International senior campaigner Louisa Casson.
“This unilateral US effort to carve up the Pacific Ocean already faces fierce international opposition. Governments around the world must now step up to defend international rules and cooperation against rogue deep sea mining.
“Leaders will be meeting at the UN Oceans Conference in Nice in June where they must speak with one voice in support of a moratorium on this reckless industry.”
Greenpeace Aotearoa spokesperson Juressa Lee said: “The disastrous effects of deep sea mining recognise no international borders in the ocean.
“This will be another case of short-term profits for a very few, from the Global North, with the Pacific bearing the destructive impacts for generations to come.”
Bypassed ISA rules Trump’s action bypasses the International Seabed Authority (ISA), the regulatory body which protects the deep sea and decides whether deep sea mining can take place in international waters.
“The Metals Company and Donald Trump are wilfully ignoring the rules-based international order and the science that deep sea mining will wreak havoc on the oceans,”said Lee.
“Pacific Peoples have deep cultural ties to the ocean, and we regard ‘home’ as more ocean than land. Our ancestors were wayfarers and ocean custodians who have traversed the Pacific and protected our livelihoods for future generations.
“This is the Indigenous knowledge we should be led by, to safeguard our planet and our environment. Deep sea mining is not the answer to the green transition away from carbon-based fossil fuels — it’s another false solution.”
President Trump’s order follows negotiations in March at the ISA, at which governments refused to give wannabe miners The Metals Company a clear pathway to an approved mining application via the ISA.
Thirty two countries around the world publicly support a moratorium on deep sea mining.
Millions of people have spoken out against this dangerous emerging industry.
While many Australians have already voted at pre-poll stations and by post, the politicking continues right up until May 3.
So what’s happened across the country over the past five weeks?
Here, six experts analyse how the campaign has looked in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia.
New South Wales
David Clune, honorary associate, government and international relations, University of Sydney
The campaign in NSW is concluding much as it began, largely mirroring the Australia-wide trend with little evidence of localism.
The main themes of both sides remain similar: cost-of-living alleviation, improved health care and housing affordability. Both leaders quickly matched each other’s promises: it could be described as the “Albanutton” campaign.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s campaign continued to be hampered by slip-ups and a lack of focus, detail and discipline. Although the government’s record had given him plenty of scope, Dutton struggled to land a blow.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had his share of gaffes, but appeared more coherent and convincing. Labor’s negative campaign to portray Dutton as a local Trump clone seems to have been effective.
Some in the Liberal Party argue there’s pent-up resentment against the government in Western Sydney that hasn’t been picked up by opinion polls. Whether this hypothetical backlash turns into seats on polling day remains to be seen.
Bennelong (notionally Liberal after the redistribution) and Gilmore, seem the most likely Liberal gains. Parramatta, Reid, Paterson, Robertson and Werriwa are also in play. There is speculation about an independent threat in the safe Labor seat of McMahon.
The Coalition has a fight on its hands to retain Cowper and Bradfield, with strong independent challenges in both seats. There is a tight three-way contest in Calare between former National turned independent, Andrew Gee, a National and a Teal.
As there is little real policy differentiation between the major parties; it seems to come down to which side the voters find more credible and trustworthy in uncertain times.
According to a Newspoll published on April 27, Albanese led Dutton as preferred prime minister by 51% to 35%. Only 39% of those surveyed believed the government deserved to be re-elected. However, 62% believed the Coalition was not ready to govern.
An aggregate of polling data showed in NSW, as at April 28, Labor’s two-party preferred vote was 53.0%, an increase since the March Budget of 2.8% and of 1.6% since the 2022 election.
Queensland
Paul Williams, associate professor of politics and journalism, Griffith University
In the campaign’s closing week, Queensland remains largely inconsequential as to whether Albanese or Dutton will call The Lodge home.
But that doesn’t mean the Liberal National Party (LNP) isn’t concerned about its prospects north of the Tweed.
While the LNP still leads Labor in the two party-preferred vote, 54 to 46, across Queensland – roughly the 2022 result – last week’s YouGov poll found that result to be a three-point fall for the LNP from the previous week.
While Labor is hardly going to blitz Queensland, some LNP seats are nonetheless more vulnerable than at any time over the past decade. These include the regional seats of Leichhardt (3.4 %) and Flynn (3.8%), the outer suburban seats of Dickson (held by Dutton by just 1.7%), Longman (3.1%), Forde (4.2%) and Petrie (4.4%), and the middle-suburb mortgage-belt seat of Bonner (3.4%).
Independent Suzie Holt might also worry the LNP in the usually safe seat of Groom, around Toowoomba.
But the last-minute “rescue” of the LNP by Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) – Hanson (reciprocating the LNP’s preferencing of PHON) pulped existing how to vote cards and printed new ones placing the LNP second in most seats – might just save the opposition.
However, the campaign has offered little clarity on the prospects in other key Queensland contests: the battles for three Greens-held inner-urban seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith.
But a mid-April DemosAU poll found the Greens’ primary vote falling by 1.7 points to 29%, a figure exactly tied with Labor’s, which has risen 2.7% since 2022.
Problematically for Dutton, the LNP, whose primary vote remains locked at 36%, appears not to have capitalised on cost-of-living angst in inner Brisbane.
Despite 58% of inner Brisbane leaning centre-left, these figures suggest the LNP may fail to win any Greens seats, with the contest a close one between the Greens and Labor only. The result rests on who runs third: Labor or the Greens. There could be a mere 100 votes in these must-watch seats.
In the Northern Territory, the seat of Lingiari, which takes in Alice Springs and Katherine, is held by Labor’s Marion Scrymgour by 1.7%. In 2022, just one in three enrolled voters cast a ballot in the electorate, prompting the Australian Electoral Commission to try to increase voter turnout. In the wash-up, it will be interesting to see if this improves.
South Australia
Rob Manwaring, associate professor of politics and public policy, Flinders University
Given SA is home to only a handful of marginal seats, it’s not a well-trodden part of the campaign trail. That’s typical of most federal elections.
What’s not so typical is the overall feel of the campaign. The rhythms of Australian elections are changing. On one level, there are the familiar tropes and activities; TV debates, campaign launches and letter box blitzes in key marginal seats.
Yet, on the other hand, voters behave differently than they used to. Data from the Australian Election Study(AES) tells us far fewer voters have made their decision “a long time ago” (55% in 2007, down to 36% in 2022).
This means the number of “soft” voters is probably much higher as major parties have fewer “lifetime voters”. Voters are much more transactional.
Voters are more distanced from parties, too. The study shows fewer voters use how to vote cards (51% used them in 2007, 31% in 2022). We can’t rely on traditional metrics in the same way, such as the national two-party preferred vote given the number of “non-traditional seats”.
In short, it’s now harder to more know how the campaigns are tracking. So while the Coalition campaign has been beset by a number of mis-steps, how this is playing out is far less clear.
Further, a strange paradox of the emergence of the Teals and other independents is there is a stronger local focus on representation, rather than broader policy debates. Again, AES data suggests most voters tend to vote for policy reasons (like the economy or health) but the current media focus on the major parties, especially through the TV debates, actually seems to narrow the broader policy discussions.
So while the proof will be in the pudding when the votes are counted, it may be high time to reflect on what campaign strategies work best for politics in 2025.
Tasmania
Robert Hortle, deputy director of the Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania
In Lyons, Tassie’s most marginal electorate (ALP by 0.9%), the latest polls have swung behind the ALP’s Rebecca White. Her popularity as a state MP for the electorate has been bolstered by some crucial slip ups from Liberal candidate Susie Bower.
One potentially vote-winning policy announcement that has gone under the radar nationally is Labor’s commitment of $24 million to guarantee the continued operation of the Boyer Paper Mill in Lyons, an important employer and regional symbol of economic activity.
Franklin has been full of drama. 19-year-old Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald had to withdraw his candidacy after it emerged that he is likely to still be a New Zealand citizen. It seemed like the Greens would encourage their voters to preference independent anti-salmon candidate Peter George.
However, when the party’s how to vote cards were published, they said “Vote 1 – Owen Fitzgerald”.
According to the Greens, this was to make sure that voters completed their ballot correctly. The Liberal Party argued the Greens were just trying to secure public funding.
The result is likely to rest on how Liberal voters feel about salmon farming and how this influences their preferences. Are they so anti-Labor that they will preference Peter George ahead of Julie Collins despite his anti-salmon stance? Or will they put Collins ahead of George based on Labor’s support for the industry?
In Braddon, where salmon farming is again a key issue, Labor’s Anne Urquhart has been more visible on the campaign trail than Liberal Mal Hingston. Although the margin at the last election was 8% in favour of the Liberals, last-minute polling (albeit with a small sample size) has offered Labor hope of winning the crucial seat.
Bridget Archer, Liberal MP for Bass, has had a solid if unspectacular campaign. She was helped by Labor selecting a low-profile first-time candidate, Jess Teesdale, who the party sees as “one for the future”. Teesdale revealed her “greenness” – in both senses of the word – by accidentally contradicting the ALP’s position on native forest logging, which is always a flashpoint in Tassie.
Victoria
Zareh Ghazarian, senior lecturer in politics, school of social sciences, Monash University
With just days to go in this campaign, Victoria still looks like a key state that will determine who governs for the next three years. Many seats across the state have new boundaries following the AEC redistribution.
Victoria is also home to the most marginal seat in the country. Deakin, which covers the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, is held by Liberal Michael Sukkar with a margin of just 0.02%, according to ABC Election Analyst Antony Green.
Deakin will be the seat to watch on election night. If the Liberal Party can’t hold on to Deakin, it would be unlikely to be able to win government.
There are also other seats that will provide a fascinating contest on Saturday night. Labor will face its own test in trying to retain Chisholm and Aston, both in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne.
Chisholm is a swinging seat. It has been won by both Labor and Liberal parties over the past 40 years and is currently held by Labor with a margin of 3.3%. It has had a significant redistribution, losing strong Labor booths in the north and south parts of the electorate.
Aston is also on a similarly slim margin of 3.6% and was famously won by Labor at the by-election in 2023. Holding onto Aston will be a crucial test for Labor. Losing this seat may threaten Labor’s chances of forming a majority government after the election.
There are also the two seats held by the independents which promise to be tight contests. The previously safe Liberal seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, which were won by Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel respectively, have been targeted by the Liberal Party. The independents will face a significant battle and, if successful, will demonstrate a significant shift in voting behaviour has occurred in these electorates.
Western Australia
Narelle Miragliotta, associate professor in politics, Murdoch University
The idea that WA would determine the outcome of government has been a persistent theme throughout the campaign, reinforced by four visits from Albanese and three from Dutton. The amount of attention WA has received from the major party leaders was more than any state or territory other than the three big population states: NSW, Victoria and Queensland. Even then, Albanese made one more visit to WA than he did Queensland at the time of writing.
Both major parties brought their big guns on the campaign trail. Former Liberal PM John Howard visited Curtin, Tangney and Bullwinkel. The newly re-elected WA Labor Premier Roger Cook campaigned heavily with Albanese during his visits. And in the final days of the campaign, Mark McGowan, the popular former premier, was seen on the hustings with Labor candidates in four marginal seats.
Neither major party leader ventured to places where they might receive an unwelcome reception. Dutton’s intention to steer clear of the Shire of Collie, particularly the town of Muja, the proposed site of the one of the seven nuclear power plants, was signalled early in the campaign. Albanese avoided electorates in the state’s southwest opposed to coastal wind farms.
There were no significant candidate blunders. However, questions were raised about the whereabouts of Andrew Hastie, shadow defence minister and (putative) future Liberal leader. Hastie was also questioned about the missing party logo (as against party authorisations) on his campaign materials.
The competition between the Nationals and Liberals in the seat of Bullwinkel was without major media incident. This includes when the Nationals’ candidate, Mia Davies, broke with the federal coalition over support for Labor’s production tax credits plan.
The contest for Curtin attracted outsized local media attention. In the final days of the campaign, there were renewed efforts to link the independent incumbent, Kate Chaney, to the Greens. All the proof the West Australian newspaper required was Chaney’s connection to a senior Greens party official, evidenced by a 2024 donation totalling $104, a photo and an author’s credit.
To what extent has the leader visits and the campaign moved the needle? A recent study found party leader visits make only a modest impact on the vote. Polling for Labor and the Liberals in WA has remained very steady. This doesn’t mean some seats won’t change, but to which party or candidate remains unclear.
Paul Williams is a research associate with the T.J. Ryan Foundation.
David Clune, Narelle Miragliotta, Rob Manwaring, Robert Hortle, and Zareh Ghazarian do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
According to a study from the United States, women experience weight stigma in maternity care at almost every visit. We expect this experience to be similar in Australia, where more than 50% of women of reproductive age live in larger bodies.
Weight stigma can present as stereotyping, negative attitudes and discriminatory actions towards larger-bodied people.
It occurs in other areas of health care and in society at large. But our research is focused on weight stigma in maternity care, which can cause significant harm for larger-bodied women and their babies.
What does weight stigma look like in maternity care?
Sometimes weight stigma is explicit, or on purpose. Explicit weight stigma includes health-care professionals having negative attitudes towards caring for larger-bodied pregnant women. This might present, for instance, when health professionals make negative comments about weight or accuse women of dishonesty when they discuss their dietary intake.
Sometimes weight stigma is implicit, or unintentional. Implicit weight stigma includes maternity care providers avoiding physical touch or eye contact during consultations with larger-bodied women.
Policies, guidelines and environments also contribute to weight stigma. Women in larger bodies frequently report feeling stigmatised and unable to access the type of maternity care they would prefer. Lack of availability of adequately fitting hospital clothing or delivery beds are other notable examples.
In a review published last year, we looked at weight stigma from preconception to after birth. Our results showed larger-bodied women are sometimes automatically treated as high-risk and undergo extra monitoring of their pregnancy even when they have no other risk factors that require monitoring.
This approach is problematic because it focuses on body size rather than health, placing responsibility on the woman and disregarding other complex determinants of health.
One doctor told me I was terrible for getting pregnant at my weight, that I was setting up my baby to fail […] I was in tears, and he told me I was being too sensitive.
A 2023 Australian paper written by women who had experienced weight stigma in maternity care recounted their care as hyper-focused on weight and dehumanising, robbing them of the joy of pregnancy.
According to one woman, “there was no compassion or conversation, just blame”.
Beyond making women feel humiliated and disrespected, weight stigma in maternity care can affect mental health. For example, weight stigma is linked to increased risk of depressive symptoms and stress, disordered eating behaviours and emotional eating.
One of the key reasons why weight stigma is so damaging to pregnant women’s health is because it’s closely linked to body image concerns.
Society unfairly holds larger-bodied women up to unrealistic ideals around their body shape and size, their suitability to be a mother, and the control they have over their weight gain.
Self stigma occurs when women apply society’s stigmatising narrative – from people in the community, the media, peers, family members and health-care providers – to themselves.
Larger-bodied pregnant women can face stigma from health-care professionals and society at large. antoniodiaz/Shutterstock
While we know these things can also be linked to higher body weight, emerging evidence shows weight stigma may have a stronger link with some outcomes than body mass index.
There are a variety of possible reasons for these links. For example, weight stigma may result in delayed access to and engagement with health-care services, and, as shown above, poorer mental health and reduced confidence. This may mean a woman is less likely to initiate and seek help with breastfeeding, for example.
In turn, the adverse effects of weight stigma can also affect the baby’s health. For example, gestational diabetes has a range of potential negative outcomes including a higher likelihood of premature birth, difficulties during birth, and an increased risk of the child developing type 2 diabetes.
But the burden and blame should not fall on women. Pregnant and postpartum women should not have to accept experiences of weight stigma in health care.
Weight stigma in maternity care has been linked to a higher likelihood of caesarean birth. photosoria/Shutterstock
What can we do about it?
While it’s essential to address weight stigma as a societal issue, health services can play a key role in undoing the narrative of blame and shame and making maternity care more equitable for larger-bodied women.
Addressing weight stigma in maternity care can start with teaching midwives and obstetricians about weight stigma – what it is, where it happens, and how it can be minimised in practice.
We worked with women who had experienced weight stigma in maternity care and midwives to co-design resources to meet this need. Both women and midwives wanted resources that could be easily integrated into practice, acted as consistent reminders to be size-friendly, and met midwives’ knowledge gaps.
The resources included a short podcast about weight stigma in maternity care and images of healthy, larger-bodied pregnant women to demonstrate the most likely outcome is a healthy pregnancy. Midwives evaluated the resources positively and they are ready to be implemented into practice.
There is a long road to ending weight stigma in maternity care, but working towards this goal will benefit countless mothers and their babies.
Briony Hill receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Some research reported in this article was funded by the Australian Prevention Partnership Centre. The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre was supported through the NHMRC partnership centre grant scheme with the Australian Government Department of Health, ACT Health, Cancer Council Australia, NSW Ministry of Health, Wellbeing SA, Tasmanian Department of Health, and VicHealth. It is administered by the Sax Institute.
Haimanot Hailu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Magnus Söderberg, Professor & Director, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith University
In an otherwise unremarkable election campaign, the major parties are promising sharply different energy blueprints for Australia. Labor is pitching a high-renewables future powered largely by wind, solar, hydroelectricity and batteries. The Coalition wants more gas and coal now, and would build nuclear power later.
So how might these two competing visions play out as Australia goes to the polls this Saturday?
Research shows clear generational preferences when it comes to producing electricity. Younger Australians prefer renewables while older people favour coal and gas. The one exception is nuclear power, which is split much more on gender lines than age – 51% of Australian men support it, but just 26% of women.
While many voters are focused squarely on the cost of living, energy prices feed directly into how much everything costs. Research has shown that as power prices rise, the more likely it is an incumbent government will be turfed out.
Coal, renewables or nuclear?
About half of young Australians (18–34) want the country powered by renewables by 2030, according to a 2023 survey of energy consumers. Only 13% of the youngest (18–24) group think there’s no need to change or that it’s impossible. But resistance increases directly with age. From retirement age and up, 29% favour a renewable grid by 2030 while 44% think there’s no need or that it’s impossible.
On nuclear, the divide is less clear. The Coalition has promised to build Australia’s first nuclear reactors if elected, and Coalition leader Peter Dutton has claimed young people back nuclear. That’s based on a Newspoll survey showing almost two-thirds (65%) of Australians aged 18–34 supported nuclear power.
But other polls give a quite different story: 46% support for nuclear by younger Australians in an Essential poll compared to 56% support by older Australians. A Savanta poll put young support at just 36%.
There’s a gender component too. The demographic most opposed to nuclear are women over 55.
Younger voters remain strongly committed to environmental goals – but they’re also wary of cost blowouts and electricity price rises. Some see nuclear as a zero emissions technology able to help with the clean energy transition.
Older Australians are more likely to be sceptical of nuclear power. This is likely due to nuclear disasters such as Chernobyl as well as the prospect of nuclear war during the Cold War.
It’s an open question how robust support for nuclear would be if the Coalition was elected and began the long, expensive process of construction. New findings by the National Climate Action Survey shows almost 40% of Australians would be “extremely concerned” if a nuclear power plant was built within 50 kilometres of their homes and another 16% “very concerned”.
These energy preferences aren’t just found in Australia. In recent research my co-authors and I found a clear divide in Sweden: younger favour renewables and nuclear, older favour fossil fuels. Why the difference? Sweden already gets about 40% of its power from nuclear, while renewables now provide about 40% of Australia’s power.
We found younger Swedes strongly favoured renewables – but also supported nuclear power, especially when electricity prices rose. That is because nuclear is perceived to stabilise the supply of electricity. They wanted clean energy, as long as it was reliable and affordable. Our study found older people were not necessarily pro-fossil fuels, but were more focused on keeping energy affordable – especially for businesses and industry.
When electricity prices rose in Sweden, our survey respondents broadly became less concerned about climate change and more likely to be favourable to nuclear energy.
In Australia, the cost of the clean energy transition has crept up. While solar and wind offer cheap power once built, there are hidden costs.
If electricity prices keep rising, we should expect to see declining support for the clean energy transition.
Overcoming the energy divide
During Australia’s decade-long climate wars from roughly 2012 to 2022, climate change was heavily politicised and energy became a political football. Under a Coalition government in 2014, Australia became the first nation to abolish a carbon tax.
Labor took office in 2022 pledging to end the climate wars and fast-track the clean energy transition. But the Coalition has opened up a new divide on energy by proposing nuclear power by the 2040s and more gas and coal in the meantime.
This election, the cost of living is the single biggest issue for 25% of voters in the ABC’s Vote Compass poll. But climate change is still the main concern for about 8% of voters, energy for 4% and the environment 3.5%. Here, Coalition backing for fossil fuels and nuclear may attract some older and younger voters but repel others. Labor’s renewable transition may attract younger voters but lose older energy traditionalists.
Energy preferences could play out through a cost of living lens. Parties pushing too hard on green policies this election risk alienating older voters concerned about rising costs. But going nuclear would be very expensive, and keeping old coal plants going isn’t cheap. Downplaying climate action or dismissing nuclear outright could alienate some younger Australians, who are climate-conscious and energy-savvy.
Policymakers should resist framing energy as a zero-sum game. There is a path forward which can unite generations: coupling ambitious climate targets with pragmatic policies to protect consumers. Transitional supports such as energy rebates, time-of-use pricing or community-scale renewables and batteries can soften any economic impact while building public trust.
Our research suggests electricity price rises can quickly erode support even for well-designed energy policies.
As Australia navigates a complex and costly transition, keeping both younger and older generations on board may be the greatest political – and moral – challenge of all.
Magnus Söderberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
US President Donald Trump declared earlier this year he would forge a “colour blind and merit-based society”.
His executive order was part of a broader policy directing the US military, federal agencies and other public institutions to abandon diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives.
Framing this as restoring fairness, neutrality and strength to American institutions, Trump argued DEI programs “discourage merit and leadership” and amounted to “race-based and sex-based discrimination”.
In Australia too, debates over gender quotas and “the war on woke” have repeatedly invoked meritocracy as a rallying cry against affirmative action.
The narrative of rewards going to the most qualified people is compelling. Yet decades of research show this is flawed. Far from being the great equaliser, an uncritical reliance on “merit” can perpetuate bias and inequality.
The myths of meritocracy
The merit rhetoric invokes the ideal of a neutral, objective system rewarding talent and effort, regardless of identity.
In theory, merit-based evaluations such as exams, performance reviews, employee recruitment processes and competitive bids, should be impartial.
In practice however, there are several myths associated with the notion of merit.
1. Merit is purely objective or unbiased. In the employment context for example, studies show that even so-called objective and standardised cognitive or aptitude tests can systematically favour men due to the type of questions asked.
Decision-makers may unknowingly redefine merit to fit whoever already belongs to a favoured group. A study of elite law firms, for example, found male applicants were rated as more qualified than identical resumes from women.
This is known as “plasticity of merit”, meaning the criteria of excellence can bend to preference, all while appearing objective.
Supposedly merit-based judgments can reflect unconscious bias, or comfort with candidates who fit a traditional mould. Over time, preference may be given to a particular type of candidate irrespective of their actual contribution. Privilege and prejudice can be baked into merit-based evaluations.
In reality however, past inequalities shape present opportunities. What counts as merit is dynamic and socially shaped, not an eternal universal standard.
For example, during the second world war there was a shortage of male workers. Qualities women brought to jobs previously held by men such as capacity for teamwork were suddenly deemed meritorious. But these same qualities were downgraded when the men returned.
Merit is often defined in masculine terms. For example, physicality or hyper-competitive traits have long been seen as prerequisites for military service and policing.
Merit is often defined in masculine terms commonly associated with military, policing and firefighting services. Charnsitr/Shutterstock
This alignment of masculine norms with standards of merit has been termed “benchmark man”.
Science careers too were built in an era when women were largely excluded. They were predicated on long-hours work and total availability – requirements that clash with caregiving responsibilities. The result is women in STEM careers leave or are pushed out.
3. Outcomes are the result of personal choice or deficiencies, not structural barriers. Meritocracy carries a moral narrative: those at the top earned their place while those left behind didn’t measure up or chose not to compete.
Research shows, for example, that when women don’t advance, it’s explained as lifestyle choices, or they lack ambition, or have opted out to prioritise caregiving.
This narrative wilfully overlooks the structural constraints impacting choices. When a woman “chooses” a lower-paying, flexible job, it may be less about preference than inadequate social supports.
By accepting unequal outcomes as the natural result of individual choices, institutions can conveniently obscure disadvantage and discrimination and erase responsibility to correct inequities.
How the merit mandate undermines equality
Trump’s vision is to remove equity initiatives and programs that monitor or encourage fair hiring and promotion, cease training that alerts employees to hidden biases, and fire or reassign DEI staff.
This is conceptually flawed and will actually entrench the very biases and barriers that have kept institutions unequal.
In the military, for example – an area highlighted by Trump – leaders have recognised they need to foster more inclusive cultures.
For years, defence forces have grappled with sexual harassment, recruitment shortfalls and retention of skilled personnel. In Australia, the Australian Defence Force undertook major reviews to identify violent and sexist subcultures, understanding a more inclusive force is a more effective force.
Yet Trump’s order bars the Pentagon from even acknowledging historical sexism in the ranks.
Favouring the in-group
Removing equity measures under a banner of neutrality means hiring and promotion will increasingly rely on informal networks and subjective judgements. These can tilt in favour of the in-group – usually white, male and affluent.
DEI initiatives can increase representation of women, or people from diverse racial or cultural backgrounds, in an organisation or occupational group.
However, without challenging the norms of merit, or without broadening the definitions of talent and leadership, people in those groups may continue to feel like outsiders.
Australian experts and business leaders increasingly acknowledge objective merit is mythical.
Redefining merit
Fair rewards for effort can improve performance. However, we need to stop pitting merit against diversity. True fairness requires acknowledgement structural inequality exists and bias affects evaluations.
Organisations need to re-imagine merit in ways that work with inclusion, rather than against it. This includes refining hiring and promotion criteria to focus on competencies that are measurable and relevant.
Paula McDonald currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
This federal election, both major parties have offered a “grab bag” of policy fixes for Australia’s stubborn housing affordability crisis. But there are still two big policy elephants in the room, which neither side wants to touch.
The first is negative gearing. This can apply to business losses relating to any investment. But in the context of housing, it allows property investors to claim annual losses incurred renting out an investment property as deductions against their taxable income.
Proponents argue this boosts the supply of rental housing by encouraging investment. Critics say it’s an unfair tax break that disproportionately benefits the wealthy while driving up house prices.
This situation has been controversial for a long time. The Hawke government tried to implement major reforms in the 1980s but these were reversed soon afterwards.
The second “elephant”, which some economists argue “put a rocket under” housing prices, is the 50% capital gains tax discount for assets held for longer than a year. This was introduced by the Howard government at the turn of the millennium.
In 2019, the then Labor leader Bill Shorten learned the hard way what can happen when you bring negative gearing and capital gains tax reform to an election as part of a “big target” platform. Yet these tax concessions remain highly contentious.
Whom do they benefit most? Are they behind the housing crisis? Is keeping them fair on the rest of us? We invited four experts to unpack this debate. Here are the elements they told us are most crucial:
Digital Storytelling Team does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The Vietnam War (1955–1975) was more than just a chapter in the Cold War.
For some, it was supposed to achieve Vietnam’s right to self-determination. For others, it was an attempt to found a nation-state independent of both capitalist and communist influences.
In the 50 years since the war ended, the stories we’ve heard about it have struggled to convey these many different views. Cinema – in Hollywood and in Vietnam – offers some insight into this struggle, which we continue to face today.
A war by any other name
The war is known by many names, and each one highlights the different objectives of the forces involved.
For the United States, “The Vietnam War” was one battleground against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. To prevent communism from spreading, the US sent resources to establish the Republic of Vietnam (known informally as South Vietnam) as its proxy. It had already used this strategy with West Germany and South Korea.
The Communist Party of Vietnam thought of US involvement as a form of colonialism.
By calling the conflict “the sacred resistance against the US to salvage the country” (Cuộc Kháng Chiến Chống Mỹ, Cứu Nước), or “the American war” (Chiến Tranh Mỹ) for short, the communist party encouraged the perception of the war as a stepping stone towards Vietnam’s full independence following Chinese imperialism (circa 111 BCE–939 CE), French colonialism (1862–1954) and Japanese occupation (1940-45).
The communist objective was to “liberate” South Vietnam from the US and its puppet administration, and reunify the country. This is why, in Vietnam, April 30 is called “Reunification Day” or “Independence Day”, to commemorate the communists’ victory in capturing Saigon.
However, former citizens of South Vietnam call April 30 the “Day of National Mourning” (Ngày Quốc Hận), as it marks the Republic’s defeat and the beginning of decades of political persecution and refugee displacement. Although the South Vietnamese were pluralistic in their political beliefs, they were united in their anti-communism.
For them, the conflict was “the Civil War” (Nội Chiến), fought between communists and anti-communists over the future of Vietnam. After the Republic fell, many grieved (and still do) the vision of what South Vietnam could have become.
Apocalypse then
While the US eventually lost control over South Vietnam, it continued to influence how Vietnam was thought of in the West through Hollywood.
Francis Ford Coppola’s Apocalypse Now is loosely based on Joseph Conrad’s classic novel, Heart of Darkness. Shutterstock
In the 1970-80s, Vietnam War films such as Francis Ford Coppola’s Apocalypse Now (1979), Stanley Kubrick’s Full Metal Jacket (1987) and Oliver Stone’s Platoon (1987) established these directors as household names.
The films focus on US soldiers’ psyche and discontent with incompetent leadership, pushing the Vietnamese people and their struggles for independence into the background. They frame the war as something done to American society, rather than something the US orchestrated.
This victimhood fostered what became known as “the Vietnam syndrome” – an unofficial condition in American mindset characterised by feelings of woundedness and a loss of trust in the capability of the US.
In Vietnam, early communist-controlled cinema in the north depicted the Vietnamese as an oppressed people who must band together to defeat Western corruption. Wartime films such as Along the Same River (1959) and 17th Parallel, Days and Nights (1972) leaned into melodramatic love stories to allegorise the divided Vietnam as separated lovers who must be reunited.
As directors in the north slowly gained some freedom from the communist party, films increasingly dealt with the war’s immense impact and questioned the party’s ability to bring about the classless society it had promised. The Girl on the River (1987) and Living in Fear (2005) are two good examples.
Living in Fear (Sống trong sợ hãi) trailer.
Meanwhile, filmmakers in the south were independents who occasionally collaborated with the state or military, as seen with the classic 1971 film Faceless Lover (also known as Warrior, Who Are You?).
South Vietnamese people saw film as a medium to negotiate their fledgling national identity. For them, it was important to establish and safekeep an identity that was distinct from the “foreign ally” (the US) and the “domestic foe” (the communists).
This is why films from the south often portrayed love triangles, where the hero must choose between the vessels of modern Vietnamese femininity and Western excess. Some examples include Afternoon Sun (1972) and Late Night’s Dew (1972).
Apocalypse now
New perspectives on the war are emerging as historically marginalised groups gain footing in Western media. And some of these challenge early portrayals.
Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods (2020) was the first major production to show the war through Black American veterans’ eyes. Hollywood neglected to do this, despite the over-representation of Black soldiers in conscription, combat and casualties during wartime.
Although Da 5 Bloods still fails to account for the Vietnamese’s fight for self-determination, it acknowledges Black Americans’ and the Vietnamese people’s mutual suffering under white supremacy.
One independent feature from a son of refugees, Journey from the Fall (2006), conveys the resentment many exiled South Vietnamese people feel towards the communist party. It also explores the trauma of leaving Vietnam by boat and resettlement in the US.
Most recently, the 2024 TV series The Sympathizer, adapted from Viet Thanh Nguyen’s novel, moved the needle by probing at complex issues such as wartime loyalty, complicity and authenticity.
Communist narratives persist
In Vietnam today, the scale of communist party-funded movies has grown immensely, with many films resembling Hollywood blockbusters. But the messages have become more conservative.
Films such as The Scent of Burning Grass (2012) and The Legend Makers (2013) continue to support the communist party narrative by omitting South Vietnam’s anti-communist objective. They also undermine women’s contributions to the war efforts, whereas earlier films put women at the centre of community organisation.
A new generation of filmmakers is challenging these narratives through collaboration with international production companies and distributors. Features such as Viet and Nam (2024) experiment with film form to show the true costs of war, including the widening wealth disparity in Vietnam, and the lengths many would go to close this gap.
Viet and Nam trailer.
Scarlette Nhi Do does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Complicating the economic picture for the government are Donald Trump’s tariffs and his trade war with China. In early April, financial services company J.P. Morgan Research said there was a 60% probability of the United States experiencing a recession in 2025 — with a 40% chance of a global recession.
Despite this uncertain economic future, the idea that New Zealand’s debt-to-GDP ratio requires immediate and drastic austerity-like measures is not supported by the evidence.
The ratio measures the government’s debt compared to its gross domestic product (GDP). Currently, New Zealand’s ratio is about 47%. This is substantially higher than before the pandemic (32% in 2019) and higher than Australia (35%).
But it is at the lower end compared with other advanced economies. The 2023 debt-to-GDP ratio in the US was 112%, 101% in the United Kingdom, and about 50% in Canada, Ireland and South Korea.
Rather than tightening the belt to reduce debt and increase fiscal balance, New Zealand needs to focus on boosting productivity, investing in education, building strong and resilient infrastructure and supporting health and wellbeing.
Lowering debt and creating fiscal space are legitimate goals. But they should be viewed as a means to an end, not an end in itself.
A necessary medicine
Austerity is often presented as necessary medicine during an economic crisis. The logic is seemingly straightforward: reduce government spending and debt to not overstimulate the economy, create fiscal resilience for future shocks, support low and stable inflation, and signal fiscal responsibility to international markets.
Several countries adopted austerity measures in response to high deficits following the global financial crisis.
Greece implemented deep spending cuts, tax hikes and pension reforms under the terms of a bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund (IMF). This reduced its deficit but caused a severe economic contraction and social unrest.
Italy’s austerity measures involved pension reforms and tax hikes, achieving modest fiscal improvement but sparking political instability.
The UK focused on reducing public spending and welfare support, significantly lowering its deficit while putting pressure on public services and increasing inequality. Research found UK’s austerity measures led to hundreds of thousands of avoidable deaths.
While in many cases austerity helped restore fiscal balance, it often came with heavy economic and social costs, particularly in terms of unemployment, growth and public welfare.
In March, people in the United Kingdom took to the streets to protest ongoing austerity measures. Mike Kemp/Getty Images
Productivity is the key
Research indicates that debt-to-GDP ratios above about 80% tend to be associated with lower growth. But below this threshold, the ratio tends to be associated with increases in growth.
It is clear that deficits are neither always bad for economic growth, nor that they always lead to inflation, when combined with a credible fiscal strategy to return to surpluses in the future.
To raise the future wellbeing of all New Zealanders we need to avoid the heavy costs of austerity and rather focus on stimulating economic growth. And this comes with a price tag.
Using debt to finance investments into capital, which in turn increases our productivity, is key to fostering economic growth. This goes hand-in-hand with targeted industrial policies, reduction in regulation, increases in government efficiency and trade liberalisation
Importantly, public investment boosts economic growth mainly through two channels: efficiency (how much infrastructure is actually delivered for the money spent) and productivity (how well that infrastructure supports economic activity).
Research from the IMF suggests an increase in public investment of one percentage point of GDP is associated with an increase in output of about 0.2% in the same year and 1.2% four years later.
All-of-government focus
What New Zealand needs is a long-term growth strategy and an all-of-government focus on lifting productivity. This must be grounded in fiscal responsibility – one that boosts government efficiency. But not at the cost of delaying high-impact investments or leaving growth opportunities on the table.
Maintaining discipline while strategically investing in the drivers of long-term prosperity is essential for securing New Zealand’s economic future.
The path ahead requires careful navigation, not a rush towards austerity.
By thoughtfully balancing the need for fiscal prudence with the importance of investing in our productivity, human capital and infrastructure, we can ensure a more resilient and prosperous future for all New Zealanders.
Dennis Wesselbaum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
30 April 1975. Saigon Fell, Vietnam Rose. The story of Vietnam after the US fled the country is not a fairy tale, it is not a one-dimensional parable of resurrection, of liberation from oppression, of joy for all — but there is a great deal to celebrate.
After over a century of brutal colonial oppression by the French, the Japanese, and the Americans and their various minions, the people of Vietnam won victory in one of the great liberation struggles of history.
It became a source of inspiration and of hope for millions of people oppressed by imperial powers in Central & South America, Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
Civil war – a war among several The civil war in Vietnam, coterminous with the war against the Western powers, pitted communists and anti-communists in a long and pitiless struggle.
Within that were various strands — North versus South, southern communists and nationalists against pro-Western forces, and so on. As various political economists have pointed out, all wars are in some way class wars too — pitting the elites against ordinary people.
As has happened repeatedly throughout history, once one or more great power becomes involved in a civil war it is subsumed within that colonial war. The South’s President Ngô Đình Diệm, for example, was assassinated on orders of the Americans.
By 1969, US aid accounted for 80 percent of South Vietnam’s government budget; they effectively owned the South and literally called the shots.
Donald Trump declared April 2 “Liberation Day” and imposed some of the heaviest tariffs on Vietnam because they didn’t buy enough U.S. goods! Image: www.solidarity.co.nz
US punishes its victims This month, 50 years after the Vietnamese achieved independence from their colonial overlords, US President Donald Trump declared April 2 “Liberation Day” and imposed some of the heaviest tariffs on Vietnam because they didn’t buy enough US goods!
As economist Joseph Stiglitz pointed out, they don’t yet have enough aggregate demand for the kind of goods the US produces. That might have something to do with the decades it has taken to rebuild their lives and economy from the Armageddon inflicted on them by the US, Australia, New Zealand and other unindicted war criminals.
Straight after they fled, the US declared themselves the victims of the Vietnamese and imposed punitive sanctions on liberated Vietnam for decades — punishing their victims.
Under Gerald Ford (1974–1977), Jimmy Carter (1977–1981), Ronald Reagan (1981–1989), George H.W. Bush (1989–1993) right up to Bill Clinton (1993–2001), the US enforced the Trading with the Enemy Act (TWEA) of 1917.
The US froze the assets of Vietnam at the very time it was trying to recover from the wholesale devastation of the country.
Tens of millions of much-needed dollars were captured in US banks, enforced by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The US also took advantage of its muscle to veto IMF and World Bank loans to Vietnam.
Countries like Australia and New Zealand, to their eternal shame, took part in both the war, the war crimes, and imposing sanctions and other punitive measures subsequently.
The ‘Boat People’ refugee crisis While millions celebrated the victory in 1975, millions of others were fearful. The period of national unification and economic recovery was painful, typically repressive — when one militarised regime replaces another.
This triggered flight: firstly among urban elites — military officers, government workers, and professionals who were most closely-linked to the US-run regime.
You can blame the Commies for the ensuing refugee crisis but by strangling the Vietnamese economy, refusing to return Vietnamese assets held in the US, imposing an effective blockade on the economy via sanctions, the US deepened the crisis, which saw over two million flee the country between 1975 and the 1980s.
More than 250,000 desperate people died at sea.
Đổi Mới: the move to a socialist-market economy In 1986, to energise the economy, the government moved away from a command economy and launched the đổi mới reforms which created a hybrid socialist-market economy.
They had taken a leaf out of the Chinese playbook, which under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping (1978 –1989), had moved towards a market economy through its “Reform and Opening Up” policies. Vietnam saw the “economic miracle” of its near neighbour and its leaders sought something similar.
Vietnam’s economy boomed and GDP grew from $18.1 billion in 1984 to $469 billion by 2024, with a per capita GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) of $15,470 (up from about $300 per capita in the 1970s).
After a sluggish start, literacy rates soared to 96.1 percent by 2023, and life expectancy reached 73.7 years, only a few short of the USA. GDP growth is around 7 percent, according to the OECD.
An unequal society Persistent inequality suggests the socialist vision has partially faded. A rural-urban divide and a rich-poor divide underlines ongoing injustices around quality of life and access to services but Vietnam’s Gini coefficient — a measure of income inequality — puts it only slightly more “unequal” as a society than New Zealand or Germany.
Corruption is also an issue in the country.
Press controls and political repression As in China, political power resides with the Party. Freedom of expression — highlighted by press repression — is severely limited in Vietnam and nothing to celebrate.
Reporters Without Borders (RSF) rates Vietnam as 174th out of 180 countries for press freedom and regularly excoriates its strongmen as press “predators”. In its country profile, RSF says of Vietnam: “Independent reporters and bloggers are often jailed, making Vietnam the world’s third largest jailer of journalists”.
Vietnam is forging its own destiny What is well worth celebrating, however, is that Vietnam successfully got the imperial powers off its back and out of its country. It is well-placed to play an increasingly prosperous and positive role in the emerging multipolar world.
It is part of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and the ASEAN network, and borders China, giving Vietnam the opportunity to weather any storms coming from the continent of America.
Vietnam today is united and free and millions of ordinary people have achieved security, health, education and prosperity vastly better than their parents and grandparents’ generations were able to.
In the end the honour and glory go to the Vietnamese people.
Ho Chi Minh, the great leader of the Vietnamese people who reached out to the United States, and sought alliance not conflict. Image: www.solidarity.co.nz
I’ll give the last word to Ho Chi Minh, the great leader of the Vietnamese people who reached out to the United States, and sought alliance not conflict. He was rebuffed by the super-power which had a different agenda.
On September 2, 1945, Ho Chi Minh proclaimed the independent Democratic Republic of Vietnam in Hanoi’s Ba Dinh square:
“‘All men are created equal. They are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, among them are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.’
“This immortal statement was made in the Declaration of Independence of the United States of America in 1776. In a broader sense, this means: All the peoples on the earth are equal from birth, all the peoples have a right to live, to be happy and free.
“… A people who have courageously opposed French domination for more than eight years, a people who have fought side by side with the Allies against the Fascists during these last years, such a people must be free and independent.
“For these reasons, we, members of the Provisional Government of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, solemnly declare to the world that Vietnam has the right to be a free and independent country — and in fact is so already. The entire Vietnamese people are determined to mobilise all their physical and mental strength, to sacrifice their lives and property in order to safeguard their independence and liberty.”
And, my god, they did.
To conclude, a short poem attributed to Ho Chi Minh:
“After the rain, good weather.
“In the wink of an eye,
the universe throws off its muddy clothes.”
Eugene Doyle is a community organiser and activist in Wellington, New Zealand. He received an Absolutely Positively Wellingtonian award in 2023 for community service. His first demonstration was at the age of 12 against the Vietnam War. This article was first published at his public policy website Solidarity and is republished here with permission.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Labor leads by between 52–48 and 53–47 in four new national polls from Resolve, Essential, Morgan and DemosAU. While Labor’s vote slumped from a high 55.5–44.5 in Morgan to 53–47, such a slide hasn’t been seen in any other poll. Labor remains the likely winner of the election this Saturday.
A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted April 23–28 from a sample of 2,010 by online and telephone polling, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the mid-April Resolve poll. Telephone polling by Resolve appears to only be used for their final polls before a federal election.
Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one), 8% independents (down four) and 5% others (steady). The 53–47 two-party result was achieved whether preferences were allocated as at the 2022 election or by respondents.
In this poll, Resolve is using seat-specific candidate lists, which Morgan and YouGov are now also doing. This resulted in a drop in the independent vote, as not all seats have viable independents.
Here is the graph of Labor’s two-party share in national polls. There was a 2.5-point drop for Labor in Morgan, but no other poll this week has had such a large change. Although Labor is slightly down, they are likely to win Saturday’s election. This graph does not include the DemosAU poll.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval in Resolve was steady at +1, with 45% saying he was doing a good job and 44% a poor job. Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped six points to -24. Albanese maintained a 47–31 lead over Dutton as preferred PM (46–30 previously).
The change in voting intentions and leaders’ ratings since the late February Resolve poll is dramatic. The February poll had given the Coalition a 55–45 lead by respondent preferences. Albanese’s net approval was -22, Dutton’s was +5 and Dutton led Albanese as preferred PM by 39–35.
The Liberals led Labor on economic management by 37–29 (36–31 previously). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 31–28 (tied at 30–30 previously).
Final Essential poll: Labor leads by 52.1–47.9
The Guardian reported Tuesday that the final Essential poll, conducted April 23–27 from a sample of 2,241 gave Labor a 52.1–47.9 lead by respondent preferences with undecided removed, from primary votes of 34% Coalition, 32% Labor, 13% Greens, 10% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots and 9% for all Others,
In Essential’s usual methods that include undecided, Labor led by 49.6–45.6 (50–45 in mid-April). Primary votes were 32% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (down one), 9% One Nation (steady), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 9% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (up one). By 2022 election flows, Labor would lead by about 52.5–47.5.
Albanese’s net approval was steady at -3, with 47% disapproving and 44% approving. Dutton’s net approval dropped three points to -12, a record low for him in this poll. By 52–31, voters thought Australia was on the wrong track (50–33 previously).
A total of 81% rated cost of living one of the top three most important issues, including 49% who rated it the top issue. By 68–32, voters did not think the elected government would make a meaningful difference on cost of living.
Morgan poll: Labor drops to a 53–47 lead
A national Morgan poll, conducted April 21–27 from a sample of 1,524, gave Labor a 53–47 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since the April 14–20 Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 34.5% Coalition (up 0.5), 34% Labor (down 0.5), 13% Greens (down 1.5), 7.5% One Nation (up 1.5), 1.5% Trumpet of Patriots (up one), 2% teal independents and 7.5% for all Others. By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 54–46, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition.
By 52.5–34, voters thought the country was going in the wrong direction (48–34 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index was down 2.1 points to 83.4, its lowest for more than six months.
DemosAU poll 52–48 to Labor with low major party primary votes
A national DemosAU poll, conducted April 22–23 from a sample of 1,073, gave Labor a 52–48 lead after a forced choice question for the 14% who were initially undecided.
Primary votes after forcing were 31% Coalition, 29% Labor, 14% Greens, 9% One Nation, 7% independents and 10% others. DemosAU used seat-specific polls, reading the candidate list as it appears on the ballot paper. Other pollsters get higher primary votes for the major parties as those parties are listed first on seat-specific polls.
Albanese led Dutton by 43–34 as preferred PM.
DemosAU poll of outer metro Brisbane seats
DemosAU collectively polled the five seats of Longman, Dickson, Petrie, Bonner and Forde on April 18–23 from a sample of 1,053 for The Financial Review. The Liberal National Party led Labor by 53–47 (53.4–46.6 to the LNP across these five seats at the 2022 election).
Primary votes were 40% LNP, 27% Labor, 13% Greens, 7% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots and 11% for all Others.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Labor will be encouraged by the Liberals’ victory in Canada’s election, undoubtedly much helped by US President Donald Trump.
Trump’s extraordinary attack on the United States’ northern ally, with his repeated suggestion Canada should be the 51st American state, galvanised voters. Former banker Mark Carney, seen as best able to deal with Trump, won the internal race to succeed Justin Trudeau as PM, and now has clinched the election. The Conservatives, favourites a few months ago, couldn’t compete.
The Trump factor is not so dramatic in our election, but it is present and working for Labor. In a time of instability, some potential swinging voters are more inclined to opt for the status quo.
Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday, “Mark Carney has stood for Canada’s national interests, just as I stand up for Australia’s national interest”.
Australians don’t like Trump or his policies. A recent Lowy poll found people’s trust in the US to act responsibly in the world has dropped 20 points in a year, although they were nearly equally divided on whether Albanese or Peter Dutton would be better to handle the US and Trump.
After initially thinking Trump’s election could assist the Coalition, Dutton has not been able to shake off the “Trump factor” since it became clear it was a drag.
Meanwhile, Dutton was having another difficult day on the campaign trail on Tuesday. His electorate office had been vandalised (again) in the early hours. Then, when he visited a sporting ground in the highly marginal seat of Gilmore on the NSW south coast, three local unionists, outfitted in protective gear, turned up to play for the cameras at finding a spot for a nuclear reactor.
In Gilmore former NSW transport minister Andrew Constance is making another run, after being narrowly pipped by Labor at the 2022 election.
Dutton had planned to hold his news conference at the ground, but cancelled it and moved on. When the press conference finally happened, it was short but not sweet. Both leader and press pack were, by that stage, tetchy.
Unlike his unfortunate experience on Sunday with the price of eggs, Dutton did pass the test when asked the inflation rate. He quickly answered 2.7%. This is not the headline rate, which is 2.4%, but it is the trimmed mean rate. That’s the rate preferred by the Reserve Bank, so he would get a tick from Governor Michele Bullock, even if his choice caused some confusion in the media. On Wednesday we get the March quarter CPI figures.
How the leaders’ debates rated
Nine won by a whisker the “ratings” contest among TV stations in the leaders’ debates, followed by the ABC. These are considered high figures for election debates. What we don’t know is how many viewers watched all four debates. Now that took some stamina!
How voters rate former PMs
Essential Research’s latest poll has an interesting table of people’s ratings of former prime ministers, with John Howard and Bob Hawke filling the first two spots.
Howard, 85, remains in demand for Liberal campaigning. Speaking to The Conversation, he reels off quite a round of seats he’s visited, including Curtin, Tangey, Bullwinkel and Hasluck in Western Australia (all in a day and a half); Wentworth, Mackellar, Robertson, Warringhah and Bennelong (his old seat) in NSW, and Bruce in Melbourne. He agrees the campaign cycle is faster these days, but he obviously still relishes the smell of the political grease paint.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls, who is visiting New Caledonia this week for the third time in two months, has once again called on all parties to live up to their responsibilities in order to make a new political agreement possible.
Failing that, he said a potential civil war was looming.
“We’ll take our responsibilities, on our part, and we will put on the table a project that touches New Caledonia’s society, economic recovery, including nickel, and the future of the younger generation,” he told a panel of French journalists on Sunday.
He said that he hoped a revised version on a draft document — resulting from his previous visits in the French Pacific territory and new proposals from the French government — there existed a “difficult path” to possibly reconcile radically opposing views expressed so far from the pro-independence parties in New Caledonia and those who want the territory to remain part of France.
The target remains an agreement that would accommodate both “the right and aspiration to self-determination” and “the link with France”.
“If there is no agreement, then economic and political uncertainty can lead to a new disaster, to confrontation and to civil war,” he told reporters.
“That is why I have appealed several times to all political stakeholders, those for and against independence,” he warned.
“Everyone must take a step towards each other. An agreement is indispensable.”
Valls said this week he hoped everyone would “enter a real negotiations phase”.
He said one of the ways to achieve this will be to find “innovative” solutions and “a new way of looking at the future”.
This also included relevant amendments to the French Constitution.
Local parties will not sign any agreement ‘at all costs’ Local parties are not so enthusiastic.
In fact, each camp remains on their guard, in an atmosphere of defiance.
And on both sides, they agree at least on one thing — they will not sign any agreement “at all costs”.
Just like has been the case since talks between Valls and local parties began earlier this year, the two main opposing camps remain adamant on their respective pre-conditions and sometimes demands.
The pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), largely dominated by the Union Calédonienne, held a convention at the weekend to decide on whether they would attend this week’s new round of talks with Valls.
They eventually resolved that they would attend, but have not yet decided to call this “negotiations”, only “discussions”.
They said another decision would be made this Thursday, May 1, after they had examined Valls’s new proposals and documents which the French minister is expected to circulate as soon as he hosts the first meeting tomorrow.
FLNKS reaffirms ‘Kanaky Agreement’ demand During their weekend convention, the FLNKS reaffirmed their demands for a “Kanaky Agreement” to be signed not later than 24 September 2025, to be followed by a five-year transition period.
The official line was to “maintain the trajectory” to full sovereignty, including in terms of schedule.
On the pro-France side, the main pillar of their stance is the fact that three self-determination referendums have been held between 2018 and 2021, even though the third and last consultation was largely boycotted by the pro-independence camp.
All three referendums resulted in votes rejecting full sovereignty.
One of their most outspoken leaders, Les Loyalistes party and Southern Province President Sonia Backès, told a public rally last week that they had refused another date for yet another referendum.
“A new referendum would mean civil war. And we don’t want to fix the date for civil war. So we don’t want to fix the date for a new referendum,” she said.
However, Backès said they “still want to believe in an agreement”.
“We’re part of all discussions on seeking solutions in a constructive and creative spirit.”
Granting more provincial powers One of their other proposals was to grant more powers to each of the three provinces of New Caledonia, including on tax collection matters.
“We don’t want differences along ethnic lines. We want the provinces to have more powers so that each of them is responsible for their respective society models.”
Under a draft text leaked last week, any new referendum could only be called by at least three-fifths of the Congress and would no longer pose a “binary” question on yes or no to independence, but would consider endorsing a “project” for New Caledonia’s future society.
Another prominent pro-France leader, MP Nicolas Metzdorf, repeated this weekend he and his supporters “remain mobilised to defend New Caledonia within France”.
“We will not budge,” Metzdorf said.
Despite Valls’s warnings, another scenario could be that New Caledonia’s political stakeholders find it more appealing or convenient to agree on no agreement at all, especially as New Caledonia’s crucial provincial elections are in the pipeline and scheduled for no later than November 30.
Concerns about security But during the same interview, Valls repeated that he remained concerned that the situation on the ground remained “serious”.
“We are walking on a tightrope above embers”.
He said top of his concerns were New Caledonia’s economic and financial situation, the tense atmosphere, a resurgence in “racism, hatred” as well as a fast-deteriorating public health services situation or the rise in poverty caused by an increasing number of jobless.
“So yes, all these risks are there, and that is why it is everyone’s responsibility to find an agreement. And I will stay as long as needed and I will put all my energy so that an agreement takes place.
“Not for me, for them.”
Valls also recalled that since the riots broke out in May 2024, almost one year ago, French security and law enforcement agencies are still maintaining about 20 squads of French gendarmes (1500 personnel) in the territory.
This is on top of the normal deployment of 550 gendarmes and 680 police officers.
Valls said this was necessary because “any time, it could flare up again”.
Outgoing French High Commissioner Louis Le Franc said in an interview recently that in case of a “new May 13” situation, the pre-positioned forces could ensure law enforcement “for three or four days . . . until reinforcements arrive”.
If fresh violence erupts again, reinforcements could be sent again from mainland France and bring the total number to up to 6000 law enforcement personnel, a number similar to the level deployed in 2024 in the weeks following the riots that killed 14 and caused some 2.2 billion euros (NZ$4.2 billion) in damage.
Carefully chosen words Valls said earlier in April the main pillars of future negotiations were articulated around the themes of:
“democracy and the rule of law”;
a “decolonisation process”;
the right to self-determination;
a “fundamental law” that would seal New Caledonia’s future status;
the powers of New Caledonia’s three provinces; and a future New Caledonia citizenship with the associated definition of who meets the requirements to vote at local elections.
Valls has already travelled to Nouméa twice this year — in February and March.
Since his last visit that ended on April 1, discussions have been maintained in conference mode between local political stakeholders and Valls, and his cabinet, as well as French Prime Minister François Bayrou’s special advisor on New Caledonia, constitutionalist Eric Thiers.
This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian, Professor of Electrical Engineering, School of Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology
The lights are mostly back on in Spain, Portugal and southern France after a widespread blackout on Monday.
The blackout caused chaos for tens of millions of people. It shut down traffic lights and ATMs, halted public transport, cut phone service and forced people to eat dinner huddled around candles as night fell. Many people found themselves trapped in trains and elevators.
Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has said the exact cause of the blackout is yet to be determined. In early reporting, Portugal’s grid operator REN was quoted as blaming the event on a rare phenomenon known as “induced atmospheric vibration”. REN has since reportedly refuted this.
But what is this vibration? And how can energy systems be improved to mitigate the risk of widespread blackouts?
How much does weather affect electricity?
Weather is a major cause of disruptions to electricity supply. In fact, in the United States, 83% of reported blackouts between 2000 and 2021 were attributed to weather-related events.
The ways weather can affect the supply of electricity are manifold. For example, cyclones can bring down transmission lines, heatwaves can place too high a demand on the grid, and bushfires can raze substations.
Wind can also cause transmission lines to vibrate. These vibrations are characterised by either high amplitude and low frequency (known as “conductor galloping”), or low amplitude and high frequency (known as “aeolian vibrations”).
These vibrations are a significant problem for grid operators. They can place increased stress on grid infrastructure, potentially leading to blackouts.
To reduce the risk of vibration, grid operators often use wire stabilisers known as “stock bridge dampers”.
What is ‘induced atmospheric vibration’?
Vibrations in power lines can also be caused by extreme changes in temperature or air pressure. And this is one hypothesis about what caused the recent widespread blackout across the Iberian peninsula.
Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior of Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in the very high voltage lines (400 kV), a phenomenon known as “induced atmospheric vibration”. These oscillations caused synchronisation failures between the electrical systems, leading to successive disturbances across the interconnected European network.
In fact, “induced atmospheric vibration” is not a commonly used term, but it seems likely the explanation was intended to refer to physical processes climate scientists have known about for quite some time.
In simple terms, it seems to refer to wavelike movements or oscillations in the atmosphere, caused by sudden changes in temperature or pressure. These can be triggered by extreme heating, large-scale energy releases (such as explosions or bushfires), or intense weather events.
When a part of Earth’s surface heats up very quickly – due to a heatwave, for example – the air above it warms, expands and becomes lighter. That rising warm air creates a pressure imbalance with the surrounding cooler, denser air. The atmosphere responds to this imbalance by generating waves, not unlike ripples spreading across a pond.
These pressure waves can travel through the atmosphere. In some cases, they can interact with power infrastructure — particularly long-distance, high-voltage transmission lines.
These types of atmospheric waves are usually called gravity waves, thermal oscillations or acoustic-gravity waves. While the phrase “induced atmospheric vibration” is not formally established in meteorology, it seems to describe this same family of phenomena.
What’s important is that it’s not just high temperatures alone that causes these effects — it’s how quickly and unevenly the temperature changes across a region. That’s what sets the atmosphere into motion and can cause power lines to vibrate. Again, though, it’s still unclear if this is what was behind the recent blackout in Europe.
Understanding how the atmosphere behaves under these conditions is becoming increasingly important. As our energy systems become more interconnected and more dependent on long-distance transmission, even relatively subtle atmospheric disturbances can have outsized impacts. What might once have seemed like a fringe effect is now a growing factor in grid resilience.
Under growing environmental and electrical stress, centralised energy networks are dangerously vulnerable. The increasing electrification of buildings, the rapid uptake of electric vehicles, and the integration of intermittent renewable energy sources have placed unprecedented pressure on traditional grids that were never designed for this level of complexity, dynamism or centralisation.
Continuing to rely on centralised grid structures without fundamentally rethinking resilience puts entire regions at risk — not just from technical faults, but from environmental volatility.
The way to avoid such catastrophic risks is clear: we must embrace innovative solutions such as community microgrids. These are decentralised, flexible and resilient energy networks that can operate independently when needed.
Strengthening local energy autonomy is key to building a secure, affordable and future-ready electricity system.
The European blackout, regardless of its immediate cause, demonstrates that our electrical grids have become dangerously sensitive. Failure to address these structural weaknesses will have consequences far worse than those experienced during the COVID pandemic.
Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Filipo Tarakinikini has been appointed as Fiji’s Ambassador-designate to Israel.
This has been stated on two official X, formerly Twitter, handle posts overnight.
“#Fiji is determined to deepen its relations with #Israel as Fiji’s Ambassador-designate to Israel, HE Ambassador @AFTarakinikini prepares to present his credentials on 28 April, 2025,” stated the Fiji at UN twitter account.
Tarakinikini is also Fiji’s current Ambassador to the United Nations.
In a separate post, Deputy Director-General Eynat Shlein of Israel’s international development cooperation agency said she was “honoured” to meet Tarakinikini.
“We discussed the vast cooperation opportunities, promoting & enhancing sustainable development, emphasizing investment in capacity building & human capital,” she said on X.
Centre of controversy Pacific Media Watch reports that Lieutenant-Colonel Tarakinikini was at the centre of controversy in Fiji in 2005 when he was declared a “deserter” by the Fiji military.
Great honor to have have this timely briefing @EynatShlein, Ambassador Roi @IsraelMFA#Fiji is determined to deepen its relations with #Israel as Fiji’s Ambassador-designate to Israel, HE Ambassador @AFTarakinikini prepares to present his credentials on 28 April, 2025 🇮🇱 🤝 🇫🇯… https://t.co/mGPKjYM5Qc
Beginning in 2003, he was the UN Department for Security and Safety’s (UNDSS) Chief Security Adviser in Jerusalem, as well as in Kathmandu, Nepal, from 2006 to 2008.
From 2008 to 2018, he served in numerous United Nations integrated assessment missions, programme working groups, restructuring and redeployments and technical assessment missions.
‘Weapons of war’ Yesterday, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) began week-long hearings at The Hague into global accusations of Israel using starvation and humanitarian aid as “weapons of war” and failing to meet its obligations to the Palestinian people in Gaza as the occupying power in its genocidal war on the besieged enclave.
Forty countries are expected to give evidence.
The ICJ has been tasked by the UN with providing an advisory opinion “on a priority basis and with the utmost urgency”.
Although the ICJ judges’ opinion is not binding, it provides clarity on legal questions.
In January 2024, the ICJ ruled that Israel must take “all measures” to prevent a genocide in Gaza.
Then in June, it said in an advisory opinion that Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza was illegal.
Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant are wanted on arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to face charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University; and Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow, Victoria University
India and Pakistan are once again at a standoff over Kashmir. A terror attack last week in the disputed region that killed 26 tourists – mostly Indian – has brought the two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals close to a devastating conflict.
India claims the incident was an act of cross-border terrorism supported by Pakistan and has vowed to hunt down and punish the perpetrators. In retaliation, it has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty to deprive Pakistan of water from the Indus River, which runs through the Indian-controlled region of Jammu and Kashmir.
Pakistan has condemned India’s action as an “act of war”.
Both sides have put their forces on alert as low-level clashes have broken out along the “Line of Control”, the de facto border established in the region following the first Indo-Pakistan war in 1947–48.
Pakistan’s defence minister now says a “military incursion” by India is imminent. Can all-out war between the two sides be averted?
A long-simmering dispute
At the time of the painful partition of British India in the 1940s, the country’s Muslim minority were given the option of joining the newly created state of Pakistan. Kashmir’s Hindu ruler initially wanted independence for the region, but in fear of invaders from Pakistan, decided to join India.
This laid the foundations for an enduring, bitter dispute over control of the Muslim-majority region. Attempts at a resolution have been hard to come by.
The dispute has also become intrinsically linked to the political and strategic postures of the two protagonists.
New Delhi has vehemently opposed any nationalist demands for independence in Jammu and Kashmir. It fears this would set a precedent for many other minorities who want autonomy in multi-ethnic India.
Initially, the region was given a special autonomous status under Article 370 of the Indian constitution. But since 2014, the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has forcefully sought to bring Jammu and Kashmir under New Delhi’s control.
In 2019, it revoked Article 370 and isolated the region from the rest of India and the outside world.
Modi’s government argued this was necessary to bring progress and prosperity to the people of Jammu and Kashmir. In reality, it was aimed at squashing separatist movements and easing the way for more Hindus to move to the territory.
Pakistan condemned the scrapping of Article 370, exacerbating the tensions between the two regional powers.
New Delhi has also accused Pakistan of involvement in cross-border terrorist acts over the years. Islamabad has refuted New Delhi’s claims and castigated it for human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir and for denying the people their right to self-determination.
Nuclear deterrence has been effective
India and Pakistan fought two wars in 1965 and 1971, the latter resulting in the dismemberment of Pakistan and creation of the state of Bangladesh.
In 1999, the two rivals came very close to a nuclear exchange in the limited Kargil War in Kashmir, but pulled back from the brink. As I wrote at the time, the consequences of a nuclear war played a crucial role in both sides eventually backing down.
This is also the main reason the protagonists have not fought another all-out war in five decades, notwithstanding periodic clashes along the Line of Control and the Kargil conflict. And nuclear deterrence may once more prove effective in preventing the two sides from escalating the current conflict.
Pakistan is also going through a very politically, economically and socially fragile period in its history.
The country has been in political turmoil since the ousting and arrest of popular Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2023. The economy is in the doldrums. And the government faces a renewed threat from the Pakistani Taliban, amid growing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The main force holding Pakistan together is the military and the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency.
India is facing its own challenges, despite being in a more stable position. The Modi government’s Hindu nationalism has marginalised minority groups, in particular the country’s Muslim population. And income inequality is growing, with the richest 1% of the country holding 58% of the wealth.
Neither country can afford a war right now – particularly one with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Amin Saikal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Many Australians struggle to keep themselves cool affordably and effectively, particularly with rising electricity prices. This is becoming a major health concern, especially for our most vulnerable people such as the elderly, pregnant women and people with cardiovascular diseases.
Air conditioning is often seen as the only solution to this problem. But relying too heavily on aircon has major downsides. These include hefty electricity bills, increased greenhouse gas emissions, strain on an already weak electricity grid, and dumping heat from buildings to the outside – further heating the outdoor air.
Our latest research, published in the Medical Journal of Australia, highlights a simple yet effective solution: a “fan-first” cooling approach.
The approach is simple: use electric fans as your first cooling strategy, and only turn on air conditioning when the indoor temperature exceeds 27°C.
Fan-First Cooling: The Smart Way to Beat Australia’s Heat Crisis (Federico Tartarini)
The solution: ‘fan-first’ cooling
Electric fans can make you feel more comfortable on a hot day simply by moving the air around you. This helps our body release heat in two ways: improving the transfer heat from your body into the air, and increasing the evaporation of sweat from your skin.
A gentle breeze can make you feel up to 4°C cooler, even when the weather is very hot and humid.
This allows you to increase the aircon set-point (the temperature at which cooling turns on) from 23-24°C to 27-28°C. This simple change can significantly reduce the amount of time your aircon is running, leading to substantial energy savings.
For example, in our previous research we showed raising the office air conditioning set-point from 24 to 26.5°C, with supplementary air movement from desk and ceiling fans, reduced energy consumption by 32%, without compromising thermal comfort.
Don’t fans still use electricity to run?
Yes fans still use electricity, but it’s as little as 3% of the electricity used to run air conditioning. That means you can run more than 30 fans with the same amount of energy it takes to run a single aircon unit.
A basic pedestal fan is cheap to buy (A$20 to $150), requires no installation and minimal maintenance, and can be easily moved around to keep you cool in any part of your house. Simply turn on the fan as soon as you start feeling slightly warm.
We also previously showed that using fans rather than airconditioning is a more effective emissions reduction strategy than switching from old-fashioned incandescent light bulbs to LED lighting.
Beyond the financial burden, the environmental impact of aircon is substantial. In Australia, electricity mainly comes from burning fossil fuels, creating greenhouse gas emissions. Even with the growth of renewable energy, the sheer demand for aircon cooling could strain the transition and the grid.
Furthermore, the refrigerants used in most aircon units are potent greenhouse gases. It will also take time to replace older and less efficient aircon units.
Aircon units also release heat into the outdoor environment, worsening the urban heat island effect – the phenomenon where cities are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas.
Annual sales of air conditioning units have more than tripled globally since 1990. aapsky, Shutterstock
Using fans safely and effectively
While fans offer numerous benefits, it’s important to use them correctly, especially in very hot indoor conditions.
There’s a common misconception that fans should be turned off above 35°C because they might blow hot air onto the skin. This ignores the crucial role fans play in evaporating sweat.
Based on our field and lab research, we suggest five simple steps to using fans for managing heat at home:
consider buying pedestal or ceiling fans
point the fan at your body and adjust the speed to your liking
wear light clothing and stay hydrated
if you have aircon, increase the set-point to 27-28°C
enjoy a reduced energy bill and increased comfort.
You may also want to ask your employer to install fans at your workplace and share this “fan-first” cooling strategy with family and friends.
Let’s work together towards a more sustainable future by reducing our reliance on energy-intensive air conditioning. This will lead to lower electricity costs, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and increased resilience to heat.
Federico Tartarini is affiliated with the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE).
Angie Bone is a Board Member of Doctors for the Environment Australia.
Ollie Jay receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and Wellcome Trust (UK).
But they show indecision on two key matters – the legal framework and the agency that would be in charge.
The plan relates primarily to conventional carbon capture and storage technologies, which remove carbon dioxide from an industrial gas flow and dispose of it deep underground.
It also covers some methods of carbon dioxide removal, an emerging but as yet commercially untested suite of technologies such as enhanced rock weathering, bio-energy capture and direct air capture.
The latter technologies are not predicated on fossil fuel consumption and could operate in many different situations.
Neither kind of carbon removal is a simple answer to the climate challenge and the priority remains on cutting emissions. But we need to have regulatory frameworks in place for both reduction and removal technologies of all kinds, and soon.
Earning credits from emissions trading
Both types of technologies will benefit from the government’s decision to allow companies to get credits in the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for the disposal of carbon dioxide from any source. Credits will not be tied to any one technology, according to the released policy discussion documents.
It’s also a positive development that an operator can get credits as a separate removal activity, not merely as a reduction of an existing emissions liability (although official advice was initially against separate credits). This allows for diversity in the players and the systems for removals.
The government has decided it will assume liability for any carbon dioxide leaks from geological storage, but only after verification that fluids in the subsurface are behaving as expected after closure, and no sooner than 15 years after closure.
Leaks this long after injection are unlikely, but we nevertheless need strong regulation, financial assurance to guarantee remedial action and clear liability rules.
Companies will be able to earn credits for the permanent disposal of carbon dioxide. Shutterstock/VectorMine
The government also states ETS credits will only be available for removals that can be recognised internationally against New Zealand’s commitments to cut emissions. This would apply only to geological storage but not deep-ocean deposition or rock weathering.
But that’s not quite right. The general international rules already allow the inclusion in a national greenhouse gas inventory of removals from any process. Detailed methodologies for carbon dioxide removal are likely to become available within the next few years.
With change underway, New Zealand’s new regime should allow a wide range of removal methods to receive credits.
A new regulatory regime
The documents acknowledge that New Zealand needs a broader regulatory regime, beyond the ETS, to cover the entire process of carbon dioxide removal. The suitability of a disposal site must be verified, a detailed geological characterisation is required and the project design and operation need to be approved.
Approval is also required for closure and post-closure plans, and systematic monitoring. Monitoring is everything; it must be accurate and verifiable but also cost effective. The operator will have to pay for monitoring for decades after site closure.
In agreeing on these features, the government is following the examples of many countries overseas, including Australia, Canada, the UK and the EU.
However, it is intriguing that the government hasn’t decided where this new regime should sit in the statute book, and who should manage it. Much of the apparently relevant text in the documents has been redacted.
Given that carbon dioxide would be stored underground, the Crown Minerals Act is one possibility. But this legislation is all about extraction, not disposal. Although the New Zealand petroleum and minerals unit at the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment has expertise in regulating subsurface operations, it focuses largely on oil and gas, not on innovative climate projects.
The Resource Management Act certainly provides a regulatory approval regime, but it is awaiting reform and would need much more than the currently proposed changes to deal with carbon capture and storage or removal properly. So would legislation covering activities within New Zealand’s exclusive economic zone.
Indeed each act would require a whole new part to be added, with its own principles and procedures. There is a lot to be said for a standalone new act, in a form that would fit with the emerging Natural Environment Act that will replace the Resource Management Act.
The new legislation and regulation regime could be administered by the Environmental Protection Authority, which is already involved in Resource Management Act call-ins and fast-track approvals, the legislation covering the exclusive economic zone and the ETS.
One can only guess there might be tensions between contending factions in government. What we should ask for is a legislative and institutional arrangement that allows carbon capture and storage or removal technologies to evolve and grow without being a mere offshoot of the oil and gas industry or any other existing sector.
As part of our efforts to reduce emissions, we must make sure all kinds of removal technologies are available that truly suit New Zealand.
Barry Barton is part of the project “Derisking Carbon Dioxide Removal at Megatonne Scale in Aotearoa” which is funded by the MBIE’s Endeavour Fund. In the past, he has received funding from MBIE and the gas industry for research on CCS legal issues.
He is a director of the Environmental Defence Society.
Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney is projected to have pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.
Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.
The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”
Poilievre’s messaging
The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.
This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.
The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.
The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.
Advance voting in a gendered election
Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.
Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.
While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?
This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.
Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.
The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.
These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.
Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.
Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.
Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.
Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.
This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.
These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.
Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hal Pawson, Professor of Housing Research and Policy, and Associate Director, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW Sydney
Any doubts that Australia’s growing housing challenges would be a major focus of the federal election campaign have been dispelled over recent weeks.
Both major parties announced strikingly ambitious housing initiatives as campaign centrepiece offers. So how do they compare?
What’s the Coalition offering?
The Coalition had already pledged several significant housing initiatives, should it form government. Among those, the biggest ticket item is the $5 billion program for enabling infrastructure to “unlock up to 500,000 new homes”.
In the absence of underpinning detail, both the wording of this pledge and its alleged potential impact have generated some scepticism.
Also announced well ahead of the campaign was the Coalition’s plan to allow first home buyers to draw down on their superannuation. They could withdraw up to $50,000 to help fund mortgage deposits.
Likewise, the Coalition’s newly unveiled plan to allow mortgage interests for first home buyers to be tax-deductible has been fiercely criticised for its likely inflationary and regressive effects.
Such arrangements are novel in Australia, but exist in some other countries. These include the Netherlands, where their impact has been recently described as damaging to both housing affordability and public finances.
What’s Labor offering?
Labor’s two new offers are to enable access to a mortgage with only a 5% deposit, and its $10 billion “Build to Sell” program.
As a demand-side instrument, the first of these could have some inflationary impact. But given the modest nature of the assistance provided, and that it only expands the existing Home Guarantee Scheme from its current maximum annual quota of 50,000 to an expected take-up of around 80,000, this is likely to be limited.
The Build to Sell plan would see collaboration with state and territory governments to commission 100,000 new homes in eight years. These would be for first home buyers only and, likely, for cost-price sale.
In further details of the plan, released just days out from polling day, Labor says the plan would be progressed partly via $2 billion in concessional loans to the states.
The whole build-to-sell idea revives the practice of the 1950s and 1960s where, in addition to constructing public housing for rent, state governments commissioned homes for sale. This contributed to the rapid rise in home ownership during that period.
As a supply-side measure, the new plan builds on the 2022 National Housing Accord. The accord aims to expand overall housing industry output to 1.2 million new homes in the five years to 2029.
Much about the Build to Sell plan has yet to be revealed. But from what we know, it looks like a bold initiative in challenging conventional modern thinking about the proper limits of direct state involvement in supplying a commodity largely provided through the market.
By expanding overall housing production, it could help in slightly moderating prices market-wide, as well as benefiting the homebuyers directly involved.
One-eyed agendas
When it comes to helping first home buyers, both parties have put forth some ambitious new propositions. But social housing and homelessness pledges have been glaringly absent from their proposals.
Neither Labor nor the Coalition has announced any significant new initiative to relieve rental stress at the lower end of the housing market, affecting millions of Australians. Measures that might, at least indirectly, help stem the rising tide of homelessness that now sees more than 10,000 newly homeless people being taken on by support agencies every month.
Given its numerous initiatives to increase assistance to low-income and otherwise disadvantaged renters already enacted since 2022, Labor has a somewhat stronger excuse here.
But while Albanese government measures, such as increased rent assistance, have eased the situation for some hard-pressed tenants, many other measures will only start to help in the next term of parliament.
That’s especially true for the Housing Australia Future Fund and all of Labor’s other post-2022 federal programs to expand social and affordable housing construction. Pledged commitments during the current parliament should add 55,000 new social and affordable homes to the national portfolio.
In combination with the Build to Sell initiative, this would see state-commissioned or otherwise funded housing construction perhaps equating to as much as 10% of all home-building later this decade. While short of the 16% achieved in the 1945-70 period, that would be a giant increase over the 1-2% typically recorded during the 2010s.
Even so, social and affordable housing investment so far pledged by Labor is limited in relation to demand. It’s estimated 640,000 households have an unmet need for social or affordable housing.
The Coalition says if it wins the election, it would abolish the housing future fund. When asked how he would replace it, Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor declared it unnecessary because “there’s billions of dollars that [already] goes to the states for social housing”.
While narrowly true, this is also disingenuous. The relatively modest funds referenced here – paid annually under the National Agreement on Social Housing and Homelessness – are entirely swallowed up in balancing the operating budgets of state public housing authorities.
With public housing systems otherwise mired deep in deficits, it’s been decades since this funding stream has been sufficient to generate any new housing supply.
In this respect, the Coalition’s 2025 housing pitch foreshadows a resumption of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison stance: nine years of federal subsidy drought for new social and affordable housing.
What else is missing?
Many have also criticised the recent major party offers as ignoring the overdue need for fundamental housing tax reform.
That’s true for Labor. But the Coalition’s pitch on mortgage interest would, in fact, amount to a major property tax reset.
Unfortunately, though, this so-called “negative gearing for first home buyers” would pile yet another damaging “market distortion” on top of all our existing property ownership tax breaks.
These concessions have, over decades, contributed to today’s housing affordability problem, as their value is capitalised into higher prices.
As observed by researcher Peter Mares, this new Coalition foray only goes to shine an even brighter light on the rational case to confront that problem head-on.
Hal Pawson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and Crisis UK. He is a part-time unpaid advisor to Senator David Pocock.
ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 29, 2025.
Why are political parties allowed to send spam texts? And how can we make them stop? Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tegan Cohen, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology Ti Wi / Unsplash Another election, another wave of unsolicited political texts. Over this campaign, our digital mailboxes have been stuffed with a slew of political appeals and promises, many from the new party
The Oscars have rolled out the red carpet for generative AI. And surprisingly, viewers don’t seem to mind Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Crosby, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, Macquarie University The Oscars have entered the age of artificial intelligence (AI). Last week the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences explicitly said, for the first time, films using generative AI tools will not be disqualified from the awards.
Echidna ancestors lived watery lifestyles like platypuses 100 million years ago – new study Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sue Hand, Professor Emeritus, Palaeontology, UNSW Sydney Mary_May/Shutterstock As the world’s only surviving egg-laying mammals, Australasia’s platypus and four echidna species are among the most extraordinary animals on Earth. They are also very different from each other. The platypus is well adapted for a semi-aquatic lifestyle, spending
‘Do something about it before it gets worse’: young people want government action on gambling reform Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Pitt, Senior Research Fellow – Institute for Health Transformation, Deakin University David P. Smith/Shutterstock Do something about it before it gets worse. This was a response from a 16-year-old boy in one of our recent studies when asked what he would say to the prime minister
‘I’m always afraid for the future of my family’: why it’s too hard for some refugees to reunite with loved ones Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mary Anne Kenny, Associate Professor, School of Law, Murdoch University When refugees flee their home country due to war, violence, conflict or persecution, they are often forced to leave behind their families. For more than 30,000 people who have sought asylum in Australia since arriving more than
Major survey finds most people use AI regularly at work – but almost half admit to doing so inappropriately Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Gillespie, Professor of Management; Chair in Trust, Melbourne Business School Matheus Bertelli/Pexels Have you ever used ChatGPT to draft a work email? Perhaps to summarise a report, research a topic or analyse data in a spreadsheet? If so, you certainly aren’t alone. Artificial intelligence (AI) tools
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Arsenic is everywhere – but new detection methods could help save lives Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Magdalena Wajrak, Senior Lecturer in Chemistry, Edith Cowan University Arsenic is a nasty poison that once reigned as the ultimate weapon of deception. In the 18th century, it was the poison of choice for those wanting to kill their enemies and spouses, favoured for its undetectable nature
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New survey shows business outlook is weakening and uncertainty rising as the trade war bites Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Simon, Adjunct Fellow in Economics, Macquarie University Vivid Brands/Shutterstock Uncertainty is everywhere these days. There is even uncertainty about the uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of Australia, for example, noted in the minutes from its April 1 meeting: The most significant development in the period leading up
How ICE is becoming a secret police force under the Trump administration Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee Morgenbesser, Associate Professor, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University Secret police are a quintessential feature of authoritarian regimes. From Azerbaijan’s State Security Service to Zimbabwe’s Central Intelligence Organisation, these agencies typically target political opponents and dissidents through covert surveillance, imprisonment and physical violence. In
Democracy on display or a public eyesore? The case for cracking down on election corflutes Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer in Marketing, Research School of Management, Australian National University In my time researching political advertising, one common communication method that often generates complaints is the proliferation of campaign corflutes. Politicians love them. Not so, many members of the general public. People are so fed
Here’s how to make your backyard safer and cooler next summer Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pui Kwan Cheung, Research Fellow in Urban Microclimates, The University of Melbourne Varavin88, Shutterstock Our backyards should be safe and inviting spaces all year round, including during the summer months. But the choices we make about garden design and maintenance, such as whether to have artificial turf
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Election Diary: Labor to slash more consultant costs and increase visa charges to pay for fresh election commitments Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The government has dug out last-minute savings of more than A$7 billion, to ensure its election commitments are more than offset in every year of the forward estimates. Its costings, released Monday, include savings of $6.4 billion from further reducing
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How much do election promises cost? And why have we had to wait so long to see the costings? Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra With the May 3 federal election less than a week away, voters have only just received Labor’s costings and are yet to hear from the Coalition. At the 2022 election, the costings were not released for nearly two months
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tegan Cohen, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology
Another election, another wave of unsolicited political texts. Over this campaign, our digital mailboxes have been stuffed with a slew of political appeals and promises, many from the new party Trumpet of Patriots (backed by Clive Palmer, a veteran of the mass text campaign).
The practice isn’t new, and it’s totally legal under current laws. It’s also non-partisan. Campaigns of all stripes have partaken. Behold, the Liberal Party’s last-minute SMS to voters about asylum seekers before the 2022 federal election, or Labor’s controversial “Mediscare” text before the 2016 poll. Despite multiple cycles of criticism, these tactics remain a persistent feature of Australian election campaigns.
A recent proposal to update decades-old rules could help change things – if a government would put it into practice.
What does the law say about political spam?
Several laws regulate spam and data collection in Australia.
First, there is the Spam Act. This legislation requires that organisations obtain our consent before sending us marketing emails, SMSs and instant messages. The unsubscribe links you see at the bottom of spam emails? Those are mandated by the Spam Act.
Second, the Do Not Call Register (DNCR) Act. This Act establishes a “do not call” register, managed by the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), which individuals can join to opt out of telemarketing calls.
Finally, there is the Privacy Act, which governs how organisations collect, use and disclose our personal information. Among other things, the Privacy Act requires that organisations tell us when and why they are collecting our personal information, and the purposes for which they intend to use it. It restricts organisations from re-purposing personal information collected for a particular purpose, unless an exception applies.
This trio of laws was designed to offer relief from unsolicited, unwanted direct marketing. It does not, however, stop the deluge of political spam at election time due to broad political exemptions sewn into the legislation decades ago.
The Spam Act and DNCR Act apply to marketing for goods and services but not election policies and promises, while the Privacy Act contains a carve-out for political parties, representatives and their contractors.
The upshot is that their campaigns are free to spam and target voters at will. Their only obligation is to disclose who authorised the message.
How do political campaigns get our information?
Secrecy about the nature and extent of campaign data operations, enabled by the exemptions, makes it difficult to pinpoint precisely where a campaign might have obtained your data from.
There are, however, a number of ways political campaigns can acquire our information.
One source is the electoral roll (though not for phone numbers, as the Australian Electoral Commission often points out). Incumbent candidates might build on this with information they obtain through contact with constituents which, thanks to the exemptions, they’re allowed to re-purpose for campaigning at election time.
Another source is data brokers – firms which harvest, analyse and sell large quantities of data and profiles.
We know the major parties have long maintained voter databases to support their targeting efforts, which have become increasingly sophisticated over the years.
Other outfits might take more haphazard approaches – former MP Craig Kelly, for example, claimed to use software to randomly generate numbers for his texting campaign in 2021.
What can be done?
Unwanted campaign texts are not only irritating to some. They can be misleading.
This year, there have been reports of “push polling” texts (pseudo surveys meant to persuade rather than gauge voter options) in the marginal seat of Kooyong. The AEC has warned about misleading postal vote applications being issued by parties via SMS.
This election campaign has seen a flood of texts from Trumpet of Patriots among others. The Conversation, CC BY-SA
Generative AI is hastening the ability to produce misleading content, cheaply and at scale, which can be quickly pushed out across an array of online social and instant messaging services.
In short, annoying texts are just one visible symptom of a wider vulnerability created by the political exemptions.
The basic argument for the political exemptions is to facilitate freedom of political communication, which is protected by the Constitution. As the High Court has said, that freedom is necessary to support informed electoral choice. It does not, however, guarantee speakers a captive audience.
In 2022, the Attorney-General’s Department proposed narrowing the political exemptions, as part of a suite of updates to the Privacy Act. Per the proposal, parties and representatives would need to be more transparent about their data operations, provide voters with an option to unsubscribe from targeted ads, refrain from targeting voters based on “sensitive information”, and handle data in a “fair and reasonable” manner.
The changes would be an overdue but welcome step, recognising the essential role of voter privacy in a functioning democratic system.
Unfortunately, the government has not committed to taking up the proposal.
A bipartisan lack of support is likely the biggest obstacle, even as the gap created by the political exemptions widens, and its rationale becomes flimsier, with each election cycle.
Tegan Cohen has received funding from the Australian Research Council (FT210100263). She has volunteered for not-for-profit groups and parties, including the Wilderness Society and the Australian Greens.
The Oscars have entered the age of artificial intelligence (AI). Last week the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences explicitly said, for the first time, films using generative AI tools will not be disqualified from the awards.
It’s a timely decision. As generative AI becomes more integrated into filmmaking, debates over creativity and authorship are intensifying. Writers’ strikes and fears of artistic displacement have dominated recent industry discussions.
But how do audiences feel about the use of AI in films? Our research suggests they may be more open to it than the industry might expect.
What the new rules say
The updated Oscars guidelines make it clear the use of generative AI will neither help, nor hinder, a film’s chances of nomination.
What matters is the degree to which people remain at the centre of the creative process. While AI tools can be part of the workflow, the judges will scrutinise the standard of human creative authorship in a given work.
This reflects broader shifts taking place in the film industry. AI tools are now embedded in many stages of production, including for high-profile and award-nominated films.
At this year’s Oscars, Adrien Brody won best actor for his performance in The Brutalist, which used generative AI to enhance the actor’s Hungarian dialogue. Emilia Pérez – the most nominated film, with 13 nods – also used AI-powered voice cloning in post-production.
The Oscars update isn’t introducing AI to Hollywood. It’s simply acknowledging the extent to which it is already in use.
Do audiences mind?
To understand how audiences respond to AI’s creative role in film, we conducted an experiment testing people’s reactions to AI-generated film ideas.
For our study, published in the Journal of Cultural Economics, we asked 500 US-based participants to rate AI-generated film “pitches” in terms of their anticipated enjoyment and likelihood of watching the film across different formats (such as cinema, online rental, or streaming).
Half of the participants were explicitly told the ideas were generated by AI, while the other half were not. Each AI-generated pitch included a synopsis, director, top-billed cast, genre, rating and runtime.
The results were clear. There was no systematic bias against AI-generated pitches. Ratings of anticipated enjoyment and likelihood of watching the films were broadly similar, regardless of whether the participants knew AI was involved.
AI-assisted versus AI-produced
It’s important to note our research focused on audience reactions to ideas – the initial pitch for a film – and not the final product. This distinction matters.
AI’s role was limited in our experiment. Human directors and cast members were implicitly part of each pitch, and there was no suggestion AI had written the full screenplay or contributed in other ways to the production of the final film.
As we note in our paper, AI’s limited involvement likely shaped participants’ responses. There was an implicit understanding that human creativity would remain central to the final product.
This aligns with broader evidence from other creative sectors. In the case of music and visual art, audiences tend to respond less favourably when they believe a work has been fully AI-generated.
Together, these findings suggest the middle ground may be the best approach. While audiences may be accepting of AI’s contribution to creative tasks such as idea generation, editing, and visual and audio effects, they still value human authorship and authenticity in the final product.
That is also the balance the Academy Awards seems to be aiming for. The new rules do not disqualify films for using AI. However, they emphasise that awards will go to works where humans remain at the heart of the creative process. For now, audiences appear to be comfortable with that approach, too.
What it means for the industry
Generative tools are becoming part of the mainstream production toolkit. And this raises important questions about creative labour, credit and compensation.
While our research suggests audiences may be open to AI-generated content, this doesn’t mean the industry can move forward without careful deliberation. The question is no longer whether AI will shape the future of film, but how – and who gets to decide the terms.
If AI is to complement, rather than diminish, the filmmaking process, it will be important to maintain clear standards and ethical guidelines around AI use, as well as a clear role for human authorship.
This includes transparency around how AI tools are used, and appropriate recognition for creative contributions – including for those whose work has been used to train generative AI systems.
The real test will be whether the industry can embrace AI without losing sight of the creative values that define it.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
As the world’s only surviving egg-laying mammals, Australasia’s platypus and four echidna species are among the most extraordinary animals on Earth.
They are also very different from each other.
The platypus is well adapted for a semi-aquatic lifestyle, spending up to 20 hours a day swimming in Australian waterways to forage for freshwater invertebrates. Echidnas, on the other hand, live entirely on land. They are widely distributed across Australia and New Guinea, and adapted for feeding on termites, ants and earthworms.
How did these differences emerge? Some researchers think echidnas evolved from a swimming, platypus-like ancestor. This hypothesis is based on evidence from aspects of their genes and anatomy, and from hypotheses about their evolutionary history.
However, this idea is controversial because fossil evidence for such a profound evolutionary transformation has been lacking – until now.
In our study published today in PNAS, we gleaned new data from a 108-million-year-old mammal humerus (arm bone), found 30 years ago at Dinosaur Cove, Victoria, by a team from Museums Victoria.
This arm bone, from a species called Kryoryctes cadburyi, belongs to an ancestral monotreme – a semi-aquatic burrower like the platypus. Our findings support the hypothesis that land-living echidnas evolved from a swimming ancestor.
Kryoryctes lived during the Age of Dinosaurs (the Mesozoic), when monotremes and monotreme relatives were more common than they are today. Glimpses of this past diversity are found in the fossil record in southern Victoria and Lightning Ridge, New South Wales.
Nevertheless, Australian Mesozoic mammal fossils are exceedingly rare, and mostly consist of teeth and jaws. Kryoryctes is the only one known from a limb bone, which provides significant information about its identity, relationships and lifestyle.
Reconstruction of Kryoryctes cadburyi and a small dinosaur (above) at Dinosaur Cove, Victoria, Australia ~108 million years ago. Peter Schouten
Tiny clues inside bones
In order to test the evolutionary relationships of Kryoryctes, we added it to a broader data set of 70 fossil and modern mammals. From there, we calculated an evolutionary tree. This showed Kryoryctes is an ancestral monotreme.
We also compared the external shape of the Kryroryctes humerus bone to living monotremes. These analyses indicated the bone is more like those of echidnas, rather than platypuses.
But it was a different story on the inside. When we looked at the internal structure of the Kryoryctes humerus with several 3D scanning techniques, we uncovered microscopic features of this arm bone that were actually more like those of the platypus.
Such tiny features inside bones yield crucial clues about the lifestyle of an animal. Numerous previous studies link bone microstructure in mammals and other tetrapods (four-limbed animals) with their ecology.
Using the wealth of data available for living mammals, we compared characteristics of the Kryoryctes humerus microstructure to those in platypuses, echidnas and 74 other mammal species.
These analyses confirmed that the Kryoryctes humerus has internal bone features found in semi-aquatic burrowing mammals (such as the platypus, muskrat and Eurasian otter), rather than land-living burrowing mammals such as the echidna.
The Kryoryctes humerus we studied. Museums Victoria
From water to land
This discovery suggests that a semi-aquatic lifestyle is ancestral for all living monotremes. It also suggests the amphibious lifestyle of the modern platypus had its origins at least 100 million years ago, during the Age of Dinosaurs.
In this scenario, the modern platypus lineage has retained the ancestral semi-aquatic burrowing lifestyle for more than 100 million years. Echidnas would have reverted to a land-based way of life more recently.
For echidnas, a return to land appears to have resulted in adaptations such as their long bones becoming lighter, as shown in our study.
They possibly also lost several other features more useful for spending time in the water rather than on land, including the loss of a long tail, reduction of webbing between fingers and toes, reduction of the duck-like bill to a narrow beak, and a reduced number of electroreceptors on that beak.
However, precisely when this evolutionary transformation occurred is not yet known. The answer must wait until early echidna fossils are found – so far, nothing definitive has turned up anywhere.
The modern habitats of monotremes are increasingly under threat from environmental degradation, interactions with humans and feral predators, and climate change. This is especially true for platypuses. To ensure the survival of this ancient lineage, we need to better understand how their unique features evolved and adapted.
Sue Hand receives funding from the Australian Research Council
Laura A. B. Wilson receives funding from the Australian Research Council
Robin Beck receives funding from the UK’s National Environmental Research Council, and the Australian Research Council.
Camilo López-Aguirre does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This was a response from a 16-year-old boy in one of our recent studies when asked what he would say to the prime minister about gambling in Australia.
Even before they can legally gamble at the age of 18, young people recognise the harms that the gambling industry (and those who profit from gambling, such as sporting codes) can cause to Australians.
And they are frustrated by a lack of government action to protect them from these harms.
They tell us that rather than prioritising the wellbeing of the community, the government is prioritising the profits of a harmful business.
Politicians are also hearing concerns about gambling from the young people they represent in their communities.
Talk to parents and young people. They’ll name all the gambling companies. They’ll be able to recite odds. They’ll talk about the odds for the upcoming games of their favourite teams. What I’m hearing from people here in the ACT that I represent is that this is not the direction they want to go in.
Gambling has become a costly pastime for many young Australians.
Starting young
For more than a decade, our team has been talking to young people and their parents about the normalisation of gambling in Australia. We have carried out multiple studies that show how pervasive marketing tactics are normalising gambling for young Australians.
Young people tell us they see innovative marketing strategies for different gambling products (including betting, lotteries and casinos) everywhere, including during family-friendly television shows, through watching and attending sport and even while walking down the street.
They increasingly see promotions on social media sites such as TikTok and Snapchat.
They can name multiple gambling brands from a young age, and think gambling gives you a reason to watch sport.
When asked why, they say gambling adds to the fun and excitement of the game. Some tell us they would be convinced to gamble if they got a good “deal” from a company.
Newer forms of app-based gambling also make it is easier for young people to gamble anywhere, anytime when they turn 18.
As an example, a young person couldn’t sit in a classroom and drink alcohol when they reach the legal age, but it is not unusual for young people to tell us that classmates use apps to bet on major events while at school.
Some researchers have also documented the extent to which young people gamble before the age of 18.
One study found 31% of 12- to 17-year-olds had ever gambled and 6% had gambled in the past month. They found 8% were at some level of risk of gambling harm.
It’s no wonder parents are worried.
Their concern about the risks of gambling are similar to their concerns about alcohol: 70% are at least somewhat concerned about the risks associated with gambling for their children, and 27.7% are extremely concerned.
They comment that gambling products are “highly accessible”, “attractive” and “in your face”.
When parents try to talk to their children about gambling, they say it is almost impossible to “get the message across” given the constant exposure to ads that their children see in their everyday lives. As one father told us:
It’s advertised to children every day of the week when they watch their favourite sport stars, so they think it’s normal.
It’s time to act
Government decisions about how to respond to the gambling industry will have a major impact on young people’s futures. But young people have rarely (if ever) been given an opportunity by the government to put forward their views.
Research shows when they are given the opportunity to comment on gambling policy (and gambling industry tactics), they carefully consider the issues. They are also able to use their own experiences to suggest strategies that would help protect them and other young people from gambling industry harm.
Young people have been central actors in the climate justice movement, and have been key stakeholders in initiatives to respond to the tactics of the junk food and tobacco industries.
While we talk a lot about the impact of the gambling industry on young people, governments rarely consult them about the policies that are needed to protect them from harm.
Yet their message to the government in our research is clear. They:
are concerned about the influence of gambling marketing on the normalisation of gambling for young people, and its short and long-term impacts
believe current restrictions aimed at protecting young people are ineffective
are critical of the overwhelmingly positive messages about gambling they are exposed to, with very limited information about the risks and harms associated with the industry and its products.
The wellbeing of the population is more important than the revenue that comes in from these sorts of businesses.
Dr Hannah Pitt has received funding from the Australian Research Council, Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, VicHealth, NSW Office of Responsible Gambling, Department of Social Services, ACT Office of Gambling and Racing Commission, and Deakin University. She is currently a member of the Editorial Board of Health Promotion International.
Grace Arnot has received funding for gambling related research from the ACT Office of Gambling and Racing Commission, VicHealth, and Deakin University. Grace is currently a member of the Editorial Board of the journal Health Promotion International.
Professor Samantha Thomas has received funding for gambling and related research from the Australian Research Council, ACT Office of Gaming and Racing, Department of Social Services, VicHealth, Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, Healthway, NSW Office of Responsible Gambling, Deakin University. She is currently Editor in Chief for Health Promotion International, an Oxford University Press journal. She receives an honorarium for this role.
Dr Simone McCarthy has received funding for gambling and related research from ACT Office of Gaming and Racing Commision, the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, VicHealth, Department of Social Services, and Deakin University. She is currently a member of the Editorial Board of Health Promotion International.
When refugees flee their home country due to war, violence, conflict or persecution, they are often forced to leave behind their families.
For more than 30,000 people who have sought asylum in Australia since arriving more than a decade ago, that separation has stretched into more than a decade. This group of people – known in policy circles as “the legacy caseload” – need a clear pathway to reunite with family members.
Refugees separated from family are plagued by guilt and worry for their family members’ safety. This makes it extremely difficult to focus on education, work or getting settled.
The right to family unity is a basic human right and vital to any humane refugee policy.
However, tensions arise between refugees’ conceptions of family and the restrictive definitions embedded in Australian law.
High costs, complex administrative requirements, and lengthy processing times often delay or prevent families from reuniting.
The legacy caseload: more than a decade in limbo
The so-called “legacy caseload” refers to approximately 30,000 people who arrived by boat between 2012 and 2014, and who were placed on Temporary Protection Visas.
For more than a decade, they were denied a pathway to permanency and barred from sponsoring family members to join them in Australia.
That policy made life so unbearable, more than 6,500 people from this group “chose” to return home despite the risks they face. This raises serious concerns about whether they were genuinely able to make a free choice, or were pushed into returning to danger.
Since the Albanese government’s 2022 commitment to end temporary protection, almost 20,000 people have been eligible to transition to permanent visas through the Resolution of Status process.
This is a crucial step. Without a permanent visa, they could not sponsor family members.
Even with permanency, however, family reunion remains out of reach for many “legacy caseload” refugees. This is due to outdated laws, harsh policies and bureaucratic delays.
Many of these refugees have not seen their spouses or children since before their arrival. Because they arrived by boat, they are barred from proposing family members through the humanitarian visa program and must use the family migration program.
That’s significant because the humanitarian program has a much broader definition of “family”, and grants people access to settlement services after they arrive.
Still unresolved is the fate of some 7,000 people who were refused protection under the flawed fast track system (a now abandoned policy that was supposed to speed up processing but actually introduced delays and unfairness).
The main barriers to family reunification for refugees include:
high visa fees (partner visa application charges, when they include children, can cost more than A$20,000)
strict legal definitions (children over 23 are not classified as “dependents”; a child who was 12 when their parent fled may now be 24 — legally an adult, but still dependent and at risk)
barriers to documentation (war and instability can make it difficult or dangerous to obtain documents, such as passports or identity papers)
limited access to embassies
technical issues with online applications
repeated health checks (there is a visa requirement health checks but they are only valid for 12 months, so may need to be repeated if visa processing is delayed)
unclear rules around exemptions.
These uncertainties further delay the process and add emotional and financial strain.
introducing visa application charge concessions for refugees
allowing people to pay fees in instalments
adapting visa processing to reflect realities faced by refugee and humanitarian visa applicants, such as challenges obtaining identity documents
establishing a dedicated unit in the Department of Home Affairs for processing visas from refugee families
prioritising families where children may “age out”.
They have also called for changes to the legal definitions of “dependent” and “member of the family unit”. This is to reflect the diverse familial structures in many refugee communities.
For many refugees, family extends beyond the Western concept of the nuclear family. It may also encompass, for instance, adult daughters and parents (who often play pivotal care-giving roles).
Another big issue for many refugee families is single young women in Afghanistan being left behind because they have aged out.
Reuniting families
Australia can learn from other countries.
Canada’s refugee sponsorship program actively supports family reunification.
New Zealand offers a more affordable and flexible system. Their definitions of family are broader and visa fees are lower.
Without family reunion, a refugee’s safety remains incomplete.
I’m partly safer [in Australia], but inside I’m not safe […] I’m always afraid for the future of my family.
Thousands of refugees in Australia are still waiting. Their families remain in danger. The legal and policy tools to fix this already exist. What’s missing, for now, is the political will.
Reforming Australia’s family reunion system would mean more efficient refugee resettlement and integration, ultimately benefiting broader Australian society.
Mary Anne Kenny is a member of the Migration Institute of Australia and the Law Council of Australia and an affiliate of the UNSW Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law. She was on the Ministerial Council on Asylum Seekers and Detention (an independent advisory body) between 2012 and 2018.
Have you ever used ChatGPT to draft a work email? Perhaps to summarise a report, research a topic or analyse data in a spreadsheet? If so, you certainly aren’t alone.
Artificial intelligence (AI) tools are rapidly transforming the world of work. Released today, our global study of more than 32,000 workers from 47 countries shows that 58% of employees intentionally use AI at work – with a third using it weekly or daily.
Most employees who use it say they’ve gained some real productivity and performance benefits from adopting AI tools.
However, a concerning number are using AI in highly risky ways – such as uploading sensitive information into public tools, relying on AI answers without checking them, and hiding their use of it.
There’s an urgent need for policies, training and governance on responsible use of AI, to ensure it enhances – not undermines – how work is done.
Most employees report performance benefits from AI adoption at work. These include improvements in:
efficiency (67%)
information access (61%)
innovation (59%)
work quality (58%).
These findings echo prior research demonstrating AI can drive productivity gains for employees and organisations.
We found general-purpose generative AI tools, such as ChatGPT, are by far the most widely used. About 70% of employees rely on free, public tools, rather than AI solutions provided by their employer (42%).
However, almost half the employees we surveyed who use AI say they have done so in ways that could be considered inappropriate (47%) and even more (63%) have seen other employees using AI inappropriately.
One key concern surrounding AI tools in the workplace is the handling of sensitive company information – such as financial, sales or customer information.
Nearly half (48%) of employees have uploaded sensitive company or customer information into public generative AI tools, and 44% admit to having used AI at work in ways that go against organisational policies.
This aligns with other research showing 27% of content put into AI tools by employees is sensitive.
Check your answer
We found complacent use of AI is also widespread, with 66% of respondents saying they have relied on AI output without evaluating it. It is unsurprising then that a majority (56%) have made mistakes in their work due to AI.
Younger employees (aged 18-34 years) are more likely to engage in inappropriate and complacent use than older employees (aged 35 or older).
About a third (35%) of employees say the use of AI tools in their workplace has increased privacy and compliance risks.
‘Shadow’ AI use
When employees aren’t transparent about how they use AI, the risks become even more challenging to manage.
We found most employees have avoided revealing when they use AI (61%), presented AI-generated content as their own (55%), and used AI tools without knowing if it is allowed (66%).
This invisible or “shadow AI” use doesn’t just exacerbate risks – it also severely hampers an organisation’s ability to detect, manage and mitigate risks.
A lack of training, guidance and governance appears to be fuelling this complacent use. Despite their prevalence, only a third of employees (34%) say their organisation has a policy guiding the use of generative AI tools, with 6% saying their organisation bans it.
Pressure to adopt AI may also fuel complacent use, with half of employees fearing they will be left behind if they do not.
Almost half of respondents said they had uploaded company financial, sales or customer information into public AI tools. Andrey_Popov/Shutterstock
Better literacy and oversight
Collectively, our findings reveal a significant gap in the governance of AI tools and an urgent need for organisations to guide and manage how employees use them in their everyday work. Addressing this will require a proactive and deliberate approach.
Investing in responsible AI training and developing employees’ AI literacy is key. Our modelling shows self-reported AI literacy – including training, knowledge, and efficacy – predicts not only whether employees adopt AI tools but also whether they critically engage with them.
This includes how well they verify the tools’ output, and consider their limitations before making decisions.
We found AI literacy is also associated with greater trust in AI use at work and more performance benefits from its use.
Despite this, less than half of employees (47%) report having received AI training or related education.
Organisations also need to put in place clear policies, guidelines and guardrails, systems of accountability and oversight, and data privacy and security measures.
There are many resources to help organisations develop robust AI governance systems and support responsible AI use.
The right culture
On top of this, it’s crucial to create a psychologically safe work environment, where employees feel comfortable to share how and when they are using AI tools.
The benefits of such a culture go beyond better oversight and risk management. It is also central to developing a culture of shared learning and experimentation that supports responsible diffusion of AI use and innovation.
AI has the potential to improve the way we work. But it takes an AI-literate workforce, robust governance and clear guidance, and a culture that supports safe, transparent and accountable use. Without these elements, AI becomes just another unmanaged liability.
This research was supported by the Chair in Trust research partnership between the University of Melbourne and KPMG Australia and funding from KPMG International. The research was conducted independently by Professor Nicole Gillespie and Dr Steve Lockey and their research team at Melbourne Business School, The University of Melbourne, and published in collaboration with KPMG.