Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucas Walsh, Professor and Director of the Centre for Youth Policy and Education Practice, Monash University

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services have dramatically changed the landscape of personal lending, largely by being easy to access and not charging interest – thus avoiding national credit laws.

In the 2021-22 financial year, according to data from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the number of active BNPL accounts in Australia rose from 5 million to 7 million. Collectively, these users spent A$16 billion, about 37% more than the previous years (and about 2% of all card purchases).

With the federal government now considering options to better regulate the industry, we’ve been researching how this largely unregulated but growing corner of the debt market is affecting BNPL’s biggest users – young adults.

Our annual survey of people aged 18-24, the Australian Youth Barometer conducted in August, indicates 27% of young people used BNPL in the past 12 months. BNPL’s popularity as a credit product is only surpassed by credit cards, used by 31% of young Australians in the past year.

About the Australian Youth Barometer

This is the second year of the Australian Youth Barometer, a nationally representative survey sample of 505 Australians aged 18-24.

In 2021 we asked young people if they had ever used a BNPL service. This year, we asked about BNPL use over the previous year.

In the 2021 Australian Youth Barometer 53% of participants said they had ever used a BNPL service. That result was broadly consistent with research from the Australian Finance Industry Association. In March 2021, AFIA’s surveys found 44% of those aged 18-24, and 52% of those aged 25-35, had used BNPL. By March 2022 those percentages rose to 55% and 58%, respectively.

Financial difficulties are widespread

Our 2022 survey reports that 90% of young Australians experienced financial difficulties at some point during the past year. About a quarter said this happened often or very often.

In our 2021 survey, 82% said they had experienced financial difficulties during the previous two years.

Financial stress is correlated with BNPL use. Our 2022 survey data indicates 30% of those very often in financial difficulties over the previous year used BNPL services, compared with just 8% of those who had never experienced financial difficulty.

But the relationship is not clear-cut, with BNPL use being most prevalent among those who experience financial difficulties only sometimes.

Attitudes to BNPL

Generalisations about young people being “hooked” on BNPL credit are therefore inaccurate. As in any demographic, attitudes vary.

Our 2021 survey results indicate about half are wary of BNPL services, agreeing they have a negative effect on young people’s financial behaviour.

But as incomes fail to keep up with the cost of living – particularly for energy and housing – the high use of BNPL should ring regulatory alarm bells.

The Treasury’s consultation paper on regulating the BNPL industry notes the need to subject BNPL companies to the same type of responsible lending standards and requirements imposed on credit providers through Australia’s National Consumer Credit Protection Act.

Read more:
What’s the difference between credit and debt? How Afterpay and other ‘BNPL’ providers skirt consumer laws

BNPL products are not subject to these credit laws because they don’t charge interest, which is key to the act’s definition of credit provision. As the Treasury paper notes:

This unintended regulatory gap creates the potential for consumer harm due to the absence of key protections available to other products regulated by the Credit Act.

Closing this gap is important to increase protections for young people and BNPL users.

But just as important is to address the underlying causes of financial insecurity that push people into debt in the first place.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 90% of young people had financial troubles in 2022, and 27% used ‘buy now, pay later’ services – https://theconversation.com/90-of-young-people-had-financial-troubles-in-2022-and-27-used-buy-now-pay-later-services-195809

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jan Hogan, Senior lecturer, School of Creative Arts & Media, University of Tasmania

In Oceans of Air, the new exhibition at Hobart’s Mona, artist Tomás Saraceno imagines a future where humans become as sensitive to the environment as a spider in its web. He invites visitors to become participants in his multiple networks and projects. He aims to make us aware of our interconnections with each other and the world.

Held in the underground labyrinthine galleries of Mona, we are invited to reconsider the boundaries between natural and cultural worlds.

As we descend through Mona’s central staircases, the reflective sculptural orbs Aerocene 4 and 5 weave Mona’s architecture and collections into the Saraceno world. Stairs and artworks twist and turn in the reflections.

Reminiscent of Escher’s 1923 Relativity lithograph, the laws of gravity are confounded. The binding on the balloons could be tethering them to the building or preventing their fall, like eggs in a spider web.

Before entering the dark subterranean galleries, a photograph shows Saraceno floating below a fuel-free hot air balloon on the boundary between earth and sky.

A multi-sensory experience

Argentinean Tomás Saraceno is a Berlin-based artist, interested in collaborations with research institutes to further our collective knowledge around atmospheres and arachnids.

Submerging into dark gallery spaces may seem a strange phenomenon for an exhibition titled Oceans of Air, however Saraceno and Mona curators Emily Pike and Olivier Varenne have carefully orchestrated the experience. They play with beams of light and the twisting turns of the galleries to make participants slow down and engage in a multi-sensory experience.

Within one darkened room, we encounter Particular Matter(s), 2021, a single light beam travelling across space, landing as a moon formation on the felted wall.

Floating in this light beam (according to the guide), is cosmic dust, PM2.5 (particulate matter), stellar wind, air movement, kinaesthetic feedback and sonic waves.

In other words: the dust and atmospheric conditions present in the gallery today.

Adjacent is a photograph, NORAD 40983 (2015-059B), 2016 displaying the Large Magellanic Cloud, one of the closest galaxies to our own Milky Way, with a line revealing the trail of a satellite. Saraceno encountered this image when visiting Bolivia’s Salar de Uyuni, the world’s largest salt pan.

Here, the sky is reflected on a large salt flat. We become suspended in space, our bodies becoming insignificant matter. Standing between this photograph and the salt covered ground, we shift from godlike creatures scattering particles with our movements to an insignificant speck in the galaxy.

À lire aussi :
An expanding universe and distant stars: tips on how to experience cosmology from your backyard

Fleetingly visible

The images in We Do Not All Breathe the Same Air are presented in the format of moon charts revealing the natural rhythms of the solar system.

But instead of charting our solar system, these digital prints capture samples of air pollution collected from each state of Australia. The traces of pollutants are a physical reminder of what is invisible in this part of the world, but painfully obvious in cities like Mumbai.

Printed Matter(s) are exquisite images of cosmic dust invisible to the naked eye that surround us. They are printed with black carbon PM2.5 pollution extracted from the air in Mumbai on featherlight handmade paper.

Distantly spotlit, the images shift in and out of focus in response to currents of air. The invisible is made fleetingly visible, the insubstantial paper accentuating what is held in currents of air.

In Webs of At-tent(s)ion, 2022, Saraceno convincingly lays claim to the cultural activity of the “More Than Human World”: a phrase coined by the ecologist and philosopher David Abrams to include humans within a broader understanding of the natural world.

We are presented with glass and metal frames containing exquisite spider web architectures. The constellations of webs were made from spiders invited by a thread to weave within the carbon-fibre frames provided in the space of the studio.

The resilience of the fully formed webs when preserved in glass boxes is made testament through surviving shipping from Saraceno’s Berlin studio.

These intricate universes are spotlit in the darkened gallery. Walking around these forms in the gallery reveals innovations in materials and forms undreamed of by humans.

À lire aussi :
Explainer: what are the environmental humanities?

New ways of being

The video Living at the bottom of the ocean of air takes us into the life of the diving bell spider who gathers a bubble of air to live under the surface of water. It is in keeping with the sensation of being in the subterranean depths of Mona where air has been trapped and circulated for our survival.

In the many rooms, we begin to realise the networks Saraceno has set up. He is weaving interconnections around the world using human technology to question itself, ask new questions and imagine new ways of being in the world.

Nearing the end of the exhibits we encounter Sounding the Air, 2022, which has threads of spider silk suspended between poles, inspired by ballooning – where some spiders release threads to take flight on currents of air. As the threads here drift in the air, their physical undulations are translated by video into sound.

As we exit the exhibition and once again encounter the silver orbs floating in the Mona staircases, we connect again with Saraceno’s invitation to become explorers in sympathy with the rhythms of the earth.

Tomás Saraceno: Float on Oceans of Air is at Mona, Hobart, until July 24.

Jan Hogan ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Artist Tomás Saraceno wants to improve our knowledge about atmospheres – and arachnids – https://theconversation.com/artist-tomas-saraceno-wants-to-improve-our-knowledge-about-atmospheres-and-arachnids-196035

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Belinda Wheaton, Professor, School of Sport, Health and Human Performance, University of Waikato

With summer here, families and tourists will flock to New Zealand’s beaches, rivers and lakes to paddle, swim, surf, fish, boat and kayak. But despite our love of the water, New Zealanders have a terrible record of drowning deaths.

Last summer was the worst year for drownings in a decade. Our ten-year average beach and coastal drowning rate is 44% per capita higher than Australia’s. According to Water Safety NZ chief executive Daniel Gerrard, “Drowning is the leading cause of recreational death and the third-highest cause of accidental death.”

The data also reveal that Asian and Māori communities are over-represented in both fatal and non-fatal drownings. New Zealand research suggests Western approaches to water safety have not worked for Māori. Water safety educators and advocates are now working to strengthen the connection Māori have with water through whakapapa (genealogy), mātauranga (knowledge) and tikanga (custom).

Our research with the Auckland Chinese community suggests the same may be needed for Asian New Zealanders, who are expected to make up 26% of the population by 2043. Asian drowning fatalities in 2021 more than doubled from 2020, from seven to 19. This was 72% more than the five-year average of 11. Understanding how best to educate the Asian community about water safety is a clear priority.

More support for migrants

Many first-generation Chinese grew up in urban areas where outdoor swimming in lakes and reservoirs was either not allowed or seen as dangerous. They arrived in Aotearoa with little interest or experience of the outdoors, often avoiding water out of fear.

Many are overprotective of their children around water. As one explained: “I don’t feel safe enough for my kids to go to play in the sea.” Another parent told us: “We think many sports that locals love to do are very dangerous and adventurous and we are afraid of doing those […] and ocean activities are one of those dangerous and adventurous sports.”

Read more:
When is the right time for children to learn to swim?

The general manager of Sir Peter Blake Marine Education Recreation Centre, Yuin Khai Foong, argues that new Asian migrants need greater support to understand and navigate their new environment – especially the water.

In New Zealand, you cannot avoid it […] Water skills need to be for everyone, because you never know when you’re going to end up interacting with the water intentionally or unintentionally […] when you could be a bystander to someone in need of assistance in the water. Having water skills is good for us as individuals and as a community.

Support organisation ActivAsian has found Chinese parents – especially those who have been in New Zealand for some time – want their children to learn to swim. Matching that desire with access to learning opportunities – and funding – is the challenge.

Declining water skills

There is already a problem with New Zealand children in general not learning basic water skills. As one 2018 media report put it bluntly: “Kiwi kids may be losing the ability to swim”.

A report commissioned this year by Water Safety NZ showed 48% of children weren’t having swimming lessons. Water safety skills, however, involve more than the ability to swim in a pool. The Water Skills for Life program incorporates 27 core skills, but only 301,226 children aged five to 13 completed it in 2021, leaving 174,753 missing out.

Furthermore, according to a recent international study, vital water skills should include the ability to identify risks such as rips and tide changes, as well as awareness of one’s personal ability.

Read more:
Rip currents are a natural hazard along coasts – here’s how to spot them

A 2020 study using Muriwai beach near Auckland found only 22% of those surveyed were able to successfully identify a rip (experienced local surfers and body-boarders scored much higher).

Research consistently finds men are more likely to overestimate their ability and underestimate the risks, too often with fatal results.

And it appears some Chinese men share this trait. One interviewee described Chinese men as “daring”; another said they were “really brave – they want to give it a try”. But many were also “ignorant about the sea [with] no reverence for nature”.

Rock fishing was identified as a particularly dangerous but increasingly popular activity. Unprepared participants try to access dangerous fishing spots, wearing inappropriate clothing such as gumboots.

Reluctance to wear lifejackets was also highlighted. Figures show two-thirds of small-boat drownings involve people not wearing life jackets. Water Safety NZ has called for urgent changes to regulations so everyone on small boats is required to wear a life jacket.

Read more:
Summer ‘revenge travel’ could raise drowning risk at beaches, but new tech might help

Culture and safety

As well as co-ordinated strategies for water safety education, and better resourcing of school programs, community providers like ActivAsian (Auckland) have shown there is a clear need for culturally specific support in order to change attitudes and behaviours.

Greater inter-generational involvement is also needed. As one interviewee said: “There’s no point having a whole bunch of kids come in [if] mum and dad don’t see it. They don’t get it. They don’t support it.”

Water Safety NZ and its partners do provide funding, information and training, but the key messages are not having the desired impact – especially with men and Māori and Asian communities.

The beach is an important cultural and health resource. As the Environment Aotearoa 2022 report argues, “Recreational activities create strong bonds between people and the coastal places they visit, as well as providing stress relief and promoting mental and physical wellbeing.”

Making this a safe reality for all New Zealanders, including Asian migrants, will require targeted funding and culturally relevant knowledge and education. Otherwise, we risk a repeat of last year’s tragic drowning statistics.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Too many Māori and Asian people are drowning – can better cultural understanding reverse the trend? – https://theconversation.com/too-many-maori-and-asian-people-are-drowning-can-better-cultural-understanding-reverse-the-trend-196576

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee-Fay Low, Professor in Ageing and Health, University of Sydney

Almost 400,000 Australians are living with dementia. A million or more family members and friends care for and support them. About two-thirds of people with dementia live in the community.

Deciding to move a loved one into a nursing home is an incredibly difficult one. I found it difficult and stressful considering this move for my own loved one, even with 20 years of experience in dementia and aged care. Sometimes the decision has to be made quickly, such as when the person is in hospital. Sometimes the decision takes much longer and is made over months, or even years.

There are some important things you should consider when trying to decide the best option for you and your loved one. I’ve outlined six here.

1. Your loved ones’ views around going into care

We don’t want to force our loved one to do something against their wishes. It’s unusual for someone to want to go into a nursing home. It may take many conversations and a decent amount of time before your loved one accepts they might need more care and that a nursing home is the right place to get that care.

Read more:
Why people with dementia don’t all behave the same

2. Your loved one’s current quality of life

If you think your loved one has an overall good quality of life, and that their quality of life may decrease when they go into a nursing home, this could be a sign you should keep trying to support the person to live at home.

However, if their quality of life is currently poor, particularly if this is due to not having enough day-to-day physical care, health care or emotional support, then moving into a nursing home might help meet their daily needs.

Spend some time observing to figure out how your loved one is doing at home.

You could perhaps make a list of the things they need to lead a good life (company, three square meals, help taking medicines, going out into the community) and see if these are currently being met.

3. Risks if your loved one stays at home

People often go into a nursing home because we think they are no longer safe living at home.

It might be possible to reduce some of the risks of them being at home through modifying the home and using technology (personal emergency alarms, GPS trackers, stove timers) or services (meals on wheels, community care, physiotherapy for mobility).

Read more:
Older people who get lost sometimes sadly lose their lives. But those with dementia are more likely to survive

4. Capacity of your loved one’s family and friends to keep supporting them

The availability and capacity of family carers is probably the most crucial part in supporting someone with dementia to keep living well at home. Carers often have other responsibilities such as work and children, which means they can’t support their loved one as much as they would like.

Being a carer is physically and emotionally demanding, and over time caring can take its toll. Carers should seek help and support from other family and friends, learn more about dementia, use services including respite care and Dementia Australia.

Carers often face a difficult choice between their own health and wellbeing, and supporting their loved one to remain at home. If carers are caring as much as their time, energy and physical and mental wellbeing will allow, and that care is not enough for their loved one’s needs, then more help is needed – and residential care is one way of getting that help.

5. Alternatives to nursing home care

Community care services are government-subsidised services to support older people to keep living at home. You can get up to 14 hours of care a week depending on need, though there is an assessment process and often a waiting time for services. You can pay for community care privately as well, although this can be very expensive.

An Aged Care Navigator (or from 2023 an “aged care finder”) can help you search for suitable available home care services.

Some families choose to move in with the person with dementia, or have them move in with family. This may be an option if there is suitable accommodation, and they are able to live together comfortably.

6. Availability of quality nursing home care

It’s emotionally easier to place a loved one in a nursing home if carers are confident the home will provide suitable care. Often, family want a nursing home that is geographically close so they can visit, has a suitable room (such as a single room with an ensuite), sufficient and kind staff with training in supporting people with dementia, a pleasant environment, nutritious appealing food, and quality clinical care.

It takes time to visit and pick a suitable nursing home, check it’s appropriately accredited, and understand how much it will cost. You might have to wait for a bed in a quality home. You can often trial the nursing home by having your loved one stay for two weeks of respite care.

When your loved one enters nursing home care, you’ll still be caring for them. You want to ensure you can continue to support your loved one emotionally and practically in partnership with the nursing home.

Read more:
What do aged care residents do all day? We tracked their time use to find out

Getting help

Usually there is no “right” or “wrong” decision. You might struggle and there might be family conflict around what the “right” decision is.

Speaking to a counsellor at Dementia Australia might help work through the options and your feelings, you can talk to them as an individual or attend as a family.

Lee-Fay Low works with Dementia Australia and the Forward with Dementia campaign. She has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Dementia Australia, Federal and NSW governments, and the Benevolent Society. She collaborates with many residential and community aged care providers including HammondCare, The Whiddon Group and Calvary Aged Care.

– ref. Should we move our loved one with dementia into a nursing home? 6 things to consider when making this tough decision – https://theconversation.com/should-we-move-our-loved-one-with-dementia-into-a-nursing-home-6-things-to-consider-when-making-this-tough-decision-189770

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Juliet Sefton, Assistant Lecturer, Monash University

Sea levels in Micronesia rose much faster over the past 5,000 years than previously thought, according to our new study published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

This sea-level rise is shown by the accumulation of mangrove sediments on the islands of Pohnpei and Kosrae. The finding may change how we think about when people migrated into Remote Oceania, and where they might have voyaged from.

Formidable voyagers

While recent decades saw significant advancements in linguistic, bio-anthropological and archaeological research in the region, the exact pattern and timing of human settlement of Remote Oceania is still debated.

Humans began migration into Remote Oceania – the area of the “open” Pacific Ocean east of New Guinea and the Philippines – some 3,300–3,500 years ago. This migration required formidable long-distance ocean voyaging of the likes never seen before in human history.

Read more:
What wind, currents and geography tell us about how people first settled Oceania

The region of Micronesia extends many thousands of kilometres and contains thousands of low-lying atolls. Many of these atolls formed roughly 2,500 years ago when the sea level in the region stabilised close to where it is today.

Before that, the sea level might have been up to two metres higher than at present. People could only settle these atolls successfully once sea levels had lowered and stabilised.

But there are also older and higher volcanic islands in Micronesia. Across Remote Oceania, these higher islands were more desirable for settlement than low-lying atolls because they have more reliable freshwater sources, more developed soils for agriculture, and are less vulnerable to storm surges.

We looked at the published ages of settlement across the western part of Remote Oceania and found that high islands tend to show earlier ages of settlement compared to atolls, which is what we would expect. But we don’t see this pattern in Micronesia: the high islands of Pohnpei and Kosrae show settlement ages about 1,000 years later than other similar islands. Why?

Mangrove clues

Deep within the mangrove forests of Pohnpei and Kosrae, previous researchers found mangrove sediments up to five metres deep. The only explanation for such deep mangrove sediments is sustained sea-level rise.

Mangroves live at the coast, between low tide and high tide. Therefore, as sea level rises, organic carbon and sediments accumulate beneath the mangrove forests, creating deep soils.

We visited the mangroves on Pohnpei and Kosrae and collected sediment cores to find out how old the sediments beneath them were. Our new data, as well as previous works, show that the oldest mangrove sediment is about 5,700 years old.

From this, we calculated that over the past 5,700 years, sea level rose by about four metres. The most likely cause for this rise is that the islands are sinking: the land is going down relative to the sea surface.

In our new study, we suggest this sea-level rise obscured the archaeological record on Pohnpei and Kosrae. Consequently, evidence of earlier settlement – in line with other high islands – may be submerged today.

It is possible that people settled this region of Micronesia much earlier than previously thought, which also raises questions about whether people voyaged from the west or from the south to reach these islands.

A testament to rising seas

The UNESCO World Heritage Site of Nan Madol on Pohnpei may also stand as a testament to rising seas. Nan Madol is an impressive array of abandoned megalithic buildings constructed from dark basalt columns and crushed coral.

This site has been dubbed the “Venice of the Pacific” because of the characteristic network of waterways around the buildings, resembling canals and islets.

Our record of sea-level rise from the mangrove sediment shows that when Nan Madol was constructed (around 1180 to 1200 CE), the sea level was nearly one metre lower than it is today.

We suggest that it is unlikely Nan Madol was built with canals and islands in mind. Rather, the canals and islets are a result of sea-level rise over nearly 1,000 years.

Much like island nations today, large stone walls may have been constructed to protect the site from waves that were slowly encroaching higher and higher.

Read more:
Islands lost to the waves: how rising seas washed away part of Micronesia’s 19th-century history

Juliet Sefton received funding from the US National Science Foundation (award number OCE-1831382) and was hosted by Tufts University while conducting this research. Juliet now works at Monash University.

Andrew Kemp receives funding from the US National Science Foundation (award OCE-1831382).

Mark D. McCoy has received funding from the US National Science Foundation, New Zealand’s Marsden Fund, and National Geographic.

– ref. 5,700 years of sea-level change in Micronesia hint at humans arriving much earlier than we thought – https://theconversation.com/5-700-years-of-sea-level-change-in-micronesia-hint-at-humans-arriving-much-earlier-than-we-thought-196655

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julian Koplin, Lecturer in Bioethics, Monash University & Honorary fellow, Melbourne Law School, Monash University

Neuralink, the biotechnology company co-founded by Elon Musk, has been accused of animal cruelty and is under federal investigation in the United States for potential animal welfare violations.

The company has tested its brain-implant technology in animals including monkeys, sheep and pigs. Whistleblowers allege it has killed about 1,500 animals since 2018.

They claim testing was rushed, which caused significant animal suffering and required botched experiments to be repeated – harming more animals than necessary.

This scandal highlights an old but important question: when is it acceptable to harm non-human animals for human ends?

Read more:
Neuralink’s monkey can play Pong with its mind. Imagine what humans could do with the same technology

Moral confusion

The condemnation of Neuralink suggests many people view animal suffering as a serious moral problem. We find similar attitudes when people are outraged by pet owners neglecting or abusing their pets.

But our responses to animal suffering are complicated. Surveys show many people think at least some forms of animal research are ethically acceptable, such as medical research where alternatives aren’t available. Most people also think it is not morally evil to buy a hamburger, animal welfare concerns aside.

Our attitudes towards animals are confusing – and arguably self-serving. We need to think more carefully about how animals ought to be treated.

Do animals matter?

In the 17th century, philosopher René Descartes famously described animals as mere “automata”. He believed they lack a soul and a mind, and are therefore incapable of suffering.

But progress in fields such as ethology and the cognitive sciences has improved our understanding of animal behaviour, and we have come to appreciate animals have rich mental lives. There is now scientific consensus that mammals, birds and many others are capable of feeling pain and pleasure.

One might argue that, even if animals can suffer, ethics should only concern how we treat fellow humans since animals are not “one of us”. But this view is unsatisfying.

If somebody were to say it doesn’t matter how we treat people with a different skin colour, because they are not “one of us”, we would (rightly) call them racist. Those who claim the same about animals can be accused of making a similar mistake.

Our treatment of animals has come under increasing philosophical scrutiny since the time of Descartes. Some of the most powerful challenges have come from utilitarian philosophers such as Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832) and Peter Singer, whose 1975 book Animal Liberation was a rallying point for critics of livestock farming and animal research.

But the case for animal welfare isn’t just utilitarian. Thinkers from diverse philosophical traditions share this position.

Philosophical views on animal welfare

Philosophers usually think about animal suffering in accordance with one of three moral theories: utilitarianism, deontology and virtue ethics.

Utilitarians believe we should do what best promotes the overall wellbeing of everybody affected by a choice. They typically hold that all suffering matters equally, regardless of who experiences it, or even what species they belong to.

In 1789, Bentham argued that when it comes to animal welfare:

[…] the question is not, can they reason? Nor, can they talk? But can they suffer?

Deontologists emphasise duties and rights over welfare. They maintain we are not morally permitted to violate rights, even when doing so would promote overall wellbeing.

The great deontologist philosopher Immanuel Kant held that humans have rights because of our rationality (which more or less refers to our abilities to reason and make moral decisions). Kant believed animals aren’t rational and therefore don’t have rights (although he claimed we should still refrain from mistreating them since, according to him, that might make us more likely to mistreat humans).

Kant’s rejection of animal rights faces two challenges. First, some argue certain intelligent species, such as elephants and chimpanzees, are also rational and hence deserve rights.

Second, many contemporary deontologists argue we should set a less demanding threshold for moral rights. Rather than requiring rationality, they suggest it might be enough for an animal to have desires and interests.

Virtue ethicists take yet another approach. They think morality is a matter of developing and practising good character traits, such as honesty and compassion, while avoiding traits like dishonesty and cowardice. Virtue ethicists who deal with animal ethics have argued animal experimentation displays and reinforces vices like callousness and cruelty, particularly when research is unlikely to achieve morally important goals.

Neuralink revisited

In Australia and the United States, animal research is governed largely by the “three Rs”: directives to replace animal research with other strategies when feasible, reduce the number of animals used as much as possible, and refine experimental techniques to minimise animal pain.

If the reports about Neuralink are correct, the company failed to adhere to these. But what if Neuralink had conducted experiments in line with the three Rs – would this have resolved all ethical concerns?

Probably not. The three Rs are silent on one crucial question: whether the scientific gains from a particular study are great enough to justify the harms that research may inflict.

So long as an experiment is scientifically sound, one could, in principle, follow the three Rs to the letter while still inflicting severe suffering on a great many animals, and with little prospect of benefiting humans. If animals have moral worth, as the utilitarian, deontological and virtue ethical views state, then at least some scientifically sound animal research should not be conducted.

Neuralink has admirable goals, which include curing paralysis, blindness and depression.

But utilitarians might question whether the expected benefits are great enough (or likely enough) to outweigh the significant harms to animals. Deontologists might question whether any of the species used have moral rights against being experimented on, particularly intelligent ones such as monkeys and pigs. And virtue ethicists might worry the testing performed involves vices such as callousness.

Where are we headed?

Animal research is widely practised in Australia, with more than 6 million animals reportedly used per year. Some (but not all) of this research involves significant pain and suffering. Mice are the most common animal used, though species such as dogs, cats and non-human primates are also used.

The vast number of lives at stake mean it is imperative to get the ethics right.

This means developing a more comprehensive set of principles for animal research than the three Rs: one that will help us more effectively balance scientific benefit against harms to research animals. At least among philosophers, this work is already under way.

It might also involve revisiting the question of when (if ever) certain species should be used in research. Australia imposes special restrictions on the use of non-human primates. Other jurisdictions have banned or considered banning ape research. What other intelligent species ought to receive additional protections?

We need to look beyond the three Rs for a full assessment of the ethics of animal research – both for Neuralink and beyond.

Read more:
What is ethical animal research? A scientist and veterinarian explain

Julian Koplin receives funding from Ferring Pharmaceuticals.

– ref. Can we ethically justify harming animals for research? There are several schools of thought – https://theconversation.com/can-we-ethically-justify-harming-animals-for-research-there-are-several-schools-of-thought-196387

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, La Trobe University

In the annals of Australian foreign policy, it is arguable that no moment in history has been as significant as December 21 1972. With the possible exception of the ANZUS Treaty of 1951, no other document matches the formal agreement establishing full diplomatic relations between Australia and China 50 years ago this week.

In the maelstrom of events in the meantime, it is easy to forget where we were in 1972, and where we are now in relation to the emerging dominant power in our region.

History is important to better comprehend the present.

Read more:
Wong to visit Beijing as ‘strategic dialogue’ restarts in new breakthrough in Australia-China relations

Whitlam opens the door

In July 1971, Australia’s then opposition leader, Gough Whitlam, effectively rolled the dice politically by going to China. The trip was ostensibly to discuss trade. In reality the purpose was to lay the ground for full diplomatic recognition should he become prime minister after the 1972 election.

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Whitlam took a calculated political risk in an environment in which a perceived China “threat” remained a useful wedge in the conservative political arsenal.

The Whitlam visit could hardly have been more propitious. No sooner had he left China and discussions with Premier Zhou Enlai than it was revealed that Henry Kissinger, then national security adviser to US President Richard Nixon, had paid a secret visit to China to negotiate the terms for Nixon’s mission to Beijing and Shanghai the following year.

Before the Kissinger visit became public knowledge, then Prime Minister William McMahon claimed Whitlam had been played “as a fisherman plays a trout” by Zhou. As it turned out, McMahon had hooked himself. Whitlam was well on the way to becoming Australia’s 21st prime minister, if he was not destined for that outcome anyway.

Then, as now, China played an outsize role in Australian domestic politics.

Establishing diplomatic relations

This brings us to a document of great significance in the country’s diplomatic history.

On December 21 1972, envoys to Paris of Australia and China initialled the Joint Communique of the Australian Government and the Government of the People’s Republic of China Concerning the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between Australia and China.

The document’s title was portentous, its implications momentous.

After 23 years, from the moment Mao Zedong had, on October 1 1949, proclaimed the People’s Republic from the Gate of Heavenly Peace overlooking Tiananmen Square, Canberra ended the fiction the Kuomintang regime on Taiwan represented all of China.

The Labor government was elected on December 2. Whitlam and his deputy, Lance Barnard, governed as a duumvirate at first until a full ministry was sworn in. Formalising relations with China was high on the Whitlam-Barnard agenda.

What is striking, and sometimes overlooked, in the December 21 document is the extent to which the formula for dealing with the vexed Taiwan issue differed little from other such agreements with China entered into by comparable countries.

Canada had established full diplomatic relations on similar terms under the Pierre Trudeau Liberal government in 1970. The United Kingdom, Germany and Japan all did so in 1972. France and China had exchanged ambassadors in 1964.

In other words, Australia was aligned with its Western friends.

The key words in the December 21 communique as they relate to Taiwan are these:

The Australian Government recognises the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China, acknowledges the position of the Chinese Government that Taiwan is a province of the People’s Republic of China […].

In President Jimmy Carter’s announcement of diplomatic relations with China on December 15 1978, Washington settled on a simpler formula that amounted to the same thing in one important respect. Both the Australian and American communiques “acknowledge” China’s claim in relation to Taiwan.

The Government of the United States acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.

In Documents on Australian Foreign Policy: Australia and Recognition of the People’s Republic of China, 1949-1972, Australia had argued hard for the neutral word “acknowledges”, as opposed to Beijing’s demand that the definite “recognises” be used.

In the end Australia prevailed, after giving ground on its preferred option of “takes note” of China’s position on Taiwan.

In Chinese translation, “acknowledges” is less neutral than it is in English and is closer in meaning to “recognises”. Such are the vagaries of diplomatic-speak.

An interesting sidelight to the Whitlam visit to China in 1971 is that in 1954, as the new member for Werriwa, he had called for recognition of China in his first speech.

As Stephen Fitzgerald, who accompanied Whitlam on his initial foray to China and later became Australia’s first ambassador the China, put it in The Australian Financial Review:

He believed we must accept that China is a permanent and significant part of the international landscape, whatever its government or what we think of it […]

All these years later, that seems like a reasonable proposition.

An evolving relationship

Viewed from the vantage point of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, what is most striking is how far and fast the relationship has evolved since 1972.

This is to the point where history has found it difficult to keep up. No-one – not Whitlam, nor Mao, nor Zhou, and certainly not the rest of the world – could have foreseen what would happen in the meantime.

In 1972, China’s GDP stood at US$113.69 billion. Per capita, GDP was US$132. A vast segment of mainly rural-dwelling Chinese lived in poverty. China’s economy then was less the size of Italy’s, and a fraction that of the US.

Australian trade with China, mostly wheat, totalled about US$100 million. In other words, it was negligible.

A half century later, China’s economy is the world’s second largest. GDP in 2021 was US$17.7 trillion compared with the United States’ US$23 trillion. What is most remarkable, however, is the stratospheric growth in per capita GDP – from US$132 in 1972 to US$12,556 in 2021.

At the same time, Australian trade with China, including services, had leapt to A$188.9 billion in 2021 with imports of A$93.3 billion. Chinese students in Australia last year totalled 170,741, up 30% on the pandemic-affected year before.

Read more:
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Occasions such as the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations provide an opportunity to take stock of what has been achieved and to reflect on what lies ahead.

This includes the epic challenge of managing relations with a rising power that is squeezing Australia’s cornerstone security ally in our immediate region.

Based on an extraordinary last five decades economically, it would be foolish to bet against China’s continued rise and rise. If nothing else, that has been the China lesson of a remarkable past 50 years.

Tony Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 50 years after Gough Whitlam established diplomatic relations with China, what has changed? – https://theconversation.com/50-years-after-gough-whitlam-established-diplomatic-relations-with-china-what-has-changed-195705

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Ball, Professor of Community Health and Wellbeing, The University of Queensland

Christmas lunch is at your friend’s house this year, and they’ve asked you to bring a plate. Money is tight. So, you find yourself wondering, “What’s cheap, healthy but also looks impressive?”

While a tray of mangoes would certainly be a cheap, healthy and colourful contribution, you want to look as if you’ve put in a bit of effort.

If you’re struggling for inspiration, here are some tried and tested ideas.

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First, choose your ingredients

Check your pantry for inspiration or ingredients. Crackers, dried fruit or nuts are great ideas for a charcuterie board. You can use herbs and spices to add flavour to dishes, or you could use up packets of dried pasta to make a pasta salad. This is also a great way to clean out your pantry.

Focus on fruit and vegetables that are in season, so are cheaper and more readily available. Keep an eye out at your local fruit and veggie shop or market as it will usually have in-season fruit and vegetables in bulk quantities at reduced prices. Check out this seasonal food guide to help you plan your Christmas menu.

Ask around for deals by chatting to your local butcher, fishmonger or grocer and let them know your budget. They may suggest cheaper cuts of meat (such as, oyster, blades, rump caps). Try cooking corned beef or roast chicken in a slow cooker with lots of vegetables. Slow-cooked meals can be frozen and can come in handy for left-overs.

Lean into legumes. These are packed with fibre, protein, vitamins and minerals. They are also budget-friendly and a great way to add texture to salads. Tinned chickpeas, or cannellini, kidney, or butter beans are quick and easy additions that can make filling dishes go further. You could even turn tinned chickpeas into homemade hommus for a healthy and delicious side dish. Check out these healthy legume recipes.

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7 ways to keep food costs down this Christmas

1. Plan ahead

Plan your menu by asking how many people are coming and checking for any food preferences or dietary requirements. Check for items you already have at home, and make a shopping list for only what you need.

2. Use free recipes

Use free online recipe collections and e-books tailored for budget cooking that can help you design your Christmas menu to meet your budget. This one was created by a group of accredited practising dietitians and has healthy, budget friendly recipes and ideas. You could also try this budget friendly collection of Christmas recipes from taste.

3. Involve the family

Get together with other family members and make it a challenge to see who can make the cheapest, most delicious dish. Get the kids involved in fun activities, such as making a DIY gingerbread house or putting together mixed skewers for the barbecue.

4. Pool your resources

Larger quantities of a single dish will be cheaper than multiple different dishes (and easier to prepare).

5. Frozen is fine

Use frozen fruits and vegetables if you need to. These can have just as many vitamins and minerals as fresh, are often cheaper than fresh produce and last longer. Try using frozen berries to decorate the pavlova or add them to your favourite cake, muffin or pie.

6. Make your own drinks

You could make your own drinks, such as home-brewed iced tea. See if anyone in your family has a soda stream you can borrow to make sparkling mineral water. Add some freshly squeezed lemon or lime for extra flavour.

7. Reduce waste

Use your own crockery and re-use leftovers to reduce waste. After all, washing up is cheaper than buying plastic or paper plates and better for the environment. Remember to save any leftovers and re-use them. Leftover fresh vegetables could be used to make a hearty soup or chutney.

It doesn’t have to be perfect

Christmas comes and goes quickly. If your cooking ideas don’t work out, it’s not the end of the world. Choosing healthy foods on a budget is important all year around, so you may like to think about trying these tips throughout 2023.

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A festive feast of fish and fruit: the creation of the Australian Christmas dinner

Lauren Ball works for The University of Queensland. She receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, OzHarvest, VicHealth and Queensland Health. She is a Company Director of Dietitians Australia, Company Director of the Darling Downs & West Moreton Primary Health Network, Associate Director for the NNEdPro Global Institute for Food, Nutrition and Health and Honorary Member of the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners.

Amy Kirkegaard works for The University of Queensland. She is a member of Dietitians Australia.

Breanna Lepre works for the Mater Research Institute and the University of Queensland, and is a member of Dietitians Australia, and the NNEdPro Global Institute for Food, Nutrition and Health.

Emily Burch works for The University of Queensland. She is a member of Dietitians Australia.

– ref. Bring a plate! What to take to Christmas lunch that looks impressive (but won’t break the bank) – https://theconversation.com/bring-a-plate-what-to-take-to-christmas-lunch-that-looks-impressive-but-wont-break-the-bank-196565

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Bean, Research Fellow, Centre for Energy Data Innovation, The University of Queensland

Almost one in three Australian households have solar panels on their roofs. Most are motivated by rising electricity prices and environmental concerns.

Households are paid a so-called feed-in tariff for surplus energy they export to the grid. While customers would love to get paid for every bit of energy they’re able to export to the wider grid, operators have imposed a fixed or “static” limit on how much energy each household can export. This helps keep network voltages – or electric pressure – within a safe range.

The limits are needed because of uncertainty about the impacts on the network of fluctuations in households’ energy use and exports.

The network is connected to households via “low voltage” transformers that reduce the voltage to a level customers can use. The uncertainty arises because operators can see what’s happening at each transformer, but not what’s happening in each household.

We are working on a data-monitoring project to enable network operators to see household voltage and current data in real time. The idea is to enable them to manage network voltage fluctuations more precisely.

This could allow households to safely export more solar, depending on local network conditions. People would arguably receive more money while speeding up the transition to zero-emissions electricity by providing more renewable energy to the network.

Read more:
What’s a grid, anyway? Making sense of the complex beast that is Australia’s electricity network

Managing a tricky transition

The electricity network was originally set up for “bulk” generation from centralised power stations. The flow was in one direction from coal, gas or hydroelectric stations to energy users, including households.

However, economic forces and ageing systems mean many of these power stations are being rapidly retired. They’re being replaced, in part, by so-called “distributed energy resources”. These resources include rooftop solar, household or community batteries, and electric vehicles.

The household export limit to the network is usually around 5 kilowatts (kW), regardless of time of day or what households are generating or consuming. But, because of the falling cost of solar, 10kW residential systems (capable of producing twice the export limit) are increasingly common.

The Australian grid operator, AEMO, envisages distributed solar generation will make up 69GW of network capacity by 2050, compared to around 21GW now.

Integrating this energy generation is a big challenge for the energy market, transmission and distribution network operators.

The Australian Standard for household voltage has “allowable” and “preferred” operating zones around 230 volts. Keeping the voltage within these zones is better for energy efficiency and appliance life.

But when energy flow is “two-way” and unpredictable, both to and from houses, it becomes more challenging to keep the voltage within these zones. When lights flicker or appliances are damaged, that’s a sign the voltage is outside these safe limits.

Read more:
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How much household data do operators need?

If the operators could see household voltage and current data in real time, they might be able to set “dynamic” limits on households for the import and export of energy. That means limits are allowed to fluctuate depending on local network conditions, instead of being static. Households might then be able export more energy overall than they do now.

A long-term project of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, Project SHIELD, aims to answer a key question here. That is, how much data do operators need to allow this flexibility, while still safely co-ordinating energy flows to and from the grid?

The project involves The University of Queensland, network operators and the private sector. A project partner, Luceo Energy (an offshoot of a company that formerly employed one of the authors), working with Energex and Ergon, has rolled out 20,000 devices in households across Queensland that collect their energy data at one-minute intervals.

Smart meters installed in Victoria typically record energy data every 30 minutes. The new devices measure multiple electricity parameters, such as voltage and current, every minute.

This creates extraordinary amounts of data, which can be used in electricity studies and simulations. It also creates storage and analysis challenges.

The data collected are used to answer “what if?” questions. If an operator had perfect knowledge of conditions at every house attached to a transformer, they could create a safe dynamic limit. But would it still be safe if they could see the data for only 50%, or even 20%, of houses?

World-first simulation systems developed by Queensland company GridQube enable the operators to answer such questions. Data collected by the devices provide a key input.

Several representative locations and time periods have been chosen to see how network visibility can affect the envelope. The local network is simulated using a “power flow” with different network parameters, such as voltage. Then the key questions around safe limits can be answered.

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Benefits for both consumers and operators

Of course, this is only one level of the electricity network. We still need to build considerable amounts of high-voltage transmission to integrate increasing distributed energy resources. This will help provide a reliable and secure power supply.

The data generated by Project SHIELD will inform electricity modellers and data scientists about what is happening at the household level (both electricity usage and solar generation). It can improve forecasting and modelling as data on this scale have not been previously available.

As the roll-out of devices and gathering of data continue at speed, operators can start to relax the limits on household solar energy exports. Greater visibility of local networks offers clear benefits for both consumers and operators.

Richard Bean is a past employee of Redback Technologies (a company related to Luceo Energy) and is a participant in their employee share option plan.

Neil Horrocks works for the University of Queensland as Director of The Centre for Energy Data Innovation. The Centre is a collaborator on a project that the partners co-fund together with additional key funding from ARENA.

– ref. How closely monitoring households’ energy data can unleash their solar outputs and (possibly) make them more money – https://theconversation.com/how-closely-monitoring-households-energy-data-can-unleash-their-solar-outputs-and-possibly-make-them-more-money-196134

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James A. T. Lancaster, Lecturer in Studies in Western Religious Traditions, The University of Queensland

The Christmas tree is a modern invention. It is a largely secular symbol, having no basis in the Bible. There are many trees in the Bible, from the Tree of Knowledge and the Tree of Life in Genesis to the reference to Christ’s cross as a “tree” in Acts. But there is no Christmas tree.

The same is true of ancient, pagan sources. While it might be tempting to draw connections between the Christmas tree and pagan gods and festivals, such as the Egyptian god Ra and the Roman festival Saturnalia, the Christmas tree as we know it is completely unrelated.

The same goes for the legend of Saint Boniface and the Germans, which is just that: a legend. Almost all religions, ancient and modern, have used trees in their rituals, but not Christmas trees.

Even when we get to the 16th century, the Christmas tree we are familiar with is still 350 years in the future.

The story of Martin Luther, to whom the origins of the tree have been popularly attributed, is not supported by scholarship. As wholesome as it sounds, Luther was not overwhelmed by the beauty of a snow-covered tree while contemplating the infant Christ.

The truth is the Christmas tree is a relatively new tradition. It originated as a minor, localised tradition in the 17th century in a single place: the Alsatian capital of Strasbourg.

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A German tradition

German citizens of Strasbourg included a tree as part of a judgement tradition on Christmas day. Children would be judged by their parents. If good, bonbons would be left under a tree. If bad, there would be no bonbons – a hint of what was to come on Judgement Day.

The ritual spread to other parts of Germany in the 1770s. The German romantic novelist Goethe offered the first account of the Christmas tree to reach a wide audience in Sorrows of Young Werther (1774). But it wasn’t widely adopted in Germany until the 1830s, after the Christmas tree began to gain popularity in America.

The tradition came to Britain in the 1830s, introduced by German merchants in Manchester around the same time the courts of George III and William IV, themselves of German descent, introduced it to British aristocracy.

Queen Victoria and Prince Albert popularised the tradition in Britain, when Albert set up a Christmas tree at Windsor in 1840.

The scene was immortalised in The Illustrated London News in 1848, when an engraving was printed showing Victoria, Albert and their children around a candlelit tree with glass ornaments.

Avoiding the excess

The Christmas tree with gifts hidden under its boughs is derived from America, first introduced in Pennsylvania as early as 1812.

The Christmas tree was adopted into American culture as an attempt to remove the gross debauchery of the season.

Before the middle of the 19th century, Christmas was celebrated as a carnival, in which revellers – usually the poor and working classes – would parade around towns, knocking on the doors of the wealthy and demanding to be feasted or given drink. This practice, “wassailing”, evolved to involve drunkenness, vandalism and lewd acts.

The rowdiness of the Christmas season was to be mitigated by the indoor, child-friendly Christmas tree around which the middle-class family would gather.

Children would no longer be permitted outside to revel in the season. The outside would be brought inside: a tree cut down and brought indoors so Christmas could ensue in the safety and comfort of the home.

Savvy marketing

Adopted to mitigate the excesses of the season, American merchants and manufacturers popularised the Christmas tree. Presents were not placed under the tree until savvy manufacturers recognised the potential of the new indoor festivities.

The gross overindulgence of Christmases past – drinking, feasting and sex – made a comeback in a new, middle-class way with the giving of gifts.

The gift-wrapped Christmas present is an American invention of the 1840s that took the world by storm. Wrapped gifts began to be placed under trees by parents in response to the marketing strategies of book publishers.

American families learned about the new tradition not from German immigrants, but from these exact books: books in which the Christmas tree was depicted as a means to keep children happily indoors with what essentially amounts to a bribe. What better way to convince your children to stay inside, away from the revelry and out of trouble, than leave gifts under the tree?

Booksellers published collections of short stories and poems, such as Kriss Kringle’s Christmas Tree (1845), in which children received presents of books, but also swords, drums or dolls.

The genius of the book publishers was to present the new scheme of purchasing gifts for children as an old “folk tradition”. Parents were led to believe placing gifts under the Christmas tree was a ritual as old as the biblical Magi, with their gifts of gold, frankincense and myrrh.

Despite its name, the modern Christmas tree has little connection to an imagined Christian past.

From the 1830s when it became a widespread, middle-class ritual to bring a tree indoors and decorate it with lights, ornaments, angels and stars, the Christmas tree has been a largely secular symbol of the season, whose success remains tied to the forces of a consumerist economy.

Read more:
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James A. T. Lancaster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A story of legends, families and capitalism: a candid history of the Christmas tree – https://theconversation.com/a-story-of-legends-families-and-capitalism-a-candid-history-of-the-christmas-tree-196278

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katie Steele, Associate Professor in Philosophy, Australian National University

In 2017, the Scottish philosopher William MacAskill coined the name “longtermism” to describe the idea “that positively affecting the long-run future is a key moral priority of our time”. The label took off among like-minded philosophers and members of the “effective altruism” movement, which sets out to use evidence and reason to determine how individuals can best help the world.

This year, the notion has leapt from philosophical discussions to headlines. In August, MacAskill published a book on his ideas, accompanied by a barrage of media coverage and endorsements from the likes of Elon Musk. November saw more media attention as a company set up by Sam Bankman-Fried, a prominent financial backer of the movement, collapsed in spectacular fashion.

Critics say longtermism relies on making impossible predictions about the future, gets caught up in speculation about robot apocalypses and asteroid strikes, depends on wrongheaded moral views, and ultimately fails to give present needs the attention they deserve.

But it would be a mistake to simply dismiss longtermism. It raises thorny philosophical problems – and even if we disagree with some of the answers, we can’t ignore the questions.

Why all the fuss?

It’s hardly novel to note that modern society has a huge impact on the prospects of future generations. Environmentalists and peace activists have been making this point for a long time – and emphasising the importance of wielding our power responsibly.

In particular, “intergenerational justice” has become a familiar phrase, most often with reference to climate change.

Seen in this light, longtermism may look like simple common sense. So why the buzz and rapid uptake of this term? Does the novelty lie simply in bold speculation about the future of technology — such as biotechnology and artificial intelligence – and its implications for humanity’s future?

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For example, MacAskill acknowledges we are not doing enough about the threat of climate change, but points out other potential future sources of human misery or extinction that could be even worse. What about a tyrannical regime enabled by AI from which there is no escape? Or an engineered biological pathogen that wipes out the human species?

These are conceivable scenarios, but there is a real danger in getting carried away with sci-fi thrills. To the extent that longtermism chases headlines through rash predictions about unfamiliar future threats, the movement is wide open for criticism.

Moreover, the predictions that really matter are about whether and how we can change the probability of any given future threat. What sort of actions would best protect humankind?

Longtermism, like effective altruism more broadly, has been criticised for a bias towards philanthropic direct action – targeted, outcome-oriented projects – to save humanity from specific ills. It is quite plausible that less direct strategies, such as building solidarity and strengthening shared institutions, would be better ways to equip the world to respond to future challenges, however surprising they turn out to be.

Optimising the future

There are in any case interesting and probing insights to be found in longtermism. Its novelty arguably lies not in the way it might guide our particular choices, but in how it provokes us to reckon with the reasoning behind our choices.

A core principle of effective altruism is that, regardless of how large an effort we make towards promoting the “general good” — or benefiting others from an impartial point of view — we should try to optimise: we should try to do as much good as possible with our effort. By this test, most of us may be less altruistic than we thought.

For example, say you volunteer for a local charity supporting homeless people, and you think you are doing this for the “general good”. If you would better achieve that end, however, by joining a different campaign, you are either making a strategic mistake or else your motivations are more nuanced. For better or worse, perhaps you are less impartial, and more committed to special relationships with particular local people, than you thought.

In this context, impartiality means regarding all people’s wellbeing as equally worthy of promotion. Effective altruism was initially preoccupied with what this demands in the spatial sense: equal concern for people’s wellbeing wherever they are in the world.

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The cold logic of doing good

Longtermism extends this thinking to what impartiality demands in the temporal sense: equal concern for people’s wellbeing wherever they are in time. If we care about the wellbeing of unborn people in the distant future, we can’t outright dismiss potential far-off threats to humanity – especially since there may be truly staggering numbers of future people.

How should we think about future generations and risky ethical choices?

An explicit focus on the wellbeing of future people unearths difficult questions that tend to get glossed over in traditional discussions of altruism and intergenerational justice.

For instance: is a world history containing more lives of positive wellbeing, all else being equal, better? If the answer is yes, it clearly raises the stakes of preventing human extinction.

A number of philosophers insist the answer is no – more positive lives is not better. Some suggest that, once we realise this, we see that longtermism is overblown or else uninteresting.

But the implications of this moral stance are less simple and intuitive than its proponents might wish. And premature human extinction is not the only concern of longtermism.

Speculation about the future also provokes reflection on how an altruist should respond to uncertainty.

For instance, is doing something with a 1% chance of helping a trillion people in the future better than doing something that is certain to help a billion people today? (The “expectation value” of the number of people helped by the speculative action is 1% of a trillion, or 10 billion – so it might outweigh the billion people to be helped today.)

For many people, this may seem like gambling with people’s lives – and not a great idea. But what about gambles with more favourable odds, and which involve only contemporaneous people?

There are important philosophical questions here about apt risk aversion when lives are at stake. And, going back a step, there are philosophical questions about the authority of any prediction: how certain can we be about whether a possible catastrophe will eventuate, given various actions we might take?

Making philosophy everybody’s business

As we have seen, longtermist reasoning can lead to counter-intuitive places. Some critics respond by eschewing rational choice and “optimisation” altogether. But where would that leave us?

The wiser response is to reflect on the combination of moral and empirical assumptions underpinning how we see a given choice. And to consider how changes to these assumptions would change the optimal choice.

Philosophers are used to dealing in extreme hypothetical scenarios. Our reactions to these can illuminate commitments that are ordinarily obscured.

Read more:
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The longtermism movement makes this kind of philosophical reflection everybody’s business, by tabling extreme future threats as real possibilities.

But there remains a big jump between what is possible (and provokes clearer thinking) and what is in the end pertinent to our actual choices. Even whether we should further investigate any such jump is a complex, partly empirical question.

Humanity already faces many threats that we understand quite well, like climate change and massive loss of biodiversity. And, in responding to those threats, time is not on our side.

Katie Steele will be a visiting scholar at the Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford, in 2023.

– ref. Longtermism – why the million-year philosophy can’t be ignored – https://theconversation.com/longtermism-why-the-million-year-philosophy-cant-be-ignored-193538

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Australia’s relations with China will take another major step forward this week with Foreign Minister Penny Wong travelling to Beijing for the resumption of the bilateral Foreign and Strategic Dialogue, which has been on hold since 2018.

The latest breakthrough follows the meeting between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit.

Wong’s Wednesday talks will coincide with the 50th anniversary of the Whitlam government establishing diplomatic relations with China on December 22 1972 – an anniversary the Chinese government had been indicating it wanted to mark.

Australian exporters will hope the meeting paves the way to China easing the trade restrictions it has imposed on Australia. The improved relations may also be positive for detained Australians Cheng Lei and Yang Hengjun.

In a statement Albanese and Wong said: “In 1972, then Prime Minister Gough Whitlam took a bold decision, recognising the importance of engagement and cooperation between our two nations and peoples.

“In the decades since, China has grown to become one of the world’s largest economies and Australia’s largest trading partner.

“Trade between Australia and China, as well as strong people-to-people, cultural and business links have delivered significant benefits to both our countries.”

They said Wong was going to Beijing at the Chinese government’s invitation “to meet China’s State Councillor and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, and hold the 6th Australia–China Foreign and Strategic Dialogue”.

Albanese and Wong said they welcomed the opportunity to mark the anniversary of diplomatic relations.

“Australia seeks a stable relationship with China; we will cooperate where we can, disagree where we must and engage in the national interest.”

Albanese flagged this latest breakthrough on Friday’s podcast with The Conversation, although he did not specify the form it would take.

He said: “China is our major economic partner and I think in coming weeks you will see further measures and activities which indicate a much-improved relationship, which is in the interests of both of our countries, but importantly as well is in the interests of peace and security in the region.”

The thawing in relations, which began with overtures from China as soon as Labor was elected, came after the Chinese government had previously refused to even return the Morrison government’s phone calls.

China had been angered by the Coalition’s tough line on foreign interference and by its harsh rhetoric, for which then defence minister Peter Dutton was notable. Australia’s pressure for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 was a high-profile source of tension.

The Albanese government has been aware of the need for caution as it looks to stabilise the relationship, repeatedly making it clear Australia would not give any concession to get an improvement.

Shadow foreign minister Simon Birmingham said the Coalition welcomed Wong’s plans to visit.

“Engagement between governments is essential to advance areas of mutual interest and to manage differences,” he said, but added that “the ultimate test of any dialogue lies in the outcomes achieved”.

“Minister Wong’s visit will be judged on progress towards the removal of unwarranted tariffs and sanctions on Australian exports; achieving fair and transparent treatment of Australians currently detained in China; advancing regional security via respect for international law; and securing greater transparency on human rights issues of concern,” Birmingham said.

Australia should also continue to appeal for China to use its influence on Russia to end the immoral and illegal invasion of Ukraine.“

Birmingham said the Wong visit would be the first by an Australian minister since his final visit as trade minister in November 2019.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Wong to visit Beijing as ‘strategic dialogue’ restarts in new breakthrough in Australia-China relations – https://theconversation.com/wong-to-visit-beijing-as-strategic-dialogue-restarts-in-new-breakthrough-in-australia-china-relations-196799

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian A Wright, Associate Professor in Environmental Science, Western Sydney University

Australians are fortunate to have access to safe and healthy drinking water in our towns and cities, which is acknowledged as a basic human need globally. Sadly, the World Health Organization estimates about 2 billion people across the world are not so lucky.

Drinking water is important for our health, but water-borne diseases are a common cause of illness. Avoiding water-borne illnesses is particularly important for people with weakened immune systems, or for the very young or aged. Many people travelling around Australia over the summer holidays might wonder if it is still safe to drink the water when they are far from home.

This is a particularly important question this year. After months of very heavy rain across much of eastern Australia, flooding has contaminated many rivers and waterways.

Is taste an indication of water quality? And are they some places where you should avoid the tap water altogether?

Waterways and alerts

The flooded waterways are the water supply for many regional towns. Poor quality water has made their job of supplying clean and healthy water much more difficult.

In some cases, contamination from flood waters has entered town water treatment and supply systems. Even Sydney’s giant water supply reservoir, Warragamba Dam, has limited clean water available due to the inflow of poor quality water from a catchment still impacted from bushfires of two summers ago.

As a consequence of flooding, many regional water authorities in Victoria and New South Wales have declared “boil water alerts” at various times this year. Most have now been lifted.

At the time of writing, there are still four alerts active in NSW (Eugowra, Narranderra, Forbes and nearby small towns). The Victorian town of Echuca issued a boil water alert in October, since lifted, after stormwater entered its water system.

The Australian Drinking Water Guidelines set the standard for all states and territories.

If you are travelling to a town that has been affected by flooding, you should check with your accommodation provider to see if any boil water alerts are active.

You can also check with the local water authority. In many cases this is the local council. The NSW Health Ministry lists water alerts and incidents.

Read more:
Drinking water can be a dangerous cocktail for people in flood areas

Going bush?

But what if you are travelling or camping in a more remote area and are planning to drink from a local stream or an isolated water supply? You might be taking an unnecessary risk if you drink local water without precautions.

If you can’t be certain of the water quality, it is probably best to drink bottled or boiled water. Other water treatment options include chemical disinfection or filtration, but these can be quite complex and technical. Testing water yourself is also difficult and expensive.

If you boil water, it needs to be a “rolling boil” with big bubbles erupting on the surface. Let it bubble for or at least a minute and store cooled water in a closed container.

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Tasting notes

If you do drink water from an untreated water supply, your senses can give some clues to its safety and quality. Does the water appear clean? Does it smell OK? Is there any cloudiness, discolouration or anything floating or suspended in the water? These signs don’t always mean water is unsafe to drink, but can be an indicator of poor water quality.

That said, water tastes different in different locations around Australia and it might not taste like what you’re used to. Every year the Australian water industry holds a competition to judge Australia’s best-tasting water. This year Casino, in northern NSW took the top prize.

A common complaint from travellers is the smell of chlorine (or perhaps more accurately chloramines) in town water. These are a family of chlorine compounds added in low doses to water to kill any disease causing microorganisms in water supply systems. These compounds can be reduced to taste by boiling or by using a commercial water filter.

Read more:
It’s natural to want to feed wildlife after disasters. But it may not help

And don’t swim in it either

Flooding continues to affect many rivers and communities. Flood waters are working their way down river systems. South Australia is currently affected by flooding of the Murray River, with SES warning of a bigger flood peak later in December.

Even if a flooded river looks inviting for a cooling swim this summer, don’t swim in it. Apart from the drowning risk, or entanglement with debris, medical advice is to avoid contact with flood waters as they are highly contaminated with disease-causing organisms, including from sewerage overflows.

Even if you’re not drinking it, you don’t want to accidentally ingest this dangerous cocktail.

Ian Wright has received funding from industry, as well as Commonwealth, NSW and local Government. He formerly worked in the water industry for Sydney Water Corporation.

Jason Reynolds receives funding from Australian Research Council Research Hub Nutrients in a Circular Economy (NiCE) and Sydney Water.

– ref. Travelling around Australia this summer? Here’s how to know if the water is safe to drink – https://theconversation.com/travelling-around-australia-this-summer-heres-how-to-know-if-the-water-is-safe-to-drink-196294

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Poll Bludger reported on two Queensland polls on December 12. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted December 1-8 from a sample of 1,000, had a 50-50 tie, unchanged since June. Primary votes were 38% LNP (steady), 34% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one), 11% One Nation (up one) and 4% for all Others (steady).

Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk had a 41% disapproval rating (up two) and a 40% approval (down five), for a net approval of -1, down seven points. LNP leader David Crisafilli had a 31-27 approval rating (31-23 in June). Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier slipped to 39-28 from 41-28 in June.

Analyst Kevin Bonham strongly criticised The Courier Mail for the anti-Labor slant they put on this poll.

The first Resolve Queensland state poll, conducted from August to December from a sample of 924 for The Brisbane Times, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote, the LNP 35%, the Greens 11%, One Nation 6%, independents 7% and others 4%.

Resolve does not give two party estimates until close to elections, but Bonham estimated this poll would be 53-47 to Labor. This Queensland poll was presumably conducted with the five federal Resolve polls from August to December.

Asked whether they held positive, neutral or negative views of the leaders or were unfamiliar with them, Palaszczuk had a 39-31 positive rating and Crisafulli a 23-15 positive rating. Palaszczuk led as preferred premier by 42-30.

The next Queensland election is not until October 2024. Currently Labor appears to be just ahead, and Bonham thinks Labor would be likely to hold onto enough seats to form government with a 50-50 two party tie.

By the 2024 election, Labor will have held power since the January 2015 election, so there’s time for the polling to worsen for Labor. But Victorian Labor just retained government after eight years in power with 56 of the 88 lower house seats, up one since the 2018 election.

Read more:
Final Victorian election results: how would upper house look using the Senate system?

NSW Resolve poll on cashless gaming card

The New South Wales state election is in March 2023. We have been getting NSW voting intentions after every second federal Resolve poll. The last voting intentions was in early November, and there’s only been one federal Resolve poll since. I don’t expect NSW voting intentions until after the next federal Resolve poll.

A NSW Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, presumably conducted with just the federal December Resolve poll, had voters supporting a mandatory cashless gaming card by 62-16. However, the question wording included arguments in favour of the cashless gaming card, but none against.

If the cashless gaming card were to go ahead, 32% wanted it introduced immediately for all gamblers, 24% to have a voluntary trial of the card statewide and 19% a mandatory trial in specific areas.

By 47-28, voters thought pubs and clubs have been poor instead of good on problem gambling. By 30-26, voters trusted Labor and Chris Minns over the Liberals and Dominic Perrottet to get the right outcome on gambling reforms.

Federal polls: Essential and Morgan

In last week’s federal Essential poll, Labor led by 51-44 on Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided (51-43 in late November). Primary votes were 35% Labor (up two), 30% Coalition (down one), 13% Greens (steady), 17% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (down one). Respondent allocated preferences were friendly for the Coalition.

In other findings from this poll of 1,042 respondents conducted in the days before December 13, Anthony Albanese’s ratings were unchanged since November at 60-27 approval (net +33). An Indigenous Voice to parliament was supported by a 63-37 margin (65-35 in August).

Probably due to the change in federal government, 2022 was considered a good year for trade unions over a bad year by a net +13, up from -13 in 2021. Small business was up from -45 to -25 in 2022, after the end of COVID lockdowns. The Australian economy had a net -27 rating in 2022, down one point on 2021.

Thinking about 2023, 40% thought it would be better for Australia than 2022, 25% no difference and 24% worse. On economic indicators, 78-80% expected the cost of living, energy prices and interest rates to be up in the year ahead, while 43% expected unemployment to be up, 30% about the same and 18% down.

A Morgan federal poll, conducted December 5-11, gave Labor a 56.5-53.5 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Morgan’s polls have been better for the Coalition than others since the May election. This is Labor’s highest two party vote in Morgan polls since the election.

US Senator Kyrsten Sinema switches from Democrat to independent

Shortly after United States Democrats won the December 6 Georgia Senate runoff election to seal a 51-49 federal Senate majority, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema defected from the Democrats to become an independent.

I have not seen any polls of Arizona conducted since Sinema defected, but Slate reported on a September poll that showed Sinema was unpopular with all Arizona demographics sampled. Sinema was at net -17 overall, net -20 with Democrats and net -18 with Republicans. She performed better with independent voters, but was still at net -10 with them.

Sinema is up for re-election in November 2024. Democrats are likely to run their own candidate against Sinema and a Republican. I do not know which side she will take most votes from, but it’s very unlikely Sinema will win given her unpopularity across the board.

Republicans’ worse than expected performance at the US midterm elections has resulted in some polls of the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 showing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis now leading former president Donald Trump, although Trump still leads in others.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor just ahead in two Queensland polls and retains large federal poll lead – https://theconversation.com/labor-just-ahead-in-two-queensland-polls-and-retains-large-federal-poll-lead-196478

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Ratuva, Director, Macmillan Brown Centre for Pacific Studies, University of Canterbury

When the final election results were announced around 4pm on Sunday, many Fijians, at home and around the world, breathed a collective sigh of relief: the government of coup-maker Frank Bainimarama looked like it had finally been defeated at the ballot box.

Could it be that the militarised political culture, pervasive in Fiji since the 1987 coups, was finally being effectively challenged – peacefully?

Bainimarama’s FijiFirst Party (FFP) collected 42.55% of votes, well short of the majority needed to return to power. The closest rival, the People’s Alliance Party (PAP), led by 1987 coup leader Sitiveni Rabuka, won 35.82%, followed by the National Federation Party (NFP) on 8.89% and the Social Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA) with 5.14% of the votes.

Total voter turnout was 68.28%, less than the 71.92% at the 2018 election. With the Unity Fiji and Fiji Labour parties not reaching the required 5% threshold to gain seats under Fiji’s proportional representation system, the maths now points to a dead heat – and some anxious coalition horsetrading.

The vote shares mean FFP will have 26 seats in the new 55-seat parliament, the PAP 21, NFP 5 and SODELPA 3. The PAP and NFP have already signed a pre-election agreement to form a coalition, meaning they are tied with the FFP on 26 seats.

Led by Viliame Gavoka, SODELPA has suddenly been thrust into the role of kingmaker. Given its fraught history with both FFP and PAP, the stage is set for some hard bargaining on all sides.

Family ties

The PAP, in fact, is a breakaway faction of SODELPA. The divorce was bitter and littered with bruised souls. A faction within SODELPA wanted nothing to do with Rabuka and the PAP.

On the other hand, SODELPA’s relationship with FijiFirst has been equally strained. The founding leader of SODELPA, the late prime minister Laiseni Qarase, was deposed, arrested and jailed following Bainimarama’s 2006 coup.

Read more:
As Fiji prepares to vote, democracy could already be the loser

But there is a personal link between SODELPA and the FFP, whose secretary (as well as attorney-general and minister for the economy in the previous government) is Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum. An Indo-Fijian Muslim, Sayed-Khaiyum is the son-in-law of SODELPA leader Viliame Gavoka, an indigenous Fijian (Taukei).

While this multi-racial connection may have its political advantages, the reality is that many in SODELPA vehemently oppose Sayed-Khaiyum for what they view as his imposing and arrogant style.

Return of Rabuka

There are early indications that SODELPA may go with the PAP and NFP partnership to form a grand coalition. Ideologically and politically, SODELPA and PAP share the same basic vision and strategies regarding indigenous Fijian issues – after all, they were once the same party.

Gavoka and Rabuka are similar in various ways. They both have ethno-nationalist tendencies and embrace fundamentalist evangelical Christian doctrines. Gavoka has advocated setting up a Fijian embassy in Jerusalem, and Rabuka has been known as an admirer of Israel since he was commander of Fijian peacekeepers in the Middle East in the 1980s.

Read more:
Fiji’s other crisis: away from the COVID emergency, political dissent can still get you arrested

Furthermore, SODELPA has been under pressure from its international and local branches (which fund the party) not to entertain any FFP coalition proposals. The message coming through from supporters is that their votes for SODELPA were also votes against FFP.

There have also been fears that an alliance between SODELPA and FFP could provoke old grievances and escalate into wider political instability.

Lastly, “non-negotiables” laid down by SODELPA include enacting policies that promote indigenous Fijian interests (including the reinstatement of the Great Council of Chiefs (which Bainimarama abolished), forgiving scholarship debt and setting up a Fiji embassy in Jerusalem. These are similar to the PAP policies in the party manifesto but quite different from the FFP positions.

Culture change

If the election sees FijiFirst finally leave power, there is the potential for democratic progress. One of the major challenges for an incoming new government will be reform of the country’s civil service, judiciary, education and health systems, and the economy in general.

Over the years, Fiji society has been configured in ways that suit the narrow ideological interests and centralised control of the FFP. Security, public order and media laws have been used to undermine democratic debate, free expression and public engagement.

Democratising the institutions of state and making them more relevant will be a huge task. It will require significant financial, political and intellectual resources. It also has ramifications in the wider Pacific region, given Fiji’s role as an economic, communications and political hub.

Read more:
Two past coup leaders face off in Fiji election as Australia sharpens its focus on Pacific

Many Pacific leaders, including in Australia and New Zealand, have been unhappy with Fiji under the Bainimarama-Kaiyum axis. Actions such as the government’s refusal to release more than FJ$80 million in funding for the University of the South Pacific – creating a major crisis at the regional institution – only reinforce such perceptions.

This time, Rabuka and Bainimarama – both former military leaders and coup makers – have used the democratic electoral system rather than guns and force to try to win to power. But behind them sits a culture of command and control that will be difficult to dislodge.

This is subtly woven into various aspects of the 2013 Constitution, such as the role of the military as the nation’s constitutional security watchdog. But there is growing confidence that the chances of another military coup following this election are virtually nil.

Fiji’s civil service and operations of state have incorporated micromanagement, authoritarianism and coercion as part of the institutional culture. The test will be to ensure that a coalition of parties can rule together in a way that expands political participation and enhances democracy.

Steven Ratuva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A knife-edge election in Fiji sees power shift – and a chance to bring back real democracy – https://theconversation.com/a-knife-edge-election-in-fiji-sees-power-shift-and-a-chance-to-bring-back-real-democracy-196465

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National University

Two summers did for Scott Morrison. The first was that of 2019-20, with its fire, smoke and ash. The second occurred two years later when, having earlier muddled the vaccine program, the federal government failed to secure sufficient access to rapid antigen test (RAT) kits. The removal from the country early in 2022 of an unvaccinated Novak Djokovic ahead of the Australian Open tennis tournament provided some diversionary drama but contributed to the overall impression of pandemic mismanagement already etched on public opinion.

2022 was a year of three elections. The first seems almost forgotten outside South Australia, but the March 19 election there mattered beyond its borders, because it saw the first pandemic-era government ejected from office when Peter Malinauskas defeated the Liberal government of Steven Marshall on a two-party preferred swing of more than 6.5%.

There were also changes of leadership, although not of government, in Tasmania and the Northern Territory. All this looked like a thinning of the ranks of those leaders who had steered it through the crisis, even a changing of the guard.

Would Morrison be next? Not if he could help it, but public reaction to his ukulele performance on 60 Minutes suggested that he would not be able simply to reprise the “daggy dad” routine that worked a treat at the 2019 election. This time the public wasn’t buying.

A stench of decay clung to his government. It had to endure a revolt from members of its own ranks over the issue of the rights of transgender children and teachers in connection with the effort to legislate against religious discrimination. It lacked credibility on climate change policy, adopting a 2050 net zero emissions target too late and without a satisfactory pathway. It flaunted its refusal to legislate a workable anti-corruption commission. Relations with China were in a dreadful state.

As the Omicron variant of COVID-19 spread through the community, Australia’s infection rates climbed dramatically, although these now received less intense media publicity than before. Undaunted, thousands of freedom protesters descended on Canberra in February.

The federal election campaign was, for the major parties, an uninspiring affair and for the mainstream media, a nadir that should have prompted more soul-searching than it did. Morrison said he was a bulldozer, assured us he could change, and then bulldozed an eight-year-old boy during a soccer match. Albanese spoke often of his personal story in the campaign as the son of an invalid pensioner who grew up in public housing.

The election of May 21 saw Labor return to office with a narrow majority and a primary vote in the low 30s, the lowest for a winning party since the adoption of the preferential system in 1918.

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Did Australia just make a move to the left?

But the scenario for the Coalition was far worse. Not only had it lost seats to Labor and the Greens, community independents or “teals” made massive incursions into its old metropolitan heartland. Even Robert Menzies’ old seat of Kooyong went, with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg losing to paediatric neurologist Monique Ryan. The successful teal candidates were all professional women, reflecting a wider dissatisfaction among women with the government and Morrison personally.

The story of the campaign seemed to be a two-party system groaning under the strain of the challenges from minor parties and independents who had taken about a third of the primary vote in the House of Representatives. The Greens expanded their numbers, winning three new seats in Brisbane. An independent with strong environmental credentials, former rugby international David Pocock, even managed to wrest a Canberra Senate seat from the Liberals, the first time the major parties had failed to share the representation between them.

Once the dust settled, attention turned away from the banalities of the campaign and the novelties of results to the new Labor government led by Anthony Albanese. He and ministers such as Penny Wong, who took on foreign affairs, sought to improve relations with China and remind Pacific nations that Australia was “family”.

By the end of the year, there was legislation to create an anti-corruption commission, and to strengthen the ability of workers to push for higher wages after years of stagnation. With war raging in Ukraine and energy prices soaring, the new government was dogged by inflation, but it has now legislated to cap gas prices and reached an agreement with the states for controls on the price of coal. Interest rate increases from a Reserve Bank whose 30-year shine was wearing off threatened the well-being of people whose cost of living was rising faster than many, after decades of low inflation, had ever known.

The government came under pressure to abandon its predecessor’s commitment – supported by Labor – to a third round of income tax cuts that would deliver a windfall to high-income earners.

But amid such competing pressures, most commentators thought Labor’s first six months had been among the more successful for a new federal government. Its image of orderliness was helped by the contrast produced by the revelation that Morrison had secretly taken on five ministries during the pandemic. Meanwhile, new Opposition Leader Peter Dutton sought to rebuild a party that now leaned even further to the right as a result of losses by Liberal moderates in metropolitan seats.

It was the year’s third election, held on November 26, that caused the most surprise. It was not so much the result, for most polling indicated that Labor, under Daniel Andrews, would win the Victorian election. It was the scale of Labor’s victory that shocked. Victoria had endured prolonged and frequent lockdowns, fierce protests against them, and much else that supposedly indicated a faltering government and premier falling out of favour.

Yet Labor, while losing votes in some places, increased its tally of lower-house seats by one. It was another epic media fail, with wishful thinking, especially in the Murdoch press, generating hopelessly inaccurate punditry.

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The Liberal Party is in a dire state across Australia right now. That should worry us all

The Liberals in Victoria are in a deep malaise, contributing to a bleak national picture for the Coalition parties. The question of whether the Australian centre right, after its unwise flirtations with right-wing populism, can now begin to reconnect with mainstream constituencies, policies and ideas remains one of the central questions in Australian politics.

Frank Bongiorno ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. ‘He played his ukulele as the ship went down’: Frank Bongiorno on the political year that was – https://theconversation.com/he-played-his-ukulele-as-the-ship-went-down-frank-bongiorno-on-the-political-year-that-was-194063

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anita Foerster, Associate Professor, Monash University

Australian company directors have long had legal obligations to identify, disclose and manage material financial risks to the company. Where risks result from climate change, or from measures to mitigate climate change, they have an obligation to address and report these.

But until now there have been no clear rules on how to report.

A new proposal from Treasurer Jim Chalmers on which the government wants comment by February 17 will require a standardised internationally‑aligned form of disclosure of climate‑related risks and opportunities, phased in from 2024-25.

It follows on the heels of the government’s legislated climate targets and proposals to require big emitters to reduce emissions year by year under the previously-leglislated “safeguard mechanism”.

Voluntary best-practice, international standards for climate reporting have been available for some time, developed by the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures.

Commitments have been hard to compare

Around three-quarters of large Australian companies are already using these standards.

An increasing number have also set long-term net-zero emissions targets.

But much of the reporting focuses on the easier aspects of the TCFD standards, which deal with governance and identifying risks, rather than setting out robust transition strategies with clear and measurable decarbonisation pathways aligned to the international Paris accord.

The companies that have adopted climate targets have been using a variety of definitions. Some refer to absolute emissions, some to reducing emissions intensity, and some only to certain business lines.

Very few submit their targets for external verification by bodies such as the Science-based Target Setting Initiative, an international accreditation platform for Paris-aligned targets.

Greenwashing concerns

There are also valid concerns about greenwashing, particularly in relation to net-zero pledges and claims of Paris alignment.

Corporate regulators are increasingly alert to greenwashing risks and some companies are facing litigation over the veracity of their claims.

An ongoing case in the Federal Court against oil and gas company Santos alleges it has been misleading and deceptive in disclosing a net-zero target, while continuing to pursue new high-emitting projects and relying on contentious offset strategies and immature carbon capture and storage technologies.

Completing the jigsaw

The proposed reforms offer a real chance to address these problems.

They would support companies to set out transition strategies, including decarbonisation targets, and to report on their progress using standardised metrics. They would also require clearer reporting of corporate emissions, including, where relevant, the Scope 3 emissions that companies are associated with.

The consultation paper also proposes options to strengthen and streamline the standard-setting, monitoring, and oversight functions of Australian regulators.

Sitting alongside the government’s legislated climate targets and the strengthened safeguard mechanism, the new reporting standards will help line up the puzzle pieces to drive corporate decarbonisation in Australia.

À lire aussi :
Half of Australia’s biggest companies have net-zero emissions plans, but climate action may come too late

Anita Foerster ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Clearer rules on reporting companies’ climate risks could soon put us on a path to decarbonising corporate Australia – https://theconversation.com/clearer-rules-on-reporting-companies-climate-risks-could-soon-put-us-on-a-path-to-decarbonising-corporate-australia-196381

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ausma Bernot, PhD Candidate, School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University

A group of researchers studied 15 months of human mobility movement data taken from 1.5 million people and concluded that just four points in space and time were sufficient to identify 95% of them, even when the data weren’t of excellent quality.

That was back in 2013.

Nearly ten years on, surveillance technologies permeate all aspects of our lives. They collect swathes of data from us in various forms, and often without us knowing.

I’m a surveillance researcher with a focus on technology governance. Here’s my round-up of widespread surveillance systems I think everyone should know about.

CCTV and open-access cameras

Although China has more than 50% of all surveillance cameras installed in the world (about 34 cameras per 1,000 people), Australian cities are catching up. In 2021, Sydney had 4.67 cameras per 1,000 people and Melbourne had 2.13.

While CCTV cameras can be used for legitimate purposes, such as promoting safety in cities and assisting police with criminal investigations, their use also poses serious concerns.

In 2021, New South Wales police were suspected of having used CCTV footage paired with facial recognition to find people attending anti-lockdown protests. When questioned, they didn’t confirm or deny if they had (or if they would in the future).

In August 2022, the United Nations confirmed CCTV is being used to carry out “serious human rights violations” against Uyghur and other predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities in the Xinjiang region of Northwest China.

The CCTV cameras in China don’t just record real-time footage. Many are equipped with facial recognition to keep tabs on the movements of minorities. And some have reportedly been trialled to detect emotions.

The US also has a long history of using CCTV cameras to support racist policing practices. In 2021, Amnesty International reported areas with a higher proportion of non-white residents had more CCTV cameras.

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Another issue with CCTV is security. Many of these cameras are open-access, which means they don’t have password protection and can often be easily accessed online. So I could spend all day watching a livestream of someone’s porch, as long as there was an open camera nearby.

Surveillance artist Dries Depoorter’s recent project The Follower aptly showcases the vulnerabilities of open cameras. By coupling open camera footage with AI and Instagram photos, Depoorter was able to match people’s photos with the footage of where and when they were taken.

There was pushback, with one of the identified people saying:

It’s a crime to use the image of a person without permission.

Whether or not it is illegal will depend on the specific circumstances and where you live. Either way, the issue here is that Depoorter was able to do this in the first place.

IoT devices

An IoT (“Internet of Things”) device is any device that connects to a wireless network to function – so think smart home devices such as Amazon Echo or Google Dot, a baby monitor, or even smart traffic lights.

It’s estimated global spending on IoT devices will have reached US$1.2 trillion by some point this year. Around 18 billion connected devices form the IoT network. Like unsecured CCTV cameras, IoT devices are easy to hack into if they use default passwords or passwords that have been leaked.

In some examples, hackers have hijacked baby monitor cameras to stalk breastfeeding mums, threaten parents that their baby was being kidnapped, and say creepy things like “I love you” to children.

Beyond hacking, businesses can also use data collected through IoT devices to further target customers with products and services.

Privacy experts raised the alarm in September over Amazon’s merger agreement with robot vacuum company iRobot. A letter to the US Federal Trade Commission signed by 26 civil rights and privacy advocacy groups said:

Linking iRobot devices to the already intrusive Amazon home system incentivizes more data collection from more connected home devices, potentially including private details about our habits and our health that would endanger human rights and safety.

IoT-collected data can also change hands with third parties through data partnerships (which are very common), and this too without customers’ explicit consent.

Read more:
How the shady world of the data industry strips away our freedoms

Big tech and big data

In 2017, the value of big data exceeded that of oil. Private companies have driven the majority of that growth.

For tech platforms, the expansive collection of users’ personal information is business as usual, literally, because more data mean more precise analytics, more effective targeted ads and more revenue.

This logic of profit-making through targeted advertising has been dubbed “surveillance capitalism”. As the old saying goes, if you’re not paying for it, then you’re the product.

Meta (which owns both Facebook and Instagram) generated almost US$23 billion in advertising revenue in the third quarter of this year.

The vast machinery behind this is illustrated well in the 2021 documentary The Social Dilemma, even if in a dramatised way. It showed us how social media platforms rely on our psychological weaknesses to keep us online for as long as possible, measuring our actions down to the seconds we spend hovering over an ad.

Loyalty programs

Although many people don’t realise it, loyalty programs are one of the biggest personal data collection gimmicks out there.

In a particularly intrusive example, in 2012 one US retailer sent a teenage girl a catalogue dotted with pictures of smiling infants and nursery furniture. The girl’s angered father went to confront managers at the local store, and learned that predictive analytics knew more about his daughter than he did.

It’s estimated 88% of Australian consumers over age 16 are members of a loyalty program. These schemes build your consumer profile to sell you more stuff. Some might even charge you sneaky fees and lure you in with future perks to sell you at steep prices.

As technology journalist Ros Page notes:

[T]he data you hand over at the checkout can be shared and sold to businesses you’ve never dealt with.

As a cheeky sidestep, you could find a buddy to swap your loyalty cards with. Predictive analytics is only strong when it can recognise behavioural patterns. When the patterns are disrupted, the data turn into noise.

Read more:
Don’t be phish food! Tips to avoid sharing your personal information online

Ausma Bernot does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Not Big Brother, but close: a surveillance expert explains some of the ways we’re all being watched, all the time – https://theconversation.com/not-big-brother-but-close-a-surveillance-expert-explains-some-of-the-ways-were-all-being-watched-all-the-time-194917

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Oliver Baumann, Assistant Professor, School of Psychology, Bond University

You’ve driven home from work along the same route for the past five years. But lately, you’ve been stopping at the same intersection, struggling to remember if you need to turn left or right.

Many occasions in everyday life can make us question whether lapses in memory are normal, a sign of cognitive decline, or even the beginning of dementia.

Our first instinct might be that it’s due to deterioration in our brains. And it’s true that like the rest of our body, our brain cells shrink when we get older. They also maintain fewer connections with other neurons and store less of the chemicals needed for sending messages to other neurons.

But not all memory lapses are due to age-related changes to our neurons. In many cases, the influencing factors are more trivial, including being tired, anxious, or distracted.

Read more:
It’s not just doorways that make us forget what we came for in the next room

Some forgetfulness is normal

Our memory system is constructed in a way that some degree of forgetting is normal. This is not a flaw, but a feature. Maintaining memories is not only a drain on our metabolism, but too much unnecessary information can slow down or hamper retrieving specific memories.

Unfortunately, it’s not always up to us to decide what’s important and should be remembered. Our brain does that for us. In general, our brain prefers social information (the latest gossip), but easily discards abstract information (such as numbers).

Memory loss becomes a problem when it starts to affect your typical day-to-day living. It’s not a huge issue if you can’t remember to turn right or left. However, forgetting why you are behind the wheel, where you are meant to be going or even how to drive are not normal. These are signs something may not be right and should be investigated further.

Then there’s mild cognitive impairment

The road between ageing-associated memory loss and the more concerning memory loss is coined as mild cognitive impairment. The degree of impairment can remain stable, improve, or worsen.

However, it indicates an increase risk (around three to five times) of future neurogenerative disease such as dementia. Every year, around 10-15% of people with mild cognitive impairment will develop dementia.

Read more:
Are ‘core memories’ real? The science behind 5 common myths

For people with mild cognitive impairment, the ability to undertake usual activities becomes gradually and more significantly impacted over time. Besides memory loss, it can be accompanied by other problems with language, thinking and decision-making skills.

A mild cognitive impairment diagnosis can be a double-edged sword. It affirms older people’s concerns their memory loss is abnormal. It also raises concerns it will develop into dementia. But it can also lead to the exploration of potential treatment and planning for the future.

Losing your way can be an early marker

Impairment in navigation is thought to be an early marker for Alzheimer’s disease, the most common type of dementia. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies have shown the areas that crucially underpin memories for our spatial environment are the first to be affected by this degenerative disease.

So, a noticeable increase in occasions of getting lost could be a warning sign of more pronounced and widespread difficulties in the future.

Given the predictive link between declines in the ability to find your way and dementia, there is an incentive to develop and use standardised tests to detect deficits as early as possible.

Currently, the scientific literature describes varying approaches, ranging from pen-and-paper tests and virtual reality, to real-life navigation, but there is no gold standard yet.

A specific challenge is to develop a test that is accurate, cost-effective and easy to administer during a busy clinic day.

We have developed a five-minute test that used scene memory as a proxy for way-finding ability. We ask participants to remember pictures of houses and subsequently test their ability to differentiate between the pictures they have learned and a set of new images of houses.

We found the test works well in predicting natural variations in way-finding ability in healthy young people, but are currently still evaluating the effectiveness of the test in older people.

Get help when your memory lapses are consistent

While everyday memory lapses are not something we should unduly worry about, it is prudent to seek professional health care advice, such as from your GP, when those impairments become more marked and consistent.

While there is currently still no cure for Alzheimer’s, early detection will allow you to plan for the future and for more targeted management of the disorder.

Read more:
Is there really a benefit from getting an early dementia diagnosis?

Oliver Baumann is an Assistant Professor of Psychology at Bond University.

Dr. Cindy Jones (cjones@bond.edu.au) is an Associate Professor of Behavioural Sciences at Bond University, Faculty of Health Sciences & Medicine (Medical Program) and an Adjunct Research Fellow at Menzies Health Institute, Queensland.

– ref. How much memory loss is normal with ageing? – https://theconversation.com/how-much-memory-loss-is-normal-with-ageing-193217

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Narelle Lemon, Professor in Education, Swinburne University of Technology

Many year 12 students who are receiving their exam results at the moment will go straight to further study and training next year. But others may be planning or dreaming about a break.

As a professor of education with a focus on positive psychology, I think of a gap year as a dynamic transition time that allows you to be your own person. It is a chance to reconnect to who you are and what you want in life. It is so much more than a break!

It can mean working, volunteering, doing a program with the Australian Defence Force or travelling.

Despite what some assume, it is not a year of doing nothing, or slacking off. Nor is it an indication you won’t return to further study. Here are some things to consider if you are thinking about a gap year.

Read more:
‘They don’t expect a lot of me, they just want me to go to uni’: first-in-family students show how we need a broader definition of ‘success’ in year 12

Gap years in Australia

Although a gap can be taken at any time, the first real opportunity for most is at the end of high school.

Each year, about one in seven Australian year 12 students who then do a bachelors degree take a gap year (although the proportion fell from 16% in 2009 to 11% in 2016).

For some students, this is a practical reality. Students from regional and remote areas are more likely than city students to take a gap year. And students from less advantaged areas are more likely to do paid work during this time.

Every university will have a support team to advise you on how to defer for a year once you are accepted, and can let you know when you need to make a decision. You can also change your course preferences if you want to.

It can be a form of self-care

Taking a gap year can be dedicated time to explore who you are as a person, build new connections and relationships, and be curious. You can gain confidence, perspective, and open-mindedness.

From a self-care perspective, it is important to tune into how you are feeling about yourself and moving ahead with future studies now or not.

Finishing high school and the stress of exams is draining at the best of times. Studying during the pandemic – away from teachers and friends and with so many disruptions and uncertainties – has been exhausting.

Read more:
5 reasons students should consider taking a gap year now

How to set up a gap year

If you take a gap year, this is likely to be a precious and unusual time in your life. The pandemic has also changed priorities for some people. So what is it that you want to change, interrupt or do differently? Ask yourself honestly:

• what do I want?
• what’s working in my life?
• what have I learned from things that haven’t been working?
• what will the year look like?
• what will success look and feel like at the end?

According to US education researcher Joseph O’Shea, you need to pay attention to the organisation, resourcing and quality of your gap year. Think about these questions:

• how much money will I need?
• how will I support myself?
• has someone else done the same type of gap year activity before? What did they learn that can help?
• who can be a mentor for me?

A note for parents

And for parents and carers who may be hesitant to support a gap year, it does not mean your child will turn their back on study forever. Figures show students taking a gap year are just as likely to complete their degree within six years than students who do not.

As a university lecturer I have also taught many students who have taken a gap year. For me, what stands out with every single one of them is that on return they are super focused, ask thought-provoking questions in class and know exactly what their purpose is.

Research also suggests a gap year has a positive impact on academic performance once you return to university, with the greatest impact on those who performed less well at school. It has also shown to increase students’ motivation to study when they come back.

So, tune into what you are curious about and how it will help you become the best person you want to be. Don’t compare yourself with others. There are so many pathways to finding meaning and purpose in life – a gap year might be exactly what you need.

Read more:
Disappointed by your year 12 result? A university expert and a clinical psychologist share advice on what to do next

Narelle Lemon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Thinking about a gap year? Here are some questions to ask yourself (and a note for anxious parents) – https://theconversation.com/thinking-about-a-gap-year-here-are-some-questions-to-ask-yourself-and-a-note-for-anxious-parents-196283

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lorinda Cramer, Research Fellow, Australian Catholic University

Woollen swimwear, popular a century ago, might soon make a splash on Australian beaches again.

In the 19th century, when natural fibres were the only option, beach-goers donned costumes made of wool or cotton. Swimsuits worn at the water’s edge or in the crashing waves transformed across the 20th century from natural fibres to sleek, high-performance synthetics.

But with concern mounting over microplastics and the search for sustainable options, the woollen swimsuits of the past could be the swimwear of the future.

Read more:
Brands are leaning on ‘recycled’ clothes to meet sustainability goals. How are they made? And why is recycling them further so hard?

Shifting (and shrinking) swimsuits

Plenty who enjoyed a day on the sand in the first decades of the 20th century did so fully clothed. It was not uncommon for men to dress for the beach in three-piece suits or for women to wear gowns that fell to their ankles.

But women who ventured into the water donned belted, knee-length bathing gowns that featured bloomers to conceal the legs. Men’s two-piece bathing costumes revealed a little more, with a top extending to the thighs paired with shorts to the knees.

In the space of a couple of decades, however, swimsuits radically changed. Styles altered as attitudes to the exposure of bodies relaxed, shifting ideas around public morality.

The 1930s witnessed a rise in topless bathing for men as they adopted trunks. Some had half skirts at the front, and many sported belts with buckles to keep them firmly on the waist.

Women’s swimwear now revealed the arms, legs and back – then even more when bikinis appeared on Australian beaches in 1950. Shock rippled across the sand.

Swimwear had reached body-baring new dimensions.

Wool on the beach

Knitted wool – rather than woven wool or cotton – fitted swimwear snugly to the body, helping it shrink in size.

For wearers of Foy & Gibson’s evocatively named wool suits in the late 1920s and early 1930s – “Sunnybeach”, “Sunbath”, “Seafit” and “Siren” among them – this knit offered comfort and freedom.

Speedo’s knitted wool trucks in the late 1930s were made to streamline men’s figures, sparking the enticing slogan: “Next to your figure Speedo looks best!”

Those with knitting skills could make their own swimsuits that decade, using instructions like those given in the Australian Women’s Weekly.

With the introduction of “Lastex” – a rubber yarn – to woollen swimsuits in the 1930s, they transitioned to even more body-hugging fits. These exuded a new kind of glamorous appeal that elevated swimwear to a “sea-ductive” (as one newspaper columnist quipped) new height.

Read more:
The erotic theatre of the pool edge: a short history of female swimwear

The synthetic swimsuit revolution

When synthetics burst onto the market, Australians embraced the new “modern” fibres. Wool was also in short supply, prioritised for uniforms and blankets for second world war troops.

Swimwear started to be made in the so-called “miracle” fibres: nylon in the 1940s, then polyester (known as “Terylene” in Australia) in the 1950s. From the 1960s, “Lycra” (also called elastane and spandex) was blended into swimsuits. These made sleeker, slimmer, more satin-like suits.

Neoprene, a foam fabric, first appeared in wetsuits on Australia’s beaches in the late 1950s – increasing the possibilities for winter surfing. Wetsuits improved significantly in decades to follow, keeping their wearer warm by trapping a thin layer of water heated by the body.

In the pool, our Olympic swimmers tested more advanced fabrics. Those at the Sydney Games in 2000 wore the Speedo “fastskin”, with its compression fabric and replication of shark skin scales that streamlined the body in the water.

More recently, swimsuits made from recycled plastic – bottles, bags and other plastic waste – have emerged as an eco-friendly option. Some question, however, just how green these recycled swimmers truly are when reducing all plastic consumption is needed to make a difference.

Read more:
‘Fast suits’ and Olympic swimming: a tale of reduced drag and broken records

Why wool, again?

We might dismiss woollen swimsuits from the 20th century’s first decades as unpleasant or uncomfortable to wear. Or we might see them as unflattering for the way they sagged when wet.

But new processes for working with wool suggest it is ideal to wear in the water. New merino boardshorts have been designed to dry in less than seven minutes. Wool is also thermo-regulating, helping the body maintain an even temperature.

It’s not just that wool options are increasingly available. As we buy and throw away clothing at alarming rates, some have embraced the natural fibre as a sustainable, renewable alternative to synthetics.

Wool is biodegradable, naturally returning to and nourishing the earth, unlike synthetics that can take centuries to break down. Clothes in artificial fibres linger in landfill, with devastating consequences.

Our growing awareness of microplastics – tiny fibres released with washing that pollute marine (and other) environments – is also driving this shift.

So is it time to rethink wearing wool as you head to the beach this summer?

Lorinda Cramer receives funding from the Australian Research Council, and as Redmond Barry Fellow for the State Library of Victoria’s Fellowships Program 2022.

– ref. Wool swimsuits used to be standard beachwear – is it time to bring them back? – https://theconversation.com/wool-swimsuits-used-to-be-standard-beachwear-is-it-time-to-bring-them-back-195103

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology and Models Theme Leader for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Flinders University

Climate change is one of the main drivers of species loss globally. We know more plants and animals will die as heatwaves, bushfires, droughts and other natural disasters worsen.

But to date, science has vastly underestimated the true toll climate change and habitat destruction will have on biodiversity. That’s because it has largely neglected to consider the extent of “co-extinctions”: when species go extinct because other species on which they depend die out.

Our new research shows 10% of land animals could disappear from particular geographic areas by 2050, and almost 30% by 2100. This is more than double previous predictions. It means children born today who live to their 70s will witness literally thousands of animals disappear in their lifetime, from lizards and frogs to iconic mammals such as elephants and koalas.

But if we manage to dramatically reduce carbon emissions globally, we could save thousands of species from local extinction this century alone.

Read more:
This is Australia’s most important report on the environment’s deteriorating health. We present its grim findings

An extinction crisis unfolding

Every species depends on others in some way. So when a species dies out, the repercussions can ripple through an ecosystem.

For example, consider what happens when a species goes extinct due to a disturbance such as habitat loss. This is known as a “primary” extinction. It can then mean a predator loses its prey, a parasite loses its host or a flowering plant loses its pollinators.

A real-life example of a co-extinction that could occur soon is the potential loss of the critically endangered mountain pygmy possum (Burramys parvus) in Australia. Drought, habitat loss, and other pressures have caused the rapid decline of its primary prey, the bogong moth (Agrotis infusa).

Research suggests co-extinction was a main driver of past extinctions, including the five previous mass extinction events going back many hundreds of millions of years.

But until now, scientists have not been able to interconnect species at a global scale to estimate how many co-extinctions will occur under projected climate and land-use change. Our research aimed to close that information gap.

Read more:
Our laws fail nature. The government’s plan to overhaul them looks good, but crucial detail is yet to come

The fate of wildlife

Using one of Europe’s fastest supercomputers, we built a massive virtual Earth of interconnected food-web networks. We then applied scenarios of projected climate change and land-use degradation such as deforestation, to predict biodiversity loss across the planet.

Our virtual Earths included more than 15,000 food webs that we used to predict the interconnected fate of species to the end of the 21st Century.

Our models applied three scenarios of projected climate change based on future pathways of global carbon emissions. This includes the high-emissions, business-as-usual scenario that predicts a mean global temperature increase of 2.4℃ by 2050, and 4.4℃ by 2100.

If this scenario becomes reality, ecosystems on land worldwide will lose 10% of current animal diversity by 2050, on average. The figure rises to 27% by 2100.

Read more:
Worried about Earth’s future? Well, the outlook is worse than even scientists can grasp

Adding co-extinctions into the mix causes a 34% higher loss of biodiversity overall than just considering primary extinctions. This is why previous predictions have been too optimistic.

Worse still is the fate of the most vulnerable species in those networks. For species highest in food chains (omnivores and carnivores), the loss of biodiversity due to co-extinctions is a whopping 184% higher than that due to primary extinctions.

We also predict that the greatest relative biodiversity losses will occur in areas with the highest number of species already – a case of the rich losing their riches the fastest.

These are mainly in areas recognised as “biodiversity hotspots” — 36 highly threatened areas of the Earth containing the most unique species, such as Southwest Australia and South Africa’s Cape Floristic region. This is because the erosion of species-rich food webs makes biological communities more susceptible to future shocks.

We also detected that these networks of interacting species themselves will change. We used a measure of “connectance”, which refers to the density of network connections. Higher connectance generally means the species in a food web have more links to others, thereby making the entire network more resilient.

Connectance, we learnt, will decline between 18% and 34% by the end of this century in the worst-case climate scenario.

This reduction in connectance was also driven by the loss of some key species occupying the most important positions in their local networks. These could be top predators such as wolves or lions keeping plant eaters in check, or an abundant insect eaten by many different insectivores.

When such highly connected species go extinct, it makes the network even less resilient to disturbance, thereby driving even more loss of species than would otherwise have occurred under a natural ecological regime. This phenomenon illustrates the unprecedented challenges biodiversity faces today.

Can we minimise the threat?

As the United Nations Biodiversity Conference winds up this week in Montreal, Canada, governments are trying to agree on a new set of global actions to halt and reverse nature loss.

It follows the recent COP27 climate change summit in Egypt, where the resulting agreement was inadequate to deal with the global climate crisis.

We hope our findings will, in future, help governments identify which policies will lead to fewer extinctions.

For example, if we manage to achieve a lower carbon-emissions pathway that limits global warming to less than 3℃ by the end of this century, we could limit biodiversity loss to “only” 13%. This would translate into saving thousands of species from disappearing.

Clearly, humanity has so far underestimated its true impacts on the diversity of life on Earth. Without major changes, we stand to lose much of what sustains our planet.

Read more:
COP27: one big breakthrough but ultimately an inadequate response to the climate crisis

Corey J. A. Bradshaw receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Giovanni Strona does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Children born today will see literally thousands of animals disappear in their lifetime, as global food webs collapse – https://theconversation.com/children-born-today-will-see-literally-thousands-of-animals-disappear-in-their-lifetime-as-global-food-webs-collapse-196286

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In this, our last podcast for 2022, we talk with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. We spoke to each of them on the day the parliament was back to pass the energy package.

Albanese, who met Chinese President Xi Jinping during the recent summit season, reveals he anticipates a further positive development in China’s relationship with Australia within weeks.

Asked whether he expects some relaxation of China’s trade restrictions on Australia any time soon, he says: “I’m hopeful that any of the barriers to normal economic activity are removed and that we have stronger economic relations.

“China is our major economic partner and I think in coming weeks you will see further measures and activities which indicate a much-improved relationship, which is in the interests of both of our countries, but importantly as well is in the interests of peace and security in the region.”

Pressed on whether he’s indicating a likely loosening of restrictions on our exports, Albanese says: “I’m hoping that there’ll be further indications of an improvement in the relationship […] and we’ll see how that plays out over the next coming weeks.”

On the 2023 referendum for the Voice to Parliament, Albanese is “absolutely confident” its passage would make Closing the Gap more attainable.

“That is the objective. […] We know that where Indigenous Australians feel a sense of ownership over decisions, where they’re consulted about programs that have a direct impact on them, then you get better outcomes. And we see that in practical ways through the rangers’ program, through justice reinvestment programs.

“We have tried doing things from Canberra or from state capitals, seeking to make decisions on behalf of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. The successful programs have been ones that have directly consulted them and had their input.”

Carrying the referendum would also improve “the way that Australia is perceived internationally”.

In the Albanese interview we also canvass:

• Julian Assange
• energy policy
• COVID changes
• the 2023 budget
• Labor’s challenge in “heartland” seats.

Peter Dutton: Coalition won’t be ‘small target’ at next election

Dutton’s main task since the election has been holding together an opposition demoralised by defeat. But as he oversees policy development for the 2025 election will be adopt a “small target” strategy, as Albanese did?

“At the next election we will have a very significant offering of policy, which will distinguish us quite markedly from the Labor Party,” Dutton says.

“I’ve been in the parliament for 21 years. I have a good sense of balance and proportion, and there does need to be a balance of risk-taking. There needs to be an element of the government getting it wrong. There needs to be an opportunity for us to get the policies right.

“And I want to bring that experience to bear in the next election campaign. And I believe that, as a result of that, we won’t be small target, but we’re not going to be silly about policies. I mean, you went from one extreme under Bill Shorten in 2019 to the other under Anthony Albanese in 2022. So we have a balance to strike and I’ll be making those judgment calls as we get closer to the next election.”

The Liberals are always saying they need more women candidates but what are they actually going to do about getting them?

Dutton says (in an unspoken comparison with his predecessor): “I don’t have a problem with women and I’m not perceived to. I have a very significant track record and I’m happy to be compared against the prime minister or anybody else.”

Pushed on quotas, he says: “The Liberal Party doesn’t have a culture of imposing quotas. I want to see more women. I’ve made that very clear to the state presidents, I have made it very clear to preselection bodies. But in the Liberal Party our branch members have the say as to who they want as their local candidate. And generally that is somebody who has worked very hard on campaigns in the local electorate over a long period of time.”

In the Dutton interview we also canvass:

• cost of living
• the Liberal Party’s stance on the Voice
• Josh Frydenberg’s future
• Scott Morrison
• participation in the NSW state election.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Albanese flags new progress in China relationship ‘in coming weeks’ – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-albanese-flags-new-progress-in-china-relationship-in-coming-weeks-196728

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Evans, Lecturer in Policing and Emergency Management, University of Tasmania

The killing of two police officers and a good samaritan, as well as the wounding of two other officers in Wieambilla, Queensland, has sent shockwaves through Australia.

While more details about possible motives will emerge over time, evidence already suggests that at least one of the alleged gunmen – Gareth Train – was a firm believer in a host of conspiracy theories.

This is important because the killings are the clearest example of what security, policing researchers, and law enforcement have warned of – conspiracy beliefs can be motivators for actual or attempted violence against specific people, places, and organisations.

So what should police do, if anything, to counter conspiracy theories?

Not always just harmless speculation

The Wieambilla killings are the latest in a string of serious incidents involving conspiracy theorists.

Just one week before the killings, 25 people were arrested in Germany – many associated with the conspiracist Reichsbürger movement – for plotting to overthrow the government.

Read more:
What is the Reichsbürger movement accused of trying to overthrow the German government?

In November, a New Zealander – Graham Philip – became the first person in the country’s history to be convicted of sabotage after trying to bring down the North Island’s power-grid in protest against the government’s COVID-19 restrictions and vaccine mandate. Like Train, Philip also publicly expressed beliefs in several conspiracy theories.

In 2021, the Australian Federal Police uncovered a plot by some conspiracy theorists in Australia to arrest members of the government by impersonating police officers.

These cases tell us that conspiracy theories aren’t always just harmless speculation. An important reason for this is because people who express belief in one conspiracy theory often endorse others, including completely unrelated or contradictory ones.

To explain this tendency, “conspiracist ideation” or conspiracism is used to describe a predisposition to conspiracy thinking and a worldview of interlinking, widespread conspiracies. Feelings of disempowerment and a lack of trust in authorities can lead to this mindset.

As I have argued elsewhere, this has a range of impacts on police operational environments. Conspiracism may lead believers to try to correct perceived wrongdoing through coercion and violence. Justification for the use of violence often stems from the frequent “othering” of certain groups by conspiracy theories through painting them as dangerous or using them as scapegoats.

Read more:
Conspiracy theories are dangerous even if very few people believe them

There’s also a well-established link between violent extremism and conspiracism due to extremists often incorporating conspiracy theories into their broader worldview.

Emerging evidence also suggests conspiracy theories are a radicalisation risk and are being used as recruitment tools by extremist groups as they often focus on emotive subjects such as child protection, freedom, and health.

What should police do about conspiracism?

But what, if anything, can and should police do about conspiracism?

An obvious starting place is monitoring. This could be done through “fixated persons units” – the specialist capability in some police jurisdictions that undertakes risk assessments of people with obsessions, grievances or ideologies that may lead to serious violence.

Read more:
Friendlyjordies producer arrest: what is the NSW Police Fixated Persons Investigations Unit and when is it used?

Conspiracism and certain individual conspiracies could also be incorporated into frameworks for countering violent extremism.

Yet monitoring may be counterproductive, as it could reinforce ideas of persecution and distrust. Indeed when Australian media began reporting on Train’s preoccupation with conspiracies, online conspiracy groups began to assert the killings were a hoax designed to justify the persecution of conspiracy theorists.

There’s also evidence that links certain mental health conditions to conspiracy theories. Conditions like PTSD, paranoid schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder may also contribute to a willingness to act on conspiratorial beliefs. This is not to suggest these conditions are solely responsible, but that they are a common feature of some cases where individuals have acted on conspiratorial views. For example, one study found around 60% of QAnon conspiracy adherents who committed crimes before and after the January 6 Capitol insurrection had documented mental health conditions. This is an important consideration for any future monitoring, as knowledge of this may worsen mental health conditions or motivate action.

Other strategies include targeting suppliers of conspiracies before conspiracies spread (“pre-emptive strikes”) or afterwards to limit their damage (“counter-strikes”). However, these strategies are of limited use for police, as they rely on either taking down platforms and removing/flagging conspiratorial content. These areas lie beyond policing’s role.

Preventative or responsive strategies targeting conspiracy consumers are more promising for police, able to be employed by general duties officers in their interactions with the public.

For example, people who feel more powerless tend to be more likely to believe in conspiracy theories. By relying on the principles of procedural justice – such as allowing people to have a voice during encounters – police may be able to enhance people’s feelings of control.

Low trust environments also breed conspiracies. A continued focus on police trust-building initiatives may therefore also help immunise against conspiracies.

Finally, general duties officers may be able to engage in “alleviating” strategies when interacting with conspiracists. This could include “rationality based debunking” which emphasises focusing on the internal logic of a conspiracy theory or on key facts integral to the theory.

The Wieambilla killings will likely lead to increased police focus on the threat posed by conspiracy theories. In doing so, police should consider including conspiracism into existing frameworks for countering violent extremism, while being mindful of the risk monitoring poses to the entrenchment of views. Focusing on procedural justice and trust-building will also be vital.

Nicholas Evans is affiliated with the New Zealand Australia Policing Advisory Agency (ANZPAA).

– ref. Queensland police killings show the threat posed by conspiracy theories – how should police respond? – https://theconversation.com/queensland-police-killings-show-the-threat-posed-by-conspiracy-theories-how-should-police-respond-196642

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Pudney, Associate Professor of Industrial and Applied Mathematics, University of South Australia

Batteries are undoubtedly part of our energy future. Should you put one in your home now to store solar output, manage your energy use and cut costs? It really depends on what you want to achieve.

Studies in 2017 and 2021 identified key motivations for installing home batteries:

• using your own solar energy
• good for environment
• independence from the grid
• saving money.

With these goals in mind, our research suggests it’s hard to justify buying a battery right now on cost savings alone. If other reasons also matter to you, it might be justified.

Using your own solar

More than 30% of Australian homes have solar systems. They typically generate more than is needed during the middle of the day, less than is needed during morning and evening demand peaks, and nothing at night.

If you don’t have a battery, when you need more power than your solar system generates it’s imported from the grid. You can also export surplus energy to the grid and be paid for it.

But, as solar capacity grows, the maximum power new solar system owners are allowed to export is being limited in many locations. And if too many people in your street are exporting, the local voltage will go high and solar inverters will curtail generation.

Read more:
Solar curtailment is emerging as a new challenge to overcome as Australia dashes for rooftop solar

One way you can avoid curtailment is by shifting some of your energy use to the middle of the day. Significant loads that could be shifted include:

• water heating
• pool pumps
• air conditioning
• appliances such as dishwashers, clothes washers and dryers
• electric vehicle charging.

If you still have surplus generation, it can be stored in a battery and used later to reduce the energy you import from the grid to cover loads you can’t shift. The energy you could transfer via a battery each day will be whichever is the minimum of your excess generation and the amount you normally import. For example, if you have 3 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of excess generation in a day but import only 2kWh to meet your overnight loads, the maximimum energy you can transfer via a battery is 2kWh.

The graph below shows an example of the energy that could be transferred each day of a year, averaged over 40 houses at Lochiel Park, a precinct of low-energy housing in Adelaide.

For these households, a battery with an 8kWh capacity could handle the energy transfer most days. However, the average energy transferred each day is only 4kWh because some days have low surplus generation or low overnight demand. Households with large solar systems and large daily energy imports from the grid can transfer more.

The battery itself will limit rates of charging and discharging. If you are generating more power than it can handle, some of the surplus will be exported or the solar output could be curtailed. If your load is more than it can handle, you will need extra power from the grid.

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When the heat hits: how to make our homes comfortable without cranking up the aircon

Environmental benefits

Storing surplus solar energy and using it instead of fossil-fuel energy from the grid will have environmental benefits.

Most home batteries are lithium-ion batteries. Despite concerns about the environmental impacts of a lithium-ion-led energy revolution, efforts are being made to reduce these impacts.

Other ways to reduce environmental impacts without a battery include:

• use less energy, and shift your load to match your clean energy supply

• choose a green retailer or buy GreenPower.

Independence

A 2017 study found nearly 70% of respondents wanted to eventually disconnect from the grid. Remote households have done it for decades, but need large solar systems and large batteries backed up by diesel generators and gas for heating and cooking.

Being connected to a grid has significant benefits. When not generating enough solar power you can get energy from somewhere else. And when generating more than you need, you can send the surplus somewhere else that needs it. Connecting many loads to many generators increases flexibility and efficiency.

A home battery can let you run your home when the grid fails, but you may need extra equipment to isolate it from the grid at such times. Being off-grid means you may also need to manage your battery differently to keep enough energy in reserve to meet your needs during outages.

Saving money

You could use a battery to reduce costs in two ways:

• store surplus solar energy during periods of a low feed-in tariff (the money you receive for exporting energy to the grid), then use it later instead of importing energy when the price is high

• join a virtual power plant (VPP).

Let us explain further.

The cost of electricity varies throughout each day, depending on demand and on available generation. If you have a meter that records when energy is used, time-of-use and dynamic tariffs will allow you to make the most of price fluctuations.

If the difference between your feed-in tariff and your peak import price is 40c/kWh, each kWh of solar energy you store then use during the peak period saves you 40c. The graph above showed an average daily transfer of 4kWh, saving $1.60 per day. But this household requires an 8kWh battery, costing about $9,600. The payback period is over 16 years – beyond the warrantied life of the battery.

In 2017 we simulated battery use for 38 houses with solar to determine the viability and payback period. Each dot in the graph below indicates the payback period for a particular household with given battery size. The horizontal axis shows the annual surplus energy it generated.

The payback period is better for smaller batteries, which cost less, and for houses with larger annual export.

We assumed a price difference of 40c/kWh between import price and feed-in tariff. We also assumed a future battery price of $600/kWh – we are not there yet (unless you can get a generous subsidy).

The other way of reducing the payback period, and supporting the grid, is to join a virtual power plant (VPP). A VPP is a network of home solar batteries from which the electricity grid can draw energy in times of need.

VPP operators typically offer discounts on the battery cost, its management to take advantage of the retail tariffs on offer, and payments for allowing them to use your battery to trade energy on the electricity markets. Subsidies and payments vary across VPPs.

Read more:
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Other options might be a better bet at this stage

Understand why you want a battery before you start looking. There are other options for making better use of your solar generation, getting clean energy and reducing your costs.

If you have a large solar system, high grid imports and can get a good subsidy, or if you just want cutting-edge energy technology, then you might be able to justify a battery.

If you don’t have solar already, the economics of a solar system with a battery can look attractive. But the solar panels will provide most of the savings.

Peter Pudney received funding from the Cooperative Research Centre for Low Carbon Living.

Adrian Grantham works for APG Insights and CXC – undertaking contract work for AEMO.

Heather Smith chairs the Coalition for Community Energy. She has received funding from the Australian Government’s Remote and Regional Microgrids and Preparing Communities programs and CSIRO. She consults as Changing Weather to community energy groups.

John Boland receives funding from the Regional and Remote Communities reliability Fund, and has in the past received funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.

– ref. Thinking of buying a battery to help power your home? Here’s what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/thinking-of-buying-a-battery-to-help-power-your-home-heres-what-you-need-to-know-192610

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sender Dovchin, Associate Professor and the Director of Research, Curtin University

All names of participants mentioned are pseudonyms to protect their identity.

In our recent study of 150 non-English speaking background migrants and refugees living in Australia, nearly 80% revealed using their birth names in their CVs led to fewer call-backs or no response at all.

This highlights language-based discrimination, and is an example of “name microaggressions” – negative assumptions based on ethnic-sounding names.

Our participants said experiencing microaggressions against their birth names has taken a heavy psychological toll on them.

What is name microaggression?

Name microaggression refers to a stigma based on negative assumptions associated with migrants and refugees, purely based on their ethnic-sounding birth names. Research has found more ethnic-sounding birth names can cause unfounded negative beliefs about the person, such as being less skilled or less capable than someone with a more Anglo-sounding name.

Name microaggressions can present as names being mispronounced, misspelled, misunderstood, misgendered, or mocked. A common occurrence is for some people choosing to use a more “English-friendly” variation of a migrant’s name instead of the person’s birth name if it’s not easy to say, spell or remember. This microaggression is an act of symbolic violence that is not always intentional, but is still hurtful and disrespectful.

Our participants talked about why name microaggressions are so hurtful, describing how their birth name carries crucial cultural, ethnic, linguistic, and family significance. Many participants suffered and continue to suffer from psychological distress and negative emotions such as embarrassment, self-shaming, fear, anxiety, and nervousness when they hear their names mispronounced.

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Name microaggressions are often barriers to employment

Our interview data found newly arrived migrants and refugees who use their birth names seem to be the most vulnerable. Because their birth name sounds different, looks odd or is hard to pronounce, their skills and qualifications are discounted or rejected in institutional contexts such as recruitment and employment.

Name microaggression is primarily found in the initial hiring process of recruitment when a candidate’s CV is examined before they decide whether to go ahead with an interview.

As a result, most migrants in the study claimed to have adopted a “CV whitening” strategy by using an alternative English name.

For example, one research participant, Oksana (pseudonym) from Ukraine, has altered her birth name by removing her heavily “post-Soviet sounding/looking” last name “Пугачева” (Pugacheva) to give a more Western feel. Instead she uses “Pugachev” in order to sound more Western.

Name microaggressions are not limited to job recruitment. We found most of our participants adopted “renaming practices” in every day life. This involves choosing new Anglo-sounding names instead of correcting their teachers, peers, friends, and colleagues when their names are mispronounced.

Some Chinese participants replaced their names with English names during their adolescent years while taking English classes in China.

As a result, many Chinese students offer alternative Australian-sounding names – Andy instead of Wang, Grace instead of Qian.

The wider (whiter) community needs to do better

The first step in maintaining an inclusive multicultural society is to start respecting migrants’ birth names. Names are identities and histories. Names not only specify and individualise their bearers but also serve as means of empowerment and belonging. This sense of belonging connects them to their respective cultures, and the correct usage of birth names can bring a feeling of belonging in society.

When educators, policymakers, or employers practise name microaggressions, they convey a message that people’s racial, ethnic, cultural, and linguistic backgrounds don’t matter.

Most employers in Australia explicitly declare their commitment to diversity. But our research shows they still engage in these microaggressions against migrants. Someone’s birth name may not seem like a big deal, but it shows a significant expression of ignorance.

Workplaces, schools, colleges and universities need to improve their efforts to build an inclusive environment that accepts diverse names originating from many different languages.

Social justice, diversity and inclusion all start here.

Sender Dovchin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What is a name microaggression and could you be doing it without knowing? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-name-microaggression-and-could-you-be-doing-it-without-knowing-196272

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bianca Cannon, GP and Lecturer at Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney

How are babies made? Giaan, age 8

Thanks for your interesting question, Giaan!

Lots of kids your age wonder about how babies are made. It’s an important question because making babies allows the human species (and other animals) to continue.

Knowing the body parts

The first step in making a baby happens when a sperm from a man’s body joins with an egg from a woman’s body.

To understand how this happens, it is helpful to know the proper names for different body parts. These pictures may help.

When I say man, I’m referring to a person with a penis and testes (sometimes called testicles).

When I say woman, I’m referring to a person with a uterus (where the baby grows), vagina (the passage inside the vulva that leads to the uterus), and ovaries.

But sometimes, people are born with differences in these body parts. And sometimes these body parts don’t match how people think of themselves – as a man or woman or non-binary person.

Where do the sperm and egg come from?

Puberty is the time when your body begins to develop, and changes from child to adult, usually in later primary school and early high school years.

Sperm look a bit like tadpoles but are so small that you need a microscope to see them. They are made in the man’s testes and are released in a liquid called semen.

Once a boy goes through puberty, their testes can produce millions of sperm each day.

Eggs are stored in the woman’s ovaries and after puberty there is usually one egg released per month.

An egg is just big enough to see – it’s about the size of a grain of sand (still pretty small!).

How do the sperm and egg join?

So how do the sperm and egg join to make a baby? This is called conception.

The most common way conception happens is when a woman and a man have sexual intercourse. This means that the man’s penis goes inside the woman’s vagina and semen squirts out.

Sperm come out of the penis and go up into the vagina and if one of the sperm connects with an egg, the two may combine to make a baby (actually, it’s called an embryo at this stage).

The embryo makes its way to the uterus, where it will grow for the next nine months, until the baby is ready to be born.

Babies can be conceived in other ways too

Some families have two mums, and they may ask a man to provide sperm (called a sperm donor). The doctor places the sperm in the uterus of one of the mums.

There is also a process called IVF (in-vitro-fertilisation). For this, doctors take sperm from a man and an egg from a woman and combine them in a dish to form an embryo.

Then the embryo is put inside the woman’s uterus by the doctor and continues to grow there, just like other babies.

OK, then what happens?

After the egg and sperm join to make an embryo, the embryo attaches to the mother’s uterus.

An organ called the placenta forms to supply the growing baby with all the nutrition it needs.

When the baby is ready to be born, the muscles of the mum’s uterus start to contract and push the baby out through the vagina.

Some babies can’t be safely pushed out through the vagina and are delivered by an operation where a doctor removes the baby through a cut below the mum’s belly button (called a caesarean or c-section). During the operation, the doctor gives the mum a special injection in her back to take the pain away.

Have more questions? Kids often do

Often kids have more questions to ask about some of the things discussed in this article. Some kids want to know a lot more and others maybe just a couple of things.

If you have more questions, then have a chat with mum, dad, or another trusted adult, such as a teacher. Here is a good resource for them to look at if they are unsure about how much to explain.

Bianca Cannon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Curious Kids: how are babies made? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-are-babies-made-190447

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith University

Christmas comes but once a year – as do Christmas party games. With such little practice it’s hard to get good at any of them.

Let me help. I’m going to share with you some expert tips, tested through mathematical modelling, on how to win one of the most popular games: Bad Santa – also known as Dirty Santa, White Elephant, Grab Bag, Yankee Swap, Thieving Secret Santa, or simply “that present-stealing game”.

This isn’t advice on being a bad sport. It’s about being a good Bad Santa – which is the name of the game. You might even come away with a good gift and bragging rights.

How Bad Santa works

Bad Santa is a variation of the classic Kris Kringle (or Secret Santa) game, in which each guest receives an anonymous gift bought by another guest. Part of the fun (for others) is the unwrapping of silly and useless gifts, which is done one by one.

Bad Santa spices things up. All the gifts are pooled. Guests take turns to choose one to unwrap. Or they can choose to “steal” a gift already opened by someone else. The person losing their gift then gets the same choice: open a wrapped present or steal someone else’s.

It’s a good alternative to buying a gift for everyone, and a great way to ruin friendships.

The order of players is usually determined by drawing numbers from a hat. This is important, because you’ve probably already noted the disadvantage of going first and the benefit of going last. The right rules can mitigate this. There are at least a dozen different versions of this game published online, and some are much less fair than others.

How I tested Bad Santa

The best way to test Bad Santa rule variations and playing strategies would be to observe games in real life – say, by attending 1,000 Christmas parties (funding bodies please call me).

I did the next best thing, deploying the same type of computer modelling (known as agent-based modelling) used to understand everything from bidding in electricity markets to how the human immune system works.

In my model there are 16 virtual guests and 16 gifts. Each has different present preferences, rating opened gifts on a scale of 1 to 10. They will steal a gift they rate better than a 5. To make it interesting, three gifts are rated highly by everyone and there are three no one really wants – probably a novelty mug or something.

After simulating 50,000 games with different rules, I’ve found a set of rules that seems the most fair, no matter what number you draw from the hat.

Choosing the fairest rules

The following graph shows the results for four different game variations.

The higher the line, the greater the overall satisfaction. The flatter the lines, the fairer the result. (If gifts were chosen randomly with no stealing, every player’s average satisfaction score would be 5.)

The most unfair result comes from the “dark blue rules”, which stipulate that any gift can only be stolen once in any round. This mean if you’re the last person, you’ve got the biggest choice and get to keep what you steal. If you go first, you’re bound to lose out.

Fairest and best Bad Santa rules

The most fair outcomes come from the “red rules”:

• A gift can be stolen multiple times each turn. This keeps presents moving between guests, which adds to the fun.

• Once a person holds the same gift three times it becomes “locked”, and can no longer be stolen. This evens the game out a lot. Later players still see more gifts, but earlier players have more chance to lock the gift they want. It also ensures games don’t go on for hours.

• After the last player’s turn, there is one more round of stealing, starting with the very first player. This also gives them a chance to steal at least once – and a slight advantage. But overall, these rules provide the most even outcomes.

Like most games, the rules are’t perfect. But the maths shows they are better than the alternatives. If you want to test other scenarios using my model, you can download my source code here.

Three tips on game strategy

The right rules help level the playing field. They don’t eliminate the need for strategic thinking to maximise your chance to get a gift you want.

As in real life, seemingly fair rules can be manipulated.

One thing you could do is team up with other players to manipulate the “three holds and locked” rule. To do this, you’ll need at least two co-conspirators.

Say your friends Donner and Blitzen have their preferred gifts, and now it’s your turn. You steal Blitzen’s gift. Blitzen in turn steals Donner’s, who steals yours, and so on. Donner and Blitzen end up holding their chosen gifts a second time, then a third. You helped them out, and then can choose another gift.

In competitive markets this type of co-operation is usually know as collusion – and it’s illegal. In sport, it would simply be called cheating. So I’m not saying you should do this; I am merely explaining how the strategy works. If you do this and end up on the naughty list, don’t blame me.

I haven’t yet tested rules variations in my model to see how this collusion can best be eliminated or minimised. Maybe by next Christmas. (Or maybe not – for me, cheating through maths is half the fun of the game.)

So let me leave you with two perfectly legitimate strategies.

First, and most obviously, you must steal gifts!

My modelling quantifies how necessary this is. I simulated a game in which four guests will never steal a gift. Those guests are 75% less satisfied with their final gifts than the players who do steal. They’re also much less fun at parties.

Second, steal even if there’s nothing you want yet.

Steal the present you think someone else will want. If a later player steals your gift, you get another chance to pick again when more gifts have been opened.

And if someone gets Grinchy when you use these techniques to bag the best gift, just be sure to tell them you read about it on The Conversation.

Joel Gilmore ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. How to win the gift-stealing game Bad Santa, according to a mathematician – https://theconversation.com/how-to-win-the-gift-stealing-game-bad-santa-according-to-a-mathematician-196483