Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Keith Rathbone, Senior Lecturer, Modern European History and Sports History, Macquarie University

Last week, FIFA officially awarded Saudi Arabia the 2034 World Cup.

The Gulf Kingdom was the sole bidder after the Asian Football Confederation made it clear it would not support an Australian bid.

Supporters of the decision, including respected sports journalist Tracey Holmes, argue a World Cup in the kingdom offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity to foster positive change. A range of celebrities and players also congratulated the Saudi Arabian Football Association and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman.

Human rights groups, though, have widely condemned FIFA’s decision – Human Rights Watch warned:

[There is] a near certainty the 2034 World Cup […] will be stained with pervasive rights violations.

FIFA and human rights

FIFA claims it can encourage positive human rights transformations in host nations, and since 2017 it has enshrined human rights in its guiding principles.

In 2017, FIFA’s executive committee signed onto the so-called “Ruggie Principles”, adopted by the United Nations Human Rights Council unanimously in 2011.

These principles recognise that:

• states have the duty to protect human rights
• businesses have the responsibility to align their activities with human rights
• individuals and organisations need to have effective judicial and non-judicial remedies to human rights violations.

FIFA subsequently published its own Human Rights Policy. It makes a commitment for FIFA to “exercise its leverage, and seek to increase said leverage where necessary, in connection with adverse human rights impacts arising through its business relationships” and to “strive to go beyond its responsibility to respect human rights […] by taking measures to promote the protection of human rights.”

Read more:
Is FIFA’s sponsorship deal with a Saudi-owned oil giant really ‘a middle finger’ to women’s soccer?

Querying recent World Cup hosts

Of course, FIFA’s own guidelines raise the question: does evidence support the claim that hosting a World Cup promotes human rights improvements?

There is very little reason to suspect the FIFA 2034 World Cup will lead to lasting change in Saudi Arabia. Mega events rarely result in lasting human rights improvements, especially when measured against their human costs.

The reason why sports mega-events do not change societies is because FIFA’s influence is very weak compared to the power of authoritarian rulers like Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Arabia), Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (Qatar), and Vladimir Putin (Russia).

These leaders are adept at taking on mega-events – in sports or otherwise – and using these events’ popularity to drive their own political agendas.

The Russian 2018 World Cup bid shows how little power FIFA has to change a government’s political agenda.

Russia allegedly won the cup after a fraudulent competitive process.

Then, legislators in Western Europe and the United States pressed FIFA to move the competition because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its alleged attacks on defectors in the United Kingdom. During the cup, LGBTQIA+ activists and journalists in Russia faced persecution from state security.

Ahead of the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Qatar promised to reform its human rights record. The government made changes to improve labour relations, but hundreds if not thousands died during the construction phase.

The Qataris made very few steps to improve rights for women, religious minorities, or LGBTQIA+ people. During the event, FIFA banned rainbow captains’ armbands, previously allowed, at the request of the Qatari government, which provoked protest from players.

Human rights and the Saudi bid

In July this year, FIFA published reports on the 2034 bid and its human rights strategy in connection with the World Cup.

FIFA’s executive summary of the 2034 bid assesses the risks of a human rights issue in 2034 as medium. However, it also says there is “good potential that hosting the competition could help contribute to positive human rights impacts”.

This comes despite the possibility of labour rights violations, identity-based discrimination, violations of the rights for the disabled, and the lack of freedom of expression.

The Saudi Arabian Football Association’s 28-page document makes no promises about press freedom. Nor does it mention LGBTQIA+ rights – Saudi law criminalises homosexuality and trans identity.

The report can offer no concrete assurances Saudi Arabia will protect religious freedom and minority rights.

What about labour rights?

The largest part of the Saudi Arabian Football Association’s report deals with labour relations. It promises to rectify the kingdom’s derisory labour rights after identifying widespread labour problems, including issues with welfare standards and forced labour.

However, the report also notes the kingdom has made several overhauls of labour law in the past two decades to improve working conditions.

Nevertheless, there are many reasons to doubt these promises.

The 2034 World Cup requires an astounding 11 new stadiums, transport networks, and the construction of almost 200,000 new hotel rooms.

The kingdom’s construction boom is already fuelled by approximately 13 million migrant labourers working under dire conditions. A Guardian investigation discovered high numbers of excess deaths among migrant labourers in Saudi Arabia, particularly those from Bangladesh. In 2022 alone, 1,500 Bangladeshi migrant workers died.

Why give the World Cup to authoritarian regimes?

So why does FIFA maintain that awarding hosting rights to problematic countries is a chance to drive positive change when the evidence suggests the opposite?

FIFA can only award the hosting rights to countries that bid for the World Cup. The increasingly high costs of hosting mean few countries are willing to sign onto the hosting responsibilities.

Australia was willing to host in 2034, but crucially it did not have the support of the Asian Football Confederation.

Saudi Arabia simply was willing to spend what it took to ensure their bid won. This is possibly another example of their broader effort to “sportswash” their regime’s human rights records.

Read more:
What can sport fans do if their team, or league, is being sportswashed?

For FIFA, it makes sense to award bidding rights to countries that can generate revenue through co-partnerships, sponsorships, and most importantly favourable TV contracts. In this regard, Saudi Arabia’s bid makes the most sense.

Keith Rathbone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. FIFA has a human rights policy, so how could it award Saudi Arabia the 2034 soccer World Cup? – https://theconversation.com/fifa-has-a-human-rights-policy-so-how-could-it-award-saudi-arabia-the-2034-soccer-world-cup-245852

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shane Darke, Professor at the National Drug & Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney

Opioids are some of the most widely used and misused drugs in the world.

Opioids are central nervous system depressants, meaning they slow down brain activity and relax the muscles. They include the natural products of the opium poppy as well as synthetic (human-made) compounds derived from it.

Commonly used opioids include heroin, morphine, opium, codeine, methadone, buprenorphine, oxycodone, fentanyl and the nitazenes. They might be prescribed by a doctor for very strong pain relief or taken non-medically to induce feelings of euphoria.

The major risk associated with opioids is overdose. Opioids are present in around 60% of drug-induced deaths in Australia.

A medicine called naloxone is available for Australians to take home in case of opioid overdose. Here’s how it works, when you should have it on hand and when you should use it.

What happens during opioid overdose?

All opioids depress respiration (slow or stop breathing) and overdose deaths are often the result of respiratory failure. Heart attack may also occur as following lack of oxygen.

How do you know a person has overdosed? There are three main signs of opioid overdose, the so-called “diagnostic triad”. These include:

• a slow breathing rate (possibly down to four breathes a minute)
• constricted or “pinpoint” pupils
• being unconscious and unable to be woken up.

These and other signs, such as confusion or cold and clammy skin, can also mean potent nitazenes have been added to drugs sold as cocaine, ketamine, methamphetamine or MDMA (ecstasy) without someone’s knowledge. Synthetic nitrazenes can be up to 50 times more potent than fentanyl.

Instant death following opioid overdose is unusual and there is usually time to intervene – but a quick response is very important.

Read more:
Opioids more potent than fentanyl have been detected in Australia. So what are nitazenes?

An effective antidote

Fortunately, there is a highly effective antidote to opioid overdose.

Naloxone, known by brand names Nyxoid or Narcan, rapidly reverses the depression of the central nervous and respiratory systems caused by opioids.

It does so by attaching to the opioid receptors in the brain, and reversing or blocking the effects of the drug. It has traditionally been used in the form of pre-packaged syringes for injection into muscle but is now also available as a nasal spray, making it far more accessible and easier for bystanders to administer.

Australia’s take-home naloxone program began in 2022 and over 450,000 doses have reportedly been dispensed since.

In overdose cases, an intramuscular injection or nasal spray of naloxone can be given, with repeat doses if the person does not respond or slips back into overdose.

Both are effective but the nasal spray has advantages in the community because of its ease of use and because it doesn’t carry any risk of needle-stick injury. The nasal spray is intended for use by bystanders or first responders to give to a person who has overdosed. There is no need to sniff or inhale to get the full benefit.

The Australian Drug Foundation says people who are dependent on opioids may have a strong urge to take more drugs after being revived with naloxone. They warn:

Naloxone only stays in the body for a short period of time (30–90 minutes) whereas heroin and other opioid drugs stay in the body for much longer. The effects of sustained-release opioids like OxyContin® and MS Contin® can last for over 12 hours, so naloxone will wear off long before the opioid has left the system. This means that taking more opioids after taking naloxone could cause a second overdose.

There are no dangers or side effects from using naloxone. Its sole purpose and effect is to reverse an overdose. However, naloxone can trigger sudden opioid withdrawal symptoms such as nausea, vomiting for racing heart. Naloxone works for all opioids, including the stronger ones such as fentanyl. Extra naloxone doses may be needed in cases involving the more potent forms of opioids.

Should you have it on hand?

Everyone who uses opioids should have naloxone in their home. This includes people who use drugs such as heroin, as well as people prescribed opioids for pain.

Obviously, the person will not be capable of administering it to themselves. So those around them need to know where the naloxone is, and how and when to administer it. If an overdose is suspected, an ambulance should always be called even when naloxone is given, so the person is properly assessed and treated.

Opioids are dangerous substances, but overdoses can be reversed if prompt action is taken. Having naloxone around people who use opioids in whatever form can and does save lives. All people using such drugs should have naloxone available and ready to use.

Shane Darke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Naloxone can reverse opioid overdose. Here’s why you might need some at home or in your bag – https://theconversation.com/naloxone-can-reverse-opioid-overdose-heres-why-you-might-need-some-at-home-or-in-your-bag-245365

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sione Tekiteki, Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Law, Auckland University of Technology

The A$140 million aid agreement between Australia and Nauru signed last week is a prime example of the geopolitical tightrope vulnerable Pacific nations are walking in the 21st century.

The deal provides Nauru with direct budgetary support, stable banking services, and policing and security resources. In return, Australia will have the right to veto any pact Nauru might make with other countries – namely China.

The veto terms are similar to the “Falepili Union” between Australia and Tuvalu signed late last year, which granted Tuvaluans access to Australian residency and climate mitigation support, in exchange for security guarantees.

And just last week, more details emerged about a defence deal between the United States and Papua New Guinea, now revealed to be worth US$864 million. In exchange for investment in military infrastructure development, training and equipment, the US gains unrestricted access to six ports and airports.

Also last week, PNG signed a ten-year, A$600 million deal to fund its own team in Australia’s NRL competition. In return, “PNG will not sign a security deal that could allow Chinese police or military forces to be based in the pacific nation”.

These arrangements are all emblematic of the geopolitical tussle playing out in the Pacific between China and the US and its allies.

This strategic competition is often framed in mainstream media and political commentary as an extension of “the great game” played by rival powers. From a traditional security perspective, Pacific nations can be depicted as seeking advantage to leverage their own development priorities.

But this assumption that Pacific governments are “diplomatic price setters”, able to play China and the US off against each other, overlooks the very real power imbalances involved.

The risk, as the authors of one recent study argued, is that the “China threat” narrative becomes the justification for “greater Western militarisation and economic dominance”. In other words, Pacific nations become diplomatic price takers.

Defence diplomacy

Pacific nations are vulnerable on several fronts: most have a low economic base and many are facing a debt crisis. At the same time, they are on the front line of climate change and rising sea levels.

The costs of recovering from more frequent extreme weather events create a vicious cycle of more debt and greater vulnerability. As was reported at this year’s United Nations COP29 summit, climate financing in the Pacific is mostly in the form of concessional loans.

The Pacific is already one of the world’s most aid-reliant regions. But considerable doubt has been expressed about the effectiveness of that aid when recipient countries still struggle to meet development goals.

At the country level, government systems often lack the capacity to manage increasing aid packages, and struggle with the diplomatic engagement and other obligations demanded by the new geopolitical conditions.

In August, Kiribati even closed its borders to diplomats until 2025 to allow the new government “breathing space” to attend to domestic affairs.

In the past, Australia championed governance and institutional support as part of its financial aid. But a lot of development assistance is now skewed towards policing and defence.

Australia recently committed A$400 million to the Pacific Policing Initiative, on top of a host of other security-related initiatives. This is all part of an overall rise in so-called “defence diplomacy”, leading some observers to criticise the politicisation of aid at the expense of the Pacific’s most vulnerable people.

Lack of good faith

At the same time, many political parties in Pacific nations operate quite informally and lack comprehensive policy manifestos. Most governments lack a parliamentary subcommittee that scrutinises foreign policy.

The upshot is that foreign policy and security arrangements can be driven by personalities rather than policy priorities, with little scrutiny. Pacific nations are also susceptible to corruption, as highlighted in Transparency International’s 2024 Annual Corruption Report.

Writing about the consequences of the geopolitical rivalry in the Solomon Islands, Transparency Solomon Islands Executive Director Ruth Liloqula wrote:

Since 2019, my country has become a hotbed for diplomatic tensions and foreign interference, and undue influence.

Similarly, Pacific affairs expert Steven Ratuva has argued the Australia–Tuvalu agreement was one-sided and showed a “lack of good faith”.

Behind these developments, of course, lies the evolving AUKUS security pact between Australia, the US and United Kingdom, a response to growing Chinese presence and influence in the “Indo-Pacific” region.

The response from Pacific nations has been diplomatic, perhaps from a sense they cannot “rock the submarine” too much, given their ties to the big powers involved. But former Pacific Islands Forum secretary-general Meg Taylor has warned:

Pacific leaders were being sidelined in major geopolitical decisions affecting their region and they need to start raising their voices for the sake of their citizens.

While there are obvious advantages that come with strategic alliances, the tangible impacts for Pacific nations remain negligible. As the UN’s Asia and the Pacific progress report on sustainable development goals states, not a single goal is on track to be achieved by 2030.

Unless these partnerships are grounded in good faith and genuine sustainable development, the grassroots consequences of geopolitics-as-usual will not change.

Sione Tekiteki has provided advisory services to Pacific governments.

– ref. Superpower rivalry is making Pacific aid a bargaining chip – vulnerable island nations still lose out – https://theconversation.com/superpower-rivalry-is-making-pacific-aid-a-bargaining-chip-vulnerable-island-nations-still-lose-out-244280

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sasha Grishin, Adjunct Professor of Art History, Australian National University

Now aged 95, Yayoi Kusama for many decades has been considered one of the most influential contemporary artists. She works across a wide range of art forms, including sculpture and installations, painting, graphic arts, fashion, video art, performance and writing.

Kusama’s immersive infinity rooms have mesmerised audiences around the world. The National Gallery of Victoria’s blockbuster exhibition sets out to rewrite the history books in its unveiling of her most recent infinity mirror work, My Heart is Filled to the Brim with Sparkling Light, together with nearly 200 other pieces by the artist, many never previously shown in Australia.

The earliest works in the show date from the 1930s and the most recent were made in 2024.

Kusama’s art has the rare ability to transform a personal nightmare into a vision of paradise – one that has no boundaries and defies definition through a rational intellect.

She translates her pumpkins, polka dots, river stones and flowers into a boundless universe of sensory experiences. There is no boundary between the animate and inanimate. Everything has a voice and spirit.

‘Lost in thought’

Kusama grew up on a plant nursery and flower and vegetable seed-propagating farm in rural Japan. In her autobiography, she recalls a childhood memory:

From a very young age I used to carry my sketchbook down to the seed-harvesting grounds. I would sit among the bed of violets, lost in thought.

[…]

One day I suddenly looked up to find that each and every violet had its own individual, human-like facial expression, and to my astonishment they were talking to me. The voices grew in number and volume, until the sound of them hurt my ears. I had thought that only human beings could speak, so I was surprised that the violets were using words to communicate. They were all like little human faces looking at me. I was so terrified that my legs began shaking.

Her life is punctuated with numerous hallucinations, bouts of self-doubt and depression and her desire to obliterate herself.

She reflected:

I fight pain, anxiety, and fear every day, and the only method I have found that relieved my illness is to keep creating art.

Since 1973 Kusama has lived voluntarily in a psychiatric hospital. On a daily basis, she travels to her studio to work on her art.

A profoundly moving exhibition

As with many of Kusama’s exhibitions, the show at the NGV is overwhelming. It occupies virtually the entire ground floor space of NGV International on St Kilda Road.

The immersive infinity rooms are a mind-bending experience. The recent one made in 2024, Infinity Mirrored Room – My Heart is Filled to the Brim with Sparkling Light, is mesmerising and having its international premiere here in Melbourne.

The earlier piece, The Hope of the Polka Dots Buried in Infinity Will Eternally Cover the Universe (2019), with its six-metre-high black tentacular forms covered in yellow polka dots is a highlight of the show, also premiering in Australia at this exhibition.

What are we to make of Kusama’s oeuvre as assembled in this huge and profoundly moving exhibition? What I did not expect from this exhibition was the sense of a prolonged cry of pain with the artist consciously seeking self-obliteration through her art.

Having experienced a traumatic childhood and being forced by her mother to spy on the infidelities of her father, Kusama expressed a revulsion to sex and in the 1960s and 1970s produced numerous works covered with flabby penises, including Ceremony for Suicide (1975–76).

Also having experienced hallucinations from an early age, by remaking these hallucinations in her art she could maintain her sanity. Although this strategy did not always work and she attempted suicide on a number of occasions.

Kusama has marketed herself as an extrovert character in her red wig, a little like Andy Warhol in his platinum wig.

Kusama appears in this guise in her video performance piece in this show, Song of a Manhattan suicide addict (2010).

Behind the extrovert glitter that runs throughout the exhibition, there is the sound of a suppressed scream of pain and the desire to lose identity by melting into infinity through the multiplicity of images endlessly repeated.

The Spirit of the Pumpkins Descended to the Heavens (2017) is one of her most obsessive and memorable pieces, where through a small viewing window you catch a glimpse of yourself endlessly repeated until you are completely obliterated and lost in infinity.

In Dots Obsession (1996/2015), you do not peer into a space but physically negotiate a space into which you are completely dissolved.

The idea is that we, or even our entire planet, is a mere dot lost within an infinity of dots.

With about ten immersive pieces in the NGV show with their kaleidoscopic infinity rooms and with very few people permitted to enter at any one moment, queues will be long and the clatter of the selfies deafening.

Yayoi Kusama is an exhibition that everyone will want to see; those who don’t will spend a lifetime regretting it.

Yayoi Kusama is at NGV International until April 21 2025.

Sasha Grishin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Everyone will want to see Yayoi Kusama at the NGV. Those who don’t will spend a lifetime regretting it – https://theconversation.com/everyone-will-want-to-see-yayoi-kusama-at-the-ngv-those-who-dont-will-spend-a-lifetime-regretting-it-237139

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jinwen Chen, PhD Graduate in Social Geography, Flinders University

What does it mean to live and age well?

My doctoral research sought to understand this from the perspective of LGBTQ+ people of diverse cultural backgrounds in Australia. I spoke with 14 people aged 50 and above about their hopes and fears of ageing.

Together, we discussed photographs they owned or have taken to represent their thoughts.

What they shared both extended and challenged existing perceptions of ageing well.

Confronting loneliness

Being alone, lonely and vulnerable is the opposite of ageing well.

Paulo told me:

I’m staging a dreadful idea of life, losing my partner, being there by myself, growing old and lonely and powerless.

Taken at the front porch of his and his partner’s home, Paulo’s black and white photograph captures the helplessness and loneliness of ageing alone without partner and loved ones.

This fear transcends gender, sexuality and culture, present in reports of elder abuse and socially isolated older people.

This fear is heightened by discrimination. Ninu* said

as a gender diverse person, I’m really worried about being treated respectfully as I age. Having my pronouns used, being mis-gendered.

Dion said:

It’d be wonderful to have an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander care provider who was LGBTIQ or open […] Because there’s nothing worse than [talking] about your partner and they say ‘oh, what’s her name?’ and I go ‘Steven’ [laughs].

The Royal Commission into Aged Care called for aged care policy and providers to be attentive to intersectional identities.

This means not seeing LGBTQIA+, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander, and culturally and linguistically diverse older people as three distinct groups, but understanding people can identify as belonging to more than one of these identities.

A time of change

Ageing is a time for transformation and growth.

As mopoke* said:

a lot of the words that are now in common use […] words like genderfluid, genderqueer, nonbinary […] We didn’t have these words growing up. When I look back, I’ve always considered myself nonbinary, but I never had the word for it.

Many I spoke to built a more authentic identity in the second half of their lives.

Stephanie’s photograph and poem powerfully illustrate this:

the mother of all lost souls knits another web of threads that say again I am here
I am me
let’s dance
and no
I’ll not linger in the seventh circle of hell for the sins of those who wrote the book
I’ll burn so hot you can warm the ice that set in your veins
and together we’ll build a new world
brick by brick

In the photograph, Stephanie looks intently and directly at the camera as if to bare her soul for everyone to see or to judge. The poem highlights her struggle when transitioning, having to rebuild everything but also emerging stronger and better.

Many participants embraced their queer identities in recent years, looking forward to growth in the years ahead.

Paulo described this prospect after finally moving to Australia to be with his partner:

it’s much healthier mentally and hopefully physically. I would say there’s a much more solid perspective of growth over here from what I’m envisaging so far than in Brazil.

Among the photographs Paulo sent is one of him in his cycling gear, enjoying a sunny day. A perfectly ordinary photograph, depicting a chance to finally lead a peaceful life away from homophobia and discrimination.

Finding family

Maintaining diverse kinship and support networks are crucial. Some participants had children and maintained close ties with their biological families. Some, like Daniel in this photograph, forged new ties through lifelong partnership:

After 25 years, we’re actually celebrating together. We don’t need […] the hassle of family Christmases with all that façade and that crap or anything like that. We really want to spend it the way we want to, and that’s with each other, where we want to. That’s just us going away for Christmas, just sharing our time with each other.

Others like Masaru*, who migrated alone to Australia, found non-biological, chosen networks of support crucial:

I don’t have any immediate family here, right? Just [my] partner and I. Only us. That is why we joined [a group] to expand our LGBTQ network […] They are like our chosen family.

Queer intergenerational and multicultural community, purposefully nurtured, keeps the people I spoke to hopeful about ageing.

Participants aspired to create community living or co-living where chosen and biological family could support them as they aged and needed increased support.

Ninu spoke of imagining:

an old folks’ home that was queer and was built […] so that you had your own space looking out but also had this veranda all around that connected.

Dion imagined “one big house” where his community could live together.

These co-living aspirations differ from current residential care, which moves people into places away from kin. They are not home care, where people are supported in their own homes. Instead, they relocate communities and kinship to support ageing in place.

Ageing well

So, what does ageing well mean? Seen through the lenses of LGBTQ+ people from diverse cultural backgrounds, it is more than eating, moving, thinking and connecting well.

It is about being able to create communities and homes with diverse kin, being treated respectfully and growing on your own terms.

As John succinctly shared, talking about his photograph of a sunset:

As a metaphor, we’re getting older, in the latter part of the cycle of our lives. If you think about it, a sunset is the latter part of the day going into night. But sunsets are magnificent, absolutely magnificent, and they shouldn’t be written off otherwise you miss scenes like this. It reminds me that okay, the best is still ahead. It’s not all over.

And it is about us as a society removing barriers and creating opportunities for this to happen, for older people, LGBTQ+, multicultural or otherwise.

*Some names have been changed.

Jinwen Chen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘The best is still ahead’: I spoke with LGBTQ+ people on ageing well. This is what they told me – https://theconversation.com/the-best-is-still-ahead-i-spoke-with-lgbtq-people-on-ageing-well-this-is-what-they-told-me-229803

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Margaret Brown, Adjunct Research Fellow, UniSA Justice and Society, University of South Australia

Men are killing themselves on the roads in large numbers. Currently, policymakers fail to recognise the different ways men and women use roads, and the resulting ways they are killed or injured.

The road toll is largely a male problem. In Australia in the 12 months to the end of October 2024, 1,295 people were killed on our roads, of whom 989 were male. Between January and September 2024, males were 81% of the drivers killed on the roads, but only 50% of the car passengers. Men were 96% of the motorcyclists and 90% of the cyclists killed on the roads.

Of the women who died in cars, only 52% were the driver (compared with 81% for men). The statistics for serious injuries on the roads are similar.

Even considering that men tend to drive more often and longer distances (and most cyclists and motorcyclists are men), these figures are startling. Here’s what contributes to this situation and how the roads can be made safer for everyone.

Different driving behaviour

The road fatality statistics do not show who was at fault in each case, but we should interpret them in conjunction with other research that shows men are more likely to speed, to drive under the influence of alcohol or drugs, and to not wear seatbelts. All these factors significantly contribute to deaths and injuries on the roads.

Women have high rates of distraction, such as texting or eating while driving, and have just as many minor injuries as men.

The difference in men’s and women’s behaviours that cause injury or death highlight the need for different driver education campaigns.

Advertising companies have long understood the link between traditional masculinity, powerful cars and dangerous driving.

On the one hand, many road safety advertisements have specifically targeted men. A memorable example is the Australian advertising campaign that cast doubt on the penis size of men who speed.

On the other hand, advertising primarily sells cars to men, depicting cars in terms of power, virility, toughness and ability to protect one’s family.

Governments fund advertising campaigns that discourage men from speeding and drink driving, yet their policies that prioritise keeping traffic moving only reinforce the dominance of cars and speed in our society.

For example, the South Australian and federal governments are putting billions of dollars into a North–South Corridor to ensure cars and trucks move freely through Adelaide’s suburbs. The New South Wales government is putting at least $20 billion into Westconnex projects in Sydney.

We shouldn’t forget the large number of Australian children killed and injured on our roads. Policymakers’ choices to prioritise car use and speed affects children’s lives, including limiting their freedom of movement.

Cars as tools of violence

Men also use cars in deliberate acts of violence.

Men are involved in 78% of suicides (and suspected suicides) using vehicles on the roads in Australia.

But we also know cars are used in acts of domestic violence and coercive control.

For example, Hannah Clarke was burned to death with her children in her car by her estranged husband in 2020.

Other examples involve men deliberately running over their partners, although they are often charged with causing death by dangerous driving so the deliberate violence is under-reported.

Cars have also been used by men in notable cases of violence against peaceful protesters and of drug-affected men deliberately driving into pedestrians.

Women’s fears about male violence more generally can also affect how they use transport. Many women do not catch public transport at night and some avoid walking because of safety concerns.

Yet women make up the majority of the poor.) and the elderly and are more reliant on public transport or walking.

The masculinity of motoring

All this is despite the fact that safety features such as seatbelts and airbags are designed for the average adult male body. Crash test dummies have traditionally been modelled on men. More research is needed with women’s bodies in mind to ensure women are equally protected when involved in an accident.

The love of large, fast cars is associated with our perceptions of masculinity. A lot of movies and car advertising encourage antisocial masculine behaviours, such as driving fast in powerful cars.

The traditional male dominance of the trucking industry and the masculine associations of large utes and four-wheel drives fuels this connection between masculinity, driving and speed (and sometimes drink driving).

State-supported car racing only entrenches these associations and encourages speeding.

In Australia, government policy fails to question this love of large, fast cars.

And it’s not just about keeping male drivers safe from themselves. Government policy also fails to prioritise the safety of children in car parks, the safety of women on public transport, or the right to mobility of older people or people with disability.

Australian governments could look to the example of some European cities such as Vienna, which has implemented a range of “gender-sensitive” city design ideas such as improving street lighting, prioritising pedestrians at traffic lights, adding seating, widening footpaths and removing barriers to using prams.

And they could look to Paris, which has lowered the city speed limit to 30km per hour to increase safety, benefit cyclists and respond to climate change.

It is time to acknowledge the associations between masculinity, power and speed are killing men and putting limits on the lives of women and children.

The author would like to acknowledge the assistance of research assistant Kate Leeson in preparing this article.

Margaret Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Many more men are dying on Australian roads than women. It’s time we addressed it – https://theconversation.com/many-more-men-are-dying-on-australian-roads-than-women-its-time-we-addressed-it-243477

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellow, researching Greco-Roman antiquity, The University of Melbourne

The Greek philosopher Plutarch of Chaeronea (1st-2nd century AD) observed that our lives are divided between relaxation and exertion.

For example, there are times when we are working and times when we are on holidays. He said rest was important:

Rest gives relish to labour.

In ancient Greece and Rome, many people also recognised that taking a holiday was an opportunity to restore the health of the body and mind.

However, not everyone was convinced holidays were healthy or even a good idea.

Take a holiday. It’ll do you good

In the ancient world, people sometimes went on holidays to try to improve their mental and physical condition. This usually meant moving from one climate to another, hoping this would help.

In one of his letters, the Roman writer and jurist Pliny the Younger (1st-2nd century AD) writes about how he tried to cure a man called Zosimus of an illness that made him spit blood.

Pliny sent him on a holiday to Egypt. Zosimus returned after a long holiday “with his health restored”.

However, Zosimus became sick again. So Pliny sent him on another holiday, this time to Gallia Narbonensis (in modern day southern France). Pliny tells us in his letter:

the air is healthy there and the milk excellent for treating this kind of [illness].

But watch where you go and how you get there

People also sought out or avoided specific places, depending on whether the places were considered healthy or not.

The physician Galen (about 129-216AD) tells us the water at Mytilene, on the Greek island of Lesbos, had qualities to treat various illnesses, including hydrops, a type of fluid build-up that leads to swelling:

This water is suitable both for those with hydrops and for the other swellings, being strongly drying. Similarly, it is also suitable for those who are obese, and particularly when someone also compels them to swim more in it quickly, and after bathing more, not to drink or eat immediately […].

Doctors also advised people to seek out or avoid specific modes of travel.

For instance, when treating headaches, the physician Caelius Aurelianus wrote about the benefits of sea voyages:

Sea voyages imperceptibly and gradually open the bodily pores, give rise to a burning effect by reason of the saltiness of the sea, and, by working a change, repair the bodily condition. We must try to arrange voyages to places where the climate is mild and the north wind prevails, conditions the opposite of those which can aggravate the disease.

But he advised against travelling on fresh water:

Voyages on rivers, bays, and lakes are considered unsuitable, since they cause the head to become moist and cold by reason of the exhalation from the earth.

It’s easy to overdo it on holiday

Not everyone in antiquity thought holidays were healthy. Some thought holidays could be harmful, because we sometimes drank or ate too much.

For example, the physician Galen complained about how people on holidays tended to make their health worse rather than better.

In his work Hygiene, Galen observed that people who are unwell because of their difficult work routine, such as slaves, needed the opportunity to restore their health by having a holiday.

But Galen noted these people did not always use holidays to restore their health because they used holidays to eat and drink too much:

They are able to make such provision for themselves during those days on which there is some public festival, when they free themselves from the services of a slave. But due to lack of control they not only do nothing to correct those things collecting deleteriously in the body, but they also fill themselves full of these things by eating badly.

The Greek writer Athenaeus (2nd-3rd century AD) mentions how “everyone […] eagerly awaits festivals”, because on festive holidays the tables are full of drink and food. Clearly, it was easy to eat and drink too much.

Holidays waste time and are only for the lazy

In the ancient world, people sometimes complained holidays were a waste of precious time.

The philosopher Seneca (1st century BC-1st century AD) said the religious practice of taking every Sunday away from work meant people wasted “a seventh of their life”.

Similarly, the writer Claudius Aelian (2nd-3rd century AD) said holidays were simply devised as an excuse to be lazy:

Look at you men – devising endless pretexts and excuses for idling!

How do you want to spend your time?

While many of us will use our holidays to rest and recover, others will need to, or choose to, work this festive season.

The ancients would have said that holidays present new possibilities, not just for our health but for other things too. For example, Pliny the Younger sometimes used holidays to study Greek. It’s hard to disagree with that.

Konstantine Panegyres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Holidays help us rest and recover. But Greeks and Romans weren’t always convinced – https://theconversation.com/holidays-help-us-rest-and-recover-but-greeks-and-romans-werent-always-convinced-244751

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Ryding, Postdoctoral research fellow, Deakin University

For wildlife, climate change is a bit like the “final boss” the protagonist faces in a video game: big, hulking and inescapable.

This formidable enemy has forced wildlife to alter where and how they live. Higher temperatures exert so much stress on wildlife that over generations, they are forced to change and adapt.

We wanted to better understand how this pattern of change was playing out in Australian birds.

Our two pieces of recent research identified that, in response to warming, more than 100 species of Australian birds have developed smaller bodies and bigger beaks over time.

Shape-shifting wildlife

When we talk about shape-shifting, we’re not talking about werewolves or Ant-Man. Rather, we are referring to body size getting smaller and appendages such as beaks, tails and limbs getting bigger.

This enables animals to shed excess heat more efficiently by providing more surface area to do so – something engineers know when designing radiators, for instance.

Just as the hot water pipes in radiators help dissipate internal heat through the periphery, bird beaks are perforated with blood vessels that transfer heat from the body’s core to the beak surface, where it is then lost to the environment.

This way, for both a radiator and a beak, increasing the surface area of the structure (while minimising the distance the heat has to travel from the core) maximises the heat loss.

The link between body shape and heat loss has led to the prediction that animals will change body shape over time, in response to climatic warming.

Three years ago, Deakin University researchers published a paper showing examples of such changes occurring in a handful of diverse species all across the world.

Now, we significantly expand on this with two recently published studies focusing on Australian birds. We identified decreasing body sizes and increasing beak sizes over time, in response to climatic warming. Combined, the studies include over 100 species of birds from across Australia.

What we did and what we found

Our studies used two different data sets and methods to detect shrinking and shape-shifting.

The first used an extraordinary dataset collected by community scientists of the Victorian Wader Study Group and the Australasian Wader Studies Group, who have been monitoring Australian shorebirds for nearly 50 years.

Their monitoring includes measurements such as bill length, wing length and body mass in more than 100,000 individual birds. The data allowed us to identify increasing beak sizes and decreasing body sizes in both resident and migratory species of shorebirds in northern and southern Australia.

For example, iconic migrants like red knots and sharp-tailed sandpipers have both increased beak size over the last 50 years.

The second dataset, collected by Deakin researchers, used 3D scans of museum specimens to measure the beak surface area of specimens from the past century.

Through this approach, more than 5,000 specimens were measured for beak surface area, which was supplemented by measurements of wing length.

The results showed the same pattern of bigger beaks and smaller body sizes were identified across a vast range of birds, all the way from ducks to songbirds.

For example, the chip-stealing silver gull and dazzling common bronzewing have both increased beak size over the past century.

Australia is heating up. The shape-shifting and shrinking that we see in birds indicate ways in which they may be adapting to cope with these higher temperatures.

Short-term weather versus long-term trends

One surprising aspect, reflected in both studies, is that short-term spells of excessive heat can cause responses in bird shape that contradict the long-term trends.

While body size decreases in response to shorter-term periods of higher temperature, bill size also shrank.

Since beak sizes increase over the long-term because of climatic warming, why would they decrease in response to short-term bursts of higher temperature?

Climatic warming does not only affect the temperature birds experience, but also their environment.

In an environment with high baseline temperatures, such as Australia, periods of high temperature may mean less food. This can hamper the growth of young birds.

In this way, both body and beak size would decrease after hot temperatures due to stunted growth as food gets more scarce.

And in short-term periods of extreme temperatures, having a big beak can be a liability. Hot air from the environment will actually move into the beak, causing the bird to heat up too much, with potentially fatal consequences.

Whatever their cause, the contrasting trends between short and long-term responses to hot environments show things are complex in a changing climate.

A question of survival

It might be tempting to view shrinking and shape-shifting as proof animals are successfully adapting to climate change.

However, that would be a premature conclusion: it shows us that some species are responding, but we don’t know how these changes impact their survival prospects.

Such questions are difficult to answer but form the focus of our current research.

Importantly, while both studies show bigger beaks and smaller bodies across species overall, both also show certain species are adapting more than others.

And many are not shrinking or shape-shifting at all in response to climate change.

Is that because these species don’t need to adapt, or because they can’t?

If the former, we can breathe a small sigh of relief. If the latter, we should be very concerned.

In the aftermath of COP29, the UN Climate Change Conference in November in Azerbaijan, discussion of how climate change impacts fauna should be high on everyone’s agenda.

Sara Ryding does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Matthew Symonds receives funding from the Australian Research Council (Discovery Program).

Alexandra McQueen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Shrinking wings, bigger beaks: birds are reshaping themselves in a warming world – https://theconversation.com/shrinking-wings-bigger-beaks-birds-are-reshaping-themselves-in-a-warming-world-240563

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kellie Tobin, Lecturer in Education – Applied Learning, Deakin University

The wait is finally over. Year 12 students around Australia are receiving their Year 12 results. Victorian and Queensland students got their ATARs last week, with other states and territories finding out this week.

This is a really significant time for young people after a long and challenging year. It’s also one with lots of emotions and questions.

So after receiving your results, the next steps can feel both exhilarating and daunting.

First, take a moment

Take a moment to process your feelings – whether it’s joy, surprise, relief or disappointment.

This will help you better understand yourself and how to respond in a considered and thoughtful way.

For example, if you are feeling sad, it might mean you need comfort and to take extra care of yourself at the moment.

But don’t forget to celebrate (or at least acknowledge) this significant milestone whatever the outcome. You’ve just finished school!

What if I’m not happy?

It is important to keep things in perspective. The ATAR may seem like a “portal to your future career” but it is just a number and one that can lose its relevance very quickly.

If you go on to university or other kind of study, those results and the experience you gain (including things such as internships) will become the key things employers want to know.

If in any doubt, ask your teachers or other adults in your life how relevant their Year 12 results are to them today. Their year 12 results are likely a distant memory.

As the Universities Admission Centre notes, “many students don’t go straight into their first preference in their first year of tertiary study”.

If you think your results won’t qualify you for your chosen course, there are plenty of back ups.

Maybe this involves doing a different course of study, maybe you take a gap year, apply for a job or do some vocational training.

You can also consider alternative pathways to uni. These can include applying for special consideration from a chosen university, summer programs or a course that uses a non-ATAR admissions process (such as a portfolio).

Also remember, the ATAR system may not accurately reflect all your diverse talents. It tends to favour students who perform well in exams.

Read more:
Disappointed by your year 12 result? A university expert and a clinical psychologist share advice on what to do next

Do I have to tell people what I got?

You’re in control of what you share with friends and family.
There is no obligation to share your ATAR, and it is entirely up to you who you share this information with.

Instead of asking your classmates direct questions like, “what’s your ATAR”, you may like to check in with “how are you feeling about your result?” first.

Read more:
‘Practically perfect’: why the media’s focus on ‘top’ Year 12 students needs to change

What if I want to change my uni preferences?

Getting your results can clarify your thinking about plans for next year and beyond.

You can re-order and add preferences through your university admissions centre account (the processes vary between states – in Victoria, the deadline to change preferences for the initial round of offers closed on Saturday).

Also check you are within individual university dates and deadlines. A word of caution before you delete preferences – some of these might have an early closing date and can’t be re-added.

Where can I go for more help or information?

University admissions centres have hotlines, seminars and events to support you if you need more advice.

University websites also have specific information for Year 12 students and offer help over the phone, online and in person.

You can also reach out to your school’s career teacher or your Year 12 coordinator.

And remember, it might feel like your ATAR is supposed to determine your entire life, but it really won’t. You are in charge of that.

Kellie Tobin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. You’ve just got your Year 12 results. What do you do now? – https://theconversation.com/youve-just-got-your-year-12-results-what-do-you-do-now-245680

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Myra Hamilton, Associate Professor, gender, ageing and care, University of Sydney

This article is part of The Conversation’s “Retirement” series where experts examine issues including how much money we need to retire, retiring with debt, the psychological impact of retiring and the benefits of getting financial advice.

By the time they retire, women typically have about one third less superannuation than men.

This can amount to more than $500,000 when wages and super are combined over their lifetime.

The gendered super gap has narrowed over the last few decades, as women have joined the workforce in increasing numbers and the superannuation system has matured.

But progress is too slow. If we keep tracking as we are, we can’t expect parity until 2070. So why is the gap so persistent?

Making super compulsory

For most of the 20th century, Australia’s retirement incomes system produced more equal outcomes because the age pension is not linked to a person’s lifetime earnings.

But the introduction of compulsory super in 1992 linked lifetime earnings and retirement income.

The gender super gap arises because women and men have different patterns of paid work and earning over their lifetimes. Women have 14% lower average weekly earnings than men. This is due to three factors:

• women are much more likely to have unpaid care responsibilities. As a result, they take career breaks, work fewer hours, or work in jobs incommensurate with their skills

• discrimination, bias and lack of workplace flexibility mean better pay and career outcomes for men and fewer opportunities for people to combine work and career with care responsibilities

• occupational segregation means women are concentrated in female-dominated industries, which tend to attract lower wages than male-dominated ones.

Over a lifetime, these factors limit women’s capacity to earn and to accumulate super.

On average, a woman in full-time permanent employment accumulates 17.7% less superannuation per year than a man in an equivalent role. That amounts to A$1,540 less per year. This annual shortfall compounds over time resulting in a wide gender super gap by the time women retire.

How does this work in practice?

The interruptions to work caused by providing unpaid care reduces people’s opportunities for accumulating superannuation. For example, having a child leads to substantial reductions in mothers’ workforce participation and earnings. Women’s earnings fall by an average of 55% in the first five years after entry into parenthood.

In contrast, research suggests men’s earnings are unchanged, or even increase, after they become parents. So parenthood has a much greater impact on a mothers’ super than a fathers’. One estimate suggests having a child reduces a woman’s superannuation balance at age 60 by about $50,000 and a man’s by $5,000.

It’s not just parenthood. One in 10 Australians provide care for an ageing relative or person with a disability or chronic illness. Women do most of this unpaid care. Unpaid carers often reduce their working hours, withdraw from work, or put their careers on hold. Among primary carers only 58% are in paid work.

According to a recent study, on average, by age 67, primary carers have lost $392,500 in lifetime earnings and $175,000 in super.

Some older workers, especially women, also care for their grandchildren. More than a quarter of grandparents of a child aged 13 or under provide care for the child in a typical week, usually while the parents work.

In a recent study, 70% of grandparents, mostly grandmothers, providing regular childcare reported they adjusted their work to accommodate it. One in three reported it had negative impacts on their financial security as they aged.

These factors compound over a lifetime. Many Australians provide care for multiple family members simultaneously, or at different times throughout their lives.

Women in employment are more likely to be in lower paid positions, and lower paid industries and occupations. Employees in feminised industries such as community services (including paid care workers) and retail have among the lowest median super balances, less than half of those of managers and professionals.

What is the solution?

The gender super gap reflects deep inequalities in the distribution of work, incomes and care responsibilities between women and men across their lives. How do we fix it?

Policy and public debate has focused on boosting women’s workforce participation. More women in work, means higher incomes and more saving, reducing the gender super gap, right?

Yes, up to a point and rates of women’s workforce participation are increasing.

But we also know in Australia, we have a preference for some family care of young children, and for care of adults with disability and older people in the community. This means many parents and carers will continue to have at least some interruptions to paid work, reducing their super contributions.

We also know when women are encouraged to enter paid work, care responsibilities are often “redistributed” to other women. When mothers enter or re-enter paid work it’s often grandmothers who step in, frequently reducing their incomes and super. For care of ageing parents it is often non-working female siblings that step in.

As the savings potential of one group of women increases, the savings potential of another decreases.

Where care can’t be redistributed to other women within the family, it is redistributed to paid early childhood education and care, disability support, and aged care services. All of these services are dominated by women. As a highly feminised industry, the caring roles are poorly remunerated, so those doing the care, while paid, are themselves limited to save enough super.

Boosting women’s workforce participation is an important step. But another is to pay super contributions to parents during the time they are off work providing childcare, as recently agreed by the federal government.

But we need an equivalent for other kinds of unpaid carers.

Even so, as long as care continues to circulate between different groups of women – older women, low paid women – and as long as care isn’t valued for the large social and economic contribution it makes, the gender super gap will persist.

To close the persistent gender gap, we need to go further, encouraging greater men’s involvement in care, and providing better recognition and remuneration of unpaid and paid care.

Myra Hamilton receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She sits on the NSW Carers Advisory Council, partners with Carers NSW on research projects, and is on the Board of Council of the Ageing NSW.

– ref. Being carers costs women more than $500,000 over a lifetime, leaving them with less in retirement than men – https://theconversation.com/being-carers-costs-women-more-than-500-000-over-a-lifetime-leaving-them-with-less-in-retirement-than-men-240323

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Wednesday’s mid-year budget update will downgrade company tax receipts  by $8.5 billion over the four years to 2027-28, and show “slippage’ in the bottom line in some years of the forward estimates, Treasurer Jim Chalmers says.

The company tax downgrade is the first since 2020 and reflects weaker  volumes in commodity sales  as the Chinese economy faces problems.
Mining exports will be downgraded by more than $100 billion  over the four years to 2027-28.

Chalmers said “the global economy is uncertain, the global outlook is unsettling and that’s weighing heavily on our economy”.

The budget bottom line is also being hit with extra spending in a range of areas.

The update will include an extra  $1.8 billion in payments to veterans’ “as we  clear the Liberals’ claims backlog.”

Chalmers said on Sunday the update included “a number of spending pressures in areas that are very important to us, which are putting substantial pressure on the budget”.

Apart from the spending on veterans, the treasurer  said there were a handful of other “very big estimates variations”, including in disaster funding, early childhood education, Medicare and some other areas.

“A combination of these things, slowing growth, a write‑down in mining exports, a write‑down in company taxes, combined with upward pressure on spending in these important areas means that there will be some slippage in some of the bottom lines over the forward estimates – even as we work very hard to get the bottom line in the current year into slightly better nick,” he said.

Chalmers also said he would announce the members of the two new Reserve Bank boards on Monday or soon after.

The opposition has accused him of wanting to stack the monetary policy board that will set interest rates.

Chalmers has offered all members of the existing Reserve Bank board a place on the monetary board and most will transition to it, although there will be room for some new members. This left a number of vacancies on the new governance board for him to also fill.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. More spending and weaker revenue hits budget bottom line in some years: Chalmers – https://theconversation.com/more-spending-and-weaker-revenue-hits-budget-bottom-line-in-some-years-chalmers-246008

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The remaining five members of the Bali Nine – Matthew Norman, Scott Rush, Martin Stephens, Si Yi Chen, and Michael Czugaj – arrived back in Australia from Indonesia on Sunday.

Despite earlier suggestions, and Indonesia’s preference, the men will not serve any further prison time here, because there is no legal framework to allow that. Australia does not have a prisoner swap agreement with Indonesia. The Australian government has given no quid pro quo in the negotiations for the return of the five.

Some weeks ago Special Minister of State Don Farrell said: “The proposal isn’t, as I understand it, to release these people. They would continue to serve their sentence, except they’re serving them in Australia”.

But in the end the Indonesian government was willing to accept the men’s undertaking they would continue their rehabilitation back in their home country.

The freeing of the five follows sustained representations from the Australian government including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese most recently to Indonesia’s new president Prabowo Subianto on the sidelines of APEC.

The men were sentenced to life imprisonment for their role in a heroin smuggling plot in 2005. Two of the “Bali nine” were executed, one died, and the only woman was freed some years ago.

In a statement Albanese, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Immigration Minister Tony Burke expressed “deep appreciation” to the Indonesian government for facilitating the men’s repatriation “on humanitarian grounds”.

“This reflects the strong bilateral relationship and mutual respect between Indonesia and Australia,” they said.

The government said the men would “have the opportunity to continue their personal rehabilitation and reintegration in Australia”.

They arrived on a commercial flight and have been taken to accommodation where they will have access to medical and other services to help them begin their new lives.

Albanese said he had “conveyed my personal appreciation” to the president.

“Australia respects Indonesia’s sovereignty and legal processes and we appreciate Indonesia’s compassionate consideration of this matter.

“The five men committed serious offences.

“Australia shares Indonesia’s concern about the serious problem illicit drugs represents. The government will continue to cooperate with Indonesia to counter narcotics trafficking and transnational crime,” Albanese said.

He said these Australians had served more than 19 years and “it was time for them to come home”.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Bali five return to Australia, and don’t have to serve more prison time – https://theconversation.com/bali-five-return-to-australia-and-dont-have-to-serve-more-prison-time-246009

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Smerdon, Assistant Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

Eighteen-year-old Indian prodigy Gukesh Dommaraju has become the new world chess champion, winning the final game of the title match after a dramatic blunder from the reigning champ, China’s Ding Liren.

Gukesh is now the youngest world champion in chess history, and the first Indian to hold the title since Vishwanathan Anand lost it to Magnus Carlsen in 2013.

Ding was gracious in defeat, saying

Considering [my play], it’s a fair result to lose in the end. I have no regrets. I will continue to play, and I hope I can show the strength like this time.

For Gukesh, the victory fulfilled a childhood dream. At the age of 11, in a video clip that later went viral, he told an interviewer “I want to be the youngest world chess champion.”

In a post-match press conference, Gukesh said spotting Ding’s blunder “was probably the best moment of my life”.

The road to the title

Ding became world champion in 2023 after an unlikely journey. He almost missed qualifying due to COVID lockdowns in China, and even then only made it into the championship match when Russian grandmaster Sergey Karjakin was disqualified over his support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ding is renowned for his kind demeanour and defensive skills, having once achieved a record-breaking 100-game unbeaten streak. However, after defeating Ian Nepomniachtchi to claim the champion’s title in 2023, he struggled both on and off the board. Plagued by fatigue and depression, he dropped to 23rd in the world rankings.

In stark contrast, Gukesh has been a force of nature in 2024. He led the Indian team to an historic gold medal at the biennial Chess Olympiad, personally achieving a performance rating of 3,056 – the highest at the event, winning the gold medal on the top board.

Drama on the board

The championship match – a series of 14 games held in Singapore and sponsored by Google – was marked by twists and turns. Ding was regarded as the clear underdog before play began, but he set the tone for tense battle when he pulled off a shock victory in game 1, playing black. In chess, the player with the white pieces has an advantage, so when games at the top level are not drawn it is usually the white player who comes out ahead.

Before game 14, Ding and Gukesh were tied with two wins each. It was widely expected the game would be a draw, setting the scene for a round of high-speed games to break the tie.

When the game began, Ding – playing white – achieved a small advantage out of the opening, but was unable to capitalise on it and instead settled for a technically equal endgame.

However, after four hours of play, just as the game seemed destined for a draw, Ding made a catastrophic blunder, handing Gukesh a decisive advantage.

On his 55th move, Ding offered a trade of rooks, attempting to simplify the position and steer the game towards a draw. However, this offered an opening for the young challenger to also trade off the remaining bishops and reach a winning king-and-pawn endgame. In the process, he secured his place as the 18th world chess champion.

Elite commentators such as former world champions Magnus Carlsen and Vladimir Kramnik and grandmasters Fabiano Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura criticised the quality of play throughout the match, with both players missing several key opportunities.

Following the final game, Carlsen labelled Ding’s fatal mistake “one of the worst blunders we’ve seen in a world championship.” Because the final position is a textbook chess endgame studied by all grandmasters in their youths, many expressed shock at the abrupt and anticlimactic conclusion to the sport’s most elite contest.

Yet the sheer drama of the three-week match, with its high stakes and emotional rollercoasters, kept millions of fans riveted across the globe.

The Carlsen question

Hanging over the world chess championship is the presence of 34-year-old Norwegian Magnus Carlsen, widely regarded as the greatest chess player of all time. (Disclosure: I once played a drawn game with Carlsen, at the 2016 Chess Olympiad.) In 2022, citing a lack of motivation, Carlsen relinquished the title of world champion.

However, Carlsen continues to play chess, and he is still number one in the International Chess Federation (FIDE) rankings. His presence casts doubt on the idea that the winner of the championship is “the best player in the world”.

Gukesh’s victory, while historic, doesn’t resolve this debate. With a chess rating of 2,777 after this match, he will remain outside the world’s top three by rating. (Chess ratings are based on the Elo system, a complicated method for calculating the relative skill levels of players based on their previous wins and losses.)

Remarkably, he is not even the highest-rated Indian. His 21-year-old compatriot, Arjun Erigaisi, is rated 2,801.

Yet Gukesh’s win may signal something larger: a generational shift, and the emergence of a new star in the chess universe.

In his post-match press conference, Gukesh acknowledged that “becoming the World Champion doesn’t mean that I’m the best player in the world – there’s obviously Magnus”.

Carlsen himself remarked that Gukesh had shown the potential to “establish himself as the number-two player in the world”, before adding “and who knows, maybe in the not-too-distant future, the number one”.

What’s next for chess?

The triumph of the 18-year-old Gukesh represents the dawn of a new era. His victory also underscores the growing influence of India – the gold medallists for both the Open and Women’s competitions at the recent chess Olympiad – in global chess.

For Ding, the defeat is a heartbreaking end to a short, challenging reign. Yet his resilience in reaching this stage, despite his personal struggles, has not gone unnoticed by fans around the world.

The championship itself, as a showdown between players from China and India – two nations with over a billion people each – has captured global attention and highlighted the game’s surging popularity. Chess has experienced a renaissance in recent years, fuelled by the pandemic-induced shift to online play and pop-culture events such as the Netflix drama The Queen’s Gambit.

Platforms such as Chess.com and Lichess have turned the game into a spectator sport, with live commentary from grandmasters such as Carlsen and Nakamura drawing huge audiences. For India, Gukesh’s victory could ignite a new wave of chess enthusiasm, cementing the country’s status as a rising superpower in the game.

As chess fans celebrate the rise of a prodigy, the future of the sport looks brighter than ever.

David Smerdon is a chess grandmaster who has represented Australia at eight Chess Olympiads.

– ref. Teenage prodigy Gukesh D defeats Ding Liren to become youngest world chess champion – https://theconversation.com/teenage-prodigy-gukesh-d-defeats-ding-liren-to-become-youngest-world-chess-champion-245847

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Austin, Senior Lecturer in Theatre, The University of Melbourne

There are many great traditions of Christmas performances, mostly European and American in origin, where the occurrence of Christmas in deep winter means it is more likely that people will want to be inside watching a show.

Christmas pantomimes emerging from the 16th century Commedia dell’ Arte in Italy have been reimagined across British stages each year and are designed for enthusiastic audience participation.

Christmas special cabaret-style events, often streamed on television, usually feature a blend of comedy sketches and Christmas songs hosted by a celebrity (see Sabrina Carpenter’s A Nonsense Christmas on Netflix right now for a good example).

In Australia, we have the annual tradition of Christmas carol concerts, from local outdoor community events to the nationally televised Carols by Candlelight.

This year, Malthouse Theatre brings audiences a new kind of Christmas variety show created by the exceptional artistic team of Fat Fruit (Sarah Ward and Bec Matthews) and Susie Dee.

F Christmas is a camp Christmas pageant, taking a playful but uncomfortable aim at the corporate architecture that underpins Christmas and bringing a queer, feminist and highly subversive perspective to advent cheer.

The show questions the great myth of yuletide togetherness and exposes the tensions underpinning many of our Christmas traditions, and the harm these traditions can perpetuate for people who sit outside the status quo.

Naughty, often naked, deeply wild

The show begins in the foyer, with a ridiculous Santa photo set up overseen by a rowdy punk elf wearing a sleigh costume (Nicci Wilks). A PVC-clad version of the Elf on the Shelf (Seth Sladen) congratulates me when I collect my ticket from the box office saying I am, indeed, on the naughty list.

Inside the theatre, the striking set by Romanie Harper is a rich glittering spectacle of red and green with a thoughtful but punchy approach to sustainability.

An archway stretches across the space, adorned with dead Christmas trees (presumably from last year – they are VERY dead), discarded wrapping paper and tinsel and broken bits of Christmas wreaths and baubles.

A red and green skip to the side of the stage is full of more Christmas debris, and used from time to time throughout the show for the performers to discard props and emerge from the bin itself. The band, led by Matthews, is also on stage.

Our punk elf from the foyer kicks things off, descending from a rope and letting us know we are not here for a traditional Christmas celebration and that the clue to the naughty, often naked, deeply wild show was in the name – so we really shouldn’t be surprised.

What follows is an eclectic mix of sketches. We have solo circus tricks with hoops and rings by Circus Oz alumni Jess Love. The fabulous Dale Woodbridge-Brown is outrageously funny in a routine as a small boy too naughty to get any presents this year. A range of ensemble routines are fabulously choreographed by Gabi Barton.

Throughout, the show is anchored by two hosts, Andrew (John Marc Desengano) and Geraldine (Ward) who take the familiar and make it strange. They appear in suits and frocks visibly held together by hair clips, taking aim at the Carols by Candlelight tradition and its alarmingly white and gendered context.

Raucous solidarity

Throughout the beautifully choreographed chaos, tricks, dancing, nudity and laughter, the message of the show resounds. Christmas is a tricky time, and right now the requirement to celebrate is harder on some than on others.

The show mentions the cost of living crisis and how that can come into painful acuteness for people during Christmas. It references the ongoing climate catastrophe (in one memorable moment, a despondent polar bear is wheeled across the stage as Ward sings a stunning dirge). It reminds us not all family togetherness is happy, or even safe.

In a stunningly moving tribute to the children who have died from genocide and war, and later, the appearance of cardboard cut-outs of Trump, Elon Musk and Peter Dutton on stage as part of a transgressive nativity scene, the show also reminds us we are in a time of deep political and global unrest.

Toward the end of the show, Ward dedicates the performance to her brother, who, she explains, won’t be at Christmas this year. She sends love to all those for whom someone will be missing at their Christmas table.

You probably know someone who needs to see this show. It may even be you. I was grateful for the opportunity to experience the raucous solidarity of F Christmas with my fellow audience members, and to laugh and reflect as the silly season descends and the hectic pace of this time of the year takes over.

F Christmas is a joyous gift at the time of year when we need it most. I hope it becomes an annual Christmas tradition to provide a contrast to some of our more conservative traditions.

F Christmas is at Malthouse Theatre, Melbourne, until December 15.

Sarah Austin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Naughty, often naked, deeply wild: F Christmas is a joyous gift at the time we need it most – https://theconversation.com/naughty-often-naked-deeply-wild-f-christmas-is-a-joyous-gift-at-the-time-we-need-it-most-245928

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica C Lai, Professor of Commercial Law, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

From patents relating to mānuka, fake Māori souvenirs being sold in Aotearoa New Zealand, or the use of Māori designs on bedspreads sold online, the misappropriation and commercialisation of indigenous knowledge and culture has long been a problem.

But two new treaties, adopted in 2024 by member states of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), include provisions to address some interests of Indigenous peoples.

The Treaty on Intellectual Property, Genetic Resources and Associated Traditional Knowledge (GRT) relates to patents and received widespread coverage in the media when it was adopted in May.

The Riyadh Design Law Treaty (DLT), which relates to design rights, was adopted in November.

Patents versus design rights

Compared to the fanfare that followed the adoption of the GRT, the DLT has flown largely under the radar.

This is possibly because patents generally get more attention than design rights. Patents protect things like pharmaceuticals and vaccines, and directly affect people’s access to them.

Design rights usually only protect the way something looks, but not the thing itself.

Furthermore, the purpose of the DLT is to create consistency in processes and procedures around applying for design rights in different jurisdictions. This is not “sexy”.

In fact, the GRT is also purely procedural. Both treaties are about disclosures that applicants must make, which will then be used to determine if an invention is novel or inventive, or a design is new or original.

What do the treaties do?

Hailed as “protecting” Indigenous peoples’ rights, the GRT introduces a “disclosure of origin” requirement to patent law.

Contracting parties are to require patent applicants to disclose the country of origin or source of genetic resources and related traditional knowledge that their invention is based on.

This is supposed to deal with “biopiracy” – when researchers or research organisations take and use biological resources from less wealthy countries or marginalised peoples, without the free and prior informed consent of the source community. Biopiracy has become an issue both globally and in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Despite how it has been framed, the GRT does not actively protect Indigenous peoples’ rights.

Instead, it defensively prevents others from patenting Indigenous peoples’ genetic resources and associated knowledge – but this shouldn’t be happening anyway.

The GRT represents a watered-down agreement that was “palatable” to developed nations with strong patent interests. Member states such as the United States, United Kingdom and Switzerland, opposed stronger disclosure of origin requirements on the basis it would hinder innovation.

Similarly, compromise was also made to achieve a comparable provision in the DLT.

The DLT states that contracting parties may require that applicants for design rights disclose “information on traditional cultural expressions and traditional knowledge, of which the applicant is aware, that is relevant to the eligibility for registration of the industrial design”.

If implemented, this could potentially prevent the registration of designs that are not new or original in relation to mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge), or of designs considered to be contrary to morality due to te ao Māori (Māori worldview).

The two disclosure requirements are similar, though the GRT mandates a disclosure requirement, whereas the DLT permits it.

But while the official record shows there were six New Zealand delegates registered for the final negotiations of the GRT, New Zealand did not register anyone for the final negotiations of the DLT.

Missed opportunities?

A further likely explanation for the tense negotiations of the GRT (compared to the adoption of the DLT) is that patents are considered to be the most powerful and valuable form of intellectual property.

Patents are seen as being about invention, innovation and industry. Patents contribute to GDP and economies, and are seen as “must haves”.

Designs are seen differently, as evidenced by WIPO’s announcement of the adoption of the DLT. WIPO Director General Daren Tang described the treaty as being about

designs and designers and the gift they have in using color, form, shape, beauty and aesthetics to delight our senses, enrich our lives, promote our heritage and transform our culture.

Designs are considered to be only about appearance. Designs are associated with luxury. They are viewed as being about the “nice to haves”.

Perhaps this differentiation sounds convincing. But the vast majority of patents are never commercialised. At the same time, it is not difficult to think of commercially valuable designs, from Eames chairs to Crocs.

In some jurisdictions, design rights can protect digital designs, including graphical user interfaces.

So, while the GRT was widely lauded as a way forward, a disclosure requirement in design law could also prevent aspects of cultural misappropriation. As design rights are increasing in importance, they should not be ignored.

Many thanks to Sarah Barclay for her thoughts on an earlier version of this piece.

Jessica C Lai receives funding from Te Apārangi The Royal Society of New Zealand as a Rutherford Discover Fellow.

– ref. A new treaty could prevent some misappropriation of Māori and Indigenous design – and shouldn’t be ignored – https://theconversation.com/a-new-treaty-could-prevent-some-misappropriation-of-maori-and-indigenous-design-and-shouldnt-be-ignored-245025

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natalie Sheard, Researcher and Lawyer, La Trobe University

Can artificial intelligence (AI) tell whether you’re happy, sad, angry or frustrated?

According to technology companies that offer AI-enabled emotion recognition software, the answer to this question is yes.

But this claim does not stack up against mounting scientific evidence.

What’s more, emotion recognition technology poses a range of legal and societal risks – especially when deployed in the workplace.

For these reasons, the European Union’s AI Act, which came into force in August, bans AI systems used to infer emotions of a person in the workplace – except for “medical” or “safety” reasons.

In Australia, however, there is not yet specific regulation of these systems. As I argued in my submission to the Australian government in its most recent round of consultations about high-risk AI systems, this urgently needs to change.

A new and growing wave

The global market for AI-based emotion recognition systems is growing. It was valued at US$34 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach US$62 billion by 2027.

These technologies work by making predictions about a person’s emotional state from biometric data, such as their heart rate, skin moisture, voice tone, gestures or facial expressions.

Next year, Australian tech startup inTruth Technologies plans to launch a wrist-worn device that it claims can track a wearer’s emotions in real time via their heart rate and other physiological metrics.

inTruth Technologies founder Nicole Gibson has said this technology can be used by employers to monitor a team’s “performance and energy” or their mental health to predict issues such as post-traumatic stress disorder.

She has also said inTruth can be an “AI emotion coach that knows everything about you, including what you’re feeling and why you’re feeling it”.

Emotion recognition technologies in Australian workplaces

There is little data about the deployment of emotion recognition technologies in Australian workplaces.

However, we do know some Australian companies used a video interviewing system offered by a US-based company called HireVue that incorporated face-based emotion analysis.

This system used facial movements and expressions to assess the suitability of job applicants. For example, applicants were assessed on whether they expressed excitement or how they responded to an angry customer.

HireVue removed emotion analysis from its systems in 2021 following a formal complaint in the United States.

Emotion recognition may be on the rise again as Australian employers embrace artificial intelligence-driven workplace surveillance technologies.

Lack of scientific validity

Companies such as inTruth claim emotion recognition systems are objective and rooted in scientific methods.

However, scholars have raised concerns that these systems involve a return to the discredited fields of phrenology and physiognomy. That is, the use of a person’s physical or behavioural characteristics to determine their abilities and character.

Emotion recognition technologies are heavily reliant on theories which claim inner emotions are measurable and universally expressed.

However, recent evidence shows that how people communicate emotions varies widely across cultures, contexts and individuals.

In 2019, for example, a group of experts concluded there are “no objective measures, either singly or as a pattern, that reliably, uniquely, and replicably” identify emotional categories. For example, someone’s skin moisture might go up, down or stay the same when they are angry.

In a statement to The Conversation, inTruth Technologies founder Nicole Gibson said “it is true that emotion recognition technologies faced significant challenges in the past”, but that “the landscape has changed significantly in recent years”.

Infringement of fundamental rights

Emotion recognition technologies also endanger fundamental rights without proper justification.

They have been found to discriminate on the basis of race, gender and disability.

In one case, an emotion recognition system read black faces as angrier than white faces, even when both were smiling to the same degree. These technologies may also be less accurate for people from demographic groups not represented in the training data.

Gibson acknowledged concerns about bias in emotion recognition technologies. But she added that “bias is not inherent to the technology itself but rather to the data sets used to train these systems”. She said inTruth is “committed to addressing these biases” by using “diverse, inclusive data sets”.

As a surveillance tool, emotion recognition systems in the workplace pose serious threats to privacy rights. Such rights may be violated if sensitive information is collected without an employee’s knowledge.

There will also be a failure to respect privacy rights if the collection of such data is not “reasonably necessary” or by “fair means”.

Workers’ views

A survey published earlier this year found that only 12.9% of Australian adults support face-based emotion recognition technologies in the workplace. The researchers concluded that respondents viewed facial analysis as invasive. Respondents also viewed the technology as unethical and highly prone to error and bias.

In a US study also published this year, workers expressed concern that emotion recognition systems would harm their wellbeing and impact work performance.

They were fearful that inaccuracies could create false impressions about them. In turn, these false impressions might prevent promotions and pay rises or even lead to dismissal.

As one participant stated:

I just cannot see how this could actually be anything but destructive to minorities in the workplace.

Natalie Sheard has previously received funding from La Trobe University (PhD scholarship). She is currently working at LexisNexis.

– ref. Tech companies claim AI can recognise human emotions. But the science doesn’t stack up – https://theconversation.com/tech-companies-claim-ai-can-recognise-human-emotions-but-the-science-doesnt-stack-up-243591

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney

The 14th season of Australia’s major domestic men’s Twenty20 (T20) cricket competition, the Big Bash League (BBL), starts on Sunday.

Its rise is probably the biggest change in Australian cricket since Kerry Packer’s World Series Cricket revolution in 1977–79.

But unlike Packer’s breakaway competition, this latest revolution began overseas, with the emergence of T20 cricket in England and the Indian Premier League (IPL) – competitions that shook up world cricket both in terms of the sport itself and the economics.

The BBL’s early years

The BBL began in 2011–12, partly in response to developments beyond our shores.

But it was also a response to local conditions in Australian cricket.

Before the BBL, fans’ focus was the Australian team and the Sheffield Shield – high quality cricket that often didn’t draw huge crowds. They didn’t have the legions of fans following them like in the mega domestic Australian winter sports, the Australian Football League (AFL) and the National Rugby League (NRL).

The BBL started with states, like the Sheffield Shield and 50-over competitions. But domestic cricket needed professional clubs and rivalries, so the Melbourne Stars, Melbourne Renegades, Sydney Sixers, Sydney Thunder, Adelaide 36ers, Perth Scorchers, Hobart Hurricanes and Brisbane Heat were born.

The BBL started with a bang.

It was fresh, it was exciting and attracted huge stars like the late great Shane Warne and imports like West Indian big hitter Chris Gayle and South African-born Englishman Kevin Pietersen.

The early matches steered away from the genteel nature of longer-format cricket, featuring match-day entertainment, music, eye-catching uniforms and other gimmicks. Importantly, the cricket was attacking, entertaining and high quality – the formula applied successfully by Packer a generation before.

There were initial fears that its popularity could wipe out Test cricket, but these concerns were exaggerated.

TV broadcasters, unsure at first, jumped on board. In 2013, Network 10 paid $A100 million for BBL rights over five years, marking the channel’s first foray in elite cricket coverage.

Network 10’s BBL coverage became a regular feature of Australian summers, attracting an average audience of more than 943,000 people nationally in 2014–15, including a peak of 1.9 million viewers for the final between the Perth Scorchers and Sydney Sixers.

Ten was pretty happy the following season when the BBL attracted an average audience of 1.13 million for each match in Australia, an 18% increase. The final peaked at 2.24 million viewers – the first time ratings for a BBL match crossed the two million mark.

In 2018, BBL coverage was taken over by the Seven Network on free to air in conjunction with Fox Cricket.

The six-year deal was extended in 2024, with Foxtel and Seven West Media paying $1.5 billion, as part of a package that included Test cricket, women’s international matches as well as BBL and Women’s BBL (WBBL).

Crowd-wise, the average attendance started at 17,749 spectators per game in 2011–12, peaked at 30,122 in the amazing season of 2016–17, slumped to a COVID-affected 7,371 in 2021–22 before bouncing back to a healthy 21,505 in 2023–24.

The biggest crowd for a BBL game was 80,883 at the MCG on January 2, 2016 for the Melbourne derby between the Stars and Renegades.

A mid-inning slump

After a strong first decade, the BBL hit a slump.

It was partly COVID-related, which affected all professional sports, but there were signs even before then.

There were complaints about too many games saturating the summer as the number of regular season matches grew from 28 in the first BBL to 61 in 2019-20.

The timing of the schedule meant star players were not available for finals, often due to international duties. There was a lack of marquee international stars (partly due to travel-related COVID restrictions) and also a view that players were just transactional rather than loyal to a club or state.

This was partly due to cricketers’ ability to play in T20 tournaments globally – in India, England, the Caribbean, South Africa and the UAE.

But it was also a domestic matter, as players switched teams regularly. For instance, Dan Christian played for four BBL teams: the Sydney Sixers, Brisbane Heat, Hobart Hurricanes and Melbourne Renegades, as well as playing overseas.

Accordingly, Cricket Australia looked to revive and recharge the BBL, by reducing the number of games which allowed more flexibility for Australian Test players to be available for finals.

Ahead of BBL 13, the season was shortened from 61 games to 43 at the time Foxtel and Seven extended the TV rights deal to 2031 (worth around $1.5 billion).

They also started playing WBBL matches before men’s games to maximise exposure for the women’s game. And they took the game to regional venues like Geelong and Coffs Harbour.

What might the future hold?

What’s next? As with the AFL and NRL, expansion may be on the horizon.

There’s talk of possible expansion to Canberra, the Gold Coast and even New Zealand to make the BBL a Trans-Tasman competition.

There’s also likely to be further tweaks with new rules to keep the game fresh and exciting and continued efforts to attract star overseas players while still nurturing local talent.

The changes to the BBL are likely to be more evolutionary than revolutionary though.

Its biggest challenge may be trying to preserve its place in an increasingly hectic international cricket calendar.

Tim Harcourt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How is the Big Bash League faring after 14 years of ups and downs – and what’s next? – https://theconversation.com/how-is-the-big-bash-league-faring-after-14-years-of-ups-and-downs-and-whats-next-241255

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of Waikato

Canada and New Zealand share an important approach to gun control: both countries view firearms as a privilege, not a right.

The similarities don’t end there, either. Both have strong and legitimate firearms-owning communities, and both have problems with self-harm and rapidly changing technologies.

They also face similar threats, including young people and violent extremism, and rising firearm violence in general. Both have a tragic history of mass shootings.

But both can learn from each other. Canada’s recent Mass Casualty Commission, which followed an armed rampage in Nova Scotia in 2020 that left 22 people dead, highlighted the dangers of ignoring warning signs of gender-based violence and the need for better community policing.

Similarly, New Zealand’s royal commission inquiry into the 2019 Christchurch terror attacks has lessons for Canada around the challenges of identity-based extremism.

With amendments to New Zealand’s firearms control laws before parliament now, here are five broad aspects of the Canadian experience New Zealand policymakers should consider.

A robust gun registry

One thing made clear to me from visits to multiple Canadian police agencies was the need for New Zealand’s gun registration system to rise above politics.

Registration of restricted firearms has been a long-standing practice in Canada. But following the horrific École Polytechnique massacre in 1989, when 14 women were killed, the registry was extended to include “long guns” (rifles and other non-pistol types).

But budget problems and debates about its merits saw the long-gun registry canned in 2012 – despite police agencies accessing records over 17,000 times a day.

The loss now makes it harder for police to assess risks when responding to calls, distinguish between legal and illegal firearms, trace the source of registered firearms found at crime scenes, and identify and return stolen and lost firearms to their owners.

The lesson for New Zealand, which is currently rebuilding a comprehensive firearms registry, is that a transparent and efficient registry is essential for the safety of the public and frontline police officers.

Mandatory reporting

The province of Quebec is unique not only for its language and culture, but for its approach to firearms regulation. It is also bucking wider trends, with a violent gun crime rate below other provinces.

Quebec has invested the equivalent of more than NZ$100 million in Operation Centaur, a dedicated initiative between law enforcement, community agencies and researchers, focused on reducing gun violence.

The province maintains its own comprehensive firearms register. But it also introduced legislation known as “Anastasia’s Law” after the death of 18-year-old Anastasia De Sousa in a shooting incident.

The law created gun-free zones, prohibiting them from all educational institutions and public transport.

Medical and other professionals concerned about the behaviour of someone with access to a firearm can report them to authorities without fear of repercussion. And, unlike in New Zealand, it became mandatory for health providers to report all firearms injuries to the authorities.

Finally, the law says anyone responsible for a shooting club or range “must immediately report to the police any behaviour of a member or user with a firearm that may compromise the safety of that person or another person”.

As New Zealand writes new laws around its gun ranges and clubs, Anastasia’s Law has particular relevance. The gunman responsible for De Sousa’s death was an active member of a gun club prior to the attack, as was the Christchurch terrorist before his attack.

Gang pathologies

Gang members are responsible for 23% of all firearms-related crime in New Zealand. Canada, too, has seen more firearms violence in public spaces linked to gangs, more projectiles being shot, and younger ages of gang members involved.

But the two countries are approaching the problem differently. New Zealand is pursuing a “big stick” policy, banning gang patches, dispersing gatherings of gang members in public places, and prohibiting firearms from being licenced to gang members.

Canada, however, has committed significant and dedicated funding to understanding and potentially breaking the links between gangs and guns.

A 2022 Canadian parliamentary report shows a focus on strong laws and stiff penalties for gun violence. But it also aims to establish evidential and systemic explanations for the problem and its cultural context, and to encourage greater cooperation between public safety agencies.

Within this, there is a strong emphasis on focused deterrence programmes to divert or exit young adults from gang life and violence before it’s too late.

‘Ghost gun’ regulation

So-called “ghost guns” are a looming crisis: privately and anonymously manufactured firearms, untraceable and often undetectable by security systems, including 3D-printed guns.

New Zealand has really only just begun to address the problem with new but somewhat generic laws governing “offences relating to illegal manufacturing of certain arms items”.

The Canadians have gone further, with recent changes to firearms law making it a crime to access or download manufacturing plans or graphics. Knowingly sharing or selling such data online for manufacturing or trafficking is also a crime, with penalties of up to ten years in prison.

The new rules also require licences to import or acquire parts and accessories that could be used to illegally manufacture firearms.

Limits on pistols

Canada has just introduced a national freeze on the sale, purchase and transfer of handguns. Also, as a general rule, the maximum magazine capacity for most handguns is ten cartridges.

The same applies in Australia, but New Zealand has neither a freeze on handguns nor maximum magazine capacity rules.

As the government rewrites firearms law, it can learn from its Commonwealth cousin’s experiences – both good and bad – to help craft robust rules that make everyone safer.

The author thanks Clementine Annabell for assisting with the research for this article.

Alexander Gillespie is a recipient of a Borrin Foundation Justice Fellowship to research comparative best practice in the regulation of firearms. He is also a member of the Ministerial Arms Advisory Group. The views expressed here are his own and not to be attributed to either of these organisations. He has submitted on this subject to the select committee examining reform of part 6 of the Arms Act.

– ref. From ‘ghost guns’ to gangs, 5 lessons from Canada for NZ firearms reform – https://theconversation.com/from-ghost-guns-to-gangs-5-lessons-from-canada-for-nz-firearms-reform-245553

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Wood, Professor, epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases, UNSW Sydney

As the holiday season approaches, COVID cases are rising again in Australia, particularly in Victoria and Tasmania.

This is now the fourth year running with a summer rise of COVID, and the second year with a roughly six-month gap between waves.

Will we see a wave every six months from now on?

And what can we expect from COVID this Christmas?

Cases are rising

Nationally, we’re seeing more indicators of increasing COVID infection, such as rises in the number of reported cases and the percentage of PCR tests that come back positive. We’re also seeing more outbreaks in aged care.

But the extent to which this is a wave varies markedly around the nation.

For instance, in Victoria notified cases are almost as high now as during the winter peak.

It’s a similar story in Tasmania, where notified cases in late November were as high as its winter peak.

However in Western Australia, notified cases, hospitalisations and detection of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) in wastewater only show small rises so far.

New South Wales and Queensland have seen a slow rise in COVID indicators since the beginning of October, with similar behaviour in South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. We don’t have clear figures for the Northern Territory.

So in summary, all jurisdictions for which we have data have seen a rise in COVID activity but only Tasmania and Victoria have seen a clear surge or wave.

Which variants are circulating?

Spread of the COVID variant XEC seems to be causing the recent rise in cases. Estimates suggest XEC has risen from 10% to 60% of circulating SARS-CoV-2 in the past two months.

XEC is a recombinant variant, meaning it’s a hybrid of two existing variants. In this case it’s derived from two distinct descendants (KP.3.3 and KS.1.1) of the JN.1 variant that spread worldwide last Christmas.

Recent preliminary laboratory evidence suggests XEC is better at evading our antibody responses than the KP.3 variants that predominated until recently.

XEC is better at spreading than other current variants, but it’s not so fast spreading as JN.1 last summer.

So can XEC cause a wave? Yes, but that depends on a number of factors other than just out-competing other variants. This includes the scale of previous COVID waves and resulting short-term increases in population immunity.

For example, the United Kingdom saw a significant COVID wave this northern hemisphere autumn. Despite the growing proportion of XEC infections, cases have continued to decline.

Will we get waves every 6 months from now on?

This leads us to back to how often we should expect COVID waves in the future.

Australia entered its Omicron period from 2022, and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to circulate to this day. In 2022 we had four waves (except for WA, which avoided the first one), in 2023 we had two waves and in 2024 at least in jurisdictions such as Victoria, there have been two clear waves.

Epidemic theory predicts that the spacing of waves depends on the inherent transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, how quickly immunity is lost, as well as seasonal changes in transmission.

Respiratory viruses usually spread more easily in winter in temperate climates, perhaps because we spend more time indoors. This seasonality in transmission usually leads to a single winter peak for viruses like influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (or RSV).

However, we haven’t seen that yet for COVID. Instead, we see influential viral mutations crop up every few months. These can lead to sudden increases in transmission, enough to start new waves in summer and winter.

This suggests the potential for two waves a year continues. However, as seasonal factors tend to increase transmission of respiratory viruses in winter, we can generally expect winter waves to be larger than summer ones.

How about Christmas 2024?

Australia-wide we can expect a moderate level of COVID circulation over the holiday period. Activity is currently highest in Victoria and Tasmania but recent Victorian surveillance data indicates the wave may have peaked.

In other jurisdictions, activity is lower but appears to be slowly increasing. For instance Queensland has seen a slow steady rise since the beginning of October.

Overall, though, there probably won’t be as much COVID around at Christmas as either of the past two years.

How do I protect myself and others?

Although cases are expected to be lower this Christmas than in recent years, you can still protect yourself and others.

For instance, if you’re catching up with elderly relatives or people with weak immune systems, be cautious if you have respiratory symptoms. Good quality masks and using RAT tests are still an option. And regardless of your symptoms, gathering in a well ventilated room (or outside) will reduce your chance of infection and infecting others.

Updated COVID boosters matched to the JN.1 variant should now be available, and you can check if you’re eligible. Boosters protect against severe disease for about six months but provide more limited protection against infection and onward transmission.

James Wood receives funding from the NHMRC for research on modelling and surveillance relating to respiratory pathogens. He previously received funding from the WHO and state and federal health departments between 2020 and 2023. He is a voting member of ATAGI.

Alexandra Hogan receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. She has previously received funding from the World Health Organization for research relating to COVID-19. Alexandra Hogan is currently a member of the WHO Immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC).

– ref. Will we have a COVID wave, spike or blip this Christmas? It depends where you live – https://theconversation.com/will-we-have-a-covid-wave-spike-or-blip-this-christmas-it-depends-where-you-live-245281

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitlyn Forster, Associate Lecturer, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney

While we’re busy preparing for Christmas, many Australian native plants and animals are also busy – growing, flowering and raising their young. What better time to celebrate this explosion of life?

Let’s set aside the holly, snowmen and reindeer this Christmas and decorate our homes with some of Australia’s most remarkable species instead.

Drawing on themes from our research on wildlife, ecology and astronomy, we’ve prepared this handy guide to an Aussie festive season.

It’s not too late to get crafty and deck the halls with Christmas beetle baubles and paper parrots for a Christmas with a difference.

Christmas beetle baubles

As their name suggests, Christmas beetles would have to be our most notable Christmassy insect. These little beauties give our eucalyptus trees their own little baubles. The trees provide food for the beetles, which become most abundant at this time of year.

Use our Christmas beetle stencils and some spray paint to give your baubles a fresh new look.

Have you heard about the Christmas Beetle Count? This project is tracking Christmas beetle populations across Australia through the power of citizen science. People have recorded nearly 15,000 observations of beetles, including some not seen in decades.

By gaining more knowledge of which species of beetles are around, we can learn how they are doing in the face of a changing climate and urbanisation. It can also help us understand what needs to be preserved in order for Christmas beetles to thrive in future ecosystems.

Put some spines among pines (or gum leaves)

The echidna is one of only two egg-laying mammals in Australia. The other is the egg-laying and venomous playtpus.

Fun fact: relative to body size, the short-beaked echidna is the mammal with the world’s largest prefrontal cortex. This area of the brain is crucial for decision-making. Perhaps these humble, bumbling balls of spikes make better choices than we humans do?

Clay models of this marvellous monotreme make wonderful additions to any table or tree. Make your own with some clay for the body, some sticks for the spines and a couple of small gumnuts for eyes.

Swap the reindeer for tree kangaroos

For a local substitution for flying reindeer, why not consider kangaroos in the treetops?

In the far north, two species of tree kangaroos bound and crash through the treetops of our tropical rainforests.

The powerful Lumholtz and Bennett’s tree kangaroos are built for climbing. They can also jump up to 15 metres from the treetops to the ground, unharmed.

Create your own by cutting little kangaroo-shaped silhouettes out of cardboard, and draw on a face and put it on your Christmas tree.

A female tree kangaroo is best, because then you can tuck special treats like chocolates into their pouch. It’s the ultimate wildlife advent calendar.

Just don’t despair if these guys leap off the tree, as this is quite normal behaviour.

Elegant Yuletide Eclectus parrots

Better than matching knitted jumpers, Eclectus parrots make the ultimate Christmas couples. These parrots from Cape York come in vivid green (male) and stunning two-tone blue and red (female).

Males seek to impress females with their plumage and vocal repertoire. If successful, they’ll engage in acrobatic aerial displays by showing off their colourful feathers, prior to mating. Several males will bring food to a single female while she incubates eggs in a deep tree hollow.

Make your own origami bird decorations using coloured paper. Once the bird is folded, add some ribbon so they can be placed on your tree. Consider creating a whole family of adults and chicks, just as they would in the wild.

You can even use recycled paper and colour it to suit other Christmas-coloured birds such as king parrots, rosellas or lorikeets.

If you’re into backyard or street cricket, you could even take advantage of time spent waiting around when you’re fielding to do a bird count using the citizen science app eBird. Download the app, count the birds you see and contribute to citizen science.

Look up to the sky for inspiration

The “Great Celestial Emu” is a beautiful feature of the night sky in the southern hemisphere.

Indigenous Australian stories about the Emu in the Sky come from all over the country.

Compared to constellations named by Babylonian and Ancient Greek astronomers, the emu is unique. In this case the name is not given to a group of stars forming a recognisable pattern. Instead, the emu shape is a silhouette made up of dark patches of gas and dust blocking light from the Milky Way. This is the Dark Emu in the title of Bruce Pascoe’s bestselling book.

The head is the dark Coalsack Nebula next to the Southern Cross and the neck extends through the middle of the “pointer stars” (Alpha and Beta Centauri). In December, the head of the emu is visible in the early morning before dawn.

We added the Great Celestial Emu to our Christmas tree by sprucing up a silver bauble with glitter.

Finish with some gardening and foraging

We can bring the outside in, or we can head out to enjoy nature in all its glory.

Being in nature has many benefits for health and wellbeing.

Many Australian plants will be flowering over summer, and they can be collected, dried, and placed in clear baubles to create simple, beautiful decorations for your tree.

Or you can get planting and grow your own Christmas tree, such as a cypress pine local to your area or even a Christmas bush.

Caitlyn Forster received funding from the Australian Research Council. She volunteers in the communication space for Invertebrates Australia

Euan Ritchie is a councillor within the Biodiversity Council, a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and the Australian Mammal Society, and President of the Australian Mammal Society

Laura Nicole Driessen is an ambassador for the Orbit Centre of Imagination at the Rise and Shine Kindergarten, in Sydney’s Inner West

– ref. Decorating your Christmas tree? Try these crafts inspired by Aussie plants and animals – https://theconversation.com/decorating-your-christmas-tree-try-these-crafts-inspired-by-aussie-plants-and-animals-244959

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antonia Settle, Lecturer, Monash University

This article is part of The Conversation’s “Retirement” series where experts examine issues including how much money we need to retire, retiring with debt, the psychological impact of retiring and the benefits of getting financial advice. Read the rest of the series here.

Many Australians, particularly those on lower incomes, are often characterised as lacking knowledge or interest in superannuation.

Research by the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) confirms this.

It found only 51% have sought any sort of financial advice before retiring.

Financial advice plays a critical role in helping people maximise their super. But most of us don’t seek professional guidance.

To make matters worse, superannuation experts say those with small amounts of super are the least likely to seek it.

Financial literacy

The failure of households to approach super like experienced asset managers is often attributed to poor financial literacy.

Better knowledge, it is often reasoned, would help lower income households make financially savvy decisions. This would help give them a better chance of achieving a comfortable retirement.

Getting professional advice about managing retirement savings is a first step towards knowing what you don’t know. Learning to trust independent advice can optimise risk and returns, even if those decisions conflict with our instincts.

ASFA research found while trust in super funds was relatively high, only 12% sought information or advice from the funds.

Career interruptions

Some households might have little superannuation because their hourly wages are low and they have long breaks from the workforce. This might be due to raising children, personal illness or caring for others.

Instead of being able to rely on public healthcare or pay others to provide this support, they are required to reduce or abandon paid work to do it themselves. This group consists overwhelmingly of women

They are also unlikely to have benefited from high employer contribution rates, such as those of federal public servants or university employees, who have long earned a standard 17%.

Tax and other benefits

Low balance households are also unlikely to have paid large sums into super to avoid income tax. One in every four dollars contributed to super is deposited as voluntary contributions, which attract a low tax rate.

But most of these low tax contributions are made by the 20% with the highest incomes.

In fact, with 70% of superannuation assets owned by the wealthiest 20% of households, low balance households have relatively little to gain.

Research shows those with the lowest balances believe superannuation is a largely a tool for high income earners to avoid tax.

And while financial advice will always be more useful to those who are able to use super as a tax minimisation strategy, even for low-balance households – getting financial advice is worthwhile.

Financial advice can help households choose investments that optimise the risk/return profile of superannuation at each stage of the life cycle.

It can help avoid unnecessary fees and taxes and help people make the best decisions about spending in retirement so they can get the most out of their super.

Potential sticking points

The 2017 royal commission into banking and finance misconduct revealed major conflicts of interest in the advice sector. This only made some people more wary about trusting a stranger with their life savings.

At between $4,000 and $12,000 for a personal financial plan, independent financial advice is not cheap. There is free counselling to manage debts but there is no free, independent advice for longer-term financial planning.

Recent regulatory efforts to better position superannuation funds to provide free financial advice to households will improve access for many.

But these efforts won’t resolve the conflict of interest issue, given there is little incentive for funds to suggest investment strategies using other providers. This is particularly important during the draw down phase.

This is where people start using their super which they receive as either a lump sum or income stream. The products offered by any single super fund to set this up are limited.

Superannuation balances can be seriously eroded by unnecessary fees, inappropriate investments and poorly planned draw down strategies. This is particularly damaging when low balances are involved.

Facing poverty in retirement

As a result, failure to seek financial advice can increase the risk of elderly poverty, especially if people retire without having bought or paid off a home.

Any savings that can be preserved can make a meaningful difference to the capacity of such households to have a dignified retirement.

For these reasons, access to free and independent advice is critically important for the superannuation system to better serve low-balance households. But free, independent advice is still not available in the superannuation system.

It is not surprising low-balance households are reticent to engage in super given the lack of accessible advice. But the peripheral role of low-balance households in a system dominated by Australia’s wealthiest households may play a role in that reticence as well.

Antonia Settle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Many people don’t get financial advice even though it can help ensure a comfortable retirement – https://theconversation.com/many-people-dont-get-financial-advice-even-though-it-can-help-ensure-a-comfortable-retirement-240207

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ranjodh B. Singh, Senior Lecturer, Curtin University

It’s no secret that many different drugs, whether illicit or regulated and legal, are often consumed together or share a similar group of users.

But the way people consume drugs together can vary, both with changes in their price and across different age groups.

Our recent research, published in the Journal of Population Economics, examined these dynamics between two of the most commonly used drugs in Australia – cannabis and tobacco.

We found younger people appear to use cannabis and tobacco together, meaning a rise in tobacco prices leads to a decrease in consumption of both tobacco and cannabis.

For those aged over 50, on the other hand, we see the opposite effect. Increasing the price of tobacco causes cannabis use to increase significantly.

These economic relationships are important to understand. Policies aimed at one drug can have unintended effects on the consumption of the other.

Read more:
How can we measure the size of Australia’s illegal cannabis market – and the billions in taxes that might flow from legalising it?

Complements or substitutes?

Drugs are often consumed in what’s called a “consumption bundle”, a combination of drugs a consumer chooses to purchase and consume. Tobacco and cannabis are one such bundle.

In 2023, 41% of Australians aged 14 and older reported having used cannabis at least once in their lifetime. About 2.5 million people reported consuming it in the past year.

Tobacco use has seen a significant decline in Australia in recent decades, but vape and e-cigarette use has risen sharply, particularly among young people.

Like any two products, two different drugs in a consumption bundle can be described as complements (meaning they’re used together) or substitutes (they’re used in place of each other).

If the price of the first drug goes up and the demand for it falls, and demand for the second drug falls as well, the two drugs are complements.

If, however, a price increase for the first causes an increase in demand for the second drug, then the two drugs are substitutes.

Mixed messages

Much of the existing research on the economic relationship between tobacco and cannabis has suggested they are complements.

But other studies have suggested these drugs may have no such economic relationship, or could even be substitutes. Given these mixed results, our research aimed to investigate this phenomenon.

Our research hypothesis was that consumption patterns for cannabis and tobacco are likely to change with age, which could possibly explain these disparate findings.

Our research

Using data from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS) on just under 100,000 individuals, we modelled the relationship between cannabis consumption and tobacco price (along with numerous other factors).

Our model shows that when tobacco prices increase, cannabis consumption decreases for Australians under 40 years of age. For this age group, both drugs are complements.

For the age group 40 to 50, there is no evidence of any economic relationship between the two drugs.

However, for Australians aged 50 and over, increasing tobacco prices led to increased cannabis consumption. As such, both drugs are substitutes for this age group.

What might explain the difference?

Several factors may be contributing to the varying relationships between drugs across the age spectrum.

Younger users are less likely to be risk-averse, consuming drugs in bundles. They often roll cannabis and tobacco together in a joint “spliff” or “mulled cigarette”, using the two drugs as complements.

Older individuals, on the other hand, tend to be more risk-averse and consume a smaller drug bundle.

They may also self-impose some limits on the total amounts they consume, meaning an increase in the price of tobacco could increase cannabis consumption as a substitute.

Lessons for policymakers

Our findings can be used by policymakers and public health experts to estimate how cannabis consumption may change in response to changes in tobacco prices – and the possible unintended effects.

The government’s main lever for changing tobacco prices is the excise tax rate on tobacco. Australia’s excise rates are higher than in the US and UK, but lower than those of France, Finland and New Zealand.

Using our model, we conducted a simulation to assess the impact on cannabis comsumption if the price of tobacco was increased. The results suggest that across the entire population, a 10% increase in the price of tobacco would lead to about 240,000 fewer people consuming cannabis.

But this net decrease is a result of a substantial decrease of 340,000 for the under-40 age group and a modest increase of 68,000 for the over-50 age group. The remainder represents those aged 40 to 50.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Are tobacco and cannabis economic substitutes or complements? New research suggests it changes with age – https://theconversation.com/are-tobacco-and-cannabis-economic-substitutes-or-complements-new-research-suggests-it-changes-with-age-245155

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

A Dutton government would keep coal working hard for much longer under its nuclear policy, while renewables would provide only a little over half the electricity generated in 2050.

The opposition has finally put in place the last piece of its controversial nuclear policy, with modelling claiming its alternative would come in substantially cheaper than Labor’s transition path to net zero.

The Coalition policy ensures the issues of coal and climate change will be strongly contested at next year’s election.

The key breakdown in the opposition policy is that by 2050, renewables would provide 54% of electricity generation and nuclear 38%, with 8% a combination of storage and gas.

This compares with Labor’s transition plan for renewables to provide nearly all the generation by then (and 82% by 2030).

The modelling, done at no charge by Frontier Economics, costs the Coalition plan for the transition of the National Electricity Market (which covers the east coast and South Australia but excludes Western Australia) at $263 billion (about 44%) cheaper than its estimate for Labor’s transition. It includes nuclear construction costs.

The modelling, including a range of assumptions (the same assumptions as Australian Energy Market Operator except for inclusion of nuclear), puts the cost of Labor’s transition in the National Electricity Market at $594 billion and that of the Coalition’s at $331 billion.

A central feature of the plan is to keep existing coal-fired power stations going for longer. Then the first of them would be replaced by nuclear generation, in the mid-2030s. The Coalition policy is for seven publicly-owned nuclear plants spread around the country although the modelling is on the basis of units in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.

The Coalition argues coal-fired power stations do not need to be, and should not be, phased out as soon as is now planned by AEMO. Prolonging their lives as compared to AEMO assumptions would save money, it says.

Another important saving, the Coalition says, is that its plan to have its nuclear plants located at or near existing power plant sites does away with the need for a huge new transmission grid.

Peter Dutton says: “Nuclear energy is at the heart of our plan, providing the ‘always-on’ power needed to back up renewables, stabilise the grid, and keep energy affordable”.

“The Coalition’s approach integrates zero-emissions nuclear energy alongside renewables and gas, delivering a total system cost significantly lower than Labor’s. This means reduced power bills for households, lower operating costs for small businesses, and a stronger, more resilient economy,” Dutton says.

The release of the costings unleashes a tsunami of claims and counterclaims about numbers. That debate will be eye-glazing for many voters.

Not to worry. We are talking the span of a generation. Numbers that stretch out to 2050 don’t mean a great deal. Hundreds of things – in technology and politics, for starters – can and will change as the years pass.

Moreover, numbers from modelling have an extra layer of complexity and uncertainty. They depend heavily on their assumptions that are, in many cases, necessarily arbitrary.

Anyone inclined to take modelling at face value should reflect on the Labor experience. Before the 2022 election it released modelling that gave it the basis to promise a $275 reduction in household power bills by next year. We all know what happened to that.

Regardless of the problems in attempting to be precise, the broad debate about nuclear’s cost will be intense.

The opposition’s plan is up against, for example, the recently released GenCost report, prepared by the CSIRO. This gave a thumbs down to the nuclear option in cost terms. The opposition attempted to cast doubt on the CSIRO’s expertise, but that is unlikely to fly.

The Coalition policy will go down differently according to which constituency is judging it.

Most obviously, given its reliance on extending the life of coal, it will be unpopular with those for whom climate change is a top-line issue. Teal MPs and candidates will hope to get mileage out of that. Under the Coalition plan emissions would remain higher for longer than under Labor’s transition.

On the other hand, in some regional communities where there has been a bad reaction to the planned new power grid and to wind farms, the policy is likely to be well received.

The question is how it will play in the outer suburban electorates that Dutton hopes will help him cut deeply into Labor’s majority.

For these voters, stressed by the cost of living, climate change is probably less of a priority than it once might have been. And nuclear is less scary than in bygone years.

But whether they will see the Coalition policy as more practical than Labor’s, or as a pie-in-the-sky nuclear dream – that’s too early to say.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen was dismissive when the Coalition first promoted nuclear. But Labor would be unwise to be complacent, especially in what’s shaping as a difficult election for the Albanese government.

Labor’s strongest arguments will be on climate change – the evils of the extension of the use of coal – and cost (relying on GenCost findings and the like).

But it is vulnerable in its rejection of calls to lift the ban on nuclear. Bowen argues to do this would be a “distraction”, potentially harming investment in renewables.

That’s a weak argument. To suggest those looking to invest very large sums are likely to be distracted if there wasn’t a ban on the nuclear option is simplistic.

Firstly, this underestimates the financial nous of such investors.
On Labor’s own argument, they wouldn’t want to invest in nuclear because it wouldn’t be profitable to do so. Secondly, investors currently
know if there were a change of government, the Coalition would lift the ban (notwithstanding  the present opposition of various states).

The strongest reason Labor won’t contemplate lifting the ban is politics. Any such move would outrage the left of the party, and also risk driving voters to the Greens. It would also require a change in the Labor’s party platform, which says Labor will “prohibit the establishment of nuclear power plants and all other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle in Australia”.

With households highly focused on their immediate power bills, the government has been tipped to extend more relief as it burnishes its cost-of-living credentials for the election. The Coalition would have to decide whether to match this. It would be hard not to do so.

The Coalition’s plan for nuclear power is a big idea, of which we don’t see that many in our current politics. It will test Dutton’s ability to cope with detail under the pressure of a campaign. There will be another test. If the Coalition remains in opposition, will it throw its grand plan into the policy dust bin, so the nuclear debate will be gone for another decade or two?

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: Dutton’s nuclear policy would have coal-fired power stations operating for a lot longer – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-duttons-nuclear-policy-would-have-coal-fired-power-stations-operating-for-a-lot-longer-245839