Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University

The Gaza war has now entered its eighth month and a resolution to the conflict still seems far off.

Israel claims to have killed 13,000 Hamas militants so far. If that figure is correct, one can assume the number of wounded or incapacitated militants is at least twice or maybe three times that number.

Prior to the war breaking out, Israel estimated there were around 30,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza. If this total can also be taken at face value, then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be correct in arguing the removal of the last battalions in the southern city of Rafah would likely thwart the group’s ability to be a threat to Israel.

However, there are flaws in this reasoning. Israel has not explained how it calculates the number of militants the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has killed. Given the chaotic conditions in Gaza, it’s not difficult to believe the 13,000 figure is merely an estimate based on the approximate number of military-aged men (18-40 years) among the 35,000 Palestinians killed in total.

In addition, if the remaining militants are hiding in tunnels beneath Rafah, as Netanyahu claims, what is to stop them from using the tunnel network to move north out of harm’s way? There is some evidence this is already occurring. The IDF and Israeli media say Hamas has regrouped in areas in central and northern Gaza that Israel claims to have “cleared” months ago.

More importantly, the IDF has been unable to locate and eliminate the two primary Hamas leaders – political leader Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the October 7 attacks, and military leader Mohammed Deif. While these two remain at large, Israel cannot claim victory.

On top of that, Israel has not succeeded in rescuing the remaining hostages held by Hamas. Only three of the approximately 240 hostages seized by Hamas on October 7 have been freed by military action. Just over 100 other hostages have been released through negotiations and unilateral action by Hamas.

And international anger over Israel’s conduct of the war is growing exponentially, as demonstrated by the growing university sit-ins around the world and even the loud booing directed at Israel’s entrant in the Eurovision song contest.

US President Joe Biden has also held back a delivery of heavy-duty munitions to Israel due to Netanyahu’s decision to press ahead with the Rafah assault. However, this is symbolic. The Biden administration is still moving forward with US$1 billion (A$1.5 billion) in new weapons deals for Israel, as reported by the Wall Street Journal this week.

Pressure growing on Netanyahu

Although Hamas has not given reasons for its shocking attack that started the current war, it’s reasonable to assume they were along the following lines:

• to get the Palestinian cause to the top of the Middle East agenda at a time when Saudi Arabia was on the verge of reaching a peace agreement with Israel

• to draw international attention to the appalling conditions in Gaza, which has been described as the world’s largest open-air prison

• to stoke Israel’s anger to such an extent, it responds with excessive force and draws widespread international criticism.

On this logic, Hamas set a trap for Israel, and Israel walked into it.

Given the current situation, with Netanyahu far from achieving his stated aims in the war and international criticism only getting worse, where does this leave Netanyahu? He’s facing pressure from three sides, with no good options.

First, he leads the most right-wing government in Israeli history. The more extreme among his coalition partners, particularly Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have been clear they will walk out of the government and cause fresh elections if Netanyahu agrees to a lengthy ceasefire.

With 71% of Israelis wanting Netanyahu to resign, according to a recent poll, he would almost certainly lose an election held any time soon.

Second, the families and supporters of the remaining 130 or so hostages believed to be held by Hamas – of whom Israeli intelligence estimates about a quarter have died – are applying relentless pressure on Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in return for their release.

And third, Biden, his chief ally, wants the war over as quickly as possible due to the upcoming US presidential election. Biden is well aware of the risk that progressives and Arab Americans may not turn out to vote in November – handing the presidency to Donald Trump by default.

Withholding the munitions shipment earlier this month was just one of many signals Biden has sent to Netanyahu that his patience is wearing thin.

The tragic irony is that negotiations led by Egypt and Qatar for a ceasefire and release of hostages have come remarkably close to success. The failure to close the deal has led The Economist to ask if Netanyahu actually wants to accept a deal.

Power vacuum emerging

The longer the war has dragged on, the more it has highlighted that Israel, which has been under Netanyahu’s almost continuous rule since 2009, has no long-term strategy for living side-by-side with its Palestinian neighbours.

Even if a ceasefire could be agreed to, Netanyahu’s government hasn’t articulated a plan for the “day after”. Already, this lack of a plan is creating a dangerous power vacuum in northern Gaza that has been filled by gangs, clans and criminals.

The US deputy secretary of state, Kurt Campbell, this week warned the current situation is reminiscent of what the US faced in Iraq and Afghanistan after invading in the wake of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks:

[…] after civilian populations had been moved and lots of violence […] the insurrections continue.

So, what is the plan for Gaza? Neither Israelis nor Palestinians would support the IDF reoccupying the strip for the long term.

Netanyahu has also made clear his government would not accept a reformed Palestinian Authority, which currently governs part of the West Bank, from taking control of Gaza. And Netanyahu’s preferred option – persuading non-aligned clan leaders to manage the strip on Israel’s behalf – is a recipe for corruption and score-settling between rival families.

Options involving outside forces from the region or the United Nations have also failed to gain traction.

Where does this leave the people of Gaza? As they flee from one conflict zone to another, Palestinian residents are losing hope. As one community leader in Rafah recently said,

The war has changed everything but most of all there is now no security. There is nothing now for the weak. Only the strong can survive now.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Israel’s invasion of Rafah will not eliminate Hamas or end the war. So, what is Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan? – https://theconversation.com/israels-invasion-of-rafah-will-not-eliminate-hamas-or-end-the-war-so-what-is-benjamin-netanyahus-plan-229995

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Raven Cretney, Postdoctoral Fellow, Environmental Planning, University of Waikato

Adaptation to climate change will challenge New Zealand politically and economically. As such, it becomes a problem of imagination. We will need to fund things differently, build differently, restructure aspects of our economy, and develop innovative new policies.

As the government launches a new cross-party inquiry into adaptation policy, it will be important to move beyond politics as usual. We’ll need to think creatively about what is politically possible, and better communicate how climate adaptation can benefit different groups.

In 2022, the previous government launched the first National Adaptation Plan (NAP) for consultation. The plan sets out the vision, purpose, goals and priorities for change. It includes a focus on difficult decisions, such as managed retreat. And it establishes the Rauora framework to allow “planning for Māori, by Māori”.

Our new research analysed all 294 public submissions on the NAP. But rather than focus on answers to individual questions (as the government might), we aimed to identify deeper patterns across the entire range of submissions.

By mapping zones of agreement and disagreement among various groups, we can reveal how new coalitions of interest might form to support adaptation policies and actions.

4 imagined futures

Climate change can be a contentious and politically partisan issue. But our analysis identifies promising areas of broad agreement on future action – albeit sometimes for different reasons.

We distill these into four collective themes of “imagined futures”. They represent key areas of alignment that could inform future cross-party considerations on climate adaptation.

1. Data-driven resilience

Almost everyone was supportive of the government increasing investment in science to provide both authoritative national data sets, and more local and culturally specific information.

For the business sector, data helps strategic growth or investment decisions. For nongovernmental organisations (NGOs), it helps understand risks and responses. For communities, it can stimulate the conversations needed for local adaptation.

Data was seen as fundamental to empowering action and monitoring progress, regardless of who took that action. This is crucial – the more people and businesses feel they are able to act now, the lower the potential liability for future governments.

2. Growth and opportunity

This had a strong economic focus, and was characterised by business sector submissions. The more imaginative responses involved climate-resilient construction, regenerative agriculture or digital innovation. Others simply positioned their sector as a crucial part of the solution and called for more economic support.

Perspectives on government regulation varied. Some called for less compliance to allow agility. Others wanted more regulation to create certainty for investment.

While this theme broadly sought to create change within existing political and economic systems, it gives some insight into how private sector interests see the opportunities and value of adaptation action.

3. Nature-society change

There was significant cross-sector support for working with the natural environment.

Strong agreement existed on using nature-based solutions, such as enabling sponge cities, to help manage the effects of climate change. Others went further, advocating for restoring the health of ecosystems and enabling biodiversity.

Some submissions from local government emphasised opportunities for linking nature to wider policy goals, such as providing health and amenity benefits, alongside urban densification.

4. Flaxroots transformation

The most radical submissions represented a desire to transform society to tackle the underlying drivers of climate change, including colonisation and the more extractive aspects of capitalism.

This came through strongly in many individual and NGO submissions. These stressed how adaptation is connected to wider societal issues such as political power and resources, and the need to move away from business as usual.

There was a clear call for removing barriers to Māori self-determination and empowering communities to implement local solutions. Many noted there were excellent initiatives, such as zero-waste schemes, already happening.

Political possibilities

There were also areas of disagreement. The most stark involved the scale of required change.

The diagram below represents each of the four themes on a continuum, representing differing degrees of social and political adaptation.

Many – particularly in the business sector – wanted to see adaptation occur within existing economic systems, with new tools, incentives or guidance used to address problems.

This contrasted with those emphasising the need for transformative political change. They saw this as inseparable from addressing broader societal issues such as poverty, inequality or colonisation.

As we move away from the status quo we can see how more transformative futures may require deeper public engagement or stronger political leadership.

Our analysis also showed how the consultation process is skewed. There was strong representation from industry and local government, but significantly fewer submissions from young people or youth organisations.

Some noted the lengthy and technical submission process. Others highlighted the need to go beyond traditional consultation to better involve those on the front lines of climate impacts. This was particularly highlighted by Māori, Pasifika and disabled communities.

Nonetheless, looking across the submissions to identify patterns provides a timely insight into the political possibilities. This will be important if we are to shift away from conventional left-right dynamics and make progress on developing an enduring adaptation policy.

It shows us where differing groups can agree, how we can communicate the policy benefits in different ways to different groups, and where more fundamental disagreement or disengagement will require more thought.

Raven Cretney receives funding from the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge: Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūro, and from the Biological Heritage National Science Challenge: Ngā Koiora Tuku Iho.

Christina Hanna receives funding from the National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges: Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa, and from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund.

Iain White receives funding from the National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges: Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa, from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund, and from Toka Tū Ake EQC. He is New Zealand’s National Contact Point for the European Union Horizon Europe program for the Climate, Energy, and Mobility research cluster.

– ref. New Zealanders have had their say on climate adaptation: here’s where we agree and disagree – https://theconversation.com/new-zealanders-have-had-their-say-on-climate-adaptation-heres-where-we-agree-and-disagree-229799

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Breadon, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, Grattan Institute

Health was a centrepiece of last year’s budget, based on a new vision for Medicare. This year, there is less health reform, but the budget does set the foundation for a new approach to community-based mental health care.

The themes of reducing cost-of-living pressures, and expanding care in the community to keep people out of hospital, span several key initiatives. Here’s what the budget means for the health system and Australians’ access to care.

A new approach to mental health services

Many Australians are missing out on the mental health support they need, with the biggest problems in disadvantaged areas that have higher needs but far fewer services:

A 2022 evaluation of the Better Access initiative – which provides Medicare-subsidised mental health services – found it was not very well targeted to people with mild to moderate illness, was often ineffective, and often didn’t reach those on the lowest incomes.

The government’s new approach appears more promising. It will spend A$361 million over four years to better target support to people’s level of need:

• for those with mild mental health concerns, from January 1 2026, there will be a new free digital health service which can be used without a referral

• for those with moderate-to-severe mental health needs, the government is beefing up and rebranding the Head to Health network, which will bring it up to 61 free walk-in community mental health services

• for those with more complex needs, Primary Health Networks (bodies responsible for improving primary care) will be funded to work with GPs to build a team of mental health nurses and other allied health professionals to provide free coordination and support.

This more targeted approach is welcome, and could ensure fewer people fall through the cracks in the system. But getting the design and implementation of this new system right will be crucial. And given workforce constraints, including the short supply of psychiatrists, it may be a struggle to meet demand.

New urgent care clinics

Twenty-nine more urgent care clinics will be built, at a cost of $227 million, bringing the total to 87. These clinics provide relatively straightforward care for urgent problems, such as sprains or fevers, and are intended to keep people out of overflowing emergency departments.

Shifting care out of hospitals is important because hospital demand and costs keep surging higher. But the way these new clinics are designed and run must be informed by evaluations of the ones that have already been built, to ensure they reduce pressure on hospitals and are good value for money.

Supporting older people to get out – and stay out – of hospital

Older people can get stuck in hospital for too long because they can’t get the support they need in the community.

The federal government will work with the states to better tackle this issue in multiple ways, including more hospital outreach services and virtual care, adding up to $882 million over five years. If done well, this would not only improve quality of life for older people, but also help to free up hospital beds.

Freezing medicine costs

Patient medicine costs have already fallen because of previous cuts to patient fees and the introduction of 60-day dispensing. This budget does a bit more by freezing maximum prescription fees at $31.60 for non-concession card holders for one year, and at $7.70 for concession card holders for five years, at a total cost of $318 million over five years.

The longer freeze for poorer patients makes sense, because they are about twice as likely as the wealthiest people to say that cost stops them getting prescribed medicines. And concession card holders didn’t get a fee cut when a $12.50 reduction was given to other Australians in the 2022–23 budget.

This year’s budget also allocates $3.4 billion to adding new drugs to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, while pharmacists will be funded to provide free vaccinations to aged care residents in their homes.

But one measure goes against the cost-of-living grain. The $1 discount that pharmacies can offer on prescriptions will gradually fall to zero, further dampening price competition, which is already limited in the highly regulated community pharmacy sector.

Other investments

As always, there are dozens of other health items. Some of the more notable ones include:

• more money for medical research, with $1.4 billion over 13 years, including spending on existing initiatives and two new focus areas from 2027–28: low-survival cancers and reducing health inequities

• $90 million over three years to help get overseas-trained doctors into Australia, in line with a review

• $70 million over four years to make MRI scans more accessible and affordable

• a focus on women’s health, including nearly $50 million over four years on gynaecology consultations for women with complex conditions, and more spending on women’s sexual and reproductive health services, including longer midwife consultations, and indemnity insurance cover for privately practising midwives supporting homebirths.

What’s missing?

There is some spending on prevention, including measures to prevent and treat HIV, new vaccine funding, expansion of bowel screening to people aged 45 to 50, and funding to continue a range existing programs. But the new investment is limited given how far Australia lags behind other wealthy countries in funding to keep people healthy, and there is no sign that Australia will be building the strong Centre for Disease Control we need.

Some areas where costs are a barrier to care for many got little attention, including dental care and specialist care. And while there were measures to boost the health-care workforce, and improve rural health, new funding in these areas was limited.

Perhaps the biggest black hole is public hospital funding. Last year, the federal government agreed to pay a bigger share under a new five-year deal, but the budget papers on health spending don’t take this into account.

Even so, federal public hospital spending is predicted to grow by about $2 billion a year. This will be higher under the deal that the federal and state governments are close to finalising. When the deal is done, hopefully it will come with a new approach to national health reform that tackles some of the problems that weren’t addressed in this budget.

Grattan Institute, has been supported in its work by government, corporates, and philanthropic gifts. A full list of supporting organisations is published at www.grattan.edu.au.

Anika Stobart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Cheaper medicines and a new approach for mental health care. Will the budget make us healthier? – https://theconversation.com/cheaper-medicines-and-a-new-approach-for-mental-health-care-will-the-budget-make-us-healthier-229612

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Walker-Munro, Senior Lecturer (Law), Southern Cross University

Over the weekend, Queensland University of Technology PhD student Xiaolong Zhu became national news – and not for a good reason. Zhu is a Chinese citizen, and his visa to study in Australia has been denied on the grounds of being “directly or indirectly associated with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction”.

The story begins in October 2019, when the university offered Zhu a scholarship to undertake a PhD in robotics. His research would focus on how drones navigate in urban environments without access to GPS.

But in June 2020, Zhu was told the foreign minister had ruled him a risk of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, specifically missiles and rockets. That decision may be in part motivated by Zhu’s prior education at Beihang University, an institution closely aligned with China’s military and a lead developer of ballistic missiles and stealth aircraft.

Zhu’s appeal is ongoing, and he has done nothing obviously wrong and has not been charged with or convicted of any crime. So why is his story such a big deal? Zhu’s case, the fifth in which a researcher has been barred from the country on suspicion of links to weapons of mass destruction, is just the latest outcome of Australia’s patchy and irregular approach to “research security”.

Australia’s approach to research security

Australia’s approach to protecting certain types of research from national security threats is inconsistent and out of step with that of many of our allies.

The United States, United Kingdom, Canada, the European Union and New Zealand all have national policies on research security. Australia does not.

Read more:
Australia risks falling behind allies on research security. Will it take a spy scandal in our universities to catch up?

Instead, we have voluntary University Foreign Interference Taskforce guidelines, first written in 2019 and updated in 2021. These guidelines were originally written before COVID, the US–China “chip war” and the announcement of AUKUS.

One of Australia’s biggest funders of university research – the Australian Research Council – has only just published a research security framework in the past six months. Our other major research funders, CSIRO and the National Health and Medical Research Council, don’t appear to have anything similar.

At the same time, most, if not all, Australian universities are increasingly turning to foreign funding in response to government cutbacks.

Blunt instruments

At present, the Australian government seems intent on using blunt instruments to regulate research security.

For example, the foreign minister can refuse or cancel a visa if a person poses a risk to security, fails the “good character” test or (as in Zhu’s case) is deemed to be potentially associated with weapons of mass destruction. Since April 2024, the foreign minister can also refuse or cancel visas if the person poses “an unreasonable risk of an unwanted transfer of critical technology”.

Such controls can be incredibly risky when universities are also facing potentially crippling limitations on international student numbers, and where international education is one of Australia’s biggest exports.

Australian university researchers also face export controls. They must seek a permit if they share or publish military or “dual use” technology (research with both military and civilian applications, such as radar).

Many countries have similar controls, but the definition of “dual use” technologies can be incredibly subjective. In 2012, a Dutch researcher was infamously taken to court after publishing influenza research that allegedly could have been used to make biological weapons.

Universities in Australia are also required to publicly list every arrangement with a foreign government entity. A recent study of these arrangements found a disturbing number of potentially high-risk ventures at our universities.

Disclosure doesn’t appear to stop questionable research associations going ahead. A parliamentary inquiry has even found the public register to be no longer fit for purpose.

What Australia could be doing better

There has been a lack of consolidated action on research security.

Two years ago, a parliamentary inquiry heard of sustained and repeated acts of foreign interference at our universities. To date, fewer than a quarter of the committee’s recommendations have been acted upon.

The final report of the Universities Accord, released this year – which Federal Education Minister Jason Clare called “a blueprint for the next decade and beyond” – doesn’t mention research security at all. In fact, it mentions national security only three times in 408 pages.

Another problem is the complete secrecy surrounding these kinds of cases. Had Zhu not appealed, we might never have heard about it.

Neither the government nor the university made substantial public statements about the case. And Zhu himself will probably never even know what information the minister considered to ban him. Instead, the government issued a variety of certificates to protect “lawful methods for preventing, detecting, and investigating breaches or evasions of the law” and “confidential sources”.

Where to from here

Australia could take some lessons from our allies.

In Canada, any federal funding involving a “sensitive technology” will be refused if it involves association with anyone on a list of specific organisations. In New Zealand, high-risk research can be secured by the use of encrypted devices, security clearances, and keeping all research data offline. In the US, universities can be fined or even have their funding suspended if they do not comply with disclosure rules.

That said, our universites are unlikely to welcome more regulation. Such rules may infringe on academic freedom – the protection of academics’ rights to pursue risky or controversial topics.

Universities already complain they are one of the most “over-regulated” sectors in the country. Worse yet, universities say stifling international competition could stunt our innovation and “leave us worse off”.

But these objections shouldn’t be the end of the story. In 2021, ASIO head Mike Burgess said that “taking a sensible approach to national security risks shouldn’t stop [universities] from getting on with their core roles”.

Three years on, even discussion of this “sensible approach” seems to have fallen by the wayside. It needs to start again – or any “Future Made in Australia” might stall before it even gets started.

Brendan Walker-Munro is affiliated with Southern Cross University, the Australian Cyber Defence Alliance and the Social Cyber Institute. The views expressed here are personal and are not necessarily the views of any institution or organisation.

– ref. A student’s visa has been cancelled for links to ‘weapons of mass destruction’. What’s going on with Australian research security? – https://theconversation.com/a-students-visa-has-been-cancelled-for-links-to-weapons-of-mass-destruction-whats-going-on-with-australian-research-security-230002

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda Gallo, Lecturer in Biomedical Sciences, School of Health, University of the Sunshine Coast

Growing a healthy baby relies on getting enough nutrients while pregnant.

But rather than following a healthy diet to provide those nutrients, we’re concerned too many people are relying on “pink” multivitamins.

These supplements are widely promoted for people who are pregnant or breastfeeding, and those who are planning to become pregnant. They contain folic acid, iodine, iron, vitamin D, vitamin B12, calcium, and a shopping list of other vitamins and minerals.

Multivitamins during pregnancy are, for the most part, a waste of money. At worst, there’s a risk they can harm you and your baby.

Most need only folate and iodine

Official dietary advice recommends only two nutrient supplements before and during pregnancy: folic acid (folate) and iodine.

A folic acid supplement is recommended from the month before conception and during the first three months of pregnancy. The recommended dose is 400 micrograms a day to reduce the risk of neural tube defects (such as spina bifida) in the newborn. Requirements for folate remain high for the whole pregnancy, and some people may be prescribed higher folic acid doses or other forms of folate based on their individual medical needs.

Due to mild iodine deficiency in Australia, people who are pregnant, breastfeeding or considering pregnancy should also take an iodine supplement at 150 micrograms a day to support the baby’s brain development. People with thyroid issues should speak to their doctor first.

However, individual circumstances may need someone to take other nutrients while pregnant. For instance, on advice from their health-care provider, people who are vegetarian or vegan may need to take vitamin B12 and iron supplements. People diagnosed with deficiencies such as vitamin D or iron will be prescribed a supplement to build up their levels. Those at risk of certain health conditions, such as pre-eclampsia, may need to take a calcium supplement from mid-pregnancy.

So why are multivitamins so popular?

Multivitamins are advertised as an essential part of the pregnancy toolkit, and maternity care providers often prescribe them.

In Australia, we found more than four in five people take multivitamins while pregnant. People see this as “insurance” to ensure they get adequate nutrition.

Our study, which uses data from a Queensland cohort of pregnant families, suggests socioeconomic factors influence the likelihood of using multivitamins in pregnancy. We found those with access to private obstetric care and health insurance, and who eat more meat (all associated with having more money) were more likely to use them.

This is not surprising given the hefty price tag. The most popular pregnancy multivitamin costs, at minimum, A$180 when taken from the month before conception and throughout pregnancy. Compare this with less than $40 for a supplement that contains only folic acid and iodine when taken for the same length of time.

Expensive brands are not better. Price is largely determined by public perception of brand quality, which is influenced by strong marketing. For most vitamins, any excess is excreted via your urine, making it, at best, expensive wee.

What happens if you have too much?

Our study found a very high dependence on supplements, particularly for folic acid, iron and iodine, to meet nutrient requirements.

If people’s diets are already providing adequate levels of those nutrients and the supplements give them extra, there’s a risk of nutrient overload.

For instance, more than one in 20 people in our study had high levels of folate intake (more than the safe “upper level of intake”). Almost half of all those in the study surpassed the upper level of intake for total iron. Virtually all of these were taking a multivitamin and had higher-than-usual blood levels of the respective nutrients.

Taking folic acid above the upper level of intake has been associated with babies being shorter at birth, lower levels of children’s cognitive development and a higher risk of childhood asthma. Folic acid supplementation, at the recommended daily dose of 400 micrograms after the first trimester, however, could be beneficial for child cognitive development although further trials would be necessary before this is routinely recommended.

High doses of iron increase the risk of high red blood cell concentration in the expectant mother. This condition increases the risk of pregnancy complications, including the baby being small for gestational age, stillbirth, gestational diabetes, pre-eclampsia and low birth weight.

When we look at iodine, about one in four expectant mums taking a multivitamin in our study had very high intakes, which has been linked to lower neurodevelopmental scores in children.

Chances are, you’re getting enough nutrients

In low- and middle-income countries, multivitamins have a place; they improve weight gain while pregnant, newborn weight and might reduce the risk of preterm birth.

In high-income countries, such as Australia, food is abundantly diverse. There are also mandatory fortification programs – folic acid and iodised salt have been used in conventional breadmaking since 2009.

In these countries, frequent multivitamin use may pose risks to both maternal and fetal health. These include developing gestational diabetes (which might be due to high iron intake) and autism spectrum disorder in children.

There are some people, however, who do not take any supplements in pregnancy. Our study, which looked at supplement intake at around 28 weeks of pregnancy, found those under 30 years old and those with a lower household income were least likely to be taking a supplement. These are the same groups that generally have a poorer diet.

What should I take?

People should look for a supplement that contains only folic acid and iodine at the recommended dose, or take these as individual supplements.

They should work closely with their maternity providers, and perhaps an accredited practising dietitian, to focus on eating enough from each of the five food groups.

Supplements should not substitute a wholefood diet. There are benefits to eating a variety of foods, which contain many complementary nutrients and other compounds we cannot obtain from supplements. Following the dietary guidelines might also save you money.

Health-care providers also need to stop routinely recommending these expensive “pink” multivitamins, and instead focus on encouraging people to eat a healthy diet. Besides folic acid and iodine, supplements should only be prescribed according to someone’s specific needs. Multivitamins don’t have a place in everyone’s pregnancy toolkit.

Shelley Wilkinson is a project officer, Department of Obstetric Medicine, Mater Mothers’ Hospitals, Brisbane. She is also the director and principal dietitian of Lifestyle Maternity, a telehealth private practice for preconception, pregnancy and postnatal care.

Linda Gallo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. I’m pregnant. Do I need a multivitamin? – https://theconversation.com/im-pregnant-do-i-need-a-multivitamin-228190

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Neal, Senior lecturer in Economics / Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney

Last night’s budget is another missed opportunity to arrest the poor and deteriorating state of the Australian environment.

Subsidising green industry in Labor’s Future Made in Australia policy may offer economic advantages if implemented well, but there is nothing in this budget to help address the immediate environmental crisis facing Australia.

The story so far

After being elected in 2022, Labor made a number of good promises. The new government legislated an emissions reduction target – a 43% cut by 2030 on 2005 figures and net zero by 2050. Last year, Labor reformed the Coalition’s only emissions monitoring program, the safeguard mechanism, to help deliver these reductions. (Recent research has cast doubt on the integrity of the system’s carbon credits). And the government signed an international biodiversity pact, which commits us to protect 30% of our land (currently at 22%) and halt biodiversity loss by 2030.

But Labor also promised to rewrite Australia’s main environment laws, the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act, which governs the protection of places and species, and approvals for significant projects. This was motivated by the horrendous bushfires in 2019–20 and a damning review, which found the laws were not up to the task of stopping environmental decline.

In the lead-up to tonight’s budget, Labor announced that the stronger laws had been indefinitely delayed. Instead, Australia would get a national environmental protection agency, Environment Protection Australia. While a strong and independent agency would improve compliance and monitoring, it will be enforcing ineffective laws until reforms are passed. Labor also shocked environmental groups by supporting a future for fossil gas, including opening up new gas fields.

Made in Australia

So if we’re not getting new environment laws, what is in the budget for the environment?

A whole lot for green industries. The 2024 budget’s centrepiece is the Future Made in Australia policy, a series of initiatives costing A$23 billion over ten years that focuses on subsidies for manufacturing industries including solar panels and green hydrogen.

Here, the Government is actively intervening in the market to push the economy towards specific ends – boosting green industries and making supply chains more resilient. As the budget papers state, one goal is to make Australia “an indispensable part of global net zero supply chains.”

In recent years western governments have embraced industrial subsidies, most notably seen in the CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act in the United States.

So what’s the government planning? Included in the announced package is:

$3.2 billion over ten years in additional funding to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. This includes $1.7 billion in grants for innovation in green metals, low carbon liquid fuels, and batteries.

$1.7 billion over 10 years for an additional round of Hydrogen Headstart. This will fund the difference between the cost to produce renewable hydrogen and the current market price for eligible firms. Also planned is an additional $2 a kilogram tax incentive for renewable hydrogen produced from 2027–28.

$7 billion over the medium term for tax incentives in critical mineral production. Firms will be eligible to rebate 10% of refining and processing costs of 31 critical minerals from 2027-28.

$1.5 billion over ten years for solar PV and battery manufacturing. This will fund grants to firms for manufacturing solar PV components at all stages of the supply chain and batteries.

Is this the right thing to do? Economists are usually pessimistic about government efforts to guide industry in this way, pointing to the difficulty of picking winners and the potential for funding to flow in the direction lobbyists want rather than on merit.

Nevertheless, there’s recent evidence industry policy can be effective in spurring long-term structural change to an economy – when done well. After all, targeted assistance and direction by government may have played a role in how East Asian nations such as Japan, Korea and China became manufacturing titans.

But what about the environmental outcomes of these subsidies? Will they turn Australia into a green export giant, shipping green hydrogen instead of LNG and make homegrown solar panels a reality? Will they help drive the green transition?

This is even less clear. Australia’s once-significant manufacturing sector began its sharp decline after we dropped tariffs and opened up to international competition from the 1980s.

Could Labor turn the tide? That will depend on whether the subsidies succeed in creating manufacturing sectors able to compete with international competition. It’s far from guaranteed. But it is possible.

And what about trade-offs between green industry and conservation? In the rush to secure lithium and critical minerals for the green transition, the government has invested $566 million to give mining companies free data and maps. This could do further damage to the environment, if new projects are built on land home to threatened species.

Where’s the “Conserved in Australia” policy?

Nothing is in the budget to tackle our biodiversity and extinction crisis.

This is another missed opportunity. The postponed environment laws aside, the government could have addressed the severe lack of funding for conservation.

What about the goal of protecting 30% of land and seas by 2030? This will take funding to expand protected areas – and to actually conserve species in existing protected areas. Invasive species from deer to blackberries run riot in many national parks.

How much should the government be spending and for what? To give some examples:

– $5 billion would fund the purchase of private land for conservation and long-term management. Australia previously had a fund like this, which is why our protected area estate has grown so much.

– $1.7 billion a year is the expert estimate for how much it would cost to bring all of Australia’s threatened species under active management and recover their numbers.

– $2 billion a year for 30 years would restore 13 million hectares of degraded land, without touching farms or urban areas – about twice the size of Tasmania.

Our natural environment affects our national identity, our mental health, and even our future economic prosperity.

Yes, conservation costs money. But the costs may turn out to be very small relative to the benefits, not only for the diverse species we share Australia with but for its people too. People don’t just need manufacturing jobs – they need nature, too.

Read more:
It’s time to strike an environmental grand bargain between businesses, governments and conservationists – and stop doing things the hard way

Timothy Neal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Green industry yes, conservation no: a budget for people, not for nature – https://theconversation.com/green-industry-yes-conservation-no-a-budget-for-people-not-for-nature-229904

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Trelease, Senior Lecturer in Communication Studies, Auckland University of Technology

Television producer and screenwriter Shonda Rhimes has come a long way since being a scriptwriter for the 2002 film Crossroads.

Her production company Shondaland now shines in its delivery of romance shows, with Bridgerton (on which she is an executive producer) being a major recent success. With season three hitting Netflix tomorrow, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Shondaland landed another surefire hit.

Rhimes understands romance as a technical art form. But beyond that, she shows us love doesn’t necessarily always exist between two people; it also exists between people and their passions, and in the way they view themselves.

The art of romance

First airing in 2005, Rhimes’ debut primetime TV series Grey’s Anatomy (still in production today) leaned heavily into the soap opera elements of romance and drama.

Rhimes masterfully executes romance in a contained setting – whether it’s a hospital, a social season in Regency era London, a Seattle firestation, or the political scene of Washington DC.

She also upholds one of most important characteristics of soap opera: there shall be no ending in sight. We’re still following Meredith Grey’s love life from that first fateful meeting with McDreamy, dropping in even now to get updates about her and Nick.

In Bridgerton, viewers have waited with bated breath for Colin and Penelope’s union. Will their relationship reach its climax in season three? Rhimes’ ability to effectively carry such story lines is what keeps us coming back.

Bridgerton’s spinoff Queen Charlotte also delivers the show’s backstory in a way that frames it as having no end and no set beginning.

Marrying familiar with foreign

The romance genre is often relegated to two categories: romantic drama or romantic comedy.

Both, unfortunately, may be perceived by audiences and critics as being “for women” and largely lowbrow. However, the key characteristics of romance afford audience as much a sense of connection as any other celebrated genre.

Romance tends to follow a narrative “masterplot”. This predictable structure emulates the natural milestones of a relationship: meet someone, fall in love and live happily ever after.

But the narrative may also include a range of difficulties, such as love triangles, unrequited love or forbidden love. The obstacles tend to cover such a range that viewers will likely identify with at least one.

This balance of predictability and conflict allows the viewer to escape into an exciting fantasy, while also knowing all will end well (or that even if the couple doesn’t end up together, it will still be the “right” ending).

In any given Shondaland series, there are multiple masterplots taking place simultaneously. These are often at different milestones, and staggered across the season (or multiple seasons).

Bridgerton’s period-setting helps enhance the tribulations faced by the characters. It adds to the escapism, while depicting all-too-familiar relationship issues.

Music is the key

One way to put viewers in characters’ minds is through the use of music, and Rhimes does this expertly.

Incorporating a recognisable music track can add more layers to an already emotional scene. One example from Rhimes’ early years is the use of Snow Patrol’s Chasing Cars in the Grey’s Anatomy season two finale.

The track features alternating musical notes that build aural tension, echoing the visual juxtaposition of formal wear/frivolity with the coolness of the hospital.

Izzy’s confession confirms her love for Denny while also destroying her career. The questioning lyrics, “would you lie with me?”, are heard as Meredith decides between two suitors. These visual and aural signs strengthen an already emotional scripted narrative.

Five years later, Rhimes references this scene once more in the show as Dr Callie Torres fights for her life (and her unborn child’s).

In an out-of-body experience, Callie sings the lyrics to Chasing Cars and her colleagues join in. This time, however, the focus is on the lyrics as they communicate the characters’ heightened emotional state.

Bridgerton also excels in using modern music in a period setting, by incorporating classical covers of chart-topping hits. These tracks are carefully placed to help communicate characters’ feelings.

In previous seasons, viewers will have recognised Madonna’s Material Girl, Alanis Morrisette’s You Oughta Know and Miley Cyrus’ Wrecking Ball.

Season three will bring a fresh lineup of covers including Billie Eilish’s Happier Than Ever, BTS’s Dynamite, Sia’s Cheap Thrills and Taylor Swift and Lana Del Rey’s Snow On The Beach.

In love with the craft

While romantic plot points are often at the heart of Rhimes’ shows, these aren’t always between a couple. Rhimes has always placed a focus on women who love their work and find a sense of romance in it.

In Scandal, Olivia Pope says, “I am very good at what I do. I am better at it than anyone else.” And while her torrid romance with Fitz spans the series’ entire seven seasons, she is not defined by it. Similarly, in How to Get Away with Murder, Annalise Keating is a troubled yet future-proofing mentor to her students.

Rhimes’ viewers are always following principal characters loving their work, their mentees and their legacy.

Even Bridgerton’s Queen Charlotte shows a commitment to the “work” of romance by identifying the most flawless debutante of the coming season. Through this process she reinforces her ability and authority as a matchmaker.

Viewers also share in Lady Whistledown’s immense pleasures of publishing. Julie Andrews’ narration highlights the absolute joy Whistledown feels in scouting, writing and delivering gossip.

Two decades ago, romance plots tended to feature a protagonist with a fabulous big-city job (often in publishing), but their occupation would come second to the goal of finding “the one”. How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, Never Been Kissed and 13 going on 30 are just some examples.

Meanwhile, in Shondaland, a romance masterplot can be superseded by the trials and tribulations of a woman’s career and her journey of self-fulfilment. The joy of escapism now twists into watching women excel in their own right alongside the expectation of the happy ending, or at least the “right” ending.

It’s no wonder we’re still hanging around for Rhimes’ stories in 2024.

Rebecca Trelease does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. From Bridgerton to Grey’s Anatomy, Shonda Rhimes is the queen of romance. Here’s how she gets our hearts pounding – https://theconversation.com/from-bridgerton-to-greys-anatomy-shonda-rhimes-is-the-queen-of-romance-heres-how-she-gets-our-hearts-pounding-229005

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Garrow, Editorial Web Developer

The government has handed down its budget for 2024–25. It’s delivered a $9.3 billion surplus for the financial year just about to finish but is forecasting a $28.3 billion deficit for next year. Here’s the key points:

– ref. At a glance: the 2024 federal budget split four ways – https://theconversation.com/at-a-glance-the-2024-federal-budget-split-four-ways-227451

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Jim Chalmers has produced a benign third budget aimed at soothing hard-pressed voters agitated about their high cost of living and punishing interest rates.

At the same time he has walked a tightrope, trying to avoid the handouts making things worse rather than better.

Despite its appearance, this is unlikely to be THE pre-election budget. With the poll due by next May, Anthony Albanese is still anticipated to run full term.

His very narrow parliamentary majority and voters’ grumpy state of mind would make an election this year a risk. That means another budget can be expected around March. Indeed, the prime minister has flagged it.

An early ‘election budget’

But this budget still has the election firmly in mind. The voters’ mood has to be improved, and Chalmers is hoping its relatively substantial assistance will help do the trick. And the government desperately needs interest rates to fall – hence the stress on caution, so that the projected fall in inflation materialises.

What the Reserve Bank thinks of this budget looms as almost as important as what the average voter thinks of it.

So, as Chalmers has been telling us, the treasurer has had to juggle the economics and the politics.

Read more:
Relief on energy bills for all in a federal budget that bets on lower inflation

The universal help on energy bills and the extra rent assistance fit both requirements nicely. They give relief which cut inflation (at least in the short term) rather than adding to it.

The biggest relief, of course, comes from the tax cuts, which are in themselves the equivalent of a reduction in interest rates. The government’s decision early this year to recalibrate the Stage 3 tax cuts, meaning all taxpayers get a prize, has been long vindicated – the broken promise has faded from most memories.

Apart from hard-pressed households, the government has had a careful eye in the budget to particular constituencies, including women (superannuation on paid parental leave and more) and young people (changes to HELP indexation and payments for placements).

Handouts aplenty, negatives hard to find

Many welfare advocates, however, will be disappointed. While they’ll welcome the rent assistance, the Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee’s recommendation for a big boost to the overall level to JobSeeker has not been met (although there is an increase for Australians with only a partial capacity to work).

With an emphasis on handouts, the budget is also notably light on negatives. Whatever nasties it has are limited or well-hidden.

Its future large deficits indicate the government has deferred a serious attack on the structural deficit to another day. Or another term.

The budget launches the prime minister’s signature Future Made in Australia policy, which is costed at $22.7 billion over the next decade.

Read more:
At a glance: the 2024 federal budget split four ways

The government hopes voters will make their immediate judgements about the budget on the criterion of “what’s in it for me?” With Future Made in Australia, it is relying on people responding to the “vibe” – the idea of Australia becoming an energy superpower, or making more things.

Chalmers and Albanese justify the policy, which includes expensive tax incentives, largely on the basis other countries are playing on this ground, and Australia can’t be left behind. Perhaps. But many respected economists condemn it as little more than old-fashioned interventionism and picking winners.

Read more:
Budget 2024: Chalmers fights inflation, will it be enough for a rate cut?

However it will be years before the wisdom of some of the policy’s investments can be properly assessed, so the government will feel reasonably confident any backlash is likely to be a long time coming.

Albanese told the Labor caucus on Monday this was “a Labor budget through and through”.

It’s a pretty accurate description. It’s generous in spending,with an ideological tinge. The critics will say it’s too “Labor” for the times.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: What the Reserve Bank thinks of Chalmers’ budget will be nearly as important as the voters’ opinion – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-what-the-reserve-bank-thinks-of-chalmers-budget-will-be-nearly-as-important-as-the-voters-opinion-229271

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

A $300 energy rebate for all households from July 1 and a 10% increase in Commonwealth Rent Assistance are key measures in a budget targeting cost-of-living relief that put downward pressure on inflation.

Delivered by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Tuesday night, the budget also freezes the maximum cost of Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) prescriptions for everyone for the year of 2025 and concession card holders for five years.

As Chalmers told federal parliament, “this is a budget for the here and now and it’s a budget for the decade to come”.

After an estimated surplus of $9.3 billion this financial year, a deficit of $28.3 billion is forecast for next financial year, before rising to $42.8 billion in 2025-26. The projected deficits then reduce to smaller but still substantial amounts in the following two years. Across the budget period, deficits total $112.8 billion.

The various cost-of-living measures are expected to take 0.5 of a percentage point off inflation over the coming year, as the government tries to boost the prospect of an interest rate fall before the election.

Looking to boost growth in the longer term, the budget invests $22.7 billion in a Future Made in Australia package over a decade to “help make us an indispensable part of the global economy”. This funding is loaded into the latter stages of the decade.

This includes $13.7 billion for production tax incentives for green hydrogen and processed critical minerals “so industries are rewarded for scale and success”.

A $1.7 billion Future Made in Australia Innovation Fund aims to “develop new industries like green metals and low carbon fuels” and $520 million is allocated “to deepen net zero trade and engagement with our region”.

‘Rigor’ for Future Made in Australia Fund

The policy will have a National Interest Framework to impose “rigour” on government decisions.

The energy relief, which will be provided through the states and providers, costs $3.5 billion over three years and will also extend to one million small businesses, which will get $325.

Households will benefit from the energy help at the same time as all taxpayers receive a tax cut, which is worth an average of $36 a week.

The boost in Commonwealth Rent Assistance – coming after a 15% rise in last year’s budget – will cost $1.9 billion over five years. New investment in housing is $6.2 billion.

Chalmers said the budget showed the government was “realistic about the pressures people face now – and optimistic about the future”.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers told his news conference that on inflation it was “not mission accomplished because people are still hurting.”

International uncertainty combined with cost-of-living pressures and high interest rates will slow the economy, with growth forecast at 1.75% this financial year and 2% in the next.

Unemployment is set to rise to 4.5% by the June quarter next year. Unemployment is currently at 3.8%

“I want Australians to know that despite everything coming at us, we are among the best placed economies to manage these uncertainties and maximise our opportunities,” Chalmers said.

He said the government was limiting real spending to an average of 1.4% a year since it came to office. It will be an estimated 3.6% in the coming financial year.

The budget contains earlier announced changes to the indexation arrangements for HELP student debt and placement payments for teaching, social work and nursing students.

Read more:
At a glance: the 2024 federal budget split four ways

There is $2.2 billion to deliver more key reforms in aged care. The budget also includes unspecified provisions for wage rises in aged care and child care.

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor said: “In this budget, Labor has added $315 billion of new spending, at a time when we need restraint.

“After two years in office and three Labor budgets, the government is no closer to dealing with its homegrown inflation crisis – which means more pressure on cost of living and interest rates higher for longer.”

Greens leader Adam Bandt said: “This band-aid budget is a betrayal of renters, women, students and mortgage holders. Labor’s offering a future for coal and gas that will wreck the climate, unleash corporate greed, and throw ordinary people to the wolves”.

Read more:
Chalmers is bitten by the giveaway bug in a budget that contains good news for almost everyone

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Relief on energy bills for all in a federal budget that bets on lower inflation – https://theconversation.com/relief-on-energy-bills-for-all-in-a-federal-budget-that-bets-on-lower-inflation-229272

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

Treasurer Jim Chalmers promised an “inflation-fighting and future-making budget” and he has delivered by introducing measures aimed at directly bringing down inflation.

Combined, his A$300-per-household energy rebate and his 10% increase to the maximum rate of Commonwealth Rent Assistance will cut inflation in the year ahead by 0.50 percentage points, or so his forecasts say.

This means during 2024-25 inflation is forecast to be 2.75% and within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band rather than 3.25%.

If the Reserve Bank is as good as its word, and prepared to cut interest rates as inflation moves back towards its target, we can expect a rate cut within the year.

Weak economic growth

Chalmers says he is treading a “responsible middle path” helping those most struggling with the higher cost of living and keeping us out of a recession, without spending so much he stimulates the economy excessively and drives inflation back up.

Economic growth is projected to pick up from an estimated 1.75% in 2023-24 to 2% in 2024-25 and 2.25% in 2025-26.

The main boost to consumer spending will come from the long-planned Stage 3 tax cuts. The government modified these earlier in the year so all taxpayers will benefit rather than just those on higher incomes.

It says they will add 1% to household disposable incomes.

Another change that may support consumers is more than three million Australians will have $3 billion less student debt.

It will now be indexed to whichever is lower, the Consumer Price Index or wages, rather than always the Consumer Price Index. The change will be backdated to June last year when wages growth was lower than prices growth, slashing the increase to apply from July this year from 7.1% to 3.2%.

Chalmers says the Future Made in Australia program – a plan to capture the economic benefits of moving to net zero – will cost $23 billion over the next decade. But less than $3 billion of that cost appears in the budget forecasts, which stretch over four years.

Employment is forecast to grow by only 0.75% during 2024-25, down from 2.25% during 2022-23. With the population growing faster, this will still mean the unemployment rate climbs to 4.5% by mid-2025.

Weak global outlook

Treasury expects the global economy to expand by a mediocre 3.25% over the next three years .

Growth in China, our largest customer, is expected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.25% in 2025 and 2026, reflecting problems in China’s property market.

The forecast underpins an expected halving of iron ore price from its recent peak. In accordance with its usual practice, Treasury assumes iron ore and coal prices will fall back to their “long-run anchors” by early 2025.

This usual practice has meant that for quite some time Treasury has under-estimated the prices of Australia’s main exports, and therefore underestimated company tax.

While this might occur again, the troubles of the Chinese property sector make a big fall in the price of iron ore more plausible this time.

Inflation and interest rates

Wages are expected to climb faster than prices over the forecast period but not so fast as to themselves put pressure on inflation.

Wage growth is forecast to slow from 4% during 2023-24 to 3.25% in 2024-25 and 2025-26. If things work out as planned, inflation will be back within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band by the end of this year, falling to 2.75% by the middle of next year and 2.5% by mid 2027.

Of course, the Reserve Bank’s latest forecasts do not take into account the measures announced by Chalmers in the budget.

If the forecasts are correct, the Reserve Bank is likely to cut interest rates sooner than the market expects, either late this year or in the first half of next year.

Critics will argue any measures which give households more money, even in the form of electricity price rebates, will add to inflation down the track.

But are the measures really large enough to materially add to inflationary pressures? Perhaps not. They amount to $3 billion out of total spending of almost $700 billion in 2024-25.

Another possible source of inflationary pressure is capacity constraints in the construction industry.

Read more:
Inflation is slowly falling while student debt is climbing: 6 graphs that explain the CPI

The Future Made in Australia package involves considerable infrastructure spending, and the budget also spends more on housing and on transport infrastructure. All will need skilled and unskilled labour.

At the same time, cuts to immigration will make a smaller contribution to expanding the construction workforce.

The government is forecasting net overseas migration of about 260,000 per year in the years ahead, down from 528,000 in 2022-23.

While elsewhere in the budget there are funds to train more construction workers, it will take a while for them to join the workforce.

An early budget next year?

Next year’s budget is likely to be brought forward to March to accommodate an election in May.

According to this budget, things will be looking pretty good by then – good enough for the Reserve Bank to feel much more comfortable about inflation and to have started cutting interest rates.

John Hawkins was formerly a senior economic analyst and forecaster in the Reserve Bank and Australian Treasury.

– ref. Budget 2024: Chalmers fights inflation, will it be enough for a rate cut? – https://theconversation.com/budget-2024-chalmers-fights-inflation-will-it-be-enough-for-a-rate-cut-229274

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

Treasurer Jim Chalmers promised an “inflation-fighting and future-making budget” and he has delivered by introducing measures aimed at directly bringing down inflation.

Combined, his A$300-per-household energy rebate and his 10% increase to the maximum rate of Commonwealth Rent Assistance will cut inflation in the year ahead by 0.50 percentage points, or so his forecasts say.

This means during 2024-25 inflation is forecast to be 2.75% and within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band rather than 3.25%.

If the Reserve Bank is as good as its word, and prepared to cut interest rates as inflation moves back towards its target, we can expect a rate cut within the year.

Chalmers says he is treading a “responsible middle path” helping those most struggling with the higher cost of living and keeping us out of a recession, without spending so much he stimulates the economy excessively and drives inflation back up.

The outlook for domestic activity

Economic growth is projected to pick up from an estimated 1.75% in 2023-24 to 2% in 2024-25 and 2.25% in 2025-26. The main boost to consumer spending will come from the long-planned Stage 3 tax cuts. The government modified these earlier in the year so all taxpayers will benefit rather than just those on higher incomes.

It says they will add 1% to household disposable incomes.

Another change that may support consumers is more than three million Australians will have $3 billion less student debt.

It will now be indexed to whichever is lower, the Consumer Price Index or wages, rather than always the Consumer Price Index. The change will be backdated to June last year when wages growth was lower than prices growth, slashing the increase to apply from July this year from 7.1% to 3.2%.

Chalmers says the Future Made in Australia program – a plan to capture the economic benefits of moving to net zero – will cost $23 billion over the next decade. But less than $3 billion of that cost appears in the budget forecasts, which stretch over four years.

Employment is forecast to grow by only 0.75% during 2024-25, down from 2.25% during 2022-23. With the population growing faster, this will still mean the unemployment rate climbs to 4.5% by mid-2025.

Global outlook

Treasury expects the global economy to expand by a mediocre 3.25% over the next three years .

Growth in China, our largest customer, is expected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.25% in 2025 and 2026, reflecting problems in China’s property market.

The forecast underpins an expected halving of iron ore price from its recent peak. In accordance with its usual practice, Treasury assumes iron ore and coal prices will fall back to their “long-run anchors” by early 2025.

This usual practice has meant that for quite some time Treasury has under-estimated the prices of Australia’s main exports, and therefore underestimated company tax.

While this might occur again, the troubles of the Chinese property sector make a big fall in the price of iron ore more plausible this time.

Inflation and interest rates

Wages are expected to climb faster than prices over the forecast period but not so fast as to themselves put pressure on inflation.

Wage growth is forecast to slow from 4% during 2023-24 to 3.25% in 2024-25 and 2025-26. If things work out as planned, inflation will be back within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band by the end of this year, falling to 2.75% by the middle of next year and 2.5% by mid 2027.

Of course, the Reserve Bank’s latest forecasts do not take into account the measures announced by Chalmers in the budget.

If the forecasts are correct, the Reserve Bank is likely to cut interest rates sooner than the market expects, either late this year or in the first half of next year.

Critics will argue any measures which give households more money, even in the form of electricity price rebates, will add to inflation down the track.

But are the measures really large enough to materially add to inflationary pressures? Perhaps not. They amount to $3 billion out of total spending of almost $700 billion in 2024-25.
Another possible source of inflationary pressure is capacity constraints in the construction industry.

The Future Made in Australia package involves considerable infrastructure spending, and the budget also spends more on housing and on transport infrastructure. All will need skilled and unskilled labour.

At the same time, cuts to immigration will make a smaller contribution to expanding the construction workforce.

The government is forecasting net overseas migration of about 260,000 per year in the years ahead, down from 528,000 in 2022-23.

While elsewhere in the budget there are funds to train more construction workers, it will take a while for them to join the workforce.

Looking ahead

Next year’s budget is likely to be brought forward to March to accommodate an election in May.

According to this budget, things will be looking pretty good by then – good enough for the Reserve Bank to feel much more comfortable about inflation and to have started cutting interest rates.

John Hawkins was formerly a senior economic analyst and forecaster in the Reserve Bank and Australian Treasury.

– ref. Budget 2024: As Chalmers fights inflation, will it be enough for a rate cut? – https://theconversation.com/budget-2024-as-chalmers-fights-inflation-will-it-be-enough-for-a-rate-cut-229274

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been bitten by the giveaway bug. This budget contains not only the well-foreshadowed tax cuts for all taxpayers, but a range of new spending measures in health, education, infrastructure, aged care and more. There are few savings measures.

There are no new taxes, only the promise of stronger tax compliance from the Australian tax office in receipts. On the spending side the largest saving comes from reduced spending on consultants and contractors to government.

This is bad news for any consultants who evade tax, but good news for almost everyone else.

Chalmers delivered a A$22 billion surplus in 2022-23. Barring some extraordinary disaster, he will deliver another, predicted at $9.3 billion, in the current year.

But it stops there. From the next financial year onwards, the budget year, and the three forward estimates years, it’s all deficits.

In isolation, whether a government has a surplus or deficit is not significant. It is largely a consequence of what are called “automatic stabilisers”. When the economy is doing well, unemployment and its associated benefit payments fall, income and company taxes rise. The reverse happens in a downturn.

For the past two years, the government has reaped the benefits of high employment and a booming iron ore price. To its credit, it has chosen to bank most of that windfall. It could keep doing that – but at a high political cost.

A key factor has been that notorious villain, bracket creep. As people’s incomes rise, they move into higher tax brackets and pay more income tax.

Read more:
Relief on energy bills for all in a federal budget that bets on lower inflation

Eventually taxpayer patience is tested, and governments feel obliged to deliver back some or all the creep in the form of tax cuts. That inspired the previous government’s Stage 3 tax cuts, which have found their way, following much modification, into the latest budget.

This, together with Treasury’s forecast on iron ore prices, are the main reasons why there is less of a windfall for the treasurer to bank in 2024-25. He is faced with new spending programs to deal with cost of living, energy transition and housing pressures.

On top of that, the budget reveals traditional Labor priorities in terms of spending on health, infrastructure and education, and some bipartisan ones like defence. It is little wonder the deficit has grown to $28 billion in the budget year, $42.6 billion in 2025-26.

The story laid bare

The story is laid bare by the wonderful reconciliation table in Budget Statement 3.

This table sets out what changes to the budget numbers come from government policy decisions, and what arises from factors outside the government’s control (for example, the outcomes of wage cases, changes in numbers of participants in the NDIS, or natural disasters).

In 2023-24 the factors outside government control added to the budget bottom line by far more than government spending decisions reduced it. In the budget year, 2024-25, this no longer happens.

The net impact of factors beyond the government’s control is only $51 million, hardly more than a rounding error in the budget totals. Government policy decisions reduce the budget balance – that is, they amount to net spending– by $9.5 billion. It is a similar pattern in each of the forward years. That is why we have deficits in those years.

Nevertheless, they are only modest deficits, 1% or less of Australia’s economic output (GDP) in all years but 2025-26 (still only 1.5% of GDP).

If, as the government predicts, inflation drops below 3% in each of the budget and forward years, there is little in the fiscal policy settings to prompt the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates. The far more important drivers of inflation are overseas and domestic business conditions.

Inherently a modest deficit like this is sustainable. If all the forecasts pan out, the government is on track to gradually reduce debt over time. This is important for intergenerational equity, not burdening future generations with the national credit card bill.

In fact, there is potential for unexpected surpluses in future years if the iron ore price defies Treasury predictions and remain high. For years now, Treasury has been predicting iron ore prices will return to trend levels. Eventually they must be right. In any one year though, it’s hard to pick.

What drives this is not Australian domestic demand but China’s.

That is very hard to predict. It does appear China’s economy has been slowing in recent years, due to changes in domestic priorities.

This could drive down Chinese demand for Australian iron ore and thus prices. But again, it might not. Forecasting China is notoriously difficult. Still, mostly our surprises on this front have been positive – and that might happen again.

Stephen Bartos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Chalmers is bitten by the giveaway bug in a budget that contains good news for almost everyone – https://theconversation.com/chalmers-is-bitten-by-the-giveaway-bug-in-a-budget-that-contains-good-news-for-almost-everyone-229273

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Greste, Professor of Journalism and Communications, Macquarie University

Governments and their agencies wield awesome power. At times, it is quite literally the power over life and death. That is why in any functioning democracy, we have robust checks and balances designed to make sure power is exercised responsibly and with restraint.

So, what message does a sentence of more than five years in prison for someone who exposed credible allegations of war crimes by Australian soldiers send?

On Tuesday, ACT Supreme Court Justice David Mossop despatched the former military lawyer David McBride to prison for five years and eight months, for passing classified military documents to journalists. Those documents formed the basis of the ABC’s explosive “Afghan Files” investigation, revealing allegations that Australian soldiers were involved in the unlawful executions of unarmed civilians.

It is hard to think of any whistleblowing more important.

Read more:
David McBride is facing jailtime for helping reveal alleged war crimes. Will it end whistleblowing in Australia?

McBride’s case forced us to confront the way our own troops had been conducting the war in Afghanistan, as well as the government’s ongoing obsession with secrecy over the public interest.

McBride had been concerned about what he saw as systemic failures of the SAS commanders, and their inconsistency in dealing with the deaths of “non-combatants” in Afghanistan. In an affidavit, he said he saw the way frontline troops were being

improperly prosecuted […] to cover up [leadership] inaction, and the failure to hold reprehensible conduct to account.

He initially complained internally, but when nothing happened he decided to go public. In 2014 and 2015, McBride collected 235 military documents and gave them to the ABC. The documents included 207 classified as “secret” and others marked as cabinet papers.

It is hard to deny the truth of what McBride exposed. The Brereton Inquiry later found what a parliamentary briefing described as “credible information” of 23 incidents in which non-combatants were unlawfully killed “by or at the direction of Australian Special Forces”. The report said these “may constitute the war crime of murder”.

Brereton went on to recommended prosecutions of the soldiers who were allegedly responsible. Yet, the first person to face trial and be sent to prison in the whole debacle is not any of those who might have been responsible for alleged killings, but the man who exposed “misconduct” in the Australian Defence Force.

Much has been made of McBride’s reasons for going to the media, but this focus on motives is a form of misdirection. Whistleblowers take action for a host of reasons – some of them less honourable than others. But ultimately, what matters is the truth of what they expose, rather than why.

That is why we recognise media freedom as an essential part of a healthy democracy, including the right – indeed the responsibility – of journalists to protect confidential sources. Unless sources who see wrongdoing can confidently expose it without fear of being exposed and prosecuted, the system of accountability falls apart and gross abuses of power remain hidden.

It is also why the formal name for Australia’s whistleblower protection law is the “Public Interest Disclosure Act”.

This law is designed to do what it says on the tin: protect disclosures made in the public interest, including those made through the media. It recognises that sometimes, even when the law imposes certain obligations of secrecy on public servants, there may be an overriding interest in exposing wrongdoing for the sake of our democracy.

As a highly trained and experienced military lawyer, McBride knew it was technically illegal to give classified documents to the media. The law is very clear about that, and for good reason. Nobody should be able to publish government secrets without a very powerful justification.

But nor should the fact that a bureaucrat has put a “secret” stamp on a document be an excuse for covering up serious crimes and misdemeanours.

In McBride’s case, the judge accepted the first premise, but rejected the second.

This is why my organisation, the Alliance for Journalists’ Freedom, is advocating for a Media Freedom Act. The act would oblige the courts to weigh up those competing public interests – the need for secrecy in certain circumstances against the sometimes more compelling need to publish and expose wrongdoing – rather than assume secrecy as a given.

It is hard to overstate the impact this case is likely to have on anybody with evidence of government misdeeds. Do they stay quiet and live with the guilt of being complicit, or do they speak up like McBride and others, and risk public humiliation, financial ruin and possibly even prison?

Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus has committed to reforming the whistleblower protection regime, and before the last election, promised to set up an independent Whistleblower Protection Authority. Those commitments are laudable, but they ring hollow while McBride sits in prison and another prominent whistleblower, Richard Boyle from the Australian Taxation Office, faces trial later this year.

It is hard to see the former military lawyer being locked in a cell, and say Australia is either safer, or better because of it.

Peter Greste is professor of journalism at Macquarie University, and the executive director of the advocacy group, the Alliance for Journalists’ Freedom.

– ref. David McBride goes to prison – and Australian democracy takes a hit – https://theconversation.com/david-mcbride-goes-to-prison-and-australian-democracy-takes-a-hit-230007

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University

Ahead of today’s federal budget, health minister Mark Butler last week announced an investment of A$49.1 million to help women with endometriosis and complex gynaecological conditions such as chronic pelvic pain and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

From July 1 2025 two new items will be added to the Medicare Benefits Schedule providing extended consultation times and higher rebates for specialist gynaecological care.

The Medicare changes will subsidise $168.60 for a minimum of 45 minutes during a longer initial gynaecologist consultation, compared to the standard rate of $95.60. For follow-up consultations, Medicare will cover $84.35 for a minimum of 45 minutes, compared to the standard rate of $48.05.

Currently, there’s no specified time for these initial or subsequent consultations.

But while reductions to out-of-pocket medical expenses and extended specialist consultation times are welcome news, they’re only a first step in closing the gender pain gap.

Chronic pain affects more women

Globally, research has shown chronic pain (generally defined as pain that persists for more than three months) disproportionately affects women. Multiple biological and psychosocial processes likely contribute to this disparity, often called the gender pain gap.

For example, chronic pain is frequently associated with conditions influenced by hormones, among other factors, such as endometriosis and adenomyosis. Chronic pelvic pain in women, regardless of the cause, can be debilitating and negatively affect every facet of life from social activities, to work and finances, to mental health and relationships.

The gender pain gap is both rooted in and compounded by gender bias in medical research, treatment and social norms.

The science that informs medicine – including the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of disease – has traditionally focused on men, thereby failing to consider the crucial impact of sex (biological) and gender (social) factors.

When medical research adopts a “male as default” approach, this limits our understanding of pain conditions that predominantly affect women or how certain conditions affect men and women differently. It also means intersex, trans and gender-diverse people are commonly excluded from medical research and health care.

Minimisation or dismissal of pain along with the normalisation of menstrual pain as just “part of being a woman” contribute to significant delays and misdiagnosis of women’s gynaecological and other health issues. Feeling dismissed, along with perceptions of stigma, can make women less likely to seek help in the future.

Inadequate medical care

Unfortunately, even when women with endometriosis do seek care, many aren’t satisfied. This is understandable when medical advice includes being told to become pregnant to treat their endometriosis, despite no evidence pregnancy reduces symptoms. Pregnancy should be an autonomous choice, not a treatment option.

It’s unsurprising people look for information from other, often uncredentialed, sources. While online platforms including patient-led groups have provided women with new avenues of support, these forums should complement, rather than replace, information from a doctor.

Longer Medicare-subsidised appointments are an important acknowledgement of women and their individual health needs. At present, many women feel their consultations with a gynaecologist are rushed. These conversations, which often include coming to terms with a diagnosis and management plan, take time.

A path toward less pain

While extended consultation time and reduced out-of-pocket costs are a step in the right direction, they are only one part of a complex pain puzzle.

If women are not listened to, their symptoms not recognised, and effective treatment options not adequately discussed and provided, longer genealogical consultations may not help patients. So what else do we need to do?

1. Physician knowledge

Doctors’ knowledge of women’s pain requires development through both practitioner education and guidelines. This knowledge should also include dedicated efforts toward understanding the neuroscience of pain.

Diagnostic processes should be tailored to consider gender-specific symptoms and responses to pain.

2. Research and collaboration

Medical decisions should be based on the best and most inclusive evidence. Understanding the complexities of pain in women is essential for managing their pain. Collaboration between health-care experts from different disciplines can facilitate comprehensive and holistic pain research and management strategies.

3. Further care and service improvements

Women’s health requires multidisciplinary treatment and care which extends beyond their GP or specialist. For example, conditions like endometriosis often see people presenting to emergency departments in acute pain, so practitioners in these settings need to have the right knowledge and be able to provide support.

Meanwhile, pelvic ultrasounds, especially the kind that have the potential to visualise endometriosis, take longer to perform and require a specialist sonographer. Current rebates do not reflect the time and expertise needed for these imaging procedures.

4. Adjusting the parameters of ‘women’s pain’

Conditions like PCOS and endometriosis don’t just affect women – they also impact people who are gender-diverse. Improving how people in this group are treated is just as salient as addressing how we treat women.

Similarly, the gynaecological health-care needs of culturally and linguistically diverse and Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander women may be even less likely to be met than those of women in the general population.

Challenging gender norms

Research suggests one of the keys to reducing the gender pain gap is challenging deeply embedded gendered norms in clinical practice and research.

We are hearing women’s suffering. Let’s make sure we are also listening and responding in ways that close the gender pain gap.

Marilla Druitt is a gynaecologist / obstetrician who researches mind body treatments for pain and endometriosis with Deakin University. She is the current president of Pelvic Pain Victoria, is involved in the Victorian state government redesign of gynaecology outpatient clinics in the public system, and is on the Victorian Women’s Pain Inquiry. Marilla is also a RANZCOG councillor, helped write the national Endometriosis Guideline, and was involved in discussions leading to the new MBS item numbers for longer specialist appointments mentioned in this article.

Mike Armour receives funding from the Medical Research Futures Fund (MRFF), the Victorian Government, and philanthropic donors for research on endometriosis and chronic pelvic pain. He is on the clinical advisory committee for Endometriosis Australia and part of the expert working group that develops the RANZCOG endometriosis guidelines.

Hannah Adler and Michelle O’Shea do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Longer appointments are just the start of tackling the gender pain gap. Here are 4 more things we can do – https://theconversation.com/longer-appointments-are-just-the-start-of-tackling-the-gender-pain-gap-here-are-4-more-things-we-can-do-229802

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Chalmers, Senior Lecturer in Human Movement, University of South Australia

The tragic death of Manly rugby league player Keith Titmuss in 2020 due to exertional heat stroke is a reminder of the life-threatening nature of the condition.

Titmuss died after a pre-season training session which was “more likely than not inappropriate”, according to the magistrate who oversaw a recent inquest.

Deputy NSW coroner Derek Lee made several recommendations in reviewing Titmuss’ death in the hope of reducing the chance of it happening again.

So, what is exertional heat stroke, and what should athletes and coaches know about it?

What is exertional heat stroke?

Exertional heat stroke is the most severe form of a spectrum of conditions classified as exertional heat illness.

During sport and exercise, the body is challenged to maintain an ideal core temperature of about 36-38°C.

This is because exercise produces a massive amount of internal heat, which needs to be released from the body to avoid overheating. Hot and humid conditions stress the ability of an person to release this internal heat, as well as potentially adding to the heat load.

If someone’s body is unable to control the rise in core temperature during physical activity, it may ultimately display central nervous system dysfunction. Signs of this include loss of muscle control in the arms and legs, combativeness, seizures, or loss of consciousness.

A highly elevated core temperature (typically, but not always, above 40°C) and multi-organ damage and failure are also characteristics of exertional heat stroke.

In one study, 27% of people suffering severe exertional heat illness died. But even those who survive often face long-term negative health consequences, such as an increased risk of cardiovascular disease later in life.

How often does exertional heat stroke occur?

Less severe forms of exertional heat illness (termed as heat exhaustion and heat injury) are more common during sport and exercise than exertional heat stroke. However, the life-threatening nature of the condition means precautions must be considered, especially for summer sports.

The condition strikes “weekend warriors” through to elite athletes and military personnel. A recent paper published in the Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport reported there were 38 deaths in Australia from exertional heat stroke from sport and exercise between 2001 to 2018.

However, exertional heat illness cases are thought to be broadly underreported.

In an effort to reduce the risk of future cases of exertional heat stroke in rugby league, Coroner Lee made recommendations following the inquest into the death of Titmuss.

1) Mandatory 14-day heat acclimatisation training

The human body can adapt quickly (in one to two weeks) to repeated gradual exposure to hot and humid environments, which ultimately reduces the risk of heat illness.

Research shows that pre-season heat acclimatisation protocols reduce the risk of heat illness in team sport athletes.

2) Consider screening and classifying players for exertional heat stroke risk

The United States National Athletic Trainer’s Association recommends players be screened for heat illness when competing in hot and humid conditions.

This process seems intuitive, but we lack a standardised and validated questionnaire.

Other important risk factors include hydration status, prior history of heat illness and/or recent viral illness or infection, body composition (high body fat percentage), and age (older people).

3) Identify cooling strategies that are relevant and effective

Cooling interventions that serve both as a prevention (during play) and treatment (for a victim) should be considered in hot and humid conditions.

In terms of cooling interventions, the evidence suggests cold water immersion, cold water or ice ingestion, cooling garments (such as ice vests or ice towels), portable fans (with or without additional wetting of the skin), or additional breaks in play can help.

The type of sport will influence the decision about which cooling intervention/s are possible.

Other considerations include the level of resourcing (amount of finances and support staff), type of sport (the number of athletes who need an intervention will differ between team vs individual sports) and game demands (continuous exercise vs sports that have regular breaks).

Is there anything else that athletes and coaches can consider?

Many elite sport organisations in Australia and abroad are working with researchers to develop modernised heat policies that look to reduce the risk of heat illness for elite competition.

An example is the revamped Australian Open tennis heat policy.

At the community level, coaches and athletes can consult Sports Medicine Australia’s online tool. This provides an estimation of risk according to the type of sport and current geographical location.

Sporting and educational organisations should also consider better education for administrators, staff, and athletes to reduce the risk of exertional heat stroke in players.

Samuel Chalmers is a Senior Lecturer at the University of South Australia and receives funding from Rowing NSW, Swimming Australia, Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC).

Orlando Laitano is an Assistant Professor at the University of Florida and receives funding from the United States (US) National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the US Department of Defense (DoD). He is a consultant for the Gatorade Sports Science Institute and currently serves as an Associate Editor for the Journal of Applied Physiology.

– ref. An NRL player died at training due to exertional heat stroke. What is it and what should coaches and athletes know? – https://theconversation.com/an-nrl-player-died-at-training-due-to-exertional-heat-stroke-what-is-it-and-what-should-coaches-and-athletes-know-229382

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Broomhall, Director, Gender and Women’s History Research Centre, Australian Catholic University

Wartime has often presented opportunities for women to step into leadership roles denied them in peacetime. The Italian Wars, a series of military conflicts fought mainly in Italy between 1494 and 1559 by Europe’s dominant political powers, were no exception.

By the end of the wars, many parts of Italy had fallen under Hapsburg rule, joining an empire that stretched across much of the European continent and even to the Americas, shaping Europe’s power hierarchies for centuries to come.

Our new research has revealed the significant roles elite women played in prosecuting war and negotiating peace during this pivotal time in European history. We looked particularly at Isabella d’Este (1474–1539), marchioness of Mantua, and her sister-in-law, Lucrezia Borgia (1480–1519), duchess of neighbouring Ferrara.

Men deputised women to free themselves up to fight. They knew these women were well educated and would handle affairs competently. The women we examined made important administrative, diplomatic and financial contributions to retain power in small Italian states often perilously close to the front line.

Against all odds, both Mantua and Ferrara survived the wars, remaining in the control of the Gonzaga and Este families, respectively. This was in no small part because of the work of the prominent women within these ruling dynasties.

Lucrezia Borgia

Following her marriage in 1502 to Alfonso I d’Este, heir to the duchy of Ferrara, Lucrezia Borgia made important economic and political contributions to the war effort.

Ferrara was threatened first by its neighbour, the Republic of Venice, intent on expanding its land borders, and later by Pope Julius II, who wished to reclaim Ferrara as territory for the Papal States.

Lucrezia invested her dowry in land reclamation and food production. This was crucial to her husband’s capacity to pay for innovative new cannons, which proved lethal in a surprise attack in 1509, destroying the invading navy of the powerful Venetian republic.

In 1512, Alfonso was lured to Rome by the Pope to negotiate a peace settlement, only to find himself arrested and imprisoned. This left the duchess to oversee military preparations. With the Pope’s army occupying nearby towns, Lucrezia quickly organised the fortification of bastions on Ferrara’s borders.

She also outwitted the Pope’s spies by using an ingenious secret code. During Alfonso’s imprisonment, Lucrezia secretly updated him about the war. Unlike the usual system of encryption, Lucrezia’s worked by providing seemingly innocuous family news about their son, the state of her health and that of other family members. These were in fact strategic messages.

Alfonso finally escaped the Pope’s clutches with the help of Rome-based allies, and returned to Ferrara and the defence of the city-state he ruled.

Isabelle d’Este

Isabella d’Este, who became marchioness of Mantua when she married Francesco Gonzaga in 1490, was likewise a crucial actor.

She was 20 when Charles VIII of France invaded the Italian peninsula in 1494, and assumed increasingly weighty political responsibilities while her husband devoted himself to fighting.

Her authority was initially fragile. The citizens of Mantua were sceptical of the capacity of such a young woman. So Isabella commissioned works of art that associated her with virtues such as prudence, magnificence and fortitude.

This self-fashioning is on display in a medallion by Gian Cristoforo Romano. The obverse portrait evokes ancient Roman empresses and an illustrious dynastic pedigree. The reverse features Sagittarius flying above a winged female victory, an allusion to the marchioness’s fitness to exercise authority.

In 1512, the French military campaign to take territory in northern Italy collapsed. The victorious Spanish-led league – a coalition of powers including the papacy – convened a congress in Mantua to divide the spoils of war.

Pope Julius II – an ally of the Spanish Holy Roman Emperor, and determined to reclaim the duchy of Ferrara – demanded the imperial army oust Ferrara’s Este rulers as soon as the congress concluded.

As a woman, Isabella could not hold an official role at the congress. However, like Lucrezia Borgia, she worked diplomatically behind the scenes to save the Este regime of her brothers.

Isabella focused her diplomacy on the imperial general and Spanish viceroy of Naples, Ramón de Cardona. Personally guiding Cardona and his entourage around her prized collection of antiquities and paintings by leading contemporary artists, she convinced her foreign visitors to take her seriously as a woman of diplomatic consequence and eventually persuaded Cardona to delay the attack on Ferrara.

The reprieve Isabella achieved proved lasting. Julius II died in early 1513 and his successor, Pope Leo X, did not pursue the restoration of papal rule in Ferrara. The threat to Este rule had dissipated.

New visions of women and warfare

The Italian Wars provided women with opportunities to showcase their administrative competence and diplomatic talents, manipulate their own public image and associate themselves with attributes that would bolster their legitimacy in similar ways to male leaders.

Many placed emphasis on advancing themselves as women of influence, authority or power, showing (for better or worse) they, too, could be protagonists of war as well as peacemakers.

Looking through the lens of gender and at the activities of women permits a reconsideration of where and how early modern war was conducted. It shows the conflicts played out not just on the battlefield and during official diplomatic encounters, but also through cultural forms of politics and the dynastic service of female as well as male actors.

Susan Broomhall receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Carolyn James receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Influence, authority and power: how elite women played a crucial role in the Italian Wars of the 16th century – https://theconversation.com/influence-authority-and-power-how-elite-women-played-a-crucial-role-in-the-italian-wars-of-the-16th-century-223184

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olli Hellmann, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Waikato

The stories Aotearoa New Zealand tells itself about the history of Te Tiriti o Waitangi/the Treaty of Waitangi have evolved considerably over time. For many decades, starting with the 1940 centennial, state-sponsored commemorations of the signing, the event was romanticised as a coming together of two peoples.

Increasingly, these collective memories were challenged – primarily by Māori activism, but also by the work of revisionist historians. As a result, today’s official narratives acknowledge the Treaty was broken repeatedly, often violently, during European colonisation. And they also recognise the Crown’s obligation to remedy past breaches.

Some conservative politicians have seen this shift in collective remembering as an opportunity for political point scoring. They denounce recent reinterpretations of the Treaty as sowing social division and weakening national unity.

For example, in his 2004 Orewa speech, then National leader Don Brash reviled the Treaty settlements process for creating “a racially divided state”. In 2017, National Prime Minister Bill English claimed many New Zealanders “cringe” at Māori protests on Waitangi Day.

Lately, ACT party leader David Seymour has attacked current interpretations of the Treaty as being “divisive”. His Treaty Principles Bill aims to rewrite those principles, against loud opposition from Māori.

But my new research, published recently in the journal Political Science, does not support claims the Treaty divides New Zealanders. In fact, the survey suggests quite the opposite: the Treaty provides a powerful symbol that promotes mutual understanding and reconciliation.

Our most important historical event

The survey involved a broadly representative sample of over 1,000 people. The key question asked respondents to spontaneously name the most important event in the history of Aotearoa New Zealand. This may seem simple, but it is an effective way to tap into readily accessible – and therefore meaningful – memories.

The Treaty of Waitangi was the most frequent response, among both Pākehā/European New Zealanders (38%) and Māori (59%).

Younger respondents were significantly more likely to recall the signing of the Treaty than older generations. This possibly reflects efforts since the late 1990s to educate citizens on the Treaty and the role of the Waitangi Tribunal in redressing historical injustices.

In fact, among those respondents born between 2000 and 2006, more than 70% identified the Treaty as the most important event in national history.

Remembering the past matters

The survey data make it possible to investigate how collective memories of the historical past shape what individuals think about politics and society in the present.

In particular, we can compare two groups of respondents: those who recalled the Treaty of Waitangi as most important, and those who attached the greatest importance to Eurocentric historical events (such as the arrival of Captain Cook and European settlers, World War I, and women’s suffrage).

Participants were also prompted to rate their “warmth” towards other social groups. In addition, the survey included a range of questions about national identity and redress of historical wrongs against Māori.

Analysis of the responses revealed four important findings.

1. There was no evidence Māori who rated the Treaty as the most important historical event felt markedly “cool” towards European New Zealanders. Rather, it was Pākehā respondents calling to mind Eurocentric historical events who exhibited little warmth for Māori.

2. There was no evidence that singling out the Treaty as the most important event undermined individuals’ sense of national belonging – among either Pākehā or Māori.

3. Pākehā respondents who named the Treaty as the most important event were likely to support a broader definition of what it means to be a New Zealander. Specifically, they understood national identity to be inclusive of Māori culture and values, rather than insisting on a narrow, monocultural understanding.

4. Pākehā who identified the Treaty as the most important historical event showed a significant tendency to support redress for historical injustices to Māori.

The symbolic power of the Treaty

When nations craft narratives about their historical origins – be it revolutions, wars or the making of constitutions – they tend to frame these stories positively.

Aotearoa New Zealand is different. The Treaty of Waitangi – often considered the nation’s founding document – includes in its more recent narratives an admission of guilt and an obligation to remedy past wrongs.

Some politicians have taken aim at these narratives. They claim dwelling too much on historical breaches of the Treaty – for example, through Waitangi Tribunal proceedings or Māori protest – strains the social fabric.

However, the recently published survey findings indicate such concerns are misplaced. Rather, narratives that foreground Treaty breaches help forge a bicultural sense of belonging and commitment to work through those breaches.

The survey also finds the Treaty holds especially strong symbolic power among young people. This suggests electoral strategies that seek to undo decades of revisionist storytelling about the Treaty will likely lead to diminishing returns in the future.

Olli Hellmann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Some say the Treaty of Waitangi divides NZ – a new survey suggests the opposite is true – https://theconversation.com/some-say-the-treaty-of-waitangi-divides-nz-a-new-survey-suggests-the-opposite-is-true-229469

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brett Carter, Associate Professor, RMIT University

On Saturday evening before Mother’s Day, Australians witnessed a rare celestial spectacle: a breathtaking display of aurora australis, also known as the southern lights.

Social media was flooded with photos of the vivid pinks, greens and blues lighting up the skies from local beaches and backyards all over the country.

Auroras are normally visible near Earth’s north and south poles. In Australia, they are typically only seen in Tasmania. However, due to rare and special space weather conditions, this time people could see them as far north as Queensland.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s Australian Space Weather Services first issued a potential extreme (G5, most severe level) geomagnetic storm warning on Saturday morning.

Lucky Australians who received this warning, and those who happened to look outside that evening, were rewarded with an amazing spectacle. However, by sunset on Sunday, the chance of aurora had subsided, leaving many hopeful viewers in the dark.

What happened? Why are auroras so hard to predict, and how reliable are aurora forecasts? To answer this, we need to know a bit more about space weather.

What is space weather?

Auroras on Earth are related to the Sun’s magnetic field. The Sun’s activity increases and decreases over an 11-year period called the solar cycle. We are currently approaching the solar cycle maximum, meaning there’s a higher number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface.

These sunspot regions have intense magnetic fields, which can lead to huge explosions of electromagnetic radiation called “solar flares”, and eruptions of material into space, called “coronal mass ejections”.

When this material is directed towards Earth, it collides with Earth’s protective magnetic field, kicking off a series of complex interactions between the magnetic field and the plasma in the ionosphere, part of Earth’s upper atmosphere.

The charged particles resulting from these interactions then interact with the upper atmosphere, causing beautiful and dynamic auroras. The conditions in space produced by this chain of events are what we call “space weather”.

Everyday space weather generally poses no threat, but these events – known as geomagnetic storms – can impact power supply, satellites, communications and GPS, potentially leaving lasting damage.

Saturday’s dazzling display was produced by the most intense geomagnetic storm since November 2003. Fortunately, this time there have been no reports of major disruptions to power grids, but SpaceX’s Starlink constellation was reportedly impacted.

Why are geomagnetic storms hard to predict?

Last weekend’s geomagnetic storm was caused by a large and complex region of sunspots that launched a series of solar flares and a train of coronal mass ejections.

Space weather prediction is challenging, and the physics is complex. Even when we see an eruption on the Sun, it’s not clear if or when it will hit Earth, or how strong the effects might be.

Predicted arrival times can be off by up to 12 hours, and it is only when the eruption arrives at monitoring spacecraft close to our planet that can we can gauge the strength of an impending geomagnetic storm.

As a result, aurora hunters really only have up to a few hours advanced notice to decide whether venturing outside is worthwhile or not.

Can we expect more auroras soon?

At the time of writing, the sunspot region responsible for the recent display is still spitting out X-class flares and eruptions, but it’s no longer facing Earth directly. It is possible this region will still be active when it faces Earth again, but this remains to be seen.

However, as we approach solar cycle maximum, other large complex sunspot regions are likely to form and, if the conditions are right, produce more spectacular aurora displays.

How to check for aurora forecasts?

Thousands of Australians lined the beaches looking towards the horizon on Sunday night hoping for a second show, only to be disappointed. Official space weather and aurora forecasts provide a wide range of possibilities that must be communicated with the appropriate nuance.

The most reliable sources of information about space weather and aurora are agencies such as Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology Space Weather Services or the United States NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

Not only do they provide aurora forecasts, but they also play a vital role in safeguarding infrastructure from the negative impacts of space weather.

Space weather research

Looking ahead, scientists in Australia and around the world are working hard to improve our understanding and prediction of space weather events.

By studying the Sun’s magnetic activity and developing advanced forecasting models of the complex processes that happen between the Sun and Earth, we can better predict and prepare for future space weather events.

A better understanding will help protect important technologies that we rely upon. It will also alert people to step outside and witness a phenomenon that not only lights up the sky, but ignites a profound sense of wonder.

Brett Carter receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Industry, Science and Resources. He is also currently serving as an Editor for the American Geophysical Union’s journal Space Weather.

Hannah Schunker receives funding from the Australian Government in an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship Award (project number FT220100330) ‘Closing the Solar Cycle’.

– ref. Why are auroras so hard to predict? And when can we expect more? – https://theconversation.com/why-are-auroras-so-hard-to-predict-and-when-can-we-expect-more-229909

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yasir Arafat, Senior Research Associate, Edith Cowan University

As electric vehicle (EV) demand accelerates, so does the need for lithium batteries. But these batteries contain valuable critical minerals, as well as toxic materials, so they should not be treated as common waste.

Unlike China and some European countries, Australia lacks a dedicated lithium battery recycling facility. Just 10% of Australia’s lithium battery waste was “recycled” in 2021. This means the batteries were collected and shredded locally before being sent overseas for recycling.

Shipping large volumes of spent batteries overseas is complex and risky. Lithium batteries have been known to start fires. A cargo ship laden with lithium batteries caught fire off the coast of Alaska in December 2023. The fire burned for days.

Similarly, a fire broke out on a cargo ship carrying luxury vehicles (including EVs) near Portugal’s Azores Islands in February 2022. The risk of fire is even greater for spent EV batteries because they are more likely to be damaged or unsafe.

Efforts to recycle batteries onshore have now been jeopardised by the decision – announced last week ahead of this week’s federal budget – to scrap plans for a waste export levy. The proposed A$4 per tonne levy on waste exports would have come into effect on July 1.

Scrapping the levy will pave the way for even more waste to be exported rather than recycled here. We believe there should be exceptions for spent lithium batteries – for several reasons. These include safety concerns around shipping and the loss of critical minerals.

By recycling onshore, we can retain these resources, build new industries and develop a circular economy. We should also prepare for the possibility that other countries will at some stage refuse to accept our waste. Then we will be forced to stockpile these batteries, at great risk.

Spent EV batteries are accumulating rapidly

EV sales are growing exponentially. Globally, one in five new cars are electric. More than half of all cars sold by 2040 will likely be EVs.

Beneath each sleek exterior is a hefty lithium battery with an average lifespan of just five to eight years.

According to the International Energy Agency, EVs generated about 500,000 tonnes of battery waste in 2019 alone. This waste is forecast to reach 8 million tonnes by 2040.

A 2016 report for the federal government forecasts at least 20% annual growth in Australian lithium battery waste to 136,000 tonnes a year by 2036.

CSIRO explored the potential for lithium battery recycling and reuse in 2021. But little has happened since.

Meanwhile, the mountain of waste continues to grow. It is estimated 360,000 tonnes of EV batteries will be spent by 2040 and 1.6 million tonnes by 2050.

Battery recycling is a must, not a choice

Disposal of lithium batteries can cause fires and explosions in waste management facilities and landfills. If a battery is punctured, or short-circuits, the residual electricity can spark fires or explode. The batteries can also leak metals such as cobalt, nickel or manganese, threatening ecosystems and human health.

The battery fluid is harmful to humans as it is linked to various health effects including heart attacks, asthma, cancer, eye damage, reproductive toxicity, skin sensitisation, damage to bones and kidneys and other symptoms.

Lithium battery wastes are overground mines

Rather than being seen as a liability, the growing pile of spent lithium batteries could represent an economic opportunity for Australia. The battery pack in a BMW i3 electric vehicle, for example, contains 6kg of lithium, 35kg of graphite, 2kg of cobalt, 12kg of nickel and 12kg of manganese. These valuable resources will be wasted if the batteries are exported or sent to landfill.

If the raw materials were instead recovered and processed onshore, this could translate into a burgeoning industry worth A$3.1 billion, using Australia’s existing expertise in mining and resource recovery.

It’s time to get serious about battery recycling

The federal government missed an opportunity to include infrastructure for battery recycling in its A$250 million Recycling Modernisation Fund. These funds were limited to waste glass, plastic, tyres, paper and cardboard.

This delays the establishment of onshore capacity for battery recycling and makes us reliant on exporting waste batteries overseas.

To boost recycling, we must develop clear regulations and guidelines aligned with global standards, including stringent restrictions on landfill.

In addition, incentives such as tax credits and rebates for battery recycling programs will encourage investment in this area and drive progress. Such measures in Europe make the legislated target for lithium recovery from waste batteries (63% by 2027) possible, cutting reliance on imports of raw materials.

We urgently need to develop a comprehensive waste management strategy dedicated to the responsible collection and recycling of waste batteries. Such a strategy is crucial to safeguard both the environment and communities from the potential hazards associated with improper disposal, promoting resource conservation and creating a circular economy for these critical energy storage devices.

Daryoush Habibi receives research funding from iMove CRC for industry projects related to the repurposing and recycling retired electric vehicle batteries. However, this funding does not include any salary component for him.

Yasir Arafat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Scrapping the waste export levy threatens Australia’s emerging lithium battery recycling industry – https://theconversation.com/scrapping-the-waste-export-levy-threatens-australias-emerging-lithium-battery-recycling-industry-229807

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wellett Potter, Lecturer in Law, University of New England

Artificial intelligence (AI) text and image generation tools have now been around for a while, but in recent weeks, apps for making AI-generated music have reached consumers as well.

Just like other generative AI tools, the two products – Suno and Udio (and others likely to come) – work by turning a user’s prompt into output. For example, prompting for “a rock punk song about my dog eating my homework” on Suno will produce an audio file (see below) that combines instruments and vocals. The output can be downloaded as an MP3 file.

The underlying AI draws on unknown data sets to generate the music. Users have the option of prompting the AI for lyrics or writing their own lyrics, although some apps advise the AI works best when generating both.

But who, if anyone, owns the resulting sounds? For anyone using these apps, this is an important question to consider. And the answer is not straightforward.

What do the app terms say?

Suno has a free version and a paid service. For those who use the free version, Suno retains ownership of the generated music. However, users may use the sound recording for lawful, non-commercial purposes, as long as they provide attribution credit to Suno.

Paying Suno subscribers are permitted to own the sound recording, as long as they comply with the terms of service.

Udio doesn’t claim any ownership of the content its users generate, and advises users are free to do whatever they want with it, “as long as the content does not contain copyrighted material that [they] do not own or have explicit permission to use”.

How does Australian copyright law apply?

Suno is based in the United States. However, its terms of service state that users are responsible for complying with the laws of their specific jurisdiction.

For Australian users, despite Suno granting ownership to paid subscribers, the application of Australian copyright law isn’t clear cut. Can an AI-generated sound recording be “owned” in the eyes of the law? For this to happen, copyright must be found and a human author must be established. Would a user be considered an “author” or would the sound recording be classified as authorless for the purposes of copyright?

Similarly to how this would apply to ChatGPT content, Australian case law dictates that each work must originate through a human author’s “creative spark” and “independent intellectual effort”.

This is where the issue becomes contentious. A court would likely scrutinise precisely how the sound recording was generated. If the user’s prompt demonstrated sufficient “creative spark” and “independent intellectual effort”, then authorship might be found.

If, however, the prompt was found to be too far removed from the AI’s reduction of the sound recording to a tangible form, then authorship could fail. If authorless, then there is no copyright and the sound recording cannot be owned by a user in Australia.

Does the training data infringe copyright?

The answer is currently unclear. Around the world, there are many ongoing lawsuits evaluating whether other generative AI technology (such as ChatGPT) has infringed upon copyright through the data sets used for training.

The same question is pertinent to generative AI music apps. This is a difficult question to answer because of the secrecy surrounding the data sets used to train these apps. Greater transparency is needed – one day, licensing structures might be established.

Even if there has been a copyright infringement, an exception to copyright called fair dealing might be applicable in Australia. This allows the reproduction of copyright-protected material for particular uses, without permission from or payment to the owner. One such use is for research or study.

In the US, an exception called fair use might apply.

What about imitating a known artist?

Of concern to those in the music industry is the use of generative AI to create new songs that mimic famous singers. For example, other AI technology (not Suno or Udio) can now make Johnny Cash sing Taylor Swift’s Blank Space.

Last year, writers in Hollywood went on strike in part to demand guardrails on how generative AI can be used in their profession. There is now a similar concern about a threat to livelihoods in the music industry, due to the unsolicited use of vocal profiles through AI technology.

In the US, a right of publicity exists. This applies to any individual, but is mainly used by celebrities. It gives them the right to sue for misappropriation for the commercial use of their identity or performance.

So, if someone used an AI-generated voice profile of a US singer commercially and without permission in a song, the singer could sue for misappropriation of their voice and likeness.

However, in Australia, there is no such right of publicity. Due to the proliferation of voices and other materials that can be harvested from the internet, this potentially leaves Australians vulnerable to exploitation through new types of AI.

AI voice scams are also escalating. This is where scammers use AI to impersonate the voice of a loved one in an attempt to extort money.

With the rapid development of this technology, it is timely to debate whether a similar right of publicity should be introduced in Australia. If so, it would help to safeguard the identity and performance rights of all Australians and also protect against potential AI voice crimes.

Wellett Potter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. AI can make up songs now, but who owns the copyright? The answer is complicated – https://theconversation.com/ai-can-make-up-songs-now-but-who-owns-the-copyright-the-answer-is-complicated-229714

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liam Byrne, Honorary Fellow, School of Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of Melbourne

For many reasons, the 2024 US presidential election will be like no other.

Republican nominee Donald Trump’s campaign is unprecedented. Never before has a former president who so openly threatens the existence of democracy in the United States been this close to retaking the oath of office.

At the same time, university campus protests over the war in Gaza are growing. Escalations in these protests and the responses from university administrations have led to scenes of militarised police forcefully arresting protesters.

Almost universally, commentators are reaching for the same touchstone as they seek to understand what is happening in the US today: the protests and civil discord that framed the 1968 election.

But how apt are these comparisons, and do they help us understand what is at stake in the election of 2024?

Read more:
Could the Israel-Gaza war hurt Joe Biden’s chances of re-election? History might provide a guide

What happened in 1968?

The year 1968 was a tumultuous and decisive inflection point in the history of the US. The events of that year exposed the deep contradictions at the heart of American society – contradictions that have yet to be resolved.

As the year got underway, the US had proclaimed its moral leadership of the free world, while ruthlessly escalating its prosecution of the war on Vietnam. Democratic President Lyndon Johnson had assured the American public the US was in the ascendancy – a claim swiftly undermined by the Tet offensive in January.

Johnson’s legitimacy suffered due to disaffection on both the left and right, combined with his administration’s incoherent war objectives and ineffective strategy. Challenged by several candidates in his own party in the primaries, Johnson announced in late March he would not run again.

The gap between the promises of racial justice and reality of ongoing racism was also stark. Though the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Act of 1965 were significant in ending legal segregation in the south, civil rights activists argued persistent social and economic racial inequality (including in the north) meant segregation was still the reality for most Black Americans.

The most prominent advocate of this perspective, Martin Luther King, was gunned down on April 4 at the Lorraine Hotel in Tennessee. This act of racist hate sent shockwaves through Black America. Protests erupted, resulting in more than 40 deaths.

Another Civil Rights Act was passed, but for many – especially the burgeoning ranks of militant Black nationalists – King’s devastating assassination represented the entrenched violence of a state built on white supremacy.

After the shooting, former attorney-general and Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy famously called for calm. His bid for the presidency inspired many impassioned activists who threw themselves into campaigning. Kennedy had a unique ability to build a coalition incorporating student activists, white suburbanites, Black communities, migrant sharecroppers and sections of organised labour.

On June 5, Kennedy won the Democratic primary in California. Moments after his victory speech, he was shot and rushed to hospital. He died the next day.

Two months later, the Democratic Party held its national convention in Chicago, a city tightly controlled by the old-school conservative Democratic mayor, Richard J. Daley. Daley tried to clamp down on any dissent. Protesters of all stripes assembled in defiance.

Inside the convention centre, the unruly proceedings revealed deep divisions within the Democratic Party over the Vietnam War. Outside, the protesters’ vision of participatory direct democracy clashed violently with the forces of the city police, a symbol of institutional governance.

The Democratic nomination was won by Hubert Humphrey, Johnson’s vice president. Though once lauded for his liberalism, Humphrey had strongly associated himself with Johnson’s war policy. After Kennedy’s assassination, Humphrey’s most serious challenge came from the anti-war candidacy of Eugene McCarthy. But with strong support from within the Democratic establishment, Humphrey prevailed, to the disdain of many anti-war party activists.

The legacies of 1968

For Nixon, the Republican nominee, the scenes from the Democratic convention playing out on the nightly news were a boost. How could a party that could not govern itself govern the nation?

Nixon unleashed a cynical campaign of thinly veiled racism, positioning himself as the candidate of states’ rights and “law and order”.

As the year went on, the third-party candidacy of the avid segregationist and former Democrat George Wallace attracted significant support from white voters in the deep south as part of the racist backlash against civil rights, as well. Nixon similarly appealed to these voters as part of the Republicans’ emerging “southern strategy” to win white voters in the south who had previously been Democratic supporters.

The 1968 election was closer than many expected, but a combination of disenchantment with the Democrats, Wallace’s third-party candidacy and a general sense of malaise led to Nixon’s narrow victory.

Then came the the US bombing campaigns against Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. And in 1972, Watergate.

The upheaval of 1968 and the years that followed exposed fissures in American society and raised serious questions about how united the country actually was. It made clear there were different Americas – and these versions of the country were not reconciled to each other. The house was divided. These differences remain as stark as ever today.

What’s at stake in 2024?

The year 1968 continues to have such symbolic power because it marked the transformation from the hope and idealism of the 1960s to the cynicism and despondency of the 1970s.

The contradictions of that era were also never resolved. 1968 was a year of contest in which different visions of what America was – and what it could and should be – dramatically clashed. This social polarisation was expressed through regular political violence that fundamentally changed the nation.

Trump exposed these social fissures first as president, and now (again) as nominee. But 2024 is not a repeat of 1968 – it’s a continuation of the same issues that have torn at the country’s fabric for decades.

Read more:
Why ‘wokeness’ has become the latest battlefront for white conservatives in America

Trump’s presidential bids have revealed the deep state of division that persists in the US. His support is sustained by the political revanchism of those who actively seek to perpetuate America’s historic injustices and have mobilised behind his banner to retain their social power.

Their unwavering support for Trump, and willingness to continue to mobilise regardless of electoral outcomes, means that whatever the poll result is in November, the threat to American democracy that Trumpism poses will persist.

Until this fundamental reality is confronted and overcome, the country will continue to live in the shadows of 1968.

Emma Shortis is Senior Researcher in International and Security Affairs at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.

Liam Byrne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 1968 was an inflection point for the US. Is another one coming in 2024? – https://theconversation.com/1968-was-an-inflection-point-for-the-us-is-another-one-coming-in-2024-229386

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meru Sheel, Associate Professor and Epidemiologist, Infectious Diseases, Immunisation and Emergencies Group, Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney

We know vaccines have been a miracle for public health. Now, new research led by the World Health Organization has found vaccines have saved an estimated 154 million lives in the past 50 years from 14 different diseases. Most of these have been children under five, and around two-thirds children under one year old.

In 1974 the World Health Assembly launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization with the goal to vaccinate all children against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough), measles, polio, tuberculosis and smallpox by 1990. The program was subsequently expanded to include several other diseases.

The modelling, marking 50 years since this program was established, shows a child aged under ten has about a 40% greater chance of living until their next birthday, compared to if we didn’t have vaccines. And these positive effects can be seen well into adult life. A 50-year-old has a 16% greater chance of celebrating their next birthday thanks to vaccines.

What the study did

The researchers developed mathematical and statistical models which took in vaccine coverage data and population numbers from 194 countries for the years 1974–2024. Not all diseases were included (for example smallpox, which was eradicated in 1980, was left out).

The analysis includes vaccines for 14 diseases, with 11 of these included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization. For some countries, additional vaccines such as Japanese encephalitis, meningitis A and yellow fever were included, as these diseases contribute to major disease burden in certain settings.

The models were used to simulate how diseases would have spread from 1974 to now, as vaccines were introduced, for each country and age group, incorporating data on increasing vaccine coverage over time.

Children are the greatest beneficiaries of vaccines

Since 1974, the rates of deaths in children before their first birthday has more than halved. The researchers calculated almost 40% of this reduction is due to vaccines.

The effects have been greatest for children born in the 1980s because of the intensive efforts made globally to reduce the burden of diseases like measles, polio and whooping cough.

Some 60% of the 154 million lives saved would have been lives lost to measles. This is likely due to its ability to spread rapidly. One person with measles can spread the infection to 12–18 people.

The study also found some variation across different parts of the world. For example, vaccination programs have had a much greater impact on the probability of children living longer across low- and middle-income countries and settings with weaker health systems such as the eastern Mediterranean and African regions. These results highlight the important role vaccines play in promoting health equity.

Vaccine success is not assured

Low or declining vaccine coverage can lead to epidemics which can devastate communities and overwhelm health systems.

Notably, the COVID pandemic saw an overall decline in measles vaccine coverage, with 86% of children having received their first dose in 2019 to 83% in 2022. This is concerning because very high levels of vaccination coverage (more than 95%) are required to achieve herd immunity against measles.

In Australia, the coverage for childhood vaccines, including measles, mumps and rubella, has declined compared to before the pandemic.

This study is a reminder of why we need to continue to vaccinate – not just against measles, but against all diseases we have safe and effective vaccines for.

The results of this research don’t tell us the full story about the impact of vaccines. For example, the authors didn’t include data for some vaccines such as COVID and HPV (human papillomavirus). Also, like with all modelling studies, there are some uncertainties, as data was not available for all time periods and countries.

Nonetheless, the results show the success of global vaccination programs over time. If we want to continue to see lives saved, we need to keep investing in vaccination locally, regionally and globally.

Meru Sheel is a current member of the WHO immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC), and Co-Chair the IA2030 Pillar on Research and Innovation.

Alexandra Hogan receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), and has previously received funding from the World Health Organization (WHO), Gavi, and PATH for vaccine-related modelling work. Alexandra Hogan is a current member of the WHO Immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC).

– ref. 154 million lives saved in 50 years: 5 charts on the global success of vaccines – https://theconversation.com/154-million-lives-saved-in-50-years-5-charts-on-the-global-success-of-vaccines-229707

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chrissy Severinsen, Associate Professor in Public Health, Massey University

Becoming a mother is a significant identity shift, and many new mums struggle. Up to 18% of New Zealand mothers experience depression and anxiety after giving birth.

The first thousand days, from conception to a child’s second birthday, are critical for a baby’s development. A mother’s mental health during this time can have a profound impact on the child’s lifelong wellbeing.

Well Child Tamariki Ora, a free postnatal service developed from New Zealand’s iconic Plunket health services but now overseen by the government, provides vital support at a vulnerable time.

However, our research shows these services may be missing critical opportunities to address maternal mental health.

Our Wāhi Kōrero study allows the anonymous sharing of health-related stories to help improve health outcomes. We collected 420 stories about families’ experiences with the Well Child service – and they reveal a pattern of unmet needs.

Barriers to seeking help

Many mothers feared being judged as inadequate or unfit if they admitted struggling. One mother explained:

I was scared that if I opened up about how I was feeling, that people would think I was incompetent or neglectful or a danger to my baby, so whenever my Well Child nurse visited, I would just say things were good […] I wish I could’ve told her how much I was struggling.

Others felt it was hard to articulate their distress:

I wish my Plunket nurse had asked if I was ok. I was not coping at all, having terrible anxiety attacks, crying all the time, very highly strung. But both my babies were big chubby happy babies so I just got showered with praise while inside, I was cringing, thinking how wrong she was. I just needed a chance to say how I was feeling, then maybe I would’ve got the help I needed when I needed it.

Mothers wanted to connect with the nurses but struggled to build a relationship. Talking about mental health is deeply personal and can be uncomfortable. Such conversations require trust and many mothers did not feel safe to share.

Instead, many felt appointments were too rushed, and impersonal checklists left little room for authentic connection. One mother explained she felt pressure to give the “correct” answers to the nurse’s questions.

Rather than inviting confidences, the questions felt like an interrogation:

Then came the checklist. It felt like a barrage of questions, rather than a conversation to develop a relationship. “Are you depressed?” while I’m cowering on the couch, quietly crying. I was too ashamed to admit it, and that was that. That visit and every subsequent visit left me feeling even less supported than I did beforehand.

Importance of listening and trust building

When nurses did take the time to listen, ask open-ended questions and go beyond the standard script, it made a world of difference. Mothers felt more comfortable sharing when they felt genuine care and interest.

But mothers were aware the main priority of the visits was checking their baby’s physical growth. One mother said:

I wish my nurse made me feel like I had someone I could talk to, not just about the weight and size of our growing pēpi but about me, māmā.

Many mothers spoke of suffering in silence. This points to a need for significant changes in how we approach postpartum care. We need to build a service that nurtures the whole family rather than just monitoring the baby’s growth and ticking boxes.

The postpartum period is a time of profound change and Māori, Pasifika and Asian mothers face higher risks of mental health problems.

A recent review of the Well Child service found Māori, Pacific peoples and whānau living in poverty are consistently underserved by the programme. This contributes to the unfair differences we see in Māori and Pacific maternal mental health.

Well Child services could focus on building trust and meaningful relationships to better support maternal mental health.

This means moving beyond narrow checklists and focusing on the mother as well as the baby. It means taking time for honest conversation, not just rote questioning. It means care from nurses equipped to discuss mental health sensitively.

New mothers’ needs are complex, but they deserve comprehensive, culturally responsive maternal mental health support.

The Well Child service has had a vital role in supporting mothers since its beginnings. This includes recognising that helping mothers is the route to better outcomes for children.

By listening to mothers’ voices and reorienting services, we can provide the care mothers urgently need. Their wellbeing is critical for them and the next generation.

The Wāhi Kōrero research project has received funding from the Massey University Research Fund, the Palmerston North Medical Research Foundation, and the Health Research Council.

Angelique Reweti and Mary Breheny do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Many new mums struggle, but NZ’s postnatal services often fail to address maternal mental health – new study – https://theconversation.com/many-new-mums-struggle-but-nzs-postnatal-services-often-fail-to-address-maternal-mental-health-new-study-227341

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anabela Malpique, Senior Lecturer, Edith Cowan University

Children today are growing up surrounded by technology. So it’s easy to assume they will be able to write effectively using a keyboard.

But our research suggests this is not necessarily true.

We need to actively teach students to be able to type as well as write using paper and pen or pencil.

Our research

Our research team has published two recent studies investigating children’s handwriting and typing.

In a study published last month we looked at Year 2 students and their handwriting and keyboard writing. This study involved 544 students from 17 primary schools in Perth, Western Australia.

We assessed how easily students wrote stories using paper and pencil compared to writing stories using a laptop. We found they produced longer and higher-quality handwritten texts. This was based on ten criteria, including ideas, vocabulary, spelling and punctuation.

These findings echoed our December 2023 study where we did a meta-analysis of studies published between 2000–2022. These compared the effects of writing by hand or keyboard on primary students’ writing.

We looked at 22 international studies involving 6,168 participants from across different countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and other non-native English-speaking countries, such as Germany and Portugal.

Our analysis showed primary students produce higher quality texts using paper and pen or pencil than when using a keyboard.

Why are kids stronger in handwriting?

In Australia – as in many other countries – children are taught to write by hand first. Keyboard writing is only added as an extra skill once handwriting has been mastered.

We know it is very important to continue to teach children to write by hand, despite so many advances in technology.

Studies show teaching handwriting in the first years of schooling is connected to improved spelling and greater capacity to write well and quickly in primary and later years of schooling.

Other studies show using handwriting to create texts (such as notes) promotes our capacity to learn and memorise information.

But they also need to learn how to use keyboards

We know it is also important for students be able to write quickly and accurately using a keyboard.

They will need to use keyboards to write for study, work and life as they get older. This process needs to become automatic so they can concentrate on the content of what they are writing.

Our research has consistently shown young people who can spell and write quickly and accurately are able to produce longer and higher quality pieces of writing. Other studies have shown when children face difficulties in handwriting or typing, they may often avoid writing altogether and develop a negative mindset toward writing.

Learning to type is complex

As our research suggests, students also need to be taught how to use a keyboard. Much like handwriting, it requires a complex set of cognitive, visual and motor processes, requiring frequent practice and instruction.

It involves learning the location of the keys on a keyboard, combined with spatial skills of positioning, and moving fingers to press the keys in the correct sequence. Students need time to practise so they can move beyond the “hunt and peck” motion (where you have to hunt visually for each key).

Research also suggests teaching about keyboards is more effective when spread out over several years.

First, children need to understand letter locations on the keyboard and the position of their hands, which can be developed via online practice exercises monitored by teachers. Accuracy and speed should not be emphasised until students have mastered where letters are.

Which comes first?

While students ultimately need to be able to write both on paper and using digital devices, there are unanswered questions about the order in which handwriting and typing should be taught or whether they should be taught together.

We also don’t yet know if it matters whether students are learning to write via keyboards, touch typing on tablets or by using stylus pens (devices that look like pencils and write via screens).

More research is needed to support teachers, students and families.

How to help your child

Despite these unknowns, there are many things we can do to help students learn how to write on paper and using a keyboard. These include:

• dedicating time for practice: teachers can build regular times in class to write and send home small tasks (such as writing a shopping list, finishing a story or describing a monster)

• joining in: instead of “policing” your child’s writing, show them what you write in your everyday life. As you write, you can talk about what you will write (planning) and you can share ideas about how you can make your writing clearer or more exciting.

• talk about your mistakes and find ways of correcting your writing: when adults talk about their errors or doubts, they make them a natural part of the process.

• ask children to read what they have written: this provides opportunities for correction and celebration. Praise children’s bold attempts such as using new words or experimenting with expressions.

• give children choice: this gives children some control. For example, they can choose a topic, they can mix art and letters or they can choose paper or keyboard.

• display their writing: make children’s writing visible on your walls or fridge or as wallpapers on your devices to instil a sense a pride in what they have done.

Anabela Malpique receives funding from The Ian Potter Foundation

Deborah Pino Pasternak receives funding from The Ian Potter Foundation, and the ACT Education Directorate via the Affiliated Schools Funded Research Projects.

Susan Ledger received funding from Ian Potter Foundation.

– ref. Our research shows children produce better pieces of writing by hand. But they need keyboard skills too – https://theconversation.com/our-research-shows-children-produce-better-pieces-of-writing-by-hand-but-they-need-keyboard-skills-too-229380

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron Teo, Lecturer in Curriculum and Pedagogy, University of Southern Queensland

Much has been written and produced about white men’s fetishisation of Asian women (crudely nicknamed “yellow fever”). The ABC’s comedy series White Fever breaks new ground by exploring an Asian woman’s white man fetish in an Australian context.

Across six humorous and heartwarming episodes, protagonist Jane Thomas (Ra Chapman), a Korean adoptee, embarks on a tumultuous journey of coming to terms with her internalised racism.

“Internalised racism” refers to a racial minority’s tacit acceptance of negative understandings or stereotypes about their own racial group. Or as sociologist Karen Pyke explains, it’s the “internalisation of racial oppression by the racially subordinated”.

Despite its close links with white supremacy and colonisation, it remains an issue that is largely omitted from public discussions about racism.

Jane’s ‘white fetish’

Episode one of White Fever sets the scene for how, despite appearing Asian, Jane is referred to as “whiter than most white people”. She was raised by white parents in a small country town. She enjoys meat pies, surrounds herself with white friends and is only sexually attracted to white “manly men” with ample body hair.

However, following an unsuccessful dalliance with a white bartender who has a liking for “petite and gentle” Asian women – and after being accused of not being able to date Asian men – Jane takes on the challenge of trying to land one.

Chaos and hilarity ensue as she unsuccessfully tries to woo a number of Asian men. And when she finds herself involuntarily repulsed by them, she seeks answers from Korean adoptee advocate and influencer Hera (Cassandra Sorrell).

From here, Jane is prompted to learn about the adoption of South Korean children, connect with fellow adoptees and, eventually, reconnect with her heritage by unlearning her internalised racism.

Upholding ideas of white supremacy

Internalised racism involves a minority group’s (conscious or subconscious) endorsement of a racial hierarchy that elevates white people above people of colour.

Working alongside other forms of oppression, it has insidious impacts at an individual level, as well as within and between minority groups.

Internalised racism can manifest in many ways. It might involve people of colour fixating on white cultural norms, denying racism exists, or even resenting their own culture.

The latter is captured poignantly in White Fever. We see Jane’s refusal to speak her heritage language, which she then ultimately loses. We also see a flashback of her younger self referring to the town’s sole Asian (Cantonese) restaurateur as a “ping pong woman” and “mail-order bride”.

Internalised racism also impacts self-image and beauty standards, such as through preferencing whiter skin and shaming non-white-looking hair.

Collectively, these attitudes can influence people of colours’ individual racial identities and can result in psychological distress or other adverse health impacts such as maladaptive coping behaviours, depression, anxiety and lower life satisfaction and quality of life, to name a few. Negative stereotypes about one’s racial group can also become self-fulfilling prophecies, which may lead to a person of colour distancing themselves from their group.

For Asian populations in particular, internalised racism can fracture communities from within when certain members uphold and reinforce harmful stereotypes on others. This is also shown in my own research on Asian communities in education spaces.

Beyond this, internalised racism has broader harmful effects in the form of anti-Blackness, which encompasses negative opinions and unfair treatment of Black people. In an Australian context this manifests as anti-Indigeneity.

What causes it?

Internalised racism is part of a broader system of racism which operates everyday at systemic and institutional levels.

But racism can be hard to understand and define. On one hand, it is a social construct that adapts to changing contexts. On the other, it reproduces harmful ideologies and behaviours that are all too familiar.

Racism’s complex, ever-changing and systemic nature helps to entrench internalised racism within minority groups. This makes it difficult to both recognise and work against.

In White Fever, Jane’s internalised racism – manifested in her willingness to egg the town’s Asian restaurant with her white schoolmates – is rewarded with a kiss from her white male crush, and her ongoing “friendship” with a white-dominant group.

Similarly, in real life, people of colour with internalised racism may be rewarded through an illusory sense of racial superiority. This form of “honorary whiteness” is detrimental to their own group and other minorities.

Is there a solution?

As Hera quips to Jane, internalised racism is “not your fault, but it is your responsibility”.

For Asian Australians and other racial minorities, challenging internalised racism starts with recognising the way in which white supremacy operates.

In an Australian context, it means focusing on First Nations sovereignty as a baseline for addressing broader racial inequity in Australia. This is a crucial first step in disassembling the systems of white supremacy which are responsible for the ongoing displacement and oppression of First Nations peoples and, by extension, of other minorities.

It also means taking an anti-racist stance at home, at work, in the classroom and beyond. It means speaking up, even when it feels uncomfortable.

And of course, this responsibility doesn’t just fall on racial minorities. White people can take on ally roles by educating themselves about all forms of racism, understanding their privilege, listening non-defensively and speaking with friends and family about racial injustice.

Racism is everyone’s responsibility, and something we should feverishly work against together.

Aaron Teo is Queensland Convener for the Asian Australian Alliance, which is grassroots organisation which empowers, advocates, and creates a platform for change for all Asian Australians through projects, workshops, campaigns, and public awareness (https://asianaustralianalliance.net/).

– ref. Is it wrong to have a romantic type based on race? Yes – it’s a form of racism we rarely speak about – https://theconversation.com/is-it-wrong-to-have-a-romantic-type-based-on-race-yes-its-a-form-of-racism-we-rarely-speak-about-229002

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The third Chalmers’ budget will deliver a surplus of $9.3 billion for this financial year – the second successive surplus of the Albanese government.

This will be the first time there have been back-to-back surpluses in nearly two decades. But the forecast surplus is less than the $22.1 billion last financial year.

Tuesday’s budget will show that compared to the December mid year budget update, there has been an improvement of $10.5 billion in the bottom line. The update forecasted a deficit of $1.1 billion for 2023-24.

The budget position between 2024-25 and 2026-27 will be weaker compared to the December update.

It will be much stronger, however, than the pre-election economic and fiscal outlook (PEFO) of 2022.

The government says most of the deterioration since the December update is a result of the need to fund unavoidable spending, including extending programs put in place by the former government that were due to end.

It says investments in the future drivers of growth will also contribute to bigger than previously forecast later deficits.

By 2027-28 the budget position will be stronger than forecast in the December update.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told the caucus on Monday the budget would be “a Labor budget through and through”.

“This will be a night of which you can all be very, very proud,” he said.

“We live in uncertain economic times, but what we’ve ensured is that we deal with some of those pressures whilst, of course, making sure we have our eye on the future.”

In releasing the surplus figure, Chalmers indicated the budget would bank 96% of the revenue upgrade in 2023-24. This upgrade came from greater-than-expected company tax and other collections in 2023-24.

But he gave no commitment on what would be banked in subsequent years, saying only the government would bank (not spend) revenue upgrades while inflation remained “above the Reserve Bank’s target band”.

The budget will forecast inflation falling back within the target band by the end of this year.

Chalmers has previously indicated that for some of the years for which spending is forecast, deficits will be bigger than previously announced in December in order to support the economy.

The increase in real spending is expected to average 1.4% over the period between the start of the Labor government to 2027-28.

Chalmers said the forecast surplus had “come on top, not at the expense, of helping those doing it tough”.

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said the government had found more than $77 billion in savings and reprioritisation since coming to office.

Albanese said the budget would have new investments in Medicare and the health system, more help for households, more homes, and a tax cut for every taxpayer.

The cost-of-living relief would not increase inflation – indeed, it would reduce inflation.

Meanwhile, a Morgan poll released Monday had Labor with a two-party lead over the Coalition of 52% to 48%.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Jim Chalmers’ third budget will have a surplus of $9.3 billion for this financial year – https://theconversation.com/jim-chalmers-third-budget-will-have-a-surplus-of-9-3-billion-for-this-financial-year-229009

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Annette Greenhow, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law, Bond University

In recent years, a growing number of professional athletes are medically retiring from sport, particularly in some of Australia’s most popular football codes.

In April, Collingwood player Nathan Murphy, 24, medically retired due to advice about his concussion history. He follows 28-year-old Angus Brayshaw as another high-profile, mid-career player who announced his retirement on medical grounds this year.

In other codes, Cronulla Sharks co-captain Dale Finucane retired last month due to concussion concerns. He joined other NRL players Boyd Cordner, Jake Friend and Andrew Davey in retiring on medical advice or by personal choice.

Rising Australian cricket star Will Pucovksi, with a long history of concussions, is currently working with medical experts from in the sport to determine his playing future.

Medical retirement can happen at any level of any sport, but media and public attention tends to focus on the elite codes, drawing attention to the heightened public awareness of concussion and concerns around the cumulative effects of repeated head impacts and links to longer term neurological conditions.

But what is the process these players go through in reaching this decision? Is there any room for pushback should a player want to continue to play despite being advised otherwise?

Living the dream

We first need to understand the context of the sporting field as a workplace. These are performance-driven athletes with identities shaped by the pathways they take to reach the top.

To illustrate, the annual AFL draft involves around 1,500 young hopefuls trying out for selection, with less than 10% getting an offer to join professional ranks.

So a measure of success is being selected and employed by a team and then staying on a club’s active list for the longest period possible.

This brings us to the other point of difference – the very short average length of a player’s career at the elite level.

According to the AFL Players’ Association (AFLPA), the average length of a footballer’s professional career is less than six years.

So in terms of financial rewards and sponsorship opportunities, this means making a living from perusing this dream is much shorter than the average worker, and athletes often do everything they can to keep playing – occasionally risking their health to do so. Sociologists call this the “sport ethic”, involving risk, pain and injury tolerance to win at all costs.

Sorry, but the dream might be over

With this context, receiving medical advice recommending early retirement must be devastating for an athlete.

Both the AFLPA and the Rugby League Players Association (RLPA) have developed support mechanisms to help athletes navigate the process in the event that retirement may be on the cards, recognising the toll it can take on a player’s mental health and wellbeing.

But what are the steps in the lead-up to a medical decision?

The player’s first point of contact is typically a club doctor or other club-appointed health professionals. These health professionals are closely involved in assessing a player’s fitness and use league-approved concussion and head injury assessment diagnostic tools and processes.

In 2019, the AFL adopted a process in which a panel of three medical specialists assesses a player and makes a recommendation to assist decision-making about future participation.

Triggered by a referral from the club doctor, each panel member examines and assesses the athlete. They see the player, review all notes from the team doctor, along with the player’s medical history, reports and records, including scans and test results.

If required, further testing is done.

The panel aims to reach a medical consensus – all experts agreeing on the outcome, either recommending retirement or a follow-up. A consensus is important as it reduces the risk of an athlete “shopping around” to get a favourable result if they want to continue playing.

The model is similar to that in workers’ compensation assessments but instead of assessing compensation, it’s about assessing fitness to continue playing.

Medical and legal risks of continuing

The AFL’s medical expert panel provides a recommendation to the player, but the ultimate decision rests with the athlete.

If the athlete chooses to ignore medical advice and continue to play, then there could be legal factors to consider for the player, their club and the club doctor.

As an employee of a club, an athlete is bound to comply with the legal obligations under the player’s employment contract and the collective bargaining agreement.

A common obligation involves being fit to play and an obligation to follow medical advice from club doctors and club-appointed health professionals. If a player elects to continue to play despite medical advice to the contrary, they could be risking a breach of contract.

In the context of the club as an employer, workplace-related issues could arise in regard to obligations of health and safety processes and compliance.

For club doctors and clinicians, Michael Turner – medical director of The International Concussion and Head Injury Research Foundation – and colleagues developed a framework to assist clinician decision-making in complex cases.

But another legal issue to consider is the assumption of the risk – if a player ignores medical advice, they bear the responsibility and assume the risk of harm.

Creating a ‘concussion smart’ future

Murphy and the other brave players who tell their stories raise public awareness and help people understand that these are serious matters.

Instead of wearing a “badge on honour” to play on through injuries at the expense of future health, these athletes are playing a pivotal role in reshaping the narrative.

Their stories and willingness to publicly share the toughest of decisions deserve recognition, making a major contribution to Australia’s “concussion smart” future.

Annette Greenhow received funding as part of a Partnership Development Grant administered by the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Committee,.She is affiliated with the Australian and New Zealand Sports Law Association. Views are her own.

– ref. What is the process of an athlete being ‘medically retired’ due to concussion? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-process-of-an-athlete-being-medically-retired-due-to-concussion-229710

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Scott, Professor of Health Economics, Monash University

Deciding whether to wait and see if your health condition improves or go to a GP can be a difficult task. You might be unsure about where to go, whom to see, how much it will cost and whether you’ll need to take time off work.

These choices can create significant barriers to accessing health care in Australia. There is often limited information available about the pros and cons of the different options. Often, we stick to what we know, unaware of better alternatives.

But making the wrong decision about how to access care can impact both your health and finances. So what are your options? And what policy reforms are needed to improve affordable access to care for all Australians?

How quickly can I be seen?

Access depends on how long it takes you to speak to a GP, or be seen in an emergency department, or by a community pharmacist, or a nurse practitioner whom you can see directly. Access depends on where you live and the time of day.

The rise of telehealth means GPs now get paid to talk to you on the phone, which is great for many minor ailments, medical certificates, repeat scripts or getting test results. Call centres such as Healthdirect have been available for some time and now virtual emergency departments can also see you online.

There are even GPs who only provide their services online if you can pay. A phone call can save you valuable time. Before COVID, you needed to take half a day off work to see a GP, now it takes five to ten minutes and the GP even calls you.

Things get more tricky outside of normal working hours and at weekends – appointments are harder to come by, it is unlikely you will be able to see a GP whom you know, and out-of-pocket costs might be higher.

If you can’t wait, your local emergency department is likely to be more accessible, or you might be lucky enough to live near a bulk-billed Medicare urgent care clinic, where you don’t need an appointment. Tomorrow’s federal budget will include funding for another 29 urgent care clinics, on top of the 58 already operating.

But things are much worse if you live if a rural or remote area, where choice is limited and you need to wait much longer for GP appointments or travel long distances. Telehealth helps but can be expensive if it is not with your usual doctor.

Who will I see?

Access depends on who you will see. At the moment, this will usually be your GP (or, depending on the severity of your health concern, your community pharmacist or local emergency department staff). But to see your preferred GP you might need to wait as they are usually very busy.

But a review of “scope of practice” in primary care aims to free up GPs’ time and use their skills more effectively.

So in future, you could receive more of your health care from qualified nurses, nurse practitioners, pharmacists and other health professionals.

But which tasks can be delegated to other health professionals is a significant bone of contention for GPs. For GP practices facing significant cost pressures, safely delegating tasks to other less costly health professionals also makes good business sense.

Read more:
We’re only using a fraction of health workers’ skills. This needs to change

How much will it cost?

Access depends on out-of-pocket costs. Bulk billing of GP services reached a peak of 89.6% in the September quarter of 2022 but plummeted to 76.5% by the September quarter of 2023.

Last November, bulk billing incentives for children under 16 and those on concession cards were tripled, and between November and December 2023 bulk billing had increased from 76.5% to 77.7%.

They key issue for patients is that it remains uncertain whether a GP will bulk bill you. You often don’t know this until you get into the consultation, at which point you can’t back out. Unless the whole practice bulk bills and so it is guaranteed, it’s entirely up to the GP whether you are bulk billed. It’s difficult to think of any other service where you don’t know how much you will pay until after you have used it.

How can policymakers improve access to care?

Government policies to strengthen primary care have focused on giving patients improved access through telehealth, urgent care clinics and Strengthening Medicare initiatives, which are currently being developed.

But uncertainty surrounding out-of-pocket costs can deter people from seeking medical attention, or delay care or go instead to the emergency department or urgent care clinic where there is no out-of-pocket cost.

Cost is a factor that leads to 20% of those with a mental health problem and 30% of those with chronic disease to delay or avoid visiting a health professional. Those most in need are more likely to miss out on necessary visits and prescriptions, sometimes with disastrous consequences. A recent study shows people can die if they stop heart medications due to increased out-of-pocket costs.

The next task for policymakers should be developing policies to guarantee there are no out-of-pocket costs for those on low incomes. This could be a worthwhile investment in our health and should be included in tomorrow’s budget.

Anthony Scott is currently a member of the Strengthening Medicare Implementation Oversight Committee and the Expert Advisory Panel for the Review of General Practice Incentives and the Review of Primary Care After Hours Programs for the Department of Health and Aged Care for which he receives sitting fees. The views are those of the author and not the Department of Health and Aged Care.

– ref. It’s so hard to see a doctor right now. What are my options? – https://theconversation.com/its-so-hard-to-see-a-doctor-right-now-what-are-my-options-229191

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jodi Gardner, Professor, Law School, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Last week’s headlines warning of electricity shortfalls brought the issue of access to energy into (increasingly chilly) homes around the country.

The threat of power cuts due to an unseasonable cold snap and low wind generation was averted by a nationwide effort to reduce consumption. But winter has not even begun in earnest.

Ensuring households can access fuel to warm living areas of the home has been ranked a basic human right by scholars, advocates and some at the United Nations. In a recent survey in the United Kingdom, 97% of survey respondents classified it as a “necessity” to live an adequate life.

And yet an estimated 40,000 New Zealand households had their power cut due to unpaid bills in 2023. And one in five had trouble paying their monthly power bill.

How have we ended up with so many people unable to access such a basic necessity – particularly when energy companies are making near-record margins? Meridian, Contact, Genesis and Mercury made a combined NZ$2.7 billion profit in the 2023 financial year.

The answer goes back to New Zealand’s market structures and the fact so many basic necessities – food, housing and electricity – are provided by private companies.

The rise in fuel poverty

Fuel poverty (also known as fuel hardship) is an ongoing challenge in Aotearoa New Zealand – particularly when it comes to heating.

According to the UK government, a household experiences fuel poverty if it has to spend more than 10% of the total household income on electricity, gas and other fuels to achieve a satisfactory indoor environment. This is defined as meaning at least 21°C in the living areas and 18°C in other parts of the house.

The situation has been exacerbated by COVID-19, increasing inequality, and the cost-of-living crisis.

According to the government, 110,000 households could not afford to keep their house adequately warm in 2022. Māori and Pacific households, renters and low-income households were more likely to experience hardship.

Inadequately heating homes, or having to disconnect electricity, does not just mean people are cold. There are many related, serious social, health and economic consequences.

Damp and mould become a problem, children do not get adequate nutrition due to money going on heating, people’s physical and mental health conditions worsen, food in fridges and freezers can spoil.

According to Consumer NZ, 19% of households had trouble paying their monthly power bill in 2023 but still didn’t meet the threshold of “energy hardship”. Those in dire straits can apply for a Work and Income grant. But these are essentially a loan and can cause financial strain while being repaid.

Private responsibility for a public problem

The political system has almost completely wiped its hands of any overriding duty to ensure people have access to electricity. Instead, it is provided through a contract between the consumer and the energy company.

If someone cannot afford to pay their electricity bill, they run the risk of being judged for not being financially responsible and forced to pay additional disconnection (and reconnection) fees. This approach ignores the fact that the minimum wage rose by only 2% in April but inflation sat at 4% in the first quarter of 2024.

The problem is exacerbated by significant fluctuations in the cost of electricity. This is based on both wholesale cost and the amount of electricity used by households. As the country heads into winter, hundreds of thousands may not be able to heat their homes adequately.

The government has previously offered piecemeal solutions, such as the (now disbanded) Warmer Kiwi Homes programme. A small number of the most vulnerable households also receive up to $31.82 per week to help pay for electricity.

But the statistics on struggling households and financial hardship around the country show these responses are really only a drop in the bucket.

The ‘social tarrif’ solution

One solution would be to return to state ownership of electricity, but that is far from realistic in this political environment.

A simpler – and more appropriately targeted – approach is to implement “social tariffs” for electricity. These are targeted discount energy deals funded by the government for qualifying low-income consumers.

There are examples of social tariffs being used overseas to reduce the harm being caused by profit-driven companies operating in essential sectors.

In the UK, for example, a number of private telecommunications providers have voluntarily chosen to implement subsidised social tariffs for broadband and telephone for people on certain welfare benefits. This is because access to the internet, like electricity, is seen as a basic human right in developed countries.

In light of the profits being made by New Zealand’s biggest energy providers, a serious reconsideration of the system is surely justified. Cost-of-living pressures are ongoing, while temperatures are falling.

If we believe energy is a human right, and all New Zealand houses deserve to be comfortable this winter, now would be the time to act.

I am a co-author with Mia Gray and have worked with her on a number of projects on this topic

– ref. NZ’s big chill was an early winter warning: power should be subsidised for struggling households – https://theconversation.com/nzs-big-chill-was-an-early-winter-warning-power-should-be-subsidised-for-struggling-households-229795

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jess Carniel, Associate professor in Humanities, University of Southern Queensland

Every year claims to be the most controversial year in the Eurovision Song Contest’s history, but it will take a lot to beat the 68th contest.

The 2024 Eurovision contest, which took place in Malmö, Sweden, was marked by conflict, boycotts, protests, harassment and disqualification. Ironically, it was also the year the organisers, the European Broadcasting Union, chose to establish a permanent slogan: United By Music.

Upon announcing the slogan in late 2023, Eurovision’s executive supervisor, Martin Österdahl, said:

By establishing a permanent slogan, we will have consistency in our message that music unites us all. It’s the perfect slogan to underline our values of inclusivity, equality, universality and celebrating diversity through music.

But the backdrop of the October 7 attacks by Hamas on southern Israel and the ongoing war in Gaza have cast a long shadow over Eurovision 2024.

Calls for Israel’s exclusion

Despite the implicit politics of Eurovision’s new slogan, the contest maintains it is a non-political event. Participating broadcasters and artists are required to ensure the contest is not

[…] politicised and/or instrumentalised and/or otherwise brought into disrepute in any way.

But is it possible for a contest of nations to be non-political?

Just as the conflict in Gaza has divided the international community, Eurovision fans, artists and broadcasters were also divided regarding Israel’s participation.

The Palestinian Campaign for the Academic and Cultural Boycott of Israel, a founding member of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, called for “all participating broadcasters, national competitors, finalists, production crews and viewers” to boycott the event.

Numerous open letters, co-signed by members of the creative industries, were also published in the lead-up to the contest. Some called for Israel to be excluded and/or the event to be boycotted, while others expressed support for Israel and for the contest as a “celebration of unity”.

Many compared the situation to 2022, when Russia was excluded from the contest following its invasion of Ukraine. In response, the European Broadcasting Union emphasised “the Eurovision Song Contest is a competition for broadcasters” (not states), and the Russian broadcasters were suspended from the organisation and contest for “repeated violations of membership obligations and violation of the rules of the public media”.

So as long as KAN, the Israeli broadcaster, adhered to the membership and contest rules, it would be permitted to remain in the contest.

Some suggest the broadcasting union’s decision itself has brought the contest into disrepute, while an anonymous X account has dedicated itself to documenting allegations against KAN regarding adherence to the rules.

Netherlands gets disqualified

Further controversy emerged in the 24 hours ahead of the grand final broadcast. The Dutch act was disqualified for inappropriate behaviour towards a member of the Swedish production team. The European Broadcasting Union said it maintained

a zero-tolerance policy toward inappropriate behaviour […] and are committed to providing a safe and secure working environment for all staff at the contest.

With this affirmation of policy in mind, prior to the dress rehearsal, Irish artist Bambie Thug lodged a complaint
against the Israeli commentators over remarks made during their performance, claiming they breached the rules of the contest. Bambie Thug also said they had been harassed by Israeli fans.

The 2024 grand final opened with two powerhouse countries: Sweden and Ukraine. Sweden was represented by Norwegian twins Marcus & Martinus and their song Unforgettable, while Ukraine’s alonya alyona & Jerry Heil sang the powerful Teresa & Maria.

Together with Luxembourg, which returned to the contest for the first time since 1994, Ukraine is the only country to maintain a 100% grand final qualification record.

Victory for Switzerland

Israel performed fifth. Eden Golan’s song, Hurricane, was entered into the contest following two revisions of the lyrics to remove political references, including its original title, October Rain (a reference to the October 7 attack).

The crowd’s fractured response was audible in the broadcast, and footage posted by audience members on social media provides evidence of widespread booing. Despite this reaction in the arena, Israel placed second in the public televote.

Israel was surpassed in the popular vote by crowd favourite Baby Lasagna, from Croatia. Rim Tim Tagi Dim is a catchy metal song about the impact of economic emigration on young Croatians, their connection to family and their cultural identity.

However, despite leading the betting odds for most of the contest season, Croatia was pipped at the post by jury favourite, The Code, by Nemo from Switzerland. They are the first non-binary artist to win the contest, notably with an artistically impressive and engaging celebration of their non-binary gender identity.

In their victory speech, Nemo said:

I hope this contest can live up to its promise and continue to stand for peace and dignity for every person in this world.

With Nemo’s victory, next year’s hosting duties are passed on to Switzerland, the home of the European Broadcasting Union. The country last won the contest in 1988, when it was represented by a little-known French-Canadian artist named Celine Dion. It also hosted (and won) the first Eurovision contest in 1956.

Tensions run high

Many are questioning Eurovision’s future. Österdahl was almost drowned out by audience boos while verifying the results. A planned skit dedicated to him was cut from the final broadcast, as was the use of the Dutch song title, Europapa, to introduce him.

The audience response to Österdahl is illustrative of the growing disquiet among fans and member broadcasters with the union’s management of the contest. This includes concerns about its partner sponsors (such as Israeli company Moroccanoil), whether it’s effectively safeguarding freedom of the press, and doubts about its capacity to maintain the contest as “non-political”.

The stakes are now high for the union, in collaboration with the Swiss broadcaster SRG SSR, to convince the world it can be united in music after all.

Read more:
Hind’s Hall is Macklemore’s bold new pro-Palestine anthem. What might it actually achieve?

Jess Carniel is currently a Research Fellow at the USC Center on Public Diplomacy.

– ref. Boycotts, protests, harassment: Eurovision’s future is on the line after its most controversial year yet – https://theconversation.com/boycotts-protests-harassment-eurovisions-future-is-on-the-line-after-its-most-controversial-year-yet-229369

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Schmidt, Professor of Chemistry, UNSW Sydney

Last week, a huge solar flare sent a wave of energetic particles from the Sun surging out through space. Over the weekend, the wave reached Earth, and people around the world enjoyed the sight of unusually vivid aurora in both hemispheres.

While the aurora is normally only visible close to the poles, this weekend it was spotted as far south as Hawaii in the northern hemisphere, and as far north as Mackay in the south.

This spectacular spike in auroral activity appears to have ended, but don’t worry if you missed out. The Sun is approaching the peak of its 11-year sunspot cycle, and periods of intense aurora are likely to return over the next year or so.

If you saw the aurora, or any of the photos, you might be wondering what exactly was going on. What makes the glow, and the different colours? The answer is all about atoms, how they get excited – and how they relax.

When electrons meet the atmosphere

The auroras are caused by charged subatomic particles (mostly electrons) smashing into Earth’s atmosphere. These are emitted from the Sun all the time, but there are more during times of greater solar activity.

Most of our atmosphere is protected from the influx of charged particles by Earth’s magnetic field. But near the poles, they can sneak in and wreak havoc.

Earth’s atmosphere is about 20% oxygen and 80% nitrogen, with some trace amounts of other things like water, carbon dioxide (0.04%) and argon.

When high-speed electrons smash into oxygen molecules in the upper atmosphere, they split the oxygen molecules (O₂) into individual atoms. Ultraviolet light from the Sun does this too, and the oxygen atoms generated can react with O₂ molecules to produce ozone (O₃), the molecule that protects us from harmful UV radiation.

But, in the case of the aurora, the oxygen atoms generated are in an excited state. This means the atoms’ electrons are arranged in an unstable way that can “relax” by giving off energy in the form of light.

What makes the green light?

As you see in fireworks, atoms of different elements produce different colours of light when they are energised.

Copper atoms give a blue light, barium is green, and sodium atoms produce a yellow–orange colour that you may also have seen in older street lamps. These emissions are “allowed” by the rules of quantum mechanics, which means they happen very quickly.

When a sodium atom is in an excited state it only stays there for around 17 billionths of a second before firing out a yellow–orange photon.

But, in the aurora, many of the oxygen atoms are created in excited states with no “allowed” ways to relax by emitting light. Nevertheless, nature finds a way.

The green light that dominates the aurora is emitted by oxygen atoms relaxing from a state called “¹S” to a state called “¹D”. This is a relatively slow process, which on average takes almost a whole second.

In fact, this transition is so slow it won’t usually happen at the kind of air pressure we see at ground level, because the excited atom will have lost energy by bumping into another atom before it has a chance to send out a lovely green photon. But in the atmosphere’s upper reaches, where there is lower air pressure and therefore fewer oxygen molecules, they have more time before bumping into one another and therefore have a chance to release a photon.

For this reason, it took scientists a long time to figure out that the green light of the aurora was coming from oxygen atoms. The yellow–orange glow of sodium was known in the 1860s, but it wasn’t until the 1920s that Canadian scientists figured out the auroral green was due to oxygen.

What makes the red light?

The green light comes from a so-called “forbidden” transition, which happens when an electron in the oxygen atom executes an unlikely leap from one orbital pattern to another. (Forbidden transitions are much less probable than allowed ones, which means they take longer to occur.)

However, even after emitting that green photon, the oxygen atom finds itself in yet another excited state with no allowed relaxation. The only escape is via another forbidden transition, from the ¹D to the ³P state – which emits red light.

This transition is even more forbidden, so to speak, and the ¹D state has to survive for about about two minutes before it can finally break the rules and give off red light. Because it takes so long, the red light only appears at high altitudes, where the collisions with other atoms and molecules are scarce.

Also, because there is such a small amount of oxygen up there, the red light tends to appear only in intense auroras – like the ones we have just had.

This is why the red light appears above the green. While they both originate in forbidden relaxations of oxygen atoms, the red light is emitted much more slowly and has a higher chance of being extinguished by collisions with other atoms at lower altitudes.

Other colours, and why cameras see them better

While green is the most common colour to see in the aurora, and red the second most common, there are also other colours. In particular, ionised nitrogen molecules (N₂⁺, which are missing one electron and have a positive electrical charge), can emit blue and red light. This can produce a magenta hue at low altitudes.

All these colours are visible to the naked eye if the aurora is bright enough. However, they show up with more intensity in the camera lens.

There are two reasons for this. First, cameras have the benefit of a long exposure, which means they can spend more time collecting light to produce an image than our eyes can. As a result, they can make a picture in dimmer conditions.

The second is that the colour sensors in our eyes don’t work very well in the dark – so we tend to see in black and white in low light conditions. Cameras don’t have this limitation.

Not to worry, though. When the aurora is bright enough, the colours are clearly visible to the naked eye.

Read more:
What are auroras, and why do they come in different shapes and colours? Two experts explain

Timothy Schmidt receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.

– ref. What causes the different colours of the aurora? An expert explains the electric rainbow – https://theconversation.com/what-causes-the-different-colours-of-the-aurora-an-expert-explains-the-electric-rainbow-229899