Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Trivess Moore, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University

Burning gas in our homes to cook food or heat air and water has become a contentious issue. Gas is an expensive, polluting fossil fuel, and there’s mounting evidence to suggest it’s also bad for our health.

Five million existing Australian households will need to get off gas within the next 30 years. But for homeowners, the upfront cost can be a major barrier to action. Renters rarely get a say over the appliances installed in their homes. And apartment owners can struggle to make individual changes too.

In most cases it’s worth making the switch, for the energy bill savings alone. For example, analysis suggests a household in Melbourne switching from gas to electricity can save up to A$13,900 over a decade.

If you’re contemplating upgrading gas appliances in your home, or even disconnecting from the gas network altogether, here are a few handy tips and resources to cut through the confusion.

Read more:
Keen to get off gas in your home, but struggling to make the switch? Research shows you’re not alone

Tip 1 – Find trusted, independent information

There is no shortage of information on how to make the switch from gas to all-electric appliances. The challenge is finding trusted and independent information.

Not-for-profit organisation Renew has compiled a range of presentations, guides, case studies and research. Choice provides independent reviews of household appliances, including operating costs. The Australian government’s Energy Rating website provides information on appliances to help consumers compare performance. Some local councils and community groups also provide information, support and bulk-buying schemes.

You could also visit some of the all-electric homes open to the public for Sustainable House Day. This can help you learn what works from people who have already made the change.

The My Efficient Electric Home group on Facebook is another active and helpful forum.

If you are going all-electric as part of a wider retrofit, consider an independent Residential Efficiency Scorecard assessment. This will help you understand what to else you can do to maximise thermal comfort, environmental benefits and financial outcomes.

Tip 2 – Plan your approach

Once you understand what to do, the next step is planning how to go about it. Think about what is most important to your household. What is driving the change? If it’s your health, you might like to start by eliminating indoor air pollution from the gas stove. Or if you want to save money, start using reverse-cycle air conditioning to heat your home, rather than gas.

There are three main ways to go all-electric:

• Replace all your gas appliances at once. Making the change quickly minimises disruption to your home. You may save money on installation costs by doing everything in one go. You will avoid ongoing fixed gas supply charges once you disconnect from the gas network, but you may be required to pay an “abolishment fee” for permanent disconnection. That fee can vary significantly, depending on your location and gas provider. Costs could be up to $1000 (or more) but some states like Victoria have capped the price a household can be charged at $220. Renters wouldn’t be able to permanently disconnect without permission from the landlord, so they would still be open to paying the daily connection fee even if they found alternative electric options for everything else.

• Replace your gas appliances one at a time, as finances allow. However, there will come a point where financially you will be better off replacing all the remaining gas appliances. This is largely because it will not be affordable to keep paying the daily connection cost for gas if you just have one gas appliance remaining.

• Just stop using gas appliances in favour of existing electric appliances that do the same job, such as a reverse cycle air conditioner for space heating. You may have – or can buy – plug-in electric alternatives, such as a microwave ovens, portable induction cooktops, air fryers and heaters. These can be a good option for renters when landlords won’t make changes.

Read more:
Cooking (and heating) without gas: what are the impacts of shifting to all-electric homes?

You could even borrow portable appliances to see how they work before committing to buying your own.

Tip 3 – Access available rebates and resources

Most states offer various rebates for households to reduce the upfront cost of replacing gas appliances. These could reduce costs by thousands of dollars. Some rebates also target rental housing. Here is a list of key rebates available in different states:

• Queensland
• New South Wales
• ACT
• Victoria
• Tasmania
• South Australia

Some not-for-profit organisations (such as the Brotherhood of St Laurence) offer financial and other support for lower-income households struggling to pay their energy bills.

Read more:
Want an easy $400 a year? Ditch the gas heater in your home for an electric split system

Tip 4 – Wait for a sale or negotiate a better deal

It might sound simple but you can always save money by waiting until these electric appliances are on sale. If you are buying multiple appliances you can try to negotiate a better price. Factory seconds outlets offer lower prices as well.

Tip 5 – Know the issues

While the shift to all-electric will likely provide many benefits there are some things you need to consider:

• The carbon emissions from electricity are falling fast, and many homes have rooftop solar. Combining all-electric with solar panels will maximise returns.
• You may have to adjust to how new technologies operate and perform. For example, you may need new, metallic cookware for an induction cooktop and become familiar with their fast response. Additionally, some people find heat from reverse cycle air conditioners to be drier and/or draughtier than gas heating. Floor-mounted units heat more effectively.
• It is not just the energy performance of appliances that matters. For example, noise from heat pump hot water services can vary across different brands. They can also require more space for installation.
• Undertaking a wider energy retrofit (for example, increasing insulation in walls, ceiling and underfloor, upgrading windows to double glazing) may mean you can buy a smaller, cheaper reverse cycle air conditioner when replacing gas heating.
• Electric appliances also need maintenance to make sure they perform optimally. For example, reverse cycle air conditioners have filters that must be regularly cleaned. While this can be done by households, it can be hard for people with mobility issues.
• Depending on the capacity of your electricity switchboard or wiring, extra electric appliances may require upgrades.
• For renters, while you could use portable appliances, you may not be able to disconnect from gas completely, meaning you would still have to pay a daily connection fee.
• Gas and electricity prices can change over time, for many reasons. For example, if fixed gas distribution costs are spread over fewer customers.

A worthwhile investment

Australian states and territories have started banning gas in new builds. Victoria and the ACT will soon require new housing and major renovations to be all-electric. Others are likely to follow.

For people in existing housing around Australia, it can be daunting to make the switch. Many of us have grown up with gas in our homes and when one appliance breaks, the easiest thing to do is replace like-for-like. But the weight of evidence shows it’s worth taking the time to look at the alteratives and invest in upgrading to all-electric appliances. The benefits far outweigh the costs.

Read more:
All-electric homes are better for your hip pocket and the planet. Here’s how governments can help us get off gas

Trivess Moore has received funding from various organisations including the Australian Research Council, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Victorian Government and various industry partners. He is a trustee of the Fuel Poverty Research Network.

Alan Pears consults to and advises a number of not-for-profit organisations involved in transition from gas issues such as the Australian Alliance for Energy Productivity, Energy Efficiency Council, Renew. He has received funding from A2EP, EEC and Energy Consumers Australia for work in this area. He writes a regular column for Renew magazine, and for other websites such as Reneweconomy and thefifthestate.

Nicola Willand receives or has received funding for research from various organisations, including the Australian Research Council, the Victorian State Government, the Lord Mayor’s Charitable Foundation, the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, the Future Fuels Collaborative Research Centre, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Centre and the British Academy. She is affiliated with the Australian Institute of Architects.

– ref. 5 tips for getting off gas at home – for a cleaner, cheaper, healthier all-electric future – https://theconversation.com/5-tips-for-getting-off-gas-at-home-for-a-cleaner-cheaper-healthier-all-electric-future-211261

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olivia Groves, Adjunct Research Fellow, Curtin University

We want all students to finish school with the literacy and numeracy skills they need to take advantage of post-school opportunities and to participate fully in society. Currently, in Australia, many students don’t.

The problem of not meeting learning standards starts early, with some students behind in Year 3. An important question is whether these students eventually catch up to their peers.

Our new research, published today by the Australian Education Research Organisation (AER0), indicates this is very difficult to do.

We found less than one in five students who are behind in Year 3 catch up and stay caught up. In fact, most students with early low performance are at risk of not meeting learning standards throughout their schooling with the support they currently get.

Read more:
NAPLAN results inform schools, parents and policy. But too many kids miss the tests altogether

It’s hard to catch up

Our research looked at what happens to students who perform at or below the national minimum standards in literacy and numeracy in the Year 3 NAPLAN tests.

We chose “at or below the the national minimum standards” as a cut off point for not meeting learning standards because there is widespread agreement the standards for NAPLAN tests before 2023 were set too low.

Using a new longitudinal NAPLAN data set, we tracked the performance of about 190,000 students who performed at or below the national minimum standards in Year 3 through to Year 9. These students were in Year 3 between 2009 and 2015.

The performance pathways these Year 3 students experience in NAPLAN reading tests is shown in the diagram below. The picture is similar for numeracy.

As the diagram shows, we found a little over a third of the Year 3 students with low performance continued to perform below standards through to Year 9. Almost half of the group performed inconsistently through to Year 9.

This shows Year 3 students who perform below learning standards are at a high risk of continuing to perform at that level throughout their schooling.

We also found less than one fifth of students (17% in reading and 19% in numeracy) went on to perform consistently at expected levels. This means fewer than one in five students were supported to catch up to their peers.

Read more:
Too many school students are falling behind: how do we help those most at risk?

Many Year 3 kids need more support

Our analysis also shows learning gains are hard to maintain.

When students with low Year 3 performance reached learning standards in Year 5, only half of that group continued to perform that well until Year 9. The other half fell below learning standards in secondary school.

This suggests students who perform below standards in Year 3 require more support to catch up to their peers than they currently receive.

A golden opportunity early on

These patterns highlight how important it is to assess student progress early.

By knowing exactly where students are versus where they are expected to be in their learning, we can intervene with teaching and learning programs.

Of the group of students with early low performance in Year 3, the best opportunity we saw for improvement was between Year 3 and Year 5.

This is because 36.1% of the initial group of students moved to performing above national minimum standards in reading between Years 3 and 5.

This is a much higher proportion than the 28.3% that made the same change between Years 5 and 7, and the 21.2% that made this move between Years 7 and 9. There is a similar pattern for numeracy.

This suggests the best time to intervene to catch students up is as soon as they have been identified as not meeting learning expectations.

Read more:
Our research shows Australian students who are behind in primary school can catch up by high school

Small-group tutoring can help

Students who perform below expectations are not likely to catch up without extra support. These students need the best teachers, schools and education systems can offer to help them to achieve learning standards.

There is strong evidence small-group tutoring within a multi-tiered system of supports can help students who have fallen behind.

Read more:
As students return to school, small-group tutoring can help those who are falling behind

This system involves assessment of student learning gaps and the delivery of frequent, small-group or one-on-one interventions within the school environment, led by trained school staff.

Any student learning interventions, of course, must also be monitored and assessed to see if they’re effective.

Our findings offer an opportunity to investigate the impact of interventions on students’ literacy and numeracy performance.

This can help identify the best ways to improve outcomes for those least likely to finish school with the literacy and numeracy skills they need.

Our research also involved AERO’s Dr Lisa Williams, Dr Wai Yin Wan and Dr Eunro Lee.

Olivia Groves is a Principal Researcher for the Australian Education Research Organisation (AERO).

Lucy Lu is the Senior Manager, Analytics and Strategic Projects for the Australian Education Research Organisation (AERO).

– ref. Fewer than 1 in 5 students who are behind in Year 3 catch up and stay caught up – https://theconversation.com/fewer-than-1-in-5-students-who-are-behind-in-year-3-catch-up-and-stay-caught-up-211516

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

This article is part of The Conversation’s series examining Australia’s cost of living crisis.

Every day the higher price of seemingly everything is mentioned in the news or in conversations with friends and acquaintances.

The impact is clear as we are required to pay more for most things from our weekly shop and power bills, to filling the car and swimming lessons.

So what is the cost of living and how is it measured?

The “cost of living” refers to the prices people need to pay to meet their needs in their everyday lives.

The most commonly cited measure is the Consumer Price Index compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

This represents the price of a fixed basket of goods and services. The items in the basket reflect the spending of metropolitan households. Each item is given a weight corresponding to its share in the spending of these households. The CPI does not include the price of land or financial assets such as shares.

The rate of change of prices is known as inflation.

Inflation rose sharply in the 1970s, especially after the oil price shocks. It took a long while to get it down. The Reserve Bank adopted an inflation target of 2-3% in the early 1990s to keep inflation low over the medium term. After a long period of low inflation, it rose sharply again during 2022.

It is now declining.

A similar pattern is seen in comparable economies such as the United States and New Zealand. The supply bottlenecks caused by COVID have eased and economic activity is slowing in response to the increases in interest rates in most economies.

Not all prices rise at the same rate

Some prices rise fairly smoothly in line with the overall CPI. Others, such as petrol and fresh food, are much more volatile.

Since 1972 the price of the CPI basket has increased almost 12-fold. But some prices have increased much more.

Cigarettes cost almost 60 times as much (reflecting increased taxes). Labour-intensive hairdressing costs 20 times as much. Prices of other goods have gone up much less, especially after Australia cut tariffs and started importing more from low-cost producers. Over the past decade the prices of clothing and computers have fallen.

People often believe inflation is higher than the CPI reports. Big price rises are more noticeable. You seldom see headlines about prices that have not changed. And when was the last time you heard a discussion about how clothing has been getting cheaper?

House prices are now more than 50 times as high as in 1972, a much larger increase than the CPI. Some of this, however, represents quality changes rather than pure price changes. The average Australian house has roughly doubled in size and may now be the largest in the world.

My inflation is not the same as yours

The CPI reflects the prices faced by an average household. About half of households will have experienced a higher increase in the prices they pay, and half will have seen a lower increase.

Different households consume different goods and services. Retirees tend to spend more on health care and less on childminding. A higher proportion of the spending of lower income households goes on necessities rather than luxuries.

For the “average” household, almost 4% of spending is on tobacco. But of course non-smokers spend nothing while heavy smokers spend much more. So that large rise in cigarette prices affects some people significantly and others not at all.

The ABS publishes some separate living cost indices. The data get much less attention, partly because they are released after the CPI. These differ from the CPI in that they include interest charges. They are also prepared relating to different classes of people.

Over the year to June 2023, the living costs of employees rose by 9.6% but those of self-funded retirees by 6.3% and age pensioners by 6.7%. The main reason for the difference was that interest rates increased and employees are more likely to have a mortgage than are retirees.

These compare to the 6% increase in the CPI over the same period.

Cost of living problem

The cost of living becomes an increasing problem when incomes, notably wages, fail to keep up with it. Over long periods of time, wages tend to grow faster than prices. The economy becomes more productive over time and the gains flow to both workers and companies.

Read more:
Underlying inflation has slipped below 6%, but is the slide enough to stop the RBA pushing up rates further?

But over shorter periods, this may not be the case. Last week’s data show wages grew by only 3.6% over the year to the June quarter. This is well below the current inflation rate of 6%. But it is around the growth in prices forecast by the Reserve Bank for the coming year.

As well as an income for workers, wages are a major cost for businesses. So if wages grow too fast, and particularly were they to accelerate, there is a risk of a wage-price spiral.

The 3.6% annual wage increase for the June quarter is slightly less than the 3.7% recorded in the March quarter. The quarterly growth rate has been steady at 0.8% for the past three quarters. If labour productivity grows close to its medium-term average, this size of wage increase should not be a concern.

If business starts to expect raw material and input prices, and prices charged by their competitors, to keep growing strongly, they will be likely to keep increasing their own prices a lot. This risks a price-price spiral.

The Reserve Bank is trying to steer the economy along what it calls a narrow path.

It hopes it has raised interest rates enough to slow the economy and return inflation to its 2-3% target within a reasonable time frame. But it hopes it has not raised them too far, which would push the economy into a recession and lead to a large rise in unemployment.

The bank’s goal is to have the cost of living rising by around 2-3% per year and incomes a bit more than this, so living standards steadily improve for all Australians over time.

John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist with the Reserve Bank and Australian Treasury.

– ref. You don’t have to be an economist to know Australia is in a cost of living crisis. What are the signs and what needs to change? – https://theconversation.com/you-dont-have-to-be-an-economist-to-know-australia-is-in-a-cost-of-living-crisis-what-are-the-signs-and-what-needs-to-change-210373

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Giblin, ARC Future Fellow; Professor; Director, Intellectual Property Research Institute of Australia, The University of Melbourne

For hundreds of years, we’ve been told patents help deliver big new inventions, such as life-saving drugs.

They are meant to be a bargain between the inventor and the public: tell us how your invention works, and we’ll give you a fixed time – a patent protection period – in which you’re the only person who can make use of it.

Such exclusive rights make it easier for inventors to profit from their investments in research and development, and in theory encourage innovation we wouldn’t get otherwise, which benefits us all.

We’ve long had to accept this bargain on faith. But those core assumptions about patents are increasingly being subject to empirical testing, and – as we detail in a new podcast starting this week – often coming up short.

Many claimed inventions likely don’t work

Consider the most basic assumption – that the public will benefit from patented technologies – both as products and services and as building blocks for more innovation. That’s meant to be achieved by inventors coming up with inventions that work, then telling the patent office how they work.

But research by Janet Freilich from Fordham University in the United States suggests there is a “replicability crisis” in patent claims that rivals those in other fields.

Freilich graded the experiments said to back up 500 life sciences patents against the requirements of the journal Nature – and found as many as 90% didn’t stack up and probably couldn’t be reproduced.

She says

patent law relies on the assumption that, when a patent is filed, it has been “reduced to practice” – meaning that the invention works. The reality is that most inventions likely do not work, casting serious doubt on this assumption.

One of the reasons is the way the patent system works.

Under the ‘first-to-file’ system, when two inventors are developing similar technologies, the inventor who gets to the patent office first gets the patent. Freilich argues this means that any experiments they do conduct will inevitably be quick and preliminary.

Worse still, only 45% of the patents she examined were backed up by any sort of experiment. The remaining 55% were supported only by speculative and hypothetical evidence. This is allowed under patent law at least in some countries, but it does raise questions about what exactly the public gets out of the system.

Research sometimes accelerates when patents expire

We’re also told we grant patents to “incentivise” (encourage and reward) the kind of work needed to get expensive products, like new drugs, to market.

But again, this theory doesn’t always match the practice.

Research led by John Liddicoat of King’s College London finds that in the development of many drugs, the most expensive trials (Phase II and Phase III) actually accelerate once patent protection expires, when universities and hospitals feel free to step in.

This raises a number of serious questions:

• why aren’t patents providing an incentive for patent holders to do these trials?

• should we shorten the length of patents to bring forward trials?

• are commercial organisations best suited for trials?

An AI-driven flood of low-quality patents

Artificial intelligence is set to make it easier to find, and perhaps automatically enforce patents, which could frighten away more genuine innovators.

Generative AI could also lead to more patents: in the words of the government agency IP Australia, it is likely to reduce “the barrier to creating novelty”. This could potentially overwhelm patent offices with even lower quality patents.

It is also likely to mean patent examiners can no longer rely on the default assumption that the claimed invention is solely the result of human exertion, raising the possibility of needing to rethink the patent bargain.

Read more:
If machines can be inventors, could AI soon monopolise technology?

Invention matters more than ever

More and more, new research and new developments are telling us we can no longer take the claims made for the patent system on faith.

Urgent challenges – including climate change, infectious diseases, political polarisation and artificial intelligence – all require cutting-edge science that can be put to work quickly and at scale to solve real-world problems.

That makes this an ideal time to talk about whether our patent system is best equipped for that task, exploring a range of options for finding and applying the innovations we need – and bringing in voices and perspectives that are too often marginalised in intellectual property debates.

These ideas are discussed in the first episode of IP Provocations, a new podcast asking challenging and sometimes controversial questions around IP and data. You can listen here, or via your favourite podcast platform.

Rebecca Giblin receives funding from the Australian Research Council and state and territory libraries for the Author’s Interest Project (authorsinterest.org; FT170100011), the eLending Project (elendingproject.org; LP160100387) and Untapped: the Australian Literary Heritage Project (untapped.org.au). She is a Fellow of the CREATe research centre at the University of Glasgow, and a member of the Author’s Alliance and the Australian Digital Alliance. Support for the podcast series referred to in this article has been provided by IP Australia, but note that IP Australia has no editorial control over the content of the podcast.

Support for the podcast series referred to in this article has been provided by IP Australia, but note that IP Australia has no editorial control over the content of the podcast.

Kimberlee Weatherall receives funding from the Australian Research Council, including as a Chief Investigator in the ARC Centre of Excellence on Automated Decision-Making and Society (ADM+S) (CE200100005). She is also involved in a number of research projects with external funding relating to artificial intelligence and automation. Her research is supported via funding and in-kind contributions by the NSW Ombudsman, the Gradient Institute and IAG. Support for the podcast series referred to in this article has been provided by IP Australia, but note that IP Australia has no editorial control over the content of the podcast.

– ref. Patents were meant to reward inventions. It’s time to talk about how they might not – https://theconversation.com/patents-were-meant-to-reward-inventions-its-time-to-talk-about-how-they-might-not-211518

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Australia’s care economy could increase from its present about 8% of GDP to about 15% in 40 years, according to the government’s Intergenerational Report, to be released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Thursday.

The projections say in four decades’ time Australians will be living longer, with more years in good health – but the larger cohort of aged people will increase the need for care.

By 2062-63, life expectancy for men is projected to be 87 years (currently 81.3), and for women 89.5 (85.2).

Australia’s population is expected to grow at a slower rate in the coming four decades than in any 40 year period since federation, according to the report, prepared by the federal treasury. By 2062-63 Australia would have a population of 40.5 million.

The Intergenerational Report puts a long lens on the nation’s future, looking at the implications of demographic changes and covering a broad range of economic and social areas. The first report was done under the Howard government and the most recent in 2021. While these reports are important for policy makers in identifying trends and signposting looming problems, they are also limited by the extended time frame and the inevitability of changing circumstances and different policies.

This year’s report again highlights the economic and budgetary issues presented by an ageing population. The combination of increased longevity and low fertility means Australia will continue to age over the next four decades. “The number of people aged 65 and over will more than double and the number aged 85 and over will more than triple,” the report says. This will make for “an ongoing economic and fiscal challenge”.

“The average annual population growth rate is projected to slow to 1.1% over the next 40 years, compared to 1.4% for the past 40 years,” the report says. “Australia’s population is projected to reach 40.5 million in 2062–63.”

Present projections are for the number of health care and social assistance workers to increase by 15.8% from 2021 to 2026. The former National Skills Commission projected the demand for aged care workers alone was expected to double by 2050.

Chalmers said the report showed growth in the care economy “is set to be one of the most prominent shifts in our society” over the period, with the care sectors playing a bigger role in driving growth.

“Whether it’s health care, aged care, disabilities or early childhood education – we’ll need more well-trained workers to meet the growing demand for quality care over the next 40 years. The care sector is where the lion’s share of opportunities in our economy will be created,” he said.

The report projects population growth to fall to 0.8% in 2062–63.

Both migration and natural increase are expected to fall relative to the size of the population. Net migration is assumed at 235,000 a year.

“The 2023–24 Budget forecast that net overseas migration will recover in the near term due to the temporary catch‑up from the pandemic. It is expected to largely return to normal patterns from 2024-25. Even with the near‑term recovery, on current forecasts, cumulative net overseas migration would not catch up to pre‑pandemic levels until 2029-30,” the report says.

“Over the next 40 years, net overseas migration is expected to account for 0.7 percentage points of Australia’s average annual population growth, falling from 1.0 percentage points in 2024–25 to 0.6 percentage points by 2062–63.”

On budgetary pressures, the report follows a familiar theme. “The main five long‑term spending pressures are health and aged care, the NDIS, defence, and interest payments on Government debt. Combined, these spending categories are projected to increase by 5.6 percentage points of GDP over the 40 years from 2022–23 to 2062–63.”

On the crucial issue of productivity, which has languished for years, the report downgrades the assumption for productivity growth “from its 30-year average of around 1.5% to the recent 20-year average of around 1.2%.

“Placing more weight on recent history better reflects headwinds to productivity growth, such as continued structural change towards service industries, the costs of climate change, and diminishing returns from past reforms. This downgrade is consistent with forecasts in other advanced economies.”

The report points to areas where there are opportunities to lift productivity growth.

These include reforms to reduce entry and exist barriers for firms, facilitating the diffusion of technology, and encouraging labour mobility. It also highlights the potential of digital innovations, including artificial intelligence.

On human capital, the report says, “The jobs of the future will require increasingly specialised skillsets and there is potential to support Australians at all stages of their human capital development. Promotion of foundational skills – such as in literacy and numeracy – at an early age will facilitate participation in the expanding knowledge economy over the next 40 years.”

Chalmers said the report “will make the critical point that the trajectory or productivity growth in the future is not a foregone conclusion, and it will depend on how we respond to the big shifts impacting our economy”.

Meanwhile the Business Council of Australia is unveiling a reform plan, titled Seize the Moment, for ways to reverse Australia’s “productivity slump” and boost competitiveness. It claims if implemented the reform package would “leave each Australian $7000 better off a year after a decade”.

Among its multiple proposals, the BCA says there should be “broad-based reform of the tax system to minimise distortions and increase incentives to invest, innovate and hire”.

It also says federal and state governments should commit to a “10-year national net zero roadmap based on a whole-of-system approach to decarbonising the economy to 2050”. It calls for more action to increase women’s economic participation, a more flexible industrial relations system, “a coherent system of lifelong learning”, and an agenda for microeconomic reform.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Care’ economy to balloon in an Australia of 40.5 million: Intergenerational Report – https://theconversation.com/care-economy-to-balloon-in-an-australia-of-40-5-million-intergenerational-report-211876

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Labor this week had its first face-to-face national conference in five years, and it all went Anthony Albanese’s way. He won on AUKUS and rallied the party faithful, who did not rock the government’s boat.

For this podcast we caught up with the new Western Australian Premier Roger Cook on the sidelines of the conference, and canvassed a range of issues, including his recent backdown on the state’s cultural heritage law.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: WA Premier Roger Cook on Labor’s conference and his state’s issues – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-wa-premier-roger-cook-on-labors-conference-and-his-states-issues-211836

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Predictably, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese got his way on AUKUS at Labor’s national conference on Friday.

But, ironically, he and his colleagues had to do a good deal more wrangling with the party than Albanese had done when Labor embraced the agreement in opposition and then followed through in government.

After Scott Morrison, US President Joe Biden and then-british Prime minister Boris Johnson announced AUKUS, Albanese had the then opposition quickly fall in behind it, in line with his small target election strategy.

When implementation fell to the Labor government, again there was no hesitation. But extensive unease about AUKUS has been rippling around the Labor rank and file. Paul Keating articulated the sentiment strongly a long time ago.

In the run up to the national conference, Defence Minister Richard Marles and other Labor heavyweights have been taking soundings and smoothing the waters where possible. Marles briefed unions and rank and file party members as the conference loomed.

Intense negotiations among factional movers and shakers continued right up until the last minute.

On the conference floor, the vote was clear. It was taken on the voices.

They didn’t even bother with a formal count (although anyone could have asked for one). That was the way the power brokers wanted things – it left no record of precise numbers.

Like almost everything at this conference, the AUKUS debate was carefully orchestrated.

Albanese came in at the end to make the final pitch. He told delegates that AUKUS “is an act of clear-eyed pragmatism that works in the context of our national interest and in the context of the greater good.”
AUKUS involved “the choices of a mature nation.”

“We have to analyse the world as it is, rather than as we would want it to be. We have to bring our defence capabilities up to speed and AUKUS is central to that.” He said.

“I have come to the position, based upon advice and analysis, that nuclear-powered submarines are what Australia needs in the future”.

Government advocates put AUKUS in the context of Labor’s track record on defence.

The name of Labor icon and second world war prime minister John Curtin was invoked for some heavy-lifting for AUKUS. Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy said Curtin had argued in the 1930s for increases in the Australian air force and navy, and contrasted this with the stand of Robert Menzies.

“Do you want to be on the side of John Curtin, or do you want to be on the side of ‘Pig Iron Bob’,” Conroy asked.

In a debate where everyone was trying to be polite to everyone else – apart from some heckling from the floor – the link between appeasement and anti-AUKUS sentiment triggered some blowback. Michael Wright, from the Electrical Trades Union (ETU) who led the opposition against AUKUS, condemned any suggestion that this was akin to appeasement.

Behind the scenes and on the floor of conference, the ability of AUKUS and its submarine program to create jobs was used as a powerful argument. Albanese said it was expected to generate 20,000 well-paid, secure, unionised jobs.

In the pro-AUKUS statement the conference agreed to, jobs featured heavily.

“Labor will ensure that the nuclear-powered submarine program will deliver secure, well-paid unionised jobs and establish a skills and training centre of excellence, with Australian workers trained in the latest technologies that add to Australia’s sovereign capability,” the statement says.

“Labor commits that Australia’s SSN-AUKUS submarines will be built by Australian workers in South Australia, with a peak of 4,000 workers employed to design and build the infrastructure at Osborne and a further 4,000 to 5,500 jobs created to build the submarines.”

One speaker on the opposing side noted that the conversation before the debate was “union-led – both for and against”.

The opponents put forward a range of objections. Wright raised the prospect of a future Coalition government using the nuclear-powered submarines as “the wedge to drive the opening of a nuclear industry in Australia”.

Co-convenor of the Labor Environment Action Network, Felicity Wade, said: “Our people hate nukes”.

Federal Labor backbencher, Josh Wilson, the member for Fremantle, raised the challenge of nuclear waste, and said the decision involved “too many risks”. He rejected the appeasement argument as “ridiculous”. Wilson earlier this year spoke out strongly against the submarines deal.

The statement the conference endorsed says that Labor will “ensure that all Australian warships, including submarines, are Australian sovereign assets, commanded by Australian officers and under the sovereign control of the Australian Government”. It also provides assurances on the disposal of nuclear waste associated with the sumbarines and declares Labor “will maintain the prohibition on the establishment of nuclear power plants”.

Labor conferences are not what they once were in terms of power, but the government’s intense pre-conference efforts to get support for AUKUS showed it recognised it was important to formally sign up the party to this historic agreement.

By maximising the consultation, it minimised the fracture within Labor over this issue.

This sends a significant message to Australia’s US ally, where there is some (minority) questioning of the submarine deal.

Albanese can be well satisfied with this Labor conference, which wraps up on Saturday. It’s been smooth sailing. His authority has been highlighted.

The next few weeks, however, will be much rougher for the PM.

He must soon name the date for the Voice referendum vote. With the polls looking poor, that issue is shaping up as an extremely difficult battle for Albanese and other “yes” campaigners.

If the numbers are turned around, Albanese will end the year on a high. If, however, the double majority needed for success is not reached, it will be a significant blow for him.

That might not translate into the popular vote, especially given most people have their attention on other issues, notably cost of living. But it could diminish Albanese’s authority among his senior colleagues, who might start to question his judgement.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Labor conference gives Albanese a firm ‘yes’ on AUKUS – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-labor-conference-gives-albanese-a-firm-yes-on-aukus-211827

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daswin de Silva, Deputy Director of the Centre for Data Analytics and Cognition, La Trobe University

Artificial intelligence-powered (AI) chatbots are becoming increasingly human-like by design, to the point that some among us may struggle to distinguish between human and machine.

This week, Snapchat’s My AI chatbot glitched and posted a story of what looked like a wall and ceiling, before it stopped responding to users. Naturally, the internet began to question whether the ChatGPT-powered chatbot had gained sentience.

A crash course in AI literacy could have quelled this confusion. But, beyond that, the incident reminds us that as AI chatbots grow closer to resembling humans, managing their uptake will only get more challenging – and more important.

From rules-based to adaptive chatbots

Since ChatGPT burst onto our screens late last year, many digital platforms have integrated AI into their services. Even as I draft this article on Microsoft Word, the software’s predictive AI capability is suggesting possible sentence completions.

Read more:
Google and Microsoft are bringing AI to Word, Excel, Gmail and more. It could boost productivity for us – and cybercriminals

Known as generative AI, this relatively new type of AI is distinguished from its predecessors by its ability to generate new content that is precise, human-like and seemingly meaningful.

Generative AI tools, including AI image generators and chatbots, are built on large language models (LLMs). These computational models analyse the associations between billions of words, sentences and paragraphs to predict what ought to come next in a given text. As OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever puts it, an LLM is

[…] just a really, really good next-word predictor.

Advanced LLMs are also fine-tuned with human feedback. This training, often delivered through countless hours of cheap human labour, is the reason AI chatbots can now have seemingly human-like conversations.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT is still the flagship generative AI model. Its release marked a major leap from simpler “rules-based” chatbots, such as those used in online customer service.

Human-like chatbots that talk to a user rather than at them have been linked with higher levels of engagement. One study found the personification of chatbots leads to increased engagement which, over time, may turn into psychological
dependence. Another study involving stressed participants found a human-like chatbot was more likely to be perceived as competent, and therefore more likely to help reduce participants’ stress.

These chatbots have also been effective in fulfilling organisational objectives in various settings, including retail, education, workplace and healthcare settings.

Read more:
The hidden cost of the AI boom: social and environmental exploitation

Google is using generative AI to build a “personal life coach” that will supposedly help people with various personal and professional tasks, including providing life advice and answering intimate questions.

This is despite Google’s own AI safety experts warning that users could grow too dependant on AI and may experience “diminished health and wellbeing” and a “loss of agency” if they take life advice from it.

Friend or foe – or just a bot?

In the recent Snapchat incident, the company put the whole thing down to a “temporary outage”. We may never know what actually happened; it could be yet another example of AI “hallucinatng”, or the result of a cyberattack, or even just an operational error.

Either way, the speed with which some users assumed the chatbot had achieved sentience suggests we are seeing an unprecedented anthropomorphism of AI. It’s compounded by a lack of transparency from developers, and a lack of basic understanding among the public.

We shouldn’t underestimate how individuals may be misled by the apparent authenticity of human-like chatbots.

Earlier this year, a Belgian man’s suicide was attributed to conversations he’d had with a chatbot about climate inaction and the planet’s future. In another example, a chatbot named Tessa was found to be offering harmful advice to people through an eating disorder helpline.

Chatbots may be particularly harmful to the more vulnerable among us, and especially to those with psychological conditions.

A new uncanny valley?

You may have heard of the “uncanny valley” effect. It refers to that uneasy feeling you get when you see a humanoid robot that almost looks human, but its slight imperfections give it away, and it ends up being creepy.

It seems a similar experience is emerging in our interactions with human-like chatbots. A slight blip can raise the hairs on the back of the neck.

One solution might be to lose the human edge and revert to chatbots that are straightforward, objective and factual. But this would come at the expense of engagement and innovation.

Education and transparency are key

Even the developers of advanced AI chatbots often can’t explain how they work. Yet in some ways (and as far as commercial entities are concerned) the benefits outweigh the risks.

Generative AI has demonstrated its usefulness in big-ticket items such as productivity, healthcare, education and even social equity. It’s unlikely to go away. So how do we make it work for us?

Since 2018, there has been a significant push for governments and organisations to address the risks of AI. But applying responsible standards and regulations to a technology that’s more “human-like” than any other comes with a host of challenges.

Currently, there is no legal requirement for Australian businesses to disclose the use of chatbots. In the US, California has introduced a “bot bill” that would require this, but legal experts have poked holes in it – and the bill has yet to be enforced at the time of writing this article.

Moreover, ChatGPT and similar chatbots are made public as “research previews”. This means they often come with multiple disclosures on their prototypical nature, and the onus for responsible use falls on the user.

The European Union’s AI Act, the world’s first comprehensive regulation on AI, has identified moderate regulation and education as the path forward – since excess regulation could stunt innovation. Similar to digital literacy, AI literacy should be mandated in schools, universities and organisations, and should also be made free and accessible for the public.

Read more:
Do we need a new law for AI? Sure – but first we could try enforcing the laws we already have

Daswin de Silva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Snapchat’s ‘creepy’ AI blunder reminds us that chatbots aren’t people. But as the lines blur, the risks grow – https://theconversation.com/snapchats-creepy-ai-blunder-reminds-us-that-chatbots-arent-people-but-as-the-lines-blur-the-risks-grow-211744

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee Wallace, Professor, Film Studies, University of Sydney

When we sat down with friends to watch the Matildas take on England, the two of us played it cool through the pre-match period, as if this was a game like any other.

There was the usual chatter while the mascots ushered our now familiar Matildas onto the field. But at half-time – three pizzas and a bottle of viognier in – we were a little subdued and trying to find distraction.

To mask our own anxiety, we found ourselves commenting on the tension observable in others: the stadium crowd oddly tamped down, the ashen face of Australia’s coach Tony Gustavsson.

We rose as one when Sam Kerr delivered her sensational goal in the 63rd minute, but not long after that the game was over. Our girls huddled down and then took the mandatory lap of honour, stunned and wide-eyed as if they, too, were unable to take in what had just gone down.

We are still coming to emotional terms with the 3-1 result. But the matches on the field weren’t the only World Cup story we were interested in. In our group chat and on social media, another game was taking place: queer DIY commentary on the outest World Cup ever played.

In this virtually expanded world, the Matildas can never lose.

Read more:
Connection, camaraderie and belonging: why the Matildas could be making you a sports fan for the very first time

Queer women talking

While women have long been associated with gossip, the World Cup has given this ancient form of political and psychological processing a queer twist.

Watching the games and talking about the Matildas is one thing, but the online alt-commentary on the game has been a joy – even for those with little prior relation to social media or, truth be told, sport.

The barrier to entry is low: you can start with the group chat. Ours began organically with six fellow researchers of queer popular culture and media with varied attachments to football.

Our running commentary kept pace with the on-field action and included selfies at games and venues – but it chiefly focused on queer subtextual and para-athletic details such as height of knee socks, brow styling, headbands and ribbons.

Anyone still struggling with the outcome of Wednesday’s match might find solace, as we did, in learning about the children’s book that accompanies the ribbon Hayley Raso was originally gifted by her grandmother to match her jerseys.

That’s the kind of thing lady-amateurs process while the professional commentators beam in on the corporate media channels. They talk about the on-field action, while we tap into the expansive alternative universe of queer social media commentary.

Read more:
‘Felt alienated by the men’s game’: how the culture of women’s sport has driven record Matildas viewership

Learning the code

Our chat has been wide-ranging and quizzical as some of us learn the new code.

It has shifted between pure sports commentary – fuelled by our Angel City FC expert, who has a side hustle as a queer sports podcaster – and non-FIFA-approved content sourced from TikTok and Instagram as others like us caught on to the magic of the tournament.

We knew we weren’t alone when comedian Bec Shaw asked why other sports communities weren’t more like ours: up-to-date with game strategy and player performance histories, but also invested in the soapy off- and on-screen melodrama.

The Penrith Panthers and a huge number of other mainstream clubs came online with their reactions. Under their club social media accounts, these teams demonstrated their unequivocal, unquestioned passion for elite sports performance outside of their own codes and genders.

In this respect, they were in line the rest of the world, fully under the spell of the Matildas’ version of queer authenticity.

As queer viewers, our emerging expertise was not limited to the play.

We began trawling through the now infamous “woso chart” (“woso”, of course, short for women’s soccer), modelled on the relationship chart from The L Word, which maps all the intimate relationships, breakups and rumours (aka replays and substitutions) between players.

But, like game plans, diagrams can’t capture the real life drama. For that you need to turn to Brooke’s TikTok serial where she lesbian-splains the intricacies of girl-on-girl attachments to a sweet young hipster who believes they are all just friends.

One of the beautiful things about this World Cup has been the diverse engagements of fans around elite team sport and all its dimensions.

As comedian Mel Buttle captured beautifully, these virtual and actual conversations about women’s sport between friends, colleagues and strangers were unimaginable only a few years ago.

It has been queerly thrilling to be at the centre of this global shift – and to understand that all the feelings we have had along the way have been shared at scale with people we mistakenly think are not like us.

Queer closing fixture

There are not many moments in everyday life where you see euphoria and despair in such painfully close proximity, as we did on Wednesday night.

As one of us said from the house in Tempe where we were babysitting a next-generation sports star while his two mums were making the overlong journey back from Homebush, “It feels like World Pride is over.”

But here’s the good news. It’s not. After the final whistle, the cameras find Kerr. She puts it straight into the top corner for queer Australia with her powerful proclamation, “Wouldn’t want to be on any other team”.

Nor would we. We can’t imagine this World Cup without our virtual team huddle.

It’s not too late to join us. The third-place playoff will be the “gayest” FIFA final ever.

Just pick up your devices and come find us in the virtual dugout, where pop cultural crossovers keep the Matildas effect forever in play.

Thanks to our chat-buddies Cherine Fahd, Annamarie Jagose, Sarah Kessler, Alice Motion, Maddy Motion and Karen Tongson, who all play for SSSHARC FC.

Lee Wallace receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the NSW Department of Communities and Justice.

Victoria Rawlings receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the NSW Department of Communities and Justice.

– ref. ‘Wouldn’t want to be on any other team’: the queer joy of watching the Matildas at the ‘outest’ World Cup ever – https://theconversation.com/wouldnt-want-to-be-on-any-other-team-the-queer-joy-of-watching-the-matildas-at-the-outest-world-cup-ever-211681

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Greg Austin, Adjunct Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney

The federal Labor government today used the ALP national conference to address internal dissent over the controversial AUKUS security pact and its plan for acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.

Taxpayers have been asked to fund these subs at an extreme cost, up to A$368 billion, and with many risks in the procurement cycle. This decision, and the price tag, can only be justified by the consideration that Australia would likely join the US in a war against China to protect Taiwan.

But the government hasn’t specifically acknowledged that. Its public rationale for going ahead with the subs is to counter China’s growing military influence in the Asia-Pacific, especially in the maritime domain.

“China’s military buildup is now the largest and most ambitious we have seen by any country since the end of the second world war,” according to Defence Minister Richard Marles.

But how great is China’s naval capability?

The truth is the US navy, alongside its allied navies, especially Japan, remains much more powerful compared with China’s navy – and that’s likely to continue.

The Australian government isn’t being fully open about the cost-benefit analysis. It hasn’t publicly laid out its case for why its pursuit of such extremely expensive subs in relatively small numbers would help redress negative implications of the Chinese military buildup for Australian security.

What’s more, the AUKUS arrangements add little to the security commitment the US and Australia already have. We already have the closest possible alliance with the US, and even the government has said to our Asian neighbours that AUKUS doesn’t upgrade the security guarantees of the US to Australia.

So how do we assess the naval balance of power between China and the US, and do the AUKUS submarines arriving in the 2030s figure in those assessments?

Comparing their navies: the old way

A traditional way of assessing the balance of naval power is to count and compare the number of warships operated by each country. Even on that metric, the US isn’t outgunned by China, based on recent data.

China is frequently described as the world’s largest navy. But the US has more of the most important types of major warships, which are suitable for maritime warfare. The count only shifts in China’s favour for lighter and less heavily armed ships, such as frigates and coastal patrol vessels.

China’s advantage in lighter classes of warships could be particularly important in a conflict contained largely within the Taiwan Strait and other coastal areas near China.

On the other hand, even though the US doesn’t normally deploy all its naval force to the Western Pacific, it could deliver overwhelming naval power in the region in most circumstances if war was imminent.

The ‘missile age’

In today’s world, the ability of a country to carry out missile strikes is a far more important consideration than simply the number of warships.

The US can readily compensate for China’s numerical advantage in light warship numbers with “stand-off” missiles, which can be launched from long distances (more than 1,500km).

Read more:
The much-anticipated defence review is here. So what does it say, and what does it mean for Australia?

In modern war, the count of “weapons platforms” (any structure from which weapons can be deployed, including ships) is far less important than the number of missiles that can be fired from a variety of platforms against enemy targets.

A US think tank has estimated that in the event of China starting a war with Taiwan, the US could fire more than 5,000 anti-ship missiles over the first 3-4 weeks.

The simulation was pessimistic about whether this number would be adequate to hold the Chinese attack at bay or defeat it in the first weeks, but it still saw China suffer significant ship losses. The simulation didn’t include US attacks on Chinese naval bases, which could significantly alter the missile advantage in favour of the US.

In a war between the US and China, we could expect the US would be prepared to undertake crippling cruise missile strikes on naval bases and other targets inside China. Even on short warning, the US navy could, for example, launch more than 1,000 cruise missiles against the Chinese mainland in an initial engagement over several days if it chose to do so.

According to the US Congressional Research Service, the US navy has 9,000 missile vertical launch tubes to deliver long-range cruise missiles, compared with China’s 1,000.

The Australian public need not be so spooked about China’s naval buildup, given the US’s supremacy in the “missile age”.

The US also has the cyber advantage

The US navy also has superior cyber capabilities compared with the Chinese navy.

Its cyber resources are concentrated in its “Tenth Fleet”, with more than 19,000 active and reserve personnel. It has 26 active commands, 40 cyber mission force units, and 29 reserve commands around the world, which could be available to strike China in the event of war. Such missions would likely aim to disable, disrupt or destroy the command and control and fighting effectiveness of the Chinese navy.

For example, it was US navy cyber personnel, alongside Ukrainian counterparts, who successfully blocked what could have been crippling cyber attacks by Russia ahead of its invasion in early 2022.

In contrast, China doesn’t appear to have a dedicated naval cyber command, corresponding forces, or such a substantial global footprint.

Read more:
Deterring China isn’t all about submarines. Australia’s ‘cyber offence’ might be its most potent weapon

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has assessed that China is at least ten years behind the US in its cyber power.

This judgement is based on the US’s industrial and technological supremacy, and its much longer history of integrating cyber operations into military planning.

In a war with China, the US could count on the active support of key allies, such as the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia, through remote cyber military attacks against China.

The AUKUS pact enhances the strength of this cyber alliance. Australia having nuclear-powered submarines doesn’t hugely change the US/China balance of power.

The allied cyber capabilities together far outweigh those of China. China has no strong cyber allies and has weak cyber defences compared with the US.

What about the long term?

The Congressional Research Service’s May 2023 report assesses that the naval balance remains in favour of the US, especially in submarine capability.

It finds China would have to maintain its robust naval buildup and modernisation for quite some time if that were to change (though it doesn’t estimate a timeline for this). If that transpires, the report concludes China “might eventually draw even with or surpass the United States in overall naval capability”, though in my view this outcome is far from certain.

I estimate the US advantage in naval power over China will likely remain in place for at least the next decade, and probably longer. The government owes the Australian public a granular accounting of the military balance for the longer term.

Greg Austin consults for the International Institute for Strategic Studies whose work is cited in this article.

– ref. The US navy is still more powerful than China’s: more so than the Australian government is letting on – https://theconversation.com/the-us-navy-is-still-more-powerful-than-chinas-more-so-than-the-australian-government-is-letting-on-208466

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saphira Rekker, Senior Lecturer in Sustainable Finance, The University of Queensland

Rapid reductions in fossil fuel production and use are essential to limit global warming to 1.5℃ compared to pre-industrial levels. Our new research shows most of the world’s major coal, oil and gas companies are yet to make meaningful reductions.

Some companies have been quick to announce net-zero targets or other claims of alignment with the Paris Agreement. But how do their actions compare to what must be done to achieve the agreed goal of keeping the temperature increase below 1.5℃?

Our research developed a method to track whether production by individual fossil fuel companies is aligned with putting the world on a 1.5℃ climate pathway. We use production budgets as these can be compared directly with fossil fuel demand scenarios and avoid the need for complex emissions calculations.

More than 60% of the top 142 oil, gas and coal companies – including three of the five Australian companies assessed – were not on track. Rio Tinto and BHP were the two Australian companies found to be on track. Between 2014 and 2020, the fossil fuel sectors exceeded overall production budgets by 64% (oil), 63% (gas) and 70% (coal).

These budgets are the levels of production needed to limit warming to 1.5℃ under the Paris Agreement “middle-of-the-road scenario” (where trends broadly follow their historical patterns).

We need freely available information to understand the impact companies are having on the climate and to hold them accountable. Our results are on the website Are you Paris compliant?.

Read more:
‘It can be done. It must be done’: IPCC delivers definitive report on climate change, and where to now

How can we track companies’ actions?

In an earlier research paper, we laid the foundation of what Paris compliance means using a strict science-based approach. We developed several conditions.

Firstly, the base year of measuring progress of an entity should be the same as the starting year of the decarbonisation scenario being used. While there are many such scenarios, the pathway has to be consistent with a 1.5℃ or “well below” 2℃ warming limit as stated in the Paris Agreement.

To prevent constant delay of action, only pathways starting in or before 2015 should be used. That’s when the world’s nations committed to decarbonisation under the Paris Agreement. For example, if a company wants to track its alignment with a well-below 2℃ pathway starting in 2014, it should start tracking from 2014.

Also, companies should make up for action deficits since the base year to stay within their budgets.

Commonly used frameworks such as the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) and the London School of Economics’ Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI) don’t comply with these conditions. The not-for-profit SBTi is the primary point of call for companies wanting to develop emission reduction targets. It’s a partnership between CDP (which runs the global system of environmental impact disclosures), UN Global Compact, World Wildlife Fund and World Resources Institute.

We have now applied our more rigorous approach to fossil fuel companies. Using publicly available production data from the Climate Accountability Institute allows us to assess a large number of companies.

We evaluated the 142 largest producers of coal, oil and gas against four possible emissions “pathways” to limit temperature increase to 1.5℃ this century. We used three pathways set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014 and the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions pathway from 2020. Each pathway involves different scenarios of climate actions, emissions and carbon capture and storage.

Read more:
Climate change: ditch 90% of world’s coal and 60% of oil and gas to limit warming to 1.5°C – experts

Off course, with much more to do

Not only did we find the majority of these companies are not currently aligned, but the outlook is also troubling. If recent trends (2010-2018) continue, the companies would produce up to 68% (coal), 42% (oil) and 53% (gas) more than their cumulative production budgets by 2050.

In Australia, the three companies not on track were Whitehaven Coal, Santos and Woodside. They exceeded their production budgets by 232% (Woodside coal), 28% (Santos oil) and 33% (Santos gas), and 39% (Woodside gas, on track for oil).

BHP was on track because it has reduced its coal, oil and gas production more than required between 2014 and 2020 under the middle-of-the-road 1.5℃ scenario. It used 87% (coal), 85% (oil) and 92% (gas) of its production budgets. Rio Tinto entirely stopped its production of coal in 2018.

Read more:
We pay billions to subsidise Australia’s fossil fuel industry. This makes absolutely no economic sense

While we project future production using historical (2010-2018) growth, a next step would be to assess how current production plans align with 1.5℃ pathways.

Companies can use our method to see how much they need to reduce production to be aligned. They can also see how much carbon capture and storage is required under a certain 1.5℃ pathway.

Read more:
The oil industry has succumbed to a dangerous new climate denialism

Tracking enables accountability

For companies to claim Paris alignment, they must be accountable for achieving the required levels of mitigation (reducing production and carbon capture and storage) under a particular 1.5℃ pathway.

Our method provides a foundation to drive this change. It offers a relatively simple way to measure corporate actions against the reductions required.

Our work aids the development of standards, regulation and guidance on what Paris alignment actually means. The Science Based Targets initiative has yet to finalise a method for the oil and gas sector. It has no method for coal.

Our method provides a process that can fill this void. In addition to tracking individual companies’ compliance with the Paris Agreement, we require clarity on their intentions beyond just setting targets. The International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) will play a vital role by requiring detailed climate transition plans from companies in countries that adopt its standards.

Tracking how companies are performing empowers all stakeholders – including governments, investors and individuals like you and me – to advocate for climate action and make climate-safe decisions. For example, investors can use this information to decide which companies to invest in and advocate for change where required. Governments can integrate this information into corporate guidelines for climate action.

Saphira Rekker is affiliated with the Science Based Targets initiative Technical Working Group (Oil & Gas), the Science Based Targets Scientific Advisory Group and the Australian Sustainable Finance Institute Taxonomy Technical Expert Group.

Belinda Wade has a paid position and is an owner/shareholder in the consulting firm Aurecon. She has received internal UQ strategic funding to support research on decarbonisation and has had other grants associated with research projects e.g. Future Fuels CRC and Rural Economies Centre of Excellence.

– ref. Nearly two-thirds of the top fossil fuel producers in Australia and the world aren’t on track for 1.5℃ climate target – https://theconversation.com/nearly-two-thirds-of-the-top-fossil-fuel-producers-in-australia-and-the-world-arent-on-track-for-1-5-climate-target-211609

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lea Redfern, Lecturer, Discipline of Media and Communications, University of Sydney

Michael Parkinson, who has died at 88, demonstrated the art of the good interview night after night. He practised deep listening, giving his interviewee his full attention, but he was always aware of the audience. While he was asking questions on behalf of the audience and advocating for the audience, he always had the person he was interviewing as his focus.

As host of Parkinson (1971–82 and 1998–2007) and Parkinson in Australia (1979–83), he was a big presence on Australian TV. He was television the whole family could watch together, never unsuitable for children.

We may not have understood everything, and some references went over our head, but as children we could watch Parkinson with our parents. I remember as a young person regularly watching him and hoping the interview would be funny that week.

There were times you knew it was going to be hilarious. When Billy Connolly or “our” Dame Edna were going to appear it was a must-watch.

Whoever the interviewee, Parkinson brought out their stories, their observations. He gave them space to share engaging stories and never stepped on a punchline. Although humour was a draw card for the audience, their was space for pathos, too.

Finding the shape

Parkinson was an interviewer of great skill. He could be a presence, but never pull focus from the interviewee. He was deeply empathetic, and always in control of the interview.

The form of the interview was always satisfying: he knew how to draw a narrative through the length of the program. When interviewing three people at once, he knew how to be fair and have a balance between everyone and their stories. He made this appear effortless.

From 1979 to 2014 he frequently worked in Australia across the ABC, Channel Ten and Channel Nine.

For a generation of ten pound passage immigrants, he represented the best of the old country: he was never patronising, never spoke down to people, and helped to bridge the gap between Australia and England. He was able to bring us the best of British and Australian interviewees alike, affirming Australia’s international standing in the arts and culture.

When speaking to Australian politicians, sports stars and actors he was always deeply interested and deeply curious. He could reflect us back to ourselves without any of the cultural cringe so evident in the media of the time. The affection Australians felt for him is shown in the diminutive “Parky”.

Read more:
Interviews with journalists can seem daunting – but new research shows 80% of subjects report a positive experience

An authentic voice

Born in Yorkshire in 1935, Parkinson didn’t attend university, starting his career working for newspapers straight out of school. It was perhaps this start which aided in his plain speaking common sense and ability to talk to ordinary people. You got the sense he could speak to anybody. There was no putting on a persona; he was always authentically him.

Today, this authentic self is seen in many of our best interviewers. We know how important it is curiosity and authenticity drive the interview – Parkinson was doing this decades before others recognised its importance.

When I started in radio, I looked towards Parkinson as the gold standard. I admired how he was able to draw people out and reveal so much of themselves. He demonstrated how the media could go beyond the soundbite.

So much of the media of the time was about context-free news and current affairs journalism. Although his interviews were with celebrities, he showed people might share more of themselves and the world if they’re given time and space to speak. Parkinson gave us a fuller, richer sense of the people he spoke to.

His legacy in Australia can be seen in people like Andrew Denton, Richard Fidler and Sarah Kanowski – long form interviews driven by curiosity.

Some people have been describing Parkinson’s death as the end of an era, but his legacy will live on. When we look at shows like ABC Conversations, and so many longform podcasts, we find curious interviewers who, like Parkinson, build a relationship and find a connection with an interviewee. A soundbite might show up on TikTok or YouTube – but you have to do the longform interview to get there.

Perhaps one of the best demonstrations of this was Parkinson’s interview with Ian Thorpe. In the 2014 interview, Thorpe came out publicly for the first time, and spoke about his depression and use of drugs and alcohol.

Without the relationship Parkinson was able to build over the course of the interview, it is doubtful Thorpe would have felt comfortable to come out in the same way. Parkinson was always interested in giving people the opportunity to reveal themselves.

That Thorpe felt Parkinson’s show was a safe space to come out says something about the tenor of his relationship with his interviewees and his place in Australian culture.

Read more:
Ian Thorpe came out, but not in Australia – a wise decision

There for the audience

His few missteps seemed to be with women. As I grew older, I realised he was a man of his time, as was made obvious in his awkward interviews with Meg Ryan and Helen Mirren. In these interviews, his occasional awkwardness around gender is writ large, and the interviews go off the rails. He fails to develop his famous rapport and adjust his approach in response to their discomfort.

But given the length of his career, the rarity of these missteps is still impressive. His geniality and quiet generosity came across night after night, for decades.

What defined him more than anything was how he was inclusive of his audience. No matter how complex the ideas or how smart the person he was interviewing, the audience was brought along with them. He was there on our behalf, and able to ask the clarifying questions without worrying about his own ego.

He represents an age of Australian and British relationships in a way that is truly singular and his interviews are artefacts of that age. He was an interiewer who stood out for not having to stand out, and the delights and possibilities of the long-form interview are his legacy.

Lea Redfern does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Interested, curious and empathetic, Michael Parkinson helped bridge the gap between Australia and England – https://theconversation.com/interested-curious-and-empathetic-michael-parkinson-helped-bridge-the-gap-between-australia-and-england-211824

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Dahlen, Professor of Midwifery, Associate Dean Research and HDR, Midwifery Discipline Leader, Western Sydney University

Why do babies always cry when they come out of their mum? – Nam, 12, Hanoi, Vietnam

When babies are born, they all seem to cry. We see this a lot on TV.

But not all newborn babies cry straight away. Here’s what’s going on.

What happens at birth?

When a baby is born, they move from their mum’s warm body, and out of their dark, watery world into a much cooler, drier and brighter one.

It’s a bit of a squeeze. As the baby comes out from their mum, the cooler air hits their wet skin.

The cooler air makes them gasp. They also gasp when the midwife or doctor touches their body to help them come into the world.

That gasp is their first breath, which usually comes with a cry. And when this happens the gasp or cry triggers an amazing change in how the baby gets oxygen and moves it around their body.

Read more:
Curious Kids: why do we cry?

What changes?

In the womb, babies depend on their mum for oxygen – via the placenta and umbilical cord.

The placenta looks a bit like a pancake and filters oxygen-rich blood from the mum. The umbilical cord then pumps that to the unborn baby.

But once babies are born, their first breath or cry triggers a whole range of changes to the way their heart moves blood around their body. So, rather than breathing fluid from the womb, they can now breathe air and get oxygen into their lungs just like we do.

The process of being born also squeezes water out of the baby’s lungs, allowing them to work properly.

A newborn baby crying is a sound parents and health workers are very happy to hear. That’s because it usually means the baby is well and won’t need any extra help to breathe.

But not all newborn babies cry. And it’s not always something to be worried about.

Read more:
Curious Kids: Is it true that male seahorses give birth?

Why don’t all babies cry?

Sometimes this switch to moving oxygen around the body just like us does not happen smoothly.

There might be problems with the baby’s heart, or there may have been a difficult birth. For instance, the baby might have been very short of oxygen in the womb and need some help to start breathing when they are born.

Sometimes, there’s a delay in babies crying.

Babies born by caesarean section – when doctors operate on the mum to lift the baby out of her womb – might be slower to breathe and cry. That’s because they don’t have the fluid squeezed from the lungs like they do when born through the vagina.

Sometimes newborn babies don’t cry at all.

Babies born in water (known as a waterbirth) may have lots of warm water around them and not even realise they are born. That’s because they don’t feel cold air as they come into the world; they are often in their mother’s arms in the water. So they tend to just breathe quietly, and turn pink (showing they are getting enough oxygen), without crying.

Hello, Curious Kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au

Hannah Dahlen receives funding from NHMRC and ARC. She is affiliated with The Australian College of Midwives

– ref. Curious Kids: why do babies cry when they come out of their mum? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-do-babies-cry-when-they-come-out-of-their-mum-205477

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jemma Geoghegan, Professor and Webster Family Chair in Viral Pathogenesis, University of Otago

A highly pathogenic bird flu is currently sweeping the world – and New Zealand could be better prepared for its potential arrival.

Over the past few years, more and more birds have come to harbour new strains of this deadly virus as it continues to evolve to infect new species. It is now causing a panzootic (a pandemic of animals) among wild aquatic birds.

The virus, known as highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, has likely already killed thousands of birds worldwide (the exact number is difficult to estimate). What’s more, spillovers to non-avian hosts such as mammals are becoming increasingly common.

While only a few human cases have been reported, cats, foxes and sea lions are being infected at an alarming rate.

Despite intercontinental transmission of highly pathogenic bird flu variants during the past 20 years, no cases have been reported in New Zealand – yet. Australia is also considered free of the virus, although a few years ago a strain in chickens was thought to have evolved locally.

One reason we emphasise “yet” is because each spring, thousands of migratory birds arrive in Aotearoa New Zealand. Will they bring these deadly strains of avian influenza with them? An unwanted viral hitchhiker of this type could have devastating consequences for our biota and industries.

Read more:
Bird flu: UK is seeing its largest ever outbreak – which may prove particularly deadly for wild birds

How bird flu could get to New Zealand

New Zealand is conventionally assumed to be at low risk from highly pathogenic avian influenza. We are thought to be too far away from other landmasses and not on routes that migratory waterfowl usually take.

Any migratory shore and seabirds that do usually make landfall in New Zealand are thought likely to die of the disease before reaching our shores.

But some wild birds might experience asymptomatic infections, even of strains that are typically highly pathogenic.

Read more:
Avian flu has jumped into wild seabirds and is spreading fast

Also, the recent expansion of susceptible host species, including to marine mammals, increases the risk that some species might carry the virus here.

As for geography, research suggests wild bird migrations are responsible for transmitting the virus from Europe to the Americas across the Atlantic, as well as throughout Eurasia. So why not to New Zealand? Are we really just too far away?

How to prepare for an outbreak

If this highly pathogenic avian influenza virus were to arrive, New Zealand is not as prepared as it could be. The major reason is that we have very little active virus surveillance of wildlife.

New Zealand monitors livestock, including cows, sheep and poultry, for a range of diseases. But the impact of this virus on people and non-poultry livestock is likely to be minimal.

The first signs might be the death of seabirds or marine mammals. While perhaps not as iconic as a kiwi or kākāpō, New Zealand is home to a great many seabirds found nowhere else on the planet.

Some species, such as tara iti (or fairy tern) are critically endangered, with only about 50 individuals left. A virus such as this could directly drive the extinction of species with such low numbers.

Given this risk, the US took action to vaccinate the Californian condor against avian influenza – but only after finding 21 dead condors (4% of the remaining population) which had tested positive for the H5N1 strain.

What should New Zealand watch for and how can we be better prepared to detect any incursions early?

• Raising awareness: unexpected deaths in animals are a red flag. Usually, such events are investigated by the Ministry for Primary Industries. But we must better inform the public about what to do if they spot a dead bird or sea lion.

• Testing: ramp up active and targeted surveillance of known pathogens. Wild birds have been surveyed annually since 2004 for avian influenza. However, since 2010 the focus has shifted away from migratory birds to sampling resident wildfowl in the summer months, concentrating on a small number of coastal locations visited by migratory shorebirds. This is based on the lack of positive samples from migratory bird prior to 2010, but the global situation and consequences of an incursion warrant revisiting active migratory bird surveillance across more locations.

• Genomics: use the viral genomics capabilities we have already established during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Europe, for instance, there are some circulating variants of avian influenza that seem to better infect mammals. If the virus arrives here, viral genomics can be used effectively to let us know what form we are dealing with, and inform our response.

Read more:
What is spillover? Bird flu outbreak underscores need for early detection to prevent the next big pandemic

It is clear that to first spot and then stop a virus such as this, we need to look at the entire ecosystem – that is, where humans, animals and the environment are interconnected. This is known as the “One Health” approach.

While this makes intuitive sense, the reality is that disease surveillance affecting humans, domestic animals and wildlife is largely siloed and under-resourced. There is limited integration of activities across these domains. The result is that we are currently ill-equipped to track and respond rapidly to this deadly virus were it to arrive in New Zealand.

We are advocating defragmentation of our surveillance for emerging pathogens. It is time to provide a more enhanced and integrated One Health surveillance system, involving expertise across universities, research institutes and government departments to re-evaluate our pandemic (and panzootic) preparedness.

Jemma Geoghegan receives funding from the Royal Society Te Apārangi, the Marsden Fund and the Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Nigel French receives funding from Te Niwha, the New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries and the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment. He is Emeritus Director of the New Zealand Food Safety Science and Research Centre.

– ref. Thousands of migratory birds will make NZ landfall in spring – will they bring a deadly bird flu with them? – https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-migratory-birds-will-make-nz-landfall-in-spring-will-they-bring-a-deadly-bird-flu-with-them-211492

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Passmore, Research Fellow, Evolution of Cultural Diversity Initiative, Australian National University

If you’ve ever seen Monty Python’s Life of Brian, you might remember that Romanes eunt domus means “Romans go home”. Or does it? Isn’t domus the nominative? Shouldn’t we be using the dative? Or is it the accusative?

Grammar is very complicated, especially if you are learning a new language. And if lots of people have to learn a new language, wouldn’t it be easier to make things simpler?

This is an intriguing idea linguists have previously proposed: languages lots of people learn as adults should tend to change over time to have simpler grammar, to accommodate the needs of learners who lack children’s sponge-like facility for picking up a new lingo.

However, in a new study in Science Advances, we analysed more than 1,200 languages to show this idea is not true, dashing the hopes of language learners worldwide.

How many words for ‘the dog’ do you need?

The theory of grammatical simplicity and non-native speakers has thrived because it seems intuitively reasonable.

Just as more non-native speakers should lead to simpler grammar, languages primarily spoken by native speakers should become more complex. This is because children can readily learn arbitrary grammatical rules and, as we collectively become more familiar with a language, we can encode more information in language more efficiently.

Read more:
Most assume writing systems get simpler. But 3,600 years of Chinese writing show it’s getting increasingly complex

For example, in the relatively isolated language of Iceland, there are three different word forms for “the dog”, depending on what the dog is doing in a given sentence: hundurinn, hundinn and hundinum (the nominative, accusative, and dative forms, respectively). But speakers of Swedish, Danish, and Norwegian, three countries historically in more regular contact with each other, simply use hunden in all scenarios.

It’s nice to think we can bend our language rules to accommodate newcomers and neighbours. But is this example just an anecdote, or does it indicate a universal feature of language change where languages evolve in different ways depending on who speaks them?

Putting the theory to the test

To test this theory we used a global database of grammatical features called Grambank.

From the database, we created two measures of grammatical complexity for each language: fusion, which depends on how much the language uses features such as prefixes and suffixes, and informativity, which shows how many pieces of grammatical information must be present for sentences to make sense.

Using these measures, we modelled the relationship between complexity, social and demographic factors (such as numbers of native and non-native speakers), and language status (such as whether the language is a national language or is used in education).

We also took into account the historical origins of languages. For example, French and Italian are similar because both descended from Latin. This process creates “trees” of languages, like the picture of the Uralic languages family above.

Grammar changes more slowly than populations

Our results show how language complexity evolved alongside the number of native – and non-native – speakers of each language. Contrary to the hypothesis, it seems that changes in grammatical complexity are too slow to be affected by the ebbs and flows of new adult speakers.

A good example of this is German, which is learned and spoken by a large number of non-native speakers who must navigate its case system, three genders, verbal agreement, and a multitude of other grammatical distinctions. For example, anyone learning German needs to remember whether every single noun is masculine, feminine, or neuter, like the feminine fork (die Gabel), the masculine spoon (der Löffel), and the neuter knife (das Messer).

Read more:
Research on 2,400 languages shows nearly half the world’s language diversity is at risk

Instead, we found the patterns of grammatical complexity we observe today are more likely to have arisen through a combination of historical language change and contact with other languages.

Our study shows how large-scale datasets and rigorous methods can shed new light on long-standing questions about what makes grammar more or less complex.

And although we found no evidence for the impact of non-native language speakers on grammatical complexity, there are still many more questions to explore about how social and demographic changes might influence the way we communicate with each other.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Do languages become less complex with more new adult speakers? Research shows it’s not that simple – https://theconversation.com/do-languages-become-less-complex-with-more-new-adult-speakers-research-shows-its-not-that-simple-211732

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Davis, Chair of Women’s Health, Monash University

Ever heard “low testosterone” blamed for low mood, brain fog and loss of vitality? Despite all evidence to the contrary, social media influencers are increasingly promoting testosterone therapy as an elixir for women experiencing troubling symptoms of menopause.

In a series of documentaries and social media posts about menopause in 2021 and 2022, British TV presenter Davina McCall promoted the use of testosterone therapy in addition to standard menopausal hormone therapy. The “Davina effect” has helped fuel a ten-fold increase in prescribing of testosterone for women in the United Kingdom since 2015.

Data isn’t available for Australia, but in my clinical practice, women are increasingly asking to have their testosterone level checked, and seeking testosterone to treat fatigue and brain fog.

But while testosterone continues to be an important hormone before and after menopause, this doesn’t mean women should be having a blood test to get their testosterone levels checked – or taking testosterone therapy.

What does testosterone do?

Testosterone is an important hormone in women’s bodies, affecting the blood vessels, skin, muscle and bone, breast tissue and the brain. In both women and men, testosterone can act on its own or be converted into estrogen.

Before menopause, testosterone is made in the ovaries, where it helps developing eggs grow and aids in estrogen production.

The ovaries release both testosterone and estrogen into the bloodstream, and the levels of the two hormones in the blood peak around ovulation.

Some of the testosterone measured in blood is also produced outside the ovaries, such as in fat, where it is made from “pre-hormones” secreted by the adrenal glands. This source of production of testosterone takes over after menopause.

Read more:
What makes you a man or a woman? Geneticist Jenny Graves explains

Do we have more testosterone before menopause?

The claim is often made that pre-menopausal women have more testosterone in their bloodstream than estrogen, to justify the need for testosterone replacement after menopause.

But, when sex hormones have been measured with precision, studies have shown this is not true. Our research found estrogen levels are higher than testosterone levels at all stages of the menstrual cycle.

Blood testosterone levels fall by about 25% between the ages of 18 and 40 years in healthy women. The fall in testosterone coincides with the decline in eggs in the ovaries but whether this is a marker of the decline, a consequence, or a cause of the decline is not known.

From around 40, the rate of decline slows and blood testosterone levels don’t change when menopause occurs naturally. Studies have not shown testosterone levels change meaningfully during the menopause transition.

Can blood tests detect ‘low testosterone’?

Some influencers claim to have a condition called “testosterone deficiency syndrome” or low levels of testosterone detected in blood tests.

But there is no “normal” blood level below which a woman can be diagnosed as having “testosterone deficiency”. So there’s no such thing as having a testosterone deficiency or testosterone deficiency syndrome.

This is also in part, because women have very low testosterone concentrations compared with men, and most commercial methods used to measure testosterone cannot separate normal from low levels in women with any certainty.

Pre-menopausal women might also be told they have “low” testosterone if blood is drawn early in the menstrual cycle when it is normal for testosterone to be low. (However, it would only be clinically necessary to do this type of blood test to look for high testosterone, in someone with with excessive hair growth or severe acne, for example, not for low testosterone.)

In post-menopausal women, much of the action of testosterone occurs in the tissues where it is made, after which testosterone is either converted to estrogen or broken down before it leaks back into the circulation. So blood testosterone concentrations are not a true reflection of tissue concentrations.

Further complicating the picture is the enormous variability in the effects of testosterone. At a given blood level of testosterone, some women might have oily skin, acne, increased body hair growth or balding, while others will have no such effects.

So, looking for a “low” blood testosterone in women is not helpful.

Read more:
‘How do I control my oily skin and prevent pimples?’ A dermatologist explains

Can testosterone improve sexual desire? What about other conditions?

There is sound evidence that testosterone therapy may improve sexual desire in post-menopausal women who have developed low sexual desire that bothers them.

This was confirmed by a systematic review of clinical trials comparing testosterone with a placebo or an alternative. These trials, all of which involved a treatment time of at least 12 weeks, showed testosterone therapy, overall, improved desire, arousal, orgasm and sexual satisfaction in post-menopausal women with low desire that caused them distress.

Treatment is only indicated for women who want an improvement in sexual desire (after excluding other factors such as depression or medication side effects) and its success can only be determined by each woman’s personal self-reported response.

But there is not enough evidence to show testosterone is beneficial for any other symptom or medical condition. The overall available data has shown no effect of testosterone on mood or cognition.

As such, testosterone therapy should not be used to treat symptoms such as fatigue, low mood, muscle weakness and poor memory, or to prevent bone loss, dementia or breast cancer.

However research continues to investigate these potential uses, including from my research team, which is investigating whether testosterone therapy can protect against bone density loss and muscle loss after menopause.

You can learn more about participating in one of our studies here.

Read more:
Hot flushes, night sweats, brain fog? Here’s what we know about phytoestrogens for menopausal symptoms

Susan Davis is supported by the NHMRC, Grant no 2016627, and receives project funding from the NHMRC, MRFF and the Heart Foundation. She has consulted with Lawley Pharmaceuticals (most recently, in 2020) and the company has provided testosterone and matching placebo for her competitively funded clinical trials.

– ref. Don’t believe the hype. Menopausal women don’t all need to check – or increase – their testosterone levels – https://theconversation.com/dont-believe-the-hype-menopausal-women-dont-all-need-to-check-or-increase-their-testosterone-levels-209516

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University

Black Summer, Black Saturday, Ash Wednesday: these and so many other bushfire disasters are regular reminders of the fact Australia is among the most flammable continents on Earth.

Alarmingly, climate change is making bushfires more frequent. This is a huge concern, given the devastating effects of fire on both human communities, and the diversity of plants and animals.

As our new research shows, however, the trend is not uniform. We examined the frequency of wildfires in parts of Victoria over the past 40 years. We found fire frequency is increasing in all ecosystems we studied, but to varying extents. In some places, fires are occurring so often, entire ecosystems are at risk of collapse.

These nuances are important. They point to the urgent need to tackle climate change. They also have major implications for biodiversity conservation, and bushfire management and prevention, and cast further questions over the controversial practice of native forest logging.

Fires are becoming shockingly more frequent

To understand the effects of wildfires, it’s not enough to focus on a single fire. We must examine successive fires in an area and how frequently they occur.

Our analysis focused on southeastern Australia – one of the most populated, heavily forested, and fire-prone parts of the continent.

Specifically, we homed in on six geographic areas in Victoria known as “bioregions”. Bioregions vary in their climatic conditions, geological features, biodiversity and other characteristics. The six areas together cover 4.64 million hectares – much of it forest.

We excluded deliberate burns such as hazard reduction (or prescribed) burns lit by fire authorities. We also excluded places that had been logged, because they’re known to be at a high risk of severe fire – and so including them would have skewed the results.

We found a major change in the frequency of wildfire over the past four decades. Between 2001 and 2020, there were substantially more fires in almost all bioregions than between 1981 and 2000.

In the earlier two decades, almost 667,000 hectares of forest burned. More than 36,000 hectares of this burned more than once.

In the latter two decades, 3.1 million hectares burned. About 1 million hectares burned more than once.

The change was most pronounced in the three bioregions at higher elevations – the Snowy Mountains, Victorian Alps, and South East Coastal Ranges (which lie southeast of the Snowy Mountains).

The least amount of change was found in Victoria’s East Gippsland Lowlands. This area had more fires in 1981-2000 than the other areas we studied, but only a modest increase in number of fires between 2000 and 2020.

Fascinatingly, however, the story doesn’t end there.

Read more:
‘Australia is sleepwalking’: a bushfire scientist explains what the Hawaii tragedy means for our flammable continent

A complex picture

We found the changes in fire frequency were nuanced and complex. Across the study areas, the frequency of wildfires was very strongly affected by topographical features such as slope, as well as climate measures such as rainfall and temperature. However, the influence of these factors differed markedly between areas.

For example, in four bioregions we studied, wildfires became more frequent as rainfall declined. But the opposite was true in the other two bioregions.

The reasons for these complex findings remain unclear. Increased average rainfall may, in some cases, arrive in storm events with associated lightning (which can start fires). It can also lead to faster water runoff, meaning rainfall may not be as well retained in the soil as otherwise might be, and forests could become drier.

Similarly, fire frequency was also affected by the extent to which temperatures deviated from the long-term average. Generally, this deviation was toward hotter temperatures.

In some areas, this temperature variation was associated with less frequent fires. In others, it coincided with more frequent fires. Again, the reasons for these differences are not yet clear.

The increase in fire frequency is alarming. Some places where fire has been particularly frequent include wetter forests, such as those dominated by ash-type eucalypts. Consistent with earlier analyses, we found evidence of locations that have experienced up to four fires in the past 25 years.

Fires in ash-type ecosystems have historically occurred only once every 75 to 150 years. Fires occurring too often in these environments may lead to the entire ecosystem collapsing.

Our results have major implications for the native forest logging forestry industry. More frequent fires means many trees burn well before they’ve reached an age suitable for sawlogs. This suggests yields from native forest logging in south-eastern Australia will decline, making the practice even more financially precarious.

Read more:
Giant old trees are still being logged in Tasmanian forests. We must find ways of better protecting them

What must happen next?

Our results confirm wildfires are becoming more frequent in parts of fire-prone south-eastern Australia. And while climate change influences the frequency of fire, the effects vary across geographical areas.

Clearly, we must seek to limit the number of wildfires. An obvious response is to take more strident steps to tackle climate change. But even if humanity meets this huge global challenge, it will be a long time before we see demonstrable changes in climate conditions.

More immediate options include managing vegetation to reduce flammability. For example, activities such as logging and thinning can make forests more flammable, so such practices should be halted in these vulnerable ecosystems.

Greater efforts are needed to conserve biodiversity that is sensitive to fire, and to conserve ecosystems at risk of collapse. We must also embrace new technologies to detect wildfires as soon as they ignite, and suppress them as quickly as possible.

David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Government, and the Victorian Government. He is a Councillor with the Biodiversity Council and is a member of Birds Australia.

Philip Zylstra is a member of the Leeuwin Group and receives funding from the Koorabup Trust.

Chris Taylor and Maldwyn John Evans do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Yes, climate change is bringing bushfires more often. But some ecosystems in Australia are suffering the most – https://theconversation.com/yes-climate-change-is-bringing-bushfires-more-often-but-some-ecosystems-in-australia-are-suffering-the-most-211683

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paula Jarzabkowski, Professor in Strategic Management, The University of Queensland

The Actuaries Institute of Austalia has just confirmed what many Australian households already know – home insurance is increasingly unaffordable.

It found average premiums climbed 28% in the year to March, while premiums for higher-risk properties, such as those in flood-prone areas, climbed 50%.

The institute also found 12% of Australian households – 1.24 million – are experiencing extreme home insurance affordability stress, defined as paying more than four weeks of gross household income on premiums.

Twelve months ago, this figure was 10%, or 1 million households.

While in the past affordability had been recognised as a problem affecting vulnerable Australians, it has got to the point where it is hitting households across the socio-economic spectrum. And not only in Australia.

Insurers are increasing premiums in locations at high risk of climate-related damage throughout the world and even withdrawing home insurance completely in places such as California and Florida.

The high premiums are spreading to households in lower-risk locations through a complex interconnected system of rising private reinsurance charges (insurance for insurers), more frequent and worse weather events, and increasing rebuilding costs.

The case for a government-owned reinsurance pool

The Actuaries Institute put forward risk pooling as an emergency solution.

It would work through a government-owned and run “reinsurance pool”, providing nationwide coverage for claims relating to extreme weather events. Private insurers would pass on their risk to the state-owned pool, which would use the pooled premiums to ensure every insurer was covered.

In the past, the insurance industry has been overwhelmingly opposed to the idea, viewing it as interfering in a traditionally private market.

As recently as March 2022, as Queensland and NSW reeled in the aftermath of catastrophic flooding and its implications for insurance, the Insurance Council of Australia responded to calls to extend the newly created cyclone reinsurance pool by saying the private sector did things better.

The industry’s concerns are not totally unfounded. Setting up a risk pool without taking steps to mitigate the underlying risk would simply mask, or even exacerbate, the problem. It could facilitate insurance and rebuilding in high-risk areas that will suffer repeated losses.

Risk pools have to include mechanisms that tie insurability to long-term risk reduction through mitigation, updated planning and building regulations, and disaster-resilient rebuilding programs, informed by nationwide data collection.

Read more:
Victims of NSW and Queensland floods have lodged 60,000 claims, but too many are underinsured. Here’s a better way

Governments are stepping in elsewhere

Extreme weather risk pools work in advanced economies around the world.

Some, such as the United States’ National Flood Insurance Program, mask risk while allowing rebuilding in disaster-prone areas. But others, such as those in Spain, France and Switzerland, integrate risk pooling with risk reduction.

Australia would need to draw on the experience of the countries that do it well, doing everything we can to reduce underlying risk, including by changing where and how we build, and relocating people from disaster-prone areas.

Read more:
After the floods comes underinsurance: we need a better plan

If we don’t do something along the lines of government-provided and mandated reinsurance, insurance and its enormous benefits will no longer be available to an increasing share of Australians, regardless of their financial means.

The inclusion of the idea in the Actuaries Institute report might be an indication that opposition is softening. The future of home insurance could depend on it.

In the past Paula Jarzabkowski has received funding to study insurance protections gaps from Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ARPC), the Bank of England, Flood Re, Guy Carpenter, Hiscox, the International Forum of Terrorism Risk (Re)Insurance Pools (IFTRIP), the Leverhulme Trust, Pool Re, Präventionsstiftung der Kantonalen
Gebäudeversicherungen and Willis Towers Watson. She is a member of the OECD High-Level Advisory Board for the Financial Management of Catastrophe Risk and on the Pool Re Advisory Council.

Corinne Unger and Katie Meissner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Home insurance bills are soaring as climate risks grow. The government should step in – https://theconversation.com/home-insurance-bills-are-soaring-as-climate-risks-grow-the-government-should-step-in-211515

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Labor is less than halfway into its first term, but Anthony Albanese is focused, laser-like, on its second one. Securing it, that is.

His message to delegates at the party’s national conference on Thursday was, in essence: be patient, don’t rock the boat, you shouldn’t expect the government to do all you want all at once.

And, above all, realise that if this is just a short-term government, what it achieves can be quickly negated by the other side.

“Each of us understands that winning and holding government is not only true to our principles, it is essential to fulfilling them”, Albanese said in his keynote address. “Equally we know what we have begun can be undone, unless we are there to protect it.”

Underlining his point, Albanese spelled out the differences between a short-term and a long-term Labor government.

The difference between a moment of progress – or a lifetime of opportunity.

The difference between laying the foundation – and finishing the build.

The difference between taking the gender pay gap to an historic low. And making the gender pay gap history.

The difference between writing an emissions reduction target into law. And seeing it achieved in new jobs and clean energy and a healthier environment.

It all amounted to whether Labor shaped the future – “or the future shapes us”. To be there for the long term depended on “bringing people with us” and “earning and repaying people’s trust.”

Albanese acknowledged that “this approach mightn’t suit those who prefer protest to progress, who imagine grand gestures and bold declarations are better than the patient work of ensuring lasting change.”

The prime minister’s pragmatic sentiments were a million miles from those the youthful Albanese would have expressed. Then again, this Labor conference is a far cry from those of decades ago when then prime minister Bob Hawke and treasurer Paul Keating had to fight for their policies against critics on what was a tough and vocal left. They won but the fights could be hard.

So far, this conference has been docile, compliant, and highly managed with approved speaking lists. Even though the left has the numbers (for the first time in decades) the government is firmly in the driving seat.

Remarkably – or perhaps not – when the party’s economic platform was discussed on Thursday morning, issues such as the need for comprehensive tax reform were not front of mind.

Stage 3 tax cuts actually didn’t even get a mention, despite being hotly contested in the public discussion.

The CFMEU had earlier floated a push for a super profits tax to provide money for housing, but the air was taken out of that balloon in negotiations.

The wording of the final motion said blandly: “Labor will increase government investment in social and affordable housing with funding from a progressive and sustainable tax system, including corporate tax reform”.

Read more:
View from The Hill: Albanese unveils boosted housing target and incentive payments ahead of Labor national conference

CFMEU National Secretary Zach Smith said “a permanent solution on social and affordable housing requires us to be more bold” while admitting the amendment was “not everything that the union is demanding”.

On the eve of the conference the government had unveiled initiatives to try to speed up the construction of housing, including increasing the target build from one million new homes to 1.2 million over five years from mid next year. It also announced ongoing work to strengthen renters’ rights.

The Grattan Institute has strongly praised Labor’s plan, saying every extra home will increase supply and so ease rental pressure. Its calculations suggest the extra 200,000 homes could reduce rents by about 4%. But it also notes that while it’s a good plan, “the devil will be in the detail”, to ensure the incentives work properly and there is adequate skilled labour for construction.

It’s not clear whether the housing crisis will do serious damage to Labor as it looks to the next election. The Greens, seeking to seize the mantle of the party of renters, have been predictably critical of the government’s measures. And there is still no resolution of the standoff over the government’s proposed housing fund.

The government is right to resist the demands by the Greens for a rent freeze or caps, but there is little doubt it is vulnerable in the battle for votes among many of the now large renter constituency, especially younger voters.

Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Labor president Wayne Swan on the party’s coming national conference

The Labor conference’s economic debate saw delegates from unions given an extensive speaking role.

Basically, they were happy with the Albanese government, not looking to cause any trouble or stir the pot. The economic debate neither reflected discontent nor was a forum for forward thinking.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who kicked off that part of the conference, would be happy with the smooth run the party gave him. However, he often proclaims he is anxious to have “conversations” about important issues for the future.

Next Thursday at the National Press Club, Chalmers will launch the government’s Intergenerational Report, which examines what will happen to Australia over the next four decades.

This one will be the first to attempt to properly incorporate the effects of climate change, and the first of a more regular series of such reports. Chalmers has promised they will be prepared every three years (in the middle of each electoral cycle) rather than every five years as they have been since 2002.

It remains to be seen how willing he will be to grapple with the really tough questions the report is likely to point to.

More immediately, back at the Labor conference, the arm-twisting continued to finalise wording on the AUKUS section of the platform, to be considered on Friday, that is acceptable to the government.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: Albanese is determined to keep Labor’s eyes firmly focused on a second term – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-albanese-is-determined-to-keep-labors-eyes-firmly-focused-on-a-second-term-211740

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Coates, Program Director, Economic Policy, Grattan Institute

Wednesday’s National Cabinet meeting set itself a huge task: to fix Australia’s rental crisis. Thankfully, given rents are rising at their fastest rate in decades, the plan it produced just might do the trick.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says it’s the most significant housing reform in a generation. If the states and territories deliver on their commitments, this might become one of the rare occasions when such lofty rhetoric is justified.

The plan has two key objectives:

• to remove constraints to building more homes in established suburbs

• to give renters more rights

As Grattan Institute has long argued, each is crucial.

Rents 4% cheaper as a result of the plan

The National Planning Reform Blueprint adds 200,000 homes to the previous target of 1 million extra homes over five years.

More importantly, that target is backed by $3.5 billion in incentives for states and territories to actually deliver the extra homes.

Most of that comes from the New Home Bonus, which will give states and territories $15,000 for every one of the extra 200,000 homes they deliver.

Grattan Institute calculations suggest those extra 200,000 homes, once all built, could reduce rents from what they otherwise would have been by 4%.

That’s a saving of $8 billion for renters over the first five years.

If those higher rates of construction are sustained for a full decade, rents could fall by 8%, saving renters $32 billion over those ten years.

Rewards for states that fast-track developments

A separate Housing Support Program will provide $500 million in competitive funding for state and local governments who get their act together on connecting services to new housing developments and fast-tracking planning reforms.

These incentives are needed because planning reform is hard

The Grattan Institute has long called for such meaningful incentives.

It is our state and local governments that restrict medium- and high-density developments, largely to appease existing residents in established suburbs.

The specific barriers vary from state to state, but the effect is the same: fewer houses where people most want to live.

Freeing up barriers is politically hard for state governments because many (vocal) residents don’t want more housing where they want to live.

Combined, the $3.5 billion in incentive payments will make it worth the states’ while to make tough choices by rewarding them for each extra home that’s eventually built.

Better housing, as well as more housing

Importantly, National Cabinet has also committed to rectifying problems in housing design and building certification to lift the quality of new builds, particularly apartments.

Public support for more density in existing suburbs will rise if residents know that what will get built will be good-quality housing that results in more vibrant and liveable communities.

Better security for renters

The second part of the plan – better, and nationally consistent, rights for renters – is an important step towards delivering genuine security of tenure.

The archetypal renter is no longer a student with a few milk crates and a futon.

It is increasingly a young family that has to endure huge housing costs and the intermittent disruption of being evicted against its will.

Nearly a quarter of couples who started their family more than five years ago are still renting privately. As do more than half of Australia’s single parents.

But while renters have changed, Australia’s rental rules have not. Renting remains insecure: most tenancy agreements are for a single year, and in many states landlords retain extensive rights to end leases, including via no-grounds evictions.

The plans aim to ensure renters can be evicted only if there are genuinely reasonable grounds for eviction.

Better behaviour by landlords

The prime minister and premiers also want to combat what they call retaliatory rent increases and eviction notices, whereby landlords hit back at tenants who take reasonable action to enforce legal rights or complain about their tenancy.

These are important steps, but more will be required. For example, more needs to be done to encourage institutional investors to buy up more of the rental stock. They are better placed than “mum-and-dad” investors to offer security.

More needed, but a good start

There is much more that will have to be done to make housing more affordable.

The tax and means test rules that distort demand for housing will have to be reformed, Commonwealth Rent Assistance will have to be increased further, and the Senate will have to pass the Housing Australia Future Fund to guarantee a steady stream of funding for new social housing.

But this is an excellent start. What will be important will be that the states follow through and don’t try to use loopholes to get rewards for homes that would have been built anyway.

For its part, the Commonwealth will have to do all it can to ensure Australia gets the skilled workers that will be needed to build these extra houses, including by streamlining pathways to skilled migration.

Ultimately, the only thing that will really help is more about supply. Because when housing is plentiful, it’s more affordable.

Read more:
The rent crisis is set to spread: here’s the case for doubling rent assistance

Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute’s activities.

Joey Moloney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. National Cabinet’s new housing plan could fix our rental crisis and save renters billions – https://theconversation.com/national-cabinets-new-housing-plan-could-fix-our-rental-crisis-and-save-renters-billions-211696

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Damien O’Meara, PhD Candidate, Media and Communications, Swinburne University of Technology

The hit romantic comedy Red, White & Royal Blue, an adaptation of Casey McQuiston’s book of the same name, quickly became the number one movie on Prime.

The film follows Alex Claremont-Diaz (the son of the US President) and Prince Henry (the “spare” to the British royal throne) and their enemies-to-lovers secret romance, and its mainstream appeal broadens understandings of what gay intimacy can look like.

Red, White & Royal Blue is an exciting catalyst for new discussions between mainstream and queer audiences about gay representations in the media, portrayals of gay and queer sex in Hollywood cinema and the role media plays in how broader communities understand queer lives.

It takes on aspects of the gay rom-com genre that emerged through queer film festivals. And like other recent gay rom-coms that pitched to the mainstream, it takes on a role to explain gay contexts to non-queer audiences.

Gay cultural anxieties in the heterosexual setting

Red, White & Royal Blue takes steps to reflect aspects the gay context to both queer and mainstream audiences.

Upon coming out to his mother (President Ellen Claremont), Alex is met with a parent well-versed in current queer community matters. She reflects a growing broader community understanding of LGBTIQ+ community interests and anxieties.

As Alex makes clear he is bisexual, she responds “you know the B in LGBTQ is not a silent letter.” This reflection and acknowledgement of bi erasure (the questioning or denying the existence of bisexuality) may seem basic to those within the community. But it is a reminder to the audience that one half of this gay rom-com is bisexual.

The President also raises the prospect of going on Truvada, a medication that can help prevent HIV infection, even though the drug continues to have low awareness, even among primary care providers.

These – somewhat clunky, although I suspect that’s for comic effect – parental interjections provide aspects of the film’s establishment of gay contexts in a much more mainstream world.

However, it is the intimate portrayal of Alex and Henry’s first time having sex that is reflexive of queer community frustrations about gay sex in cinema. Director Matthew López addresses this matter directly in an interview with Digital Spy’s David Opie, saying

I really wanted to show something that I hadn’t seen much of in mainstream movie making, which is sex between two men that is loving and connected, and that is emotionally resonant.

Read more:
Red, White & Royal Blue review – this queer romcom puts a new spin on the US and UK’s ‘special relationship’

The influence of queer film festivals

In my recent essay in Senses of Cinema, I argue that the gay rom-com emerged through the influence of queer film festivals.

Queer film festivals seek to give queer audiences stories where they can see themselves and their community. The growing global network of queer film festivals has also made them curators of what films are culturally valuable.

Think gay rom-coms like Bear City (2010), which premiered and circulated through queer film festivals, and reflects the physical spaces and cultural anxieties of New York’s bear subculture. The film shows a range of gay sex scenes with different levels of intimacy (although none quite as intimate as Red, White & Royal Blue).

In another genre, the gay romantic drama, Shelter (2007), which premiered at the 31st Frameline (LGBTQ+) film festival, is also an example that shows more variety and intimacy in representations of gay sex.

But Red, White & Royal Blue takes a mainstream setting, and pitches it to a mainstream audience. And yet, that’s not to say that there aren’t gay cultural contexts in the film.

Gay sex in Hollywood cinema

Film historian Vito Russo’s book Celluloid Closet: Homosexuality in the Movies charts gay and lesbian representations in cinema through the suppressive Hays Code era, which censored American films, and its impact through to the 1980s.

Russo argues that after years of suppression of gay and lesbian representations in Hollywood, the 1960s and 1970s saw a push by the mainstream to show limited views of gays onscreen. Russo describes “the readily visible poles of the gay community.” That is, “the sissy at one end” – the mysoginistic framing of gay men as feminine the therefore weak – and “the leather-jacketed macho violence of the waterfront sex bar at the other”, portraying gay men as deviant and predatory.

One of the most graphic early depictions of gay sex in Hollywood cinema is in Fortune and Men’s Eyes (1971), with an infamous and confronting prison rape. In relation to gay sex scenes, such as in this film, Russo describes situational homosexuality as “either active (masculine and powerful) or passive (feminine and powerless).”

There are many portrayals of gay sex in cinema, but this dynamic of gay sex as being about dominance of one man over another has persisted in many Hollywood representations. It is important to say this positioning is not an invalid portrayal of gay sex. But as with any stereotype, it is rooted in a history of showing gay men in a particular way.

My Policeman (2022), The Normal Heart (2014), Brokeback Mountain (2005) and Wet Hot American Summer (2001) are just a few recent examples of this representation of gay sex as an act of domaination**.

It is a portrayal so prominent that some outsiders to queer communities were surprised to see face-to-face gay sex in this latest gay rom-com. One Twitter poster asking “gay guys can do missionary?”. This has led to gay men on the social media platform noting the importance of gay representation in the media, and reviews, critique and media praising the “accuracy” of the scene.

The development of gay sex in Hollywood cinema is something to keep watching as these stories continue to find mainstream appeal.

Damien O’Meara is the recipient of the Research Training Program Stipend Scholarship through Swinburne University of Technology.

– ref. ‘Gay guys can do missionary?’ – how Red, White & Royal Blue brings queer intimacy to mainstream audiences – https://theconversation.com/gay-guys-can-do-missionary-how-red-white-and-royal-blue-brings-queer-intimacy-to-mainstream-audiences-211663

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Mouat, Researcher in Economic Geography, Massey University

Like most countries over the past three years, New Zealand has tried to manage inflation by increasing interest rates. Japan, on the other hand, has taken a different tack – with clear success.

In 2016, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) set the country’s interest rate at -0.1% and left it there. During the same period, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has adjusted the interest rate 18 times, with 12 upward adjustments since the end of 2021.

Japan’s annual inflation rate peaked at 4.4% in January 2023, while New Zealand’s peaked at 7.3% in June 2022, before dropping to 6.0% in June this year.

What might explain these differences in interest rate policy and inflation outcomes? The answer begins with how Japan views inflation in the first place.

Inflation as a supply issue

Since the early 1980s, most central banks have believed inflation could be combated by increasing the base interest rate. This would cause domestic demand for goods and services to decrease, suppress wages and increase unemployment – eventually triggering a fall in general price levels.

New Zealand enshrined this approach in the Reserve Bank Act 1989, which introduced the RBNZ monetary framework. Since 1999, the main policy tool for adjusting inflation has been the official cash rate (OCR), more or less mirroring the global central bank consensus.

Put bluntly, raising the OCR suppresses demand until unemployment is high enough for prices to fall.

Read more:
UK interest rates: crashing the economy is no way to bring down inflation

In contrast to New Zealand and elsewhere, the BoJ board sees the recent inflation episode as primarily caused by “transient” supply issues. So, raising interest rates to suppress demand has no effect on supply chains disrupted by things such as a global pandemic, the war in Ukraine or cuts to oil production.

While not necessarily short lived, these disruptions are seen by Japan’s central bank as transient because they are unlikely to cause permanent structural changes. With it’s focus on supply issues, Japan has ultimately fared better.

Why interest rates could be inflationary

There are three reasons why Japan’s refusal to tinker with interest rates may have been more successful at fighting inflation than New Zealand’s orthodox policy of raising rates.

1. Interest income

Securities such as government bonds attract interest. So, raising interest rates has meant new interest income began flowing from the public to private sector – in particular to those who have the money to invest in government bonds.

Treasury has calculated that interest income will more than double in 2023 – meaning an extra NZ$3.4 billion will flow to private sector investors. At least some of those billions will be spent on goods and services, adding to New Zealand’s existing inflationary pressures.

Japan’s policy of holding the interest rate below 0% means issuing government securities does not provide significant new interest income, which would ultimately put upward pressure on prices.

2. Employment

Employment – and unemployment – are viewed differently in Japan, where the unemployment rate is 2.7% and hasn’t been above 3% since 2017.

The RBNZ, by comparison, forecasts rising interest rates will lead to rising unemployment, possibly tipping above 5% in the near future.

Read more:
Interest rates: the case for cutting them permanently to zero

Japan’s workers benefit from an “implicit contract” between business and the rest of Japanese society, which delivers long-term employment. This implicit contract drives the BoJ policy of keeping interest rates low to fight inflation.

This policy broadly aligns with what’s known as “Okun’s Law”. This links increasing unemployment with a reduction in productive output. New Zealand’s policy of increasing unemployment by raising interest rates therefore restricts production, putting upward pressure on prices by restricting supply.

Adding to this, increased welfare payments due to rising unemployment maintain demand for consumer goods at the same time as output is restricted. The New Zealand Treasury forecasts welfare payments will increase by $10 billion over the next four years.

The BoJ policy of keeping the interest rate below zero supports productive output and suppresses the need for increased welfare payments. This likely keeps prices down, as reflected in Japan’s better inflation targeting performance.

The RBNZ policy of increasing rates, on the other hand, restricts output and increases welfare payments, likely adding to inflationary pressures.

3. Business expenses

Finally, raising interest rates might be inflationary when businesses require credit to operate. Compared to Japan, New Zealand businesses now have comparatively higher interest costs.

Increased interest costs translate into increased operational costs that can be passed through to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Increased interest costs in New Zealand are therefore more likely to be inflationary than Japan’s below-zero policy rate. This is reflected in recent inflation data from the two economies.

Reexamining inflation orthodoxy

The Bank of Japan’s divergence from monetary policy orthodoxy raises an important question: by raising interest rates to combat inflation over nearly four decades, have central banks been stamping on the inflation accelerator rather than the brakes?

Furthermore, did hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders need to lose their jobs at various times during this period?

By deliberately leaving the interest rate below zero, Japan has seen better inflation outcomes than New Zealand, where official policy has seen rates continually adjusted – the majority of which were increases.

There are other factors that may contribute to Japan’s low inflation, such as government price controls and an ageing population. But as New Zealand tries to manage rising costs of living, it may be time to examine Japan’s approach and question orthodox wisdom about dealing with inflation.

Michael Mouat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Japan has gone its own way on fighting inflation – can NZ learn from a global outlier? – https://theconversation.com/japan-has-gone-its-own-way-on-fighting-inflation-can-nz-learn-from-a-global-outlier-210618

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Mouat, Researcher in Economic Geography, Massey University

Like most countries over the past three years, New Zealand has tried to manage inflation by increasing interest rates. Japan, on the other hand, has taken a different tack – with clear success.

In 2016, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) set the country’s interest rate at -0.1% and left it there. During the same period, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has adjusted the interest rate 18 times, with 12 upward adjustments since the end of 2021.

Japan’s annual inflation rate peaked at 4.4% in January 2023, while New Zealand’s peaked at 7.3% in June 2022, before dropping to 6.0% in June this year.

What might explain these differences in interest rate policy and inflation outcomes? The answer begins with how Japan views inflation in the first place.

Inflation as a supply issue

Since the early 1980s, most central banks have believed inflation could be combated by increasing the base interest rate. This would cause domestic demand for goods and services to decrease, suppress wages and increase unemployment – eventually triggering a fall in general price levels.

New Zealand enshrined this approach in the Reserve Bank Act 1989, which introduced the RBNZ monetary framework. Since 1999, the main policy tool for adjusting inflation has been the official cash rate (OCR), more or less mirroring the global central bank consensus.

Put bluntly, raising the OCR suppresses demand until unemployment is high enough for prices to fall.

Read more:
UK interest rates: crashing the economy is no way to bring down inflation

In contrast to New Zealand and elsewhere, the BoJ board sees the recent inflation episode as primarily caused by “transient” supply issues. So, raising interest rates to suppress demand has no effect on supply chains disrupted by things such as a global pandemic, the war in Ukraine or cuts to oil production.

While not necessarily short lived, these disruptions are seen by Japan’s central bank as transient because they are unlikely to cause permanent structural changes. With it’s focus on supply issues, Japan has ultimately fared better.

Why interest rates could be inflationary

There are three reasons why Japan’s refusal to tinker with interest rates may have been more successful at fighting inflation than New Zealand’s orthodox policy of raising rates.

1. Interest income

Securities such as government bonds attract interest. So, raising interest rates has meant new interest income began flowing from the public to private sector – in particular to those who have the money to invest in government bonds.

Treasury has calculated that interest income will more than double in 2023 – meaning an extra NZ$3.4 billion will flow to private sector investors. At least some of those billions will be spent on goods and services, adding to New Zealand’s existing inflationary pressures.

Japan’s policy of holding the interest rate below 0% means issuing government securities does not provide significant new interest income, which would ultimately put upward pressure on prices.

2. Employment

Employment – and unemployment – are viewed differently in Japan, where the unemployment rate is 2.7% and hasn’t been above 3% since 2017.

The RBNZ, by comparison, forecasts rising interest rates will lead to rising unemployment, possibly tipping above 5% in the near future.

Read more:
Interest rates: the case for cutting them permanently to zero

Japan’s workers benefit from an “implicit contract” between business and the rest of Japanese society, which delivers long-term employment. This implicit contract drives the BoJ policy of keeping interest rates low to fight inflation.

This policy broadly aligns with what’s known as “Okun’s Law”. This links increasing unemployment with a reduction in productive output. New Zealand’s policy of increasing unemployment by raising interest rates therefore restricts production, putting upward pressure on prices by restricting supply.

Adding to this, increased welfare payments due to rising unemployment maintain demand for consumer goods at the same time as output is restricted. The New Zealand Treasury forecasts welfare payments will increase by $10 billion over the next four years.

The BoJ policy of keeping the interest rate below zero supports productive output and suppresses the need for increased welfare payments. This likely keeps prices down, as reflected in Japan’s better inflation targeting performance.

The RBNZ policy of increasing rates, on the other hand, restricts output and increases welfare payments, likely adding to inflationary pressures.

3. Business expenses

Finally, raising interest rates might be inflationary when businesses require credit to operate. Compared to Japan, New Zealand businesses now have comparatively higher interest costs.

Increased interest costs translate into increased operational costs that can be passed through to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Increased interest costs in New Zealand are therefore more likely to be inflationary than Japan’s below-zero policy rate. This is reflected in recent inflation data from the two economies.

Reexamining inflation orthodoxy

The Bank of Japan’s divergence from monetary policy orthodoxy raises an important question: by raising interest rates to combat inflation over nearly four decades, have central banks been stamping on the inflation accelerator rather than the brakes?

Furthermore, did hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders need to lose their jobs at various times during this period?

By deliberately leaving the interest rate below zero, Japan has seen better inflation outcomes than New Zealand, where official policy has seen rates continually adjusted – the majority of which were increases.

There are other factors that may contribute to Japan’s low inflation, such as government price controls and an ageing population. But as New Zealand tries to manage rising costs of living, it may be time to examine Japan’s approach and question orthodox wisdom about dealing with inflation.

Michael Mouat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Japan has gone its own way on fighting inflation – can NZ can learn from a global outlier? – https://theconversation.com/japan-has-gone-its-own-way-on-fighting-inflation-can-nz-can-learn-from-a-global-outlier-210618

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrick D. Nunn, Professor of Geography, School of Law and Society, University of the Sunshine Coast

Can you imagine a scientist who could neither read nor write, who spoke their wisdom in riddles, in tales of fantastic beings flying through the sky, fighting each another furiously and noisily, drinking the ocean dry, and throwing giant spears with force enough to leave massive holes in rocky headlands?

Our newly published research in the journal Oral Tradition shows memories of a volcanic eruption in Fiji some 2,500 years ago were encoded in oral traditions in precisely these ways.

They were never intended as fanciful stories, but rather as the pragmatic foundations of a system of local risk management.

Life-changing events

Around 2,500 years ago, at the western end of the island of Kadavu in the southern part of Fiji, the ground shook, the ocean became agitated, and clouds of billowing smoke and ash poured into the sky.

When the clouds cleared, the people saw a new mountain had formed, its shape resembling a mound of earth in which yams are grown. This gave the mountain its name – Nabukelevu, the giant yam mound. (It was renamed Mount Washington during Fiji’s colonial history.)

So dramatic, so life-changing were the events associated with this eruption, the people who witnessed it told stories about it. These stories have endured more than two millennia, faithfully passed on across roughly 100 generations to reach us today.

Scientists used to dismiss such stories as fictions, devalue them with labels like “myth” or “legend”. But the situation is changing.

Today, we are starting to recognise that many such “stories” are authentic memories of human pasts, encoded in oral traditions in ways that represent the worldviews of people from long ago.

In other words, these stories served the same purpose as scientific accounts, and the people who told them were trying to understand the natural world, much like scientists do today.

Battle of the vu

The most common story about the 2,500-year-old eruption of Nabukelevu is one involving a “god” (vu in Fijian) named Tanovo from the island of Ono, about 56km from the volcano.

Tanovo’s view of the sunset became blocked one day by this huge mountain. Our research identifies this as a volcanic dome that was created during the eruption, raising the height of the mountain several hundred feet.

Enraged, Tanovo flew to Nabukelevu and started to tear down the mountain, a process described by local residents as driva qele (stealing earth). This explains why even today the summit of Nabukelevu has a crater.

But Tanovo was interrupted by the “god” of Nabukelevu, named Tautaumolau. The pair started fighting. A chase ensued through the sky and, as the two twisted and turned, the earth being carried by Tanovo started falling to the ground, where it is said to have “created” islands.

We conclude that the sequence in which these islands are said to have been created is likely to represent the movement of the ash plume from the eruption, as shown on the map below.

‘Myths’ based in fact

Geologists would today find it exceedingly difficult to deduce such details of an ancient eruption. But here, in the oral traditions of Kadavu people, this information is readily available.

Another detail we would never know if we did not have the oral traditions is about the tsunami the eruption caused.

In some versions of the story, one of the “gods” is so frightened, he hides beneath the sea. But his rival comes along and drinks up all the water at that place, a detail our research interprets as a memory of the ocean withdrawing prior to tsunami impact.

Other details in the oral traditions recall how one god threw a massive spear at his rival but missed, leaving behind a huge hole in a rock. This is a good example of how landforms likely predating the eruption can be retrofitted to a narrative.

Our study adds to the growing body of scientific research into “myths” and “legends”, showing that many have a basis in fact, and the details they contain add depth and breadth to our understanding of human pasts.

The Kadavu volcano stories discussed here also show ancient societies were no less risk aware and risk averse than ours are today. The imperative was to survive, greatly aided by keeping alive memories of all the hazards that existed in a particular place.

Australian First Peoples’ cultures are replete with similar stories.

Literate people, those who read and write, tend to be impressed by the extraordinary time depth of oral traditions, like those about the 2,500-year old eruption of Nabukelevu. But not everyone is.

In early 2019, I was sitting and chatting to Ratu Petero Uluinaceva in Waisomo Village, after he had finished relating the Ono people’s story of the eruption. I told him this particular story recalled events which occurred more than two millennia ago – and thought he might be impressed. But he wasn’t.

“We know our stories are that old, that they recall our ancient history,” he told me with a grin. “But we are glad you have now learned this too!”

Acknowledgements: The original research this article is based on was conducted in collaboration with Loredana Lancini and Rita Compatangelo-Soussignan (University of Le Mans), Meli Nanuku and Kaliopate Tavola (Fiji Museum), Taniela Bolea (University of the Sunshine Coast) and Paul Geraghty (University of the South Pacific).

Patrick D. Nunn receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australia Pacific Climate Partnership, the Asia-Pacific Network, the Natural Environment Research Council (UK) and the British Academy.

The original research this article is based on was conducted in collaboration with Loredana Lancini and Rita Compatangelo-Soussignan (University of Le Mans), Meli Nanuku and Kaliopate Tavola (Fiji Museum), Taniela Bolea (University of the Sunshine Coast) and Paul Geraghty (University of the South Pacific).

– ref. A dramatic volcano eruption changed lives in Fiji 2,500 years ago. 100 generations have kept the story alive – https://theconversation.com/a-dramatic-volcano-eruption-changed-lives-in-fiji-2-500-years-ago-100-generations-have-kept-the-story-alive-211619

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shobi Sivathamboo, Research Fellow, Monash University

When 20-year-old Disney Channel star Cameron Boyce died of “sudden unexpected death in epilepsy” (known as SUDEP) in 2019, his parents had not even heard of the condition.

“We didn’t know about SUDEP. We have family members who are doctors who never heard of SUDEP,” Cameron’s father Victor said in an interview.

We were clueless, completely clueless. The first time we heard [of] SUDEP is when the coroner told us that’s what took our son.

Most of us have heard of epilepsy, a brain condition that causes recurrent and spontaneous seizures. Lesser known to the public is that seizures can lead to an uncommon but fatal complication known as sudden unexpected death in epilepsy.

What is sudden unexpected death in epilepsy?

Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy is when someone with epilepsy dies without any warning and there is no other cause found. It often occurs immediately after a night-time convulsive seizure. Victims are often found in bed and lying face down.

While this can occur at any age, it particularly affects young people – the average age at death is only 26 years.

The risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy is highest in those who have convulsive or “tonic-clonic” seizures. With these types of seizures, the muscles stiffen, there is loss of consciousness, and the body starts jerking rhythmically.

This can cause a fast heart rate, as well as long pauses to breathing, which decrease oxygen levels. These seizures can place a lot of stress on the body.

Even one convulsive seizure in the past year can increase the risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy. In one Swedish study, having one convulsive seizure and not sharing a bedroom (meaning no-one is there to intervene if a seizure occurs in the night) made the condition 67 times more likely than those who do not have convulsive seizures and share a bedroom. As the number of convulsive seizures increase, the risk of sudden unexpected death also increases.

Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy is the leading cause of death from epilepsy and accounts for over 80% of epilepsy deaths.

While the overall risk of SUDEP is low, with about 1 in 1,000 people with epilepsy affected each year, this risk increases to 1 in 150 in those with poorly controlled seizures. The risk increases with time, as epilepsy is often a lifelong condition, and the longer the exposure, the higher the risk.

But these figures are thought to be an underestimate. Because deaths commonly occur at night, they aren’t often witnessed, limiting what information there is about the time of death – for instance, whether there a seizure right before death. Often, victims are found deceased in bed and a history of epilepsy is overlooked as the cause of death.

People with epilepsy often have other serious medical problems such as heart disease, which can make identifying the cause of death difficult.

Autopsy findings are often inconclusive or attributed to heart issues, as even among forensic specialists there is limited awareness that epilepsy can cause sudden death.

Do we know what causes sudden unexpected death in epilepsy?

It’s still unclear why one person can have hundreds of convulsive seizures in their lifetime and won’t die of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy, and yet another can die after only a handful.

We think this is because there are many different causes.

Looking at sudden unexpected death in epilepsy cases that happened in hospital, researchers found that in all cases, a convulsive seizure caused a “flat-lining” of brain activity, which stopped the heart beat and breathing – all within minutes, causing rapid death. Survivors in this study all received prompt resuscitation within minutes.

But in some people, seizures can trigger dangerous irregular heart rhythms – which may be another cause of the sudden death.

Some genetic conditions can impair how molecules responsible for electrical conduction in the heart and brain function. This can increase the risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy by making epilepsy and abnormal heart conditions more likely to occur together, heightening the risk of death.

Seizures can deprive the major organs of oxygen. Over time, repeated decreases in oxygen levels can cause damage to not only the heart, but also to the brain.

In people who died of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy, areas of the brain that control breathing and heart function had shrunk. Over time, this may increase the risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy by lowering the brain’s ability to control vital functions.

I or a loved one have epilepsy. What can we do?

Unfortunately, people with epilepsy and their families are often not counselled on sudden unexpected death in epilepsy and its risks. All newly diagnosed epilepsy patients should be informed about these risks at the time of diagnosis or shortly afterwards.

Individual risk varies. For most people with epilepsy, the overall risk will be low. Control of convulsive seizures is associated with the most significant risk reduction.

Most of the time this is achieved with the use of one or more epilepsy medications.

In people who don’t respond to epilepsy medications, brain surgery, implantable neurostimulators, or dietary therapies may offer some people hope in decreasing seizure frequency.

Read more:
What are ketogenic diets? Can they treat epilepsy and brain cancer?

It’s important to remember sudden unexpected death in epilepsy can happen to anyone with epilepsy – even those with well-controlled epilepsy.

Taking medications as prescribed and not missing doses, getting a good night’s sleep, avoiding alcohol and recreational drugs, and managing stress may reduce the risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy by making seizures less likely.

For some people who continue to have convulsive seizures, sharing a bedroom, or night-time monitoring devices may offer peace of mind and help with sudden unexpected death in epilepsy risk.

The causes of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy are many – understanding these will help develop targeted treatments. We need to develop tests that can identify people at high risk so we can optimise prevention strategies.

The development of night-time monitoring systems to identify dangerous seizures in the home and alert caregivers or emergency services is currently underway, and are sorely needed.

Shobi Sivathamboo receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. She is affiliated with The International League Against Epilepsy SUDEP Task Force.

– ref. What is sudden unexpected death in epilepsy, and what causes it? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-sudden-unexpected-death-in-epilepsy-and-what-causes-it-208281

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Younger, Lecturer, Southern Ocean Vertebrate Ecology, University of Tasmania

Albatross are among the world’s largest flying birds, with wingspans that can stretch beyond a remarkable three metres. These majestic animals harness ocean winds to travel thousands of kilometres in search of food while barely flapping their wings.

Young albatross, embarking on their first journey, can spend up to five years at sea without ever touching land.

Yet not all albatross are the same. Across the world’s oceans there exist 22 species, with many sharing an overlapping range around the Southern Ocean — a region synonymous with cold, roaring winds and towering waves.

Our new research published today shows how albatross species evolved different beak shapes to make the most of the ocean’s food resources. These species have adapted to different seafood diets.

Read more:
An ocean like no other: the Southern Ocean’s ecological richness and significance for global climate

Move over, Darwin’s finches!

In 1835 Charles Darwin discovered the finches of the Galápagos Islands and noted their beaks varied in shape and size to suit different diets. This observation became a centrepiece for the theory of evolution, showing how species adapt to different ways of life.

From a single common ancestor, Darwin’s finches diversified. Some birds have thick beaks for feeding on seeds and nuts, while others have pointed beaks for eating insects. This variation allows species to specialise, helping them to share available food sources and limit competition.

Albatross have fascinating beaks. Unlike most other birds, they have a “compound” beak made of multiple pieces of keratin. Albatross spend most of their lives at sea, so they have adapted to drink seawater. They use a special gland to remove salt from the seawater and their beaks contain tube-like passages that excrete the salty liquid.

By studying the shape of albatross beaks in three dimensions (3D), our new research shows that, just like Darwin’s finches, albatross beaks vary in size and shape to adapt to different diets.

The 3D scanning revolution

Wildlife research is undergoing a revolution as scientists use new 3D scanning and modelling techniques to compare the anatomy of animals. This gives fresh insights into their ecology and evolution.

Using museum specimens, we made 3D digital models of beaks for 61 birds from 12 different albatross species. We compared the size and shape of different species’ beaks. We tested if closely-related species had similar beaks. Alternatively, beaks might be more alike between species that are distantly related but consume similar food. Such a pattern would be an example of convergent evolution.

We found beak size and shape varied between albatross species, making it a useful tool for identifying species that otherwise look similar.

Beaks also varied between species that eat either invertebrate prey, fish, or a mixture of both. Even in species that have similarly shaped beaks and diets, variations in beak size enable them to focus on prey of different sizes within the same category, such as small versus large fish.

The variation is most obvious in changes in the length and thickness of the beaks, but they can also vary in how the separate keratin pieces come together to make up the whole shape of the beak. These differences help albatross species to avoid competition with each other as they forage together over the open ocean.

A future for albatross?

This research was made possible by the large collection of more than 750 albatross specimens preserved at the Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery.

Almost all of these specimens came to the museum after being caught as bycatch in past longline fisheries, where bird carcasses were collected to identify which species were being captured on hooks.

Fortunately, improved fishing methods have reduced albatross bycatch, but this collection now remains as a valuable resource for new research like this into the biology of these birds.

Sadly, fisheries are not the only threat these extraordinary birds face. The first European record of an albatross from 1593 tells us how the bird was captured, killed and eaten. Today, of the 22 albatross species, two are considered critically endangered, seven species are endangered, and a further six species are considered vulnerable.

Albatross are still frequent victims of fisheries bycatch, plastic pollution, and introduced predators on their breeding islands.

Like most wildlife species, the persistent threat of climate change looms large, as the world’s oceans warm and alter their habitat and the abundance of their prey.

Despite their evolutionary marvels and remarkable adaptations to the harshest ocean on Earth, the albatross serves as a poignant reminder of nature’s fragility. It is our duty to ensure their wings continue to soar above our oceans for generations to come.

Read more:
Plastic in the ocean kills more threatened albatrosses than we thought

Jane Younger receives funding from National Geographic Society and WIRES.

Josh Tyler receives funding from the Evolution Education Trust.

David Hocking does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Thick ones, pointy ones – how albatross beaks evolved to match their prey – https://theconversation.com/thick-ones-pointy-ones-how-albatross-beaks-evolved-to-match-their-prey-211461

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitlin Vincent, Lecturer in Creative Industries, The University of Melbourne

The stories told on the operatic stage have received critical attention for their representation of gender, particularly the often violent fate of their heroines.

But little attention has been paid to women’s representation behind the scenes in Australia. In part, this is due to a lack of readily available data about women’s actual status within opera companies.

We have now created a unique dataset to address this gap.

We looked at the production credits for staged operas presented by Opera Australia, Opera Queensland, the State Opera of South Australia, Victorian Opera and West Australian Opera from 2005 to 2020.

For each production, we tracked the gender profile of the practitioners credited as conductors, directors and designers. We looked at who was credited when, and on which kinds of operas.

We found evidence of pervasive gender inequality.

Read more:
Opera is stuck in a racist, sexist past, while many in the audience have moved on

Gender inequality at top opera companies

Across the five companies, women were hugely underrepresented in the core creative leadership roles of conductor and director.

Women held just 5% of conductor credits over the 16 seasons, and less than a quarter of director credits. Not only were women less likely to see initial credits compared to men, they were also less likely to have opportunities to work on more than one production.

At individual companies, women’s representation was lowest at Opera Australia and the State Opera of South Australia.

Less than 3% of conductors and 19% of directors credited at Opera Australia were women. The State Opera of South Australia did not credit a single woman conductor between 2005 and 2020 and just 17% of its credited directors were women.

In comparison, two of the smallest companies – Opera Queensland and Victorian Opera – had by far the highest representation for women in both roles.

Women also saw low representation as designers, comprising 21% of set designers and 9% of lighting designers. Women were much more likely to be credited in the feminised role of costume designer.

Inequality is greatest in productions of the canon

The kinds of operas programmed also affected women’s representation as conductors, directors and designers.

Canonical works like Puccini’s La bohème (1895) and Bizet’s Carmen (1875) are seen as low-risk because they are recognised as masterpieces of the genre and are popular with existing opera audiences.

Canonical operas dominated programming at four of the five companies, followed by slightly less popular works from the 19th century and earlier, such as Rossini’s La Cenerentola (1817) and Bizet’s Les pêcheurs de perles (1863).

The combination of canonical and slightly less canonical works comprised 84% of programming at West Australian Opera, 79% at Opera Australia, 73% at Opera Queensland and 64% at the State Opera of South Australia. (The outlier, Victorian Opera, explicitly focuses on modern operas.)

However, women practitioners were notably absent from the production teams for these popular works. On canonical operas, women’s representation as conductors dropped to less than 1%. Women directors and designers saw almost universal drops in representation across both categories of repertoire.

Instead, women were more likely to be credited on high-risk modern operas. These works are thought to be less popular with audiences and are programmed less frequently and for fewer performances than canonical works.

Women also had higher levels of representation in musical theatre works, popular with audiences but traditionally holding little prestige in the sector.

Risk perception and gender inequality

Beyond the risk associated with different operas and their ability to attract audiences, a contributing factor for gender inequality in opera is how “risky” certain practitioners are thought to be.

Studies from the creative industries have shown perceptions of risk in the arts are deeply gendered, particularly when it comes to hiring for key artistic or governance roles. While men practitioners are seen as reliable, women are seen as inherently risky.

These biases are exacerbated in fields like opera where work opportunities are driven by personal networks and professional visibility, both of which favour men.

Risk perceptions also have compounding effects. Because modern operas are already seen as “risky”, it appears these productions can take the “risk” of employing women – whereas canonical operas, programmed because they are “safe”, also make the “safe” choice in hiring men.

Risk aversion in funding enables gender inequality

Entrenched gender bias is difficult to shift in any field. But with Australia’s opera companies, government funding policies are exacerbating the field’s existing inequality.

Here again, it comes down to questions of risk.

Australia’s peak arts funding body, now named Creative Australia, has a particular focus on mitigating risk – both financial and artistic – through its operatic policies.

In exchange for multi-year funding support, companies are expected to maintain financial targets and prioritise programming operas that are low-risk financially. Companies are also encouraged to rent existing productions from Opera Australia or co-commission new productions with other companies.

These policies are laudable for their attention to efficient public spending and co-operation. But policies can have unintended impacts.

By encouraging companies to program low-risk popular operas, Creative Australia is trying to mitigate financial risk. But such policies don’t take into account the fact that women practitioners are largely absent from these works.

In the same way, policies that promote co-operation don’t consider how this leads to companies reproducing gender imbalances. Opera Australia is framed as a key source of rental productions for other companies but also has some of the lowest rates of representation for women directors and conductors.

It is critical that arts funding bodies and policymakers consider the practical impacts of their policies. At the same time, opera companies need to acknowledge the extent to which their own organisational practices are driving inequality within the sector.

The scale of gender inequality at work in Australian opera production won’t be easily remedied. But shining a light on the extent of the problem is a start towards making the sector accountable for its performance, both on and off the stage.

Read more:
Does opera deserve its privileged status within arts funding?

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 95% male conductors, 70% ageing classics and zero appetite for risk: what’s wrong with elite Australian opera – https://theconversation.com/95-male-conductors-70-ageing-classics-and-zero-appetite-for-risk-whats-wrong-with-elite-australian-opera-211270

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Buckberry, Telethon Kids Institute / Senior lecturer, ANU College of Health and Medicine, Australian National University

Stem cells are special kinds of cells in our body that can become any other type of cell. They have huge potential for medicine, and trials are currently under way using stem cells to replace damaged cells in diseases like Parkinson’s.

One way to get stem cells is from human embryos, but this has ethical concerns and practical limitations. Another way is to turn adult cells from the skin or elsewhere into what are called “induced pluripotent stem cells” (iPS cells).

However, these cells sometimes carry a “memory” of the kind of cell they used to be, which can make them less predictable or efficient when we try to turn them into other types of cells.

We have found a way to erase this memory, to make iPS cells function more like embryonic stem cells. Our study is published in Nature.

Great promise for regenerative medicine

Mature, specialised cells like skin cells can be reprogrammed into iPS cells in the lab. These “blank slate” cells show great promise in regenerative medicine, a field focused on regrowing, repairing or replacing damaged or diseased cells, organs or tissues.

Scientists can make iPS cells from a patient’s own tissue, so there’s less risk the new cells will be rejected by the patient’s immune system.

Read more:
Explainer: what are stem cells?

To take one example, iPS cells are being tested for making insulin-producing pancreas cells to help people with diabetes. We’re not there yet, but it’s an example of what might be possible.

Research using iPS cells is a rapidly advancing field, yet many technical challenges remain. Scientists are still figuring out how to better control what cell types iPS cells become and ensure the process is safe.

One of these technical challenges is “epigenetic memory”, where the iPS cells retain traces of the cell type they once were.

Epigenetic memory and how can it impair the use of iPS cells

To understand “epigenetic memory”, let’s first talk about epigenetics. Our DNA carries sequences of instructions known as genes. When various factors influence gene activity (turning them on or off) without changing the DNA sequence itself, this is known as epigenetics – literally meaning “above genetics”.

A cell’s epigenome is a collective term to describe all the epigenetic modifications in a cell. Each of our cells contains the same DNA, but the epigenome controls which genes are turned on or off, which determines whether it becomes a heart cell, a kidney cell, a liver cell, or any other cell type.

You can think of the DNA as a cookbook and the epigenome as a set of bookmarks. The bookmarks don’t alter the recipes, but they direct which ones are used.

Similarly, epigenetic marks guide cells to interpret the genetic code without changing it.

Read more:
Explainer: what is epigenetics?

When we reprogram a mature cell into an iPS cell, we want to erase all its “bookmarks”. However, this doesn’t always work completely. When some bookmarks remain, this “epigenetic memory” can influence the behaviour of the iPS cells.

An iPS cell made from a skin cell can retain a partial “memory” of being a skin cell, which makes it more likely to turn back into a skin-like cell and less likely to turn into other cell types. This is because some of the DNA’s epigenetic marks can tell the cell to behave like a skin cell.

This can be a hurdle for using iPS cells because it can impact the process of turning iPS cells into the types of cells you want. It might also affect the function of the cells once they’re created. If you want to use iPS cells to help repair a pancreas, but the cells have a “memory” of being skin cells, they might not function so well as true pancreatic cells.

How we managed to clear iPS cell epigenetic memory and improve their function

Overcoming the issue of epigenetic memory in iPS cells is a widely recognised challenge for regenerative medicine.

By studying how the epigenome transforms when we reprogram adult skin cells into iPS cells, we discovered a new way to reprogram cells that more completely erases epigenetic memory. We made this discovery by reprogramming cells using a method that imitates how the epigenome of embryo cells is naturally reset.

During the early development of an embryo, before it is implanted into the uterus, the epigenetic marks inherited from the sperm and egg cells are essentially erased. This reset allows the early embryo cells to start fresh and become any cell type as the embryo grows and develops.

By introducing a step during the reprogramming process that briefly mimics this reset process, we made iPS cells that are more like embryonic stem cells than conventional iPS cells.

More effective epigenetic memory erasure in iPS cells will enhance their medical potential. It will allow the iPS cells to behave as “blank slates” like embryonic stem cells, making them more likely to transform into any desired cell type.

If iPS cells can forget their past identities, they can more reliably become any type of cell and help create specific cells needed for therapies, like new insulin-producing cells for someone with diabetes, or neuronal cells for someone with Parkinson’s. It could also reduce the risk of unexpected behaviours or complications when iPS cells are used in medical treatments.

Dr Sam Buckberry has received funding from the NHMRC and WA Department of Health. He is employed by the Telethon Kids Institute, is affiliated with the Australian National University and is on the executive committee of the Australasian Genomics Technology association. He is also a co-inventor on a pending patent (PCT/AU2019/051296) related to correcting epigenetic memory in iPS cells.

– ref. A ‘memory wipe’ for stem cells may be the key to better therapies – https://theconversation.com/a-memory-wipe-for-stem-cells-may-be-the-key-to-better-therapies-206230

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kasey Symons, Postdoctoral research fellow, Swinburne University of Technology

Wednesday night saw the end of the Matildas’ nation-gripping FIFA Women’s World Cup pursuit, losing 3-1 to England in the semi-final in Sydney.

While it was an emotional finish to Australia’s exciting run, the match only further highlighted the record-breaking audiences experiencing the fan culture of women’s football.

This fandom has a notably different flavour from traditional men’s sports fan culture, and could be the defining legacy of the tournament.

A space for all

Women’s football, and most women’s sports, allow space for different fan cultures to come together in a safer and more inclusive environment.

These cultures have been developed over time by those who have felt excluded by traditional sporting environments that can promote toxic elements of masculinity and require fans to behave in particular ways.

Fans in many male sporting cultures are expected to have a prior knowledge, understand rules and intricacies of the game, wear particular merchandise and use specific language to show support. If fans don’t comply with these set behaviours, they can feel like they don’t belong.

Research has shown this is a particularly complicated experience for women. To fit in and feel part of men’s sporting fan culture, they have to modify parts of their gender identity.

Women’s sports create an environment where fans can come as they are, not as who they think they should be. This welcomes everyone to the game, especially people who might have previously looked at sport and thought it wasn’t for them.

A history of exclusion

It is no accident these spaces are welcoming, and speaks to the history of active exclusion women have faced in football.

Women’s international football took off in Australia in the mid-to-late 1970s, with the first recognised game between Australian and New Zealand. Coverage was scarce, and even when it was present, it was often sexist and demeaning.

The timing of this growth of the game is no coincidence, aligning with the FA’s (English Football Association) lifting of the 50-year ban of women’s football in England. The FA didn’t have the power to ban women from playing entirely, so in 1921 it ruled that women’s games couldn’t be played on FA-affiliated grounds.

This hindered the development of football not only in the UK, but around the world, as other nations echoed similar positions.

That there was an international team representing Australia in 1979 is credit to the women, and supportive men, who built spaces for women and girls to play.

In creating new clubs, teams, and competitions, they created environments demonstrating values that were the opposite of those that had previously excluded them.

Fans returning to the sports they love

These welcoming cultures aren’t exclusive to football. Many women’s sporting clubs in Australia have played key roles in contributing to the growing audiences that elite codes are experiencing today. Women’s sporting codes aren’t just attracting new fans but are also re-engaging fans formerly lost to sport.

Research I conducted into the developing fan culture of the AFLW found many fans came to women’s Australian rules football because they were interested in the code but felt alienated by the culture of the men’s game.

Fans shared that AFLW offered a more inclusive culture, and they didn’t have to navigate how to support athletes accused of domestic violence or sexual assault and fear racist or homophobic language. Fans also felt they could do things such as change teams and support multiple teams. People were fans of the competition more broadly and also wanted to generally support women playing the sport they love.

These findings aren’t just bound to Australia. There were distinctly different fan experiences at the men’s and women’s European Football Championships held in 2021 and 2022. Both finals were played in England and featured the hosts.

The men’s final was marred by fan violence, altercations with police and racism, while the women’s competition presented a safe, friendly and inclusive environment, .

Fans of women’s sport around the world are rejecting traditional masculine norms of sports fandom, and developing a counter fan culture.

Read more:
Racism in sport: why it comes to the surface when teams lose

Inclusive supporter groups

Trailblazing volunteers, administrators, coaches and athletes built these spaces for women and non-binary folk to play. But there are also passionate fans on the ground continuing to drive the fan culture.

One group bringing the noise this Women’s World Cup is Matildas Active Support, which states “inclusivity is at our core”. The group coordinates meet-ups pre and post-match, leads chants at the games and brings fans together on social media. The group welcomes everyone to their events, whether that be singing at the top of their lungs or quietly taking it all in.

Diverse fan support like this adds to the family-friendly atmosphere at women’s football, where families with children feel more comfortable to attend, and women in particular feel safe to attend matches alone.

Fans the legacy of this world cup

It’s important women athletes are visible in the media to show the next generation what is possible, and the Matildas are definitely achieving this. But the visibility of fandom and the culture that surrounds women’s football is just as crucial to drive women’s sport forward.

This Women’s World Cup is an opportunity for stakeholders to learn more about the different ways fandom is experienced, and how to connect with diverse fans to continue to grow the audience beyond the tournament and in other women’s sports.

What’s been clear over the last month is that record numbers of women’s football fans have rejected traditional masculine forms of sporting fandom for more inclusive, safe, and friendly expressions.

These fans have been seen. They now must be heard to continue to build on this momentum for women’s sport.

Kasey Symons consults to and conducts research for a number of organisations across Australia. Her research has received funding from organisations including the Victorian Government, and national and state sport governing bodies including the Australian Football League and its clubs and the National Rugby League. Dr Symons is also one of the co-founders of Siren: A Women in Sport Collective.

Paul Bowell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Felt alienated by the men’s game’: how the culture of women’s sport has driven record Matildas viewership – https://theconversation.com/felt-alienated-by-the-mens-game-how-the-culture-of-womens-sport-has-driven-record-matildas-viewership-211524