Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Misha Ketchell, Editor, The Conversation

Today we removed an article titled “Should we ditch big exam halls? Our research shows how high ceilings are associated with a lower score”, because the original research has been found to contain errors and has been retracted by the academic journal that published it.

The Conversation’s article, published on July 3, 2024, was based on a study published online by The Journal of Environmental Psychology on June 26, 2024. It looked at the impact of ceiling heights on the exam performance of Australian students, and found that even after accounting for other factors such as age or past exam experience, higher ceiling heights were statistically correlated with poorer exam results.

After the study was published, a query from a reader of the journal article led the authors to review their calculations.

The authors discovered some honest errors in their work, leading them to conclude that the relationship between ceiling heights and exam score was “more nuanced” than presented in the paper.

The revised research manuscript was reviewed by the same anonymous peer-reviewers who looked at the original research. One reviewer did not feel comfortable assessing the statistical corrections, one advised against publishing the corrected manuscript, and a third recommended revisions.

On this basis, the Journal of Environmental Psychology rejected the amended version. The journal’s response can be found here.

The authors, lead by Isabella Bower, apologise for the error, and are working to resubmit their updated research to another journal.

The Conversation has decided that, in light of the current status of the research, the most appropriate option is to retract our coverage of the study. We are committed to providing accurate and reliable information, and to acknowledging errors in an open and transparent way when they occur.

– ref. Retraction: why we removed an article about a link between exam results and ceiling height – https://theconversation.com/retraction-why-we-removed-an-article-about-a-link-between-exam-results-and-ceiling-height-239930

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed a major victory following the assassination of longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, saying it would change “the balance of power in the region for years to come”.

This may be going further than the circumstances warrant, however. Certainly, the killing of Nasrallah is a remarkable personal victory for Netanyahu, who ordered the strike so he could claim direct responsibility for the action. And it goes a long way towards restoring the Israeli public’s faith in Netanyahu as a security guarantor for Israel.

But there are many questions that now follow this action. Will Israel, for example, launch a ground invasion against Hezbollah in Lebanon?

If it does, it would certainly find Hezbollah at its weakest point because of the destruction of its communications network in the Israeli attack on its pagers and walkie-talkies earlier this month.

Israel has also killed eight of Hezbollah’s nine most senior military commanders and about half of its leadership council.

To ensure this is a lasting victory, Israel really needs to follow up somehow. It needs to take the opportunity of Hezbollah’s disarray to destroy as much of the organisation and its arsenal of 150,000 missiles, rockets and drones as it can.

By the same token, Hezbollah would certainly be able to inflict serious losses on Israeli ground forces if they go into southern Lebanon, not least because Hezbollah is reported to have an extensive tunnel network in the border area.

And Hezbollah is a large organisation that claims to have as many as 100,000 fighters, though US intelligence believes it’s probably somewhere closer to 40,000–50,000. Even so, that is a formidable number of militants.

Hezbollah, however, does not want to get involved in further fighting with Israel at this stage, if it can avoid it. It’s significant that, even after Israel’s most recent attacks, Hezbollah has not been firing thousands of missiles, rockets and drones daily into Israel, which it is believed to be capable of doing.

Can Hezbollah regroup?

There is no doubt this is an unprecedented blow to Hezbollah’s leadership and to the organisation itself.

The first thing the group needs to do is re-establish its leadership. There are two names that have already been suggested: Hashem Safieddine, Nasrallah’s cousin, and Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general.

Then, the new leadership needs to investigate how deeply Hezbollah has been penetrated by Israeli intelligence. The killing of Nasrallah and the explosion of the pagers and walkie-talkies illustrate that Israel has extraordinarily good intelligence on the internal workings of Hezbollah.

Lastly, Hezbollah has lost a lot of face in the eyes of the Lebanese public. Those in Lebanon who are against Hezbollah’s standing as a state within a state will oppose it even more now because they’ll say it’s simply not doing what it claims to do, which is protecting Lebanon from Israel.

Hezbollah has never faced a critical situation like this before. That’s why whoever takes over is going to have a massive job to re-establish its credibility as a fighting force.

But that said, it does have the capacity to re-establish itself because Hezbollah is a major organisation and very much a part of the Lebanese political scene. The Hezbollah-led coalition has a bloc of more than 60 seats in the Lebanese parliament – not a majority but significant nonetheless. It also provides social services for poor Shi’a residents in southern Beirut and southern Lebanon.

The other major question is whether Iran, Hezbollah’s military backer, will react to the killing of Nasrallah.

When Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in July, Iran promised retaliation, but has not taken it yet.

After the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, in Baghdad in 2020, Iran fired more than a dozen missiles at two bases in Iraq housing US troops, and that was it.

In April, its reaction to the Israeli killing of some Islamic Revolutionary Guard personnel in the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, was more intense. Tehran launched about 300 missiles, drones and rockets at Israel. But it also telegraphed its retaliation well in advance, and Israel’s Iron Dome, with the help of US defensive support, was able to prevent any significant damage.

These recent reactions show it is clearly not in Iran’s interest to have a wider war take place at this time.

Read more:
Is Iran’s anti-Israel and American rhetoric all bark and no bite?

Where does the region go from here?

Hezbollah doesn’t have many friends in the Middle East, mainly because it is a militant group from the minority Shi’a sect of Islam, which has been seen as opposed to the interests of more moderate Sunni Arab states, including Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states.

Essentially, there will be some quiet satisfaction among Sunni Arab leaders that Nasrallah has gone because he was seen as someone who could cause a great deal of trouble for the region.

Briefly, following the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, Nasrallah was the most popular leader in the Arab world, according to opinion polls. That didn’t last very long, but he remained influential across the region.

The other aspect that would make Sunni Arab states and leaders quietly comfortable with the removal of Nasrallah and the disarray (if only temporary) of Hezbollah is that all the fighting in the Middle East – the war in Gaza and now the conflict in Lebanon – is causing anger at street level in countries such as Egypt, Jordan and others in the region. This makes the region more unstable – and Sunni leaders nervous.

At this stage, the elements that would be prepared to support Hezbollah are limited to the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shi’a militia groups based in Iraq. But they’re both some distance away and aren’t able to materially affect the conflict in the region.

With Iran not wanting an all-out war in the region, it’s not likely its leaders will be encouraging these proxy groups to get involved in a situation that could get further out of hand.

So there are a lot of players who want to restore some sort of normality to the region. That includes the Biden administration, which fears the ongoing conflicts will divide the Democratic vote in the November US presidential election.

This plays into Netanyahyu’s hands, as he is able to act independently of US attempts to rein him in. Whatever he does, he will continue to receive US military support.

Read more:
Does Hezbollah represent Lebanon? And what impact will the death of longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah have?

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Benjamin Netanyahu is triumphant after Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination. But will it change anything? – https://theconversation.com/benjamin-netanyahu-is-triumphant-after-hassan-nasrallahs-assassination-but-will-it-change-anything-240090

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Is the government seriously interested in changing arrangements on negative gearing? After days of questions to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who would know?

They’ve engaged in obfuscation at every turn.

Today, Chalmers was asked, at a news conference in Beijing, whether he had told treasury to model reforms of the tax break for property investors.

He replied:

It is not unusual at all for governments or for treasurers to get advice on contentious issues which are in the public domain, including in the parliament. It is not unusual for treasurers to do that. But we have made it very clear through the course of this week that we have a broad and ambitious housing policy already and those changes aren’t part of it.

Not unreasonably, the Australian Financial Review took this as Chalmers owning the request to treasury. But his office contested the interpretation, insisting he’d said nothing he hadn’t said before – taking us back to the position that the request formally remains an orphan.

The story started earlier in the week with a report in the Nine papers that the government had asked treasury for work on options “to scale back negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions”. The report did not specify who’d done the asking, although Albanese later said it wasn’t him, and told reporters to quiz Chalmers instead.

That treasury is working on options has inevitably raised the suggestion that reforms to negative gearing is on the agenda, perhaps as an election commitment.

Given the government’s reaction, the story may have been a genuine “leak” rather than a deliberate balloon (although it’s often hard to be sure who’s holding the sting of balloons).

Anyway, it put Albanese in a very grumpy mood in his television interviews. Fancy journalists trying to insist on a straight answer when he kept dodging and coming up with, in today’s much-used term, “word salads”.

He stressed the government had no plans to change negative gearing. Then he got cross when it was pointed out it had had “no plans” to change the stage 3 tax cuts, until it did suddenly have a plan.

Does the history of the stage 3 change give us any clue to what’s going on here?

In that instance, Chalmers was the one wanting change as far back as soon after the 2022 election. Albanese held out, worried about what a broken promise would do to his reputation for integrity.

In the end, under the pressure of a looming byelection, change came this year. Although the shift was well received, we’re now seeing it did damage him on the integrity front – his word is not automatically believed, and his phrases are carefully parsed.

Thus when he was asked, “are you considering taking negative gearing reform and capital gains tax reform to the next election?” and he replied “No, we’re not”, this was not regarded as a definite “no”.

Could it be that Chalmers is again putting himself at the forefront of seeking to alter policy, while Albanese is equivocal or resisting?

If that is so, it reprises an old story that crosses governments: differences between a treasurer with strong views (Paul Keating, Peter Costello) and a leader (Bob Hawke, John Howard) who is politically more cautious.

If there is any substance to the theory of a difference between Chalmers and Albanese, the treasurer would be very frustrated with his boss for hosing down a change to negative gearing, to the extent he has. And Albanese would be very annoyed if he thought the treasurer was responsible, by seeking options, for landing him in this pickle.

There are strong views among experts about whether negative gearing should be scrapped or capped.

But given that making the change would not significantly add to the total supply of housing, it’s really about the politics.

The Greens are taking skin off Labor on the housing issue, as well as holding up two government housing bills in the Senate. The government is worried the Greens could successfully milk the issue at the election, especially with younger voters, many of whom see house prices rising further out of reach and rents badly stretching their budgets.

Labor is pouring billions into housing but the results are set to fall well short of the numbers needed.

Tackling negative gearing might be a “look over here” policy to undermine the Greens and attract the young. But it would be ripe for a fear campaign from the Coalition and, as Albanese says, it wouldn’t solve the problem of the inadequate supply of homes.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from the Hill: Albanese and Chalmers play cat-and-mouse on negative gearing with the public – and possibly with each other – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-and-chalmers-play-cat-and-mouse-on-negative-gearing-with-the-public-and-possibly-with-each-other-240020

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Pryke, Honorary Research Associate, University of Sydney

Gilgamesh, a new opera from Opera Australia, Sydney Chamber Orchestra and Carriageworks, gives a visceral retelling of a story from a forgotten age, exploring ideas of love, tyranny and what it means to be human.

This new production reimagines the legend for 21st century audiences, while engaging cleverly with the epic’s timeless themes.

The young king, Gilgamesh (Jeremy Kleeman), starts out as a tyrant and goes on a journey to find the wisdom needed to become a just ruler.

Along the way, he meets his companion, Enkidu (a remarkable Mitchell Riley), a man born in the wilderness and civilised through two weeks of sex with the wise priestess Shamhat (Jessica O’Donoghue).

Together, Gilgamesh and Enkidu fight the monstrous forest guardian Humbaba (Daniel Szeisong Todd) and the mighty Bull of Heaven. They also unwisely provoke the beauteous goddess of love and war Ishtar (Jane Sheldon).

The heroes’ rash actions anger the gods, leading to Enkidu’s untimely death. Gilgamesh seeks eternal life and renewed youth, before finally returning home.

Read more:
Guide to the classics: the Epic of Gilgamesh

A rediscovered story

This production is the first English language opera of the Epic of Gilgamesh, a literary masterpiece from ancient Mesopotamia.

The story was first written down on clay tablets in the cuneiform script more than 4,000 years ago. Although Gilgamesh was famous in the ancient world, his story disappeared from cultural awareness along with the ability to read cuneiform around the 1st century CE.

In a feat of scholarly virtuosity, 19th century scholars deciphered the rediscovered cuneiform script, using a kind of Persian Rosetta Stone known as the Behistun monument.

In 1857, the Royal Asiatic Society held a kind of “cuneiform competition”, where scholars completed secret translations of a previously unseen inscription.

When their translations were found to be very similar, it was clear the secrets of the complex script had finally been unlocked.

Music and myth

In the 150 years since the Epic of Gilgamesh was rediscovered, the legend has inspired music spanning numerous genres, from hip hop, to Australian indie pop, to metal.

As with this new opera, many of these modern adaptations have focused on the loving relationship between the story’s two heroes, Gilgamesh and Enkidu. Their connection has been viewed as the world’s first bromance, or one of the oldest known love stories.

The opera leans into the transformative nature of heroes’ epic love: Enkidu’s wildman innocence is corrupted by Gilgamesh; Gilgamesh is emboldened by the presence of his lover.

There is much to admire in the approach to the text taken by composer Jack Symonds and librettist Louis Garrick.

At times, excerpts of text from an English translation of the epic are incorporated into the score. This use of ancient prose is particularly effective in the scene where Gilgamesh rudely rejects Ishtar’s marriage proposal; it would be difficult to create a more brutal polemic than that employed by Gilgamesh against the goddess in the ancient narrative.

At other times, new scenes and dialogue are crafted to draw deeper from the rich well of narrative ideas. This can be seen where Ishtar and Shamhat plan to civilise Enkidu (engineered by Gilgamesh in the original story), and a scene where Gilgamesh and Enkidu become lovers in the Cedar Forest.

The production

Kleeman gives a heroic turn as a man struggling to comprehend his mortality and his growing love for Enkidu.

Sheldon is divine as Ishtar the vengeful goddess of love, seamlessly blending the deity’s power and unpredictability.

As Utanapishti, the legendary flood survivor often compared with biblical Noah, Jessica O’Donoghue gives a haunting performance suited to one who has witnessed the destruction of most of humanity.

The set (design by Elizabeth Gadsby) uses as its centrepiece a Chinese elm tree with 1,000 gold fabric leaves, mirroring the combination of scale and simplicity seen in the narrative.

This reflects the creative team’s engagement with the epic’s ecological themes. The Cedar Forest is recognised in the original epic for its aesthetic and commercial value. Its destruction by the heroes is an act of sacrilege.

Directed by Kip Williams, Gilgamesh emphasises the violence of environmental destruction through the bloody death of the forest guardian Humbaba in a stomach-turning scene slippery with gore.

The love story between Gilgamesh and Enkidu is at the opera’s heart. Building on the intimate connection between the heroes in the ancient story, the two heroes sing songs of love together. Their vocal performances are matched with a dynamic physicality as they wrestle, embrace and cradle one another.

Those familiar with Gilgamesh will enjoy discovering where new creative directions have been taken in the opera. For those new to the story, the opera gives a vibrant introduction into the power and drama of one of the world’s most ancient masterpieces.

In the Babylonian legend, Gilgamesh finally abandons his quest for immortality. With this exciting new production of the epic, his ancient song of love and loss will continue to live on long into the future.

Gilgamesh,by Opera Australia, Sydney Chamber Orchestra and Carriageworks, is at Carriageworks, Sydney, until October 5.

Louise Pryke was a guest of the Gilgamesh production.

– ref. New Australian opera Gilgamesh captures the power of one of the world’s most ancient masterpieces – https://theconversation.com/new-australian-opera-gilgamesh-captures-the-power-of-one-of-the-worlds-most-ancient-masterpieces-237765

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Oscar, Senior Lecturer, Visual Communication, School of Design, University of Technology Sydney

In The Substance, the career of former actor Elisabeth Sparkle (Demi Moore) is diminished to daytime aerobics instructor on a television network. On her 50th birthday, she is made redundant by a network executive, Harvey (Dennis Quaid), who tells her “renewal is inevitable”.

There is no future for ageing women.

In her redundancy, Elisabeth has an accident. At the hospital, she is passed a note from a handsome young doctor for a black-market drug known as “the substance” that promises to generate a younger version of a person with a single injection. Desperate for youthful relevance, Elisabeth takes the substance and gives birth to a stronger version of herself, Sue (Margaret Qualley).

There are strict rules for taking “the substance”. One rule is that Elisabeth and Sue must share time, taking it in turns to live in the world every seven days. While one lives, the other sleeps so their cells may regenerate.

Another rule is they must remember they “are one”, despite being two separate bodies who can never spend time together.

Elisabeth does not re-experience youth through Sue – even though they share the same DNA and are, according to the rules, “one”.

This is where things start to go horribly wrong for Elisabeth/Sue.

Taking aim at the male gaze

The Substance is a satirical body-horror and science fiction film underpinned by feminist critique. The film examines the obsession with female beauty and youth, the invisibility of ageing women, and the voracious consumption of women’s bodies in Hollywood’s star system.

In interviews, director Coralie Fargeat takes aim at both the beauty myth – the belief that a woman’s value is tied to her appearance – and the male gaze – a way of visualising the female body as an object to be looked at for and by men.

Many of the scenes in the film reflect this critique using hammed-up, hyper-sexualised slow pans across female body parts: wet lips, pert breasts, toned butts. Such scenes mimic the male gaze familiar in popular culture, from Hollywood films to twerking arses in music videos.

Yet Fargeat moves beyond mimicry. Throughout the film, she uses mirrors, photographs, cameras and television to draw our attention to the male gaze and to show the trouble – and horror – that ensues when appearances and reality do not align.

The film depicts injecting, vomiting, bleeding, eating, self-harm and violent and grotesque transformations of the body to create psychological tension and disgust.

The uncanny culture of the copy

The Substance has an acute awareness of the motif of the double, through archetypes and psychoanalytic concepts such as the split psyche, mirroring and the evil twin.

In the opening scene, an egg yolk is injected with a syringe and split into two. This doubling recurs quite literally when Elisabeth takes the substance and “gives birth” to the so-called “better version of herself”.

Sigmund Freud’s unheimlich, or the uncanny, haunts the premise of the film.

The uncanny refers to the unsettling feeling that arises when something familiar becomes eerily unfamiliar, often revealing repressed fears or hidden aspects of the self.

Elisabeth, seeing a billboard image of Sue, has a complex response. It exacerbates her self-loathing and envy. Sue triggers Elisabeth’s deepest fears.

As Sue gains increasing fame, Elisabeth’s invisibility and irrelevance only increases – undermining the whole point of taking “the substance”.

Neither woman can reckon with the uncanny spectre of the other in photographs and television footage.

Mother–daughter nexus

For Sue, seeing photographs of Elisabeth triggers disgust — so much so that the mural-sized photograph of Elisabeth in the apartment they share gets hidden, like Oscar Wilde’s The Picture of Dorian Gray.

We see further feminist archetypes such as the “old hag” and the “unruly daughter”. The mother–daughter nexus is prevalent. The dynamic of love and conflict, attraction and disgust cannot be underplayed.

Sue is both Elisabeth’s salvation and her doom. Sue represents the younger self to which Elisabeth can never return. Sue also threatens to erase Elisabeth’s life by repeatedly breaking the seven-day rule. This has devastating effects on Elisabeth’s sleeping body, which instantly ages.

Over time, this inflicts the worst kinds of physical horrors on Elisabeth’s body.

The more Elisabeth becomes consumed by Sue’s perfection, the more grotesque her own body becomes, until, in the end, she is a sci-fi mash-up of The Lord of the Rings’ Golem, Star Wars’ Palpatine, and David Lynch’s Elephant Man.

The film pulls from these iconic figures of deformity and monstrosity to underscore how society views ageing women’s bodies: the derision of menopause, the so-called “change” not as a natural part of life, but as something to be feared and reviled.

The scenes of Elisabeth gorging and cooking over a cauldron with wiry grey hair, and fisting a raw chicken carcass accompany scenes of the body’s mutilation.

The film also questions how we consume the female body and how women are conditioned to mutilate themselves for youth and beauty. The false economy of appearances reminds us that beneath the make-up, injectables, botox and fillers, there is always going to be an imperfect body in a process of natural decay.

The Substance offers no redemption for Elisabeth. Her pursuit of a younger, more beautiful self is the horror. Her final realisation is that the more she tries to escape her body, the more she is trapped by it.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. There is no future for ageing women: how The Substance uses body-horror in a feminist critique – https://theconversation.com/there-is-no-future-for-ageing-women-how-the-substance-uses-body-horror-in-a-feminist-critique-239729

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Allen Cheng, Professor of Infectious Diseases, Monash University

Before the COVID pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) had made a list of priority infectious diseases. These were felt to pose a threat to international public health, but where research was still needed to improve their surveillance and diagnosis. In 2018, “disease X” was included, which signified that a pathogen previously not on our radar could cause a pandemic.

While it’s one thing to acknowledge the limits to our knowledge of the microbial soup we live in, more recent attention has focused on how we might systematically approach future pandemic risks.

Former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously talked about “known knowns” (things we know we know), “known unknowns” (things we know we don’t know), and “unknown unknowns” (the things we don’t know we don’t know).

Although this may have been controversial in its original context of weapons of mass destruction, it provides a way to think about how we might approach future pandemic threats.

Influenza: a ‘known known’

Influenza is largely a known entity; we essentially have a minor pandemic every winter with small changes in the virus each year. But more major changes can also occur, resulting in spread through populations with little pre-existing immunity. We saw this most recently in 2009 with the swine flu pandemic.

However, there’s a lot we don’t understand about what drives influenza mutations, how these interact with population-level immunity, and how best to make predictions about transmission, severity and impact each year.

The current H5N1 subtype of avian influenza (“bird flu”) has spread widely around the world. It has led to the deaths of many millions of birds and spread to several mammalian species including cows in the United States and marine mammals in South America.

Human cases have been reported in people who have had close contact with infected animals, but fortunately there’s currently no sustained spread between people.

While detecting influenza in animals is a huge task in a large country such as Australia, there are systems in place to detect and respond to bird flu in wildlife and production animals.

It’s inevitable there will be more influenza pandemics in the future. But it isn’t always the one we are worried about.

Attention had been focused on avian influenza since 1997, when an outbreak in birds in Hong Kong caused severe disease in humans. But the subsequent pandemic in 2009 originated in pigs in central Mexico.

Coronaviruses: an ‘unknown known’

Although Rumsfeld didn’t talk about “unknown knowns”, coronaviruses would be appropriate for this category. We knew more about coronaviruses than most people might have thought before the COVID pandemic.

We’d had experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS) causing large outbreaks. Both are caused by viruses closely related to SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID. While these might have faded from public consciousness before COVID, coronaviruses were listed in the 2015 WHO list of diseases with pandemic potential.

Previous research into the earlier coronaviruses proved vital in allowing COVID vaccines to be developed rapidly. For example, the Oxford group’s initial work on a MERS vaccine was key to the development of AstraZeneca’s COVID vaccine.

Similarly, previous research into the structure of the spike protein – a protein on the surface of coronaviruses that allows it to attach to our cells – was helpful in developing mRNA vaccines for COVID.

It would seem likely there will be further coronavirus pandemics in the future. And even if they don’t occur at the scale of COVID, the impacts can be significant. For example, when MERS spread to South Korea in 2015, it only caused 186 cases over two months, but the cost of controlling it was estimated at US$8 billion (A$11.6 billion).

The 25 viral families: an approach to ‘known unknowns’

Attention has now turned to the known unknowns. There are about 120 viruses from 25 families that are known to cause human disease. Members of each viral family share common properties and our immune systems respond to them in similar ways.

An example is the flavivirus family, of which the best-known members are yellow fever virus and dengue fever virus. This family also includes several other important viruses, such as Zika virus (which can cause birth defects when pregnant women are infected) and West Nile virus (which causes encephalitis, or inflammation of the brain).

The WHO’s blueprint for epidemics aims to consider threats from different classes of viruses and bacteria. It looks at individual pathogens as examples from each category to expand our understanding systematically.

The US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has taken this a step further, preparing vaccines and therapies for a list of prototype pathogens from key virus families. The goal is to be able to adapt this knowledge to new vaccines and treatments if a pandemic were to arise from a closely related virus.

Pathogen X, the ‘unknown unknown’

There are also the unknown unknowns, or “disease X” – an unknown pathogen with the potential to trigger a severe global epidemic. To prepare for this, we need to adopt new forms of surveillance specifically looking at where new pathogens could emerge.

In recent years, there’s been an increasing recognition that we need to take a broader view of health beyond only thinking about human health, but also animals and the environment. This concept is known as “One Health” and considers issues such as climate change, intensive agricultural practices, trade in exotic animals, increased human encroachment into wildlife habitats, changing international travel, and urbanisation.

This has implications not only for where to look for new infectious diseases, but also how we can reduce the risk of “spillover” from animals to humans. This might include targeted testing of animals and people who work closely with animals. Currently, testing is mainly directed towards known viruses, but new technologies can look for as yet unknown viruses in patients with symptoms consistent with new infections.

We live in a vast world of potential microbiological threats. While influenza and coronaviruses have a track record of causing past pandemics, a longer list of new pathogens could still cause outbreaks with significant consequences.

Continued surveillance for new pathogens, improving our understanding of important virus families, and developing policies to reduce the risk of spillover will all be important for reducing the risk of future pandemics.

This article is part of a series on the next pandemic.

Allen Cheng receives funding from the Australian government for respiratory virus surveillance, and from the National Health and Medical Research Council. He is a member of the Communicable Diseases Network of Australia and the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation. He is an investigator on the REMAP-CAP trial.

– ref. What pathogen might spark the next pandemic? How scientists are preparing for ‘disease X’ – https://theconversation.com/what-pathogen-might-spark-the-next-pandemic-how-scientists-are-preparing-for-disease-x-223193

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Legge, Professor of Wildlife Conservation, Australian National University

As animals move across the desert, they leave tracks, diggings and droppings. For skilled trackers, reading these signs is like watching a movie. A story of who was there and what they were doing unfolds in front of them.

In this way, many Indigenous Australians know where the goannas (jalangardi in Yawuru) are fat and abundant, when bilby (jitartu in Karajarri) burrows are occupied, and whether the bush turkeys (parrkara in Karajarri) have arrived to take advantage of a freshly burnt patch.

For many years, scientists have been working with Indigenous people in the desert to record these observations in a systematic way. Taking a standard approach enables comparisons between data from different people, times and places, so trends can be detected.

Our new research collates almost 49,000 animal detections during 15,000 surveys at more than 5,300 sites, since 1982. This unique data set reveals new information about desert species. Monitoring animal numbers, locations and responses to environmental change is vital for guiding efforts to support their survival.

Monitoring desert wildlife is a skill

It’s not always easy to see animals in the desert. Most are nocturnal, secretive, and spend much of their time underground. Numbers can fluctuate widely, dwindling during droughts and booming after rain.

This means we need to collect a lot of data — over a long time and over a vast area — to tell what is going on.

Fortunately, Indigenous Australians continue to inhabit and look after desert landscapes using deep knowledge of their Country and exceptional observational skills. Our deserts contain one of the largest networks of Indigenous-managed land in the world.

The Arid Zone Monitoring Project
combines Traditional ecological knowledge and tracking skills with scientific analysis. Indigenous rangers and Traditional Owners from 33 different Indigenous desert groups are involved, along with government agencies, non-government organisations and independent scientists. It’s one of Australia’s largest wildlife monitoring endeavours, spanning nearly half of the country.

Fresh insights

The standard approach is to search a 2-hectare area for signs of animals with at least two people for 20 minutes.

One of us, Braedan Taylor, has performed many dozens of these sign-based surveys. He says: “Within these areas we look for scats (poo), burrows, tracks and record everything that we find.”

The observations are recorded on various apps or paper record sheets.

The method has been widely embraced by Indigenous ranger teams. But, until now, the data has generally stayed within those teams.

By bringing all of the data together for analysis, our research has revealed fresh insights into desert wildlife. We now know more about where species occur and their preferred habitats. We found some species in places where they were not thought to exist before.

For example, it turns out the range of the great desert skink (tjakura in Wiluna Martu Wangka) extends further southwest in Martu Country than previously thought. This chunky, group-living reptile is culturally important to Indigenous people. While local people knew of its presence, sharing that knowledge helps conserve this threatened species.

In the northwestern deserts, Yawuru Country managers and Karajarri rangers recorded many observations of spectacled-hare wallabies (manggaban in Yawuru). This species had not been detected in the region for more than a decade. One of us, Pius Gregory, worked with his countrymen, using careful observation of scats (poo) to distinguish this species from two other wallaby species of similar size (northern nailtail wallabies, agile wallabies; garrabulu, barrjaniny).

Analysing the data has also improved our knowledge of where pest species occur and how they may be affecting native wildlife. For example, we found bilbies have been lost from 70% of their former range, contracting to the northwest deserts where fox density is lowest. Feral cat numbers are also higher here, perhaps also due to fewer foxes.

Some species leave more tell-tale signs

Better monitoring can help ranger teams evaluate their programs to control fires and feral animals.

The data can also help determine the conservation status of threatened species, and whether it’s improving or declining.

Species detection rates, locations and habitat preferences can also inform future monitoring programs. This includes guiding where and how often to survey, to detect population changes for various species.

Overall, we found sign-based surveys are great for monitoring 28 species of mammals, reptiles and birds – including threatened, invasive and culturally significant species. This includes game species that are important to desert people such as kangaroo (mirtimarlu in Karajarri), emu (bijarda in Yawuru) and bush turkey (bustard, barrgara in Yawuru).

We found a national monitoring program for these 28 species would only require visiting 600 strategically located sites twice every five years. Each team involved in the monitoring would need to survey only 10–20 sites a year.

We identified a further 48 species in the records, but found sign-based surveys may not be the best way to monitor them. This is either because detections are too few, or their sign is hard to identify.

For some of those species, extra training by expert trackers may make a difference. For example, the tracks of red kangaroo, euro and grey kangaroo are hard to distinguish for inexperienced trackers, as are perentie, yellow-spotted and sand goanna tracks.

Potential for the future

The Arid Zone Monitoring Project was a proof of concept that showed how much monitoring is already being done by rangers. It also shows the potential for a desert-wide monitoring program, in which Indigenous-led data collection is paired with logistic, analytical and funding support.

Such a program could provide information on biodiversity trends over 40% of the country. This would help inform invasive animal control programs, as well as Indigenous-led recovery strategies for threatened species and culturally significant species.

Sign-based monitoring gives elders and senior rangers an opportunity to share information and skills. This extends beyond tracking, to language, stories, and all aspects of cultural and ecological knowledge. Pius and Braedan can’t overstate how important this is – sign-based surveys are a great way to get out on Country and learn.

The wellbeing of Indigenous Australians is inseparable from the wellbeing of Country: (“healthy Country, healthy people”). Effective monitoring, with strong Indigenous engagement, is a essential for looking after the plants, animals and people of Australia’s desert Country.

We sincerely acknowledge the many people who contributed to this research.

Sarah Legge received funding from the National Environmental Program’s Threatened Species Recovery Hub for the project described here. In related work, she receives funding from the Australian Research Council, and from the Australian Government’s Innovative Biodiversity Monitoring for biodiverisity monitoring with Indigenous organisations. She is a member of the Biodiversity Council.

Braedan Taylor worked for the Karajarri Rangers, Karajarri Traditional Lands Association during this project. He’s now studying Marine Science at the University of Western Australia.

Jaana Dielenberg was a collaborator on the Arid Zone Monitoring project, which was funded by the now-ended Threatened Species Recovery Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program. She is a Charles Darwin University Fellow and is employed by the University of Melbourne and the Biodiversity Council.

Pius Gregory is a Yawuru Traditional Owner. He worked previously for Nyamba Buru Yawuru as a Country Manager, looking after desert and sea country. He is now employed by WWF as the Biocultural Conservation Specialist based in Broome.

Rachel Paltridge was employed by various Indigenous organisations to assist rangers collect track plot data during the period 2000-2020. She now works as an ecologist with the Indigenous Desert Alliance, with support from the Resilient Landscapes Hub of the National Environmental Science Program and also receives funding from the Australian Government’s Saving Native Species program. She is an adjunct Senior Research Fellow with the University of Western Australia.

– ref. Reading desert sands – Indigenous wildlife tracking skills underpin vast monitoring project – https://theconversation.com/reading-desert-sands-indigenous-wildlife-tracking-skills-underpin-vast-monitoring-project-238978

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vitomir Kovanovic, Associate Professor and Associate Director of the Centre for Change and Complexity in Learning (C3L), Education Futures, University of South Australia

It’s almost two years since ChatGPT burst onto the scene in late 2022. Since then, educators worldwide have been grappling with what generative artificial intelligence might mean for classrooms and learning.

ChatGPT has been met with both anxiety and a sense of optimism. While there has been a lot of discussion about what is happening in universities, there has been less attention given to schools.

We have been looking at trials of AI in schools in South Australia. Here’s what we found.

What has happened so far in Australia?

Most Australian states initially banned ChatGPT and other generative AI tools in government schools (many private schools have been using the technology).

In a different approach, the SA government began a trial of AI in schools in 2023 with its own tool, EdChat.

Other jurisdictions have since reconsidered their stance. For example, at the start of 2024, New South Wales began trialling its own AI tool.

In November 2023, the federal government also published a framework for generative AI in schools, which said AI has “great potential” to help teachers and students, and to reduce administrative workloads.

Last month, a federal parliamentary inquiry recommended generative AI in schools should be a “national priority”, finding the benefits of AI outweigh its significant risks and challenges.

What happened in South Australia?

EdChat is a generative AI tool owned by the SA Department for Education, which was designed with Microsoft. It can be used in classrooms and at home. According to the department, it has “extra safety features” to protect students’ privacy and stop them accessing inappropriate content.

In the first phase of the trial, EdChat was used in eight SA government high schools for eight weeks. In the second phase, a further eight schools were included.

We have been evaluating the trial using survey data from about 90 teachers and 700 students. A journal article on this work is currently under review. In this article, we speak about our results from teachers.

‘It reduces time pressure’

Teachers told us they felt safer using EdChat than other tools such as ChatGPT, because student data is not being used to train generative AI models.

However, teachers still wanted to know more about how the student data is stored and who can access EdChat records.

Teachers also reported significant benefits of the tool. They said it helped save time developing lesson plans and learning materials – allowing for more time with students in the classroom.

One teacher told us how the tool had been adopted by the class.

We nicknamed it Eddy as a class and Eddy is now embedded as part of our class culture.

Teachers also used EdChat to provide personalised learning activities to students and “reduce time pressure and brain power required to create [teaching examples] and plan fun activities”. EdChat also allowed students to get personalised feedback or support when teachers were not around.

‘We need to be careful’

Teachers noted issues with hallucinations (when the AI comes up with nonsense) and incorrect information. This means students need to have the skills to recognise this.

As one teacher told us:

I think we need to be careful since students can treat AI like how they treat anything on the internet, without any critical thinking and taking it at face value.

They also said students need to learn to write better prompts and develop their critical thinking skills for working with AI.

They said content filters could also be challenging. While designed to keep students safe, they sometimes interfered with learning, especially for sensitive topics such as history, reproductive health or politics. For example, one history teacher said the “censorship was difficult to get around”.

Teachers also said it was more difficult to work out whether students’ work was plagiarised or not.

What happens now?

The SA government is looking at ways to expand the use of EdChat in schools.

Our research suggests we need to do more work in several areas.

The first is specific education for students around how to use AI critically and effectively.

We also need more research now about how AI is being used in different schools. There are no large-scale studies yet in Australia but there is growing evidence from other parts of the world, such as
Estonia, the United States and United Kingdom, which show AI is significantly changing the way teachers are teaching. This includes spending more time on students’ critical thinking skills and using AI to generate ideas.

We also need to make sure all students can gain access to AI (not just those who can afford the technology) and that the AI itself it not biased against minorities.

Meanwhile, teachers need more support and professional development, and schools need help to plan and make changes. This includes a wider community awareness of the profound effects these new technologies are having and will have on the teaching profession and student learning.

Vitomir Kovanovic receives funding from the Department for Education of South Australia.

Maarten de Laat receives funding from the Department for Education of South Australia.

Rebecca Marrone receives funding from the Department for Education of South Australia

– ref. ‘We nicknamed it Eddy’: what do schools and teachers think of AI in classrooms? – https://theconversation.com/we-nicknamed-it-eddy-what-do-schools-and-teachers-think-of-ai-in-classrooms-239396

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa French, Professor & Dean, School of Media and Communication, RMIT University

P.J. Hogan’s classic Australian film Muriel’s Wedding is 30 and it plays as well today as it did when it had its world premiere. Muriel might have been “terrible” – but the film was a great success.

Australians love to laugh at themselves, and everyone loves an underdog. Muriel’s Wedding took more than A$15 million at the box office in Australia — making it one of the highest-grossing Australian feature films of all time.

As fun as the film is with its kitsch aesthetic, bold colour palette and garish costumes, it has a unique mix of comedy and serious drama. It slips from the absurd to painful realism, with more depth than your average comedy and a twist in the plot that made it an original take on the genre.

While Australians generally have received it as hilarious, audiences elsewhere were more attuned to the tragedy, such as Muriel’s mother Betty’s suicide following relentless bullying, and Rhonda’s illness and disability. But it worked for audiences everywhere who warmed to the representation of friendship, its emotional compassion and critique of the narrow mindedness of small-town communities.

‘We’re all Muriel’

Sometimes it is the stars who can bring in an audience and make a film successful. However, although there were a lot of experienced actors in Muriel’s Wedding, Toni Collette (Muriel) and Rachel Griffiths (Rhonda) – whose performances were exceptional – were both playing lead and supporting roles for the first time in a feature film.

It was also Hogan’s first feature, so it is unlikely star power drew in audiences (although all of them were to become stars, and Hogan later directed My Best Friend’s Wedding with Julia Roberts, one of the top romantic comedies of all time).

It did, however, have a wonderful trailer.

I asked Rachel Griffiths what she thought was the key to the film’s success and she identified its universality: it translated for an array of audiences and enabled broad identification.

She described the film as having one foot in the grotesque and the other in Ridley Scott’s 1991 getaway heist Thelma & Louise – another film about female friendship, independence and individual growth.

Griffiths gave the example of going with the film to New York on its release and discovering it was wildly meaningful to the LGBTQIA+ community. In conversation with a gay man in his late 20s, he described it as a parable for AIDS, which at that time was in full-blown crisis.

According to Griffiths, he said: “We’re all Muriel. We don’t fit in.”

Growing up in small towns where they are “the freak”, with closet musical tastes, he said:

We’re the outcasts in our family. Our fathers belittle us for being feminine. We escape to the big smoke with the promise of becoming ourselves and following our own journey. We replace our families who have rejected us with our chosen family who celebrate us.

And when one of their own is struck suddenly by this terrible affliction, like Rhonda, they are sent home in humiliation, to be looked after, which is their worst fear. The aspiration is to be rescued by the adopted family and taken back to the big city and shown unconditional love.

Griffiths says:

That’s the ending and the survival story of both Rhonda and Muriel, you go back to that kind of pride moment, to be proud of who you are.

For Griffiths, Rhonda and Muriel have “a kind of blood-sister friendship, a bond that can’t be broken”.

We all long for that deep acceptance. It is a parable of inclusion, where Muriel and Rhonda truly see and accept each other and themselves.

A feminist film

I asked Griffiths if Muriel’s Wedding was received as feminist when it was released. She replied it wasn’t at the time it was made, but more recently this has come up.

Her explanation of why this wasn’t considered 30 years ago is informative regarding film criticism. She elaborated that the critics at the time were 90% male and their take on feminism expected powerful female lead characters who pursue their goals and achieve in the face of competition.

In this story, there is a girl escaping patriarchal control. Muriel’s father, Bill Heslop (Bill Hunter), is a bully and narcissist who blames everyone else – especially the women – for his failures.

Griffiths aligns Muriel to the Cinderella myth because in the beginning she sees her value will only be ascribed to her once she marries. The film, Griffiths said, is “a fundamental kind of feminist journey”.

The central focus is Muriel’s personal growth in rejecting ideology that promotes romantic coupling as the pinnacle of happiness for women. Instead Muriel embraces her own worth and her friendship with Rhonda. Marriage is portrayed as a patriarchal structure that ideologically binds women – the marriages are variously fraudulent, starting with Tanya and Chook, then Muriel and, ultimately, her mother.

There are many elements that make Muriel’s Wedding an Australian classic, from the universal themes and relatability to how the story is able to extend beyond national borders. The film leaves us with admiration for resilience in the face of adversity, signalled by Muriel and Rhonda grinning assuredly at each other in the final scene.

It is a unique and very real comedy/drama with a highly engaging aesthetic and a feminist message. It is an opportunity to laugh at ourselves, despite quite a lot of tragedy and adversity — which is a very Australian thing to do!

The author wishes to thank Rachel Griffiths who was interviewed in Melbourne on August 17 2020.

Lisa French does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘We’re all Muriel’: why we still love Muriel’s Wedding, 30 years on – https://theconversation.com/were-all-muriel-why-we-still-love-muriels-wedding-30-years-on-236793

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendon Hyndman, Associate Professor of Health & Physical Education (Adj.), Charles Sturt University

The Brisbane Lions are the underdogs for Saturday’s AFL grand final against Sydney.

After defeating Geelong in Victoria for the first time in 20 years, they have reached the grand final from fifth on the ladder, without a rest week or double-chance (as teams that finish in the top four enjoy).

Taking into account the VFL origins of both clubs, this will be the first Lions–Swans grand final for 125 years.

The Lions’ task against the Swans, who finished as minor premiers, is formidable but not impossible.

As history shows, upsets happen. But what have been the greatest shocks in men’s VFL/AFL grand final history?

Sports betting odds are one way to determine an upset, but that is a fairly modern phenomenon, so we delved beyond odds.

Other considerations include comparing the respective ladder positions of the opposing teams, the length of time since a team’s previous premiership, the age and experience of the playing group, or even the team’s record at the venue or against the other team.

We have given greatest weighting to ladder position going into the finals, which we believe is the fairest indicator of the magnitude of an upset, because it signifies a team’s performance and consistency during that season.

Below is our verdict on the biggest grand final upsets of all time, with reference to these various criteria.

Experience of playing group

#10 – 1993 Essendon defeated Carlton

The 1993 “Baby Bombers” premiership was a big surprise after they finished eighth in 1992 (the top five teams made finals).

They were 11th (out of 15 teams) after round seven in 1993 and had to come from 42 points down at half-time in the preliminary final.

The average age of the “Baby Bombers” was just 24 years and 105 days when they defeated Carlton. In comparison, the average age of Carlton’s playing group was 25.4 years.

The average age of premiership teams from the past 20 years has been 26.2 years.

What made this win even more remarkable was Essendon had six players with fewer than 25 AFL games. The average for premiership teams over the past two decades has been 126.7 games.

Track record between clubs or seasons

#9 – 2017 Richmond defeated Adelaide

Richmond completed the greatest one-year turnaround in VFL/AFL history when they won the 2017 decider.

The Tigers rose from 13th on the ladder in 2016 to secure their first premiership in 37 years in 2017.

Richmond upset Adelaide, who finished top of the ladder and were favourites to win the grand final. The Crows had also beaten Richmond by 76 points when they met earlier in 2017.

The relentless pressure of Richmond’s “mosquito fleet” (players shorter than 183cm) was a key to victory on grand final day.

#8 – 1972 Carlton defeated Richmond

Carlton had not beaten Richmond in a final since 1920 and their recent record was ten straight losses to Richmond.

The Blues had also lost all four games against the Tigers that year.

They surprised the highly favoured Richmond team with a “strategic triumph” that involved playing numerous players in different positions.

This was the highest-scoring grand final of all time, with 327 combined points. Carlton kicked 28 goals in their win.

#7 – 1970 Carlton defeated Collingwood

Collingwood was favourite for the grand final, as the Magpies finished top of the ladder and defeated Carlton three times in the 1970 season, including by 77 points in round 19.

This match was also recognised as the greatest grand final comeback in AFL/VFL history, and featured one of the greatest marks of the 20th century. It also had the biggest ever VFL/AFL crowd of 121,696 spectators.

After trailing by 44 points at half-time, Ron Barrassi’s instructions to play on and handball in the second half were credited for helping Carlton’s upset win.

#6 – 2008 Hawthorn defeated Geelong

Geelong won the 2007 premiership by 119 points and would eventually win the 2009 premiership.

Meeting the team with the youngest recorded average playing age in the competition was all that stood in the way for the highly favoured Cats in the 2008 grand final.

Geelong had finished four games clear on top of the ladder in 2008, only losing once all season.

Yet a combination of Geelong’s poor kicking for goal, Hawthorn’s hard running and clever coaching led to an unexpected victory for the team described as “resembling the baby bombers”.

#5 – 1958 Collingwood defeated Melbourne

Between 1955 and 1960, Melbourne blitzed the competition, winning five of the six premierships on offer, two of them over Collingwood.

In the middle of this Melbourne dominance, and having lost to the Demons in their semi-final, Collingwood achieved “the miracle of ‘58”.

Collingwood’s victory stopped Melbourne winning six premierships in a row. It would be the Magpies’ last flag for 32 years, and has been described as their “best ever”.

Ladder positioning

#4 – 1998 Adelaide defeated North Melbourne

Between 1902 and 1971, the VFL had a top four finals system, which expanded to include at least the top five teams from 1972, and evolved to become a top eight from 1994.

Described as imposters and up against the future 1999 premiers, Adelaide became the first team from outside the top four to win the premiership since 1900.

They did so despite facing a deficit of 24 points at half-time.

During the grand final, North Melbourne set the record for the most inaccurate kicking for goal in VFL/AFL grand final history, with eight goals and 22 behinds.

#3 – 1900 Melbourne defeated Fitzroy

During 1900, the regular season positions did not count when finals arrived, meaning all teams qualified to play finals.

Fitzroy was the dominant force in the league and were two games clear on top of the ladder with 11 wins and just three losses.

They were described by most spectators as being a “certainty” to secure their third consecutive premiership.

Yet Melbourne, which finished sixth (out of eight teams) during the regular season with five fewer victories, went on to win all of their finals games and toppled Fitzroy in the grand final.

It was such a surprise that an overhaul of the VFL finals system was made within just two seasons to limit the finals to the top four teams.

#2 – 1916 Fitzroy defeated Carlton

The impacts of war resulted in just four teams playing in 1916.

During the regular season, Fitzroy lost nine in a row and ended up with the wooden spoon.

Despite finishing last on the reduced ladder, Fitzroy won every finals match and overcame ladder leaders Carlton to take the 1916 premiership.

The upset was even more extraordinary considering Fitzroy was without league-leading goalkicker Jimmy Freake and forward Jim Toohey. Both had combined for almost half of Fitzroy’s goals over the preceeding four seasons.

Fitzroy defeated Carlton twice in the finals, having lost three consecutive in-season games to them and overcoming a half-time grand final deficit.

#1 – 2016 Western Bulldogs defeated Sydney

Ending a 62-year premiership drought, the Bulldogs came from seventh on the ladder to claim their first flag since 1954.

The Bulldogs’ journey to the grand final was nothing short of challenging.

After commencing their finals campaign with one of the longest trips in football to take on West Coast in Perth, they then downed the reigning premiers Hawthorn at the MCG, preventing a fourth consecutive premiership for the Hawks.

The next stage of the journey involved travelling to Sydney for an epic preliminary final clash against Greater Western Sydney, resulting in the Bulldogs holding on in a nailbiting finish.

In the grand final, the Bulldogs came up against the top-of-the-table Sydney Swans, who had won eight of their final nine matches of the season. After trailing at half-time, the Bulldogs surged in the second half to victory.

Given the AFL expansions, professional transformation of the modern competition and the journey of finals battles across Australia for the 2016 Western Bulldogs, this ranks as the greatest achievement in the history of grand final upsets.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What are the 10 greatest upsets in VFL/AFL grand final history? – https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-10-greatest-upsets-in-vfl-afl-grand-final-history-238976

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ross Lawrenson, Professor of Population Health, University of Waikato

Surviving lung cancer in Aotearoa New Zealand could depend on whether you can access a GP – raising questions about equity in the country’s health system.

Our new research examines the outcomes for patients who are diagnosed with lung cancer through their GP versus those who are diagnosed at the emergency department (ED).

Examining 2,400 lung cancer diagnoses in Waikato between 2011 and 2021, we found those who are diagnosed with lung cancer after ED visits tended to have later-stage disease and poorer outcomes compared to those diagnosed after a GP referral.

We also found diagnosis after ED attendance was 27% higher for Māori than non-Māori and 22% higher for men than women.

These results raise important questions about health inequity in New Zealand and highlight the need to ensure everyone is able to access an early cancer diagnosis.

Limited access to everyday health care

Currently half of all general practices have closed their books to new patients, leaving 290,000 patients unenrolled and reliant on emergency departments for their health care.

Some 80% of practices have closed their books to new patients at some point since 2019.

For those who are enrolled in a practice, the wait times for appointments are often such that the only option is to go to the ED for help.

This is especially true in rural areas where the hospital can become the default route to diagnosis.

Lung cancer is New Zealand’s single biggest cause of cancer deaths, with over 1,800 per year. Some 80% of those who are diagnosed with lung cancer present with advanced disease and very poor prospects of survival.

It’s also the cancer with the largest equity gap. The mortality rate for Māori with lung cancer is three to four times that of people of European descent.

While much of this disparity is due to differences in the rates of smoking among ethnic groups, there is also evidence delays in diagnosis and poorer access to surgery are also major influences on survival rates.

Identifying lung cancer

Lung cancer usually starts in the tissue lining the airways and symptoms can initially be relatively minor – some shortness of breath during exercise, a niggly cough or sharp pains while breathing.

Patients with these sorts of symptoms usually go to a GP to check whether this is something that needs further investigation.

But if someone cannot get an appointment, or does not recognise the symptoms as serious, then they are likely to delay taking action.

Advanced symptoms of lung cancer include coughing up blood or having lumps in the neck due to lymphatic spread of the cancer. People with these alarming symptoms tend to go to the hospital for treatment.

Our study confirms earlier findings that those diagnosed through the emergency department are:

• more likely to have advanced disease
• more likely to have a more aggressive type of cancer (called small cell cancer), and
• have substantially poorer likelihoods of survival.

The median survival for those who never went to the ED was 13.6 months, while the median survival for those with one ED visit was just three months.

That said, attending an emergency department has some advantages. These include being seen by a doctor within a few hours, immediate access to x-rays and, in our major hospitals, access to the definitive diagnostic tool for a lung cancer – a computed tomography (CT) machine.

Our study found 25% of cases went to the ED two or more times in the two weeks before their diagnosis. This was especially true for those going to one of the Waikato rural hospitals, where a second or third visit was more likely before being diagnosed.

Barriers to care

It is clear New Zealand still has several barriers to primary care. This has lead to an over-reliance on emergency departments for diagnosing cancer, despite the long-running faster cancer treatment targets.

The situation is unlikely to improve. Access to GPs is getting worse, in part due to increasing fees.

Māori and Pacific patients with lung cancer were less likely than other ethnic groups to have been enrolled with a primary health organisation when they were diagnosed. They were also less likely to have visited a GP in the three months prior to diagnosis.

Making it easier to see a GP

Making general practice care more accessible is the most effective way of addressing the inequities in our lung cancer statistics.

Currently, New Zealand has only 74 GPs per 100,000 people, compared to 110 in Australia.

It is clear we need to substantially increase the number of GPs. This is a long-term project but needs to be a strategic goal for the health sector.

In the meantime, we need to make primary care more accessible by increasing patient subsidies and reducing the direct patient costs to see a doctor. At the same time, we need to better equip GPs with access to diagnostic facilities, including in our rural hospitals.

Ross Lawrenson receives funding from NZ Health Research Council. He is an Honorary Fellow of the Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners.

Chunhuan Lao receives funding from NZ Health Research Council.

– ref. Access to a GP can make all the difference in surviving lung cancer – and that is a problem for Māori – https://theconversation.com/access-to-a-gp-can-make-all-the-difference-in-surviving-lung-cancer-and-that-is-a-problem-for-maori-239808

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Last month, a delegation led by Brendan Crabb, head of the Burnet Institute, a prestigious medical research body, met Anthony Albanese in the prime minister’s parliament house office.

Its members, who included Lidia Morawska from Queensland University of Technology, a world-leading expert on air quality and health, also blitzed ministers and staffers. They were pitching for the federal government to spearhead a comprehensive policy on clean indoor air and for the issue to be put on the national cabinet’s agenda.

They pointed out to Albanese that indoor air is an outlier in our otherwise comprehensive public health framework. Despite people spending the majority of their time inside, indoor air quality is mostly unregulated, in contrast to the standards that apply to, for example, food and water.

There are multiple health and economic reasons to be concerned about this air quality but a major one is to limit the transmission of airborne diseases, such as COVID.

For many of us, COVID has become just a bad memory, despite its lasting and mixed legacies. For instance, without the pandemic, fewer people would now be working from home. More small businesses would be flourishing in our CBDs. Arguably, fewer children would be trying to catch up from inadequate schooling.

While the media have largely lost interest in COVID, and people are now rather blase about it, the disease is still taking a toll.

In 2023 there were about 4,600 deaths attributed to COVID, and almost certainly more in reality, given Australia that year had 8,400 “excess deaths” (defined as actual deaths above expected deaths).

Up to July this year there were 2,503 COVID deaths.

In nursing homes, whilst survival rates from COVID are much improved with vaccination and antivirals, as of September 19, there were 117 active outbreaks with 59 new outbreaks in that past week. There had been 900 deaths for the year so far.

Long COVID has become a serious issue, with varying respiratory, cardiac, cognitive and immunological symptoms. It is estimated between 200,000 and 900,000 people in Australia currently have long COVID.

The Albanese government is presently awaiting the report it commissioned into how the COVID pandemic was handled.

The inquiry has looked at the performance of the Morrison government, but its terms of reference didn’t include the states. That limits its usefulness, but there were politics involved, given high profile state Labor governments.

Not that the state and territory leaders of that time are around anymore (apart from the ACT’s Andrew Barr). Those faces that became so familiar from their daily news conference have disappeared into the never-never: Victoria’s Dan Andrews, Western Australia’s Mark McGowan, New South Wales’ Gladys Berejiklian, Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk.

COVID variously made or tarnished leaders’ reputations. McGowan, in particular, reached stratospheric heights of popularity. Andrews deeply divided people.

In general, however, COVID boosted support for leaders and increased public trust in them and in government. In times of uncertainty, the public looked to known institutions and to authority figures. Since then, trust has eroded again.

Experts came into their own during the pandemic but then found themselves in the middle of the political bickering. In retrospect, some of them were wrong.

In the broad, especially in terms of the death rate and the economy, Australia navigated the crisis well. But drill down, and the story is more complex, as documented by two leading economists, Steven Hamilton (based in Washington and connected to the Australian National University) and Richard Holden (from UNSW).

In their just-published book, Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism, their bottom-line conclusion is that Australia was very impressive in its (vastly expensive) economic response but it was a mixed picture on the health side.

While Australia was quick out of the blocks in closing the national border and bringing in other measures, it fell down dramatically on two fronts. The Morrison government failed to order a wide variety of vaccines and it failed to buy enough Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs).

The “vaccine procurement strategy was an unmitigated disaster,” Hamilton and Holden write. This was not just “the greatest failure of the pandemic – it was arguably the greatest single public policy failure in Australian history”.

“We put all our vaccine eggs in just two baskets”, both of which failed to differing degrees. This was “a terrible risk to take. Pandemics are times for insurance, not gambling,” they write.

“And while our tax and statistical authorities marshalled their forces to operate much faster and more nimbly to serve the desperate needs of a government facing a once-in-a-century crisis, our medical regulatory complex repeatedly ignored international evidence and experience, and our political leaders capitulated to their advice. And then the prime minister told us that when it came to getting Australians vaccinated:‘it’s not a race’”.

The failure to order every vaccine on the horizon meant when production or supply problems arose for those that were hoped for or on order, the rollout was delayed.

After this bungle, “stunningly, we turned around and repeated these same mistakes all over again” by not obtaining and distributing freely massive numbers of RATs. In this failure, “our federal government showed the same lack of foresight, the same penny-wise but pound-foolish mindset that it had displayed in the vaccine rollout”.

The authors blame Scott Morrison, then-health minister Greg Hunt, then-chief medical officer Brendan Murphy, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), and the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) for the health failures, which prolonged the lockdowns, cost lives and delayed reopening.

Urging better preparation for the next pandemic, Hamilton and Holden have a list of suggestions. They stress we need to ensure we have mRNA vaccine manufacturing capability (on which there is fairly good progress). We must get vaccine procurement “right from the start” regardless of cost. Huge quantities of RATs should be procured as soon as they become available, ready to be used immediately.

A complete overhaul of the medical-regulatory complex should be undertaken. As well, Australia should continue to invest in “economic infrastructure”. In the pandemic, the economic effort was facilitated by having a single touch payroll system. “The first obvious candidate for improvement is a real-time GST turnover reporting capability.”

Perhaps a comprehensive indoor clean air policy could be added to the infrastructure list.

The government’s review will have its own recommendations. Crabb and his colleagues hope they include attention to indoor air quality, following advice from the Chief Scientist and the National Science and Technology Council.

Members of the delegation say they received an attentive hearing from the PM.

Anna-Maria Arabia, chief executive of the Australian Academy of Science, and a member of the delegation, says Albanese “understood that improving indoor air quality is a cornerstone requirement to preparing for future pandemics and [he] was attuned to the practical implications of having good indoor air quality systems, including schools and workplaces being able to stay open and functional, reduce absenteeism and boost productivity”.

What’s needed beyond awareness, however, is timely policy action. Pandemics don’t give much notice of their arrival.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: Experts want Albanese to lead on indoor air quality as part of pandemic planning – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-experts-want-albanese-to-lead-on-indoor-air-quality-as-part-of-pandemic-planning-239829

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hallam Stevens, Professor of Interdisciplinary Studies, James Cook University

By now, many of us are probably familiar with artificial intelligence hype. AI will make artists redundant! AI can do lab experiments! AI will end grief!

Even by these standards, the latest proclamation from OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman, published on his personal website this week, seems remarkably hyperbolic. We are on the verge of “The Intelligence Age”, he declares, powered by a “superintelligence” that may just be a “few thousand days” away. The new era will bring “astounding triumphs”, including “fixing the climate, establishing a space colony, and the discovery of all of physics”.

Altman and his company – which is trying to raise billions from investors and pitching unprecedently huge datacentres to the US government, while shedding key staff and ditching its nonprofit roots to give Altman a share of ownership – have much to gain from hype.

However, even setting aside these motivations, it’s worth taking a look at some of the assumptions behind Altman’s predictions. On closer inspection, they reveal a lot about the worldview of AI’s biggest cheerleaders – and the blind spots in their thinking.

Steam engines for thought?

Altman grounds his marvellous predictions in a two-paragraph history of humanity:

People have become dramatically more capable over time; we can already accomplish things now that our predecessors would have believed impossible.

This is a story of unmitigated progress heading in a single direction, driven by human intelligence. The cumulative discoveries and inventions of science and technology – Altman reveals – have led us to the computer chip and, inexorably, to artificial intelligence which will take us the rest of the way to the future. This view owes much to the futuristic visions of the singularitarian movement.

Such a story is seductively simple. If human intelligence has driven us to ever-greater heights, it is hard not to conclude that better, faster, artificial intelligence will drive progress even farther and higher.

This is an old dream. In the 1820s, when Charles Babbage saw steam engines revolutionising human physical labour in England’s industrial revolution, he began to imagine constructing similar machines for automating mental labour. Babbage’s “analytical engine” was never built, but the notion that humanity’s ultimate achievement would entail mechanising thought itself has persisted.

According to Altman, we’re now (almost) at that mountaintop.

Deep learning worked – but for what?

The reason we are so close to the glorious future is simple, Altman says: “deep learning worked”.

Deep learning is a particular kind of machine learning that involves artificial neural networks, loosely inspired by biological nervous systems. It has certainly been surprisingly successful in a few domains: deep learning is behind models that have proven adept at stringing words together in more or less coherent ways, at generating pretty pictures and videos, and even contributing to the solutions of some scientific problems.

So the contributions of deep learning are not trivial. They are likely to have significant social and economic impacts (both positive and negative).

But deep learning “works” only for a limited set of problems. Altman knows this:

humanity discovered an algorithm that could really, truly learn any distribution of data (or really the underlying “rules” that produce any distribution of data).

That’s what deep learning does – that’s how it “works”. That’s important, and it’s a technique that can be applied to various domains, but it’s far from the only problem that exists.

Not every problem is reducible to pattern matching. Nor do all problems provide the massive amounts of data that deep learning requires to do its work. Nor is this how human intelligence works.

A big hammer looking for nails

What is interesting here is the fact that Altman thinks “rules from data” will go so far towards solving all humanity’s problems.

There is an adage that a person holding a hammer is likely to see everything as a nail. Altman is now holding a big and very expensive hammer.

Deep learning may be “working” but only because Altman and others are starting to reimagine (and build) a world composed of distributions of data. There’s a danger here that AI is starting to limit, rather than expand, the kinds of problem-solving we are doing.

What is barely visible in Altman’s celebration of AI are the expanding resources needed also for deep learning to “work”. We can acknowledge the great gains and remarkable achievements of modern medicine, transportation and communication (to name a few) without pretending these have not come at a significant cost.

They have come at a cost both to some humans – for whom the gains of global north have meant diminishing returns – and to animals, plants and ecosystems, ruthlessly exploited and destroyed by the extractive might of capitalism plus technology.

Although Altman and his booster friends might dismiss such views as nitpicking, the question of costs goes right to the heart of predictions and concerns about the future of AI.

Altman is certainly aware that AI is facing limits, noting “there are still a lot of details we have to figure out”. One of these is the rapidly expanding energy costs of training AI models.

Microsoft recently announced a US$30 billion fund to build AI data centres and generators to power them. The veteran tech giant, which has invested more than US$10 billion in OpenAI, has also signed a deal with owners of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant (infamous for its 1979 meltdown) to supply power for AI. The frantic spending suggests there may be a hint of desperation in the air.

Magic or just magical thinking?

Given the magnitude of such challenges, even if we accept Altman’s rosy view of human progress up to now, we might have to acknowledge that the past may not be a reliable guide to the future. Resources are finite. Limits are reached. Exponential growth can end.

What’s most revealing about Altman’s post is not his rash predictions. Rather, what emerges is his sense of untrammelled optimism in science and progress.

This makes it hard to imagine that Altman or OpenAI takes seriously the “downsides” of technology. With so much to gain, why worry about a few niggling problems? When AI seems so close to triumph, why pause to think?

What is emerging around AI is less an “age of intelligence” and more an “age of inflation” – inflating resource consumption, inflating company valuations and, most of all, inflating the promises of AI.

It’s certainly true that some of us do things now that would have seemed magic a century and a half ago. That doesn’t mean all the changes between then and now have been for the better.

AI has remarkable potential in many domains, but imagining it holds the key to solving all of humanity’s problems – that’s magical thinking too.

Hallam Stevens has previously received funding from the Ministry of Education (Singapore), the National Heritage Board (Singapore), the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Wenner-Gren Foundation.

– ref. In a new manifesto, OpenAI’s Sam Altman envisions an AI utopia – and reveals glaring blind spots – https://theconversation.com/in-a-new-manifesto-openais-sam-altman-envisions-an-ai-utopia-and-reveals-glaring-blind-spots-239841

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Scott, Professor of Health Economics and Director, Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University

A battle between private hospitals and private health insurers is playing out in public.

At its heart is how much health insurers pay hospitals for their services, and whether that’s enough for private hospitals to remain viable.

Concerns over the viability of the private health system have caught the attention of the federal government, which has launched a review into private hospitals that has yet to be made public.

But are private hospitals really in trouble? And if so, is more public funding the answer?

Private hospitals vs private health insurers

Many private hospital operators have reported significant pressures since the start of the COVID pandemic, including staff shortages.

Inflationary pressures have increased the costs of supplies and equipment, pushing up the costs of providing hospital care.

Now, private hospitals have publicised their difficult contract negotiations with private health insurers in an attempt to gain support and help their case.

Healthscope, which runs 38 for-profit private hospitals in Australia, has been threatening to end agreements with private health insurers.

St Vincent’s, which operates ten not-for-profit private hospitals, announced it would end its contract with nib (one of Australia’s largest for-profit health insurers) but then reached an agreement.

UnitingCare Queensland, which operates four private hospitals, announced it would end its contract with the Australian Health Service Alliance, which represents more than 20 small and medium non-profit private health insurers. Since then, the two parties have also kissed and made up.

Why should we care?

There are three reasons why viability of the private health sector affects us all, regardless of whether we have private health insurance or use private hospitals.

1. Taxpayers subsidise the private health system

Australian taxpayers subsidised private health insurance premiums by A$6.3 billion
(in premium rebates) in 2021–22. Much of this makes its way to private hospitals. Medicare also subsidised fees for medical services delivered for private patients in private and public hospitals to the tune of $3.81 billion in 2023–24.

But when the going gets tough, the private health sector (both hospitals and health insurers) turns to the government for more handouts.

So we should be concerned about the value we currently get from our public investment into the private health system, and if more public investment is warranted.

2. Public hospitals may be affected if private hospitals close

Calls for greater government support for private health have long argued that a larger private hospital sector would help reduce pressures on the public system.

Indeed, this was the justification for a series of incentives introduced from the late 1990s to support private health insurance in Australia.

However, the extent of this is hotly debated. Recent evidence shows higher private health insurance coverage leads to only very small falls in waiting times in public hospitals.

While it is possible the closure of a few private hospitals might lead some patients to seek care in public hospitals, this shift might not be that large and will not increase waiting times too much.

3. Fewer private beds, but is that a bad thing?

If unviable private hospitals close or merge, we’d expect to see fewer
private hospital beds overall.

Fewer private hospital beds is not necessarily bad news. Mergers of small private day hospitals, in particular, might make them more efficient and lead to lower costs, which in turn lowers health insurance premiums.

We might also need fewer private beds. This is due to policies that try to shift health care out of hospitals into the community or the use of
hospital-in-the-home schemes (where patients receive hospital-type care at home with the support of visiting health staff and/or telehealth). The private health insurers are supporting both.

If a few small private hospitals close, this reflects the market adjusting to less demand for hospital care. Some of the closures have been for maternity wards but with falling birth rates, this also seems like an appropriate market adjustment.

What do we know?

Any objective data about what is happening in the private hospital sector is scarce. This is mainly because the Australian Bureau of Statistics has stopped a compulsory survey of all private hospitals. The latest data we have is from 2016–17.

Health insurers are the largest payer of private hospitals and hence wield a considerable amount of negotiating power. In 2016–17, almost 80% of private hospitals’ income came from private health insurers. Health insurers have also increasingly become “active” purchasers of health care – not just passively paying insurance claims, but wanting to strike a good deal with private hospitals for their members to keep premiums (and costs) down, and profits high.

Reports of hospitals closing ignore hospitals that are opening at the same time. But since 2016–17 there are no publicly reported data on the total number of private hospitals in Australia or changes over time.

The latest figures we have show about half of all hospitals in Australia are private, and of these 62% are for-profit with the rest run by not-for-profit organisations (such as St Vincent’s).

The main for-profit providers are Ramsay Health Care and Healthscope. Both have operations overseas and were in trouble before the COVID pandemic.

Fast-forward to 2024 and the recent issues with contract negotiations suggests the financial situation of for-profit private hospitals might not have improved. So this could reflect a long-term issue with the sustainability of the private hospital sector.

What are the options?

The private health system already receives large public subsidies. So the crux of the current debate is whether the government should intervene again to prop up the private sector. Here are some options:

• do nothing and let this stoush play out Closure and mergers of private hospitals might be good if smaller hospitals and wards are no longer needed and patients have other alternatives

• introduce more regulation Negotiations between small groups of private hospitals and very large dominant private health insurers may not be efficient. If the insurers have significant market power they can force small groups of private hospitals into submission. Some private hospital groups may be negotiating with many different health insurers at the same time, which can be costly. Regulation of exactly how these negotiations happen could make the process more efficient and create a more level playing field

• change how private hospitals are paid Public hospitals are essentially paid the same national price for each procedure they provide. This provides incentives for efficiency as the price is fixed and so if their costs are below the price, they can make a surplus. Private hospitals could also be funded this way, which could remove much of the costs of contract negotiations with private hospitals. Instead, private hospitals would be free to focus on other issues such as the number and quality of procedures, and providing high-value health care.

What next?

Revisiting the regulation of prices and contract negotiations between private hospitals and private health insurers could potentially help the private hospital sector to be more efficient.

Private health insurers are rightly trying to encourage such efficiencies but the tools they have to do this through contract negotiations are quite blunt.

As we wait for the results of the review into the private hospital sector, value for money for taxpayers is paramount. We are all subsidising the private hospital sector.

Anthony Scott has previously received funding from the Medibank Better Health Foundation.

Terence C. Cheng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment

– ref. Are private hospitals really in trouble? And is more public funding the answer? – https://theconversation.com/are-private-hospitals-really-in-trouble-and-is-more-public-funding-the-answer-238891

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rewi Newnham, Professor in Physical Geography, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

With about 90% of New Zealand’s natural wetlands drained or severely damaged during the past decades, we need to understand the role of native plants in the restoration of these important habitats.

Our new research details the history of raupō (bulrush) from the time before people arrived in Aotearoa. It shows this resilient, opportunistic plant – and taonga species – can play an important role restoring wetlands and freshwater quality.

An unexpected finding was that the decline of freshwater quality in many lakes did not really kick in until the mid-20th century with intensification of agriculture. Until then, lake water quality indicators generally showed these ecosystems remained healthy. The prolific expansion of raupō after Aotearoa was first settled may have helped.

Thriving on material washed from disturbed catchments, raupō acted as an ecological buffer, intercepting nutrients and sediments, and reducing potentially harmful effects on freshwater ecosystems.

From the mid-20th century, as water quality began to deteriorate, raupō populations – and any buffering effects – were generally in decline as wetlands and lake shallows were drained for grazing land and better access to water supply.

Lessons from this plant’s past can be put to good use today as we strive to bring back the mauri (life force) of our freshwater systems.

Survival strategies for hard times

Before settlement, when dense forest covered most of the country, raupō was surviving on the fringes. As a wetland plant, it likes its roots submerged, but needs light to grow.

Its preferred niche is the shallow margins of lakes, ponds and streams or nutrient-rich swamps. Before people, these places were much less common. Forests typically grew right up to the water’s edge and extended across some swamps.

Under these conditions, raupō evolved strategies for survival: aerated roots to cope with water logging; tiny, abundant seeds that spread far and wide on the wind; rhizomes (underground stems) that extend from the mother plant and store carbohydrates to keep the plant alive in lean times.

Raupō can even build floating root mats, from sediment trapped by its rhizomes, that extend out across open water and even detach from the shoreline to become mobile raupō islands.

With these survival strategies, raupō could wait for better times which, in Aotearoa’s dynamic environment, duly arrived.

Episodic agents of disruption – storms, floods, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic ashfall – created opportunities. Local forest damage allowed light to penetrate to ground level, and slips and floods brought nutrient-rich sediment from soils.

Raupō would seize these opportunities to expand. But they were typically short-lived as the inevitable process of forest succession returned the environment to stability – and raupō back to a state of patient hibernation.

Hitting the jackpot

Then people arrived, with fire and hungry mouths to feed. This time, the disturbances persisted. Forest clearances endured, sediments rich in nutrients flooded wetlands and lakes, and raupō, supremely equipped for just this scenario, spread across swamps and lake shores as wildfires spread on land.

Our tūpuna (ancestors) observed this behaviour, as well as what was happening around raupō. Insects and birds were feeding and nesting. Freshwater fish, crays, shellfish and eel spawned among its fertile beds.

This new-found abundance also offered a range of resource opportunities. Raupō’s flax-like leaves were woven into mats, rope and string. Leaves and stems were used like thatch to cloak the roofs and walls of whare.

Traditional poi were often made from raupō leaves. Some iwi, particularly in the south, used the stems to build lightweight boats for navigating rivers and lakes. Flower stalks, shoots and young leaves were eaten, and the rhizomes and roots, when cooked, provided edible carbohydrates. The most cherished raupō kai, however, were cakes baked using the copious raupō pollen.

Unsurprisingly, for many iwi raupō remains a taonga species today, treasured for this array of resources and for its ecological and even spiritual roles in maintaining the mauri of freshwater habitats, upon which so much depends.

For some iwi, raupō are seen as kaitiaki (guardians) watching over a lake or wetland, and signalling its health. In these ways, raupō also connects us with other Indigenous communities. Although raupō is native to this country, the same species is found in Australia and parts of East Asia, while relatives in the genus Typha (Greek for marsh) occur naturally on all continents, except Antarctica.

Similar practices occurred wherever raupō and its relatives are found.
This connection between cultural and ecological roles is one of the fascinating findings from our research. We describe raupō as a “human-associated species”, not just because of its taonga status, but because its fate seems so closely linked to people.

More work needs to be done, but history tells us raupō has an important role in restoring the health of our freshwater ecosystems. Not only can it soak up nutrients and contaminants, but as both a native and taonga species it can assist remediation solutions that are ecologically and culturally supportive and sustainable.

This research was funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment research programmes – Our lakes’ health; past, present, future (C05X1707) and Our lakes, Our future (CAWX2305).

– ref. The common raupō once kept NZ’s wetlands and lakes thriving – now it could help restore them – https://theconversation.com/the-common-raupo-once-kept-nzs-wetlands-and-lakes-thriving-now-it-could-help-restore-them-238887

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Bleich, Professorial fellow, Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies, Flinders University

In countries with compulsory voting, such as Australia and many in Latin America, the system usually ensures an overwhelming majority of voters cast their ballots election after election.

In the United States, it’s a very different story. Two-thirds of eligible voters turned out to vote in the 2020 presidential election – the highest rate since 1900. Turnout in presidential elections before 2020 tended to hover between 50% and 65%.

Often, it’s the voters choosing to stay home on the couch who effectively decide an election’s outcome.

Under the United States’ unusual Electoral College presidential voting system, the candidate who wins the most votes nationally does not necessarily win the election. Twice in the past 25 years, Democrats have won the popular vote in the presidential race and still lost the election. That includes Donald Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

As such, victory depends on getting more voters “off the couch” in key battleground states where the decisive Electoral College votes are up for grabs. In those states, it doesn’t matter what percentage of people show up to vote, or how much a candidate wins by, it is winner take all.

A voter who doesn’t vote, therefore, actually makes an active choice — they remove a vote from the candidate they would have likely chosen, and so give an important advantage to the person they would not have voted for.

The “couch” is effectively where Americans go to vote against their self-interest.

Who is more incentivised to vote?

As this year’s presidential election between Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, we ask a simple question: whose “couch” will decide one of the most consequential elections in living memory?

Recent research demonstrates that partisanship is an important driver of voter choice in presidential elections.

The fact that the US is deeply divided is not news to most, but current survey data show how evenly split along partisan lines it actually is. With about 30% of Americans identifying as a Republican and 30% identifying as a Democrat, there is virtually no difference in the total number of voters who support each major party.

The remaining 40% of Americans identify as “independent” – that is, not loyal to either major political party. Almost seven decades of research on the American voter shows, however, that independents heavily “lean” towards one party or the other, with about half leaning Republican and the other half leaning Democrat.

One possible insight into which group has greater incentive to vote is polling on people’s dissatisfaction with their party’s candidate.

According to the most recent Gallup Poll data, 9% of Republicans currently have an unfavourable opinion of Trump. In contrast, only 5% of Democrats have an unfavourable opinion of Harris.

Partisan voters who are dissatisfied with their party candidate have a massive incentive to “stay on the couch” and refrain from voting. They don’t really want to vote for “the other team”, but they can’t stand their own team anymore either.

For example, Republican women in the suburbs, veterans and traditional Republicans have started to abandon Trump over his stances on reproductive rights and national security, and his temperament. The Trump campaign clearly knows this. At a rally in New York a few days ago, he told attendees to “get your fat ass out of the couch” to go vote for him.

Should these disaffected Republican and Republican-leaning voters stay home on November 5, Harris may well have a decisive edge over Trump.

When the couch wins, America loses

In 2016, Trump defied the polls and traditional voter turn-out trends by convincing some disaffected, working-class Democrats to stay on the couch, vote for an unelectable third party candidate or, in some cases, vote for him.

Could this happen again? Or will Democrats be able to reverse this phenomenon by getting exhausted Republicans suffering Trump fatigue to stay home, while motivating everyone from Taylor Swift fans to “never Trumpers” to veterans of foreign wars to get out to vote.

Recent trends suggest overall turnout will be comparatively high, in line with the past three federal US elections.

Democrats have traditionally benefited from higher voter turn-out, but it is not as clear this is still the case in 2024. Recent research shows higher turnout rates seem to have favoured the Republican Party since 2016.

Yet both parties still have significant numbers of people who don’t vote. According to the Pew Research Center, 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents didn’t vote in the past three elections (2018, 2020 and 2022), compared to the 41% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

So again, who sits on the couch matters. Inevitably, many of those who stay home will get precisely what they don’t want. When the couch wins, America loses.

Jeff Bleich is a former US ambassador to Australia and a member of the National Security Leaders for America, a group of 700 former generals, admirals, service secretaries, ambassadors, and other national security professionals, that has endorsed Kamala Harris in the presidential election. He was also special counsel to President Barack Obama and served as chair of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board under President Donald Trump and as a member of President Joe Biden’s (non-partisan) National Security Education Board.

Rodrigo Praino receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government Department of Defence, and SmartSat CRC.

– ref. In a US presidential election with razor-thin margins, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins? – https://theconversation.com/in-a-us-presidential-election-with-razor-thin-margins-will-couch-sitters-decide-who-wins-239394

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland

In January 2023, a new comet was discovered. Comets are found regularly, but astronomers quickly realised this one, called C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS), had the potential to be quite bright.

Some hyperbolic reports have suggested it might be the “comet of the century”, but any astronomer will tell you the brightness of comets is notoriously hard to predict. As I explained last year, we’d have to wait until it arrived to be sure how bright it would become.

Now, the time has come. Comet C/2023 A3 is currently visible with the naked eye in the morning sky in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand, with its best yet to come in the next few weeks. And it does look promising. It’s unlikely to be the comet of the decade (never mind the comet of the century), but it will almost certainly become the best comet of the year.

So where, and when, should you look to get your best views of this celestial visitor?

A show in the morning, before sunrise

At the moment, comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) is a morning object, rising around an hour and a half before sunrise. It is visible to the naked eye, but not yet spectacular. However, with binoculars you can easily see the comet’s dusty tail pointing away from the Sun.

The comet will remain at about the same altitude in the morning sky until around September 30. It will then get closer to the horizon on each consecutive morning until it’s lost in the glare of the approaching dawn by October 6 or 7.

If you want to spot the comet in the morning sky, look east. The sliders below will help you orient yourself and choose the best time to look, depending on your latitude.

During this period, the comet should slowly brighten. It reaches its closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) on September 27, when it will be 58 million kilometres from our star.

As it swings around the Sun, it will continue to approach Earth, and so should continue to brighten. The best show in the morning sky will likely be during the last couple of days of September and the first few days in October, before the comet is lost to view.

A potential daylight comet

Thanks to pure good fortune, comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will then pass almost directly between Earth and the Sun on October 9 and 10.

This could cause a spectacular brightening of the comet, thanks to “forward scattering” caused by its dust. Imagine looking towards a bright light source through a cloud of dust grains. The grains nearest to the light source will scatter light from the source back towards you.

As the comet swings between Earth and the Sun, it will be perfectly placed for this forward scattering process to occur. If the comet is particularly dusty, this could cause its apparent brightness to increase by up to 100 times.

If it does, there’s a small chance the comet could briefly become visible in the daylight sky on October 9 and 10.

However, it will be very close to the Sun in the sky, and incredibly hard to spot. Only the most experienced observers may be able to detect the comet at this time, and it requires a special technique. Do not try to stare at the Sun to see it.

The best show could be after October 12

After swinging between Earth and the Sun, the comet will appear in the evening sky. It will rapidly climb in the western sky, and should be a bright, naked-eye object for a few days from October 12. The sliders below will give you a sense of where to look.

For the first few days of this period, the comet will still benefit from the forward scattering of sunlight, but this will decrease as it moves away.

What about the tail?

The positioning of the comet, Earth and the Sun in the Solar System means the comet’s tail will be streaming outwards, past our planet. This means it could grow to prodigious lengths in the night sky.

The bulk of that tail will likely be too dim to see easily with the naked eye, but it could be a fantastic spectacle for photographers. Expect to see a wealth of comet images flooding the internet around the middle of October.

As the days pass and the comet climbs higher, it will fade quite rapidly. It will likely become too faint to see with the naked eye, even for seasoned and experienced observers, before the end of October.

At that point, the show will be over. Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will continue to flee the inner Solar System, moving into the icy depths of space, never to return.

How reliable are the predictions?

At the moment, the comet is already bright enough to consider it the “comet of the year”, outshining comet 12P/Pons-Brooks from earlier this year.

But remember the classic saying – comets are like cats. They have tails and will often surprise us. For now, comet C/2023 A3 is behaving itself. It’s brightening predictably, and putting on a good show.

But comets that approach this closely to the Sun often fragment. This is impossible to predict, and far from guaranteed. If the comet did break up, it could become even more spectacular because of all the dust and gas it would release.

The opposite could still happen, too. The comet could fail to brighten as much as we expect, although that seems unlikely at this stage.

Whatever happens, we’re in for a fascinating few weeks of comet watching. Hopefully, a real spectacle awaits us.

Jonti Horner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The ‘best comet of the year’ is finally here – here’s everything you need to know – https://theconversation.com/the-best-comet-of-the-year-is-finally-here-heres-everything-you-need-to-know-239300

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Bleich, Professorial fellow, Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies, Flinders University

In countries with compulsory voting, such as Australia and many in Latin America, the system usually ensures an overwhelming majority of voters cast their ballots election after election.

In the United States, it’s a very different story. Two-thirds of eligible voters turned out to vote in the 2020 presidential election – the highest rate since 1900. Turnout in presidential elections before 2020 tended to hover between 50% and 65%.

Often, it’s the voters choosing to stay home on the couch who effectively decide an election’s outcome.

Under the United States’ unusual Electoral College presidential voting system, the candidate who wins the most votes nationally does not necessarily win the election. Twice in the past 25 years, Democrats have won the popular vote in the presidential race and still lost the election. That includes Donald Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

As such, victory depends on getting more voters “off the couch” in key battleground states where the decisive Electoral College votes are up for grabs. In those states, it doesn’t matter what percentage of people show up to vote, or how much a candidate wins by, it is winner take all.

A voter who doesn’t vote, therefore, actually makes an active choice — they remove a vote from the candidate they would have likely chosen, and so give an important advantage to the person they would not have voted for.

The “couch” is effectively where Americans go to vote against their self-interest.

Who is more incentivised to vote?

As this year’s presidential election between Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, we ask a simple question: whose “couch” will decide one of the most consequential elections in living memory?

Recent research demonstrates that partisanship is an important driver of voter choice in presidential elections.

The fact that the US is deeply divided is not news to most, but current survey data show how evenly split along partisan lines it actually is. With about 30% of Americans identifying as a Republican and 30% identifying as a Democrat, there is virtually no difference in the total number of voters who support each major party.

The remaining 40% of Americans identify as “independent” – that is, not loyal to either major political party. Almost seven decades of research on the American voter shows, however, that independents heavily “lean” towards one party or the other, with about half leaning Republican and the other half leaning Democrat.

One possible insight into which group has greater incentive to vote is polling on people’s dissatisfaction with their party’s candidate.

According to the most recent Gallup Poll data, 9% of Republicans currently have an unfavourable opinion of Trump. In contrast, only 5% of Democrats have an unfavourable opinion of Harris.

Partisan voters who are dissatisfied with their party candidate have a massive incentive to “stay on the couch” and refrain from voting. They don’t really want to vote for “the other team”, but they can’t stand their own team anymore either.

For example, Republican women in the suburbs, veterans and traditional Republicans have started to abandon Trump over his stances on reproductive rights and national security, and his temperament. The Trump campaign clearly knows this. At a rally in New York a few days ago, he told attendees to “get your fat ass out of the couch” to go vote for him.

Should these disaffected Republican and Republican-leaning voters stay home on November 5, Harris may well have a decisive edge over Trump.

When the couch wins, America loses

In 2016, Trump defied the polls and traditional voter turn-out trends by convincing some disaffected, working-class Democrats to stay on the couch, vote for an unelectable third party candidate or, in some cases, vote for him.

Could this happen again? Or will Democrats be able to reverse this phenomenon by getting exhausted Republicans suffering Trump fatigue to stay home, while motivating everyone from Taylor Swift fans to “never Trumpers” to veterans of foreign wars to get out to vote.

Recent trends suggest overall turnout will be comparatively high, in line with the past three federal US elections.

Democrats have traditionally benefited from higher voter turn-out, but it is not as clear this is still the case in 2024. Recent research shows higher turnout rates seem to have favoured the Republican Party since 2016.

Yet both parties still have significant numbers of people who don’t vote. According to the Pew Research Center, 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents didn’t vote in the past three elections (2018, 2020 and 2022), compared to the 41% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

So again, who sits on the couch matters. Inevitably, many of those who stay home will get precisely what they don’t want. When the couch wins, America loses.

Jeff Bleich is a former US ambassador to Australia and a member of the National Security Leaders for America, a group of 700 former generals, admirals, service secretaries, ambassadors, and other national security professionals, that has endorsed Kamala Harris in the presidential election. He was also special counsel to President Barack Obama and served as chair of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board under President Donald Trump and as a member of President Joe Biden’s (non-partisan) National Security Education Board.

Rodrigo Praino receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government Department of Defence, and SmartSat CRC.

– ref. In a too-close-to-call US presidential election, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins? – https://theconversation.com/in-a-too-close-to-call-us-presidential-election-will-couch-sitters-decide-who-wins-239394

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olga Anikeeva, Research Fellow, School of Public Health, University of Adelaide

Pandemics – the global spread of infectious diseases – seem to be making a comeback. In the Middle Ages we had the Black Death (plague), and after the first world war we had the Spanish flu. Tens of millions of people died from these diseases.

Then science began to get the upper hand, with vaccination eradicating smallpox, and polio nearly so. Antibiotics became available to treat bacterial infections, and more recently antivirals as well.

But in recent years and decades pandemics seem to be returning. In the 1980s we had HIV/AIDS, then several flu pandemics, SARS, and now COVID (no, COVID isn’t over).

So why is this happening, and is there anything we can do to avert future pandemics?

Unbalanced ecosystems

Healthy, stable ecosystems provide services that keep us healthy, such as supplying food and clean water, producing oxygen, and making green spaces available for our recreation and wellbeing.

Another key service ecosystems provide is disease regulation. When nature is in balance – with predators controlling herbivore populations, and herbivores controlling plant growth – it’s more difficult for pathogens to emerge in a way that causes pandemics.

But when human activities disrupt and unbalance ecosystems – such as by way of climate change and biodiversity loss – things go wrong.

For example, climate change affects the number and distribution of plants and animals. Mosquitoes that carry diseases can move from the tropics into what used to be temperate climates as the planet warms, and may infect more people in the months that are normally disease free.

We’ve studied the relationship between weather and dengue fever transmission in China, and our findings support the same conclusion reached by many other studies: climate change is likely to put more people at risk of dengue.

Biodiversity loss can have similar effects by disrupting food chains. When ranchers cleared forests in South America for their cattle to graze in the first half of the 20th century, tiny forest-dwelling, blood-feeding vampire bats suddenly had a smörgåsbord of large sedentary animals to feed on.

While vampire bats had previously been kept in check by the limited availability of food and the presence of predators in the balanced forest ecosystem, numbers of this species exploded in South America.

These bats carry the rabies virus, which causes lethal brain infections in people who are bitten. Although the number of deaths from bat-borne rabies has now fallen dramatically due to vaccination programs in South America, rabies caused by bites from other animals still poses a global threat.

As urban and agricultural development impinges on natural ecosystems, there are increasing opportunities for humans and domestic animals to become infected with pathogens that would normally only be seen in wildlife – particularly when people hunt and eat animals from the wild.

The HIV virus, for example, first entered human populations from apes that were slaughtered for food in Africa, and then spread globally through travel and trade.

Meanwhile, bats are thought to be the original reservoir for the virus that caused the COVID pandemic, which has killed more than 7 million people to date.

Ultimately, until we effectively address the unsustainable impact we are having on our planet, pandemics will continue to occur.

Targeting the ultimate causes

Factors such as climate change, biodiversity loss and other global challenges are the ultimate (high level) cause of pandemics. Meanwhile, increased contact between humans, domestic animals and wildlife is the proximate (immediate) cause.

In the case of HIV, while direct contact with the infected blood of apes was the proximate cause, the apes were only being slaughtered because large numbers of very poor people were hungry – an ultimate cause.

The distinction between ultimate causes and proximate causes is important, because we often deal only with proximate causes. For example, people may smoke because of stress or social pressure (ultimate causes of getting lung cancer), but it’s the toxins in the smoke that cause cancer (proximate cause).

Generally, health services are only concerned with stopping people from smoking – and with treating the illness that results – not with removing the drivers that lead them to smoke in the first place.

Similarly, we address pandemics with lockdowns, mask wearing, social distancing and vaccinations – all measures which seek to stop the spread of the virus. But we pay less attention to addressing the ultimate causes of pandemics – until perhaps very recently.

A planetary health approach

There’s a growing awareness of the importance of adopting a “planetary health” approach to improve human health. This concept is based on the understanding that human health and human civilisation depend on flourishing natural systems, and the wise stewardship of those natural systems.

With this approach, ultimate drivers like climate change and biodiversity loss would be prioritised in preventing future pandemics, at the same time as working with experts from many different disciplines to deal with the proximate causes, thereby reducing the risk overall.

The planetary health approach has the benefit of improving both the health of the environment and human health concurrently. We are heartened by the increased uptake of teaching planetary health concepts across the environmental sciences, humanities and health sciences in many universities.

As climate change, biodiversity loss, population displacements, travel and trade continue to increase the risk of disease outbreaks, it’s vital that the planetary stewards of the future have a better understanding of how to tackle the ultimate causes that drive pandemics.

This article is the first in a series on the next pandemic.

Olga Anikeeva receives funding from Green Adelaide.

Jessica Stanhope receives funding from the Ecological Health Network and Green Adelaide. She is affiliated with the Environmental Physiotherapy Association.

Peng Bi receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, AusAID,

Philip Weinstein receives funding from competitive external granting bodies. He is affiliated with Nature Foundation, Australian Entomological Society, and the South Australian Museum.

– ref. Why are we seeing more pandemics? Our impact on the planet has a lot to do with it – https://theconversation.com/why-are-we-seeing-more-pandemics-our-impact-on-the-planet-has-a-lot-to-do-with-it-226827

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jay Rutovitz, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney

The electricity workforce will need to double in five years to achieve Australia’s 2030 renewable energy target, our new report finds. More than 80% of these jobs will be in renewables. Jobs in energy storage alone will overtake domestic coal and gas jobs (not including the coal and gas export sector) in the next couple of years.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) updates its Integrated System Plan every two years. It’s a blueprint for the energy transition from coal to renewable energy. The plan lays out scenarios for how the electricity system might change to help put in place all the elements needed to make the transition happen.

AEMO and the RACE for 2030 co-operative research centre commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures to undertake modelling on the workforce needed for this transition. The “step change” scenario in the Integrated System Plan is broadly aligned with the 2030 renewables target. Under this scenario, we found the electricity workforce would need to grow from 33,000 to peak at 66,000 by 2029.

Rooftop solar and batteries together are projected to account for over 40% of these jobs. Wind farms will employ around one-third and solar farms just under 10%. Jobs would also treble in transmission line construction to connect renewables in regional areas to cities and other states in the next few years.

Job growth would surge in a ‘renewable energy superpower’

In the “green energy export” scenario, Australia becomes a “renewable energy superpower”. The country uses renewable energy to export green hydrogen and power heavy industry. In this scenario, the electricity workforce would almost treble to 96,000 by the late 2020s.

By 2033, after construction peaks, more than half of electricity sector jobs will be in operations and maintenance. This applies to both the step change and green energy export scenarios.

A significant employment downturn is projected during the 2030s. But in the green energy export scenario jobs then climb steeply again to a peak of 120,000. This projection reflects AEMO’s expectations of when green export growth will occur.

New South Wales is projected to have the most renewable energy jobs in the 2020s. However, Queensland would become the largest state for renewable jobs (especially in wind farms) in the green energy export scenario.

What are the other possibilities?

“Progressive change” is another scenario in the Integrated System Plan. For this scenario, we modelled slower growth in renewable energy. It reflects constraints on the economy and supply chains (including labour and minerals) for renewables.

In an “enhanced manufacturing” scenario, local renewable energy manufacturing increases. Our modelling found it could create a peak of 5,000 extra jobs.

Importantly, these projections don’t include upstream jobs in supply chains for the sector (for example, increased mining to supply the resources that renewables need) or electrification of homes.

Creating this many jobs is very challenging

Our modelling shows the workforce needs to grow very rapidly to make Australia’s energy transition happen. Unfortunately, the challenges of building this workforce are daunting. They include:

• there’s a shortage of almost all key occupations in demand for the electricity sector – electricians, engineers, construction managers – according to Australia’s Skills Priority List

• “extraordinary growth” forecast by Infrastructure Australia in other major infrastructure projects, such as transport, which will compete for many of the same skilled workers

• under AEMO’s scenarios, employment will be subject to boom-bust cycles, which increases the risk of skill shortages and damaging impacts, such as housing shortages, in regional areas

• Australia has relied heavily on skilled migrants – and will look to do so again – but many parts of the world are chasing the same workers.

The International Energy Agency has noted:

Labour and skills shortages are already translating into project delays, raising concerns that clean energy solutions will be unable to keep pace with demand to meet net zero targets.

What can be done to avoid skill shortages?

Some action has been taken to increase the workforce. The federal government, for instance, is subsidising apprentices under the New Energy Apprenticeship program.

But action isn’t happening at the scale and pace required.

What else can be done?

Firstly, Jobs Skills Australia and Powering Skills Organisation (which oversees energy skills training) have outlined ways to increase the system’s capacity to train more skilled workers. This includes creating better pathways into renewable energy for students, especially in recognised Renewable Energy Zones.

Secondly, Jobs Skills Australia has noted the need for renewable energy businesses to increase their intakes of apprentices. It recommends expanding the Australian Skills Guarantee to include generation and transmission projects.

The guarantee has set mandatory targets for apprentices or trainees to complete 10% of labour hours on Commonwealth-funded major construction and information technology projects (A$10 million plus). It could also be applied to major government funding programs for renewable energy and transmission. These include:

• the Capacity Investment Scheme, a government tender program to support a large volume of new renewables and storage projects

• Rewiring the Nation, a $20 billion fund for transmission lines

• grants from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

Thirdly, government tenders could moderate the peaks and troughs in employment by limiting the maximum and minimum volumes built each year.

Fourthly, including more women and First Nations Australians can increase labour supply and workforce diversity. Only one-in-two First Nations Australians are employed compared to around two in three in the wider population. Yet they account for around one-in-ten people in some major Renewable Energy Zones.

Government pre-employment programs, working with industry and First Nations groups, could also increase the supply of workers. These could have a dramatic social impact too.

It’s a challenging problem whichever way you look at it. We need rapid change to build renewable energy capacity before coal plants retire and to tackle climate change. But that depends on growing the workforce amid skill shortages.

There’s a range of ways to increase the supply of workers and improve local outcomes. But we are running out of time. Urgent action is needed.

The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the RACE for 2030 CRC for the report upon which this article is based

The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the RACE for 2030 CRC for the report upon which this article is based.

– ref. Our electricity workforce must double to hit the 2030 renewables target. Energy storage jobs will soon overtake those in coal and gas – https://theconversation.com/our-electricity-workforce-must-double-to-hit-the-2030-renewables-target-energy-storage-jobs-will-soon-overtake-those-in-coal-and-gas-239718

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Cull, Associate professor, Western Sydney University

Negative gearing and capital gains tax are back on the national agenda as Australians deal with a housing crisis and politicians look for ways to tackle the issue and win voters’ support at the upcoming election.

The Labor government confirmed this week the tax concessions were being reviewed. Meanwhile, the government is struggling to pass its Help to Buy housing assistance legislation through the Senate.

The Help to Buy legislation is aimed at helping first home buyers on low and middle incomes purchase their first home. The government would contribute up to 40% of the home purchase price and require only a 2% deposit from buyer. Buyers could eventually buy back the government’s equity share.

But the legislation has stalled with the Greens wanting more including rent caps and pulling back negative gearing while the Coalition says the government “shouldn’t be in the business of co-owning people’s homes”.

The review, revealed yesterday, could reportedly include a cap on the number of properties a person could negatively gear. The changes would not affect anyone who is currently negatively geared.

Negative gearing lets taxpayers claim deductions on their tax for the expenses relating to owning an investment property. They can save on tax as the property potentially rises in value. They can also be eligible for a reduced capital gains tax when they sell the property.

But any changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax policies could face further opposition – depending on how they are implemented. The crucial issue is whether the changes free up enough housing stock and make it more affordable for buyers and renters.

Home ownership in Australia

Based on National Housing Supply and Affordability Council data, home ownership across most age groups has been declining since the 1970s.

Younger households, aged between 25 and 34 years, are hardest hit, having 34% of household income spent on mortgage costs in 2022–23.

About 67% of households in Australia are home owners, and the remainder renters. While the proportion of owners with a mortgage has increased since 1994, so too has the proportion of private renters.

Size of the investment market

Just under 10% of all taxpayers negatively geared their properties in 2020–21 and more than 70% of property investors have only one investment property.

While there have been calls for changes to negative gearing policy to cap the number of investment properties at six, this would impact about only 20,000 individual property investors.

Changes to capital gains tax

Suggestions to increase capital gains tax (CGT) need to be considered carefully, given that:

• there is no solid evidence to show that increasing CGT will increase housing supply and in fact, it may have the opposite effect by limiting rental housing available

• any change to CGT legislation also impacts other investments (such as shares), as the CGT discount also applies to other capital gains

• multiple investment properties are often held within self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) which are subject to different CGT rules and also benefit from superannuation tax concessions

• the rapid increase in housing prices over recent years is likely to result in very large amounts of CGT being paid on investment properties, even with the current 50% CGT discount.

Other ways to improve affordability and availability

Policy discussions around housing affordability and availability invariably lead to suggestions to change how negative gearing and capital gains tax operate. However, taxation policy is not the only solution available.

Another suggestion put forward is to allow first home buyers to use their superannuation for deposits.

Regardless of one’s position on accessing superannuation for something other than retirement, this suggestion is not viable for low to middle income earners. These households are unlikely to have substantial superannuation balances. Also, they don’t have the earning capacity to service a mortgage for the outstanding amount.

There is currently a push to use self-managed super funds SMSFs to enable home ownership. This would effectively allow individuals to become tenants in homes owned by their super funds.

However, the complexities of superannuation law mean this could cause big problems for people whose relationships break down.

Considering the generational wealth that currently exists in property, the government could consider making it easier for parents or grandparents to gift (or sell) property to their children or grandchildren, in certain circumstances.

This area has not yet been sufficiently explored.

What needs to change

The real issue of housing affordability is multifaceted, and any change needs to be done as part of a broader policy.

It is likely that on its own, changes to negative gearing and/or capital gains tax will not achieve the intended outcome to make housing more accessible and affordable for Australians who want to buy a home.

While the debate around the best way to achieve housing affordability and accessibility continues, and while there are statistics that tell us about the current housing crisis, one crucial thing that is missing is the voice of the very people that any new housing policy should be designed to assist.

More consultation is needed with younger age groups and low to middle income earners who are struggling with high rent and unable to purchase their own home.

Australia desperately needs bold new innovative housing policies that do not rely solely on the taxation system but that consider a raft of measures that meet the housing needs of everyday Australians.

Michelle Cull is co-founder of the Western Sydney University Tax Clinic which has received funding from the Australian Taxation Office as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. Michelle Cull is a member of CPA Australia and the Financial Advice Association Australia. Michelle is also an academic member of UniSuper’s Consultative Committee and volunteers as Chair of the Macarthur Advisory Council for the Salvation Army Australia.

– ref. The government is reviewing negative gearing and capital gains tax, but this won’t be enough to fix our housing shortage – https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-reviewing-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-but-this-wont-be-enough-to-fix-our-housing-shortage-239813

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Blumenfeld, Director, Centre for Labour, Employment and Work, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon sparked debate on the future of work in New Zealand this week when he ordered public service employees back to the office.

But Luxon’s edict neglects a broader transformation in work culture.

Work from home (WFH) arrangements have grown considerably over the past decade, propelled by an increase in dual-income households and rapid technological advancements.

The COVID pandemic acted as a catalyst for further change, proving that many jobs could successfully be performed remotely.

Our upcoming article in the New Zealand Journal of Employment Relations addresses the pros and cons of remote work. We highlight how a hybrid model – mixing days in the office with days working from home – can improve wellbeing, engagement and productivity.

We found embracing a hybrid approach may lead to better outcomes as society shifts with technology and employment expectations. And, despite the prime minister’s demands on public service workers, it may be too late to go back.

Embracing flexibility

Under current rules, employees can request flexible working arrangements. Employers must provide valid reasons if they decline the request.

According to a 2023 survey from Human Resources New Zealand, 40% of HR professionals noted productivity gains as a critical advantage of WFH arrangements.

And some professional organisations have embraced work from home or hybrid work arrangements.

The New Zealand Law Association, for example, has emphasised the significant benefits of flexible work for their members, including increased employee engagement, productivity, and overall wellbeing.

A report from Te Kawa Mataaho Public Service Commission noted the public service’s success in delivering quality services during the pandemic while working remotely.

The commission’s current guidance on hybrid work arrangements supports flexibility that allows working from home to focus and working together when necessary.

Does WFH reduce efficiency?

Luxon argues forcing workers back to the office will promote efficiency. But there is little evidence suggesting New Zealand’s productivity has significantly declined with WFH or hybrid arrangements.

Instead, we found office-only arrangements risked introducing new inefficiencies for the government. These included new layers of permissions and reporting on arrangements that have already been agreed to.

The assumption that office work suits everyone is also contradicted by experiences during and after COVID.

During the first year of the pandemic, many workers felt the void of casual interactions that once sparked creativity. They also struggled with isolation. This was especially pronounced for caregivers, often women, who had to juggle professional duties with increased childcare responsibilities.

Despite this, a University of Otago survey conducted during the pandemic noted 67% of participants preferred a hybrid work model.

Many expressed optimism regarding remote work’s continuation, with significant portions reporting stable or increased productivity, although some struggled with home distractions.

And our research found taking a hybrid approach to work – with one or more days at home – reduced the risks from professional and social isolation and improved collaboration.

Opportunities to work at home some of the time also allowed time for focused work, reduced commuting time and improved wellbeing.

Boosting productivity from home

Luxon’s assertion that working from home is “not an entitlement” aligns with traditional views on work. These include the belief that time at a desk is a measurement of productivity, rather than measuring the outcomes from work.

However, a growing body of evidence indicates remote work can elevate both productivity and employee satisfaction.

Eliminating daily commutes allows employees to redirect time toward focused work, positively impacting job satisfaction and mental wellbeing.

Moreover, remote work fosters inclusivity, enabling organisations to source talent from a broader geographic area, which in turn enhances diversity and innovation.

A report from McKinsey & Company found businesses adopting flexible work arrangements are better positioned to navigate future uncertainties, sustaining or even boosting productivity.

A survey by the Australian Council of Trade Unions exploring WFH revealed nearly 48% of participants experienced enhanced productivity, attributed in part to the elimination of commuting.

However, it also highlighted challenges. Some 40% of respondents said they were facing longer work hours, which can lead to burnout. Addressing these issues is essential to maintaining employee wellbeing.

The future of work

Instead of enforcing strict office attendance, leaders should adapt to the changing work landscape.

Promoting flexible arrangements can foster a more productive and engaged workforce, ultimately benefiting New Zealand’s public service in today’s dynamic environment.

Balancing both office and remote work presents the most promising path forward.

Joanne Crawford receives funding from the Health Research Council and the NZ Industrial Relations Foundation Trust.

Roya Gorjifard receives funding from the Victoria University of Wellington for Doctoral Research.

Chris Peace and Stephen Blumenfeld do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Mixing it up: hybrid work models can offer the best of both worlds for worker wellbeing and productivity – https://theconversation.com/mixing-it-up-hybrid-work-models-can-offer-the-best-of-both-worlds-for-worker-wellbeing-and-productivity-239710

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Xanthe Mallett, Forensic Criminologist, University of Newcastle

Are we products of nature or nurture?

That’s the age-old question at the heart of Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan’s new Netflix release, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menéndez Story. The show focuses on the 1989 murders of José and Kitty Menéndez by their sons Erik and Lyle.

The prosecution convinced a jury the two brothers were cold-blooded killers, driven by the desire to access their parents’ wealth. The brothers, meanwhile, claim to be victims of physical, emotional and sexual abuse at the hands of their parents – and say the killings were therefore self-defence.

What’s the truth? Perhaps both.

Creating the image of a ‘monster’

The case details are well known. In fact, I have taught this case to my own criminology students as an example of the victim-offender overlap, as clearly these brothers existed in a very dysfunctional family.

On August 20 1989, brothers Lyle (then 21) and Erik (then 18) shot and killed their parents in their Beverly Hills mansion. They faced two trials. The first one in 1993 saw the brothers tried separately and ended in two hung juries and subsequent mistrials.

In the second trial, which began in 1995, the pair were tried together. In 1996 they were found guilty of first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder, and sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

Interestingly, the prosecution raised new objections to the admission of a large amount of defence evidence in the second trial, so the judge consequently excluded much of the evidence of abuse.

This essentially dismantled the brothers’ entire defence, which was predicated on the fact they killed their parents out of fear, after they threatened to expose their father for serious and protracted physical, sexual and emotional abuse.

The Netflix series has created significant controversy. It documents a version of events leading up to the murders, including detailed histories of both Lyle’s and Erik’s sexual abuse, as well as the crimes themselves and subsequent trials.

In the series, the brothers are portrayed in a homoerotic and incestuous way. For context, back in 1995 Lyle testified that he sexually offended against Erik, but this was against the background of the alleged sexual abuse from their father.

Monsters, on the other hand, shows the brothers having an incestuous relationship as adults. The brothers deny this and there’s little evidence to support it.

While the pair is sometimes painted in a sympathetic light, at other times the viewer is led to question whether greed was their true motive.

Erik Menéndez has slammed the series, saying it walks back on decades of understanding of the devastating impacts sexual abuse has on male victims.

I have to agree.

The brothers didn’t just kill their parents and call it a day. These murders were incredibly brutal. As a criminologist, it looked to me like they were trying to obliterate their parents.

José was shot in the back of the head, execution-style, while Kitty was shot a total of ten times, including one shot directly to her face. Such crimes are generally not motivated by money; they tend to be driven by something much deeper.

Murder porn at its worst

This case can be seen through the ghoulish eyes of “murder porn”. The first trial, which was televised in 1993, went viral on TikTok in 2021, engaging a new generation of fans.

Watching the footage from the 1990s, some of us will remember the legions of screaming girls who welcomed the handsome brothers to court. It was more like a scene from a boyband concert than a brutal double-murder trial.

Whether you believe the brothers are cold-blooded and opportunistic killers, or victims of serious child abuse, will influence your take on the ongoing interest in the case and the portrayal in Monsters.

Monsters isn’t the first example of Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan cheapening real tragedies by turning them into voyeuristic and fictionalised television.

The first instalment of the same series focused on Jeffrey Dahmer, a serial killer and sex offender who killed 17 men and boys between 1978 and 1991. Dahmer also engaged in necrophilia and cannibalism, so his brutal crimes were rich fodder for Netflix.

Dahmer’s victims were openly critical, saying the retelling of the offender’s story diminished their loved ones’ suffering and revictimised them by opening old wounds.

Regardless, Dahmer achieved critical acclaim with 13 nominations at the 2023 Emmy Awards, no doubt spurring the creators’ enthusiasm to further develop the franchise.

The way forward

The path to ethical true crime depiction lies in establishing facts and veering away from embellishing or glorifying the criminal or their crimes.

Ideally, true crime should be victim focused and should achieve a purpose beyond entertainment. We have a lot to learn from criminal history, but these stories should be told in educational ways that respect and honour victims’ lives.

We each have a responsibility to consume ethically produced true crime. Whether it’s TV series, films, podcasts or books, we vote for what we want through our engagement. My maxim is to choose content that reflects how I would want my story told, were I to ever become the focus of a true crime production.

If you’re curious to hear more about the Menéndez brothers’ story, a new Netflix documentary called The Menéndez Brothers is set for release on October 7. Both Erik and Lyle have contributed to it through phone interviews conducted from prison – and they say there’s much that hasn’t been told.

Xanthe Mallett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Netflix’s Monsters is ‘murder porn’ at its worst. It comes at a cost to real victims – and the truth – https://theconversation.com/netflixs-monsters-is-murder-porn-at-its-worst-it-comes-at-a-cost-to-real-victims-and-the-truth-239596

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University

Prestigious Victorian golf club 13th Beach Golf Links, famed for award-winning courses and hosting the Victorian Open, has found itself in the middle of a controversy.

In a bid to bolster membership, diversity and revenue, the club has introduced additional membership categories for women. These memberships form part of a dedicated campaign to get more women on the greens, following a member and board supported strategic plan to grow women’s membership from 18% to 30% by 2027.

Despite the club’s commitment to gender representation, its status as a signatory to The Royal & Ancient Golf Club of St Andrews (R&A)’s Women in Golf Charter and recognition as a 2023 Visionary of the Year by Golf Australia for its “whole-club approach to gender equity”, support among some members remains wanting.

A stunt that made waves

Controversy erupted at 13th Beach after its new women’s memberships were launched.

One male member, wearing a blonde wig and skirt, was captured approaching club staff to inquire about the new women’s membership options, remarking:

I’m identifying as a female now and I’m just about to inquire about the new membership deal.

The male member, and two others who filmed and shared the footage, were temporarily suspended from the club.

A key element to the controversy is the discounted membership compared to male golfers.

After the stunt, some men and women claimed:

[The club] openly discriminates against males […] it is both fair and just for female members to pay the same subs as their male counterparts, as equality is a fundamental principle that we should uphold.

However, this statement conveniently denies the sport’s current and past issues with gender, race and class.

Historical and current barriers

Globally year-on-year, the growth of male golf participation outnumbers women, with women making up 23% of adult registered golfers worldwide.

In Australia, golf participation rates continue to rise. Among women and girls, Golf Australia reported a near 13% increase from 2022–23.

Despite this rise, access issues and barriers to full participation for women and girls run deep.

A lack of visibility of female golfers can reinforce stereotypes of golf as a men’s game, while women can struggle with amenities and equipment designed for men.

Golf is steeped in gendered, raced and classed exclusion, and was traditionally a sport for men of similar social standing.

Women were confined to secret games or putting activities, away from the “real” golf played by men.

Women were banned from golf’s spiritual home, St Andrews in Scotland, for 260 years – until a 2014 vote when female membership was finally permitted.

Two years earlier, premier United States course Augusta National welcomed its first women members.

An uneven playing field

Despite recent improvements, women’s golf participation and membership access frequently remain conditional.

Traditionally in Australia, women and girls have been restricted to “associate” or “lady” memberships – which often have lower status and fewer benefits.

Course access can also be problematic, with Saturdays often reserved for male players.

At many Australian clubs, Tuesdays are often referred to as “ladies day” which assumes women don’t have work or other commitments.

Women members are often allotted less popular tee times while overall, some club cultures can render golf courses chilly climates for women.

Being scrutinised and surveilled on the greens by male golfers is reported by women as a barrier – feelings of hyper-visibility, being mocked for their play and their bodies frequently undermines women’s enjoyment.

At the professional level, while the women’s game is increasing in prize money, media coverage and sponsorship, there is still significant room for change.

For female professional golfers, research also highlights a male-dominated and “sexist environment”.

Inclusivity is good for everyone

In a bid to increase participation among more diverse groups, Golf Australia is inspiring people to “go play and enjoy golf in their own way”.

As part of its “own way campaign,” programs have been designed for seniors, women and disabled players.

Recognising how differences such as race and culture shape golf participation, more community-facing programs are targeting improved diversity.

Off the greens, golf leadership and administration is also under the spotlight.

Including women’s voices in decision making is key to realising meaningful change – research clearly finds boards with diversity of thought and representation perform better.

Beyond the important inclusivity debates, there are clear commercial reasons to enable women’s participation.

Very recent industry research states there are an estimated 36.9 million latent women golfers around the world, and this group may be worth up to US$35 billion (A$51 billion) to the golf industry should they take up the sport more permanently.

Golf has a lucrative opportunity.

Valuing and enabling diversity in all areas should fill the coffers and genuinely position golf as a sport for all.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Swing and a miss? Why golf in Australia is struggling to attract women and girls – https://theconversation.com/swing-and-a-miss-why-golf-in-australia-is-struggling-to-attract-women-and-girls-239202

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

A closely watched measure of Australian inflation dived in the month of August, plunging from 3.5% in July to just 2.7%.

The dip below 3% puts the monthly measure of annual inflation back within the Reserve Bank’s target band of 2-3% for the first time since August 2021.

The longer-running quarterly measure of annual inflation is also likely to be back within the 2-3% band when the September-quarter figure is released next month.

The dramatically lower inflation rate puts Australia in the same league as the United States, whose inflation rate is 2.5%, and the United Kingdom, whose inflation rate is 2.2%.

The US and the UK have inflation targets of 2%, meaning their inflation rates are still somewhat above target. Australia’s monthly measure of inflation is on target, close to the middle of the band.

Electricity prices down 17.9%

Inflation has been trending down since late 2022, as shown on the graphs, but the sharp drops in the past two months are largely due to electricity rebates offered by the federal and state governments.

The rebates will be applied automatically to electricity bills in this and each of the next three quarters. A staged rollout means they hit bills in only Queensland and Western Australia in July and hit other states in August.

The Bureau of Statistics says these rebates took 6.4% off the average national power price in July and a further 14.6% off in August.

Household electricity prices were down 17.9% over the year to August. The Bureau of Statistics describes this as the largest annual fall on record.

Also helping bring down inflation were lower petrol prices and cheaper public transport, aided by Brisbane’s pre-election six-month trial of 50 cent fares.

The jump in the monthly measure to 4% in May, which had excited some commentators, now looks like a misleading blip.

A takeaway is to be cautious in interpreting the less-comprehensive monthly indicator, as is the Reserve Bank, which puts it in small print at the top of its website under the quarterly index, which it headlines in big print.

For what it’s worth, I am expecting the quarterly index to show annual inflation of 2.8% in the year to September, down from 3.8% for the June quarter.

Governor Bullock isn’t impressed

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock says that at the moment she is paying more attention to the “underlying” rate of inflation, which looks through temporary measures such as subsidies.

But the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, the so-called trimmed mean, also fell in August, to 3.4%, down from 3.8% in July.

Australia’s weak economy – right now it’s the weakest outside of a recession – means the underlying measure of inflation is likely to continue to fall, unless the tax cuts that started in July have a big effect.

Why do we target 2-3% anyway?

Reserve Bank set its target of 2-3% inflation in the early 1990s without a lot of science. It was about where inflation was, close to the targets adopted by other countries, and was a range rather than a specific number in order to give the authorities some flexibility.

But it happens to be a sensible target, as last year’s independent review of the Reserve Bank confirmed.

The bank wants to target an inflation rate low enough to not be noticed much and to not much distort decisions.

Evidence from Google searches suggests that when inflation is around the 2-3% range, people don’t much notice it, but when it climbs up to 4% or 5%, they notice it a lot and search for the word a lot.

Although zero is (literally) a round number, zero inflation would be too low a target. It would mean deflation (prices falling) as often as not to balance out the prices that were climbing. Deflation is associated with recessions and poor economic performance.

An inflation rate of 2-3% also allows some real wages to fall (because they can increase by less than the inflation rate), which can be useful in encouraging workers out of declining industries into ones that are expanding.

In particularly bad times, the Reserve Bank might want to push interest rates down below the inflation rate. This is hard to do if the inflation rate is zero.

In theory, there is a case for increasing Australia’s inflation target to about where inflation is at the moment, but if that happened, Australia’s inflation target and future inflation targets would have less credibility.

And in any event, we are moving quickly back towards the target, and on Wednesday’s measure have already hit it.

Read more:
No RBA rate cut yet, but Governor Bullock is about to find the pressure overwhelming

John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist and forecaster in the Reserve Bank and the Australian Treasury.

– ref. At 2.7%, Australian inflation is back within the RBA zone. Here’s why that matters – https://theconversation.com/at-2-7-australian-inflation-is-back-within-the-rba-zone-heres-why-that-matters-237650

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda Przhedetsky, PhD Candidate, Faculty of Law, University of Technology Sydney

This week the New South Wales government announced it would introduce legislation that ensures renters are offered convenient, fee-free options to pay their rent.

The announcement is just one of many state and territory reforms that aim to address issues arising from the use of rental technology platforms.

In recent years these platforms and the landlords who use them have come under fire for intruding on renters’ privacy and charging additional fees. While practices such as “rent bidding” have already been outlawed around Australia, governments are now starting to turn their attention to other harmful practices facilitated by new technologies.

Action on these issues is long overdue, and there’s much more that needs to be done to ensure rental technology platforms actually benefit consumers.

An expanding industry

A wide range of digital technology platforms are used to facilitate the use, trading, operation and management of real estate assets. A well-known example is AirBnb, a technology platform that facilitates short-term rentals by connecting hosts with guests.

The property technology industry in Australia is rapidly expanding. In 2023, there were more than 478 products, start-ups and established companies ranging from marketing tools to data analytics platforms. This was up from 188 in 2019.

A portion of these companies make services typically designed to be used by renters, real estate agents or landlords.

A major selling point of rental technology platforms is that they promise to streamline a range of processes. To renters, these technologies are billed as quick, easy and effective ways to submit property applications, request maintenance or pay rent.

If designed well, these platforms can certainly offer convenience. But many have expressed dissatisfaction with rental technology businesses that pressure renters to pay for costly background checks, collect too much personal data, or use opaque algorithms to “score” applicants.

People who struggle to access or use technologies may also find these platforms difficult to use. This makes it harder for them to access an essential service.

Some 41% of renters report feeling pressured to use a third-party rental technology platform to apply for a property. And 29% say they have opted not to apply for particular rentals because they do not trust rental technology platforms. This suggests that the use of these technologies may sometimes deter, rather than attract, applicants.

Additional fees

Over 30% of Australians rent their homes, a figure that continues to grow as people find themselves priced out of home ownership. Rising rents and the overall increase in the cost of living have put many renters under substantial financial pressure.

With this in mind, it’s concerning that some renters have found themselves with little choice but to use rental technology platforms that charge fees to process rental payments.

For example, renters using a popular platform called Alio are typically charged between 0.25% to 1.50% to make automated rental payments, depending on the method of payment they use. A rough estimate shows that a household paying the median weekly rent (A$627 per week) on a fortnightly basis might see themselves paying between $81.51 and $489.06 in additional fees each year.

As required by law, Alio does offer a fee-free option to pay rent. But this option is highly inconvenient: it requires renters to enter their bank details anew every month.

The fee-free options offered by some other rental technology platforms are equally inconvenient. They include paying rent in cash at the local post office.

For renters who have been asked to use a rental payment platform, this may mean spending additional time and effort every time they pay their rent to avoid paying additional fees.

The NSW government already requires lessors to offer fee-free ways to pay rent (similar protections are legislated in other states and territories). However, the key element of this week’s announcement is a commitment to making sure these fee-free methods are actually convenient. This should hopefully close the legislative loophole that is enabling these rental technologies to unfairly profit at renters’ expense.

While the draft legislation is yet to be seen, these reforms might see renters reverting to tried and tested payment methods such as bank transfers and bypassing rental technology payment platforms altogether.

Effective enforcement

Introducing laws that ensure renters have access to convenient, fee-free ways to make rental payments is a no-brainer. The next step is ensuring these laws are enforced effectively.

To achieve this, the regulator must be well resourced to carry out compliance and enforcement activities that ensure lessors and rental technology businesses comply with these protections.

Beyond these reforms, there is more work to be done to ensure renters are effectively protected from a range of harms that are created or exacerbated by rental technology platforms.

Issues such as discrimination and unfair treatment through rental technology platforms warrant further attention.

The key challenge for governments and regulators is to keep up with technological developments so they can identify and address issues as they arise.

Linda Przhedetsky is a Board Member at the NSW Tenants’ Union, and is a member of the NSW Fair Trading’s Industry Reference Group on Protecting Renter Information. She receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.

– ref. What are ‘rent tech’ platforms? Action on reining in these exploitative tools is long overdue – https://theconversation.com/what-are-rent-tech-platforms-action-on-reining-in-these-exploitative-tools-is-long-overdue-239602

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Russell Fewster, Lecturer in Performing Arts, University of South Australia

Fun, sex, Renoir and a reckoning might be a succinct way to introduce the new play by David Williamson, The Puzzle. As Williamson noted to me in the foyer, “life would be pretty boring without sex”. However, he writes, in the production program that this comes with a proviso that licentiousness without any moral grounding can lead to human beings inadvertently “upending their lives”.

In other words: be grateful for what you’re got.

Just last month New Wave Australian playwright Jack Hibberd passed away. Hibberd, in writing one of his best-known works, Dimboola (that Williamson directed for the Pram Factory in 1973), spoke of needing to find a human ritual by putting two competing families together in his rural comedy.

Williamson, of the same generation of playwrights, similarly has pointed out “the essence of drama – [is] you put people in a room that should never be in a room together and things happen”.

While Hibberd found this in a country wedding, Williamson has found it, in this instance, in a holiday cruise that appeals as a “lifestyle” change.

Post-COVID has seen an increase in holiday cruises. Though there are comparatively small offerings of adult only cruises euphemistically titled “lifestyle cruises” (or, to be blunter, swingers cruises), they are subject to increasing demand from both young and old.

A lively production

The play’s title is taken from the large Renoir jigsaw puzzle found in the games room of a cruise ship that brings together those wanting to shake up their monotonous lives.

Of course, this becomes a metaphor for how the middle-aged negotiate themes of sexual boredom, polygamy and parenthood. With shades of Williamson’s earlier satirical get-together Don’s Party (1971), the ensemble expertly navigate the promises that “swinging” might do to enliven their character’s sex lives, trapped as they are in close proximity to each other.

This is a lively production with uniformly good performances. Erik Thomson plays Drew, the father trying to improve his relationship with his daughter and provides a solid anchor for the promiscuousness that occurs around him. Ahunim Abebe brings rhythmic physicality to his daughter Cassie as she shocks the father with her own sexual adventures.

The two would-be swinging couples bring verve and vivacity to their performances. Chris Asimos delights as Brian who flips from depression to reinforced post coital vitality. Anna Lindner brings a refreshing groove as she sashays around the cruise ship as Brian’s wife, Michele.

Ansuya Nathan’s Mandy provides a moral counterpoint as her character struggles with the concept of swinging, while her onstage partner Craig, played by Nathan O’Keefe, provides both earnestness and excellent comic timing. At one point during the night O’Keefe toasts his glass too hard and loses his slice of lemon on the floor – which he promptly sucks on to the great amusement of the audience. Clearly an accident, but perhaps worth keeping.

Steady chuckles

Shannon Rush directs with panache, providing some excellent moments of physical vignettes interlaced with the increasing sexual frisson, accompanied by brisk and sharp lighting from Mark Shelton. This in turn is ably supported by the 70s-style guitar soundtrack from composer Andrew Howard and sound designer Patrick Pages-Oliver.

Williamson alludes to the garish décor found aboard cruise ships and Ailsa Paterson’s design doesn’t disappoint. She makes spectacular use of colour and proportion that beckons with promises of a new adventure.

The multi-layered set features tables and chairs with retro 70s/80s feel. The backdrop is a stylised view of the horizon changing with time passing – this is in the form of the Renoir style of brush stroke, neatly linking it to the jigsaw we see being slowly completed.

The play draws steady chuckles and the occasional guffaw as Williamson builds the expectations of the passengers. In the second half, naturalism gives way to farce as the characters experience both comic and life changing reversals. This comes with the moral reckoning of the unintended consequences intercouple sex may bring.

Williamson’s capacity to introduce ideas and return to them in new ways in the dialogue demonstrates his expert craft in constructing witty and challenging dialogue.

This grand old man of Australian theatre shows his continual insight and capacity to satirise the middle-class.

Kudos should also go to outgoing artistic director Mitchell Butel who had the foresight to see the potential in the finished script submitted by Williamson, followed by further development between playwright and company to bring the play to the stage.

The playwright, actors and director gain much from being able to work together over a period of time.

Like the new wave of the 1970s, artists don’t grow in isolation but blossom within a supportive community. In this instance a community Butel has fostered, evident in another fine offering.

The Puzzle is at the State Theatre Company South Australia, Adelaide, until October 12.

Russell Fewster co-ordinates the 2nd year course: State Theatre Masterclass in the Performing Arts Major at the University of South Australia. This is a collaboration between the State Theatre of SA and the University of South Australia.

– ref. With The Puzzle, David Williamson shows his continual capacity to satirise the middle-class – https://theconversation.com/with-the-puzzle-david-williamson-shows-his-continual-capacity-to-satirise-the-middle-class-239195

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate O’Reilly, Director International (Programs & Engagement) | Lecturer School of Nursing and Midwifery, Western Sydney University

After hearing about the experiences of the diverse spectrum of people across Australia, the Senate inquiry into issues relating to menopause and perimenopause has released its final report with 25 recommendations.

The first recommendation is to establish a comprehensive evidence base to better understand the experiences of under-served groups, including LGBTQIA+ people and women with disability.

Gaps in knowledge of menopause can be significant barriers to diagnosis and treatment. More than 85% of people with distressing menopause symptoms do not receive appropriate care. These barriers can be compounded for people, women and those presumed female at birth who have a disability and/or are LGBTQIA+.

Here’s what we know so far about how people from diverse groups experience menopause and the health-care gaps they face.

Remind me, what is menopause?

Generally menopause is experienced across three phases.

Perimenopause (meaning around menopause) starts when hormones, particularly oestrogen, fluctuate.

Menopause occurs when a person has their final menstrual period. These stop because the person’s ovaries no longer release eggs. This definition reflects the different ways menopause can occur (natural menopause, premature ovarian insufficiency, surgery or cancer treatment).

Post-menopause is the stage after menopause marking the end of the reproductive stage.

We experience it differently

Everyone’s experience of menopause is different. People living with disability can experience unique symptoms and challenges.

Autistic people, for example, may describe the experience of menopause as turbulent or catastrophic. Symptoms for this group include intensified sensory stimuli and increased difficulty with:

• executive functioning (planning, concentrating and multitasking)
• recognising or regulating emotions and internal body cues
• communication
• socialising.

As one research participant explained:

[O]ur society doesn’t talk about, address, understand women our age (menopausal onset) in general very well. And so when you have the added dimension of autism […] there’s no resource […] to tell me how to handle that. And there’s no room in society for it either […] we don’t talk about menopause, let alone autistic menopause.

LGBTQIA+ experiences of menopause and ageing are diverse and are often absent in media, health care and research.

For some trans and gender diverse people, menopause can be positive and affirming. For others, the distress can be profound. As one research participant explained:

Personally I was fine (gender-identity-wise) with experiencing periods and pregnancy/childbirth, but I have found menopause much more conceptually difficult. I think in large part because the social narrative is so much about ‘menopausal women’ and also often denigratory or shame-laden.

Barriers to menopause diagnosis and care

LGBTQIA+ people and people with a disability can face assumptions about their gender, sexuality or anatomy which interfere with the care they require.

When people have had prior negative experiences of health care, and have experienced stigmatisation and pathologising of their disability, intersex variations, diverse gender or their sexuality, they may delay accessing care for menopause. Such a delay can result in poorer physical and mental health outcomes.

People with disability can experience earlier menopause with more profound symptoms. And as Women with Disabilities Australia highlighted, when there are pre-existing health concerns, impairments, or other support needs, as is the case with disability, menopause symptom management can be particularly complex.

Women living with a disability in Australia are far less likely to access health care due to stigma and lack of specialist care. They are not always screened for or routinely asked about their reproductive or menopausal health experiences.

Lack of clinician education and provider bias can result in a tendency to either ignore menopausal symptoms or attribute them to mental health concerns. This can lead to misdiagnosis, inappropriate treatment or a complete denial of care for cisgender women and people who live with disability, and LGBTQIA+ folk.

The absence of inclusive, accurate language in health promotion information that does not recognise the diversity of experiences of menopause for people who identify as LGBTQIA+ or live with disability can make them more vulnerable to misinformation and contribute to increased health-care disparities.

What can we do about it?

Policy responses to reducing health-care disparities must be led by those with lived experience, and focus on:

Inclusive and accurate language

Language around menopause should reflect the diverse populations who experience it. Terms such as women and those presumed female at birth can be used to acknowledge trans and gender diverse folk, however all identities should be listed where possible.

Education

Undergraduate and postgraduate university and clinical education on menopause and perimenopause is lacking and should include the lived experience of menopause among diverse groups. This may reduce provider bias and prevent assumptions that could result in missed care and poor health outcomes.

At the individual level, content on menopause should be included in sexual health education programs in schools. This education should reflect the diverse experiences of menopause and use age-appropriate language.

Affirming and specific care

Welcoming clinical environments for LGBTQIA+ people who may have had prior negative experiences can ease past concerns. Peer-led credentialed online support networks can provide alternative and complementary safe spaces to seek care.

For people living with disability specific information for support workers and family carers can help facilitate ongoing affirming care.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How do women with disability and LGBTQIA+ people experience menopause? – https://theconversation.com/how-do-women-with-disability-and-lgbtqia-people-experience-menopause-239485