Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robin van der Sanden, Postdoctoral Fellow, Public Health, SHORE & Whāriki Research Centre, Massey University

Social media and messaging apps such as Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and Messenger are increasingly used to buy and sell drugs in many countries. New Zealand is no exception.

This trend is particularly popular among young people, who are often involved in trading recreational drugs such as cannabis and MDMA. These deals are generally small scale, which means people believe the risks of getting caught and facing legal action are low.

But our new research shows how drug-linked “digital trace data” may lead to unexpected consequences in the future. Young people could see their data sold and used against them by job recruiters, insurance companies and others for decades to come.

Data harvesting is the new normal

Social media companies such as Meta are among the largest and most aggressive harvesters of user data.

These companies collect data on users beyond the confines of their platforms, generating profiles on individuals they can use to target advertising or sell to third-parties.

We interviewed 33 people as part of our study of social media drug trading in New Zealand. Participants had varying experiences buying and selling drugs via apps.

A core question we were interested in was how our interviewees navigated security and digital trace data as part of their drug trading.

Many participants were aware of and concerned about the impact a potential criminal record could have on their lives.

They also felt the collection of their digital trace data by social media companies could become another potential source of exposure to police, who can request their data from these companies. As one participant said:

Facebook probably knows I sell drugs.

But concerns went beyond just law enforcement. Some participants accepted their digital trace data could be used by other groups:

my data has been bought and sold 1,000 times by now, I don’t care what company has it anymore.

Some of our interviewees also reported receiving targeted adverts related to drug use on Meta platforms, ranging from cannabis edibles to rehab clinics.

This raises questions around how drug-linked digital trace data may influence different areas of people’s lives as it’s absorbed into the global data trade.

Increasingly, a person’s digital trace data is being accessed by different groups, from recruitment and insurance companies to law enforcement agencies.

Data may become the new criminal record

Criminal records have long had an impact on employment, housing access, insurance, loans and travel opportunities – also known as “collateral consequences”.

The 2004 Criminal Records Act included the clean slate scheme which allows eligible New Zealanders to request their criminal records be concealed from employers and third parties.

The scheme is meant to give hope to people grappling with the consequences of criminal records for minor offences, often committed in their youth. But critics have argued it doesn’t really work as intended in the digital age.

Today, archived digital content, such as media reports of an offence, often remain easily searched and accessible after official records have been removed.

But the rise of big data and the use of algorithms to analyse digital trace data sets and predict consumer behaviour further complicates this picture. Big data analytics are spreading beyond advertising into other private sectors such as insurance. This means the collateral consequences of criminal records – and any illegal behaviour – are expanding.

Collateral consequences in the age of big data

The fact our research participants viewed themselves as having a low risk of being caught by police is unsurprising, given the small scale of their drug trading.

But the collection and sale of digital trace data as part of social media drug deals means we need to broaden the understanding of collateral consequences beyond criminal records.

The spread of big data and predictive algorithms shows how criminal convictions could become just one of many sources of collateral consequences for individuals.

The targeted advertising of drug-related products and services to some participants in our research highlights how labels such as “drug consumer” may be applied to people based on their digital trace data. There is a high likelihood this classification will feed into other data sets as they are sold on to third parties.

And given the long-term storage of data by many public and private groups, it may well be that data gathered about an individual when they were 18 continues to affect them when they are 35.

These data sets may end up causing collateral consequences similar to criminal records, regardless of whether or not there was a criminal conviction.

The global data trade is likely to affect all of us in some form. But it may have a particularly harsh impact on people whose digital trace data links them to behaviours such as drug use or minor offending such as small-scale drug trading.

Robin van der Sanden recieved funding for this research from Royal Society Te Apārangi Marsden Fund grant (MAU1812).

Chris Wilkins received funding for this research from Royal Society Te Apārangi Marsden Fund grant (MAU1812) and from the Health Research Council (HRC) of New Zealand

Marta Rychert receives funding from the Royal Society Te Apārangi and the Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Monica Barratt has previously received funding from Australia’s National Health and Medical Research Council, National Centre for Clinical Research into Emerging Drugs, and Criminology Research Council, and international funding from New Zealand’s Marsden Fund and U.S. National Institutes of Health.

– ref. ‘Facebook probably knows I sell drugs’ – how young people’s digital footprints can threaten their future prospects – https://theconversation.com/facebook-probably-knows-i-sell-drugs-how-young-peoples-digital-footprints-can-threaten-their-future-prospects-229994

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Westrupp, Associate Professor in Psychology, Deakin University

Some children show signs of perfectionism from early on. Young children might become frustrated and rip up their drawing if it’s not quite right. Older children might avoid or refuse to do homework because they’re afraid to make a mistake.

Perfectionism can lead to children feeling overwhelmed, angry and frustrated, or sad and withdrawn.

And yet perfectionism isn’t considered all bad in our society. Being called a “perfectionist” can be a compliment – code for being a great worker or student, someone who strives to do their best and makes sure all jobs are done well.

These seemingly polarised views reflect the complex nature of perfectionism.

What is perfectionism?

Researchers often separate perfectionism into two parts:

1. perfectionistic strivings: being determined to meet goals and achieve highly

2. perfectionistic concerns: worry about being able to meet high standards, and self-criticism about performance.

While perfectionistic strivings can be positive and lead to high achievement, perfectionistic concerns can lead to a higher chance of children developing eating disorders or anxiety and depression, and having lower academic achievement.

Children and adolescents may experience perfectionism in relation to school work, sport, performance in art or music, or in relation to their own body.

Signs of perfectionistic concerns in children and adolescents may include:

• children being highly critical of themselves

• their reactions to mistakes seeming to be an overreaction

• intense preoccupation and worry over their standards and goals and/or procrastination

• significant change in performance, for example, lower academic results

• irritability and negative emotions, stress and feelings of worthlessness

• social problems with peers and friends, such as bullying and alienating themselves from peers.

A range of genetic, biological and environmental factors influence perfectionism in children. And as a parent, our role is important. While research evidence suggests we can’t successfully increase positive perfectionistic strivings in our children, harsh or controlling parenting can increase negative perfectionistic concerns in children.

Parents who are perfectionistic themselves can also model this to their children.

So, how can we walk the line between supporting our child’s interests and helping them to achieve their potential, without pressuring them and increasing the risk of negative outcomes?

Give them space to grow

A great metaphor is the gardener versus the carpenter described by psychology professor Alison Gopnik.

Instead of trying to build and shape our children by controlling them and their environment (like a carpenter), parents can embrace the spirit of the gardener – providing lots of space for children to grow in their own direction, and nourishing them with love, respect and trust.

We can’t control who they become, so it’s better to sit back, enjoy the ride, and look forward to watching the person they grow into.

However, there is still plenty we can do as parents if our child is showing signs of perfectionism. We can role model to our children how to set realistic goals and be flexible when things change or go wrong, help our children manage stress and negative emotions, and create healthy balance in our family daily routine.

Set realistic goals

People with perfectionistic tendencies will often set unattainable goals. We can support the development of flexibility and realistic goal setting by asking curious questions, for example, “what would you need to do to get one small step closer to this goal?” Identifying upper and lower limits for goals is also helpful.

If your child is fixed on a high score at school, for example, set that as the “upper limit” and then support them to identify a “lower limit” they would find acceptable, even if they are less happy with the outcome.

This strategy may take time and practice to widen the gap between the two, but is useful to create flexibility over time.

If a goal is performance-based and the outcome cannot be guaranteed (for example, a sporting competition), encourage your child to set a personal goal they have more control over.

We can also have conversations about perfectionism from early on, and explain that everyone makes mistakes. In fact, it’s great to model this to our children – talking about our own mistakes and feelings, to show them that we ourselves are not perfect.

Talk aloud practices can help children to see that we “walk the walk”. For example, if you burn dinner you could reflect:

I’m disappointed because I put time and effort into that and it didn’t turn out as I expected. But we all make mistakes. I don’t get things right every time.

Manage stress and negative emotions

Some children and adolescents have a natural tendency towards perfectionism. Rather than trying to control their behaviour, we can provide gentle, loving support.

When our child or adolescent becomes frustrated, angry, sad or overwhelmed, we support them best by helping them to name, express and validate all of their emotions.

Parents may fear that acknowledging their child’s negative emotions will make the emotions worse, but the opposite is true.

Creating healthy balance

The building blocks of healthy child development are strong loving family relationships, good nutrition, creative play and plenty of physical activity, sleep and rest.

Perfectionism is associated with rigidity, and thinking that there is only one correct way to succeed. We can instead encourage flexibility and creativity in children.

Children’s brains grow through play. There is strong research evidence showing that creative, child-led play is associated with higher emotion regulation skills, and a range of cognitive skills, including problem-solving, memory, planning, flexibility and decision-making.

Play isn’t just for young children either – there’s evidence that explorative, creative play of any kind also benefits adolescents and adults.

There is also evidence that getting active outdoors in nature can promote children’s coping skills, emotion regulation and cognitive development.

Elizabeth Westrupp receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Gabriella King previously received a scholarship stipend from Deakin University to support their PhD candidature, which is an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship.

Jade Sheen receives funding from Australian state and government research grants including the Victorian Government Department of Health.

– ref. Parenting a perfectionist? Here’s how you can respond – https://theconversation.com/parenting-a-perfectionist-heres-how-you-can-respond-224509

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Charles, Senior Lecturer in Education (Pedagogy and Curriculum), Deakin University

Students at all-girls’ schools do slightly better in their exams than girls at co-educational schools, according to new research from the United Kingdom.

This goes against previous studies that suggest it does not matter if students attend single-sex or co-ed schools.

What is the study?

This research was done by FFT Education Datalab. This is an independent research team specialising in education policy and statistics.

Using the United Kingdom’s National Pupil Database, the study looked at more than 580,000 students who attended more than 3,200 schools. All schools were government-funded (so were “public schools” in Australian termimology) and were either single sex or co-ed.

Students exam results were examined at the end of Year 11 and the study controlled for differences in schools and pupil characteristics, such as socioeconomic disadvantage or high levels of students who learned English as a second language.

What did the research find?

The research found girls who went to all-girls’ schools recorded a small improvement in their exam results compared to their peers in co-educational schools.

This is after adjusting their results to account for factors such as disadvantage.

The gap is small – around one month’s progress for each of the students. But it is noticeable.

Yet for boys’ schools, there wasn’t any difference in results between single sex and co-ed schools.

Why is this important?

While the UK study was not peer-reviewed, this finding is important because it contradicts other recent large-scale research, which has found no statistically significant academic advantage to single-sex schooling.

For example, a 2022 analysis of Irish students found no significant performance gaps between co-educational and single-sex schools.

A 2014 meta-analysis (an overview of many studies) across 21 countries also found no high-quality evidence of benefits to single-sex schooling.

What about Australia?

This new research plays into the renewed debate over single sex schooling in Australia in recent months.

This follows some prestigious all boys’ schools announcing moves to co-education (and some former students crying about the change). It also follows multiple examples of sexism and misogyny by male students at both all-boys and co-ed schools.

There is also a growing body of Australian research examining toxic behaviour of boys towards their female teachers and peers.

So the UK research could further entrench a perception girls are better off in single-sex schools.

This perception has a long history. Many girls schools were set up in the 1800s by pioneering headmistresses such as English educator Frances Buss, who believed in girls’ equal rights to education and girls’ schools were the best places to provide this.

Girls’ schools today retain an image of feminist progressivism, promoting the idea that “girls can achieve anything”. The perception is supported by some research evidence that girls in single-sex schools are more likely to feel confident in traditionally male-dominated subjects such as STEM.

What needs to be done?

This UK study raises many questions. Are girls indeed better off on their own? Are there aspects of single-sex education that could be applied in co-ed environments? How do we ensure that all schools are schools of choice for girls, including coeducational schools?

We can investigate these questions further by doing research with families to better understand their perceptions and experiences of single-sex schools today. We can also do more research into the impact of programs such as Respectful Relationships, which have been introduced to build positive gender cultures in schools.

Lucinda McKnight receives funding from the Australian Research Council via DECRA grant DE220100515.

Claire Charles does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New research suggests girls in single-sex schools do slightly better in exams than girls in co-ed environments – https://theconversation.com/new-research-suggests-girls-in-single-sex-schools-do-slightly-better-in-exams-than-girls-in-co-ed-environments-230425

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mike W. Morley, Associate Professor and Director, Flinders Microarchaeology Laboratory, Flinders University

Humans arrived in Australia at least 65,000 years ago, according to archaeological evidence. These pioneers were part of an early wave of people travelling eastwards from Africa, through Eurasia, and ultimately into Australia and New Guinea.

But this was only one of many waves of migration in the story of the human colonisation of the globe. These waves were probably driven by climate change and the ability of groups to adapt to a wide range of environments.

In new research published in Nature Communications, we have found evidence that a large wave of migration reached the island of Timor not long after 50,000 years ago. Our work at Laili rock shelter suggests the people who first reached Australia some 65,000 years ago came via New Guinea, while Timor and other southern islands were only colonised by a later wave of settlers.

Potential routes to Australia

Timor has long been regarded as a potential stepping-stone island for the first human migration between mainland Southeast Asia and Australia and New Guinea. At the time of these ancient migrations, sea levels were lower, so many of what are now islands in Southeast Asia were joined to the mainland in a region known as Sunda, and Australia and New Guinea were joined together in a single continent known as Sahul.

The islands between Sunda to the west and Sahul to the east are known as Wallacaea. These islands have never been connected to each other or the mainland, owing to the deep channels that separate them. This has meant that even when sea levels were much lower than today they remained as islands.

The search for evidence of early migrations on Timor has been hampered by a lack of suitable sediments in caves and rock shelters.

However, we found a unique source of evidence at Laili rock shelter, overlooking the Laleia river in central-north Timor-Leste. Unlike other sites in the region, Laili preserved deep sediments dating between 59,000 and 54,000 years ago which contained no sign of human presence.

On top of these layers we found clear signs of human arrival, in the dirt occurring about 44,000 years ago. This provides clear evidence that while humans were initially absent from the site and the local landscape, they subsequently arrived in what must have been significant numbers.

From other research, we also know there is evidence of humans arriving at other sites in Timor-Leste and nearby Flores Island between 47,000 and 45,000 years ago. Taken together, all this evidence strongly supports the view that humans only arrived in this region around this time.

Evidence in the dirt

Our analysis of the sediment layers at Laili suggests humans arrived in a deliberate and large-scale colonisation effort, rather than ad-hoc settlement by a small population. This is clearly seen in the earliest traces of occupation, which include hearths, dense accumulations of stone artefacts, and the remains of a diet rich in fish and shellfish.

We used a technique called micromorphology to study the layers of sediment under the microscope.

We could see the sediment from before the time of occupation did not carry signs of human presence. But when humans moved in to the site, many traces of human occupation appeared abruptly, including compressed trampled layers caused by the passage of people on the shelter floor.

Island hopping to Sahul

Our findings may prompt a re-evaluation of the route and timing of the earliest human migration into Sahul. They also show movement to the islands was an ongoing process rather than a single event, with occupation of the southern islands occurring thousands of years after the initial settlement of Australia.

The intensity of the initial occupation we found at Laili suggests this migration may have been large enough to overwhelm previous migrations in the islands of Southeast Asia and Australasia.

The earlier dispersal waves, including the people using the ancient Madjebebe rock shelter in Australia, may have been small numbers of people coming from a different route further north via New Guinea. The later wave of dispersal through the Wallacean Islands may have formed a much more significant arrival of humans on Sahul.

The absence of human occupation on Timor before 50,000 years ago indicates that humans arrived on the island later than previously supposed. This supports the theory that humans first arrived in Australia via New Guinea rather than Timor.

This path is less direct, but it may be explained by the fact the southern islands including Timor have far fewer land-dwelling animals to eat. Early colonists would have needed the flexibility to live on fish and shellfish. So moving into these southern islands could have been more challenging than the northern islands which had more medium to large land animals.

Mike W. Morley receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).

Kasih Norman receives funding from the Leakey Foundation and Rock Art Australia.

Sue O’Connor receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).

Ceri Shipton and Shimona Kealy do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A rare find in ancient Timorese mud may rewrite the history of human settlement in Australasia – https://theconversation.com/a-rare-find-in-ancient-timorese-mud-may-rewrite-the-history-of-human-settlement-in-australasia-228391

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter McDonald, Honorary Professor of Demography, Centre for Health Policy, The University of Melbourne

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has suggested the level of Australia’s permanent migration program be reduced from 185,000 – as proposed by the government in the budget – to 145,000. This is a significant reduction.

His rationale is extremely simple: fewer migrants means fewer people needing housing amid a housing crisis.

As tempting as this logic may be, it’s misleading to suggest issues around migration or housing are easy to fix. Far from it.

Instead, these measures could be counterproductive, leaving us with fewer people to fill important skill shortages and ultimately doing little to manage population growth.

Bidding for skills

Under the current system, there are two main streams of migration: family and skilled. Dutton’s announcement has prompted questions about which sorts of migrants would be cut.

As the number of new permanent residents in the family stream is dominated by the partners and dependent children of Australian citizens who have a legal right to Australian residence, Dutton’s proposed cut would have to come overwhelmingly from the skilled stream.

At present, the leading occupations in the skilled stream are nurses, teachers, IT workers and engineers. These are all occupations in high demand. If intake of these professions were cut, employers would need to look for alternative sources of people with these skills. This would be bad news for New Zealand, as Australian state governments would likely target its nurses and teachers.

In addition, state and territory governments would engage in a bidding war for people with these skills. The effect of this would be no decrease in housing demand in the states that won this war and empty houses in the states that lost.

This is not a solution to the housing crisis, which is due mainly to lack of adequate supply.

Also, more than 50% of people granted permanent residence are already living in Australia. Their conversion to permanent residence onshore does not free up housing.

Temporary vs permanent

For the past 18 years, the level of Australia’s permanent migration program has fluctuated in the narrow range of 160,000 to 195,000 under seven different prime ministers, beginning with John Howard. This has proven to be a successful, bipartisan policy, leading to the slowing of population ageing, maintenance of a high employment to population ratio (fewer dependants for each worker), and the provision of skills needed for economic development.

Much of the concern about immigration levels has arisen because net overseas migration, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, hit 518,000 in 2022–23. This is an extraordinarily high number by historical standards.

It is not well understood that almost all this net movement (90%) related to temporary residents, not permanent residents. This is important because temporary residents differ in many ways from permanent residents.

Excluding tourists and New Zealand citizens, there are around 1.7 million temporary residents in Australia. They are not eligible for most government services including Medicare, the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, state education, domestic tertiary fees and many more. Temporary residents do not buy houses.

While temporary residents are in the housing rental market, most are mainly in dedicated student or backpacker housing, or live with a higher number of people per dwelling than the permanent population.

The differences between temporary and permanent residents are not taken into account in the calculations made for planning documents such as government budgets and intergenerational reports. It is primarily the permanent population that contributes to economic development and productivity. Planning and understanding would be greatly enhanced if the Bureau of Statistics divided the estimated resident population into permanent and temporary components.

Temporary arrivals in 2022–23 were about 200,000 higher than in 2018–19, the last pre-COVID year. This was due to the COVID-induced backlog of students and working holidaymakers wanting to come to Australia all arriving in the same year, along with the normal annual intake.

Temporary departures were about 100,000 fewer in 2022–23 than in 2028–19 due to an explosion of people switching between visas (known as “visa hopping”) onshore.

In 2022–23, an astounding 192,000 people on student and graduate visas hopped to the temporary employment visa (408), which gave them an additional two years’ residence. Eligibility for the 408 visa was extended during COVID to provide a means of employment for temporary residents stuck in Australia, but this figure was for the period after COVID.

In March 2024, around 40,000 former working holidaymakers were on the 408 visa or a bridging visa, the first time working holidaymakers have joined the visa-hopping bandwagon. If these visa hoppers had left Australia in 2022–23 rather than visa hopping, the net migration outcome would have been very different.

What about international students?

Both major parties have proposed caps on Australia’s international student intake.

The number of people on student visas in Australia at the end of March 2024 was only marginally higher than the pre-COVID peak. And the present number is high likely because of the backlog of enrolments created by COVID border closures.

Dealing with dodgy educational institutions that exploit international students is important, as is the genuine student test introduced by Labor, but capping numbers attending respectable universities is unnecessary and will likely have negative consequences. There could be staff reductions, the dropping of courses and a reduction in the level of university research.

So what could be done to manage migration more effectively?

The government could start by maintaining the permanent migration program at its 18-year average level. Instead of cutting from the overall intake, severely curtailing visa hopping by accepting fewer visa applications from people already in the country would better manage population growth.

This, combined with leaving international student intake as it is and cracking down on dodgy educational organisations, would be more useful than the current proposals from both major parties.

The Bureau of Statistics should also divide the estimated resident population into permanent and temporary components. This data would help create better migration planning and policy.

Peter McDonald has received funds from the Australian Research Council related to studies of migration. He has also received funds in the past from the various forms of the Commonwealth Department of Immigration, but not for more than ten years.

– ref. Peter Dutton wants to cut migration for the sake of housing. Here’s why that’s not a good idea – https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-wants-to-cut-migration-for-the-sake-of-housing-heres-why-thats-not-a-good-idea-230298

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ruth Morgan, Associate Professor of History, Australian National University

Last month, the leaders of the G7 declared their commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest. Closer to home, the Albanese government recently introduced legislation to establish a Net Zero Economy Authority, promising it will catalyse investment in clean energy technologies in the push to reach net zero.

Pledges to achieve net zero emissions over the coming decades have proliferated since the United Nation’s 2021 Glasgow climate summit, as governments declare their commitments to meeting the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming under 1.5°C. But what exactly is “net zero”, and where did this concept come from?

Stabilising greenhouse gases

In the early 1990s, scientists and governments were negotiating the key article of the UN’s 1992 climate change framework: “the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [human-caused] interference with the climate system”. How to achieve that stabilisation – let alone define “dangerous” climate change – has occupied climate scientists and negotiators ever since.

From the outset, scientists and governments recognised reducing greenhouse gas emissions was only one side of the equation. Finding ways to compensate or offset emissions would also be necessary.

The subsequent negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol backed the role of forests in the global carbon cycle as carbon sinks.

It also provided the means for well-forested developing countries to participate in the emerging carbon offset market, and to play their part in reaching the carbon accounting goal of “carbon neutrality”. Under those terms, the industrialised countries subject to the Kyoto Protocol could pay developing countries to offset their own emissions as a form of low-cost mitigation.

The Kyoto Protocol was unable to curtail soaring global greenhouse gas emissions, and a successor agreement appeared uncertain. As a result, interest turned in the late 2000s to the possibility of using highly controversial geoengineering techniques to remove greenhouse gas emissions. These proposals included sucking carbon dioxide out of the sky so the atmosphere would trap less heat, or reflecting sunlight away from the planet to reduce heat absorption. The focus on carbon sinks, whether through forests or direct air capture, would appear again in the idea of net zero.

Temperature targets

By this point, policymakers and advocates were shifting away from emissions reductions goals (such as Australia’s unusual first Kyoto target to limit emissions to 108% of 1990 emissions by 2012).

Instead, temperature targets became more popular, such as limiting warming to no more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels. The European Union had already adopted the 2°C threshold in 1996 and argued successfully for its relevance as a long-term objective for climate action.

What changed was scientists now had better ways of tracking how long carbon dioxide emissions would stay in the atmosphere, allowing better projections of our carbon budget.

These findings allowed the IPCC’s 2014 report to clearly state limiting warming to below 2°C would require “near zero emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century”.

By this time, London-based environmental lawyer and climate negotiator Farhana Yamin had also set her sights on net zero by 2050. For Yamin, translating the 1.5°C ambition into climate negotiations meant focusing on net zero: “In your lifetime, emissions have to go to zero. That’s a message people understand.”

The concept of net zero offered a simple metric to assess mitigation efforts and hold parties legally accountable – an instrument she and colleagues proposed for the negotiation of a new legally binding agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol.

By late 2014, net zero had gained traction, appearing for the first time at a UN climate conference, the UN’s Emissions Gap Report, and in a speech by World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim that stressed “we must achieve zero net emissions of greenhouse gases before 2100”.

Zero in Paris

These efforts culminated in the 2015 Paris Agreement, which in addition to its well-known temperature targets of 1.5°C and 2°C, also added a complementary goal:

To undertake rapid [emissions] reductions … so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century.

This is what “net zero” means – a “balance” between carbon emissions and carbon sinks. It was subsequently enshrined in the IPCC’s Special Report on the importance of keeping warming under 1.5°C, in which 195 member states agreed to get to net zero emissions by 2050.

Slogan for greenwashing?

So, what’s next for net zero? Countries such as India have questioned what it means for fairness and equity between developing and developed nations, Instead, they favour the well-established approach of “common but differentiated responsibility” to mitigation. This justifies India’s aim to reach net zero emissions by 2070, as developed nations should lead the way and provide developing countries with funds and technologies necessary to support their mitigation ambitions.

The UN, by contrast, has warned the flexibility of net zero as a concept could make it a mere slogan for greenwashing by corporations and other non-state entities rather than a concrete objective.

As the chair of the UN’s High Level Experts group put it:

It’s not just advertising, bogus net-zero claims drive up the cost that ultimately everyone would pay. Including people not in this room, through huge impacts, climate migration and their very lives.

Given the chasm between pledges and practice documented in the 2023 UN Emissions Gap Report, there is a very real likelihood we will shoot past the temperature limits of the Paris Agreement.

Fossil fuel treaty

Net zero isn’t the only approach to tackle climate change. Other concepts are growing in popularity.

For instance, optimists say the temperature “overshoot” we’re on track for could be tackled with a “drawdown” of carbon emissions if we use “carbon dioxide removal” or “negative emissions technologies” such as carbon capture and storage, soil carbon sequestration, and mass tree planting and reforestation.

But beware: the IPCC’s Special Report cautioned that while some of these options might be technologically possible, they have not been tested on a large scale.

Can these untested technologies be relied on to halt and reverse the chaos likely to be unleashed by dangerous levels of global heating?

What does overshoot mean for the low-lying island nations who rallied around “1.5°C to stay alive”?

Momentum has been building for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty since 2022, when Vanuatu called on the UN General Assembly to phase out the use of fossil fuels.

Such a treaty, Vanuatu President Nikenike Vurobaravu said, would “enable a global just transition for every worker, community and nation with fossil fuel dependence”.

At the Dubai climate conference late last year, held in the wake of the International Energy Agency’s revised Net Zero Roadmap, the negotiations culminated in a first for the UNFCCC – an explicit statement endorsing:

transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.

Will net zero become more than hot air? That remains to be seen. While the science behind the concept is broadly sound, the politics of achieving net zero are a work in progress.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the point where they are zeroed out by carbon sinks by 2050 requires just and credible planning. We must prioritise the phase-out of fossil fuels sooner rather than later.

Ruth Morgan receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She was a Lead Author (Working Group 2) of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

– ref. What is ‘Net Zero’, anyway? A short history of a monumental concept – https://theconversation.com/what-is-net-zero-anyway-a-short-history-of-a-monumental-concept-229901

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pamela Hanrahan, Emerita Professor, UNSW Business School, UNSW Sydney

Large businesses will have to publicly disclose detailed information about what they are doing to reduce carbon emissions and other climate-related financial information under legislation before federal parliament.

Under the new legislation companies will have to include a separate sustainability report in their annual report.

And, as with the financial component of the annual report, the sustainability document will be formally adopted by the company’s board.

The UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in 2021 (known as COP26) identified mandatory climate-related financial disclosure as necessary for combating climate change.

Disclosure makes a company’s climate-related risks, opportunities, metrics and targets transparent to its investors and other stakeholders.

The planned laws do not change what companies are required to do in response to climate change, but they allow regulators and stakeholders to monitor the company’s progress towards internationally agreed net-zero targets.

For that reason, the disclosures companies produce are likely to be closely scrutinised.

What will the disclosure laws look like?

The specific – and lengthy – content requirements for the sustainability report are being developed by the Australian Accounting Standards Board in line with global sustainability reporting standards produced after COP26.

Companies will have to disclose information about their scope 1, 2 and 3 greenhouse gas emissions.

Scope 1 emissions are those produced by a company’s own operations and scope 2 emissions are from the production of the energy it uses to do business. Scope 3 are the emissions produced by its supply chains, for example in the production of materials from suppliers or from the activities of businesses it funds.

To account for their scope 3 emissions, companies preparing sustainability reports will need detailed information from the businesses with which they deal.

Australia already has a regime – known as the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Scheme – that requires companies with a big climate impact to report their emissions, energy production and energy consumption to the government each year.

The new sustainability reporting requirement is wider than this, and will apply much more broadly.

Which businesses will be affected?

When the new laws are fully implemented, they will apply to all companies covered by the existing NGER scheme, all investment trusts and funds (including superannuation funds) with assets over A$5 billion, and other companies that meet two out of three proposed size thresholds. The proposed thresholds are: assets above $25 million, revenue above $50 million and 100 or more employees.

For now, the sustainability report will focus on climate-related issues. But the legislation flags the possibility of adding other environmental disclosures (for example, covering nature and biodiversity impacts) in later years.

In first few years, the disclosure laws will be enforced by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) only, and private plaintiffs including climate advocates will be locked out of courts.

If the company’s disclosure is misleading, and ASIC can demonstrate the company didn’t take all reasonable steps to ensure it was accurate, the company can face civil penalties. These, for very large companies, can run to hundreds of millions of dollars.

Statements about the future will be taken to be misleading unless the company can demonstrate reasonable grounds for making them.

Once the transition arrangements expire, companies can also expect shareholders and climate advocates to be active in the courts to punish misleading disclosure.

New pressure on company directors

Making the sustainability report a component of the annual report – rather than a separate document – has important legal consequences for company directors.

For the first few years of the new reporting regime, the directors will have to declare whether, in their opinion, the company has taken reasonable steps to ensure the sustainability report accords with the law.

After that, they will be required to declare whether, in their opinion, the report complies with the sustainability reporting standards set by the Australian Accounting Standards Board and accurately includes all required disclosures.

Directors have a statutory duty to ensure the company meets the legal requirements for annual reporting, a duty that will extend to the sustainability report.

Also, the laws that make directors personally liable for defects in mandatory corporate disclosure documents will apply.

These provisions, which can be enforced by ASIC, carry a maximum civil penalty for individuals of $1,565,000.

Will the new disclosure laws change sustainability governance?

For many decades, board members have been expected to take personal responsibility for what their company says in its financial report.

They cannot simply leave it to the management team or the auditors to ensure the disclosure is accurate. As a result, the financial information is carefully reviewed and directors ask detailed questions about the data and assumptions on which it based.

The financial report provides stakeholders with a clear picture of the company’s financial viability and performance. But it also forces the board to pay close attention these issues.

Under the new laws directors will have personal responsibility for what the company says in the sustainability report. Designing the law this way will force directors to pay the same close attention to the company’s climate-related disclosures.

They will need to understand and question the data and assumptions that underpin the disclosure.

This will affect the company’s broader governance, by elevating sustainability issues in boardroom discussions and bringing climate-related risks, opportunities, targets and metrics closer to the centre of boardroom deliberations.

It should make directors much more aware of – and sensitive to – their company’s climate impact.

Pamela Hanrahan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Businesses and directors could face multi-million dollar penalties if they fail to disclose their climate impact – https://theconversation.com/businesses-and-directors-could-face-multi-million-dollar-penalties-if-they-fail-to-disclose-their-climate-impact-229889

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan Trudeau, Professor of Geography, Macalester College

What makes a city a good place to live? Practical features are important, such as well-maintained streets, good public transit and reliable trash collection. So are amenities that make cities attractive and interesting, such as museums and public parks. Access to green space is especially valuable for residents who may not be able to travel easily beyond city limits.

On May 22, 2024, the nonprofit Trust for Public Land released its annual ParkScore report which ranks U.S. cities based on the quality of their parks. Beyond tallying how many parks a city has, the rankings also consider the share of residents who live within 10 minutes’ walk of a park. This recognizes that in the U.S. and other wealthy countries, affluent white neighborhoods often have more parks than low-income areas and communities of color.

Access is important, but I believe making people feel included and welcome is equally important. If parks do this well, people will be more willing to use them.

I am an urban geographer and study how parks affect social interaction in diverse communities. My students and I are examining how people interact with the built environment of Phalen Regional Park in St. Paul, Minnesota, to understand what leads people to experience this park as a welcoming and inclusive space. I believe Phalen Park offers useful strategies that other cities can emulate.

Something for everyone

Phalen Park is among St. Paul’s largest parks, covering 494 acres (2 square kilometers) – three times the size of Disneyland. It includes a 198-acre lake encircled by a trail, watercraft rentals, scenic views, a golf course, an amphitheater, sculptures, a playground and two pavilions for picnics, performances and other gatherings.

One important feature is St. Paul’s sole public beach with lifeguard services. Many low-income households around the park don’t have access to places where they can swim for free. Providing a safe place to swim helps reduce this inequity.

People in the Twin Cities use parks in a variety of ways. For example, Asian American park visitors are 2.5 times more likely than others to attend family events in parks, while Black park visitors are 1.75 times more likely than others to go fishing there. In surveys and interviews I have conducted, people from many social groups report that they use Phalen Park because there are so many things to do there and there are diverse groups of people in the park.

Community organizations use the park’s green spaces and shoreline for year-round public events and festivals. The park hosts cultural performances, community gatherings such as movie screenings, and regional events such as freshwater stewardship activities and dragon boat races.

These free events cater to many different age groups, attract diverse crowds and promote cultural learning and positive interracial encounters. Phalen Park is one of the most-visited parks in the Twin Cities, with an estimated 1.1 million visits in 2021.

Investing in parks is good for cities

There are many practical reasons for cities to invest in public parks. Studies have found that visiting green spaces reduces stress and that people who live within half a mile of a public park tend to get more exercise than those who lack access to safe places for walking, biking and recreation. Public parks provide spaces where people can gather for free, or sometimes for a nominal permit fee.

However, it’s important for visitors to feel safe and welcome. Due to a legacy of racial segregation, and to uneven investment in parks, that doesn’t always happen.

In Chicago, for example, white and Hispanic groups have clashed over using certain segments of The 606, an elevated park that follows the path of an old rail line. These encounters have led some Hispanic visitors to avoid using parts of the park. In turn, white visitors say this distancing makes them feel suspicious of groups of Hispanic people in the park.

A visitor mix that looks like St. Paul

The Twin Cities typically perform well in ParkScore ratings – for 2024, Minneapolis ranks second among U.S. cities, followed by Saint Paul – but there’s still room to improve. The Trust for Public Land has identified significant differences in park access between people of color and white residents in Minneapolis and St. Paul. Neighborhoods in St. Paul where people of color are the predominant group have access to 24% less park space per person than the city’s average neighborhood.

St. Paul has a diverse population that measures 54.3% white, 18.3% Asian, 15.6% Black and 8.6% Hispanic, according to 2023 census estimates. Neighborhoods within a mile of Lake Phalen Park are comparably mixed, with 34.8% white residents, 34.4% Asian residents, 14% Black residents and 11.2% identifying as Hispanic.

I analyzed data from StreetLightData.com, which gathers mobile phone user data, to study visitor demographics at Phalen Park from 2019 to 2021. During that time, 54.8% of visitors were white, 23.9% were Asian, 11.8% were Black and 8.9% identified as Hispanic. These findings show that the park attracts a mix of people that mirrors St. Paul’s demographics.

What else would increase the park’s appeal as a place for diverse communities to gather? Visitors say they want more restroom facilities in the park and want them to be cleaner. Restroom availability affects how long people will stay at a park or whether they will even come. Perceptions that a park’s restrooms are dirty threaten visitors’ sense of safety and welcome.

People also want clearer guidance about park amenities, such as signs explaining public art and offering multilingual directions for using the beach, boat ramps and trails. Addressing these concerns can help reduce uncertainty and foster a sense of safety and belonging.

Expanding or improving paved trails can reduce conflicts over common spaces, such as clashes between cyclists and pedestrians. The master plan for Phalen Regional Park calls for widening the park’s trails and separating walking from biking. These changes have occurred in a few locations but not throughout the park.

Parks are like a city’s living room. Designing, building and managing them well makes people more likely to go there and stay a while. Investing resources to make parks attractive to different groups and inviting for everyone is a sure way to boost inclusion. As city leaders digest this year’s ParkScore ratings, Phalen Park offers a model for other diverse urban communities.

Dan Trudeau is a volunteer member of the Minnesota Parks and Trails Legacy Advisory Committee, which works with government agencies that invest in and manage state and regional parks and trails.

– ref. Successful city parks make diverse communities feel safe and welcome − this Minnesota park is an example – https://theconversation.com/successful-city-parks-make-diverse-communities-feel-safe-and-welcome-this-minnesota-park-is-an-example-226869

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia

A little bit of turbulence is a common experience for air travellers. Severe incidents are rare – but when they occur they can be deadly.

The recent Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 from London to Singapore shows the danger. An encounter with extreme turbulence during normal flight left one person dead from a presumed heart attack and several others badly injured. The flight diverted to land in Bangkok so the severely injured passengers could receive hospital treatment.

Air turbulence can happen anywhere, but is far more common on some routes than on others.

Climate change is expected to boost the chances of air turbulence, and make it more intense. In fact, some research indicates turbulence has already worsened over the past few decades.

Where does turbulence happen?

Nearly every flight experiences turbulence in one form or another.

If an aircraft is taking off or landing behind another aircraft, the wind generated by the engine and wingtips of the lead aircraft can cause “wake turbulence” for the one behind.

Close to ground level, there may be turbulence due to strong winds associated with weather patterns moving through the area near an airport. At higher altitudes, there may be wake turbulence again (if flying close to another aircraft), or turbulence due to updraughts or downdraughts from a thunderstorm.

Read more:
What is air turbulence?

Another kind of turbulence that occurs at higher altitudes is harder to predict or avoid. So-called “clear-air turbulence” is invisible, as the name suggests. It is often caused by warmer air rising into cooler air, and is generally expected to get worse due to climate change.

At the most basic level turbulence is the result of two or more wind events colliding and creating eddies, or swirls of disrupted airflow.

It often occurs near mountain ranges, as wind flowing over the terrain accelerates upward.

Turbulence also often occurs at the edges of the jet streams. These are narrow bands of strong, high-altitude winds circling the globe. Aircraft often travel in the jet streams to get a speed boost – but when entering or leaving the jet stream, there may be some turbulence as it crosses the boundary with the slower winds outside.

What are the most turbulent routes?

It is possible to map turbulence patterns over the whole world. Airlines use these maps to plan in advance for alternate airports or other essential contingencies.

While turbulence changes with weather conditions, some regions and routes are more prone to it than others. As you can see from the list below, the majority of the most turbulent routes travel close to mountains.

In Australia, the highest average turbulence in 2023 occurred on the Brisbane to Sydney route, followed by Melbourne to Sydney and Brisbane to Melbourne.

Climate change may increase turbulence

How will climate change affect the future of aviation?

A study published last year found evidence of large increases in clear-air turbulence between 1979 and 2020. In some locations severe turbulence increased by as much as 55%.

In 2017, a different study used climate modelling to project that clear-air turbulence may be four times as common as it used to be by 2050, under some climate change scenarios.

What can be done about turbulence?

What can be done to mitigate turbulence? Technology to detect turbulence is still in the research and development phase, so pilots use the knowledge they have from weather radar to determine the best plan to avoid weather patterns with high levels of moisture directly ahead of their flight path.

Weather radar imagery shows the pilots where the most intense turbulence can be expected, and they work with air traffic control to avoid those areas. When turbulence is encountered unexpectedly, the pilots immediately turn on the “fasten seatbelt” sign and reduce engine thrust to slow down the plane. They will also be in touch with air traffic control to find better conditions either by climbing or descending to smoother air.

Ground-based meteorological centres can see weather patterns developing with the assistance of satellites. They provide this information to flight crews in real time, so the crew knows the weather to expect throughout their flight. This can also include areas of expected turbulence if storms develop along the intended flight route.

It seems we are heading into more turbulent times. Airlines will do all they can to reduce the impact on planes and passengers. But for the average traveller, the message is simple: when they tell you to fasten your seatbelt, you should listen.

Doug Drury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Are some routes more prone to air turbulence? Will climate change make it worse? Your questions answered – https://theconversation.com/are-some-routes-more-prone-to-air-turbulence-will-climate-change-make-it-worse-your-questions-answered-230666

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University

The Singapore Airlines turbulence incident that has sadly left one person dead and others hospitalised has made many of us think about the risks of air travel.

We’ll hear more in coming days about how the aircraft came to drop so suddenly on its route from London to Singapore earlier this week, injuring passengers and crew, before making an emergency landing in Thailand.

But thankfully, these types of incidents are rare, and much less-common than injuries from other types of transport.

So why do we sometimes think the risk of getting injured while travelling by plane is higher than it really is?

How common are turbulence injuries?

Turbulence is caused by the irregular movement of air, leading to passengers and crew experiencing abrupt sideways and vertical jolts.

In the case of the Singapore Airlines flight, this type of turbulence is thought to be a severe example of “clear-air turbulence”, which can occur without warning. There are several other types.

About 25 in-flight turbulence injuries are reported to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau each year, although it is thought many more are un-reported. Some of these reported injuries are serious, including broken bones and head injuries. Passengers being thrown up and out of their seat during turbulence is one of the most common type of head injury on a plane.

Other injuries from turbulence are caused by contact with flying laptops, or other unsecured items.

In one example of clear-air turbulence that came without warning, cabin crew, passengers and meal trolleys hit the ceiling, and landed heavily back on the floor. Serious injuries included bone fractures, lacerations, neck and back strains, a dislocated shoulder and shattered teeth. Almost all of those seriously injured did not have their seat belts fastened.

But we need to put this into perspective. In the year to January 2024, there were more than 36 million passengers on international flights to Australia. In the year to February 2024, there were more than 58 million passengers on domestic flights.

So while such incidents grab the headlines, they are exceedingly rare.

Why do we think flying is riskier than it is?

When we hear about this recent Singapore Airlines incident, it’s entirely natural to have a strong emotional reaction. We might have imagined the terror we might feel if we were on the aircraft at the time.

But our emotional response alters our perception of the risk and leads us to think these rare incidents are more common than they really are.

There is a vast body of literature addressing the numerous factors that influence how individuals perceive risk and the cognitive biases we are all subject to that mislead us.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman covers them in his bestselling book Thinking, Fast and Slow.

He describes the way we respond to risks is not rational, but driven by emotion. Kahneman also highlights the fact that our brains are not wired to make sense of extremely small risks. So these types of risks – such as the chance of serious injury or death from in-flight turbulence – are hard for us to make sense of.

The more unusual an event is, and this was a very unusual event, Kahneman says the more impact it makes on our psyche and the more likely we are to overestimate the risk.

Of course, the more unusual the event, the more likely it is for it to be in the media, amplifying this effect.

Similarly, the easier it is to imagine an event, the more it affects our perception and the more likely we are to respond to an event as if it were much more likely to occur.

How can we make sense of the risk?

One way to make sense of activities with small, hard-to-understand risks is by comparing their risks to the risks of more familiar activities.

If we do this, the data shows very clearly that it is much more risky to drive a car or ride a motorbike than to travel by plane.

While events such as the Singapore Airlines incident are devastating and stir up lots of emotions, it’s important to recognise how our emotions can mislead us to over-estimate the risk of this happening again, or to us.

Apart from the stress and anxiety this provokes, overestimating the risks of particular activities may lead us to make bad decisions that actually put us at greater risk of harm.

Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How risky is turbulence on a plane? How worried should I be? – https://theconversation.com/how-risky-is-turbulence-on-a-plane-how-worried-should-i-be-230665

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Queensland state election will be held in October. A Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from February to May from a sample of 947, gave the Liberal National Party 43% of the primary vote (up six since September to December), Labor 26% (down seven), the Greens 13% (up one), One Nation 8% (up one), independents 8% (up one) and others 2% (steady).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party figure, but The Poll Bludger estimated the LNP would lead in this poll by 56–44.

A Queensland YouGov poll in April gave the LNP a 56–44 lead and a March Newspoll gave them a 54–46 lead. So this poll is another indicating Labor is headed for a heavy defeat in October.

Labor Premier Steven Miles had a net likeability of -15, compared with former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s -17 in December. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability improved five points to +14. Crisafulli led Miles by 39–28 as preferred premier (39–34 against Palaszczuk in December).

Victorian Labor also slumps

A Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the federal Resolve polls in mid-April and mid-May from a sample of 1,104, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (up two since March), Labor 28% (down five), the Greens 13% (steady), independents 16% (up four) and others 6% (down one).

Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated this poll would be a 50–50 tie after preferences, a three-point gain for the Coalition since March.

The 16% “independent” vote is very likely exaggerated, as a suitable independent won’t stand in all seats at a general election. The surge for independents likely reflects disgruntled former Labor voters who currently say they will vote independent but may change their minds by the next election, which isn’t due until 2026.

Labor Premier Jacinta Allan led the Liberals’ John Pesutto as preferred premier by 31–26 (34–25 in March). Treasurer Tim Pallas had a 38–26 poor over good rating. By 52–32, voters thought taking away funding from major infrastructure projects promised at the last election was a broken promise over a practical change.

Federal Freshwater poll remains tied

A national Freshwater poll, conducted May 17–19 from a sample of 1,000, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from April. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up one), 14% Greens (up one) and 14% for all Others (down two).

These primary votes suggest an increased two party vote for Labor that was presumably lost in rounding. Freshwater has been leaning to the Coalition this term relative to other pollsters.

Albanese’s net approval was down two to -9, with 45% unfavourable and 37% favourable. Dutton’s net approval was steady at -9. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 46–37 (45–39 in April).

The Coalition had a three-point lead over Labor on cost of living and a ten-point lead on economic management, but Labor improved on both since April by three to four points.

On the effect of the May 14 budget on household finances, 24% thought they would be better off, 46% no different and 23% worse off. On the budget’s effect on interest rates, 39% thought they would increase, 28% have no effect and 11% decrease.

Essential poll: Coalition retains narrow lead

A national Essential poll, conducted May 15–19 from a sample of 1,149, gave the Coalition a 47–46 lead including undecided, unchanged from early May. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 10% Greens (down three), 8% One Nation (up one), 1% UAP (steady), 8% for all Others (up one) and 6% undecided (down one).

By 64–27, voters did not think the budget would make a meaningful difference on cost of living. On the A$300 electricity bill rebate, 60% thought only those on low and middle incomes should receive it, 35% all households and 5% nobody.

On government intervention in the economy, 48% said the government should intervene more, 16% less and 36% thought the current level of intervention about right.

By 44–17, voters supported the government’s plan for the approval of new gas projects to 2050 and beyond. On renewables vs gas, 74% thought we need a long-term gas supply for times when renewables are unable to meet demand, while 26% thought allowing the gas industry to continue only delays the transition to renewables.

Morgan poll: Labor down but just ahead

A national Morgan poll, conducted May 13–19 from a sample of 1,674, gave Labor a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the May 6–12 Morgan poll. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 30.5% Labor (down 1.5), 14.5% Greens (up one), 5.5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (up one) and 4% others (down 0.5).

Additional Resolve questions

I previously covered the weak post-budget Resolve poll for Labor, which was conducted for Nine newspapers. On the immigration level of 528,000 people last year, 66% thought it too high, 23% about right and 2% too low.

On the forecast immigration of 260,000 per year, 50% thought it too high, 35% about right and 4% too low. The too high number on the forecast dropped five points since December.

By 41–29, voters rated Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ performance good over poor, down from a 47–20 good rating after the May 2023 budget. Former Liberal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg had a 53–28 good rating after the March 2022 budget, but the Coalition still lost the May 2022 election.

By 57–31, voters agreed that if they had a major expense of a few thousand dollars, they would struggle to afford it (55–34 in April). This is the highest level of agreement in Resolve’s polls on this question. By 52–24, voters thought interest rate rises more about domestic factors in Australia than international factors beyond the government’s control (48–26 in April).

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor takes a hit in Resolve polls in Queensland and Victoria – https://theconversation.com/labor-takes-a-hit-in-resolve-polls-in-queensland-and-victoria-230415

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Wille, Senior research fellow, The University of Melbourne

A dangerous strain of avian influenza (bird flu) is now wreaking havoc on every continent except Australia and the rest of Oceania. While we remain free from this virus for now, it’s only a matter of time before it arrives.

Penguins in Antarctica, pelicans in Peru, sea lions in South America and dairy cows in the United States have all been hit by fast-spreading and often lethal high pathogenicity avian influenza, known as HPAI H5N1.

Indeed, avian influenza is knocking on our door right now. Just today, a case of avian influenza was reported in a return traveller, and Victorian authorities have confirmed avian influenza on an egg farm. Importantly, authorities have confirmed the virus affecting chickens is not the virus we are most worried about. Authorities are responding and we expect more information to come in the days ahead.

Researchers and biosecurity authorities are on high alert, monitoring poultry farms and testing wildlife. They could do with our help. Anyone who comes across dead or dying birds – or mammals – should report them to the Emergency Animal Disease Watch Hotline.

The rise of an animal pandemic

Avian influenza is a viral disease that infects birds, but can infect other animals.

There isn’t just one strain of avian influenza found in wild birds – there’s a diversity of subtypes and strains. Most cause no disease at all, and are naturally found in wild birds, including in Australia.

But others are deadly. The HPAI H5N1 clade was first detected in a goose in China, back in 1996. HPAI viruses cause high levels of sickness and death in both wild birds and poultry. It spreads rapidly and kills many of the birds – and animals – it infects.

HPAI H5N1 has been endemic in poultry in Asia for decades, driving virus evolution and the emergence of a diversity of different virus clades (a clade is similar to a variant).

In 2005 we saw the first mass mortality event in wild birds. The virus spread to Europe and Africa through both poultry trade and potentially wild birds.

In 2014 the virus again entered Europe with wild birds, with spread to North America the same year, and in 2016, to Africa.

But the real change came in 2020. The number of outbreaks in poultry and wild birds dramatically increased. In 2021, reports streamed in of mass mortality events in Europe and the virus rapidly travelled the world. The world was in the grip of a “panzootic” – a global pandemic in animals.

This particularly lethal clade of the virus jumped the Atlantic and reached North America around October 2021. A few months later, it again jumped to North America, but this time across the Pacific. In around October 2022, the virus entered South America, where it travelled an astonishing 6,000 kilometres to the southern tip of the continent in approximately six months.

The first cases were detected on the sub-Antarctic islands in October 2023 in brown skuas, scavenging birds. It’s since been found in penguins, elephant seals, fur seals and Antarctic terns. By February this year, the virus was detected on the Antarctica Peninsula).

Globally, millions of wild birds are likely to have been affected. In South America alone, about 650,000 wild birds were reported dead. Many more are never reported.

This virus is threatening the survival of entire species. For example, 40% of all Peruvian pelicans in Peru have died. Scientists spent years trying to bring back Californian condors from extinction, only to watch them succumb in 2023.

It will take years to fully comprehend the impact this panzootic has had around the world. Some populations of birds and even entire species may never recover.

Scientists are especially concerned about Antarctic wildlife.

Most Antarctic species are found nowhere else on Earth. Many live in large colonies, which makes it easier for the virus to spread.

Questions remain over whether the virus will persist in Antarctica over winter and how it will spread in spring or summer.

From birds to mammals

More than 50 species of predatory and scavenging mammals have now been recorded dying from avian influenza, most likely after eating dead birds.

Particularly concerning are the deaths of 30,000 South American sea lions, 18,000 southern elephant seal pups in Argentina and dairy cows on at least 51 farms across the US.

A recent study from Uruguay shows sea lions were dying before mass bird deaths, suggesting mammal-to-mammal spread may be driving outbreaks in coastal South America.

Since the virus appeared in dairy cows in America, it has spread to herds across ten US states. We are still learning about how the virus affects cows, but infected cows produce less milk because of infection in their udders. A recent study suggests this is because udders have receptors similar to those found in birds.

The US Food and Drug Administration states pasteurisation is effective against this virus.

Globally, only 13 human cases have been confirmed due to this particular variant of HPAI H5N1, but noting that over 800 cases have been recorded since 2005. So far, one dairy worker is known to have caught the virus from cows.

The World Health Organization considers the risk of human infection to be low although the risk is higher (low to medium) for poultry farmers and other animal-exposed workers. There is no sign of human-to-human transmission.

Australia, the lucky country

To date, Australia and New Zealand have avoided HPAI H5N1. Australia has a nationally coordinated surveillance system for wild birds. This includes long-distance migratory birds such as shorebirds and seabirds.

Millions of migratory birds arrive from northern Asia each year in spring. That means August to November will be our highest risk period.

In response, in both 2022 and 2023 we collected almost 1,000 samples from recently arrived migratory birds without detecting the virus. Routine testing of dead birds by others around Australia has also come back negative.

We know migratory birds have arrived carrying other strains of avian influenza into Australia. It is only a matter of time before this HPAI H5N1 arrives.

Ducks have played a crucial role in moving the virus from place to place in the Northern Hemisphere. Studies in Asia and North America have shown some duck species are able to migrate while infected, as not all ducks die from the infection. One reason we think that Australia may have been spared so far because no ducks migrate here from Asia.

When the virus does arrive, it will likely threaten entire species. Black swans are highly susceptible. Overseas, pelicans, cormorants, penguins, gannets, terns, gulls and seals have been amongst the hardest hit.

This spring, please look out for sick or dead wild birds or marine mammals and report it. Surveillance could help us manage the virus.

Read more:
The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Michelle Wille receives project funding from the Victorian Department of Health, and has previously received funding from Wildlife Health Australia, Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry and the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Chickens, ducks, seals and cows: a dangerous bird flu strain is knocking on Australia’s door – https://theconversation.com/chickens-ducks-seals-and-cows-a-dangerous-bird-flu-strain-is-knocking-on-australias-door-230013

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Wille, Senior research fellow, The University of Melbourne

A dangerous strain of avian influenza (bird flu) is now wreaking havoc on every continent except Australia and the rest of Oceania. While we remain free from this virus for now, it’s only a matter of time before it arrives.

Penguins in Antarctica, pelicans in Peru, sea lions in South America and dairy cows in the United States have all been hit by fast-spreading and often lethal high pathogenicity avian influenza, known as HPAI H5N1.

Indeed, avian influenza is knocking on our door right now. Just today, a case of avian influenza was reported in a return traveller, and Victorian authorities have confirmed avian influenza on an egg farm. Importantly, authorities have confirmed the virus affecting chickens is not the virus we are most worried about.

Researchers and biosecurity authorities are on high alert, monitoring poultry farms and testing wildlife. They could do with our help. Anyone who comes across dead or dying birds – or mammals – should report them to the Emergency Animal Disease Watch Hotline.

The rise of an animal pandemic

Avian influenza is a viral disease that infects birds, but can infect other animals.

There isn’t just one strain of avian influenza found in wild birds – there’s a diversity of subtypes and strains. Most cause no disease at all, and are naturally found in wild birds, including in Australia.

But others are deadly. The HPAI H5N1 clade was first detected in a goose in China, back in 1996. HPAI viruses cause high levels of sickness and death in both wild birds and poultry. It spreads rapidly and kills many of the birds – and animals – it infects.

HPAI H5N1 has been endemic in poultry in Asia for decades, driving virus evolution and the emergence of a diversity of different virus clades (a clade is similar to a variant).

In 2005 we saw the first mass mortality event in wild birds. The virus spread to Europe and Africa through both poultry trade and potentially wild birds.

In 2014 the virus again entered Europe with wild birds, with spread to North America the same year, and in 2016, to Africa.

But the real change came in 2020. The number of outbreaks in poultry and wild birds dramatically increased. In 2021, reports streamed in of mass mortality events in Europe and the virus rapidly travelled the world. The world was in the grip of a “panzootic” – a global pandemic in animals.

This particularly lethal clade of the virus jumped the Atlantic and reached North America around October 2021. A few months later, it again jumped to North America, but this time across the Pacific. In around October 2022, the virus entered South America, where it travelled an astonishing 6,000 kilometres to the southern tip of the continent in approximately six months.

The first cases were detected on the sub-Antarctic islands in October 2023 in brown skuas, scavenging birds. It’s since been found in penguins, elephant seals, fur seals and Antarctic terns. By February this year, the virus was detected on the Antarctica Peninsula).

Globally, millions of wild birds are likely to have been affected. In South America alone, about 650,000 wild birds were reported dead. Many more are never reported.

This virus is threatening the survival of entire species. For example, 40% of all Peruvian pelicans in Peru have died. Scientists spent years trying to bring back Californian condors from extinction, only to watch them succumb in 2023.

It will take years to fully comprehend the impact this panzootic has had around the world. Some populations of birds and even entire species may never recover.

Scientists are especially concerned about Antarctic wildlife.

Most Antarctic species are found nowhere else on Earth. Many live in large colonies, which makes it easier for the virus to spread.

Questions remain over whether the virus will persist in Antarctica over winter and how it will spread in spring or summer.

From birds to mammals

More than 50 species of predatory and scavenging mammals have now been recorded dying from avian influenza, most likely after eating dead birds.

Particularly concerning are the deaths of 30,000 South American sea lions, 18,000 southern elephant seal pups in Argentina and dairy cows on at least 51 farms across the US.

A recent study from Uruguay shows sea lions were dying before mass bird deaths, suggesting mammal-to-mammal spread may be driving outbreaks in coastal South America.

Since the virus appeared in dairy cows in America, it has spread to herds across ten US states. We are still learning about how the virus affects cows, but infected cows produce less milk because of infection in their udders. A recent study suggests this is because udders have receptors similar to those found in birds.

The US Food and Drug Administration states pasteurisation is effective against this virus.

Globally, only 13 human cases have been confirmed due to this particular variant of HPAI H5N1, but noting that over 800 cases have been recorded since 2005. So far, one dairy worker is known to have caught the virus from cows.

The World Health Organization considers the risk of human infection to be low although the risk is higher (low to medium) for poultry farmers and other animal-exposed workers. There is no sign of human-to-human transmission.

Australia, the lucky country

To date, Australia and New Zealand have avoided HPAI H5N1. Australia has a nationally coordinated surveillance system for wild birds. This includes long-distance migratory birds such as shorebirds and seabirds.

Millions of migratory birds arrive from northern Asia each year in spring. That means August to November will be our highest risk period.

In response, in both 2022 and 2023 we collected almost 1,000 samples from recently arrived migratory birds without detecting the virus. Routine testing of dead birds by others around Australia has also come back negative.

We know migratory birds have arrived carrying other strains of avian influenza into Australia. It is only a matter of time before this HPAI H5N1 arrives.

Ducks have played a crucial role in moving the virus from place to place in the Northern Hemisphere. Studies in Asia and North America have shown some duck species are able to migrate while infected, as not all ducks die from the infection. One reason we think that Australia may have been spared so far because no ducks migrate here from Asia.

When the virus does arrive, it will likely threaten entire species. Black swans are highly susceptible. Overseas, pelicans, cormorants, penguins, gannets, terns, gulls and seals have been amongst the hardest hit.

This spring, please look out for sick or dead wild birds or marine mammals and report it. Surveillance could help us manage the virus.

Read more:
The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Michelle Wille receives project funding from the Victorian Department of Health, and has previously received funding from Wildlife Health Australia, Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry and the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Chickens, ducks, seals and cows: a dangerous bird flu strain is everywhere but Australia, for now – https://theconversation.com/chickens-ducks-seals-and-cows-a-dangerous-bird-flu-strain-is-everywhere-but-australia-for-now-230013

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justine Humphry, Senior Lecturer in Digital Cultures, University of Sydney

This month the Australian government announced a A$6.5 million commitment to trial an age-verification program that will restrict children’s exposure to inappropriate online content, including pornography and potentially social media. The announcement came out of a National Cabinet meeting geared towards addressing gender-based violence in Australia.

Much has been said about age-checking technologies in the weeks since. Experts point out implementing these tools effectively (so they aren’t easily by-passed) will be complicated – and any such system could come with data security risk. Internet freedom groups have criticised the decision on account of its potential to erode privacy.

There is, however, an important dimension missing from these discussions: the voice of young people and parents. In our research into social media use and online harms affecting Australian teenagers, we asked young people and their parents what they themselves thought about age verification. We found mixed reactions from both groups.

Our findings suggest age verification is generally supported, but participants think it likely would not work. Instead, they said more safety education, face-to-face dialogue, and accountability from social media companies would be better approaches to keeping young people safe online.

Young Australians and social media

Young Australians use social media for a variety of reasons, from keeping in touch with friends and family, to seeking information and entertainment.

Our latest research found almost a quarter of young people 12 to 17 use WhatsApp daily. One in two are daily Snapchat users. Instagram and YouTube are the most frequently used platforms, used daily by 64% and 56% of young people respectively.

These patterns are especially significant for culturally and linguistically diverse Australians, who are more likely to use social media to socialise, maintain familial and cultural ties and learn about the world.

That said, social media and the internet more broadly do present risks to young people. These risks include online bullying, grooming and unsolicited contact, privacy breaches, misinformation and content that is pornographic, racist, sexist, homophobic and/or violent.

Studies have found associations between social media use and poor mental health and self-esteem, although direct causation is difficult to establish. It’s also important to note risk doesn’t equate with harm, and young people themselves commonly demonstrate skills, judgement and agency in negotiating online risks.

In an environment of heightened concern, decisions are now being made that will have significant impacts on both young people and their parents. These decisions are being fuelled by media brands, celebrities and ex-politicians seeking to influence discourse.

Elsewhere in the world, the UK’s Online Safety Bill is attempting to restrict young people’s access to online pornography, through either government-issued documents or biometrics. The UK regulator Ofcom is set to publish guidance on age-assurance compliance in early 2025. France has also been testing a system to verify age based on a user intermediary, after it enacted a law in 2023 to restrict social media use for people under 15.

The details of the trial in Australia haven’t yet been released, but it could use one or a combination of approaches.

The missing perspective

Our research, which focused on Australian teenagers aged 12–17 and their parents, drew from focus groups and a national survey in 2022–23. Overall, the survey showed broad support for age verification. Specifically, 72% of young people and 86% of parents believed more effective age limits would improve online safety for young people.

But we also heard about several drawbacks. For instance, young people saw age verification as something that would benefit adults. One participant said:

I guess it benefits parents who want to be in the right mindset that their kids are safe on social media.

Another young person said:

I feel like in the case of lot of controlling parents it would be bad for the kid because then if the parents are controlling and they don’t have any social media to talk to people, I feel like that could negatively impact the kid. Maybe they’d get lonely, or they wouldn’t be able to use it as an outlet.

Some young people noted they could find ways around age-verification tools:

It would be simple just to get a VPN and change my country if it was going to create this obstacle.

They also pointed out such tools don’t account for evolving maturity levels and differing capabilities among young individuals.

Parents shared concerns about the burden of providing proof of their age and managing consent:

I mean depending on what kind of site it is would you be comfortable providing your passport information or your driver’s licence?

Both groups were worried about the risk of data breaches and leaks of sensitive information. As one parent told us:

Well, it certainly makes you think about it a lot more. What are they using that data for? Is it really just for age verification, or is it for something more nefarious?

Another young person also had privacy concerns:

But if I would say that I was OK with it, I think I’d be lying. Because, I’m a really private person, privacy really matters. And yeah, I do think to be safe, I think we really should be having our own privacy as well.

So what should be done?

Governments, parents, educators and platforms all have an important role to play in ensuring young people’s safety online.

Beyond age verification, there’s a growing consensus social media companies should be doing more to ensure users’ safety. Until that happens, the best approach is for parents and children to talk to each other to determine the appropriate age for a child to be on social media. By working together, families can develop guidelines and expectations for appropriate use.

Schools can also help by developing young people’s digital literacy and online safety skills.

Ultimately, if we want young people to thrive in online environments, we need to involve them in the decisions that will directly affect them.

Justine Humphry has received funding from the Office of the eSafety Commissioner under the Online Safety Grants Program.

Catherine Page Jeffery has received funding from the Office of the eSafety Commissioner under the Online Safety Grants Program. She is affiliated with Children and Media Australia.

Jonathon Hutchinson received funding from the eSafety Commissioner to conduct this research.

Olga Boichak received research funding from the eSafety Commissioner Online Safety Grants Program.

– ref. Age verification for social media would impact all of us. We asked parents and kids if they actually want it – https://theconversation.com/age-verification-for-social-media-would-impact-all-of-us-we-asked-parents-and-kids-if-they-actually-want-it-230539

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justine Humphry, Senior Lecturer in Digital Cultures, University of Sydney

This month the Australian government announced a A$6.5 million commitment to trial an age-verification program that will restrict children’s exposure to inappropriate online content, including pornography and potentially social media. The announcement came out of a National Cabinet meeting geared towards addressing gender-based violence in Australia.

Much has been said about age-checking technologies in the weeks since. Experts point out implementing these tools effectively (so they aren’t easily by-passed) will be complicated – and any such system could come with data security risk. Internet freedom groups have criticised the decision on account of its potential to erode privacy.

There is, however, an important dimension missing from these discussions: the voice of young people and parents. In our research into social media use and online harms affecting Australian teenagers, we asked young people and their parents what they themselves thought about age verification. We found mixed reactions from both groups.

Our findings suggest age verification is generally supported, but participants think it likely would not work. Instead, they said more safety education, face-to-face dialogue, and accountability from social media companies would be better approaches to keeping young people safe online.

Young Australians and social media

Young Australians use social media for a variety of reasons, from keeping in touch with friends and family, to seeking information and entertainment.

Our latest research found almost a quarter of young people 12 to 17 use WhatsApp daily. One in two are daily Snapchat users. Instagram and YouTube are the most frequently used platforms, used daily by 64% and 56% of young people respectively.

These patterns are especially significant for culturally and linguistically diverse Australians, who are more likely to use social media to socialise, maintain familial and cultural ties and learn about the world.

That said, social media and the internet more broadly do present risks to young people. These risks include online bullying, grooming and unsolicited contact, privacy breaches, misinformation and content that is pornographic, racist, sexist, homophobic and/or violent.

Studies have found associations between social media use and poor mental health and self-esteem, although direct causation is difficult to establish. It’s also important to note risk doesn’t equate with harm, and young people themselves commonly demonstrate skills, judgement and agency in negotiating online risks.

In an environment of heightened concern, decisions are now being made that will have significant impacts on both young people and their parents. These decisions are being fuelled by media brands, celebrities and ex-politicians seeking to influence discourse.

Elsewhere in the world, the UK’s Online Safety Bill is attempting to restrict young people’s access to online pornography, through either government-issued documents or biometrics. The UK regulator Ofcom is set to publish guidance on age-assurance compliance in early 2025. France has also been testing a system to verify age based on a user intermediary, after it enacted a law in 2023 to restrict social media use for people under 15.

The details of the trial in Australia haven’t yet been released, but it could use one or a combination of approaches.

The missing perspective

Our research, which focused on Australian teenagers aged 12–17 and their parents, drew from focus groups and a national survey in 2022–23. Overall, the survey showed broad support for age verification. Specifically, 72% of young people and 86% of parents believed more effective age limits would improve online safety for young people.

But we also heard about several drawbacks. For instance, young people saw age verification as something that would benefit adults. One participant said:

I guess it benefits parents who want to be in the right mindset that their kids are safe on social media.

Another young person said:

I feel like in the case of lot of controlling parents it would be bad for the kid because then if the parents are controlling and they don’t have any social media to talk to people, I feel like that could negatively impact the kid. Maybe they’d get lonely, or they wouldn’t be able to use it as an outlet.

Some young people noted they could find ways around age-verification tools:

It would be simple just to get a VPN and change my country if it was going to create this obstacle.

They also pointed out such tools don’t account for evolving maturity levels and differing capabilities among young individuals.

Parents shared concerns about the burden of providing proof of their age and managing consent:

I mean depending on what kind of site it is would you be comfortable providing your passport information or your driver’s licence?

Both groups were worried about the risk of data breaches and leaks of sensitive information. As one parent told us:

Well, it certainly makes you think about it a lot more. What are they using that data for? Is it really just for age verification, or is it for something more nefarious?

Another young person also had privacy concerns:

But if I would say that I was OK with it, I think I’d be lying. Because, I’m a really private person, privacy really matters. And yeah, I do think to be safe, I think we really should be having our own privacy as well.

So what should be done?

Governments, parents, educators and platforms all have an important role to play in ensuring young people’s safety online.

Beyond age verification, there’s a growing consensus social media companies should be doing more to ensure users’ safety. Until that happens, the best approach is for parents and children to talk to each other to determine the appropriate age for a child to be on social media. By working together, families can develop guidelines and expectations for appropriate use.

Schools can also help by developing young people’s digital literacy and online safety skills.

Ultimately, if we want young people to thrive in online environments, we need to involve them in the decisions that will directly affect them.

Justine Humphry has received funding from the Office of the eSafety Commissioner under the Online Safety Grants Program.

Catherine Page Jeffery has received funding from the Office of the eSafety Commissioner under the Online Safety Grants Program. She is affiliated with Children and Media Australia.

Jonathon Hutchinson received funding from the eSafety Commissioner to conduct this research.

Olga Boichak received research funding from the eSafety Commissioner Online Safety Grants Program.

– ref. Age verification for porn and social media would impact all of us. We asked parents and kids if they actually want it – https://theconversation.com/age-verification-for-porn-and-social-media-would-impact-all-of-us-we-asked-parents-and-kids-if-they-actually-want-it-230539

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katharine Kemp, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney

Australians don’t know and can’t control how data brokers are spreading their personal information. This is the core finding of a newly released report from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).

Consumers wanting to rent a property, get an insurance quote or shop online are not given real choices about whether their personal data is shared for other purposes. This exposes Australians to scams, fraud, manipulation and discrimination.

In fact, many don’t even know what kind of data has been collected about them and shared or sold by data firms and other third parties.

Our privacy laws are due for reform. But Australia’s privacy commissioner should also enforce an existing rule: with very limited exceptions, businesses must not collect information about you from third parties.

What are data brokers?

Data brokers generally make their profits by collecting information about individuals from various sources and sharing this personal data with their many business clients. This can include detailed profiles of a person’s family, health, finances and movements.

Data brokers often have no connection with the individual – you may not even recognise the name of a firm that holds vast amounts of information on you. Some of these data brokers are large multinational companies with billions of dollars in revenue.

Consumer and privacy advocates provided the ACCC with evidence of highly concerning data broker practices. One woman tried to find out how data brokers had got hold of her information after receiving targeted medical advertising.

Although she never discovered how they obtained her data, she found out it included her name, date of birth and contact details. It also included inferences about her, such as her retiree status, having no children, not having “high affluence” and being likely to donate to a charity.

ACCC found another data broker was reportedly creating lists of individuals who may be experiencing vulnerability. The categories included:

• children, teenage girls and teenage boys
• “financially unsavvy” people
• elderly people living alone
• new migrants
• religious minorities
• unemployed people
• people in financial distress
• new migrants
• people experiencing pain or who have visited certain medical facilities.

These are all potential vulnerabilities that could be exploited, for example, by scammers or unscrupulous advertisers.

How do they get this information?

The ACCC notes 74% of Australians are uncomfortable with their personal information being shared or sold.

Nonetheless, data brokers sell and share Australian consumers’ personal information every day. Businesses we deal with – for example, when we buy a car or search for natural remedies on an online marketplace – both buy data about us from data brokers and provide them with more.

The ACCC acknowledges consumers haven’t been given a choice about this.

Attempting to read every privacy term is near impossible. The ACCC referred to a recent study which found it would take consumers over 46 hours a month to read every privacy policy they encounter.

Even if you could read every term, you still wouldn’t get a clear picture. Businesses use vague wording and data descriptions which confuse consumers and have no fixed meaning. These include “pseudonymised information”, “hashed email addresses”, “aggregated information” and “advertising ID”.

Privacy terms are also presented on a “take it or leave it” basis, even for transactions like applying for a rental property or buying insurance.

The ACCC pointed out 41% of Australians feel they have been pressured to use “rent tech” platforms. These platforms collect an increasing range of information with questionable connection to renting.

A first for Australian consumers

This is the first time an Australian regulator has made an in-depth report on the consumer data practices of data brokers, which are generally hidden from consumers. It comes ten years after the United States Federal Trade Commission (FTC) conducted a similar inquiry into data brokers in the US.

The ACCC report examined the data practices of nine data brokers and other “data firms” operating in Australia. (It added the term “data firms” because some companies sharing data about people argue that they are not data brokers.)

A big difference between the Australian and the US reports is that the FTC is both the consumer watchdog and the privacy regulator. As our competition and consumer watchdog, the ACCC is meant to focus on competition and consumer issues.

We also need our privacy regulator, the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC), to pay attention to these findings.

There’s a law against that

The ACCC report shows many examples of businesses collecting personal information about us from third parties. For example, you may be a customer of a business that only has your name and email address. But that business can purchase “data enrichment” services from a data broker to find out your age range, income range and family situation.

The current Privacy Act includes a principle that organisations must collect personal information only from the individual (you) unless it is unreasonable or impracticable to do so. “Impracticable” means practically impossible. This is the direct collection rule.

Yet there is no reported case of the privacy commissioner enforcing the direct collection rule against a data broker or its business customers. Nor has the OAIC issued any specific guidance in this respect. It should do both.

Time to update our privacy laws

Our privacy law was drafted in 1988, long before this complex web of digital data practices emerged. Privacy laws in places such as California and the European Union provide much stronger protections.

The government has announced it plans to introduce a privacy law reform bill this August.

The ACCC report reinforces the need for vital amendments, including a direct right of action for individuals and a rule requiring dealings in personal information to be “fair and reasonable”.

Katharine Kemp has received funding from the UNSW Allens Hub for Technology, Law and Innovation. She is a Member of the Expert Panel of the Consumer Policy Research Centre, and the Australian Privacy Foundation.

The ACCC referred to the joint research of Katharine Kemp and the Consumer Policy Research Centre in this report.

– ref. Worried your address, birth date or health data is being sold? You should be – and the law isn’t protecting you – https://theconversation.com/worried-your-address-birth-date-or-health-data-is-being-sold-you-should-be-and-the-law-isnt-protecting-you-230540

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark A Gregory, Associate Professor, School of Engineering, RMIT University

On Tuesday, Telstra announced it will be cutting up to 2,800 jobs as part of a major restructure.

Of these layoffs, 377 will take effect immediately from within the Telstra Enterprise business unit. Most of the remaining cuts will be announced in detail soon and finalised by the end of the year.

The announcement followed a review of the company’s enterprise division, which services large business and government clients.

Providing voice calls and other network services to these clients has historically been an important part of Telstra’s business. But recently, low-cost internet-based competitors have been whittling away at this revenue.

Speaking at a press conference, Telstra CEO Vicki Brady said while the company continues to see solid growth across its mobile network, it now faces a changing business landscape:

Our industry and the world we are operating in are changing. We have new and different competitors. We have rapid advances in technologies happening. Our customer needs continue to evolve and we have ongoing inflationary and cost pressures.

But it’s possible these job cuts are also part of a strategy to boost Telstra’s flagging share price, which fell to a low of A$3.57 the day of the announcement.

This was down from its 52-week high of $4.46 and well below its ten-year high of $6.61 in February 2015.

How did we get here?

In February, Telstra reported a 66.7% drop in EBITDA – an important measure of earnings – for its fixed-enterprise business unit.

Telstra said this fall-off was the result of a continued decline in income from call charges, business connectivity, network applications and services.

It’s possible the slowing Australian economy may have exacerbated the decline, impacting businesses’ spending on telecommunications products and services.

Telstra has been under pressure to find savings under its ambitious “T25” target to achieve a $500 million reduction in net costs by the end of financial year 2024–25.

Telstra expects this major restructure to incur a one-off cost of between $200 million to $250 million over this period.

The company also said it would focus on reducing other cost categories, including non-labour-related costs. One such cost is energy usage, a major expense for telcos.

Now, the company expects to achieve $350 million of its cost reduction target by the 2025 deadline.

Telstra hasn’t directly tied this latest round of cuts to the broader adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). But the company has been exploring ways of using the technology.

Telstra announced in February it was moving forward with AI technologies it had developed in-house, following pilot trials with frontline team members.

The company was at pains to point out that these particular technologies aim to assist existing human staff, for example, by summarising interactions with customers or better searching for information from internal databases.

Down the line, however, further adoption of AI could eventually impact employee numbers as Telstra and other telecommunications companies aim to ramp up and exploit cost-cutting uses of the technology.

Mobile tells a stronger story

Telstra’s core mobile business has meanwhile performed strongly, with subscriber numbers growing steadily over the last year.

The company’s latest announcement included a significant change to the terms of its postpaid mobile plans.

Prices of these plans have historically been automatically indexed to the consumer price index each financial year. That will no longer happen, bringing postpaid mobile plans into line with most of Telstra’s other products. There will be no increase this July.

Brady said the move would give the company greater flexibility:

This approach reflects there are a range of factors that go into any pricing decision, and will provide greater flexibility to adjust prices at different times and across different plans based on their value propositions and customer needs.

The change does mean consumers might see relief from large automatic price increases when the consumer price index is high.

But it will likely cause concern among consumer groups. There will now be uncertainty on the exact timing of price changes for postpaid mobile plans, and their size and direction will be largely up to Telstra.

Telstra’s future direction remains unclear

There are other pressures looming for Telstra.

Before the next election, the government is expected to announce the outcome of a review into the universal service obligation (USO), a consumer protection that guarantees Australians “reasonable access to fixed telephone and payphone services”.

Telstra is Australia’s nominated USO provider, and this delivery contract has been a key driver of its dominant position in regional and remote areas. But there’s no guarantee it will be renewed with Telstra in 2032.

Telstra says its restructuring aims to put the company in better financial shape. But the announcement does not offer strong guidance on how Telstra plans to grow its business in coming years.

Telstra is facing increasing competition in a maturing market and its growth appears to be based primarily on expanding its customer base rather than introducing new products and services.

In the short term, Telstra continues to struggle to reduce costs at a time of what it calls “higher-than-expected inflation” and high energy costs.

Mark A Gregory received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Communications Consumer Action Network and the AuDA Foundation.

– ref. Telstra says slashing almost a tenth of its workforce will help save $350 million. Why is the business under pressure? – https://theconversation.com/telstra-says-slashing-almost-a-tenth-of-its-workforce-will-help-save-350-million-why-is-the-business-under-pressure-230533

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Sherlock, Visiting Fellow, Department of Political and Social Change, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, Australian National University

Indonesia’s president-elect, Prabowo Subianto, won February’s presidential election in a landslide victory of nearly 59% of the nationwide vote, more than double his nearest challenger.

But his party, Gerindra, fell far short of a majority in the parliamentary elections that took place at the same time. Gerindra was founded by Prabowo and its political fortunes are inseparable from his personal popularity. Yet, the party won just 14.8% of the seats in Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR).

And even the addition of all the parties that supported Probowo’s presidential candidacy only brings his numbers up to 48% of the seats in the assembly. This support is also not a given when it comes to legislation or approval of budgetary allocations.

So, is this a recipe for confrontation and deadlock after the new president and parliament are sworn into office in October?

What’s on Prabowo’s agenda?

Under Indonesia’s presidential system, Prabowo does not need a parliamentary majority to stay in office, but a troublesome parliament would be a major impediment for his government.

The parliament can be a check on executive power and the president’s fiscal initiatives, as well as a tool for contesting his legislative program. Prabowo will therefore need to build a coalition of parties to back him.

In the previous two elections he lost to Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in 2014 and 2019, he waged divisive campaigns. He presented himself as an ultra-nationalist strongman figure and mobilised extreme elements of Indonesia’s majority Islamic community. This was approach was seen by many analysts as threatening the traditionally inclusive nature of Indonesian politics and society.

In this year’s election, however, Prabowo projected a more moderate image and largely committed himself to a continuation of Jokowi’s programs. He did not campaign on major new policy initiatives or structural reforms.

Jokowi’s programs have largely emphasised economic development, especially infrastructure, such as the construction of a new capital city, Nusantara, on Borneo.

Prabowo has also been a vocal advocate for the economic nationalist policies embraced by Jokowi. These include restrictions on the import of rice and other agricultural commodities to support local production and restrictions on the export of minerals to encourage domestic downstream processing.

Also in Prabowo’s favour: the composition of the new parliament is remarkably similarly to the one elected in 2019.

Former President Megawati Sukarnoputri’s party, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (or PDI-P), will be the largest in the parliament to be inaugurated in October, with 110 seats. Next is the Golkar Party with 102 seats and then Prabowo’s Gerindra with 86.

None of the parties are opposed to the economic nationalist consensus that has long dominated Indonesian policy, including under Jokowi.

The only issues that generate real policy debate among the parties relate to sensitive questions over the state’s involvement in religious affairs, especially regarding the status of women in public and private life.

Defence could be contentious

Given these factors, is Prabowo’s lack of a parliamentary majority really a problem?

It can be. If Prabowo and his ministries do not manage their relationships with lawmakers the right way, it can be a source of irritation and even obstruction.

Party loyalties can be tenuous and legislators are notorious for being mostly concerned with pork-barrelling and patronage in their own constituencies. They often use their seats to advance their own personal business interests.

For example, Prabowo could encounter problems in one of the few areas where his administration may try to make a mark: defence policy and procurement. As a former military officer and defence minister, he appears committed to building up Indonesia’s military capability and asserting a leading role in regional security and the ASEAN bloc.

But when it comes to major defence budget allocations, his administration will need to satisfy powerful lawmakers who are linked to domestic contractors and others who benefit from military spending.

His controversial decision as defence minister to purchase outdated fighter jets from Qatar in 2023 was shelved after being criticised in parliament. His apparently off-the-cuff proposal for a Russia-Ukraine peace plan at a conference in June 2023 was criticised, as well.

Let the politicking begin

So, how will Prabowo manage the problem of the parliament?

He will almost certainly follow the same approach of his predecessors – tempt as many parties as possible into his tent by giving out attractive ministerial positions.

This is where the politicking for parliamentary positions and jockeying for cabinet posts are directly related. A party’s numbers in the parliament are its main bargaining chip for a place in cabinet. And the gifting of a ministerial post is the key to the president gaining support from rivals.

If experience is any guide, most parties will join his alliance if a ministry is on offer. The majority of parties did this under Susilo Bambang Yudhyono’s administration from 2004–14, as well as during Jokowi’s time in office. Prabowo benefited himself when Jokowi gave him the defence portfolio in 2019.

So far, no parties have come forward to publicly lobby for a post in Prabowo’s government, but this is undoubtedly part of the game of playing hard-to-get.

It is possible that Megawati’s party, PDI-P, may stay out of the cabinet and attempt to lead a parliamentary opposition. She likely still feels jilted by Jokowi, a former member of PDI-P, after he decided to support Prabowo instead of his own party’s presidential candidate during the campaign.

But other parties are likely to be receptive to cabinet posts. While it is true that a healthy legislature requires a healthy opposition, most Indonesian parties are more attracted by a share of the spoils of government than they are by the notion of keeping government accountable in opposition.

So, from now until the October inauguration, we will see a flurry of backroom meetings, flirtations and negotiations between Prabowo and the leaders of the parties to patch together a cabinet. Then, for Prabowo, comes the even harder task of trying to govern with such an unwieldy coalition, while maintaining some semblance of policy coherence and coordination.

Stephen Sherlock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. He won Indonesia’s election in a landslide. Now, backroom meetings and horse-trading will determine whether Prabowo can govern – https://theconversation.com/he-won-indonesias-election-in-a-landslide-now-backroom-meetings-and-horse-trading-will-determine-whether-prabowo-can-govern-228405

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Byron, Lecturer in Psychology, University of Wollongong

“I’m looking for a man in finance,” the TikTok user, @girl_on_couch, says blandly, looking around the room and then into the camera. “Trust fund. 6’5. Blue eyes. Finance.” In the caption, she urges someone to turn her sound bite into “an actual song plz”.

From this little bit of spoken audio sprang the song that’s suddenly everywhere on social media: I’m looking for a man in finance.

A quick browse on Spotify reveals several music producers, such as Billen Ted, Hiko and Ketno, have since featured this spoken phrase on various dance tracks. Billen Ted even show how they did it.

The result is undeniably an earworm – a song that all-too-easily gets stuck in your head. On TikTok and Instagram, users are making their versions of the song, dancing to it around lounge rooms or dance festivals, or muttering adaptations of it as they work or multitask.

Sampled speech in song

It is, of course, not the first time a little bit of spoken audio has formed the central pillar of a wildly popular dance track.

Remember Get on the Beers? This viral track sampled a then-Victorian Premier Dan Andrews speech imploring people to stay home during the early days of the COVID pandemic. The song, by Mashd N Kutcher, was later described as “an unofficial anthem for Melbournians coming out of lockdown”.

Older readers will remember Pauline Pantsdown’s I don’t like it, which cheekily included unauthorised vocal samples from conservative politician Pauline Hanson.

Another memorable example is The Avalanches’ hugely acclaimed song Frontier Psychiatrist, with its surreal mix of samples and repeated spoken refrain: “that boy needs therapy”.

So what makes a great speech sample in a song, and why are they often so memorable?

Recogniseable but recontextualised

I’m a music researcher with a special interest in earworms, and wrote about memorable audio samples in my book with Jadey O’Regan, Hooks in Popular Music.

As we argue in our book, an audio sample such as “I’m looking for a man in finance” has to capture our attention and be memorable to be a hook. There is a barrage of noise on the internet and in our phones. For a sample to rise above that barrage, it has to have attention-grabbing audio properties, but also fit with our expectations and desires.

One way to become salient and memorable in this way is by being recognisable but recontextualised. If we already have some memory of a particular bit of spoken word, then hearing it in a new context such as a dance song will more easily capture our attention. We respond to what we recognise. Many people had seen and heard the original @girl_on_couch TikTok, so recognised it readily in the dance tracks that sampled it.

Another way to become salient and memorable is to reflect the way we feel, or the way we want to feel. Get on the Beers is another great example.

Australians were glued to their TVs to hear the daily speeches of state premiers during COVID lockdowns. It was a tense time. A lot of the big hits in that lockdown era were quite sad songs about being lonely, such as The Weeknd’s Blinding Lights and Heatwaves by Glass Animals.

Then Get on the Beers, which originally came out in 2020, experienced a surge of popularity as lockdowns ended. Thanks to some creative remixing, Dan Andrews seemed now to urge us to get to the pub asap. His soundbite was recognisable but recontextualised, in a track that felt cathartic for a populace very sick of lockdowns.

Accent, cadence and rhythm

The other thing that can make a speech sound bite memorable and ripe for remix in a song has to do with patterns of speech. That includes tone of voice and accent (there’s something catchy about @girl_on_couch’s deliberately hammed-up valley girl Californian accent, with all its vocal fry).

A staccato rhythm, an accidental rhyme, the cadence of a sentence – factors like these can conspire to create a line that is unusual, memorable and endlessly repeatable.

Southend’s song The Winner Is…, which focuses on the moment it was announced Sydney would host the 2000 Olympics, is another example. It captures a moment of celebration and release.

It’s hard to know whether this song would have been as popular if it wasn’t for the brilliantly memorable way former Olympics chief Juan Antonio Samaranch, originally from Spain, pronounced the word “Sydney”.

Speech as music

When you sample some speech and put it on a loop, people stop paying attention to the meaning of the words. They start paying attention to the sound, rhythm and melody of the voice. People hear speech as music.

This is what Diana Deutsch, a professor of psychology at the University of California, called the “speech-to-song illusion”. Her research looked at how the phrase “sometimes behave so strangely” suddenly
appears “to burst into song”, even if no other musical elements are added.

That is playing a role in all successful spoken samples. The effect is even stronger once you emphasise the rhythm of speech by putting it to a dance beat.

Add in the viral power of TikTok, which makes it easier than ever for users to rework and recontextualise video and audio, and it’s no great surprise I’m looking for a man in finance has become such an earworm.

Timothy Byron does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘I’m looking for a man in finance’: how a sampled sound bite can turn a dance track into an earworm – https://theconversation.com/im-looking-for-a-man-in-finance-how-a-sampled-sound-bite-can-turn-a-dance-track-into-an-earworm-230542

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Strong, Associate Professor, Music Industry, RMIT University

The perennial question of what to do with musicians and their work when they are found to have been abusive has arisen again this week, as distressing video footage of rapper Sean “Diddy” Combs assaulting his then girlfriend Cassandra Ventura in a hotel in 2016 was released by CNN.

Last year, Combs settled a lawsuit brought against him by Ventura, which accused him of sexual and physical violence over the course of more than a decade.

Following the video’s release, Combs posted an apology video in which he states “My behaviour […] is inexcusable. I take full responsibility for my actions in that video”. This is at odds with a 2023 post in which he wrote “I did not do any of the awful things being alleged. I will fight for my name, my family and for the truth”.

But why does it matter if artists are abusers? And what impact does it have on fans when these cases emerge?

A crisis of men’s violence

High-profile cases can play an important role in shaping community understandings of gender-based violence, although unfortunately commentary often reproduces problematic understandings about men’s violence, such as calling sexual violence “sex”, or by blaming the victim for the violence they experienced.

At a time when gender-based violence is at crisis levels in many places, how Combs’ actions are framed, and society’s subsequent response, can send a powerful message about our tolerance of men’s violence, and whether men who use violence will be held to account for their actions.

A long history

There is a long history of musicians being implicated in gender-based violence and domestic abuse, but nevertheless being protected by the industry.

Decades ago, abusive behaviour towards women was often hidden behind “sex, drugs and rock’n’roll” mythologies or excused as part of their artistic “genius”.

In the #MeToo era, we have seen many women come forward with experiences of abuse, assault and sexual harassment, often committed by our favourite artists, directors or actors.

This has not stopped abuse from happening. Artists and record labels have various legal tactics they can deploy to prevent information about abuse being circulated and keep survivors silent, including quick payouts with non-disclosure clauses attached to defamation lawsuits.

Protecting the reputation – and commercial value – of artists has been central to such tactics. Their success can be seen in the number of artists whose abuse has been described as an “open secret” continuing until the weight of evidence becomes overwhelming.

How do fans respond?

Some fans argue they can separate art from an artist’s alleged misconduct, whereby an artist’s actions will have little to no bearing on how the music is consumed. Allegations, no matter how well supported by evidence, will not affect their fandom or relationship to the music.

Other fans see the artist and the art they create as inseparable. They will no longer listen to their music, and will get rid of any merchandise and memorabilia.

For these fans, learning of allegations about an artist might lead to extreme measures, such as removing or covering up any tattoos they have dedicated to the artist. In this way, depending on the strength of their fandom, disconnecting from an artist can have implications for fans’ self-identity.

A fan’s response may also depend on how important it is for them to be seen as an ally for victims, as well as their own social position in relation to both the victim and perpetrator.

Research on fans has found that race and musical genre play a role in how perpetrators are framed and what the fans’ reactions to their misdeeds are. Hip hop fans’ understanding of the struggles of black artists and the ways the media frames black men as more violent than white men can lead to a sympathetic, if not entirely forgiving, approach to their actions.

These perspectives suggest holding an artist to account does not necessarily entail a punitive response.

A long way to go

As fans, we have power to shape the narrative. Do we respond in a way that minimises and excuses the actions of men who use violence and the industry that enables them, or act in solidarity with survivors?

A refusal to listen to the music of abusive artists can be a powerful political response. However, it’s clear many fans do continue to listen. Given this, two of us have argued elsewhere that, if we do continue to listen, we have an ethical obligation to listen with an awareness of the broader social and political context in which violence is perpetrated.

We must listen with an obligation: not to excuse or ignore the violence of these artists; to meaningfully listen and engage with the experiences of survivors; and to challenge and disrupt the complicity of the music industry.

This can be done by incorporating the stories of survivors into the histories of these artists, an important first step in ensuring these misdeeds are not so easily forgotten.

We can still recognise an artist’s work or achievements, but at the same time ensure they remain accountable for their actions. And we must not forget the survivors and their stories, which might also fall out of focus if an abuser is shunned and forgotten.

It is not the sole responsibility of individual fans to hold artists to account. There is an urgent need for structural change within the music industry to ensure perpetrators of gender based violence are no longer given a “free pass”, and to ensure violence is not normalised within the industry.

As in wider society, we still have a long way to go on these issues.

Catherine Strong receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Victorian Music Development Office.

Bianca Fileborn receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the City of Sydney.

Paige Klimentou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Diddy is just the latest in a long line of musical abusers. How should fans respond? – https://theconversation.com/diddy-is-just-the-latest-in-a-long-line-of-musical-abusers-how-should-fans-respond-230426

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melanie Ashe, PhD Candidate, School of Media, Film & Journalism, Monash University

The Mad Max films are set in an arid, barren, post-apocalyptic world known in the movies as “the wasteland”. This is a world of environmental and civil collapse caused by humans. Resources like water are scarce. Clothes, food and transport – such as the film’s famous customised cars – are cobbled together from found and scavenged objects.

The films present a future of mega drought: a possible future scenario for climate change.

The latest film in the franchise, Furiosa, hits cinemas this week. What does the wasteland have to tell us about the role the Australian environment has played in shaping the Mad Max films?

A colonised wasteland

Film scholar Ross Gibson argued the landscape shown on Australian film reflects how white settlers saw the land when they first arrived: hostile, barren and lifeless. Mad Max’s wasteland is a classic example of this, alongside films like Wake in Fright (1971) or Wolf Creek (2005).

This understanding is shaped by problematic attitudes that see the Australian environment as a “wilderness” devoid of life and structure. These attitudes deny the liveliness of the land and deny the fact that Indigenous people have lived on the continent for tens of thousands of years.

The Mad Max wasteland uses this colonial lens in a knowing way. The films state the wasteland was created through resource extraction and conflict. All but one of the Mad Max films were shot in Australia, and they were similarly filmed in places that have been impacted by heavy resource extraction.

By using settings that are visibly degraded by these industries, Mad Max suggests the apocalyptic wasteland is only “barren” and “lifeless” due to recent human impact.

Mad Max 2 (1981) and Furiosa were shot on location in far west New South Wales near Broken Hill. This region is known for its silver, lead and zinc mining history. The spaces around the town were majorly transformed in the 1800s through tree clearing and degradation caused from mining, including major soil erosion.

Rather than a landscape which has always been devoid of structure and people, Furiosa presents a landscape that shows heavy impact through recent industry. The vast expanses of desert horizon that vehicles tear across in the film are bare, but they show a damaged environment caused by humans since colonisation.

Both in the film and in the real world, this is a post-mining landscape.

Greening the desert

Broken Hill is in a semi-arid biosphere known for having a “boom and bust” ecosystem. While this area may look like “the wasteland” after years of drought, the region is also prone to sudden and heavy rainstorms. With the rain arrives a wave of dense, lush desert greenery.

Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) was originally planned to shoot around Broken Hill, but they relocated after the area was “too green” post heavy rainfall in 2011.

“The Mad Max landscape looks like Wales”, director George Miller reported. The production relocated to the sparse and arid environment of Namibia.

But Mad Max 2 was shot in 1981 around Broken Hill under similar circumstances. Following record rainfall, Broken Hill was lush and green, with plants and shrubs clearly seen in behind the scenes footage.

To deal with this issue, the production team used colour grading: where the tones of the film shot are altered to create a different image quality. This gave an onscreen landscape which was more washed out and warm in tone.

During the shooting of Furiosa in 2022, the area was again looking verdant after months of rain. To transform into “the wasteland” while shooting an epic chase scene on location at a local pastoral station, teams removed wide stretches of green desert shrubbery and extra detail in the background was removed with post-production visual effects.

To shoot in Australia, or not?

There is a complex and sometimes fractious relationship between the economic bottom line, on-location film production and the Australian environment.

Given Furiosa and Mad Max 2 came up with creative solutions to film in the unexpectedly green Broken Hill, why did Fury Road relocate away from the region?

These three films demonstrate the environment is easily shaped for film production when convenient and cost effective. Both Mad Max 2 and Furiosa received tax rebates or government funding packages which made filming in Australia attractive, even when the environment needed to be physically changed during production or in post-production.

Fury Road, on the other hand, was in pre-production in 2011 when the Australian dollar was almost on parity with the United States dollar, and any grants or tax benefits the film could receive for shooting in Australia would be offset by increased production costs. This means it made sense financially to relocate offshore where the film could be made cheaper.

The future of Australian screen

The wasteland of Mad Max films comment on the tradition of the Australian landscape as “barren”: this stereotype is actually due to recent human development and industry.

Understanding the environmental rhythms of the location behind the wasteland helps to think about how the geophysical world shaped the franchise. While these environments may be impacted by human industry, they are still very much alive. Rain and plant growth have shifted production through changing set and location design processes.

With the boom and bust cycle intensifying due to our changing climate, thinking about how environment shapes film production will be vitally important for the future of Australian screen.

Understanding how Mad Max’s wasteland was produced on screen reveals the underlying realities of climate catastrophe.

Melanie Ashe receives funding from Australian Research Council Discovery Projects funding scheme (project DP190101178).

– ref. Turning the outback into post-apocalyptic wasteland: what Mad Max films tell us about filming in the Australian desert – https://theconversation.com/turning-the-outback-into-post-apocalyptic-wasteland-what-mad-max-films-tell-us-about-filming-in-the-australian-desert-229632

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Bartley, Postdoctoral Fellow, RMIT Centre for Cyber Security Research and Innovation, RMIT University

In the occupied far east of Ukraine, Russian forces are aiming waves of missiles against Ukrainian civilian targets. Each of Russia’s state-of-the-art missile launch systems costs more than US$100 million (A$150 million). They allow Russia to launch attacks from safe positions many kilometres behind the front lines.

The S-300 surface-to-air missile launcher is designed to avoid detection. Their locations are closely guarded secrets. However, using publicly available satellite images, we have detected telltale signs of the operation of these weapons that give away their location.

This is just one example of why the strategic and tactical use of publicly available data on the internet has become an increasing source of concern for militaries. So-called “open-source intelligence” (or OSINT) has become a top priority of intelligence agencies worldwide.

As more and more data is digitised and placed online, open-source intelligence has become a powerful tool. Social media platforms, satellite images and leaked data can all be sources of intelligence information.

We have seen significant use of open-source intelligence via social media in the Ukraine conflict. The movements of soldiers and military vehicles have been widely documented. Russian information operations attempting to falsely portray Ukrainian forces as targeting civilians have also been exposed.

Open-source intelligence is a cheap and efficient way for analysts to inform decision-making. In a conflict such as the Russia–Ukraine war, open-source intelligence can act as a force multiplier.

Tracking missile systems online

In 2018, researchers discovered an unexpected use of the Sentinel-1 satellite, a public-access scientific satellite operated by the European Space Agency. It could reveal the location of the United States’ Patriot surface-to-air missile systems. The Sentinel-1 picks up radar emissions from the missile system’s radar, which shows up as bands of interference in the imagery.

Surface-to-air missile systems are usually designed to be highly mobile, so they can be deployed anywhere to surprise enemies. Open-source intelligence means anyone with an internet connection may now be able to locate these assets.

This poses new challenges for military leaders. The strategies and processes they have developed to protect civilians, soldiers and critical infrastructure – as well as their own weapons and other assets – from enemy drones, missiles, or targeted ground assaults may no longer be effective.

How vulnerable are Russian systems?

For Russia and Ukraine, these challenges are playing out in real time. We used Sentinel-1 to locate active and mobile Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile systems in Eastern Ukraine – and if we can find them, so can anyone else.

How did we do it? First, we analysed multiple social media sources for confirmed locations of S-300s. We then viewed Sentinel-1 imagery of these locations and increased the sensitivity to reveal radar interference from the missile systems. The interference patterns show the radar source sits along a certain line.

The above image shows how it works. With a known location, it took only a few minutes to acquire the image and reveal the radar interference. This image shows an S-300 system from the Kherson Oblast, a Russian-occupied region of Ukraine, which was neutralised days after the satellite captured the interference.

The S-300 is widely regarded as Russia’s counterpart to the US Patriot system. In Russia’s war on Ukraine, it is tasked with defending against missiles and aircraft but has recently been used to target Ukrainian civilians.

To date, only around nine Russian S-300 missile launchers have been confirmed destroyed over the course of the war. This illustrates how rare and highly protected they are, reserved for protecting the most vital assets and regions of the Russian military.

For better and worse

The S-300 is exported to Iran, China and many other nations. Russia’s is not the only military that may be compromised by the location of S-300 systems through public satellite imagery. Of course, these systems need to be in operation to emit interference.

This grants advantages to non-state combatants and states with less sophisticated militaries. These forces may be able to locate and potentially destroy hundred-million-dollar assets with publicly available data.

Ukraine’s military has shown how efficient low-cost drones can be in destroying expensive air defence systems. Open-source data, such as the electronic emissions collected from scientific satellites, illustrates how ordinary and even innocuous tools can be used for warfare.

The overall ethical implications of open-source intelligence are mixed. Public data may be used by malicious non-state actors or terrorist groups, for example.

On the other hand, analysts and journalists can use such processes and methods of data gathering and analysis to investigate war crimes and abuses of human rights or create more accurate reporting of events. The Institute for the Study of War, for instance, has employed satellite imagery and social media documentation to demonstrate Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders in 2021 and 2022, thereby exposing Russian intentions.

The future of open-source intelligence

Open-source intelligence, and the critical skills required to examine public data, have become increasingly important for militaries and intelligence organisations. However, open-source data platforms, such as satellite imagery provided by the European Space Agency, are likely to produce ongoing challenges for militaries.

How will the world respond? Institutions, business, government sites and other bodies may decide to cut off the flow of public data in order to reduce its unintentional impact.

This too would create challenges. Censorship of publicly available data would pose risks to transparency of information and degrade public trust in companies and public institutions. Removing public access to information would mean people and organisations with less money could no longer access it.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We tracked secret Russian missile launchers in Ukraine using public satellite data – https://theconversation.com/we-tracked-secret-russian-missile-launchers-in-ukraine-using-public-satellite-data-230424

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna DeMello, Research Fellow, University of Otago

Despite measures to reduce young people’s access to vapes, many countries are recording rising use by underage adolescents, especially since refillable “pod mods” and disposable devices have become widely available.

Vapes appeal to young people because of their sleek designs and flavours, but these products also carry risk. Vapes containing nicotine can cause addiction and non-smoking young people who vape are more likely to take up cigarette smoking.

Some countries have set a minimum legal sales age to curb underage use. In New Zealand, vapes are a notifiable product and, like tobacco products, must not be sold to people under 18. Australia has gone further, requiring a prescription to access nicotine-containing vapes.

However, youth vaping has continued to rise in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and in New Zealand, where the latest health survey found 20% of people between 15 and 17 had vaped in the past month. Nearly 28% of Māori youth vaped regularly, which suggests inequities similar to those observed in tobacco smoking.

We wanted to know how underage youth obtain vapes. We reviewed international research and found “social sourcing” (sharing between friends) was the most common access route. Underage vape users were also able to buy from commercial retailers, and some steal vapes.

Sharing appears rampant and opportunistic

We also conducted interviews with 30 New Zealand adolescents (aged 16-17) who vape to probe how they accessed vaping products. This research explains the varied ways these adolescents obtain nicotine-containing vapes and exposes serious gaps in current policy.

All participants reported sharing vapes with friends and family members, work acquaintances or people they met socially. Sharing helped participants bond more deeply with their friends and connect to new social groups.

We all try each other’s [vapes …] I can’t even explain how big [this] is […] If I’m with my friends, I’m probably not using my vape, I’m using theirs.

Sharing others’ vapes allowed some participants to avoid owning their own device (or purchasing infrequently, on special occasions). They felt uncommitted to vaping and in control of their use.

I still just do it socially […] for fun. In the three years I’ve been vaping, I’ve never owned one. I’ve tried to keep it under control, not let it affect me too much.

Relying on ‘proxies’ to purchase vapes

Most participants asked “proxies” (older friends or siblings over 18) to purchase vapes for them. Once participants had an established buyer they tended to rely on this person, who would often supply a wider underage peer group.

There’s always [someone with] an older sibling or [person] that’s fine with buying for them. [So] everybody will ask them whenever they want [product].

Proxies typically supplied people they knew at no extra cost, but sometimes charged a fee (up to NZ$10 above the cost of the vapes and e-liquid refills).

There’s that one 18-year-old at school always doing it. He charges $5 more than what a vape costs […] that’s why they come to him. They know he’ll be available, no questions asked.

A minority asked “randoms” (people they did not know) who they met on social media to buy vapes for them. Alternatively, some approached people they saw outside retail shops and asked if they would purchase products for them.

Underage youth purchase vapes themselves

Nearly all participants knew of retailers who sold to underage people; many had bought vaping products from a “dodgy dairy” that did not ask them for an ID. Several knew peers who used fake IDs.

There [are] certain dairies that people always know of [by] word of mouth. Someone would go in and not get ID’d, then tell people.

Many also knew of younger adolescents who had purchased vapes in person.

There’s so many kids who do that. That’s how the 13 and 14-year-olds get it, because they wouldn’t be friends with 18-year-olds. They just try their luck.

Our study found access routes sit on a continuum from spontaneous sharing to “proxy” purchasing to self-purchasing.

Reports that underage people buy vapes directly from small shops support the government’s proposal to introduce escalating retailer fines. But it also suggests we need stronger retailer monitoring and enforcement.

It is also crucial to disrupt social supply routes, including sharing and proxy purchasing. We believe we need upstream policy measures that reduce the widespread availability and appeal of vaping products, including the following:

• limiting product sales to age-restricted specialist shops

• capping vape retailer numbers to lower density

• restricting all (current and future) general and specialist vape retailers from operating within 500 metres of schools and marae

• monitoring the impact of a ban on sales of disposable vapes (as the government plans to do) to ensure this measure is not undermined by, for instance, allowing new low-cost refillable devices to enter the market.

Janet Hoek receives funding from the Heatlh Research Council and NZ Cancer Society; she has previously received funding from the Royal Society Marsden Fund. She is a member of several advisory committees, including the Health Coalition Aotearoa and international government and NGO groups. She has received travel support to speak at international conferences and small gifts in recognition for having spoken at conferences.

Anna DeMello does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Underage vaping is on the rise: here’s how young New Zealanders are finding it so easy to access – https://theconversation.com/underage-vaping-is-on-the-rise-heres-how-young-new-zealanders-are-finding-it-so-easy-to-access-230384

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Newton, Professor of Exercise Medicine, Edith Cowan University

With so many high-profile people diagnosed with cancer we are confronted with the stark reality the disease can strike any of us at any time. There are also reports certain cancers are increasing among younger people in their 30s and 40s.

On the positive side, medical treatments for cancer are advancing very rapidly. Survival rates are improving greatly and some cancers are now being managed more as long-term chronic diseases rather than illnesses that will rapidly claim a patient’s life.

The mainstays of cancer treatment remain surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, immunotherapy, targeted therapy and hormone therapy. But there are other treatments and strategies – “adjunct” or supportive cancer care – that can have a powerful impact on a patient’s quality of life, survival and experience during cancer treatment.

Keep moving if you can

Physical exercise is now recognised as a medicine. It can be tailored to the patient and their health issues to stimulate the body and build an internal environment where cancer is less likely to flourish. It does this in a number of ways.

Exercise provides a strong stimulus to our immune system, increasing the number of cancer-fighting immune cells in our blood circulation and infusing these into the tumour tissue to identify and kill cancer cells.

Our skeletal muscles (those attached to bone for movement) release signalling molecules called myokines. The larger the muscle mass, the more myokines are released – even when a person is at rest. However, during and immediately after bouts of exercise, a further surge of myokines is secreted into the bloodstream. Myokines attach to immune cells, stimulating them to be better “hunter-killers”. Myokines also signal directly to cancer cells slowing their growth and causing cell death.

Exercise can also greatly reduce the side effects of cancer treatment such as fatigue, muscle and bone loss, and fat gain. And it reduces the risk of developing other chronic diseases such as heart disease and type 2 diabetes. Exercise can maintain or improve quality of life and mental health for patients with cancer.

Emerging research evidence indicates exercise might increase the effectiveness of mainstream treatments such as chemotherapy and radiation therapy. Exercise is certainly essential for preparing the patient for any surgery to increase cardio-respiratory fitness, reduce systemic inflammation, and increase muscle mass, strength and physical function, and then rehabilitating them after surgery.

These mechanisms explain why cancer patients who are physically active have much better survival outcomes with the relative risk of death from cancer reduced by as much as 40–50%.

Mental health helps

The second “tool” which has a major role in cancer management is psycho-oncology. It involves the psychological, social, behavioural and emotional aspects of cancer for not only the patient but also their carers and family. The aim is to maintain or improve quality of life and mental health aspects such as emotional distress, anxiety, depression, sexual health, coping strategies, personal identity and relationships.

Supporting quality of life and happiness is important on their own, but these barometers can also impact a patient’s physical health, response to exercise medicine, resilience to disease and to treatments.

If a patient is highly distressed or anxious, their body can enter a flight or fight response. This creates an internal environment that is actually supportive of cancer progression through hormonal and inflammatory mechanisms. So it’s essential their mental health is supported.

Putting the good things in: diet

A third therapy in the supportive cancer care toolbox is diet. A healthy diet can support the body to fight cancer and help it tolerate and recover from medical or surgical treatments.

Inflammation provides a more fertile environment for cancer cells. If a patient is overweight with excessive fat tissue then a diet to reduce fat which is also anti-inflammatory can be very helpful. This generally means avoiding processed foods and eating predominantly fresh food, locally sourced and mostly plant based.

Muscle loss is a side effect of all cancer treatments. Resistance training exercise can help but people may need protein supplements or diet changes to make sure they get enough protein to build muscle. Older age and cancer treatments may reduce both the intake of protein and compromise absorption so supplementation may be indicated.

Depending on the cancer and treatment, some patients may require highly specialised diet therapy. Some cancers such as pancreatic, stomach, esophageal, and lung cancer can cause rapid and uncontrolled drops in body weight. This is called cachexia and needs careful management.

Other cancers and treatments such as hormone therapy can cause rapid weight gain. This also needs careful monitoring and guidance so that, when a patient is clear of cancer, they are not left with higher risks of other health problems such as cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome (a cluster of conditions that boost your risk of heart disease, stroke and type 2 diabetes).

Working as a team

These are three of the most powerful tools in the supportive care toolbox for people with cancer. None of them are “cures” for cancer, alone or together. But they can work in tandem with medical treatments to greatly improve outcomes for patients.

If you or someone you care about has cancer, national and state cancer councils and cancer-specific organisations can provide support.

For exercise medicine support it is best to consult with an accredited exercise physiologist, for diet therapy an accredited practising dietitian and mental health support with a registered psychologist. Some of these services are supported through Medicare on referral from a general practitioner.

For free and confidential cancer support call the Cancer Council on 13 11 20.

Rob Newton receives funding from NHMRC, Cancer Council WA, Cancer Australia, World Cancer Research Foundation.

– ref. Exercise, therapy and diet can all improve life during cancer treatment and boost survival. Here’s how – https://theconversation.com/exercise-therapy-and-diet-can-all-improve-life-during-cancer-treatment-and-boost-survival-heres-how-226720

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Snow, Research Scientist, CSIRO

How often do you check your local weather forecast? How about your local climate projections for 2050? For many farmers, the answer to the first question is all the time. But the answer to the second is almost certainly less than that, even though this information is crucial for understanding climate-related risks and opportunities on their patch.

We know climate change could slash Australian farm profits by as much as 32% if agriculture continues as usual. Fortunately, farmers are very good at adapting to other challenges. Developing a better understanding of how the climate will change over the coming decades will help farmers prepare and adapt.

The decision-making process will vary depending on the location and the nature of the business, but it will become increasingly important to engage and respond to climate-related risks. These may include drought, flood, fire, extreme heat or greater rainfall variability. The changing climate can also present opportunities, such as being able to branch out into growing crops or varieties not previously suited to that area.

We wanted to present this information to farmers in a more engaging and meaningful way. So we designed a free tool called My Climate View.

We also interviewed farmers to find out if (and how) My Climate View might help them identify or safeguard against future climate risks. Armed with this knowledge, they might respond by shoring up on-farm water security, diversifying their farming, or adapting their future investment decisions. Whatever the case may be, our tool can get farmers thinking and talking about climate in a different way. And that’s a great start.

Making climate risks personal

Many Australian farmers are experts at using weather information. But they tend to be less familiar with long-term climate projections, to 2050 and beyond.

My Climate View is a collaborative project developed by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology to help Australian farmers and producers better understand the risks and opportunities they face over the next 50 years.

It is part of the A$29 million Climate Services for Agriculture program funded through the Australian government’s Future Drought Fund.

My Climate View provides past climate data, seasonal forecasts and future climate projections at a 5-square-kilometre resolution across Australia.

Users set their location and what they produce. Then they receive commodity-specific information about the future climate in their area.

They can also modify many of the variables, such as growing season length or extreme heat thresholds to see how the output changes, further increasing the relevance of the information to their own farm’s circumstances.

In our new research, we asked 24 Australian farmers about the biggest climate risks they face before and after a demonstration of My Climate View.

We found My Climate View clarified the risks and made the whole issue far more relevant to them (we call that reducing the “psychological distance”).

After the demonstration, perceptions of future climate risks became less ambiguous and more tangible. The farmers began to discuss ways to adapt, such as switching varieties, increasing water security or changing management practices.

Why including end-users in design matters

The ability to discuss risks in this way with farmers depends on the projections being relevant and usable to them in the first place.

This is why it’s so important to involve the end users in the product design process. We need to make sure future climate information is presented in a way that is useful, understandable and actionable to farmers and farm advisors.

We also found farmers to be an untapped source of expertise. They are highly familiar and sometimes even a little bit obsessed with the weather.

Farmers interpret weather information in the context of their knowledge of the land. We want to enable users to apply their local knowledge in My Climate View as well. We can facilitate this by allowing users to tailor the climate projections to what they know works for their farm, such as setting their own thresholds for heatwaves or adjusting the “growing season” months to match their own.

When discussing early prototypes of My Climate View, we found farmers valued the information, but found the original interface “data-heavy”. These insights informed efforts to streamline and simplify the interface into its current form, making it more inclusive and user-friendly.

Kickstarting the climate conversation

Online tools are designed for people to access on their own, anytime and anywhere. But deciding how to adapt to climate change is rarely a purely individual decision. It’s often a collaborative process, with decisions shaped by conversations with advisors, family and peers. That’s because climate risk and adaptation is complex.

There are so many variables to consider, such as market factors, local circumstances (such as farm type, soil type, finances) and personal capacity for change. Climate information is most engaging when it relates directly to someone’s own location and livelihood.

Talking through the on-farm options is much more powerful than reading a report or looking at a trend line on a graph. This discussion might be with a researcher, an advisor, an industry group, a neighbour or family. Including farm advisors – as well as farmers – in design, helps My Climate View kickstart conversations and inform discussions.

Adapting to a distant and uncertain future climate is difficult. But our research shows interactive tools such as My Climate View can help farmers start making difficult decisions around adapting to future climate risks right now.

An exciting new chapter

Being able to access future climate projections as easily as checking the weather represents an exciting new chapter in climate science communication.

It’s no longer enough to simply provide the latest information on climate science. To tackle this challenge effectively, we all need to work together.

We need to start conversations, listen to farmers, work with farm advisers and find new ways to leverage all of this expertise. Only then can we make tools that are truly accessible, inclusive and useful to help future-proof Australian agriculture.

Read more:
Every Australian will be touched by climate change. So let’s start a national conversation about how we’ll cope

Aysha Fleming receives funding from the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

Yuwan Malakar receives funding from the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF).

Stephen Snow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We’re helping farmers access future climate projections as easily as checking the weather – https://theconversation.com/were-helping-farmers-access-future-climate-projections-as-easily-as-checking-the-weather-227761

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kylie Turner, System Lead, Sustainable Economies, Climateworks Centre

In the budget last week, the government was keen to talk about its efforts to turn Australia into a renewable superpower under the umbrella of the Future Made in Australia policies.

Future Made is a framework that sets out how to target green subsidies to drive investment in everything from solar to critical minerals to green hydrogen. The policy lands at a time when the world is racing towards a future green economy. America has its Inflation Reduction Act, while the European Union has its Green Deal and China has powered ahead with green technologies.

The government hopes to make the most of Australia’s comparative advantage in this global context. Over 50 countries now have policies like this.

Future Made includes $1.9 billion in new funding for the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, $7 billion in tax incentives for critical mineral producers, and $1.5 billion for solar panel and battery manufacturing. Each of these has proven themselves. The renewable agency funded some of our first large-scale solar farms. Critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt and rare-earth elements are in demand to make electric vehicle batteries. And Australia is the world leader in rooftop solar, but makes almost none of the panels.

But what about green hydrogen, an industry still in its infancy? Future Made now has about $8 billion on offer to help kickstart Australia’s green hydrogen industry. Subsidies would cover the initial difference between the cost of production and current market price, until economies of scale kick in and the subsidy is phased out.

Renewable hydrogen is essential to make green iron, green steel and green ammonia, which we can use here or export.

Government-backed hydrogen?

Economists have long been critical of governments picking winners. To avoid this problem, Australia’s government has included a series of tests which have to be passed before it will invest public money. This rigour is worth praising.

These tests include how competitive the company is, how it will contribute to net zero, how it builds the capability of people and regions and how it would deliver value for money. As the government moves to become more interventionist, these tests act as a net zero filter, allocating public funds to enterprises which pass these tests. Scaled up, it will begin to shape the economy in ways compatible with net zero.

When applied to green hydrogen, these tests suggest it would be much more economic to produce green iron close to where green hydrogen is produced. That’s because hydrogen is difficult to transport.

You can make green hydrogen by using renewable electricity to split water – even better if you do it in the day, to soak up cheap solar power. The primary technology – machines called electrolysers – is becoming cheaper and more readily available.

Climateworks has modelled different emission reduction scenarios for the whole economy and found green hydrogen can play a role in the race to net zero – especially in sectors it’s not technically possible or too expensive to electrify, such as ammonia production, iron ore production, and heavy transport.

Making commercially viable green hydrogen at scale will be essential if we are to get to net zero. But without established local and global demand, public investment is needed to kickstart this industry at scale. That way, when the momentum builds for green hydrogen, Australia will be positioned to make best use of our comparative advantages and move from a smattering of pilot plants to large scale production.

If we get this right, we will be in demand globally. With our established export relationships, green hydrogen and the products it can help us make will be big ticket export items.

Right now, there’s a chicken and egg problem. Companies are reluctant to front up the initial capital costs if there’s uncertainty about who will buy the product. To scale up, then, means a mixture of grants and concessional finance to encourage entrants.

And because green hydrogen is trying to displace fossil fuels, manufacturers need to persuade buyers to shift. Steel magnate Sanjeev Gupta is confident many buyers will pay a little extra for green steel made with hydrogen with no need for subsidies, but we can’t yet see this in any uptick in demand.

Without established local and global demand, public investment is needed to kick start this industry at scale. The Future Made in Australia net zero filter sets out questions about competitiveness, emissions and more which must be asked and answered for Australia to spend public dollars efficiently. Applying these tests consistently will help us avoid the problems which come when we pick winners without enough evidence.

Under Climateworks’ modelling for a 1.5°C scenario, local renewable hydrogen production could grow steadily until 2030 and then accelerate rapidly to 2045.

It is true green hydrogen is having a sluggish start. Worldwide, electrolyser capacity is currently far outstripping demand, except in China. In part, this is because green hydrogen will have most use in industry, which has been slower to decarbonise.

Future Made and similar policies around the world offer a chance – not a certainty – of cracking the chicken and egg problem. If done well, Future Made could be the running start Australia needs to gain the benefits from our comparative advantages in world class solar and wind resources, critical minerals, a skilled workforce, established export relationships and the sheer size of our landmass and coastline to host large scale projects.

The managers of almost half of the world’s privately managed money have pledged to invest in line with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. It’s time for us to put Australia’s public investment to work. On green hydrogen, we could shoot to the front of the pack. It’s still up for grabs.

Read more:
Green industry yes, conservation no: a budget for people, not for nature

Kylie Turner is an employee of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University’s Sustainable Development Institute. Kylie Turner was most recently the program impact manager for the Australian Industry Energy Transitions Initiative funded by ARENA, philanthropy and industry participants, developing decarbonisation pathways to limit warming to 1.5℃.

Luke Brown is an employee of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University’s Sustainable Development Institute.

– ref. Will government investment make green hydrogen a reality in Australia? – https://theconversation.com/will-government-investment-make-green-hydrogen-a-reality-in-australia-230202

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton might have done us a favour.

As part of his budget reply speech on Thursday night he promised to stop foreigners buying existing Australian homes.

He didn’t only want to stop foreigners buying existing homes to live in, something they are able to do while here temporarily, as long as they they sell within three months of moving out.

He also wanted to stop them buying existing Australian homes to let to renters. He wanted to stop them being landlords. Not because landlords deprive us of homes to live in (they don’t) but because they deprive us of homes to own.

Every existing home that is owned by a landlord is a home that isn’t owned by an owner-occupier. It’s maths.

Foreign investors outbid residents

It was, Dutton said, pretty unfair to be at an auction “bidding against somebody who has very deep pockets and somebody who’s not an Australian citizen”.

Stopping foreign investors would help restore the “dream of home ownership”.

Here’s the favour. Dutton has pointed out something that’s true for all investors. By bidding against people who want to buy existing homes to live in, they are pushing up the price of those homes. When they succeed in buying an extra home, they ensure an owner-occupier does not.

Dutton has spelled out the maths.

He has acknowledged that, for foreign investors, the numbers aren’t big. It’s already hard for them to buy existing properties. In 2021-22, the most recent year for which we have figures, only 1,339 foreign investors bought existing properties.

But he told 3AW’s Tom Elliott that if there was anything that could be done, no matter how little, he would “jump at it”.

Local investors also outbid residents

There is something much bigger that could be done, which is to extend his idea to all would-be investors – every one of them who turns up at an auction for an existing property and bids against someone who wants to buy it to live in.

It’s hard to think of reasons why investors should be supported to bid against intending homebuyers. In the quarter century since the headline rate of capital gains tax was halved in 1999, investors have been supported by a particularly effective blend of negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions.

An extraordinary 2.2 million Australians now own investment properties – one in every six taxpayers. Seventy percent of them own two investment properties or more.

In the census before the change, 25.5% of households headed by someone aged 35-54 rented. In the most recent census it was 33.7%.

This isn’t because of a shortage of supply. It’s because a bigger chunk of the supply has been grabbed by landlords at the expense of Australians who in earlier years would have owned.

Had that bigger chunk not been grabbed, hundreds of thousands more Australians would own the homes they live in.

No one objects to investors who build new homes, increasing supply – certainly not Dutton. The two-year ban he put forward in his budget reply speech would have only stopped foreign investors buying existing properties. There would be nothing to stop them building and letting out new ones.

That’s how you would design a grander Dutton-style plan that applied to all investors. Labor put one forward at the 2016 and 2019 elections.

Labor had a plan like Dutton’s

Under Labor’s 2019 plan, negative gearing – the tax break that allows investors to write off losses they make from renters against their wage income – would no longer be available to new investors, except those who actually provided new homes.

Labor planned to

put negative gearing to work by limiting it to new investment properties to help boost housing supply and jobs

Negative gearing isn’t being put to work right now.

In March, the most recent month for which we have statistics, only 2,048 of Australia’s 16,948 property investment loans were for building new homes. Most of the rest went to investors who were going to compete against would-be residents to buy existing properties.

Labor says that’s no longer its plan. On ABC Q&A on Monday Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he “wasn’t attracted” to the idea of changing negative gearing.

Yet he repeatedly said there was “no substitute for building new homes”

What Labor proposed in 2016 and 2019 would have directed investors towards building new homes.

It’s worth doing both because it would help create new homes and because it would reduce the number of would-be landlords going up against would-be homeowners at auctions.

One of those intending homebuyers, Jessica Whitby, who was outbid at an auction in Chalmers’ electorate, asked him on Monday to “disincentivise people who are purchasing multiple investment properties to assist first home buyers to get into the market sooner”.

Chalmers replied the thing that mattered most was supply, but he didn’t mention that what Whitby was proposing used to be Labor Party policy, didn’t acknowledge that it would encourage supply, and didn’t acknowledge that (in theory at least) Dutton appears to agree with him.

Support from many quarters

And not only Dutton. Scott Morrison expressed concern about the “excesses” of negative gearing as treasurer in 2016. His predecessor, Joe Hockey, said on leaving parliament that negative gearing should be skewed toward new housing so there was “an incentive to add to the housing stock”.

It’s as if almost everyone can see the sort of thing that needs to be done.

Australia’s negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions are incredibly expensive. The treasury costs negative gearing alone at $2.7 billion per year.

At least in principle, there’s agreement about how to make it work for us.

Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.

– ref. Peter Dutton makes Labor’s case. Tax breaks for landlords should be restricted to those who build homes – https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-makes-labors-case-tax-breaks-for-landlords-should-be-restricted-to-those-who-build-homes-230518

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amy Maguire, Associate Professor in Human Rights and International Law, University of Newcastle

The request by Karim Khan, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), for arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders is a significant step in the effort to bring justice to the victims of international crimes in Israel and Palestine.

Khan has asked ICC judges to issue warrants on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes against Yahya Sinwar (head of Hamas in Gaza), Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri (also known as Mohammed Deif, the commander of the military wing of Hamas) and Ismail Haniyeh (head of Hamas’ political bureau, based in Qatar).

They are alleged to bear responsibility for international crimes on Israeli and Palestinian territory at least since October 7 2023.

Khan has also requested arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, again for war crimes and crimes against humanity. They are alleged to be responsible for crimes in the Gaza Strip since October 8 2023.

What have they been accused of?

Sinwar, Al-Masri and Haniyeh are charged in relation to the attacks on Israeli civilians on October 7, in which an estimated 1,200 Israeli civilians were killed and at least 245 taken hostage.

In addition, the Hamas leaders are accused of other crimes in the context of the ongoing conflict in Gaza. These include:

• extermination
• murder
• hostage taking
• rape and other acts of sexual violence
• torture
• cruel treatment

Khan said in his statement:

I saw the devastating scenes of these attacks and the profound impact of the unconscionable crimes charged in the applications filed today. Speaking with survivors, I heard how the love within a family, the deepest bonds between a parent and a child, were contorted to inflict unfathomable pain through calculated cruelty and extreme callousness. These acts demand accountability.

Khan noted his office conducted extensive investigations, including site visits and interviews with victim survivors, and relied on evidence relating to the conditions in which Israeli hostages have been held in Gaza.

Netanyahu and Gallant are alleged to be criminally responsible for a number of international crimes since Israel launched its military action against Hamas in Gaza on October 8, including:

• starvation of civilians as a method of warfare
• wilfully causing great suffering
• wilful killing
• intentional attacks against a civilian population
• extermination and/or murder
• persecution.

The prosecutor said the alleged crimes:

… were committed as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the Palestinian civilian population pursuant to state policy. These crimes, in our assessment, continue to this day.

Noting the horrific suffering of civilians in Gaza, including tens of thousands of casualties and catastrophic hunger, Khan alleged that the means Netanyahu and Gallant chose to pursue Israel’s military aims in Gaza

…namely, intentionally causing death, starvation, great suffering, and serious injury to body or health of the civilian population – are criminal.

What does this mean in practice?

The next step in this process is for three judges in the ICC pre-trial chamber to decide if there are reasonable grounds to believe war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed. If so, they will issue arrest warrants. It could take months for the judges to make this assessment.

If arrest warrants are issued, however, they are very unlikely to be executed. And if none of the accused can be arrested, then no trial will take place because the ICC does not try people in absentia.

So, why is it unlikely the accused will be arrested? There are several reasons.

First, none of the accused will hand themselves in for prosecution. Netanyahu was outraged by Khan’s decision, calling it “a moral outrage of historic proportions” and accusing him of antisemitism.

Hamas has issued a statement strongly denouncing the issuing of arrest warrants against its leaders, claiming it equates “the victim with the executioner”.

Read more:
There has been much talk of war crimes in the Israel-Gaza conflict. But will anyone actually be prosecuted?

Second, none of the accused are likely to put themselves in a position to be arrested and turned over to the ICC. Israel is not a signatory to the Rome Statute that established the ICC. Its chief ally, the United States, is also not a member. This would guarantee Netanyahu and Gallant could travel to the US without fear of arrest.

Meanwhile, Haniyeh is based in Qatar, which is also not an ICC member state. He may need to curtail travel to other states to avoid risk of arrest. The other two accused Hamas leaders are believed to be hiding in Gaza – they appear more at risk of being killed by Israeli forces than arrest.

However, Palestine is an ICC member state, so technically it is obliged to cooperate with the court. In practice, though, it is hard to see how this will happen.

Third, the ICC relies on its member states to enforce its actions. It has no independent police force or capacity to execute arrest warrants.

The ICC has 124 state parties, while the United Nations has 193 member states. This disparity makes clear the gap between what the ICC seeks to achieve – namely, universal accountability for international crimes – and what it can practically achieve when it lacks the support of implicated or nonaligned countries.

What does this mean for the ICC?

Khan’s move is unprecedented in one respect. This is the first time the prosecutor’s office has brought charges against a head of state who is supported by Western nations.

The move triggered a predictable response from the US. President Joe Biden called it “outrageous” and added:

…there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.

But Khan emphasised the importance of the ICC’s independence and impartiality, as well as the equal application of law.

No foot soldier, no commander, no civilian leader – no one – can act with impunity.

The ICC has previously confirmed its jurisdiction over crimes allegedly committed by the five leaders this week. The prosecutor will be confident the pre-trial chamber will issue the arrest warrants, based on the highly visible nature of the alleged crimes and the volume of evidence available to show reasonable grounds for prosecution.

The request for arrest warrants undoubtedly complicates relations between Israel and its allies that are ICC member states. In such a politically charged context, it is fair to describe this effort as a test of the international community’s commitment to the goal of ending impunity for international crimes.

Amy Maguire receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a member of Australian Lawyers for Human Rights.

– ref. ‘No one can act with impunity’: ICC arrest warrants in Israel-Hamas war are a major test for international justice – https://theconversation.com/no-one-can-act-with-impunity-icc-arrest-warrants-in-israel-hamas-war-are-a-major-test-for-international-justice-230522

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nina Lansbury, Associate Professor in Public Health, The University of Queensland

Last week’s federal budget committed A$12.5 million over four years to deliver tampons, pads and other period care products to people who menstruate in rural and remote Indigenous communities.

The provision of these products will be coordinated by the National Aboriginal Community-Controlled Health Organisation (NACCHO), the peak body for Indigenous-controlled health clinics in Australia. These clinics are often highly trusted and well-attended by people in rural and remote Indigenous communities due to their culturally sensitive and holistic approaches to health and wellbeing.

This move follows financial support for menstrual products more broadly over the past few years, including the provision of free period products in public schools across all Australian states and territories.

But people who menstruate in rural and remote Indigenous communities face a unique set of challenges, and have a particular need for better access to period products.

Menstruation in Indigenous communities

One of us (Minnie King) is an Indigenous woman. I have seen members of my family and community challenged at times during menstruation by a lack of period products, as a result of low availability and choice, and high cost. I’ve also witnessed limited knowledge among young people of their changing bodies.

All of these issues are exacerbated by remoteness, which increases costs and reduces access to services.

To open a positive discussion of this natural cycle, the two of us, together with other colleagues, have been involved in a research project on menstrual health in Indigenous communities. We spoke to students and women in these communities about the challenges they face in managing their periods.

Participants have told us about being unable to store period products in their crowded homes, and of other barriers to accessing and using period products, such as cost. In many cases this has meant using alternatives such as wads of toilet paper or cut up clothing.

Reusable products

The advent of reusable period care products in the past decade, including reusable cups, underwear and pads, has offered more options for people who menstruate. Quality products can wash and wear for up to ten years. In essence, this means they’re “inflation-proof”.

Participants in our research talked about not knowing about or being able to purchase reusable options such as pads, cups and underwear.

Our work has distributed both single-use and reusable period care products to people who menstruate in remote Indigenous communities.

When school students in remote Western Cape York trialled reusable period underwear and pads, they told us these products were discreet to wear. They also saw advantages such as the fact reusable products remove the need for waste disposal (with both convenience and environmental benefits), are cheaper over the long term, and can always be available.

These findings suggest NACCHO may wish to offer reusable as well as single-use period products with the budget funding.

Why the budget announcement is needed

Too often, remote and Indigenous voices are not heard by decision-makers. The specific menstruation challenges and costs these people face are likely to be unfamiliar to those living in cities or financially privileged settings.

We were therefore very pleased to see funding in the budget to provide free menstrual products in these communities.

Yet this doesn’t resolve the many associated issues affecting menstrual health in remote Indigenous communities, such as the need for culturally targeted and timely education about menstrual health. This is an opportunity for community-led efforts.

We are currently writing a free teaching guide on menstrual health based on remote and Indigenous students’ views and requests for what they would like to know. This includes information about the types, use, availability and disposal of period care products. It also includes information about the biological reasons for periods and ways that local students have shared to manage the challenges of mood swings and discomfort.

Our teaching guide will augment the existing, non-Indigenous and minimal period education that exists in the Australian curriculum. It will be released later this year.

A step towards ‘period parity’

Providing free menstrual products through NACCHO in remote and rural Indigenous communities is pertinent to the first outcome in the broader target of the National Agreement on Closing the Gap in Indigenous inequity: that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people enjoy long and healthy lives.

Appropriate period care products can enable girls, women and other people who menstruate to participate in school, work, family and recreation, whatever day of the month.

The budget funding for period products through the community-oriented networks of NACCHO supports our aspiration for menstrual health equity, or “period parity”, for all.

Nina Lansbury’s research is supported with funding from the NHMRC, the Federal Government, Health Translation Queensland and the University of Queensland.

Minnie King does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The budget pledged $12.5 million for free menstrual products in Indigenous communities. Here’s why it’s needed – https://theconversation.com/the-budget-pledged-12-5-million-for-free-menstrual-products-in-indigenous-communities-heres-why-its-needed-230118

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Renwick, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Lincoln University, New Zealand

Fonterra caught the business world by surprise last week with plans to sell off its consumer brands and businesses – including supermarket mainstays such as Anchor, Fresh’n Fruity and Mainland. The move has been described as the “most dramatic major structural change” in the company’s 23-year history.

There are several possible explanations for this shift in direction for the dairy giant.

Consumer markets have long been a cornerstone of Fonterra’s business strategy. In 2023, the cooperative reported NZ$3.3 billion in revenue earnings from its consumer brands. This benefited Fonterra and farmers alike.

Fonterra now hopes to use the sale of its consumer brands to invest in the business-to-business side of the company. Economic conditions may have played a part in the decision – but it is clearly not the only reason.

High inflation and low economic growth have put pressure on food brands, both in New Zealand and globally. This has been reflected in the performance of the consumer side of Fonterra’s business, which lost $164 million after tax in 2023.

That said, the ongoing visibility and growth of Fonterra’s brands in emerging economies such as Sri Lanka, China and Southeast Asia, and improved performance in this financial year, seem to indicate all is not lost with the consumer market.

Branding the essentials

One of the fundamental challenges for Fonterra is the nature of what they sell. Core products such as milk, butter and cheese are seen as commodities by consumers. Shoppers generally believe there is little difference in quality between generic or supermarket labels and branded alternatives.

When finances are tight, purchasing decisions will be driven by price. To maintain (and justify) higher prices, branded products need to continually communicate their value and brand story.

This can be time consuming and costly. And there can be a fine line between adding value and simply adding costs. If investment is focused on other parts of the business, there is an increased risk of the brands losing value – especially in the face of intense competition.

So the move away from consumer products may not actually mean a move away from adding value for Fonterra.

Food manufacturers like Fonterra can add value by building partnerships with other businesses. The dairy cooperative may gain more from working with other companies to develop new products, or by helping them solve technical challenges, than it can from simply selling the ingredients themselves.

Irish food manufacturer the Kerry Group has developed innovation centres in Ireland and overseas – including in Australia, for example. A focus on partnerships and innovation has paid dividends for Fonterra as well.

Implications for New Zealand

Farmers could earn up to a potential $3.4 billion from the sale of Fonterra’s consumer businesses. They could benefit further from the simplified focus on selling high-value ingredients to food service customers.

However, losing such iconic brands domestically and internationally is a risk. Fonterra is, in essence, becoming an ingredient supplier dependent on the strategies of other businesses.

This could become an issue as competition from alternative proteins grows. While food manufacturers may find it easy to replace dairy as an ingredient in their products, it would be more difficult to eliminate an entire category such as butter or milk from the supermarket aisle.

It’s expected Fonterra would keep supplying milk for its former brands after they are sold. But there is no requirement for the new owners to source their milk from New Zealand.

When Fonterra sold the rights to the Anchor brand in Europe, the butter was initially sourced from New Zealand. After a relatively short time, manufacturing moved to the United Kingdom.

Some have suggested the sell-off could result in higher prices for consumers, on the basis that foreign owners might have less loyalty to the local community than Fonterra. But this argument is flawed.

Fonterra is a global business and has not kept prices low for New Zealanders in the past. In fact, some argue the opposite has happened.

The relationship between New Zealand’s two dominant supermarkets (Woolworths and Foodstuffs) and the two main suppliers of dairy products (Fonterra and Goodman Fielder) has been described as cosy. Critics have argued this has kept prices high.

Continued dominance of the dairy industry

Understanding the impact on consumers is made more complex by the competition landscape in New Zealand. Fonterra is required to supply milk to their main competitor, Goodman Fielder, at a price set by the Dairy Industry Regulation Act.

How the actual market will work if Fonterra sells its consumer side is unclear, although it’s likely the price will still be regulated to prevent Fonterra exploiting its monopoly position.

But a new entrant could also source at least some of its supply from other processors. This will depend, in part, on who the buyer is.

Any interest from Goodman Fielder is likely to attract the interest of the Commerce Commission. Earlier consolidation has been approved by the Commission but this would be on a different scale.

It’s more likely transnational companies such as Nestlé or Danone will be interested in buying the consumer side of Fonterra’s business, with an eye to growing markets across the globe.

As noted by Fonterra itself, there is the potential for these companies to extract greater value from the brand. Adding the products to their existing portfolios may enable greater economies of scale and scope, reducing marketing and logistics costs.

A move away from the consumer side may seem a radical change in strategy. But if Fonterra is doing this because it sees its business-to-business operation as having more growth and profit potential than branded consumer products, perhaps it’s again moving to the most attractive part of the value chain.

In that case, its underlying strategy hasn’t changed at all.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Farewell Anchor, Fresh’n Fruity and Mainland: what’s behind Fonterra’s decision to sell its consumer brands? – https://theconversation.com/farewell-anchor-freshn-fruity-and-mainland-whats-behind-fonterras-decision-to-sell-its-consumer-brands-230401

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Small, Senior lecturer, Above the Bar School of Educational Studies and Leadership, University of Canterbury

With an air force plane on its way to rescue New Zealanders stranded by the violent uprising in New Caledonia, many familiar with the island’s history are experiencing an unwelcome sense of déjà vu.

When I first visited the island territory in 1983, I interviewed Eloi Machoro, general secretary of the largest pro-independence party, L’Union Calédonienne. It was a position he had held since his predecessor, Pierre Declerq, was assassinated less than two years earlier.

Machoro was angry and frustrated with the socialist government in France, which had promised independence while in opposition, but was prevaricating after coming to power.

Tension was building, and within 18 months Machoro himself was killed by a French military sniper after leading a campaign to disrupt a vote on France’s plans for the territory.

I was in New Caledonia again last December, 40 years after my first visit, and Kanak anger and frustration seemed even more intense. On the anniversary of the 1984 Hienghène massacre, in which ten Kanak activists were killed in an ambush by armed settlers, there was a big demonstration in Nouméa.

Staged by a new activist group, the Coordination Unit for Actions on the Ground (CCAT), it focused on the visit of French defence minister Sébastien Lecornu, who was hosting a meeting of South Pacific defence ministers.

This followed the declaration by French president Emmanuel Macron, during a visit in July 2023, that the process set out in the 1998 Nouméa Accords had been concluded: independence was no longer an option because the people of New Caledonia had voted against it.

The sense of betrayal felt by the independence movement and many Kanak people was boiling over again. The endgame at this stage is unclear, and a lot will ride on talks in Paris later this month.

End of the Nouméa Accords

The Nouméa Accords had set out a framework the independence movement believed could work. Pro- and anti-independence groups, and the French government, agreed there would be three referendums, in 2018, 2020 and 2021.

A restricted electoral college was established that stipulated new migrants could still vote in French national elections, but not in New Caledonia’s provincial elections or independence referendums.

The independence movement had reason to trust this process. It had been guaranteed by a change to the French constitution that apparently protected it from the whims of any change of government in Paris.

The 2018 referendum returned a vote of 43% in favour of independence, significantly higher than most commentators were predicting. Two years later, the 47% in favour of independence sparked jubilant celebrations on the streets of Nouméa.

Arnaud Chollet-Leakava, founder and president of the Mouvement des Océaniens pour l’Indépendance (and member of CCAT), said he’d seen nothing like the spontaneous outpouring after the second referendum.

It was a party atmosphere all over Nouméa, with tooting horns and Kanak flags everywhere. You’d think we had won.

There was overwhelming confidence the movement had the momentum to achieve 50% in the final referendum. But in 2021, the country was ravaged by COVID, especially among Kanak communities. The independence movement asked for the third referendum to be postponed for six months.

Macron refused the request, the independence movement refused to participate, and the third referendum returned a 97% vote against independence. On that basis, France now insists the project set out in the Nouméa Accords has been completed.

Consensus and crisis

The current turmoil is directly related to the dismantling of the Nouméa Accords, and the resulting full electoral participation of thousands of recent immigrants.

France has effectively sided with the anti-independence camp and abandoned the commitment to consensus that had been a hallmark of French policy since the Matignon Accords in 1988.

Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) president Jean-Marie Tjibaou returned to New Caledonia after the famous Matignon handshake with anti-independence leader Jacques Lafleur. It took Tjibaou and his delegation two long meetings to convince the FLNKS to endorse the accords.

The Ouvéa hostage crisis that claimed 19 Kanak lives just weeks earlier had reminded people what France was capable of when its authority was challenged, and many activists were in no mood for compromise. But the movement did demobilise and commit to a decades-long consensus process that was to culminate in an independence vote.

With France unilaterally ending the process, the leaders of the independence movement have emerged empty-handed. That is what has enraged Kanak people and led to young people venting their anger on the streets.

A new kind of uprising

Unlike those of the 1980s, the current uprising was not planned and organised by leaders of the movement. It is a spontaneous and sustained popular outburst. This is also why independence leaders have been unable to stop it.

It has gone so far that Simon Loueckhote, a conservative Kanak leader who was a signatory of the Nouméa Accords for the anti-independence camp, wrote a public letter to Macron on Monday, calling for a halt to the current political strategy as the only way to end the current cycle of violence.

Finally, all this must be seen in even broader historical context. Kanak people were denied the right to vote until the 1950s – a century after France annexed their lands.

Barely 20 years later, New Caledonia’s then prime minister, Pierre Messmer, penned a now infamous letter to France’s overseas territories minister. It revealed a deliberate plan to thwart any potential threat to French rule in the colony by ensuring any nationalist movement was outnumbered by massive immigration.

And now France has brought new settlers into the country, and encouraged them to feel entitled to vote. Until a lasting solution is found, either by reviving the Nouméa Accords or agreement on a better model, more conflict seems inevitable.

David Small is affiliated with the Kanaky Aotearoa Solidarity group.

– ref. Déjà vu in New Caledonia: why decades of political failure will make this uprising hard to contain – https://theconversation.com/deja-vu-in-new-caledonia-why-decades-of-political-failure-will-make-this-uprising-hard-to-contain-230397