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Kamala Harris dips in key states, making US election contest a toss-up

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.5, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led by 49.3–46.2.

Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

Last Monday, Harris led by one to two points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six). In the last week, Trump has gained in all these states in Silver’s aggregates, reducing Harris’ lead to about one point in these states.

If Harris wins these four states, she probably wins the Electoral College by at least a 276–262 margin. Trump leads by less than one point in Georgia and North Carolina, which both have 16 electoral votes.

While Harris is still barely ahead in the Electoral College, her margins have been reduced in the states where she’s leading. As a result, Silver’s model now gives Harris a 52% chance to win the Electoral College, down from 56% last Monday.

This means the presidential election is effectively a 50–50 toss-up. There’s a 23% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight model
is giving similar results to Silver’s model, with Harris a 53% favourite.

There’s still over three weeks until the election, and polls could change in that time. The polls could also be biased against either Trump or Harris, and in this case that candidate could win easily. With the polls across the swing states so close, either candidate could sweep all these states.

I wrote about the US election for The Poll Bludger last Thursday, and also covered the UK Conservative leadership election, the far-right winning the most seats at the September 29 Austrian election and Japan’s October 27 election.

Favourability ratings and economic data

Harris’ net favourability peaked about two weeks ago at +1.4 in the FiveThirtyEight national poll aggregate, but it has now dropped back to net zero, with 46.8% favourable and 46.8% unfavourable. Harris’ net favourability had surged from about -16 after becoming the Democratic nominee, and she gained further ground after the September 10 debate with Trump.

Trump’s net favourability has been steady in the last two months, and he’s now at -9.4, with 52.6% unfavourable and 43.2% favourable. Harris’ running mate Tim Walz is at +4.2 net favourable and Trump’s running mate JD Vance is at -9.6 net favourable. Biden’s net approval remains poor at -14.0.

US headline inflation rose 0.2% in September, the same increase as in August. In the 12 months to September, inflation was up 2.4%, the smallest increase since 2021. Core inflation increased 0.3% in September, the same as in August, and is up 3.3% in the 12 months to September.

Real (inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings were up 0.2% in September after a 0.3% increase in August, while real weekly earnings slid 0.1% after a 0.6% increase in August owing to changes in hours worked. In the 12 months to September, real hourly earnings were up 1.5% and weekly earnings up 0.9%.

Congressional elections

I wrote about the elections for the House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election three weeks ago. The House has 435 single-member seats that are apportioned to states on a population basis, while there are two senators for each of the 50 states.

The House only has a two-year term, so the last House election was at the 2022 midterm elections, when Republicans won the House by 222–213 over Democrats. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls of the national House race gives Democrats a 47.1–45.9 lead over Republicans, a gain for Republican from a 46.7–44.5 Democratic lead three weeks ago.

Senators have six-year terms, with one-third up for election every two years. Democrats and aligned independents currently have a 51–49 Senate majority, but they are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up, including seats in three states Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

West Virginia is a certain Republican gain after the retirement of former Democratic (now independent) Senator Joe Manchin at this election. Republicans have taken a 5.4-point lead in Montana in the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate, while Democrats are just 2.3 points ahead in Ohio.

Republicans are being challenged by independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska, and he trails Republican Deb Fischer by just 1.5 points. Democrats did not contest to avoid splitting the vote. In other Senate contests, the incumbent party is at least four points ahead.

If Republicans gain West Virginia and Montana, but lose Nebraska to Osborn, and no other seats change hands, Republicans would have a 50–49 lead in the Senate. If Harris wins the presidency, Osborn would be the decisive vote as a Senate tie can be broken by the vice president, who would be Walz. This is the rosiest plausible scenario for Democrats.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Kamala Harris dips in key states, making US election contest a toss-up – https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-dips-in-key-states-making-us-election-contest-a-toss-up-241216

Coalition seizes Newspoll lead, but other polls have Labor improving

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll, conducted October 7–11 from a sample of 1,258, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. After three 50–50 ties in a row, this is the first time this term the Coalition has led in Newspoll.

Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 12% for all Others (steady). By 2022 election preference flows, these primary votes would normally give a 50–50 tie, so rounding probably contributed to the Coalition’s lead.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped six points to -14, his worst this term in Newspoll, with 54% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved one point to -14. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–37 (46–37 previously).

The graph below shows Albanese’s Newspoll net approval ratings this term. The data points are marked with plus signs and a smoothed line has been fitted. Albanese’s net approval has been below -10 in two of the last three Newspolls, causing the trend line to turn down.

Other federal polls last week had improvements for Labor, and Essential and Resolve last week both suggest the Middle East conflict has had virtually no impact on Australian party support. It’s possible this Newspoll is a pro-Coalition outlier.

Labor’s primary improves in Resolve poll

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted October 1–5 from a sample of 1,606, gave the Coalition 38% of the primary vote (up one since September), Labor 30% (up two), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down one), independents 12% (steady) and others 3% (down one).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate, but applying 2022 preference flows to the primary votes would give Labor about a 51–49 lead, unchanged from September.

Albanese’s net approval was unchanged at -18, with 53% giving him a poor rating and 35% a good rating. Dutton’s net approval improved one point to -1. Albanese led Dutton by 38–35 as preferred PM, a slight increase from 35–34 in September.

The Liberals led Labor by 38–26 on economic management (37–26 in September). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 31–24 (32–25 previously).

By 58–29, respondents said they would struggle to afford an expense of a few thousand dollars (57–31 in May). This is the highest “struggle to afford” since Resolve started tracking this question in February 2023, but Labor can take some comfort from the little change since May.

Asked who was most responsible for rising living costs, 36% selected the federal government, 13% global factors, 13% businesses, 12% the Reserve Bank and 8% state and territory governments. Labor incumbent Jim Chalmers led the Liberals’ Angus Taylor as preferred treasurer by 24–18.

If Australians could vote in the US presidential election, Kamala Harris would lead Donald Trump by 52–21 (50–25 in September). Before Joe Biden’s withdrawal in July, he led Trump by just 26–22 with Australians with 31% for “someone else”. Harris’ net likeability is +24, Trump’s is -47 and Biden’s is -25.

Labor gains lead in Essential poll

A national Essential poll, conducted October 2–6 from a sample of 1,139, gave Labor a 49–47 lead including undecided (48–47 to the Coalition in late September). Primary votes were 34% Coalition (down one), 32% Labor (up three), 12% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (steady).

On Israel’s military action, 32% said Israel should permanently withdraw from Gaza (down seven since August), 19% said Israel is justified (up two), 18% said Israel should agree to a temporary ceasefire (down three) and 32% were unsure (up eight).

On the Australian government’s response, 56% were satisfied (up five since August), 30% thought the government too supportive of Israel (down two) and 14% too harsh on Israel (down two).

By 40–27, voters would support a road user tax for electric vehicle drivers. Just 2% thought the gap between the rich and poor was decreasing, 71% thought it was increasing and 27% staying the same. On Australia’s political system, 48% thought it needs reform but is fundamentally sound, 40% said it needs fundamental change and just 12% said it’s working well.

Morgan poll tied

A national Morgan poll, conducted September 30 to October 6 from a sample of 1,697, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the September 23–29 poll.

Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (down 0.5), 31.5% Labor (up 1.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5.5% One Nation (up one), 9% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down 0.5).

The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by 52–48, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.

ACT election and NSW byelections this Saturday

The ACT uses the Hare Clark proportional method with five five-member electorates to elect its 25-member parliament, so a quota for election is one-sixth of the vote or 16.7%. The ACT is easily Australia’s most left-wing jurisdiction, and Labor has governed since 2001, often in coalition with the Greens. In 2020, Labor won ten seats, the Liberals nine and the Greens six.

There will also be three NSW state byelections this Saturday in the Liberal-held seats of Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater. Labor won’t be contesting any of these byelections. In Pittwater, Liberal Rory Amon defeated independent Jacqui Scruby by 50.7–49.3 at the 2023 state election. Amon resigned after being charged with child sex offences and Scruby will contest the byelection.

NSW and Victorian state polls

A NSW state Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal September and October Resolve polls from a sample of 1,111, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (down one since August), Labor 32% (up two), the Greens 11% (down one), independents 14% (steady) and others 6% (steady).

The Poll Bludger said the primary votes suggested a “slight two-party advantage to Labor”. Labor incumbent Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier by 37–14 (38–13 in August).

By 61–23, voters thought the NSW government is not doing enough to help renters. By 53–19, they thought the government should put aside money towards future metro rail projects.

A Victorian state Redbridge poll, conducted September 26 to October 3 from a sample of 1,516, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since a late July Redbridge poll. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 30% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (steady) and 18% for all Others (up one).

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Coalition seizes Newspoll lead, but other polls have Labor improving – https://theconversation.com/coalition-seizes-newspoll-lead-but-other-polls-have-labor-improving-240785

The science of happier dogs: 5 tips to help your canine friends live their best life

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mia Cobb, Research Fellow, Animal Welfare Science Centre, The University of Melbourne

Bigzumi/Shutterstock

When you hear about “science focused on how dogs can live their best lives with us” it sounds like an imaginary job made up by a child. However, the field of animal welfare science is real and influential.

As our most popular animal companion and coworker, dogs are very deserving of scientific attention. In recent years we’ve learned more about how dogs are similar to people, but also how they are distinctly themselves.

We often think about how dogs help us – as companions, working as detectors, and keeping us safe and healthy. Dog-centric science helps us think about the world from a four-paw perspective and apply this new knowledge so dogs can enjoy a good life.

Here are five tips to keep the tails in your life wagging happily.

1. Let dogs sniff

Sniffing makes dogs happier. We tend to forget they live in a smell-based world because we’re so visual. Often taking the dog for a walk is our daily physical activity but we should remember it could be our dogs’ only time out of the home environment.

Letting them have a really good sniff of that tree or post is full of satisfying information for them. It’s their nose’s equivalent of us standing at the top of a mountain and enjoying a rich, colour-soaked, sunset view.

A fawn and white dog with upright ears is sniffing the grass with one front paw raised
Dogs live in a world of smells, so it’s important to let them sniff until their heart’s content.
Pawtraits/Shutterstock

2. Give dogs agency

Agency is a hot topic in animal welfare science right now. For people who lived through the frustration of strict lockdowns in the early years of COVID, it’s easy to remember how not being able to go where we wanted, or see who we wanted, when we wanted, impacted our mental health.

We’ve now learned that giving animals choice and control in their lives is important for their mental wellbeing too. We can help our dogs enjoy better welfare by creating more choices and offering them control to exercise their agency.

This might be installing a doggy door so they can go outside or inside when they like. It could be letting them decide which sniffy path to take through your local park. Perhaps it’s choosing which three toys to play with that day from a larger collection that gets rotated around. Maybe it’s putting an old blanket down in a new location where you’ve noticed the sun hits the floor for them to relax on.

Providing choices doesn’t have to be complicated or expensive.

3. Recognise all dogs are individuals

People commonly ascribe certain personality traits to certain dog breeds. But just like us, dogs have their own personalities and preferences. Not all dogs are going to like the same things and a new dog we live with may be completely different to the last one.

One dog might like to go to the dog park and run around with other dogs at high speed for an hour, while another dog would much rather hang out with you chewing on something in the garden.

We can see as much behavioural variation within breeds as we do between them. Being prepared to meet dogs where they are, as individuals, is important to their welfare.

As well as noticing what dogs like to do as individuals, it’s important not to force dogs into situations they don’t enjoy. Pay attention to behaviour that indicates dogs aren’t comfortable, such as looking away, licking their lips or yawning.

A group of four dogs of various sizes and colours, cost type and ear positions.
Just like humans, different dogs have different personalities.
Daria Shvetcova/Shutterstock

4. Respect dogs’ choice to opt out

Even in our homes, we can provide options if our dogs don’t want to share in every activity with us. Having a quiet place that dogs can retreat to is really important in enabling them to opt out if they want to.

If you’re watching television loudly, it may be too much for their sensitive ears. Ensure a door is open to another room so they can retreat. Some dogs might feel overwhelmed when visitors come over; giving them somewhere safe and quiet to go rather than forcing an interaction will help them cope.

Dogs can be terrific role models for children when teaching empathy. We can demonstrate consent by letting dogs approach us for pats and depart when they want. Like seeing exotic animals perform in circuses, dressing up dogs for our own entertainment seems to have had its day. If you asked most dogs, they don’t want to wear costumes or be part of your Halloween adventures.

5. Opportunities for off-lead activity – safely.

When dogs are allowed to run off-lead, they use space differently. They tend to explore more widely and go faster than they do when walking with us on-lead. This offers them important and fun physical activity to keep them fit and healthy.

Demonstrating how dogs walk differently when on- and off-lead.

A recent exploration of how liveable cities are for dogs mapped all the designated areas for dogs to run off-leash. Doggy density ranged from one dog for every six people to one dog for every 30 people, depending on where you live.

It also considered how access to these areas related to the annual registration fees for dogs in each government area compared, with surprising differences noted across greater Melbourne. We noted fees varied between A$37 and $84, and these didn’t relate to how many off-lead areas you could access.

For dog-loving nations, such as Australia, helping our canine friends live their best life feels good. Science that comes from a four-paw perspective can help us reconsider our everyday interactions with dogs and influence positive changes so we can live well, together.

The Conversation

Mia Cobb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The science of happier dogs: 5 tips to help your canine friends live their best life – https://theconversation.com/the-science-of-happier-dogs-5-tips-to-help-your-canine-friends-live-their-best-life-236952

Election anniversary: a year into 3-party coalition government, can the centre hold?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

Getty Images

Nearly a year on from its formation, it’s clear a three-party coalition is not quite the same as the two-party versions New Zealand is accustomed to.

Normally, the primary dynamic has been clear: the major party sets the pace while the smaller governing partner receives a bauble or two for supporting the lead act. There may be occasional concerns about tails wagging dogs, but the dog is clearly in charge.

With the present National-ACT-NZ First coalition, however, things are more complex and less predictable. The dog has two tails, both of which are more than capable of vigorous wagging.

On the anniversary of the 2023 election, which produced the first three-party coalition government since the MMP system was adopted in 1996, we are perhaps beginning to get a picture of where dog ends and tails begin.

Speed wobbles

If that picture has been a little blurry until now it’s partly because of the speed with which the government has moved – not always to its own advantage.

In the process of ticking off the 49 items on its plan for the first 100 days, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s administration has kept some election promises but broken or fudged others, having to backtrack as a result.

It has delivered tax cuts, but been forced to trim and cap spending in areas (like health and infrastructure) crying out for extra investment.

It has given the impression of urgency and action with its Fast-track Approvals Bill. But it had to scrap the policy’s core element of granting three ministers unprecedented constitutional authority over which projects to fast-track.

Concerns about executive overreach and potential conflicts of interest have dogged other policy areas, too. These range from the repeal of ground-breaking smoke-free legislation to firearms control – both the responsibility of junior coalition party ministers.

This sense of a government somewhat at odds with itself extends to the swingeing cuts made to the public service workforce. Marketed as freeing up resources for front-line staff, the cuts are increasingly likely to be affecting actual service delivery in health, police, defence and elsewhere.

Executive overreach? A protest march in Auckland against the government’s fast-track consenting legislation.
Getty Images

An ‘executive paradise’

Some of this can be put down to a new government’s distrust of a public service inherited from its predecessor, and a desire to make the most of its first year before the shadow election campaign kicks off mid-term.

But the coalition’s vigorous embrace of the executive authority baked into New Zealand’s constitutional arrangements has still been something to behold. As constitutional lawyer and former prime minister Geoffrey Palmer put it, the fast-track legislation risked turning New Zealand into “an executive paradise, not a democratic paradise”.

The government has used parliamentary urgency more frequently than any other contemporary administration. It has been rattling legislation through the House faster than the wheels of parliamentary democracy are meant to turn.

Submitters on the Māori wards legislation, for example, were given just three working days to prepare their arguments. Those wanting to comment on the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill had four days.

And the government has been making less use of parliament’s expert select committees than is standard practice. This has limited public participation and constrained scrutiny of proposed legislation.

Ministers have also been prepared to ignore public service advice while paying plenty of attention to operational matters in the departments that furnish that advice.

New Zealand’s system of public management distinguishes between ministers’ responsibility for policy outcomes and senior officials’ responsibility for the operational decisions required to deliver those outcomes.

Nonetheless, Cabinet has commandeered oversight of operational matters in Whaikaha/Ministry of Disabled People, following botched communications over changes in disability funding. And civil servants have recently been told to stop working from home and return to the office.

The government will be betting this tactical disposition bolsters its “getting stuff done” narrative. But no one wants a concern with short-term operational details to come at the expense of long-term policy thinking.

Treaty principles pantomime

Nowhere is the coalition’s internal tension more evident, however, than in its confrontational approach to Māori and te Tiriti o Waitangi/Treaty of Waitangi issues.

Having courted voters already sceptical or disgruntled about Māori cultural assertiveness, the coalition moved fast to disestablish Te Aka Whai Ora/Māori Health Authority, repeal legislation supporting Māori wards in local government, row back on official use of te reo Māori, and cut funding for Māori language revitalisation.

But its proposed Treaty Principles Bill – an ACT Party initiative – looks set to be especially constitutionally fraught and politically divisive.

National and NZ First have indicated they will not support the bill beyond its first reading, but have agreed it will receive a full six months in front of a select committee.

This only raises the question of why any parliamentary time and money should be spent on the proposal at all – especially given the government’s supposed “laser focus” on cost and efficiency elsewhere.

Can the centre hold?

The politics around the Treaty Principles Bill also reveal just how much the prime minister has had to cede to ACT, for whom the proposed legislation was a bottom line during the government formation process.

And it inevitably casts doubt on the extent and exercise of prime ministerial authority under three-way governing arrangements. ACT leader and soon-to-be deputy prime minister David Seymour has questioned Christopher Luxon’s authority more than once.

And Luxon’s apparent unwillingness to at least censure an under-performing minister from another party (NZ First’s Casey Costello, for example) contrasts starkly with his firmer treatment of those in his own National Party (Melissa Lee and Penny Simmons, both demoted).

One year into a three-year term, these issues can perhaps be dismissed as part of the process of bedding down a new government. But politics never rests. Winston Peters hands the deputy prime minister role to David Seymour at the end of next May. Both NZ First and ACT will want to distinguish themselves from National.

As the next election nears and the jockeying for attention begins, the prime minister’s authority over his administration, and the coalition’s coherence, will be tested further.

The Conversation

Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Election anniversary: a year into 3-party coalition government, can the centre hold? – https://theconversation.com/election-anniversary-a-year-into-3-party-coalition-government-can-the-centre-hold-240189

The Voice defeat set us all back. And since then, our leaders have given up

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Blackwell, Research Fellow (Indigenous Diplomacy), Australian National University

It’s one year since the failed referendum to enshrine a First Nations Voice to Parliament in the Australian Constitution.

The vote represents a moment of deep sadness and frustration for many First Nations people for the lost opportunity to move towards meaningful change in our lives, communities and for our futures. Many elders and old people will likely not live to see change.

I was one of the many people in the Uluru Dialogue at UNSW who worked last year across the country educating on and advocating for the constitutional change. I spoke to communities across New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT, from Boorowa to Melbourne.

I not only saw the campaign first-hand, I also have read every think piece imaginable in the 12 months since about why the referendum failed.

A ceaseless blame game

From the expected pieces blaming the usual suspects (Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, Indigenous peoples, the Yes campaign, the No campaign and the media), there were also some weirder supposed culprits.

Some blamed “wokeness”, Donald Trump and dark money, secret elites, identity politics, and all manner of culture war issues.

To my mind, no single thing doomed the Voice. It was a mix of a lot of the above.

Albanese treating the referendum like an election campaign but without the usual level of resourcing and advocacy. The Coalition’s outright opposition to the idea (despite previous indications of support). The media’s failure to grapple with Indigenous issues and dogmatic insistence on giving prominence to “both sides” of the debate.

The YES23 organisation was also disorganised from the start. Yes campaigners were forced onto the back foot daily by relentless misinformation, seemingly deliberate, from the No campaign.




Read more:
Why did the Voice referendum fail? We crunched the data and found 6 reasons


This built on a distinct lack of civic education among most Australians.

It was further amplified by the No campaign’s very successful “If you don’t know, vote no” slogan – the idea being that their untruths warranted little scrutiny.

That’s on top of a large undercurrent of racism that was never properly called out, and which has never been properly addressed.

Campaigns like this are something we as a nation haven’t come to terms with. We’ve seen in the United States how effective misinformation can be at confusing people, creating false senses of reality and distorting public perception.

Even if Australians supported the ideas behind the Voice in the abstract, neither they nor the media were prepared for the level of dishonesty and bad dealing from the No campaign. It was never a fair fight.

No, no, and no again

The Voice to Parliament represented a consensus plea from Indigenous communities for systemic reform. The idea was that the structure of the Australian political system was, either by design or outcome, causing many of the social and economic issues that we face, and therefore a structural solution was needed.

The No campaign claimed after the referendum that the result was a rejection of this idea of a Voice to Parliament as a solution to issues in Indigenous communities or among Indigenous peoples more generally, “because it wasn’t going to fix the things that needed to be fixed”.

Prominent No campaigner Warren Mundine even called the referendum the “most divisive, most racially charged attack on Australia I’ve ever seen”.

Australia has voted no to the Voice of division”, was the common refrain from people like Pauline Hanson and other No campaigners. Australians “wanted practical solutions” to Indigenous issues, not a body without any detail that wouldn’t hear “real communities”.

I am not bringing up these issues again to relitigate the issues of the referendum. Instead, I want to ask a very important question: the Voice to Parliament was designed to address our systemic disadvantage, so what solutions to these serious structural issues have any of the No campaigners offered in the past 12 months?




Read more:
A royal commission won’t help the abuse of Aboriginal kids. Indigenous-led solutions will


We have seen some policies from the Coalition. Plans to reduce “fly in, fly out” workers in remote communities. Reforming land rights and native title. A royal commission into child sexual abuse in Indigenous communities. Less need for programs with “a specific Indigenous focus” in urban areas, where most First Nations people live.

Some of these are just a rehash of failed Coalition policies of the past, as many others have mentioned. Some appear to have come personally from Senator Jacinta Price and are seemingly not backed by experts (or many people in Indigenous communities). Others appear to be tied directly into conservative political talking points, rather than really addressing Indigenous need.

The Coalition also abandoned its plan for an alternative second referendum almost immediately after the failed vote.

The Coalition and other leading No campaigners clearly have no plans to address the structural issues facing our peoples. They’re only offering more of the regular policy tinkering and seesawing we have seen far too often before.

Abandoning the cause

The same is true of the government. I have already written for this masthead about the government’s abject failures at implementing the Closing the Gap targets and its lack of meaningful consultation.

The government’s current attempts at Indigenous policy remain exercises in seeking consent over genuine consultation. Its proposed “economic empowerment” agenda for First Nations peoples is a perfect example.

Aside from the lack of codesign and meaningful engagement, such policies have been bandied about for the better part of two decades and still have not substantively moved the dial.

The pursuit of market-based wealth for some privileged few First Nations peoples and communities, under the guise of closing the gap, as well as focusing on the overexaggerated benefits of renewable energy as a driver of Indigenous economic power, is not “economic development” for all mobs.

The policy focus was also announced as Albanese abandoned his commitment to a Makaratta Commission – the Treaty and Truth components that were meant to follow the Voice to Parliament.

These ideas fall into the same tired policy stereotypes of throwing money at some of the usual organisations and peoples who have long benefited, and claiming this solves the systemic problems we face. The problem isn’t money, it’s the very rules of the game.

Charting a way forward

Research following the referendum shows that 87% of Australians think First Nations peoples should be able to decide for ourselves about our way of life. Moreover, 64% think the disadvantages faced by our communities warrant extra government attention, and 68% believe this disadvantage comes from “past race-based policies”.

Only 35% believe Indigenous peoples are now treated equally to other Australians, and only 37% believe injustices faced by our community are “all in the past”.

This clearly shows a level of recognition by the Australian people that something needs to be done about Indigenous policy and the structural issues in this country.

According to the same data, 87% of Australians agree it is “important for First Nations peoples to have a voice/say in matters that affect them”. This jumps to 98.5% among Yes voters, but also is true of 76% of No voters.

This suggests that Australian people see the problem and can identify the structural issues.

The real work, then, is on civics education, getting people to understand that the structural issues they can see need structural change; but also making them more aware of the effects of misinformation. It’s not right that proposals that should get the support of the Australian people can be derailed the way this was.

But what also isn’t right is the current abdication of Indigenous policy by both major parties and their abandonment of any attempt to remedy structural issues. Following the referendum, the major parties have given up.

To paraphrase myself from February’s Closing the Gap announcement: the next time you run into an MP, ask them what their plan for Indigenous people is. Ask them not just about closing the gap, but to fix the structural issues that so clearly disadvantage our people.

That’s the question no one wants to answer, but it’s what we need to do if we are to move on from the 2023 referendum in a positive direction.

The Conversation

James Blackwell is a member of the Uluru Dialogue at UNSW. He is also an Independent Councillor for Hilltops Council in NSW.

ref. The Voice defeat set us all back. And since then, our leaders have given up – https://theconversation.com/the-voice-defeat-set-us-all-back-and-since-then-our-leaders-have-given-up-239732

How to look after your mental health right now if you have family in the Middle East or another conflict zone

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Procter, Professor and Chair: Mental Health Nursing, University of South Australia

Escalating violence in the Middle East, particularly in Lebanon in recent weeks, has brought news of death, casualties and displacement.

In response, the Australian government has organised evacuation flights for Australian citizens and is urging all Australians in Lebanon to take the earliest available flights due to the unpredictable nature of the conflict.

For the more than 248,000 Australians with Lebanese ancestry, and others, this has been a deeply distressing time.

Escalating violence in Lebanon has also resonated deeply with other diasporas in Australia, such as those from Palestine and Ukraine. These scattered communities share similar experiences of conflict and displacement.

So how do Australians with links to Lebanon, Gaza or other conflict zones look after their mental health at this time? And how can you support others who may be struggling?

Identifying with pain and suffering

People with emotional ties to conflict zones overseas identify with the pain and suffering they see and hear. Australians with shared cultural heritage may be living in the shadow of homeland events and experiencing what research has calledpush-pull” dynamics.

This may be experiencing periods of calm and ease mixed with intermittent periods of intense fear, uncertainty and emotional pain as upsetting events unfold.

For some, sleeplessness, irritability, fear, frustration, uncertainty and emotional exhaustion combine. People are no longer isolated from their country of origin. Rather, global events influence their personal and social life, and mental health.

The way people manage the interplay between homeland events, sense of powerlessness, and mental health in Australia are complex. It is easy to be rapidly consumed by what is happening. Events are graphic, compelling and fast moving.

How to look after yourself

So what can you do if you notice yourself or someone close to you is becoming impacted?

Know your distress triggers. For some, this might be witnessing violence on television news or social media. For others, this might be stories about children and young people who have been killed. Seeing and hearing images and stories can be distressing if they are repeated across multiple platforms. Some people may need to minimise their media exposure.

Talk to people you trust about how you are feeling. Describe what is happening and what you notice about yourself. If you are feeling fragile or concerned about your mental health, or the mental health of a loved one, seek support from your health-care provider.

Reconnect with and strengthen personal support networks. Supportive cultural connections and family members, and other supports including friends and colleagues, can protect against the onset or worsening of mental distress.

Getting help early can create more options for support. It can also make it easier to accept help in the future.

Refer to trusted sources of information and calibrate media exposure. While many people need to know about events, news stories and imagery are distressing.

Incorporate activities that comfort and distract you, and make your situation feel safer. This can include:

  • spending time with family members or friends

  • spiritual, faith or religious reconnecting

  • distraction through music or food.

Avoid taking devices to bed to protect your sleep and your mental health.

How to support others

If you work with or support someone who is impacted, recognise this is a time for sensitivity and compassion. Show you are concerned and, at the same time, check they’re OK. Ask:

What would be most helpful in our support for you?

What is the best way for me/the team at work to be supportive and alongside you?

It is also important to ask about someone’s mental health. You can ask:

With events unfolding, how are things at home for you right now?

When validating a person’s experience, remember it is not always important to know personal detail or circumstances in fine detail. What is important is to demonstrate genuine interest, create trust and psychological safety. Aim to really listen, rather than listening so you can respond.

As a friend, colleague or manager, offering support and listening without judgement may help a person impacted by global catastrophic events.

In times like these, validation, human connection and support are some of the best things you can do to protect your own and other people’s mental health.

Sometimes it can be hard to find the words. Here’s what we know helps.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

The Conversation

Nicholas Procter currently receives funding from Overseas Services to Survivors of Torture and Trauma, Foundation House and SA Health. He has previously received sitting fees from the Department of Home Affairs.

Mary Anne Kenny has previous received funding from the Australian Research Council and sitting fees from the Department of Home Affairs.

ref. How to look after your mental health right now if you have family in the Middle East or another conflict zone – https://theconversation.com/how-to-look-after-your-mental-health-right-now-if-you-have-family-in-the-middle-east-or-another-conflict-zone-240995

Electric car sales have slumped. Misinformation is one of the reasons

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Urban Analytics & Resilience, UNSW Sydney

Karolis Kavolelis/Shutterstock

Battery electric vehicle sales in Australia have flattened in recent months. The latest data reveal a sharp 27.2% year-on-year decline (overall new vehicle sales were down 9.7%) in September. Tesla Model Y and Model 3 cars had an even steeper drop of nearly 50%.

Sales also fell in August (by 18.5%) and July (1.5%). There’s a clear downward trend.

Before this downturn, electric vehicle sales had been rising steadily, supported by increased choices and government incentives. In early 2024, year-to-date sales continued to grow compared to the same period in 2023. Then, in April, electric vehicle sales fell for the first time in more than two years.

Australia isn’t simply mirroring a broader global trend. It’s true sales have slowed in parts of Europe and the United States — often due to reduced incentives. But strong sales growth continues in other regions, such as China and India.

A range of factors or combinations of them could help explain the trend in Australia. These include governments axing incentives, concerns about safety and depreciation, and misinformation.

Governments are cutting incentives

Electric vehicles typically cost more upfront. However, the flood of cheaper Chinese vehicles is lowering the cost barrier.

Federal, state and territory governments also provide financial incentives to buy electric vehicles. These have been among the main drivers of sales in Australia.

Nationally, incentives include a higher luxury car tax threshold and exemptions from fringe benefits tax and customs duty. But several states and territories have scaled back their rebate programs and tax exemptions in 2023 and 2024.

New South Wales and South Australia ended their $3,000 rebates on January 1 this year. At the same time, NSW ended a stamp duty refund for new and used zero-emission vehicles up to a value of $78,000. Both incentives had been offered since 2021.

Victoria ended its $3,000 rebate, also launched in 2021, in mid-2023.

In the ACT, the incentive of two years’ free registration closed on June 30 2024.

Queensland’s $6,000 electric vehicle rebate ended in September.

The market clearly responded to these changes. However, reduced financial incentives alone cannot explain the full picture. Despite several rounds of price cuts, sales of popular Tesla models are falling.

Buyers are increasingly opting for hybrid vehicles instead. In September, sales of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles were up by 34.4% and 89.9%, respectively.

These sales trends reflect other consumer concerns beyond just the upfront cost.

Resale value worries buyers

One major issue for car buyers in Australia, and globally, is uncertainty about their resale value. Consumers are concerned electric vehicles depreciate faster than traditional cars.

These concerns are particularly tied to battery degradation, which affects a car’s range and performance over time. And batteries account for much of the vehicle’s total cost. Potential buyers worry about the long-term value of a used electric vehicle with an ageing battery.

For example, a 2021 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus with nearly 85,000km currently lists for about $34,000. It has lost roughly half its value in just three years.

While Tesla offers transferable four-year warranties and software updates, the rapid evolution of EV technology also makes older second-hand models less desirable, further reducing their value.

Fires raise fears about safety

Electric vehicle fires have made headlines globally. This has created doubts among consumers about the risks of owning them.

In Korea, a high-profile battery fire in August 2024 led to a ban on certain electric vehicles from underground car parks. While similar bans are not common in Australia, some have been reported. These could have harmed local consumer confidence.

Incidents of electric vehicle fires have increased along with vehicle numbers. Statistically, these vehicles are not more prone to fires than conventional cars – in fact, the risk is clearly lower.

For example, analysis of publicly available statistics from South Korean government agencies, one of the early adopters of electric vehicles, show the number of fires per registered electric vehicle is steadily increasing. Fire risk remains lower than for traditional vehicles, although the gap is shrinking as the electric vehicle fleet ages. And the highly publicised nature of their fires is a source of growing buyer hesitancy.

Electric vehicle fires in Korea are increasing with EV numbers, but the rate is still less than for petrol or diesel cars.
Author provided using data from South Korean government agencies, CC BY

Misinformation and politicisation are rampant

The full environmental benefits of electric vehicles depend on widespread adoption. However, there is a wide gap between early adopters’ experiences and potential buyers’ perceptions.

Persistent misconceptions include exaggerated concerns about battery life, charging infrastructure and safety. Myths and misinformation often fuel these concerns. Traditional vehicle and oil companies actively spread misinformation in campaigns much like those used against other green energy initiatives.

In response, coalitions such as Electric Vehicles UK have formed to combat these false narratives and promote accurate information.

The politicisation of green initiatives adds to the challenge. When electric vehicles become associated with a specific political ideology, it can alienate large parts of the population. Adoption then becomes slower and more divisive.

Green transition is a work in progress

The electric vehicle market in Australia is facing challenges, despite the growing variety of models and price cuts.

The EV sales trend signals deeper issues in the market. Broader trends, such as the dominance of SUVs and utes, underscore the fact that while the transition to greener vehicles is progressing, it remains uneven.

Further efforts will be needed to reduce misconceptions and misinformation, and bridge the gap between owners’ experience and potential buyers’ perceptions. Only then can Australia enjoy the environmental benefits of widespread EV adoption.

The Conversation

Hadi Ghaderi receives funding from the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, IVECO Trucks Australia limited, Victoria Department of Education and Training, Australia Post, Bondi Laboratories, Innovative Manufacturing Cooperative Research Centre, Sphere for Good, Australian Meat Processor Corporation,City of Casey, 460degrees and Passel.

Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Electric car sales have slumped. Misinformation is one of the reasons – https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-have-slumped-misinformation-is-one-of-the-reasons-240545

Australia’s school funding system is broken. Here’s how to fix it

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Glenn Savage, Associate Professor of Education Policy and the Future of Schooling, The University of Melbourne

As Australian students begin the final term of 2024, governments are in the middle of a bitter standoff over public school funding for next year.

The federal government has offered states and territories a 2.5% funding increase for schools to the tune of A$16 billion, but some are demanding 5%.

The deadline for states and territories to sign the proposed new school funding agreement ended on September 30, leaving the future of Australian school funding beyond 2025 in limbo.

On top of ongoing funding uncertainty, there are also significant issues with how the proposed new agreement is designed. How can we fix this?

How does school funding work?

Federal, state and territory governments each contribute to public school funding.

The federal government currently contributes 20% of the schooling resource standard. This is the estimate of how much public funding a school needs to meet students’ educational needs.

The Commonwealth ties this funding to reforms and targets aimed at improving equity and learning outcomes for students. The remaining 80% is up to states and territories to fund.

The current agreement expires at the end of this year and the Albanese government is proposing to replace it with the ten-year Better and Fairer Schools Agreement from the start of 2025.

The new agreement provides some important opportunities to improve schools and student outcomes, including measures to enhance student wellbeing, increase attendance, strengthen the teacher workforce, and increase the proportion of students who leave school with a Year 12 certificate.




Read more:
There’s a new school funding bill in parliament. Will this end the funding wars?


Painfully slow progress

The current round of funding negotiations has been plagued by sour politics and persistent roadblocks.

The new national agreement was originally due to begin in 2024, but was delayed after a damning December 2022 Productivity Commission review. This found the current agreement had “done little” to lift student outcomes.

The federal government then commissioned an expert review panel (of which one of us, Pasi Sahlberg, was a member) to inform a new agreement. This year, we have seen negotiations with states and territories over funding and details of the Better and Fairer Schools Agreement were released in July.

But progress has been painfully slow. While Tasmania, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have signed on, other states and territories are holding out.

In August, federal Education Minister Jason Clare issued an ultimatum: sign the agreement by September 30 or forgo the 2.5% funding increase. The federal government has since downplayed the missed deadline while critics suggest it was always an “arbitrary” ultimatum.

Ambiguous equity targets

The political theatre and inability to find consensus raises major concerns about how effective the national reform agenda can be.

A closer look at the targets also raises questions about how they might work in practice.

For example, the new agreement is supposed to have equity at its core (it claims to be “better and fairer”) but it lacks a clear definition of equity. It also lacks specific equity targets to narrow achievement gaps between students from low and high socioeconomic backgrounds.

The new agreement has “learning equity targets”. This includes measures to reduce the proportion of students in the “needs additional support” NAPLAN category for reading and numeracy by 10% and increase those in the “strong” and “exceeding” categories by 10% by 2030.

The only specific target for disadvantaged students is there is a “trend upwards” of the proportion in higher NAPLAN proficiency levels.

Past experience suggests schools will likely “triage” students to reach these targets. This means they will focus more on students who are just below or above the target levels, and less on those unlikely to make the mark. This is what happened when similar targets were set in Ontario in the 2000s.

So, even if overall average NAPLAN scores improve, achievement gaps (between advantaged and disadvantaged students) could grow. This will not improve equity – it will do the opposite.

Toothless targets

There are also no mechanisms to hold states and territories accountable for meeting targets until schools are “fully funded” under the agreement.

Fully funded means states and territories are receiving 100% of the schooling resource standard. To make matters worse, even when jurisdictions are fully funded, there are no penalties or sanctions for failing to cooperate with the agreement.

Timelines to reach full funding in the bilateral agreements already signed are years away. For example, it is 2026 for Western Australia and 2029 for the Northern Territory.

This means states and territories can choose whether they meet the targets or not.

3 ways to fix school funding

Failure to fully and fairly fund schools, mixed with an inability to set meaningful targets, creates deep uncertainty for schooling systems as a new year approaches.

For example, last week the Australian Education Union placed a nationwide ban on the implementation of the new agreement, including “unfunded” reforms that would increase teachers’ workloads.

This is not a sustainable situation. So, how can we fix it?

1. Set meaningful targets: it is not enough to have ambiguous goals for improvement that might improve test scores for some but also worsen inequities. At a minimum, we need to rethink targets to ensure they narrow achievement gaps between equity groups. Without this, education systems will continue to fail those who need the most support.

2. Ensure accountability for the targets: we need to make sure states and territories cannot escape or delay their obligations to improve equity and learning outcomes. To do this, schools should be fully funded from 2025, so current (not future) education ministers are compelled to act.

3. Distance the politics from school funding: schools need stability and consistency to plan effectively. The Better and Fairer Schools Agreement has a helpful ten-year term but reforms are needed to ensure funding decisions remain fair and consistent across the nation. Instead of messy and protracted political negotiations between governments, we could instead set up a national agency to oversee the distribution of school funding.

These measures would help avoid political interference and ensure funding is allocated in line with student needs, national reform priorities and agreed targets.

It’s time to address the deeper issues

The ongoing failure to fairly resource and set meaningful reforms for our schools is a symptom of a broken national funding system.

Unless we address its foundational issues, Australian teachers and students — particularly those in disadvantaged schools — will continue to be short-changed.

The Conversation

Glenn C. Savage receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Pasi Sahlberg was a member of the Australian Government’s Expert Panel to inform a better and fairer education system in 2023.

ref. Australia’s school funding system is broken. Here’s how to fix it – https://theconversation.com/australias-school-funding-system-is-broken-heres-how-to-fix-it-240908

Can listening to music make you more productive at work?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Fiveash, ARC DECRA Fellow (Researcher), Western Sydney University

Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

Listening to music can enhance our lives in all kinds of ways – many of us use it during exercise, to regulate our mood, or in the workplace.

But can listening to background music while you work really make you more productive?

It’s a controversial topic. Some people swear by it, others find it painfully distracting. The research agrees there’s no one-size-fits-all answer to this question.

The best way to use music in the workplace depends on several factors, including your personality traits, what you’re doing, and what kind of music you’re listening to.

Here’s how to find out what works best for you.

Who you are

Your personality has a key influence on whether background music can boost productivity or be distracting in the workplace, which relates to your unique optimal level of arousal.

Arousal in this context relates to mental alertness, and the readiness of the brain to process new information. Background music can increase it.

Research suggests that being at an optimal level of arousal facilitates a state of “flow”, enhancing performance and productivity.

Introverts may need less external stimulus – such as music – to focus well.
Ground Picture/Shutterstock

Introverts already have a high baseline level of internal arousal.

Adding background music might push them over their optimal level, likely reducing productivity.

Extroverts, on the other hand, have lower baseline levels of internal arousal, so need more external stimulation to perform at their optimal level.

This is why introverts may perform worse than extroverts with background music, especially when the music is highly arousing.

What you’re doing

Research has shown the nature of the task you’re doing can also have an important effect.

Because of connections between music and language in the brain, trying to read and write at the same time as listening to complex music – especially music with lyrics – can be particularly difficult.

However, if you’re doing a simple or repetitive task such as data entry or a manual task, having music on in the background can help with performance – particularly upbeat and complex music.

These findings could be related to music’s effects on motivation and maintaining attention, as well as activating reward networks in the brain.

Complex music may increase performance on some simple or manual tasks.
Krakenimages.com/Shutterstock

The type of music itself

One important and often overlooked influence is what kind of music you choose to listen to.

Research has shown that fast and loud music can be more detrimental to complex tasks, such as reading comprehension, than soft and slow music.

Other research found that listening to calming music can have benefits for memory, while aggressive and unpleasant music can have the opposite effect.

However, these effects also depend on your personality, your familiarity with the music, and your musical preferences, so the type of music that works best will be different for everyone.

Music can be very rewarding and can benefit attention, mood and motivation.

Choosing music that is meaningful, rewarding and makes you feel good will likely help boost your performance, especially when performing simple tasks.

The type of music you listen to can have an effect.
Samuel Sianipar/Unsplash

What about complex tasks?

It largely seems that the more complex or demanding the task is, the more distracting background music can be.

One way to harness the motivational and mood-boosting effects of music to help with your workplace productivity is to play music before doing your work.

Using music to boost your mood and enhance attention before starting a work task could help you be more productive in that task.

Playing music right before a task can provide benefits while reducing the risk of distraction.
XiXinXing/Shutterstock

Playing music before a demanding task has been shown to boost language abilities in particular.

So if you’re about to do a cognitively demanding task involving reading and writing, and you feel that music might distract you if played at the same time, try listening to it just before doing the task.

Find what works for you

Music can be both helpful and detrimental for workplace productivity – the best advice is to experiment with different tasks and different types of music, to find out what works best for you.

Try to experiment with your favourite music first, while doing a simple task.

Does the music help you engage with the task? Or do you get distracted and start to become more absorbed in the music? Listening to music without lyrics and with a strong beat might help you focus on the task at hand.

If you find music is distracting to your work, try scheduling in some music breaks throughout the day. Listening to music during breaks could boost your mood and increase your motivation, thereby enhancing productivity.

Moving along with music is suggested to increase reward processing, especially in social situations.

Dancing has the added bonus of getting you out of your chair and moving along in time, so bonus points if you are able to make it a dance break!




Read more:
An education in music makes you a better employee. Are recruiters in tune?


Anna Fiveash receives funding from The Australian Research Council.

ref. Can listening to music make you more productive at work? – https://theconversation.com/can-listening-to-music-make-you-more-productive-at-work-241123

30 years ago, Tarantino’s Pulp Fiction shook Hollywood and redefined ‘cool’ cinema

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben McCann, Associate Professor of French Studies, University of Adelaide

IMDB

What might be the most seismic moment in American cinema? Film “speaking” for the first time in The Jazz Singer? Dorothy entering the Land of Oz? That menacing shark that in 1975 invented the summer blockbuster?

Or how about that moment when two hitmen on their way to a job began talking about the intricacies of European fast food while listening to Kool & The Gang?

Directed by Quentin Tarantino, Pulp Fiction (1994) celebrates its 30th birthday this month. Watching it now, this story of a motley crew of mobsters, drug dealers and lowlifes in sunny Los Angeles still feels startlingly new.

Widely regarded as Tarantino’s masterpiece, the director’s dazzling second film was considered era-defining for its memorable dialogue, innovative narrative structure and unique blend of humour and violence. It was nominated for seven Academy Awards, made stars of Samuel L. Jackson and Uma Thurman, and revitalised John Travolta’s career.

Pulp Fiction is dark, often poignant, and very funny. It is, as one critic describes it, an “intravenous jab of callous madness, black comedy and strange unwholesome euphoria”.

Tarantino’s trademark style includes plenty of violence and gore.
IMDB

A Möbius strip plot

Famous for its non-linear narrative, Pulp Fiction weaves together a trio of connected crime stories. The three chapters – Vincent Vega and Marsellus Wallace’s Wife, The Gold Watch and The Bonnie Situation – loop, twist and intersect but, crucially, never confuse the viewer.

Tarantino has often paid tribute to French filmmakers Jean-Luc Godard and Jean-Pierre Melville, whose earlier films also presented their narratives out of chronological order and modified the rules of the crime genre.

By inviting audiences to piece Pulp Fiction together like a puzzle, Tarantino laid the way for subsequent achronological films such as Memento (2000), Go (1999) and Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels (1998).

Pop culture meets postmodernism

In his influential essay Postmodernism, or the Cultural Logic of Late Capitalism, first published in 1984, political theorist Frederic Jameson coined the term “new depthlessness” to describe postmodern culture.

Jameson perceived a shift away from the depth, meaning and authenticity that characterised earlier forms of culture, towards a focus on surface and style.

Pulp Fiction’s iconic movie poster shows character Mia Wallace (Uma Thurman) smoking a cigarette.
IMDB

Pulp Fiction fits Jameson’s definition of depthlessness. It is stuffed with homages to popular culture and a vivid array of character types drawn from other B-movies – hitmen, molls, mob bosses, double-crossing boxers, traumatised war veterans and tuxedo-wearing “fixers”. It is a film of surfaces and allusions.

Jackson, Travolta and Thurman feature alongside established 1990s box-office stars including Bruce Willis and industry stalwarts Harvey Keitel and Christopher Walken, both of whom have brief but memorable cameos.

The film’s most iconic scene takes place at the retro 1950s-themed Jack Rabbit Slim’s diner. Thurman’s twist contest with Travolta fondly echoes Travolta’s earlier dancing in Saturday Night Fever (1977) and pays homage to other dance scenes in films such as 8 ½ (1963) and Band of Outsiders (1964).

Words and music

Film critic Roger Ebert once noted how Tarantino’s characters “often speak at right angles to the action”, giving long speeches before getting on with the job at hand.

Pulp Fiction is full of witty and quotable monologues and dialogue, ranging from the philosophical to the mundane. Conversations about foot massages and blueberry pie bump up against Bible verses and reflections on fate and redemption.

The film’s 1995 Oscar for Best Original Screenplay was a fitting achievement for Tarantino, who many regard as the snappiest writer in film history. Countless other filmmakers have looked to replicate Pulp Fiction’s mashup of cool and coarse.

Needle drops are just as important in establishing Pulp Fiction’s mood and tone. The film’s eclectic soundtrack pings between surf rock, soul and classic rock ‘n’ roll.

The soundtrack peaked at No. 21 on the Billboard 200 in 1994 and stayed in the charts for more than a year.

Dividing the critics

Though it was officially released in October 1994, Pulp Fiction had already made a stir earlier that by winning the prestigious Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival.

Many expected Krzysztof Kieślowski’s Three Colours: Red to take the top prize. Tarantino himself seemed stunned, telling the Cannes audience: “I don’t make the kind of movies that bring people together. I make movies that split people apart.”

The film has divided critics ever since.

Many adored Pulp Fiction for its intoxicating allure and sheer adrenaline-fuelled pleasure. To this day it maintains a 92% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes. Film critic Todd McCarthy called it a film “bulging with boldness, humour and diabolical invention”.

But the backlash was equally robust. Some criticised the film for its excessive gore and irresponsible use of racial slurs. Screenwriting guru Syd Field felt it was too shallow and too talky. Jean-Luc Godard, once one of Tarantino’s idol, apparently hated it.

Nonetheless, its financial success (a box office return of US$213 million from an $8 million budget) signalled the growing importance and cultural prestige of independent US films. Miramax, the studio that backed it, went on to become a major force in the industry.

The 1994 film made stars of Samuel L. Jackson and Uma Thurman.
IMDB

A lasting legacy

Shortly after Pulp Fiction’s release, the word “Tarantinoesque” appeared in the Oxofrd English Dictionary. The entry reads:

Resembling or imitative of the films of Quentin Tarantino; characteristic or reminiscent of these films Tarantino’s films are typically characterised by graphic and stylized violence, non-linear storylines, cineliterate references, satirical themes, and sharp dialogue.

Pulp Fiction has since been parodied and knocked off countless times. Hollywood suddenly began mass-producing low-budget crime thrillers with witty, self-reflexive dialogue. Things to Do in Denver When You’re Dead (1995), 2 Days In The Valley (1996) and Very Bad Things (1998) are just some example.

Graffiti artist Bansky even stencilled the likeness of Jules and Vincent all over London, with bananas in place of guns. The Simpsons got in on the act too.

Tarantino once summed up his working method as follows:

Ultimately all I’m trying to do is merge sophisticated storytelling with lurid subject matter. I reckon that makes for an entertaining night at the movies.

I’d say there’s no better way to describe Pulp Fiction.

Ben McCann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. 30 years ago, Tarantino’s Pulp Fiction shook Hollywood and redefined ‘cool’ cinema – https://theconversation.com/30-years-ago-tarantinos-pulp-fiction-shook-hollywood-and-redefined-cool-cinema-236877

Rio Tinto class action begins over ‘toxic’ Bougainville mine disaster

By Harry Pearl of BenarNews

An initial hearing of a class action against mining giant Rio Tinto over the toxic legacy of the Panguna copper mine on the autonomous island of Bougainville has been held in Papua New Guinea.

The lawsuit against Rio Tinto and its subsidiary Bougainville Copper Limited (BCL) is seeking compensation, expected to be in the billions of dollars, for what plaintiffs allege is historic mismanagement of the massive open copper-and-gold mine between 1972 and 1989.

More than 5000 claimants backed by anonymous investors are seeking damages for the destruction that sparked a 10-year-long civil war.

The Panguna mine closed in 1989 after anger about pollution and the unequal distribution of profits sparked a landowner rebellion. As many as 20,000 people — or 10 percent of Bougainville’s population — are estimated to have died in the violence that followed between pro-inependence rebels and PNG.

Although a peace process was brokered in 2001 with New Zealand support, deep political divisions remain and there has never been remediation for Panguna’s environmental and psychological scars.

The initial hearing for the lawsuit took place on Wednesday, a day ahead of schedule, at the National Court in Port Moresby, said Matthew Mennilli, a partner at Sydney-based Morris Mennilli.

Mennilli, who is from one of two law firms acting on behalf of the plaintiffs, said he was unable to provide further details as court orders had not yet been formally entered.

A defence submitted
Rio Tinto did not respond to specific questions regarding this week’s hearing, but said in a statement on September 23 it had submitted a defence and would strongly defend its position in the case.

The lawsuit is made up by the majority of villagers in the affected area of Bougainville, an autonomous province within PNG, situated some 800km east of the capital Port Moresby.

Martin Miriori, the primary litigant in the class action lawsuit, photographed in Bougainville, June 2024. Image: Aubrey Belford/OCCRP

At least 71 local clan leaders support the claim, with the lead claimant named as former senior Bougainville political leader and chief of the Basking Taingku clan Martin Miriori.

The lawsuit is being bankrolled by Panguna Mine Action, a limited liability company that stands to reap between 20-40 percent of any payout depending on how long the case takes, according to litigation funding documents cited by the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project.

While the lawsuit has support from a large number of local villagers, some observers fear it could upset social cohesion on Bougainville and potentially derail another long-standing remediation effort.

The class action is running in parallel with an independent assessment of the mine’s legacy, supported by human rights groups and the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG), and funded by Rio Tinto.

Locals walk by buildings left abandoned by a subsidiary of Rio Tinto at the Panguna mine site, Bougainville taken June 2024. Image: Aubrey Belford/OCCRP

Rio Tinto agreed in 2021 to take part in the Panguna Mine Legacy Impact Assessment after the Melbourne-based Human Rights Law Centre filed a complaint with the Australian government, on behalf of Bougainville residents.

Legacy of destruction
The group said the Anglo-Australian mining giant has failed to address Panguna’s legacy of destruction, including the alleged dumping of more than a billion tonnes of mine waste into rivers that continues to affect health, the environment and livelihoods.

The assessment, which is being done by environmental consulting firm Tetra Tech Coffey, includes extensive consultation with local communities and the first phase of the evaluation is expected to be delivered next month.

ABG President Ishmael Toroama has called the Rio Tinto class action the highest form of treason and an obstacle to the government’s economic independence agenda.

“This class action is an attack on Bougainville’s hard-fought unity to date,” he said in May.

In February, the autonomous government granted Australian-listed Bougainville Copper a five-year exploration licence to revive the Panguna mine site.

The Bougainville government is hoping its reopening will fund independence. In a non-binding 2019 referendum — which was part of the 2001 peace agreement — 97.7 percent of the island’s inhabitants voted for independence.

PNG leaders resist independence
But PNG leaders have resisted the result, fearful that by granting independence it could encourage breakaway movements in other regions of the volatile Pacific island country.

Former New Zealand Governor-General Sir Jerry Mateparae was appointed last month as an independent moderator to help the two parties agree on terms of a parliamentary vote needed to ratify the referendum.

In response to the class action, Rio Tinto said last month its focus remained on “constructive engagement and meaningful action with local stakeholders” through the legacy assessment.

The company said it was “seeking to partner with key stakeholders, such as the ABG and BCL, to design and implement a remedy framework.”

Copyright ©2015-2024, BenarNews. Republished with the permission of BenarNews.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

News blues: study reveals why 60% of Kiwis avoid the news at least some of the time

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Beattie, Lecturer, Media and Communication, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Getty Images

Are you a news avoider? Do you turn off the six o’clock TV news, scroll past headlines, skip radio bulletins – or just ignore news entirely?

If you do some or all of these things, you are not alone. A new survey shows New Zealand has some of the highest rates of news avoidance in the world.

With news media already struggling with declining revenues and audiences, this adds to the immense challenges the sector faces in a competitive and politically polarised environment.

Previous research has found news avoidance is increasing around the world. But New Zealanders have also shown something of a love-hate relationship with the news: avoidance rates are high, but so too is general interest in the news. At the same time, trust in the media has been steadily declining.

To make sense of this, we surveyed 1,204 people in New Zealand in February 2023. We asked about news avoidance and the motivation for it, and recorded demographic details such as age, gender and political belief.

We found 60% of survey participants reported they sometimes, often, or almost always avoid the news. This combined total is higher than any other national figure reported in other studies, with Greece and Bulgaria the next highest at 57%.



Women reported higher rates of news avoidance than men. This could be due to a legacy of unequal access to the news, and a perceived lack of diverse voices in New Zealand’s news production, causing some to feel the news just isn’t for them.



We also found people with far-left or far-right political beliefs were more likely to avoid the news than those with centrist views. Those nearer the ends of the political spectrum are less likely to find their views represented in major news outlets and therefore seek alternative news sources that support their worldview.



Avoiding depressing and untrustworthy news

The major reason given for news avoidance is the negative effect news has on mood (32.7%).

Most immediately, New Zealand had been hit by severe floods in Auckland and Cyclone Gabrielle in the North Island only a month before our survey. But more generally, there has been increased concern about the impact of news consumption on personal wellbeing since the pandemic.

Similarly, many New Zealanders are experiencing news fatigue, with nearly 20% of respondents saying they were worn out by the sheer quantity of news these days.



The second most popular reason given was a perception the news was untrustworthy or biased (30.1%). People with right-wing political beliefs were more likely to cite this.

This suggests the decline in trust might be more about right-wing audiences perceiving a left-wing bias in the media, rather than a general distrust of New Zealand media overall.

Roughly a quarter of respondents said the news is too sensationalist (25.3%). Ironically, the use of clickbait and alarming headlines to engage audiences may be driving them away in the competitive attention economy.

In contrast, younger people (18–24) were more likely to cite not having enough time as a reason for avoiding the news.

Does news avoidance matter?

Our high rates of news avoidance say several things about audiences. On one hand, skipping the news occasionally can help manage stress and keep people interested in the long run.

This might explain why New Zealanders show high rates of both news avoidance and interest in the news: avoiding the news some of the time might help people manage their overall ability to engage and care.

Furthermore, despite high news avoidance rates, voter turnout at the 2023 general election was 78%. News avoidance may not affect civic participation.

However, we also found New Zealanders have high rates of very low or no news consumption at all. Just over 13% of participants reported they avoid the news “almost always”, more than in any other survey internationally.

Instead of consuming traditional news, many are likely turning to YouTube, social media and blogs, which often lack the more rigorous journalistic standards applied by mainstream media.

Scapegoating the news media

It might be easy to conclude New Zealand’s high rates of news avoidance are an implicit criticism of the media themselves. But this is to overlook the nature of their work and the immense challenges they face.

Holding governments to account and covering crises or divisive issues can be an unpopular and thankless task. Blaming the messenger is perhaps an understandable response.

But we also expect the news media to compete with information giants such as Facebook and Google, which do not employ journalists or recognise any real responsibility in disseminating news.

This feeds a commercial environment where traditional media must compete for attention and revenue against platforms that operate without the same ethical and professional standards.

Our findings also highlight the difficulty of satisfying an increasingly polarised news audience. With diverse groups perceiving bias and untrustworthiness differently, it’s nearly impossible to keep everyone happy.

With Google recently threatening to remove local news from its search engine due to its opposition to the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill (which would require digital platforms to pay for news content), these issues are not going away soon.

Rather than scapegoat the media for high news avoidance rates, we see our survey results as part of a broader argument for supporting and strengthening what is an essential service in a functioning democracy.

The Conversation

Alex Beattie receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and
Employment.

John Kerr works for the Public Health Communication Centre, which is funded by a philanthropic endowment from the Gama Foundation.

Richard Arnold receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and the Tertiary Education Commission. He is a member of the New Zealand Labour Party.

ref. News blues: study reveals why 60% of Kiwis avoid the news at least some of the time – https://theconversation.com/news-blues-study-reveals-why-60-of-kiwis-avoid-the-news-at-least-some-of-the-time-240544

One year of war in Gaza – protect journalists now, says IPI

This week marked the grim one-year anniversary of the surprise October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the beginning of the Israeli war on Gaza — a conflict that has taken a devastating toll on journalists and media outlets in Palestine, reports the International Press Institute.

In Gaza, Israeli strikes have killed at least 123 journalists (Gaza media sources say 178 killed) — the largest number of journalists to be killed in any armed conflict in this span of time to date.

Dozens of media outlets have been leveled. Independent investigations such as those conducted by Forbidden Stories have found that in several of these cases journalists were intentionally targeted by the Israeli military — which constitutes a war crime.

Over the past year IPI has stood with its press freedom partners calling for an immediate end to the killing of journalists in Gaza as well as for international media to be allowed unfettered access to report independently from inside Gaza.

In May, IPI and its partner IMS jointly presented the 2024 World Press Freedom Hero award to Palestinian journalists in Gaza. The award recognised the extraordinary courage and resilience that Palestinian journalists have demonstrated in being the world’s eyes and ears in Gaza.

This week, IPI renewed its call on the international community to protect journalists in Gaza as well as in the West Bank and Lebanon. Allies of Israel, including Media Freedom Coalition members, must pressure the Israeli government to protect journalist safety and stop attacks on the press.

This also includes the growing media censorship demonstrated by Israel’s recent closure of Al Jazeera’s Ramallah bureau.

Raising awareness
IPI was at the UN in Geneva this week with its partners Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), Reporters without Borders (RSF), and the European Federation of Journalists (EFJ), and others for high-level meetings aimed at raising awareness of the continued attacks on the press and urging the international community to protect journalists.

Among the key messages: The continued killings of journalists in Gaza — and corresponding impunity — endangers journalists and press freedom everyone.

On this sombre anniversary, the joint advert in this week’s Washington Post honours the journalists bravely reporting on the war, often at great personal risk, and underscores IPI’s solidarity with those that dedicate their lives to uncovering the truth.

“But it is clear that solidarity is not enough. Action is needed,” said IPI in its statement.

“The international community must place effective pressure on the Israeli authorities to comply with international law; protect the safety of journalists; investigate the killing of journalists by its forces and secure accountability; and grant international media outlets immediate and unfettered access to report independently from Gaza.

“We urge the international community to meet this moment of crisis and stand up for the protection of journalists and freedom of the press in Gaza.

“An attack against journalists anywhere is an attack against freedom and democracy everywhere.”

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

West Papua – the war on our doorstep under The Pacific spotlight

Pacific Media Watch

ABC’s The Pacific has gained rare access into West Papua, a region ruled by Indonesia that has been plagued by military violence and political unrest for decades.

Now, as well as the long-running struggle for independence, some say the Melanesian region’s pristine environment is under threat by the expansion of logging and mining projects, reports The Pacific.

As Indonesia prepares to inaugurate a new President, Prabowo Subianto, a man accused of human rights abuses in the region, West Papua grapples with a humanitarian crisis.

The Pacific talks to indigenous Papuans in a refugee settlement about being displaced, teachers who want change to the education system and locals who have hope for a better future.

A spokesman for the Indonesian Foreign Ministry told The Pacific that Indonesia was cooperating with all relevant United Nations agencies and was providing them with up to date information about what is happening in West Papua.

This Inside Indonesia’s Secret War story was produced with the help of ABC Indonesia’s Hellena Souisa.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Published by the Star – the genocide advert that Stuff didn’t want you to see

By John Minto

Published in the Christchurch Star newspaper yesterday — this was the advert rejected last week by Stuff, New Zealand’s major news website, by an editorial management which apparently thinks pro-Israel sympathies are more important than the industrial-scale slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza and Lebanon.

Stuff told the Palestinian Solidarity Movement Aotearoa (PSNA) on Thursday last week it would not print this full-page “genocide in their own words” advertisement which had been booked and paid to go in all Stuff newspapers this week.

Stuff gave no “official” reason for banning the advert about Israel’s war in Gaza aside from saying they would not do so “while the ongoing conflict is developing”.

It seems that for Stuff, pro-Israel sympathies are more important that Palestinian realities.

It’s worth pointing out that Stuff has, over many years, printed full page advertisements from a Christian Zionist, Pastor Nigel Woodley, from Hastings.

Woodley’s advertisements have been full of the most egregious, fanciful, misinformation and anti-Palestinian racism.

Our advertisement on the other hand is 100 percent factual and speaks truth to power – demanding the New Zealand government hold Israel to account for its war crimes and 76-years of brutal military occupation of Palestine.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Bring France into decolonisation talks, French Polynesian president tells UN

By Stefan Armbruster 0f BenarNews

French Polynesia’s president and civil society leaders have called on the United Nations to bring France to the negotiating table and set a timetable for the decolonisation of the Pacific territory.

More than a decade after the archipelago was re-listed for decolonisation by the UN General Assembly, France has refused to acknowledge the world’s peak diplomatic organisation has a legitimate role.

France’s reputation has taken a battering as an out-of-touch colonial power since deadly violence erupted in Kanaky New Caledonia in May, sparked by a now abandoned French government attempt to dilute the voting power of indigenous Kanak people.

Pro-independence French Polynesian President Moetai Brotherson told the UN Decolonisation Committee’s annual meeting in New York on Monday that “after a decade of silence” France must be “guided” to participate in “dialogue.”

“Our government’s full support for a comprehensive, transparent and peaceful decolonisation process with France, under the scrutiny of the United Nations, can pave the way for a decolonisation process that serves as an example to the world,” Brotherson said.

Brotherson called for France to finally co-operate in creating a roadmap and timeline for the decolonisation process, pointing to unrest in New Caledonia that “reminds us of the delicate balance that peace requires”.

‘Problem with decolonisation’
In August, he warned France “always had a problem with decolonisation” in the Pacific, where it also controls the territories of New Caledonia and Wallis and Futuna.

The 121 islands of French Polynesia stretch over a vast expanse of the Pacific, with a population of about 280,000, and was first settled more than 2000 years ago.

Often referred to as Tahiti after the island with the biggest population, France declared the archipelago a protectorate in 1842, followed by full annexation in 1880.

France last year attended the UN committee for the first time since the territory’s re-inscription in 2013 as awaiting decolonisation, after decades of campaigning by French Polynesian politicians.

French Permanent Representative to the UN Nicolas De Rivière responds to French Polynesian President Moetai Brotherson at the 79th session of the Decolonisation Committe on Monday. Image: UNTV

“I would like to clarify once again that this change of method does not imply a change of policy,” French permanent representative to the UN Nicolas De Rivière told the committee on Monday.

“There is no process between the state and the Polynesian territory that reserves a role for the United Nations,” he said, and pointed out France contributes almost 2 billion euros (US $2.2 billion) each year, or almost 30 percent of the territory’s GDP.

After the UN session, Brotherson told the media that France’s position is “off the mark”.

17 speakers back independence
French Polynesia was initially listed for decolonisation by the UN in 1946 but removed a year later as France fought to hold onto its overseas territories after the Second World War.

Granted limited autonomy in 1984, with control over local government services, France retained administration over justice, security, defence, foreign policy and the currency.

Seventeen pro-independence and four pro-autonomy – who support the status quo – speakers gave impassioned testimony to the committee.

Lawyer and Protestant church spokesman Philippe Neuffer highlighted children in the territory “solely learn French and Western history”.

“They deserve the right to learn our complete history, not the one centred on the French side of the story,” he said.

“Talking about the nuclear tests without even mentioning our veterans’ history and how they fought to get a court to condemn France for poisoning people with nuclear radiation.”

France conducted 193 nuclear tests over three decades until 1996 in French Polynesia.

‘We demand justice’
“Our lands are contaminated, our health compromised and our spirits burned,” president of the Mururoa E Tatou Association Tevaerai Puarai told the UN denouncing it as French “nuclear colonialism”.

“We demand justice. We demand freedom,” Puarai said.

He said France needed to take full responsibility for its “nuclear crimes”, referencing a controversial 10-year compensation deal reached in 2009.

Some Māʼohi indigenous people, many French residents and descendants in the territory fear independence and the resulting loss of subsidies would devastate the local economy and public services.

Pro-autonomy local Assembly member Tepuaraurii Teriitahi told the committee, “French Polynesia is neither oppressed nor exploited by France.”

“The idea that we could find 2 billion a year to replace this contribution on our own is an illusion that would lead to the impoverishment and downfall of our hitherto prosperous country,” she said.

Copyright ©2015-2024, BenarNews. Republished with the permission of BenarNews.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The government’s social media ban for kids will exempt ‘low-risk’ platforms. What does that mean?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University

BAZA Production/Shutterstock

In a speech to the New South Wales and South Australian government social media summit today, Federal Minister for Communications Michelle Rowland announced more details of how the federal government’s proposed social media ban would actually work.

The government first announced the ban last month, shortly after SA said it will ban children under 14 from social media. But experts have heavily criticised the idea, and this week more than 120 experts from Australia and overseas wrote an open letter to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and state and territory premiers urging a rethink.

Despite this, the government appears to be ploughing ahead with the proposed ban. The details Rowland announced today do not meaningfully address many of the criticisms made over the past few weeks.

In fact, they actually raise new problems.

What are the details of the social media ban?

In her speech, Rowland said the government will amend the Online Safety Act to “place the onus on platforms, not parents or young people” to enforce the proposed social media ban.

The changes will be implemented over 12 months to give industry and the regulator time to implement key processes.

The government says it “will set parameters to guide platforms in designing social media that allows connections, but not harms, to flourish”. These parameters could address some of the “addictive” features of these platforms, for instance by limiting potential harms by prioritising content feeds from accounts people follow, or making age-appropriate versions of their apps.

The government is also considering an:

exemption framework to accommodate access for social media services that demonstrate a low risk of harm to children.

The problem with “low risk”

But allowing young people to access social media platforms that have a demonstrated “low risk of harm” is fraught with issues.

Risk is difficult to define – especially when it comes to social media.

As I explained earlier this year around potential harms of artificial intelligence, risk “sits on a spectrum and is not absolute”. Risk cannot be determined simply by considering a social media platform itself, or by knowing the age of the person using it. What’s risky for one person may not be risky for someone else.

How, then, will the government determine which social media platforms have a “low risk of harm”?

Simply focusing on technical changes to social media platform design in determining what constitutes “low risk” will not address key areas of potential harm. This may give parents a false sense of security when it comes to the “low-risk” solutions technology companies offer.

Let’s assume for a moment that Meta’s new “teen-friendly” Instagram accounts qualify as having a “low risk of harm” and young people would still be allowed to use them.

The teen version of Instagram will be set to private by default and have stronger content restrictions in place than regular accounts. It will also allow parents to see the categories of content children are accessing, and the accounts they follow, but will still require parental oversight.

But this doesn’t solve the risk problem.

There will still be harmful content on social media. And young people will still be exposed to it when they are old enough to have an unrestricted account, potentially without the support and guidance they need to safely engage with it. If children don’t gain necessary skills for navigating social media at an early age, potential harms may be deferred, rather than addressed and safely negotiated with parental support.

A better approach

The harmful content on social media platforms doesn’t just pose a risk to young people. It poses a risk to everybody – adults included. For this reason, the government’s heavy focus on encouraging platforms to demonstrate a “low risk of harm” only to young people seems a little misguided.

A better approach would be to strive to ensure social media platforms are safe for all users, regardless of their age. Ensuring platforms have mechanisms for users to report potentially harmful content – and for platforms to remove inappropriate content – is crucial for keeping people safe.

Platforms should also ensure users can block accounts, such as when a person is being bullied or harassed, with consequences for account holders found to engage in such harmful behaviour.

It is important that government requirements for “low-risk” accounts include these and other mechanisms to identify and limit harmful content at source. Tough penalties for tech companies that fail to comply with legislation are also needed.

The federal government could also provide extra resources for parents and children, to help them to navigate social media content safely.

A report released this week by the New South Wales government showed 91% of parents with children aged 5–17 believe “more should be done to teach young people and their parents about the possible harms of social media”.

The SA government appears to be heeding this message. Today it also announced a plan for more social media education in schools.

Providing more proactive support like this, rather than pursuing social media bans, would go a long way to protecting young Australians while also ensuring they have access to helpful and supportive social media content.

Lisa M. Given receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and a former President of the Association of Information Science and Technology.

ref. The government’s social media ban for kids will exempt ‘low-risk’ platforms. What does that mean? – https://theconversation.com/the-governments-social-media-ban-for-kids-will-exempt-low-risk-platforms-what-does-that-mean-241120

What is pelvic organ prolapse and how is it treated?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer King, Senior Clinical Lecturer, University of Sydney

Halfpoint/Shutterstock

As a urogynaecologist I care exclusively for women with pelvic floor problems. These are the women with leaking bladders and weak supporting tissues allowing the vaginal walls to bulge outside.

Pelvic organ prolapse can be distressing or embarrassing and interfere with everyday activities. But it’s also common. For many women treatment is simple, effective and doesn’t involve surgery.

What is it pelvic organ prolapse?

Pelvic organ prolapse occurs when the supporting muscles and ligaments holding up the vagina are weakened, allowing the vaginal tissues to sag or stretch. The pelvic organs behind the vaginal walls – such as the bladder, bowel and uterus – can then drop out of position.

One or more organ may be involved. But other than being out of position, there is not necessarily any problem with how these organs function.

Prolapse is usually described according to which organ has dropped, for example “bladder prolapse” (cystocele). Severity is graded according to extent the vaginal wall has descended from its previous position.

A diagram shows four different kinds of pelvic organ prolapse: cystocele, enterocele, rectocele and unterine prolapse.
Prolapse can occur when the pelvic muscles holding organs in place are weakened.
Pepermpron/Shutterstock

What does it feel like?

Most women don’t know an organ or organs have prolapsed until they notice a protrusion from the vaginal opening. They may feel a soft lump bulging in the vagina when they’re washing.

Many simply feel aware “something is coming down”.

Other women may notice they can’t trust their bladder not to leak when they’re jumping on a trampoline or running at the gym. Or perhaps they find it harder to keep a tampon in position than it was before children.

How common is it?

Prolapse is very common and its likelihood increases with age. Based on routine vaginal examination (for example, for cervical screening), easily 50% of women in developed countries will be classified as having prolapse. Most of these will have no symptoms at all.

When defined by symptoms such as a vaginal bulge or difficulty passing urine, around 5% will have specific symptoms.

What causes pelvic organ prolapse?

Pregnancy and vaginal birth generally cause physical changes, such as relaxation of the vaginal tissues. For most women these are minor, but for some, prolapse can seriously impact quality of life.

After pregnancy some women may find they need to adjust physical activities – particularly high impact exercise or repetitive heavy lifting – as this can make prolapse symptoms more noticeable.

Women who give birth via caesarean section are less likely to experience prolapse and incontinence. However as caesareans have their own risk of serious complications, they can’t be recommended purely to avoid pelvic floor issues.

After vaginal delivery, ageing is the second-most common cause of prolapse. This is because the strength of the pelvic floor deteriorates as we age and especially after menopause.

Excessive weight lifting and high-impact exercise can also weaken these muscles.

Chronic lung problems, diabetes, high cholesterol, constipation and obesity further increase the severity of prolapse and incontinence.

Some women also have genetically poorer quality connective tissues, making them more at risk.

How is it treated?

Severe prolapse, which persistently extends through the vagina and causes significant discomfort, is often managed with surgery.

But it is not always required. In developed countries, only 6-18% of those diagnosed with pelvic prolapse will have surgery.

For milder cases, a clinician will usually recommend pelvic floor therapy.

A pregnant woman sits on an exercise ball on a yoga mat.
Specific exercises can help strengthen the pelvic floor during pregnancy and after child birth.
Cerrotalavan/Shutterstock

Structured pelvic floor muscle exercises (generally working with a therapist over time) are effective as an initial treatment when prolapse has occurred. Pelvic floor training during late pregnancy can also be used to treat and prevent further prolapse or urinary incontinence.




Read more:
Men have pelvic floors too – and can benefit when they exercise them regularly


Interestingly, general body strength and fitness does not translate into strong pelvic floor muscles – only specific exercises do this. But keeping your weight under control and managing other health conditions can help reduce symptoms.

Intravaginal support devices, called pessaries, can also substantially reduce symptoms. These are usually silicone rings or discs to help support the vaginal walls. They can be fitted by doctors, nurses or physiotherapists and can often be managed by women themselves.

Diagram of a vaginal pessary close-up next to diagram of pessary inserted in cross-section of vagina.
Pessaries are often made of silicone.
Pepermpron/Shutterstock

Prolapse can also cause mental health distress. Some women may find their body image suffers, and they may experience anxiety or depression which needs specific management.

What does surgery involve?

In severe cases, a clinician might recommend surgery if conservative management (such as pelvic floor muscle training) has been ineffective.

Surgery can also be necessary in those uncommon cases where the prolapse is affecting kidney or bowel function. In these situations surgery can restore quality of life.

Surgery for prolapse can be performed through the abdomen (usually keyhole approach) or vaginally. For most women, mesh is not required and the surgery involves reshaping and reattaching the stretched tissues to strong ligaments.

Unfortunately this is not always successful, particularly when the tissues are very weak. Approximately 25% of women will need further surgery.

In 2017, the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration withdrew their approval for vaginal mesh products for prolapse, after safety concerns. There has since been a marked reduction in surgery for prolapse and urinary incontinence.

However we have not seen a corresponding increase in non-surgical treatments, so we can only assume many women are simply not seeking treatment at all.

We do need to continue working towards better and safer products to improve the durability of our pelvic floor repairs. But in the meantime we must also continue to provide individualised care for every affected woman.

For many, maintaining pelvic floor strength and a healthy lifestyle will be enough to return to and enjoy their normal activities. The first step is to talk to your GP, who can explain what options will work best for you.

The Conversation

Jennifer King is affiliated with the International Urogynecological Association – secretary

ref. What is pelvic organ prolapse and how is it treated? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-pelvic-organ-prolapse-and-how-is-it-treated-239199

Hope returns to Kashmir after elections, but the ultimate power still belongs to Narendra Modi’s government

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leoni Connah, Lecturer in International Relations, Flinders University

This year’s local elections in India’s northernmost territory of Jammu and Kashmir were the first since the national government controversially stripped the region of its semi-autonomous status in 2019. It’s also the first local election in Muslim-majority Kashmir since 2014.

It was a significant moment for the region. The election will restore, at least partially, some degree of self-rule five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi took it away.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) was delivered a resounding defeat when the official results were released this week. The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and Congress alliance won 48 seats in the 90-seat regional legislature. The BJP won 29, mostly in the Hindu-majority Jammu region.

The former chief minister, Omar Abdullah, was also reinstated as leader. This was a surprising turn given he lost his race for a seat in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, in the national elections a few months ago.

What’s changed?

Elections in Jammu and Kashmir have been affected in the past by boycotts and low voter turnout, due largely to public mistrust of the government.

There was also a sense of betrayal after Modi’s government revoked Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. This had granted special privileges to local residents and gave the region its own constitution and ability to make its own laws.

However, voter turnout in this year’s election reached 64%. And the participation of separatists and independent candidates suggested a change in attitude toward the political process.

For the BJP, the elections are evidence that normalcy has returned to Kashmir after years of ongoing violence. Modi said in a tweet: “Many people claimed that the Jammu and Kashmir would burn if Article 370 was abrogated. However, it didn’t burn, it blossomed.”

Modi had promised during the campaign that “statehood” would be restored, though he suggested this would be realised only if the BJP was victorious.

With Modi’s opposition winning, some believed the election to be a de-facto referendum on the territory’s special status.

The JKNC has always opposed the revocation of Article 370 and the stripping of Kashmir’s autonomy. The party has promised to work towards restoring that special status, as well as repealing the draconian Public Safety Act, which allows for the detention of people for up to two years without charge, and seeking amnesty for prisoners.

In reality, however, the result won’t undo the revocation of Article 370. The new local assembly will have the power to make and amend laws, debate local issues and approve decisions for the territory, particularly in education and culture. But Abdullah will still need to seek the federally appointed lieutenant governor’s approval on any major decisions.

Even if many Kashmiris would like to prevent the BJP from extending its reach into the region, the party still maintains some control from New Delhi.

The BJP expanded the lieutenant governor’s powers over public order and policing. The lieutenant governor also has control over the regional anti-corruption bureau and the Directorate of Public Prosecutions.

These powers were heavily criticised by the opposition parties in the region.

Future of democracy?

In recent years, Indian security forces have cracked down on the news media, social media and other forms of communication throughout the region, particularly any forms of Kashmiri solidarity with Palestine.

Human rights advocates say abuses and repression continue in the region, and the climate of fear has had a detrimental impact on Kashmiri life.

Statehood remains one of the biggest grievances for Kashmiri residents. Abdullah said himself that “restoration of full, undiluted statehood for [Jammu and Kashmir] is a prerequisite for these elections”.

Only time will tell if these demands can be addressed, but there is hope a new local government might begin to change the bleak situation in Kashmir.

As I spoke about in a recent podcast, there is optimism the new government will go a long way towards restoring some level of autonomy in Kashmir, as long as it is not obstructed by the lieutenant governor’s new powers.

Leoni Connah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Hope returns to Kashmir after elections, but the ultimate power still belongs to Narendra Modi’s government – https://theconversation.com/hope-returns-to-kashmir-after-elections-but-the-ultimate-power-still-belongs-to-narendra-modis-government-240990

Why hurricanes like Milton in the US and cyclones in Australia are becoming more intense and harder to predict

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist in Extreme Weather, The University of Melbourne

Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes and typhoons in other parts of the world, have caused huge damage in many places recently. The United States has just been hit by Hurricane Milton, within two weeks of Hurricane Helene. Climate change likely made their impacts worse.

In Australia, the tropical cyclone season (November to April) is approaching. The Bureau of Meteorology this week released its long-range forecast for this season.

It predicts an average number of tropical cyclones, 11, are likely to form in the region. Four are expected to cross the Australian coast. However, the risk of severe cyclones is higher than average.

So what does an average number actually mean in our rapidly changing climate? And why is there a higher risk of intense cyclones?

The bureau’s forecast is consistent with scientific evidence suggesting climate change is likely to result in fewer but more severe tropical cyclones. They are now more likely to bring stronger winds and more intense rain and flooding.

Climate change is making prediction harder

Our knowledge of tropical cyclones and climate change is based on multiple lines of evidence globally and for the Australian region. This work includes our studies based on observations and modelling.

The bureau’s seasonal outlook in recent years has assumed an average of 11 tropical cyclones occurring in our region (covering an area of the southern tropics between longitudes 90°E and 160°E). It’s based on the average value for all years back to 1969.

However, for the past couple of decades the annual average is below nine tropical cyclones. In earlier decades, it was over 12. This long-term downward trend adds to the challenge of seasonal predictions.

The most recent above-average season (assuming an average of 11) was almost 20 years ago, in the 2005–06 summer with 12 tropical cyclones. Since then, any prediction of above-average tropical cyclone seasons has not eventuated.

El Niño and La Niña influences may be changing too

Historical observations suggest more tropical cyclones tend to occur near Australia during La Niña events. This is a result of warm, moist water and air near Australia, compared with El Niño events. The shifting between El Niño and La Niña states in the Pacific region is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Such events can be predicted with a useful degree of accuracy several months ahead in some cases. For example, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast:

La Niña is favored to emerge in September–November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January–March 2025.

Based on that, one might expect a higher-than-average number of tropical cyclones for the Australian region. However, the ENSO influence on tropical cyclones has weakened in our region. It’s another factor that’s making long-range predictions harder.

The bureau’s ENSO outlook is somewhat closer to neutral ENSO conditions, based on its modelling, compared to NOAA’s leaning more toward La Niña. The bureau says:

Should La Niña form in the coming months, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived.

The bureau’s prediction of an average number of tropical cyclones this season is broadly consistent with its prediction of close-to-average ENSO conditions.

So what does this all mean for this cyclone season?

If we end up getting an average Australian season for the current climate, this might actually mean fewer tropical cyclones than the historical average. The number might be closer to eight or nine rather than 11 or 12. (Higher or lower values than this range are still possible.)

However, those that do occur could have an increased chance of being category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones. These have stronger winds, with gusts typically exceeding 225km per hour, and are more likely to cause severe floods and coastal damage.

If we end up getting more than the recent average of eight to nine tropical cyclones, which could happen if NOAA predictions of La Niña conditions eventuate, that increases the risk of impacts. However, there is one partially good news story from climate change relating to this, if the influence of La Niña is less than it used to be on increasing tropical cyclone activity.

Another factor is that the world’s oceans are much warmer than usual. Warm ocean water is one of several factors that provide the energy needed for a tropical cyclone to form.

Many ocean heat records have been set recently. This means we have been in “uncharted waters” from a temperature perspective. It adds further uncertainty if relying on what occurred in the past when making predictions for the current climate.

Up-to-date evidence is vital as climate changes

The science makes it clear we need to plan for tropical cyclone impacts in a different way from what might have worked in the past. This includes being prepared for potentially fewer tropical cyclones overall, but with those that do occur being more likely to cause more damage. This means there are higher risks of damaging winds, flooding and coastal erosion.

Seasonal prediction guidance can be part of improved planning. There’s also a need for enhanced design standards and other climate change adaptation activities. All can be updated regularly to stay consistent with the best available scientific knowledge.

Increased preparedness is more important than ever to help reduce the potential for disasters caused by tropical cyclones in the current and future climate.


The authors acknowledge the contribution of CSIRO researcher Hamish Ramsay during the writing of this article.

The Conversation

Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne, including through the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the Melbourne Energy Institute.

Liz Ritchie-Tyo receives funding from The Australian Research Council and The U.S. Office of Naval Research.

Savin Chand receives funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program (NESP) and the UK-based Gallagher Research Centre (GRC).

ref. Why hurricanes like Milton in the US and cyclones in Australia are becoming more intense and harder to predict – https://theconversation.com/why-hurricanes-like-milton-in-the-us-and-cyclones-in-australia-are-becoming-more-intense-and-harder-to-predict-241000

As the conflicts in the Middle East dramatically escalate, could Iran acquire a nuclear bomb?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Mamouri, Research fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

As Israel continues its assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran appears increasingly backed into a corner.

Israel’s efforts to weaken Iran’s proxy network have focused on a number of objectives: eliminating key Hezbollah leaders, destroying their weapons and other military sites, and targeting large numbers of fighters and sympathisers.

Hezbollah has undoubtedly been weakened over the past few weeks, which presents a dilemma for Iran. Could this sustained pressure on its main militant proxy group push Iran towards finally acquiring a nuclear weapon?

Iran’s deterrence strategy

The use of armed proxy networks as a deterrence strategy is a well-known approach employed by countries worldwide.

Iran has successfully adopted this strategy for decades, starting with Hezbollah in Lebanon and extending to Palestinian militant groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, various Iraqi militant factions, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

This strategy has allowed Iran to project power in the region and counter pressure from the United States, Israel and their allies, while deterring any direct military confrontation from its adversaries.

Both Iran and Israel have until recently appeared reluctant to engage in a full-scale war. Instead, they have adhered to certain rules of engagement in which they apply pressure on each other without escalating to all-out conflict. This is something neither side can afford.

Iran has long avoided direct confrontation with Israel, even when Israel has targeted its groups in Syria and assassinated several Iranian nuclear scientists over the past few decades.

Recently, however, this strategy has shifted. Feeling the impact of Israel’s prolonged assaults on its proxy network, Iran has responded by launching two direct missile attacks against Israel in the past six months.

This indicates that as pressure on Iran’s proxies intensifies, Tehran may increasingly resort to alternative strategies to reestablish effective deterrence against Israel and its Western allies.

Some analysts believe Israel may now be gaining what is called “escalation dominance” over Iran. As one group of experts has explained, this happens when one combatant escalates a conflict

in ways that will be disadvantageous or costly to the adversary while the adversary cannot do the same in return, either because it has no escalation options or because the available options would not improve the adversary’s situation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed a “harsh response” to Iran’s latest missile attack against Israel in early October. This could push Iran further towards changing its deterrence strategy, particularly if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Calls for a new nuclear strategy

With pressure growing on Iran’s leaders, the regime is now openly discussing whether to declare a military nuclear program.

This would represent a major shift in Iranian policy. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purposes, with no intention of developing a military component. The US and its allies have contested this assertion.

On October 8, the Iranian parliament announced it had received draft legislation for the “expansion of Iran’s nuclear industry”, which will be discussed in parliament. The nature of this expansion is not yet known – it’s unclear whether it will include a military program. However, recent statements by Iranian officials suggest such an agenda.

Kamal Kharrazi, a senior politician and member of the Expediency Discernment Council, a high-ranking administrative assembly appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, forewarned of a reconsideration of Iran’s nuclear program. In an interview in May, he said:

Iran’s level of deterrence will be different if the existence of Iran is threatened. We have no decision to produce a nuclear bomb, but we will have to change our nuclear doctrine if such threat occurs.

Calls in Iran for a revision of the country’s defence doctrine are growing louder. This week, nearly 40 lawmakers wrote a letter to the Supreme National Security Council, which decides on Iran’s general security policy. They demanded the council reconsider the current nuclear policy, noting that Khamenei’s fatwa forbidding the production of a nuclear bomb could be subject to change due to current developments.

In the same vein, Ayatollah Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic revolution and former Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini, called last week for “enhancing the level of deterrence” against Israel. Iranian media interpreted this as referring to nuclear weapons.

There have also been reports speculating that an earthquake in Iran last week could actually have been a nuclear bomb test.

However, the US has said there is no evidence yet that Iran is moving towards building a nuclear weapon.

Revived nuclear deal increasingly unlikely

In 2015, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union. This deal allowed it to pursue a civilian nuclear program with certain restrictions on its critical nuclear facilities. In exchange, the US and its allies agreed to lift sanctions on Iran.

However, the US withdrew from the deal under then president Donald Trump in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran. Since then, Iran has barred several international inspectors from monitoring some of its nuclear sites.

It is now believed to be just weeks away from producing enough weapons-grade material to build a bomb.

Efforts to revive the nuclear negotiations have not gone far in recent years, though Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has suggested his government would be willing to engage again with the West and resume the talks.

Yet, if Israel carries out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in retaliation for last week’s missile attack, as has been speculated, Iran may deem it necessary to opt for the weaponisation of its nuclear program instead.

If Iran declares a military nuclear program, it would do so with the expressed intention of restoring a deterrence balance with Israel that could prevent a full-scale war. Israel is believed to possess nuclear weapons, but has never confirmed it.

However, such a decision is likely to have dire implications for both Iran and the region.

It would undoubtedly lead to more international pressure and US sanctions on Iran, making it even more isolated. And it could spark a nuclear arms race in the region, as Saudi Arabia has already pledged to pursue a nuclear arsenal if Iran develops one.

Shahram Akbarzadeh receives funding from Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with Middle east Council on Global Affairs (Doha).

Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. As the conflicts in the Middle East dramatically escalate, could Iran acquire a nuclear bomb? – https://theconversation.com/as-the-conflicts-in-the-middle-east-dramatically-escalate-could-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-bomb-240893

AI affects everyone – including Indigenous people. It’s time we have a say in how it’s built

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tamika Worrell, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Critical Indigenous Studies, Macquarie University

Since artificial intelligence (AI) became mainstream over the past two years, many of the risks it poses have been widely documented. As well as fuelling deep fake porn, threatening personal privacy and accelerating the climate crisis, some people believe the emerging technology could even lead to human extinction.

But some risks of AI are still poorly understood. These include the very particular risks to Indigenous knowledges and communities.

There’s a simple reason for this: the AI industry and governments have largely ignored Indigenous people in the development and regulation of AI technologies. Put differently, the world of AI is too white.

AI developers and governments need to urgently fix this if they are serious about ensuring everybody shares the benefits of AI. As Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people like to say, “nothing about us, without us”.

Indigenous concerns

Indigenous peoples around the world are not ignoring AI. They are having conversations, conducting research and sharing their concerns about the current trajectory of it and related technologies.

A well-documented problem is the theft of cultural intellectual property. For example, users of AI image generation programs such as DeepAI can artificially generate artworks in mere seconds which mimic Indigenous styles and stories of art.

This demonstrates how easy it is for someone using AI to misappropriate cultural knowledges. These generations are taken from large data sets of publicly available imagery to create something new. But they miss the storying and cultural knowledge present in our art practices.

AI technologies also fuel the spread of misinformation about Indigenous people.

The internet is already riddled with misinformation about Indigenous people. The long-running Creative Spirits website, which is maintained by a non-Indigenous person, is a prominent example.

Generative AI systems are likely to make this problem worse. They often conflate us with other global Indigenous peoples around the world. They also draw on inappropriate sources, including Creative Spirits.

During last year’s Voice to Parliament referendum in Australia, “no” campaigners also used AI-generated images depicting Indigenous people. This demonstrates the role of AI in political contexts and the harm it can cause to us.

Another problem is the lack of understanding of AI among Indigenous people. Some 40% of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in Australia don’t know what generative AI is. This reflects an urgent need to provide relevant information and training to Indigenous communities on the use of the technology.

There is also concern about the use of AI in classroom contexts and its specific impact on Indigenous students.

Looking to the future

Hawaiian and Samoan Scholar Jason Lewis says:

We must think more expansively about AI and all the other computational systems in which we find ourselves increasingly enmeshed. We need to expand the operational definition of intelligence used when building these systems to include the full spectrum of behaviour we humans use to make sense of the world.

Key to achieving this is the idea of “Indigenous data sovereignty”. This would mean Indigenous people retain sovereignty over their own data, in the sense that they own and control access to it.

In Australia, a collective known as Maiam nayri Wingara offers important considerations and principles for data sovereignty and governance. They affirm Indigenous rights to govern and control our data ecosystems, from creation to infrastructure.

The National Agreement on Closing the Gap also affirms the importance of Indigenous data control and access.

This is reaffirmed at a global level as well. In 2020, a group of Indigenous scholars from around the world published a position paper laying out how Indigenous protocols can inform ethically created AI. This kind of AI would centralise the knowledges of Indigenous peoples.

In a positive step, the Australian government’s recently proposed set of AI guardrails highlight the importance of Indigenous data sovereignty.

For example, the guardrails include the need to ensure additional transparency and make extra considerations when it comes to using data about or owned by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, to “mitigate the perpetuation of existing social inequalities”.

Indigenous Futurisms

Grace Dillon, a scholar from a group of North American Indigenous people known as the Anishinaabe, first coined the term “Indigenous Futurisms”.

Ambelin Kwaymullina, an academic and futurist practitioner from the Palyku nation in Western Australia, defines it as:

visions of what-could-be that are informed by ancient Aboriginal cultures and by our deep understandings of oppressive systems.

These visions, Kwaymullina writes, are “as diverse as Indigenous peoples ourselves”. They are also unified by “an understanding of reality as living, interconnected whole in which human beings are but one strand of life amongst many, and a non-linear view of time”.

So how can AI technologies be informed by Indigenous ways of knowing?

A first step is for industry to involve Indigenous people in creating, maintaining and evaluating the technologies – rather than asking them retrospectively to approve work already done.

Governments need to also do more than highlight the importance of Indigenous data sovereignty in policy documents. They need to meaningfully consult with Indigenous peoples to regulate the use of these technologies. This consultation must aim to ensure ethical AI behaviour among organisations and everyday users that honours Indigenous worldviews and realities.

AI developers and governments like to claim they are serious about ensuring AI technology benefits all of humanity. But unless they start involving Indigenous people more in developing and regulating the technology, their claims ring hollow.

The Conversation

Tamika Worrell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. AI affects everyone – including Indigenous people. It’s time we have a say in how it’s built – https://theconversation.com/ai-affects-everyone-including-indigenous-people-its-time-we-have-a-say-in-how-its-built-239605

‘Violence at all levels’: UN report into the abuse of women and girls in sport is a wake-up call for Australia

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor (Practice), Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University, Monash University

PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

This week the United Nations (UN) Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls presented a report detailing the violence experienced by women and girls in sport globally.

The report provides a global snapshot of the abuse women athletes experience, who is most likely to perpetrate the violence, and makes recommendations on what should been done to promote safety of women and girls.

Off the back of the Paris Olympic and Paralympic games, where Australia cheered on the record-breaking success of women athletes, the report should be a wake-up call for Australian sports and clubs.

Abuse of women and girls in sport

Drawing on more than 100 submissions and consultations with 50 people, the report finds:

Women and girls in sport face widespread, overlapping and grave forms and manifestations of violence at all levels.

These abusive behaviours include coercive control, physical violence, corporal punishment, verbal abuse, social exclusion, bullying and identity abuse.

The impacts of this violence are wide-ranging: physical injuries, insomnia, fear and anxiety, reduced self-confidence, substance misuse, eating disorders, self harm, and decline in athletic performance and participation.

These impacts can extend well beyond the athlete’s involvement in their sport.

Women and girls also experience economic violence in sport. For example, when women athletes do not have control over their earnings, or when they are coerced into signing exploitative contracts.

The report notes women athletes also experience heightened rates of abusive and harassing behaviours in online settings. This includes sexual harassment and threats, racism, ridicule, body shaming, sexualised comments, stalking, doxing and revenge porn.

Perpetrators are wide-ranging. They include coaches, managers, spectators, teachers, peers, sports lawyers, referees and medical staff.

The report describes sexual harassment and abuse as “rampant” and acknowledges the high rate of sexual violence, in particular with relationships between coaches and athletes.

This includes grooming of younger athletes, where power and control dynamics, combined with an abuse of trust between an adult and child athlete, provide the conditions for sexual abuse to proliferate.

It follows a 2023 report from the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) and UN Women, which estimates 21% of girls worldwide have experienced at least one form of sexual abuse as a child in sport.

Is this a problem in Australia?

Australians often pride themselves on how sports bring the nation, communities and families together but we too have a wide-reaching problem in this area.

In 2021, a review of Swimming Australia found women athletes and coaches had experienced physical and mental abuse while the “Change the Routine” review of Gymnastics Australia revealed child abuse and neglect, misconduct, bullying, abuse, sexual harassment and assault towards gymnasts.

More recently, a review by Sports Integrity Australia into Australian volleyball, which revealed systemic verbal and physical abuse of athletes, prompted a formal apology to past athletes.

And a 2024 Deakin University study showed 87% of Australian sportswomen had experienced online harm within the past year.

A lack of accountability and consequence

In the traditionally male-dominated culture of sport, abusers have often gone unsanctioned, while those who experience abuse often leave their sport early and with significant consequences to their careers, financial stability, and mental and physical wellbeing.

There are examples where abuse has been minimised or ignored by those in leadership to protect the reputation of the team or the sporting code, and where coaches have been able to move between teams without consequence.

Take, for example, the sexual abuse of young female gymnasts by United States coach Larry Nassar.

The first complaint against Nassar was made in 1997. Despite this, and the numerous other complaints which followed, Nassar remained in his coaching position with USA Gymnastics and Michigan State University until 2015. In December 2017 he was convicted of numerous counts of sexual abuse of minors.

Outcomes of investigations by sporting bodies often remain confidential. For example, in 2017 the Fremantle Dockers and the AFL were criticised for their use of a “confidentiality agreement” in settling a sexual harassment matter.

This impunity demonstrates a significant lack of accountability.

The barriers to reporting abuse in sport

There are significant barriers to reporting.

Women elite athletes may fear losing their funding and sponsorship deals if they report abuse.

In Australia, the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse heard child athletes are most at risk of experiencing abuse by a person of authority (such as a coach) when they are about to achieve their best performance.

As the UN Report states, it is at this time that “there is very little to gain by revealing the abuse and too much to lose”.

This must change.

When sporting codes put a desire to win above safeguarding and accountability, the clear message sent to victims is that violence is excusable, and that sporting heroes are immune to the consequences of their abusive actions.

Raising awareness around early identification of abusive behaviours is key.

The UN report reveals athletes often feel uncertain and uncomfortable in identifying early forms of abusive behaviours and lack information on what supports are available to them when they do.

Ensuring a suite of reporting pathways is also critical. There is no one-size-fits-all model.

Why Australia should take the lead

Participating in sport has significant benefits. But sport settings must be safe for all.

Many sporting organisations and clubs have recognised the problem of abuse of women and girls in sport, rolling out respect and responsibility programs, sexual harassment policies, as well as clearer reporting and investigation policies.

This is a good start but must be built on.

Indeed, the safety of women and girls must be a key focus of the Australian High Performance “Win Well” strategy for the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Recent initiatives and policy changes should be monitored to examine how they work and whether they deliver safer outcomes for women and girls in sport at all levels.

Responses to proven allegations of abuse must hold perpetrators to account. And critically, investigations must be independent, transparent and timely.

The UN report reminds us “sports is a microcosm of society”.

Violence against women and children in Australia has been declared a national emergency – ensuring the safety of women and girls in all sport settings is one critical component of addressing that crisis.

The Conversation

Kate has received funding for family violence-related research from the Australian Research Council, Australian Institute of Criminology, Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety, the Victorian, Queensland and ACT governments, the Commonwealth Department of Social Services and the Victorian Women’s Trust. This piece is written by Kate Fitz-Gibbon in her role at Monash University and is wholly independent of Kate Fitz-Gibbon’s role as Chair of Respect Victoria.

ref. ‘Violence at all levels’: UN report into the abuse of women and girls in sport is a wake-up call for Australia – https://theconversation.com/violence-at-all-levels-un-report-into-the-abuse-of-women-and-girls-in-sport-is-a-wake-up-call-for-australia-239085

Are you over 75? Here’s what you need to know about vitamin D

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elina Hypponen, Professor of Nutritional and Genetic Epidemiology, University of South Australia

OPPO Find X5 Pro/Unsplash

Vitamin D is essential for bone health, immune function and overall wellbeing. And it becomes even more crucial as we age.

New guidelines from the international Endocrine Society recommend people aged 75 and over should consider taking vitamin D supplements.

But why is vitamin D so important for older adults? And how much should they take?

Young people get most vitamin D from the sun

In Australia, it is possible for most people under 75 to get enough vitamin D from the sun throughout the year. For those who live in the top half of Australia – and for all of us during summer – we only need to have skin exposed to the sun for a few minutes on most days.

The body can only produce a certain amount of vitamin D at a time. So staying in the sun any longer than needed is not going to help increase your vitamin D levels, while it will increase your risk of skin cancer.

But it’s difficult for people aged over 75 to get enough vitamin D from a few minutes of sunshine, so the Endocrine Society recommends people get 800 IU (international units) of vitamin D a day from food or supplements.

Why you need more as you age

This is higher than the recommendation for younger adults, reflecting the increased needs and reduced ability of older bodies to produce and absorb vitamin D.

Overall, older adults also tend to have less exposure to sunlight, which is the primary source of natural vitamin D production. Older adults may spend more time indoors and wear more clothing when outdoors.

As we age, our skin also becomes less efficient at synthesising vitamin D from sunlight.

The kidneys and the liver, which help convert vitamin D into its active form, also lose some of their efficiency with age. This makes it harder for the body to maintain adequate levels of the vitamin.

All of this combined means older adults need more vitamin D.

Deficiency is common in older adults

Despite their higher needs for vitamin D, people over 75 may not get enough of it.

Studies have shown one in five older adults in Australia have vitamin D deficiency.

In higher-latitude parts of the world, such as the United Kingdom, almost half don’t reach sufficient levels.

This increased risk of deficiency is partly due to lifestyle factors, such as spending less time outdoors and insufficient dietary intakes of vitamin D.

It’s difficult to get enough vitamin D from food alone. Oily fish, eggs and some mushrooms are good sources of vitamin D, but few other foods contain much of the vitamin. While foods can be fortified with the vitamin D (margarine, some milk and cereals), these may not be readily available or be consumed in sufficient amounts to make a difference.

In some countries such as the United States, most of the dietary vitamin D comes from fortified products. However, in Australia, dietary intakes of vitamin D are typically very low because only a few foods are fortified with it.

Why vitamin D is so important as we age

Vitamin D helps the body absorb calcium, which is essential for maintaining bone density and strength. As we age, our bones become more fragile, increasing the risk of fractures and conditions like osteoporosis.

Keeping bones healthy is crucial. Studies have shown older people hospitalised with hip fractures are 3.5 times more likely to die in the next 12 months compared to people who aren’t injured.

Older woman sits with a friend
People over 75 often have less exposure to sunlight.
Aila Images/Shutterstock

Vitamin D may also help lower the risk of respiratory infections, which can be more serious in this age group.

There is also emerging evidence for other potential benefits, including better brain health. However, this requires more research.

According to the society’s systematic review, which summarises evidence from randomised controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation in humans, there is moderate evidence to suggest vitamin D supplementation can lower the risk of premature death.

The society estimates supplements can prevent six deaths per 1,000 people. When considering the uncertainty in the available evidence, the actual number could range from as many as 11 fewer deaths to no benefit at all.

Should we get our vitamin D levels tested?

The Endocrine Society’s guidelines suggest routine blood tests to measure vitamin D levels are not necessary for most healthy people over 75.

There is no clear evidence that regular testing provides significant benefits, unless the person has a specific medical condition that affects vitamin D metabolism, such as kidney disease or certain bone disorders.

Routine testing can also be expensive and inconvenient.

In most cases, the recommended approach to over-75s is to consider a daily supplement, without the need for testing.

You can also try to boost your vitamin D by adding fortified foods to your diet, which might lower the dose you need from supplementation.

Even if you’re getting a few minutes of sunlight a day, a daily vitamin D is still recommended.

The Conversation

Elina Hypponen receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Foundation, Medical Research Future Fund, Australian Research Council, and Arthritis Australia.

Joshua Sutherland’s studentship is funded by the Australian Research Training Program Scholarship, and he volunteers on the board for the Australasian Association and Register of Practicing Nutritionists.

ref. Are you over 75? Here’s what you need to know about vitamin D – https://theconversation.com/are-you-over-75-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-vitamin-d-231820

A patchwork of spinifex: how we returned cultural burning to the Great Sandy Desert

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Braedan Taylor, Traditional Owner; Karajarri Lands Trust Association/UWA, Indigenous Knowledge

How can a desert burn? Australia’s vast deserts aren’t just sand dunes – they’re often dotted with flammable spinifex grass hummocks. When heavy rains fall, grass grows quickly before drying out. That’s how a desert can burn.

When our Karajarri and Ngurrara ancestors lived nomadic lifestyles in what’s now called the Great Sandy Desert in northwestern Australia, they lit many small fires in spinifex grass as they walked. Fires were used seasonally for ceremonies, signalling to others, flushing out animals, making travel easier (spinifex is painfully sharp), cleaning campsites, and stimulating fresh vegetation growth ready for foraging or luring game when people returned a few months later. The result was a patchwork desert.

After colonisation, this ended. Without management, the spinifex and grassy deserts began to burn in some of the largest fires in Australia.

But now the work of caring for desert country (pirra) with fire (jungku, or warlu) has begun again. We are Karajarri and Ngurrara rangers who care for 110,000 square kilometres of the Great Sandy Desert. Our techniques have changed – we now drop incendiaries from helicopters to cover more distance – but our goals are similar. Guided by our elders, we are combining traditional knowledge with modern technologies and science to refine how we manage fire in a changing world.

In research published today, we and our co-authors paired analysis of historic fire patterns with five years of fauna surveys. Put together, we found mature spinifex was important for creatures of the Great Sandy Desert – and that means we should burn small and often, like our ancestors.

Fire and sand

In the 1940s and ‘50s, the Royal Australian Air Force photographed the Great Sandy Desert from the air. These photos were taken before our people moved to settlements and pastoral stations between the 1960s and ’80s.

That means these aerial photographs capture a time when traditional burns were still happening.

Our ranger teams are studying these photographs to draw out the fire patterns produced by our ancestors.

These photographs tell a story. Our ancestors burned many small areas, creating a complicated patchwork of spinifex at different stages of regrowth after fire.

But they also left a great deal of mature spinifex – large old hummocks that hadn’t burnt for years. This patchwork of burned and unburned areas made it hard for bushfires to spread far and fast. When traditional burning practices stopped, bushfires became common.

The knowledge contained in these old photos is very valuable. The images give us clear goals for our fire management. We combine this with guidance from elders and information on fuel loads across Country gleaned from remote sensing and weather modelling, to plan our fire management.

aerial photo 1940s of great sandy desert
We could see where our ancestors burnt (white patches) in the Karajarri Indigenous Protected Area in this aerial photo from the late 1940s.
National Library of Australia, CC BY-NC-ND

What does fire mean for desert creatures?

Australian deserts are remarkably biodiverse, especially in reptiles. In a single clump of mature spinifex, you might find up to 18 different species of lizard. Then there are snakes and goannas, as well as mammals such as marsupial moles found only in the arid zone.

Spinifex hummocks are crucial to many of these species, offering shelter, food and prey. What does fire do to spinifex-dwellers?

On this topic, scientific knowledge is playing catchup with Indigenous traditional knowledge but we see value in using the scientific method – a universal language – to help us manage Country, and tell other people about what we are doing.

The past few decades have been a time of major change for the Great Sandy Desert. Cultural burns stopped, and feral animals such as camels and cats grew in number. As a result, many native animals are disappearing or already gone.

We think larger, more frequent fires play a part. Our Karajarri and Ngurrara rangers are using science to make sure our patchwork burns – known as right-way fire – are good for native animals.

Between 2018 and 2022, we surveyed reptiles and mammals from 32 sites across the Karajarri and Warlu Jilajaa Jumu (Ngurrara) Indigenous Protected Areas in the desert. We caught almost 3,800 mammals and reptiles from 77 species. Reptiles made up the lion’s share, with 66 species. We also recorded when fire had come through, and how big the burnt patches were.



The data showed reptile species care a lot about where they live. Some prefer recently burned areas, where the spinifex is gone or still very small. Others like old spinifex, huge hummocks going unburned for years. And others still liked mid-sized spinifex.

We found mammals were rare in recently burned areas and more common in mature spinifex. We also found more mammal diversity in areas with fine-scale patchworks of fires.

This shows we must keep our fires small, burning different areas at different times, and protect enough mature spinifex.

This patchwork approach will help spinifex hopping mice, desert mice, planigales, dunnarts, and dozens of small reptile species to survive. But it will also help now-rare game species, the marlu (red kangaroo in Walmajarri language) and pijarta (emu in Karajarri).

Our research tells us returning to the traditional burning techniques of our ancestors is still the right thing to do – even though the desert has changed.

Karajarri Rangers talk about the Pirra Junkgu-Warlu project.

Rare finds

Scientists have rarely surveyed the Great Sandy Desert. As a result, our surveys have turned up important findings.

The kaluta (Dasykaluta rosamondae), for instance, is a feisty little carnivorous marsupial. We found it on the Canning Stock Route, 500km further north than the distribution known to scientists.

Similarly, we found the threatened Dampierland sandslider (Lerista separanda), a vividly coloured skink, in the Karajarri Indigenous Protected Area, expanding its distribution 450km southeast. Karajarri people call sandsliders winkajurta, or “lice eaters”, because in the old days you could use them to hunt lice in your hair.

Our research gives us confidence that bringing back traditional burns helps desert creatures. We want more people to know that right-way fire is part of healthy Country, including our own mob and tourists who pass through, so we can all look after the desert.

In our work, we take our old people out onto Country to get advice on burning and their knowledge of animals. As one told us, seeing the old ways return made him “real happy [and] to come alive” – just like the desert.

We thank Karajarri and Ngurrara Traditional Owners and acknowledge past and present elders. Thanks to the many rangers and coordinators who helped in these surveys, and our partners: Environs Kimberley, Charles Darwin University, Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, and Indigenous Desert Alliance. Special thanks to Hamsini Bijlani, our project coordinator.

The Conversation

Braedan Taylor and other rangers in this project were funded by the Australian Government’s Indigenous Protected Area Program, Indigenous Ranger Program, and the National Environmental Science Program via the Threatened Species Recovery Hub; by the Western Australia State Natural Resource Management, Aboriginal Ranger Program, Lotteries West, and via in kind support from the Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions; by the Indigenous Desert Alliance/10Deserts; and by the Australian Research Council.

Jacqueline Shovellor receives funding from the same sources as the lead author.

Frankie McCarthy receives funding from the same sources as the lead author.

Sarah Legge receives funding from the Australian Research Council. The work reported here was partly funded by the National Environmental Science Program via the Threatened Species Recovery Hub.

Thomas Narda receives funding from the same sources as the lead author.

ref. A patchwork of spinifex: how we returned cultural burning to the Great Sandy Desert – https://theconversation.com/a-patchwork-of-spinifex-how-we-returned-cultural-burning-to-the-great-sandy-desert-240447

Use of AI in property valuation is on the rise – but we need greater transparency and trust

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Cheung, Senior Lecturer, Business School, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

New Zealand’s economy has been described as a “housing market with bits tacked on”. Buying and selling property is a national sport fuelled by the rising value of homes across the country.

But the wider public has little understanding of how those property valuations are created – despite their being a key factor in most banks’ decisions about how much they are willing to lend for a mortgage.

Automated valuation models (AVM) – systems enabled by artificial intelligence (AI) that crunch vast datasets to produce instant property values – have done little to improve transparency in the process.

These models started gaining traction in New Zealand in the early 2010s. The early versions used limited data sources like property sales records and council information. Today’s more advanced models include high-quality geo-spatial data from sources such as Land Information New Zealand.

AI models have improved efficiency. But the proprietary algorithms behind those AVMs can make it difficult for homeowners and industry professionals to understand how specific values are calculated.

In our ongoing research, we are developing a framework that evaluates these automated valuations. We have looked at how the figures should be interpreted and what factors might be missed by the AI models.

In a property market as geographically and culturally varied as New Zealand’s, these points are not only relevant — they are critical. The rapid integration of AI into property valuation is no longer just about innovation and speed. It is about trust, transparency and a robust framework for accountability.

AI valuations are a black box

In New Zealand, property valuation has traditionally been a labour-intensive process. Valuers would usually inspect properties, make market comparisons and apply their expert judgement to arrive at a final value estimate.

But this approach is slow, expensive and prone to human error. As demand for more efficient property valuations increased, the use of AI brought in much-needed change.

But the rise of these valuations models is not without its challenges. While AI offers speed and consistency, it also comes with a critical downside: a lack of transparency.

AVMs often operate as “black boxes”, providing little insight into the data and methodologies that drive their valuations. This raises serious concerns about the consistency, objectivity and transparency of these systems.

What exactly the algorithm is doing when an AVM estimates a home’s value is not clear. Such opaqueness has real-world consequences, perpetuating market imbalances and inequities.

Without a framework to monitor and correct these discrepancies, AI models risk distorting the property market further, especially in a country as diverse as New Zealand, where regional, cultural and historical factors significantly influence property values.

Transparency and accountability

A recent discussion forum with real estate industry insiders, law researchers and computer scientists on AI governance and property valuations highlighted the need for greater accountability when it comes to AVMs. Transparency alone is not enough. Trust must be built into the system.

This can be achieved by requiring AI developers and users to disclose data sources, algorithms and error margins behind their valuations.

Additionally, valuation models should incorporate a “confidence interval” – a range of prices that shows how much the estimated value might vary. This offers users a clearer understanding of the uncertainty inherent in each valuation.

But effective AI governance in property valuation cannot be achieved in isolation. It demands collaboration between regulators, AI developers and property professionals.

Bias correction

New Zealand urgently needs a comprehensive evaluation framework for AVMs, one that prioritises transparency, accountability and bias correction.

This is where our research comes in. We repeatedly resample small portions of the data to account for situations where property value data do not follow a normal distribution.

This process generates a confidence interval showing a range of possible values around each property estimate. Users are then able to understand the variability and reliability of the AI-generated valuations, even when the data are irregular or skewed.

Our framework goes beyond transparency. It incorporates a bias correction mechanism that detects and adjusts for constantly overvalued or undervalued estimates within AVM outputs. One example of this relates to regional disparities or undervaluation of particular property types.

By addressing these biases, we ensure valuations that are not only accountable or auditable but also fair. The goal is to avoid the long-term market distortions that unchecked AI models could create.

The rise of AI auditing

But transparency alone is not enough. The auditing of AI-generated information is becoming increasingly important.

New Zealand’s courts now require a qualified person to check information generated by AI and subsequently used in tribunal proceedings.

In much the same way financial auditors ensure accuracy in accounting, AI auditors will play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of valuations.

Based on earlier research, we are auditing the artificial valuation model estimates by comparing them with the market transacted prices of the same houses in the same period.

It is not just about trusting the algorithms but trusting the people and systems behind them.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Use of AI in property valuation is on the rise – but we need greater transparency and trust – https://theconversation.com/use-of-ai-in-property-valuation-is-on-the-rise-but-we-need-greater-transparency-and-trust-240880

It’s time to talk about how the media talks about sexual harassment

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rawan Nimri, Lecturer in Tourism and Hospitality, Griffith University

Sexual harassment is all too common in hospitality and tourism. One Australian survey found almost half of the respondents had been sexually harassed, compared to about one in three in workplaces more generally.

Hospitality and tourism are marked by intense and close interpersonal interactions and dismissive treatment by some customers, including verbal and physical aggression, bullying and sexual suggestions.

Workers who are young, female, low-paid and casual are especially vulnerable.

The scandals at the Merivale Hospitality Group and Sydney’s Swillhouse restaurant are only the most recent.

The widely held view that “the customer is always right” gives customers power. The power imbalance is magnified where tipping makes up a substantial part of workers’ earnings.

What newspapers report

To examine how sexual harassment is reported, we identified about 2,000 newspaper articles across a number of countries published between 2017 and 2022 dealing with the treatment of hotel room attendants, airline cabin crew and massage therapists. We zeroed in on 273 for closer analysis.

This was a period in which the public awareness of sexual harassment climbed with the rise of the #MeToo movement and media coverage probably peaked.

Media coverage matters because of its effect on public opinion.

Computer-assisted thematic analysis showed four different types of coverage, some overlapping, relating to legal matters, celebrities, power dynamics, and calls to action.

The language used varied according to the countries in which the newspapers were located.

In the United States and the United Kingdom, the accused were often described by their social or economic status, with cases involving famous people getting a lot of attention. In Asia and Africa, the reports focused on basic details such as the offender’s age and where they lived.

Women infantilised

But universally we found the terms used to describe victims were highly gendered and dated in ways that suggested subservience and undermined their professional skills. Cabin crew were called “air hostesses”. Room attendants were called “maids”.

Framing these professionals as modern-day servants has the potential to foster and perpetuate an expectation that sexual harassment is to be expected.

Reports involving celebrity harassers highlighted victims’ narratives with emotionally charged quotes using words such as “awful” and “terrible”. These words were perhaps intended to evoke empathy for the victims but also serve to further victimise them.

Female aggression under-reported

In all cases, women were heavily featured as victims but never as aggressors. It is a gender bias that does not match the established statistics, which show that almost one-quarter of aggressors are women.

This misrepresentation creates a skewed understanding of who commits and suffers from sexual harassment. It has the potential to discourage victims of harassment by women from coming forward.

It’s important for the tourism industry to foster secure and dignified working conditions. But it is also important that the media reflect the actual behaviour of aggressors and victims.

Done better, reporting could help

The media could play a crucial role in bringing about better policies and practices in these industries by emphasising the severe consequences of ignoring the problem and the benefits of taking proactive steps.

More respectful and accurate reporting might be able to help drive lasting change, making a positive difference in the lives of the skilled workers on whom so many of us depend.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. It’s time to talk about how the media talks about sexual harassment – https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-talk-about-how-the-media-talks-about-sexual-harassment-238771

The Texas Chain Saw Massacre and its harrowing, visceral impact has been rarely matched, 50 years on

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Godfrey, Senior Lecturer, College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Flinders University

The Texas Chain Saw Massacre is a product of a unique time in American filmmaking, when independent exploitation films were nastier than ever, and equally capable of piercing the mainstream consciousness.

Tobe Hooper’s 1974 film arrived in a recently transformed exhibition landscape. The 1967 outcry over onscreen violence in Bonnie and Clyde marked the end of Hollywood’s Motion Picture Production Code and the introduction of film ratings.

Films like Easy Rider (1969) elevated the standing of formerly disreputable exploitation fare within Hollywood. By 1973, The Exorcist was packing out cinemas and producing lines around city blocks with the promise of the most unremitting horror film yet made.

The Texas Chain Saw Massacre was shot quickly on a shoestring budget, financed in part by the newly-formed Texas Film Commission. The film assembled its cast and crew from Austin’s circles of recent college graduates and dropouts.

Its plot is straightforward enough: a group of young people are stranded when they run out of gas in rural Texas. They are terrorised and subsequently murdered by an eccentric local family, including the chainsaw wielding Leatherface – a nonverbal, childlike giant who wears masks made from the skin of his flayed victims.

We learn this family have lost their jobs at the local slaughterhouse with the introduction of bolt gun technologies, leaving them sell roadside meat made from human victims.

This detail has inspired a range of thematic interpretations for the film, encompassing commentary on class and family, gender and animal rights.

The film lays bare the horrors of meat production, inflicted on human victims. The family home is the site where these themes come into conflict.

Porn and violence on screen

The Texas Chain Saw Massacre was picked up by the Bryanston Distributing Company. In 1972, Bryanston was the distributor for the theatrical release of the hardcore pornographic film Deep Throat. The film’s success shifted popular discourse around pornography, and helped Bryanston widen the theatrical release for The Texas Chain Saw Massacre.

In subsequent years, media reported on alleged abusive on-set conditions on Deep Throat, along with claims Bryanston was connected with organised crime. Director Hooper, and many of the Chain Saw Massacre cast, alleged they never received their share of box office from the distributor.

A 1974 poster.
Ralf Liebhold/Shutterstock

The Texas Chain Saw Massacre’s proximity to Deep Throat stoked controversy, conflating concern about increasingly extreme depictions of sex and violence onscreen.

Two years earlier, young filmmaker Wes Craven had transitioned from making pornography to horror film. His low budget rape-revenge exploitation film The Last House on the Left (1972) was originally developed as a hardcore pornographic film. This approach was abandoned when it entered production.

Unlike Craven’s notorious film, The Texas Chain Saw Massacre is not overtly sexualised. While there may be a sexual undertone to Leatherface’s pursuit of Sally and her companions, it does not escalate to onscreen acts of sexual violence.

Regardless, the film drew condemnation, particularly in the United Kingdom, where it was banned, and later figured in public debates about the censorship of “video nasties” in the 1980s.

For my part, I remember encountering The Texas Chain Saw Massacre at the video rental store as a child: its title, cover and R-rating promised horrors beyond comprehension, many years before I actually saw the film itself.

Horrors implied, rather than shown

Beyond its controversies, The Texas Chain Saw Massacre played an important role in the developing field of horror film studies. It figures prominently in Robin Wood’s taxonomy of “reactionary” horror movies (which uphold traditional values) and “progressive” horror movies, which take a more ambivalent stance on the figure of the monster, challenging conservative social values. Wood counts The Texas Chain Saw Massacre in the latter category.

It is also central to Carol J. Clover’s influential codification of the “final girl” narrative trope, in which a sole young woman is able to withstand the monster’s onslaught.

Alongside Halloween (1978), The Texas Chain Saw Massacre helped steer the trajectory of American horror films in the 1980s.

Halloween is situated within the manicured surroundings of suburbia, and conveys its menace through the slick technical qualities of its gliding camera, and John Carpenter’s staccato synth score.

By contrast, The Texas Chain Saw Massacre locates its horror in the backroads and decrepit farmhouses of central Texas. The idea of Texas looms large, connoting a place of lawlessness, violence and danger.

Hooper punctuates his long shots with extreme close ups via rapid editing. The film’s most grotesque horrors are implied, rather than shown. Its most visceral impact comes from its extended chase sequences, and via its soundtrack: Sally’s piercing screams, and Leatherface’s ever-present chainsaw.

While the Texas Chain Saw Massacre spawned several sequels and influenced even more imitators over the years, from the Ramones to Wolf Creek (2005) and X (2022), it has rarely been matched in its intensity, and its harrowing, visceral impact.

The Conversation

Nicholas Godfrey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The Texas Chain Saw Massacre and its harrowing, visceral impact has been rarely matched, 50 years on – https://theconversation.com/the-texas-chain-saw-massacre-and-its-harrowing-visceral-impact-has-been-rarely-matched-50-years-on-236700

Grattan on Friday: Oil prices could be where the Middle East crisis collides with Australia’s cost-of-living crisis

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Angry, accusatory partisan exchanges over the Middle East war have dominated federal politics this week. But for most ordinary voters the issue remains “over there”.

Apart from the minorities for whom it has an immediate impact – Jewish people frightened by antisemitism, the Muslim community, those with families in Lebanon and elsewhere – it’s a tragedy without tangible relevance to their day-to-day lives.

On Thursday however, Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned the foreign crisis could feed directly into the domestic cost-of-living crisis, via the price of oil.

Midway through this week, oil was trading 11% lower than it was a year ago, but 7% higher than a week-and-a-half ago, Chalmers told a news conference.

Treasury estimates that if prices were 10% higher for an entire year, this would reduce Australia’s GDP by 0.1% and increase the consumer price index by 0.4 percentage points.

Nothing is certain about the coming months but the potential implications are obvious. Consumers would feel the effects at the petrol pump of the higher oil prices.

The Reserve Bank will also be watching the possible trajectory of oil prices, together with all the other indicators relevant to its decisions on interest rates. This is against the background of the government’s desperation for a rate cut (or two) before the election.

Although an increase in fuel prices (hitting businesses as well as families) would not be the government’s fault, it would be blamed.

According to Labor, at present there’s a disconnect between, on the one hand, the partisan political heat the Middle East war is generating and, on the other, the public’s lack of engagement with the issue.

Voters not concentraing on the Middle East

Labor sources say focus group research this week, done with swinging voters, found most people aren’t closely following Middle East events.

Beyond that, they are generally satisfied with the government’s stand and don’t think the crisis is distracting it from the cost of living (which is separate from how they think the government is handling the cost of living).

This accords with this week’s Essential poll, in which 56% said they were satisfied with the government’s response on the Israel-Gaza war. Another 30% thought the government had been too supportive of Israel; 14% thought it had been too harsh on Israel.

Except among some of those directly invested, the Middle East crisis is not likely to be a vote changer.

In the domestic political battle, Dutton is trying to use the conflict to paint Albanese as weak. That’s a long bow on the issue itself, although more generally the prime minister and his government have come to be seen as having lost their way.

While Dutton is trying to define Albanese negatively, Albanese is attempting to make Dutton a bigger target.

NBN sale a distraction

Thus on Wednesday the prime minister, shortly before he jumped on his plane to attend the ASEAN-Australia summit in Laos, personally introduced legislation that would ensure the NBN remained in public hands.

If the Coalition didn’t vote for the bill, that would show it would sell the NBN, Labor claimed. It was a crude attempt at scare politics, easily seen through. The Coalition is not suggesting it would sell the NBN and if it did, would most people care? Anyway, originally Labor planned for the NBN to be privatised. Dutton ridiculed the tactic.

As we look to election year, the 2025 parliamentary sitting calendar came out this week. It has a fortnight sitting in February and pencils in a budget for March 25, which would set up a May poll. Of course this doesn’t rule out an earlier (March) election although Albanese has said more than once he plans a pre-election budget.

Regardless, we are already in the election campaign. At caucus on Tuesday Albanese was, for the second time recently, talking about the second term agenda.

Announcements like confetti

Announcements are raining down like confetti especially related to cost-of-living issues. Supermarkets are being heavily targeted. Launching his merger reform legislation on Thursday, Chalmers said every supermarket merger would be screened, regardless of whether it fell under the new arrangements.

Present polls are showing the most likely election result, to be delivered by sour voters, is a hung parliament with a minority Labor government.

Albanese told caucus he was focused on winning majority government. Dutton knows that if the Coalition can’t win, the more crossbenchers it can force Labor to need to rely on, the more unstable a second-term Labor government would be.

Both sides have a great deal of bedding-down to do before the actual campaign.

Key items on Labor’s legislative agenda aren’t just not introduced, they are unseen – for instance, on gambling advertising, social media restrictions for young people, electoral funding.

Major bills are stuck in the parliament – notably on housing, where the Greens may eventually do a deal but are stringing out the pain.

On the other side, the Coalition has released minimal policy. On its controversial nuclear power plan, it has put out minimal details, in particular refusing to produce costings. It can’t hold back everything until the last moment.

Will the campaign even matter?

When the formal campaign comes, how much will it matter?

There is the old saying “you can’t fatten the pig on market day”. In other words, the election result may be decided well before the actual campaign.

What do the last three elections (2016, 2019, 2022) tell us about the importance of the formal campaign? In each case, the result was narrow, a matter of a handful of seats.

In 2022, there was probably nothing Morrison could have done in the last weeks to salvage the situation – to use another farm metaphor, his goose was cooked. In the event, he ran a bad campaign.

In 2016 prime minister Malcolm Turnbull just scraped home; Turnbull’s flawed campaigning maximised the number of seats he lost.

In 2019, when it seemed Bill Shorten was almost certain to take Labor to victory, its defeat may have been sealed in the campaign itself, although its heavy policy load always put it in a precarious situation.

In 2022 Albanese was judged a poor campaigner. Aware of this, Labor strategists will be doing everything to make sure he is fully prepared for “gotcha” questions (on which he faltered last time) and the other hazards that can arise spontaneously.

Dutton’s forte is negativity, his natural style is the attack. But in those final weeks, more will be needed.

One challenge in leaving policy releases late is that holes can slip through, inviting slip ups.

Dutton has far from established himself as a rounded alternative prime minister. Indeed his current approach on the Middle East, completely lacking nuance, raises questions about how he would handle the complexities of foreign policy generally. It has not been reassuring.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Grattan on Friday: Oil prices could be where the Middle East crisis collides with Australia’s cost-of-living crisis – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-oil-prices-could-be-where-the-middle-east-crisis-collides-with-australias-cost-of-living-crisis-241002

There’s a new school funding bill in parliament. Will this end the funding wars?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew P. Sinclair, Lecturer and Researcher of Education Policy, School of Education, Curtin University

On Thursday, federal Education Minister Jason Clare introduced a school funding bill to parliament.

The bill aims to set a new “floor” for how much the federal government contributes towards public school funding in Australia.

It would mean the Commonwealth has to contribute at least 20% of the schooling resource standard (how much funding a school needs to meet students’ educational needs) for public schools each year in all states and territories from 2025.

Clare argues it will provide “certainty” to schools, but it also comes in the middle of a standoff between the federal government and some states over school funding policy.

What’s in the bill?

The bill proposes to change the current arrangement, under which the Commonwealth contributes 20% to the schooling resource standard of public schools. As the government explains:

This means the 20 per cent will become the minimum, not the maximum, the Commonwealth contributes to public schools.

The Albanese government says the bill will increase “transparency and accountability” and ensure funding cannot go backwards.

But it cannot be certain of parliamentary support – Greens and independent senators are among those pushing for the government to provide more funding for public schools than is currently on the table.

A school student completes an activity on a tablet.
The bill will remove a 20% cap on federal funding for public schools.
Bianca De Marchi/AAP, CC BY

The bigger picture

The bill also comes as the federal government is still trying to sign off new deals with some of the states and territories about their public school funding for next year.

The current agreements will run out at the end of the year. While the new proposed arrangements would increase the federal contribution, it’s not by as much as some states want.

So far, Clare has made agreements with Western Australia and Tasmania to increase the federal contribution from 20% to 22.5%. For the Northern Territory it will increase funding to a 40% contribution by 2029.

So far, it has not signed deals with New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, which are pushing for a federal contribution of 25%.

The Australian Capital Territory is also yet to sign, despite its public schools receiving at least 100% of the schooling resource standard (via both federal and its own funds) for several years now.

Clare set a deadline of September 30 for the holdout states to sign on for the 2.5% funding boost, or risk losing an extra A$16 billion in funding. But that has passed without any compromise from either side.

Progress and politics

At the very least, the introduction of the bill to federal parliament is symbolically significant, particularly in light of the Commonwealth’s willingness to increase its contribution to the school resource standard of public schools.

But politics is never far away in school funding policy. Critics could argue the bill is more of a box-ticking exercise, rather than substantive reform. Indeed, the change in wording to a 20% minimum was inevitable given the specifics of the funding agreements already signed with Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.

Critics might also point out national school funding policy is currently a bit of a mess, with four of the five most populous Australian states ignoring the government’s new funding deal. And they could remind us this agreement has already been delayed by a year. The previous one expired at the end of 2023 and was extended for 12 months by the Albanese government.

What happens to schools next year?

The bill does nothing to bring the holdout states any closer to signing on to the new funding agreement.

But this does not mean the federal government will withdraw its funding when school starts next year. Instead, the current funding arrangements will continue for another 12 months. This is why Clare says $16 billion in “additional investment” is on the table for public schools.

With a federal election due next year, it is even possible there will be no resolution before Australians go to the polls. This continues the fight over the schooling resource standard funding for public schools, which has has been ongoing since the so-called Gonski Review was made public in 2012.

The Conversation

Matthew P. Sinclair does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. There’s a new school funding bill in parliament. Will this end the funding wars? – https://theconversation.com/theres-a-new-school-funding-bill-in-parliament-will-this-end-the-funding-wars-240994

China removes block on Australian lobster, in last big bilateral trade breakthrough

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

China has removed the last significant trade barrier it imposed on Australia, with a timetable to resume full lobster imports by the end of the year.

Anthony Albanese announced the breakthrough after a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Vientiane, where the prime minister is attending the ASEAN-Australia summit.

Albanese said the end of the barrier would be in time for the Chinese New Year. This would be welcomed by those in the lobster trade in places including Geraldton, Western Australia, and in South Australia and Tasmania, he said.

The lobster decision means the Chinese over the last two years have removed trade barriers of nearly $20 billion slapped on Australia during the time of the former government when relations between the two countries went into a deep freeze. This followed various Australian decisions, including the call for an inquiry into the origins of COVID.

Remaining impediments are now worth less than $500 million, with two red meat establishments still affected.

The lobster trade was worth more than $700 million in 2019.

More than 3000 people are employed in the lobster industry, 2000 of them in WA.

“The reinstatement in normalised trade for all commodities is front and centre of the Government’s engagement strategy with China,” Albanese said.

“It is in the interests of both our countries to continue this path of stabilising our relationship. A resumption in trade for all Australian commodities is an important part of this process.”

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. China removes block on Australian lobster, in last big bilateral trade breakthrough – https://theconversation.com/china-removes-block-on-australian-lobster-in-last-big-bilateral-trade-breakthrough-241012

Australia’s child support system can put single mothers at risk of poverty and financial abuse

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kay Cook, Professor and Research Director, School of Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities, Swinburne University of Technology

KieferPix/Shutterstock

Australia’s child support system can not only increase women’s poverty, but can actually facilitate financial abuse, according to our recent research.

Child support is an important system that aims to share the financial burden of raising children between separated parents.

But there are some serious problems with the way it operates, putting already vulnerable women further at risk.

Drawing on the experiences of 675 single mothers, we sought to examine women’s experience with the child support system from start to finish.

Our research suggests four key changes could improve both women’s safety and financial wellbeing.

How does child support work?

Where deemed necessary, child support arrangements typically require one separated parent to make payments to the other, on a regular basis.

How much is paid and how it is collected can vary in different circumstances.

The amount agreed to be paid in child support can take in a range of factors, such as the cost of childcare.
AKIRA_PHOTO/Shutterstock

In some families, a child support recipient’s income will be too high to receive the family tax benefit – a key payment that assists with the costs of raising children.

In this instance, a family can decide for itself how much will be paid, to whom, and how.

This is called self management, but it is very difficult to navigate when abuse is present in a relationship.

For families that do collect the family tax benefit, separated parents can use Services Australia to calculate the amount that will be paid.

Services Australia will consider factors including what it costs to care for and educate a child, as well as the difference in income between the two parents.

Once the amount has been calculated, separated parents can transfer payments privately between themselves, an approach called “private collect”.

Alternatively, this group can also use a service called “agency collect” to manage the transfer. Here, Services Australia collects the funds from the paying parent, then gives it to the agreed recipient.

For parents using agency collect, payments can also be “garnisheed” – deducted from a paying parent’s salary.

The system is failing the most vulnerable

Government reports reveal that across the agency collect system, a staggering $1.7 billion is owed to a third of single-parent households, representing 475,000 children.

The vast majority of this money is owed to women, two-thirds of whom have children in their care 86% or more of the time.

The vast majority of single parents are single mothers.
FotoDuets/Shutterstock

Losing out on payments

Across the child support system, 28% of paying parents fail to submit tax returns on time, reducing the accuracy of assessments.

Centrelink’s Family Tax Benefit A (the first part of a two-part payment) is linked to child support, with every dollar of child support above a certain threshold reducing this payment by 50 cents.

Concerningly, while reports indicate that 60% of single mothers receiving income support have experienced violence prior to separation, less than 15% receive exemptions from having to seek child support on the basis of this violence.

By not applying for either child support or an exemption, single mothers could lose a significant portion of their Family Tax Benefit A payments.

These sobering statistics are only part of the picture. Others remain invisible.

There are another 500,000 or so children in the private collect system. Many of their situations are a mystery. Services Australia doesn’t know how much those women and children are owed, as they don’t trace this amount and assume that payments are fully compliant.

What we uncovered

Our mixed methods survey of 675 single mothers asked women about their experiences in the child support system from start to finish.

We asked women how they made various decisions about child support, such as when to apply for it and when to change how it is collected and calculated.

Many women avoid chasing what’s owed to them for fear of retaliation from an ex-partner.
rigsbyphoto/Shutterstock

78% of women reported experiencing some form of violence at the time of separation.

But the research also showed how the nature of this abuse can change post-separation, when financial abuse becomes the primary mechanism.

Just over half the women reported currently experiencing either emotional or psychological abuse, and 60% financial abuse.

Women shared they were often fearful of retaliation from their ex-partner if they applied or changed child support payment arrangements.

I was advised not to apply at the time because of the family violence and he had made threats to kill me so [it] was recommended I didn’t give him any reason to act on this so I went without child support for some period of time.

Others had to ask for an exemption to apply.

A Centrelink social worker changed my son’s father to unknown so I wouldn’t be murdered.

The results show how the current system’s logic can force women to risk their financial welfare to ensure their own safety.

I withdrew my application to avoid further conflict by telling CSA [Child Support Agency] there was a private agreement but there isn’t and he doesn’t pay anything.

Often, women are paying back debts to Centrelink due to retrospective changes in their ex-partner’s income or level of care, at the same time they themselves are owed thousands of dollars in child support arrears.

I’ve at times been living on as little at $72 a week of FTB [Family Tax Benefit] as my sole income to feed, house, clothe and educate myself and two children. I don’t understand how that is possible.

How could we fix it?

Based on our findings, our report makes four recommendations that could bring about meaningful improvements, give women choices to suit their family, and create a system that is safe.

  1. De-link family payments from child support.

  2. Co-design family violence processes in the child support system.

  3. Move all payment collections back to being handled by the tax office.

  4. Make all payment debts owed to and enforced by the Commonwealth.

Any meaningful solution to this problem will need to include the voices of victim survivors, advocates, researchers and social support organisations to co-design an effective system.


The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance of Terese Edwards, chief executive of Single Mother Families Australia (SMFA), in the preparation of the report.

Terese and SMFA provided in-kind support in the form of survey design feedback and recruitment assistance. Terese also contributed to writing the report.

Kay Cook receives funding from the Australian Research Council in the form of a Discovery Project grant. She is Secretary of The Australian Sociological Association (TASA) and a Member of the federal Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee. She is the PhD supervisor of Terese Edwards, CEO of Single Mother Families Australia.

Adrienne Byrt is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow on a Discovery Project funded by the Australian Research Council.

Ashlea Coen’s research assistant position for this research was funded by Swinburne University of Technology.

Marg Rogers received funding from the Commonwealth-funded Manna Institute for her Postdoctoral Fellowship in 2022-24.

ref. Australia’s child support system can put single mothers at risk of poverty and financial abuse – https://theconversation.com/australias-child-support-system-can-put-single-mothers-at-risk-of-poverty-and-financial-abuse-240917

Space isn’t all about the ‘race’ – rival superpowers must work together for a better future

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Art Cotterell, Research Associate, School of Regulation and Global Governance, Australian National University

Artist’s concept of the docked Apollo and Soyuz in 1975. David Meltzer/NASA

In recent years, a new “space race” has intensified between the United States and China. At a campaign rally last weekend, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump invoked this rivalry when declaring the US will “lead the world in space”, echoing Democratic counterpart Vice President Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, the president of China, Xi Jinping, has said becoming “a space power is our eternal dream”.

But what is this latest “race” about, and are there pathways to common ground? History suggests these do exist. As a space governance specialist, I argue our future depends on it.

The ‘race’ to the Moon

Lunar missions have become synonymous with a “space race”. During the Cold War, the US and Soviet Union’s competition to achieve that first “one small step” on the Moon was a symbolic and strategic quest for political, technological, military and ideological dominance on Earth.

Geopolitical tensions are again moving off-Earth. The US and China are leading separate missions which aim to return humans to the Moon. One goal is to further scientific research. But space mining and economic expansionism are also driving these efforts.

This new “race” may give rise to new conflicts, especially over prime landing sites and valuable and scarce resources speculated to be located on the lunar south pole.

Mining water ice could produce oxygen, drinking water and rocket fuel – all vital for sustaining lunar exploration and beyond. The Moon may also contain rare earth metals used in everyday electronics, and a rare non-radioactive isotope, helium-3, for nuclear power.

Space mining could lead to a concerning “lunar gold rush” or trade war with nations and private actors in space. Resources mined off-Earth are predicted to be worth trillions of dollars.

The US has a longer history of demonstrated space-faring capabilities, investments and partnerships. Yet China is catching up. While the US made its first uncrewed landing on the lunar south pole this year, China has made several landings. In June this year, China’s Chang’e 6 mission returned with the first rock and soil samples from this sought-after region of the Moon.

A group of people in red, black and blue outfits smile for the camera.
International Space Station’s Expedition 72 crew pose for a portrait on September 29 2024. For the past two decades, the ISS has been a great example of space collaboration.
NASA Johnson

How are nations working together on space?

Both superpowers have invited other nations to join them in realising their lunar visions. This week the Dominican Republic became the 44th signatory to the US-led NASA Artemis Accords.

Thirteen other nations are participating in the China-led International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) in collaboration with Russia. Senegal joined last month.

With no membership overlap between the two initiatives, new “space blocs” are emerging, reflective of global power dynamics.

The Artemis Accords and ILRS are currently not legally binding, but they will be influential in shaping space governance in the 21st century. This is because treaty-making in the United Nations’ Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS, established in 1959) hasn’t kept pace with the latest developments and actors in space.

Nor has space governance adequately engaged with growing ethical questions, including on space colonisation and light pollution caused by satellites.

We’re at a critical juncture. It’s important the emergence of these new “space blocs” doesn’t escalate into a contest over whose space governance approach prevails. Not only could this increase the risk of conflict on the lunar surface itself, but it could even fuel geopolitical instability and military competition on Earth.

History shows we can work together

Space has fostered cooperation even between superpower rivals during tense geopolitical times. During the Cold War, the US and Soviet Union cooperated on space governance, laws, science and technologies. This built mutual trust and eased tensions.

Within COPUOS, nations worked together to agree on what became the first of multiple foundational space law treaties, the Outer Space Treaty in 1967. It prohibits placing nuclear weapons in space and national appropriation claims over celestial bodies like the Moon.

A joint Moon landing never eventuated. But in 1975, the Apollo and Soyuz spacecrafts docked while in orbit. This marked the first international human spaceflight partnership, a historic feat made possible thanks to technical cooperation and diplomacy. COPUOS heralded this as inspiring ongoing cooperation.

More recently, NASA’s International Space Station (ISS) has been an orbiting testament to coexistence. Astronauts from the US, Russia and other partners have conducted over 3,000 experiments in microgravity.

At the recent UN Summit of the Future, video messages from the ISS and China’s Tiangong space station astronauts reaffirmed the importance of international cooperation and the peaceful uses of space.

From rhetoric to practice

Humanity has much to lose if global superpowers don’t cooperate on space governance. There is a real and growing risk of exporting and exacerbating our earthly conflicts in space. This will invariably increase tensions on Earth.

The US and China need to explore opportunities to open dialogue between the Artemis Accords and ILRS. There are some similarities in their separate planned activities, governing principles and guidelines already.

To make this happen, the US will need to revisit the 2011 Wolf Amendment, a law that restricts NASA from using its funding to cooperate with China, without congressional approval. But China has no equivalent and recently expressed its willingness to cooperate, including sharing its rock and soil samples.

Sharing scientific information may help find initial common ground before further discussions on space governance. This could even move towards agreeing on landing sites or a lunar time zone. If a rescue mission is ever necessary on the Moon, having some compatible technology through interoperability would make it much easier.

The US and China do actively engage in COPUOS, including in the working group on space resources. Yet treaty-making is often slow moving. This means greater opportunities for communication, consistency and certainty on space governance are imperative. This could even support multilateral efforts.

Perhaps a joint lunar research mission between the US and China – in the spirit of the Apollo-Soyuz docking – can still happen in the future.

In the meantime, the world needs to see space not only in terms of a “race”. It’s also an opportunity to improve international relations, benefiting our future humanity on Earth and, one day, beyond.

The Conversation

Art Cotterell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Space isn’t all about the ‘race’ – rival superpowers must work together for a better future – https://theconversation.com/space-isnt-all-about-the-race-rival-superpowers-must-work-together-for-a-better-future-240543

Is TikTok right? Can adding a teaspoon of cinnamon to your coffee help you burn fat?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia

Evannovostro/Shutterstock

Cinnamon has been long used around the world in both sweet and savoury dishes and drinks.

But a new TikTok trend claims adding a teaspoon of cinnamon to your daily coffee (and some cocoa to make it more palatable) for one week can help you burn fat. Is there any truth to this?

Not all cinnamon is the same

There are two types of cinnamon, both of which come from grinding the bark of the cinnamomum tree and may include several naturally occurring active ingredients.

Cassia cinnamon is the most common type available in grocery stores. It has a bitter taste and contains higher levels of one of the active ingredient cinnamaldehyde, a compound that gives cinnamon its flavour and odour. About 95% of cassia cinnamon is cinnamaldehyde.

The other is Ceylon cinnamon, which tastes sweeter. It contains about 50-60% cinnamaldehyde.

Does cinnamon burn fat? What does the research say?

A review of 35 studies examined whether consuming cinnamon could affect waist circumference, which is linked to increased body fat levels. It found cinnamon doses below 1.5 grams per day (around half a teaspoon) decreased waist circumference by 1.68cm. However, consuming more than 1.5g/day did not have a significant effect.

A meta-analysis of 21 clinical trials with 1,480 total participants found cinnamon also reduced body mass index (BMI) by 0.40kg/m² and body weight by 0.92kg. But it did not change the participants’ composition of fat or lean mass.

Another umbrella review, which included all the meta-analyses, found a small effect of cinnamon on weight loss. Participants lost an average of 0.67kg and reduced their BMI by 0.45kg/m².

Spoon of cinnamon
The effect appears small.
Radu Sebastian/Shutterstock

So overall, the weight loss we see from these high-quality studies is very small, ranging anywhere from two to six months and mostly with no change in body composition.

The studies included people with different diseases, and most were from the Middle East and/or the Indian subcontinent. So we can’t be certain we would see this effect in people with other health profiles and in other countries. They were also conducted over different lengths of time from two to six months.

The supplements were different, depending on the study. Some had the active ingredient extracted from cinnamon, others used cinnamon powder. Doses varied from 0.36g to 10g per day.

They also used the two different types of cinnamon – but none of the studies used cinnamon from the grocery store.

How could cinnamon result in small amounts of weight loss?

There are several possible mechanisms.

It appears to allow blood glucose (sugar) to enter the body’s cells more quickly. This lowers blood glucose levels and can make insulin work more effectively.

It also seems to improve the way we break down fat when we need it for energy.

Finally, it may make us feel fuller for longer by slowing down how quickly the food is released from our stomach into the small intestine.

What are the risks?

Cinnamon is generally regarded as safe when used as a spice in cooking and food.

However, in recent months the United States and Australia have issued health alerts about the level of lead and other heavy metals in some cinnamon preparations.

Lead enters as a contaminant during growth (from the environment) and in harvesting. In some cases, it has been suggested there may have been intentional contamination.

Some people can have side effects from cinnamon, including gastrointestinal pain and allergic reactions.

One of the active ingredients, coumarin, can be toxic for some people’s livers. This has prompted the European Food Authority to set a limit of 0.1mg/kg of body weight.

Cassia cinnamon contains up to 1% of coumarin, and the Ceylon variety contains much less, 0.004%. So for people weighing above 60kg, 2 teaspoons (6g) of cassia cinnamon would bring them over the safe limit.

What about the coffee and cocoa?

Many people may think coffee can also help us lose weight. However there isn’t good evidence to support this yet.

An observational study found drinking one cup of regular coffee was linked to a reduction in weight that is gained over four years, but by a very small amount: an average of 0.12kg.

Good-quality cocoa and dark chocolate have also been shown to reduce weight. But again, the weight loss was small (between 0.2 and 0.4kg) and only after consuming it for four to eight weeks.

So what does this all mean?

Using cinnamon may have a very small effect on weight, but it’s unlikely to deliver meaningful weight loss without other lifestyle adjustments.

We also need to remember these trials used products that differ from the cinnamon we buy in the shops. How we store and how long we keep cinnamon might also impact or degrade the active ingredients.

And consuming more isn’t going to provide additional benefit. In fact, it could increase your risk of side effects.

So if you enjoy the taste of cinnamon in your coffee, continue to add it, but given its strong taste, you’re likely to only want to add a little.

And no matter how much we’d like this to be true, we certainly won’t gain any fat-loss benefits by consuming cinnamon on doughnuts or in buns, due to their high kilojoule count.

If you want to lose weight, there are evidence-backed approaches that won’t spoil your morning coffee.

The Conversation

Evangeline Mantzioris is affiliated with Alliance for Research in Nutrition, Exercise and Activity (ARENA) at the University of South Australia. Evangeline Mantzioris has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, and has been appointed to the National Health and Medical Research Council Dietary Guideline Expert Committee.

ref. Is TikTok right? Can adding a teaspoon of cinnamon to your coffee help you burn fat? – https://theconversation.com/is-tiktok-right-can-adding-a-teaspoon-of-cinnamon-to-your-coffee-help-you-burn-fat-240683

International student caps are set to pass parliament, ushering in a new era of bureaucratic control

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National University

The federal government’s controversial plan to limit international student numbers is now almost certain to win parliamentary approval. But it looks like there will be some changes to the original bill introduced in May.

A Senate committee, which has a Labor majority, has recommended the bill be passed with amendments. The government is expected to accept the committee’s suggestions.

What did the committee find and what does this mean for caps on international student numbers?

Clashing views in parliament

In the inquiry report, Coalition senators criticised the government’s handling of international education. But they continued to support the idea of putting a limit on international students.

The Greens’ dissenting report completely rejected the idea of caps. The Greens don’t have the Senate numbers to block them, but they may find common ground with the Coalition on some amendments to influence the final outcome.

Changes to caps on courses

The government’s original legislation would let the minister set international student caps by education provider, location and course.

Caps by provider and location are meant to reduce pressure on accommodation and other services, especially in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. This is a key goal of the bill and other recent changes to international student policy.

But course-level enrolment caps are not necessary to achieve this.

As the inquiry report notes, most international students do not stay in Australia permanently. So they should be allowed to choose courses based on their own interests and job opportunities in their home countries.

The report also notes significant administrative issues involved with setting and monitoring caps for the more than 25,000 courses on offer to international students.

But the report does not take these points to the logical conclusion of recommending no caps on courses. Instead, it proposes no course caps for universities or TAFEs. Non-university higher education providers and non-TAFE vocational education providers could still be subject to course-level caps.

After the report was released, Education Minister Jason Clare cited advice about some vocational providers offering courses that “don’t give [students] a real qualification”.

Coalition senators may seek the full removal of course caps from the bill – in the Senate report, they criticise what they call the “appalling treatment of many private higher education and [vocational education and training] providers”. With support from the Greens, course caps could be stopped.

A new power to exempt some categories of students

The government has flagged it wants to exempt students from the Pacific or Timor-Leste and some students on government scholarships from the new cap regime.

That would require amendments to the original bill, which the Senate inquiry also recommends. This change is unlikely to face any Senate obstacles.

An earlier date for announcing caps

The bill requires caps to be announced by September 1 in the year before the caps apply, except for this year when the deadline is December 31.

This date was criticised because international students receive offers before September. Education providers need to know their caps before they start making offers.

The Senate report recommends a July 1 announcement instead.

Huge powers for the minister

As drafted, the bill gives the minister extraordinary personal power to set international student caps. It sets no limit on the reasons for setting caps. It requires no consultation prior to setting caps, other than the minister for education consulting the minister for skills.

The Senate report suggests improvements to this process. The education minister would also need to consult the immigration minister and the regulators for vocational education and higher education.

The report also says education providers should be consulted on the initial setting of enrolment limits each year. With around 1,500 providers registered to offer courses to international students, this consultation may need to be with their representative groups.

More scrutiny for the caps?

The bill has a dual system for setting caps. One of these is via a “legislative instrument”, which the minister makes. This can be disallowed by either house of parliament and is the only limit on the minister’s power.

But the bill also allows the minister to bypass the parliament with a “notice” to education providers. This has the same practical effect as the legislative instrument.

The bill’s explanatory memorandum (the document to help readers understand legislation), offers a benign explanation for this. It says the minister will only exercise the power of using a notice in limited circumstances. Its examples include when the education provider has supplied additional student accommodation, or needs to expand to take students from other providers that have gone out of business.

Nothing in the bill, however, limits the use of capping by notice.

In a submission to the inquiry, I recommended requiring parliamentary scrutiny of the way caps are set. The legislative instrument would set out rules and formulas for calculating the cap. The notice to education providers would have to apply these rules and formulas to their specific circumstances.

The Senate committee majority, however, recommended a much weaker form of scrutiny. It suggested replacing the notice with a “notifiable instrument”. This would ensure the provider’s cap was publicly available. The notices, by contrast, only go to to the affected education provider, the Department of Education, and the relevant regulator.

A notifiable instrument would allow more public scrutiny of the minister’s decisions, for people who keep an eye on the government’s legislation website. But it falls well short of a system in which parliament is always directly notified of caps and given the power to intervene.

A turning point

The Senate inquiry partly answers some criticisms or weaknesses of the bill. It’s likely the bill will next be debated when parliament sits in November.

But whatever views people hold on capping international students – and with the student visa holder population nearing 700,000 there is a case for moderation – we are witnessing a major turning point in higher education.

This bill, in combination with planned controls on domestic student enrolments, signals the demise of student choice and university autonomy. A new era of bureaucratic control from Canberra is arriving.

Andrew Norton is employed by the Australian National University, which has announced major job cuts that it partly blames on the capping of international student enrolments.

ref. International student caps are set to pass parliament, ushering in a new era of bureaucratic control – https://theconversation.com/international-student-caps-are-set-to-pass-parliament-ushering-in-a-new-era-of-bureaucratic-control-240988

Peter Weir’s The Cars That Ate Paris – a driving force in Ozploitation filmmaking

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark David Ryan, Professor, Film, Screen, Animation, Queensland University of Technology

IMDB

It has been 50 years since the cinema release of Peter Weir’s iconic, offbeat, cult classic The Cars That Ate Paris. The film seared the image of a silver Volkswagen Beetle weaponised with deadly spikes into the national imagination. It also helped shape the tropes of Ozploitation filmmaking within the history of Australian cinema.

Main character Arthur Waldo (Terry Camilleri) and his older brother drive through idyllic countryside, filmed like a tourism commercial. But when a sign diverts them off the highway towards the fictitious town of Paris, it soon becomes clear the place survives on a “crash economy”.

Older men in the community orchestrate car crashes on the road into Paris and survivors are taken to a hospital where a psychopathic doctor experiments on them. The townsfolk trade luggage from the cars for food and clothing and wrecks are salvaged by youths who terrorise the community.

The mayor of Paris (John Meillon) pities Arthur and adopts him into his family. Arthur is eventually forced to work as the town’s sole parking inspector, gripped by a phobia of driving, having caused more than one death from behind the wheel.

A uniquely Australian genre

Cars was Australia’s first “car crash” film. These were Ozploitation films, which privileged “low” culture and sensationalist sex, violence, nudity or gore to shock viewers after the R rating was introduced in 1971.

The Mad Max franchise later popularised the car-crash trope to create what has been regarded as a uniquely Australian film genre in the 1970s and 1980s. Movies in this canon included Chain Reaction (1980), Dead End Drive-In (1986) and Road Games (1981).

Both The Cars That Ate Paris and Weir’s next feature – Picnic at Hanging Rock (1975), which would catapult him onto the global stage – marked a critical turning point for Australian cinema. They generated increased interest from distributors and film buyers in international markets and established the Australian Gothic style.

Cars is one of our most iconic Australian horror movies, but it is paradoxically a movie most Australians have never seen.

‘No one leaves Paris … no one.’

The slow burn of success

Cars was Weir’s second feature film and a far more polished effort than his first experimental horror. Homesdale (1971) is about the owners of a guesthouse performing hideous social experiments on characters already suffering trauma.

Cars was the first Australian movie to screen at France’s prestigious Cannes Film Festival. It marked a significant achievement for a local movie during the rebirth of the local movie industry, after the production of fiction movies had collapsed during the 1950s.

To market the film, Car’s producers drove the spiked Volkswagen around Cannes’ streets in an ingenious attempt to hype its screening during a packed festival schedule. The film was well received, but as critic David Stratton observed, it proved just too different from anything Australian filmmakers had made before, and indeed to anything being made anywhere.

The film failed to secure a distributor or reach large audiences at home or abroad – though it was released several years later in North America as The Cars That Eat People.

A cult following

A key reason for the movie’s slow reception was also why it became a cult classic: it defies filmic categories. It was originally promoted as a horror movie before being marketed as an art film. This was partly because the movie’s tone shifts jarringly from parody and black comedy to social commentary, before settling on all-out horror.

film poster shows car with spikes running over person and title: the cars that eat people
The film was later released with a different title.
IMDB

The story is mostly a dark comment on authority, normality and car culture, which descends into schlock violence in the final act. After the older patriarchy punishes youths for terrorising the streets, a gang of monstrous cars – including the iconic porcupine VW beetle – idle on a darkened hill to the sound of animal noises. The killer cars attack the town, leading to murder, mayhem and a violent battle.

Authur, drawn into the fight, kills one of the youths by repeatedly reversing over him. But rather than express shock or regret, he delights at being cured of his phobia. Arthur drives out of town joyously as survivors of the carnage flee the burning town.

Some things don’t change

The movie’s longevity comes from how it tackles social issues at the heart of the national character. Onscreen we see a dark critique of our obsession with cars and the “hoon culture” that results in tragic speeding or drink-driving-related deaths every year.

The movie also examines tensions between generations. The older, conservative generation arranges car crashes before hypocritically attending church services and preaching justice. The younger hoons bristle at being controlled in a town where they see no future.

One of the movie’s lasting thematic contributions to Ozploitation film is Weir’s depiction of the economic fragility and inopportunity of rural economies that lead to absurdly immoral activities.

More recently, the 2010 film The Clinic adapted this premise by portraying the small town of Montgomery as reliant on an illegal international adoption ring. Townsfolk steal babies and force their mothers to fight to the death in an abandoned abattoir while affluent foreign couples watch on monitors to determine which baby they will adopt.

The Clinic is a bleak, absurd example. But it shows how The Cars That Ate Paris continues to influence Australian cinema in profound and surprising ways.

The Conversation

Mark David Ryan has received funding from the Australian Film Institute Research Collection (AFIRC) fellowship and is a co-founding member of the Streaming Industries and Genres Network (SIGN).

ref. Peter Weir’s The Cars That Ate Paris – a driving force in Ozploitation filmmaking – https://theconversation.com/peter-weirs-the-cars-that-ate-paris-a-driving-force-in-ozploitation-filmmaking-237233

Huge waves in the atmosphere dump extreme rain on northern Australia

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fadhlil Rizki Muhammad, Graduate Researcher, The University of Melbourne

Bureau of Meteorology via AAP

In 2023, almost a year’s worth of rain fell over ten days in parts of northwestern Australia, leading to catastrophic flooding in the town of Fitzroy Crossing and surrounds. The rainfall was linked to a tropical cyclone, but there were also lesser-known forces at work: huge, planet-scale oscillations called atmospheric waves which bring heavy rain to northern Australia.

While climate drivers such as El Niño and La Niña are becoming more familiar to many Australians, fewer understand the significant role played by atmospheric waves, which are like vast musical notes resonating around the globe. These waves can greatly influence rainfall and extreme weather events in Australia – and we don’t know yet whether they could grow more intense as the world warms.

In our latest research, we discovered how these waves affect Australia’s rainfall, and how they can help us make better weather forecasts. The research is published in the Journal of Climate.

What are atmospheric waves?

You can think of atmospheric waves as huge musical notes that travel through the atmosphere around the equator. Just like a musical note, an atmospheric wave has a frequency (a pitch, or how often it oscillates) and an amplitude (a volume or intensity).

Atmospheric waves can interact with each other to create complex melodies and harmonies in the atmosphere. They affect many aspects of the atmosphere, such as wind, humidity and pressure.

In the same way musical harmony can evoke emotions, certain combinations of atmospheric waves can lead to complex clusters of clouds that evoke extreme rain events.

Equatorial atmospheric waves were first discovered mathematically in 1966 by Japanese researcher Taroh Matsuno. By solving equations that describe the behaviour of the atmosphere near the equator, he found waves that could be categorised by frequency, structure, speed and direction of movement.

Later research found these waves exist in the real world – and they have been studied ever since.

Some of the most important waves are called Kelvin waves and equatorial Rossby waves. Kelvin waves are centred around the equator, propagate to the east, and take between 2.5 and 17 days to complete one oscillation.

On the other hand, equatorial Rossby waves are structured as a pair of swirls, one north of the equator and one to the south, which propagate to the west. They are also slower than Kelvin waves, taking between 9 and 72 days to complete an oscillation.

There are also two other kinds of equatorial fluctuations, discovered after Matsuno’s original work. These are the Madden–Julian Oscillation, which propagates eastward, and tropical depression-type waves, which propagate to the west. Both of these have their own frequencies and influences on the Australian atmosphere.

Impacts on Australian weather

We studied the relationship between these waves and rainfall in northern Australia from 1981 to 2018. We found the waves had a significant impact on rainfall during the southern summer (December–February) and autumn (March–May).

Equatorial Rossby waves that cross Australia may make heavy rainfall around 1.5 times as likely as normal, while tropical depression-type waves make it 1.3 times more likely.

When waves combine in certain ways, heavy rain events become even more likely.

Atmospheric waves travelling around the equator can increase the chances of heavy rain – and combinations of waves can have an even greater impact.
Fadhlil Rizki Muhammad

For example, a combination of an equatorial Rossby wave and the Madden–Julian Oscillation can make heavy rain in northern Australia two to three times more likely. Similarly, if a tropical depression-type wave and an equatorial Rossby wave cross Australia at the same time, heavy rainfall could be twice as likely as usual.

Due to Australia’s vast landmass and local geography, the impacts of these waves are quite different across the continent. Regions such as the Kimberley, Cape York and the Top End experience the largest impact from these waves, increasing the chance of heavy rain by up to 3.3 times.

Meanwhile, the impacts of these waves on the eastern coast of Queensland and inland Queensland are not as great as in the other regions. However, the change in likelihood is still quite high: the waves can make heavy rain 1.4–2.2 times more likely than it would otherwise be.

What does the future look like?

We have shown that the activity of these “atmospheric melodies” is important and potentially provides room for improvement in weather models.

Currently, a good representation of these waves in weather models can improve forecasts up to two weeks ahead.

A better representation of these waves may improve future weather prediction in the tropics.

In addition, the impact of these waves in a warmer world is still a mystery. Recent research suggests some atmospheric waves, such as Kelvin and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, could become more intense, potentially with more organised cloud clusters and significant impacts on heavy rain events.

Fadhlil Rizki Muhammad receives funding from The University of Melbourne and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and the National Environmental Science Program.

Claire Vincent receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century

Sandro W. Lubis receives funding from U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of Global and Regional Model Analysis program area. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RLO1830.

ref. Huge waves in the atmosphere dump extreme rain on northern Australia – https://theconversation.com/huge-waves-in-the-atmosphere-dump-extreme-rain-on-northern-australia-240788

These 5 ‘post-truth’ claims are fuelling the water wars in Australia

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Quentin Grafton, Australian Laureate Professor of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Mr Privacy/Shutterstock

The contest between truth and post-truth matters when trying to solve big public policy questions. One of these questions is how to sustainably manage water in Australia for the benefit of all.

Truths can be confirmed or, at the very least, can be proved false. Post-truths, however, are opinions that masquerade as facts and are not supported by verifiable evidence.

Post-truths muddy political and policy debates. They leave everyday people simply not knowing what to believe anymore. This prevents good policy being enacted.

As I outline in a speech to the National Press Club today, several post-truths, espoused by a wide range of people and organisations, are getting in the way of Australian water reforms. These reforms are essential to secure a better water future for the driest inhabitable continent.

Water policy in Australia is now at a crucial juncture. This year is the 20th anniversary of the National Water Initiative that was meant to lay the foundations for sustainable water management. The completion date of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, accompanied by billions of dollars in funding, is just two years away.

Yet the so-called “water wars” are raging again. Here are five post-truth claims to watch out for.

Australia’s water wars are raging again.
Shutterstock

1. Water buybacks to sustain rivers harm communities

The Australian government buys water rights from willing sellers to return water to the environment. These buybacks have been controversial and blamed, with little evidence, for causing many farmers to become distressed and bankrupt, and to leave farming.

It’s true some irrigators are opposed to buybacks and prefer subsidies to build more efficient irrigation infrastructure on their properties.

But converting state water licences to a system of tradeable water rights gifted irrigators rights now worth tens of billions of dollars. In return, the government was supposed to buy back enough water from willing sellers to return rivers to health.

But insufficient water has been bought back from irrigators, for a couple of reasons.

First, the federal budget for buybacks was much less than needed to reduce irrigators’ water use to sustainable levels.

Second, the Abbott government capped buybacks in 2015. Its justification was the post-truth claim, based on “low quality” consultant reports, that buybacks were “destroying” irrigation communities.

The truth is, buybacks from willing sellers are much more cost-effective than taxpayer-subsidised irrigation infrastructure. Research shows infrastructure subsidies give irrigators an incentive to use even more water.

And there is robust evidence that, overall, the net social and economic impacts of water buybacks are positive. They give sellers the flexibility to adjust their farming practices in ways that are best for them.

2. Efficient irrigation ‘saves’ water and increases stream flows

Australia’s irrigation industry, in general, uses water efficiently. It’s a result of many practices, ranging from drip irrigation to covered water channels to digital monitoring technology, among other things.

However, spending on irrigation efficiencies has not saved much water.

Landholders have been paid billions of dollars for efficiency improvements. These same taxpayer dollars, paradoxically, may have reduced stream flows in some of our largest rivers. That’s because more efficient irrigation can decrease the amount of water flowing from farmers’ fields to rivers and aquifers.

3. Australia has world-best water management

Australia has one of the world’s largest formal water markets. But that doesn’t mean everyone benefits.

For a start, the water markets are unjust. First Peoples, who were dispossessed of their land and water from 1788 onwards, still have only a tiny share of Australia’s water rights.

In key areas, Australian water management is also far from best practice. For example, building weirs and dams has partly or completely disconnected groundwater from surface water and prevented or restricted the water flows to floodplains and wetlands that keep them healthy.

Fish, bird and invertebrate habitats have been destroyed as a result. This must change if we are to avoid further degradation of river ecosystems.

There is no more obvious sign of the ongoing destruction of Australia’s waterways than the fish kills along the Baaka (Lower Darling River) at Menindee. This happened in 2018–19, during a drought, and again in early 2023, when there was no drought.

The New South Wales Office of the Chief Scientist and Engineer investigated the 2023 fish kill. Its report found:

Mass fish deaths are symptomatic of degradation of the broader river ecosystem over many years […] failure in policy implementation is the root cause of the decline in the river ecosystem and the consequent fish deaths.

4. All Australians have reliable access to good-quality water

It’s true that residents of Australia’s biggest cities and towns enjoy reliable, good-quality water supplies 24/7. But it’s also true that hundreds of thousands of Australians in rural and remote areas regularly face multiple drinking water threats.

These threats result in temporary public advice notices to boil water to remove microbiological pollution and health warnings about contaminants that boiling cannot remove, such as nitrates. A few dozen communities have elevated levels of the “forever chemicals”, PFAS, in their tap water.

5. Dams can ‘drought-proof’ Australia

It’s true that dams have helped Australia cope with variable rainfall from year to year. It’s also true, however, that despite building very large water storages in the 20th century, too much water is being diverted in multiple places. They include the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia’s “food bowl”.

Australia is over-extracting the available water in its dams. It’s happening in the northern Murray-Darling Basin, where there is little control over how much overflow from rivers onto floodplains can be taken.

Over-extraction is a big problem, especially during long droughts when there may be very little water to spare. It means the livelihoods of downstream irrigators with perennial plantings, such as grapes or fruit trees, are at stake. If their trees die, so do their businesses.

A sustainable future must be built on facts

Responding to Australia’s water crises is a huge challenge. It’s made even more difficult if we accept the post-truth claims, rather than verifiable facts about how we manage our waters.

Real reform is needed to secure a sustainable Australian water future. To achieve this, we must tell the truth, acknowledge what’s wrong and be clear about what works and what doesn’t.

Quentin Grafton receives funding from the Australian Research Council in relation to his water research. He is a former Member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists (2010-2011).

John Williams is affiliated as founding member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, a former Chief CSIRO Land and Water and former NSW Comissioner of Natural Resources.

ref. These 5 ‘post-truth’ claims are fuelling the water wars in Australia – https://theconversation.com/these-5-post-truth-claims-are-fuelling-the-water-wars-in-australia-239941

Israel has banned the UN secretary-general. Is this legal – or right?

António Guterres, United Nations secretary general.

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Berhanu Woldemariam, Lecturer in law, University of Newcastle

In early October, Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, announced on X he had declared the United Nations secretary-general, António Guterres, persona non grata. In other words, he had banned Guterres from setting foot in Israel.

Katz said Guterres’ failure to “unequivocally condemn” Iran’s recent attack on Israel was the reason he was no longer welcome. The strongly worded statement further accused the UN chief of failing to “denounce” Hamas’ massacre in southern Israel on October 7 2023. He added:

A secretary-general who gives backing to terrorists, rapists and murderers from Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and now Iran — the mothership of global terror — will be remembered as a stain on the history of the UN.

Security Council members expressed their support for Guterres after Katz’s declaration. And Guterres’ spokesperson called it “a political statement” and “just one more attack […] on UN staff” by the Israeli government.

What is the significance of Israel’s declaration? And what kind of impact could it have?

What does persona non grata mean?

The Latin phrase persona non grata means “an unwelcome person”. In international law, it refers to the right of states to exclude a diplomat or consular officer from their territory. This can take the form of expelling a diplomat or denying them entry.

Under international conventions, nations are not required to provide a reason for such a declaration.

Diplomats and consular staff enjoy a wide range of immunities and privileges under international law. Among other things, they cannot be subjected to any form of arrest or detention, nor can they face legal action in a criminal or civil court.

The diplomat’s home nation must waive immunity for this kind of action to be taken.

The concept of persona non grata was therefore devised as a way to balance against these immunities and privileges. A nation that is aggrieved by the actions of a diplomat or consular officer can simply bar them from their territory, without even providing a reason.

Can UN officials be declared persona non grata?

There is a longstanding debate between the UN and its member states about the legality of such declarations.

The UN maintains its officials cannot be barred from member nations because they are not diplomats accredited to those countries. Rather, they are international civil servants who are accountable to a global organisation.

The UN also notes that declaring its officials persona non grata seriously interferes with the organisation’s functions, as well as the powers of the UN secretary-general under the UN Charter.

Many countries, however, do not agree with the UN’s position. In recent years, Ethiopia, Mali, Sudan and Armenia have all declared UN officials to be persona non grata, just to name a few.

Israel’s declaration is only the second time a nation has specifically banned the UN secretary-general. The first time was in the 1950s when both the Soviet Union and the Republic of China declared the first secretary-general, Trygve Lie, persona non grata.

In 1961, the Soviet Union also said it would not recognise Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold as an “official of the United Nations”.

Power must be handled with restraint

I am researching this issue, which has not yet been widely explored. My study is looking at two main questions: whether states have the right to bar UN officials and the implications of doing this.

On the first question, I believe there are strong legal reasons to support the rights of states to kick out – or keep out – UN officials.

For one, nations have a wide scope of sovereign rights to decide who enters and leaves their territory. This is a cardinal principle of sovereignty.

If UN officials are suspected of engaging in conduct harmful to a country’s national interests and security, it also has a right to defend and protect itself. One way of doing so is to expel the suspected UN official.

Lastly, there is no direct rule under international law that prohibits this kind of action.

Beyond these legal rights, however, is the important issue of what such an action means for the longer-term credibility and efficacy of the UN.

Because countries are not required to provide a reason for banning a foreign diplomat, this makes it a powerful political weapon if used against a UN official.

And banning UN officials specifically could also seriously jeopardise the organisation’s work and put innocent lives at risk. This is especially true in the context of armed conflicts where the UN is called upon to provide humanitarian assistance.

For example, in 2021, Ethiopia expelled five UN humanitarian officials who were providing food, medicine, water and other life-saving items to more than 5 million people in a region that was engaged in armed conflict with the federal government. Given the expelled officials were high-ranking staff, the action disrupted the co‑ordination and provision of assistance.

And banning the secretary-general, in particular, is perhaps the strongest indicator of the breakdown of the relationship between a state and the UN.

The secretary-general is the chief international civil servant and the embodiment of the organisation. Their leadership is also critical for providing emergency relief, brokering ceasefires and promoting peace.

Declaring the secretary-general persona non grata, therefore, seriously damages his or her standing, especially in the context of an armed conflict. It’s also a strong political statement against the UN more broadly, which could significantly complicate its humanitarian work.

Therefore, while countries do have the sovereign power to declare UN officials persona non grata, they need to exercise restraint in how they use this power. What such restraint should look like is an open question, but one that must be urgently addressed.

The Conversation

The author’s ongoing research work on the topic has received internal funding support from the College of Humanities and Social Futures at The University of Newcastle, NSW.

ref. Israel has banned the UN secretary-general. Is this legal – or right? – https://theconversation.com/israel-has-banned-the-un-secretary-general-is-this-legal-or-right-240674