Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rewi Newnham, Professor in Physical Geography, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

With about 90% of New Zealand’s natural wetlands drained or severely damaged during the past decades, we need to understand the role of native plants in the restoration of these important habitats.

Our new research details the history of raupō (bulrush) from the time before people arrived in Aotearoa. It shows this resilient, opportunistic plant – and taonga species – can play an important role restoring wetlands and freshwater quality.

An unexpected finding was that the decline of freshwater quality in many lakes did not really kick in until the mid-20th century with intensification of agriculture. Until then, lake water quality indicators generally showed these ecosystems remained healthy. The prolific expansion of raupō after Aotearoa was first settled may have helped.

Thriving on material washed from disturbed catchments, raupō acted as an ecological buffer, intercepting nutrients and sediments, and reducing potentially harmful effects on freshwater ecosystems.

From the mid-20th century, as water quality began to deteriorate, raupō populations – and any buffering effects – were generally in decline as wetlands and lake shallows were drained for grazing land and better access to water supply.

Lessons from this plant’s past can be put to good use today as we strive to bring back the mauri (life force) of our freshwater systems.

Survival strategies for hard times

Before settlement, when dense forest covered most of the country, raupō was surviving on the fringes. As a wetland plant, it likes its roots submerged, but needs light to grow.

Its preferred niche is the shallow margins of lakes, ponds and streams or nutrient-rich swamps. Before people, these places were much less common. Forests typically grew right up to the water’s edge and extended across some swamps.

Under these conditions, raupō evolved strategies for survival: aerated roots to cope with water logging; tiny, abundant seeds that spread far and wide on the wind; rhizomes (underground stems) that extend from the mother plant and store carbohydrates to keep the plant alive in lean times.

Raupō can even build floating root mats, from sediment trapped by its rhizomes, that extend out across open water and even detach from the shoreline to become mobile raupō islands.

With these survival strategies, raupō could wait for better times which, in Aotearoa’s dynamic environment, duly arrived.

Episodic agents of disruption – storms, floods, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic ashfall – created opportunities. Local forest damage allowed light to penetrate to ground level, and slips and floods brought nutrient-rich sediment from soils.

Raupō would seize these opportunities to expand. But they were typically short-lived as the inevitable process of forest succession returned the environment to stability – and raupō back to a state of patient hibernation.

Hitting the jackpot

Then people arrived, with fire and hungry mouths to feed. This time, the disturbances persisted. Forest clearances endured, sediments rich in nutrients flooded wetlands and lakes, and raupō, supremely equipped for just this scenario, spread across swamps and lake shores as wildfires spread on land.

Our tūpuna (ancestors) observed this behaviour, as well as what was happening around raupō. Insects and birds were feeding and nesting. Freshwater fish, crays, shellfish and eel spawned among its fertile beds.

This new-found abundance also offered a range of resource opportunities. Raupō’s flax-like leaves were woven into mats, rope and string. Leaves and stems were used like thatch to cloak the roofs and walls of whare.

Traditional poi were often made from raupō leaves. Some iwi, particularly in the south, used the stems to build lightweight boats for navigating rivers and lakes. Flower stalks, shoots and young leaves were eaten, and the rhizomes and roots, when cooked, provided edible carbohydrates. The most cherished raupō kai, however, were cakes baked using the copious raupō pollen.

Unsurprisingly, for many iwi raupō remains a taonga species today, treasured for this array of resources and for its ecological and even spiritual roles in maintaining the mauri of freshwater habitats, upon which so much depends.

For some iwi, raupō are seen as kaitiaki (guardians) watching over a lake or wetland, and signalling its health. In these ways, raupō also connects us with other Indigenous communities. Although raupō is native to this country, the same species is found in Australia and parts of East Asia, while relatives in the genus Typha (Greek for marsh) occur naturally on all continents, except Antarctica.

Similar practices occurred wherever raupō and its relatives are found.
This connection between cultural and ecological roles is one of the fascinating findings from our research. We describe raupō as a “human-associated species”, not just because of its taonga status, but because its fate seems so closely linked to people.

More work needs to be done, but history tells us raupō has an important role in restoring the health of our freshwater ecosystems. Not only can it soak up nutrients and contaminants, but as both a native and taonga species it can assist remediation solutions that are ecologically and culturally supportive and sustainable.

This research was funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment research programmes – Our lakes’ health; past, present, future (C05X1707) and Our lakes, Our future (CAWX2305).

– ref. The common raupō once kept NZ’s wetlands and lakes thriving – now it could help restore them – https://theconversation.com/the-common-raupo-once-kept-nzs-wetlands-and-lakes-thriving-now-it-could-help-restore-them-238887

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Bleich, Professorial fellow, Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies, Flinders University

In countries with compulsory voting, such as Australia and many in Latin America, the system usually ensures an overwhelming majority of voters cast their ballots election after election.

In the United States, it’s a very different story. Two-thirds of eligible voters turned out to vote in the 2020 presidential election – the highest rate since 1900. Turnout in presidential elections before 2020 tended to hover between 50% and 65%.

Often, it’s the voters choosing to stay home on the couch who effectively decide an election’s outcome.

Under the United States’ unusual Electoral College presidential voting system, the candidate who wins the most votes nationally does not necessarily win the election. Twice in the past 25 years, Democrats have won the popular vote in the presidential race and still lost the election. That includes Donald Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

As such, victory depends on getting more voters “off the couch” in key battleground states where the decisive Electoral College votes are up for grabs. In those states, it doesn’t matter what percentage of people show up to vote, or how much a candidate wins by, it is winner take all.

A voter who doesn’t vote, therefore, actually makes an active choice — they remove a vote from the candidate they would have likely chosen, and so give an important advantage to the person they would not have voted for.

The “couch” is effectively where Americans go to vote against their self-interest.

Who is more incentivised to vote?

As this year’s presidential election between Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, we ask a simple question: whose “couch” will decide one of the most consequential elections in living memory?

Recent research demonstrates that partisanship is an important driver of voter choice in presidential elections.

The fact that the US is deeply divided is not news to most, but current survey data show how evenly split along partisan lines it actually is. With about 30% of Americans identifying as a Republican and 30% identifying as a Democrat, there is virtually no difference in the total number of voters who support each major party.

The remaining 40% of Americans identify as “independent” – that is, not loyal to either major political party. Almost seven decades of research on the American voter shows, however, that independents heavily “lean” towards one party or the other, with about half leaning Republican and the other half leaning Democrat.

One possible insight into which group has greater incentive to vote is polling on people’s dissatisfaction with their party’s candidate.

According to the most recent Gallup Poll data, 9% of Republicans currently have an unfavourable opinion of Trump. In contrast, only 5% of Democrats have an unfavourable opinion of Harris.

Partisan voters who are dissatisfied with their party candidate have a massive incentive to “stay on the couch” and refrain from voting. They don’t really want to vote for “the other team”, but they can’t stand their own team anymore either.

For example, Republican women in the suburbs, veterans and traditional Republicans have started to abandon Trump over his stances on reproductive rights and national security, and his temperament. The Trump campaign clearly knows this. At a rally in New York a few days ago, he told attendees to “get your fat ass out of the couch” to go vote for him.

Should these disaffected Republican and Republican-leaning voters stay home on November 5, Harris may well have a decisive edge over Trump.

When the couch wins, America loses

In 2016, Trump defied the polls and traditional voter turn-out trends by convincing some disaffected, working-class Democrats to stay on the couch, vote for an unelectable third party candidate or, in some cases, vote for him.

Could this happen again? Or will Democrats be able to reverse this phenomenon by getting exhausted Republicans suffering Trump fatigue to stay home, while motivating everyone from Taylor Swift fans to “never Trumpers” to veterans of foreign wars to get out to vote.

Recent trends suggest overall turnout will be comparatively high, in line with the past three federal US elections.

Democrats have traditionally benefited from higher voter turn-out, but it is not as clear this is still the case in 2024. Recent research shows higher turnout rates seem to have favoured the Republican Party since 2016.

Yet both parties still have significant numbers of people who don’t vote. According to the Pew Research Center, 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents didn’t vote in the past three elections (2018, 2020 and 2022), compared to the 41% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

So again, who sits on the couch matters. Inevitably, many of those who stay home will get precisely what they don’t want. When the couch wins, America loses.

Jeff Bleich is a former US ambassador to Australia and a member of the National Security Leaders for America, a group of 700 former generals, admirals, service secretaries, ambassadors, and other national security professionals, that has endorsed Kamala Harris in the presidential election. He was also special counsel to President Barack Obama and served as chair of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board under President Donald Trump and as a member of President Joe Biden’s (non-partisan) National Security Education Board.

Rodrigo Praino receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government Department of Defence, and SmartSat CRC.

– ref. In a US presidential election with razor-thin margins, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins? – https://theconversation.com/in-a-us-presidential-election-with-razor-thin-margins-will-couch-sitters-decide-who-wins-239394

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland

In January 2023, a new comet was discovered. Comets are found regularly, but astronomers quickly realised this one, called C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS), had the potential to be quite bright.

Some hyperbolic reports have suggested it might be the “comet of the century”, but any astronomer will tell you the brightness of comets is notoriously hard to predict. As I explained last year, we’d have to wait until it arrived to be sure how bright it would become.

Now, the time has come. Comet C/2023 A3 is currently visible with the naked eye in the morning sky in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand, with its best yet to come in the next few weeks. And it does look promising. It’s unlikely to be the comet of the decade (never mind the comet of the century), but it will almost certainly become the best comet of the year.

So where, and when, should you look to get your best views of this celestial visitor?

A show in the morning, before sunrise

At the moment, comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) is a morning object, rising around an hour and a half before sunrise. It is visible to the naked eye, but not yet spectacular. However, with binoculars you can easily see the comet’s dusty tail pointing away from the Sun.

The comet will remain at about the same altitude in the morning sky until around September 30. It will then get closer to the horizon on each consecutive morning until it’s lost in the glare of the approaching dawn by October 6 or 7.

If you want to spot the comet in the morning sky, look east. The sliders below will help you orient yourself and choose the best time to look, depending on your latitude.

During this period, the comet should slowly brighten. It reaches its closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) on September 27, when it will be 58 million kilometres from our star.

As it swings around the Sun, it will continue to approach Earth, and so should continue to brighten. The best show in the morning sky will likely be during the last couple of days of September and the first few days in October, before the comet is lost to view.

A potential daylight comet

Thanks to pure good fortune, comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will then pass almost directly between Earth and the Sun on October 9 and 10.

This could cause a spectacular brightening of the comet, thanks to “forward scattering” caused by its dust. Imagine looking towards a bright light source through a cloud of dust grains. The grains nearest to the light source will scatter light from the source back towards you.

As the comet swings between Earth and the Sun, it will be perfectly placed for this forward scattering process to occur. If the comet is particularly dusty, this could cause its apparent brightness to increase by up to 100 times.

If it does, there’s a small chance the comet could briefly become visible in the daylight sky on October 9 and 10.

However, it will be very close to the Sun in the sky, and incredibly hard to spot. Only the most experienced observers may be able to detect the comet at this time, and it requires a special technique. Do not try to stare at the Sun to see it.

The best show could be after October 12

After swinging between Earth and the Sun, the comet will appear in the evening sky. It will rapidly climb in the western sky, and should be a bright, naked-eye object for a few days from October 12. The sliders below will give you a sense of where to look.

For the first few days of this period, the comet will still benefit from the forward scattering of sunlight, but this will decrease as it moves away.

What about the tail?

The positioning of the comet, Earth and the Sun in the Solar System means the comet’s tail will be streaming outwards, past our planet. This means it could grow to prodigious lengths in the night sky.

The bulk of that tail will likely be too dim to see easily with the naked eye, but it could be a fantastic spectacle for photographers. Expect to see a wealth of comet images flooding the internet around the middle of October.

As the days pass and the comet climbs higher, it will fade quite rapidly. It will likely become too faint to see with the naked eye, even for seasoned and experienced observers, before the end of October.

At that point, the show will be over. Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will continue to flee the inner Solar System, moving into the icy depths of space, never to return.

How reliable are the predictions?

At the moment, the comet is already bright enough to consider it the “comet of the year”, outshining comet 12P/Pons-Brooks from earlier this year.

But remember the classic saying – comets are like cats. They have tails and will often surprise us. For now, comet C/2023 A3 is behaving itself. It’s brightening predictably, and putting on a good show.

But comets that approach this closely to the Sun often fragment. This is impossible to predict, and far from guaranteed. If the comet did break up, it could become even more spectacular because of all the dust and gas it would release.

The opposite could still happen, too. The comet could fail to brighten as much as we expect, although that seems unlikely at this stage.

Whatever happens, we’re in for a fascinating few weeks of comet watching. Hopefully, a real spectacle awaits us.

Jonti Horner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The ‘best comet of the year’ is finally here – here’s everything you need to know – https://theconversation.com/the-best-comet-of-the-year-is-finally-here-heres-everything-you-need-to-know-239300

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Bleich, Professorial fellow, Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies, Flinders University

In countries with compulsory voting, such as Australia and many in Latin America, the system usually ensures an overwhelming majority of voters cast their ballots election after election.

In the United States, it’s a very different story. Two-thirds of eligible voters turned out to vote in the 2020 presidential election – the highest rate since 1900. Turnout in presidential elections before 2020 tended to hover between 50% and 65%.

Often, it’s the voters choosing to stay home on the couch who effectively decide an election’s outcome.

Under the United States’ unusual Electoral College presidential voting system, the candidate who wins the most votes nationally does not necessarily win the election. Twice in the past 25 years, Democrats have won the popular vote in the presidential race and still lost the election. That includes Donald Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

As such, victory depends on getting more voters “off the couch” in key battleground states where the decisive Electoral College votes are up for grabs. In those states, it doesn’t matter what percentage of people show up to vote, or how much a candidate wins by, it is winner take all.

A voter who doesn’t vote, therefore, actually makes an active choice — they remove a vote from the candidate they would have likely chosen, and so give an important advantage to the person they would not have voted for.

The “couch” is effectively where Americans go to vote against their self-interest.

Who is more incentivised to vote?

As this year’s presidential election between Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, we ask a simple question: whose “couch” will decide one of the most consequential elections in living memory?

Recent research demonstrates that partisanship is an important driver of voter choice in presidential elections.

The fact that the US is deeply divided is not news to most, but current survey data show how evenly split along partisan lines it actually is. With about 30% of Americans identifying as a Republican and 30% identifying as a Democrat, there is virtually no difference in the total number of voters who support each major party.

The remaining 40% of Americans identify as “independent” – that is, not loyal to either major political party. Almost seven decades of research on the American voter shows, however, that independents heavily “lean” towards one party or the other, with about half leaning Republican and the other half leaning Democrat.

One possible insight into which group has greater incentive to vote is polling on people’s dissatisfaction with their party’s candidate.

According to the most recent Gallup Poll data, 9% of Republicans currently have an unfavourable opinion of Trump. In contrast, only 5% of Democrats have an unfavourable opinion of Harris.

Partisan voters who are dissatisfied with their party candidate have a massive incentive to “stay on the couch” and refrain from voting. They don’t really want to vote for “the other team”, but they can’t stand their own team anymore either.

For example, Republican women in the suburbs, veterans and traditional Republicans have started to abandon Trump over his stances on reproductive rights and national security, and his temperament. The Trump campaign clearly knows this. At a rally in New York a few days ago, he told attendees to “get your fat ass out of the couch” to go vote for him.

Should these disaffected Republican and Republican-leaning voters stay home on November 5, Harris may well have a decisive edge over Trump.

When the couch wins, America loses

In 2016, Trump defied the polls and traditional voter turn-out trends by convincing some disaffected, working-class Democrats to stay on the couch, vote for an unelectable third party candidate or, in some cases, vote for him.

Could this happen again? Or will Democrats be able to reverse this phenomenon by getting exhausted Republicans suffering Trump fatigue to stay home, while motivating everyone from Taylor Swift fans to “never Trumpers” to veterans of foreign wars to get out to vote.

Recent trends suggest overall turnout will be comparatively high, in line with the past three federal US elections.

Democrats have traditionally benefited from higher voter turn-out, but it is not as clear this is still the case in 2024. Recent research shows higher turnout rates seem to have favoured the Republican Party since 2016.

Yet both parties still have significant numbers of people who don’t vote. According to the Pew Research Center, 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents didn’t vote in the past three elections (2018, 2020 and 2022), compared to the 41% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

So again, who sits on the couch matters. Inevitably, many of those who stay home will get precisely what they don’t want. When the couch wins, America loses.

Jeff Bleich is a former US ambassador to Australia and a member of the National Security Leaders for America, a group of 700 former generals, admirals, service secretaries, ambassadors, and other national security professionals, that has endorsed Kamala Harris in the presidential election. He was also special counsel to President Barack Obama and served as chair of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board under President Donald Trump and as a member of President Joe Biden’s (non-partisan) National Security Education Board.

Rodrigo Praino receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government Department of Defence, and SmartSat CRC.

– ref. In a too-close-to-call US presidential election, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins? – https://theconversation.com/in-a-too-close-to-call-us-presidential-election-will-couch-sitters-decide-who-wins-239394

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olga Anikeeva, Research Fellow, School of Public Health, University of Adelaide

Pandemics – the global spread of infectious diseases – seem to be making a comeback. In the Middle Ages we had the Black Death (plague), and after the first world war we had the Spanish flu. Tens of millions of people died from these diseases.

Then science began to get the upper hand, with vaccination eradicating smallpox, and polio nearly so. Antibiotics became available to treat bacterial infections, and more recently antivirals as well.

But in recent years and decades pandemics seem to be returning. In the 1980s we had HIV/AIDS, then several flu pandemics, SARS, and now COVID (no, COVID isn’t over).

So why is this happening, and is there anything we can do to avert future pandemics?

Unbalanced ecosystems

Healthy, stable ecosystems provide services that keep us healthy, such as supplying food and clean water, producing oxygen, and making green spaces available for our recreation and wellbeing.

Another key service ecosystems provide is disease regulation. When nature is in balance – with predators controlling herbivore populations, and herbivores controlling plant growth – it’s more difficult for pathogens to emerge in a way that causes pandemics.

But when human activities disrupt and unbalance ecosystems – such as by way of climate change and biodiversity loss – things go wrong.

For example, climate change affects the number and distribution of plants and animals. Mosquitoes that carry diseases can move from the tropics into what used to be temperate climates as the planet warms, and may infect more people in the months that are normally disease free.

We’ve studied the relationship between weather and dengue fever transmission in China, and our findings support the same conclusion reached by many other studies: climate change is likely to put more people at risk of dengue.

Biodiversity loss can have similar effects by disrupting food chains. When ranchers cleared forests in South America for their cattle to graze in the first half of the 20th century, tiny forest-dwelling, blood-feeding vampire bats suddenly had a smörgåsbord of large sedentary animals to feed on.

While vampire bats had previously been kept in check by the limited availability of food and the presence of predators in the balanced forest ecosystem, numbers of this species exploded in South America.

These bats carry the rabies virus, which causes lethal brain infections in people who are bitten. Although the number of deaths from bat-borne rabies has now fallen dramatically due to vaccination programs in South America, rabies caused by bites from other animals still poses a global threat.

As urban and agricultural development impinges on natural ecosystems, there are increasing opportunities for humans and domestic animals to become infected with pathogens that would normally only be seen in wildlife – particularly when people hunt and eat animals from the wild.

The HIV virus, for example, first entered human populations from apes that were slaughtered for food in Africa, and then spread globally through travel and trade.

Meanwhile, bats are thought to be the original reservoir for the virus that caused the COVID pandemic, which has killed more than 7 million people to date.

Ultimately, until we effectively address the unsustainable impact we are having on our planet, pandemics will continue to occur.

Targeting the ultimate causes

Factors such as climate change, biodiversity loss and other global challenges are the ultimate (high level) cause of pandemics. Meanwhile, increased contact between humans, domestic animals and wildlife is the proximate (immediate) cause.

In the case of HIV, while direct contact with the infected blood of apes was the proximate cause, the apes were only being slaughtered because large numbers of very poor people were hungry – an ultimate cause.

The distinction between ultimate causes and proximate causes is important, because we often deal only with proximate causes. For example, people may smoke because of stress or social pressure (ultimate causes of getting lung cancer), but it’s the toxins in the smoke that cause cancer (proximate cause).

Generally, health services are only concerned with stopping people from smoking – and with treating the illness that results – not with removing the drivers that lead them to smoke in the first place.

Similarly, we address pandemics with lockdowns, mask wearing, social distancing and vaccinations – all measures which seek to stop the spread of the virus. But we pay less attention to addressing the ultimate causes of pandemics – until perhaps very recently.

A planetary health approach

There’s a growing awareness of the importance of adopting a “planetary health” approach to improve human health. This concept is based on the understanding that human health and human civilisation depend on flourishing natural systems, and the wise stewardship of those natural systems.

With this approach, ultimate drivers like climate change and biodiversity loss would be prioritised in preventing future pandemics, at the same time as working with experts from many different disciplines to deal with the proximate causes, thereby reducing the risk overall.

The planetary health approach has the benefit of improving both the health of the environment and human health concurrently. We are heartened by the increased uptake of teaching planetary health concepts across the environmental sciences, humanities and health sciences in many universities.

As climate change, biodiversity loss, population displacements, travel and trade continue to increase the risk of disease outbreaks, it’s vital that the planetary stewards of the future have a better understanding of how to tackle the ultimate causes that drive pandemics.

This article is the first in a series on the next pandemic.

Olga Anikeeva receives funding from Green Adelaide.

Jessica Stanhope receives funding from the Ecological Health Network and Green Adelaide. She is affiliated with the Environmental Physiotherapy Association.

Peng Bi receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, AusAID,

Philip Weinstein receives funding from competitive external granting bodies. He is affiliated with Nature Foundation, Australian Entomological Society, and the South Australian Museum.

– ref. Why are we seeing more pandemics? Our impact on the planet has a lot to do with it – https://theconversation.com/why-are-we-seeing-more-pandemics-our-impact-on-the-planet-has-a-lot-to-do-with-it-226827

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jay Rutovitz, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney

The electricity workforce will need to double in five years to achieve Australia’s 2030 renewable energy target, our new report finds. More than 80% of these jobs will be in renewables. Jobs in energy storage alone will overtake domestic coal and gas jobs (not including the coal and gas export sector) in the next couple of years.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) updates its Integrated System Plan every two years. It’s a blueprint for the energy transition from coal to renewable energy. The plan lays out scenarios for how the electricity system might change to help put in place all the elements needed to make the transition happen.

AEMO and the RACE for 2030 co-operative research centre commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures to undertake modelling on the workforce needed for this transition. The “step change” scenario in the Integrated System Plan is broadly aligned with the 2030 renewables target. Under this scenario, we found the electricity workforce would need to grow from 33,000 to peak at 66,000 by 2029.

Rooftop solar and batteries together are projected to account for over 40% of these jobs. Wind farms will employ around one-third and solar farms just under 10%. Jobs would also treble in transmission line construction to connect renewables in regional areas to cities and other states in the next few years.

Job growth would surge in a ‘renewable energy superpower’

In the “green energy export” scenario, Australia becomes a “renewable energy superpower”. The country uses renewable energy to export green hydrogen and power heavy industry. In this scenario, the electricity workforce would almost treble to 96,000 by the late 2020s.

By 2033, after construction peaks, more than half of electricity sector jobs will be in operations and maintenance. This applies to both the step change and green energy export scenarios.

A significant employment downturn is projected during the 2030s. But in the green energy export scenario jobs then climb steeply again to a peak of 120,000. This projection reflects AEMO’s expectations of when green export growth will occur.

New South Wales is projected to have the most renewable energy jobs in the 2020s. However, Queensland would become the largest state for renewable jobs (especially in wind farms) in the green energy export scenario.

What are the other possibilities?

“Progressive change” is another scenario in the Integrated System Plan. For this scenario, we modelled slower growth in renewable energy. It reflects constraints on the economy and supply chains (including labour and minerals) for renewables.

In an “enhanced manufacturing” scenario, local renewable energy manufacturing increases. Our modelling found it could create a peak of 5,000 extra jobs.

Importantly, these projections don’t include upstream jobs in supply chains for the sector (for example, increased mining to supply the resources that renewables need) or electrification of homes.

Creating this many jobs is very challenging

Our modelling shows the workforce needs to grow very rapidly to make Australia’s energy transition happen. Unfortunately, the challenges of building this workforce are daunting. They include:

• there’s a shortage of almost all key occupations in demand for the electricity sector – electricians, engineers, construction managers – according to Australia’s Skills Priority List

• “extraordinary growth” forecast by Infrastructure Australia in other major infrastructure projects, such as transport, which will compete for many of the same skilled workers

• under AEMO’s scenarios, employment will be subject to boom-bust cycles, which increases the risk of skill shortages and damaging impacts, such as housing shortages, in regional areas

• Australia has relied heavily on skilled migrants – and will look to do so again – but many parts of the world are chasing the same workers.

The International Energy Agency has noted:

Labour and skills shortages are already translating into project delays, raising concerns that clean energy solutions will be unable to keep pace with demand to meet net zero targets.

What can be done to avoid skill shortages?

Some action has been taken to increase the workforce. The federal government, for instance, is subsidising apprentices under the New Energy Apprenticeship program.

But action isn’t happening at the scale and pace required.

What else can be done?

Firstly, Jobs Skills Australia and Powering Skills Organisation (which oversees energy skills training) have outlined ways to increase the system’s capacity to train more skilled workers. This includes creating better pathways into renewable energy for students, especially in recognised Renewable Energy Zones.

Secondly, Jobs Skills Australia has noted the need for renewable energy businesses to increase their intakes of apprentices. It recommends expanding the Australian Skills Guarantee to include generation and transmission projects.

The guarantee has set mandatory targets for apprentices or trainees to complete 10% of labour hours on Commonwealth-funded major construction and information technology projects (A$10 million plus). It could also be applied to major government funding programs for renewable energy and transmission. These include:

• the Capacity Investment Scheme, a government tender program to support a large volume of new renewables and storage projects

• Rewiring the Nation, a $20 billion fund for transmission lines

• grants from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

Thirdly, government tenders could moderate the peaks and troughs in employment by limiting the maximum and minimum volumes built each year.

Fourthly, including more women and First Nations Australians can increase labour supply and workforce diversity. Only one-in-two First Nations Australians are employed compared to around two in three in the wider population. Yet they account for around one-in-ten people in some major Renewable Energy Zones.

Government pre-employment programs, working with industry and First Nations groups, could also increase the supply of workers. These could have a dramatic social impact too.

It’s a challenging problem whichever way you look at it. We need rapid change to build renewable energy capacity before coal plants retire and to tackle climate change. But that depends on growing the workforce amid skill shortages.

There’s a range of ways to increase the supply of workers and improve local outcomes. But we are running out of time. Urgent action is needed.

The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the RACE for 2030 CRC for the report upon which this article is based

The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the RACE for 2030 CRC for the report upon which this article is based.

– ref. Our electricity workforce must double to hit the 2030 renewables target. Energy storage jobs will soon overtake those in coal and gas – https://theconversation.com/our-electricity-workforce-must-double-to-hit-the-2030-renewables-target-energy-storage-jobs-will-soon-overtake-those-in-coal-and-gas-239718

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Cull, Associate professor, Western Sydney University

Negative gearing and capital gains tax are back on the national agenda as Australians deal with a housing crisis and politicians look for ways to tackle the issue and win voters’ support at the upcoming election.

The Labor government confirmed this week the tax concessions were being reviewed. Meanwhile, the government is struggling to pass its Help to Buy housing assistance legislation through the Senate.

The Help to Buy legislation is aimed at helping first home buyers on low and middle incomes purchase their first home. The government would contribute up to 40% of the home purchase price and require only a 2% deposit from buyer. Buyers could eventually buy back the government’s equity share.

But the legislation has stalled with the Greens wanting more including rent caps and pulling back negative gearing while the Coalition says the government “shouldn’t be in the business of co-owning people’s homes”.

The review, revealed yesterday, could reportedly include a cap on the number of properties a person could negatively gear. The changes would not affect anyone who is currently negatively geared.

Negative gearing lets taxpayers claim deductions on their tax for the expenses relating to owning an investment property. They can save on tax as the property potentially rises in value. They can also be eligible for a reduced capital gains tax when they sell the property.

But any changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax policies could face further opposition – depending on how they are implemented. The crucial issue is whether the changes free up enough housing stock and make it more affordable for buyers and renters.

Home ownership in Australia

Based on National Housing Supply and Affordability Council data, home ownership across most age groups has been declining since the 1970s.

Younger households, aged between 25 and 34 years, are hardest hit, having 34% of household income spent on mortgage costs in 2022–23.

About 67% of households in Australia are home owners, and the remainder renters. While the proportion of owners with a mortgage has increased since 1994, so too has the proportion of private renters.

Size of the investment market

Just under 10% of all taxpayers negatively geared their properties in 2020–21 and more than 70% of property investors have only one investment property.

While there have been calls for changes to negative gearing policy to cap the number of investment properties at six, this would impact about only 20,000 individual property investors.

Changes to capital gains tax

Suggestions to increase capital gains tax (CGT) need to be considered carefully, given that:

• there is no solid evidence to show that increasing CGT will increase housing supply and in fact, it may have the opposite effect by limiting rental housing available

• any change to CGT legislation also impacts other investments (such as shares), as the CGT discount also applies to other capital gains

• multiple investment properties are often held within self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) which are subject to different CGT rules and also benefit from superannuation tax concessions

• the rapid increase in housing prices over recent years is likely to result in very large amounts of CGT being paid on investment properties, even with the current 50% CGT discount.

Other ways to improve affordability and availability

Policy discussions around housing affordability and availability invariably lead to suggestions to change how negative gearing and capital gains tax operate. However, taxation policy is not the only solution available.

Another suggestion put forward is to allow first home buyers to use their superannuation for deposits.

Regardless of one’s position on accessing superannuation for something other than retirement, this suggestion is not viable for low to middle income earners. These households are unlikely to have substantial superannuation balances. Also, they don’t have the earning capacity to service a mortgage for the outstanding amount.

There is currently a push to use self-managed super funds SMSFs to enable home ownership. This would effectively allow individuals to become tenants in homes owned by their super funds.

However, the complexities of superannuation law mean this could cause big problems for people whose relationships break down.

Considering the generational wealth that currently exists in property, the government could consider making it easier for parents or grandparents to gift (or sell) property to their children or grandchildren, in certain circumstances.

This area has not yet been sufficiently explored.

What needs to change

The real issue of housing affordability is multifaceted, and any change needs to be done as part of a broader policy.

It is likely that on its own, changes to negative gearing and/or capital gains tax will not achieve the intended outcome to make housing more accessible and affordable for Australians who want to buy a home.

While the debate around the best way to achieve housing affordability and accessibility continues, and while there are statistics that tell us about the current housing crisis, one crucial thing that is missing is the voice of the very people that any new housing policy should be designed to assist.

More consultation is needed with younger age groups and low to middle income earners who are struggling with high rent and unable to purchase their own home.

Australia desperately needs bold new innovative housing policies that do not rely solely on the taxation system but that consider a raft of measures that meet the housing needs of everyday Australians.

Michelle Cull is co-founder of the Western Sydney University Tax Clinic which has received funding from the Australian Taxation Office as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. Michelle Cull is a member of CPA Australia and the Financial Advice Association Australia. Michelle is also an academic member of UniSuper’s Consultative Committee and volunteers as Chair of the Macarthur Advisory Council for the Salvation Army Australia.

– ref. The government is reviewing negative gearing and capital gains tax, but this won’t be enough to fix our housing shortage – https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-reviewing-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-but-this-wont-be-enough-to-fix-our-housing-shortage-239813

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Blumenfeld, Director, Centre for Labour, Employment and Work, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon sparked debate on the future of work in New Zealand this week when he ordered public service employees back to the office.

But Luxon’s edict neglects a broader transformation in work culture.

Work from home (WFH) arrangements have grown considerably over the past decade, propelled by an increase in dual-income households and rapid technological advancements.

The COVID pandemic acted as a catalyst for further change, proving that many jobs could successfully be performed remotely.

Our upcoming article in the New Zealand Journal of Employment Relations addresses the pros and cons of remote work. We highlight how a hybrid model – mixing days in the office with days working from home – can improve wellbeing, engagement and productivity.

We found embracing a hybrid approach may lead to better outcomes as society shifts with technology and employment expectations. And, despite the prime minister’s demands on public service workers, it may be too late to go back.

Embracing flexibility

Under current rules, employees can request flexible working arrangements. Employers must provide valid reasons if they decline the request.

According to a 2023 survey from Human Resources New Zealand, 40% of HR professionals noted productivity gains as a critical advantage of WFH arrangements.

And some professional organisations have embraced work from home or hybrid work arrangements.

The New Zealand Law Association, for example, has emphasised the significant benefits of flexible work for their members, including increased employee engagement, productivity, and overall wellbeing.

A report from Te Kawa Mataaho Public Service Commission noted the public service’s success in delivering quality services during the pandemic while working remotely.

The commission’s current guidance on hybrid work arrangements supports flexibility that allows working from home to focus and working together when necessary.

Does WFH reduce efficiency?

Luxon argues forcing workers back to the office will promote efficiency. But there is little evidence suggesting New Zealand’s productivity has significantly declined with WFH or hybrid arrangements.

Instead, we found office-only arrangements risked introducing new inefficiencies for the government. These included new layers of permissions and reporting on arrangements that have already been agreed to.

The assumption that office work suits everyone is also contradicted by experiences during and after COVID.

During the first year of the pandemic, many workers felt the void of casual interactions that once sparked creativity. They also struggled with isolation. This was especially pronounced for caregivers, often women, who had to juggle professional duties with increased childcare responsibilities.

Despite this, a University of Otago survey conducted during the pandemic noted 67% of participants preferred a hybrid work model.

Many expressed optimism regarding remote work’s continuation, with significant portions reporting stable or increased productivity, although some struggled with home distractions.

And our research found taking a hybrid approach to work – with one or more days at home – reduced the risks from professional and social isolation and improved collaboration.

Opportunities to work at home some of the time also allowed time for focused work, reduced commuting time and improved wellbeing.

Boosting productivity from home

Luxon’s assertion that working from home is “not an entitlement” aligns with traditional views on work. These include the belief that time at a desk is a measurement of productivity, rather than measuring the outcomes from work.

However, a growing body of evidence indicates remote work can elevate both productivity and employee satisfaction.

Eliminating daily commutes allows employees to redirect time toward focused work, positively impacting job satisfaction and mental wellbeing.

Moreover, remote work fosters inclusivity, enabling organisations to source talent from a broader geographic area, which in turn enhances diversity and innovation.

A report from McKinsey & Company found businesses adopting flexible work arrangements are better positioned to navigate future uncertainties, sustaining or even boosting productivity.

A survey by the Australian Council of Trade Unions exploring WFH revealed nearly 48% of participants experienced enhanced productivity, attributed in part to the elimination of commuting.

However, it also highlighted challenges. Some 40% of respondents said they were facing longer work hours, which can lead to burnout. Addressing these issues is essential to maintaining employee wellbeing.

The future of work

Instead of enforcing strict office attendance, leaders should adapt to the changing work landscape.

Promoting flexible arrangements can foster a more productive and engaged workforce, ultimately benefiting New Zealand’s public service in today’s dynamic environment.

Balancing both office and remote work presents the most promising path forward.

Joanne Crawford receives funding from the Health Research Council and the NZ Industrial Relations Foundation Trust.

Roya Gorjifard receives funding from the Victoria University of Wellington for Doctoral Research.

Chris Peace and Stephen Blumenfeld do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Mixing it up: hybrid work models can offer the best of both worlds for worker wellbeing and productivity – https://theconversation.com/mixing-it-up-hybrid-work-models-can-offer-the-best-of-both-worlds-for-worker-wellbeing-and-productivity-239710

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Xanthe Mallett, Forensic Criminologist, University of Newcastle

Are we products of nature or nurture?

That’s the age-old question at the heart of Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan’s new Netflix release, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menéndez Story. The show focuses on the 1989 murders of José and Kitty Menéndez by their sons Erik and Lyle.

The prosecution convinced a jury the two brothers were cold-blooded killers, driven by the desire to access their parents’ wealth. The brothers, meanwhile, claim to be victims of physical, emotional and sexual abuse at the hands of their parents – and say the killings were therefore self-defence.

What’s the truth? Perhaps both.

Creating the image of a ‘monster’

The case details are well known. In fact, I have taught this case to my own criminology students as an example of the victim-offender overlap, as clearly these brothers existed in a very dysfunctional family.

On August 20 1989, brothers Lyle (then 21) and Erik (then 18) shot and killed their parents in their Beverly Hills mansion. They faced two trials. The first one in 1993 saw the brothers tried separately and ended in two hung juries and subsequent mistrials.

In the second trial, which began in 1995, the pair were tried together. In 1996 they were found guilty of first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder, and sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

Interestingly, the prosecution raised new objections to the admission of a large amount of defence evidence in the second trial, so the judge consequently excluded much of the evidence of abuse.

This essentially dismantled the brothers’ entire defence, which was predicated on the fact they killed their parents out of fear, after they threatened to expose their father for serious and protracted physical, sexual and emotional abuse.

The Netflix series has created significant controversy. It documents a version of events leading up to the murders, including detailed histories of both Lyle’s and Erik’s sexual abuse, as well as the crimes themselves and subsequent trials.

In the series, the brothers are portrayed in a homoerotic and incestuous way. For context, back in 1995 Lyle testified that he sexually offended against Erik, but this was against the background of the alleged sexual abuse from their father.

Monsters, on the other hand, shows the brothers having an incestuous relationship as adults. The brothers deny this and there’s little evidence to support it.

While the pair is sometimes painted in a sympathetic light, at other times the viewer is led to question whether greed was their true motive.

Erik Menéndez has slammed the series, saying it walks back on decades of understanding of the devastating impacts sexual abuse has on male victims.

I have to agree.

The brothers didn’t just kill their parents and call it a day. These murders were incredibly brutal. As a criminologist, it looked to me like they were trying to obliterate their parents.

José was shot in the back of the head, execution-style, while Kitty was shot a total of ten times, including one shot directly to her face. Such crimes are generally not motivated by money; they tend to be driven by something much deeper.

Murder porn at its worst

This case can be seen through the ghoulish eyes of “murder porn”. The first trial, which was televised in 1993, went viral on TikTok in 2021, engaging a new generation of fans.

Watching the footage from the 1990s, some of us will remember the legions of screaming girls who welcomed the handsome brothers to court. It was more like a scene from a boyband concert than a brutal double-murder trial.

Whether you believe the brothers are cold-blooded and opportunistic killers, or victims of serious child abuse, will influence your take on the ongoing interest in the case and the portrayal in Monsters.

Monsters isn’t the first example of Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan cheapening real tragedies by turning them into voyeuristic and fictionalised television.

The first instalment of the same series focused on Jeffrey Dahmer, a serial killer and sex offender who killed 17 men and boys between 1978 and 1991. Dahmer also engaged in necrophilia and cannibalism, so his brutal crimes were rich fodder for Netflix.

Dahmer’s victims were openly critical, saying the retelling of the offender’s story diminished their loved ones’ suffering and revictimised them by opening old wounds.

Regardless, Dahmer achieved critical acclaim with 13 nominations at the 2023 Emmy Awards, no doubt spurring the creators’ enthusiasm to further develop the franchise.

The way forward

The path to ethical true crime depiction lies in establishing facts and veering away from embellishing or glorifying the criminal or their crimes.

Ideally, true crime should be victim focused and should achieve a purpose beyond entertainment. We have a lot to learn from criminal history, but these stories should be told in educational ways that respect and honour victims’ lives.

We each have a responsibility to consume ethically produced true crime. Whether it’s TV series, films, podcasts or books, we vote for what we want through our engagement. My maxim is to choose content that reflects how I would want my story told, were I to ever become the focus of a true crime production.

If you’re curious to hear more about the Menéndez brothers’ story, a new Netflix documentary called The Menéndez Brothers is set for release on October 7. Both Erik and Lyle have contributed to it through phone interviews conducted from prison – and they say there’s much that hasn’t been told.

Xanthe Mallett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Netflix’s Monsters is ‘murder porn’ at its worst. It comes at a cost to real victims – and the truth – https://theconversation.com/netflixs-monsters-is-murder-porn-at-its-worst-it-comes-at-a-cost-to-real-victims-and-the-truth-239596

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University

Prestigious Victorian golf club 13th Beach Golf Links, famed for award-winning courses and hosting the Victorian Open, has found itself in the middle of a controversy.

In a bid to bolster membership, diversity and revenue, the club has introduced additional membership categories for women. These memberships form part of a dedicated campaign to get more women on the greens, following a member and board supported strategic plan to grow women’s membership from 18% to 30% by 2027.

Despite the club’s commitment to gender representation, its status as a signatory to The Royal & Ancient Golf Club of St Andrews (R&A)’s Women in Golf Charter and recognition as a 2023 Visionary of the Year by Golf Australia for its “whole-club approach to gender equity”, support among some members remains wanting.

A stunt that made waves

Controversy erupted at 13th Beach after its new women’s memberships were launched.

One male member, wearing a blonde wig and skirt, was captured approaching club staff to inquire about the new women’s membership options, remarking:

I’m identifying as a female now and I’m just about to inquire about the new membership deal.

The male member, and two others who filmed and shared the footage, were temporarily suspended from the club.

A key element to the controversy is the discounted membership compared to male golfers.

After the stunt, some men and women claimed:

[The club] openly discriminates against males […] it is both fair and just for female members to pay the same subs as their male counterparts, as equality is a fundamental principle that we should uphold.

However, this statement conveniently denies the sport’s current and past issues with gender, race and class.

Historical and current barriers

Globally year-on-year, the growth of male golf participation outnumbers women, with women making up 23% of adult registered golfers worldwide.

In Australia, golf participation rates continue to rise. Among women and girls, Golf Australia reported a near 13% increase from 2022–23.

Despite this rise, access issues and barriers to full participation for women and girls run deep.

A lack of visibility of female golfers can reinforce stereotypes of golf as a men’s game, while women can struggle with amenities and equipment designed for men.

Golf is steeped in gendered, raced and classed exclusion, and was traditionally a sport for men of similar social standing.

Women were confined to secret games or putting activities, away from the “real” golf played by men.

Women were banned from golf’s spiritual home, St Andrews in Scotland, for 260 years – until a 2014 vote when female membership was finally permitted.

Two years earlier, premier United States course Augusta National welcomed its first women members.

An uneven playing field

Despite recent improvements, women’s golf participation and membership access frequently remain conditional.

Traditionally in Australia, women and girls have been restricted to “associate” or “lady” memberships – which often have lower status and fewer benefits.

Course access can also be problematic, with Saturdays often reserved for male players.

At many Australian clubs, Tuesdays are often referred to as “ladies day” which assumes women don’t have work or other commitments.

Women members are often allotted less popular tee times while overall, some club cultures can render golf courses chilly climates for women.

Being scrutinised and surveilled on the greens by male golfers is reported by women as a barrier – feelings of hyper-visibility, being mocked for their play and their bodies frequently undermines women’s enjoyment.

At the professional level, while the women’s game is increasing in prize money, media coverage and sponsorship, there is still significant room for change.

For female professional golfers, research also highlights a male-dominated and “sexist environment”.

Inclusivity is good for everyone

In a bid to increase participation among more diverse groups, Golf Australia is inspiring people to “go play and enjoy golf in their own way”.

As part of its “own way campaign,” programs have been designed for seniors, women and disabled players.

Recognising how differences such as race and culture shape golf participation, more community-facing programs are targeting improved diversity.

Off the greens, golf leadership and administration is also under the spotlight.

Including women’s voices in decision making is key to realising meaningful change – research clearly finds boards with diversity of thought and representation perform better.

Beyond the important inclusivity debates, there are clear commercial reasons to enable women’s participation.

Very recent industry research states there are an estimated 36.9 million latent women golfers around the world, and this group may be worth up to US$35 billion (A$51 billion) to the golf industry should they take up the sport more permanently.

Golf has a lucrative opportunity.

Valuing and enabling diversity in all areas should fill the coffers and genuinely position golf as a sport for all.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Swing and a miss? Why golf in Australia is struggling to attract women and girls – https://theconversation.com/swing-and-a-miss-why-golf-in-australia-is-struggling-to-attract-women-and-girls-239202

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

A closely watched measure of Australian inflation dived in the month of August, plunging from 3.5% in July to just 2.7%.

The dip below 3% puts the monthly measure of annual inflation back within the Reserve Bank’s target band of 2-3% for the first time since August 2021.

The longer-running quarterly measure of annual inflation is also likely to be back within the 2-3% band when the September-quarter figure is released next month.

The dramatically lower inflation rate puts Australia in the same league as the United States, whose inflation rate is 2.5%, and the United Kingdom, whose inflation rate is 2.2%.

The US and the UK have inflation targets of 2%, meaning their inflation rates are still somewhat above target. Australia’s monthly measure of inflation is on target, close to the middle of the band.

Electricity prices down 17.9%

Inflation has been trending down since late 2022, as shown on the graphs, but the sharp drops in the past two months are largely due to electricity rebates offered by the federal and state governments.

The rebates will be applied automatically to electricity bills in this and each of the next three quarters. A staged rollout means they hit bills in only Queensland and Western Australia in July and hit other states in August.

The Bureau of Statistics says these rebates took 6.4% off the average national power price in July and a further 14.6% off in August.

Household electricity prices were down 17.9% over the year to August. The Bureau of Statistics describes this as the largest annual fall on record.

Also helping bring down inflation were lower petrol prices and cheaper public transport, aided by Brisbane’s pre-election six-month trial of 50 cent fares.

The jump in the monthly measure to 4% in May, which had excited some commentators, now looks like a misleading blip.

A takeaway is to be cautious in interpreting the less-comprehensive monthly indicator, as is the Reserve Bank, which puts it in small print at the top of its website under the quarterly index, which it headlines in big print.

For what it’s worth, I am expecting the quarterly index to show annual inflation of 2.8% in the year to September, down from 3.8% for the June quarter.

Governor Bullock isn’t impressed

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock says that at the moment she is paying more attention to the “underlying” rate of inflation, which looks through temporary measures such as subsidies.

But the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, the so-called trimmed mean, also fell in August, to 3.4%, down from 3.8% in July.

Australia’s weak economy – right now it’s the weakest outside of a recession – means the underlying measure of inflation is likely to continue to fall, unless the tax cuts that started in July have a big effect.

Why do we target 2-3% anyway?

Reserve Bank set its target of 2-3% inflation in the early 1990s without a lot of science. It was about where inflation was, close to the targets adopted by other countries, and was a range rather than a specific number in order to give the authorities some flexibility.

But it happens to be a sensible target, as last year’s independent review of the Reserve Bank confirmed.

The bank wants to target an inflation rate low enough to not be noticed much and to not much distort decisions.

Evidence from Google searches suggests that when inflation is around the 2-3% range, people don’t much notice it, but when it climbs up to 4% or 5%, they notice it a lot and search for the word a lot.

Although zero is (literally) a round number, zero inflation would be too low a target. It would mean deflation (prices falling) as often as not to balance out the prices that were climbing. Deflation is associated with recessions and poor economic performance.

An inflation rate of 2-3% also allows some real wages to fall (because they can increase by less than the inflation rate), which can be useful in encouraging workers out of declining industries into ones that are expanding.

In particularly bad times, the Reserve Bank might want to push interest rates down below the inflation rate. This is hard to do if the inflation rate is zero.

In theory, there is a case for increasing Australia’s inflation target to about where inflation is at the moment, but if that happened, Australia’s inflation target and future inflation targets would have less credibility.

And in any event, we are moving quickly back towards the target, and on Wednesday’s measure have already hit it.

Read more:
No RBA rate cut yet, but Governor Bullock is about to find the pressure overwhelming

John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist and forecaster in the Reserve Bank and the Australian Treasury.

– ref. At 2.7%, Australian inflation is back within the RBA zone. Here’s why that matters – https://theconversation.com/at-2-7-australian-inflation-is-back-within-the-rba-zone-heres-why-that-matters-237650

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda Przhedetsky, PhD Candidate, Faculty of Law, University of Technology Sydney

This week the New South Wales government announced it would introduce legislation that ensures renters are offered convenient, fee-free options to pay their rent.

The announcement is just one of many state and territory reforms that aim to address issues arising from the use of rental technology platforms.

In recent years these platforms and the landlords who use them have come under fire for intruding on renters’ privacy and charging additional fees. While practices such as “rent bidding” have already been outlawed around Australia, governments are now starting to turn their attention to other harmful practices facilitated by new technologies.

Action on these issues is long overdue, and there’s much more that needs to be done to ensure rental technology platforms actually benefit consumers.

An expanding industry

A wide range of digital technology platforms are used to facilitate the use, trading, operation and management of real estate assets. A well-known example is AirBnb, a technology platform that facilitates short-term rentals by connecting hosts with guests.

The property technology industry in Australia is rapidly expanding. In 2023, there were more than 478 products, start-ups and established companies ranging from marketing tools to data analytics platforms. This was up from 188 in 2019.

A portion of these companies make services typically designed to be used by renters, real estate agents or landlords.

A major selling point of rental technology platforms is that they promise to streamline a range of processes. To renters, these technologies are billed as quick, easy and effective ways to submit property applications, request maintenance or pay rent.

If designed well, these platforms can certainly offer convenience. But many have expressed dissatisfaction with rental technology businesses that pressure renters to pay for costly background checks, collect too much personal data, or use opaque algorithms to “score” applicants.

People who struggle to access or use technologies may also find these platforms difficult to use. This makes it harder for them to access an essential service.

Some 41% of renters report feeling pressured to use a third-party rental technology platform to apply for a property. And 29% say they have opted not to apply for particular rentals because they do not trust rental technology platforms. This suggests that the use of these technologies may sometimes deter, rather than attract, applicants.

Additional fees

Over 30% of Australians rent their homes, a figure that continues to grow as people find themselves priced out of home ownership. Rising rents and the overall increase in the cost of living have put many renters under substantial financial pressure.

With this in mind, it’s concerning that some renters have found themselves with little choice but to use rental technology platforms that charge fees to process rental payments.

For example, renters using a popular platform called Alio are typically charged between 0.25% to 1.50% to make automated rental payments, depending on the method of payment they use. A rough estimate shows that a household paying the median weekly rent (A$627 per week) on a fortnightly basis might see themselves paying between $81.51 and $489.06 in additional fees each year.

As required by law, Alio does offer a fee-free option to pay rent. But this option is highly inconvenient: it requires renters to enter their bank details anew every month.

The fee-free options offered by some other rental technology platforms are equally inconvenient. They include paying rent in cash at the local post office.

For renters who have been asked to use a rental payment platform, this may mean spending additional time and effort every time they pay their rent to avoid paying additional fees.

The NSW government already requires lessors to offer fee-free ways to pay rent (similar protections are legislated in other states and territories). However, the key element of this week’s announcement is a commitment to making sure these fee-free methods are actually convenient. This should hopefully close the legislative loophole that is enabling these rental technologies to unfairly profit at renters’ expense.

While the draft legislation is yet to be seen, these reforms might see renters reverting to tried and tested payment methods such as bank transfers and bypassing rental technology payment platforms altogether.

Effective enforcement

Introducing laws that ensure renters have access to convenient, fee-free ways to make rental payments is a no-brainer. The next step is ensuring these laws are enforced effectively.

To achieve this, the regulator must be well resourced to carry out compliance and enforcement activities that ensure lessors and rental technology businesses comply with these protections.

Beyond these reforms, there is more work to be done to ensure renters are effectively protected from a range of harms that are created or exacerbated by rental technology platforms.

Issues such as discrimination and unfair treatment through rental technology platforms warrant further attention.

The key challenge for governments and regulators is to keep up with technological developments so they can identify and address issues as they arise.

Linda Przhedetsky is a Board Member at the NSW Tenants’ Union, and is a member of the NSW Fair Trading’s Industry Reference Group on Protecting Renter Information. She receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.

– ref. What are ‘rent tech’ platforms? Action on reining in these exploitative tools is long overdue – https://theconversation.com/what-are-rent-tech-platforms-action-on-reining-in-these-exploitative-tools-is-long-overdue-239602

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Russell Fewster, Lecturer in Performing Arts, University of South Australia

Fun, sex, Renoir and a reckoning might be a succinct way to introduce the new play by David Williamson, The Puzzle. As Williamson noted to me in the foyer, “life would be pretty boring without sex”. However, he writes, in the production program that this comes with a proviso that licentiousness without any moral grounding can lead to human beings inadvertently “upending their lives”.

In other words: be grateful for what you’re got.

Just last month New Wave Australian playwright Jack Hibberd passed away. Hibberd, in writing one of his best-known works, Dimboola (that Williamson directed for the Pram Factory in 1973), spoke of needing to find a human ritual by putting two competing families together in his rural comedy.

Williamson, of the same generation of playwrights, similarly has pointed out “the essence of drama – [is] you put people in a room that should never be in a room together and things happen”.

While Hibberd found this in a country wedding, Williamson has found it, in this instance, in a holiday cruise that appeals as a “lifestyle” change.

Post-COVID has seen an increase in holiday cruises. Though there are comparatively small offerings of adult only cruises euphemistically titled “lifestyle cruises” (or, to be blunter, swingers cruises), they are subject to increasing demand from both young and old.

A lively production

The play’s title is taken from the large Renoir jigsaw puzzle found in the games room of a cruise ship that brings together those wanting to shake up their monotonous lives.

Of course, this becomes a metaphor for how the middle-aged negotiate themes of sexual boredom, polygamy and parenthood. With shades of Williamson’s earlier satirical get-together Don’s Party (1971), the ensemble expertly navigate the promises that “swinging” might do to enliven their character’s sex lives, trapped as they are in close proximity to each other.

This is a lively production with uniformly good performances. Erik Thomson plays Drew, the father trying to improve his relationship with his daughter and provides a solid anchor for the promiscuousness that occurs around him. Ahunim Abebe brings rhythmic physicality to his daughter Cassie as she shocks the father with her own sexual adventures.

The two would-be swinging couples bring verve and vivacity to their performances. Chris Asimos delights as Brian who flips from depression to reinforced post coital vitality. Anna Lindner brings a refreshing groove as she sashays around the cruise ship as Brian’s wife, Michele.

Ansuya Nathan’s Mandy provides a moral counterpoint as her character struggles with the concept of swinging, while her onstage partner Craig, played by Nathan O’Keefe, provides both earnestness and excellent comic timing. At one point during the night O’Keefe toasts his glass too hard and loses his slice of lemon on the floor – which he promptly sucks on to the great amusement of the audience. Clearly an accident, but perhaps worth keeping.

Steady chuckles

Shannon Rush directs with panache, providing some excellent moments of physical vignettes interlaced with the increasing sexual frisson, accompanied by brisk and sharp lighting from Mark Shelton. This in turn is ably supported by the 70s-style guitar soundtrack from composer Andrew Howard and sound designer Patrick Pages-Oliver.

Williamson alludes to the garish décor found aboard cruise ships and Ailsa Paterson’s design doesn’t disappoint. She makes spectacular use of colour and proportion that beckons with promises of a new adventure.

The multi-layered set features tables and chairs with retro 70s/80s feel. The backdrop is a stylised view of the horizon changing with time passing – this is in the form of the Renoir style of brush stroke, neatly linking it to the jigsaw we see being slowly completed.

The play draws steady chuckles and the occasional guffaw as Williamson builds the expectations of the passengers. In the second half, naturalism gives way to farce as the characters experience both comic and life changing reversals. This comes with the moral reckoning of the unintended consequences intercouple sex may bring.

Williamson’s capacity to introduce ideas and return to them in new ways in the dialogue demonstrates his expert craft in constructing witty and challenging dialogue.

This grand old man of Australian theatre shows his continual insight and capacity to satirise the middle-class.

Kudos should also go to outgoing artistic director Mitchell Butel who had the foresight to see the potential in the finished script submitted by Williamson, followed by further development between playwright and company to bring the play to the stage.

The playwright, actors and director gain much from being able to work together over a period of time.

Like the new wave of the 1970s, artists don’t grow in isolation but blossom within a supportive community. In this instance a community Butel has fostered, evident in another fine offering.

The Puzzle is at the State Theatre Company South Australia, Adelaide, until October 12.

Russell Fewster co-ordinates the 2nd year course: State Theatre Masterclass in the Performing Arts Major at the University of South Australia. This is a collaboration between the State Theatre of SA and the University of South Australia.

– ref. With The Puzzle, David Williamson shows his continual capacity to satirise the middle-class – https://theconversation.com/with-the-puzzle-david-williamson-shows-his-continual-capacity-to-satirise-the-middle-class-239195

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate O’Reilly, Director International (Programs & Engagement) | Lecturer School of Nursing and Midwifery, Western Sydney University

After hearing about the experiences of the diverse spectrum of people across Australia, the Senate inquiry into issues relating to menopause and perimenopause has released its final report with 25 recommendations.

The first recommendation is to establish a comprehensive evidence base to better understand the experiences of under-served groups, including LGBTQIA+ people and women with disability.

Gaps in knowledge of menopause can be significant barriers to diagnosis and treatment. More than 85% of people with distressing menopause symptoms do not receive appropriate care. These barriers can be compounded for people, women and those presumed female at birth who have a disability and/or are LGBTQIA+.

Here’s what we know so far about how people from diverse groups experience menopause and the health-care gaps they face.

Remind me, what is menopause?

Generally menopause is experienced across three phases.

Perimenopause (meaning around menopause) starts when hormones, particularly oestrogen, fluctuate.

Menopause occurs when a person has their final menstrual period. These stop because the person’s ovaries no longer release eggs. This definition reflects the different ways menopause can occur (natural menopause, premature ovarian insufficiency, surgery or cancer treatment).

Post-menopause is the stage after menopause marking the end of the reproductive stage.

We experience it differently

Everyone’s experience of menopause is different. People living with disability can experience unique symptoms and challenges.

Autistic people, for example, may describe the experience of menopause as turbulent or catastrophic. Symptoms for this group include intensified sensory stimuli and increased difficulty with:

• executive functioning (planning, concentrating and multitasking)
• recognising or regulating emotions and internal body cues
• communication
• socialising.

As one research participant explained:

[O]ur society doesn’t talk about, address, understand women our age (menopausal onset) in general very well. And so when you have the added dimension of autism […] there’s no resource […] to tell me how to handle that. And there’s no room in society for it either […] we don’t talk about menopause, let alone autistic menopause.

LGBTQIA+ experiences of menopause and ageing are diverse and are often absent in media, health care and research.

For some trans and gender diverse people, menopause can be positive and affirming. For others, the distress can be profound. As one research participant explained:

Personally I was fine (gender-identity-wise) with experiencing periods and pregnancy/childbirth, but I have found menopause much more conceptually difficult. I think in large part because the social narrative is so much about ‘menopausal women’ and also often denigratory or shame-laden.

Barriers to menopause diagnosis and care

LGBTQIA+ people and people with a disability can face assumptions about their gender, sexuality or anatomy which interfere with the care they require.

When people have had prior negative experiences of health care, and have experienced stigmatisation and pathologising of their disability, intersex variations, diverse gender or their sexuality, they may delay accessing care for menopause. Such a delay can result in poorer physical and mental health outcomes.

People with disability can experience earlier menopause with more profound symptoms. And as Women with Disabilities Australia highlighted, when there are pre-existing health concerns, impairments, or other support needs, as is the case with disability, menopause symptom management can be particularly complex.

Women living with a disability in Australia are far less likely to access health care due to stigma and lack of specialist care. They are not always screened for or routinely asked about their reproductive or menopausal health experiences.

Lack of clinician education and provider bias can result in a tendency to either ignore menopausal symptoms or attribute them to mental health concerns. This can lead to misdiagnosis, inappropriate treatment or a complete denial of care for cisgender women and people who live with disability, and LGBTQIA+ folk.

The absence of inclusive, accurate language in health promotion information that does not recognise the diversity of experiences of menopause for people who identify as LGBTQIA+ or live with disability can make them more vulnerable to misinformation and contribute to increased health-care disparities.

What can we do about it?

Policy responses to reducing health-care disparities must be led by those with lived experience, and focus on:

Inclusive and accurate language

Language around menopause should reflect the diverse populations who experience it. Terms such as women and those presumed female at birth can be used to acknowledge trans and gender diverse folk, however all identities should be listed where possible.

Education

Undergraduate and postgraduate university and clinical education on menopause and perimenopause is lacking and should include the lived experience of menopause among diverse groups. This may reduce provider bias and prevent assumptions that could result in missed care and poor health outcomes.

At the individual level, content on menopause should be included in sexual health education programs in schools. This education should reflect the diverse experiences of menopause and use age-appropriate language.

Affirming and specific care

Welcoming clinical environments for LGBTQIA+ people who may have had prior negative experiences can ease past concerns. Peer-led credentialed online support networks can provide alternative and complementary safe spaces to seek care.

For people living with disability specific information for support workers and family carers can help facilitate ongoing affirming care.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How do women with disability and LGBTQIA+ people experience menopause? – https://theconversation.com/how-do-women-with-disability-and-lgbtqia-people-experience-menopause-239485

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Culum Brown, Professor, Macquarie University

A new study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution lifts the veil on what happens when octopuses and fish hunt together. As it turns out, this cross-species relationship is more complex than anyone expected.

Animals of the same species often cooperate – work together to reach some kind of goal. But it’s relatively rare to find cooperation between individuals from different species.

A classic example you’ll be familiar with is the close relationship between dogs and humans, whether in the context of herding sheep or hunting. In these situations, the dog and the human work together to achieve a goal.

That’s mammals. But underwater species also sometimes cooperate. A nice example is the joint hunting behaviour of moray eels and grouper. The grouper approaches the moray and signals that it wishes to hunt. The eel responds in kind, and off they go.

During these hunting forays, the grouper uses signals to indicate where prey may be hidden in the coral matrix. It’s a synergy made in heaven: the eel can scare the prey fish from hiding places among the coral, while the grouper patrols over the top. There is literally no place for prey to hide.

For the eels and grouper, the chances of catching their dinner are greatly improved when hunting together compared to hunting on their own.

Who’s in charge here?

While researchers have described these behaviours before, one question remains unanswered. Who, exactly, is in charge of these cross-species interactions?

Who decides what they are going to do, where and when? Are the different players “democratic”, in that they come to some form of compromise, or does one species take the lead and the other simply follows (that is, they are “despotic”)?

In an international collaboration, biologist Eduardo Sampaio and colleagues have investigated cross-species interactions between the usually solitary day octopus (Octopus cyanea) and several fish species, such as goatfish and groupers.

The fish and the octopus share a common goal – to increase their hunting efficiency. The traditional view of octopus-fish hunting groups assumed that the octopus is the producer, and the fish simply follow along and opportunistically pick up the scraps.

With its long, flexible arms, the octopus explores all the nooks and crannies of the hunting ground, flushing out prey the fish can then take advantage of. In this scenario, the octopus would be solely in charge of decisions and the fish just follow (that is, it’s an exploitative, despotic relationship).

However, when researchers took a closer look, it appeared perhaps this relationship is not as simplistic as previously believed. But without fine-scale analysis providing hard evidence, it is difficult to work out the precise details of how this cooperation works.

What did the new study find?

Using sophisticated behavioural analyses of 3D videos captured from 120 hours of diving, Sampaio and team found that each partner in the interaction plays a specific role. There was, in fact, no true leader – they are democratic.

The fish were responsible for exploring the environment and deciding where to move, while the octopus would decide if and when to move. Interestingly, controlled experiments showed the octopuses were guided by social information provided by the fishes.

When partnered with blue goatfish, the octopus foraging tactics where more focused and efficient. When partnered with blacktip groupers, they were less so. So, the nature of the hunting relationship varied depending on who’s involved.

The researchers concluded that, overall, success rates for capturing prey were higher for the octopus when foraging with fishy partners.

The details revealed by this study suggest this relationship is far more sophisticated than other cross-species hunting associations examined to date.

Despite the huge evolutionary gap between these animals (the equivalent of about 550 million years), both fish and octopus show clear signs of social competence and advanced cognition.

Culum Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Octopuses work together with fish to hunt – and the way they share decisions is surprisingly complex – https://theconversation.com/octopuses-work-together-with-fish-to-hunt-and-the-way-they-share-decisions-is-surprisingly-complex-239723

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elaine Reese, Professor of Psychology, University of Otago

Children’s literacy rates are falling around the globe. In response, a number of governments, including New Zealand’s, are overhauling the way reading is taught in primary school.

One key change is a renewed focus on phonics (mapping sounds to letters).

But an overemphasis on phonics could dampen children’s motivation to read for enjoyment and understanding.

In my new book, I show how important it is to foster a love of books and stories in young children if they are to become lifelong readers.

The science of reading

Reading isn’t natural for humans. Instead, it is a recent skill in our evolutionary history.

Today, children’s lifelong academic and occupational success depends on becoming literate.

Learning to read in English is devilishly difficult. Many words that sound the same are spelled differently (team and teem, for example) and the same group of letters can be pronounced differently (dough versus through).

Most reading scientists and teachers agree direct instruction in letter-sound relationships (phonics) is necessary for children to become readers. Skilled reading also involves comprehending the meaning of words.

But because reading is difficult and requires practice, children must also want to put in the time and effort needed to become a fluent reader.

This motivation to read begins much earlier than the first day of school.

Reading instruction needs to connect with the ingrained human love of oral stories if it is to turn into a love of reading.

Growing a love of books

Children’s love of the sounds, melodies and emotions in stories is innate and has existed throughout human history. Hunter-gatherer tribes with a higher per capita rate of storytellers were more likely to thrive.

In my book, I drew on findings from Growing Up in New Zealand, Aotearoa’s largest longitudinal study of child health and wellbeing. I also included the latest data from Origins of Language and Memory of New Zealand children – the longest-running study in the world of children’s story development.

My findings highlight the critical role that families play in turning a love of oral stories into a love of books.

Although a love of stories starts in the womb, most parents wait until their babies are born to start reading books to them.

To successfully share a picture book with a baby, the adult needs to follow the infant’s gaze and react to what is on the page, then wait to let the baby take a turn – whether through a coo, a look or a smack of the book.

At this tender age, the goal is to establish a book-sharing routine and enjoy back-and-forth “stories” rather than to get through a whole book.

In the toddler years, stories begin to flow more fluidly. Toddlers who have experienced stories from books and conversations will initiate stories readily with an adult, either by talking about a recent event or by bringing their favourite book to read together.

If these conversations are responsive, both types of stories strengthen children’s language, literacy, and social and emotional development.

In the preschool years, children with consistent book-sharing and reminiscing routines will acquire advanced skills including abstract vocabulary, print concepts, awareness of the sounds of words and understanding of characters’ emotions and actions. They are also able to link stories from books to their own lives.

All these skills are critical for their later reading success.

Time to read

Even children with this solid foundation may find it challenging to learn to read in the first year of school.

The goal is to help them “crack the code” (mapping sounds to letters) as quickly as possible. Only then will a child be able to integrate their knowledge and love of stories with the sounds of words on a page.

For this leap to happen, a child must want to read on their own. Children with a rich story bank will be able to push past the difficulty of decoding to reading for understanding and enjoyment.

Phonics is a necessary step in the lifelong timescale of literacy development. Yet, according to reading expert Sebastian Suggate, early reading instruction with a child who doesn’t love stories or books is like sowing seeds on parched earth.

For children to become successful readers, we need to enrich the soil by instilling a love of stories and books in the first five years of life and beyond — long after the phonics work is finished.

Elaine Reese has received funding from the Marsden Fund of the Royal Society of New Zealand.

– ref. Fostering a love of stories in a child’s first years is key to lifelong reading – https://theconversation.com/fostering-a-love-of-stories-in-a-childs-first-years-is-key-to-lifelong-reading-239495

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natalie Gately, Associate Professor, Edith Cowan University

In Australia and most countries, everyone is innocent until proven guilty. Because of this, keeping someone in detention before trial comes with serious legal, practical and human-rights consequences, not just for the person accused but also for their family and for society.

That’s why most people accused of a crime are usually released on bail.

Bail is essentially a written promise where a person is released, on the agreement they return to court on a set date. It can also be granted to those who have been found or pleaded guilty while they wait for sentencing.

Bail allows the accused to keep their job, maintain their home, and support their family, while eliminating the costs of imprisonment.

However, bail comes with conditions that the person must follow, including curfews, regular check-ins, restrictions on whom they can talk to or where they can go, drug or alcohol testing, and staying at a specific address.

These conditions may seem easy to understand and follow, but breaches of orders were the third most common offence in Australian courts in 2022 and 2023. They made up 10% of adult court appearances, using valuable time and resources.

There’s a widespread belief that people on bail who breach their conditions commit more crimes – sometimes violent ones – that put others at risk and threaten public safety. This has fuelled demands for stricter bail laws or to stop granting bail altogether.

Many also think that when someone breaches their bail conditions, it’s because they’re deliberately defying or ignoring the rules. With this in mind, we wanted to look deeper.

We spoke to 230 police detainees about what led to their bail breaches. The results were surprising: very few (just 11%) breached by committing new offences.

Instead, most explained their breaches happened because of things beyond their control.

Homelessness

A fixed residential address is a fundamental condition for getting bail.

However, many of our participants shared that becoming homeless or returning to homelessness was common for them. Some said they left the address they provided because of family tensions:

I’m meant to stay at my sister’s house under my bail conditions, it’s for my curfew […] she kicked me out because we had an argument. Now I’ve breached my conditions and have nowhere to go.

It’s well known that chronic homelessness makes it tough to comply with bail conditions, and we found the same. A detainee told us:

It was an honest mistake and a mix-up of the days.

Another said:

I was homeless at the time I was meant to go to court and dealing with a lot.

A third person told us:

I’m homeless and I’ve got bigger issues than going to court. I’m living in a tent in the park at the moment with no job.

The mental stress meant people focused on meeting basic needs such as food and shelter, which took priority over following bail conditions.

Family responsibilities

Participants also shared their personal responsibilities of caring for sick children, parents or other dependants. This often prevented them from attending court or reporting. One person told us:

I’m my nan’s carer […] I needed to look after her and my brother wasn’t there. I couldn’t go to court or make it. I’m the one who washes her and does everything for her […]

Family commitments clashing with reporting requirements led to feelings that the system was stacked against them and they had few options but to breach.

Work commitments

Employment often interfered with reporting on time and attending court.

I have to report Monday, Wednesday and Friday but I’m a truck driver. I have no problems with coming in to report, but I couldn’t make it because I was working. When I went in to report, they arrested me […]

Keeping a job is crucial for financial and housing stability. Having a stable job also deepens community connections to reduce the chances of getting involved in criminal activity.

Procedural barriers

When these kinds of everyday issues derailed compliance, many said they had tried to let the court, police or their lawyer know, either before or right after they missed reporting in or a court date but were faced with an inflexible system.

For some, even when they did manage to get through, they were told that by not reporting or attending court they had already breached their bail and a warrant would be issued for their arrest. A study participant told us:

I told them (the police) that I’d been kicked out (of the nominated accommodation) and wasn’t there and they locked me up here. I’ve got an extra charge now because I breached bail and probably won’t get let back out tomorrow. It wasn’t in my control. I was meant to be doing my medical to start work on the mines too tomorrow, so I won’t be working there now.

We recommend considering of the complexities of bailees’ lives when setting bail. More flexible reporting conditions for when “life happens” will reduce charge pile ups and pressures on the criminal justice.

Natalie Gately received funding from Western Australian Office of Crime Statistics and Research for this project.

Suzanne Rock received funding from Western Australian Office of Crime Statistics and Research for this project.

– ref. Why do people breach their bail? Our research shows it’s not because they’re committing more crimes – https://theconversation.com/why-do-people-breach-their-bail-our-research-shows-its-not-because-theyre-committing-more-crimes-239198

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sungshin (Luna) Bae, PhD student, Gender Equality Policy Special Public Officer at the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office in South Korea, Monash University

It’s difficult to talk about artificial intelligence without talking about deepfake porn – a harmful AI byproduct that has been used to target everyone from Taylor Swift to Australian school girls.

But a recent report from startup Security Heroes found that out of 95,820 deepfake porn videos analysed from different sources, 53% featured South Korean singers and actresses – suggesting this group is disproportionately targeted.

So, what’s behind South Korea’s deepfake problem? And what can be done about it?

Teenagers and minors among victims

Deepfakes are digitally manipulated photos, video or audio files that convincingly depict someone saying or doing things they never did. Among South Korean teenagers, creating deepfakes has become so common that some even view it as a prank. And they don’t just target celebrities.

On Telegram, group chats have been made for the specific purpose of engaging in image-based sexual abuse of women, including middle-school and high-school students, teachers and family members. Women who have their pictures on social media platforms such as KakaoTalk, Instagram and Facebook are also frequently targeted.

The perpetrators use AI bots to generate the fake imagery, which is then sold and/or indiscriminately disseminated, along with victims’ social media accounts, phone numbers and KakaoTalk usernames. One Telegram group attracted some 220,000 members, according to a Guardian report.

A lack of awareness

Despite gender-based violence causing significant harm to victims in South Korea, there remains a lack of awareness on the issue.

South Korea has experienced rapid technological growth in recent decades. It ranks first in the world in smartphone ownership and is cited as having the highest internet connectivity. Many jobs, including those in restaurants, manufacturing and public transport, are being rapidly replaced by robots and AI.

But as Human Rights Watch points out, the country’s progress in gender equality and other human rights measures has not kept pace with digital advancement. And research has shown that technological progress can actually exacerbate issued of gender-based violence.

Since 2019, digital sex crimes against children and adolescents in South Korea have been a huge issue – particularly due to the “Nth Room” case. This case involved hundreds of young victims (many of whom were minors) and around 260,000 participants engaged in sharing exploitative and coercive intimate content.

The case triggered widespread outrage and calls for stronger protection. It even led to the establishment of stronger conditions in the Act on Special Cases Concerning the Punishment of Sexual Crimes 2020. But despite this, the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office said only 28% of the total 17,495 digital sex offenders caught in 2021 were indicted — highlighting the ongoing challenges in effectively addressing digital sex crimes.

In 2020, the Ministry of Justice’s Digital Sexual Crimes Task Force proposed about 60 legal provisions, which have still not been accepted. The team was disbanded shortly after the inauguration of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s government in 2022.

During the 2022 presidential race, Yoon said “there is no structural gender discrimination” in South Korea and pledged to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, the main ministry responsible for preventing gender-based violence. This post has remained vacant since February of this year.

Can technology also be the solution?

But AI isn’t always harmful – and South Korea provides proof of this too. In 2022, a digital sex crime support centre run by the Seoul metropolitan government developed a tool that can automatically track, monitor and delete deepfake images and videos around the clock.

The technology – which won the 2024 UN Public Administration Prize – has helped reduce the time taken to find deepfakes from an average of two hours to three minutes. But while such attempts can help reduce further harm from deepfakes, they are unlikely to be an exhaustive solutions, as effects on victims can be persistent.

For meaningful change, the government needs to hold service providers such as social media platforms and messaging apps accountable for ensuring user safety.

Unified efforts

On August 30, the South Korean government announced plans to push for legislation to criminalise the possession, purchase and viewing of deepfakes in South Korea.

However, investigations and trials may continue to fall short until deepfakes in South Korea are recognised as a harmful form of gender-based violence. A multifaceted approach will be needed to address the deepfake problem, including stronger laws, reform and education.

South Korean authorities must also help to enhance public awareness of gender-based violence, and focus not only on supporting victims, but on developing proactive policies and educational programs to prevent violence in the first place.

Sungshin (Luna) Bae does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. AI is fuelling a deepfake porn crisis in South Korea. What’s behind it – and how can it be fixed? – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-fuelling-a-deepfake-porn-crisis-in-south-korea-whats-behind-it-and-how-can-it-be-fixed-238217

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Anenburg, Research Fellow in Earth Sciences, Australian National University

Extinct volcanoes are hard to study – we never see them erupt. Using a unique experimental technique, we were able to recreate a certain type of extinct volcano in a lab, learning more about the magma these volcanoes produce.

We found that some rare magma types are surprisingly efficient at concentrating rare earth elements. This is a group of metals with crucial applications in several high-tech industries, such as magnets for electric vehicles and wind turbines.

Demand for rare earths is soaring as society moves away from fossil fuels and electrifies energy production and transport. Despite the name, rare earths aren’t particularly rare. The biggest challenge is finding rocks in which these metals are concentrated enough to be economically viable to extract.

Our new research, published in the journal Geochemical Perspectives Letters, shows certain extinct volcanoes are a great place to look.

Iron-rich magma in extinct volcanoes

There is an enigmatic type of magma that contains unusually large amounts of iron. It is so rare, no eruptions featuring this type of magma have happened in recorded history.

Instead, it is only known from extinct volcanoes that were active many millions of years ago.

The most famous example of such a volcano is El Laco in Chile. Another notable example is Kiruna in Sweden, mined for iron ore for many decades. Last year, its operating company LKAB announced Kiruna as the largest rare earths resource in Europe.

The discovery at Kiruna made us (and many others) wonder why there would be a rare earth resource at a volcanic iron mine. We already know of many other rock types containing rare earths, and none of them are like Kiruna and other extinct iron-rich volcanoes.

Was this just a geological serendipity, or is there something inherent to iron-rich magmas that make them rare-earth rich, too? After all, many of those iron-rich extinct volcanoes are known, but no one ever bothered to check whether they have a rare earth resource in them.

Additionally, iron-rich rocks are often easy to find because of their strong magnetic signal, despite their rarity. Should they be added to the target list of rare earth explorers?

Recreating volcanism in a bottle

To test this hypothesis, we used a machine called a piston cylinder. We put synthetic material akin to volcanic rocks and magmas into small capsules or “bottles” made of noble metals such as platinum. We then pressurised them to depths equivalent to 15 kilometres deep in Earth’s crust and heated them up to 1,100°C, melting them into a liquid.

At these extreme conditions, we found the iron-rich magma exists as bubbles inside a more common magma type known from virtually all modern active volcanoes. The iron-rich magma absorbs rare earths from the surrounding liquid.

These iron-rich bubbles will have a different density and viscosity, and will separate from their iron-poor environment, similar to how water and oil mixed together will eventually separate into distinct layers.

Iron-rich magmas absorb the rare earths so efficiently, their rare earth contents are almost 200 times greater than the regular magmas around them.

This means the discovery at Kiruna wasn’t an accident. It’s something we can expect from most, if not all, iron-rich volcanoes.

Why do we need more rare earth deposits?

Production of rare earth elements is concentrated in just a handful of countries – mostly China, along with the United States, Myanmar and Australia.

Rare earths are therefore classified as “critical minerals”: they have important uses, but suffer from a supply chain risk due to geopolitical factors.

As demand for rare earths has surged, this has led to substantial investment in research and exploration for additional deposits. The more deposits are known, the better industry can pick deposits that will yield rare earths at the lowest financial, environmental and societal cost.

Extinct iron-rich volcanoes are often mined for iron ore. Our results indicate existing mines at such locations can potentially be modified to produce rare earths as well.

This would be a positive outcome – an existing mining operation can gain additional value. In some cases, mine waste can be reprocessed to extract these critical metals. This would mean new mines for rare earth elements may not even be required, preventing unnecessary disruption of natural environments.

Michael Anenburg receives funding from the Australian Research Council for an Industry Fellowship co-funded by BHP Olympic Dam.

– ref. Humanity needs more rare earth elements. Extinct volcanoes could be a rich new source – https://theconversation.com/humanity-needs-more-rare-earth-elements-extinct-volcanoes-could-be-a-rich-new-source-239410

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Zomer, Associate Research Fellow at the Centre of the Digital Child, Deakin University

This article is part of a series on the great internet letdown. Read the rest of the series.

Ever found yourself unable to resist checking out a social media notification? Or sending a random picture just to keep a Snapchat “streak” going? Or simply getting stuck staring at YouTube because it auto-played yet another cute cat video?

If so, you’re far from alone. And if we adults can’t resist such digital temptations, how can we expect children to do any better?

Many digital environments are not designed with the best interest of users in mind – and this is especially true of games, apps and platforms commonly used by kids and teens.

Designers use persuasive design techniques to make users spend more time on apps or platforms, so they can make more money selling ads. Below, we explain some of the most common design tricks used in popular games, social media and apps.

Decision-making made easy 🔀

Social media and streaming platforms strive to provide “seamless” user experiences. This makes it easy to stay engaged without needing to click anything very often, which also minimises any obvious opportunities where we might disengage.

These seamless experiences include things such as auto-play when streaming videos, or “infinite scrolling” on social media. When algorithms present us with a steady flow of content, shaped by what we have liked or engaged with in the past, we must put in extra effort to stop watching. Unsurprisingly, we often decide to stay put.

Rewards and dopamine hits 🧠

Another way to keep children engaged is by using rewards, such as stars, diamonds, stickers, badges or other “points” in children’s apps. “Likes” on social media are no different.

Rewards trigger the release of a chemical in our brains – dopamine – which not only makes us feel good but also leaves us wanting more.

Rewards can be used to promote good behaviour, but not always. In some children’s apps, rewards are doubled if users watch advertisements.

Loot boxes and ‘gambling’ 💰

Variable rewards have been found to be especially effective. When you do not know when you will get a certain reward or desired item, you are more likely to keep going.

In games, variable rewards can often be found (or purchased) in the form of “loot boxes”. Loot boxes might be chests, treasures, or stacks of cards containing a random reward. Because of the unpredictable reward, some researchers have described loot boxes as akin to gambling, even though the games do not always involve real money.

Sometimes in-game currency (fake game money) can be bought with real money and used to “gamble” for rare characters and special items. This is very tempting for young people.

In one of our (as yet unpublished) studies, a 12-year-old student admitted to spending several hundred dollars to obtain a desired character in the popular game Genshin Impact.

The lure of streaks 🔥

Another problematic way of using rewards in design is negative reinforcement. For instance, when you are at risk of a negative outcome (like losing something good), you feel compelled to continue a particular behaviour.

“Streaks” work like this. If you do not do the same task for several days in a row, you will not get the extra rewards promised. Language learning app DuoLingo uses streaks, but so does Snapchat, a popular social media app. Research has shown a correlation between Snapchat streaks and problematic smartphone use among teens.

Streaks can also make money for apps directly. If you miss a day and lose your streak, you can often pay to restore it.

Loss of reputation 👎

Reputation is important on social media. Think of the number of Facebook friends you have, or the number of likes your post receives.

Sometimes designers build on our fear of losing our reputation. For instance, they can do this by adding a leaderboard that ranks users based on their score.

While you may have heard of the use of leaderboards in games, they are also common in popular educational apps such as Kahoot! or Education Perfect. Leaderboards introduce an element of competition that many students enjoy.

However, for some this competition has negative consequences – especially for those languishing low in the ranks.

Similarly, Snapchat has a SnapScore where reputational loss is still at play. You do not want a lower score than your friends! This makes you want to keep using the app.

Exploiting feelings of connection 🥰

Another tool in the designers’ bag of tricks is capitalising on the emotional ties or connections users form with influencers or celebrities on social media, or favourite media characters (such as Elmo or Peppa pig) for younger children.

While these connections can foster a sense of belonging, they can also be exploited for commercial gain, such as when influencers promote commercial products, or characters urge in-app purchases.

What can parents do? 🤷

Persuasive design isn’t inherently bad. Users want apps and games to be engaging, like we do for movies or TV shows. However, some design “tricks” simply serve commercial interests, often at the expense of users’ wellbeing.

It is not all bleak, though. Here are a few steps parents can take to help kids stay on top of the apps:

• have early and ongoing discussions with children about ideas such as the underlying commercial intent of what they are engaging with

• model good digital choices of not giving in to persuasive design, such as by avoiding digital distractions yourself

• use trustworthy resources to help in digital decision-making, such as Common Sense Media and Dark Pattern Games.

For the moment, the responsibility for managing children’s interactions with the digital realm falls largely on individuals and families.

Some governments are beginning to take action, but measures such as blanket age-based bans on social media or other platforms will only shield children temporarily. A better approach for governments and regulators would be to focus on safety by design: the idea that the safety and rights of users should be the starting point of any app, product or service, rather than an afterthought.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The design tricks keeping your kids hooked on games and apps – and 3 things you can do about it – https://theconversation.com/the-design-tricks-keeping-your-kids-hooked-on-games-and-apps-and-3-things-you-can-do-about-it-239493

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darryn Snell, Associate professor, School of Management, RMIT University

Oil and gas wells are dotted off Australia’s shores. They involve huge steel structures fixed firmly to the sea floor, and thousands of kilometres of pipelines.

Most of Australia’s offshore oil and gas projects will be decommissioned in the next 30 years – some in the next decade. An estimated 5.7 million tonnes of material will need to be removed – the equivalent of 110 Sydney harbour bridges.

Australia desperately needs the skills and equipment to conduct these complex decommissioning operations. The Albanese government says a high-capacity decommissioning facility is required by the early 2030s. At present, no such facilities exist.

We hope the nation welcomes the opportunity to build a new multi-billion dollar demolition and recycling industry, with skilled jobs for workers. Rather than letting companies abandon structures for so-called “artificial reefs”.

What would a decommissioning industry look like?

Australia has two main offshore oil and gas producing areas: the North West Shelf in Western Australia and the Bass Strait off Gippsland, Victoria.

WA and the Northern Territory have 35 platforms, 11 floating facilities and 6,076km of pipelines offshore. Victoria has 22 platforms and 2,089km of pipelines. Altogether, more than a thousand wells will need to be plugged and abandoned.

Many of these facilities have already reached the end of their lives, or soon will. Less demand for fossil fuels in the future means we don’t need to refurbish or extend them. The only other option is to decommission them.

Federal law requires the complete removal of offshore oil and gas infrastructure and plugging of wells, unless companies can come up with a better option.

About 60% of the material requiring removal is steel, which could be recycled. A further 25% is concrete. The remainder includes plastics, hazardous metals and naturally occurring radioactive materials.

But decommissioning is expensive, complex and time consuming, and the weak regulations are poorly enforced. Companies often present proposals that fail to meet community expectations.

The Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility argues “further regulation is needed to ensure greater transparency, disclosure, and public consultation on decommissioning”.

The Albanese government has been developing a plan for a decommissioning industry in Australia. It would be worth A$60 billion over the next 30 to 50 years.

The industry would reclaim the materials and transport them to dismantling yards, for safe sorting and recycling. It would create highly skilled jobs, many of which overlap with skills needed for building offshore wind farms. These include:

• electricians and mechanical fitters
• specialist engineering roles
• various management and contract management roles
• health, safety and environmental specialists
• specialist offshore operators, including for cranes and drilling activities.

Currently only a few countries such as Norway and Turkiye have such dedicated decommissioning industries. Some also accept materials from oil and gas fields further afield. Scottish oil and gas rigs, for example, were controversially transported to Turkiye for dismantling and recycling in 2022-23.

Plenty of work to be done

In Gippsland, there may be ways to decommission not just offshore oil and gas, but also coal-fired power stations in the Latrobe Valley, which are scheduled to close in coming years.

Some 30,000 tonnes of steel and 65,000m³ of asbestos was removed when Hazelwood Power Station was demolished. A further 100,000 tonnes of steel and 100,000 tonnes of concrete was recycled.

Much recycling work was done on site. This provided more than 1.1 million hours of work employment badly needed in a region that had lost one of its largest employers.

The WA state government allocated $5 million to a local decommissioning industry in its 2022-23 budget. This funds the Centre of Decommissioning Australia’s research, including a study investigating how to develop a dismantling hub in WA.

Unfortunately, Victoria has not shown similar interest. This is despite decommissioning work by Esso in Bass Strait raising ongoing community concerns. They relate to the marine environment, human safety – for fishing, beach and tourism activities – and the loss of other potential industry and job opportunities.

Whether to remove oil and gas structures or leave them in place is hotly debated. Some people argue the structures should be left to serve as artificial reefs. Others say the material is dangerous and potentially toxic.

Given the immense size and number of oil and gas platforms around the world, a lot of material could be left to decay in the oceans with unknown consequences.

Challenges and opportunities

Renewable energy promises to create jobs and revitalise many fossil-fuel dependent regions. Setting up a decommissioning industry in the oil and gas regions of WA and Victoria would provide further opportunities during the transition.

Ideally, the decommissioning process would deliver positive social and environmental benefits, not just cost savings. But that requires managing decommissioning as part of policies aimed at supporting workers and communities to adjust to a low carbon economy.

The Future Made in Australia policy, for instance, could consider including support for a decommissioning industry.

Regulations for decommissioning of oil and gas infrastructure must be strengthened. Environmental groups and unions are increasingly campaigning for these changes. Australia’s oil and gas companies are powerful and will likely resist further regulation.

Abandoning oil and gas infrastructure on the ocean floor would result in lost opportunities for regions, communities and workers. It would also set a precedent for the dumping of yet more industrial waste into the ocean.

We must get decommissioning right. Otherwise, it may prove another environmental harm imposed on the planet by the oil and gas industry.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Where do we stash the equivalent of 110 Sydney harbour bridges? That’s the conundrum Australia faces as oil and gas rigs close – https://theconversation.com/where-do-we-stash-the-equivalent-of-110-sydney-harbour-bridges-thats-the-conundrum-australia-faces-as-oil-and-gas-rigs-close-235867

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute

Opposition leader Peter Dutton has revealed the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan relies on many of Australia’s coal-fired power stations running for at least another 12 years – far beyond the time frame officials expect the ageing facilities to last.

The claim has set off a new round of speculation over the Coalition’s plans – the viability of which has already been widely questioned by energy analysts.

Dutton offered up limited detail in a speech on Monday. He also revealed the plan relies on ramping up Australia’s gas production.

It seems increasingly clear the Coalition’s nuclear policy would prolong Australia’s reliance on coal, at a time when the world is rapidly moving to cleaner sources of power.

Coal: old and tired

The Coalition wants to build nuclear reactors on the sites of closed coal plants. It says the first reactors could come online by the mid-2030s. However, independent analysis shows the earliest they could be built is the 2040s.

Now it appears the Coalition’s plan involves relying on coal to provide electricity while nuclear reactors are being built. On Monday, Dutton suggested coal-fired electricity would be available into the 2030s and ‘40s.

But this is an overly optimistic reading of coal’s trajectory. The Australian Energy Market Operator says 90% of coal-fired power in the National Electricity Market will close by 2035.

All this suggests the Coalition plans to extend the life of existing coal plants. But this is likely to cost money. Australia’s coal-fired power stations are old and unreliable – that’s why their owners want to shut them down. To keep plants open means potentially operating them at a loss, while having to invest in repairs and upgrades.

This is why coal plant owners sought, and received, payments from state governments to delay exits when the renewables rollout began falling behind schedule.

So who would wear the cost of delaying coal’s retirement? It might be energy consumers if state governments decide to recoup the costs via electricity bills. Or it could be taxpayers, through higher taxes, reduced services or increased government borrowing. In other words, we will all have to pay, just from different parts of our personal budgets.

Labor’s energy plan also relies on continued use of coal. Dutton pointed to moves by the New South Wales and Victorian governments to extend the life of coal assets in those states. For example, the NSW Labor government struck a deal with Origin to keep the Eraring coal station open for an extra two years, to 2027.

However, this is a temporary measure to keep the electricity system reliable because the renewables build is behind schedule. It is not a defining feature of the plan.

New transmission is essential under either plan

Dutton claims Labor’s renewable energy transition will require a massive upgrade to transmission infrastructure. The transmission network largely involves high-voltage lines and towers, and transformers.

He claims the Coalition can circumvent this cost by building nuclear power plants on seven sites of old coal-fired power stations, and thus use existing transmission infrastructure.

Labor’s shift to renewable energy does require new transmission infrastructure, to get electricity from far-flung wind and solar farms to towns and cities. It’s also true that building nuclear power stations at the site of former coal plants would, in theory, make use of existing transmission lines, although the owners of some of these sites have firmly declined the opportunity.

But even if the Coalition’s nuclear plan became a reality, new transmission infrastructure would be needed.

Australia’s electricity demand is set to surge in coming decades as we move to electrify our homes, transport and heavy industry. This will require upgrades to transmission infrastructure, because it will have to carry more electricity. Many areas of the network are already at capacity.

So in reality, both Labor’s and the Coalition’s policies are likely to require substantial spending on transmission.

Gas is not an easy answer

Both Labor and the Coalition acknowledge a big role for gas in their respective plans.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen says gas, along with storage, is needed to help back up to the grid, when solar and wind farms are not producing electricity.

Dutton spoke of plans “to ramp up domestic gas production” in the short term, “to get power prices down and restore stability to our grid” – presumably until nuclear comes online.

But the issue isn’t a lack of gas. It’s that the gas is in the wrong places. There’s a gas shortage because southern reserves are declining and all the gas production is in the north of the continent.

An increased role for gas means getting someone to pay for new infrastructure, such as pipelines or LNG terminals. That will make for expensive gas, and expensive gas means expensive electricity.

Many unanswered questions

It’s now three months since the Coalition released its nuclear strategy. Detail was thin then – and Monday’s speech shed little light.

Many unanswered questions remain – chief among them, costings of the nuclear plan, and how much of that will be born by government. CSIRO says a nuclear reactor would cost at least A$8.6 billion.

We also don’t know how the Coalition would acquire the sites, or get around nuclear bans in Queensland, NSW and Victoria.

We still don’t know how the Coalition plans to keep the lights on in the coming decade, as coal exits.

And crucially, we don’t know what it will cost households and businesses. It is unlikely to be cheap.

Alison Reeve does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. Since 2008, Grattan Institute has been supported in its work by government, corporations, and philanthropic gifts. A full list of supporters is published at www.grattan.edu.au.

– ref. Dutton’s nuclear plan would mean propping up coal for at least 12 more years – and we don’t know what it would cost – https://theconversation.com/duttons-nuclear-plan-would-mean-propping-up-coal-for-at-least-12-more-years-and-we-dont-know-what-it-would-cost-239720

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Who’d want to be Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock? On Tuesday she had to do the almost impossible: defend a decision not to cut interest rates at a time when they were being cut in just about every other major industrial nation.

On Thursday the US Federal Reserve joined the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and central banks in China, Sweden and the European Union in what its officials expect to be a series of cuts, kicking off with a double-header: a cut of 0.50 percentage points instead of the usual 0.25.

In her press conference after Tuesday’s board meeting Governor Bullock said disinflation was “further advanced” in those countries than it was in Australia.

Australian interest rates were “restrictive” (high enough to hurt) but were working “broadly as anticipated”.

While household spending was weaker than had been expected, it would be

some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.

But the problem with what she said, both after the meeting and in her statement, is inflation is probably already within the target range.

Credibility gap

The Reserve Bank’s target is 2-3%. Inflation hasn’t been there since it surged in 2021 as much of the world came out of lockdowns.

On Wednesday, the day after Bullock’s announcement, the Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly consumer price index for August. It’s expected to be the first to show inflation back between 2% and 3%.

Westpac is expecting an annual rate of 2.7%, comfortably back within the target band. When the more-comprehensive quarterly measure is released next month, Westpac is expecting 2.9%.

If inflation is 2.7%, how can it be too high?

Bullock squares her view that inflation is not yet moving sustainably towards the target with the reality that it is probably already there by saying she expects it to “pop back up again” when the temporary effect of electricity bill rebates wears off.

The Commonwealth government announced $3.5 billion worth of rebates in the May budget. They will be applied automatically to electricity bills for each of the next four quarters, and topped by several of the states. In Queensland, they amount to $1,300 per household.

A staged rollout means the rebates hit bills in only Queensland and West Australia in July and will hit other states in August. The Bureau of Statistics says they took 6.4% off the average national power price in July and Westpac expects them to take off a further 15% in August.

A permanent 10% increase in the maximum rate of Commonwealth rent assistance delivered last week will put further downward pressure on inflation.

It’s easy to see why Bullock thinks the temporary measures should be disregarded.

The RBA says what matters is underlying inflation

Bullock is directing attention to the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, a measure that excludes sharp movements and gives a better idea of where typical prices are heading.

At 3.9% for the year to the June quarter, she says that measure is still too high. But it has been falling for each of the past six quarters and is on track to fall to 3.5% in the September quarter. By my way of thinking, that shows inflation is moving “sustainably towards the target range” in the way she says she wants.

As in the US and the UK and New Zealand and all the other countries with which we compare ourselves, inflation doesn’t need to be actually back to the target before the authorities ease off on high interest rates. If they waited that long they would overshoot and push inflation too low.

But headline inflation matters in its own right

In any event, a low headline inflation rate is important in its own right, however it is achieved. It’s the rate the Reserve Bank prints at the top of its website, the rate that’s published in the media and the rate that people experience.

If inflation is actually low, however that is brought about, shoppers become less tolerant of price rises (something the Reserve Bank says is happening) and less keen to demand high wage rises (something that is also happening).

They also become less keen to rush out and buy things before their price goes up, something that can perpetuate high inflation.

Right now we are doing everything but rushing out to push up prices.

A briefing note prepared by the Australian Council of Social Service ahead of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank board meeting says real household disposable income per capita has fallen by almost 8% since inflation and interest rates began climbing, far more than in the US, the UK, Germany and Canada.

Bullock is about to get more chances to cut

There’s a chance the tax cuts that began in July will give spending a bit of a boost but much of whatever extra spending there is will be on imports, and the steadily climbing Australian dollar is making them cheaper by the day.

The Australian dollar hit a new high for the year of 68.5 US cents on Tuesday on the back of a widening differential between US and Australian interest rates as the US cuts rates.

Governor Bullock gets two more opportunities to cut rates this year, at the board meeting on Melbourne Cup Tuesday November 5 shortly after news of very low inflation in the September quarter, and on December 9 shortly after news of economic growth likely to show income per person going further backwards.

There’s a fair chance she will take one of them.

Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.

– ref. No RBA rate cut yet, but Governor Bullock is about to find the pressure overwhelming – https://theconversation.com/no-rba-rate-cut-yet-but-governor-bullock-is-about-to-find-the-pressure-overwhelming-239603

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Dahlen, Professor of Midwifery, Associate Dean Research and HDR, Midwifery Discipline Leader, Western Sydney University

A new study from Canada has found women who agree to carry and birth babies in surrogacy arrangements face a higher risk of complications than other pregnant women.

These women were at two to three times the risk of health problems such as postpartum haemorrhages and pre-eclampsia. They were also more likely to give birth prematurely.

With an increasing number of people in Australia and elsewhere having children via surrogacy arrangements, what can we make of these findings?

First, what is surrogacy?

Surrogacy is a situation where a woman becomes pregnant and gives birth to a baby (or babies) for another person or a couple in a planned arrangement.

There are two types of surrogacy.

The first is where the pregnant woman is the full biological mother, with the child conceived using her own egg (sometimes called “traditional” or “genetic” surrogacy).

The second is where the pregnant woman is not the genetic mother and the child is conceived using the egg of a different woman (called “gestational surrogacy”).

Gestational surrogacy involves the transfer of an embryo or embryos into the uterus of a woman who has agreed to carry and birth the child using in vitro fertilisation (IVF). Gestational surrogacy is now the most common form of surrogacy arrangement in Australia.

The new study looked at gestational surrogacy specifically.

What the researchers did

The study, published in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine, was retrospective. This means it used existing data that is gathered routinely on people using health services.

It included 863,017 women who had a single baby between April 2012 and March 2021 (multiple births were excluded).

The researchers compared outcomes for women and babies where the pregnancy was achieved naturally, those who got pregnant using IVF, and those who were pregnant in a gestational surrogacy arrangement where the woman had no genetic link to the baby.

Most babies were conceived naturally, 16,087 were IVF pregnancies, and 806 women were pregnant in gestational surrogacy arrangements.

The researchers found pregnant women in gestational surrogacy arrangements had a rate of severe maternal complications of 7.8%, more than three times the rate of those who became pregnant naturally (2.3%) and almost twice the rate among those who got pregnant through IVF (4.3%).

These risks included postpartum haemorrhage (losing excessive amounts of blood following the birth), severe pre-eclampsia (high blood pressure associated with pregnancy) and serious postpartum infection (sepsis). There was also a higher risk of the baby being born preterm (before 37 weeks) in gestational surrogacy situations.

The researchers attempted to take into account differences between the three groups like age, weight, health problems and socioeconomic status, which can all influence the risk of complications for pregnant women and their babies. Despite this, they still saw these concerning results.

Why might the risk be higher?

Previous research looking at outcomes with gestational surrogacy has had mixed results. But it is thought the reason risks could be greater for the woman and baby in gestational surrogacy arrangements may be because the baby is genetically unrelated to the woman.

Pregnancy has a strong impact on the immune system. During pregnancy, women’s immune systems are altered so they do not reject the growing baby.

An imbalanced or overactive immune response can contribute to pregnancy complications including preterm birth and pre-eclampsia. Having a baby with different genetic material may affect a woman’s immune response during pregnancy, and increase the risk of complications in this way.

Some limitations

Only women having a single baby were included in the study, so we don’t know the outcomes where a multiple pregnancy was involved. However, multiple birth is common in surrogacy, and there are increased risks associated with multiple births for women and babies.

Multiple embryo transfer increases the risk of twins and triplets and is prohibited in the context of surrogacy in Australia (and discouraged in IVF treatments more broadly). But Australians engaging in overseas surrogacy commonly request it.

Also, the study includes a relatively small number of women pregnant in a gestational surrogacy arrangement (806), meaning there’s an increased risk for statistical error and limited ability to detect rare outcomes.

Ethical questions

An increasing number of Australians are having children via surrogacy arrangements. This is due to a combination of factors including a decline in adoption, women delaying motherhood, and increased social acceptability of male same-sex parenting.

Australia only allows altruistic surrogacy, where the woman who agrees to have the baby for others is not paid.

However, some other countries allow women to be paid to become pregnant for others (commercial surrogacy). Concern regarding the exploitation of women via commercial surrogacy is such that Queensland, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory have made it illegal for residents to travel overseas to engage in commercial surrogacy.

Even so, most Australia children born as a result of surrogacy arrangements are born through overseas commercial surrogacy.

Despite some limitations, this research indicates increased risks for women becoming pregnant in gestational surrogacy arrangements, and the babies they carry. It seems important the potentially elevated risks should be made clear to women considering carrying and birthing a baby for someone else, and to the prospective parents.

Considering the rise in surrogacy globally it’s important more research is undertaken on the potential health and other impacts of this practice on women and babies. Health, ethical and human rights implications should inform legislative frameworks, policy and practice.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Surrogacy is booming. But new research suggests these pregnancies could be higher risk for women and babies – https://theconversation.com/surrogacy-is-booming-but-new-research-suggests-these-pregnancies-could-be-higher-risk-for-women-and-babies-239574

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Inge Gnatt, PhD Candidate, Lecturer in Psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

Have you ever noticed changes in your eating habits when you are sad, bored or anxious?

Many people report eating either more, or less, as a way of helping them to cope when they experience difficult emotions.

Although this is a very normal response, it can take the pleasure out of eating, and can become distressing and bring about other feelings of shame and self-criticism.

Adding to the complexity of it all, we live in a world where diet culture is unavoidable, and our relationship to eating, food and body image can become complicated and confusing.

Emotional eating is common

“Emotional eating” refers to the eating behaviours (typically eating more) that occur in response to difficult emotions.

Research shows around 20% of people regularly engage in emotional eating, with a higher prevalence among adolescents and women. In a study of more than 1,500 adolescents, 34% engaged in emotional eating while sad and 40% did so while anxious.

Foods consumed are often fast-foods and other energy-dense, nutrient-poor convenience foods.

Stress, strong emotions and depression

For some people, emotional eating was simply a habit formed earlier in life that has persisted over time.

But other factors might also contribute to the likelihood of emotional eating. The physiological effects of stress and strong emotions, for example, can influence hormones such as cortisol, insulin and glucose, which can also increase appetite.

Increased impulsivity (behaving before thinking things through), vulnerability to depression, a tendency to ruminate and difficulties regulating emotions also increase the likelihood of emotional eating.

So what do you do?

First, know that fluctuations in eating are normal. However, if you find that the way you eat in response to difficult emotions is not working for you, there are a few things you can do.

Starting with small things that are achievable but can have a huge impact, such as prioritising getting enough sleep and eating regularly.

Then, you can start to think about how you handle your emotions and hunger cues.

Expand your emotional awareness

Often we label emotions as good or bad, and this can result in fear, avoidance, and unhelpful coping strategies such as emotional eating.

But it’s also important to differentiate the exact emotion. This might be feeling isolated, powerless or victimised, rather than something as broad as sad.

By noticing what the emotion is, we can bring curiosity to what it means, how we feel in our minds and bodies, and how we think and behave in response.

Tap into your feelings of hunger and fullness

Developing an intuitive way of eating is another helpful strategy to promote healthy eating behaviours.

Intuitive eating means recognising, understanding and responding to internal signals of hunger and fullness. This might mean tuning in to and acknowledging physical hunger cues, responding by eating food that is nourishing and enjoyable, and identifying sensations of fullness.

Intuitive eating encourages flexibility and thinking about the pleasure we get from food and eating. This style of eating also allows us to enjoy eating out with friends, and sample local delicacies when travelling.

It can also reduce the psychological distress from feeling out of control with your eating habits and the associated negative body image.

When is it time to seek help?

For some people, the thoughts and behaviours relating to food, eating and body image can negatively impact their life.

Having the support of friends and family, accessing online resources and, in some instances, seeing a trained professional, can be very helpful.

There are many therapeutic interventions that work to improve aspects associated with emotional eating. These will depend on your situation, needs, stage of life and other factors, such as whether you are neurodivergent.

The best approach is to engage with someone who can bring compassion and understanding to your personal situation, and work with you collaboratively. This work might include:

• unpacking some of the patterns that could be underlying these emotions, thoughts and behaviours
• helping you to discover your emotions
• supporting you to process other experiences, such as trauma exposure
• developing a more flexible and intuitive way of eating.

One of the dangers that can occur in response to emotional eating is the temptation to diet, which can lead to disordered eating, and eating disorder behaviours. Indicators of a potential eating disorder can include:

• recent rapid weight loss
• preoccupation with weight and shape (which is usually in contrast to other people’s perceptions)
• eating large amounts of food within a short space of time (two hours or less) and feeling a sense of loss of control
• eating in secret
• compensating for food eaten (with vomiting, exercise or laxatives).

Evidence-based approaches can support people experiencing eating disorders. To find a health professional who is informed and specialises in this area, search the Butterfly Foundation’s expert database.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14, or the Butterfly Foundation on 1800 ED HOPE
(1800 33 4673).

Inge Gnatt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How can I stop using food to cope with negative emotions? – https://theconversation.com/how-can-i-stop-using-food-to-cope-with-negative-emotions-238218

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne

This piece is the final of a three part series on Australia’s defamation laws. You can read the other pieces here and here.

Defamation laws exist to strike a balance between press freedom and the protection of people’s reputations from wrongful harm. In Australia, this balance has always been loaded against press freedom.

This is due partly to the way the defamation laws have been framed and partly by the way the courts have interpreted them.

Courts examine matters of journalism in the same way they examine matters of law: forensically, with strict rules and high standards of evidence and proof.

While we rightly expect ethical and honest reporting from our media, even the best can prove insufficient under the piercing gaze of defamation law. And in a time when media companies are more cash-strapped than ever, this has a chilling effect on the stories that get told and press freedom more broadly.

Ethics vs the law

Until 2006, each Australian jurisdiction had its own defamation laws. This created a nightmare of complexity for publishers, especially of newspapers and broadcasts that crossed state boundaries, which meant all the main media organisations.

They had to take into account the risks posed by litigation in the jurisdiction least favourable to press freedom.

For many decades, that was New South Wales. It was one of the states where truth alone was not a sufficient defence; there also had to be a public interest in the material. In some other jurisdictions this was called public benefit.

Read more:
With all these defamation lawsuits, what ever happened to free speech?

This was a major burden on press freedom and it was removed by the introduction of uniform defamation laws in 2006.

Since then, it has been enough for publishers to prove the substantial truth of the meanings conveyed in an article in order for the defence of truth to succeed.

It may sound straightforward, but proving substantial truth requires producing admissible evidence strong enough to satisfy the civil standard of proof: on the balance of probabilities. That usually means having documents and witnesses who are willing to be identified.

If, as is often the case, the article has drawn on evidence from a confidential source, the publisher is unable to put that source in the witness box because to do so would breach the media’s fundamental ethical obligation to protect the identity of confidential sources.

So unless the source is prepared in advance to be identified should the matter come to court, a story relying significantly on that person’s testimony may not see the light of day unless some other defence is available.

In 2021, those defences were expanded, although quite how significant that expansion turns out to be remains to be seen.

What appears on paper to be the most significant change was the introduction of a general public interest defence. This says that if publication of a story is in the public interest, and the publisher has a reasonable belief that it is, then publication can be defended on that ground.

There has been only one major test of that new defence, and it went against the media.

That case showed “reasonable belief” depended on the journalism being sound. In this case, the court found that the defendant, which was the ABC, had relied on shaky testimony that had not been sufficiently verified and had not given the subject of the story a fair opportunity to respond.

At odds with practicalities

This brings us to the question of how the courts interpret the law.

One of the big disappointments in this respect has been the way the courts have interpreted what, at the time, was hoped to be a significant addition to Australia’s threadbare free-speech jurisprudence.

In a case brought against the ABC by a late prime minister of New Zealand, David Lange, the High Court established the principle that freedom of speech on matters of government and politics trumped a person’s case for protection for their reputation.

If a person wanted to sue for defamation, they had to do so in a way that did not burden freedom of speech on matters of government and politics.

Read more:
Politicians know defamation laws can silence women, but they won’t do anything about it

However, the High Court attached a test of reasonableness to this freedom. In several ways, it’s similar to the “reasonable belief” test in the new public interest defence.

Unfortunately, successive courts have applied the Lange reasonableness test in ways that are so strict they require journalists to meet standards demanding more powers of investigation than they possess or to exceed the usual journalistic standards of verification. Journalists can’t subpoena documents or compel people to speak to them.

The result is that this defence has become more or less a dead letter for journalistic purposes.

Is a story worth the cost?

Those accused of defamation can also defend it by saying it was comment or honest opinion. The first requirement of this defence is that the material be a comment and not a statement of fact.

But courts have interpreted this in different ways.

This uncertainty was illustrated by a famous case that became known as “Leo the Lobster”. A restaurant and restaurateur in Sydney successfully sued the Sydney Morning Herald over a review of a lobster dinner written by one Leo Schofield.

Schofield, who was a colourful writer, said the lobster had been overcooked:

the carbonized claws contained only a kind of white powder which might have been albino walrus.

Despite the amusing language, the court interpreted that as a literal factual description, not a statement of opinion.

Courts have a limited sense of humour, which makes satirical writing a chancy business, since the sharper the satire, the closer it is to literal truth.

Cartoons, which are satirical by definition, have more leeway but are not immune to defamation suits.

Then there’s the costs of defamation, particularly for media outlets. They’ve become exorbitant.

It has been estimated that the costs involved in the case brought by Ben Roberts-Smith against The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Canberra Times amounted to about $25 million. The newspapers won, although the matter has gone to appeal.

But even if the verdict is upheld, experience shows it is unlikely they will recoup anything like their full costs.

At a time when all major news media organisations are under acute financial pressure because of the inroads the internet has made on their revenue, there is a strong temptation not to risk publishing material the public has a right to know because of the financial impact an action for defamation would have.

Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Costly defamation action looms large over Australian newsrooms. It’s diminishing press freedom – https://theconversation.com/costly-defamation-action-looms-large-over-australian-newsrooms-its-diminishing-press-freedom-238072

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Inge Gnatt, PhD Candidate, Lecturer in Psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

Have you ever noticed changes in your eating habits when you are sad, bored or anxious?

Many people report eating either more, or less, as a way of helping them to cope when they experience difficult emotions.

Although this is a very normal response, it can take the pleasure out of eating, and can become distressing and bring about other feelings of shame and self-criticism.

Adding to the complexity of it all, we live in a world where diet culture is unavoidable, and our relationship to eating, food and body image can become complicated and confusing.

Emotional eating is common

“Emotional eating” refers to the eating behaviours (typically eating more) that occur in response to difficult emotions.

Research shows around 20% of people regularly engage in emotional eating, with a higher prevalence among adolescents and women. In a study of more than 1,500 adolescents, 34% engaged in emotional eating while sad and 40% did so while anxious.

Foods consumed are often fast-foods and other energy-dense, nutrient-poor convenience foods.

Stress, strong emotions and depression

For some people, emotional eating was simply a habit formed earlier in life that has persisted over time.

But other factors might also contribute to the likelihood of emotional eating. The physiological effects of stress and strong emotions, for example, can influence hormones such as cortisol, insulin and glucose, which can also increase appetite.

Increased impulsivity (behaving before thinking things through), vulnerability to depression, a tendency to ruminate and difficulties regulating emotions also increase the likelihood of emotional eating.

So what do you do?

First, know that fluctuations in eating are normal. However, if you find that the way you eat in response to difficult emotions is not working for you, there are a few things you can do.

Starting with small things that are achievable but can have a huge impact, such as prioritising getting enough sleep and eating regularly.

Then, you can start to think about how you handle your emotions and hunger cues.

Expand your emotional awareness

Often we label emotions as good or bad, and this can result in fear, avoidance, and unhelpful coping strategies such as emotional eating.

But it’s also important to differentiate the exact emotion. This might be feeling isolated, powerless or victimised, rather than something as broad as sad.

By noticing what the emotion is, we can bring curiosity to what it means, how we feel in our minds and bodies, and how we think and behave in response.

Tap into your feelings of hunger and fullness

Developing an intuitive way of eating is another helpful strategy to promote healthy eating behaviours.

Intuitive eating means recognising, understanding and responding to internal signals of hunger and fullness. This might mean tuning in to and acknowledging physical hunger cues, responding by eating food that is nourishing and enjoyable, and identifying sensations of fullness.

Intuitive eating encourages flexibility and thinking about the pleasure we get from food and eating. This style of eating also allows us to enjoy eating out with friends, and sample local delicacies when travelling.

It can also reduce the psychological distress from feeling out of control with your eating habits and the associated negative body image.

When is it time to seek help?

For some people, the thoughts and behaviours relating to food, eating and body image can negatively impact their life.

Having the support of friends and family, accessing online resources and, in some instances, seeing a trained professional, can be very helpful.

There are many therapeutic interventions that work to improve aspects associated with emotional eating. These will depend on your situation, needs, stage of life and other factors, such as whether you are neurodivergent.

The best approach is to engage with someone who can bring compassion and understanding to your personal situation, and work with you collaboratively. This work might include:

• unpacking some of the patterns that could be underlying these emotions, thoughts and behaviours
• helping you to discover your emotions
• supporting you to process other experiences, such as trauma exposure
• developing a more flexible and intuitive way of eating.

One of the dangers that can occur in response to emotional eating is the temptation to diet, which can lead to disordered eating, and eating disorder behaviours. Indicators of a potential eating disorder can include:

• recent rapid weight loss
• preoccupation with weight and shape (which is usually in contrast to other people’s perceptions)
• eating large amounts of food within a short space of time (two hours or less) and feeling a sense of loss of control
• eating in secret
• compensating for food eaten (with vomiting, exercise or laxatives).

Evidence-based approaches can support people experiencing eating disorders. To find a health professional who is informed and specialises in this area, search the Butterfly Foundation’s expert database.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14, or the Butterfly Foundation on 1800 ED HOPE
(1800 33 4673).

Inge Gnatt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How can I stop eating to cope with negative emotions? – https://theconversation.com/how-can-i-stop-eating-to-cope-with-negative-emotions-238218