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Regional Australia needs more workers to rebuild after disasters like Alfred. Skilled refugees could help

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sally Baker, Associate Professor, Migration and Education, Australian National University

The damage inflicted by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Queensland and northern New South Wales has been extensive. Several areas have had infrastructure badly damaged, and many homes have been destroyed.

With natural disasters set to become “situation normal” as the impacts of heating oceans and climate change accelerate, it’s crucial Australia consider contingency workforce planning.

Disasters such as these expose the extent of the severe skills shortages experienced in many parts of Australia, but especially in the regions. Each year, regional Australia loses to cities thousands of professional and trade-related people whose skills cannot be replaced.

Rebuilding, restoring and rehabilitating the affected areas will require the immediate and sustained work of skilled workers – but these are in short supply in many places.

Already it was hard to find people with the necessary skills to undertake infrastructure maintenance. Now people affected by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred are joining long wait lists for electricians, plumbers, builders and other services.

Where are the workers when you need them?

The situation is stark. There are not enough skilled workers to support Australia’s day-to-day building and maintenance needs, let alone in response to disasters.

The federal government agency Jobs and Skills Australia estimates 67 occupations under the category “Technicians and Trades Workers” are in persistent shortage. This represents a third of the skills shortages in Australia.

These shortages are much more acute in regional, rural and remote parts of Australia. In these places, location is commonly cited as the reason why suitable applicants do not take the job.

This labour is not just a problem for disaster responses. These skills gaps are also pushing up construction costs, frustrating building works needed to relieve the housing pressure Australia-wide.

The situation is so bad states and territories are competing for tradespeople to move. The Western Australia government’s Build a Life in WA campaign, for instance, offers cash incentives to attract building and construction professionals, and skilled tradespeople.

Australia’s skills gaps are so entrenched, education and training schemes – such as apprenticeships – are not going to help quickly enough.

Instead, some see skilled migration as a possible solution. In 2024, peak bodies such as the Business Council of Australia and Master Builders Australia lobbied the Australian federal government for changes to the ways that migration can respond to the skills needs. They argue 90,000 new tradies were needed by the end of 2024.

However, Australia is competing with many other countries for skilled tradespeople. Traditional sources of migrant labour may not provide the number of skilled migrants needed.

An untapped source of skilled workers: refugees

One solution to these problems is exploring the untapped potential of the more than 122 million people who are displaced around the world. Many have the skills and experience that countries like Australia need.

One pilot program, the Skilled Refugee Labour Agreement Pilot, is being trialled by the Australian Department of Home Affairs.

This scheme provides concessions to the usual visa requirements for skilled migration. This helps refugees to overcome the administrative hurdles that exclude them from regular processes (such as not having a passport).

With this flexibility, the program — led by not-for-profit group Talent Beyond Boundaries — will match 500 refugees to employers by mid-2025.

Talent Beyond Boundaries matches refugees with employers.

To date, 40% of workers accessing this pathway in Australia have been recruited by employers in regional areas. Roughly 40% are technicians and trades workers.

This kind of solution helps the Australian government expand its response to the ever-increasing numbers of displaced peoples globally.

It also provides opportunities for employers to source skilled workers through the matching facility offered by Talent Beyond Boundaries.

Using their extensive Talent Catalog, Talent Beyond Boundaries can connect employers in professions with key skills gaps, and in areas experiencing severe skills shortages, to a pool of more than 120,000 skilled workers looking for an opportunity to restart their careers and lives in safety.

Recognising the skills in our midst

A second creative solution is to leverage the skills and expertise that already exist in Australia’s migrant and refugee communities.

The Billion Dollar Benefit campaign is spearheaded by not-for-profit group Settlement Services International. It estimates one in four permanent migrants in Australia are working below their skill level. The cost of failing to leverage these existing skills is about A$1.25 billion over five years, it estimates.

Tailoring solutions

We’re currently researching the economic, social and policy dimensions of skilled refugee labour mobility in addressing skills shortages in regional Australia, particularly for small and medium-sized employers.

Working with partner organisations Talent Beyond Boundaries and a think tank called the Regional Australia Institute, researchers at UNSW and ANU have been speaking to employers, community leaders, employment and settlement services in regional areas across the country. We’ve also been speaking with skilled refugee workers who have settled in regional Australia through the pilot.

What we are hearing is that businesses are desperate for workers ready to go. They are frustrated by the costly, lengthy and complicated processes of sourcing talent from overseas. The costs are especially prohibitive for small and medium enterprises.

Highly skilled refugees have told us the Skilled Refugee Labour Agreement Pilot has helped them regain a foothold in their careers, and rebuild their and their children’s lives, while also helping meet regional skills shortages.

Programs matching skilled refugees with employers and regions desperate for skilled workers can be a win-win.

The Conversation

Sally Baker receives funding from the Australian Refugee Council (Linkage: LP220100286) and the Australia Centre for Student Equity and Success to research on issues relating to refugee resettlement and educational and employment access.

Louise Olliff has previously done consultancy work for Settlement Services International and is funded by the ARC. She is a part-time Senior Policy Advisor for the Refugee Council of Australia. Talent Beyond Boundaries is a partner organisation in the ARC Linkage Grant she is funded through.

ref. Regional Australia needs more workers to rebuild after disasters like Alfred. Skilled refugees could help – https://theconversation.com/regional-australia-needs-more-workers-to-rebuild-after-disasters-like-alfred-skilled-refugees-could-help-251909

Calculated risk: will the next Reserve Bank governor relax capital requirements for banks?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Matthews, Associate Professor and Head of School, School of Accountancy, Economics and Finance, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

Andrzej Rostek/Getty Images

Adrian Orr has so far not spoken about the reasons for his recent and unexpected resignation as Reserve Bank governor, but the sudden departure caused understandable speculation.

One suggestion has been that Orr was at odds with the government over his requirement that the Australian-owned New Zealand banks hold high levels of capital compared to other countries.

Whether this was indeed a reason for Orr’s resignation we can’t say. But it does raise important questions about Reserve Bank – and government – policies.

Set by the Reserve Bank, capital requirements specify the amount of equity banks need to have to cover future losses. Since 2022, banks have been required to hold enough equity to be able to survive a 1-in-200-year event.

But holding onto this much capital is expensive for banks. The higher requirements have led to higher interest rates – making it more expensive for people and businesses to borrow.

The government has long criticised the current capital requirements. Last August, Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she was open to making the Reserve Bank ease its regulation of banks – if a strong enough case could be made that it would improve competition and efficiency without undermining the stability of the financial system.

Adrian Orr standing at branded podium
Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr has resigned, leading to questions about what happens next for his much-criticised capital requirements.
Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

Making lending attractive again

The 2022 capital requirements meant the “big four” banks (ANZ, Westpac, ASB and BNZ) had to increase equity from 10.5% to 18% of their risk-weighted assets over the next seven years. Smaller banks had to increase their equity to 16%.

The new requirements were met with some resistance. This was due, in part, to concerns about how the move would affect bank customers.

To meet higher capital requirements, banks focused on lending that generated higher returns. They also charged higher interest rates to compensate for the increased levels of capital required for the loans.

Financial analytics company S&P Global described the rules as the toughest bank capital requirements in the world and noted the risk of reduced access to credit, particularly for smaller businesses.

Calls for change

Even before Orr’s resignation, members of the coalition government had called for changes to the capital requirements.

In January, ACT leader David Seymour sought information from the Ministry for Regulation on the issue.

Seymour has said going back to the former levels of bank capital would support economic growth by enabling more lending to business at more affordable interest rates.

In its study on the banking sector, the Commerce Commission also suggested revising bank capital requirements to address competition issues.

The 2022 capital requirements have influenced the type of lending banks do and the interest rates they have applied.

The more capital banks have to hold against a loan, the higher the interest rate required to cover that cost. This means home loans are more expensive under the current rules. If the requirements reduced (and nothing else changes) home loan interest rates would reduce.

At the same time. other types of lending – such as business loans – would become more attractive if capital requirements drop and banks have to have less equity on hand.

With a limited pool of funds available to lend, this may mean banks make fewer home loans and more personal and business loans.

Careful consideration needed

In the end, there is no guarantee a new Reserve Bank governor will reduce the capital requirements. And, under the current rules, the governor is the one who gets to make that call.

While the government has some say in the appointment process, the Reserve Bank board is responsible for recommending the next appointee.

Whoever finally takes the post will have to weigh up the benefits of any rule changes with the potential risks – including what the uncertainty of frequent rule changes do to the wider economy.

They will also need to take into account why Orr pushed for the higher capital requirements to begin with. He worried that in the event of a global financial disaster, the four major Australian-owned banks might abandon New Zealand customers.

Having the higher levels of capital forced the banks to have a greater financial cushion against losses and reduced the risk of bank failure. And ultimately, no government wants a bank to fail, with the personal and economic costs that would entail.

The Conversation

Claire Matthews is a Senior Fellow of Finsia and a Certified Member of INFINZ. She received a grant from the RBNZ to assist with expenses associated with her PhD in 2004.

ref. Calculated risk: will the next Reserve Bank governor relax capital requirements for banks? – https://theconversation.com/calculated-risk-will-the-next-reserve-bank-governor-relax-capital-requirements-for-banks-251713

Violent weekend brawl, clashes rock Greater Nouméa area

By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk

A series of violent incidents and confrontations over the weekend in New Caledonia’s capital Nouméa and its surroundings, causing clashes with law enforcement agencies and several injuries.

On Saturday night, in a bar and night-club in downtown Nouméa, a “Ladies Night” event dedicated to International Women’s Day degenerated into an all-out brawl, involving mostly young customers.

The event was scheduled to end at 2am, but bar owners decided to close at 1am, prompting violent reactions from the young patrons, who started to throw glasses at the DJ, then ransacked the bar.

The incident was recorded and later broadcast on social networks.

“We should have closed at 2am, but shortly after midnight, we felt the pressure was mounting and most of the people were already quite inebriated”, the 1881 establishment owner told local media.

“So we decided to close earlier to avoid people getting more drunk. We stopped the music, that’s when they started to throw glasses to the bar”.

The brawl involved 300-400 youths in a bar and night-club in downtown Nouméa on Saturday night. Image: RNZ Pacific/FB

Public brawl outside
Outside, in a parking lot, an estimated “300 to 400 hundred” customers began a public brawl.

Law enforcement units were called and later described themselves as finding “a dangerous situation” — confronted with “hostile” individuals, and having to resort to teargas and stun-balls.

The French High Commission reported during a press conference yesterday that seven people had been injured, including one gendarme and a police officer, in the face of people throwing “bottles, stones and even concrete blocks”.

The situation came back under control at around 2:30 am, officials said.

The High Commission said that at this stage no one had been arrested, but an investigation was underway that could lead to the bar and night club being closed down.

“This is a serious incident . . .  but we are not back to the insurrection situation last year”, the French High Commission’s chief-of-staff, Anaïs Aït Mansour, told reporters.

She said a meeting had been called with all of Nouméa’s bar and nightclub owners and managers.

After months of prohibition on the sale of alcoholic beverages, following the violent unrest that started in May 2024, the restrictions were finally lifted only a few weeks ago.

A re-introduction of the restrictive measure was now “under consideration”, Aït Mansour said.

The incident has also prompted political reactions as parties were preparing for the return of French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls in less than two weeks to try to bring political talks to another level on New Caledonia’s political future.

Politicians warned not to amalgamate
The incidents, widely condemned by the pro-France political groups, were also labelled as “unacceptable” by the major pro-independence Union Calédonienne (UC)-FLNKS party.

In a media statement, UC said these “acts of vandalism and violence committed by inebriated youths” had “nothing to do with the political claims from 13 May 2024, or with the Kanak people’s struggle”.

However, the pro-independence party warned against any attempt to “turn these youths into scapegoats for all of our society’s harms”.

UC said this behaviour could be explained by “a profound ill-being” among “a certain part” of the young Kanak population who felt disenfranchised.

Violent clashes on highway
The weekend was also marred by another violent confrontation with law enforcement services on the territorial road RT1 between the capital Nouméa and the La Tontouta International Airport where motorists were targeted by people throwing stones at them.

The incidents took place early Sunday morning near the Saint-Laurent village, in an area usually referred to as Col de La Pirogue, close to the small town of Païta.

The Gendarmerie Commander, General Nicolas Matthéos, said those actions were from a group of up to 30 individuals under the influence of alcohol.

He said his services were now attempting to talk to traditional chiefs in the area so they could persuade those responsible for these “very aggressive” acts to surrender and be “brought to justice”.

He said four gendarmes had been slightly injured after being hit by stones.

“We had to use stun grenades and during those operations we had to stop all traffic on the RT1″,” he said.

Traffic was interrupted for almost one hour and a squadron of gendarmes remained in place to secure the area.

A judicial inquiry is also underway.

Sandalwood oil factory goes up in flames
Also at the weekend, a sandalwood oil factory went up in flames late on Sunday evening on the island of Maré in the Loyalty Islands group.

Local firemen could not stop the destruction of the small factory’ production and refinery unit.

Another investigation is now underway from Nouméa-based gendarmerie investigators to determine the cause of the fire and whether it was accidental or criminal.

The locally-managed unit was created in 2010.

It is believed to be the world’s third largest producer of high-quality sandalwood essential oil, with international perfume and cosmetics clients such as Dior, Guerlain and Chanel.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Do cats have ‘friends’, or do they always vie for territory? Animal experts weigh in

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanna Tepper, Associate Lecturer, Psychology, La Trobe University

Yang/Unsplash

Domestic cats have been living alongside humans for an estimated 10,000 years, first as rodent control and then as the couch-warmers we know and love. A far cry from the lone predator lifestyle of their ancestors, today millions of cats worldwide live within human families. More than 30% of households in the United States and Australia own a cat.

We highly value the relationships we share with these furry companions, frequently considering them friends, family members or even “children”.

And this sentiment may be shared, with cats demonstrating affection through seeking out our company, physical contact and engaging in play. Like a secret language between friends, there is even evidence to suggest cats have developed specific vocalisations to communicate with their owners.

Despite this, cats are typically seen as aloof and elusive. But how true is this? Do cats form friendships beyond us?

A complex recipe

Firstly, what does a cat friendship look like? Behaviours that may indicate friendship between two cats include social grooming, such as licking each other’s fur, head rubbing, spending time together and playing together.

In contrast, behaviours such as charging, fighting or chasing may indicate a disagreement is brewing or already underway.

Cats also have very few “conflict defusing” signals in their behavioural repertoire, choosing to run away or avoid each other rather than attempt reconciliation during conflict.

Such disharmony can be stressful for the cats. Many owners end up wondering how to maximise the chances of fostering a positive relationship between their cat and other animals – or if they should get them a “friend” at all.

Two fluffy cats sitting together and looking at something off camera.
Successful cat friendships can be tricky to achieve.
Kelly/Unsplash

The recipe for successful feline friendships is a little complex. Research on cat dynamics in unowned, free-ranging cats has found close relationships are more likely to form – and last – if they are:

Indoor-only cats can also form strong friendships with other cats in the household. Similar to unowned free-ranging cats, cats who have been introduced to one another at a young age, who are related, and who have lived together for a long-time, are more likely to be close friends.

However, among de-sexed cats, male pairs show closer bonds than male-female pairs. Female pairs are the least likely to be friends.

Their first introduction is also the most predictive factor for positive long-term relationships.

What about outdoor friends?

We know less about the social lives of pet cats that are allowed to roam outside, but the default behaviour for most cats is one of competitiveness and territorialism.

That said, cats will typically try to avoid confrontations with others.

While some research has found interactions between roaming cats are usually calm, they can and do sometimes result in fights – particularly if food is around or they venture into an unfamiliar unowned cats’ territory.

To complicate things further, two cats are more likely to fight within a household if they are allowed outside – likely due to bringing in unfamiliar scents.

We also can’t forget the problematic relationship cats can have with native fauna, sometimes decimating local wildlife populations. In many places, especially in parts of Australia, cats are not allowed outdoors for this reason.

There are also dangers to their own health and safety if allowed to roam, such as misadventure, risks from road traffic or even disgruntled neighbours.

A cat outdoors swiping at another cat just out of view behind a tree.
Cats are territorial, but typically avoid confrontations with others.
Fred Augé/Pexels

Cats and dogs … in harmony?

While research has mainly explored cats’ friendship with each other, cats can also have positive relationships with other species. For example, while cats and dogs are commonly depicted as mortal enemies, they can live harmoniously, often sleeping and playing together.

However, once again the importance of early exposure and slow introductions in developing this relationship cannot be overstated.

Interestingly, it also appears that indoor cats are friendlier towards their canine companions than cats allowed outdoors. This is possibly because outdoor cats may be exposed to multiple dogs, many of which aren’t happy to see them.

A small dog looking at a cat sitting on a brick fence.
Cats can have positive relationships with other species – like Alfie the cat who comes to visit Bingo the dog every day.
The Conversation

Who’s your cat’s closest friend?

So, should your pet cat have a friend? As you may have guessed by now, the answer to cat friendships is complicated.

If you do plan to introduce your cat to a new companion, here are some suggestions to follow. Firstly, cat introductions should be slow and supervised to increase the chance of a positive first meeting.

Your house should also have plenty of safe spaces, toys and puzzle feeders, scratching posts, and separate food and litter areas in a quiet spot. Providing these resources will help prevent resource guarding (where cats stop other cats from accessing things they need or like) and reduce conflict between the animals.

At the end of the day, while cats can form friendships with other animals, they aren’t crucial to their health and happiness.

Your cat’s closest relationship is the one it has with you. Ensuring they have lots of opportunities to bask in your attention and engage in play is likely enough for even the most social of felines. After all, they have their “aloof and elusive” reputations to uphold.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Do cats have ‘friends’, or do they always vie for territory? Animal experts weigh in – https://theconversation.com/do-cats-have-friends-or-do-they-always-vie-for-territory-animal-experts-weigh-in-249013

Quantum technologies are changing our world – what does NZ need to be part of the next revolution?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hutchinson, Professor in Theoretical Physics, University of Otago

Shutterstock/Gorodenkoff

As part of a major reform of the science sector, the government plans to set up a research organisation focused on emerging technologies, including quantum technologies.

The first quantum revolution – based on understanding how electrons behave in semiconductors to make computer chips possible – brought us computers and smart phones.

We are now in the middle of the second wave of quantum capabilities, which heralds quantum computing, enhanced sensing systems and secure communication technologies.

New Zealand has a strong history in quantum physics, tracing back to Ernest Rutherford’s pioneering investigations of the structure of the atom. More recently, quantum-optics physicist Dan Walls made numerous contributions to understanding the quantum nature of light that are now used in precision measurements, including at the gravitational wave detector LIGO in the US.

Walls and his co-worker Crispin Gardiner established a school of physics in New Zealand that trained many of the world’s leading quantum opticians.

The legacy of this is that New Zealand enjoys an enviable reputation for its contributions to quantum science. But to turn this legacy into a thriving commercial sector, we need sufficient investment to train the next generation of STEM-literate young people and to take the world-leading ideas developed here out to the market.

The weird world of quantum physics

Earlier this month, the United Nations launched the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology to mark a century since the initial formulation of quantum mechanics by Austrian theoretical physicist Erwin Schrödinger and Germany’s Werner Heisenberg, of “cat” and “uncertainty” fame, respectively.

The moniker “quantum” comes from another German physicist, Max Planck. His assertion was that energy could only come in discrete packets, or quanta, such as the energy in light being made up of photons.

The logical consequence of this, according to Schrödinger and Heisenberg, is that waves and particles are just the extreme limits of how we can view the substance of the world. An electron, which we tend to think of as a particle, can have wave-like properties. Light, which we consider a wave, can also behave like a particle.

Understanding the wave-like properties of electrons is what underpins the electronics industry. Understanding the quantum nature of light gives us lasers and optical-fibre communications technologies.

Close-up of a fiber laser cutting machine cutting a metal sheet, with sparkling light flying off.
Lasers such as this laser cutter, and optical-fibre communications, are some of the technologies developed during the first quantum revolution.
Shutterstock/Pixel B

However, the technologies we have developed so far are just the beginning. The second quantum revolution utilises the more weird and wonderful consequences of Planck’s seemingly innocuous “quantisation” of energy.

As long as we don’t look, a quantum particle can be in a superposition of two states at once.

In Schrödinger’s example, a cat in a closed box could be alive and dead at the same time, until we check. Similarly, as an electron spins around its axis, it can have its spin axis pointing up or down. This two-option system can be used to make bits – the zero and one binary building blocks of all computation.

In the quantum world, a new option is allowed: the superposition of zero and one bits. It turns out that, with this new option available, we can construct some algorithms that are faster than anything available through classical logic. This is the promise of quantum computing, the advent of which is on our doorstep.

The risks and rewards of quantum computing

Quantum computation offers both benefits and risks. For example, a quantum algorithm set to surpass classical computing is known as Grover’s search algorithm.

This will speed up the search of vast quantities of information and could optimise logistics, investigations of molecular configurations for drug discovery and myriad other opportunities in computation and design. But it could also compromise privacy and expose people to the attentions of bad actors.

Much of our current information security is based on an encryption system developed in 1977 and known as RSA after the authors of its description (Rivest, Shamir and Adleman). RSA is based on the factorisation of big numbers into their unique prime factors.

RSA2048 is currently unbreakable by modern computers. But a recent survey suggested it could be broken in a day by a quantum computer developed within the next 15 years. This would render current encryption for banking and all information exchange obsolete.

New encryption protocols have been developed but need to be implemented to protect information and money.

Technical challenges of quantum technologies

Quantum properties can also be used to make sensors for electric, magnetic and gravitational fields, leading to applications in medicine and environmental monitoring, but also military and nefarious activities.

The development of quantum technologies faces huge technological challenges and can only proceed effectively through international collaboration.

However, the very nature of the benefits and risks can lead to protectionism and drive the pursuit of national advantage. Because of this, there is a real threat to access to supply chains and new technology.

It is therefore imperative New Zealand is part of international collaborations developing these technologies. We may not build our own quantum computing facility, but we do provide important niche expertise.

For example, we have capability in the development of quantum memories to store quantum information and in quantum transduction (where a quantum state of light can be transferred from one frequency to another) which will be essential for networking quantum computers.

Last month, the OECD published a quantum technologies policy primer. This provides an early foundation for governments to understand the benefits and risks of quantum technologies and outlines the policy opportunities and challenges.

It highlights the need for early, anticipatory governance to ensure equitable benefits accrue from these new technologies. And it identifies a critical risk in the looming lack of appropriately skilled young people.

For New Zealand, this stresses the ever growing need for investment to ensure we can train, attract and retain top talent. New Zealand has a solid foundation in quantum science. It is imperative we capitalise on it for the benefit and security of the nation.

The Conversation

David Hutchinson receives funding through MBIE’s Quantum Technology Aotearoa platform and from the Ministry of Education through the Dodd-Walls Centre of Research Excellence. Until September 2024 he was a departmental science advisor to MBIE, and he is a member of the OECD Global Forum on Technology quantum expert panel.

ref. Quantum technologies are changing our world – what does NZ need to be part of the next revolution? – https://theconversation.com/quantum-technologies-are-changing-our-world-what-does-nz-need-to-be-part-of-the-next-revolution-249466

Independents took cities by storm last election. This time, they’ve got regional Australia in their sights

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maxine Newlands, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland, Adjunct Principle Research Fellow, Cairns Institute, James Cook University

In 2022, the national vote for independents or minor parties was the highest in almost a century. A third of Australians voted for someone who wasn’t running for Labor or the Coalition.

This has been interpreted as a phenomenon largely playing out in inner-city electorates.

But this election, it will pay to keep an eye on independents running in regional and rural Australia. Growing grassroots support suggests they, along with minor parties, will pose a major challenge to the two-party dominance that’s slowly diminishing.

Building independent momentum

Independents and minor parties have long been a feature of Australian politics, despite Australia’s political setup favouring a two-party system.

But as successive federal elections have shown, traditional two-party voting is changing.

In 2019, one in four voters preferred minor or independent candidates. In 2022, it was one in three.

Pollsters predict on two-candidate preferred, there will be a swing towards independents in regional and rural seats, and swings against them in the inner cities.

Labor movements have been drifting away from their manufacturing heartland, towards cities and metropolitan issues. The Coalition, meanwhile, has held steady in the cities and even grown in regional areas, but declined in rural seats.

In 2013, the Community Independents Project was cofounded by Cathy McGowan and Alana Johnson, targeting inner-city seats.

Then, six weeks before the 2019 federal election, Climate 200 emerged as a second network of independent, community-minded candidates.

By 2022, the results were reflected in both the upper and lower house, with ten independents elected to the House of Representatives – the largest crossbench since 1934 – and ten of the 40 incoming senators representing minor parties or independents.

Now, they have their sights set on regional or provincial and rural seats. They are repeating the 2022 strategy of mostly women candidates issuing a challenge to Liberals in formerly “safe” seats.

‘Kitchen table’ campaigners

Claiming the two major parties have abandoned regional and rural Australia, independents are pitching themselves as the solution.

However, they take care to distinguish their goals from the Teal movement’s focus on city seats.

Candidates include former teachers, nurses, lawyers, regional health leaders, financial education specialists, natural resources managers, community support centre chief executives, solar-energy innovators, and a radio show host.

Health, wellbeing, regional access to medical facilities and the housing crisis are key issues. This is because construction lags behind population growth in areas such as Queensland’s Sunshine Coast and the outer northwestern suburbs of Sydney and outer west of Melbourne.

The strategy is simple: conversations around the kitchen table, community centre meetings, and “listening campaigns” focusing on hyper-local issues.

It’s a movement that pays homage to a more direct model of democracy.

Big money, big aims

A Community Independent candidate is supported by a network of organisations including the Regional Voices Fund, Climate 200, Voices AU, Community Independent Projects plus other media, legal and branding firms.

While the candidates may differ in background and even in policy priorities, the idea is they represent the community, not the interests of a party. A focus on climate change is also key.

The movement is aiming to raise $2 million for rural and regional candidates, through the Regional Voices Fund. The target is getting five regional and rural crossbenchers into the next parliament.

So far, the regional fund is supporting 12 candidates:

  • one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia

  • four in New South Wales

  • and five in country Victoria.

Priority will be given to defending key independent seats, including Indi in southeast Victoria, where Helen Haines holds a 1.4% margin against the Liberal Party’s Ross Lyman.

Of the 35 independent candidates supported by the Community Independent movement, four came close in 2022 and are recontesting.

Caz Heise will try again for the New South Wales seat of Cowper, currently held by the Nationals on a margin of just 2.4%.

Another Nationals-held NSW seat, Calare, will be challenged again by Kate Hook, who attracted 40% of the vote in 2022.

In Victoria, Alex Dyson cut the Liberal margin from 10.2% to 3.5% in Wannon in the previous election, and will be hoping to win this time.

And in Queensland, Suzie Holt will try again for the seat of Groom. Previously a very safe Liberal seat, there was a 13.65% swing against the party in 2022.

A primed electorate

The ground is fertile for success. Take Queensland as an example.

It’s the state with the most regional seats outside the capital. In 2019, Queensland saw a substantial growth in a minor party and independent vote, propelled largely by a regional, populist and conservative backlash against progressive metropolitan policy agendas.

Almost 90% of Queensland voters endorsed a major party in 1996, but just 70% did so in 2019.

Queensland’s politics is shaped by populism, with distrust of outsiders, elites and people from southern states. Such slogans such as “don’t take my coal job and I won’t take your soy latte” are readily deployed, priming a disenfranchised electorate to look for alternatives outside the usual dichotomy.

In WA, changes to the Legislative Council on a state level remove the distinction between city and country members of the upper house. It’s ignited a similar city vs country divide.

So while the regions have much lower populations than cities, due to preferential and proportional voting systems, independents and minor parties can have an outsized influence on politics without being in government.

Though if minority government predictions prove correct, successful candidates may find themselves in government anyway.

The Conversation

Maxine Newlands is affiliated with Australian Political Studies Association, Environmental Politics and Policy group as co-convenor of the group.

ref. Independents took cities by storm last election. This time, they’ve got regional Australia in their sights – https://theconversation.com/independents-took-cities-by-storm-last-election-this-time-theyve-got-regional-australia-in-their-sights-250894

5 years since COVID was declared a pandemic, we’re still poorly prepared for the next one

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sharon Lewin, Melbourne Laureate Professor, University of Melbourne; Director, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity

Anastasiia Chepinska/Unsplash

On March 11, 2020, as COVID continued to spread rapidly around the globe, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared a pandemic.

More than 7 million people have since died from COVID. The virus, and the public health measures enacted to control it, have had far-reaching effects on societies around the world.

Five years on, the virus continues to circulate. But, thanks to vaccines and immunity acquired from infections, hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID are vastly less frequent than in previous years.

Meanwhile, long COVID continues to have a major impact on people’s lives. Estimates suggest more than 400 million people around the world have had or are currently living with long COVID.

At this point, Australia and the world must take the lessons of COVID – in areas from surveillance, to outbreak response, to vaccines and therapeutics – to be better prepared for the next pandemic.

Some areas we went right – and wrong

Our diagnostic laboratories across Australia were well prepared. Laboratories at the Doherty Institute diagnosed the first case of COVID in Australia and were the first to isolate and share the virus globally in early 2020.

At the same time, a national public health response was quickly put in place. This involved measures such as closing borders, setting up testing centres, and limiting gatherings.

But there are several areas where we could have mobilised more effectively.

During the early stages of the pandemic, there were, at times, challenges with sharing data as well as biological samples and the ingredients for COVID tests between the different states and territories.

For example, there are currently restrictions in place that limit sharing of virus strains between states and territories. But when a new strain emerges, many laboratories need access to it to evaluate their testing capabilities.

One recommendation from an independent 2024 review of the federal government’s COVID response was an Australian Centre for Disease Control. An interim version was launched in early 2024 and the Australian government is investing A$251.7 million in this important initiative.

The goal for the new centre for disease control will be to provide independent technical advice on infectious diseases to government. It will also facilitate rapid integration of data from all states and territories leading to a more unified response.

An empty Melbourne street in 2020.
Five years ago, we were about to enter COVID lockdowns.
FiledIMAGE/Shutterstock

At the start of a pandemic, we need to understand everything about the new virus and at great speed. This needs systems in place in “peace time”, ready to be mobilised in “war time”.

Back in 2020, we had protocols ready for hospitalised patients and intensive care units to collect specimens and also start new clinical trials. But we were not prepared on many other fronts, for example to collect samples or study how COVID was transmitted in the community or in different key groups.

Every day counts at the start of a pandemic.

Harnessing medical technologies

Relatively recent technological advances in both diagnostics (RAT tests) and vaccine development (the use of messenger RNA, which gives our body genetic instructions to fight COVID) have put us in a strong position to be at the cutting edge in any pandemic response.

Moderna, one of the two companies that pioneered the mRNA vaccines, has established its Asia-Pacific headquarters in Melbourne. CSL, which made the AstraZeneca COVID vaccines in Australia and manufactures several other vaccines, has now incorporated mRNA in its repertoire.

This capability means Australians could have immediate access to mRNA vaccines in the event of another pandemic. We could also potentially manufacture these vaccines for low- and middle-income countries in our region.

But what if we can’t make an effective vaccine to fight a future pandemic? This is a situation we must be prepared for, as we’ve seen with infections such as HIV, where after 40 years of trying and billions of dollars spent, we still don’t have a vaccine.

In such a situation, we will need to rely on antiviral drugs. The way we currently make antiviral drugs takes significantly longer to develop than vaccines. And although we have some broad spectrum antiviral drugs, the most potent antivirals are very specific – meaning one drug treats only one type of virus.

To be better prepared for future pandemics, many groups around the world are working on developing a library of drugs that work against whole families of viruses that could cause the next pandemic.

Another approach is to develop totally new technologies that are fully tested for one virus, but can be easily adapted to a new virus. This approach could allow more rapid deployment, as the details of safety and dosing would already be understood.

This is one of the major goals of the recently launched Cumming Global Centre for Pandemic Therapeutics based at the Doherty Institute.

These ambitious efforts will require global collaboration, sharing resources and engagement of the private sector.

A senior man receiving a vaccination.
A COVID vaccine was developed very quickly, although its rollout came with challenges.
hedgehog94/Shutterstock

Once we have a vaccine or drug that works, we need agreed systems in place to ensure widespread equitable access. We fell seriously short of this goal with COVID. Some low- and middle-income countries received vaccines months or years later than high income countries. For treatments, antivirals such as Paxlovid were never available in many countries.

This is one goal of an agreement led by the WHO, called the “pandemic accord”, to have member states agree on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response. But after years of discussion, there remains no binding agreement.

Preparing for the next pandemic

As COVID was (partly due to advances in technology) the most intensively studied pandemic in human history, we have a unique resource in the record of what happened to inform our response to any future pandemic.

And this is likely a matter of when, not if. New infectious disease outbreaks have continued to emerge over the past five years, including mpox, which was declared a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022 and again in August 2024.

Right now, there’s an outbreak of a new viral disease in the Congo, the origins of which have still not been identified.

We know bats, thought to be the source of the coronavirus behind the COVID pandemic, carry an enormous spectrum of viruses that potentially threaten us. But new pandemics can also arise through mosquitoes and close contact with other animals.

Pandemics are global, not national, problems. We are at a pivotal time where countries including Australia must step up their commitments to this global effort. This will need politicians to rely on the evidence and lessons learned from COVID as well as private and public investment.

Unfortunately, five years down the track, we still have a long way to go to be prepared for the next pandemic.

The Conversation

Sharon Lewin receives funding for her research from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the National Institutes of Health, the American Foundation of AIDS Research, mRNA Victoria, the Medical Research Future Fund and Gilead Sciences. Her institution has received funding from the National Foundation for Australia China Relations. She has received honoraria paid to her personally for participation in advisory boards for Gilead Sciences, Merck. Viiv Healthcare, Abbvie, Esfam and Immunocore. She is the Director of the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity and the Cumming Global Centre for Pandemic Therapeutics. She is the immediate past President of the International AIDS Society. The Doherty Institute has provided modelling and advice to the Australian government pertaining to COVID.

Peter C. Doherty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. 5 years since COVID was declared a pandemic, we’re still poorly prepared for the next one – https://theconversation.com/5-years-since-covid-was-declared-a-pandemic-were-still-poorly-prepared-for-the-next-one-245362

What can you do if your child is being bullied?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Green, Senior Lecturer, UniSA Education Futures, University of South Australia

MPIX/Shutterstock

Bullying is one of the top concerns Australian parents have about their children’s health.

Unfortunately about one in four Australian students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied at least every few weeks.

The federal government has recently set up a six month “rapid review” to look at what schools are doing and how best to address bullying.

But what can you do if your child is being bullied at school?




Read more:
There’s a new ‘rapid review’ into school bullying. Research shows we need to involve the whole school to stop it


What is bullying?

Recognising a child is being bullied and knowing what to do about it can be difficult for parents.

It’s important to understand what is and isn’t bullying.
Bullying is about deliberately using power and status to repeatedly cause distress to, or control another person.

It is not usually a “one off” (although cyberbullying can involve a single post/image, which may be viewed many times or reposted over a long period of time).

It can involve repeated verbal, physical and/or social behaviours (on and offline) intended to cause physical, social and/or psychological harm.

Younger children tend to use more physical forms of bullying. Older children may use more subtle forms of covert and manipulative bullying, which harms social relationships. This can include excluding someone from a group and spreading rumours.

What are the signs a child is being bullied?

Look out for any unexplained changes in your child.

This may include physical injuries, a change in their participation in school or other activities or shifts in friendships. Your child may also be more anxious and nervous, withdrawn or angry.

You know your child best, but directly asking how their friendships are going, may be met with resistance. So if you want to talk about it, a more casual approach may be a better first step. This could include in the car after school/sport or walking together somewhere.

A child sits on a couch, covered in pillows
A child who is being bullied may become more anxios or withdrawn.
Pixabay/ Pexels, CC BY

What if your child says they are being bullied?

Children may not want to tell anyone they are being bullied out of fear of things getting worse.

But if and when they do tell, it is often to a parent before friends or the teacher/school.

For parents, hearing your child is being bullied is confronting.
But try to stay calm and resist any urges to trivialise, ridicule, blame, get angry or downplay what is being reported. For example, don’t dismiss it as other kids “just being bitchy/nasty”.

Remember no one chooses to be victimised and it takes courage for a child to report and share what has happened.
Listen for the emotion in their voice to know how to connect with them. Are they scared, nervous and/or angry?

Let your child know it’s not OK for this to happen, and that it is not their fault. This validates your child’s feelings. Let them know you support them and are going to help.

A woman holds a girl's hand.
If your child tells you they are being bullied, try and stay calm.
Fizkes/ Shutterstock

What can you do next?

Talk with your child about what to do next.

They may ask you not to go to the school because they are worried it will make things worse for them. Let them know you are taking responsibility for dealing with this now. This means letting the school know, so you can work together to address it.

Gather evidence demonstrating this may not be an isolated incident: what has happened, when, where and over how long. Keep a record of what your child has shared with you, especially images or posts if the bullying is happening online.

How to work with the school

Research shows it is crucial for parents and schools to work together to address all forms of bullying. This means both parties are taking responsibility and sharing all relevant information to stop the bullying and support the victimised child.

Before you formally notify the school, read the school’s anti-bullying policy, so you know what to expect the school to do.

When you come to report your concerns, clearly and calmly tell your child’s story of being bullied. Provide evidence and a timeline to the teacher in writing.

Ask when you can expect a response about what will be done. Check back in and ask for a progress report.

Schools should outline the steps they will take once it has been reported. This includes how long the investigation will take, when they will get back to you, and what they are putting in place to protect your child.

Keep trying

If you don’t find initial responses timely or transparent, you may choose to escalate the matter to the next level.

This could mean speaking to the school principal or a more senior teacher, or eventually contacting your state’s department of education or school’s government body (for non-government schools).

If you need more information, you and your child can get support from KidsHelpine and Youth Law Australia. The eSafety Commissioner also has specific advice about cyberbullying.

You can also find more tips on the federal government’s Bullying No Way Website and its Student Wellbeing Hub.

The Conversation

Deborah Green has received funding from the Commonwealth government to explore bullying.

Barbara Spears has received funding in the past from the Australian Research Council, the Commonwealth government and South Australian government.

ref. What can you do if your child is being bullied? – https://theconversation.com/what-can-you-do-if-your-child-is-being-bullied-250799

Replacing stamp duty with a land tax could save home buyers big money. Here’s how

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Nassios, Associate Professor, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University

Infrastructure Victoria has released a draft 30-year plan outlining how the state can grow sustainably.

It focuses on key areas like transport, housing, energy, and public services to support a growing population and improve liveability. The plan also suggests ways to make the state’s infrastructure and tax system fairer, more efficient and more sustainable.

The plan’s recommendations are expected to cost between A$60 billion and $75 billion, mostly spent before 2035. This is around 10% of Victoria’s yearly economic output in 2023-24, spread over the next decade.

With Victoria already spending record amounts on infrastructure, and budget deficits forecast until 2025-26, finding the money to fund social housing, transport and other projects is a key challenge. We estimate the Infrastructure Victoria proposals would add between $4 billion and $5 billion to Victorian government expenditure each year.

Yet one of its proposals — replacing stamp duty with an annual land tax — would only cost between $1 million and $5 million to implement, but generate substantial gains for Victorian households.

Why replace stamp duty with land tax?

Stamp duty is one of the biggest barriers to moving house in Victoria and other Australian states. This tax, which people pay when they buy property, adds thousands of dollars to the cost of moving.

In 2022-23, Victorians paid about $12 billion to move house. Of this, $3 billion went to actual moving costs (like real estate services, and removalists) and $9 billion was stamp duty.

That’s an effective tax rate of 300% on the true cost of moving, and in 2023 added about $40,000, or 5.3%, to the cost of purchasing the average Victorian home.

High stamp duty discourages people from relocating, even when their needs change — whether that’s moving for a new job, finding a bigger home for a growing family or downsizing after retirement. This leads to longer commutes, traffic congestion and a less efficient housing market. JI: is it worth adding a link for ‘discourages people’?

Switching from stamp duty to an annual land tax would make moving easier and spread the tax burden more fairly.

Instead of a large, one-time tax when buying a home, all landowners would pay a smaller tax each year. This would help fund schools, hospitals, and other infrastructure more sustainably.

What can we learn from Canberra?

Victoria University’s Centre of Policy Studies studied a similar reform in the Australian Capital Territory, where stamp duty has been gradually phased out since 2012 and replaced with higher general rates (a type of land tax).

Each year, the ACT government sets a target for how much money it needs to raise. Landowners then pay a share of that total, based on the value of their land.

One of the biggest benefits of this approach is that it raises money more efficiently. Unlike other taxes, land taxes don’t discourage investment or economic activity.

The study found removing stamp duty had a big positive impact on the ACT’s economy. Around 80% of the economic boost came from removing stamp duty, while introducing land tax also had benefits. By studying transaction data from the ACT, we showed each 10% reduction stamp duty rates drove a 6% rise in property transactions.

Would it help housing affordability?

One of the main arguments for replacing stamp duty with land tax is its effect on housing prices. Economists widely agree land taxes reduce land values, which makes housing more affordable. JI: worth adding a link ‘widely agree’?

However, the impact of removing stamp duty is less predictable. Our previous research found the effect on house prices depends on how often properties are bought and sold. Apartments, for example, tend to change hands more frequently than houses. Because of this, removing stamp duty tends to push up apartment prices more than house prices.

Even so, the overall effect of the reform is a drop in property prices. The challenge is ensuring this price reduction is evenly spread across different types of housing.

A fairer tax system

To make the system fairer, policymakers could adjust how land tax is applied. One option is to introduce a fixed-rate component, as proposed in New South Wales. Another idea, suggested 15 years ago in the Henry Tax Review, is to base the tax on the per-square-metre value of land.

Another key factor is housing supply. If planning laws allow more high-density housing in inner suburbs, price changes could be better managed.

We also need short-term solutions

Replacing stamp duty with land tax is a long-term reform that would take years to fully implement. The ACT, for example, planned a 20-year transition.

If all state governments implemented this reform, we estimate Australian households would ultimately be better off by about $,1600 per household per year.

In the short term, other policies could help improve housing affordability. These include increasing Commonwealth Rent Assistance and rethinking first-home buyer support. These steps could complement broader tax, infrastructure and housing supply reforms.

The Victorian government is seeking feedback on the draft plan before releasing the final version later this year. This is an opportunity for Victorians to contribute ideas on how to shape the state’s future and ensure its infrastructure and tax system work for everyone.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Replacing stamp duty with a land tax could save home buyers big money. Here’s how – https://theconversation.com/replacing-stamp-duty-with-a-land-tax-could-save-home-buyers-big-money-heres-how-251472

Can playing games like Wordle help improve work and workplaces?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kim M Caudwell, Senior Lecturer in Psychology | Chair, Researchers in Behavioural Addictions, Alcohol and Drugs (BAAD), Charles Darwin University

Tada Images/Shutterstock

Do you ever find yourself taking a sneaky few minutes out of your work day to play a game on your phone?

You might try and solve the day’s Wordle – and you wouldn’t be alone. American players rack up a whopping three days a year of game time.

There are hundreds of ways we can distract ourselves from work, and not surprisingly, this can make us feel a bit guilty. Some games have become popular in part due to their low risk of being detected at work.

Managers have long surveilled employees in an effort to reduce distractions, and maximise productivity (as famously satirised in the 1999 cult cinema classic Office Space).

However, meetings, chat and email are now ironically contributing to “digital noise” that undermines productivity and wellbeing.

So, are there any benefits to taking a short break from the grind?

‘Exercising’ your brain

Over the last few decades, there has been a continued interest in whether engaging in brain-stimulating activities – even for short periods – may help “exercise” our brain. There have been claims that activities which engage our attention and memory could prevent cognitive decline in older age.

So, playing something like Wordle might seem a good way to warm our brains up, or help us improve at problem-solving. However, the purported benefits of “brain training” are hotly debated.

A group of colleagues focusing on their devices in separated office cubicles.
Since its viral release in 2021, Wordle has been the subject of many a break-time competition.
dotshock/Shutterstock

Much of this debate relates to what scientists refer to as ecological validity – the extent to which a study’s methods or findings relate to the “real world”. Simple cognitive tasks may have little relevance to the many kinds of cognitive skills we use at work, such as typing an email while in an online meeting.

To improve ecological validity, scientists often strive to create what is termed mundane realism: making the lab feel like the real world, like South Bank University’s “fake pub” in London, used to study drinking culture.

It is difficult to replicate office environments experimentally, and difficult to generalise from one work setting to another.

However, there are some ideas as to how taking breaks that involve games might impact our work and wellbeing in different ways.

Making room for recovery experiences

One way workplace breaks might benefit us is by creating opportunities for recovery experiences: activities that create a sense of detachment or relaxation, and tend to involve a feeling of mastery or control.

Recovery experiences tend to enhance wellbeing and productivity, primarily by reducing exhaustion, or increasing engagement.

Research has shown workplace breaks make people feel more energetic and enthusiastic, and less fatigued. And, video games appear to create recovery experiences.

Facilitating teamwork and enhancing culture

Another way to think about workplace breaks involving games is their potential to create team-building opportunities.

In a way, Wordle sparked a modern workplace watercooler conversation. These have long been thought to improve culture and collaboration.

Wordle workplace discussions have involved colleagues competing for the quickest solves, sharing hints and swapping strategies.

Games which require players to reach a solution may work well in generating conversation, or by simply incorporating fun in an otherwise humdrum work day.

Two women are chatting by water cooler
Discussing games like Worlde could be a modern water cooler conversation.
Connect Images – Legacy/Shutterstock

Research has also shown that playing games with colleagues positively impacts team cohesion and performance, even on a subsequent task. This suggests playing games like Wordle with peers or team members might improve communication skills, and give people valuable experience in working together to solve problems.

This is especially relevant to modern workplaces where employees may not be working in the same location, or could be working on different components of an overarching project.

The de-intensification of work

Given the culture of busyness associated with modern work, we need to ensure employees can make the best use of breaks, including those used for games, to realise any productivity or wellbeing gains.

For example, one study showed that when employees were overstretched, those who engaged in breaks involving cognitive activities tended to feel worse at the end of the workday. So it is important to consider whether taking a break might be restorative, or counterproductive.

We also need to be realistic about our propensity to underestimate how long we are spending taking a break. Spending too much time on non-work related tasks might raise suspicions from colleagues and managers alike – and could create challenging workplace scenarios.

Although, we also need to keep in mind that many work breaks are nevertheless interrupted or cut short by work – which is not good for us either.

Approaches such as the Pomodoro Technique can help us manage work and breaks effectively. Organisations adopting a four-day working week are considering how the technique might get the best out of their employees.

So, taking a few minutes to crack the day’s Wordle as a means to engage in some friendly competition – or as a simple solo endeavour – might be exactly the kind of break we need to optimise work productivity, without undermining our health and wellbeing.

The Conversation

Nothing to disclose

Kim M Caudwell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Can playing games like Wordle help improve work and workplaces? – https://theconversation.com/can-playing-games-like-wordle-help-improve-work-and-workplaces-247689

Many cities are banning ads for airlines, SUVs and fossil fuels – and yours could be next

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Freddie Daley, Research Associate, Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex

aslysun / shutterstock

Towns and cities are pushing ahead with ambitious climate policies, even as global collaboration on climate breakdown splinters. One flagship example is the proliferation of bans on advertising for highly polluting companies and products such as fossil fuels, airlines, luxury travel and SUVs.

In the UK, the cities of Edinburgh and Sheffield have introduced such bans, with billboard ads for fossil fuel companies like Shell and BP, as well as airlines, airports, SUVs, and petrol- or diesel-powered vehicles disappearing from council-owned sites as the policies take hold.

Edinburgh’s city councillors acknowledged that achieving the city’s climate goals required “a shift in society’s perception of success” and that “the promotion of high-carbon products is incompatible with net zero objectives”. Councillors in Sheffield stated that the city’s advertising ban “tackles some of the impacts of consumerism, advertising and injustice”.

Further afield, the Dutch city of The Hague and the Swedish capital of Stockholm have introduced bans, alongside transport networks in Göthenburg, Montreal and Toronto. Many more towns and cities around the world have tabled motions that could blossom into fully functional bans.

Calls for restrictions of advertising on climate grounds have echoed from the top of the United Nations, to the UK’s House of Lords and its public health professionals. Celebrity environmentalists like Chris Packham have also endorsed a ban.

Today’s tobacco

Not long ago, it was common to see adverts compelling us to smoke tobacco products. But thanks to effective campaigning, these ads were removed from billboards, football jerseys, television screens and, eventually, everyday life. Tobacco is the most well known historical precedent, but there have been local bans on alcohol advertising, like one proposed in Scotland, and on junk food, like the one on public transport in London – one of the largest collections of physical and digital advertising spaces on earth.

The logic behind advertising bans is straightforward. By prohibiting the advertisement of certain goods and services, you will reduce the consumption of them and, by extension, the harms associated with their consumption, be it emissions, pollution or disease.

After Transport for London introduced its junk food ban in 2019, there was a significant decrease in Londoners eating foods high in fat, salt and sugar. Within the average London household, there was a reduction of over 1,000 calories, a drop of around 7%. Further analysis suggested that the ad ban might be able to prevent nearly 100,000 cases of obesity, which could save the NHS around £200 million. Similar reductions in consumption have been observed in the wake of tobacco advertising bans.

Advertising is driving the climate crisis

The direct causal link between advertisement and consumption is gaining recognition. Studies have shown that high-carbon advertising increases the demand for these goods and, as a result, drives emissions growth. One 2022 study found that airlines with the biggest advertising budgets had higher ticket sales, suggesting a direct link between ad spend and demand for flights. Another study found that advertising as a whole is responsible for adding 32% to the carbon emissions of every single person in the UK.

Alongside the direct impact of advertising on emissions, high-carbon advertising normalises emissions-intensive forms of consumption, such as frequent air travel. The adverts in question often contain misleading environmental claims, sometimes making people think the climate crisis is less severe or that there is nothing they can do about it.

This is perhaps the more symbolic, but no less pernicious, effect of high-carbon advertising. There is a consensus that phasing out fossil fuels rapidly is essential to stabilising global temperatures and preventing catastrophic impacts, yet these companies spend tens of billions worldwide on advertisements that claim they are “part of the solution”. More often than not, this is a one-way conversation: citizens do not have a right of reply when it comes to giant advertising billboards.

Large car billboard on side of house
The public has no right of reply.
Adfree Cities

Cities see sense

More than 1,000 cities worldwide have net zero targets, and over 130 cities have joined the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. By banning these ads, ambitions and policies can be aligned.

Reducing the demand for emissions-intensive goods and services is an increasingly vital facet of government mitigation strategies. Indeed, the IPCC estimates that demand-side strategies could cut global emissions by between 40% and 70% by 2050. The UK government’s official advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) has recognised that advertising both stimulates demand and shapes norms and aspirations.

With the growth in emissions from SUVs cancelling out progress on decarbonising transport more broadly, it may only be a matter of time before the CCC and other government advisers recommend tighter restrictions on high-carbon advertising.

'A doubles team against the climate'
Guerilla advertising by the artist-activist group Brandalism, in protest of Barclays bank sponsoring Wimbledon tennis.
Brandalism

Ever worsening climate change highlights a tension for the advertising policies of cities and towns. Should they promote the very companies that are undermining public safety, the insurability of their cities, and destroying public spaces through floods, fires and extreme weather events? Some cities have already answered this question with an emphatic “no”.

These bans are more than political gestures – they are a crucial step in reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and aligning public policy with climate science. As climate disasters intensify and the financial burden on cities grows, the question is no longer whether high-carbon advertising should be restricted, but how quickly these policies can be expanded to match the scale of the crisis.

The Conversation

Freddie Daley campaigns on demand reduction for Badvertising.

ref. Many cities are banning ads for airlines, SUVs and fossil fuels – and yours could be next – https://theconversation.com/many-cities-are-banning-ads-for-airlines-suvs-and-fossil-fuels-and-yours-could-be-next-251322

Donald Trump calls Malcolm Turnbull ‘weak and ineffective’ in spat with former prime minister

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Donald Trump has attacked Malcolm Turnbull as “a weak and ineffective leader” after the former prime minister claimed the US president’s style of behaviour was likely to benefit China and said Australia needed to pursue a policy more independent of the United States.

Trump lambasted Turnbull in a social media post, saying, “Malcolm Turnbull, the former prime minister of Australia who was always leading that wonderful country from ‘behind’, never understood what was going on in China, nor did he have the capacity to do so.

“I always thought he was a weak and ineffective leader and, obviously, Australian’s [sic] agreed with me.”

Turnbull, in an interview with Bloomberg, had said the world was now seeing a “much more undiluted Donald Trump the second time around”, and predicted China would take advantage of the president’s behaviour.

China’s President Xi Jinping “will aim to be the exact opposite of Trump. Where Trump is chaotic, he will be consistent. Where Trump is rude and abusive, he will be respectful. Where Trump is erratic, he will be consistent,” Turnbull said.
That would build trust with countries and many would look at “China on the one hand, and Trump on the other and find China a more attractive partner”.

The Trump-Turnbull spat comes as the Albanese government this week awaits the president’s decision on its plea for Australia to be exempted from Trump’s tariffs on aluminium and steel.

The government remains pessimistic, as last-minute lobbying by Australia continues.

Trade Minister Don Farrell said on Monday “Australia and the United States are trusted partners and we are using every opportunity to make known to our friends in America the immense benefits of our partnership”.

Turnbull, whose government secured an exemption from tariffs on these products from the first Trump administration, said he thought it would be “a lot harder” to get one this time.

“Trump will be being told, and I suspect he’ll conclude himself, that you give one country an exemption, then you have to give another and another. And before long there are too many exemptions and you haven’t got much of a tariff. So I suspect it will be on everybody.”

Turnbull said that in his second term Trump was “more determined”. He had a team that was “totally on board” – he was surrounded by “yes men”.

If Trump’s policies triggered a wave of protectionism around the world “that’s clearly going to be bad for business everywhere,” he said.

Turnbull said it appeared the closer countries were to the US the more Trump “feels he can extract value from you, stand over you, extort you.

“Look at the business with Greenland. Is this Denmark’s reward for supporting the Americans in Afghanistan? To have their prime minister rung up and told that her country has to cede one of its territories?

“Is this Canada’s reward for decades of solidarity and alliance, that they should be told they’re just the 51st state and be threatened with tariffs that are going to send the country into a recession?”

(Former banker Mark Carney, who has just won his party’s vote to become Canada’s new prime minister, following Justin Trudeau’s decision to step down, made his claim to be the best person to deal with the trade battle with the Trump administration a central argument in his bid for the leadership.)

Turnbull said Trump did not subscribe to the same values Australia had in the past shared with America – he was not committed to the international rule of law and did not care about treaties and alliances. So Australia would have to work out “how we are going to defend ourselves and how we will pursue a more independent – independent of the United States – approach to international and security affairs”.

The former PM is organising a March 31 conference in Canberra to discuss the alliance and AUKUS in the age of Trump.

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Donald Trump calls Malcolm Turnbull ‘weak and ineffective’ in spat with former prime minister – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-calls-malcolm-turnbull-weak-and-ineffective-in-spat-with-former-prime-minister-251625

Hamas accuses Israel of ‘cheap blackmail’ as Gaza electricity cut-off widely condemned

Asia Pacific Report

Hamas has accused Israel of “cheap and unacceptable blackmail” over its decision to halt the electricity supply to war-ravaged Palestinian enclave of Gaza to pressure the group into releasing the captives.

“We strongly condemn the occupation’s decision to cut off electricity to Gaza, after depriving it of food, medicine, and water,” Izzat al-Risheq, a member of Hamas’s political bureau, said in a statement.

He said it was “a desperate attempt to pressure our people and their resistance through cheap and unacceptable blackmail tactics”.

“Cutting off electricity, closing the crossings, stopping aid, relief and fuel, and starving our people, constitutes collective punishment and a full-fledged war crime,” al-Risheq said.

He accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of attempting “to impose a new roadmap” that prioritised his personal interests.

Israel has been widely condemned for violating the terms of the three-phased ceasefire agreement signed on January 19. It has been trying force “renegotiation” of the terms on Hamas by cutting off food supplies and now electricity.

Albanese slams ‘clean water’ cut off
Francesa Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territory, said Israel’s decision to cut off electricity to Gaza meant “no functioning desalination stations, ergo: no clean water”.

She added that countries that were yet to impose sanctions or an arms embargo on Israel were “AIDING AND ASSISTING Israel in the commission of one of the most preventable genocides of our history”.

According to Human Rights Watch, Israel had already intentionally cut off most ways that Palestinians in Gaza could access water, including by blocking pipelines to Gaza and destroying solar panels used to try to keep some water pumps and desalination and waste management plants running during power outages.

In a December report, the organisation noted that Palestinians in many areas of Gaza had access to 2 to 9 litres (0.5 to 2 gallons) of water for drinking and washing per day, per person, far below the 15-litre (3.3 gallons) per person threshold for survival.

“At this point in the war, I do not believe that Israel, Hamas and America are far apart. I want to see our people home. All of them, not just the Americans,” he added.

Boehler praises Qatar’s role
US President Donald Trump’s envoy on captives, Adam Boehler, said face-to-face talks with Hamas representatives — the first such discussions between the US and the organisation in 28 years — had been “very useful”.

In an interview with Israel’s Channel 13, the envoy dismissed a question by the channel’s reporter, who asked if the US had been “tricked” by Qatar into holding talks with Hamas.

“I don’t think it was a trick by the Qataris at all. It was something we asked for,” he said, reports Al Jazeera.

“They facilitated it. I think the Qataris have been great in this, quite frankly, in a number of different regards. They’ve done a very good job.

“Sometimes, it’s very very hard when you’re talking through intermediaries to understand what people actually want.”

Boehler added that his first question to Hamas was what the movement wanted.

“To me, they said they wanted it [the war] to end. They wanted to give all the prisoners back. They wanted prisoners on the other side. Eventually, we will rebuild Gaza,” he said.

Hamas also knew they would not be in charge of Gaza when the war ended, the US envoy said.

“At this point in the war, I do not believe that Israel, Hamas and America are far apart. I want to see our people home. All of them, not just the Americans,” he added.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

‘A serious wake-up call’: Cyclone Alfred exposes weaknesses in Australia’s vital infrastructure

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cheryl Desha, Visiting Professor, School of Engineering and Built Environment, Sciences Group, Griffith University

Thousands of residents are mopping up in the wake of ex-Cyclone Alfred, which has damaged homes and cars, flooded roads and gouged out beaches.

I write from Brisbane, where rain has fallen for several days. Most of it is draining to a coastline already swollen and eroded by Alfred’s swell.

Flood warnings are current in southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales. Many communities are in danger – some of which have faced multiple floods in recent years.

Despite all this, the damage could have been so much worse – and we may not be so lucky next time. Australia must use Cyclone Alfred as a serious wake-up call to bolster our essential infrastructure against disasters.

A complex picture

Cyclones are incredibly complex. They involve multiple interacting hazards such as severe wind, flooding, storm surge and erosion. This makes their impacts hard to predict.

Alfred meandered slowly off the coast for almost a fortnight, fed by warm waters in the Coral Sea. Its movements were made even more complicated by a new moon, which creates extra-high high tides.

Despite these intricacies, experts were able to map the path and character of the cyclone. This was due to collaboration between multiple agencies and personnel across national, state and local governments.

This information was quickly transmitted to the public via local government emergency dashboards, apps and emergency radio broadcasts, as well as traditional media. The warnings meant communities knew what was coming and could prepare accordingly.

However, Alfred’s force exposed major weaknesses in vital infrastructure.

Electricity outages reached record levels, peaking at more than 300,000 across both states. Queensland Premier David Crisafulli described the outages as that state’s “largest ever loss of power” from a natural hazard.

On the Gold Coast, residents of newly built luxury apartments reported rain penetrating past windows and into homes many storeys above the ground.

Falling trees crushed homes and cars, and in at least one case sparked an electrical fire.

In Queensland and NSW, Alfred flooded and damaged roads, causing scores of road closures and traffic signal outages.

Drawing lessons from nature

As climate change worsens, extreme weather will become more frequent and severe. We must minimise the risks of infrastructure failing during these events. It will require a broad range of measures extending beyond those adopted in the past.

Nature is incredibly resilient. It can offer many lessons to decision-makers, engineers, town planners and others. This approach is known as “biomimicry” – innovation that emulates the forms, processes or systems found in nature.

Connected vegetation such as a line of mature trees, wetlands and mangroves can detain and slow water. This means water passing through has less energy to erode land and topple infrastructure. It also allows for water to soak into the ground, which cleans it and filters out debris.

In flood management, holding ponds known as “detention basins” are used to temporarily store stormwater run-off during heavy rain. City parks can be reshaped or upgraded to become detention basins, holding water until it can safely drain away.

Urban infrastructure could also mimic the swales and earthen mounds found in nature, by incorporating human-made channels and mounds. These would guide water away from communities and infrastructure, to storage above or underground.

And what about our coastlines? Cyclones stir up huge swells which crash on shores and gouge out beaches. Alfred has left extreme sand erosion up and down the coast.

Coastlines are inherently mobile; sand naturally leaves and returns, depending on the weather. To protect our permanent coastal development, sand dune restoration could provide a line of defence in front of built infrastructure. This option has been implemented in the Netherlands, where it was found to be cost-effective.

In Australia, an estimated 17% of mangroves have been destroyed since European settlement. Mangroves naturally buffer the land from wind and storm surge. Reinstating mangroves could help protect coastal communities from future wind damage, as a 2020 study in Fiji showed.

Globally, there is a growing movement towards creating “sponge cities”. These are urban areas rich in natural features such as trees, lakes and parks, which can absorb rain (and sometimes wind) and prevent flooding.

Australia is cottoning on to how nature can help protect our cities. But there is much more work to do.

Experts from James Cook University have been deployed to southeast Queensland to capture immediate data after ex-Cyclone Alfred. They are documenting the effects of extreme wind and other hazards on buildings and infrastructure, and collecting data on wind speeds, water ingress and damage caused by debris.

Hopefully, the findings will inform decision-making on construction, building codes and disaster-resilience strategies for communities.

Building back better

Climate change is expected to cause fewer, but generally more severe, tropical cyclones. Combined with other climate-related changes, such as more intense rainfall and higher sea levels, the risk of flooding associated with cyclones will worsen.

Significant money is already being spent on disaster prevention and preparedness. However, more is needed.

Australians should not need another reminder to proactively reduce the damage caused by extreme weather events. But Alfred has certainly provided one.

As the clean up begins, let’s embrace the opportunity to build back better.

Bureau of Meteorology update dated March 10.

The Conversation

Cheryl Desha works for Natural Hazards Research Australia, which receives government and participant funding. Natural Hazards Research Australia’s funded research includes tropical cyclones and floods, spanning the physical impacts of cyclones, analysis of fatalities after natural hazards, how people are affected by extreme disasters and the benefits of mitigation. She is affiliated with Engineers Australia, and the International Society of Digital Earth.

ref. ‘A serious wake-up call’: Cyclone Alfred exposes weaknesses in Australia’s vital infrastructure – https://theconversation.com/a-serious-wake-up-call-cyclone-alfred-exposes-weaknesses-in-australias-vital-infrastructure-251814

Thousands in Melbourne rally for International Women’s Day, Gaza

By Mary Merkenich in Naarm/Melbourne

More than 2000 people — mostly women and union members — marked International Women’s Day two days early last week on March 6 with a lively rally and march in Melbourne, capital of the Australian state of Victoria.

Chants of “Women united will never be defeated”, “Tell me what a feminist looks like? This is what a feminist looks like” and “When women’s rights are under attack, what do we do? Stand up! Fight back!” rang through the streets.

Speakers addressed the inequality women still faced at work and in society, the leading roles women play in many struggles for justice, including for First Nations rights, against the junta in Myanmar, against Israel’s genocide in Gaza/Palestine, and against oppressive regimes like that in Iran.


“Palestine is not for sale.”  Video: Green Left

When Michelle O’Neill, president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) spoke, some women chanted “CFMEU” to demonstrate their displeasure at the ACTU’s complicity in attacks against that union.

The rally also marched to Victoria’s Parliament House.

Republished from Green Left.

in Auckland, Aotearoa New Zealand, activists marked International Women’s Day on Saturday and the start of Ramadan this week with solidarity rallies across the country, calling for justice and peace for Palestinian women and the territories occupied illegally by Israel.

The theme this year for IWD was “For all women and girls: Rights. Equality. Empowerment” and this was the 74th week of Palestinian solidarity protests.

The IWD protesters at the Victorian Parliament. Image: Jordan AK/Green Left

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The sting in Alfred’s tail: severe rain and flood risk as storms loom over Queensland and northern NSW

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity Australia

Ex-Cyclone Alfred has passed. However, residents of northern New South Wales and parts of Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast should be on high alert for bands of intense rainfall and possible flash flooding.

This is the sting in Alfred’s tail. These storms are drawing down very warm, moist air from the Coral Sea in the north. If you happen to be under one of these slow-moving thunderstorms, they are getting ready to dump a lot of rain.

The situation is very volatile, as the atmosphere is very unstable.

What’s happening now?

Thankfully, the winds have died down in many parts of eastern Australia affected by ex-Cyclone Alfred, but the main concern now is these intense thunderstorms popping up in a fast-changing atmosphere.

The Bureau of Meteorology issued a severe weather warning around 11am (NSW time) on Monday, predicting heavy rainfall over the Northern Rivers, Northern Tablelands, Mid North Coast and the North West Slopes and Plains.

A similar severe weather warning has been issued for a large part of southeast Queensland, including inland areas.

It also issued flood warnings for many parts of Queensland, including Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

Radar images showed large bands of heavy rain hovering over the east coast.

This is a significant weather event because these rainbands are stretching from as far north as Bundaberg in Queensland, right down to Inverell and further south in NSW. And if you’re under one of these rain bands, there’s a risk of flash flooding.

The steering winds are quite weak, so they are moving quite slowly and dumping huge amounts of rain as they go.

Why is this happening?

Winds in the atmosphere are colliding with each other, and when they do, air is forced to rise. If the air is saturated and warm, it contains huge amounts of water.

The air cools as it rises and eventually reaches the temperature at which saturated air condenses and turns into water. Then, down comes the rain.

All of this is now happening over an extraordinarily large area.

Some of these storms may last just a few hours, but may dump phenomenal amounts of rain. Our drainage infrastructure is just not set up for this. It’s quite rare to have this amount of rain falling in such a short amount of time.

In some places, the water will rise very quickly because the catchments are already saturated from days of rain.

The hope is that conditions improve in the evening. But right now, people need to be vigilant.

The below flood maps were updated by Brisbane City Council over the weekend and show the areas at risk.



Climate change is increasing the risks

This situation has been made worse by the fact sea-surface temperatures off the coast of Australia are warmer than average.

Due to rising greenhouse gases from human activities, the atmosphere is trapping more heat. About 90% of this excess energy is transferring into the world’s oceans.

There it is stored, ready to feed heat and moisture into the atmosphere through evaporation. Even a small amount of warming of the atmosphere means the air can hold much more water.

This warmer atmosphere is feeding flash floods.

In the months ahead, authorities must think hard about how to protect our cities and towns from this ever-growing risk.

Steve Turton has previously received funding from the federal government.

ref. The sting in Alfred’s tail: severe rain and flood risk as storms loom over Queensland and northern NSW – https://theconversation.com/the-sting-in-alfreds-tail-severe-rain-and-flood-risk-as-storms-loom-over-queensland-and-northern-nsw-251817

Greenland votes on March 11. Independence was the key issue, but Trump has changed the campaign

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Qvortrup, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for European Studies, Australian National University

“We don’t want to be Danes or Americans”, Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede told Fox News recently. He wants his country to be independent and plans to hold a referendum.

But this is no longer the main issue for Greenlanders as the world’s largest island votes in a general election on March 11.

US President Donald Trump has declared it is absolutely necessary for America to take over Greenland – and he will not be deterred. He even refused to rule out using military or economic force.

The Danish territory is now the subject of international controversy. And that has altered the trajectory of the election.

Greenland’s territory status

The name Greenland was invented by Viking Erik den Röde, who encountered the territory around 990 and wanted to lure his compatriots to the island.

Since the 1950s, America has operated an airbase in Thule in the north of the island.

However, at present, the territory – roughly the size of Mexico but with a population of just 56,000 people – is part of Denmark. The Vikings never left.

Greenland today

In the early 1950s, Greenland became a county of Denmark, and in 1979, it was given its own devolved parliament – with powers to make laws.

Its single-chamber parliament in Nuuk – the territory’s capital – is called the Inatsisartut in Greenlandic, which means “those who make the laws”. Apart from defence and foreign affairs, all of these are made by the Greenlanders.

Independence from Denmark only became an issue in the early 2000s, but it was not seriously debated before 2008 when Denmark agreed to Greenland’s future status.

Part of the deal was that the money Denmark sends Greenland every year (known as a “block grant”) will be reduced as mineral mining starts paying for public services. The agreement was passed in a referendum in 2008, which also gives Greenland the right to secede at a time of its choosing.

The incumbent Egede is the leader of the left-wing Inuit Ataqatigiit party, which wants independence from Denmark. So does the centrist party Naleraq.

The two parties have have a combined 16 of the 31 seats in the parliament. However, some members of other parties – including the previously unionist Siumut (which is currently part of the government) – have signalled a gradual shift. So, the actual number of members that would vote for independence is likely to be slightly higher.

Independence is opposed by the conservative Demokraatit party, the centre-left Siumut party and the centre-right Atasut party. The Demokraatit party has become more popular than the Siumut and Atasut parties. The latter two used to dominate Greenlandic politics but have struggled in the past few years.

Will there be a referendum?

The current government is a centre-left coalition of Egede’s Inuit Ataqatigiit and Siumut. The two parties agreed to disagree on the issue of independence, but that could change after the election. And, even the Siumut parliamentary leader Doris J. Jensen has expressed guarded support for breaking free from Copenhagen.

Although Naleraq and Inuit Ataqatigiit are ideologically apart, it seems likely they will call for a referendum after the election (should they win a majority).

A territory unilaterally calling a referendum on independence would usually be unconstitutional in most countries. The Spanish government called a 2017 independence referendum in Catalonia unconstitutional and responded with a police crackdown.

But Greenland is different. In 2009, the Danish parliament passed a law allowing the Greenlanders to hold a vote on independence at the time of their choosing.

Greenland has an abundance of critical minerals, including copper, tungsten and even platinum – albeit mostly buried under the ice.

It is likely access to these minerals is what is driving Trump’s interest in Kalaallit Nunaat (“the land of the people”), as Greenland’s Inuit people call their country.

Until recently, this was not the main issue on most voters’ agendas. Many in Greenland are more concerned with bread and butter issues such as welfare and the cost of living than with underground resources. But Trump’s interest in the island has changed the debate.

The election as it stands

The current government parties have lost ground. Inuit Ataqatigiit’s projected vote share is down from 37% to 31%, and Siumut’s will – according to polls – be reduced from 29% to 21%.

The main beneficiaries of the unpopularity of the present government are Demokraatit and Naleraq. The former stands to double its vote share to 18%, 2% ahead of the latter.

The overall percentage of parties that support independence has not changed.

Whatever the result of the election, neither side wants to become Americans.

The parties may not agree on whether they want to continue their 1,000-year union with Denmark, but they agree with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s message to Donald Trump: “Greenland is not for sale”.

Anders Vistisen, a Danish member of the European parliament for the Nationalist Dansk Folkeparti, put it even more succinctly. He told the assembly recently:

Let me put it into words you might understand. Mr Trump, fuck off.

None of the parties have expressed sympathy for being part of the US, but all are happy to discuss future collaboration on defence. All of them, in different ways, are open to exploring the possibility of minerals exploration but sympathy in Greenland for Trump’s position is non-existent.

The Conversation

Matt Qvortrup does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Greenland votes on March 11. Independence was the key issue, but Trump has changed the campaign – https://theconversation.com/greenland-votes-on-march-11-independence-was-the-key-issue-but-trump-has-changed-the-campaign-250042

Concern US presence could run against Marshall Islands nuclear-free treaty

By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist, and Susana Suisuiki, RNZ Pacific Waves presenter/producer

Marshall Islands defence provisions could “fairly easily” be considered to run against the nuclear-free treaty that they are now a signatory to, says a veteran Pacific journalist and editor.

The South Pacific’s nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament treaty, known as the Treaty of Rarotonga, was signed in Majuro last week during the observance of Nuclear Victims Remembrance Day.

RNZ Pacific’s Marshall Islands correspondent Giff Johnson, who is also editor of the weekly newspaper Marshall Islands Journal, said many people assumed the Compact of Free Association — which gives the US military access to the island nation — was in conflict with the treaty.

However, Johnson said the signing of the treaty was only the first step.

“The US said there was no issue with the Marshall Islands signing the treaty because that does not bring the treaty into force,” he said.

“I would expect that there would not be a move to ratify the treaty soon . . . with the current situation in Washington this is going to be kicked down the road a bit.”

He said the US military routinely brought in naval vessels and planes into the Marshall Islands.

“Essentially, the US policy neither confirms nor denies the presence of nuclear weapons on board aircraft or vessels or whether they’re nuclear powered.

‘Clearly spelled out defence’
“The US is allowed to carry out its responsibility which is very clearly spelled out to defend and provide defence for the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia and Palau.

“So yes, I think you could fairly easily make the case that the activity at Kwajalein and the compact’s defence provisions do run foul of the spirit of a nuclear-free treaty.”

Johnson said the US and the Marshall Islands would need to work out how it would deliver its defence and security including the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defence Test Site, where weapon systems are routinely tested on Kwajalein Atoll.

Meanwhile, the Greenpeace flagship Rainbow Warrior will be visiting the Marshall Islands next week to support the government on gathering data to support further nuclear compensation.

“What we are hoping to do is provide that independent science that currently is not in the Marshall Islands,” the organisation’s Pacific lead Shiva Gounden told RNZ Pacific Waves.

“Most of the science that happens in on the island is mostly been funded or taken control by the US government and the Marshallese people, rightly so, do not trust that data. Do not trust that sample collection.”

Top-secret lab study
The Micronesian nation experienced 67 atmospheric nuclear tests between 1946 and 1958, resulting in an ongoing legacy of death, illness, and contamination.

In 2017, the Marshall Islands government created the National Nuclear Commission to coordinate efforts to address the impacts from testing.

Gounden said Project 4.1 — which was the top-secret medical lab study on the effects of radiation on human bodies — has caused distrust of US data.

“The Marshallese people do not trust any scientific data or science coming out from the US,” he said.

“So they have asked us to see if we can assist in gathering samples and collecting data that is independent from the US that could assist in at least giving them a clear picture of what’s happening right now in those atolls.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

How ocean giants are born: tracking the long-distance impact and danger of extreme swells

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Shand, Honorary Senior Lecturer, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Strong waves originating from the North Pacific batter the promenade in Viña del Mar, Chile, on December 29 2024. Getty Images

Late last year, a massive ocean swell caused by a low pressure system in the North Pacific generated waves up to 20 metres high, and damaged coastlines and property thousands of kilometres from its source.

Two years earlier, another storm system southeast of New Zealand also whipped up massive waves, with the swell reaching as far as Canada, battering Pacific island coasts along the way.

These storms, and the swells they create, are facts of nature. But while we understand a lot about the extraordinary forces at work, we can still do more to predict their impact and coordinate global warning systems.

How big waves are born

Waves are made by wind blowing over a water surface. The longer and stronger the wind blows, the more energy is transferred into those waves.

As well as an increase in wave height, sustained high wind speeds generate waves with a longer period – that is, the distance or time between successive wave crests. Oceanographers refer to the mix of wave heights and periods (and to some extent directions) as a “sea” state.

Once the wind stops blowing, or the sea moves away from the wind that is generating it, the waves become swell and start to separate. The longest-period waves move fastest and shorter-period waves more slowly.

Most waves resulting from a storm have periods of 12–16 seconds, with the individual waves travelling at speeds of 60–80km per hour.

But very large storms with high, sustained winds can generate waves with periods of more than 20 seconds. These waves travel much faster, over 100km per hour in the open ocean, and their energy (which travels more slowly than individual waves) can cover 1,500km in 24 hours.

Ocean waves, particularly long-period swells, lose very little energy as they travel. And unless they collide with an island and break, they are capable of travelling great distances.

By comparison, shorter period waves take much longer to travel and lose more energy. If they encounter a wind field moving in another direction, this also removes energy and reduces their height.

But sometimes, a particularly strong storm system can generate long-period waves with enough energy to travel across the Pacific, reaching shores thousands of kilometres away.

A unique characteristic of such long-range swells is that individual waves contain a lot more energy than shorter-period local waves. They grow to greater heights as they “shoal” in shallow water, and can hit shorelines and structures with greater force, causing more damage and danger.


Waves are generated by wind blowing over water with the distribution of energy changing dependent on their stage of evolution.
CC BY-NC-ND

The ‘Code Red 2’ swell

The “Code Red 2” swell was a good example of this in action. It was generated by a massive storm system southeast of New Zealand in July 2022. The “significant wave height”, or average of the largest third of the system’s waves, reached 13 metres. Individual waves were up to twice this height.

The storm system was unusual due to very strong southerly winds blowing northweard from near Antarctica for over 2,000km. This resulted in long-period (20 second) swells moving north into the Pacific Ocean.

The swell first reached Tahiti, where waves closed most of the south-facing coast, prompting a Code Red warning. This was only the second such warning since 2011 (hence its name), and resulted in massive waves at the Teahupo’o surf break, location of the 2024 Olympic surfing event.

The swell also caused flooding along the south coast of Rarotonga and other Pacific Islands before continuing north across the equator to reach the south coast of Hawaii – 7,000km from where it was generated.

Due to their direction and very long period, large waves reached places they don’t usually affect, literally crashing weddings and breaking over houses. The swell then carried on to hit the Californian coast some 10,000km away, and eventually reaching Canada more than a week after it was initially generated.


Tracking the July 2022 Code Red II swell across the Pacific.
CC BY-NC-ND

The ‘Eddie’ swell

More recently, the 2024 “Eddie” swell was generated from an extremely intense low pressure system in the North Pacific in December 2024. Waves near the centre of the storm reached heights of 20 metres, with a 22-second period.

The resulting swell hit Hawaii first, where waves were large enough to run the Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational at Waimea Bay, a surfing event that requires such large waves it has only been run 11 times in its 40-year history (and which gave the swell its name).

This extreme swell then reached California 3,000km away, where it also generated giant surf, damaged boats in coastal marinas and caused part of the Santa Cruz wharf to collapse.

Due to its very long period, the swell was able to continue southward, still with a lot of energy. It reached the north coast of Ecuador and Peru, 8,500km from where it began, where it destroyed fishing boats. And it finally hit Chile, 11,000km from its source, where it closed ports and inundated coastal promenades.

These coasts typically receive large southwest swells. But this rare, long-period north swell was able to reach normally protected north-facing sections of coast, causing uncharacteristic damage.


Tracking the December 2024 Eddie swell across the Pacific.
CC BY-NC-ND

Predicting local impacts

It can be difficult to sound warnings for these types of long-period waves, as they are generated so far from the affected shorelines they are missed by local forecasters and emergency managers.

Global wave models such as those driven by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction are capable of predicting and tracking these swells but require a more nuanced approach to predicting local impacts.

New early warning systems are being developed that take global wave forecasts and downscale them to take into account the shape of the local coastline. The wave information is then combined with predictions of tide and storm surge to give warnings of when coastal impacts may occur.

These systems will give emergency managers, ports and coastal infrastructure operators – and the public – better information and more time to prepare for these damaging wave events.

The Conversation

Tom Shand is affiliated with the Engineering Consultancy Tonkin + Taylor and with the industry association PIANC (World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure).

ref. How ocean giants are born: tracking the long-distance impact and danger of extreme swells – https://theconversation.com/how-ocean-giants-are-born-tracking-the-long-distance-impact-and-danger-of-extreme-swells-247182

Anthony Albanese gains in Newspoll, but the race remains neck-and-neck

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll, conducted March 3–7 from a sample of 1,255, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all Others (down two).

Newspoll is using a stronger One Nation preference flow to the Coalition than occurred at the 2022 election. By 2022 preference flows, this poll would be near a 50–50 tie.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval jumped nine points to -12, with 53% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -14. Albanese extended his better PM lead over Dutton to 47–38 (45–40 previously).

This is the first time Albanese has had a better net approval than Dutton since September 2024, and also his biggest better PM lead since then. It’s not always the case, but sometimes movements in leaders’ ratings come before a gain in voting intentions.

In the other polls released in the last week, Labor gained a 51–49 lead in a YouGov poll, but the Coalition regained a narrow lead in both the Essential and Morgan polls.

The graph below shows Labor’s two-party vote in national polls. While still narrowly behind, Labor is doing better than they were two weeks ago.

This is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are the data points and a trend line has been fitted. The trend line will need a sustained improvement for Albanese before it turns up.

In an additional Newspoll question, by 55–45 respondents said they were not confident that the Dutton Coalition is ready to govern Australia.

Labor gains lead in a YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll, conducted February 28 to March 6 from a sample of 1,504, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the February 21–27 YouGov poll. This is the first Labor lead in YouGov since July 2024. YouGov will be releasing weekly voting intentions until the election.

Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (up three), 13% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (down one), 1% for Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots (steady) 10% independents (steady) and 2% others (steady). YouGov is using preference flows that are weaker for Labor than at the 2022 election, and by 2022 election flows Labor would lead by more than 52–48.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -9, with 51% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval slid two points to -4. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–39 (42–40 previously).

Essential poll: Coalition takes narrow lead

A national Essential poll, conducted February 26 to March 2 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided using respondent preferences (a 48–48 tie in mid-February). The Coalition has been narrowly ahead since early December except for the previous poll.

Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 29% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 8% One Nation (down one), 1% UAP (steady), 10% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (up one). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about an unchanged 51–49. Essential should have replaced UAP with Clive Palmer’s new Trumpet of Patriots party.

Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -8, with 49% disapproving and 41% approving. Dutton’s net approval was up one to -3. By 49–34, voters thought Australia was on the wrong track (51–31 previously).

Essential’s party trusted to handle issues were better for Labor than other issue polls by Resolve and Freshwater. Labor led the Coalition by 33–27 on addressing cost of living pressures and only trailed by 30–29 on managing the economy.

Overall, 52% said they were committed to their vote, including 65% of Coalition supporters and 52% of Labor supporters.

Morgan poll: Coalition retakes narrow lead

A national Morgan poll, conducted February 24 to March 2 from a sample of 1,673, gave the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the February 17–23 Morgan poll that was probably a pro-Labor outlier.

Primary votes were 40% Coalition (up 3.5), 28.5% Labor (down three), 13.5% Greens (steady), 4% One Nation (down one), 10.5% independents (up 0.5) and 3.5% others (steady). By 2022 election flows, there was a 50–50 tie, a three-point gain for the Coalition.

By 52–31.5, respondents thought the country is going in the wrong direction (49.5–34.5 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index fell 2.1 points to 87.7.

Economy has best quarterly growth for two years

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the December quarter GDP report last Wednesday. The economy grew 0.6% in December, up from 0.3% in the September quarter. This was the best growth since December 2022, when the economy grew 0.7%.

There was much media attention on the 0.8% annual growth rate after the September quarter GDP was released in December. The annual growth for the year to December was 1.3%, after the weak December 2023 quarter (0.1% growth) was replaced with this stronger quarter.

GDP per capita rose 0.1% in the December quarter, after dropping in the seven quarters from March 2023 to September 2024.

Carney wins Canadian Liberal leadership

Mark Carney has been elected Canadian federal Liberal leader today and will replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister. I covered this for The Poll Bludger. The Liberals have surged back from way behind the Conservatives in the Canadian polls.

I also wrote about US, Austrian and German electoral developments.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Anthony Albanese gains in Newspoll, but the race remains neck-and-neck – https://theconversation.com/anthony-albanese-gains-in-newspoll-but-the-race-remains-neck-and-neck-251352

Labor gains in some opinion polls, but the race remains neck-and-neck

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll, conducted March 3–7 from a sample of 1,255, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all Others (down two).

Newspoll is using a stronger One Nation preference flow to the Coalition than occurred at the 2022 election. By 2022 preference flows, this poll would be near a 50–50 tie.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval jumped nine points to -12, with 53% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -14. Albanese extended his better PM lead over Dutton to 47–38 (45–40 previously).

This is the first time Albanese has had a better net approval than Dutton since September 2024, and also his biggest better PM lead since then. It’s not always the case, but sometimes movements in leaders’ ratings come before a gain in voting intentions.

In the other polls released in the last week, Labor gained a 51–49 lead in a YouGov poll, but the Coalition regained a narrow lead in both the Essential and Morgan polls.

The graph below shows Labor’s two-party vote in national polls. While still narrowly behind, Labor is doing better than they were two weeks ago.

This is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are the data points and a trend line has been fitted. The trend line will need a sustained improvement for Albanese before it turns up.

In an additional Newspoll question, by 55–45 respondents said they were not confident that the Dutton Coalition is ready to govern Australia.

Labor gains lead in a YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll, conducted February 28 to March 6 from a sample of 1,504, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the February 21–27 YouGov poll. This is the first Labor lead in YouGov since July 2024. YouGov will be releasing weekly voting intentions until the election.

Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (up three), 13% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (down one), 1% for Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots (steady) 10% independents (steady) and 2% others (steady). YouGov is using preference flows that are weaker for Labor than at the 2022 election, and by 2022 election flows Labor would lead by more than 52–48.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -9, with 51% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval slid two points to -4. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–39 (42–40 previously).

Essential poll: Coalition takes narrow lead

A national Essential poll, conducted February 26 to March 2 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided using respondent preferences (a 48–48 tie in mid-February). The Coalition has been narrowly ahead since early December except for the previous poll.

Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 29% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 8% One Nation (down one), 1% UAP (steady), 10% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (up one). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about an unchanged 51–49. Essential should have replaced UAP with Clive Palmer’s new Trumpet of Patriots party.

Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -8, with 49% disapproving and 41% approving. Dutton’s net approval was up one to -3. By 49–34, voters thought Australia was on the wrong track (51–31 previously).

Essential’s party trusted to handle issues were better for Labor than other issue polls by Resolve and Freshwater. Labor led the Coalition by 33–27 on addressing cost of living pressures and only trailed by 30–29 on managing the economy.

Overall, 52% said they were committed to their vote, including 65% of Coalition supporters and 52% of Labor supporters.

Morgan poll: Coalition retakes narrow lead

A national Morgan poll, conducted February 24 to March 2 from a sample of 1,673, gave the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the February 17–23 Morgan poll that was probably a pro-Labor outlier.

Primary votes were 40% Coalition (up 3.5), 28.5% Labor (down three), 13.5% Greens (steady), 4% One Nation (down one), 10.5% independents (up 0.5) and 3.5% others (steady). By 2022 election flows, there was a 50–50 tie, a three-point gain for the Coalition.

By 52–31.5, respondents thought the country is going in the wrong direction (49.5–34.5 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index fell 2.1 points to 87.7.

Economy has best quarterly growth for two years

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the December quarter GDP report last Wednesday. The economy grew 0.6% in December, up from 0.3% in the September quarter. This was the best growth since December 2022, when the economy grew 0.7%.

There was much media attention on the 0.8% annual growth rate after the September quarter GDP was released in December. The annual growth for the year to December was 1.3%, after the weak December 2023 quarter (0.1% growth) was replaced with this stronger quarter.

GDP per capita rose 0.1% in the December quarter, after dropping in the seven quarters from March 2023 to September 2024.

Carney wins Canadian Liberal leadership

Mark Carney has been elected Canadian federal Liberal leader today and will replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister. I covered this for The Poll Bludger. The Liberals have surged back from way behind the Conservatives in the Canadian polls.

I also wrote about US, Austrian and German electoral developments.

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Labor gains in some opinion polls, but the race remains neck-and-neck – https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-some-opinion-polls-but-the-race-remains-neck-and-neck-251352

Luamanuvao reflects on International Women’s Day and ‘Pacific dreams’

International Women’s Day, March 8, is an opportunity to celebrate the achievements of women around the world.

Closer to home, here in Aotearoa New Zealand, we can take a moment to acknowledge Pasifika women, and in particular the contributions of Luamanuvao Dame Winnie Laban.

For her, “International Women’s day is an opportunity to acknowledge Pasifika women’s contribution to economic, social, and cultural development in New Zealand and our Pacific region.”

Luamanuvao has a significant string of “firsts” in her resume, including becoming the first Pasifika woman to be elected to Parliament in 1999.

Growing up, she drew great motivation from her parents’ immigrant story.

She told RNZ Pacific that she often contemplated their journey to New Zealand from Samoa on a boat. Sailing with them were their dreams for a better life.

When she became the first Samoan woman to be made a dame in 2018, she spoke about how her success was a manifestation of those dreams.

‘Hard work and sacrifice’
“And it is that hard work and sacrifice that for me makes me reflect on why this award is so important.

“Because it acknowledges the Pacific journey of sacrifice and dreams. But more importantly, bringing up a generation who must make the best use of their opportunities.”

Luamanuvao Dame Winnie Laban and supporters during an International Women’s day event in Wellington. Image: RNZ Pacific

After serving as assistant Vice-Chancellor (Pasifika) at Te Herenga Waka/Victoria University since 2010, Dame Winnie is stepping down. As she prepares to move on from that role, she spoke to RNZ Pacific about the importance of Pasifika women in society.

“Our women teach us that our strength and resilience is in our relationship, courage to do what is right, respect and ability to work together, stay together and look after and support each other,” she said.

“We are also reminded of the powerful women from our communities who are strong leaders and contributors to the welfare and wellbeing of our families and communities.

“They are the sacred weavers of our ie toga, tivaevae, latu, bilum and masi that connect our genealogy and our connection to each other.

“Our Pacific Ocean is our mother and she binds us together. This is our enduring legacy.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

‘Vague, confusing, and did nothing to improve my work’: how AI can undermine peer review

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Hugh Barker, Senior Research Fellow, School of Public Health, University of Adelaide

Eon eren/Shutterstock

Earlier this year I received comments on an academic manuscript of mine as part of the usual peer review process, and noticed something strange.

My research focuses on ensuring trustworthy evidence is used to inform policy, practice and decision making. I often collaborate with groups like the World Health Organization to conduct systematic reviews to inform clinical and public health guidelines or policy. The paper I had submitted for peer review was about systematic review conduct.

What I noticed raised my concerns about the growing role artificial intelligence (AI) is playing in the scientific process.

A service to the community

Peer review is fundamental to academic publishing, ensuring research is rigorously critiqued prior to publication and dissemination. In this process researchers submit their work to a journal where editors invite expert peers to provide feedback. This benefits all involved.

For peer reviewers, it is favourably considered when applying for funding or promotion as it is seen as a service to the community. For researchers, it challenges them to refine their methodologies, clarify their arguments, and address weaknesses to prove their work is publication worthy. For the public, peer review ensures that the findings of research are trustworthy.

Even at first glance the comments I received on my manuscript in January this year seemed odd.

First, the tone was far too uniform and generic. There was also an unexpected lack of nuance, depth or personality. And the reviewer had provided no page or line numbers and no specific examples of what needed to be improved to guide my revisions.

For example, they suggested I “remove redundant explanations”. However, they didn’t indicate which explanations were redundant, or even where they occurred in the manuscript.

They also suggested I order my reference list in a bizarre manner which disregarded the journal requirements and followed no format that I have seen replicated in a scientific journal. They provided comments pertaining to subheadings that didn’t exist.

And although the journal required no “discussion” section, the peer reviewer had provided the following suggestion to improve my non-existent discussion: “Addressing future directions for further refinement of [the content of the paper] would enhance the paper’s forward-looking perspective”.

The output from ChatGPT about the manuscript was similar to the comments from a peer reviewer.
Diego Thomazini/Shutterstock

Testing my suspicions

To test my suspicions the review was, at least in part, written by AI, I uploaded my own manuscript to three AI models – ChatGPT-4o, Gemini 1.5Pro and DeepSeek-V3. I then compared comments from the peer review with the models’ output.

For example, the comment from the peer reviewer regarding the abstract read:

Briefly address the broader implications of [main output of paper] for systematic review outcomes to emphasise its importance.

The output from ChatGPT-4o regarding the abstract read:

Conclude with a sentence summarising the broader implications or potential impact [main output of paper] on systematic reviews or evidence-based practice.

The comment from the peer reviewer regarding the methods read:

Methodological transparency is commendable, with detailed documentation of the [process we undertook] and the rationale behind changes. Alignment with [gold standard] reporting requirements is a strong point, ensuring compatibility with current best practices.

The output from ChatGPT-4o regarding the methods read:

Clearly describes the process of [process we undertook], ensuring transparency in methodology. Emphasises the alignment of the tool with [gold standard] guidelines, reinforcing methodological rigour.

But the biggest red flag was the difference between the peer-reviewer’s feedback and the feedback of the associate editor of the journal I had submitted my manuscript to. Where the associate editor’s feedback was clear, instructive and helpful, the peer reviewer’s feedback was vague, confusing, and did nothing to improve my work.

I expressed my concerns directly to the editor-in-chief. To their credit, I was met with immediate thanks for flagging the issues and for documenting my investigation – which, they said, was “concerning and revealing”.

The feedback about the manuscript from the journal’s associate editor was clear, instructive and helpful.
Mikhail Nilov/Pexels

Careful oversight is needed

I do not have definitive proof the peer review of my manuscript was AI-generated. But the similarities between the comments left by the peer reviewer, and the output from the AI models was striking.

AI models make research faster, easier and more accessible. However, their implementation as a tool to assist in peer review requires careful oversight, with current guidance on AI use in peer review being mixed, and its effectiveness unclear.

If AI models are to be used in peer review, authors have the right to be informed and given the option to opt out. Reviewers also need to disclose the use of AI in their review. However, the enforcement of this remains an issue and needs to fall to the journals and editors to ensure peer reviewers who use AI models inappropriately are flagged.

I submitted my research for “expert” review by my peers in the field, yet received AI-generated feedback that ultimately failed to improve my work. Had I accepted these comments without question – and if the associate editor had not provided such exemplary feedback – there is every chance this could have gone unnoticed.

My work may have been accepted for publication without being properly scrutinised, disseminated into the public as “fact” corroborated by my peers, despite my peers not actually reviewing this work themselves.

Timothy Hugh Barker is the chair of the RIPPER (Research Integrity and Predatory Practices in Evidence Reviews) Working Group. This group conduct research into the imapct that fraudulent and erroneous data and predatory journals have on evidence syntheses. He is the the deputy-director of the Adelaide GRADE Centre and a Senior Research Fellow of Health Evidence Synthesis, Recommendations and Impact (HESRI) at the University of Adelaide.

ref. ‘Vague, confusing, and did nothing to improve my work’: how AI can undermine peer review – https://theconversation.com/vague-confusing-and-did-nothing-to-improve-my-work-how-ai-can-undermine-peer-review-251040

Labor is promising a national food security strategy – but there’s no mention of Australians who are going hungry

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liesel Spencer, Associate Professor, School of Law, Western Sydney University

Australia’s food security is on the political agenda, with Labor flagging a new national strategy if it is re-elected for a second term.

“Feeding Australia” would build-in ways to make the agricultural sector more resilient. This industry focus is important, but it is only part of what the plan needs to achieve. Food security is about more than just food production and supply chains.

We also need the strategy to deal with chronic long-term food insecurity, which is defined by the United Nations as a lack of consistent access to adequate, safe and nutritious food.

According to food relief charity Foodbank, too many Australians simply don’t have enough to eat because of ongoing poverty and the cost-of-living crisis.

An abundance of food, but not enough to eat

Genuine food security means all Australians have consistent access to healthy food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences.

This is not the same thing as our farmers producing enough to hypothetically feed the whole country. In fact, we already do that, and more, with food exports sustaining a further 60 million people overseas.

Despite this abundance, not everyone has access to a fair share of food. Foodbank’s 2024 Hunger Report found 48% of Australians earning less than A$30,000 a year are food insecure, up 5% from 2022. Overall, the charity estimates almost one in three Australian households are either moderately or severely food insecure.

We have to rely on survey data from charities and researchers to understand the extent of Australia’s food security problem because no government has formally measured
food insecurity in Australia since 2011. Evidence-based policy needs reliable data, so the national strategy should include a commitment to regularly measure people’s access to food.

Vulnerable Australians

Some groups of Australians are more vulnerable to food insecurity. These include single parents, homeless and older people, and people from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds. University students are also at higher risk.

The impact of the pandemic, compounded by the cost-of-living crisis, is even causing problems for some two income households with mortgages. Some in this group are experiencing food insecurity for the first time according to Foodbank.

A 2023 federal parliamentary report on food security made 35 recommendations. They include specific measures to improve household food security, such as:

  • investigating the feasibility of a school meals program

  • developing basic cooking skills as part of school curriculum

  • assisting community projects for local food systems

  • improving food security in remote and First Nations communities.

However the Feeding Australia strategy announcement makes no mention of these.

Remote challenges

Food insecurity is more prevalent and severe in remote regions, especially in many Indigenous communities, where high grocery prices and a lack of fresh food make putting healthy produce on the table a daily challenge.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently announced a federal scheme to ensure the cost of 30 essential items in remote stores is on par with city prices for the same items. This is part of a just-released federal ten-year strategy to improve food security in First Nations communities.

While these measures are welcome, the Feeding Australia plan must heed the particular challenges faced by First Nations people when it comes to sustaining healthy diets.

No overarching strategy

It all comes back to a lack of coordinated approach to feeding the nation. Australia continues to lag the rest of the world in food security policy.

The Economist’s Global Food Security Index measures 113 countries across a range of indicators including affordability, availability and quality.

Australia scores a flat zero in the category of policy commitments to food security and access, compared with a global average of 47.1%. This rating was based on the lack of a national food security strategy and whether the government is responsible and can be held accountable for food security.

Food cuts across many government portfolios. Therefore, central responsibility for all aspects of national food security should rest with a Ministry of Food – which was recommended by the 2023 parliamentary inquiry.

This would bring all the threads together under one responsible department to lift our performance to an international standard.

Disasters and external threats

Shock-proofing the agriculture industry is another urgent objective of the Feeding Australia plan. Consistent and reliable supplies provided by farm production and transport networks are a critical part of national food security.

Crisis events that disrupt food supply, such as extreme weather events and global conflicts, also pose real threats to food security.

Australia needs a strategy that covers these risks and targets the entire supply chain from the farm gate to the dinner table.

Liesel Spencer has undertaken volunteer work for the Federation of Canteens in Schools (Australia) national roundtable event.

ref. Labor is promising a national food security strategy – but there’s no mention of Australians who are going hungry – https://theconversation.com/labor-is-promising-a-national-food-security-strategy-but-theres-no-mention-of-australians-who-are-going-hungry-251619

More households than ever are under-insured. Here’s what needs to be done

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antonia Settle, Lecturer, Monash University

As heavy rainfall and rising floodwaters caused by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred drench northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, it will take weeks for the full extent of the damage to be assessed. Major flood warnings have been issued for several rivers.

What we do know, however, is that more Australians are going without insurance than ever before, and this includes in the affected regions. Without full coverage, much of the damage will never be repaired.

Pervasive under-insurance in cyclone-hit areas

Although data on under-insurance is sparse, it is by now clear sharply rising costs of home and contents insurance is driving ever more households to abandon coverage over their most important asset.

The federal parliamentary inquiry into insurers’ responses to the 2022 NSW floods pointed to a growing trend of households dropping flood coverage. In particular, insurer Allianz reported 90% of its customers in high-risk areas such as northern NSW did not have flood insurance.

These figures are alarming – but unsurprising given the sharp rise in the cost of home insurance over the past five years. Higher costs on insurance premiums are driven by the rising costs of insurance payouts to households, as more frequent and more damaging weather-related events drive higher claims.

Insurance Council of Australia figures show the average cost of building insurance claims rose more than seven-fold (in inflation-adjusted terms) between 2004 and 2022. This incredible increase in insurer payouts to households has forced insurers to raise premiums.

As a result, the average premium quadrupled between 2004 and mid-2022, with much steeper rises in risky, flood-prone locations.

This data on insurance premium costs doesn’t factor in insurers’ costs for disasters in 2022 and 2023, which came to more than A$10 billion – more than insurers’ costs for all the disasters between 2015 and 2020 combined. Adding the cost of damage caused by ex-Cyclone Alfred to the bill reminds us that growing climate risk means growing costs of disasters. These are costs that households simply cannot afford.

Business-as-usual isn’t working

The parliamentary inquiry into insurers’ responses to the 2022 floods shed light on the systemic failures of the insurance system under heightened climate risk.

Households waited up to two years to have their claims paid after long disputes with insurers. Too many households that thought they were covered ended up without enough funds to rebuild. This is not a reliable risk-management system to carry Australian households through the rest of the 21st century.

Nor does the insurance system accommodate the upgrading of homes so they are more resilient to growing climate risk.

It’s essential to implement the inquiry’s recommendations that seek to force insurer rebuilds to “build back better”. This would reduce the damage more frequent climate disasters will reap on our built environment. Only by reducing the cost of that damage can insurance affordability be addressed.

Although the inquiry offered important insights, little systematic documentation of the experiences of uninsured households is available.

Low-income and disadvantaged households are over-represented in locations where climate risks are the highest and insurance premiums are the least affordable. These households often cannot afford to rebuild without the insurance coverage they cannot afford.

What about the Cyclone Reinsurance Pool?

The emergence of the insurance crisis Australian households are now experiencing was entirely predictable. But it wasn’t until 2022 that policymakers finally moved on the issue by establishing a cyclone reinsurance pool in an effort to bring premiums down.

The pool essentially provides a non-profit alternative to commercial reinsurance. This is the insurance that insurers themselves use to cover the risk of high household claims.

The government’s reinsurance pool still charges insurers a premium to access reinsurance, but it’s cheaper than commercial reinsurance. That’s because it is non-profit and, as a government agency, it has cheaper costs of capital. The cheaper reinsurance costs for insurers can then be passed on to households as cheaper premiums.

These savings, however, cannot possibly tackle the insurance crisis facing households as climate risks rise. The 10% average reduction in premiums attributed to the pool fades in comparison to premium cost increases of – on average – 300%.

But there are many other ways the pool could have an impact. It could add requirements on insurers as a condition for accessing cheaper reinsurance.

For instance, it could force changes in how insurers deal with climate mitigation and adaptation measures.

Using the pool to deliver these kinds of changes would require modifications to the legislation that governs the pool.

It would also require a government brave enough to stand up to the insurance industry, which seeks as little regulation over its activities as possible. It remains to be seen whether the losses as a result of ex-Cyclone Alfred can persuade policymakers to stand up for Australian households and drive meaningful insurance reform.

Antonia Settle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. More households than ever are under-insured. Here’s what needs to be done – https://theconversation.com/more-households-than-ever-are-under-insured-heres-what-needs-to-be-done-251708

Children of Paradise is the greatest film to come out of France, even 80 years on

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben McCann, Associate Professor of French Studies, University of Adelaide

IMDB

It is March 9 1945 in a swanky cinema in Paris. The audience is settling in for the premiere of Children of Paradise (Les Enfants du paradis) – the latest work by Marcel Carné, best known for his moody 1930s “poetic realist” films. The script is by celebrated poet Jacques Prévert. The curtains part. The film begins.

The audience is quickly plunged into the clutter and chaos of 1840s Paris, with the backdrop of the bustling world of theatre.

Four very different men – the dandified thief Lacenaire, the mime Baptiste, the aspiring actor Frédérick Lemaître, and the wealthy aristocrat de Montray – are in love with the same woman. She is Garance, played unforgettably by Arletty.

What follows will break your heart.

I would argue Children of Paradise is France’s greatest film – its performances, production design and prestige undiminished. It is a heady brew of murder, betrayal, warmth and kindness. It is also a deeply moving love letter to Paris, and to the theatre.

Life as theatre

The “paradise” of the film’s title refers to the highest and cheapest seats in the theatre. Sometimes also called “the gods”, these seats were usually occupied by the poor.

Carné and Prévert’s wonderful flourish is to make Children of Paradise about life in and as theatre.

Frédérick is a fine stage actor, full of bluster and big gestures. But he secretly admires Baptiste, the mime who “speaks with his legs and replies with his hands”. The film looks back at the lost aesthetics of mime and dance with great nostalgia.

We move in and out of playhouses, via backstage, aisles and dressing rooms. There are in-jokes and allusions: de Montray dislikes the theatre (“I don’t like this Monsieur Shakespeare, his debased violence and his lack of decorum”) but is prepared to casually kill in the name of honour.

Performers are fined for making noise in the wings and rival theatre companies fight on and off the stage. Think Moulin Rouge meets Shakespeare in Love, with a dose of French existentialism.

The making of a masterpiece

Even more astonishing is how the film was made.

When the Germans occupied France in 1940, they introduced strict directives about what could and couldn’t be shown. Around 220 films were made in France during the almost five-year occupation, many with pre-approved themes such as submission to authority, patriarchy and the importance of rural life. Making a film about raucous Parisian theatre folk would be tricky.

Many directors fled to Hollywood, while Jewish actors and technicians were outlawed under antisemitic laws. But Carné and Prévert stayed, and began to concoct their masterpiece: a thinly veiled allegory against the political situation at the time. Garance, the woman who refuses to yield to her quartet of suitors, stands for a proud, autonomous prewar France.

Prévert’s script often compares Garance to a bird, the ultimate symbol of freedom. Another character, Jéricho, is a spiteful informer who readily denounces his comrades (there was plenty of that behaviour in the witch-hunt culture of occupied France).

There were several other hurdles. The film originally started as a Franco-Italian co-production, but that idea was abandoned when the Allied forces invaded Sicily in 1943. It took two years of interrupted filming in Nice before Children of Paradise was finally complete.

Composer Joseph Kosma and production designer Alexandre Trauner, both Hungarian Jews, worked on the film clandestinely. And in 1944, one of the main actors, Robert Le Vigan, was forced to flee to Germany due to his pro-Nazi radio broadcasts. His scenes were entirely reshot, this time starring Pierre Renoir (brother of Jean Renoir).

Building the colossal sets required 35 tonnes of scaffolding, 350 tonnes of plaster and 500 square metres of glass. Fabric for the costumes, food for the crew, electricity supplies and film stock were all classified as strategic commodities during wartime. The black market came in handy.

After pro-Nazi actor Robert Le Vigan fled to Germany, his scenes were re-shot starring Jean Renoir’s brother, Pierre Renoir.
IMDB

A nationalist project

When Carné first heard of the Allied landings in Normandy in the spring of 1944, he deliberately slowed down filming. He realised that rather than being the last film of the occupation, Children of Paradise could be the first film of post-Liberation France – a patriotic and spectacular film with a distinctively French flavour.

Children of Paradise has been called “the French Gone With The Wind”. The huge sets, long runtime and use of star actors was a conscious attempt to beat Hollywood at its own game.

It’s thematically rich, too. There is a bold exploration of sexuality (Garance is a former prostitute, Baptiste is adulterous and Lacenaire is queer-coded) and a radical fusion of high and low art that feels very postmodern.

The film ends with Baptiste trying to catch up with a departing Garance, but the Paris crowds swallow him up. He’s now a part of the carnivalesque capital that was, in 1945, proudly resisting the enemy and thrumming with excitement at the prospect of liberation.

Baptiste is swallowed up by the crowd as the film closes.
IMDB

A lasting legacy

In a radical move, Carné split the film into two parts, each running for 90 minutes. There is a deliberate cliffhanger at the end of part one, followed by an intermission.

Carné, ever the canny businessman, realised he could ask punters to pay double the price for tickets. After all, they were seeing two films! The film became a huge commercial success, playing non-stop for 54 weeks and grossing an estimated 41 million francs – a huge sum at the time.

Audiences and critics were enthralled back then, and remain so now. Legend has it there’s always at least one cinema showing the film somewhere in Paris.

Today, we can find fragments of the film’s DNA in any new French literary adaptation or big-budget melodrama. Films ranging from Queen Margot (1994) to The Three Musketeers (2023) share thematic and visual links.

French filmmaker François Truffaut once admitted “I have made 23 films. I would swap them all for the chance to have made Children of Paradise.” And for critic Pauline Kael, it was a “poem on the nature and varieties of love – sacred and profane, selfless and possessive”.

Eighty years on, it’s time to fall in love again.

Ben McCann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Children of Paradise is the greatest film to come out of France, even 80 years on – https://theconversation.com/children-of-paradise-is-the-greatest-film-to-come-out-of-france-even-80-years-on-250509

NZ’s glaciers have already lost nearly a third of their ice – as more vanishes, landscapes and lives change

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shaun Eaves, Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Brewster Glacier is thinning and retreating because of extremely low retention of winter snow and high summer melt rates. Lauren Vargo/Victoria University of Wellington, CC BY

New Zealand ranks third globally in the proportion of ice lost from glaciers. Almost 30% of ice volume has melted during the past 24 years and what remains is disappearing at an accelerating pace, according to a recent global assessment.

Almost 300 glaciers have now vanished completely from New Zealand’s mountains.

An aerial view of a mountain glacier and its outflow stream.
Diminishing ice has impacts on the landscapes in New Zealand’s southern alps.
Andrew Lorrey/NIWA, CC BY-SA

As warming temperatures melt glaciers, the ice loss has repercussions for climate and water cycles. This in turn has significant impacts on landscapes, rivers, ecosystems and, ultimately, people and economies.

New Zealand is tracking glacial ice loss closely, thanks to a long-running monitoring programme going back to 1977.

Each year, a team of scientists carries out aerial surveys of the end-of-summer snowline to determine how much of the previous winter snowpack has survived the summer melt season.

Winter snow supplies new mass to glaciers and must balance summer melt if glaciers are to maintain their size. Recent surveys have shown that summer melt far exceeds winter inputs.

During extremely warm years, the winter snow pack is almost entirely removed from some glaciers and the underlying ice has thinned by several metres.

Like a bank account where expenses continually exceed income, the glaciers are out of balance. If left unchecked, eventually the bank account runs dry.

What we lose when glaciers melt

New Zealand is home to just under 3,000 glaciers, covering about 794 square kilometres – equivalent to about 75% of Auckland’s urban area.

Many of these ice bodies are small. Most of the ice is contained in just a few larger glaciers situated close to Aoraki Mt Cook.

Satellite image of mountains with glaciers in the Southern Alps, with labels showing the main glaciers
Most of glacial ice in New Zealand exists around the high peaks near Aoraki Mt Cook.
Shaun Eaves; based on Copernicus Sentinel data 2025, CC BY-SA

We don’t have accurate measurements of glacier thickness but estimate they hold as much water as Lake Te Anau. If all of the ice in New Zealand melted – a possibility under some climate scenarios for the coming centuries – the impact on global sea levels would be barely perceptible, but we would be affected in many other ways.

Physically, snow and ice have a cooling effect on their surrounding environment. The highly reflective surface of snow and ice means a high proportion of solar radiation (up to 90% on fresh snow) is reflected back to space.

A reduction in seasonal snow cover and glacial ice due to warming increases the absorption of solar radiation. This further warms the surface and adjacent air and sets off a feedback loop that accelerates further ice loss.

The same effect applies to the loss of sea ice in both the Arctic and Antarctica and is a key reason why alpine and polar regions warm faster than other parts of the globe.

Loss of glacial ice also destabilises the surrounding landscape, with potentially hazardous impacts. Glacial retreat is causing weakening and collapse of steep valley sides that were once supported by ice. The lowering and flattening of ice surfaces means rain and meltwater form ponds that can drain without notice.

The retreat of Fox Glacier destabilises adjacent hillslopes. Source: Brian Anderson.

Biologically, seasonal snow plays an important role in maintaining ecological diversity. Snow insulates and protects alpine insects during winter and regulates flowering times and seed production of alpine flora.

Glacial meltwater cools stream water, supporting cold-water fish populations. Furthermore, the fine silt produced by the slow grinding of rock under the weight of flowing glacial ice is redistributed by wind and rivers and can maintain productive arable land and help regulate atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

Annotated satellite image of ponds on glacial ice covered in debris.
The lowering of the ice surface on the summit of Mount Ruapehu is causing ponding of rain and meltwater against the emerging rocky topography.
Shaun Eaves, CC BY-SA

Snow and ice are also culturally and economically important in New Zealand. Winter snow draws skiers and alpinists to the mountains, while the glaciers of the central Southern Alps are internationally recognised icons that provide the economic backbone to entire regional communities.

The science of glacier loss is clear: in a warming world, less snow will be retained and more ice will melt. This is why the United Nations has designated 2025 the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation and March 21 as the World Day for Glaciers.

The only way to sustainably arrest the current global retreat of glacial ice is to tackle the root cause: global heating. Achieving this requires international coordination to move energy generation away from fossil fuels quickly.

Failing this, we may soon only remember our glaciers from stories, paintings and photographs.

The Conversation

Shaun Eaves receives funding from the Antarctic Science Platform and previously from the Marsden Fund.

Andrew Lorrey receives funding from NIWA’s Strategic Science Investment Fund for the project CAOA2501 Alpine Climate.

Brian Anderson receives funding from the Marsden Fund and NIWA.

Heather Purdie receives funding from NIWA and the Antarctic Science Platform, and previously from the Marsden Fund. She previously worked as a glacier guide for Fox Glacier Guiding.

Lauren Vargo receives funding from the Marsden Fund.

ref. NZ’s glaciers have already lost nearly a third of their ice – as more vanishes, landscapes and lives change – https://theconversation.com/nzs-glaciers-have-already-lost-nearly-a-third-of-their-ice-as-more-vanishes-landscapes-and-lives-change-250617

‘What voice do we have?’ Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people faced unique challenges during the COVID pandemic

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Carlson, Senior Research Officer, Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Team, The Kids Research Institute Australia

It’s now been five years since the World Health Organization declared COVID a pandemic.

In Australia, as in many other countries around this time, federal and state governments implemented a range of public health measures to slow the spread of disease. These included travel bans, quarantine and limits on social gatherings.

Western Australia was largely untouched by COVID during the early years of the pandemic due to strict border closures and snap lockdowns. Many WA residents said they were thankful for such measures as life seemed almost normal.

However, our recent research shows this was not the case for many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living in WA. The COVID pandemic hampered their ability to connect with their community and practise traditional culture.

A close collaboration

Between 2020 and 2024, we consulted with members of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community in Noongar Whadjuk Boodja (Perth metropolitan region, WA).

We held meetings with various committees and organisations to design the project, five yarning workshops with 38 participants, and a forum to interpret the data and support the publication of our findings.

We wanted to understand the impact of the COVID pandemic on this community, and their perceptions of COVID vaccination.

We collaborated closely because historically, Indigenous peoples across the globe have been disproportionately impacted by pandemics. What’s more, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voices were omitted from previous pandemic responses, such as during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

People sitting around a table talking animatedly.
Our research involved close collaboration with members of the local Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community.
The Kids Research Institute Australia

Negative effects on community and culture

Our results indicate the policies and programs implemented to slow the spread of disease (such as travel bans and capacity limits at funerals) ultimately had a negative impact among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

These interventions impaired people’s ability to connect with community and practise traditional culture. As described by a yarning participant in March 2023:

Isolating, that caused a lot of damage towards communication between community. That caused a lot of mental health issues. And not just through domestic violence and all that stuff. It’s more like not understanding, confusion, and then all those other stuff came into it. Now we’re all trying to fix ourselves and the community, but it’s like hitting brick walls.

Most participants were very wary of government and medical institutions (including Aboriginal-led services that shared government messages). Participants told us this made it hard to trust any COVID policies and programs:

The government just expects Aboriginal people […] to believe them and trust them when there are so many issues to this day with the government and how Aboriginal people are treated.

Any government efforts to build trust were undermined once the WA government introduced COVID vaccine mandates for most workers in WA. This policy had unique impacts on peoples living in the shadow of colonisation. It deeply affected those who identified a lack of agency in their lives, as described to us in a yarn in October 2023:

I was really frustrated that it became compulsory to be vaccinated in order to keep your job […] I feel like the only thing we really do choose is where we work and what work we choose to go into, and then for the government to take control of that, what voice do we have?




Read more:
Friday essay: voices from the bush – how lockdown affects remote Indigenous communities differently


Attitudes towards COVID vaccines

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people were among the first to be offered COVID vaccines. Despite this, after 12 months of the vaccination program, there was a 30% gap in uptake between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and non-Indigenous people in WA. It’s important to understand why.

Some participants we spoke to had taken the vaccines voluntarily and enthusiastically. They trusted that the vaccine would protect them and their loved ones, and wanted to be role models in their communities.

However, many held deep concerns about the safety of the vaccine, and were only vaccinated due to the mandates.

This vaccine hesitancy among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people is not uniform across all vaccines. Our preliminary research with parents and carers from the same community shows high acceptance of childhood vaccines and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) immunisation for infants. So this hesitancy appears to be specific to certain vaccines, notably COVID.

As described to us in a yarn about RSV infant immunisation, childhood vaccines and diseases such as RSV are well known, whereas everything about COVID was new.

What now?

Over the course of the pandemic, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have been more likely to get very sick with and die from COVID. Data released in 2023 showed the mortality rate from COVID was 1.6 times higher in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people than non-Indigenous Australians.

Such disparities, which we’ve seen in previous pandemics too, cannot continue into the next pandemic.

Genuine collaboration is essential. We must ensure Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voices lead pandemic preparedness and response efforts for their communities.

We can learn from the incredible efforts made by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, and Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations during COVID.

Some of the people we yarned with in our research were involved in the response, including setting up vaccine clinics where Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people had the opportunity to also yarn, create art (weaving and painting), learn, and enjoy a meal while at the clinic for the vaccine.

A woman with her daughter doing gardening.
Indigenous people are disproportionately affected by pandemics.
Vicki Smith/Getty Images

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities need disease prevention policies that support community and culture. Stronger efforts are required now to start building up the trust between the government, non-Indigenous health authorities, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

These efforts include collaborating with and equipping community leaders and Aboriginal health workers with evidence-based information about vaccination and disease prevention to share among their communities.

Global pandemics are becoming more frequent. This network must be ready when (not if) the next pandemic happens.

At our data interpretation workshop, we were encouraged by the local Elder who welcomed us to their Country to have “courageous conversations” about this topic. We similarly encourage all those working in this space to start now.

The Conversation

Samantha Carlson is a recipient of the WA Early-Career Child Health Researcher Fellowship Program, funded by the BrightSpark Foundation and Western Australia Future Health Research and Innovation Fund (FHRI). Dr Carlson receives or has received funds for her research from the FHRI, New South Wales Ministry of Health, Stan Perron Charitable Foundation Health Research Funding, Western Australia Country Health Services and Western Australian Department of Health.

Christopher Blyth receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council. He is on the board of the Australasian Society for Infectious Diseases. He has previously been a member of the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation.

Katie Attwell is a past recipient of a Discovery Early Career Researcher Award funded by the Australian Research Council of the Australian Government. She led the “Coronavax” project, funded by the Government of Western Australia. She leads “MandEval: Effectiveness and Consequences of Australia’s COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates” funded by the Medical Research Future Fund of the Australian Government. All funds were paid to her institution. Funders are not involved in the conceptualisation, design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of manuscripts.

Carla Puca, Justin Kickett, and Valerie Swift do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘What voice do we have?’ Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people faced unique challenges during the COVID pandemic – https://theconversation.com/what-voice-do-we-have-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-people-faced-unique-challenges-during-the-covid-pandemic-249155

Gavin Ellis: Amazon founder Bezos dims lights on democracy

COMMENTARY: By Gavin Ellis

Little more than a month into the new US presidency, The Washington Post’s owner dimmed the light on a motto that became a beacon for freedom during the first Trump administration.

“Democracy dies in darkness” has appeared below Washington Post for the past eight years.

Last month it was powdered in irony after the newspaper’s owner, Jeff Bezos, decreed in an email to staff that the newspaper’s editorial section would shift its editorial focus and that only opinions that support and defend “personal liberties” and “free markets” would be welcome.

Amazon founder Bezos had already sullied the Post’s reputation by refusing to allow it to endorse a candidate during the presidential election — an action capable of no other interpretation than support for Donald Trump.

Since then, there has been a US$1 million Amazon contribution to Trump’s inauguration and, according to the Wall Street Journal, a US$40 million deal with First Lady Melania Trump for an authorised documentary to be run on Amazon’s streaming service.

Now Bezos has openly bowed before the new emperor and dimmed The Washington Post’s lights.

Martin Baron, editor of the Post when the democracy motto — the first in the newspaper’s 140-year history — was adopted, last month described Bezos’s directive as a “betrayal of the very idea of free expression”.

Standing up to Trump
Two years after the slogan appeared on the Post masthead, a former editor of The New York Times, Jill Abramson, published a book titled Merchants of Truth. In it she praised Bezos (who had bought the Washington newspaper six years earlier) for his support of Baron in standing up to Donald Trump’s assaults on the media and his serial falsehoods.

However, she also made a prediction.

“Though it hadn’t yet happened, it seemed all but inevitable that the Post’s coverage would one day bring Bezos’s commitment to freedom of the press into conflict with Amazon’s commercial interests, given the company’s size and power as it competed with Apple to become America’s first trillion-dollar conglomerate.”

That day has come.

It is patently obvious that Jeff Bezos puts the interests of his US$2 trillion Amazon empire ahead of a newspaper that last year lost US$100 million. In the process he has trashed the Post and turned readers against it.

In the 24 hours after last month’s email was revealed, it lost 75,000 online subscribers. It had already shed close to 300,000 when the refusal to endorse a presidential candidate was revealed (I was one of them).

It is unsurprising that he puts an enormously profitable enterprise ahead of one that is costing him money. However, rather than risking the future of a fine newspaper, he could have sought a buyer for it.

He could even afford to sell it for one dollar to staff or to an individual who has a stronger commitment to the principles of free speech than he can now muster. He has done neither.

Chilling effect
Instead, he is prepared to modify content to make The Washington Post more acceptable to the White House in order to protect — perhaps even enhance — his other interests. That will have a chilling effect on the journalists he employs.

In an industry that has lost more than 8000 newsroom roles over the past three years, fear for your job can be a powerful inducement to conform.

An analysis of Bezos’ current strategy by the Wall Street Journal (which paid more attention to commercial interests than journalistic principles) suggested that Bezos had already paid a very high price for being perceived by Trump as an enemy during his first term.

“In 2019, the cost of crossing Trump and funding the Resistance became staggeringly clear to Bezos. Amazon lost out to rival Microsoft on a mammoth $10 billion cloud-computing contract issued by the Pentagon.

“It was a surprising decision since Amazon Web Services was the industry leader in cloud computing and was judged by many to have presented a stronger bid. This time around, the risks to Bezos appear far greater. Trump 2.0 is faster, more ruthless and more skilled at pulling the levers of government power.

“Amazon is vulnerable on many fronts — from antitrust to contracts.”

An even higher price could be paid, however, by the people of the United States (and beyond) as Trump uses those levers to diminish the ability of news media to hold him to account.

Press Corps manipulation
His manipulation of the make-up of the White House Press Corps has been another example. The White House Correspondents Association has been stripped of its role in deciding which journalists have access to the president. Not only has this resulted in the ascendancy of Trump acolytes like Brian Glenn of Real America Voice but America’s pre-eminent wire service, the Associated Press, has been ejected from the Press Pool.

Ostensibly, the ban was due to the AP refusing to change the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America in its copy. It is far more likely, however, that the wire service’s balanced coverage and quest for accuracy stands in the way of Trumpian disinformation.

And, of course, his war on words even goes beyond the media to stripping government websites of words, phrases and ideas that challenge or complicate the administration’s views.

I agree with a New York Times editorial that characterised these actions as Orwellian — protecting free speech requires controlling free speech. It said the approach was “deliberate and dangerous.” It labelled Trump’s moves to control not only the flow of information but the way it was presented as “an expansive crackdown on free expression and disfavoured speakers that should be decried not just as hypocritical (Trump and his supporters advocate a form of free speech absolutism) but also as un-American and unconstitutional”.

These are strong words. Sadly, they have yet to result in a mass movement to restore sanity.

And that leaves me at a loss to understand what in Hell’s name has happened to principled people in the United States. If I (and many like me) are affronted by what is happening far from here, why are we not hearing a mass of voices demanding a stop to actions that threaten not only the United States’ international reputation but the very fabric of its society?

Orwell on truth
In 1941, George Orwell made a radio broadcast on truthfulness that may have awful portents for Americans. In it he said:

“Totalitarianism has abolished freedom of thought to an extent unheard of in any previous age. And it is important to realise that its control of thought is not only negative but also positive. It not only forbids you to express — even to think — certain thoughts but it dictates what you shall think, it creates an ideology for you, it tries to govern your emotional life as well as setting up a code of conduct. And as far as possible it isolates you from the outside world, it shuts you up in an artificial universe in which you have no standards of comparison.”

That, I suspect, would be music to Donald Trump’s ears. And Jeff Bezos’s dictating the limits of what is acceptable on The Washington Post’s op/ed pages is one tiny step it that direction.

Dr Gavin Ellis holds a PhD in political studies. He is a media consultant and researcher. A former editor-in-chief of The New Zealand Herald, he has a background in journalism and communications — covering both editorial and management roles — that spans more than half a century. This article was published first on his Knightly Views website on 4 March 2025 and is republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Caitlin Johnstone: Zionism is strangling free speech in Australia

Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific.

A Palestinian-Australian man has been criminally charged for voicing criticisms of Zionism during a protest against Israel’s genocide in Gaza. He could spend months in prison.

The Age reports that restaurant owner Hash Tayeh has been charged with four counts of “using insulting words in public” for repeatedly uttering the phrase “all Zionists are terrorists” at a pro-Palestine rally in Melbourne last year.

According to the The Age’s Chris Vedelago, the punishment for this crime of political speech is “up to two months in prison for a first offence and six months for three or more offences”.

“It is believed to be the first time that potential political speech has been deemed a criminal offence that breached the ‘insulting’ law,” Vedelago reports, adding: “The charges are normally levied for using abusive or obscene language against police officers.”

You really couldn’t ask for a better illustration of the authoritarian dystopia that Australia has become than a news report about a man getting criminally charged for normal political speech with a law that is normally used to jail people who speak impolitely to the police.

These charges for speech crimes against Zionism follow a controversial assertion made last year by Australia’s Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus:

“The label Zionist is used, not in any way, accurately. When critics use that word, they actually mean Jew. They’re not really saying Zionist, they’re saying Jew because they know that they cannot say Jew, so they say Zionist or words [such as] Zeo or Zio.”

Dreyfus might want to have a chat with outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who just made headlines by proudly proclaiming “I am a Zionist” at his final press conference on Thursday.

Trudeau is not Jewish, nor is genocidal war criminal Joe Biden, who is on record saying on numerous occasions some variation of “I’m a Zionist. You don’t have to be a Jew to be a Zionist”.

Not all Jews are Zionists, and most Zionists are not Jewish. Zionism is a political ideology which upholds the Western decision to drop an abusive apartheid ethnostate on top of a pre-existing civilisation in historic Palestine and defend it by any amount of violence and tyranny necessary, and the majority of the people you see defending this status quo are Westerners with no connection to the Jewish faith.

The cult of Christian Zionism alone outnumbers the world’s Jewish population by about two to one.

It is therefore wildly incorrect to conflate Zionism with Judaism, and it is also highly immoral. People who do this are assigning all Jews the blame for Israel’s abuses, when the blame actually lies with the state of Israel and its Western backers. As much as Israel apologists shriek and moan about “antisemitism” when they really mean supporting Palestinians, the real antisemitism problem in our society is the way our ruling institutions keep lumping all Jews in with the abuses of a genocidal apartheid state and the Western empire which supports it.

That’s all the imaginary “antisemitism” crisis is, in reality: people conflating anti-Zionism with antisemitism. If you declare that anti-Zionism is antisemitism and then Zionism starts butchering children by the tens of thousands in a genocidal onslaught, you are naturally going to see a rapid rise in “antisemitism” as you have defined it.

It’s a fallacious narrative used to justify the strangulation of political speech we are seeing today.

We’re seeing that strangulation surge ahead in Australia with the McCarthyite witch hunt against pro-Palestinian voices, and in a decision by Australian universities to espouse a definition of “antisemitism” which is so speech-suppressing that it has been denounced by Amnesty International.

We are also seeing Zionism strangling free speech throughout the Western world. German police are routinely assaulting pro-Palestine demonstrators. Pro-Palestinian journalists are being persecuted with increasing aggression in the UK and throughout Europe.

In the US the Trump administration is working to stomp out pro-Palestine protests on university campuses while using AI to compile lists of people suspected of expressing support for Hamas on social media.

Almost every day we’re seeing some new escalation in the Western empire’s efforts to stomp out speech that is critical of Israel. Westerners need to understand that we have moved far beyond the point where Israel is a threat only to Middle Eastern lives: it’s a threat to us all, because the Western governments who support it are stomping out our basic freedoms with increasing aggression in order to silence all criticisms of its abuses.

Even if you didn’t have enough compassion to oppose Israel and its Western backers because of their genocidal atrocities in the Middle East, at this point you need to start opposing them out of sheer self-preservation.

This isn’t just about foreigners overseas anymore: it’s about you. Your rights. Your freedom to voice your political opinions.

Zionism is a threat to civil rights everywhere. Zionism threatens us all.

Caitlin Johnstone is an Australian independent journalist and poet. Her articles include The UN Torture Report On Assange Is An Indictment Of Our Entire Society. She publishes a website and Caitlin’s Newsletter. This article is republished with permission.

This article was first published on Café Pacific.

Another decisive Labor win in WA, but much remains at stake

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Narelle Miragliotta, Associate Professor in Politics, Murdoch University

The Roger Cook Labor government has been returned comfortably to government in Western Australia, securing a commanding, even if reduced, majority in the Legislative Assembly.

On election night, ABC election analyst Antony Green projected Labor had secured at least 40 of the 59 lower house seats. Even Labor’s deputy premier and treasurer, Rita Saffioti, expressed her surprise at the size of the party’s victory.

The Liberals also made ground, despite conceding Labor’s “emphatic” victory. They achieved a more than +7% swing in the state-wide share of the primary vote and, by late on Saturday night, had gained double-digit swings on a two-party basis in 33 electorates. At at least two seats had registered swings of more than 20%.

The Liberals retained the two lower house seats they held coming into this election – Vasse and Cottesloe – and regained the seats of Carine, Churchlands and Nedlands. The victory in Nedlands was achieved with an almost +12% swing. The Liberals are also ahead in the count in the seats of Albany, Kalgoorlie, Murray-Wellington. The Liberals will enter the 42nd parliament as the official opposition party.

The Nationals also have reason to celebrate. The party retained its three lower seats, and have gained a fourth seat, winning Geraldton, which was previously held by Labor and the Liberals at different periods. The party is also ahead in the count in the seat of Warren-Blackwood, a seat Labor won from the Nationals in 2021. Interestingly, the Poll Bludger’s, William Bowe has the Nationals ahead in Albany.

The Greens’ share of the state-wide primary vote rebounded to double digits, registering a swing of +3.5%. The Greens’ representation in the Legislative Council has also quadrupled from one councillor to four. And at least one of the teal independents, Kate Hulett, might just wrestle the inner metropolitan seat of Fremantle from Labor.

Losing amid the winning

While the parties will be able to claim their share of success, all lost ground in some way.

The vote correction Labor was expecting was emphatically delivered. The state-wide swing against Labor was around 18%, its primary vote likely to land somewhere in the low 40% range. The party will also lose its majority in the Legislative Council, with the party securing 15 seats (compared to 22 in 2021) in the 37 seat chamber. Even though Labor strategists were anticipating decline in its vote share given the fantastical swings the party enjoyed in 2021, they will be smarting from the outcome.

The swing against Labor did not break decisively in the Liberals’ direction. The Liberals barely regained two of their traditional blue-ribbon seats. The party narrowly won the seat of Churchlands (+1.8% swing), the most marginal Labor-held seat coming into this election. Cottesloe, a seat the Liberals have occupied uninterrupted since its creation in 1950, managed a swing of just under +5%. This is despite the Liberals’ candidate, Sandra Brewer, campaigning full time for 12 months.

In the Legislative Council, the party’s primary vote did strengthen but was a subdued 27.79%, which has delivered the Liberals three additional council members on their 2021 numbers.

The Liberals’ traditional inner metropolitan electorates are not in a hurry to return to the party. This may reflect the difficulties for the Liberals in straddling the policy and, perhaps, cultural divides between their traditional inner metropolitan seats, and outer metropolitan and rural and regional seats.

The Nationals increased their lower house contingent, but their statewide primary vote grew by just over 1%, despite fielding four more candidates than they did in 2021. Specifically, the Nationals ran candidates in the (traditionally safe Liberal) inner metropolitan seats of Bateman, Darling Range, Kalamunda and South Perth, ostensibly in response to the Liberals’ pre-election refusal to not run candidates against the Nationals.

However, the Nationals’ primary vote in these inner metropolitan seats averaged around 6.5%, confirming the party’s appeal in metropolitan seats is thin. The Nationals representation in the Legislative Council declined from three to two councillors.

And while the Greens managed to improve their primary vote, it is hard to know whether it is a positive vote for the Greens or a vote against the major parties. The Greens (15.8%) were also out polled by the Teal independent (28.8%) in the inner metropolitan electorate of Fremantle. The Greens might have been expected to have finished in second place behind Labor, not third, in this seat.

What next?

Labor will now have to get on with the business of governing, and hope to be able to do enough in the intervening four years to remain competitive for a fourth term, especially among their own supporters. As expert Ben Raue has pointed out, some of the largest swings against Labor were “in their safer seats”.

The Liberals will have to make a decision about who will lead the parliamentary party. It is unclear whether Libby Mettam will remain the leader. Well before the results were in on election night, her colleague, Steve Thomas, was not prepared to offer his full-throated endorsement.

However, Mettam’s putative successor, Basil Zemplias, did not emerge from this election unscathed, barely scraping a victory in Churchlands despite his high-profile status. Realistically, however, Mettam is the only person with the experience to lead the party in the lower house.

The other relationship to watch is between the Nationals and the Liberals. The two parties are not on great terms, and with the federal seat of Bullwinkel to be fiercely contested, one might expect things between them to get worse before they get better.

Certainly, Nationals leader Shane Love was quick to point out on election night that the Liberals had not been responsive to cooperation. Former Liberal Premier Colin Barnett has suggested the two parties should again entertain a merger. However, given the history between them, it is unlikely.

The election is over, but the reverberation for all parties will be felt for months and years to come.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Another decisive Labor win in WA, but much remains at stake – https://theconversation.com/another-decisive-labor-win-in-wa-but-much-remains-at-stake-249693

Ex-Cyclone Alfred has left flooding in its wake. Here’s how floods affect our health

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jodie Bailie, Senior Research Fellow, The University Centre for Rural Health and The Centre for Disability Research and Policy, University of Sydney

Ex-cyclone Alfred is bringing significant rainfall to southeast Queensland and the Northern Rivers of New South Wales. Flooding has hit Lismore, Ballina, Grafton, Brisbane and Hervey Bay, which received 150 mm of rainfall in two hours this morning.

Tragically, a 61-year-old man died after being swept away in floodwaters near Dorrigo in northern New South Wales.

More heavy rain and flash flooding is expected in the coming days as the weather system moves inland and weakens.

Climate change is making these weather events more intense and frequent. Earlier this year, far north Queensland experienced major flooding. As residents of the Northern Rivers, this latest disaster is especially tough because only three years ago we faced the catastrophic 2022 floods.

We’ve studied the impact of floods on human health and wellbeing, and found floods are linked to a range of physical and mental health effects in both the short- and long-term.

So what might you experience if you live in an area affected by these floods?

We reviewed the evidence

We recently reviewed research on the physical and mental health impacts of floods across mainland Australia. We included 69 studies in our review, published over 70 years. The majority were from the past ten years, examining the effects of floods in Queensland and NSW.

These studies suggest people can expect a range of health impacts. Immediate physical health effects of floods include drowning, falls and injuries.

Chronic diseases such as diabetes or renal disease can also worsen due to factors such as reduced access to transport, health-care services, medications and hospitals.

Exposure to contaminated floodwaters can lead to skin infections, while respiratory problems can occur due to mould and damp housing in the aftermath of floods.

Floods also create ideal conditions for mosquito borne infections such as Ross River virus and Murray Valley encephalitis, while also spreading infectious diseases including leptospirosis, a bacterial infection from contaminated soil.




Read more:
Don’t go wading in flood water if you can help it. It’s a health risk for humans – and dogs too


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There are mental health consequences too

Our review showed floods also affect mental health. The more you’re exposed to floodwaters in your home or business, the worse the mental health impacts are likely to be.

The After the Flood study examined mental health and wellbeing outcomes six months after the 2017 flood in the Northern Rivers. It found people who had floodwater in their home, yard or business, or who were displaced from their home for a more than six months, were much more likely to have probable post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety or depression, compared to those who didn’t experience flooding or weren’t displaced.

Repeated natural disasters could compound these mental health consequences. Southeast Queensland and the Northern Rivers in NSW have experienced multiple disasters over recent years. The Northern Rivers faced major flooding in 2017, bushfires in 2020, further major floods in 2022, and now Cyclone Alfred in 2025. These repeated disasters have taken a toll on our community, creating a seemingly never-ending cycle of recovery, rebuilding and preparation for the next disaster.

Our understanding of the unique challenges faced by communities which experience multiple disasters is still growing. However, a recent Australian study showed exposure to repeated disasters has a compounding effect on people’s mental health, leading to worse mental health outcomes compared to people who experience a single disaster.




Read more:
Cyclone Alfred is already retraumatising people who’ve lived through other disasters. I’m one of them


Mums and babies

The health effects of floods extend far beyond the initial emergency and beyond the infections and mental health consequences you might expect.

The Queensland Flood Study tracked pregnant women exposed to the 2011 Brisbane floods. Researchers assessed mothers’ stress related to the flood and tracked them and their children at six weeks old, six months, 16 months, 2.5 years, four and six years. It found some links between prenatal stress and developmental outcomes in children.

Mother breastfeeds baby
Some evidence suggests maternal stress from floods can affect children’s development.
Nastyaofly/Shutterstock

While the health effects after flooding are diverse, the research to date is not comprehensive. We need to learn more about how floods contribute to or exacerbate existing chronic illnesses, disability and long-term mental health issues.

The impacts are inequitable

Flooding exposes and worsens existing inequalities. Socially vulnerable groups are more likely to be exposed to flooding in their homes and have less access to resources to respond and recover from these events, putting some groups at higher risk of negative health impacts afterwards.

Some research has looked at the disproportionate impacts on people with disabilities and their carers, First Nations communities and people from disadvantaged backgrounds.

After the 2017 Northern Rivers floods, for example, people with disability and their carers were more likely than others to:

  • experience disrupted access to food, support networks and essentials such as health care and social services
  • continue to be distressed about the flood six months after it happened
  • be at relatively high risk of post-traumatic stress disorder six months after the flood.

However, targeted flood research exploring the experiences of these vulnerable groups in Australia is limited.

Moving forward, it’s vital we examine the varied impacts of flood events for more vulnerable groups, so we can better support them in the wake of devastating events such as Cyclone Alfred.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.




Read more:
Returning home after a flood? Prioritise your health and take it one step at a time


The Conversation

Jodie Bailie is a Chief Investigator on the National Health and Medical Research Council-funded Centre of Research Excellence in Achieving Health Equity for All People with Disabilities (CRE-AHEAD, Grant #2035278).

Jo Longman has received funding from the NSW State Government Disaster Risk Reduction Fund and the Healthy Environments and Lives Innovation Fund. She is affiliated as a volunteer with Plan C’s research team.

Rebecca McNaught has received funding from the Healthy Environments and Lives Innovation Fund. She is a Board member of Plan C.

Ross Bailie is an investigator on several research projects that are supported by funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and Australian Research Council.

ref. Ex-Cyclone Alfred has left flooding in its wake. Here’s how floods affect our health – https://theconversation.com/ex-cyclone-alfred-has-left-flooding-in-its-wake-heres-how-floods-affect-our-health-251488

Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

With 61% of enrolled voters counted in Saturday’s Western Australian election, the ABC is calling 40 of the 59 lower house seats for Labor, five for the Liberals and four for the Nationals, with ten remaining undecided.

Vote shares are 41.8% Labor (down 18.1% since Labor’s massive 2021 win), 28.6% Liberals (up 7.3%), 5.1% Nationals (up 1.1%), 10.5% Greens (up 3.6%), 3.7% One Nation (up 2.4%), 3.1% Australian Christians (up 1.6%), 2.3% Legalise Cannabis (up 1.9%) and 3.6% independents (up 2.9%).

While Labor had a big fall in its primary vote since winning 59.9% in 2021, this fall didn’t go directly to the Liberals and Nationals, with these parties’ combined votes up 8.4%.

The ABC’s two-party estimate shows a Labor win by 58.3–41.7, an 11.3% swing to the Liberals and Nationals from the 69.7–30.3 Labor margin at the 2021 election, which was a record victory in Australia for either major party at any state or federal election.

The Poll Bludger’s results have Labor leads in 45 of the 59 seats, the Liberals in seven, the Nationals in six and one independent lead. If these are the final numbers, Labor would lose eight seats from 2021, with the Liberals gaining five, the Nationals two and independents one.

The Poll Bludger’s two-party estimate is a little worse for Labor than the ABC’s, with a Labor lead by 57.4–42.6, a 12.2% swing to the Liberals and Nationals. If the Poll Bludger’s two-party estimate is right, the final Newspoll and DemosAU polls will be correct, while if the ABC’s is right, they will have understated Labor.

I said in my preview article that polls suggested that Labor would be well down on 2021, but that they would have a bigger win than in 2017 (41 of the 59 seats on a two-party vote of 55.5–44.5). The results show this will be the case. This will be the third landslide in a row for Labor in WA.

Most seats have counted their pre-poll votes and postal votes that arrived before election day. Remaining votes will mostly be absent votes (pre-poll and election day). These votes were cast outside a voter’s home electorate, and need to be posted back to the home electorate before they can be counted. In past elections, absent votes have assisted Labor.

There are also seats, such as Fremantle and Pilbara, where no two-candidate count has yet been provided. In those seats, the electoral commission initially selected the wrong two candidates and needs to re-do the two-candidate count. Fremantle is the only seat likely to be won by a non-major party candidate.

Federal implications and the upper house

I don’t think there are many federal implications from state elections, but this election will give a morale boost for federal Labor after losing the Queensland election last October and being narrowly behind the Coalition in the polls since December.

When a state party is the same as the federal government, that party is federally dragged, and performs worse than it would if the opposite party held government federally. Labor’s big win does not suggest federal drag was a factor in WA.

However, WA accounts for only 16 of the 150 federal seats. Victoria, where federal Labor is being dragged down by an unpopular state Labor government, has 38 seats.

The Poll Bludger wrote that the Liberals had done poorly in swing terms since the 2021 election in affluent Perth seats, suggesting that affluent metropolitan federal seats won’t swing back to the Liberals, and teal independents should retain their seats.

In my preview article, I wrote that during the last term Labor had scrapped the old very malapportioned upper house system, and all 37 upper house members will be elected by statewide proportional representation with preferences. A quota is 1/38 of the vote or 2.63%.

In the upper house, 46.7% of enrolled voters have been counted, well behind the 61.3% in the lower house. Labor has 41.3%, the Liberals 27.9%, the Nationals 5.6%, the Greens 10.8%, One Nation 3.4%, Legalise Cannabis 2.8%, the Christians 2.6%, an independent group 1.3% and Animal Justice 1.1%.

On current counts, Labor would win 15 of the 37 seats, the Liberals ten, the Nationals two, the Greens four, One Nation one, Legalise Cannabis one and the Christians one. That would leave three seats undecided, with Labor, the Liberals and the independent group ahead.

However, there’s much more counting to go in the upper house, and the current counts don’t include below the line votes. The major parties do relatively badly on below the line votes and the Greens relatively well.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election – https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-third-successive-landslide-in-wa-election-251721

International Women’s Day activists protest in solidarity with Palestinians

Asia Pacific Report

Activists in Aotearoa New Zealand marked International Women’s Day today and the start of Ramadan this week with solidarity rallies across the country, calling for justice and peace for Palestinian women and the territories occupied illegally by Israel.

The theme this year for IWD is “For all women and girls: Rights. Equality. Empowerment” and this was the 74th week of Palestinian solidarity protests.

First speaker at the Auckland rally today, Del Abcede of the Aotearoa section of the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF), said the protest was “timely given how women have suffered the brunt of Israel’s war on Palestine and the Gaza ceasefire in limbo”.

Del Abcede of the Aotearoa section of the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF) . . . “Empowered women empower the world.” Image: David Robie/APR

“Women are the backbone of families and communities. They provide care, support and nurturing to their families and the development of children,” she said.

“Women also play a significant role in community building and often take on leadership roles in community organisations. Empowered women empower the world.”

Abcede explained how the non-government organisation WILPF had national sections in 37 countries, including the Palestine branch which was founded in 1988. WILPF works close with its Palestinian partners, Women’s Centre for Legal Aid and Counselling (WCLAC) and General Union of Palestinian Women (GUPW).

“This catastrophe is playing out on our TV screens every day. The majority of feminists in Britain — and in the West — seem to have nothing to say about it,” Abcede said, quoting gender researcher Dr Maryam Aldosarri, to cries of shame.

‘There can be no neutrality’
“In the face of such overwhelming terror, there can be no neutrality.”

Dr Aldosarri said in an article published earlier in the war on Gaza last year that the “siege and indiscriminate bombardment” had already “killed, maimed and disappeared under the rubble tens of thousands of Palestinian women and children”.

“Many more have been displaced and left to survive the harsh winter without appropriate shelter and supplies. The almost complete breakdown of the healthcare system, coupled with the lack of food and clean water, means that some 45,000 pregnant women and 68,000 breastfeeding mothers in Gaza are facing the risk of anaemia, bleeding, and death.

“Meanwhile, hundreds of Palestinian women and children in the occupied West Bank are still imprisoned, many without trial, and trying to survive in abominable conditions.”

The death toll in the war — with killings still happening in spite of the precarious ceasefire — is now more than 50,000 — mostly women and children.

Abcede read out a statement from WILPF International welcoming the ceasefire, but adding that it “was only a step”.

“Achieving durable and equitable peace demands addressing the root causes of violence and oppression. This means adhering to the International Court of Justice’s July 2024 advisory opinion by dismantling the foundational structures of colonial violence and ensuring Palestinians’ rights to self-determination, dignity and freedom.”

Action for justice and peace
Abcede also spoke about what action to take for “justice and peace” — such as countering disinformation and influencing the narrative; amplifying Palstinian voices and demands; joining rallies — “like what we do every Saturday”; supporting the global BDS (boycott, divestment and sanctions) campaign against Israel; writing letters to the government calling for special visas for Palestinians who have families in New Zealand; and donating to campaigns supporting the victims.

Lorri Mackness also of WILPF (right) . . . “Women will be delivered [of babies] in tents, corridors, or bombed out homes without anasthesia, without doctors, without clean water.” Image: David Robie/APR

Lorri Mackness, also of WILPF Aotearoa, spoke of the Zionist gendered violence against Palestinians and the ruthless attacks on Gaza’s medical workers and hospitals to destroy the health sector.

Gaza’s hospitals had been “reduced to rubble by Israeli bombs”, she said.

“UN reports that over 60,000 women would give birth this year in Gaza. But Israel has destroyed every maternity hospital.

“Women will be delivered in tents, corridors, or bombed out homes without anasthesia, without doctors, without clean water.

“When Israel killed Gaza’s only foetal medicine specialist, Dr Muhammad Obeid, it wasn’t collateral damage — it was calculated reproductive terror.”

“Now, miscarriages have spiked by 300 percent, and mothers stitch their own C-sections with sewing thread.”

‘Femicide – a war crime’
Babies who survived birth entered a world where Israel blocked food aid — 1 in 10 infants would die of starvation, 335,000 children faced starvation, and their mothers forced to watch, according to UNICEF.

“This is femicide — this is a war crime.”

Eugene Velasco, of the Filipino feminist action group Gabriela Aotearoa, said Israel’s violence in Gaza was a “clear reminder of the injustice that transcends geographical borders”.

“The injustice is magnified in Gaza where the US-funded genocide and ethnic cleansing against the Palestinian people has resulted in the deaths of more than 61,000.”

‘Pernicious’ Regulatory Standards Bill
Dr Jane Kelsey, a retired law professor and justice advocate, spoke of an issue that connected the “scourge of colonisation in Palestine and Aotearoa with the same lethal logic and goals”.

Law professor Dr Jane Kelsey . . . “Behind the scenes is ACT’s more systemic and pernicious Regulatory Standards Bill.” Image: David Robie/APR

The parallels between both colonised territories included theft of land and the creation of private property rights, and the denial of sovereign authority and self-determination.

She spoke of how international treaties that had been entered in good faith were disrespected, disregarded and “rewritten as it suits the colonising power”.

Dr Kelsey said an issue that had “gone under the radar” needed to be put on the radar and for action.

She said that while the controversial Treaty Principles Bill would not proceed because of the massive mobilisations such as the hikoi, it had served ACT’s purpose.

“Behind the scenes is ACT’s more systemic and pernicious Regulatory Standards Bill,” she said. ACT had tried three times to get the bill adopted and failed, but it was now in the coalition government’s agreement.

A ‘stain on humanity’
Meanwhile, Hamas has reacted to a Gaza government tally of the number of women who were killed by Israel’s war, reports Al Jazeera.

“The killing of 12,000 women in Gaza, the injury and arrest of thousands, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands are a stain on humanity,” the group said.

“Palestinian female prisoners are subjected to psychological and physical torture in flagrant violation of all international norms and conventions.”

Hamas added the suffering endured by Palestinian female prisoners revealed the “double standards” of Western countries, including the United States, in dealing with Palestinians.

Filipino feminist activists from Gabriela Aotearoa and the International Women’s Alliance (IWA) also participated in the pro-Palestine solidarity rally. Image: David Robie/APR

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Gallery: NZ women call for long-term peace and justice in Palestine

Asia Pacific Report

Women from Aotearoa, Philippines, Palestine and South Africa today called for justice and peace for the people of Gaza and the West Bank, currently under a genocidal siege and attacks being waged by Israel for the past 16 months.

Marking International Women’s Day, the rally highlighted the theme: “For all women and girls – Rights, equality and empowerment.”

Speakers outlined how women are the “backbone of families and communities” and how they have borne the brunt of the crimes against humanity in occupied Palestine with the “Israeli war machine” having killed more than 50,000 people, mostly women and children, since 7 October 2023.

The speakers included Del Abcede and Lorri Mackness of the International Women’s League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF), Gabriela’s Eugene Velasco, and retired law professor Jane Kelsey.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

View from The Hill: Alfred forces Albanese into budget of risks and opportunities

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The “maybe” March 25 budget is now a definite, the government’s hand forced by cyclone Alfred.

Anthony Albanese held open his option of calling an April 12 poll this weekend until the battering winds and waves and certain flooding made totally clear on Friday what had been obvious to many people from the start. Announcing an election on the back of a cyclone would be madness.

But the prime minister couldn’t quite bring himself to admit the April poll had been in his sights, although that was widely acknowledged within the government. He told the ABC late Friday, “I have very clearly said for a long period of time that we announced last year we’d produce a budget on March 25. That certainly is my clear intention, and has been.”

Which doesn’t exactly fit with quite a few people around the government, who had been on election alert, being left discombobulated by the turn of events.

This unavoidable budget presents opportunities and risks for the government.

It will frame the campaign that follows for a May election (the options are May 3, 10 or 17), and elevate the status of measures it contains (likely to include more relief for energy bills) from campaign promises.

It will also put front and centre the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, the government’s best communicator.

On the downside, as many have said, it will highlight a string of deficits. But independent economist Chris Richardson points out these numbers would have come out anyway, either in an economic statement the government probably would have brought down if there was no budget or (compulsorily) in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) prepared by Treasury and Finance and released in the campaign.

Richardson also argues that, deficits notwithstanding, the government will have good news to emphasise in the budget, about falling inflation and strong employment, plus revenue improvements since the mid-year budget update in December.

The government has already been announcing big spending items this year so it can’t afford, if it is being responsible, to throw too much more money around on March 25.

The pressures on the budget will be increased by the costs imposed by Alfred. Albanese said on Saturday, “This will have an impact on the national economy – there’s no question about that. Already it’s having an impact.”

The prime minister adopted a particularly high profile in the days leading up to and during the cyclone (even though state governments carry the big loads). The message is his government is here to, and able to, support people in times of trouble and need. There is the opportunity to use the experience of the cyclone to make this a more general theme in the budget – that the government has your back. That’s assuming the aftermath of the cyclone is not filled with stories of things going wrong.

Many in the commentariat are likely to approach the budget with a mindset of scepticism, just because it will be an election budget. This means the publicity around it might be more negative than positive.

Budget week will give opposition leader Peter Dutton the traditional reply on the Thursday night. Depending on how he handles himself, this could be a useful platform for him. On the other hand, an unconvincing speech would be damaging.

Then there are the Senate estimates hearings. These can be dangerous for a government, affording the opposition a forum to pull the budget apart and in practice to range more widely in quizzing officials.

We saw last week how potent Senate hearings can be, when they exposed details around the Chinese Navy’s live-fire exercise in the Tasman Sea. The hearings revealed the extent to which Australia had been caught short.

Back in the government’s engine room at the weekend, they say most of the major decisions for the budget have been taken. The focus will turn to last minute tinkering, and the messaging and cosmetics. But before he gets to that, Chalmers on Saturday was out and about in his Brisbane community of Logan, where the preoccupation remained the aftermath of now ex-tropical cyclone Alfred.

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. View from The Hill: Alfred forces Albanese into budget of risks and opportunities – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-alfred-forces-albanese-into-budget-of-risks-and-opportunities-251622

Brisbane is bracing for floods yet again. History shows residents should remain on very high alert

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Margaret Cook, Research Fellow, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University

Tropical Cyclone Alfred has passed – now downgraded to a tropical low. But do not be lured into a false sense of security. Grave dangers remain.

Parts of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales face heavy and prolonged rain this weekend. The system is slow-moving, which means rain could continue over several days. This brings the risk of flooding, including potentially destructive flash floods in populated urban areas.

Already, low-lying areas of the Northern Rivers in NSW have begun to flood. As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warned on Saturday, the downgrading of Alfred does not mean residents can relax, because there is “worse to come in the hours ahead”.

Locations at risk of major flooding include Brisbane, a subtropical city of more than 2.5 million people, situated on a river. As history shows, Brisbane must remain on high alert as ex-Cyclone Alfred enters a very wet phase.

Types of flooding in Brisbane

When heavy rain first starts falling, the water is mostly absorbed into the ground. But if the rain persists, the ground becomes saturated and the water drains into creeks and streams.

In very heavy rain, creeks and streams overflow and this causes flooding.

Several types of flooding occur in the Brisbane Valley:

– Flash flooding in creeks, which can be very fast and localised

– River flooding, which is slower than creek flooding. The river rises slowly and may remain above flood height for up to a week

– Backwater flooding, which occurs when flooding in the Brisbane River causes water to back up further upstream

– Storm surges, which typically occur with tropical cyclones. Cyclone Alfred brought storm surges, however this has largely dissipated

– Overland flooding, which occurs when stormwater drains overflow, or cannot cope with the water inflow.

Brisbane City Council says 20,000 properties are at risk of storm surge and flooding in the Brisbane River and creeks. The below flood maps were produced by Brisbane City Council earlier this week.



Lessons from history

Historically, floods in Brisbane are more often associated with rain depressions after cyclones, than cyclones themselves.

Take, for example, the Great Flood of Brisbane in February, 1893, which caused 35 known deaths. In the days preceding it, a cyclone passed to the north of Brisbane, bringing more than 900mm of rain over 24 hours to Crohamhurst.

In the 1893 event, water flowed over the D’Aguilar Range into the upper catchment of the Brisbane River (the Stanley and Upper Brisbane Rivers). This water travelled downstream and merged with extremely heavy rain that fell in Brisbane in January 1893.

As a result, Brisbane experienced severe flooding. The Brisbane River reached record heights of 8.35 metres.

Flooded streets of Brisbane in 1893.
Queensland State Archives

The rain depression following Cyclone Alfred looks likely to pass over the same area – just north of Brisbane – as it did in 1893. As a flood historian, I am obviously concerned about what this means for flooding in Brisbane in coming days.

Brisbane also experienced major flooding in 1974. It was caused by rain related to ex-tropical cyclone Wanda. That weather system brought more than 600mm of rain to Brisbane in three days.

And of course, the 2022 Brisbane floods are still fresh in many people’s minds. Then the Brisbane River peaked at 3.85m.

Heavy rain inundated the river’s network of 22 creeks and caused the most flooding. The situation was worst in north Brisbane, which received between 400 and 1000mm of rain over three days in late February. This was higher than the 1974 rainfall totals, and closer to the rainfall in 1893.

During the next phase of ex-tropical Cyclone Alfred, we must watch closely to see where rain falls, how much and for how long.

Preparation is key

If there are any positives to draw from Cyclone Alfred and its aftermath, it is that communities had time to prepare.

The cyclone wandered off the coast for two weeks, before heading towards land. It gave authorities time to mobilise and deliver clear, informative advice to the public.

Until recently, 97% of Australian disaster funding was spent on recovery, compared to 3% invested in mitigating risk and building resilience.

In my research and work with communities, I have advocated for proactive disaster action. This includes:

  • advanced evacuation
  • permanently relocating flood-prone residents
  • raising homes
  • rezoning to prevent development in flood-prone areas.

Bodies such as the National Emergency Management Agency, and reconstruction authorities in NSW and Queensland, are helping shift the dial towards proactive flood measures. But there is more work to do.

Armies of volunteers – and defence personnel themselves – emerge after disasters to help mop up. But I argue Australia needs an advanced party – a “flood army” if you will – that arrives before a disaster to help with preparedness such as moving possessions, cleaning gutters and drains and pruning trees.

And Brisbane’s complex picture of flood hazards means authorities must look beyond dams for flood mitigation. We must improve stormwater management, adopt new building designs and materials, and educate the public about coping with floods.

For now, affected residents should remain vigilant. Stay inside if you can so the authorities can do their work. Keep off roads and, as the slogan goes, “if it’s flooded, forget it”. Listen to the official warnings and don’t get complacent.

Margaret Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Brisbane is bracing for floods yet again. History shows residents should remain on very high alert – https://theconversation.com/brisbane-is-bracing-for-floods-yet-again-history-shows-residents-should-remain-on-very-high-alert-251719

How can parents talk to their kids about Cyclone Alfred?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Westrupp, Associate Professor in Psychology, Deakin University

Cyclones and floods are terrifying and unpredictable. The stress of ensuring your family’s safety, worrying about what might happen and then coping with the aftermath can feel overwhelming.

Some parents are also managing kids and young people through the crisis. You may be worrying about how these events may impact your kids going forward.

The situation is obviously very serious, but there are steps parents can take to protect their children and help them navigate the (now ex-tropical cyclone), flooding and the days that follow.

How we cope matters

Research shows the way we feel (for example, worry, fear, hope, confident) during and after traumatic events, can impact our longer-term mental health and wellbeing.

We might think distress is the most common reaction after a natural disaster. But in many cases, we can experience positive personal growth.

Research shows families do better when they actively work together, helping each other and problem-solving. Finding practical solutions together can give us a sense of control and connection.

Research also suggests if we have feelings of hope and confidence during difficult times, it can build resilience.

One way to help reduce distress is to accept the situation and acknowledge everyone’s emotions all the way through. This also helps build a sense of security and support.

Research also shows extreme reactions – such as fixating on the event/news and becoming highly distressed – or ignoring and suppressing emotions, can make it harder to cope and increase our distress.

So parents, keep calm and carry on

Parents are role models, and in stressful times, children look to us to understand the situation and how to respond.

If parents are visibly upset, fearful or anxious, it can make the situation feel out of control for children.

So while you are understandably experiencing a range of emotions, it’s helpful to process them away from young children. With older children, you can share feelings of sadness or fear, but it’s still important to remain calm to show that everything will be okay.

Sticking to familiar routines helps both you and your child feel safe. It reassures them when life continues. So, go about daily activities as best you can.

Talk things through if you need

This is not to say you should ignore the cyclone or events related to it.

Talking openly about the situation helps children understand what’s happening and gives parents the chance to reassure their kids. There’s no need to go into excessive detail – a calm, simple and factual response is usually the most effective way to comfort them.

All children are different. Some may be naturally anxious or sensitive, while others may pay less attention to what’s happening around them. In general, children are more capable of handling difficult or distressing events than we might expect.

If your child is upset or anxious, it’s important to acknowledge their emotions and listen. Empathise with your child — what has happened is frightening and their response is completely natural.

Parents may feel tempted to dismiss their child’s fears (“don’t think about it!”) to avoid making the situation worse, but emotions don’t work that way. By allowing children to express their feelings, you help them process and move through their emotions.




Read more:
How to get your kids to talk about their feelings


Restoring normal life after the storm

Once the cyclone passes, children may still feel unsettled – something big has just happened, could it happen again? It’s possible power and water are cut off, there’s flooding, or the family home is damaged, making things feel strange.

Helping them find ways to feel confident and hopeful can help speed up their recovery. Reassure your child the cyclone is over and keep offering them space to talk about what happened if they wish.

Though keep in mind, it’s important to strike a balance — while it’s helpful to let children express their emotions and connect with you, too much talk about the scary event can increase anxiety and fear.

Find things to do together to keep busy. Simple activities like arts and crafts, cooking together, or spending time outside (if it’s safe) can help restore a sense of normalcy.

If your child seems to be struggling more than expected, consider reaching out to your health professional or your child’s school for further support.

For more support and advice you can contact KidsHelpline on 1800 55 1800 or Lifeline on 13 11 14.

The Conversation

Elizabeth Westrupp receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council. She is affiliated with the Parenting and Family Research Alliance, Editor-in-Chief of Mental Health & Prevention, and is a registered clinical psychologist.

Emma Marshall was a recipient of a Fulbright Science and Innovation award

ref. How can parents talk to their kids about Cyclone Alfred? – https://theconversation.com/how-can-parents-talk-to-their-kids-about-cyclone-alfred-251712

After the winds, now comes the rain and floods. Here’s what you need to know about ex-Cyclone Alfred

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity Australia

After a wet and wild night, residents of southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales are assessing the damage wrought by Cyclone Alfred, which has been downgraded to a tropical low. While the damaging winds have dissipated, heavy rain and the potential for major flooding is the main concern now.

The low is expected to cross the mainland coast between Maroochydore and Bribie Island on Saturday morning, before moving inland and weakening later in the day.

Heavy rain and possible flash flooding is possible on Saturday and Sunday in parts of the Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers in NSW. Rivers are rising. Severe weather warnings and flood warnings are current for southeast Queensland and northeast NSW.

According to media reports, Lismore was expected to flood around noon and low-lying surrounding areas were already flooded.

A video update on ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred released by the Bureau of Meteorology on Saturday morning.

Six-hourly rainfall totals between 70mm and 130mm are likely, and may reach about 200mm in Queensland’s Border Ranges. Over a 24-hour period, rainfall totals between 150mm and 200mm are likely, and may increase to between 200mm and 300mm in some areas.

As of Saturday morning, authorities had asked Queensland residents in the storm’s path to take shelter. The State Emergency Service says northern NSW is facing “three natural disasters in one”, with gale-force winds, heavy rain and widespread flooding expected over the coming days.

In short: the danger is not over. Residents in affected areas should remain cautious and heed official advice, to keep themselves safe.

to come
An image showing 48-hour rainfall predictions from 8am Saturday.
The Bureau of Meteorology ACCESS 12km resolution model

High alert for heavy rain

Intense rain bands are forming between converging (or colliding) winds: warm, moist winds from the northeast, and southeast winds from the Coral Sea. As the winds converge, they push saturated air into cooler parts of the atmosphere where it condenses and may fall as torrential rain.

These rain bands can be very slow-moving, sometimes sitting almost stationary for hours. This means they can dump huge amounts of water.

That’s what we need to watch for now. If a slow-moving rain band forms over a catchment area, it could lead to dangerous flash flooding.

At the moment, a convergence zone seems to be forming over the south Sunshine Coast and north Brisbane. This may mean northern NSW may not bear the worst of the rain. However, that region has received solid rain over the past few days and is certainly not off the hook yet.

Satellite gif of ex-tropical cyclone Alfred hitting Queensland
Ex-tropical cyclone Alfred was downgraded to a tropical low.
Bureau of Meteorology, Himawari-9 satellite, CC BY-SA

Northern NSW has already been hit by devastating flooding in recent years, most recently in February 2022. Many of its settlements, including Lismore, are along or close to major river courses. Residents are understandably anxious about what the next few days of rain may bring.

Heavy rainfall in the Brisbane catchments remains a major concern. In Brisbane, some 20,000 properties have been warned of impacts ranging from minor inundation in yards to significant flooding inside homes. Areas most at risk include Nudgee Beach, Brighton, Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside and Rocklea.

The below flood maps were produced by Brisbane City Council earlier this week. Note, they include the potential for storm surge risk which is all but dissipated now.



Watching the winds and beach erosion

Overnight, high winds caused quite a lot of damage, including trees coming down on houses.

While the cyclonic winds have dissipated, there’s a risk that thunderstorms will drag down stronger winds from higher in the atmosphere on Saturday. Thunderstorm activity is possible from Brisbane’s south down to northern NSW. Some areas may experience damaging wind gusts as rain squalls come through.

Coastal erosion will continue for a while yet. Cyclone Alfred released a lot of energy into the ocean and that will take a while to release as damaging swells.

Swells remain high from the northern Sunshine Coast down to northern NSW, and beaches remain closed.

Beaches have been pummelled over the past few days, eating into the sand and creating cliff faces in dunes. Much work will be needed over the next few weeks and months to restore that sand.

Widespread power outages

According to the ABC, more than 200,000 homes were without power on Friday across south-east Queensland and northern NSW. The problem was set to worsen on Saturday.

Emergency officials have warned residents not to approach downed powerlines because they may be live.



What next?

The below map released by the bureau on Saturday predicts the weather system’s future movement and intensity. The grey zone indicates the range of tracks the centre of the ex-cyclone centre may follow.

It shows the system tracking west on Saturday, out to near the town of Dalby, then heading to the southwest.

This movement will take moisture with it, bringing rain to some inland catchments from Saturday evening and into Sunday.

The rainfall predictions are dependent on the movement and position of this erratic weather system.

If it slows down inland near the coast on Saturday, the ex-cyclone will keep feeding itself with moisture from the ocean.

This cyclone has already tricked scientists a few times over the past fortnight. We will continue to watch it closely.

The Conversation

Steve Turton has previously received funding from the federal government.

ref. After the winds, now comes the rain and floods. Here’s what you need to know about ex-Cyclone Alfred – https://theconversation.com/after-the-winds-now-comes-the-rain-and-floods-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-ex-cyclone-alfred-251793

Through the lens of time: A tribute to ‘Rocky’ Roe’s PNG photography

PROFILE: By Malum Nalu in Port Moresby

For nearly half a century, Papua New Guinea has been more than just a home for Laurence “Rocky” Roe — it has been his canvas, his inspiration, and his great love.

A master behind the lens, Rocky has captured the soul of the nation through his photography, preserving moments of history, culture, and progress.

He bid farewell to the country he has called home since 1976 in June 2021 and is now retired and living in Australia. We reflect on the extraordinary journey of a man whose work has become an indelible part of PNG’s visual history.

A journey born of adventure
Rocky Roe’s story began in Adelaide, Australia, where he was born in 1947. His adventure in Papua New Guinea started in 1976 when he arrived as a mechanical fitter for Bougainville Copper. But his heart sought more than the structured life of a mining camp.

In 1979, he took a leap of faith, moving to Port Moresby and trading a higher salary for a passion — photography. What he lost in pay, he gained in purpose.

“I wanted to see Papua New Guinea,” Rocky recalls. “And I got an opportunity to get paid to see it.”

Capturing the essence of a nation
From corporate photography to historic events, Rocky’s lens has documented the evolution of Papua New Guinea. He was there when leaders rose to prominence, capturing moments that would later adorn national currency — his photograph of Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare graces the K50 note.

His work went beyond the formal; he ventured deep into the Highlands, the islands, and bustling townships, preserving the heart and spirit of the people.

With each shot, he chronicled the changing landscape of Port Moresby. From a city of well-kept roads and modest housing in the 1970s to its present-day urban sprawl, Rocky witnessed and documented it all.

The evolution of photography
Rocky’s career spanned a transformative era in photography — from the meticulous world of slide film, where exposure errors were unforgiving, to the digital revolution, where technology made photography more accessible.

“Autofocus hadn’t been invented,” he recalls. “Half the world couldn’t focus a camera back then.” Yet, through skill and patience, he mastered the art, adapting as the industry evolved.

His assignments took him to mine sites, oil fields, and remote locations where only helicopters could reach.

“I spent many hours flying with the door off, capturing PNG from above. Looking through the camera made it all feel natural. Without it, I might have been scared.”

The man behind the camera
Despite the grandeur of his work, Rocky remains humble. A storyteller at heart, his greatest joy has been the connections he forged—whether photographing Miss PNG contestants over the years or engaging with young photographers eager to learn.

He speaks fondly of his colleagues, the friendships he built, and the country that embraced him as one of its own.

His time in Papua New Guinea was not without challenges. He encountered moments of danger, faced armed hold-ups, and saw the country grapple with law and order issues. Yet, his love for PNG never wavered.

“It’s the greatest place on earth,” he says, reflecting on his journey.

A fond farewell, but not goodbye
Now, as Rocky returns to Australia to tend to his health, he leaves behind a legacy that will live on in the countless images he captured. Papua New Guinea will always be home to him, and its people, his extended family.

“I may come back if someone brings me back,” he says with a knowing smile.

Papua New Guinea bids farewell to a legend, a visual historian who gave us the gift of memories frozen in time. His photographs are not just images; they are stories, emotions, and a testament to a life well-lived in the pursuit of beauty and truth.

Farewell, Rocky Roe. Your work will continue to inspire generations to come.

Independent Papua New Guinea journalist Malum Nalu first published this article on his blog Happenings in Papua New Guinea as part of a series leading up to PNG’s 50th anniversary this year. Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

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