Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Remember that cliche about the Nationals tail wagging the Liberal dog? That tail wagged very vigorously this week, and smashed a lot of crockery, as it sought to bring Liberal leader Sussan Ley to heel.

In a gesture of overreach, the Nationals split the Coalition on Tuesday, after Ley refused to accept their demand that four policies to which they were committed be immediately endorsed by the Liberals.

Ley had said the Liberal Party had all policies on the table and would review them systematically, and she would not pre-empt that. The new Liberal leader was also concerned Nationals’ leader David Littleproud had not explicitly agreed to her insistence the Nationals observe shadow cabinet solidarity – that frontbenchers could not go out freelancing on issues.

Ley won praise from Liberals and commentators for standing firm against the Nationals’ unilateralism.

But elders and MPs from both parties, knowing how dysfunctional the consequences of the split would be, were appalled at the break. It emerged that the National Party itself had been divided about this course, which would cost frontbenchers pay and probably lose Senate seats at the next election.

As Barnaby Joyce, who warned against the break, said subsequently, “Even from the start, people wanted to re-form as quickly as possible. […] Blind Freddy can see it was going to be chaotic.”

By late Wednesday Littleproud was taking a lot of heat for rushing something that could have been handled more judiciously. Littleproud tried to blame Ley for imposing a fast timetable, despite the fact her mother died last weekend.

If disaster was to be avoided, and the break repaired, Littleproud or Ley or both would have to give ground.

By Thursday morning time was fast running out. Ley was preparing to announce her all-Liberal shadow ministry; Littleproud was readying to put out a list of Nationals spokespeople for various policy areas. Once these teams were in place, it would be hard to retreat on the split. People would be locked into positions and there would be less appetite in either party to do so.

Amid these preparations, however, compromise was emerging.

Littleproud said on radio that he had accepted as “more than reasonable” Ley’s requirement for shadow cabinet solidarity.

One reason Ley was anxious to get a firm agreement on this was the prospect of a debate coming about the commitment to net zero emissions by 2050, as well as about the 2035 target, when the government announces it. Ley would not want the Nationals, if they were in a coalition, to be able to contradict opposition policy or try to set it ahead of the shadow cabinet.

At a Thursday press conference Littleproud said the solidarity issue arose from the Nationals’ action over the Voice in the last term. He and his party had reached a position ahead of the Liberals. “That actually hurt in some small way the relationship that I had with Peter [Dutton] and I lost trust and I had to rebuild that.”

Ley said she welcomed the solidity commitment “as a foundation to resolve other ,atters”, and agreed to take to a Liberal party meeting the four policies the Nationals wanted endorsed, These are commitments to nuclear energy, divestiture powers for supermarkets that do the wrong thing, a $20 billion regional future fund, and upgraded regional communications services.

The commitment on nuclear the Nationals want is not to the specific election policy, which was for a string of government-funded nuclear power stations. The Nationals are talking about something more general.

In her concession to the Nationals, Ley is essentially asking her party to carve out these priority policy areas from the Liberals’ general policy review. This can be seen as a big thing (the Liberals being dictated to by the minor party) or a small thing (making an exception for the greater good of keeping a coalition).

If the Liberals want to re-establish the Coalition, these policies will not be too hard for them to endorse.

Liberals are divided over nuclear but most could accept at least keeping it in the policy tool box, in a generalised form, such as a commitment to lift the moratorium.

But some Liberals will resent being forced to bow to Nationals’ wishes. And some, especially those with eyes on winning back city seats, have been relishing the prospect of being free of the constraint of the ties binding them to the noisy Nationals.

Thursday’s pause to determine whether the two parties can come together again was a major step. But there are likely to be difficult times ahead.

Having agreed to take the Nationals’ policies to her party room, Ley has now to smooth them through. That will take some private wrangling ahead of the general meeting, when that occurs next week.

Assuming the party room agrees and the Coalition is re-glued, the two leaders have to work out a shadow ministry, in terms of respective numbers and key positions.

Given the long-standing poor personal relationship between Littleproud and Ley, in a re-formed Coalition there would be ongoing suspicion and tension between the two of them. Angus Taylor, only narrowly defeated by Ley for the leadership and probably preferred by Littleproud, will be watching for opportunity.

The Nationals could be expected to push the envelope on policy issues, including net zero – which Joyce on Thursday said should be on the table – and the detail of divestiture. Moderates among the Liberals would have even less regard for their country cousins than usual.

Critics of Littleproud say he has been damaged by the way he has handled the week. They point out he keeps declaring it’s his party room that’s driving decisions, when he should have exercised stronger leadership and better judgement.

Depending on the outcome, it will take a while to determine whether this episode strengthens or undermines Ley’s leadership. But she could hardly have had a more bruising start.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: if Ley and Littleproud find a way to cohabit, it will be a tense household – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-if-ley-and-littleproud-find-a-way-to-cohabit-it-will-be-a-tense-household-256457

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Piet Filet, Adjunct Industry Fellow, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University

Heavy rain continues to fall across the Hunter and Mid North Coast of New South Wales. Rivers are bursting their banks and spreading over floodplains, leaving many areas on flood watch. And now, this emergency is heading south.

The unfolding disaster shows just how vulnerable rural catchments and regional communities are to extreme rainfall. It comes just a few months after extensive flooding hit western Queensland.

The flooding issues for rural and regional Australia are quite distinct from city areas, where populations are concentrated and urban runoff is the main danger. So what can Australia’s regional and rural communities learn from this extreme weather event?

Highly exposed communities

NSW’s Mid North Coast comprises farmland and bushland, with steep hilly country at the back of river catchments and more urban settlements closer to the coast.

Residents are spread across rural properties and lifestyle bushland blocks as well as local villages and bigger towns. Taree is home to about 17,000 people. About 50,000 people live in Port Macquarie and 36,500 live elsewhere in the Port Macquarie-Hastings local government area.

The population also swells with regular weekend and holiday visitors coming to enjoy coastal, river and mountain settings.

With people and communities spread right across these catchments, they can be left highly exposed when heavy rain falls. Flooding is likely, roads and rail are often cut off and life is turned upside down.

Short catchments in coastal areas fill rapidly

The nature of the landscape – including the geography, the size of the rivers and the shape of the catchment area – largely determines the flood hazard.

The catchments of the Mid North Coast feature short, east-flowing streams and rivers up against the Great Dividing Range. Some ranges are just 20–30 kilometres from the coast. Others are no further than 100–150km from the coast.

When heavy rain hits this steep bushland country, runoff water is quickly concentrated in streams. When these streams join with other creeks and waterways, the concentrated flows overwhelm the natural storage volumes of these waterways. So the water rises and breaks the banks, flowing out across the adjacent floodplains.

Prior rainfall along the east coast, over the past two to three months, means less moisture can soak into the soil and runoff increases. As a consequence:

• houses, community facilities and business are inundated

• river and creek crossings are being cut, low lying roads on floodplains flooded and railway lines threatened

• local water supply and sewerage treatment plants – often in low lying parts of the landscape – are at risk

• livestock and household pets, horses and other animals are at risk

• wildlife in bushland and waterways are being displaced

• local wetlands are being overwhelmed

• estuaries are being flooded and in some cases, slugs of sediment and nutrients are being washed downstream and out into coastal waters.

Other rural and regional communities face similar impacts during floods. As the magnitude of this event becomes clear, it is a timely warning for other communities to plan for future floods in their catchments.

The human dimension

As the flooding unfolds, the safety of people and their property is a high priority. Many people have been displaced, leaving their homes for safer locations. Others have been stranded by rising floodwaters.

Many will be feeling stress, fear and uncertainty. This will affect their mental health and wellbeing, and that of their families and local communities. So psychological support is needed both now and after the disaster.

Local and state government agency staff, non-government organisations and volunteers will be active at emergency response and recovery centres to support and guide affected people through this difficult time.

It’s vital that staff and volunteers are prepared and trained in mental health first aid.

Flood preparedness planning must also consider a mix of communication support networks for both the emergency response phase and the recovery phase. And there are opportunities to establish permanent community hubs for building resilience post floods, fires, cyclones and heatwaves.

Preparing for a new chapter

After the 2011 floods in southeast Queensland, I helped set up a national network of professionals striving to develop better ways to design, implement and sustain flood solutions for more resilient communities. This involves not the immediate emergency response, but the 10-50 year plans needed to help communities reduce the harm of flooding and adapt to climate-related risks.

Long-term flood-risk planning includes options on flood mitigation, such as dykes and levees. It also involves multiple approaches to adaptation, such as household flood resilience. This might mean raising houses off the ground, or relocating residents away from high-risk areas.

The approach, which started in collaboration with Brisbane City Council, is now being used in Queensland and New South Wales, and has been supported by the federal government.

In impacted cities, authorities and communities have committed to prioritising new ways to adapt and minimise the impacts from flood waters. Similarly in rural and regional areas, measures to reduce flood impacts – at both the landscape and household scale – must become more common, to ensure community resilience.

Piet Filet is affiliated with Flood Community of Practice

– ref. The deluge in NSW sounds a warning to rural and regional communities elsewhere – https://theconversation.com/the-deluge-in-nsw-sounds-a-warning-to-rural-and-regional-communities-elsewhere-256814

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mitchell Sarkies, Senior Lecturer, Horizon Fellow and NHMRC Emerging Leadership Fellow at the Sydney School of Health Sciences, University of Sydney

Floodwaters have engulfed large parts of New South Wales, with at least one person dead and almost 50,000 evacuated after days of heavy rainfall in a “one-in-500-year” flood event. The scale of the disaster is still unfolding and affected communities will be recovering for some time to come.

One question worth asking is: how ready are our hospitals to cope when disaster strikes?

A growing body of research, including our own, has looked at how hospitals might contend with disasters like floods, bushfires, heatwaves, cyclones or even mass injury events such as a stadium collapse. The answer? There’s room for improvement.

Australia is already prone to natural disasters, which are expected to become more frequent and severe as the climate changes.

Research around the world shows hospital administrators can better plan for how they’d cope if a disaster or terrorist attack wiped out their hospital’s capacity to function normally.

When flood strikes, large parts of the hospital stop working

In March 2022, rapidly rising floodwaters on Australia’s east coast posed an imminent threat to Ballina Hospital, on the NSW far north coast.

With a few hours’ notice, staff safely evacuated the whole hospital to a nearby high school. This included 55 patients, essential equipment, supplies and medications.

Our study documented this remarkable achievement via seven interviews with doctors and nurses integral to the evacuation.

Several key themes emerged:

• communication was disrupted: there was no mobile phone reception. Field hospital staff requested a satellite phone, but it was sent without any battery charge or a charging device
• staff shortages: flooded roads prevented doctors and nurses from reaching the hospital. However, they could get to the high school field hospital, which still had road access
• managing volunteers was tricky: community support was praised. However, there were so many volunteers, security was called to ensure volunteers didn’t get into spaces that would compromise the patient confidentiality, privacy and safety
• patient tracking was a challenge: it was hard to keep track of vulnerable evacuated patients with cognitive decline or behavioural impairment
• transport had to be improvised: cars, buses and taxis were used to transport equipment, medication and supplies
• triage for patient transfers and discharging was crucial: health professionals prioritised less critical patients first, as they often make up the majority. By swiftly addressing their needs, staff could then concentrate on the smaller group of patients requiring intensive care.

Some workers, dealing with their own personal losses during the evacuation, had to be sent home. One staff member told us:

There were a couple of nursing staff who also lived within the flood risk area, and they had children at home, so we needed to let them go home.

Another said:

We did end up with almost too many people wanting to help, which is lovely, but it becomes a problem because we don’t need this many people.

A third staff member said:

Everybody was accounted for. We had a list of patients at one end and then when they got there, they put a new list of who was there and who was coming; that was all written on a big whiteboard.

Disaster simulation: when a semi-trailer crash causes a stadium collapse

Natural disasters aren’t the only kind of catastrophe for which hospitals must prepare.

Our research has also looked at how hospitals might contend with a human-made disaster such as a mass casualty or injury event.

Our team studied a mass casualty simulation exercise at one of Australia’s largest public hospitals.

More than 200 hospital staff participated in the three‐hour long exercise, which simulated a semi‐trailer crashing into a stadium grandstand. Some 120 “patients” were taken to the hospital with crush, burn, smoke inhalation and other injuries.

In the simulation, clinicians had to adapt quickly. New patients were continuously coming via the ambulance ramp and private cars.

Participants had to make rapid collective decisions on treatment and transfers based on patient conditions and severity.

During the exercise, additional random disruptive scenarios were introduced to test the clinicians’ ongoing responses. This included the city mayor repeatedly calling the Hospital Emergency Operations Centre for updates.

Some key challenges included:

• some of the hypothetical patients died from a lack of critical care equipment
• an overwhelming number of minor injuries had to be managed
• clinicians were uncertain about how many casualties were en route to the hospital and how many beds to make available for them
• a shortage of orderlies to accompany transfers from the emergency department to surgical theatres or for scans
• difficulties in keeping track of patients and bed allocations.

We also observed hospital staff adapting to the situation. This included:

• paediatricians treating adult patients with minor injuries
• staff fast‐tracking triage
• staff manually ventilating patients using a specialised resuscitation balloon when mechanical ventilation equipment was unavailable
• running scans and imaging in batches instead of individually, due to the limited number of orderlies.

A growing body of research

Research shows that despite many hospitals having excellent, longstanding hospital disaster management plans, things can still go wrong. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, nearly half of evacuated stroke and renal failure patients died in vehicles or on arrival to another hospital.

Learning from hospital responses to disasters can help hospitals prepare for the future.

Overall, our research shows many Australian hospitals have excellent disaster preparedness planning. However, some areas require improvement well before disaster strikes. Adapting on-the-fly as your hospital is inundated with floodwater or struck by another disaster means things have been left too late.

Faran Naru is the recipient of a Macquarie University Research Excellence Scholarship (20203593). He works for the Australian government’s National Emergency Management Agency. This article reflects his work as a researcher, not the views of his employer.

Janet Long, Jeffrey Braithwaite, Kate Churruca, and Mitchell Sarkies do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Floods, fires and even terrorist attacks: how ready are our hospitals to cope when disaster strikes? – https://theconversation.com/floods-fires-and-even-terrorist-attacks-how-ready-are-our-hospitals-to-cope-when-disaster-strikes-257318

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Vella, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute for Musculoskeletal Health, University of Sydney

Around 4 million Australians experience back problems and people are increasingly calling ambulances and presenting to emergency departments to manage back pain.

Yet most of these cases of back pain don’t require emergency care. Back pain is a symptom rather than a disease. When symptoms last more than 12 weeks it is referred to as chronic back pain. The most common form of back pain is non-specific back pain – this term is given when no tissue or structure can be identified as the cause.

Non-specific back pain usually best managed in primary care, by GPs and allied health professionals.

Once people with non-serious back pain contact emergency health services, they are more likely to receive care that isn’t recommended and is considered low-value and, sometimes, harmful.

This may include unnecessary laboratory investigations, such as blood tests, and imaging, such as x-rays, CT scans or MRIs. One-third of imaging requests for back pain in emergency departments aren’t clinically warranted and are judged as inappropriate.

However, in some instances it is recommended that people with back pain contact an ambulance or present to the emergency department. This includes when back pain is a result of trauma, when people live alone without access to carers, when people have other complex presentations, and when people show signs of potentially serious conditions.

Unnecessary hospital admissions are costly to the health system and can cause patients harm. Almost one in four (24%) of those admitted to hospital for back pain acquire infections or experience falls.

Medications prescribed in hospital can also have negative consequences for the patient. Nearly one in ten patients with back pain are still taking opioids after discharge, with risk of dependency and overdose. One in three patients continue to use opioids one month after their emergency department visit.

Read more:
Opioids don’t relieve acute low back or neck pain – and can result in worse pain, new study finds

The influx of back pain presentations to emergency health services also has ramifications for emergency department overcrowding and ambulance ramping. This means other ambulance patients cannot enter the emergency department and results in longer waiting times.

Why is this happening?

In primary health care, the management of back pain is well established in clinical practice guidelines. But emergency health services don’t have guidelines specific to low back pain. This is likely due to the lack of evidence from these settings (though the evidence-base has increased over the past five years).

The lack of specific guidance means there is a high likelihood of people both missing out on the right care and receiving the wrong care.

A key challenge for emergency clinicians is discriminating between patients with back pain that require emergency care from those who do not.

One Australian study found 38% of patients in the emergency department who were initially diagnosed with non-serious back pain were later found to have a specific pathology, such as an infection, during hospital admission. In cases such as these, further diagnostic investigation and emergency care is necessary.

But nearly half of ambulance and emergency department patients without serious pathology receive unnecessary care. Our recent study found 81% of people who presented to ambulance service with non-traumatic back pain were transferred to the emergency department.

Once in the emergency department, 46% of ambulance patients received opioids, 59% received imaging and 50% were admitted. However, it’s unclear what proportion actually required emergency department care.

Clinicians are required to make quick decisions about patient care. For paramedics, limited scope of medications and access to community health services, particularly outside of business hours, ultimately leaves them with no other option but to transport the patient to hospital.

Emergency department clinicians have to manage people with complex presentations and multiple conditions and address patient expectations about opioids and imaging. This can influence their decisions about care.

How can emergency back pain care be improved?

A key area for improvement is reducing the use of opioids. An New South Wales trial reduced opioid use for back pain in emergency departments by 43% by introducing a new model of care. The model involved clinician education, implementation of non-opioid provisions such as heat packs, and timely referrals to outpatient services such as specialist back clinics.

This approach will now be scaled up to include 44 emergency departments across NSW. If successful, it could be rolled out across the country.

Virtual hospitals have also been implemented to reduce in-person presentations to emergency departments for back pain, which often means people with back pain can receive care while remaining in their home. However, the effectiveness and safety of this new service has not yet been established, though research is underway.

The Australian government has promised to open more Urgent Care Clinics, where people with urgent but not life-threatening complaints can be managed by a doctor, nurse, or in some cases, a physiotherapist. The service allows people with back pain to still receive in-person care while diverting them away from the emergency department. But while they seem like a good idea, we have little or no evidence on their value.

To reduce the burden that back pain places on emergency health services, changes need to be made across all health system-levels. But these changes must be backed by reliable research evidence.

Better information for patients and clinicians

The general public needs to be aware when and where to seek appropriate care for back pain. This can be achieved through successful health promotion initiatives.

For clinicians, specific guidelines for back pain need to be developed and implemented into ambulance and hospital emergency departments to improve decision-making and reduce unnecessary care escalation. Policymakers, health service managers and stakeholders need to revise current policy to align with the most recent evidence.

Additionally, easy-to-access referral pathways need to be developed between emergency health and community health services to keep people with non-serious back pain out of hospital, to reduce their risk of receiving unnecessary and costly care.

Simon Vella receives grant funding from HCF Research Foundation, Health Service Research Grant Scheme and the Australian Chiropractors Education Research Foundation. Simon is a board member of Chiropractic Australia Research Foundation.

Christopher Maher has a research fellowship from National Health and Medical Research Council, grants from National Health and Medical Research Council, Medical Research Future Fund, New South Wales Health, Ramsay Hospital Research Foundation, HCF Research Foundation, ArthritisAustralia, Australian Rheumatology Association, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, and Sao Paulo Research Foundation.

Gustavo Machado has an investigator grant from the National Health and Medical Research Council. He also holds research grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Medical Research Future Fund, and HCF Research Foundation.

– ref. Too many people with back pain call ambulances or visit the ED. Here’s why that’s a problem – https://theconversation.com/too-many-people-with-back-pain-call-ambulances-or-visit-the-ed-heres-why-thats-a-problem-255776

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Smith, Associate Professor and Discipline Lead (Paramedicine), La Trobe University

As unprecedented flooding inundates towns and leaves residents stranded in parts of New South Wales, local first responders have rescued hundreds of people from floodwaters and rooftops.

Volunteering Australia estimates more than 400,000 people volunteer as first responders around the nation. Around half of those volunteer in fire services and around 25,000 in state and territory emergency services. Thousands of additional “invisible” first responders help informally and spontaneously to support their communities before and after a disaster.

In a situation such as the current flooding in NSW, local first responders, many of whom are volunteers, face a difficult dilemma. How do they prioritise their commitment to their communities and the safety of the public while also protecting their own families and homes?

It’s a dilemma one of us (Cameron) knows too well. Cameron is a registered paramedic and volunteer firefighter, and responded to the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria in 2009. He’s well aware of the challenge first responders have to juggle – helping others while also ensuring their loved ones are safe.

It’s a juggle

During a disaster, first responders and their families may be at risk due to extreme weather and rising floodwaters, damaged infrastructure, and other dangers. First responders may need to evacuate homes, coordinate emergency services, and navigate dangerous conditions while trying to ensure their own family’s safety.

In rapidly evolving emergencies, they may also be faced with the choice to abandon their emergency work to prioritise their family’s safety, potentially placing their first responder colleagues at risk.

Even now, 16 years after the Black Saturday bushfires devastated parts of Victoria, Jessica Ciccosillo, a first responder with St John Ambulance Australia, still feels like she abandoned her community when it needed her the most. She told us:

I had a baby at home, and my husband was also volunteering during the disaster. We couldn’t both respond at the same time, so I stayed home with the baby. I also wanted to protect our animals and property. But the desire to help was so strong, and it was so hard to make the decision to stay at home and prioritise our own family.

It’s a moral dilemma

Finding the balance between helping others while their own families are at risk can create a moral dilemma for first responders, forcing them to make difficult decisions about where to focus their efforts.

These moral dilemmas can arise from conflicting values (such as having to follow organisational policies or directives that conflict with our personal beliefs), the need to make difficult decisions under pressure, or witnessing events that challenge their sense of what is right and wrong.

Moral dilemmas about who to priortise during an emergency situation can lead to a sense of moral injury, when people can feel guilty, ashamed and distressed about the choices they have made.

Families can suffer too

First responder work can significantly impact family members. Long and unpredictable hours can interfere with family activities and undermine their sense of support. Added to this is the constant fear for their loved one’s safety. When emergencies occur, these fears can be heightened.

Families may even experience vicarious trauma, where they absorb the stress and trauma of their loved one’s work, leading to their own mental health challenges.

First responders want to talk to someone who ‘gets it’

When we asked local first responders what would be most helpful for supporting their wellbeing, the message was clear: they want to talk about what they have experienced with someone who “gets it”.

Sharing their experience with supportive colleagues and peers offers a different kind of support for many responders who may not have benefited from, or want to use, more traditional counselling programs.

Emergency services organisations can also promote wellbeing by creating supportive cultures and strong leadership that focus on building mental-health literacy. Programs that address the needs of the whole family, rather than just the individual responder, can foster resilience.

For local first responders currently helping flood-affected communities in NSW, focusing on making small, short-term decisions can help them feel less overwhelmed and allow them to better manage their mental health.

There’s support

If you are a first responder and need support now, resources include:

• The National Emergency Worker Support Service, which offers free, confidential, and evidence-based mental health support, including 12 free sessions with trauma-informed clinicians

• Fortem Australia provides mental health support, including clinical support and wellbeing activities, for first responders and their families

• Beyond Blue offers the Police and Emergency Services Program to promote mental health and reduce suicide risk among police and emergency service personnel, including their families

• Phoenix Australia offers information, support and treatment options related to trauma for first responders, including the Responder Assist program

• The Code 9 Foundation provides support for first responders living with post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety and other mental health conditions resulting from their service to the community.

For families of first responders:

• This guide from the Emergency Services Foundation is intended to help families of emergency service workers, especially families of volunteers. It was developed with input from partners, children and other relatives who have experience living with an emergency service worker.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Cameron Anderson is a registered paramedic and volunteer firefighter.

Erin Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. In a flood, first responders balance helping others while their own families are at risk. It’s an impossible choice – https://theconversation.com/in-a-flood-first-responders-balance-helping-others-while-their-own-families-are-at-risk-its-an-impossible-choice-257313

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Digital Storytelling Team, The Conversation

At least one person is confirmed dead, three people are missing and tens of thousands are isolated after record-breaking floods continue to wreak havoc on the New South Wales coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology warned that heavy to locally intense rain would continue on the NSW Mid North Coast on Thursday, and that heavy rain would develop around the southern Hunter region, the Blue Mountains and the Southern Highlands on Thursday night.

The below maps show the extent of current and predicted NSW floods. Red indicates immediate danger, purple is current flooding, and yellow is predicted flooding. The striped red area shows where residents should be prepared for storms.

As The Conversation has reported, the wet weather in NSW is due to a combination of factors.

A trough is sitting over the Mid North Coast, bringing rain and unstable conditions. Winds from the east are also bringing moisture to the coast. And since Sunday, all this has been compounded by a “cut-off low” in the upper atmosphere. The combination of the trough, and low pressure at higher levels, can cause air to converge and rise. As air rises it cools, moisture condenses and rain occurs.

The NSW State Emergency Service advises that people:

• don’t drive, ride or walk through floodwater

• keep clear of creeks and storm drains

• seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescuing

• be aware that run-off from rainfall in fire affected areas may behave differently and be more rapid. It may also contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks

• stay vigilant and monitor conditions

For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

Digital Storytelling Team does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NSW on alert: these maps show the areas at risk of flooding and storms – https://theconversation.com/nsw-on-alert-these-maps-show-the-areas-at-risk-of-flooding-and-storms-257343

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Singh, Research Fellow, Allied Health & Human Performance, University of South Australia

You’ve seen them in every gym: tight black leggings, neon sleeves and even knee-length socks.

Compression gear is everywhere, worn by weekend joggers, elite athletes and influencers striking poses mid-squat.

But do compression garments actually improve your performance, or is the benefit mostly in your head?

Let’s dive into the history, the science and whether they are worth your money.

From hospitals to hashtags

Compression garments didn’t start in sport. They were originally used in medical settings to improve blood flow in patients recovering from surgery or with circulation issues such as varicose veins.

Doctors found tight garments that applied gentle pressure to limbs could help move blood and reduce swelling.

But in the late 1990s and early 2000s, athletes, scientists and sports brands began experimenting with compression wear in training and competition.

Companies such as SKINS, 2XU, and Under Armour entered the scene with bold promises: improved performance, reduced fatigue and faster recovery.

Then, by the 2010s, compression wear wasn’t just for athletes – it had become a fashion statement.

Social media helped drive the trend: influencers wore these items in gym selfies, TikTokers praised the sleek, sculpted look. And with the rise of athleisure, compression garments became everyday apparel, blending fitness with fashion.

What are these garments supposed to do?

Compression gear is designed to fit tightly against the skin and apply gentle, consistent pressure to muscles. The big claims made by manufacturers include:

• improved blood flow, helping oxygen get to muscles faster

• reduced muscle vibration, potentially lowering fatigue and soreness

• reduced muscle soreness through improvements in circulation and reduced inflammation

• quicker recovery by boosting blood flow and reducing muscle stiffness

• enhanced performance, including running faster, lifting heavier and improved endurance.

You’ll hear gym-goers say they feel “more supported” or “less sore” after using compression gear.

Some even report improved posture or a mental boost – like stepping into a superhero suit.

What the science says

Research into compression garments has been growing steadily and the results are mixed – but interesting.

A 2013 major meta-analysis reported moderate benefits across several recovery markers, including lower levels of creatine kinase (a sign of muscle damage) and less delayed-onset muscle soreness up to 72 hours after exercise.

A 2016 review found compression garments reduced muscle soreness and swelling and boosted muscle power and strength. These improvements were up to 1.5 times greater (compared to people who didn’t wear compression garments) in some cases.

Building on this, a 2017 review found people who wore compression gear recovered strength more quickly, with noticeable improvements within eight to 24 hours after a workout. Strength recovery scores were around 60% higher in those wearing compression gear compared to those who didn’t.

But the findings are not consistent. A 2022 review of 19 trials found little effect on strength during the first few days post-exercise.

And when it comes to actual performance, a comprehensive 2025 review of 51 studies concluded compression garments do not enhance race time or endurance performance in runners. And while they may reduce soft tissue vibration (which might feel more comfortable), they offered no meaningful edge in speed, stamina or oxygen use.

Overall, in simpler terms: compression gear may help you recover faster but don’t expect it to turn you into an Olympic sprinter.

When compression gear might help (and when it won’t)

Here are some situations when compression garments can be genuinely useful:

• helping reduce muscle soreness and support quicker recovery after exercise

• preventing swelling during long flights, especially for athletes travelling to competitions, and

• improving circulation for people with medical conditions such as poor blood flow in the legs (chronic venous insufficiency) or long-term swelling (lymphedema), especially when recommended by a health-care provider.

But don’t count on them to:

• improve your times: there’s no strong evidence they boost speed or endurance

• make you stronger: while some research has noted improvements in strength and power, this won’t necessarily have a noticeable effect on your athletic performance

• replace training or good sleep: recovery still depends on the basics – rest, hydration and nutrition.

So, should you wear them?

Compression outfits won’t magically transform your body or training results. But they aren’t a waste of money either.

If they make you feel more comfortable, confident or supported, that’s a valid reason to wear them. The psychological boost alone can be enough to enhance motivation or focus.

And when it comes to post-exercise recovery, the evidence is solid enough to justify keeping a pair in your gym bag.

Think of them like a good pair of shoes. They won’t run the race for you, but they might make the journey a little smoother.

And if you’re just wearing them for the outfit photo on Instagram? That’s fine, too. Sometimes, confidence is the best workout gear of all.

Ben Singh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Compression tights and tops: do they actually benefit you during (or after) exercise? – https://theconversation.com/compression-tights-and-tops-do-they-actually-benefit-you-during-or-after-exercise-255719

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jon Richardson, Visiting Fellow, Centre for European Studies, Australian National University

Russia’s possible interest in basing long-range aircraft at an Indonesian airbase not far from Australian shores shook up a relatively staid election campaign last month.

The news, which Jakarta immediately dismissed, caught many by surprise in Australia. It shouldn’t have. While Indonesia’s non-aligned stance makes granting such a request highly unlikely, Russia’s defence and political ties with Southeast Asia have actually been deepening over the last decade, at least.

All of this has gone largely unnoticed in Australia. And this highlights a significant problem: Australia has something of a knowledge deficit when it comes to Russia. This is in part due to the fact our expertise on the country has been hollowed out since the Cold War ended.

Russia’s power plays are expanding globally

The Soviet Union loomed large in Australia’s consciousness during the Cold War, if not high on its list of priorities.

Today, Russia remains a major, albeit slightly diminished, power. It is a nuclear weapons state (it has more than 5,500 nuclear warheads, the most of any nation) and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. It is also active in other forums of importance to Australia, such as the G20 and APEC, as well as in issues like arms control and climate change.

Most worryingly, under President Vladimir Putin, Russia will no doubt continue to be a disruptor on the international stage.

Russia’s political and security elite perceive the country to be a great power with interests and a right to influence in every part of the world. Just to drive that message home, a giant sign quoting Putin last year read: “Russia’s borders do not end anywhere”.

Even before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow perpetuated an ideology that it is at war with the West. This idea is a key source of legitimacy for Putin’s regime. Russia’s hostile actions against Western democracies continue to proliferate. These include disinformation campaigns, cyber attacks, election interference and, in some regions, sabotage and assassinations.

This isn’t focused entirely on Europe and the US, either. Russia has an active – and expanding – military presence in the Asia-Pacific. Russia’s Pacific Fleet, based in Vladivostok, now has more than 20 nuclear and conventional submarines and frequently engages in training exercises with the Chinese navy.

More “normal” relations with Russia will not return soon. A lasting peace in Ukraine seems unlikely if any interim ceasefire deal leaves large swathes of the country under a brutal Russian occupation regime. Putin is unlikely to let go of his ambitions to subjugate Ukraine and limit its independence.

While sanctions have made it harder for Moscow to conduct the war, the Russian economy also does not appear in danger of imminent collapse.

Meanwhile, Southeast Asia has proven susceptible to Russia’s anti-Western narratives, particularly when it comes to the claim that the Russian invasion was provoked by Western policies and threats. Most regional governments have been loathe to criticise the invasion and the leaders of Indonesia and Malaysia have made state visits to Moscow despite it.

Russia has had similar success in pushing disinformation through orchestrated social media campaigns across the Global South, including in parts of Africa where Australian companies have made significant investments in the mining sector.

Reviving Russia literacy

All these trends point to the need to enhance Australia’s modest level of Russia literacy, both in language skills and broader country expertise.

This was the key message of a recent conference on “Russian activities and Australian interests in the Indo-Pacific”, hosted by the ANU’s Centre for European Studies. It was attended by a wide range of government officials, academics, analysts and foreign diplomats.

Australia once had strong Russian-language departments at several universities. It also boasted numerous Russian and Soviet scholars of global repute, such as Harry Rigby, Sheila Fitzpatrick, Graeme Gill, Stephen Wheatcroft, Geoffrey Jukes and Stephen Fortescue.

Today, the number of university departments teaching Russian language, history or politics has dwindled, with only the University of Melbourne offering a major in Russian language and literature. That university has also added a much-welcomed fellowship in Ukrainian studies.

And Australia has few lecturers or researchers in international relations, history or social sciences with Russia expertise, including language skills.

We can – and should – return our university Russian offerings to the levels we had 30 years ago. This can be done without cutting back on the existing expansive focus on other countries and regions. There is also scope for greater focus on Russia and the former Soviet countries in government.

It will hard for Russia to shake off the pattern of failed government reform efforts defaulting to strong, centralised rule with imperial ambitions and an anti-Western posture.

But moves towards reform could eventually bear fruit (again) when Putin leaves the stage. If this were to happen, Russia would remain a major power with a rich cultural legacy and many common interests with Australia in areas such as natural resources. There is also a significant Russian diaspora in Australia.

For Australia, it is a mistake to think of Russia as somewhere far away. Both in simple geography – all state capitals except Perth are closer to Vladivostok than to New Delhi – and in terms of the interplay of global interests.

Or, as British commentator Keir Giles puts it: “You may not be interested in Russia, but Russia is interested in you.”

Jon Richardson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australia’s knowledge of Russia is dwindling. We need to start training our future experts now – https://theconversation.com/australias-knowledge-of-russia-is-dwindling-we-need-to-start-training-our-future-experts-now-256445

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julia Coffey, Associate Professor in Sociology, University of Newcastle

Like many of her peers, Abigail (21) takes a lot of selfies, tweaks them with purpose-made apps, and posts them on social media. But, she says, the selfie-editing apps do more than they were designed for:

You look at that idealised version of yourself and you just want it – you just want it to be real […] the more you do it, the better you get at it and the more subtle your editing is the easier it is to actually see yourself as that version.

Abigail was one of nearly 80 young people my colleagues and I interviewed as part of research into selfie-editing technologies. The findings, recently published in New Media & Society, are cause for alarm. They show selfie-editing technologies have significant impacts for young people’s body image and wellbeing.

Carefully curating an online image

Many young people carefully curate how they appear online. One reason for this is to negotiate the intense pressures of visibility in a digitally-networked world.

Selfie-editing technologies enable this careful curation.

The most popular selfie-editing apps include Facetune, Faceapp, and Meitu. They offer in-phone editing tools from lighting, colour and photo adjustments to “touch ups” such as removing blemishes.

These apps also offer “structural” edits. These mimic cosmetic surgery procedures such as rhinoplasty (more commonly known as nose jobs) and facelifts. They also offer filters including an “ageing” filter, “gender swap” tool, and “make up” and hairstyle try-ons.

The range of editing options and incredible attention to details and correction of so-called “flaws” these apps offer encourage the user to forensically analyse their face and body, making a series of micro changes with the tap of a finger.

A wide range of editing practices

The research team I led included Amy Dobson (Curtin University), Akane Kanai (Monash University), Rosalind Gill (University of London) and Niamh White (Monash University). We wanted to understand how image-altering technologies were experienced by young people, and whether these tools impacted how they viewed themselves.

We conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews with 33 young people aged between 18-24. We also ran 13 “selfie-editing” group workshops with 56 young people aged 18–24 who take selfies, and who use editing apps in Melbourne and Newcastle, Australia.

Most participants identified as either “female” or “cis woman” (56). There were 12 who identified as either “non-binary”, “genderfluid” or “questioning”, and 11 who identified as “male” or “cis man”. They identified as from a range of ethnic, racial and cultural backgrounds.

Facetune was the most widely-used facial-editing app. Participants also used Snapseed, Meitu, VSCO, Lightroom and the built-in beauty filters which are now standard in newer Apple or Samsung smartphones.

Editing practices varied from those who irregularly made only minor edits such as lighting and cropping, to those who regularly used beauty apps and altered their faces and bodies in forensic detail, mimicking cosmetic surgical interventions.

Approximately one third of participants described currently or previously making dramatic or “structural” edits through changing the dimensions of facial features. These edits included reshaping noses, cheeks, head size, shoulders or waist “cinching”.

Showcasing your ‘best self’

Young people told us that selfie taking and editing was an important way of showing “who they are” to the world.

As one participant told us, it’s a way of saying “I’m here, I exist”. But they also said the price of being online, and posting photos of themselves, meant they were aware of being seen alongside a set of images showing “perfect bodies and perfect lives”.

Participants told us they assume “everyone’s photos have been edited”. To keep up with this high standard, they needed to also be adept at editing photos to display their “best self” – aligning with gendered and racialised beauty ideals.

Photo-editing apps and filters were seen as a normal and expected way to achieve this. However, using these apps was described as a “slippery slope”, or a “Pandora’s box”, where “once you start editing it’s hard to stop”.

Young women in particular described feeling that the “baseline standard to just feel normal” feels higher than ever, and that appearance pressures are intensifying.

Many felt image-altering technologies such as beauty filters and editing apps are encouraging them to want to change their appearance “in real life” through cosmetic non-surgical procedures such as fillers and Botox.

As one participant, Amber (19), told us:

I feel like a lot of plastic surgeries are now one step further than a filter.

Another participant, Freya (20), described a direct link between editing photos and cosmetic enhancement procedures.

Ever since I started [editing my body in photos], I wanted to change it in real life […] That’s why I decided to start getting lip and cheek filler.

Altering the relationship between technology and the human experience

These findings suggest image-editing technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) filters and selfie-editing apps, have significant impacts for young people’s body image and wellbeing.

The rapid expansion of generative AI in “beauty cam” technologies in the cosmetic and beauty retail industries makes it imperative to study these impacts, as well as how young people experience these new technologies.

These cameras are able to visualise “before and after” on a user’s face with minute forensic detail.

These technologies, through their potential to alter relationship between technology and the human experience at the deepest level, may have devastating impacts on key youth mental health concerns such as body image.

Julia Coffey receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. ‘Perfect bodies and perfect lives’: how selfie-editing tools are distorting how young people see themselves – https://theconversation.com/perfect-bodies-and-perfect-lives-how-selfie-editing-tools-are-distorting-how-young-people-see-themselves-257134

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sandra Peter, Director of Sydney Executive Plus, University of Sydney

What if we could design a machine that could read your emotions and intentions, write thoughtful, empathetic, perfectly timed responses — and seemingly know exactly what you need to hear? A machine so seductive, you wouldn’t even realise it’s artificial. What if we already have?

In a comprehensive meta-analysis, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we show that the latest generation of large language model-powered chatbots match and exceed most humans in their ability to communicate. A growing body of research shows these systems now reliably pass the Turing test, fooling humans into thinking they are interacting with another human.

None of us was expecting the arrival of super communicators. Science fiction taught us that artificial intelligence (AI) would be highly rational and all-knowing, but lack humanity.

Yet here we are. Recent experiments have shown that models such as GPT-4 outperform humans in writing persuasively and also empathetically. Another study found that large language models (LLMs) excel at assessing nuanced sentiment in human-written messages.

LLMs are also masters at roleplay, assuming a wide range of personas and mimicking nuanced linguistic character styles. This is amplified by their ability to infer human beliefs and intentions from text. Of course, LLMs do not possess true empathy or social understanding – but they are highly effective mimicking machines.

We call these systems “anthropomorphic agents”. Traditionally, anthropomorphism refers to ascribing human traits to non-human entities. However, LLMs genuinely display highly human-like qualities, so calls to avoid anthropomorphising LLMs will fall flat.

This is a landmark moment: when you cannot tell the difference between talking to a human or an AI chatbot online.

On the internet, nobody knows you’re an AI

What does this mean? On the one hand, LLMs promise to make complex information more widely accessible via chat interfaces, tailoring messages to individual comprehension levels. This has applications across many domains, such as legal services or public health. In education, the roleplay abilities can be used to create Socratic tutors that ask personalised questions and help students learn.

At the same time, these systems are seductive. Millions of users already interact with AI companion apps daily. Much has been said about the negative effects of companion apps, but anthropomorphic seduction comes with far wider implications.

Users are ready to trust AI chatbots so much that they disclose highly personal information. Pair this with the bots’ highly persuasive qualities, and genuine concerns emerge.

Recent research by AI company Anthropic further shows that its Claude 3 chatbot was at its most persuasive when allowed to fabricate information and engage in deception. Given AI chatbots have no moral inhibitions, they are poised to be much better at deception than humans.

This opens the door to manipulation at scale, to spread disinformation, or create highly effective sales tactics. What could be more effective than a trusted companion casually recommending a product in conversation? ChatGPT has already begun to provide product recommendations in response to user questions. It’s only a short step to subtly weaving product recommendations into conversations – without you ever asking.

What can be done?

It is easy to call for regulation, but harder to work out the details.

The first step is to raise awareness of these abilities. Regulation should prescribe disclosure – users need to always know that they interact with an AI, like the EU AI Act mandates. But this will not be enough, given the AI systems’ seductive qualities.

The second step must be to better understand anthropomorphic qualities. So far, LLM tests measure “intelligence” and knowledge recall, but none so far measures the degree of “human likeness”. With a test like this, AI companies could be required to disclose anthropomorphic abilities with a rating system, and legislators could determine acceptable risk levels for certain contexts and age groups.

The cautionary tale of social media, which was largely unregulated until much harm had been done, suggests there is some urgency. If governments take a hands-off approach, AI is likely to amplify existing problems with spreading of mis- and disinformation, or the loneliness epidemic. In fact, Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has already signalled that he would like to fill the void of real human contact with “AI friends”.

Relying on AI companies to refrain from further humanising their systems seems ill-advised. All developments point in the opposite direction. OpenAI is working on making their systems more engaging and personable, with the ability to give your version of ChatGPT a specific “personality”. ChatGPT has generally become more chatty, often asking followup questions to keep the conversation going, and its voice mode adds even more seductive appeal.

Much good can be done with anthropomorphic agents. Their persuasive abilities can be used for ill causes and for good ones, from fighting conspiracy theories to enticing users into donating and other prosocial behaviours.

Yet we need a comprehensive agenda across the spectrum of design and development, deployment and use, and policy and regulation of conversational agents. When AI can inherently push our buttons, we shouldn’t let it change our systems.

Jevin West receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Knight Foundation, and others. The full list of funders and affiliated organizations can be found here: https://jevinwest.org/cv.html

Kai Riemer and Sandra Peter do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Evidence shows AI systems are already too much like humans. Will that be a problem? – https://theconversation.com/evidence-shows-ai-systems-are-already-too-much-like-humans-will-that-be-a-problem-256980

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chloe Keel, Lecturer in Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University

Crime and public safety are usually the domain of state politics. But the Coalition tried to elevate them as key issues for voters in the recent federal election.

Claiming crime had been “allowed to fester” under Labor, the opposition promised a A$750 million Operation Safer Communities plan, which included police strike teams targeting drugs, a national child sex offender register, and more money for Neighbourhood Watch.

A Coalition government would also have given grants to community groups to install public lighting, bollards and CCTV cameras.

But in the end, crime did not appear to be a deciding factor in the election, which was easily won by Labor.

What does that tell us about leveraging public fear – either existing crime fears and general anxieties, or latent concerns that can be triggered – for political gain in Australia? Can it be a successful strategy?

Stoking anxiety

In culturally diverse countries, such as Australia and the United States, law and order rhetoric sometimes calls for supporting aggressive crime policies at the expense of racial and ethnic minorities, many of whom are immigrants.

These policies can be effective in stoking public fear to win votes. US President Donald Trump’s exhortations on immigration and crime were a significant part of his election campaigns in 2016 and 2024.

However, what experts call “protective factors”, such as strong communities and social cohesion, are important. They can reduce the influence of political narratives that try to define crime in narrowly punitive or racialised terms.

Australia is not America

Our peer-reviewed research, which will be published in the Journal of Criminology, investigated how public concerns about crime and safety in Australia and the US were associated with demographic factors that evolved over time. The study drew on data from the World Values Survey and indicated key differences in what makes Australians and Americans feel unsafe.

We have found that in Australia in 2018, supporters of left-leaning parties (Labor/Green) reported feeling significantly safer than other voters. However, this gap disappeared when researchers took into account attitudes that blame crime problems on immigrants. This suggests immigrant-blaming in Australia can drive feelings of community fear and insecurity.

The World Values Survey uncovered a different pattern in the US.

Between 2011 and 2017, Republican voters reported feeling safer than other Americans – the opposite of Australia’s trend. The political divide in the US couldn’t be explained by immigrant-blaming attitudes. Rather, it was attributed to the “self-isolation” of American conservatives in more culturally homogeneous communities.

Our study indicated that while immigration continued to influence safety perceptions in the US, it appeared to operate through different mechanisms than in Australia. Racial and ethnic minorities reported greater fear as the 2010s unfolded.

Social connectedness also plays differently in each country. In Australia, trust in others and confidence in public institutions consistently influences safety perceptions. In the US, these factors have little impact.

Social scientists have observed that in modern societies, responsibility for personal safety has increasingly shifted from the government to individuals. This trend is strong in the US, where market-focused, neoliberal economic and social policies dominate policies.

By contrast, European research suggests stronger social welfare systems can reduce safety concerns by addressing underlying economic anxieties. Australia’s more robust social support appears to foster greater feelings of safety.

Our research indicates social cohesion further helps reduce fear.

Crime fears are not a vote winner

Electoral strategies that seek to leverage public insecurities need to be understood in the context of these fear-mitigating factors. Media diversity can also counter fear-based messaging.

In the 2018 Victorian election, crime became a prominent political issue through racialised commentary targeting “African gangs”. However, it failed to gain decisive political traction.

Research found fear of crime was relatively rare in Victoria. Media reports of crime and comments by political leaders were distant from their own experiences

With more diverse news sources and online platforms, political actors can no longer promote narratives unopposed. Fear-based messaging can backfire, especially when it overreaches.

Outdated strategy

Perceptions of crime are often shaped by a combination of actual crime rates and broader anxieties about social change, cultural difference, and uncertainty. This is frequently expressed as unease about the increasing presence of culturally diverse groups.

While the coalition’s pivot to law-and-order rhetoric represented a familiar strategy, Labor positioned itself as the party of unity. This was underscored by Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s declaration after Labor won the election, in which she acknowledged

[…] the power in our 26 million people from more than 300 ancestries […] from the oldest continuing civilisation on the planet and I acknowledge the traditional owners. Friends, we love this country.

While harnessing fears of crime and cultural diversity was not effective in this election cycle, this is not the end of law and order politics. But the unique characteristics of this election appear to have rendered the formula less potent.

Trump’s threat to democracy and the constitutional rule of law in the US may have fostered a sense of solidarity and social cohesion among Australian voters. Our research suggests this helped to mitigate fears about crime.

The temptation to capitalise on law and order may continue to appeal to politicians. But in Australia, at least, there is no guarantee it will work.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Playing the crime card: do law and order campaigns win votes in Australia? – https://theconversation.com/playing-the-crime-card-do-law-and-order-campaigns-win-votes-in-australia-256780

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mary Anne Kenny, Associate Professor, School of Law, Murdoch University

Australia’s policy towards refugees and asylum seekers stands at a critical juncture.

Global displacement is at record highs and many countries are retreating from their responsibilities. At this moment, Australia can lead by example.

As Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said on election night:

We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else. We do not need to seek our inspiration overseas. We find it right here in our values – and in our people.

Those values should guide a principled and evidence-based response to the global refugee crisis. This response should be grounded in fairness, humanity and respect for Australia’s international human rights obligations.

A principled reset

Australia is a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, which defines a refugee as a person who has a well-founded fear of persecution based on:

• race
• religion
• nationality
• membership of a particular social group
• political opinion.

However, aspects of Australia’s current approach to refugees have drawn criticism from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi.

The new Labor government could use its strength in parliament to initiate a principled and evidence-based reset. This could include:

• creating a new emergency visa for humanitarian crises to assist people fleeing conflict

• improving the efficiency and fairness of the asylum seeker process

• ending offshore processing of refugees

• streamlining the family reunification process

• making immigration detention an option that could be used at the discretion of the Department of Home Affairs, instead of being mandatory

• giving people access to independent review of their detention

• improving systems for LGBTQ+ asylum seekers (many of whom face heightened risks, are not always believed about their sexuality, and lack culturally sensitive support).

There are four key areas in particular need of reform.

1. Ending the legal limbo

A crucial priority is resolving the status of some 7,000 people who are part of what’s known as the “legacy caseload”.

These people were refused refugee status under a problematic and now-defunct process known as the “fast track assessment”. They are now on bridging visas and in legal limbo.

A solution is also needed for the roughly 1,000 people who were detained in offshore processing centres in Manus Island and Nauru but are now living in Australia. They are also on bridging visas, also in a state of legal uncertainty.

People in both these groups have endured 13 years in legal and policy limbo. Reform is long overdue.

One option is to allow people in both groups who were previously refused protection to apply for a permanent visa without requiring yet another drawn-out assessment of their protection claims.

Community organisations, legal experts and mental health professionals could help the government develop clear, trauma-informed and evidence-based processes for reviewing their cases.

2. Expanding the numbers

Australia’s main way of accepting refugees is via what’s known as the humanitarian program. But the number of refugees accepted under this program doesn’t currently reflect the scale of global displacement.

Labor has proposed expanding the number of refugees Australia takes.

It has suggested Australia take 27,000 through the core Refugee and Humanitarian Program and an additional 10,000 through two pathways:

• community sponsorship (which is where refugees are sponsored by Australians in the community)

• complementary pathways (which include refugees who arrive, for instance, via a skilled worker program).

At the UN’s 2023 Global Refugee Forum, the Australian government committed to gradually implementing this increase, beginning in 2023–24.

A dedicated advisory and coordination body could help with planning and implementation.

It’s also worth noting current policy prohibits asylum seekers registered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Indonesia after June 2014 from being resettled to Australia.

The new government could also consider lifting this arbitrary restriction to give these vulnerable refugees access to durable solutions.

3. Strengthening the rights of children and young people

Immigration systems are largely designed around adults. Children and young people are too often overlooked.

As a result, children have been:

• placed in immigration detention

• transferred to offshore processing centres, or

• separated from their families.

Children (including those born in Australia) can’t sponsor their parents via family sponsorship processes. They’re denied a say in decisions that deeply affect their lives.

The Migration Act should be amended to require that all decisions affecting children give primary consideration to the best interests and views of the child. This would be in line with Australia’s obligations under the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child.

Similar principles are already embedded in Australian family law and child protection policy, providing a clear model for reform.

4. Reviewing Australia’s boat turnback policy

Since 2013, Australia has intercepted boats under Operation Sovereign Borders, using turnbacks and takebacks with little independent oversight.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has raised concerns about this policy.

Sometimes during these interactions Australian officials detain and interview people on boats about their reason for trying to enter Australia, but details about what happens during such encounters are kept largely secret. Most of these encounters end with the boat and people on it being returned to the country from which they came.

A recent document published by the Commonwealth Ombudsman reported on conditions aboard vessels used for maritime detention.

It found serious problems, including no private spaces for sensitive interviews and no interpreters on board.

The Department of Home Affairs responded by saying formal interviews use accredited interpreters. However, the report highlights many crucial interactions do not.

There is also no time limit on detention at sea, and no independent monitoring of how protection claims are assessed.

A more comprehensive review is urgently needed.

Mary Anne Kenny is a member of the Migration Institute of Australia and the Law Council of Australia and an affiliate of the UNSW Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law. She was on the Ministerial Council on Asylum Seekers and Detention (an independent advisory body) between 2012 and 2018.

– ref. Labor now has the political clout to reset Australia’s refugee policy. Here’s where to start – https://theconversation.com/labor-now-has-the-political-clout-to-reset-australias-refugee-policy-heres-where-to-start-255971

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Moira Junge, Adjunct Clincal Associate Professor (Psychologist), Monash University

You might have heard of people using tape to literally keep their mouths shut while they sleep. Mouth taping has become a popular trend on social media, with many fans claiming it helps improve sleep and overall health.

The purported benefits of mouth taping during sleep are largely anecdotal, and include claims of better airflow, less snoring, improved asthma symptoms, less of a dry mouth, being less likely to have bad breath, and better sleep quality.

As the trend has gained momentum in recent years the claims have also come to include improved skin, mood and digestion – and even a sharper jawline.

The rationale for mouth taping during sleep is to encourage breathing through the nose rather than through the mouth. When a person’s nasal passages are blocked, breathing switches from the nose to the mouth. Mouth breathing has been linked to conditions such as obstructive sleep apnoea.

But is mouth taping an effective way to address these issues, and is it safe? A new review suggests taping your mouth shut while you sleep offers limited benefits – and could pose risks.

What did the review find?

In a new paper, Canadian researchers reviewed the scientific literature on mouth taping, searching for studies that mentioned terms such as “mouth breathing”, “mouth taping” and “sleep”.

They searched specifically for studies looking at people with known mouth breathing and breathing-related sleeping problems such as obstructive sleep apnoea to understand the potential benefits and harms of mouth taping for this group.

Obstructive sleep apnoea is a condition where your airway is partly or completely blocked at times while you’re asleep. This can cause you to stop breathing for short periods, called “apnoeas”. Apnoeas can happen many times a night, resulting in lowered oxygen levels in the blood as well as sleep disruption.

The researchers found ten eligible studies published between 1999 and 2024, with a total of 213 participants. Eight studies looked at mouth taping, and two studies involved using a chin strap to keep the mouth shut.

Only two studies identified any benefits of mouth taping for mild obstructive sleep apnoea. The observed improvements – to measures such as oxygen levels in the blood and number of apnoeas per hour – were modest.

And although they were statistically significant, they were probably not clinically significant. This means these changes likely wouldn’t make much difference to symptoms or treatment decisions.

The remainder of studies found no evidence mouth taping helps to treat mouth breathing or related conditions.

What’s more, four studies warned about potential serious harms. In particular, covering the mouth could pose a risk of asphyxiation (lack of oxygen that can lead to unconsciousness or death) for people whose mouth breathing is caused by significant blockage of the nasal airways. This kind of nasal obstruction could be a result of conditions such as hay fever, deviated septum, or enlarged tonsils.

In other words, mouth taping is definitely not a good idea if you have a blocked nose, as it’s unsafe to have both the nose and the mouth obstructed at the same time during sleep.

What’s the take-home message?

The authors concluded there are very few benefits and some potential serious risks associated with mouth taping in people who are mouth breathers or have obstructive sleep apnoea.

They did however note we need further high-quality evidence to better understand if mouth taping is safe and works.

This review didn’t focus on any research relating to mouth taping for proposed improvements to mood, skin, digestion, sharper jaw lines and other things, so the researchers could not draw conclusions about the efficacy and safety of mouth taping for those purposes.

Internationally, qualified sleep health professionals do not recommend mouth taping.

If you have concerns about your sleep, the best thing to do is to consult trusted scientific sources or a health-care professional who will be able to guide you to address the underlying causes of your sleep challenges.

Trying social media trends such as mouth taping before you seek expert advice could lead to delays in diagnosing serious conditions for which there are evidence-based treatments available.

Mouth taping should definitely not be attempted in children.

It’s possible that in some healthy adults, without respiratory conditions, without significant sleep disorders, and who don’t have tape allergies, that mouth taping could pose little harm and produce some modest benefits. But we don’t have enough evidence yet to know one way or the other.

Moira Junge is CEO of The Sleep Health Foundation. She is also affiliated with the Healthylife Health Advisory Board and is a psychologist and clinic director at Yarraville Health Group.

– ref. Please don’t tape your mouth at night, whatever TikTok says. A new study shows why this viral trend can be risky – https://theconversation.com/please-dont-tape-your-mouth-at-night-whatever-tiktok-says-a-new-study-shows-why-this-viral-trend-can-be-risky-256901

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caroline Shaw, Associate Professor in Public Health, University of Otago

Anyone who uses city roads will know e-bikes have become increasingly popular in Aotearoa New Zealand. But we also know rising e-bike sales have been predominantly driven by financially well-off households.

The question now is, can e-biking be accepted and embraced by people and communities where it is currently not happening? Three pilot programmes from around the country have now given us cause for optimism.

Understanding more about the barriers to e-bike access – especially in communities with low cycling levels or where income levels mean bikes are prohibitively expensive – has been one of the main gaps in our knowledge.

But over the past few years, we have been involved in projects designed to examine how e-bikes might work in such places. The three pilots were based in Mangere (South Auckland), Wainuiomata (Lower Hutt) and Sydenham (Christchurch).

These are all areas or communities with lower relative incomes and lower levels of cycling. The majority of individuals involved did not routinely cycle, and some hadn’t been on a bike for decades.

In all three pilots, the results were positive. In some cases, participants reported long-term, life-changing benefits.

What the pilot schemes showed

Each pilot was different. The Mangere programme loaned e-bikes to people for two to three months between 2022 and 2023 through a community bikehub. The Wainuiomata programme involved a longer loan period of one year over 2023, and was run through a health provider at a local marae.

The Christchurch programme, which ran between 2021 and 2024, was a free e-bike share scheme for tenants in a specific social housing complex, organised through a partnership with a shared e-bike provider.

Where needed, participants in all pilots were supported as they gained riding confidence and knowledge of safe cycling routes.

Participants in all the pilot programmes found e-biking acceptable, and they used and enjoyed the bikes. While these pilots were not set up to measure distance travelled, we know from other research that participants in e-bike access schemes ride on average 5km per day, half of which replaces car trips.

Individuals reported practical benefits such as being able to travel to their jobs, mental and physical health improvements, and not having to pay for petrol each week.

In the Wainuiomata pilot there were wider ripple effects, with participants reporting whānau members also started cycling as a result of the loan scheme. In one case, ten members of the wider whānau got involved.

3 policy actions needed now

These results mirror what we know already about how e-bikes can improve physical and mental health, reduce transport greenhouse gas emissions, and make cities nicer places by reducing car use.

Compared to conventional bikes, e-bikes also allow people to bike further and in hillier places. They are also great for groups with traditionally lower levels of cycling, such as people with health conditions, disabilities, older people and women.

It also seems concerns about increased rates of injury may be less significant than initially thought. Overall, the broad benefits of e-bikes have seen hundreds of access schemes developed globally, including many in New Zealand.

Combining international evidence and experience with the information from the three local pilot programmes, we see three main policy areas that will increase e-bike uptake and use in New Zealand.

1. Physical infrastructure: this is needed to support cycling in all our cities and larger towns, and would involve a combination of cycle lanes and low-traffic neighbourhoods, alongside expanded bike parking and storage.

The Climate Change Commission has recommended these networks be constructed, and experience from Wellington shows rapid construction is possible.

2. Targeted access schemes: these help people who can’t afford e-bikes. Without targeting, such schemes tend to be mainly used by the well-off. It’s likely we will need a range of options, such as short-term and long-term low-cost (or free) loans, rent-to-buy schemes or subsidies.

People should be able to access these schemes through a variety of organisations so as to target different motivations: saving money, improving health, commuting for work, ferrying children, environmental concern.

3. Local organisation networks: these support individuals and communities to access bikes, maintain them, provide rider training, run bike libraries, route finding and community events to support and encourage people to ride.

This wider support was a key factor to the success of the all pilots. Local organisations, champions and leaders are essential to help overcome some of the practical and cultural barriers that exist because we have such low levels of cycling.

Change is achievable

What we have outlined constitutes a different way of doing business for the transport sector. But there are already organisations doing a lot of this work, including bike hubs and cycling community organisations.

Others have infrastructure in place that could expand to encompass e-bike programmes, such as marae and community health centres. What is needed is a commitment to support these activities as part of core transport business policy.

We don’t need to wait for more research. The three things required – building infrastructure, increasing access and providing support programmes – are all understood and achievable.

E-bikes can and should play an important role in expanding New Zealand’s transport options and improving the wellbeing of its people.

Caroline Shaw receives funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand, University of Otago and Waka Kotahi/New Zealand Transport Agency.

Karen Witten receives funding from the Health Research Council of NZ, Ministry of Business Innovation & Employment,
Waka Kotahi/NZTA and Auckland Council.

Simon Kingham receives funding from Ministry of Business Innovation & Employment.

– ref. E-bikes for everyone: 3 NZ trials show people will make the switch – with the right support – https://theconversation.com/e-bikes-for-everyone-3-nz-trials-show-people-will-make-the-switch-with-the-right-support-255956

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor & Principal Fellow in Urban Risk & Resilience, The University of Melbourne

In the year 2000, almost 70% of all new cars sold in Australia were small passenger vehicles – mainly sedans and hatchbacks. But over 25 years, their share has dropped dramatically to just 17%, as a car “size race” took hold.

Now, SUVs and light commercial vehicles comprise almost 80% of the market. Four in five new vehicles sold in Australia today are an SUV, ute, van or light truck.

As larger vehicles become the new norm, they bring more road wear, urban congestion and demands on infrastructure such as parking.

It’s time to ask: should drivers of larger vehicles pay for the damage and disruption they cause, through higher registration charges? Generally, yes. Bigger cars mean bigger costs for everyone else. It’s only fair those costs are reflected in how we price their use of public roads.

Reasons for going big

There are several reasons for the shift to larger passenger vehicles in Australia. They include perceptions that bigger cars are safer and more prestigious, as well as lifestyle preferences.

A loophole in the luxury car tax also encourages car buyers to go big. The tax was introduced on imports in 2000 and this financial year applies to vehicles worth more than A$80,576.

Many utes and SUVs are exempt because they’re classified as light commercial vehicles. The exemption applies regardless of whether the car is used privately or for business.

Counting the costs on our roads

Larger vehicles – no matter how they are powered – generally impose bigger costs on society than smaller cars.

Large SUVs and utes (if powered by fossil fuels) have a far greater climate impact. On average, a small car emits 2,040 kilograms less carbon dioxide (CO₂) a year than a pickup truck.

But even big electric vehicles can cause climate harm. The substantial resources required to manufacture a large EV creates emissions, which may undermine the climate benefits electrification promises.

Large passenger vehicles also create health system costs. In road crashes, for example, they may better protect their occupants, but pose greater risks to others – especially pedestrians and those in smaller vehicles.

Research suggests for each fatal crash that occupants of large vehicles avoid, at least 4.3 fatal crashes involving others occur.

Bigger vehicles also need more space. Standards Australia has proposed making car-parking spaces larger to accommodate the trend to larger cars. Cities such as Paris have introduced higher parking fees for SUVs on these grounds.

Larger vehicles also slow overall traffic flow. For example, they have longer braking distances and other motorists tend to drive further behind them than smaller cars.

And at signalised intersections, a large SUV’s impact on traffic flows is equal to 1.41 passenger cars.

In real-world terms, these differences add up. In the United States in 2011, the annual cost of light-duty trucks on congestion and lost productivity was estimated at more than US$2 billion.

Then there’s the cost of road wear. You might think heavier vehicles just wear roads a bit faster than smaller ones. But in reality, the relationship is far more dramatic.

Let’s compare a vehicle with an axle weight of 500 kg and a vehicle with an axle weight of 1,000 kg. The second vehicle doesn’t produce double the road damage – it produces 16 times the damage. This phenomenon is known as the “fourth power rule”.

It means heavier vehicles cost far more in road maintenance. Curious to test it? The Road Damage Calculator lets you compare the relative impact of vehicles of different weights.

What does car rego pay for?

Vehicle registration offers a way to recoup the societal costs caused by large vehicles.

Part of car registration fees go toward administration, but they also help governments pay for the broader cost of vehicles on public infrastructure and shared spaces.

In Australia, car registration systems vary widely between states. Not all reflect the impact of the vehicles on the road.

In Victoria, fees are based mostly on location – whether the car is registered in a metropolitan, outer-metro or rural area. In the Australian Capital Territory, fees are calculated on a vehicle’s emissions.

Queensland and Tasmania use the number of engine cylinders to set fees – a rough proxy for vehicle size, but not a precise one.

In New South Wales and Western Australia, heavier vehicles pay more.

South Australia and the Northern Territory apply different models again, using a combination of settings not directly based on weight.

A fairer system

Larger vehicles take up more road space, contribute more to congestion, and cause exponentially more damage to road surfaces. These are exactly the kinds of impacts a vehicle registration system should help account for.

So, what would a truly equitable registration fee model look like? Based on the evidence, it would not only account for vehicle size and weight, but also how often the vehicle is driven. After all, a heavy car parked in a garage all year causes less impact than one on the road every day.

Several countries, including New Zealand, have adopted distance-based or road-use charging schemes for certain types of vehicles, which uses a combination of vehicle weight and distance travelled.

As our vehicle fleet continues to evolve, Australia should follow suit, with a smarter and more equitable registration fee system.

Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Drivers of SUVs and pick-ups should pay more to be on our roads. Here’s how to make the system fairer – https://theconversation.com/drivers-of-suvs-and-pick-ups-should-pay-more-to-be-on-our-roads-heres-how-to-make-the-system-fairer-252381

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Hoeksema, Professor of Ecology, University of Mississippi

When wood thrushes arrive in northern Mississippi on their spring migration and begin to serenade my neighborhood with their ethereal, harmonized song, it’s one of the great joys of the season. It’s also a minor miracle. These small creatures have just flown more than 1,850 miles (3,000 kilometers), all the way from Central America.

Other birds undertake even longer journeys — the Swainson’s thrush, for example, nests as far north as the boreal forests of Alaska and spends the nonbreeding season in northern South America, traveling up to 5,600 miles (9,000 kilometers) each way.

These stunning feats of travel are awe-inspiring, making it that much more tragic when they are cut short by a deadly collision with a glass window.

This happens with alarming regularity. Two recent scientific studies estimate that more than 1 billion birds – and as many as 5.19 billion – die from collisions with sheet glass each year in the United States alone, sometimes immediately but often from their injuries.

In fact, window collisions are now considered the top human cause of bird deaths. Due to window collisions and other causes, bird populations across North America have declined more than 29% from their 1970 levels, likely with major consequences for the world’s ecosystems.

These collisions occur on every type of building, from homes to skyscrapers. At the University of Mississippi campus, where I teach and conduct research as an ecologist, my colleagues and I have been testing some creative solutions.

Why glass is so often deadly for birds

Most frequently, glass acts as a mirror, reflecting clear sky or habitat. There is no reason for a bird to slow down when there appears to be a welcoming tree or shrub ahead.

These head-on collisions frequently result in brain injuries, to which birds often succumb immediately.

In other cases, birds are stunned by the collision and eventually fly off, but many of those individuals also eventually perish from brain swelling.

Other injuries, to wings or legs, for example, can leave birds unable to fly and vulnerable to cats or other predators. If you find an injured bird, contact a local wildlife rehabilitator.

Which windows are riskiest

Some windows are much worse than others, depending on their proximity to bushes and other bird habitats, what is reflected in them, and how interior lighting exacerbates or diminishes the mirror effect.

On our campus, some buildings with a great deal of glass surface area kill surprisingly few birds, while other small sets of windows are disproportionately deadly.

One particular elevated walkway with glass on both sides between the chemistry and pharmacy buildings is a notoriously dangerous spot. The glass kills migratory birds each spring and fall as they try to pass between the two buildings on their way to The Grove, the university’s central-campus park area with large old oak trees.

During the pandemic in 2020, student Emma Counce did the heart-heavy work of performing a survey of 11 campus buildings almost daily during spring migration. She found 72 bird fatalities in seven weeks. Five years later, my ornithology students completed a new survey and found 62 mortalities over the course of five weeks in 2025, demonstrating that we still have a lot of work to do to make our campus safe for migratory birds.

Thrushes, perhaps due to their propensity for whizzing through tight spaces in the shady forest understory, have been disproportionately represented among the victims. Others include colorful songbirds – northern parulas, black-and-white warblers, prothonotary warblers, Kentucky warblers, buntings, vireos and tanagers.

How to make windows less dangerous

The good thing is that everyone can do something to lower the risk.

Films, stickers or strings can be added on the exterior of windows, creating dots or lines, 2 to 4 inches apart, that break up reflections to give the appearance of a barrier.

Exterior screens and blinds work great too. Just adding a few predator silhouette stickers is not effective, by the way – the treatment needs to span the whole window.

When applied properly, window treatments can make a huge difference. An inspiring example is McCormick Place in Chicago, the country’s largest convention center, which notoriously killed nearly 1,000 birds in a single night in 2023. After workers applied dot film to an area of the building’s windows equivalent to two football fields, bird mortality at the lakeside building has been reduced by 95%.

The Bird Collision Prevention Alliance provides information on options for retrofitting home or office windows to make them more bird friendly.

Options for new windows are also becoming more common. For example, the new Center for Science & Technology Innovation on my campus, which features many windows, mostly used bird-friendly glass with subtle polka dots built into it. This spring, we found that it killed only four birds, despite a very high surface area of glass.

How you can help

When trying to make a difference on your home turf, I suggest starting small. Make note of which specific windows have killed birds in the past, and treat them first.

Use it as an opportunity to learn what approach might work best for you and your building. Either order a product or make something yourself and get it installed.

Then do another, and tell a friend. At the office, talk to people, find others who care and build a team to make gradual change.

With some creative solutions, anyone can help reduce at least this major risk.

Jason Hoeksema is affiliated with the University of Mississippi, Delta Wind Birds, and the Mississippi Ornithological Society.

– ref. Windows are the No. 1 human threat to birds – an ecologist shares some simple steps to reduce collisions – https://theconversation.com/windows-are-the-no-1-human-threat-to-birds-an-ecologist-shares-some-simple-steps-to-reduce-collisions-255838

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

This week, the Reserve Bank delivered welcome news for mortgage holders, with another 25 basis points rate cut.

With this cut, some are hoping that the cost-of-living pain will start to finally ease. Economists, however, are still wary of celebrating too early, with Trump’s tariffs still creating uncertainty on where the global economy will end up.

Back at home, a re-elected Anthony Albanese and his treasurer, Jim Chalmers, are pushing on with Labor’s second term agenda, with Chalmers flagging the need to fix Australia’s lagging productivity. When the new parliament meets, Labor’s controversial tax changes on superannuation, which failed to pass last term, will be an early test for the government.

Speaking with The Conversation’s Politics podcast, Treasurer Jim Chalmers outlines some of his priorities when Parliament resumes in July.

One of the things we’re really excited about legislating is the cut to student debt. That will take some of the burden off graduates, but it will also provide some cost-of-living help to students or graduates repaying a student debt. So that’s going to be a big priority.

In my own portfolio, obviously we’ve got the changes to the super arrangements, we’ve got the standard deduction we announced during the campaign, we’ve got some payments reforms that we need to legislate. So it will be a really busy agenda.

On increasing the superannuation tax on those with $3 million from 15% to 30%, with unrealised capital gains taxed, Chalmers defends the move, despite widespread criticism, including from former prime minister Paul Keating.

This is a modest change that we announced almost two and a half years ago now. We announced it at the beginning of 2023. We’re now in the middle of 2025. And what this change is about [is] making concessional treatment for people with very large superannuation balances, still concessional, but a little bit less so. And that will help us fund our priorities, whether it’s Medicare, the tax cuts, and other priorities in budget repair.

[…] I know that people have views about it. I know there’s a campaign in a couple of our newspapers about it. But this is all about making sure that it’s still concessional treatment. It only impacts about half a percent of people in the super system, with very large superannuation balances. It makes the system a bit fairer and it’s important in terms of the sustainability of the budget.

Despite Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock saying on Tuesday that due to global uncertainty there’s a small possibility of Australia falling into recession, Chalmers outlines the case for optimism.

I think first of all the Reserve Bank is doing diligent work looking at a range of scenarios from best case to worst case and central case. Just like the Treasury does […] And I think it’s helpful to remember, if you look at the Reserve Bank’s forecasts and the Treasury’s forecasts, neither the bank nor the Treasury is expecting our economy to shrink. In fact, in both instances the forecasts say that the economy will grow more strongly next year compared to the financial year that we’re about to finish.

[…] The international environment is casting a dark shadow over the global economy and our own economy. And that why it’s so important that the Australian economy has got the characteristics that you would want going into this volatility and unpredictability. You know, the lower inflation, the higher wages, the low unemployment, the budget’s in better nick than most countries around the world. We’re starting to see interest rates come down. The market’s expecting further interest rate cuts. And so we’re well placed and well prepared.

On a lighter note, Chalmers tells us what’s on his reading list over the winter break:

I just finished that Ezra Klein book called Abundance, which goes right to the core of some of these things you’re talking about, you know, how do we think in a progressive way about making our economy more efficient and more productive.

[…] I confess I’ve started the book about Joe Biden, the Jake Tapper book [Original Sin] […] And like everyone, I send my best wishes to the Bidens after that news that we got earlier in the week about his health.

[…] But I’m really excited about a new term, a new opportunity, working closely with [Finance Minister] Katy [Gallagher] to make sure we finish the fight on inflation, we make our economy more productive, we think more expansively about the big opportunities from AI and energy and some of these things that we’ve been talking about today. And I have been finding inspiration in trying to do a bit more reading this term so far than what I managed last term.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Jim Chalmers on keeping Australia out of recession amid the ‘dark shadow’ of global instability – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-jim-chalmers-on-keeping-australia-out-of-recession-amid-the-dark-shadow-of-global-instability-257228

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Victorian and NSW Nationals senators due to face the voters at the 2028 election will struggle to hold their seats if the former partners do not re-form the Coalition before then.

Under usual Coalition arrangements, Bridget McKenzie, from Victoria, who is Nationals Senate leader, and Ross Cadell, from NSW, would have been set to be number two on the joint Senate ticket in their respective states. This would have assured them of re-election.

But if they have to run on separate Nationals Senate tickets, it will be hard for them to garner enough votes to be re-elected. One reason is the Nationals would not have candidates in urban lower house seats, and so their Senate how-to-vote tickets wouldn’t be handed out in those areas.

As Liberals reeled after the Nationals’ sudden desertion of the Coalition on Tuesday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley is working on her all-Liberal opposition frontbench, to be announced Thursday or Friday.

Senior Victorian Liberal Dan Tehan said: “We’re all still in a state of shock of the outcome. I don’t think people have really come to terms with it.”

Nationals MP Darren Chester, from Victoria, urged negotiations between the parties to continue. He warned “if we go to the next sitting of parliament being two divided party rooms we are giving a free pass to the prime minister”.

Nationals leader David Littleproud continued to defend his party’s shock decision to split the Coalition.

He told the ABC “plenty of political commentators” were taking potshots.

“Well, good luck, they don’t understand what it is to be a Nat. What it is to live and to know and to hear the stories of people who are in danger because of mobile phone towers. Young families that can’t afford their mortgage because they can’t go back to work, because they can’t find a childcare place, because there are none.”

Asked if the Nationals were prepared to stay on the backbench indefinitely if the Liberals didn’t meet their demands, Littleproud said, “Well, if we get to a juncture after the next election where we can form a government with the Liberal Party, then obviously we’re going to support the Liberal Party. But there will be conditions, and the conditions are about those things that are core to making the lives of those people that we represent better”.

Former prime minister Tony Abbott joined John Howard in urging an early rapprochement. Abbott said, “I deeply regret the Coalition split and hope that it can be re-formed as soon as possible. History shows that the Liberals and the Nationals win together and fail separately.” On Tuesday  Howard warned of the negative consequences of the split.

Liberal deputy leader Ted O’Brien said the Nationals’ decision was “more than disappointing”.

He said the parties were “stronger together” and he hoped over time the Nationals will “draw the same conclusion that we are better together than we are apart”.

With three-cornered contests one issue now the parties are not in coalition, McKenzie was asked whether she would be relaxed about the Liberals running in all Nationals seats.

“This is one of the serious risks of the decision we took yesterday,” she said, adding it had been “part of our thinking as went forward”.

“We also see it as an opportunity to put a very strong proposition for rural and regional Australia to those communities.

“At the end of the day, though, Coalition arrangements are matters for our state parties – so the LNP in Queensland, the NSW state Nationals and also the Victorian Nationals.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Coalition split puts Victorian and NSW Nationals Senate seats at high risk – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-coalition-split-puts-victorian-and-nsw-nationals-senate-seats-at-high-risk-256456

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew King, Associate Professor in Climate Science, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, The University of Melbourne

Emergency crews were scrambling to rescue residents trapped by floodwaters on Wednesday as heavy rain pummelled the Mid North Coast of New South Wales.

In some areas, more than 200 mm of rain has fallen in 24 hours. At the town of Taree, low-lying areas are flooded as the Manning River reached record levels, passing the 1929 record of six metres.

At the same time, South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia are in drought amid some of the lowest rainfall on record.

So what is going on, and when will the wet weather end?

Why is NSW so wet?

The wet weather in NSW is due to a combination of factors.

A trough is sitting over the Mid North Coast and stretching offshore. Troughs are areas of low pressure and can bring rain and unstable conditions. This trough is bringing extensive cloud and rain to the affected region.

In addition, winds from the east are also bringing moisture to the coast.

Since Sunday, all this has been compounded by a “cut-off low” in the upper atmosphere. These low-pressure systems are separated from the main westerly flow of winds, and often move slowly.

The combination of the trough near the ground, and low pressure at higher levels in the atmosphere, can cause air to converge and rise. As air rises it cools, moisture condenses and rain occurs.

In the next few days, the cut-off low will move away but is likely to be replaced in the same region by another upper-level low-pressure system moving in from the southwest. This will likely mean heavy rain over the east coast region in the coming days and into Friday.

On top of all this, a persistent high pressure system in the Tasman Sea is also pushing cloud onto the NSW coastline.

An upper-level low with a high in the Tasman is a typical set of conditions for flooding on the NSW Mid North Coast. Those conditions are also forecast to persist for the coming days.

So why are parts of Australia in drought?

The NSW north coast was quite wet in March and April – partly due to a hangover from Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

That meant the ground was already wet and full when rain began falling this week. So instead of soaking in, the water more easily turned to runoff and became floodwater.

This is in contrast to much of Australia, which was unseasonably dry and warm in March and April.

But the differences are not unusual. Australia is a big place, and rainfall dynamics are quite localised. It’s fairly common to see very wet conditions in one area and very dry conditions in another.

Unfortunately the current heavy rain in NSW probably won’t make a huge difference to drought-stricken areas. The moist air flows are likely to dry out as they cross the Great Dividing Range. But a change in weather patterns means from Sunday, rain may fall in some areas of Victoria and South Australia suffering from drought.

Is climate change causing this?

As the planet warms, scientists are very confident that Earth’s average surface temperature will warm, and heatwaves will get worse. However, rainfall projections are much less certain.

Projecting all types of precipitation is difficult. The water cycle is complex. Climate models – while powerful – can struggle to accurately simulate local rainfall patterns. And these patterns vary considerably over time – a natural phenomena that can make the climate trend hard to identify.

So what does this mean for autumn rainfall projections for Australia in future? None of the rainfall projections show a strong signal, and so scientists do not have high confidence in the results.

Having said this, there’s a hint of a drying trend across southwest Western Australia and parts of western Victoria and southeast South Australia, where conditions are dry now.

And for the Mid North Coast of NSW, currently experiencing heavy rain and flooding, autumn rainfall projections hint at slightly at heavier extreme rainfall.

Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and the National Environmental Science Program.

Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne and is supported by the Australian Research Council.

– ref. NSW is copping rain and flooding while parts of Australia are in drought. What’s going on? – https://theconversation.com/nsw-is-copping-rain-and-flooding-while-parts-of-australia-are-in-drought-whats-going-on-257235

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Counting in several extremely close seats continues, but some results have become clearer. In Liberal-held Bradfield, Teal candidate Nicolette Boele has taken the lead, while the Calwell distribution of preferences indicates an independent is on track to pass the Liberals and benefit from their preferences against Labor. Meanwhile, Jacqui Lambie may have a problem in the Tasmanian Senate contest.

Labor has won 93 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the Coalition 43, all Others 12 and two remain undecided (Bradfield and Calwell). After Tuesday’s split between the Liberals and Nationals, the ABC has the Liberals on 28 seats and the Nationals on 15, with the Liberals to form the official opposition.

The Australian Electoral Commission has 18 Liberals, nine Nationals and 16 seats won by Queensland’s Liberal National Party. LNP members can caucus with either the Liberals or Nationals, so they are splitting 10–6 to the Liberals.

I will continue to use Coalition in my coverage of this election, as the Liberal and National parties contested the election as the Coalition. It would be difficult to split the LNP vote into its Liberal and National components.

In the close seats, Boele leads the Liberals by 43 votes in Bradfield. She had trailed by 43 votes before the final votes were counted on Monday. The Poll Bludger said the last 181 formal postals counted favoured Boele by 125–56, giving her 69% of that batch.

Of the just over 14,000 total formal postal votes counted in Bradfield, the Liberals have won by 56.4–43.6. But late postals are often much better for the left than early ones.

What’s happening now in Bradfield is a full distribution of preferences, in which candidates are excluded from the bottom up on primary votes. If the margin after this distribution is complete is under 100 votes, there will be an automatic recount.

In Goldstein, Teal incumbent Zoe Daniel’s late surge has fallen short, as she trails Liberal Tim Wilson by 135 votes with everything counted, in from a 292-vote deficit last Thursday.

As with Bradfield, there will now be a full distribution of preferences in Goldstein. If the margin after this distribution is under 100 votes, there will be a recount. Daniel could also request a recount, but even if there is a recount, Wilson is very likely to win.

In Labor-held Calwell, which has 13 candidates, final primary votes were 30.5% Labor, 15.7% Liberals, 11.9% for independent Carly Moore, 10.7% for independent Joseph Youhana, 8.3% for the Greens and 6.9% for independent Samim Moslih.

The danger for Labor is that either Moore or Youhana overtake the Liberals on the distribution of preferences, then beat Labor at the final count on Liberal preferences. The AEC has a page that is updated with each exclusion in the preference distribution.

After six exclusions, the totals are 32.8% Labor, 17.1% Liberals, 14.7% Moore, 12.1% Youhana, 9.9% Greens, 7.9% Moslih and 5.6% One Nation (to be excluded next). Analyst Kevin Bonham says Moore needs 7.5% more than the Liberals to make the final two, and 67% of overall preferences to beat Labor. For Youhana, these figures are 13.4% and 69%.

Lambie may have a problem in the Tasmanian Senate contest

I have previously covered the Senate count. There have only been minor changes to the primary votes since that May 9 article. The Poll Bludger has modelled the state Senate contests using 2022 election preference flows.

According to this model, Labor will win the last seat in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, but only narrowly in WA. In Tasmania, Jacqui Lambie and the Liberals would edge out Labor. As I wrote previously, this result would give Labor 30 of the 76 total senators, the Coalition 27, the Greens 11, One Nation two and others six.

For a state a quota is one-seventh of the vote or 14.3%. In Tasmania Labor has 2.48 quotas, the Liberals 1.65, the Greens 1.13, Jacqui Lambie 0.51, One Nation 0.35 and Legalise Cannabis 0.24. One Nation will be the last exclusion, and whichever of Labor, the Liberals or Lambie is last after One Nation’s preferences are distributed loses.

There’s evidence that One Nation’s preferences have become better for the Coalition at this election than in 2022. In Capricornia, which had a One Nation primary vote of 15.5%, the LNP share of overall preferences increased nine points since 2022 to 62%.

Lambie wants the salmon farming industry to stop farming in Macquarie Harbour and says they should move offshore. This stance could cost her preferences from One Nation and other right-aligned parties.

I expect One Nation and other right-wing preferences in Tasmania to go strongly enough to the Liberals to give the Liberals one of the last two undecided seats, with the final seat between Labor and Lambie.

Labor is pro-salmon farming, so perhaps Lambie could benefit from Greens and Animal Justice preferences (the Greens have a small surplus over one quota and Animal Justice has 0.09 quotas).

Tasmanian poll and upper house elections

A Tasmanian state EMRS poll, conducted May 13–17 from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor 31% of the vote (up one since February), the Liberals 29% (down five), the Greens 14% (up one), the Jacqui Lambie Network 6% (down two), independents 17% (up five) and others 4% (up one).

Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two-party estimate is not applicable. Incumbent Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net favourability was down four points to +6, while Labor leader Dean Winter’s was down one to +5. Rockliff led Winter by 44–32 as preferred premier (44–34 previously).

Every May two or three of Tasmania’s 15 upper house seats are up for election for six-year terms. The Poll Bludger said Tuesday that current upper house standings are four Liberals, three Labor, one Green and seven independents. On Saturday there will be elections in Liberal-held Montgomery, Labor-held Pembroke and independent-held Nelson.

European elections wrap

I covered Sunday’s European elections in Romania, Portugal and Poland for The Poll Bludger. In Romania the centrist defeated the far-right candidate by 53.6–46.4, but the left had a dismal result in Portugal. I also covered recounts in the April 28 Canadian election and polls ahead of the June 3 South Korean presidential election.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Counts in Bradfield and Calwell become clearer, while Jacqui Lambie faces a possible problem in the Tasmanian Senate – https://theconversation.com/counts-in-bradfield-and-calwell-become-clearer-while-jacqui-lambie-faces-a-possible-problem-in-the-tasmanian-senate-257122

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Houlihan, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Psychology, University of the Sunshine Coast

Can you only start a boring admin task once your house is clean? Do you leave the trickiest emails to the end of the day?

Delaying a goal or task – usually to do something less important instead – is known as procrastination and it affects many of us. Most people report procrastinating some of the time, but for others it can be chronic.

While procrastination is common, it can be frustrating and lead to feelings of shame, guilt and anxiety.

Here’s why you might be avoiding that task – and five steps to get on top of it.

Am I procrastinating?

You might find yourself putting off starting something, abandoning it before it’s finished or leaving it to the very last minute.

Thoughts such as “I can catch up later” or “I’ll turn it in late” can be telltale signs of procrastination. Maybe you’ve Googled “Why do I procrastinate?” while procrastinating and have come across this article.

Other times, you might not even be aware you’re doing it. Perhaps you look up and realise you’ve been scrolling online shopping and kitten videos for the past hour, instead of doing your assignment.

Procrastination is not a character flaw, and it doesn’t mean you’re lazy or even bad at managing time. Framing it this way can make you feel even worse about the behaviour, and stops you learning the real reasons behind it.

If you want to stop procrastinating, it’s important to understand why you do it in the first place.

Why do I procrastinate?

Procrastination can be a way of dealing with tricky emotions. Research shows we put off tasks we find boring or frustrating, as well as those we resent or that lack personal meaning.

We may avoid tasks that create stress or painful emotions, such as completing a tax return where you owe a lot of money, or packing up a parent’s house after their death.

There a few deeper reasons, too.

Procrastination can be a sign of perfectionism. This is when an intense fear of failure – of getting something wrong – creates so much pressure to be perfect that it stops us from even getting started.

People with low self-esteem also tend to procrastinate, whether or not they experience perfectionism. Here, it’s a negative self-view (“I’m not good at most things”) coupled with low confidence (“I probably won’t get it right”) that gets in the way of beginning a task.

Distraction can be a factor, too. Most of us battle constant interruptions, with pings and alerts designed to redirect our attention. But being very easily distracted can also be a sign you’re avoiding the task.

For some people, difficulty completing tasks could be a sign of an underlying issue such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. If you’re worried procrastination is affecting your day-to-day life, you can speak to your doctor to seek help.

Is procrastination ever helpful?

It depends.

Some people enjoy the pressure of a deadline. Leaving a task to the last minute can be a strategy to improve motivation or get it done in a limited time.

Procrastination can also be a coping mechanism.

Delaying unpleasant tasks may make us feel better in the moment. Avoiding the task may mean we don’t have to face the possibility of getting it wrong, or the negative emotions or consequences it involves.

But this usually only works in the short term, and in the long term it’s more likely to cause problems.

Procrastination can trigger self-criticism as well as negative emotions such as guilt and shame.

In the long term it can also lead to mental health problems including anxiety and depression. Procrastinating has even been linked to poor outcomes in education – such as being caught copying in exams – and at work, including lower salaries and higher likelihood of unemployment.

So what can we do about it?

5 steps to tackling procrastination

1. Face it – you’re procrastinating. Being able to identify and name these patterns is the first step to overcoming procrastination.

2. Explore why. Understanding the underlying causes is key. Are you afraid of getting it wrong? Is your to-do list unrealistic? Or do you just love a tight deadline? If your procrastination results from perfectionism or low self-esteem you may wish to explore evidence-based treatments such as cognitive behavioural therapy, with a therapist or through self-guided activities.

3. Start prioritising. Take a good look at your to-do list. Are the most urgent or important things at the top? Have you given yourself enough time to complete the tasks? Breaking a task into smaller chunks and taking regular breaks will help prevent you from becoming overwhelmed. If you’re not sure what’s the most important, try talking it through with someone. If you tend to leave the most boring things to the last minute and then never get around to them, set some time aside at the start of each day to get these tasks done.

4. Avoid distractions. Set your phone to “do not disturb”, hang a sign on the door, tell those around you you’ll be “offline” for a little while. Setting a clear start and end time can help you stick to this rule.

5. Build in rewards. Life is hard work – be kind to yourself. Whenever you complete a difficult task or cross something off your to-do list, balance this by doing something more enjoyable. Building in rewards can make facing the to-do list a little bit easier.

Catherine Houlihan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why do I procrastinate? And can I do anything about it? – https://theconversation.com/why-do-i-procrastinate-and-can-i-do-anything-about-it-255770