Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeannie Marie Paterson, Professor of Law, The University of Melbourne

In Australia, it’s scam victims who foot the bill for the overwhelming majority of the money lost to scams each year.

A 2023 review by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) found banks detected and stopped only a small proportion of scams. The total amount banks paid in compensation paled in comparison to total losses.

So, it was a strong statement this week when it was revealed the Australian Financial Conduct Authority (AFCA) had ordered a bank – HSBC – to compensate a customer who lost more than $47,000 through a sophisticated bank impersonation or “spoofing” scam.

This decision was significant. An AFCA determination is binding on the relevant bank or other financial institution, which has no direct right of appeal. It could have implications for the way similar cases are treated in future.

The ruling comes amid a broader push for sector-wide reforms to give banks more responsibility for detecting, deterring and responding to scams, as opposed to simply telling customers to be “more careful”.

Here’s what you should know about this landmark ruling, and what it might mean for consumers.

Read more:
Australia’s new scam prevention draft is welcome – but it needs to be broader in scope

A highly sophisticated ‘spoofing’ scam

You might be familiar with “push payment” scams that trick the victim into paying money to a dummy account. These include the “mum I’ve lost my phone” scam and some romance scams.

The recent case concerned an equally noxious “bank impersonation” or “spoofing” scam. The complainant – referred to as “Mr T” – was tricked into giving the scammer access to his HSBC account, from which an unauthorised payment was made.

The scammer sent Mr T a text message, purportedly asking him to investigate an attempted Amazon transaction.

In an effort to respond to the (fake) unauthorised Amazon purchase, Mr T revealed security passcodes to the scammer, enabling them to transfer $47,178.54 from his account and disappear with it.

The fact Mr T was dealing with scammers was far from obvious – scammers had information about him one might reasonably expect only a bank would know, such as his bank username.

On top of this, the scam text message appeared in a thread of other legitimate text messages that had previously been sent by the real HSBC.

AFCA’s ruling

HSBC argued to AFCA that having to pay compensation should be ruled out under the ePayments Code, a voluntary code of practice administered by ASIC.

Under this code, a bank is not required to compensate a customer for an unauthorised payment if that customer has disclosed their passcode. The bank argued the complainant had voluntarily disclosed these codes to the scammer, meaning the bank didn’t need to pay.

AFCA disagreed. It noted the very way the scam had worked was by creating a sense of urgency and crisis. AFCA considered that the complainant had been manipulated into disclosing the passcodes and had not acted voluntarily.

AFCA awarded compensation covering the vast majority of the disputed transaction amount, lost interest charged to a home loan account, and $5,000 towards Mr T’s legal costs.

It also ordered the bank to pay compensation of $1,000 for poor customer service in dealing with the matter, including communication delays.

Other cases may be more complex

In this case, the determination was relatively straightforward. It found Mr T had not voluntarily disclosed his account information, so was not excluded from being compensated under the ePayments Code.

However, many payment scams fall outside the ePayments Code because they involve the customer directly sending money to the scammer (as opposed to the scammer accessing the customer’s account). That means there is no code to direct compensation.

Still, AFCA’s jurisdiction is broader than merely applying a code. In considering compensation for scam losses, AFCA must consider what is “fair in all the circumstances”. This means taking into account:

• legal principles
• applicable industry codes
• good industry practice
• previous AFCA decisions.

Relevant factors might well include whether the bank was proactive in responding to known scams, as well as the challenges for individual customers in identifying scams.

Broader reforms are on the way

At the heart of this determination by AFCA is a recognition that, increasingly, detecting sophisticated scams can be next to impossible for customers, which can mean they don’t act voluntarily in making payments to scammers.

Similar reasoning has informed a range of recent reform initiatives that put more responsibility for detecting and responding to scams on the banks, rather than their customers.

In 2023, Australia’s banking sector committed to a new “Scam-Safe Accord”. This is a commitment to implement new measures to protect customers, including a confirmation of payee service, delays for new payments, and biometric identity checks for new accounts.

Changes on the horizon could be more ambitious and significant.

The proposed Scams Prevention Framework legislation would require Australian banks, telcos and digital platforms to take reasonable steps to prevent, detect, report, disrupt and respond to scams.

It would also include a compulsory external dispute resolution process, like AFCA’s, for consumers seeking compensation for when any of these institutions fail to comply.

Addressing scams is not just an Australian issue. In the United Kingdom, newly introduced rules make paying and receiving banks responsible for compensating customers, for scam losses up to £85,000 (A$165,136), unless the customer is grossly negligent.

Jeannie Marie Paterson has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council and conducted research for ASIC and AFCA. She is currently working on a project on AFCA determinations with Dr Nicola Howell and Evgenia Bourova. The scams research has been assisted by Andrew Lim.

Nicola Howell has previously conducted funded research for ASIC and is currently working on a project on AFCA determinations with Professor Jeannie Paterson and Evgenia Bourova. Nicola is affiliated with the Consumers’ Federation of Australia, as a member of the CFA Executive.

– ref. Could a recent ruling change the game for scam victims? Here’s why the banks will be watching closely – https://theconversation.com/could-a-recent-ruling-change-the-game-for-scam-victims-heres-why-the-banks-will-be-watching-closely-241558

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University

Brendan Cowell’s 2021 novel Plum has expertly wed two seemingly unnatural partners: rugby league and poetry. Cowell’s story is both an ode of love to rugby league, and a powerful exploration of the catastrophic effects of sport-induced brain injury.

This story has now been brought to life in an ABC drama of the same name. It brilliantly reflects the experience of many players who are left to suffer – often in silence – with the long-term costs of the game.

A theatre of damage revealed

Our introduction to the main character, Peter “The Plum” Lum (played by Cowell), is jarring. Plum’s body lies motionless in a darkened changing room, enveloped by the distant sounds of a roaring stadium full of fans, a sharp referee’s whistle and the commentator’s pitched voice: “this poor bloke, he has had his head absolutely battered”.

We watch the doctor’s light worryingly cast to and fro across Plum’s dazed gaze, while his heavily pregnant wife’s concerned face looms large. Much larger, however, is the coach’s demand: “get the salts doc” – and his insistence that “the only way he (Plum) isn’t going back out there (on the field) is if he is fucking dead”.

And so the act proceeds, with Plum, like many athletes before and after him, returning heroically to the field. Though his team is victorious – another trophy retained – we’re forced to consider the unspoken costs of his love for the game.

These costs are amplified once the adoration from Plum’s fans and teammates, and his mantle as Cronulla’s king, are no more. We come to know a shell of a man who is desperate to deny, despite the advice of his doctor, the cognitive and other effects of the “little jolts” and “hard head knocks” experienced throughout his career.

The intensity with which Plum keeps his health condition a secret, and the ongoing abuse he levels on his body, provide a window into the lived experiences of many rugby league players. While this game gives, it also takes more than its fair share.

Masculinity and collision sports

The series highlights the emerging scientific link between collision sports such as rugby league and degenerative brain conditions including CTE-induced dementia – as well as attempts to discredit this science and silence the voices of athletes and families seeking redress from league administrators.

Contact and collision sports have often required athletes to sacrifice their brains and bodies in the pursuit of glory and success.

While a diagnosis of the degenerative brain disease Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE) can only be made posthumously, Plum displays many of the hallmark symptoms: impaired judgement, impulse control issues, aggression, depression and anxiety.

Viewers are taken into the deep fog of this existence. As a 1990s playmaker, Plum had fame but not fortune. Nearing 50, working at an airport, we see a traumatic near-miss as he experiences an epileptic seizure.

His forgetfulness leaves him unable to remember his favourite player’s name at a Cronulla Sharks corporate event. He suffers confusion and anxiety. Aggressive acts, including punching holes in bedroom walls, become his daily pain and shame.

Plum’s absent father’s advice to “never take a backwards step” also echoes throughout the series, reflecting the deeply embedded view of rugby league as a hard sport played by equally hard men.

This hard man veneer is grounded in stoicism – and for Plum and his former teammates, in unhealthy addictions to gambling, drugs and grog. Plum repels his family and friends, making his world intentionally small for fear he might forget something or someone. The series brings to the fore the raw and visceral effects of hypermasculinity and not speaking out.

Rugby league and poetry

The series also features poetry and the presence of past literary figures (conjured in Plum’s mind) such as Charles Bukowski and Sylvia Plath. As viewers, we see Plum’s internal dialogues with these apparitions, but his family and friends can’t.

Plum also joins a local poetry group, where his decaying brain finds purpose and connection. This unlikely outlet becomes his therapy. It comforts him and provides him a space to communicate his experiences with the outside world. Through his ode to rugby league, we witness him come closer to clarity.

Read more:
Why a portrait of a former NRL great could spark greater concussion awareness in Australia

All the while, Plum’s son is a talented player on the verge of a professional rugby league contract. And although Plum doesn’t regret a minute of his playing career, his prognosis leaves him urging his son away from the sport’s theatre of damage. This is a decision echoed by many parents in real life.

The future of collision sports

Reflecting on the potential impact of his book and the ABC series, Cowell imagines a space where the competitive commercial rivalries between football codes such as AFL, rugby union and soccer are suspended.

Instead of competing for a greater share of the market via trivial one-upmanship, sport leagues could pool their resources to invest in science that helps us understand and prevent sport-induced brain trauma.

Considering how many rugby players conceal and/or fail to report concussive episodes, we’ll need a major cultural shakeup at all levels of the game – because a love for the game should never come at the expense of oneself.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. When does the love of the game outweigh the cost? ABC’s Plum brings rugby league’s concussion crisis to the fore – https://theconversation.com/when-does-the-love-of-the-game-outweigh-the-cost-abcs-plum-brings-rugby-leagues-concussion-crisis-to-the-fore-240550

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brett Montgomery, Senior Lecturer in General Practice, The University of Western Australia

A new study has found a link between hormonal intrauterine devices (IUDs) and breast cancer.

The research is important, but media reports of a large increase in risk may be causing unnecessary worry.

Let’s put the findings in perspective for people who use IUDs.

What are IUDs?

IUDs are commonly used contraceptive devices. They sit inside the uterus (womb) to prevent pregnancy.

Older versions contain copper as their active ingredient. Newer “hormonal” IUDs slowly release a synthetic progesterone called levonorgestrel. This mimics the body’s natural progesterone hormone.

Both the copper and hormonal types of IUD are highly effective at preventing pregnancy over many years. Fertility is readily restored when they’re removed.

But the hormonal IUDs have the extra advantage of making periods lighter and less painful. Some people have one inserted for these reasons, even if they don’t need contraception.

Many women experience pain on insertion or spotting in the first few months of use. But compared to other contraceptives, women generally find IUDs very acceptable and continue to use them.

What did the new study find?

The new study, by researchers from Denmark, used data from national health registries to look for links between hormonal IUD use and breast cancer.

They tracked nearly 80,000 people who started hormonal IUDs across two decades. They compared these people to an equal number of people born at the same time who did not use hormonal IUDs.

On their raw numbers, you might think hormonal IUDs prevented breast cancer, because there were 720 cases of breast cancer in the hormonal IUD group, and nearly 900 in the other group. But that’s not the full story.

Ideally, when researchers study the effects of medicines, they do a “randomised controlled trial”, where researchers use chance to decide whether people get one treatment or another. This ensures the two groups are very similar apart from the treatment being studied. That’s not what happened here.

Read more:
Randomised control trials: what makes them the gold standard in medical research?

Instead, they simply studied people who had decided to have a hormonal IUD, and compared them to people who didn’t. This means the groups were different in many other ways.

So, the hormonal IUD group and the other group might appear to have a different risk of breast cancer – not because of the IUDs, but because of their other differences. For example, more highly educated women might be more likely to choose IUDs, and also more likely to attend breast cancer screening, where their breast cancer would be discovered.

The researchers “adjusted” their results to account for many differences between the two groups (including education, age, number of children, and some other medicines and medical conditions). After this “adjustment”, the numbers pointed in a different direction: towards a higher risk of breast cancer among people who used a hormonal IUD.

However, there are many other important risk factors for breast cancer the authors seem not to have adjusted for, such as body weight, alcohol use, smoking and physical activity. If there were differences between the two groups in these things, then the study’s results may still be biased. This makes me quite uncertain about the results.

Ultimately, we can’t say the IUDs caused the breast cancer – just that there’s an “association” or “link”.

Read more:
Clearing up confusion between correlation and causation

How big are the risks?

There are two different ways researchers express risk: “relative” and “absolute” risks. Here, the “relative” risk increase was about 30% for women using the IUDs for up to five years, 40% after 5–10 years, and 80% after 10–15 years of use.

These sound like massive risks. But though these statistics compare the risk of breast cancer in IUD users to the risk in non-users, they do not tell us the proportion of women who will get breast cancer. For that, we need to look at “absolute” risk increases.

These are much smaller. For every 10,000 women, this study suggests we might see an extra 14 cases of breast cancer after up to five years of use, 29 cases after 5–10 years use, and 71 cases after 10–15 years use. In “absolute” terms – as a proportion of all the IUD users – all of these risk increases are comfortably under 1%.

Reporting the dramatic relative risks, and not the much smaller absolute risks, is a common flaw in stories about health risk, and goes against science reporting recommendations.

What does other research say?

There are other studies on this topic, including a much larger recent study from Sweden based on data from more than half a million users of hormonal IUDs.

This suggested only a 13% relative risk increase in breast cancer – much smaller than the risk increases in the Danish study. This would mean an additional 1.46 cases of breast cancer for every 10,000 women per year.

This is in keeping with a recent large review of studies on this topic, which also found a much smaller risk than the new Danish paper.

The Swedish study also looked at other cancers. The results suggested a decreased risk of cancers of the cervix, ovaries and endometrium (womb lining). This mixed picture of some cancer risk and some cancer protection is also seen for traditional contraceptive pills.

And of course, all contraception protects women from the risks of pregnancy.

What does it mean for me?

The link between hormonal IUDs and breast cancer is probably very small, and might be a statistical illusion rather than a real thing.

Even if it’s a real risk, it may be offset by protection against other cancers.

And it may be dwarfed by other risks for breast cancer, such as high body weight, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and smoking. Online resources can help you visualise these risks.

Hormonal IUDs aren’t the right contraceptive choice for every woman. However, they deserve to stay high up on the menu of options.

Brett Montgomery is a GP who works academically and clinically. In his clinical work he sometimes discusses contraception with patients, including IUDs, but he does not insert IUDs himself. He has no commercial relationship with any IUD manufacturer.

– ref. Do IUDs cause breast cancer? Here’s what the evidence says – https://theconversation.com/do-iuds-cause-breast-cancer-heres-what-the-evidence-says-241663

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Thompson, Lecturer, Australian Catholic University

So, on we go
His welfare is of my concern
No burden is he to bear
We’ll get there
For I know
He would not encumber me
He ain’t heavy, he’s my brother
– He Ain’t Heavy, He’s My Brother by The Hollies

Writer–Director David Vincent Smith’s reference to The Hollies’ 1969 hit as the title for his new film is not without irony.

Max (Sam Corlett) – drug-dependent and out of control – is clearly a crushing weight on his sister Jade (Leila George) and mother Bev (Greta Scacchi).

The opening scene of this compelling new Australian production throws us right into the chaos he visits upon them. The desperate, violent, off-camera shouts of abuse from Max as his sister sneaks past concerned neighbours and into their mother’s house are obviously nothing new.

Bev, seated at the kitchen table, shows none of the anxiety we see in Jade. Perhaps she’s beyond reacting to Max’s outbursts. Perhaps she looks past the ugly side of her son through eyes that see only with a mother’s love.

Jade, however, is at the end of her tether. Everything she’s tried has failed. She’s left with just one last desperate measure.

This desperate measure didn’t come to David Vincent Smith as a narrative conceit. It was much closer to home.

One night, Smith got a call from his mother who told him his own drug-addicted brother was outside their home. As he explains in the film’s press kit:

I could hear smashing windows in the background as he tried to claw his way inside. I was done. There had been many years of violence, emergency rooms and mental trauma […] my own life was suffering as a result […] what could I do? I had an idea – I could kidnap him. Take him out to the desert, throw away the car keys and resolve this once and for all.

Smith didn’t pursue that extreme thought in real life. Instead, it found its way onto the screen, first as a short “proof of concept” film – I’m Not Hurting You, which played at the 2019 Sydney Film Festival – and then as He Ain’t Heavy, his first feature film.

The kidnapping and withdrawal

Jade does indeed kidnap her brother. She sedates him and brings him to their dead grandparents’ home in the country, which Jade and Bev have been packing up in preparation to for its sale.

Here, we see Jade’s methodical preparation of the room where she will incarcerate Max, the food she will feed him, the posters and pamphlets that inform her how to manage a drug addict’s withdrawal.

The choice of the grandparents’ home is significant for our understanding of this fractured family. Here we find evidence that things weren’t always like this.

We see old photo albums of happier times, toys and games that are now just reminders of fun family visits, a guitar that was once part of Max’s promising singing career, the nearby waterhole where lazy days were spent, and pencil marks on the door jamb recording the siblings’ growth.

Perhaps the resonance of their better days will be as powerful as the enforced withdrawal in bringing Max back. But, of course, Jade’s best-laid plans don’t go as she might have hoped.

In many ways, Max’s drug addiction is what Alfred Hitchcock would have called a McGuffin – the story element you think the film is about, when in fact the film is about something else entirely.

In this case, that something else is love: the love Jade feels for her brother that leads to this extreme action, the love Bev feels for her son that makes her vulnerable to his unpredictable and violent behaviour, and the absence of love Max feels for himself – a void that sucks him into a self-destructive spiral.

He Ain’t Heavy is essentially a three-handed chamber piece that delivers a triumvirate of distinctive, grounded and well-delineated performances, each one serving a sharply written screenplay imbued with an authenticity that reflects Smith’s lived experience.

A powerful portrait of familial love

Without giving any spoilers, there are some narrative conveniences along the way that might detract from a lesser film. In this case, however, they are easy to forgive, in favour of the powerful viewing experience they help deliver.

If only for the curiosity factor, it’s worth noting Leila George is also Greta Scacchi’s real-life daughter (her father is Vincent D’Onofrio). This obviously doesn’t hurt when it comes to casting for family resemblance. But this tidbit of trivia is quickly forgotten in the moments of each of their finely crafted, absorbing performances.

In Smith’s earlier short film version, we see a plaque on the grandparents’ kitchen wall with the following aphorism:

RECIPE FOR LIFE – pinch of persistence, dash of kindness, spoonful of laughter, heap of love.

This is a story about a family that has exhausted its persistence, and for whom laughter is something of the past. But Jade’s extreme action is really an act of kindness. Both she and Bev, in their own ways, are driven by that heap of love.

He Ain’t Heavy is a film that deserves the same heap of love from its audience.

He Ain’t Heavy is in select cinemas from October 17.

Chris Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A sister’s last hope to save her brother from addiction – David Vincent Smith’s He Ain’t Heavy is a triumphant debut – https://theconversation.com/a-sisters-last-hope-to-save-her-brother-from-addiction-david-vincent-smiths-he-aint-heavy-is-a-triumphant-debut-237764

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Williams, Associate Professor, Griffith University, Griffith University

It’s long been assumed the Queensland election of October 26 – to elect the state’s 58th (and second fixed, four-year) parliament – would be a tough ask for a tired-looking Labor government seeking a rare fourth term.

Having won the 2020 COVID-19 election with primary and two-party-preferred swings to it – and with a net gain in seats – Labor was always likely to suffer a major correction in 2024.

But few then could have anticipated just how large that correction would be. A Freshwater Strategy poll, the most recently released, has pegged Labor’s primary vote at just 30% (down 9.6 points from 2020). The Liberal-National Party (LNP) opposition is on 43% (up 7.1), the Greens (poised to seize between two and five seats in inner Brisbane) on 12% (up 2.5), Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party (PHON) on 8% (up 0.9) and others on 7% (up 1.3).

Labor, with just 44% of the two-party-preferred (2PP) vote, trails the LNP, on 56%, by 12 points. This represents a 9.2% swing since 2020. It would see Labor lose 22 seats (17 in the regions and five in Greater Brisbane) to the LNP, and at least two more in inner Brisbane to the Greens.

The 93-seat Queensland parliament would then be home to just 27 Labor MPs. The LNP would easily form government with 57 seats. The Greens and Katter’s Australian Party would each have four, and there would be one independent. For the first time in a decade, this election might see PHON with no representation.

So what went wrong for Labor?

Having been largely untroubled by the moderate and softly spoken LNP leader David Crisafulli throughout 2021, Labor suffered the first of a series of crises in early 2022 when integrity questions were asked of a Palaszczuk government accused of being too close to lobbyists and trade unions.

The LNP then launched a personal assault on the then premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk. She was accused of being a “part-time” and “red carpet” premier more interested in attending gala events than managing Queensland. In a state where the political culture esteems strong leaders but resents pampered “elites”, the LNP attacks were astonishingly successful.

By 2023, cost-of-living and youth crime crises only further burdened a premier hampered by hospital ramping and a seemingly shambolic rollout of Olympic Games infrastructure. By December 2023, a Resolve Strategic poll had found Palaszczuk – whose “next-door-neighbour” humility was once Labor’s best asset – trailing Crisafulli as preferred premier, 34 to 39%. Worse, a YouGov poll found Palaszczuk suffered a net approval rating of minus 20. Crisafulli enjoyed a plus-11-point position.

It was therefore inevitable the then deputy premier, Steven Miles – a PhD-qualified trade unionist from the Left now presenting as humble hubby and “daggy dad” – should topple (with support from Left-aligned unions) Palaszczuk last December.

While Miles’s honeymoon allowed Labor to briefly reset its fortunes – and, according to a UComms poll, attract 50% of the two-party preferred vote – the polls since February have been consistent in their forecast of a looming Labor decimation.

Despite this, nobody could accuse Miles or his government of giving up the ghost. Despite conceding an LNP victory was the “most likely” outcome, Miles has thrown everything into his bid for re-election. His promises include 50 cent public transport fares as part of a generous state budget (now matched by the LNP), a crackdown on youth crime, ambitious carbon emission and clean energy targets, state-owned electricity retailers and petrol stations, and even free lunches for all state primary school children.

By contrast, the LNP – enjoying a dream run since early 2022 and now campaigning heavily on youth crime and health – has met its first hurdles in recent weeks.

First, many, including conservative news media, are demanding Crisafulli provide much more policy detail. After long-trumpeting an “adult crime, adult time” slogan, for example, the LNP has only recently released vague details of an early intervention program to address youth crime.

Second – and potentially far more damaging – is the hand grenade Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) leader Robbie Katter lobbed at the LNP’s feet last week. Some time during the next parliament, Katter says, KAP will introduce a private member’s bill to repeal Labor’s popular 2018 reforms that removed abortion from the state’s Criminal Code.

While Crisafulli has ruled out any change to abortion law, there are fears conservative LNP MPs, if granted a “conscience vote”, could support Katter’s bill and recriminalise abortion. While such a move would hardly thwart LNP gains in the regions, it could prevent Crisafulli from making the necessary inroads into more progressive Brisbane seats.

While an LNP state victory is all but certain, federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton can take little comfort from a local Labor loss. In short, Queensland isn’t Australia, and Australia isn’t Queensland. Labor, holding just four of the state’s 30 federal seats north of the Tweed, has little to lose. Even a 10-point swing to the state LNP in Queensland means little in terms of the 6.3% swing Dutton needs nationally to form majority government next May.

Facing certain defeat, Labor’s strategy is now to “save the furniture” in Greater Brisbane, including its seat of Waterford, held by high-profile Health Minister Shannon Fentiman, who could easily become Labor’s next leader. If Labor holds much of Brisbane, a relatively inexperienced LNP frontbench still burdened by the 2032 Olympics, the cost of living and youth crime will likely find its first term hard going.

Another single-term LNP government, like Campbell Newman’s between 2012 and 2015, is therefore hardly out of the question.

Paul Williams is an associate of the T. J. Ryan Foundation.

– ref. LNP is set for an easy win in Queensland, but its first term may pose a much greater challenge – https://theconversation.com/lnp-is-set-for-an-easy-win-in-queensland-but-its-first-term-may-pose-a-much-greater-challenge-241009

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellow, researching Greco-Roman antiquity, The University of Melbourne

Today the perilous state of the environment is often in the news. Many stories describe how Earth is being damaged by human beings and discuss ways to prevent this.

These concerns are not new. Millennia ago, people in ancient Greece and Rome already knew humans were damaging the natural world. Literature from these ancient times contains many references to the environment and the harms it suffers.

Many of these insights ring true today. Polluting the soil we farm, air we breathe and water we drink has clear repercussions. We can only degrade the environment for so long before it will come back to haunt us.

So let’s explore what the ancient Greeks and Romans can teach us about nature and our place in the world.

An agent of destruction

The ancient Roman writer Pliny the Elder, who lived in the first century AD, was concerned about the way human beings were abusing Earth. In his work titled Natural History, he wrote:

We taint the rivers and the elements of nature, and the air itself, which is the main support of life, we turn into a medium for the destruction of life.

He thought of the planet as something humanity ought to protect rather than harm, because we owe our existence to mother Earth:

It is my pleasant duty first of all to champion Earth’s cause and to support her as the parent of all things.

Two millennia later, Pliny’s words seem directly relevant to us.

In the modern world, concerns about the health of the environment have become one of the hottest political topics.

For example, a survey last year of almost 20,000 young people in Australia showed 44% think the environment is the most important issue of our time.

A growing understanding

Roman writers noted their soldiers eventually poisoned the water and the air around their camps. The military writer Flavius Renatus Vegetius, who lived around the fourth and fifth centuries AD, observed:

if a numerous army continues long in one place in the summer or in the autumn, the waters become corrupt, and the air infected, from whence proceed malignant and fatal distempers, which nothing but frequent change of encampments can prevent.

Roman writers also had a lot to say about the pollution of the river Tiber, which runs through Rome.

The biographer Suetonius, who was born around 70AD, tells us the river had been “filled with rubbish and narrowed by jutting buildings” before emperor Augustus (63BC-14AD) took action to clean it up.

Bad policies had polluted the river’s waters. For example, the emperor Nero (37–68AD) dumped huge amounts of rotten grain into the river.

The Roman poet Juvenal (of the first and second centuries AD) referred to the Tiber as a “gushing sewer”. And the physician Galen (129–216AD) said the Tiber was so polluted that fish caught there were not safe to eat.

Measures to protect the environment

The Greeks and Romans introduced various measures to prevent or reduce environmental harm.

In 420BC, for example, the Athenians introduced a law to protect the river Ilissus:

It is forbidden to soak the coats [of animals] in the Ilissus above the sanctuary of Heracles and to tan them. It is forbidden to throw the residue of the laundering into the river.

Modern researchers think this measure might have helped the Ilissus stay clean. That’s because authors writing in the fourth century BC (after the law was introduced) describe the Ilissus as a pure and beautiful river.

Other measures to reduce pollution included banning public defecation and urination. Bans on washing clothes or throwing rubbish into rivers were also common. But it’s unlikely the public adhered to these restrictions all the time.

Some rulers also tried to do public works such as building sewers and aqueducts to clean up pollution.

For example, the emperor Nerva, who ruled 96–98AD, undertook a series of construction projects to make Rome cleaner and healthier.

Sextus Julius Frontinus (35–103AD), manager of Rome’s aqueducts, tells us that thanks to Nerva:

the appearance of the city is clean and altered; the air is purer; and the causes of the unwholesome atmosphere, which gave the air of the city so bad a name in former times, are now removed.

Damaging the environment harms our health

Sometime in the late first or early second century AD, the Roman aristocrat and lawyer Pliny the Younger (61/62–112AD) wrote a letter to the emperor Trajan, who ruled 98–117AD. He complained about a public health issue in the city of Amastris, in modern Turkey:

Among the chief features of Amastris, Sir, is a long street of great beauty. Throughout the length of this, however, there runs what is called a stream, but is in fact a filthy sewer, a disgusting eyesore which gives off a noxious stench. The health and appearance alike of the city will benefit if it is covered in, and with your permission this shall be done.

The emperor replied that he was happy for this to be done:

There is every reason, my dear Pliny, to cover the water which you say flows through the city of Amastris, if it is a danger to health while it remains uncovered.

This story shows the ancients were aware that the health of the land, air and water is intertwined with human health. So when the environment is in an unhealthy state, this is also damaging for our health and wellbeing.

The modern world can learn from antiquity

The message from the ancient Greeks and Romans is as true today for us as it was for them. As humanity grapples with multiple environmental crises, it’s worth reflecting on this age-old knowledge.

The bottom line is, keeping the planet in a healthy state is good not just for the environment, but also for ourselves.

In a modern world where stories about pollution and related environmental problems frequently appear in the news, this message of the ancients is well worth remembering.

Konstantine Panegyres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘The waters become corrupt, the air infected’: here’s how Ancient Greeks and Romans grappled with environmental damage – https://theconversation.com/the-waters-become-corrupt-the-air-infected-heres-how-ancient-greeks-and-romans-grappled-with-environmental-damage-236680

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Peter Dutton has been receiving a good many political breaks recently – Anthony Albanese’s new house is the latest icing on the cake. Although the Coalition is not expected to win next year’s election, presently it looks placed to do well.

So, as they prepare their campaign, what issue would Liberal strategists be most afraid of? My bet would be the looming battle over industrial relations. This could be more dangerous for Dutton than his risky gamble to promote nuclear energy.

With the election set to be fought largely around the cost of living, the government will reach for workplace issues as a potential lifeline. Industrial relations is made for a ferocious Labor scare campaign that the Coalition will find extremely difficult to counter.

As the opposition keeps saying, the Albanese government has delivered extensively to the union movement’s demands, especially on behalf of low-paid workers.

It has supported wage rises and will itself pay for some (notably for child care staff).

It has legislated to protect the rights of casuals, provide minimum standards for gig workers, and stop employers using labour hire arrangements to undercut wages.

Wage theft has been outlawed; domestic violence leave granted; the “right to disconnect” introduced.

Most importantly, multi-employer bargaining – hated by parts of business – has been facilitated, and this is sure to spread in coming years.

You don’t need much of a head for political tactics to devise Labor’s campaign.

It would go something like this: “The Albanese government has advocated for higher wages and given you all these benefits and protections, that the Liberals will strip back. Remember the Howard government’s WorkChoices.”

This could be potent among the lower-to-middle income workers in the outer suburbs, to whom Dutton is pitching.

As in most areas, the opposition says it will release its industrial relations policy closer to the election.

So far, it has promised to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission (the “cop on the beat”) and the Registered Organisations Commission (a regulatory body governing unions and employer organisations).

It has also said it will repeal the right to disconnect, review the labour hire law, change the definition of casual employment and reduce the regulatory burden on small business.

The Coalition is under pressure from business to agree to a wish list to tilt the playing field back towards employers. For instance this week, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry called for the definition of small businesses to be expanded, so that more firms would benefit from having fewer workplace burdens imposed on them.

The opposition must decide how many of the Labor changes it will pledge to roll back or alter. At the same time, it will have to try to reassure workers it doesn’t have a hidden agenda. Both will be difficult.

On the roll back, employers will be pressing for the Coalition to go further than is politically wise. There are senior voices within the Coalition urging caution. But whatever Dutton says he won’t do is likely to be met with scepticism by a distrustful electorate.

Regardless of the policy it announces, there’ll be no way the Coalition can avoid becoming a big target on industrial relations.

Moreover, its argument that the government’s IR changes are bad for the economy will be hard to prosecute because it will be some time before their full impact can be judged. The government itself has an independent review of its initial measures, due to report in January. That will allow it to either claim everything is hunky dory, or offer some fine-tuning.

Much of the nitty-gritty of the IR contest will be carried by Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt and opposition spokeswoman Michaelia Cash.

Watt, from the left, who recently took over the portfolio from Tony Burke, is an articulate straight-talker. Formerly agriculture minister, he has been one of Albanese’s best-performing ministers.

Cash, who like Watt is in the Senate, has plenty of experience: she was industrial relations minister in the Morrison government. But she often comes across as shrill and reliant on slogans. In this election, the easy IR slogans will be on the government’s side. Cash is also media shy – she hates not knowing what’s coming.

On the ABC on Monday, Watt rehearsed the government’s lines. Declaring IR “a key defining topic and contrast between the two major parties of government”, he said: “What this comes down to is, at a time when Australians are already doing it tough, Peter Dutton and the Coalition will make things harder for Australians. It’s the worst possible time to be cutting pay and conditions.”

While the government is holding the upper hand on the politics of IR, the issue is not without  considerable problems for industrial and political Labor.

Installing an administrator into the crime-riddled CFMEU was a correct and inevitable step. But the action has triggered a reaction among some militants in the union movement who are now splitting from the ACTU.

This week a group from the National Building Industry Group of unions met to discuss tactics.

The rebels, who plan to hold a “Trade Unions for Democracy Summit” in December and are threatening to fund independent candidates (which in practice probably means Greens), hit out at both the government and the ACTU.

“The forced administration [of the CFMEU] driven by Albanese, Murray Watt, and Tony Burke, and supported by the ACTU, has opened the door for a sustained attack on construction workers,” they said in a statement.

The boss of the Electrical Trades Union, Michael Wright,  told The Australian: “There is a deep rupture  across the labour movement.”  He said the consequences were likely to be “far reaching”.

While the rebels are only a sliver of the wider union movement, with the ACTU retaining overwhelming support, the split is disruptive and difficult to handle both within the movement and for the Labor party. The latter will be some millions of dollars short for its campaign, and the Greens’ coffers are likely to be boosted.

Cleaning up the CFMEU – and the construction industry more generally – was not on the government’s “to do” list when it came to power. It was a reaction to revelations in the Nine media of the appalling conduct within this rogue union.

But the government will seek to turn it to its advantage in its IR campaigning, using it as an example of being willing to stand up to thuggery.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: whatever his policy, Peter Dutton will be a big target on workplace relations – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-whatever-his-policy-peter-dutton-will-be-a-big-target-on-workplace-relations-241568

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Brown, Research Fellow in Climate Science, The University of Melbourne

Clusters of severe thunderstorms are expected to strike Australia’s southern regions over Thursday and Friday.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued severe weather warnings and forecasts related to these unusually widespread stormy conditions as they move through South Australia today and into Victoria.

Some areas have already experienced golf ball-sized hail and intense winds.

While we might not always think of thunderstorms as a threat, severe storms can be surprisingly damaging. The enormous Sydney thunderstorm of 1999 dropped an estimated 500,000 tonnes of hail, causing widespread damage to cars and roofs. At the time, it was the most expensive natural disaster on record, overtaken only by the unprecedented 2022 floods across eastern Australia – which were themselves partly caused by severe thunderstorms in addition to other weather systems.

When severe thunderstorms bring torrential rain, they can often trigger flash flooding. This is because extreme rain from thunderstorms usually falls over a relatively short time – less than an hour or two in many cases. Lightning can also pose a threat.

In recent years, severe thunderstorms have also shown they can damage the power grid. In 2016, huge rotating supercell storms brought intense winds and at least seven tornadoes to South Australia, toppling transmission towers and causing a statewide blackout. Smaller thunderstorms caused major outages in Victoria in February this year after taking down six towers.

But what makes a thunderstorm “severe”?

The ingredients for a storm

What triggers thunderstorms? Climate scientists and meteorologists often talk about the ingredients necessary for thunderstorms.

To make a normal thunderstorm, you need to have a lot of moisture in the air. Then you need vertical instability in the atmosphere, meaning relatively warm moist air near the surface and very cold air above. You also need a mechanism to lift warmer surface air up to a level where the atmospheric instability can be released.

For a severe thunderstorm, you need all those ingredients and usually one more: vertical wind shear. This means that wind speeds and direction differ with height. For example, you might have strong northerly winds down low, and strong southerly winds up higher.

Vertical wind shear can make a run-of-the-mill thunderstorm much more intense, in a range of ways. For instance, wind shear can help warm updrafts stay separate from cold downdrafts and rainfall, which can help make the storm last longer.

If a thunderstorm has large hail, damaging wind gusts or could trigger a tornado or flash flooding, this makes it a severe thunderstorm, according to Bureau of Meteorology classification.

You might have also heard of supercell storms. These are convective thunderstorms, characterised by strong, rotating updrafts that last for a long time.

Forecasters can predict the potential for severe thunderstorms several days out by looking for moisture-laden air and winds. But predicting exactly where and when they might pop up is extremely challenging.

What’s unusual about these storms?

The storms this week are unusually widespread, with thunderstorms possible from Kalbarri in central Western Australia down through Esperance, across into South Australia, into Victoria and up through New South Wales and southern Queensland.

These conditions are due to a large-scale low pressure system moving west to east.

Ahead of the arrival of this low pressure system, winds from the north are bringing down moisture and instability and priming the system for thunderstorms. When air near the low pressure system begins to rise, energy from the warm, moisture-laden and unstable air can be released. This includes energy release due to condensation of water vapour. These rising air currents can travel several kilometres up into the atmosphere, even reaching the top of the troposphere, 10–15km up.

Severe thunderstorms in southern Australia are more likely in spring and summer. That’s because there’s plenty of moisture available from the tropics and the warm oceans around Australia, while low pressure systems and cold fronts can still emerge from the cold oceans to our south.

Thunderstorms, tornadoes and fire

Severe thunderstorms can also pack a hidden punch. They can trigger tornadoes in extreme cases.

In August, severe thunderstorms hit northern Victoria and triggered a tornado, a destructive whirling column of air that damaged houses and farms in the high country.

This surprised many people. It’s generally known that Australia has tropical cyclones in the north, intense tropical storms coming in off the sea, but not as well known to have tornadoes.

In fact, Australia does get tornadoes – an estimated 30–80 each year. In 2013, a total of 69 known tornadoes caused almost 150 injuries. Many of these tornadoes spin out of supercells.

In Australia’s hotter months, many fires burn around the country. Thunderstorms can make fires worse by bringing strong, warm northerly winds, often with rapid variations in speed and direction that can increase the rate of spread of a fire.

Firefighters and first responders dread these conditions. Australia’s most deadly bushfire was Black Saturday in 2009, which killed 173 people. One reason it was so dangerous was its suddenness. Intense northerly winds brought down powerlines and started fires, which were quickly whipped into intense firestorms, including thunderstorms generated in the fire plumes.

Will climate change bring more severe storms?

As the world heats up, more water is evaporating off warm sea surfaces and hanging in the air as water vapour. This means there’s more of this ingredient necessary to fuel severe thunderstorms and more intense rain from thunderstorms.

What we don’t know for certain yet is how prevailing air currents over Australia are changing. This could shift moisture to different regions, or affect other thunderstorm ingredients like vertical wind shear, instability, and lifting mechanisms. If circulation patterns do change, we could see severe storms develop in new areas, or different times of the year.

Read more:
We can’t say yet if grid-breaking thunderstorms are getting worse – but we shouldn’t wait to find out

Andrew Brown receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather.

Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne, including through the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the Melbourne Energy Institute.

– ref. Severe thunderstorms are sweeping through southern Australia. But what makes a thunderstorm ‘severe’? – https://theconversation.com/severe-thunderstorms-are-sweeping-through-southern-australia-but-what-makes-a-thunderstorm-severe-241555

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Giuffre, Senior Lecturer in Communication, University of Technology Sydney

Former One Direction band member and solo artist Liam Payne has been found dead outside a hotel in Buenos Aires, media reports have confirmed. Payne was just 31 years old – a loved friend and father.

Alongside his former One Direction band mates Niall Horan, Harry Styles, Louis Tomlinson and Zayn Malik, Payne had a huge influence on popular culture in his home country of the United Kingdom and internationally.

The group formed in 2010 on the British talent show X Factor and stayed together for about five years before officially splitting in 2016. Throughout this time, Payne remained a valuable member of the band and a clear talent in his own right.

After the split (and a brief hiatus from music-making), Payne continued to release music periodically as both a songwriter and collaborator. He most recently released the single Teardrops in March, ahead of an anticipated second solo album.

News of Payne’s death has led to an outpouring of tributes. Like many young people thrust into stardom seemingly overnight, his life wasn’t without controversy. But the response to his death by fans and industry colleagues alike is proof of the impact he had.

The making of a pop supergroup

While One Direction may have not been together for as long as other globally successful acts, their influence far exceeded bands that have been together for decades. They released five studio records – and broke many more, including six Guinness World Records. And even though they didn’t make it to their 10th anniversary together, they had still sold some 70 million records by 2020.

In the years since the split, fans continued to gather, listen and celebrate – with the most recent anniversary (14 years) seeing fan-led events held in Australia and the rest of the world.

It’s easy to dismiss pop music and its influence, especially in the face of what feel like increasingly dire global circumstances. But pop, like many other forms of entertainment, provides a practical way for people to gain momentary pleasure and comfort.

It also provides connection with others – and relief from politics and other daily pressures. For example, one of One Direction’s biggest hits, That’s What Makes You Beautiful, sought to empower young people who might otherwise be overwhelmed by negative messaging.

Within a year of their debut, the group was met with massive crowds of fans almost everywhere they want.

The impact on fans when their idol dies

The loss of life, especially a young person’s life, is always a tragedy.

For some young fans, this might be the first person they “know” who has died. While it may not be the same as losing a family member or close friend, the feeling of loss is significant. Young fans will need support. And in 2024, many will find this support through social platforms and online forums.

I still remember the impact the deaths of stars such as Kurt Cobain and Jeff Buckley had on people like me who were teenagers in the 1990s. These were artists I admired and listened to – and whose art I relied on during times of pleasure and pain.

A similar pang was felt when artists such as George Michael, Aretha Franklin and David Bowie died, albeit later in my life and theirs.

The experience of losing a music idol is in many ways a universal one. People whose art we attach to our own life experiences become inseparable from our lives. And when they die, it can feel like those experiences are over too.

After news of Payne’s death broke, hundreds of fans took to the streets of Palermo in Buenos Aires, where Payne had been visiting. They held a vigil, cried and consoled one another in front of the Casa Sur hotel where Payne had been staying.

One fan, 25-year-old Yamila Zacarias, probably spoke for many when she said:

He meant a lot to me because the band came into my life at this time when you’re trying to be a part of something, and being a One Direction fan became that something for me.

Lifelong fandom and memories

There’s a stereotype of “fans” as hordes of screaming girls, which can really take away from the depth of fandom.

Anyone at any stage of life can be a fan of just about anything. And the best thing about fandom is that it can, and often does, allow lots of different types of people an outlet for connection throughout their lives.

The death of US actress Betty White in 2021, as sad as it was, brought people across generations and walks of life together. And not just those who knew her personally, but those who had connected with each other through their love of her work. It reminded me of my own family, including my Nan and Dad, now gone, and the laughs we’d share as we watched her.

As more details and tributes to Payne’s life and death emerge, the fans will have each other to lean on. If you yourself know someone who is a fan of Payne or One Direction, even reaching out to just acknowledge that person’s grief and experience is important. It says to them, “what you love is valid, and so are you”.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Liz Giuffre does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Loss of an idol: response to Liam Payne’s death highlights the power of childhood and music – https://theconversation.com/loss-of-an-idol-response-to-liam-paynes-death-highlights-the-power-of-childhood-and-music-241554

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicky Morrison, Professor of Planning and Director of Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University

Essential workers such as teachers, health workers and community safety staff play a vital role in ensuring our society works well. Yet soaring housing costs in cities like Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are squeezing essential workers out of the communities they serve.

The issue is reaching crisis point across Australia. Anglicare Australia yesterday released a special edition of its Rental Affordability Snapshot focused on essential workers in full-time work. Housing costs under 30% of household income are considered affordable. In a survey of 45,115 rental listings, it found:

• 3.7% were affordable for a teacher
• 2.2% were affordable for an ambulance worker
• 1.5% were affordable for an aged care worker
• 1.4% were affordable for a nurse
• 0.9% were affordable for an early childhood educator
• 0.8% were affordable for a hospitality worker.

This trend is creating unsustainable patterns of urban sprawl and long commutes. It erodes workers’ quality of life. It also undermines public service delivery by making it harder to recruit and retain these workers in high-cost areas.

International experience, particularly in the UK where I have advised on similar policies, shows there are solutions to this crisis. These global lessons fall into four categories.

1. Define essential worker housing

Essential worker housing typically targets front-line public sector workers on low to middle incomes. Yet eligibility should extend to support roles, such as ambulance drivers, porters and medical receptionists, who play a vital part in enabling front-line services. They too struggle to find affordable housing near their workplaces.

Conditions of eligibility should also include a cap on household earnings.

The UK experience highlights the importance of providing both rental and ownership options. To keep key worker housing affordable and accessible over time, both types need to be priced appropriately.

Australian cities could adopt similar approaches, by requiring housing developers and community housing providers to allocate affordable housing for essential workers. Prices would be below market rates for both rentals and home ownership for the long term, and not revert to market rates. This ensures stability for public service workers.

2. Financial innovations focused on long-term affordability

Innovative financial models, such as shared equity schemes, have succeeded in the UK. These allow workers to gradually buy into their homes, creating long-term stability.

Shared equity involves the government or another investor covering some of the cost of buying the home in exchange for an equivalent share in the property. Australia could explore similar schemes to provide immediate relief while ensuring sustained affordability for future essential workers.

This approach could build on the Commonwealth’s proposed Help to Buy scheme, currently before the Senate, and existing state and territory shared equity programs. These may need refinement to better serve essential workers by, for example, adjusting income thresholds and eligibility criteria to ensure they qualify. These schemes also need to expand to cover all urban areas where housing affordability is most strained.

3. Leverage planning systems

Countries like the UK have leveraged their planning systems to deliver affordable housing for key workers. In England, planning authorities use mechanisms such as Section 106 agreements to ensure a portion of new developments is reserved for key worker housing as a condition of planning approval.

Australian states could adapt this model, setting targets within existing planning frameworks. For example, they could use Voluntary Planning Agreements to prioritise essential worker housing.

Yet essential worker housing should not displace housing for other people in urgent need. They include people who are homeless, low-income families, people with disabilities, the elderly, those at risk of domestic violence, veterans and youth leaving foster care.

4. Use public land for housing development

The use of surplus public land for essential worker housing has proven successful in several cities, including London, Amsterdam and San Francisco.

Earmarking land owned by the public sector, such as hospital or education sites, is a strategic way to deliver affordable housing near key public sector employers. It also allows staff to travel to work nearby using sustainable transport instead of cars.

Affordable housing has profound benefits

Without action, essential workers are likely to be forced into lower-quality, high-cost housing, shared accommodation, or long commutes from more affordable areas. Over time, these patterns of job-housing imbalances and urban sprawl are unsustainable. These issues are the focus of my current research, particularly in Western Sydney.

The New South Wales government has set up a parliamentary select committee to inquire into options for essential worker housing. It’s bringing much-needed attention to the housing crisis affecting key public sector roles.

Tackling these issues through targeted housing solutions has many benefits. It can help create more sustainable communities, reduce recruitment and retention difficulties for employers and ease the strain on infrastructure and services.

The key takeaway from the UK and other countries is the importance of long-term, sustainable solutions that do not shift the focus away from those most in need of housing. Australia has the opportunity to strike this balance. We need to ensure essential workers can afford to live near their workplaces while not sidelining everyone else in need of affordable housing.

Nicky Morrison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How can Australia make housing affordable for essential workers? Here are 4 key lessons from overseas – https://theconversation.com/how-can-australia-make-housing-affordable-for-essential-workers-here-are-4-key-lessons-from-overseas-239934

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Giuffre, Senior Lecturer in Communication, University of Technology Sydney

Former One Direction band member and solo artist Liam Payne has been found dead outside a hotel in Buenos Aires, media reports have confirmed. Payne was just 31 years old – a loved friend and father.

Alongside his former One Direction band mates Niall Horan, Harry Styles, Louis Tomlinson and Zayn Malik, Payne had a huge influence on popular culture in his home country of the United Kingdom and internationally.

The group formed in 2010 on the British talent show X Factor and stayed together for about five years before officially splitting in 2016. Throughout this time, Payne remained a valuable member of the band and a clear talent in his own right.

After the split (and a brief hiatus from music-making), Payne continued to release music periodically as both a songwriter and collaborator. He most recently released the single Teardrops in March, ahead of an anticipated second solo album.

News of Payne’s death has led to an outpouring of tributes. Like many young people thrust into stardom seemingly overnight, his life wasn’t without controversy. But the response to his death by fans and industry colleagues alike is proof of the impact he had.

The making of a pop supergroup

While One Direction may have not been together for as long as other globally successful acts, their influence far exceeded bands that have been together for decades. They released five studio records – and broke many more, including six Guinness World Records. And even though they didn’t make it to their 10th anniversary together, they had still sold some 70 million records by 2020.

In the years since the split, fans continued to gather, listen and celebrate – with the most recent anniversary (14 years) seeing fan-led events held in Australia and the rest of the world.

It’s easy to dismiss pop music and its influence, especially in the face of what feel like increasingly dire global circumstances. But pop, like many other forms of entertainment, provides a practical way for people to gain momentary pleasure and comfort.

It also provides connection with others – and relief from politics and other daily pressures. For example, one of One Direction’s biggest hits, That’s What Makes You Beautiful, sought to empower young people who might otherwise be overwhelmed by negative messaging.

Within a year of their debut, the group was met with massive crowds of fans almost everywhere they want.

The impact on fans when their idol dies

The loss of life, especially a young person’s life, is always a tragedy.

For some young fans, this might be the first person they “know” who has died. While it may not be the same as losing a family member or close friend, the feeling of loss is significant. Young fans will need support. And in 2024, many will find this support through social platforms and online forums.

I still remember the impact the deaths of stars such as Kurt Cobain and Jeff Buckley had on people like me who were teenagers in the 1990s. These were artists I admired and listened to – and whose art I relied on during times of pleasure and pain.

A similar pang was felt when artists such as George Michael, Aretha Franklin and David Bowie died, albeit later in my life and theirs.

The experience of losing a music idol is in many ways a universal one. People whose art we attach to our own life experiences become inseparable from our lives. And when they die, it can feel like those experiences are over too.

After news of Payne’s death broke, hundreds of fans took to the streets of Palermo in Buenos Aires, where Payne had been visiting. They held a vigil, cried and consoled one another in front of the Casa Sur hotel where Payne had been staying.

One fan, 25-year-old Yamila Zacarias, probably spoke for many when she said:

He meant a lot to me because the band came into my life at this time when you’re trying to be a part of something, and being a One Direction fan became that something for me.

Lifelong fandom and memories

There’s a stereotype of “fans” as hordes of screaming girls, which can really take away from the depth of fandom.

Anyone at any stage of life can be a fan of just about anything. And the best thing about fandom is that it can, and often does, allow lots of different types of people an outlet for connection throughout their lives.

The death of US actress Betty White in 2021, as sad as it was, brought people across generations and walks of life together. And not just those who knew her personally, but those who had connected with each other through their love of her work. It reminded me of my own family, including my Nan and Dad, now gone, and the laughs we’d share as we watched her.

As more details and tributes to Payne’s life and death emerge, the fans will have each other to lean on. If you yourself know someone who is a fan of Payne or One Direction, even reaching out to just acknowledge that person’s grief and experience is important. It says to them, “what you love is valid, and so are you”.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Liz Giuffre does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Death of an idol: response to Liam Payne’s death highlights the power of childhood and music – https://theconversation.com/death-of-an-idol-response-to-liam-paynes-death-highlights-the-power-of-childhood-and-music-241554

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amanda Meyer, Senior Lecturer, Anatomy and Pathology, James Cook University

Do you really know what you look like on the inside? Most people do not, and usually it takes surgery or medical imaging to take a look while we are still alive.

A case study was published last week where researchers made the rare finding of a man with “triphallia”. Most people would say the man had three penises. But anatomists, like myself, who teach health professionals about the structure of the human body, prefer the term penes (plural of penis).

This finding emerged from the dissection of the body of a 78-year-old man who had donated his body to science. It is a case that has left many anatomists scratching their heads, and ignited discussions about typical human anatomy and anatomical variation.

I too have an extra organ – an extra spleen – plus other anatomical variations regarding two muscles. It is highly likely you might also have anatomical variations, and not necessarily know.

Back to this case

According to the latest study, only one penis was externally visible. But when his body was dissected, there were two extra, smaller penises inside the scrotum.

The main penis was 77mm long and 24mm wide, with the smaller ones about half the size. However, the images provided in the study don’t seem to match the written descriptions in all places. So the study does need clarification.

Intriguingly, researchers identified a single urethra – the hollow tube from the bladder that allows urine (and sperm from the testes) to leave the body. This urethra travelled from the bladder through part of one of the smaller penises and along the length of the main penis, leaving out the third penis entirely.

Was there a misunderstanding in identifying these anatomical structures? Could the second penis simply be a misidentified part of the main one? Is this actually a case of diphallia – two penises? In either case, the man’s anatomy was different to what you’d typically see in anatomy textbooks.

The study suggests all three penises contained erectile tissue capable of engorgement. But it remains unclear whether they worked independently or together. Unfortunately, the authors did not confirm structures by examining them under the microscope, or report tracing the nerves or blood vessels, to shed more light.

There was an earlier case in a baby

A separate case of someone with three penises, which was documented in 2020, involved a three-month-old infant.

In this instance, the main penis was in its typical position, but you could see the extra ones on the perineum (between the anus and the scrotum in males).

Neither of the extra penises had a urethra, making them incapable of functioning typically. Ultimately, these non-functional penises were safely removed.

Such cases are rare, with only these two examples reported in medical databases.

So how does this happen? The answer may lie in how embryos develop.

Early in development

The penis begins to develop early in the first trimester of a 40-week pregnancy, a time when a woman may not know she’s pregnant.

During this critical period, the embryo may be exposed to various influences. These include toxins passed through the bloodstream if the mother falls ill, takes certain drugs while pregnant or is exposed to certain chemicals. There are also genetic factors that shape how organs develop.

By the fifth week of pregnancy, cells migrate to the midline of the embryo, where they help form the precursor to the penis.

Problems in this migratory process, abnormalities in a developmental gene (called “sonic hedgehog”), or fluctuations in testosterone levels or receptors during early fetal development, could potentially lead to the formation of additional penises.

Humans are varied

While the appearance of triphallia may be startling, these rare cases highlight a broader point: our anatomy can vary significantly. Just as individuals differ in their external appearances, so too does our internal anatomy.

For example, there are anatomical variations in blood vessels, organs, muscles, nerves and even bones that may not be readily visible.

Indeed, incidental findings during my own medical examinations have found I have a supernumerary (or extra) spleen, called a splenunculus, an extra flexor digitorum longus muscle (in my leg), and I’m missing both palmaris longus muscles (in my forearms).

While my anatomical variations are internal, a common example of a visible external anatomical variation are extra nipples. These can be mistaken for moles and can also result from developmental issues in the early weeks of pregnancy.

Why is this important?

Cases like the man said to have three penises are important reminders of the complexities of human anatomy and the many factors that can influence our bodies from the very start of development.

Exploring these rare findings emphasises the importance of continued research in anatomy and embryology.

These findings also highlight the importance of a healthy lifestyle for people intending to fall pregnant and who are already. This is so growing embryos can have the best chance of developing typical anatomy.

Amanda Meyer is affiliated with the Australian and New Zealand Association of Clinical Anatomists, the American Association for Anatomy, and the Global Neuroanatomy Network.

– ref. A man lived to old age without knowing he may have had 3 penises – https://theconversation.com/a-man-lived-to-old-age-without-knowing-he-may-have-had-3-penises-241475

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Korte, Senior Lecturer, School of Computer Science, Queensland University of Technology

For Deaf people, train travel can be a gamble. On an average day, nothing goes wrong: they catch their train to their destination and carry on with their business.

But when something out of the ordinary happens, the situation can quickly get scary, because most updates are only delivered by audio announcements. A Deaf traveller may miss their train because it was moved to a different platform, or watch as their station whizzes by because the train isn’t stopping there today. They may also remain on a train carriage in an emergency after everyone else has evacuated, and have to be rescued by station staff.

Every single one of these examples has been drawn from the real life experiences of Deaf people in Sydney. But my colleagues and I are working with Sydney Trains and members of the Australian Deaf community to develop an advanced, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered signing avatar which can automatically translate audio announcements into Auslan.

Our work on the avatar also builds towards the next step: developing AI systems which can “understand” Auslan.

Journeys don’t always go to plan

Earlier this year, my colleagues and I ran a pilot study with three Deaf train travellers in Sydney. As well as the stories they shared about what can go wrong during train travel, we learned they use tried and tested strategies for making their journeys go smoothly.

Their strategies might be familiar to regular commuters. For example, they would plan their journeys with an app, arrive early and look for signage to let them know if anything had changed.

But they also said they felt they needed to stand near information screens to watch for updates, and ask station staff or other passengers for information when the situation had changed. They also reported being hypervigilant while on the train, watching to make sure they don’t miss their stop.

But these strategies didn’t always ensure Deaf travellers received important information, including about emergencies. For example, while usually helpful, station staff were sometimes too busy to assist.

The greatest frustration came in situations where other passengers weren’t willing or able to provide information, leaving our Deaf travellers to just “follow the crowd”. This often meant ending up in the wrong place.

Developing a signing avatar

Speech-to-text software might seem like an easy solution to some of these problems. But for many Deaf people, English is not their native language and Auslan can be processed far more easily and quickly.

Our Deaf travellers told us that, in a perfect world, they would want live interpreters. However, automatic, AI-powered translation using a signing avatar displayed on a platform or train screen which could identify key words in an audio announcement, generate a sentence with correct Auslan grammar, and stitch together the corresponding signs from our vocabulary library was appealing for a number of reasons.

First, it allows for real-time translation of announcements that use known vocabulary – which is relevant in the trains-and-stations context, where many announcements cover similar topics.

Second, an avatar and its signing can be customised to the needs of a given situation, such as using information about screen location to ensure the avatar signs in the right direction while pointing out exits or other platforms.

Third, multiple signers can contribute signs to an avatar’s vocabulary, which can then be smoothly stitched together to make a sentence.

And importantly, an avatar means no real person has to be the “face” of an organisation’s automatically generated announcements. This is particularly important because the Australian Deaf community is small and close knit, and if something goes wrong with the translation, nobody suffers any reputational damage.

From a technical point of view, an avatar also allows us to ensure a minimum quality threshold for signing. We’re using motion capture to make sure each sign in our vocabulary library is accurate, and movements are clear.

It also helps us avoid the “uncanny valley” – an effect where something human-like but subtly wrong is unsettling. We don’t want any of the many-fingered monstrosities you may have seen recently generated by AI.

AI for everyone

This work is one step in our broader aim of creating an AI system which can understand Auslan. This AI could be used to help Deaf and hearing station staff converse, or to create “chatbot booths” or app-based assistants that would allow Deaf people to get information on demand in Auslan about their train journeys or other daily tasks.

Sign languages and Deaf cultures around the world have nuances and complexities that hearing researchers and developers of AI may not be aware of. These nuances and complexities must be embedded in new technologies, and researchers and developers must take a language-first approach to AI data collection and design with – not just for – Deaf people.

Only then will AI meet Deaf people’s real needs: to ensure their safety and independence in every aspect of daily life.

Jessica Korte has received funding from Qvest Australia, a technology solutions partner to Sydney Trains.

– ref. For Deaf people, train travel can be a gamble. But an AI-powered Auslan avatar can help – https://theconversation.com/for-deaf-people-train-travel-can-be-a-gamble-but-an-ai-powered-auslan-avatar-can-help-241016

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephanie Wescott, Lecturer in Humanities and Social Sciences, Monash University

The Victorian government has announced new teaching resources to tackle the influence of “manosphere” figures, such as Andrew Tate, in the state’s schools.

This follows ongoing reports of disturbing events involving sexist abuse by students in both independent and government schools in Victoria and around the country.

But while this week’s announcement is a welcome and necessary step, we need a more comprehensive plan to eliminate gender-based violence in our schools.

What is the ‘manosphere’?

The “manosphere” is an overlapping collection of extreme men’s communities on social media that are anti-women and against women’s empowerment. This includes Tate, the “misogynist influencer” who is facing trial in Romania on charges of human trafficking and rape (which he denies).

Our recent research found women teachers are increasingly exposed to sexism, misogyny and sexual harassment as the result of boys’ exposure to “manfluencer” ideas and behaviours. These problems are further compounded by the infiltration of far-right sentiments into schools, which has been linked to far-right online forums.

At the same time, women teachers report they are not being supported by school leadership.

Read more:
We research online ‘misogynist radicalisation’. Here’s what parents of boys should know

What’s in the Victorian resources?

The new teaching resources were developed by education academics Helen Cahill and Debbie Ollis, in consultation with teachers, students and parents.

They aim to give students skills to counter the influence of “Tate-types”, and to navigate issues such as consent, sextortion, pornography and gender-based bullying.

They will be part of respectful relationships education, which is mandatory in Victorian government schools (following a recommendation of the 2015 Royal Commission into Family Violence).

Problems with respecful relationship education

There have been implementation issues with respectful relationships education.

A 2022 review (of which one of us, Naomi Pfitzner, was an author) found problems with the funding, quality of resources and training supplied to schools, and with schools’ levels of commitment

Previous research also suggests teachers may be hesitant to engage with controversial or tricky topics. There is a risk some issues are being left out of classroom discussions.

Crucially, respectful relationships is not mandatory in all Victorian schools — independent and faith-based schools in Victoria need to opt in.

In other Australian states and territories, respectful relationships education is not compulsory in any school system.

We need more information

Education departments around the country collect various forms of data about school life, such as learning and attendance. But we don’t have accurate national data on the prevalence of gender-based violence in schools.

Without the full picture of how widespread gender-based violence is in Australian schools, it is difficult to resource and design an appropriate response.

Gender-based violence in schools is inextricably connected to the endemic levels of violence against women in Australia.

We cannot separate a broader culture that enables gendered slurs, misogyny and gender inequity — known enablers of gender-based violence — from attitudes towards women and girls in schools.

What now?

Women have been raising the alarm about sexual harassment of female teachers for decades. But on top of already slow or inadequate responses, the problem has become more complex.

The proliferation of online misogynist content requires a new, tailored approach.

Our current project with Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety is examining how online misogyny in the manosphere influences young boys and men in Australia. We will then create resources to support teachers and help make schools safer for all young people.

It is shameful many girls’ first experience of gendered violence happens as students at school. And teachers deserve a safe workplace free from misogyny and sexism.

Stephanie Wescott receives funding from Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS).

Alexandra Phelan receives funding from Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS).

Naomi Pfitzner has received funding from the Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety, the Victorian and Queensland governments and the Australian government. She was an author of the review into Respectful Relationships Education in Australia mentioned in this article.

Sarah McCook receives funding from Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS).

Steven Roberts receives funding from Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS), the Australian government and the Australian Research Council. He is a Board Director at Respect Victoria, but this article is written wholly independently from that role.

– ref. Victorian students will get ‘anti-Tate’ lessons – but much more is needed to tackle gendered violence in schools – https://theconversation.com/victorian-students-will-get-anti-tate-lessons-but-much-more-is-needed-to-tackle-gendered-violence-in-schools-241473

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jenny Graves, Distinguished Professor of Genetics and Vice Chancellor’s Fellow, La Trobe University

We know that boys and girls are produced in much the same frequency. But how – and why – is this 1:1 ratio achieved?

A new paper searches huge human data sets for gene variants that throw the 1:1 sex ratio off balance, and test the biological and theoretical rules of sex ratio.

What produces the 1:1 sex ratio?

Early scientists credited divine providence with ensuring that “every male should have its female”.

Of course, we now know that sex chromosomes are the real determiners of sex. Females have two X chromosomes; males have a single X and a male-specific Y.

The Y carries a male-determining gene called SRY, which kickstarts the differentiation of a ridge of cells into a testis. The embryonic testis makes male hormones which direct the embryo to develop as a boy. Without SRY, an alternative pathway is activated that makes an ovary, and the embryo develops as a girl.

The 1:1 ratio results from the way the X and Y chromosomes are doled out in sperm and eggs. Our cells all have two sets of chromosomes that constitute our genome, one set from each parent. A special type of cell division makes sperm and eggs with just a single set of chromosomes, so that a fertilised egg once again has two sets (one set from the sperm and the other from the egg).

So sperm all get a single copy of each chromosome – and just one sex chromosome, either an X or a Y. XX females make eggs with a single chromosome set, all of which carry an X.

When a sperm fertilises an egg, the sex chromosome the sperm carries determines the sex of the baby. Embryos that receive one X from the mother and another X from the father are destined to be XX girls, and embryos that receive a Y-bearing sperm will develop as XY boys.

So the 1:1 XY ratio in sperm should produce a 1:1 ratio of XX girls and XY boys.

Sex ratio variation

But there are lots of exceptions to a 1:1 ratio in the animal kingdom. There are genetic mutations that subvert the orderly segregation of the X and Y, or that preferentially kill male or female embryos.

Why should the sex ratio be stuck at 1:1 anyway? After all, a few males can fertilise the eggs of many females.

Indeed, for many animals, unequal sex ratios are the norm. For instance, the mouse-sized marsupial Antechinus stuartii produces only 32% males, even when assessed at birth (so it’s not that male babies die more often).

Many birds have sex ratios far from 1:1, and some show very specific adaptations that make ecological sense. For instance, the second kookaburra chick to hatch, facing a lower chance of survival, is usually a female, the sex most likely to survive.

And there are systems of non-standard sex chromosomes. Polar mammals and strange rodents, for instance, are famous for systems in which a mutant X chromosome quashes SRY to form fertile XY females, or a mutated version of SRY doesn’t work. In these species, females predominate, which makes sense for mammals that have to get all their breeding done in a short summer.

Insects take the cake. An extreme case is a kind of mite that produces a ratio of 15 females to 1 male. In many fruit fly species, 95% of sperm carry the X chromosome, so the progeny are largely female.

Why a 1:1 sex ratio in humans? Fisher’s principle

So if sex ratio is so malleable, why have humans (and most mammals) gone for a 1:1 ratio? The great British statistician Ronald Fisher proposed that the ratio is self-correcting and will tend to 1:1 unless there are evolutionary forces that select for distortions.

The argument is simple. Given every baby must have a mother and a father, if there is a deficiency in one sex, the parents of the rarer sex will have more grandchildren than parents of the more common sex.

For instance, if males are the rarer sex, parents who by chance produce more sons than daughters will leave more grandchildren than those that produce more daughters than sons. As a result, son-producing genes will get a boost until parity is reached.

So do we see measurable and heritable departures from 1:1 in the family sex ratio of human sons to daughters? What about Fisher’s principle – is there any evidence that strong evolutionary effects are constraining the human population sex ratio to be 1:1?

In the new research published this week, researchers Siliang Song and Jianzhi Zhang from the University of Michigan conducted an exhaustive examination of huge human data sets from the United Kingdom and found the answer is an emphatic no. They did identify two genetic variants that affected sex ratio, but these seemed not to be passed on through families.

So why do humans obey the 1:1 rule? Is it just statistical artefact, because any one family has relatively so few children that even large departures from a 1:1 ratio get evened out across many families?

Some families have the gene variants to produce more sons than daughters, but other families produce more daughters than sons. Song and Zhang’s analysis suggests this high variability is part of the problem for demonstrating any systematic bias.

Another possibility is that humans face special evolutionary constraints. Perhaps the human tendency for monogamy places additional evolutionary pressure on humans to adhere to Fisher’s principle in a way that does not apply to other animal species.

Whatever the answer, this paper by Song and Zhang raises many intriguing questions, and will be a stimulus to further research on the longstanding and fascinating question of parity in the human sex ratio.

Jenny Graves receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Arthur Georges receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Why do humans have near-equal numbers of male and female babies, unlike many other animals? A new genetic study looks for clues – https://theconversation.com/why-do-humans-have-near-equal-numbers-of-male-and-female-babies-unlike-many-other-animals-a-new-genetic-study-looks-for-clues-241360

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Russell, Principal Research Fellow, CQUniversity Australia

Gambling, especially sports and race betting, is a hot political issue at the moment.

This is largely due to the recommendations from a 2023 report from a nonpartisan federal government committee, chaired by the late Peta Murphy, called You Win Some, You Lose More.

This report recommended “the Australian government, with the cooperation of the states and territories, implement a comprehensive ban on all forms of advertising for online gambling”.

This has led to lots of debate and controversy.

Recently, Peter V’landys, head of the NRL and Racing NSW, claimed lotteries were more harmful than race and sports betting combined, citing independent statistics.

Let’s explore the relative harm of different types of gambling and see if this claim holds up.

Australians love a punt

Gambling is widespread in Australia, with more than half of adults engaging in at least one form each year.

According to the latest national data, lotteries are the most common type (40% of Australians buy a ticket annually), followed by race betting (17%), pokies (16%), scratchies (15.7%) and sports betting (9.6%).

However, the popularity of a gambling form doesn’t necessarily reflect its harm. Different gambling activities have distinct characteristics.

Two key factors mean that some gambling forms are more harmful than others: the speed of gambling and bet size.

Pokies allow for frequent, small bets, with spins every three seconds. Race and sports betting can involve much larger sums and betting that is relatively fast, but still slower than pokie spins.

Sports betting, in particular, is getting faster with in-play betting and microbetting.

Lotteries, on the other hand, are much slower-paced.

People typically spend a small amount on tickets and wait for a draw to find out if they’ve won.

Although it’s possible to spend a lot on tickets, people tend not to, unlike with faster gambling forms.

The average spend on pokies among the 16% who play them is around $4,782 per year, compared to an average spend on lotteries of $377 per year. These are averages. Most won’t spend these amounts but some will spend far more, which raises the average amount.

V’landys’ claim about lotteries being more harmful than race and sports betting was based on “independent statistics”.

He said that of 100 people seeking help from a gambling hotline, 70 had issues with pokies, 15 with lotteries, eight with race betting, four with sports betting, and three with casinos.

We were unable to verify these figures – if anyone has the data, we’d love to see the research to assess them.

However, we do have publicly available data.

What the data say

The NSW GambleAware website’s 2020-21 report shows that of 2,886 people seeking help, 73.3% identified pokies as their primary form of gambling, while only 13 people (less than 1%) listed lotteries. Race betting accounted for 13.1%, and sports betting for 7.9%.

These patterns were consistent with previous years.

People who experience problems also usually take part in more than one form of gambling, as the NSW report showed.

When these secondary gambling activities were considered, sports betting was cited by 35.5%, race betting by 33.5%, pokies by 19.5%, and lotteries by 13.7%.

What we discovered

The best evidence on gambling problems and harm comes from large-scale prevalence studies, typically commissioned by governments and conducted by independent researchers.

These studies offer high-quality insights into how each gambling form contributes to problems.

While one prevalence study is great, our team recently combined data from seven national and state-based prevalence studies. This resulted in a very high-quality dataset that we can use to study this question.

In our analysis, we used statistical techniques to show how strongly each gambling form is associated with problems.

These techniques give us regression coefficients, which are just numbers that tell us how strong the association is. A higher number means a stronger association between that form and gambling problems.

The most problematic form was pokies (coefficient = 0.147), followed by casino games (0.136), sports betting (0.068) and race betting (0.038).

Lotteries, with a coefficient of 0.001, were the least problematic and were not statistically significant even in our large sample.

As you might guess from such a low number, there’s very little relationship between lotteries and gambling problems.

What about prevalence?

Prevalence matters too – while pokies were most strongly associated with problems, the number of people participating in each gambling form is also important.

Let’s consider an analogy – a car that gives out a lot of exhaust fumes. That car is harmful, but if virtually no one owns one, then it’s not going to account for much pollution.

The same idea applies for gambling forms. If a gambling form is very harmful but very few people do it, it doesn’t account for many problems in the population.

It works the other way, too – if there is a very clean type of car that many people drive, they also won’t add up to much pollution.

Similarly, if we have gambling forms that have very little association with problems, it won’t add up to many problems in the population, even if lots of people take part.

The regression coefficients tell us how problematic each gambling form is. Prevalance tells us how many people do it.

When we combine these two bits of information, we can work out the degree of problems in the community that come from each form.

When we did this, pokies were responsible for 52-57% of gambling problems in the community.

Sports and race betting each contributed 9-11%, with a combined total of around 20%.

Lotteries accounted for just 0.1-1% of problems.

Even if we include scratchies as part of lotteries, this only adds another 2-5% of problems, still far below sports and race betting.

The real issue

What’s the takeaway?

Lotteries are widely played but are not typically associated with much harm.

Sports and race betting, despite having fewer participants, are more harmful due to their faster pace and the potential for large, frequent bets.

Lotteries involve slower betting and lower spending, making them much less risky.

If we aim to reduce gambling harm in our community, the focus should be on pokies, which are widespread in pubs and clubs outside WA, casino games and race and sports betting.

These forms have features that make them far more harmful than slower-paced gambling like lotteries.

Alex Russell receives funding from Gambling Research Australia, the Department of Social Services, the NSW Responsible Gambling Fund, the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, the ACT Gambling and Racing Commission, the New Zealand Ministry of Health, the South Australian Government, the Australian Communications and Media Authority, the Northern Territory Department of Industry, Tourism and Trade, the Alberta Gambling Research Institute and Arts Queensland. He previously provided statistical advice on projects to inform a casino group about gambling and gambling problems amongst their employees, and what could be done to reduce this.

He is a board member for the Australian Loneliness Research Foundation.

Matthew Browne has received funding from the ACT Gambling and Racing Commission, the NSW Office of Responsible Gambling, the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, Gambling Research Australia, the Alberta Gambling Research Institute, the Queensland Department of Justice and Attorney-General, the Commonwealth Department of Social Services, the Office of Responsible Gambling, and the South Australian Independent Gambling Authority for various research studies on gambling behaviour, youth gambling, and the social costs of gambling, and gambling-related harm.

Matthew Rockloff receives funding from Matthew Rockloff has received funding from the ACT Gambling and Racing Commission, the NSW Office of Responsible Gambling, the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, Gambling Research Australia, the Alberta Gambling Research Institute, the Queensland Department of Justice and Attorney-General, the Commonwealth Department of Social Services, the Office of Responsible Gambling, and the South Australian Independent Gambling Authority for various research studies on gambling behaviour, youth gambling, and the social costs of gambling, and gambling-related harm.

– ref. Pokies? Lotto? Sports betting? Which forms of problem gambling affect Australians the most? – https://theconversation.com/pokies-lotto-sports-betting-which-forms-of-problem-gambling-affect-australians-the-most-240665

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eileen Joy, Professional Teaching Fellow in Social Work, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

With the recent establishment of a new Social Investment Agency – described as a “driving project” for the government by Finance Minister Nicola Willis – it seems New Zealand has come full circle on this approach to social welfare.

First championed by then finance minister Bill English in 2015, social investment was rebranded “social wellbeing” by Labour-led governments between 2017 and 2023. But Willis signalled before last year’s election that its time had come again.

In a speech in 2022, she argued taxpayer money wasn’t being spent responsibly by the Labour administration, and that a targeted social investment approach was needed. During the 2023 election campaign, the National Party promised social investment would return.

Essentially, the policy involves using data to calculate which groups of people cost the government the most over a lifetime. Interventions aimed at reducing that cost are then targeted at those people. The idea is that early investment saves later social costs.

Right now, however, we don’t know the finer details of how Willis intends to implement the policy. But we do know how it worked in the past – and what lessons might be drawn from its earlier, short-lived implementation.

An actuarial approach to welfare

In New Zealand, the idea of social investment can be traced back to the fifth National government which held office for three terms between 2008 and 2017.

In September 2015, English outlined his approach in a Treasury lecture, explaining how the government had commissioned Australian actuary firm Taylor Fry to calculate the lifetime welfare cost to the state of people on benefits.

Typically, actuaries use statistics to calculate risk for insurance companies, information that is then used to set premiums. English said the Taylor Fry calculations would identify which beneficiary “is going to cost us the most money”.

The answer was single parents receiving a benefit. Consequently, they were deemed most in need of direct government intervention, including giving an approved mentor control of their money.

According to English’s version of social investment, data enabled the government to calculate the “forward liability” of its citizens, and target interventions accordingly.

This is not the only way to define social investment, however, and other countries often adopt a more universal approach. For example, European models tend to focus on social equality and inclusivity rather than targeting specific groups.

English’s model focused on applying benefit sanctions and conditions. The aim was to “reduce the lifetime public cost of the welfare-recipient population, thereby offering fiscal returns-on-investment, absorbed into public coffers”.

A Social Investment Unit was created in 2016, followed by a Social Investment Agency in 2017. This was a standalone agency providing advice across government departments.

No accounting for structural disadvantage

Official thinking about social investment predates the establishment of the unit and agency. In 2015, the second of two reports produced by an expert panel review of the Child, Youth and Family agency (now Oranga Tamariki) recommended a new child-centred social investment agency be created.

The report’s analysis and advice focused on intervening early to reduce the risk of vulnerable children growing up to be beneficiaries, teen parents, substance users or prisoners (among other negative outcomes).

It was suggested these potential future behaviours almost always stemmed from the actions (or inactions) of parents. Māori were identified as being especially costly due to their over-representation in child protection statistics. They were described as a “forward liability associated with poor outcomes”.

The proposed response was early intervention and social investment. That would include the removal of very young children from whānau/families where they were perceived to be at high risk. The reasoning was that the predicted damage might then never eventuate, thereby saving taxpayer dollars.

As my doctoral research found, no consideration in the report was given to the effects of systemic conditions such as poverty and the legacies of colonisation.

Costs to the state

The social investment model, with its emphasis on financial liability to the state, became a major influence on Oranga Tamariki’s practice.

It led to an increase in the early removal of tamariki Māori, especially babies, from their birth families – as demonstrated in the 2019 Hawkes Bay “uplift” case, where social workers attempted to remove a Māori baby soon after birth.

In 2017, the new Labour government promised a review of the Social Investment Agency, renaming it the Social Wellbeing Agency in 2020. The social development minister at the time, Carmel Sepuloni, said the agency would have a more holistic approach. Data would be only one of a number of considerations when delivering social services.

But with the agency now reverting to its original name, the idea of using data to guide early intervention seems to be central again. It’s unclear, however, whether the actuarial approach of Bill English’s earlier model will return.

Nicola Willis does seem to be aware of the criticism of the English-era model’s apparent focus on fiscal risk and returns. She has stressed that measuring other outcomes is also important.

As yet, though, there is no indication the policy’s highly targeted approach to welfare will account for structural factors such as colonisation and poverty.

Given the government’s drive to remove any special policy considerations based on te Tiriti of Waitangi/Treaty of Waitangi, the risk remains that some Māori will again come to be viewed as a “cost” to the state.

Eileen Joy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Social investment is back – and so are the risks of using data to target disadvantage – https://theconversation.com/social-investment-is-back-and-so-are-the-risks-of-using-data-to-target-disadvantage-240799

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Trevor Ireland, Professor, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland

The sight of a fireball streaking across the sky brings wonder and excitement to children and adults alike. It’s a reminder that Earth is part of a much larger and incredibly dynamic system.

Each year, roughly 17,000 of these fireballs not only enter Earth’s atmosphere, but survive the perilous journey to the surface. This gives scientists a valuable chance to study these rocky visitors from outer space.

Scientists know that while some of these these meteorites come from the Moon and Mars, the majority come from asteroids. But two separate studies published in Nature today have gone a step further. The research was led by Miroslav Brož from Charles University in the Czech Republic, and Michaël Marsset from the European Southern Observatory in Chile.

The papers trace the origin of most meteorites to just a handful of asteroid breakup events – and possibly even individual asteroids. In turn, they build our understanding of the events that shaped the history of the Earth – and the entire solar system.

What is a meteorite?

Only when a fireball reaches Earth’s surface is it called a meteorite. They are commonly designated as three types: stony meteorites, iron meteorites, and stony-iron meteorites.

Stony meteorites come in two types.

The most common are the chondrites, which have round objects inside that appear to have formed as melt droplets. These comprise 85% of all meteorites found on Earth.

Most are known as “ordinary chondrites”. They are then divided into three broad classes – H, L and LL – based on the iron content of the meteorites and the distribution of iron and magnesium in the major minerals olivine and pyroxene. These silicate minerals are the mineral building blocks of our solar system and are common on Earth, being present in basalt.

“Carbonaceous chondrites” are a distinct group. They contain high amounts of water in clay minerals, and organic materials such as amino acids. Chondrites have never been melted and are direct samples of the dust that originally formed the solar system.

The less common of the two types of stony meteorites are the so-called “achondrites”. These do not have the distinctive round particles of chondrites, because they experienced melting on planetary bodies.

The asteroid belt

Asteroids are the primary sources of meteorites.

Most asteroids reside in a dense belt between Mars and Jupiter. The asteroid belt itself consists of millions of asteroids swept around and marshalled by the gravitational force of Jupiter.

The interactions with Jupiter can perturb asteroid orbits and cause collisions. This results in debris, which can aggregate into rubble pile asteroids. These then take on lives of their own.

It is asteroids of this type which the recent Hayabusa and Osiris-REx missions visited and returned samples from. These missions established the connection between distinct asteroid types and the meteorites that fall to Earth.

S-class asteroids (akin to stony meteorites) are found on the inner regions of the belt, while C-class carbonaceous asteroids (akin to carbonaceous chondrites) are more commonly found in the outer regions of the belt.

But, as the two Nature studies show, we can relate a specific meteorite type to its specific source asteroid in the main belt.

One family of asteroids

The two new studies place the sources of ordinary chondrite types into specific asteroid families – and most likely specific asteroids. This work requires painstaking back-tracking of meteoroid trajectories, observations of individual asteroids, and detailed modelling of the orbital evolution of parent bodies.

The study led by Miroslav Brož reports that ordinary chondrites originate from collisions between asteroids larger than 30 kilometres in diameter that occurred less than 30 million years ago.

The Koronis and Massalia asteroid families provide appropriate body sizes and are in a position that leads to material falling to Earth, based on detailed computer modelling. Of these families, asteroids Koronis and Karin are likely the dominant sources of H chondrites. Massalia (L) and Flora (LL) families are by far the main sources of L- and LL-like meteorites.

The study led by Michaël Marsset further documents the origin of L chondrite meteorites from Massalia.

It compiled spectroscopic data – that is, characteristic light intensities which can be fingerprints of different molecules – of asteroids in the belt between Mars and Jupiter. This showed that the composition of L chondrite meteorites on Earth is very similar to that of the Massalia family of asteroids.

The scientists then used computer modelling to show an asteroid collision that occurred roughly 470 million years ago formed the Massalia family. Serendipitously, this collision also resulted in abundant fossil meteorites in Ordovician limestones in Sweden.

In determining the source asteroid body, these reports provide the foundations for missions to visit the asteroids responsible for the most common outerspace visitors to Earth. In understanding these source asteroids, we can view the events that shaped our planetary system.

Trevor Ireland receives funding from the Australian Research Council for research into the samples returned by the Hayabusa and Osiris-REx missions. He is a past President of the Meteoritical Society, the international organisation responsible for classification and cataloguing meteorites.

– ref. New research shows most space rocks crashing into Earth come from a single source – https://theconversation.com/new-research-shows-most-space-rocks-crashing-into-earth-come-from-a-single-source-241455

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

Lucky Loser tells the story of Donald Trump’s less-than-stellar business career and how he was able to misrepresent it as a success.

It is written by New York Times investigative journalists, Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig. Both have won Pulitzer Prizes for earlier analyses of Trump. Another badge of honour is Trump sued them – and lost.

They are by no means the first writers to expose the Potemkin village that is Trump’s business empire. A telling insider account came from Trump’s niece, psychologist Mary Trump, who revealed the creator of Donald’s fortune was his father Fred.

Lucky Loser: How Donald Trump Squandered His Father’s Fortune and Created the Illusion of Success – Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig (Bodley Head)

Setting things straight

However, at more than 500 pages, including more than 40
pages of notes on sources, this new book is the most comprehensive rendering. It is detailed, clearly written and has been well-reviewed in the financial press and by economic historian Brad de Long.

The authors aim to draw on financial statements and interviews to “set straight Donald Trump’s chaotic onslaught of untruths and misdirection”.

A large part of the Trump mythology is the lie that he is a self-made billionaire. In the presidential debate with Hillary Clinton, Trump sought to downplay the contribution of his father, saying “my father gave me a very small loan”. The book reveals his father’s contribution, in today’s money, was around half a billion US dollars.

Trump’s first piece of luck was being born the son of hard-working, cautious and competent residential property developer Fred Trump, the son of a German immigrant. His second was that Fred’s eldest son did not have the ruthless drive to become Fred’s successor, and Fred did not consider his daughters as potential successors. So despite some characteristics that were the antithesis of his father, Donald became his heir.

The book describes Fred’s career in some detail. The first hundred pages are mostly about him. Once Fred stepped back, Trump diversified his father’s company to form what the authors term

an eclectic conglomerate untethered from any core competency.

Another piece of luck was been chosen to star in the reality television series The Apprentice, from which he made a lot of money, including from licensing deals, for the small amount of time he spent on it.

The producers of this series have a lot to answer for, as they wanted to present their star as the astute businessman they knew him not to be. As they said, it was “not a documentary”. But it enormously and misleadingly raised Trump’s profile.

Wins followed by losses

The authors describe how some of Trump’s ventures, such as the development of Trump Tower, went well as the Manhattan property market boomed. He also profited from some “greenmailing” (buying shares in a company with the stated or implied intention of taking it over and then selling the shares at a higher price), facilitated by exaggerated accounts in the media of his wealth.

But Trump used up much of the proceeds of his few successes covering his losses on a range of his other business ventures.

Among his notable failures was Trump University, where he paid A$37 million to settle lawsuits for fraud. Many other property projects, Scottish golf courses, Trump Ice bottled water and Trump Mortgage, never turned a profit. And the punters were not the only ones losing money in Trump casinos.

While he has fought to keep them secret, what has emerged from Trump’s tax returns are a series of huge losses.

A conundrum not really addressed in the book is why so many bankers were willing to lend to him.

Read more:
What would a second Trump presidency mean for the global economy?

The book concentrates on Trump’s career before the 2016 election, when the flawed US electoral system turned his almost 3 million vote loss on the popular vote into a win in the electoral college. As president, he disregarded conflicts of interest. As the authors note, parties wanting to influence the president could funnel money to him by booking blocks of rooms at his hotel.

After 81 million Americans voted to fire him in 2020, Trump’s businesses again performed poorly.

Trump’s current wealth is estimated by Forbes at A$5.7 billion (less than it was a decade ago). But about half of this is from his majority stake in Truth Social, promoted as a right-wing alternative to Twitter. (Now, it could be said, an even more right-wing forum than X.) It has tiny and falling revenues and makes large losses. If Trump loses the election, its value will probably soon be close to zero. It is regarded as a “meme stock”.

Buettner and Craig conclude Trump “would have been better off betting on the sharemarket than on himself”. Analysis cited in The Economist in 2018 concluded that had Trump just put the money from his father into a sharemarket index fund he would have had A$2.9 billion in 2018. Given subsequent rises in the US stockmarket that would have grown to around A$5.9 billion by now, more than most estimates of his wealth.

Forbes reached a similar conclusion, as did De Long and US political commentator Professor Robert Reich. The self-described business genius destroyed rather than created value.

A poor tycoon and a poor president

This business record of mismanaging an inheritance is reflected in Trump’s economic performance as president. He inherited the world’s largest economy from Obama. By the end of his term it was more than 10% smaller than China’s economy. Historians rank him one of the worst performing presidents on economic management (and much else). The public gave him the lowest approval ratings during his presidential term.

Trump has indeed been a “lucky loser”. But if this deeply flawed man is returned to the presidency, the world will be an unlucky loser.

Read more:
From mass deportations to huge tariff hikes, here’s what Trump’s economic program would do to the US and Australia

John Hawkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A new book reveals much of Trump’s success is based on a myth he is a self-made billionaire – https://theconversation.com/a-new-book-reveals-much-of-trumps-success-is-based-on-a-myth-he-is-a-self-made-billionaire-240648

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Albanese government is giving 49 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, despite earlier this year apparently playing down the prospect of the donation.

The latest Australian package is worth A$245 million. It brings the total Australian military aid to Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022 to A$1.3 billion, and overall Australian support to A$1.5 billion.

When asked about a possible gift of the tanks in February, Defence Minister Richard Marles said it was “not on the agenda”.

Government sources say donating the tanks required US approval since Australia had purchased them from Washington, so there had been a process to go through.

Minister for Defence Industry and Capability Delivery Pat Conroy, who is on his way to the NATO defence ministers meeting in Brussels, announced the decision in London. In Brussels, Conroy will meet with the Ukraine defence minister.

Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea form the “Indo-Pacific Four” group of non-NATO countries attending the meeting.

The 49 tanks are near the end of their life, so a small number will have to be repaired before they are delivered. Alternatively, they could be used as spare parts if Ukraine wants them delivered more quickly. Ukraine will decide which option to pursue.

The Australian army is retaining a handful of the M1A1 Abrams to help the transition to the M1A2 fleet of tanks.

Conroy said: “We stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine in their fight against Russia’s illegal invasion. These tanks will deliver more firepower and mobility to the Ukrainian armed forces, and complement the support provided by our partners for Ukraine”.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australia donates 49 Abrams tanks to Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/australia-donates-49-abrams-tanks-to-ukraine-241485

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Unless the government pulls up its political socks, Anthony Albanese could find himself spending a good deal of time in his  spectacular new home, with its uninterrupted ocean views, sooner than he wishes.

This week’s Newspoll has the Coalition moving in front on a two-party basis for the first time, with Labor’s primary vote at 31%.

Albanese would hope for another full term as prime minister. But if Labor fell into minority government at next year’s election, there would likely be pressure before too long to replace him. He would not be seen as a good bet for the 2028 election.

If Peter Dutton pulled off a miracle win in a few months, Albanese could be regularly whale watching this time next year.

Since the PM’s purchase of the $4.3 million house at the wonderfully-named Copacabana, was revealed on Tuesday,  two narratives have contended.

Critics denounce Albanese as “tone deaf” in his timing during a housing affordability crisis.

It was more than awkward that just hours after the news broke, Albanese was appearing with minister Clare O’Neil in Queensland to make an announcement about  housing.

The Copacabana house is a story made for that renter-in-perpetuity, Greens spokesman Max Chandler-Mather.

Dutton, who has bought and sold a few properties in his time, is careful with his words, knowing others will stir the outrage.

The alternative narrative is that Albanese, marrying for a second time next year, is entitled to a private life. This involves reordering his property arrangements ahead of a wedding.

Moreover, some observe, the criticism of him is the “politics of envy” or the “tall poppy syndrome”.

But there’s another narrative. Suddenly, Albanese’s story has become “all about him” again, as it regularly does when he reverts to talking about his humble origins.

Stressed voters could be forgiven for being impatient, or cynical about Albanese’s protestations this week that although he now has a good income, “I also know what it’s like to struggle”.

My mum lived in the one public housing that she was born in for all of her 65 years. And I know what it’s like, which is why I want to help all Australians into a home, whether it be public homes or private rentals or home ownership.

Unfairly or not, the house story will be read by some as a prime minister spending time on his own affairs.

Buying a house is a major and reasonably time-consuming process, unless it was outsourced it to partner, Jodie Haydon. The Central Coast was chosen because her family lives there.

The narrative can also be cast to look like Albanese is preparing for his post-political life while he is still the most important individual in politics.

Whether this is accurate becomes beside the point, in this era when perceptions can be paramount.

Unsurprisingly, he was asked whether he planned to retire at the house. “I’m planning to be in my current job for a very long period of time,” he said.

In mid-1991 Bob Hawke purchased a property overlooking Sydney Harbour with a jetty and “stunning views”, and a price tag of $1.23 million.

Hawke’s leadership was already on the decline – by year’s end he was replaced by Paul Keating.

Apart from the bad publicity for Albanese, the house affair has taken a good deal of attention from what the government wanted to talk about, notably, what it’s doing to protect consumers and the like.

It has meant his ministerial colleagues are forced to defend him when they are confronted with awkward questions.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen tried to make the best fist of it that he could, when quizzed during an interview.

“Every Australian is entitled to buy and sell property. Now Anthony cops it when he sells the property. He cops it when he provides a rent holiday to his tenants. He cops it when he buys a property,” he said.

“I think most average Australians say, fair enough. You know, this is what aspiration is about, most average Australians say, well, you know, we all buy and sell properties.”

When you are in the public eye it is not, however, such an ordinary story.

By the way, when Albanese goes to the G20 in Rio de Janeiro next month, he can get to see the real Copacabana.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Albanese would be better off if the story wasn’t ‘all about him’ – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-would-be-better-off-if-the-story-wasnt-all-about-him-241479