Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vincent Ho, Associate Professor and clinical academic gastroenterologist, Western Sydney University

No, you’re not imagining it. People really are more likely to poo in the morning, shortly after breakfast. Researchers have actually studied this.

But why mornings? What if you tend to poo later in the day? And is it worth training yourself to be a morning pooper?

To understand what makes us poo when we do, we need to consider a range of factors including our body clock, gut muscles and what we have for breakfast.

Here’s what the science says.

So morning poos are real?

In a UK study from the early 1990s, researchers asked nearly 2,000 men and women in Bristol about their bowel habits.

The most common time to poo was in the early morning. The peak time was 7-8am for men and about an hour later for women. The researchers speculated that the earlier time for men was because they woke up earlier for work.

About a decade later, a Chinese study found a similar pattern. Some 77% of the almost 2,500 participants said they did a poo in the morning.

But why the morning?

There are a few reasons. The first involves our circadian rhythm – our 24-hour internal clock that helps regulate bodily processes, such as digestion.

For healthy people, our internal clock means the muscular contractions in our colon follow a distinct rhythm.

There’s minimal activity in the night. The deeper and more restful our sleep, the fewer of these muscle contractions we have. It’s one reason why we don’t tend to poo in our sleep.

But there’s increasing activity during the day. Contractions in our colon are most active in the morning after waking up and after any meal.

One particular type of colon contraction partly controlled by our internal clock are known as “mass movements”. These are powerful contractions that push poo down to the rectum to prepare for the poo to be expelled from the body, but don’t always result in a bowel movement. In healthy people, these contractions occur a few times a day. They are more frequent in the morning than in the evening, and after meals.

Breakfast is also a trigger for us to poo. When we eat and drink our stomach stretches, which triggers the “gastrocolic reflex”. This reflex stimulates the colon to forcefully contract and can lead you to push existing poo in the colon out of the body. We know the gastrocolic reflex is strongest in the morning. So that explains why breakfast can be such a powerful trigger for a bowel motion.

Then there’s our morning coffee. This is a very powerful stimulant of contractions in the sigmoid colon (the last part of the colon before the rectum) and of the rectum itself. This leads to a bowel motion.

How important are morning poos?

Large international surveys show the vast majority of people will poo between three times a day and three times a week.

This still leaves a lot of people who don’t have regular bowel habits, are regular but poo at different frequencies, or who don’t always poo in the morning.

So if you’re healthy, it’s much more important that your bowel habits are comfortable and regular for you. Bowel motions do not have to occur once a day in the morning.

Morning poos are also not a good thing for everyone. Some people with irritable bowel syndrome feel the urgent need to poo in the morning – often several times after getting up, during and after breakfast. This can be quite distressing. It appears this early-morning rush to poo is due to overstimulation of colon contractions in the morning.

Can you train yourself to be regular?

Yes, for example, to help treat constipation using the gastrocolic reflex. Children and elderly people with constipation can use the toilet immediately after eating breakfast to relieve symptoms. And for adults with constipation, drinking coffee regularly can help stimulate the gut, particularly in the morning.

A disturbed circadian rhythm can also lead to irregular bowel motions and people more likely to poo in the evenings. So better sleep habits can not only help people get a better night’s sleep, it can help them get into a more regular bowel routine.

Regular physical activity and avoiding sitting down a lot are also important in stimulating bowel movements, particularly in people with constipation.

We know stress can contribute to irregular bowel habits. So minimising stress and focusing on relaxation can help bowel habits become more regular.

Fibre from fruits and vegetables also helps make bowel motions more regular.

Finally, ensuring adequate hydration helps minimise the chance of developing constipation, and helps make bowel motions more regular.

Monitoring your bowel habits

Most of us consider pooing in the morning to be regular. But there’s a wide variation in normal so don’t be concerned if your poos don’t follow this pattern. It’s more important your poos are comfortable and regular for you.

If there’s a major change in the regularity of your bowel habits that’s concerning you, see your GP. The reason might be as simple as a change in diet or starting a new medication.

But sometimes this can signify an important change in the health of your gut. So your GP may need to arrange further investigations, which could include blood tests or imaging.

Vincent Ho does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why do I poo in the morning? A gut expert explains – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/229624

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caroline Fisher, Associate Professor of Communication, University of Canberra

There has been a lot of hype about the emergence of generative AI products such as ChatGPT. Organisations, including news outlets, are rapidly adopting artificial intelligence technologies to boost productivity and creativity. Some news organisations are also cutting deals with AI companies to pay them for scraping their content.

But what does the public think about the increasing role of AI in the production of news?

This year’s Digital News Report: Australia 2024 finds Australians prefer news that is made by humans, rather than AI, but the degree of discomfort depends on the topic.

The online survey of 2,003 adult Australians finds they are much more comfortable with sport (31%) and entertainment (26%) news being produced mainly by AI than with politics (19%) and crime (21%) news being produced the same way (see the chart below).

This suggests those who favour so-called “hard” news subjects are more sceptical about the use of AI in news and the impact it might have on the quality of news about important civic and social issues. Sports, lifestyle and culture news lovers are more relaxed about it, reflecting the different role these news genres play in people’s lives.

But, overall, 59% say they feel uneasy about news produced by AI with human oversight. This is compared to 28% who say they uncomfortable about news that is mainly produced by human journalists with AI assistance.

A lack of understanding about AI technology is a likely factor in people’s discomfort with it. Only 44% say they know a moderate or large amount about AI. Those who know a fair bit (26%) are more likely to say they’re comfortable with news produced mostly by AI, compared to those who only know a small amount (11%) or nothing at all (7%).

But awareness is also related to news consumption. Compared to heavy news users (51%), Australians who rarely or never access news are the least likely to be aware of AI technology (17%) and to be comfortable with news stories mostly produced by it (6%).

These findings suggest attitudes towards AI in news may change over time as audiences become more familiar with it. They also highlight the important role news organisations can play in helping to explain how they use the technology.

People who trust news are more comfortable with AI

Transparency appears to be key. Our study found a link between people’s comfort with the use of AI in news, their awareness of AI, and their trust in news. The more awareness they have about AI and the more they trust news, the more comfortable they are likely to be with its use in producing news.

One-quarter of people who trust the news they choose to consume say they are comfortable with it being produced mostly by AI, with human assistance. Conversely, those who distrust their news are the most likely to say they are somewhat or very uncomfortable with this scenario (70%).

For people who don’t trust the news, the increasing use of AI may add another layer of uncertainty in an online environment in which it is already difficult to identify reliable information.

Given this strong link to trust in news, it is important that news organisations are open with their audience about how and why AI is being used to create news. While adopting AI technologies might reduce costs for news outlets, it would be counterproductive to do it at the price of trust in their news.

With the growth of AI news summaries, news brands need to do all they can to showcase their original and credible content to hold on to their paying audiences.

In its tenth edition, the Digital News Report: Australia 2024 also finds:

• heavy news consumption has risen to 51% compared to 48% in 2023, particularly among Gen Z women
• 41% say they have news fatigue (up from 28% in 2019)
• trust in news has remained steady, but distrust in news has risen consistently over the past ten years
• interest in news about the economy and mental health has risen since 2022
• social media are the main source of news for 60% of Gen Z (compared to 47% in 2023)
• the number of X (Twitter) users paying attention to mainstream news on X dropped to 49% (down 13 percentage points), while those paying attention to posts from ordinary people increased (47%, up 10 percentage points).

Digital News Report: Australia is produced by the News & Media Research Centre (N&MRC) at the University of Canberra and is part of a global annual survey of digital news consumption in 47 countries, commissioned by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford. The survey was conducted by YouGov at the end of January/beginning of February 2024. The data are weighted for age, gender and region. Education and political quotas were applied. In Australia, this is the tenth annual survey of its kind produced by the N&MRC.

Caroline Fisher receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Kieran McGuinness has received funding from Google News Initiative and the Australian Communications and Media Authority.

Sora Park receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Creative Australia.

– ref. Australians say AI shouldn’t produce political news, but it’s OK for sport: new research – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231369

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted June 11–15 from a sample of 1,607, gave the Coalition 36% of the primary vote (steady since the May post-budget Resolve poll), Labor 28% (down one), the Greens 14% (up two), One Nation 6% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 11% (down one) and others 4% (up two).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two party estimate, but applying 2022 preference flows to this poll would give Labor about a 51–49 lead, unchanged since May. This is where the good news from this poll ends for Labor.

Peter Dutton has taken a 36–35 lead as preferred PM over Anthony Albanese, a reversal of a 40–32 lead for Albanese in May. The preferred PM measure usually skews to incumbents relative to voting intentions. This is the first time any national poll has given Dutton a preferred PM lead.

Albanese’s ratings were 50% poor and 36% good, for a net approval of -14, down three points since May. Dutton’s net approval surged seven points to +2. This is Dutton’s second positive net approval from any national poll, after an April Essential poll gave him a +3 net approval.

On economic management, the Liberals extended their lead over Labor to 40–24 from 38–29 in May. The Liberal lead on keeping the cost of living low increased slightly to 32–25 from 32–26.

When asked to rank the most important issue, 54% selected keeping the cost of living low, while just 7% selected the environment and climate change. I believe this explains why Dutton isn’t suffering a backlash from his climate stance.

Last week’s Newspoll had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, so this Resolve poll is more evidence that Dutton is advancing. The Morgan poll below differs, but it is a volatile poll.

Freshwater poll steady at a 50–50 tie

A national Freshwater poll for The Australian Financial Review, conducted June 14–16 from a sample of 1,060, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the May post-budget Freshwater poll. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one) and 15% for all Others (up one). Freshwater is usually better for the Coalition than other polls.

Albanese’s lead as preferred PM over Dutton was reduced to 43–41 from 46–37 in May. Albanese’s net approval fell four points to -12, with 46% disapproving and 34% approving. Dutton’s net approval was up four points to -5.

Labor’s position against the Coalition on a range of issues was reduced by one to eight points since May, including a six-point widening in the Coalition’s lead on the crucial issue of cost of living to 36–27.

Morgan poll Labor’s best for three months

In the national Morgan poll that was conducted June 3–9 from a sample of 1,687, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the May 27 to June 2 poll. This was Labor’s best position in this series for three months. However, the Coalition had its best result this term in the May 20–26 Morgan poll, when they led by 51.5–48.5. This pollster is volatile.

Primary votes in the latest poll were 35% Coalition (down one), 30.5% Labor (down 0.5), 15.5% Greens (up 1.5), 5.5% One Nation (up one), 9.5% independents (up 0.5) and 4% others (down 1.5).

North Sydney abolished in NSW federal draft redistribution

The New South Wales federal draft redistribution was released last Friday. North Sydney, currently held by teal independent Kylea Tink, was abolished. The Poll Bludger has calculated the new margins for all NSW seats.

Bennelong is the only change in notional party alignment, with a 1.1% swing to the Liberals barely putting them ahead of Labor. In Bradfield, the Liberal margin over a teal independent was reduced to 52.5–47.5, a 1.8% swing to a teal. The Liberal-held Hughes swung 3.7% to Labor, with the Liberals still ahead by 53.3–46.7.

I covered the Victorian and Western Australian draft federal redistributions on May 31. It’s expected to be a few months before the redistributions are finalised. Until finalisation, the new boundaries can’t be used at an election.

Analyst Kevin Bonham, using the draft redistributions, said his seat model would give Labor 79 of the now 150 House of Representatives seats if there was no two-party swing from the 2022 election, which Labor won by 52.1–47.9. This would be a one-seat gain for Labor from the current House.

Assuming no changes to the crossbench, Labor would have an even chance of retaining their majority with a 51.1–48.9 national two-party win, about where polls are now. The Coalition would need a 51.3–48.7 two-party split in its favour to win more seats than Labor, and a 53.4–46.6 split to win a majority.

NSW Redbridge poll: Labor barely ahead

A New South Wales state Redbridge poll, conducted in two waves in February and May from a sample of 1,376, gave Labor just a 50.5–49.5 lead, a four-point gain for the Coalition since the March 2023 election. Primary votes were 40% Coalition, 35% Labor, 11% Greens and 14% for all Others. This poll was reported in The Daily Telegraph on June 10.

Despite the poor voting intentions result for Labor, the “Labor government led by Chris Minns” had a +20 net approval, with 40% rating it good and 20% poor. The Coalition opposition led by Mark Speakman had a -2 net approval (21% poor, 19% good).

In other NSW news, there will be a byelection this Saturday in Northern Tablelands, which the Nationals won by 83.8–16.2 over Labor at the 2023 election. The Poll Bludger reported last Thursday that Labor is not contesting the byelection.

Right advances in Europe as early French election called

I covered the June 6–9 European parliament election for The Poll Bludger. Right-wing parties made gains mainly at the expense of the Greens and the liberals.

After dismal European election results for his party, French President Emmanuel Macron called new parliamentary elections, two years into a five-year term. The first round of these elections will be held on June 30, with the runoffs on July 7.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Dutton snatches preferred PM lead in Resolve poll as draft redistributions finished – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232378

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jenny Graves, Distinguished Professor of Genetics and Vice Chancellor’s Fellow, La Trobe University

Neanderthals, the closest cousins of modern humans, lived in parts of Europe and Asia until their extinction some 30,000 years ago.

Genetic studies are revealing ever more about the links between modern humans and these long-gone relatives – most recently that a rush of interbreeding between our species occurred in a relatively short burst of time around 47,000 years ago. But one mystery still remains.

The Homo sapiens genome today contains a little bit of Neanderthal DNA. These genetic traces come from almost every part of the Neanderthal genome – except the Y sex chromosome, which is responsible for making males.

So what happened to the Neanderthal Y chromosome? It could have been lost by accident, or because of mating patterns or inferior function. However, the answer may lie in a century-old theory about the health of interspecies hybrids.

Neanderthal sex, genes and chromosomes

Neanderthals and modern humans went their separate ways somewhere between 550,000 and 765,000 years ago in Africa, when Neanderthals wandered off into Europe but our ancestors stayed put. They would not meet again until H. sapiens migrated into Europe and Asia between 40,000 and 50,000 years ago.

Scientists have recovered copies of the full male and female Neanderthal genomes, thanks to DNA from well-preserved bones and teeth of Neanderthal individuals in Europe and Asia. Unsurprisingly, the Neanderthal genome was very similar to ours, containing about 20,000 genes bundled into 23 chromosomes.

Like us, they had two copies of 22 of those chromosomes (one from each parent), and also a pair of sex chromosomes. Females had two X chromosomes, while males had one X and one Y.

Y chromosomes are hard to sequence because they contain a lot of repetitive “junk” DNA, so the Neanderthal Y genome has only been partially sequenced. However, the large chunk that has been sequenced contains versions of several of the same genes that are in the modern human Y chromosome.

In modern humans, a Y chromosome gene called SRY kickstarts the process of an XY embryo developing into a male. The SRY gene plays this role in all apes, so we assume it did for Neanderthals as well – even though we haven’t found the Neanderthal SRY gene itself.

Interspecies mating left us with Neanderthal genes

There are lots of little giveaways that mark a DNA sequence as coming from a Neanderthal or a H. sapiens. So we can look for bits of Neanderthal DNA sequence in the genomes of modern humans.

The genomes of all human lineages originating in Europe contain about 2% Neanderthal DNA sequences. Lineages from Asia and India contain even more, while lineages restricted to Africa have none. Some ancient Homo sapiens genomes contained even more – 6% or so – so it looks like the Neanderthal genes are gradually fading out.

Most of this Neanderthal DNA arrived in a 7,000-year period about 47,000 years ago, after modern humans came out of Africa into Europe, and before Neanderthals became extinct about 30,000 years ago. During this time there must have been many pairings between Neanderthals and humans.

At least half of the whole Neanderthal genome can be pieced together from fragments found in the genomes of different contemporary humans. We have our Neanderthal ancestors to thank for traits including red hair, arthritis and resistance to some diseases.

There is one glaring exception. No contemporary humans have been found to harbour any part of the Neanderthal Y chromosome.

What happened to the Neanderthal Y chromosome?

Was it just bad luck that the Neanderthal Y chromosome got lost? Was it not very good at its job of making males? Did Neanderthal women, but not men, indulge in interspecies mating? Or was there something toxic about the Neanderthal Y so it wouldn’t work with human genes?

A Y chromosome comes to the end of the line if its bearers have no sons, so it may simply have been lost over thousands of generations.

Or maybe the Neanderthal Y was never present in interspecies matings. Perhaps it was always modern human men who fell in love with (or traded, seized or raped) Neanderthal women? Sons born to these women would all have the H. sapiens form of the Y chromosome. However, it’s hard to reconcile this idea with the finding that there is no trace of Neanderthal mitochondrial DNA (which is limited to the female line) in modern humans.

Or perhaps the Neanderthal Y chromosome was just not as good at is job as its H. sapiens rival. Neanderthal populations were always small, so harmful mutations would have been more likely to accumulate.

We know that Y chromosomes with a particularly useful gene (for instance for more or better or faster sperm) rapidly replace other Y chromosomes in a population (called the hitchhiker effect).

We also know the Y chromosome is degrading overall in humans. It is even possible that SRY was lost from the Neanderthal Y, and that Neanderthals were in the disruptive process of evolving a new sex-determining gene, like some rodents have.

Was the Neanderthal Y chromosome toxic in hybrid boys?

Another possibility is that the Neanderthal Y chromosome won’t work with genes on other chromosomes from modern humans.

The missing Neanderthal Y may then be explained by “Haldane’s rule”. In the 1920s, British biologist J.B.S. Haldane noted that, in hybrids between species, if one sex is infertile, rare or unhealthy, it is always the sex with unlike sex chromosomes.

In mammals and other animals where females have XX chromosomes and males have XY, it is disproportionately male hybrids that are unfit or infertile. In birds, butterflies and other animals where males have ZZ chromosomes and females have ZW, it is the females.

Many crosses between different species of mice show this pattern, as do feline crosses. For example, in lion–tiger crosses (ligers and tigons), females are fertile but males are sterile.

We still lack a good explanation of Haldane’s rule. It is one of the enduring mysteries of classic genetics.

But it seems reasonable that the Y chromosome from one species has evolved to work with genes from the other chromosomes of its own species, and might not work with genes from a related species that contain even small changes.

We know that genes on the Y evolve much faster than genes on other chromosomes, and several have functions in making sperm, which may explain the infertility of male hybrids.

So this might explain why the Neanderthal Y got lost. It also raises the possibility that it was the fault of the Y chromosome, in imposing a reproductive barrier, that Neanderthals and humans became separate species in the first place.

Jenny Graves receives funding from the Australian Research Council

– ref. Modern human DNA contains bits from all over the Neanderthal genome – except the Y chromosome. What happened? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/230984

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra James, Research Fellow, Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University

Globally, more than 1 million curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are contracted every day in people aged 15–49. These include chlamydia, gonorrhoea and syphilis, among others.

In Australia, it’s estimated one in six people will receive an STI diagnosis in their lifetime – and the numbers are going up.

Very few common infections are stigmatised in the way STIs are, which makes them a particularly complex public health problem. Stigma perpetuates shame and anxiety among those diagnosed with an STI, which can lead people to delay testing or treatment.

Stigma can also make it difficult for people to tell their sexual partners about an STI diagnosis. A recent study found only around half of people disclosed or believed they should disclose an STI to a partner before having sex.

Why don’t people disclose an STI, and why do they?

The study, published this month in the Journal of Sex Research, was a systematic review, which means the researchers analysed the results of several studies. They looked at a total of 32 papers, mostly from the United States, with some from the United Kingdom and Australia. The study included a range of STIs, but excluded HIV.

When the researchers combined the results of these studies, they found only half or fewer people told a partner if they had an STI, or believed they should disclose this information to a partner, before having sex.

Common reasons for not telling a sexual partner about an STI included fear about how their partner would respond, and fear of rejection by their partner.

Some people didn’t think they needed to tell their partners, or saw it as a private matter – especially in casual sexual encounters. Younger people aged under 24 were less likely to tell sexual partners about an STI than older people.

Others believed there was no risk of transmission because they weren’t experiencing symptoms, or felt they had taken reasonable precautions to protect their sexual partner from STI transmission.

Condoms, when used correctly, are one of the most effective measures to protect against STIs, including chlamydia and gonorrhoea. But they won’t necessarily protect against STIs such as herpes, genital warts or syphilis, which can be spread by skin-to-skin contact. Dental dams can also be used during oral sex to help prevent STIs.

Not disclosing STIs to a sexual partner – particularly where effective protection was not used – can create problems. It can prevent someone who has potentially been exposed to an STI, or transmitted an STI, from being tested and treated. Then, the STI may be passed on to others.

The review also found some people hold off on sexual activity entirely after an STI diagnosis, or choose not to enter into a new sexual relationship, to avoid telling their partner about their STI status.

Of people who do tell their partner, they often reported this was because they value honesty in their relationship or view disclosing their STI as a moral obligation. Others disclose their STI status to protect their partner’s health and ensure they avoid long-term problems such as infertility that can arise from untreated infections. Some people tell their partner as a means to get emotional support.

Separate research has found that when people don’t tell their sexual partner about having an STI it can lead to increased anxiety and lower sexual satisfaction for the person with the STI.

Making STI disclosure easier

Talking about an STI diagnosis can be awkward and uncomfortable. But resources are available to help people talk to their partners about STIs or help them disclose an STI diagnosis.

These include confidential services that allow people to send anonymous text message or email notifications to sexual partners to tell them they have potentially been exposed to an STI.

These can be helpful for people who feel unable to talk with a previous sexual partner about their diagnosis, for example because a recent sexual partner was only a casual contact.

However, most people disclosing an STI prefer to speak directly with their sexual partners, particularly if they’re in an ongoing relationship.

Tackling stigma is key

For young people, school-based sex education will usually address STIs, but this needs to be done with care. Education that focuses only on the risks, dangers and “icky” parts of sex alienates young people and can enhance stigma related to STIs. This can make it less likely young people will seek STI screening or disclose an infection.

Contemporary approaches to comprehensive sex education emphasise the importance of supporting young people to navigate safe, respectful and pleasurable sexual relationships.

Education should include non-shaming information that demystifies STIs by reminding young people that they are common, testing is simple and most STIs are easily treatable.

But STIs are not just an issue for young people. We can’t assume someone automatically understands their sexual health once they become an adult.

Investment in campaigns that normalise STI screening, such as the fantastic Drama Downunder campaign, which uses prominent and humorous imagery to draw attention to STI prevention and testing for gay, bisexual, queer and trans men, can support people to seek sexual health services and have conversations about STIs.

Recently, the Australian government launched Beforeplay, a national advertising campaign to promote STI awareness and testing among adults. The success of this campaign will depend on its capacity to normalise open communication about sexual health and STI testing across a broad population.

The high level of stigma and shame associated with STIs makes them a unique and complex public health problem. Reducing STI rates will require tackling this stigma and shame.

Alexandra James receives funding from The Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care and Lifestyles Australia.

Jennifer Power receives funding from the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care and the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Why don’t people disclose STIs to a sexual partner? Stigma has a lot to do with it – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231914

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tyler Rohr, Lecturer in Southern Ocean Biogeochemical Modelling, IMAS, University of Tasmania

As the world struggles to decarbonise, it’s becoming increasingly clear we’ll need to both rapidly reduce emissions and actively remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report considered 230 pathways to keep global warming below 1.5°C. All required CO₂ removal.

Some of the most promising CO₂ removal technologies receiving government funding in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia seek to increase the massive carbon storage potential of the ocean. These include fertilising tiny plants and tweaking ocean chemistry.

Ocean-based approaches are gaining popularity because they could potentially store carbon for a tenth of the cost of “direct air capture”, where CO₂ is sucked from the air with energy-intensive machinery.

But the marine carbon cycle is much harder to predict. Scientists must unravel the many complex natural processes that could alter the efficiency, efficacy and safety of ocean-based CO₂ removal before it can go ahead.

In our new research, we highlight a surprisingly important mechanism that had previously been overlooked. If CO₂ removal techniques change the appetite of tiny animals at the base of the food chain, that could dramatically change how much carbon is actually stored.

Plankton dominate the carbon pump

Tiny marine life forms called plankton play a huge role in ocean carbon cycling. These microscopic organisms drift on the ocean currents, moving captured carbon throughout the seas.

Like plants on land, phytoplankton use sunlight and CO₂ to grow through photosynthesis.

Zooplankton, on the other hand, are tiny animals that mostly eat phytoplankton. They come in many shapes and sizes. If you put them in a lineup, you might think they came from different planets.

Across all this diversity, zooplankton have very different appetites.
The hungrier they are, they faster they eat.

Uneaten phytoplankton – and zooplankton poo – can sink to great depths, keeping carbon locked away from the atmosphere for centuries. Some even sink to the seafloor, eventually transforming into fossil fuels.

This transfer of carbon from the atmosphere to the ocean is known as the “biological pump”. It keeps hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon in the ocean and out of the atmosphere. That translates to about 400ppm CO₂ and 5°C of cooling!

Picky eaters

In our new research we wanted to better understand how zooplankton appetites influence the biological pump.

First we had to work out how zooplankton appetites differ across the ocean.

We used a computer model to simulate the seasonal cycle of phytoplankton population growth. This is based on the balance of reproduction and death. The model simulates reproduction really well.

Zooplankton appetites largely determine the death rate. But the model’s not so good at simulating death rates, because it doesn’t have enough information about zooplankton appetites.

So we tested dozens of different appetites and then checked our results against real-world data.

To get global observations of phytoplankton seasonal cycles without a fleet of ships, we used satellite data. This is possible even though phytoplankton are tiny, because their light-catching pigments are visible from space.

We ran the model in more than 30,000 locations and found zooplankton appetites vary enormously. That means all those different types of zooplankton are not spread evenly across the ocean. They appear to gather around their favourite types of prey.

In our latest research, we show how this diversity influences the biological pump.

We compared two models, one with just two types of zooplankton and another with an unlimited number of zooplankton – each with different appetites, all individually tuned to their unique environment.

We found including realistic zooplankton diversity reduced the strength of the biological pump by a billion tonnes of carbon every year. That’s bad for humanity, because most of the carbon that doesn’t go into the ocean ends up back in the atmosphere.

Not all of the carbon in the bodies of the phytoplankton would have sunk deep enough to be locked away from the atmosphere. But even if only a quarter did, once converted to CO₂ that could match annual emissions from the entire aviation industry.

The ocean as a sponge

Many ocean-based CO₂ removal technologies will alter the composition and abundance of phytoplankton.

Biological ocean-based CO₂ removal technologies such as “ocean iron fertilisation” seek to increase phytoplankton growth. It’s a bit like spreading fertiliser in your garden, but on a much bigger scale – with a fleet of ships seeding iron across the ocean.

The goal is to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and pump it into the deep ocean. However, because some phytoplankton crave iron more than others, feeding them iron could change the composition of the population.

Alternatively, non-biological ocean-based CO₂ removal technologies such as “ocean alkalinity enhancement” shift the chemical balance, allowing more CO₂ to dissolve in the water before it reaches chemical equilibrium. However, the most accessible sources of alkalinity are minerals including nutrients that encourage the growth of certain phytoplankton over others.

If these changes to phytoplankton favour different types of zooplankton with different sized appetites, they are likely to change the strength of the biological pump. This could compromise – or complement – the efficiency of ocean-based CO₂ removal technologies.

Moving forward from a sea of uncertainty

Emerging private-sector CO₂ removal companies will require accreditation from reliable carbon offset registries. This means they must demonstrate their technology can:

1. remove carbon for hundreds of years (permanence)
2. avoid major environmental impacts (safety)
3. be amenable to accurate monitoring (verification).

Cast against a sea of uncertainty, the time is now for oceanographers to establish the necessary standards.

Our research shows CO₂ removal technologies that change phytoplankton communities could also drive changes in carbon storage, by modifying zooplankton appetites. We need to better understand this before we can accurately predict how well these technologies will work and how we must monitor them.

This will require tremendous effort to overcome the challenges of observing, modelling and predicting zooplankton dynamics. But the payoff is huge. A more reliable regulatory framework could pave the way for a trillion dollar, morally imperative, emerging CO₂ removal industry.

Tyler Rohr receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the ICONIC Impact Ocean Co-Lab, which is managed by the National Philanthropic Trust. Tyler Rohr has previously consulted for carbon offset registry Isometric.

Ali Mashayek advises Puro Earth, a crediting platform for carbon removal, on feasibility and environmental impacts of the carbon removal methodologies. He receives research funding from UK Research and Innovation and US Office of Naval Research.

Sophie Meyjes receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council through the C-CLEAR Doctoral Training Partnership.

– ref. Marine CO₂ removal technologies could depend on the appetite of the ocean’s tiniest animals – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/227156

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Vlcek, Lecturer in inclusive education, RMIT University

We know children often miss more school days in the winter months, as sickness sets in.

But at this time of year, parents and teachers can also notice children disengaging from preferred activities and finding it more difficult to get through the day.

What are the signs a child may be burned out? And how can you help?

The winter months are tough

Burnout can happen at any time, but children are more likely to experience seasonal fatigue during winter, making burnout more likely.

Cold, wintry weather and shorter hours of sunlight have impacts on children, just like the rest of us.

At school, there is an increased likelihood of rainy day programs where children stay inside for most of the day. These changes limit opportunities for children to exert energy through a game of footy or racing friends onto the monkey bars.

Poor weather conditions also reduce opportunities to head to a playground after school or shoot some hoops in the driveway.

Classrooms are a breeding ground for illness and as children get more rundown, they are more likely to get sick.

Beyond the downsides of being unwell, when children are absent they are isolated from their peers. Children at school may also feel lonely when their friends are away.

It’s now also many months since the long summer break. So it is not surprising your child might might be running out of steam.

What is burnout?

Burnout is more than just feeling tired or wanting a break from regular activities. Burnout refers to a state of mental, physical and emotional exhaustion.

We know it can impact children as well as adults.

In children, we see signs of burnout in the way they approach previously enjoyed activities and relationships.

In the short term we see more school refusal, sleeping a lot more or finding it difficult to get to sleep, increases in appetite or eating a lot less, coming home excessively tired, being less interested in talking about their day, or having more arguments with friends.

We also see children try to avoid attending extracurricular activities or family events they typically enjoy.

There are long-term impacts

But the long-term impacts of unsupported burnout are even more damaging.

Research shows that prolonged feelings of stress and exhaustion in children can lead to disengagement from learning activities, and school avoidance.

When fatigue and anxiousness last for more than a few days, we can also see children not want to socialise with peers, which in turn can lead to social problems and further isolation.

Without proactive supports, research shows being burned out can lead to ongoing reductions in physical fitness, attention span and working memory (where we hold short-term information).

What can parents do?

Parents should be on high alert for signs of burnout at this stage of the term. There are lots of ways you could support your child, including:

• give your child a wellbeing break away from school for a day or two to reset and recharge

• take a short pause on extracurricular activities and reevaluate the necessity of other regular commitments. Is your child doing too much?

• organise some special family time, such as watching a show together or playing a board game (homework tasks can wait)

• speak to your child about how it is OK to reach out to you or other trusted adults if they are finding things more difficult than usual.

If your child isn’t bouncing back to their usual self within a few days, talk to your child’s teacher and see what they are noticing. Teachers will have insights into any changes in the classroom routine that might be influencing your child’s mood or behaviour.

If you remain concerned, make an appointment with their GP or paediatrician to discuss what you are noticing and investigate ways to help.

What can teachers do?

Teachers can also help their students through the gloomy winter months. No doubt, they too will need to recharge their own energy levels, almost halfway into the year.

Teachers could focus more on wellbeing than education concepts. This could include “gentle afternoons” with mindfulness activities, yoga sessions or a focus on physical and cognitive games.

There is no perfect recipe for how long these strategies are needed – parents and teachers know their children best, and can evaluate the situation and find the most appropriate path forward.

The goal is to reduce the likelihood of children being burned out, and ensure they can be in the best frame of mind to enjoy school, their lessons and their friends.

Samantha Vlcek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is your child experiencing ‘winter burnout’? Here’s what to look out for – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231830

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Supporters of Yang Hengjun, the Australian citizen incarcerated in China, have urged Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to ask Chinese Premier Li Qiang to have the ailing author released “on medical parole” or otherwise transferred to Australia.

Ahead of the Albanese-Li meeting Monday in Canberra, Yang’s supporters said in a statement that his “medical conditions remain serious and unaddressed”.

Yang’s situation will be one of the contentious issues raised during a discussion between the leaders that is set to emphasise the positives in the relationship.

Li was feted on Sunday with a lunch at a winery near Adelaide attended by Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Trade Minister Don Farrell, and Agriculture Minister Murray Watt.

He also visited the Adelaide zoo, announcing the two Chinese pandas there, which have long been a major tourist attraction but are due to go home, will be replaced by another pair.

South Australia Premier Peter Malinauskas said the announcement was “a powerful gesture of the stabilisation of the Australia-China relationship”.

Read more:
China’s premier is about to visit Australia for the first time in 7 years – what can we expect?

On his arrival in Australia on Saturday, Li said in a statement released by the Chinese embassy that the China-Australia bilateral relationship was “back on track after a period of twists and turns”.

Albanese has flagged that in Monday’s talks he will raise issues causing difficulties between the two countries. These include recent incidents in which Australia’s military assets and personnel have been targeted with Chinese sonar and flares while they operated in international waters.

The Australian government is hoping the visit leads to the early lifting of restrictions on the export of Australian lobsters to China, although Farrell indicated he didn’t expect an immediate announcement. This is the last remaining Australian product to face barriers arising from Chinese retaliation against the former Coalition government.

Farrell told Sky News that restrictions had been lifted on almost $20 billion worth of trade since the Albanese government came to office.

In Canberra on Monday, Li will attend a state lunch and will also meet Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

After Canberra he will go to Western Australia, where he will visit a lithium processing plant.

At Monday’s lunch, Albanese will underline the importance of “ongoing dialogue” between the countries.

“Whatever the issue, it is always better if we deal direct with each other. And consistent, steady engagement helps build and maintain stability across our region,” the prime minister will say in remarks released ahead of delivery.

In their relations, Australia and China “must always be ready to engage with each other as mature nations.

“There is much that remains to be done, but it is clear that our nations are making progress in stabilising and rebuilding that crucial dialogue.”

While highlighting their common interests, Albanese will say, “We won’t always agree – and the points on which we disagree won’t simply disappear if we leave them in silence”.

“We share a responsibility to build and strengthen the foundation for talking through our differences and for building collaboration in areas where we do find mutual interest.

“Creating channels of dialogue and building understanding is how we make it possible for benefits to flow. Across business, trade and education. Climate and health. Culture and the arts.”

In their statement, Yang’s supporters said they had “no grounds for confidence that he is receiving adequate medical treatment”.

Earlier, Wong declined to discuss Yang’s medical condition, citing “privacy”.

Asked on the ABC whether she was aware he had been given appropriate medical treatment, wong said, “I’m obviously constrained for privacy reasons about what I’m going to say on a television interview.

“We will continue to advocate for Dr Yang wherever we are able, and we will continue to advocate, including for appropriate medical treatment.”

Yang’s supporters say he has waived privacy considerations.

Yang, who was born in China, is accused of spying, which he strongly denies. Earlier this year he was given the death penalty, although this would be commuted to life imprisonment after two years of good behaviour.

The Australian government has made repeated representations on his behalf, and said it was appalled at the February decision.

The statement from supporters said: “Dr Yang is innocent and his espionage conviction is spurious.

“Yang is an Australian political prisoner who has been sentenced to death because of his writings in support of individual freedoms, constitutional democracy and rule-of-law.

“Clearly, it is not possible to achieve a stable, respectful bilateral relationship with China while their officials are threatening to execute an Australian political prisoner, without any semblance of due legal process.”

There will be no opportunity for Australian journalists to ask Li questions during his visit.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Anthony Albanese to raise differences while stressing positives in talks with Chinese premier – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232569

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jaya Dantas, Deputy Chair, Academic Board; Dean International, Faculty of Health Sciences, and Professor of International Health, Curtin University

Earlier this week, Moderna announced positive results for its phase 3 clinical trial of a combined vaccine against COVID and influenza.

So what exactly did the trial find? And what sort of impact would a two-in-one COVID and flu vaccine have on public health? Let’s take a look.

Combination vaccines are already used for other diseases

Combination vaccines have been successfully used for several decades in Australia and around the world.

For example, the DTP vaccine, a shot that combines protection against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (whooping cough), was first administered in 1948.

The DTP vaccine has since been further combined to offer protection against other diseases. A hexavalent vaccine, which protects against six diseases – diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type b (an infection that can cause brain swelling) – is today part of routine childhood immunisation programs in Australia and elsewhere.

Another important combination vaccine is the MMR vaccine, given to children to protect against measles, mumps and rubella.

So what did the trial find?

Moderna’s phase 3 trial included roughly 8,000 participants across two age groups. Half were adults aged 50 to 64. The other half were aged 65 and up.

In both age groups, participants were randomised to either receive the combined vaccine (called mRNA-1083) or a control. The control groups received a COVID vaccine and a suitable flu vaccine delivered separately.

The control group in the 50-to-64 age category were given the Fluarix flu vaccine, as well as Moderna’s mRNA COVID vaccine, Spikevax. The over-65 control group received Spikevax alongside Fluzone HD, an enhanced flu vaccine designed specifically for older adults.

The study evaluated safety, including any reactions after vaccination, and the protective immune response the vaccines produced.

Moderna reported the combined vaccine elicited a higher immune response in both age groups against COVID and three influenza strains, compared to the co-administered shots.

From a safety perspective, the combined vaccine was well tolerated. Adverse reactions were similar across the experimental and control groups. The most common side effects included muscle aches, fatigue and pain at the injection site.

While the trial results are promising, they are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal, which means independent experts haven’t yet verified them. And further research may be required to test how the combined vaccine works in younger age groups.

What are the advantages of combined vaccines?

We cannot overstate the importance of vaccines. Each year they prevent up to 5 million deaths around the world from a range of life-threatening infections.

At the same time, we can always do more to boost vaccination uptake, especially in areas with fewer resources and among vulnerable populations.

Combination vaccines have a variety of advantages. For example, the need for fewer injections reduces costs for health systems, decreases storage requirements and reduces the burden on parents. All of these things can be especially valuable in low-income countries.

Notably, research shows combination vaccines make it more likely people will take up routine vaccinations.

Two important diseases

Every year, particularly during the winter months, millions of people contract respiratory infections. Indeed, parts of Australia are reported to be facing rapid increases in flu cases at the moment.

According to the World Health Organization, globally, roughly 3 million to 5 million people experience severe influenza annually, and around 650,000 people will die from the disease.

COVID has resulted in more than 7 million deaths around the world to date.

As the COVID pandemic has continued, we’ve seen pandemic fatigue setting in, as some people appear to have become complacent about their COVID shots. A 2023 study in Australia found 30% of the surveyed population were hesitant about and 9% were resistant to taking COVID boosters.

Uptake of the flu vaccine, which many people are in the habit of getting annually, may be higher. That said, in Australia the current flu vaccine rates for 2024 are still fairly low: 53% for adults over 65 years, 26% for those aged 50 to 65, and lower for younger age groups.

A two-in-one COVID and flu vaccine could be an important public health tool to increase vaccine coverage against these two important diseases. Beyond protecting individuals’ health, this would have flow-on benefits for the economy and our health system.

Moderna said it will present its trial data at an upcoming medical conference and submit it for publication. The company has also said it will soon apply for regulatory approval, with the possibility of supplying the combined vaccine in 2025.

At the same time, Pfizer and BioNTech also have late-stage trials in progress for a combined COVID and flu vaccine. We will await further developments with interest.

Professor Jaya Dantas is Dean International and Dean, Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Belonging in the Faculty of Health Sciences at Curtin University and Professor of International Health at Curtin School of Population Health. She is working on projects funded by Healthway, Lotterywest and DISER. She has lived experience of infectious diseases in India and Africa.

– ref. Results are looking promising for a combined COVID and flu vaccine. Here’s how it could benefit public health – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232278

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Irina Ponomareva, Adjunct Research Fellow in Griffith Center for Social and Cultural Research (GCSCR), Griffith University

Investigation of a sacred area at Avon Downs in Jangga Country, Central Queensland, has uncovered evidence of stone tool production in a place that was traditionally restricted to women.

We detail our findings in newly published research in collaboration with archaeological expert Liz Hatte and Jangga Elders Colin McLennan and Marie Wallace.

Our excavation of the layered sediments at Avon Downs reveals a long history of raw stone extraction and tool making. In the short period of our study, we recorded about 1,500 stone artefacts on the surface and under the ground.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg, as we expect more detailed evidence of tool production to be found beneath the site’s surface and in neighbouring areas.

By dating these artefacts, we have traced a 7,000-year history of continuous stone tool production by Aboriginal women – including objects traditionally associated with men. We are also the first team to ever date a sacred Aboriginal women’s area.

Hundreds of generations of tool making

Using a technique called optically stimulated luminescence, we measured the age of individual sand grains within the artefact-rich layers of the hill slope. We were then able to date the artefacts by association.

The uncovered artefacts varied in age from about 430 years ago (before the first Europeans arrived) to some 7,000 years ago. This implies the site was used for stone tool production and possibly as a sacred women’s area for hundreds of generations.

Jangga Elders Colin McLennan and Marie Wallace have a shared memory extending as far back as at least six generations. They understand the site has always been forbidden to men, as it continues to be today.

While some of the relevant sacred knowledge remains restricted, we can report Jangga women came to Gaio Nanhi Bura (women’s sacred place) to give birth and perform associated ceremonies until the turn of the 20th century.

Some of the stone tools were used in sacred ways, such as for cutting the umbilical cord of newborn babies, says Wallace. Drill points, ochre and a grinding stone and muller are further evidence of everyday tool making and decoration.

The rare discovery of an unfinished axe, ready to be ground and polished, is also somewhat surprising, as axe making is typically associated with male crafters.

The site remains a direct link between modern Jangga women and their ancestors. Today’s Jangga women who have visited and worked on the site describe feeling a strong sense of peace and belonging, as well as the presence of their ancestors.

Railway project disruptions

Like many other Aboriginal sites in Australia, the Avon Downs Women’s Area has faced threats. It sits in the way of the North Galilee Basin Rail Project, which stretches from the Carmichael coal mine to the port at Abbot Point.

Planning for this project started in 2012, prompting cultural heritage surveys, assessments and negotiations with Traditional Owners.

In 2014, the sacred area at Avon Downs was revealed following a survey and consultations with Jangga Elders. The artefacts themselves, which had been partially hidden by thick spinifex grass, were discovered in 2020 during cultural heritage monitoring before the clearance of native forest.

After extended negotiations with the Carmichael project representatives, and some news coverage of the archaeological discoveries, a solution was found.

For the benefit of future study, the site was conserved as a protected portion inside the rail corridor – but not without any loss. This portion is a fragmented piece of a much larger complex of camp sites and knapping floors (areas where stone tools were shaped) – but there is no longer free access between these individual sites.

So while the railway project will not run directly through, it has still compromised the integrity of the area.

Protecting sacred area

Sacred Aborignal women’s sites are often difficult to protect in their entirety. It can be challenging to demonstrate their cultural value when the associated knowledge is restricted to a few members of the Aboriginal community.

The protection of these sites has been hampered by past misunderstandings of Aboriginal cultures, as well as racism, sexism and misogyny.

Throughout Australia, there are only a handful of examples where Aboriginal women have chosen to disclose secret information to protect sacred women’s sites for future generations.

When explaining the importance of protecting and recording Jangga traditional knowledge and culture, Wallace emphasised the Jangga people’s belief that such sacred places can even be dangerous:

You are not supposed to touch anything, or take away something. They can make you sick.

Jangga people maintain the sanctity of these areas in their collective memory, providing a seamless connection between living memory and the dated sequence of sediments and artefacts.

And while their current cultural traditions in the Avon Downs Women’s Area can be traced back to several hundred years, we may be able to extend this to several thousand as more archaeological evidence becomes available.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We dated a sacred Aboriginal women’s site used for birthing ceremonies and discovered 7,000 years of tool making – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231717

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic University

Last night, millions of people will have tuned into Netflix and other streaming services to binge their favourite shows, including the (much anticipated) second part of Bridgerton season three.

Streaming services such as Netflix, Disney+, Stan and Prime Video have habituated us to the “all at once” series drop. And even as some services try to find ways to break the binge model, many commentators have bid farewell to the “the good old days” of appointment viewing.

Meanwhile, experts have highlighted the health concerns associated with “problematic bingeing”, including increased anxiety and depression.

But there’s an important detail missing in these conversations. And that is the fact that bingeing – the act of unrestrained and excessive indulgence – is nothing new. In fact, it exemplifies an age-old human desire to be completely immersed in story.

Far from being a new behaviour spawned by the digital age, bingeing is rooted in human history.

An ancient practice

Much like you might binge Baby Reindeer, Eric or The Walking Dead today, humans have always sought absorbing narrative experiences.

Before writing emerged, ancient oral storytelling captivated people across cultures, providing entertainment, knowledge transmission and cultural education.

Research published last year suggests Palawa Aboriginal stories from Tasmania can be traced back to events that happened 12,000 years ago, which means they may be among the oldest recorded oral stories in the world. Stories that survive hundreds of generations require constant telling and retelling.

This engagement with stories continued with the advent of written text. For millennia, large text collections has allowed immersive consumption, with examples ranging from the Panchatantra – a compilation of Indian fables dated to around 200BC – to volumes of William Shakespeare’s plays from the 1600s.

Historically, libraries, galleries and museums played a significant role in providing access to large collections of works, including books, as well as artworks and artefacts.

Eventually, the invention of the printing press revolutionised access to texts. Evidence suggests that by the 18th century, avid readers in England (that is, the upper class who could afford books) would devour novels in public or by candlelight – unable to stop until the story ended.

Literature researcher Ana Vogrinčič suggests a sort of “moral panic” emerged as the women of the time got a taste for reading:

reading in bed by the candlelight was believed to risk conflagration, while women laughing out loud over a certain scene or wobbling in emotions over another, in indecent body postures, regularly incited an offensive language, resulting in a heavily stigmatised and stereotyped image of a female novel-reader – a precursor of a modern coach potato. The reading sofa and the television couch certainly represent what 18th-century novel-reading and modern-day television-viewing seem to have in common.

Serialised literature became popular in the 19th century, with more and more writers releasing their work in instalments.

Eventually, the rise of cinema and television provided a new form of immersive storytelling. Access to home videos meant back-to-back viewing, while film screenings and double features mirrored older communal entertainment forms such as public readings and theatre attendances.

Hooked on a feeling

While bingeing has been around for as long as anyone can remember, the internet and streaming have both significantly increased our capacity for it. Perhaps this is why bingeing is framed as a modern phenomenon.

Creators must now design shows with the binge-watching model in mind, using cliffhangers, escapism and continuous arcs to encourage prolonged viewing. All of these factors (and more) combine to make a “bingeable” show.

As to why we love bingeing, this comes down to a complex interplay of emotions and brain chemistry.

Engaging with captivating stories triggers the release of dopamine, the neurotransmitter associated with pleasure, to create an addictive experience. At the same time, the human brain craves “closure”, which is something a compelling onscreen narrative will provide.

Shifting values

Bingeing today is often accompanied by feelings of guilt and unproductiveness. This seems to reflect, more than anything else, a shift in societal values regarding leisure time.

At some points in the past, prolonged engagement with stories would have been seen by certain groups as a valuable cultural activity – one that contributes to personal enrichment and social interaction.

For instance, the European Enlightenment movement of the 17th and 18th centuries encouraged people to develop a critical view of the world through as much self-education as possible. This approach to learning was thought to foster intellectual freedom and happiness, and often involved extensive engagement with written works.

Across time and cultures, humans have sought to escape reality and engage emotionally with stories. From ancient oral traditions, to modern streaming, our desire for continuous narrative consumption has remained constant.

Perhaps by recognising this historical precedent, we can come to appreciate our love of bingeing – and not feel so bad about it after all.

Darius von Guttner Sporzynski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Don’t feel bad about bingeing TV. Humans have binged stories for thousands of years – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231713

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Williams, Associate Professor, Griffith University, Griffith University

Many a government has spent generously to woo voters in election years. Some might even say recklessly.

But, even by that standard, the cash splashed this week by the Queensland Labor government under Premier Steven Miles is eye-watering – not just in dollar terms but also in the choices Treasurer Cameron Dick has made in the run-up to an October election few believe Labor can win.

In offering feel-good “sugar hits” that make the recent federal budget seem like diet cordial, Dick, in his fifth budget, has targeted the four biggest policy issues for voters in Queensland (and every other state and territory): cost of living, youth crime, housing and health.

That’s why he allocated an extra $1.28 billion for more police and to support victims of crime. It’s also why health had an almost unprecedented 10.6% funding increase – hospital ramping is a particularly sore point. Another A$3.1 billion was invested in the “Homes for Queenslanders” program, which offers rental support, while significantly raising the home value threshold before stamp duties are charged.

There’s also a $107 billion “Big Build” infrastructure program over four years to accommodate an exploding population, an issue both widely lamented and acutely felt in Brisbane.

But it’s the government’s cost-of-living relief package that has attracted the most attention and, arguably, the most scorn. By offering a weary electorate $1,000 cash-back on power bills (in addition to the federal government’s recently announced $300), 50 cent fares on all public transport, a 20% reduction in vehicle registrations and $200 vouchers to encourage children into sport – and by delivering a $564 million surplus for 2023-24 – Queensland Labor hopes it can buy a fourth term from financially struggling voters.

But will it really turn Labor’s electoral tide? Public opinion polls since Miles succeeded Annastacia Palaszczuk as premier last December suggest not. In the most recently published poll, a February-May Redbridge survey, Labor recorded a 28% primary vote – down 12 points since the 2020 election and only slightly higher than the Bligh Labor government received when decimated in 2012.

Redbridge pegged the Liberal-National Party’s primary vote at 47% – its highest in a decade – for a two-party-preferred split of 57 to 43%. That translates into a 10-point swing. It would mean Labor loses around 24 seats and the LNP easily forms majority government with up to 60 seats in the 93-seat Legislative Assembly.

Worryingly for Labor, the Redbridge data are consistent with earlier Resolve Strategic, YouGov and Newspoll surveys. All reported similar collapses in Labor’s vote since March.

In short, Queensland voters appear to have stopped listening to Miles and are now embracing the moderate, softly spoken LNP leader, David Crisafulli. In a February-May Resolve Strategic poll, he led Miles as preferred premier by 39 points to 28.

Crisafulli, however, is facing his own hurdles. Journalists and voters are demanding policy detail beyond the LNP’s “parenthood” statements about reducing crime. Crisafulli’s judgment is also being questioned for his early support for a Labor budget he had not even seen.

Nonetheless, there has been an unmistakable appetite for change in Queensland since early 2022, when the once-unassailable Palaszczuk government began its sharp descent amid accusations of compromised integrity and, later, of an allegedly “out of touch” and “red carpet” premier. It was that lost political capital underpinning a once-popular premier that, when burdened with cost-of-living and youth-crime crises, forced Palaszczuk from office in December 2023.

Why, then, will Queensland’s arguably most generous budget go unrewarded at the ballot box?

First, governments rarely receive post-budget public opinion bounces. While the Albanese government’s 2024 budget was reasonably well received, a June YouGov poll placed Labor’s primary vote three points lower than in the April survey. It seems voters simply expect governments to be good economic managers – and do not reward them for it.

Second, Miles’ goodies, designed to be delivered before the October 26 poll, will likely see any voter gratitude evaporate long before ballots are cast.

Third, while vehicle registration is almost universal, regular public transport users and first-home buyers are still a minority of voters.

Fourth, current inflation is “sticky”. Until Queensland voters see reductions in rents, home mortgage interest rates, grocery and fuel prices, a few budgetary treats will do little to mollify a financially stressed electorate.

Finally, the government has arguably overreached in its generosity and undermined its credibility as a responsible economic manager. In squandering last year’s $12.3 billion surplus – the largest ever recorded by a state, thanks to massively hiked coal royalties that have pumped $25 billion into state coffers in just two years – the ever-sceptical Queensland voter now appears plainly cynical in framing the budget as a desperate vote-buying exercise.

So will the budget at least improve Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s fortunes in Queensland? Almost certainly not.

Labor holds just five of Queensland’s 30 federal seats and is unlikely to win more anytime soon. Hemmed in by the deep conservatism of outer-suburban and regional Queensland, Labor, at the height of Albanese’s popularity in 2022, won no seats from the LNP yet lost one to the Greens.

Ultimately, Queenslanders appear to have cast their judgment on the Miles government. They will happily (but not gratefully) grab Labor’s cash, then stroll to the polls and vote LNP in a very decisive swing.

Paul Williams is affiliated with the TJ Ryan Foundation.

– ref. Queensland government splashes the cash around – but it’s unlikely to save it in the October election – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232259

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katharine Wallis, Professor of General Practice, The University of Queensland

Around one in seven Australians take antidepressants. The decision to start is often made in a time of crisis, with the thought they might help for a period and then be stopped. Most people don’t start antidepressants thinking they will take them for life.

Clinical guidelines recommend only six to 12 months antidepressant therapy for a single episode of moderate to severe depression.

However, about half of people taking antidepressants have been using them for longer than 12 months. People can experience unpleasant withdrawal symptoms when they attempt to stop antidepressants, which leads to them restarting or continuing antidepressants.

A recent Lancet systematic review found around one in six to seven people experienced withdrawal symptoms when stopping antidepressants. This is likely to be an underestimate, as most people included in the studies had been taking antidepressants for only a few months.

What did the researchers find?

The Lancet review, which included 79 studies and 21,000 people, found 15% of antidepressant users experienced withdrawal symptoms after they stopped taking the drug. Common symptoms included dizziness, headache, nausea, insomnia and irritability.

Withdrawal symptoms are more common in people who have been taking antidepressants for a long time. But the Lancet study mainly included people taking antidepressants for only a short time – mostly for around three to six months but sometimes for as little as one week.

So the finding that one in six people who stop taking antidepressants experience withdrawal symptoms is likely an underestimate; this figure applies only to a small subset of people who have taken antidepressants.

The Lancet review also found around 3% of people experienced severe withdrawal symptoms, including thoughts of suicide. Again this is likely to be an underestimate, as it didn’t include longer-term users who are more likely to experience withdrawal symptoms and experience more severe withdrawal symptoms.

Working out what’s actually causing symptoms

Some people continue taking antidepressants long-term in the belief that they are treating or preventing anxiety or depressive symptoms, but since many of the symptoms are similar they may only be treating or preventing withdrawal symptoms

Yet long-term use (longer than 12 months) of antidepressants is not harmless. Taking antidepressants for longer than 12 months can cause:

• emotional numbing
• sexual dysfunction, which may be long-lasting, including low libido and difficulty achieving orgasm in both men and women
• weight gain
• lethargy or fatigue
• increased risk of falls among older people.

Low awareness and recognition of withdrawal symptoms has resulted in both doctors and patients misinterpreting withdrawal symptoms as a “relapse” of anxiety or depression and ongoing need for medication.

The confusion is easy to understand as some of the symptoms of withdrawal are also symptoms of anxiety and/or depression.

Symptoms of withdrawal include nervousness, irritability, insomnia, fatigue and agitation.

Symptoms of anxiety include “feeling nervous, anxious or on edge” and “becoming easily annoyed or irritated”.

Symptoms of depression include “trouble falling or staying asleep”, “feeling tired or having little energy” and “being fidgety or restless”.

But it is possible to distinguish withdrawal from relapse. In addition to feeling anxious and irritable, people going through withdrawal may also experience:

• dizziness, vertigo (sensation of spinning) or light-headedness
• electric shock sensations (brain zaps)
• imbalance
• increased sensitivity to light or noise
• tinnitus
• nausea, diarrhoea or upset stomach
• muscle spasms or cramps
• vivid dreams or nightmares
• tremors
• confusion
• sweating.

How did people used to stop antidepressants?

Until recently, information on how to minimise withdrawal symptoms to enable people to safely stop antidepressants has been limited.

Previous advice was often to halve the dose, halve again and then stop; or to take antidepressants on alternate days; or to switch to a different antidepressant.

But while well-intended, these methods have likely resulted in withdrawal symptoms.

Withdrawal symptoms tend to start within hours, days or sometimes weeks of stopping or decreasing antidepressant dose and can last weeks or longer.

So how can I safely stop?

Brain imaging techniques support a slow tapering of antidepressant drug dose to give a steady change in the brain to minimise withdrawal symptoms.

“Hyperbolic tapering” uses increasingly smaller decreases in drug doses. For example, a tapering schedule of 50mg, 25mg, 15mg, 10mg, 6mg, 4mg, 2mg, 1mg, then 0mg (stop) gives a steady change in the brain.

A slow and hyperbolic decrease of drug dose can minimise withdrawal symptoms, giving the brain time to adjust to being without antidepressants and safely stop.

Updated clinical guidelines now recommend this approach of hyperbolic slow tapering off antidepressants.

At the University of Queensland, we are conducting a randomised controlled trial in general practice testing the effectiveness of antidepressant drug specific hyperbolic tapering schedules developed to support people to safely stop antidepressants.

The antidepressant mini-doses required for tapering are not readily available in Australia. But people can access antidepressant mini doses via a compounding chemist (or for some antidepressants, by crushing a tablet and mixing with water or diluting a liquid formulation, in consultation with your doctor).

If you’re thinking about coming off antidepressants, talk to your doctor, who can support and monitor you through the process of safely stopping.

Katharine Wallis receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Medical Research Future Fund. She is employed by the University of Queensland.

– ref. Many people get withdrawal symptoms when they try to stop antidepressants. So how can you safely stop? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231822

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sasha Grishin, Adjunct Professor of Art History, Australian National University

There have been many exhibitions of ancient Egyptian art held in Australia. Pharaoh, at the National Gallery of Victoria, is outstanding for its scope, scale and presentation.

It is the greatest exhibition of ancient Egyptian art we have ever seen in Australia.

The exhibition comes from the British Museum, holder of the largest and most comprehensive collection of Egyptian antiquities outside the Egyptian Museum in Cairo. Over 500 items have been selected, including monumental sculptures, tomb and temple architecture, coffins, papyri, funerary objects and an extensive display of jewellery.

Numerically, this is the largest (and heaviest) touring exhibition ever mounted by the British Museum and it is the largest exhibition of ancient Egyptian art ever shown in Australia. The effective dramatic display, designed by Peter King who treats the whole space as a cycle from dawn to dusk, occupies all of the major downstairs exhibition spaces at NGV International.

The functionality of art

For a civilisation that left such a huge artistic heritage, it is sobering to remember the ancient Egyptian language had no word for “art”.

Art was something functional that gave permanence to the objects of this world, so they could continue to serve their owners in the next life. Much of the surviving ancient Egyptian art is tomb art, designed to withstand the test of time and to preserve in an idealised form the beauty of balance, order and harmony, while celebrating the absolute power of the pharaoh.

What is it about ancient Egyptian art that holds us spellbound? In part, it is the sense of sublime beauty, its permanence, with forms seemingly unchanging over millennia, its antiquity and its state of preservation. More than anything else it is the fact that it is permeated by a sense of magic, somehow meant to overcome the forces of death.

When a person died, they were mummified and engaged in a ritual involving an interaction with the “ka” (life force) and the “ba” (human essence). They were surrounded by what we could think of as art objects that involved magic spells, magic amulets and protective deities.

What struck me about this exhibition was this sense of spirituality – the mystical otherness. We are presented with a variety of beautiful objects across seven thematic categories. Each section, in a way, comments on the role of the pharaoh in Egyptian life.

The elaborate and the intimate

In an exhibition of this nature, there are a number of memorable objects: the granodiorite Head of a colossal statue, probably King Amenemhat III; the life-size sandstone seated Statue of Pharaoh Sety II wearing emblems marking his royal status; the monumental red granite Statue of a lion erected by Pharaoh Amenhotep III, reinscribed by Pharaoh Tutankhamun; the limestone Statue of future Pharaoh Horemheb and his wife; the huge painted limestone Relief showing King Mentuhotep II wearing the red crown; and the imposing monumental limestone sculpture of the Statue of Ramses II as a high-priest.

All of these are huge works with a dominating presence, a marked frontality and a sense of permanence.

What intrigued me were some of the more intimate, immensely elaborate jewellery-like pieces that served as seals, rings, plaques, amulets, pendants, beads and earrings.

These include: the ornament of a winged Scarab holding a sun-disc, depicting the throne name of King Senusret II with its pieces of lapis lazuli; the faience Throwstick of Pharaoh Akhenaten – an ancient Egyptian boomerang; Girdle with amulets, beads and pendants made of electrum, silver, lapis lazuli, feldspar, amethyst, cornelian, glass; and the Ornament with a bull’s head on a gold mount decorated with uraei and lotus flowers made of gold with the bull’s head carved into a piece of lapis lazuli.

While one may be seduced by the ornamental design, the exquisite craftsmanship and precious materials, there is also something ethereal about these objects of beauty.

They were intended to ward off evil spirits and beg for their owner’s smooth transition into eternal life, where the person could experience life in their present form but free of pain, illness or hardship.

3,000 years of art

The Book of the Dead (more accurately translated as the “Book of Coming Forth by Day”) was a collection of magic spells intended to assist a deceased person’s journey through the underworld. The texts were prepared for a specific person and speak of the needs of a particular individual.

Since I was a child, I loved reading this book as it was the voice of an ancient Egyptian speaking directly to me.

One passage reads:

There is no sin in my body. I have not spoken that which is not true knowingly, nor have I done anything with a false heart. Grant you that I may be like to those favoured ones who are in your following, and that I may be an Osiris greatly favoured of the beautiful god.

This beautiful and significant exhibition traces the art of ancient Egypt for 3,000 years from the unification of Upper and Lower Egypt and the beginnings of the Old Kingdom with the development of hieroglyphs, in about 3000 BCE, through to the Roman conquest.

A solemn divine majesty runs throughout this exhibition as it celebrates the eternal and magical power of art.

Pharaoh is at the National Gallery of Victoria until October 6.

Sasha Grishin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Pharaoh at the NGV is the greatest exhibition of ancient Egyptian art ever seen in Australia – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/226825

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Woolley, PhD Candidate in Criminology, Deakin University

It’s relatively common for perpetrators of family violence to threaten suicide to control a victim-survivor’s actions. A study by the Australian Institute of Criminology suggests 39% of women who experience coercive control are subject to perpetrators’ threats of self-harm.

Suicide threats can be related to mental health issues, a tactic of family violence, or sometimes both. As a result, victim-survivors may feel pressured to remain in an abusive relationship.

Men who kill their partners are 2,000 times more likely to experience suicidal ideation than the general population. For example, the man who killed Hannah Clarke and her children had threatened suicide multiple times in the lead-up to their murders.

It can then be tricky for police responding to these situations. Victoria Police officers who participated in my recently published research were concerned that when they prioritise suicide prevention over responding to family violence, victim-survivors are sometimes left without protection.

Read more:
Perpetrators of family violence sometimes use threats of suicide to control their partner

What’s standard police protocol?

The intersection between mental health and family violence is a challenging area for both the legal and health systems, with a variety of laws surrounding both. These laws also differ between states and territories.

In Victoria, police have two main avenues to respond to perpetrator suicide threats: mental health legislation and family violence legislation.

Under mental health laws, police can put someone under the care of a hospital or health practitioners to prevent them harming themselves or others.

Meanwhile, suicide threats can be a form of family violence and coercive control. Police can issue a family violence safety notice to the perpetrator. A notice sets conditions to prevent family violence and protect the victim-survivor. For example, standard conditions of a safety notice include not to commit family violence towards a victim-survivor, or expose a child to family violence. If any conditions are broken, police can charge the perpetrator with a criminal offence with a maximum penalty of two years in prison.

Depending on how receptive a perpetrator is to a safety notice, it may stop them committing further abuse towards the victim-survivor, as well as promote accountability.

In Victoria, there are no formal processes that tell police how to address family violence incidents where the perpetrator has threatened suicide. Police are therefore required to decide how to address the matter based on their experience and knowledge.

In Australia, Queensland is the only state that has publicly available guidance on police addressing perpetrator suicide threats. This framework focuses on managing immediate risk and referral pathways.

Unintended consequences

All ten police officers who participated in my study specialised in family violence. They all indicated suicide threats were a commonly-used tactic of coercive control.

Most participants said when they attend a family violence incident where a perpetrator has threatened suicide, they are likely to address the perpetrator’s mental health as their priority. The perpetrator often then goes to hospital for assessment and treatment, when required.

When a person is under the care of a hospital, police cannot issue a family violence safety notice. Police can request notification from a hospital of when a person is released if they are a risk to others. However, this does not always happen, according to police.

As a result, the perpetrator may be released from hospital without a safety notice in place. Therefore, they may commit some forms of family violence towards a victim-survivor without consequence, if their actions are not criminalised by other law.

The victim-survivor may then be at increased risk of family violence and the perpetrator could avoid accountability. Several officers indicated there have been instances in which perpetrators have been released into the community without an order in place, making this a real risk to victim-survivors.

Learning to balance the risks

Some police stations are developing processes to change the way they address perpetrator suicide threats. One of the participants suggested family violence safety notices should be issued first, before hospitalising a perpetrator.

Improvements within policing could prevent further violence from occurring. A nuanced approach is needed to train police to balance the mental health needs of perpetrators, as well as the safety of victim-survivors and the community at large.

However, the gap in service provision cannot be addressed by police alone.

There is limited information exchange between hospitals and police in some circumstances. We need further communication and collaboration to ensure police can issue safety notices when needed.

Regardless of whether a suicide threat is because of mental health issues, they can be weaponised by perpetrators of family violence. Change is needed to ensure victim-survivors are protected and perpetrators are held accountable.

It is important we continue to research and learn about how family violence and mental health interact, for both perpetrators and victim-survivors. As a result, we can more effectively move towards ending family violence.

Jessica Woolley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Suicide threats are a weapon of family violence. How can police balance mental health needs with protecting victims? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231594

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Baker, Professor of Public Health, University of Otago

The international community’s recent failure to conclude a global pandemic agreement leaves large gaps in our capacity to deal with the next major infectious disease emergency.

The risk of another pandemic like COVID – the worst in a century – is increasing.

The World Health Organization (WHO) took an important step by adopting useful revisions to the existing legally-binding International Health Regulations.

But while this advance is something to celebrate, it is not enough. Even if governments approve the revised regulations, our best chance of preventing history repeating itself lies in a pandemic agreement.

Global responses to health hazards that cross borders date back to an international sanitary conference in 1851 which focused on measures to limit the spread of cholera. Since then, several initiatives have aimed to improve global health security, including the formation of the WHO itself in 1946.

The International Health Regulations of 2005 were a major step in this evolution. They ushered in the modern era of risk assessment and created a global surveillance system for public health emergencies of international concern.

Nonetheless, it was soon evident the new tools were limited in dealing with the increasingly complex and fast moving threat of zoonotic diseases (when an animal pathogen “spills over” to infect people).

Key changes to the International Health Regulations

Earlier this month, the 194 members of the WHO World Health Assembly passed by consensus several important amendments to the International Health Regulations, including:

• adding a definition of a “pandemic emergency” to emphasise the importance of such events within the broader category of public health emergencies of international concern

• increasing the focus on prevention with specific mention of “preparedness”

• strengthening equitable access to medical products and finance, with specific mention of “equity and solidarity”, and a dedicated “coordinating financial mechanism”

• requiring each state to establish a “national authority” to improve the implementation of the international health regulations within and among countries

• requiring countries to build a core capacity for “risk communication including addressing misinformation and disinformation”

• and modifying the “decision instrument” to enhance the detection of emerging respiratory infections with high pandemic potential.

The proposals that didn’t make it

Not all proposed amendment were achieved. Some commentators had advocated to incorporate the experience of countries in the Asia-Pacific region that used an elimination strategy to delay the spread of COVID, giving time to roll out vaccines and other interventions.

Such measures protected both high-income islands (Aotearoa New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, Taiwan) as well as low and middle-income countries in continental Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia).

These nations generally achieved lower excess mortality than countries where the pandemic was less controlled. Similarly, the concept of elimination at source (sometimes called containment) wasn’t included in this revision.

A range of other potential improvements also failed to make it into the final text. These included an emphasis on preventing zoonotic spillovers from animals, enhanced sharing of scientific data and specimens, and strengthened accountability.

All WHO member states now have 18 months to consider the proposed revisions. They may enter reservations to parts they disagree with, even though this may weaken the coherence of the proposed amendments.

Why we need greater global cooperation

A pandemic agreement could address the many needed reforms that go beyond the International Health Regulations.

But the negotiations to reach global agreement are proving contentious. There have been deep divisions between rich and poorer countries over the sharing and affordable pricing of vaccines, treatments and diagnostics for developing states. The sharing of pathogen data has also proven problematic.

The negotiations have been further undermined by completely unfounded assertions that the WHO will be given power to impose restrictive measures such as lockdowns and vaccine mandates. It is not clear whether New Zealand’s changed negotiating position to focus more on national sovereignty influenced these discussions.

Due to these challenges, the international community has not yet agreed on a text for a pandemic agreement. The WHO has announced the next steps for further negotiations, which are already years past their start date.

From the threats of war to environmental devastation and pandemics, no country can unilaterally protect its citizens from the gravest shared threats to humanity. But while the need for global solidarity and cooperation is greater than ever, support for many of the key areas of international law is failing.

We owe it to the memory of the more than 27 million people estimated to have died so far from COVID, and the rising threats to future generations, to do the best we can to achieve a safer and more secure world.

The University of Otago receives funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand, the New Zealand Ministry of Health, and Te Niwha to support some of Michael Baker’s research on COVID-19 and other infectious diseases.

Alexander Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Despite improved WHO regulations, the world remains ill-prepared for the next pandemic – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231586

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Weigand, Professor of Architecture and Interior Design and Interim Dean, College of Creative Arts, Miami University

It took a global pandemic to convince American businesses that their employees could work productively from home, or a favorite coffee shop. Post-COVID-19, employers are struggling to find the right balance of in-office and remote work. However, hybrid work is likely here to stay, at least for a segment of workers.

This shift isn’t just changing lifestyles – it’s also affecting commercial spaces. Office vacancy rates post-COVID-19 shot up almost overnight, and they remain near 20% nationwide, the highest rate since 1979 as tenants downsize in place or relocate. This workspace surplus is putting pressure on existing development loans and leading to defaults or creative refinancing in a market already plagued by higher interest rates.

Office tenants with deeper pockets have gravitated to newer and larger buildings with more amenities, often referred to as Class A or “trophy” buildings. Older Class B and C buildings, which often have fewer amenities or less-desirable locations, have struggled to fill space.

High vacancy rates are forcing developers to get creative. With reduced demand for older buildings, along with housing shortages in many American cities, some downtown buildings are being converted to residential use.

These projects often include some percentage of affordable housing, underwritten by tax incentives. In October 2023, the Biden administration released a list of federal loan, grant, tax credit and technical assistance programs that can support commercial-to-residential conversions.

As an architect, I’m encouraged to see these renovations of older commercial buildings, which are more economical and sustainable than new construction. In my view, they are fundamentally changing the character of our cities for the better. Even though only about 20% to 30% of older buildings can be profitably converted, architects and developers are quickly learning how to grade these structures to identify good candidates.

From workplace to living space

Converting commercial buildings to apartments didn’t start with the pandemic. In the decade leading up to the outbreak of COVID-19, developers converted more than 110,000 apartments from outdated hotels, office buildings, factories, warehouses and other buildings across the U.S. According to industry data, more than 58,000 apartments are currently being converted from office buildings.

Several characteristics of older Class B and C buildings make conversion particularly attractive. These buildings typically have smaller floor plates – total square footage of space per floor. Importantly, they also have shorter “core-to-shell” distances – the distance from the building core that contains stairs and elevators to the window wall.

Residential building codes generally require that natural light reach most rooms. Since living spaces, bedrooms and bathrooms are often separated by walls, a smaller core-to-shell distance allows more rooms to access natural light, making the conversion easier.

In contrast, typical new office buildings have larger floor plates and core-to-shell distances that sometimes can exceed 50 feet. This makes them more difficult to convert to residences.

But it’s not impossible. One creative solution involves moving the window wall inward by several feet to create outdoor decks. That’s an appealing amenity, but also an extra cost. In some conversions where the core-to-shell depth is greater than needed, developers have added interior vertical shafts or window wells to bring daylight to interior spaces.

Many older commercial buildings also offer higher ceilings, which are especially desirable in the residential market. Apartments and condos typically don’t need to conceal mechanical and electrical services with suspended acoustic tile ceilings, as offices do, so they can provide 12 feet or more of clear ceiling height.

Some older buildings, including many made of brick or stone, have large windows, which also are desirable in residential use. Conversely, smaller windows or higher sill heights may be disincentives to conversion.

Many older buildings were constructed before air conditioning was widely available, so they have operable windows. This is yet another plus for residential conversion, since occupants typically desire natural ventilation in their dwelling unit.

Obstacles to conversion

Some characteristics of older buildings can make residential conversion more difficult. For example, location always matters. Buildings that are far from other amenities, such as restaurants or grocery stores, may be less desirable.

Buildings with more unusual floor plates or geometric forms that work for office use may be difficult to carve up into residential units. Older structures that contain asbestos or lead paint can require expensive remediation.

Zoning laws may bar residential use or otherwise limit what can be done with a building. Cities can play an important role in encouraging residential conversions by revisiting zoning codes or offering tax incentives to developers.

One of the biggest costs of a residential conversion is the need to replace building systems such as plumbing and heating. Plumbing requirements in commercial office spaces, for example, are largely met with restroom facilities in the building core. Apartments or condos each require their own bathroom and kitchen, adding significant cost.

A return to ‘walkable cities’

Despite these challenges, if residential conversions bring people and energy back to downtowns outside of the workday, stores, restaurants, entertainment and other amenities of a vibrant lifestyle will follow.

Architects, planners, developers and politicians are increasingly interested in “walkable cities” or “20-minute cities.” Both of these concepts allude to providing necessary amenities like grocery stores, schools and restaurants that are accessible to residents on foot, reducing the need to own a car and promoting a more sustainable lifestyle.

Walkable cities aren’t a new idea. Throughout the 19th century, people in U.S. cities like New York and Chicago lived, worked, shopped and socialized within mixed-use neighborhoods.

The growth of car ownership post-World War II separated these uses into residential suburbs, office parks, shopping malls and cineplexes. Many critics view suburbanization as a failed experiment that has promoted sprawling development, reliance on cars and economic inequality

As more downtown office buildings are converted to residential use, many of them are likely to house restaurants, day care facilities, grocery stores and other service businesses, typically on their ground floors. These amenities contribute to the financial success of a project and to the vibrant lifestyles of its residents.

All of these shifts prompt questions. Can architects and developers find ways to design buildings that serve multiple uses over several centuries, rather than a single targeted use that becomes obsolete in 100 years? Can mid- and high-rise buildings be envisioned as flexible structural grids, with lower-cost and easily changeable modular inserts? Such structures could accommodate ever-changing needs, some of which we may not yet know will be critical to the urban infrastructure.

Architects, planners and developers are beginning to explore these questions. Converting downtown offices to residential use could be just the starting point. And it’s a reminder that dynamic cities can reinvent themselves in response to challenges.

John Weigand does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Cities with empty commercial space and housing shortages are converting office buildings into apartments – here’s what they’re learning – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/226459

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In his assault this week on the Albanese government’s climate policy, Peter Dutton is taking the Liberals right back to Tony Abbott’s days.

It’s a bold, risky big-target strategy, characterised by a truck load of negativity, as well as laced with a dash of policy adventurism.

Former chief scientist Ian Lowe, in an article in the Guardian, declared, “Given community attitudes, it looks like the silliest political death wish in recent history”.

But some in Labor quickly identified it as a Dutton “two-stage” strategy. Run hard at the suburban seats, where people are heavily under the financial pump. Abandon the teal seats for the moment. Try to force Anthony Albanese into minority government. Then hope in the next term to exploit whatever instability might arise.

That was the path that took Abbott – like Dutton, an unlikely Liberal leader – to government. Of course Dutton would have to hang onto the leadership through a second term in opposition (made a bit easier by not having Josh Frydenberg around).

Dutton’s climate strategy relies on tapping into two major current grievances: the cost-of-living pain and the resistance in many communities to the rollout of renewable energy infrastructure.

As opposition leader, Abbott labelled Labor’s carbon pollution reduction scheme as a “great big new tax on everything”.

Dutton has an update on an old theme, attacking the Albanese government’s 43% 2030 emissions reduction target – Australia’s pledge under the Paris climate agreement – as set to “destroy the economy”.

Abbott’s campaign yielded a political return for him, at a substantial cost for energy policy in Australia. But times have moved on in this never-ending climate debate, and Dutton’s climate policy-walk is through quicksand.

A pointed question was asked this week, at an Albanese news conference. Given cost of living was the top issue for people, did Australians want another election fought on climate change?

Probably not. To bring off his gamble, Dutton will need to convince voters Australia’s climate targets are harming them via their energy bills. Moreover, he’ll need to persuade them the energy transition can be safely slowed, and that nuclear power is credible and desirable.

That’s a big selling task. And so far, the opposition has embarked on it with extraordinary sloppiness.

Months ago, it flagged it would release its nuclear power policy before the budget. Then that was put off.

Initially, its nuclear option focused on small modular reactors. Then it switched to larger reactors, to be located on or near coal-fired power stations as they retire.

In an interview with last weekend’s Australian newspaper Dutton declared the 2030 target was unachievable. But he did not indicate whether a Coalition government would stay in the Paris agreement. Shadow Energy Minister Ted O’Brien had to clean up, saying a Dutton government would not seek to exit Paris.

Such untidiness is a feature of the Dutton opposition, typically opening it to attack by its opponents and leaving the public confused.

Political research will sit behind Dutton’s lines. When we look at the public research, the recently-released Lowy Institute 2024 poll shows a complex picture.

In that poll, 57% said global warming was a serious and pressing problem about which “we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs”. Only 30% said the problem should be addressed “but its effects will be gradual so we can deal with the problem gradually by taking steps that are low in cost”.

There were age and political differences. The young are more galvanised than the old by the warming
threat, as are Labor supporters compared to Coalition supporters.

Beyond the generalised attitudes, the trends on the related issue of energy are very relevant. Some 48% say reducing household energy bills should be the main priority for the government’s energy policy. This is a 16 point increase from 2021. Those who say reducing carbon emissions should be the main priority have fallen 18 points to 37%.

The results show how altered circumstances over time do change people’s priorities (and of course these can change back).

The Dutton strategy is a back-end loaded policy, with less effort now (kicking much of the problem into the long grass) and relying on nuclear power after 2040 for a sprint to net zero 2050, a target Dutton says the Coalition still supports. Progress to 2050 doesn’t have to be linear, he says.

The government’s argument is that the energy transition, albeit difficult, is urgent and progress must be cumulative; trashing our 2030 target will undermine both investor confidence and Australia’s international reputation.

Dutton says he won’t announce what targets a Coalition government would have until after the election. Clearly such targets, if they ever materialised, would be less than Labor’s.

This position would lose the Coalition some votes. Dutton would be relying on other voters not being too fussed about his lack of targets. That would allow him to concentrate on attacking not just the government’s current 2030 target but the 2035 target it has to lodge under the Paris agreement early next year.

The government is potentially more vulnerable in the debate over the 2035 target than in the current row over the 2030 one.

The Climate Change Authority makes a recommendation by October to Energy Minister Chris Bowen on what the 2035 target should be. In its discussion paper, the authority has floated a range of 65–75% emissions reduction on 2005 levels. The authority believes this “could be achievable and sustainable if additional action is taken by governments, business, investors and households to achieve it”.

That would be a substantial lift in ambition from the 2030 target of 43% reduction, especially given there is dispute about whether that can be reached.

The government doesn’t have to accept the authority’s recommendation if it decided it was too high. But if it rejected it, it would open itself to an onslaught from the Greens.

As for the Greens, they are saying if a Dutton government tried to backtrack on the current 2030 target, it would breach the legislation the Albanese government passed to enshrine the target. (That could open a Coalition government to legal action, assuming it could not repeal the legislation.)

In practice, despite what Dutton says about returning to government in one term, under a two-term strategy he would not anticipate having to face that problem any time soon. The early herculean challenge Dutton does face is selling nuclear power to voters.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: the spectre of Abbott looms behind Dutton’s climate strategy – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-spectre-of-abbott-looms-behind-duttons-climate-strategy-232380

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In his assault this week on the Albanese government’s climate policy, Peter Dutton is taking the Liberals right back to Tony Abbott’s days.

It’s a bold, risky big-target strategy, characterised by a truck load of negativity, as well as laced with a dash of policy adventurism.

Former chief scientist Ian Lowe, in an article in the Guardian, declared, “Given community attitudes, it looks like the silliest political death wish in recent history”.

But some in Labor quickly identified it as a Dutton “two-stage” strategy. Run hard at the suburban seats, where people are heavily under the financial pump. Abandon the teal seats for the moment. Try to force Anthony Albanese into minority government. Then hope in the next term to exploit whatever instability might arise.

That was the path that took Abbott – like Dutton, an unlikely Liberal leader – to government. Of course Dutton would have to hang onto the leadership through a second term in opposition (made a bit easier by not having Josh Frydenberg around).

Dutton’s climate strategy relies on tapping into two major current grievances: the cost-of-living pain and the resistance in many communities to the rollout of renewable energy infrastructure.

As opposition leader, Abbott labelled Labor’s carbon pollution reduction scheme as a “great big new tax on everything”.

Dutton has an update on an old theme, attacking the Albanese government’s 43% 2030 emissions reduction target – Australia’s pledge under the Paris climate agreement – as set to “destroy the economy”.

Abbott’s campaign yielded a political return for him, at a substantial cost for energy policy in Australia. But times have moved on in this never-ending climate debate, and Dutton’s climate policy-walk is through quicksand.

A pointed question was asked this week, at an Albanese news conference. Given cost of living was the top issue for people, did Australians want another election fought on climate change?

Probably not. To bring off his gamble, Dutton will need to convince voters Australia’s climate targets are harming them via their energy bills. Moreover, he’ll need to persuade them the energy transition can be safely slowed, and that nuclear power is credible and desirable.

That’s a big selling task. And so far, the opposition has embarked on it with extraordinary sloppiness.

Months ago, it flagged it would release its nuclear power policy before the budget. Then that was put off.

Initially, its nuclear option focused on small modular reactors. Then it switched to larger reactors, to be located on or near coal-fired power stations as they retire.

In an interview with last weekend’s Australian newspaper Dutton declared the 2030 target was unachievable. But he did not indicate whether a Coalition government would stay in the Paris agreement. Shadow Energy Minister Ted O’Brien had to clean up, saying a Dutton government would not seek to exit Paris.

Such untidiness is a feature of the Dutton opposition, typically opening it to attack by its opponents and leaving the public confused.

Political research will sit behind Dutton’s lines. When we look at the public research, the recently-released Lowy Institute 2024 poll shows a complex picture.

In that poll, 57% said global warming was a serious and pressing problem about which “we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs”. Only 30% said the problem should be addressed “but its effects will be gradual so we can deal with the problem gradually by taking steps that are low in cost”.

There were age and political differences. The young are more galvanised than the old by the warming
threat, as are Labor supporters compared to Coalition supporters.

Beyond the generalised attitudes, the trends on the related issue of energy are very relevant. Some 48% say reducing household energy bills should be the main priority for the government’s energy policy. This is a 16 point increase from 2021. Those who say reducing carbon emissions should be the main priority have fallen 18 points to 37%.

The results show how altered circumstances over time do change people’s priorities (and of course these can change back).

The Dutton strategy is a back-end loaded policy, with less effort now (kicking much of the problem into the long grass) and relying on nuclear power after 2040 for a sprint to net zero 2050, a target Dutton says the Coalition still supports. Progress to 2050 doesn’t have to be linear, he says.

The government’s argument is that the energy transition, albeit difficult, is urgent and progress must be cumulative; trashing our 2030 target will undermine both investor confidence and Australia’s international reputation.

Dutton says he won’t announce what targets a Coalition government would have until after the election. Clearly such targets, if they ever materialised, would be less than Labor’s.

This position would lose the Coalition some votes. Dutton would be relying on other voters not being too fussed about his lack of targets. That would allow him to concentrate on attacking not just the government’s current 2030 target but the 2035 target it has to lodge under the Paris agreement early next year.

The government is potentially more vulnerable in the debate over the 2035 target than in the current row over the 2030 one.

The Climate Change Authority makes a recommendation by October to Energy Minister Chris Bowen on what the 2035 target should be. In its discussion paper, the authority has floated a range of 65–75% emissions reduction on 2005 levels. The authority believes this “could be achievable and sustainable if additional action is taken by governments, business, investors and households to achieve it”.

That would be a substantial lift in ambition from the 2030 target of 43% reduction, especially given there is dispute about whether that can be reached.

The government doesn’t have to accept the authority’s recommendation if it decided it was too high. But if it rejected it, it would open itself to an onslaught from the Greens.

As for the Greens, they are saying if a Dutton government tried to backtrack on the current 2030 target, it would breach the legislation the Albanese government passed to enshrine the target. (That could open a Coalition government to legal action, assuming it could not repeal the legislation.)

In practice, despite what Dutton says about returning to government in one term, under a two-term strategy he would not anticipate having to face that problem any time soon. The early herculean challenge Dutton does face is selling nuclear power to voters.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: the spectre of Abbott looms behind Dutton’s energy strategy – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-spectre-of-abbott-looms-behind-duttons-energy-strategy-232380

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danielle Udy, Research associate in Climatology, University of Tasmania

Australia has a long history of bushfires. The 2019-2020 Black Summer was the worst in recorded history. But was that the worst it could get?

Our new research has reconstructed the past 2,000 years of southeast Australia’s bushfire weather, drawing on evidence of past climates laid down in changing patterns in deep ice in East Antarctica. The high and low pressure weather systems south of Australia are so large they connect the two continents, even though they are more than 3,000 km apart.

These historic weather patterns are recorded in the ice. Not with ash which might first come to mind, but in sea-salt spray from the Southern Ocean. When southeast Australia experiences extreme bushfire weather over summer, there is less wind around Antarctica, which means less sea-salt spray is laid down at the ice core site.

Buried in the ice is a warning. At least seven times over the last two millennia, our new research shows bushfire-prone southeast Australia has endured bushfire weather as bad or worse than what was experienced during the devastating Black Summer bushfires. The Black Summer bushfires burned through about 1.5 million hectares, or more than six times the size of the Australian Capital Territory.

This means natural climate variability can toss up more severe bushfire weather than we have yet seen. Given human-caused climate change is also loading the dice for worse and worse bushfire weather, it suggests we are underestimating how bad bushfires can be in Australia.

What makes bushfire weather?

If the weekend is forecast to be hot, dry and windy, we would say this is bushfire weather. Bushfire weather does not mean bushfires are inevitable, only they are more likely to start and more likely to be intense and fast-spreading once they ignite.

Australia’s Black Summer was caused by several climate factors combining. We had a multi-year drought, which coincided with climate variability bringing strong and hot northwesterly winds, and all against a backdrop of increasing heat and falling humidity over land brought by climate change.

Climate change is bringing more frequent and more severe bushfire weather. This trend is projected to continue into the future.

But quantifying the impacts of climate change on bushfire weather over the southeast Australian regions hardest hit by the Black Summer bushfires is difficult. This is because the climate in these mostly coastal or alpine regions varies a lot and we only have a relatively short record of observations.

Read more:
Antarctic ice shows Australia’s drought and flood risk is worse than thought

Our previous research on droughts – a key ingredient for extreme bushfire seasons – showed our roughly 120 years of rainfall observations does not fully cover the range of drought conditions which have occurred in the past 1,000 years. This is supported by recent palaeoclimate work reconstructing 2,000 years of eastern Australian climate variability and research using climate models to show evidence of megadroughts lasting 20 years or more in southeastern Australia.

Australia’s bushfire weather observations only extend back to 1950. In short, this means we have limited insights based on observations alone into how bad bushfire weather can be.

Answers in the ice

To reach back further in time, we looked to Antarctica. This is because Australia and Antarctica are linked through a “weather bridge”, meaning the enormous, powerful weather systems of the Southern Ocean affect both at the same time.

Year after year, these systems lift and carry different amounts of sea salt from the ocean surface and transport it to Antarctica, where it is laid down in layers of snow and ice.

About 125 km from Casey Station in Australia’s Antarctic territory lies Law Dome. This small, coastal ice cap is very useful for climate scientists, because it is regularly hit by cold cyclones from the Southern Ocean. These intense winds bring sea salt and trigger high snow accumulation – about 1.5 metres a year.

Drilling ice cores from places such as Law Dome has given us rich data sets of past climatic events. We have used these changing levels of sea salt in the ice to reconstruct rainfall and drought over two millennia in eastern Australia. Our new research focuses on Australia’s bushfire weather.

What did we find?

Using this evidence, we found an important relationship between the ice core record and the Forest Fire Danger Index, used by authorities to measure bushfire weather.

We then grouped similar weather patterns together over time, so we could get what we were really after: the connection between high and low pressure systems in the Southern Ocean, sea salt, and bushfire weather.

In the observational record, most of Australia’s bushfire disasters have been linked to intense summer cold fronts, including Ash Wednesday (1983), the Canberra bushfires (2003), Black Saturday (2009) and the Black Summer. These cold fronts direct hot, dry and intense winds from the Australian desert to the coast. This increases the chance of bushfires starting and can turn bushfires already burning into enormous conflagrations.

Using our ice core and weather datasets, we found the same weather conditions are behind periods of lower levels of sea salt in the ice and elevated bushfire weather in southeast Australia. These conditions are when the strong westerly winds circling Antarctica move north towards Australia, bringing summer cold fronts. In technical terms, this is when the Southern Annular Mode is negative.

In the last 2,000 years, we found seven years where bushfire weather was the same or even worse than the 2019-2020 Black Summer, in the summers of 485, 683, 709, 760, 862, 885 and 1108 CE.

Ice and bushfire

Climate change is making extreme bushfire weather steadily more likely.

What our research shows is that natural climate variability can also produce bushfire weather similar or worse than the Black Summer.

Fire authorities should take these possible natural extremes into account, in addition to the increasing intensity of bushfire weather from climate change.

Read more:
A 20-year ‘mega-drought’ in Australia? Research suggests it’s happened before – and we should expect it again

Danielle Udy receives funding from the Australian Research Council through the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science and a Discovery Project

Anthony Kiem receives funding from (i) the Australian Research Council (ARC) through Discovery Projects and (ii) the Future Drought Fund via the Southern Queensland and Northern New South Wales Drought Resilience Adoption and Innovation Hub.

Neil Holbrook receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC), through the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, and Australia’s National Environmental Science Program.

Nerilie Abram receives funding from the Australian Research Council through the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science and the Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century.

Tessa Vance receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Discovery Projects, and from the Australian Governments’ Antarctic Science Collaboration Initiative.

– ref. Of ice and fire: what sea salt in Antarctic snowfall reveals about bushfires worse than the Black Summer – https://theconversation.com/of-ice-and-fire-what-sea-salt-in-antarctic-snowfall-reveals-about-bushfires-worse-than-the-black-summer-230982

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of Melbourne

For some time now – gradually, but nevertheless relentlessly – the Australian labour market has been weakening.

Today’s Bureau of Statistics employment report, telling us what happened in the month to May, show that direction is unchanged.

Certainly, employment growth of almost 40,000 in the month and a slight dip in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4% is good news.

Not only that, the labour market remains in a much better state than prior to COVID. You need to go back to the early 1970s to find another period of 30 consecutive months when the unemployment rate was below 4.5%.

And the employment-to-population ratio (the proportion of the population aged 15 and older that is employed) remains not too far off its all-time high at 64.1%. That’s a full two percentage points above where it was when COVID hit in early 2020.

Yet the labour market is weakening.

Not that it has always been easy to see. Take growth in employment. Since June last year, when the rate of unemployment began to rise, employment has increased at an annualised rate of 2.6%.

That rate is much faster than in any of the previous three episodes since 2000 when the rate of unemployment rose appreciably.

This resilience in employment has muted the rise in the rate of unemployment that would have otherwise occurred.

Okun’s law, named after US economist Arthur Okun, tells us how we ought to expect the unemployment rate to change for any given rate of economic growth.

Gross domestic product grew 1.1% in the year to March. Okun’s law says this should mean the unemployment rate climbed 0.9 of a percentage point. Instead, it climbed by only one-third as much, 0.3 of a percentage point.

More employed than might be expected

So, why has employment been growing faster than expected? There are several reasons.

One is rapid population growth. Population has grown at an annual rate of 2.9% since last June, more quickly than in previous times when unemployment rose.

More people means more demand for services and more demand for workers.

Another reason concerns job vacancies. During the recovery from COVID, the proportion of vacant jobs almost doubled, climbing to 3.1% in mid-2022 compared to just 1.6% prior to COVID.

Since then the vacancy rate has fallen back to 2.3%. This matters for employment. Drawing down on the stock of existing vacancies allows a larger number of extra workers to be employed.

And average work hours have fallen, from about 138.5 hours per month in June last year to 136 hours in May. With each worker doing fewer hours on average, the total hours of work can be divided among more workers.

Jobs growth heading down

Even with these special circumstances, the pace of employment growth is falling. In the past six months annualised employment growth has almost halved compared to the first six months of 2023. It’s decreased from 3.7% to 2%.

And other indicators show a more pronounced downward trend.

Annual growth in monthly hours worked averaged close to 7% in the first six months of 2023, but only 0.8% in the past six months.

Annual growth in the number of jobs reported to the Australian Tax Office payroll system over the same period fell from around 6% to 2%.

All this spells hard times ahead for the government and the Reserve Bank.

With the labour market bubbling along and the rate of unemployment hardly budging, there seemed to be little trade-off between pursuing an inflation-first policy and full employment.

That is no longer the case. The trade-off is becoming clear to see, and looming larger with every new release of data on the state of the labour market.

Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Unemployment has dipped, but don’t be fooled – the jobs market is weakening – https://theconversation.com/unemployment-has-dipped-but-dont-be-fooled-the-jobs-market-is-weakening-231923

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Bill Shorten, the minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), is currently in New York at a United Nations conference on the rights of people with disabilities.

At the weekend, he’ll fly to Europe to represent Australia at a summit in Switzerland aimed at finding international consensus on a peace path for the Ukrainian conflict.

In this podcast, Shorten discusses these conferences, as well as the ongoing process of reforming the NDIS.

On what the Ukrainian peace conference hopes to achieve, given Russia will not be there, Shorten says

Well, at the absolute very least, it’s an expression of global solidarity for the Ukrainian struggle against the criminal invasion of Ukraine by Russia. But I think more than that it […] lays down markers across a range of issues, I expect, which would be part of the basis for a peace process.

The work has to be done, eventually it has to obviously involve Russia, but there’s work which needs to start now.

Read more:
With Russia not attending, what can this weekend’s Ukraine peace summit achieve?

Australia has given substantial aid to Ukraine but refused its request for retired Taipan helicopters and a shipment of coal. Shorten says:

Well, Ukraine is entitled to ask for whatever it wants, but Australia is entitled to provide whatever it thinks it should.

When it comes to the coal shipment, it’s not correct to say that nothing has happened. What happened is that we’re interested in delivering the most effective and efficient support we can for the Ukrainian people. Shipment of coal from Australia carries shipping and insurance costs. Instead, we’ve given the equivalent amount of the coal in cash – $20 million to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund.

Shorten currently has legislation going through parliament to reform the NDIS. The UN disabilities conference has been an opportunity to share information with other countries.

It is quite an amazing experience. The governments of the world talk about what they’re doing for people with disability, but it’s a sort of kitchen of everything for disability.

The nations say what they’re doing, the non-government organisations talk. There are many Australian civil society disability advocates who are here. We see what good ideas we can hoover up from the rest of the world, and we talk a bit about the Australian journey for disability.

NDIS reform involves a battle against fraud and what have been exploding costs. Shorten says:

I must state this at the outset because sometimes NDIS media coverage tends to be just all doom and gloom. The NDIS, since its inception 11 years ago, has changed hundreds of thousands of lives for the better and it’s attracted people to work in the sector. But it is correct that it’s growing too fast. And what we’ve got a range of measures to get the scheme back on track. This legislation specifically goes to some of them.

We want to make sure that when a person’s annual budget or their two-yearly budget is expended far quicker than the annual or the bi-annual plan predicted, then we’re able to look and understand why that is the case. We want to make sure that the person with a disability isn’t being manipulated into burning up their resources with bad advice or inappropriate services.

Finally, there’s been speculation about whether Shorten would be interested in an oversees post. Will he be around for the long haul? Asked if he’ll contest the next election, he says,

My plans haven’t changed at all. I am very lucky to be able to serve in the parliament. I’ve been very fortunate […] I’ve been lucky to lead the Labor Party, I’ve been lucky to work in NDIS and government services and be part of the royal commission class action. I don’t want to waste a minute of my time here.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Bill Shorten’s around-the-world trip to discuss peace in Ukraine and NDIS reform – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-bill-shortens-around-the-world-trip-to-discuss-peace-in-ukraine-and-ndis-reform-232381