Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephanie Perkiss, Associate professor in accounting, University of Wollongong

With the Easter weekend now around the corner, the sixth edition of the Global Chocolate Scorecard has just been released.

This is an annual initiative produced by Be Slavery Free, in collaboration with two Australian universities and a wide range of consultants and sustainability interest groups.

It ranks companies across the entire chocolate sector – from major multinational producers through to retailers – on a wide range of sustainability policies and practices.

This year, there have been some improvements across the board.

Transparency has increased, with 82% of companies now fully disclosing child labour data, up from 45% in 2023. The data reported also shows the discovery of child labour is down in the sector.

On other measures, the sector is less commendable. Deforestation is still high, with more than a third of cocoa bought by companies coming from deforested or unknown sources.

Companies reported that 84% of cocoa farmers in their supply chain are not earning a living income – or their income is unknown. And there hasn’t been enough progress on the use of pesticides to address the chronic exposure of communities to harmful chemicals.

Chocolate’s annual scorecard

The Global Chocolate Scorecard evaluates and ranks chocolate traders, manufacturers, brands and retailers.

This year, 60 companies from around the world were invited to participate. Collectively, these companies purchase more than 90% of the world’s cocoa.

Companies are categorised as either large, small (less than 1,000 tons of cocoa) or retailers. They’re evaluated based on a range of policies and practices.

These include:

• traceability and transparency levels across supply chains
• whether they pay farmers a living income
• efforts to prevent the use of child labour
• action on climate and deforestation
• how they support agroforestry
• efforts to eliminate the use of harmful pesticides.

Top of the class

Awards were given out this year to the best and the worst performers – a “Good Egg” award in each category, a gender award, and a “Bad Egg” award overall.

This year, Tony’s Chocolonely won the Good Egg award in the large company category. It scored the highest against the six markers, representing the most sustainable chocolate company according to the scorecard.

The Gender award went to Mars Wrigley – which produces Mars, Snickers, Twix and Malteasers – recognising the company for work supporting gender equality.

The Good Egg award for smaller companies went to US chocolate manufacturer Beyond Good. Beyond Good buys beans directly from farmers in Madagascar and Uganda, ensuring traceability and fair trade practices.

Unlike indirect sourcing in the cocoa commodity supply chain, Beyond Good’s direct trade model means the company buys cocoa direct from the farmers. Bypassing intermediaries enables better transparency and supply chain relationships.

The ‘bad egg’ award

This year, multinational chocolate manufacturer Mondelēz, producers of Cadbury, Toblerone, Green & Black’s, Oreo and Daim, was given the “Bad Egg” award.

The award recognises the company’s decision not to participate in this year’s chocolate scorecard process, indicating of a lack of transparency and public accountability.

Mondelēz did participate in the last (fifth) edition, ranking 25th out of 38 large companies. The company has not provided a reason for not participating this year. However, it is an outlier, as all other large chocolate companies participated.

Another notable absence from this year’s scorecard was major Australian retailer Coles, which has participated in the past.

The understanding that businesses have a responsibility to be accountable to their consumers is not new. It encompasses aspects of corporate social responsibility – compliance, ethical and sustainable practices, and transparency.

To be transparent, companies need to be open and honest about how their products are made, how their prices are set and what policies they follow.

A sector in turmoil

The global chocolate sector is facing some serious challenges. About 75% of the world’s cocoa is produced in West Africa.

Cocoa prices surged to record highs in 2024. Many major chocolate companies increased their prices as a result.

Despite the price of chocolate rising, these increases are often not passed on, leaving many cocoa farmers in extreme poverty. This is in addition to struggling with the impacts of climate change.

New uncertainty for producers are only set to worsen in the wake of the Trump administration’s dismantling of USAID and International Labour Affairs Bureau programs. Such cuts ending projects for health, humans rights and monitoring risk reversing the much celebrated progress on reducing child labour in chocolate supply chains.

Stephanie Perkiss is part of the Chocolate Scorecard’s Data Integrity & Ethics and Research team.

– ref. Here’s who topped the rankings in this year’s scorecard for sustainable chocolate – and which confectionery giant refused to participate – https://theconversation.com/heres-who-topped-the-rankings-in-this-years-scorecard-for-sustainable-chocolate-and-which-confectionery-giant-refused-to-participate-253933

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jazmine Skinner, Lecturer in Animal Science, University of Southern Queensland

Allergies can be debilitating for those who have them – even more so when the cause of the allergic reaction is a beloved pet.

Second only to dust mites, the humble domestic house cat is one of the major causes of indoor allergens for people.

But what is the actual source of the allergic response? And are certain breeds less allergenic than others? There are many myths and misconceptions related to cat allergens, so let’s debunk a few.

It’s not the hair!

Contrary to common misconception, cat hair is not the cause of allergies in people.

Rather, the allergy is down to a pesky protein commonly referred to as Fel d 1. This protein is produced in a cat’s saliva and skin glands. While cats produce at least eight allergens, it is Fel d 1 which studies have shown to be the leading cat allergen.

Fel d 1 is a microscopic protein that readily sticks to clothing and other surfaces. It can also remain airborne for long periods of time, making it easy to inhale.

Studies have shown it can even be found in homes without cats, brought in from outside on clothes and other objects – not great news for people with a severe allergy.

The Fel d 1 allergen is transferred to the cat’s hair and skin when they groom themselves. It then spreads into their environment when they shed hair and dander, which is mostly comprised of dead skin cells.

Although the cat’s hair can carry the allergens, the hair itself is not at fault here. Even hairless Sphynx cats secrete the protein. This is also why longer haired, fluffier cats don’t necessarily make you more allergic.

It’s not the breed, either

In fact, research has shown that neither the length of the cat’s hair, nor the colour of its coat, appear to have any significant bearing on how much allergen the cat produces.

Regardless of a cat’s breed, sex and individual variation in the production of Fel d 1 are the main reason why some cats seem to cause a greater allergic response than others.

It has long been known that on average, unneutered male cats produce more Fel d 1 than females or neutered males. Some studies have also found that older cats tend to produce lower levels of Fel d 1 than younger cats.

While there are breeds referred to as “hypoallergenic”, it is important to remember this does not mean “allergen-free”. According to a review published in 2024, “to date, there is no scientific evidence for a hypoallergenic cat breed”.

However, putting our strict hypoallergenic definition aside, a few small studies have reported reduced levels of Fel d 1 production in some of these breeds. It is important to remember though that even in individual cats, production of Fel d 1 can vary widely throughout the year.

Further studies in these breeds, using larger sample sizes, is needed to confirm these findings.

Overall, the fact that sensitive people report an increased allergic response to some cats rather than others is likely due to variation in how much Fel d 1 the individual cat produces.

Can we make cats less allergenic?

In the last few years, several studies have investigated the possibility of vaccinating cats against the Fel d 1 protein.

While this would be great news for allergy sufferers, the issue is that researchers are currently unsure what role the protein plays in cats. Current evidence suggests it may play a role in the dispersal of pheromones, and potentially in protecting the cat’s skin; further research is needed.

There is also some initial evidence to suggest that therapeutic diets in which an antibody is added from chicken eggs (IgY antibodies) can reduce the production of Fel d 1 that a cat produces. However, larger studies are needed before we might start seeing “anti-allergy” cat food on the shelves.

There is some evidence to suggest that exposure to cats at a young age may reduce the likelihood of a person developing an allergy.

If you’re an adult allergic to cats but still would like to have one, there is good evidence to suggest regular cleaning can substantially decrease the amount of cat allergens in your home.

Even though the jury is out on the scientific evidence for “hypoallergenic” cat breeds, some cats really are less allergenic than others.

Despite the challenges for those that are allergic, you are not doomed to have to avoid cats for the rest of your life. With the right management and care, cat ownership is entirely possible – and absolutely worth it.

Jazmine Skinner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why are some cats more allergenic than others? It’s not their coat length – https://theconversation.com/why-are-some-cats-more-allergenic-than-others-its-not-their-coat-length-251133

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janet Hoek, Professor in Public Health, University of Otago

At the start of this month, when denicotinisation would have been due to come into effect in Aotearoa New Zealand (had the government not repealed smokefree laws), Australia introduced innovative smokefree policies to change the look, ingredients and packaging of tobacco products.

New Zealand’s current goal is to reduce smoking prevalence to no more than 5% (and as close to zero as possible) among all population groups. However, realising this goal now seems very unlikely.

Latest figures show 6.9% of the general population smoke daily, but smoking places a much heavier burden on Māori and Pacific peoples, where 14.7% and 12.3% smoke, respectively.

New Zealand could borrow measures from Australia’s new regulations, or even go beyond, to begin salvaging its reputation as a country that develops progressive, evidence-based smokefree policy. Here are six ideas New Zealand should consider implementing.

1. Refresh and diversify on-pack warnings

New Zealand introduced plain packaging in 2018. This policy replaced vibrant on-pack branding with dissuasive colours and much larger health warnings. However, despite annual warning rotation, recent work suggests on-pack warnings have “worn out”.

Our work with people who smoke suggests we need two responses: refresh existing health warnings and create more diverse warnings that illustrate other risks, such as the financial burden smoking imposes and its inter-generational harms.

2. Offer hope that quitting is possible

On-pack warnings aim to ensure people who smoke understand the many health risks smoking causes.

However, few countries (with the exception of Canada) also provide advice to increase people’s confidence they can quit or promote the benefits of becoming smokefree. Australia has now followed Canada’s lead and will introduce “health promotion inserts that encourage and empower people to quit smoking”.

The ASPIRE Aotearoa Centre’s recent work shows that by promoting positive outcomes and offering practical advice, health promotion inserts foster hope and help motivate people who smoke to think about quitting.

New Zealand should complement external pack warnings with inserts that increase people’s agency and support smoking cessation.

3. Change the experience of smoking

Tobacco companies use cigarette stick design to shape how people experience smoking. It is no coincidence that cigarette sticks are white. The colour has connotations of cleanliness and deflects attention from the harms smoking causes.

Until Canada introduced on-stick warnings in 2023, no country had changed the design of cigarette sticks.

Australia has now followed suit and will require health warnings on cigarette filters. New Zealand could both adopt and go beyond this measure.

Our earlier work examined the effects of dissuasive colours and designs on cigarette sticks. People who smoke found colours such as murky green and mustard yellow aversive. They also reacted strongly against graphics, such as a chart showing the minutes of life lost with each cigarette, which could be printed on sticks.

4. Eliminate additives

Tobacco companies use several ingredients to make smoking more palatable and enhance nicotine delivery. For example, many cigarettes contain menthol, even those without a characterising menthol flavour. These ingredients ease harshness and make the initial, sometimes disagreeable, experience of smoking much smoother.

Other additives enhance nicotine delivery. For example, tobacco companies may add sugars to tobacco that, once combusted, create acetaldehyde, which may increase the addictiveness of nicotine.

Disallowing these additives could further reduce smoking uptake. By making smoking a harsher experience, this measure could also encourage people who smoke to quit.

5. Get rid of gimmicks that appeal to young people

Tobacco companies have developed product features that enable people who smoke to experience different flavours. Brands such as Dunhill Switch contain a flavour capsule within the filter. When squeezed, the capsule releases a flavouring agent, thus creating a more varied and novel smoking experience.

Our study of young people’s responses to capsule cigarettes found these appealed more to those who did not smoke than to those who did. New Zealand should follow Australia by closing loopholes and disallowing products likely to increase interest in smoking among young people who do not smoke.

6. Disallow filters

There is one measure New Zealand could implement to go beyond Australia’s new policies.

The draft Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 action plan proposed disallowing filters in cigarettes, but this measure was not part of the final action plan. Described by renowned Stanford University historian Robert Proctor as “the deadliest fraud in the history of human civilization”, filters may mislead people who smoke into believing they have reduced the risks smoking presents.

In addition, filters do not biodegrade and studies report they cause considerable harm to the environment and impose substantial clean-up costs on local authorities.

Australia has made important changes that will increase knowledge of smoking’s risks, reduce tobacco companies’ ability to develop cigarette features likely to appeal to young people, and support smoking cessation.

Meanwhile New Zealand, once a leader in tobacco control policy, is very unlikely to reach the government’s smokefree 2025 goal. Adopting Australia’s policies could support smoking cessation. But there are opportunities to go beyond Australia’s approach; disallowing filters could bring comprehensive health as well as environmental benefits.

Janet Hoek receives (or has received) funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand, Royal Society Marsden Fund, NZ Cancer Society and NZ Heart Foundation. She is a member of the Health Coalition Aotearoa’s smokefree expert advisory group and of the Ministry of Health’s smokefree advisory group, a senior editor at Tobacco Control (honorarium paid), and she serves on several other government, NGO and community advisory groups.

– ref. Australia’s innovative new policies are designed to cut smoking rates – here are 6 ideas NZ could borrow – https://theconversation.com/australias-innovative-new-policies-are-designed-to-cut-smoking-rates-here-are-6-ideas-nz-could-borrow-253717

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Gleeson, Associate Professor in Public Health, La Trobe University

While Australia was busy defending the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme against threats from the United States in recent weeks, another issue related to the supply and trade of medicines was flying under the radar.

Buried on page 19 of the Trump’s administration’s allegations of barriers to trade was a single paragraph related to Australia’s access to generic medicines. These are cheaper alternatives to branded medicines that are no longer under patent.

The US is concerned about how much notice their drug companies have that Australia will introduce a generic version of their product. Once a single generic version of a medicine is listed on the PBS, the price drops. The US argues that lack of advance notice is a barrier to trade.

There is pressure for Australia to emulate aspects of the US system, where drug companies can delay generic copies of their medicines by 30 months.

If the US plays hardball on this issue, perhaps in return for other concessions, this could delay Australia’s access to cheaper generic drugs.

It would also mean significant pressure on Australia’s drug budget, as the government could be forced to pay for the more expensive branded versions to ensure supply.

What’s the current process?

Drug companies use patents to protect their intellectual property and prohibit other manufacturers from copying the drug. The standard patent term in Australia is 20 years, but the time a product is protected by patents can be extended in a number of ways. When patents expire, other companies are able to bring generic versions to market.

A generic manufacturer wanting to market its drug in Australia must apply to the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) for regulatory approval. Before approval is granted, the generic company must provide a certificate to the TGA that states either:

a) that the product will not infringe a valid patent, or

b) that it has notified the patent-holder of its intention to market the product.

The certificate can be provided after the TGA has evaluated the generic – before it grants approval.

If the generic company chooses option “a”, the manufacturer of the patented product may not find out the competing product is going to be launched until after the TGA has approved it.

The patent-holder can then apply for a court order to temporarily stop the generic from coming to market, while legal battles are fought over patent-related issues.

However, if the first generic has already launched and been added to the PBS, it triggers an automatic 25% price drop. This affects all versions of the drug, including the patented product.

In Australia, patented drug companies that try to delay generics by taking legal action without good reason can face penalties and be required to pay compensation.

Patented drug companies don’t like this system. They want to know as early as possible that a generic is planning to launch so they can initiate legal action and prevent or delay generic entry and the associated price reductions.

Is Australia’s system consistent with our trade obligations?

Australia introduced its patent notification system at the request of the US, to comply with the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA). The World Trade Organization doesn’t require patent notification.

Australia’s system is different to that of the United States. But it’s consistent with the rules negotiated between the two countries.

US drug companies have long argued Australia’s system is a barrier to trade. They want Australia to change it to be more like the US system.

Why is the US arguing this is a barrier to trade?

The Trump Administration’s 2025 report on foreign trade barriers states “US and Australian pharmaceutical companies have expressed concerns about delays” in the patent notification process.

The report also mentions US concerns about the potential for penalties and compensation when a patent owner takes legal action against a generic company.

This report reflects long-standing concerns of the US pharmaceutical industry. In March, its drug makers trade association wrote to the US trade representative complaining that “lack of adequate notification” is an unfair trade practice. It argued this creates uncertainty for patent-holders, prevents resolution of patent challenges before generics enter the market, and penalises patented-drug companies for trying to protect their rights.

Medicines Australia, which represents the Australian subsidiaries of many big patented drug makers, echoes these concerns.

What does the US want instead?

The US patent notification system is much more favourable to the patented drug companies than Australia’s.

In the US, the generic company must notify the patented drug company within 20 days of filing an application for approval.

Then, within 45 days of receiving the notification, the patent-holder can ask the regulator to impose a 30-month delay on approval for the generic.

This means there is an automatic 30-month delay on the launch of the generic, unless patents expire in the meantime or the court decides earlier that valid patents aren’t being infringed.

What could happen if Australia bowed to pressure from the US?

Changing Australia’s system to be more like the US would delay generics entering the market in Australia and keep the price of drugs higher for longer.

The quicker generics can be added to the PBS, the less the government pays. When the first generic is listed on the PBS, a 25% price cut is applied to all versions of the product, including the patented version.

Over time, as more generics get added, prices continue to fall. Having plenty of generic competition can eventually result in prices lower than the PBS co-payment, resulting in savings for consumers.

In the longer term, lost savings from timely listing of generics on the PBS would reduce value for money and add cost pressure.

In time, it could also delay savings for consumers from drugs priced below the PBS co-payment.

Both major parties are saying they won’t use the PBS as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the US over tariffs. They also need to resist pressure to slow down access to generic drugs.

Deborah Gleeson has received funding in the past from the Australian Research Council. She has received funding from various national and international non-government organisations to attend speaking engagements related to trade agreements and health, including access to medicines. She has represented the Public Health Association of Australia on matters related to trade agreements and public health.

– ref. Trump has Australia’s generic medicines in his sights. And no-one’s talking about it – https://theconversation.com/trump-has-australias-generic-medicines-in-his-sights-and-no-ones-talking-about-it-253836

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacquelyn Harverson, PhD Candidate, School of Psychology, Deakin University

Once upon a time, children fought for control of the remote to the sole family television. Now the choice of screen-based content available to kids seems endless. There are computers, tablets, phones and gaming consoles offering streaming services, online content and apps.

Children also use devices at school, with digital literacy part of the Australian curriculum from the start of school.

The speed and scale of this change has left parents, researchers and policymakers scrambling to catch up. And it has inevitably led to concerns about screen use, as well as guidelines about limiting their use.

Our new study looks at the links between digital technology use and young children’s wellbeing, specifically for those aged four to six.

Our comprehensive analysis shows children who spend longer periods using digital technologies are more likely to have social, emotional and behavioural difficulties. However, we can’t say at what age or level of screen use these negative effects are likely to become evident.

But for parents trying to navigate a world where technology is all around us, our study also shows there are things they can do to help their kids use screens in healthier ways.

Read more:
Why parents need to be like Big Ted and ‘talk aloud’ while they use screens with their kids

Our study

We carried out a systematic review of the research literature on children’s use of digital devices since 2011 (after the Apple iPad was launched). This means we examined all the available peer-reviewed research on digital devices and their impact on wellbeing for children.

We also focused on ages four to six age as it is a time when children are developing rapidly and beginning school. Other studies have focused on particular types of device. But we included all kinds of digital devices in our search – from televisions to phones, tablets and gaming consoles – to make sure we could provide comprehensive analysis of what kids are using.

The studies came from 20 countries, including Australia, China, the United States, Turkey, Germany and Canada. They were almost exclusively based on parents’ reports of their children and include more than 83,000 parents.

4 areas of child wellbeing

From this, we analysed the relationship between children’s technology use and the following four areas:

1. psychosocial wellbeing: an overall measure that captures children’s happiness, as well as social and emotional adjustment.

2. social functioning: children’s social skills, including how well they get along with their peers.

3. the parent-child relationship: the level of closeness or conflict between parents and their children.

4. behavioural functioning: the absence of behavioural difficulties such as tech-related tantrums, hyperactivity, depression or anxiety.

We did this with a meta-analysis – a statistical method that uses data from multiple studies to draw conclusions.

Read more:
3 ways to help your child transition off screens and avoid the dreaded ‘tech tantrums’

What we found

Our analysis found more digital technology use in young children was associated with poorer wellbeing outcomes across the four areas.

It is important to note correlation doesn’t equal causation. The scope of the research means at this point, it is not possible to identify the exact reasons behind the negative relationships.

But we do know the more time children spent watching TV, playing on iPads or apps, the more likely they were to have problems with behaviour, social skills, their relationship with their parents, and their emotional wellbeing.

But tech use is more than just time

Our research also brought together emerging evidence which shows the relationship between digital tech use and child wellbeing is complex.

This means the type of content children consume, and the context in which they consume it, can also have a bearing on their wellbeing. The research shows there are several ways parents can guide their children to potentially mitigate the negative links with social, emotional and behavioural wellbeing.

With this in mind, how can you encourage healthier screen use?

3 tips for kids and screens

1. Keep an eye on the clock

The research cannot provide a specific “time limit” for screen use. But you can still be mindful of how much time your child spends on devices both at home and at school – moderation is key.

Try and mix screen time with other activities, such as time outside or time with friends and family, books or imaginary play.

2. Seek out quality

Research shows encouraging high-quality educational content during screen use may curb negative links between tech use and wellbeing.

Consider swapping fast-paced cartoons and time spent on lots of short clips with educational viewing, for example ABC kids programs that promote learning.

Introduce your child to age-appropriate educational and interactive games that challenge them and encourage them to be creative.

3. Use tech together

Tech time isn’t just for kids – parents can also join in.

Solo tech use may reduce opportunities for positive social interactions. But watching or playing with friends or family opens up opportunities for conversation, working together and learning.

This could include watching a movie together and talking about the characters, working on an online puzzle together or learning new coding skills together.

Jacquelyn Harverson is affiliated with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child.

Louise Paatsch receives funding from Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child

Sharon Horwood is affiliated with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child.

– ref. New research shows digital technology is linked to reduced wellbeing in young kids. So what can parents do? – https://theconversation.com/new-research-shows-digital-technology-is-linked-to-reduced-wellbeing-in-young-kids-so-what-can-parents-do-253637

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gary Mortimer, Professor of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour, Queensland University of Technology

About 14% of Australians experienced personal fraud last year. Of these, 2.1 million experienced credit card fraud, 675,300 were caught in a scam, 255,000 had their identities stolen and 433,000 were impersonated online.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics latest Personal Fraud Survey, between July 2023 and June 2024, Australians lost A$2.1 billion through credit card fraud.

This was up almost 9% from the previous year. Even after reimbursements, the loss was still $477 million.

These figures do not include financial loss through identity theft, or phishing, romance, computer support and dodgy financial advice scams.

Why the increase?

Research shows the more frequently we use technology, the more likely we are to be scammed. Monica Whitty from the Cyber Security Centre, University of Warwick, found victims of cyber-frauds were more likely to score high on impulsivity measures like ‘urgency’ and engage in more frequent online routine activities that place them at great risk of becoming scammed.

We communicate via email, we shop online, use dating apps and allow technicians to remotely access our computers. Meanwhile, amazing “get rich quick” opportunities are apparently being liked by our friends on our socials almost every day.

But too many of us do not stop and think, “is this legitimate?” It is no wonder we see personal fraud and scams increase every year.

While the Australian Bureau of Statistics figures suggest older Australians (aged 45 and over) are more exposed to card fraud, research has found demographics are not a significant predictor of fraud victimisation.

Taking risks

Being too trusting, drives complacency, which produces gullibility. Think about an online dating sites. The site uses a multi-factor authenticator, it requires you to authenticate your photo, password protect your profile and read the scam warnings.

A site’s apparent legitimacy increases your trust. Research has found if you perceive a platform to be legitimate you could be exposed to romance fraud. Fraudsters may be operating within a site, even if it is legitimate.

Another strong predictor of exposure to online fraud is self-control. Self-control theory predicts individuals with low self-control tend to pursue their own self-interest without considering the negative consequences.

Simply, if the investment scheme looks “too good”, they will mostly likely click on the link and get scammed.

Giving away too much

Some individuals are prone to self-disclosing personal information online – and scammers love personal information. Self-disclosure is defined as the amount of information a person decides to make common knowledge.

Sometimes, we disclose, even when we don’t intend to. A common phishing technique on social media is status updates that read, “Your porn star name is your first pet’s name and the first street you lived on.”

They’re interesting, funny and bring on a healthy dose of nostalgia, but the answers to those questions that you tap in for all to see are also most likely to be your security questions on your bank accounts.

The most common scams in 2023-2024:

• Buying or selling scams (1.4% or 308,200)
• Information request or phishing scams (0.7% or 148,800)

What is the government doing to protect me?

The Australian government recently passed legislation which targets scams. It places increased responsibilities on banking and finance, telecommunications and digital platforms organisations to protect customers.

Suspicious numbers can now be accompanied a warning of “potential fraud” on your smartphone screen. Banks are also informing customers about the latest scams. Some banking transactions can verify the identity of the payment recipient, to ensure the details you have match the actual account holder.

While these will not stop all scams, they are a step towards reducing the number of victims and the amount of money lost to fraudulent approaches.

Six steps to protect yourself

There are some small but powerful steps we can all take to reduce the likelihood of financial harm.

1. Passwords: it is important to have strong, unique passwords across your accounts. Using a password manager can help with this.

2. Multi-factor authentication: many platforms will allow you to add extra layers of security to your account by using one-time passwords, authenticator apps, or tokens.

3. Review privacy settings: be aware of the different settings on your accounts and ensure you are in control of what information you provide and what can be accessed by others.

4. Be vigilant: know what you see and hear may not be real. The person or company you are communicating with may not be authentic. It is okay to be sceptical and take time to do your own checks.

5. Money transfers: never send money you are not willing to lose. Too often, people will send money before realising it is a scam. Never feel rushed or forced into any financial decision. It is OK to say no.

6. Credit monitoring: if you know or suspect you have been scammed, you can enact a credit ban, meaning no one can access your details or take further action in your name. This can be a good short-term solution.

And if you are scammed …

Anyone can report money lost in a scam to ReportCyber, the Australian online police reporting portal for cyber incidents. If you have received scam texts or emails, you can report these to Scamwatch, to assist with education and awareness activities.

Gary Mortimer receives and has received funding from the Building Employer Confidence and Inclusion in Disability Grant, AusIndustry Entrepreneurs’ Program, National Clothing Textiles Stewardship Scheme, National Retail Association and Australian Retailers Association.

– ref. 3.5 million Australians experienced fraud last year. This could be avoided through 6 simple steps – https://theconversation.com/3-5-million-australians-experienced-fraud-last-year-this-could-be-avoided-through-6-simple-steps-253623

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Knowles, Lecturer, Western Civilisation Program, Australian Catholic University

The New York Times Connections game asks players to categorise 16 words into four groups of four. For example, in one collection of 16, a category included “blow”, “cat”, “gold” and “sword”: these are all words that might come before “fish”.

As described by puzzle editor Wyna Liu, completing the puzzle should feel “challenging and satisfying”. Players are encouraged to “think flexibly”. Liu says her job as puzzle designer is “to trick you”.

Challenging word-based games are not a modern invention.

In fact, in early medieval England, around the year 1000, there was also a strong appetite for word puzzles designed to entertain (and trick) avid players.

Gaming in the Middle Ages

Riddles were very popular in early medieval England.

Many examples of riddles from this period are in Latin, but a collection of approximately 95 poems, written in Old English and found in a manuscript known as the Exeter Book are the earliest surviving vernacular collection of riddles in Western Europe.

Compiled around the year 1000, The Exeter Book also includes a variety of poetic works with both religious and secular themes. This, and its location since 1072 in Exeter Cathedral Library, suggests it had a religious audience of monks.

Take the shortest riddle in the Exeter collection, Riddle 69, included here in both its original Old English form and in translation, thanks to riddles scholar Megan Cavell, one of the creators of the website The Riddle Ages:

Wundor wearð on wege; wæter wearð to bane.

There was a wonder on the wave; water turned to bone.

Early English riddles ask their audience to guess what the different clues point to, usually an object or animal. In Riddle 69, the audience is asked to identify what might be referred to through the metaphor of water turning to bone.

The solution to this riddle is debated, but most suggestions have to do with ice: ice, icicle, iceberg and frozen pond.

The answer hangs on the various qualities that attach to the word bone: it is hard, difficult to break and can also be long, like an icicle.

It’s possible to imagine bone and ice linked in a Connections category “things that are tough”.

Most Old English riddles are a little more complex but still rely on the trickery that comes from word play, metaphor and ambiguity.

One of the more surprising riddles in the Exeter collection (particularly when we consider the likely monastic audience) is Riddle 45:

I heard that something was growing in the corner,
swelling and sticking up, raising its roof.
A proud bride grasped that boneless thing,
with her hands. A lord’s daughter
covered with a garment that bulging thing.

A series of clues point to possible solutions. The answer will be something that rises, that needs physical touch to grow, and which is covered by cloth.

The innocently playful solution to this riddle is dough – though it certainly puts another, more vulgar, solution in mind. This innuendo likely added to the entertainment and challenge of the original riddle, teasing its audience with a taboo answer.

The Exeter Book Riddles does not come with answers. This is both a frustration and a reason for their longevity: modern audiences continue to grapple with possible solutions 1,000 years later.

It is also possible that part of the entertainment for both medieval and modern audiences is their ambiguity. There are multiple plausible solutions.

Culture is a game changer

Part of what makes interpreting the Old English riddles so difficult for modern players is that word puzzles are shaped by the culture in which they were created.

This cultural coding is obvious in Connections puzzles too. For example on January 3 2025 a category linked American slang words for a dollar, less familiar in other countries: buck, clam, single and smacker.

Similarly, Old English riddles assume knowledge of aspects of life in early medieval England. For example, Riddle 26 requires an understanding of the processes by which an animal hide became a book.

Some even rely on knowledge of runic characters to understand their solution; this was an alphabet that was used in England prior to the adoption of the Latin alphabet from the 7th century.

Old English riddles offer an excellent insight into not just the sorts of games and puzzles that entertained early medieval audiences, and continue to entertain us today, but also into domestic life in the period.

In 1,000 years, Connections puzzles will be harder to guess because players will be unfamiliar with our current way of life. They will also be a type of relic into how minds and culture operated in the early 21st century.

Emma Knowles does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What do medieval puzzles and the New York Times Connections have in common? – https://theconversation.com/what-do-medieval-puzzles-and-the-new-york-times-connections-have-in-common-250155

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ritesh Chugh, Associate Professor, Information and Communications Technology, CQUniversity Australia

You’re about to recycle your laptop or your phone, so you delete all your photos and personal files. Maybe you even reset the device to factory settings.

You probably think your sensitive data is now safe. But there is more to be done: hackers may still be able to retrieve passwords, documents or bank details, even after a reset.

In fact, 90% of second-hand laptops, hard drives and memory cards still contain recoverable data. This indicates that many consumers fail to wipe their devices properly before resale or disposal.

But there are some simple steps you can take to keep your personal information safe while recycling responsibly.

The data security risks

Discarded or resold electronics often retain sensitive personal and corporate information. Simply deleting files or performing a factory reset may not be sufficient. Data can often be easily recovered using specialised tools. This oversight has led to alarming incidents of data leaks and breaches.

For example, 42% of used storage devices sold on eBay still contained sensitive data, despite sellers following methods to erase data. This included passport images, school records, and corporate documents.

Another 2022 study found that improperly erased internet-connected devices stored private data, making them vulnerable to exploitation. European e-waste exported to Ghana also contained classified corporate and government files, exposing security risks beyond personal identity theft.

A major wireless provider in the United States failed to securely decommission storage devices. This lead to a data breach affecting 14 million customers.

Similarly, in 2021 improperly discarded medical hard drives exposed over 100,000 confidential patient records.

Why standard factory resets are not enough

Many people believe performing a factory reset fully erases their data. But this is not always the case.

An analysis of secondhand mobile devices found that 35% still contained recoverable data after being reset and resold. This highlights the risks of relying solely on factory resets.

On older devices or those without encryption, residual data can still be recovered using forensic tools.

iPhones use hardware encryption, making resets more effective, while Android devices vary by manufacturer.

Best practices for secure disposal

To protect your personal and organisational information, consider these measures before disposing of old devices:

Data wiping

Personal users should use data-wiping software to securely erase their hard drive before selling or recycling a device.

However, for solid-state drives, traditional wiping methods may not be effective. This is because solid-state drives store data using flash memory and algorithms, which prolong a device’s lifespan by distributing data across memory cells and can prevent direct overwriting.

Instead, enabling full-disk encryption with software such as BitLocker on Windows or FileVault on Mac before resetting the device can help to ensure data is unreadable.

On Android phones, apps such as Shreddit provide secure data-wiping options. iPhones already encrypt data by default, making a full reset the most effective way to erase information.

Businesses that handle customer data, financial records or intellectual property must comply with data protection regulations. They could use certified data-wiping tools that meet the United States National Institute of Standards and Technology’s guidelines for media sanitisation or the US Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers’ standard for sanitising storage. These guidelines are globally recognised.

Many companies also choose third-party data destruction services to verify compliance and enhance security.

Physical destruction

If the data is highly sensitive, physically destroying the storage medium (such as a hard drive) is the most secure option. Common methods include degaussing (using a strong magnetic field), shredding, disintegration, melting, and drilling.

However, some of these techniques can be hazardous if not handled by professionals. They also make a hard drive or device unsuitable for resale and instead require it to be taken to a waste recovery centre so the rare earth metal components can be recovered.

Certified recycling services

Use reputable e-waste recyclers who adhere to strict data destruction protocols to ensure your information does not fall into the wrong hands. Look for certifications such as R2, e-Stewards, or AS/NZS 5377, which ensure compliance with industry security standards. An online database run by sustainable electronics organisation SERI of R2-certified facilities around the world can help with this.

Safe selling and donating practices

Before selling or donating devices, conduct a thorough data wipe. Be cautious of devices linked to cloud accounts, and remove all personal information to prevent unauthorised access. Resetting alone may not be enough.

Legal and regulatory considerations for businesses

Different regions have strict data-protection laws that impose legal and financial penalties for improper disposal of sensitive data.

It’s important for businesses to consider the legal standards for handling and disposing personal information in whatever region they’re operating in, whether that be Europe, the United States, Australia or elsewhere.

Before recycling or selling an old device, take the necessary steps to ensure your data is completely erased. Identity theft, financial fraud and data breaches are real risks. But they can be prevented with the right precautions.

A few extra steps now can protect your information and ensure responsible recycling.

Ritesh Chugh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Selling your old laptop or phone? You might be handing over your data too – https://theconversation.com/selling-your-old-laptop-or-phone-you-might-be-handing-over-your-data-too-251613

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Amid the chaos of the tariff crisis and the dark clouds internationally, there is a potential silver lining for Australian mortgage holders.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Monday pointed out that the markets were expecting several cuts in Australia’s interest rates this year, including one next month. There has been one cut so far, in February.

“Markets are now expecting around four interest rate cuts in Australia this calendar year”, Chalmers told a news conference. There was even a “more than 50% expectation in the markets that the next Reserve Bank interest rate cut in May might be as big as 50 basis points”.

While saying he didn’t predict or pre-empt Reserve Bank decisions, Chalmers nevertheless highlighted what the markets are expecting.

The next meeting of the Reserve Bank is on May 19-20, so a cut would be after the May 3 election.

Chalmers said the “whole world” was trying to get their heads around the impacts of these “bad decisions” on tariffs.

Releasing updated Treasury modelling of the impact, Chalmers said it expected big hits to American growth and to Chinese growth, as well as a spike in American inflation.

“We expect more manageable impacts on the Australian economy but we still do expect Australian GDP to take a hit, and we expect there to be an impact on prices here as well”.

Chalmers stressed the uncertainty around the modelling and about the economic impacts more generally. “Clearly, a series of decisions are still to be taken around the world when it comes to how countries may or may not retaliate to the decisions taken and announced by President Trump”.

The Treasury modelling says: “The effects on the Australian economy are expected to be modest, however, some parts of the agriculture, energy, mining and durable manufacturing sectors will be more adversely affected than others”.

“Australia’s real GDP is estimated to decline by 0.1 per cent and inflation to increase by 0.2 percentage points in 2025 relative to a baseline scenario with no tariffs. Over the medium-term Australia’s GDP is permanently lower; while the effect on inflation is temporary.

“The direct effects of the United States tariff changes (from bilateral trade) are expected to be small.

“Most of Australia’s exposure to US tariffs comes from reduced demand for Australian exports from major trading partners including China, Japan, South Korea, and India.

“The indirect effects of US tariffs on Chinese demand accounts for almost 80 per cent of the total impact on Australian GDP.”

Government to promise $1 billion for mental health, with emphasis on youth

Returning to Labor’s core issue of health, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Tuesday will promise $1 billion for free mental health services that would fill gaps in the system.

This includes

• $225 million for 31 new and upgraded Medicare Mental Health Centres

• More than $200 million for 58 new, upgraded or expanded headspace services

• $500 million for 20 Youth Specialist Care Centres for young people with complex needs, and

• $90 million for more than 1,200 training places for mental health professionals and peer workers.

The government says the new network of Youth Specialist Care Centres would ensure young people in “the missing middle” received needed specialist help. It would mean those with complex mental health needs such as personality disorders, eating disorders and early psychosis would be able to ongoing and intensive care outside hospital.

Dog day for Dutton

Saying you got it wrong is never harder than in an election campaign. Peter Dutton bowed to the inevitable in dropping his plan to force Canberra public servants back into the office, but fronting the media for the mea culpa on Monday was painful.

“I have apologised for the decision we took in relation to work from home,” he said. He added, with false optimism, “Labor’s run this scare campaign and I think we bring an end to that today.”

It wasn’t the only pain of the day for the opposition leader, who needs – to borrow his own election slogan – to get his campaign “back on track”. The message from Newspoll, the poll many Liberals take most notice of, was bad. Labor had extended its lead in a week, from 51%-49% in two-party terms to 52%-48%. This is close to the result of the 2022 election, and can only alarm the Liberal campaigners.

Some Liberals, disappointed with the Coalition campaign so far, are recalling John Howard’s mantra: you can’t fatten the pig on market day. “There’s not much evidence the work has been done,” one says.

As of late Monday, Dutton had still not produced the modelling for his controversial gas reservation scheme, which has made it more difficult for candidates to explain the policy to voters.

On another front, the Liberals have also failed to do their work properly in vetting candidates. They’ve had to disendorse their candidate for the Sydney Labor seat of Whitlam, Ben Britton.

Previously Britton had said women should be removed from combat positions in the defence force. “Their hips are being destroyed because they can’t cope with the carrying of the heavy loads and the heavy impacts that’s required for doing combat-related jobs,” he said, among other comments attacking “diversity and equity quotas” for weakening Australia’s defence.

In previous elections, parties have had to remove candidates after previous embarrassing comments have turned up. Surely the Liberals would have learned to be scrupulous in vetting. But in the New South Wales Liberal organisation, it seems to take a long time for the messages to get through.

.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Election Diary: Jim Chalmers highlights expectations of May interest rate cut – after the election – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-jim-chalmers-highlights-expectations-of-may-interest-rate-cut-after-the-election-253733

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chen Zhao, ARC DECRA Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania

One of the biggest challenges in predicting Antarctica’s deeply uncertain future is understanding exactly what’s driving its ice loss.

A vast network of lakes and streams lies beneath the thick ice sheet. This water can lubricate the ice, allowing it to slide more rapidly toward the ocean.

Our new research shows “subglacial water” plays a far larger role in Antarctic ice loss than previously thought. If it’s not properly accounted for, future sea-level rise may be vastly underestimated.

Including the effects of evolving subglacial water in ice sheet models can triple the amount of ice flowing to the ocean. This adds more than two metres to global sea levels by 2300, with potentially enormous consequences for coastal communities worldwide.

Understanding the role of subglacial water

Subglacial water forms when the base of the ice sheet melts. This occurs either due to friction from the movement of the ice, or geothermal heat from the bedrock below.

The presence of subglacial water enables ice to slide over the bedrock more easily. It can also cause further melting under ice shelves, leading to even faster ice loss.

So it’s crucial to understand how much subglacial water is generated and where it goes, as well as its effect on ice flow and further melting.

But subglacial water is largely invisible. Being hidden underneath an ice sheet more than two kilometres deep makes it incredibly difficult to observe.

Scientists can drill boreholes through hundreds to thousands of metres of ice to get to it. But that’s an expensive and logistically challenging process.

Alternatively, they can use ice-penetrating radar to “see” through the ice. Another technique called laser altimetry examines changes in the height of the ice at the surface. Bulges might appear when lakes under the ice sheet fill, or disappear when they empty.

More than 140 active subglacial lakes have been identified beneath Antarctica over the past two decades. These discoveries provide valuable insights. But vast regions — especially in East Antarctica — remain unexplored. Little is known about the connections between these lakes.

What we did and what we found

We used computer simulations to predict the influence of subglacial water on ice sheet behaviour.

We used two computer models:

• an advanced ice sheet model that simulates how the ice sheet flows and responds to climate.
• a specialised hydrology model that predicts subglacial water production and flow.

Then we explored how different assumptions about subglacial water pressure affect ice sheet dynamics. Specifically, we compared scenarios where water pressure was allowed to change over time against scenarios where it remained constant.

When the effects of changing subglacial water pressure were included in the model, the amount of ice flowing into the ocean under future climate nearly tripled.

These findings suggest many existing sea-level rise projections may be too low, because they do not fully account for the dynamic influence of subglacial water.

Our research highlights the urgent need to incorporate subglacial water dynamics into these models. Otherwise we risk significantly underestimating the rate and magnitude of future sea-level rise.

In the video below, the moving dark lines show where grounded ice begins to float. The left panel is a scenario where subglacial water is not included in the ice sheet model and the right panel is a scenario that includes the effects of evolving subglacial water.

A looming threat

Failing to account for subglacial water means global sea-level rise projections are underestimated by up to two metres by 2300.

A two-metre rise would put many coastal cities in extreme danger and potentially displace millions of people. The economic damage could reach trillions of dollars, damaging vital infrastructure and reshaping coastlines worldwide.

It also means the timing of future tipping points are underestimated too. This is the point at which the ice sheet mass loss becomes much more rapid and likely irreversible. In our study, most regions cross this threshold much earlier, some as soon as 2050. This is deeply concerning.

The way forward

Understanding Antarctica’s hidden water system is challenging. The potential for rapid, catastrophic and irreversible ice loss remains.

More observations are needed to improve our models, particularly from remote regions such as East Antarctica. Continuing to gather information from boreholes, ice-penetrating radar and satellites will help us better understand how the underside of the ice sheet behaves. These techniques can then be combined with computer simulations to enable more accurate projections of future ice loss and sea-level rise.

Our new research shows integrating subglacial water dynamics into ice sheet models is a top priority. Understanding this hidden threat is crucial as the world grapples with the consequences of global warming especially rising seas.

Chen Zhao is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award. Dr Zhao is affiliated with Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP), at the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, supported under the Antarctic Science Collaboration Initiative program.

Ben Galton-Fenzi is also affiliated with Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP), at the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), supported under the Antarctic Science Collaboration Initiative program, and the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, supported under the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative, both based at the University of Tasmania.

– ref. Antarctica’s hidden threat: meltwater under the ice sheet amplifies sea-level rise – https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-hidden-threat-meltwater-under-the-ice-sheet-amplifies-sea-level-rise-250780

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Griffin, Professor, Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, The University of Queensland

Australians are being urged to roll up their sleeves for a flu vaccine amid rising cases of influenza.

It’s an opportune time to think about other vaccines too, particularly because some vaccines can be given at the same time as the flu vaccine.

One is the COVID vaccine.

Should you get another COVID shot?

More than five years since COVID was declared a pandemic, we hear much less about this virus. But it’s still around.

In 2024 there were 4,953 deaths involving COVID. This is nearly 20% lower than in 2023, but still nearly five times that of influenza (1,002).

Vaccines, which do a very good job at reducing the chances of severe COVID, remain an important tool in our ongoing battle against the virus.

Case numbers don’t tell us as much about COVID anymore as fewer people are testing. But based on other ways we monitor the virus, such as cases in ICU and active outbreaks in residential aged care homes, there have essentially been two peaks a year over recent years – one over summer and one over winter.

This doesn’t mean we can predict exactly when another wave will happen, but it’s inevitable and may well be within the next few months. So it’s worth considering another COVID vaccine if you’re eligible.

Who can get one, and when?

There are several risk factors for more severe COVID, but some of the most important include being older or immunocompromised. For this reason, people aged 75 and older are recommended to receive a COVID booster every six months.

In the slightly younger 65 to 74 age bracket, or adults aged 18 to 64 who are immunocompromised, booster doses are recommended every 12 months, but people are eligible every six months.

Healthy adults under 65 are eligible for a booster dose every 12 months.

Healthy children aren’t recommended to receive boosters but those who are severely immunocompromised may be eligible.

What COVID shots are currently available?

We’ve seen multiple types of COVID vaccines since they first became available about four years ago. Over time, different vaccines have targeted different variants as the virus has evolved.

While some vaccine providers may still offer other options, such as the older booster that targeted the Omicron variant XBB.1.5, the recent JN.1 booster is the most up-to-date and best option.

This is a relatively recently updated version to improve protection against some of the newer strains of COVID that are circulating. The new booster only became available in Australia in late 2024.

This booster, as the name suggests, targets a subvariant called JN.1. Although JN.1 has not been the dominant subvariant in Australia for some time, this shot is still expected to provide good protection against circulating subvariants, including new subvariants such as LP.8.1, which is descended from JN.1.

While it’s great we have an updated booster available, unfortunately uptake remains poor. Only 17.3% of people 75 and over had received a COVID vaccine in the six months to March.

Getting a flu and COVID shot together

Data from more than 17,000 people who completed a survey after receiving the JN.1 booster shows that while 27% reported at least one adverse event following vaccination, the majority of these were mild, such as local pain or redness or fatigue.

Only 4% of people reported an impact on their routine activities following vaccination, such as missing school or work.

If you choose to get the flu vaccine and the COVID vaccine at the same time, they’ll usually be given in different arms. There shouldn’t be a significant increase in side effects. What’s more, getting both shots at the same time doesn’t reduce your immune response against either vaccine.

Now is the ideal time to get your flu vaccine. If you’re eligible for a COVID booster as well, getting both vaccines at the same time is safe and can be very convenient.

We’re conducting trials in Australia, as are scientists elsewhere, of combined vaccines. One day these could allow vaccination against COVID and flu in a single shot – but these are still a way off.

If you’re not sure about your eligibility or have any questions about either vaccine, discuss this with your GP, specialist of pharmacist. Australian state and federal government websites also provide reliable information.

Paul Griffin has been the principal investigator on many vaccine clinical trials and received speaker honoraria and been a member of medical advisory boards for vaccine manufacturers. He is also a scientific advisory board member and director of the immunisation coalition.

– ref. Do I need another COVID booster? Which one should I choose? Can I get it with my flu shot? – https://theconversation.com/do-i-need-another-covid-booster-which-one-should-i-choose-can-i-get-it-with-my-flu-shot-252914

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Hartigan, Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney

Financial markets around the world have been slammed by the Trump adminstration’s sweeping tariffs on its trading partners, and China’s swift retaliation.

Share markets have posted their biggest declines since the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, as fears of US recession surged. Iron ore, copper, oil, gold and the Australian dollar have all tumbled.

On Wall Street, leading indices have fallen around 10% since the tariffs were announced, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 20% from its recent peak. European and Asian markets have also slumped.

In Australia, the key S&P/ASX 200 slid another 4.2% on Monday to levels last seen in December 2023, taking its three-day losses since the announcement to more than 7%.

Why are markets reacting so badly?

Financial markets reacted so negatively because the tariffs were much larger than expected. They represent the biggest upheaval in global trade in 80 years.

Many traders were hoping the tariffs would be used mainly as a bargaining tool. But comments by US President Donald Trump that markets may need to “take medicine” seem to suggest otherwise.

The tariffs are expected to weaken economic growth in the US as consumers pare back spending on more expensive imports, while businesses shelve investment plans. Leading US bank JP Morgan has put the chance of a US recession as high as 60%.

This comes at a time when the US economy was already looking fragile. The highly regarded GDPNow model developed by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank indicates US March quarter GDP will fall 2.8%, and that was before the tariff announcement.

Worries about global growth

Fears of a recession in the United States and the potential for a global downturn has led to a broad sell-off in commodity prices, including iron ore, copper and oil. Further, the Australian dollar, which is seen as a barometer for risk, has fallen below 60 US cents in local trading – its lowest level since 2009.

While the direct impact of tariffs on Australia is expected to be modest (with around 6% of our exports going to US), the indirect impact could be substantial. China, Japan and South Korea together take more than 50% of Australia’s exports, and all have been hit with significantly higher tariffs.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Monday that the direct impact on the Australian economy would be “manageable”.

The full effect on Australia will depend on how other countries respond, and whether we can redirect trade to other markets.

The rapid decline in the Australian dollar will help offset some of the negative effects associated with a global downturn and the fall in commodity prices.

We can also expect some interest-rate relief. Economists are now predicting three further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank, starting in May. This brings economists into line with financial market forecasts.

Read more:
US tariffs will upend global trade. This is how Australia can respond

Hang in there, markets will recover

Watching equity markets tumble so dramatically can be unsettling for any investor. However, it is important to note that equity markets have experienced many downturns over the past 125 years due to wars, pandemics, financial crises and recessions. But these market impacts have generally been temporary.

History suggests that over the long term, equity prices continue to rise, supported by growing economies and rising incomes.

The key thing for investors to remember is to not panic. Now is not the time to decide to switch your superannuation or other investments to cash. This risks missing the next upswing while also crystallising any current losses.

For example, despite the steep market sell-off in March 2020 as the first COVID lockdowns came into effect, the Australian share market had completely recovered those losses by June 2021.

It is good practice for investors to regularly reassess their risk profile to make sure it is right for their current stage of life. This means reducing the allocation to riskier assets as investors get closer to retirement age, while also maintaining a cash buffer to avoid having to sell assets during more turbulent periods such as now.

Super funds are exposed to global risks

The current sell-off has highlighted a potential issue facing the superannuation industry.

So much of our superannuation is now invested in global equity markets, mostly in the US, because Australia’s superannuation savings pool – at more than A$4 trillion – has outgrown the investment opportunities available in Australia.

Another issue facing the superannuation industry is the growth of cyber attacks, with several funds targeted in a recent attack. Given the massive size of the assets held by some funds, it would seem they need to improve their security to be on par with that of the banking system.

Luke Hartigan receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Financial markets are tanking. Here’s why it’s best not to panic – https://theconversation.com/financial-markets-are-tanking-heres-why-its-best-not-to-panic-253929

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rohan Best, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, Macquarie University

Over the weekend, Labor promised to subsidise home batteries by 30%. This would save about A$4,000 per household up front for an average battery. The scheme has a goal of one million batteries by 2030, costing an estimated $2.3 billion.

The promise was received broadly favourably as a measure to help with cost of living pressures and encourage the broader shift to clean energy. Labor’s policy has some similarity to an earlier Greens pledge. Last month, the Coalition hinted it was working on its own home battery plan. Opposition leader Peter Dutton has attacked Labor’s plan, claiming the subsidies would benefit the rich.

Dutton makes a good point. Upfront subsidies have to be well targeted. If they’re not, they could easily go to wealthier households and leave poorer ones behind.

To fix it, Labor should start with lower subsidies – and means test them.

What’s the fuss about home batteries?

Homes with batteries can use stored solar energy instead of grid energy, or charge from the grid when power is cheap and use it when grid power is expensive. They can reduce power bills by around $1,000 a year.

Over 300,000 Australian households already have a home battery. Uptake was already accelerating in Australia and overseas, as battery prices fall and power prices climb.

If this policy leads to 1 million batteries by 2030 as Labor hopes, they would boost grid stability, reduce demand for expensive peak power from gas generators and even avoid the need to build some new transmission lines. These would be positive – if the benefits can be spread fairly.

Subsidies must be properly targeted

Caution is necessary, because we have seen very similar issues with previous schemes.

When solar panels were expensive in the 2000s, many state governments offered subsidies to encourage more households to put them on their roofs. On one level, this worked well – one third of all Australian households now have solar. But on another, it failed – richer households took up solar subsidies much more than poorer, as my research has shown. As solar prices have fallen, this imbalance has partly been corrected.

Home batteries are now in a similar situation. Installing an average sized home battery of between 5 and 10 kilowatt hours can cost less than $10,000, without the proposed federal subsidy. But this upfront cost means it’s currently largely wealthy households doing it, as I have shown in other research.

If Labor’s policy isn’t properly targeted, wealthier households are more likely to take it up. This is because they can more easily afford to spend the remaining cost. Studies on electric and other vehicle subsidies in the United States show at least half of the subsidies went to people who would have bought the vehicle regardless. That’s good for wealthy households, but unfair to others.

Targeting has advantages for governments, too. Proper targeting would reduce the cost to the public purse.

So who should be eligible?

Wealthier households are likely to be able to afford home batteries without the subsidy – especially as costs fall.

The cost of living crisis has hit less wealthy households hardest. A home battery policy should focus heavily on giving these households a way to reduce their power bills.

How can governments do this? Largely by means-testing. To qualify for the subsidy, households should have to detail their financial assets.

To begin with, a policy like this should only be eligible for households outside the top 25% for wealth.

What about the 31% of Australians who rent their homes? This diverse group requires careful thought.

Governments may have to offer extra incentives to encourage landlords to install home batteries. The solar roll-out shows landlords do benefit, as they can charge slightly higher rent for properties with solar.

How much should subsidies be?

Labor’s election offering of a 30% subsidy is too generous.

While home batteries can cost more than $10,000, cheaper battery options are now available and state incentive schemes are also emerging. Western Australia, for instance, will have its own generous battery subsidy scheme running before July 1.

Some households might be able to get subsidies at both state and national levels, which would cover most of the cost of a smaller battery.

When governments offer high subsidies at the start of a new scheme, there’s a real risk of a cost blowout.

To avoid this, governments should begin with the lowest subsidy which still encourages household investment. If low subsidies lead to low uptake, the government could then raise subsidies after an annual review.

Another option is to vary how much the subsidy is based on household wealth. Lower wealth households get higher subsidies (say $2,500) while higher wealth households get a much lower subsidy (say $500).

Governments could even consider equitable reverse auctions, where households with similar wealth compete for subsidies. Governments can then choose lower bids in the interest of cost-effectiveness.

At present, Labor’s policy would give higher subsidies for larger batteries. This isn’t ideal. On solar, there’s a lack of evidence higher subsidies lead to larger solar systems, while households with more wealth tend to get larger solar systems.

Good start, improvement needed

Labor’s home battery policy has been welcomed by many in the energy sector. But as it stands, we cannot be sure it will fairly share the benefits of home batteries.

If Labor or the Coalition does offer a well-targeted home battery policy, it would be world leading. Over time, it would directly help with the rising cost of living and ensure less wealthy households benefit.

Rohan Best previously received funding from the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

– ref. Batteries for all, not just the rich? Labor’s home battery plan must be properly targeted to be fair – https://theconversation.com/batteries-for-all-not-just-the-rich-labors-home-battery-plan-must-be-properly-targeted-to-be-fair-253445

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra James, Research Fellow, Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University

News feeds have been flooded with reactions to Adolescence, Netflix’s newest viral hit. Released in March, the limited series racked up over 66 million views in just two weeks, making it the platform’s most-watched limited series to date.

The show follows the arrest of a 13-year-old boy accused of murdering a young girl. It hints at potential radicalisation through the “manosphere” – pointing to emojis, incels and influencers like Andrew Tate.

From the BBC, to Rolling Stone, Harper’s Bazaar, and a range of Reddit threads, Adolescence has quickly become one of the most talked-about UK series in recent memory. While some of the buzz reflects its gripping cinematography and performances, much of it centres on the show’s depiction of online dangers and the risks for young boys exposed to this content.

The show has reignited debate about boys and their relationship to digital spaces, particularly social media. The UK prime minister even backed a proposal to screen the series in schools for free, alongside calls for school smartphone bans – measures already in place in parts of Australia.

This public reaction to Adolescence reveals a broader social anxiety about boys, sex and the digital world. But while the public reaction focuses on fear and internet restrictions, evidence shows that young people – boys included – are already engaging with the digital world in complex, thoughtful ways.

A history of moral panic

The same anxiety underpins Australia’s world-first ban on social media for under-16s – framed as a way to protect young people from sexual content, harmful gender roles, and the influence of platforms like Instagram and TikTok. The federal education minister has described social media as a “cesspit” from which children must be protected.

Yet this policy was introduced in direct response to a rise in women being killed by their intimate partners. It’s a subtle but powerful misdirection – one that offers a political fix while avoiding the more difficult work of addressing men’s violence.

Instead, this policy response draws on a history of moral panic about young people and the internet. Young people are a “problem” we can “fix”, while ignoring deeper social and cultural issues.

This framing of boys and the internet ignores their capacity, skills and how they engage in the digital world. It also ignores the many ways in which they learn about relationships.

Most importantly, it risks further marginalising boys from the conversations and education they urgently need.

Young people engage with online spaces thoughtfully

Our research with young people and experts shows that teens engage with online spaces far more thoughtfully than they’re often given credit. They know how to assess credibility, search for diverse sources and navigate content in ways that reflect their needs.

This process – of searching, comparing, evaluating – isn’t passive consumption. It’s an important part of how young people develop and find space to think about their identities, sex and relationships.

Their engagement is often nuanced: they weigh content against other information, test it against their own experience, and assess how trustworthy or relatable a source might be.

In a context where young people routinely report receiving inadequate education on sex and relationships – via parents or school-based programs – online spaces play an important role in helping them to fill these gaps.

These platforms often provide the only accessible way for young people to explore aspects of their identity, sexuality and relationships.

Boys are left out

Some of our other research shows that cisgender, heterosexual boys are often left out of conversations about sex, relationships and consent. Such conversations could give them space to ask questions, express uncertainty and give adults a chance to hear what the boys are thinking.

Instead of engaging boys with empathy or curiosity, we tend to talk at them, as if they alone are the problem, rather than talking with them.

When pornography is demonised, we also shut down the possibility of honest discussion. This leaves boys, who are often too afraid to ask questions, to interpret what they’re seeing without support. That silence creates a vacuum, one increasingly filled by figures like Tate. The “self-proclaimed misogynist”, with more than 10 million followers on Twitter, is known for promoting harmful views about women, violence and sexual assault.

Banning access to social media won’t fix this; it only deepens the lack of meaningful engagement with what young people might be seeing online.

Educators are also nervous about broaching these topics. This is hard in an environment where talking to kids about sex remains taboo and who is responsible for having these conversations is unclear. Should it fall to schools? Parents? Police?

How we can support young people

What’s needed are policies and education that support youth educators to address this effectively. This also means meeting boys where they are and providing all young people with the digital and relational skills to navigate these issues.

Young people don’t need Adolescence to understand the internet – they already do. What they need is support, space to ask questions and skills to navigate the ideas they’re exposed to, both online and in the world around them. That requires brave policies that prioritise education and equip them with critical digital literacy.

And if we’re serious about supporting young people, we need to stop pretending the problem starts with them.

Alexandra James receives funding from The Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care and Lifestyles Australia.

Andrea Waling receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care.

Lily Moor receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care.

– ref. What our reaction to Adolescence tells us about our fear of boys, sex and the internet – https://theconversation.com/what-our-reaction-to-adolescence-tells-us-about-our-fear-of-boys-sex-and-the-internet-253746

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitie Kuempel, Lecturer, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University

As climate change wreaks havoc with the world’s oceans, future production of fish, crustaceans and other aquatic organisms is under threat.

Our new research shows how this disturbance will play out for Australia’s prawn industry, which is concentrated in Queensland. We found by 2100, sea level rise threatens to flood 98% of the state’s approved prawn areas.

The problem is not confined to prawns – Queensland barramundi farming is also at risk from sea-level rise. Climate change also poses challenges for other major seafood industries in Australia, including salmon in Tasmania.

Australian seafood is vital to our culture and diets, and the national economy. We must take steps now to ensure the aquaculture industry thrives in a warmer world.

Spotlight on Queensland prawns

Aquaculture refers to breeding, rearing and harvesting fish, crustaceans, algae and other organisms in water. Australia’s aquaculture industry is expected to be worth A$2.2 billion by 2028–29.

Aquaculture can involve a variety of methods, from ponds and sea cages to indoor tank systems and even giant ships.

Aquaculture is one of Queensland’s fastest-growing primary industries – partly due to burgeoning production in prawn farming.

Queensland is also expected to experience a 0.8m sea-level rise by 2100, under a high-emissions scenario. Our research investigated how this could affect the state’s aquaculture industry.

We did this by examining existing data on coastal inundation and erosion from sea-level rise, combined with data on current and future aquaculture production areas.

We found 43% of sites where aquaculture production is currently occurring are at risk from sea-level rise. Prawn farming is the most vulnerable.

About 98% of areas approved for prawn farming in Queensland are expected to be inundated by seawater by 2100. The risk includes 88% of areas currently producing prawns. Prawns are grown in large ponds on land near the coast with access to saltwater, which makes them particularly vulnerable to inundation. Annual prawn production losses due to sea-level rise could reach up to A$127.6 million by century’s end.

Inundation and coastal erosion can cause breaches in pond walls compromising their structural integrity. These risks may be amplified when sea-level rise coincides with coastal flooding. Rising seas can also increase salinity in surrounding soils and groundwater, further affecting ponds. Other aquaculture infrastructure, such as hatcheries, buildings, and roads, may also be disrupted.

The Gold Coast region – a prawn production hub – is particularly vulnerable. Damage caused by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred highlights the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure to extreme weather. This will only worsen as the planet warms.

Queensland barramundi farms also face a serious threat. Some 44% of areas producing barramundi are likely to be exposed to inundation, causing up to A$22.6 million in annual production losses. Meanwhile, two of Queensland’s designated “Aquaculture Development Areas” – regions earmarked by the state government for industry expansion – may be unsuitable due to future sea levels. Both are located in the Hinchinbrook Shire Council area.

Beyond rising seas

Globally and in Australia, climate change is posing myriad challenges to seafood farmers.

Rising water temperatures stress animals such as salmon, lowering oxygen levels which slows growth rates and increases their risk of disease. Such depletion is a particular concern in already low-oxygen environments, such as Tasmania’s Macquarie Harbour.

Ocean heatwaves can cause mass fish deaths and devastate production. In Tasmania in February, more than 5,500 tonnes of dead fish were dumped at southern Tasmanian waste facilities – a problem linked to warmer water temperatures.

Dead and decomposing fish can further alter oxygen levels in water, spread disease to wild populations and attract scavengers. In the Tasmanian case, fish remains washed up on public beaches, angering the public and leading to calls for greater industry regulation.

Extreme weather further complicates aquaculture operations. Storms, flooding and abnormal rain patterns can affect water salinity which impacts species growth and survival. They can also damage vital infrastructure, which may allow animals to escape.

This occurred in 2022, when repeated flooding and disease outbreaks on oyster farms in New South Wales led to complete stock losses, prolonged farm closures and workers being laid off.

Surviving a warmer future

Not all aquaculture operations will suffer under climate change. Warming waters can lead to longer growing seasons in temperate regions. It can also expand suitable habitat for tropical species such as tilapia, mussels and oysters. Regions previously inhospitable to aquaculture may become viable production zones.

For the countries and producers that are expected to suffer, those that plan for and adapt to climate shifts can minimise losses.

Key steps industry and government can take include:

• planning farms in lower-risk areas and relocating vulnerable sites

• implementing climate-resilient infrastructure and restoring coastal ecosystems near farms to buffer against climate impacts

• expanding to include diverse species and selectively breeding stock that can tolerate the changing conditions

• strategic government policies and planning, financial incentives, and investment in resilient infrastructure to help the industry stay ahead of climate risks.

With the right strategies, Australia’s aquaculture industry can adapt to a changing climate and continue to contribute to food security and community wellbeing.

Caitie Kuempel receives funding from the Blue Economy Cooperative Research Centre. She is affiliated with BECRC Marine Spatial Planning project.

Marina receives Griffith University International Postgraduate Research Scholarship and Griffith University Postgraduate Research Scholarship as and HDR PhD Student

– ref. 98% of Queensland prawn areas at risk of inundation by rising seas this century – https://theconversation.com/98-of-queensland-prawn-areas-at-risk-of-inundation-by-rising-seas-this-century-253330

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rod McNaughton, Professor of Entrepreneurship, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

When retail executives start swearing during earnings calls, something is clearly amiss. That’s what happened recently when the CEO of United States-based luxury furniture retailer Restoration Hardware saw his company’s share price plunge by more than 25% in after-market trading.

The cause? Donald Trump had just declared “Liberation Day”, announcing sweeping new tariffs on nearly all imports. For companies like Restoration Hardware – which rely on suppliers in China and Vietnam, and now face tariffs of over 50% – the impact was immediate: higher costs, disrupted supply chains and enormous uncertainty.

New Zealand exporters were spared the worst, with exports facing only the 10% baseline tariff under the new regime. But the lesson is clear. In today’s world, the real threat isn’t always direct exposure, it’s volatility.

Trump’s tariffs sparked a nosedive in share markets and reignited concerns about the reliability of global trade. And while tariffs may rise and fall, uncertainty seems here to stay. This is why an idea first developed by journalist and author Jane Jacobs in the 1980s deserves renewed attention.

In Cities and the Wealth of Nations, Jacobs argued that sustainable economic growth isn’t driven by national policy or protectionism but by what she called “import replacement”: where cities and regions develop the capacity to produce goods they once imported.

The concept is often confused with import substitution, where governments impose tariffs or subsidies to protect domestic industries. But Jacobs’ model is different. It’s not about shielding firms from competition. It’s about growing new capabilities from the ground up.

A smarter response to volatility

Import replacement happens when entrepreneurs identify goods currently sourced from elsewhere and start producing them locally, not because tariffs artificially advantage them but because they’ve found a better way to meet local needs. Over time, this drives specialisation, innovation, and eventually new exports.

Jacobs believed this bottom-up process was the real engine of economic resilience. And she was right. In an era marked by pandemics, war, climate volatility and policy shocks, the ability to adapt quickly and locally is more valuable than ever.

New Zealand saw this first-hand during COVID-19. When global supply chains stalled, we found ourselves unable to access essentials from PPE to packaging, diagnostic swabs to digital hardware. Some firms responded with ingenuity. Others waited. In many cases, local capacity simply wasn’t there.

That experience revealed an uncomfortable truth: trade agreements alone don’t secure economic sovereignty. It depends on the capability to make, adapt and substitute when the system falters.

Some entrepreneurs are already seizing the moment. In the US, for example, founder of activewear brand XX-XY Apparel, Jennifer Sey, argues that trade disruption creates space for ethical, transparent supply chains closer to home. For her, localisation is not just risk management, it’s a business opportunity.

But rebuilding domestic capacity isn’t easy. It takes capital, skilled workers and time. And tariff-based incentives can vanish as quickly as they appear. That’s why the kind of import replacement Jacobs envisioned wasn’t a reactive policy tool but a long-term development strategy.

What import replacement could look like

The same logic applies to New Zealand. We are heavily dependent on imported goods in critical sectors like machinery, pharmaceuticals, digital infrastructure, fertilisers and food processing. If any of those supply chains is disrupted, we’re not just inconvenienced, we’re exposed.

To reduce that vulnerability, we need to think strategically. That might mean developing domestic capacity to manufacture essential health products, or supporting entrepreneurs working on substitutes for imported fertilisers or packaging materials.

It could mean encouraging research institutions to develop substitutes for materials we currently source offshore.

Universities and other research organisations can play a vital role. By collaborating with startups and small or medium-sized businesses, they can accelerate innovation. From prototype to production, tertiary institutions can help translate research into real-world resilience.

Public procurement could also be better leveraged. Government contracts could reward suppliers who help reduce import dependency and build options into our domestic supply chains.

Crucially, we need to map our vulnerabilities. Which imports are critical to key sectors? Where are we reliant on a single country or supplier? What could we produce regionally, if not nationally, with the right insight and capability?

Resilience is not retreat

This is not an argument against trade. New Zealand’s economy depends on it. But if we’ve learned anything from COVID and now from “Liberation Day”, it’s that openness without options is a liability.

Tariffs may make headlines. But they won’t build the necessary capabilities in the US or globally for the next crisis. That kind of economic resilience comes from the patient work of entrepreneurs in building, substituting, learning and adapting, at speed and close to home.

Jacobs reminded us that economies don’t grow stronger by walling themselves off. They grow stronger when they learn to make what they once had to import and, in doing so, discover what the world might want next.

Rod McNaughton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Looking inward: why Trump’s tariffs highlight the need for NZ to build local capacity – https://theconversation.com/looking-inward-why-trumps-tariffs-highlight-the-need-for-nz-to-build-local-capacity-253826

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Peter Dutton has raised the white flag on his controversial attempt to force Canberra public servants back into the office, with the opposition now saying there will be no change in current arrangements.

The shadow minister for the public service, Jane Hume, said: “We have listened, and understand that flexible work, including working from home, is part of getting the best out of any workforce”.

The Coalition’s public service policy, released Sunday, says a Dutton government will “support flexible working arrangements for the public service, including working from home, by respecting existing flexible working arrangements, and enshrining them in future agreements.

“There will be no mandated minimum number of days for public servants to work in the office.”

Originally the Coalition wanted to get public servants back into the office five days a week, with Hume saying they had shown a “lack of respect for the work that went into earning the taxes the spend”.

But on Sunday, Hume said, “Many professional men and women in the Commonwealth public service are benefiting from flexible working arrangements, including working from home, which allow them to make valuable contributions to serving Australians.

“We know the importance of flexible work for many Australians, and have always supported the private sector making its own decisions on flexible work arrangements.”

The move to try to return the public servants to the office has been a bugbear for the opposition from the start. Dutton landed in further trouble when he suggested women who were adversely affected by the policy could share jobs.

Many voters feared if the return-to-the-office policy was introduced for public service workers, it could quickly lead to more pressure in the private sector. Many private employers have been trying to limit work-from-home arrangements.

Working from home has become particularly entrenched since the pandemic, and the Liberals’ hard line threatened to lose them votes widely, especially among women.

Dutton has progressively been qualifying and walking back the opposition’s proposal. Now, it’s been ditched completely.

The Coalition’s public service policy would reduce the federal public service by 41,000 jobs over five years, while protecting frontline services and national security positions.

Penny Wong paints Dutton as a ‘risk’ in an uncertain world

The Liberals like to see national security issues as one of their strong suits. But Labor – thanks to US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs – is now boldly casting Dutton as posing a risk to Australia in a changing, uncertain world.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong on Sunday described the opposition leader as stubborn, arrogant and always believing he knows best.

“That leads him to make bad calls,” Wong told the ABC. “You see that in his stubborn insistence on a deal with President Trump at whatever cost. You see that in a reckless and risky linking of defence into this trade dispute.

“What this showed us was this was a man who makes bad calls and this is a man who is a risk to this country when we face these uncertain times.”

Dutton has insisted he would have more chance of winning an exemption from US tariffs than Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Trying to make his point, he was loose in his language last week. Notably, he said one of the things he would invoke was our defence relationship with the US.

This was immediately interpreted as a threat. Later it was clarified he meant offering something positive to the US. But in an election campaign, the clarification seldom catches up with the original statement.

Meanwhile, former Prime Minister John Howard weighed in to say the Australian-American defence relationship should never be brought into such a negotiation.

Albanese is also saying the government will try to change Trump’s mind about applying tariffs to Australia. Like Dutton, he would have Australia’s critical minerals in the negotiating mix, although exactly how is not clear.

The Liberals say if Dutton became PM he’d visit Washington within 60 days. There’d be a lot of pressure on the new prime minister to get a deal.

If Labor is returned, Albanese would no doubt make an effort. But one suspects when push came to shove, he’d be reluctant to cede much, given the direct hit from the 10% tariff on Australian exports is relatively mild.

The 2025 Liberal Party is a narrow congregation

Petro Georgiou, one of the Liberals’ high-profile backbench moderates during the Howard years, died last week. His death reminded people – if they needed reminding – that the Liberal Party is a very different beast these days.

Howard talked about the party being a “broad church”, embracing both conservatives and moderates. Howard, himself, of course, was no moderate but there were a number of small-“l” liberals with strong voices in his government – among them Robert Hill, John Fahey (former NSW premier), and Michael Wooldridge.

While some powerful moderates were in the tent, others were kicking up the sand around it from the backbench. Prominent among them was Georgiou, a former adviser to Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser. He and colleagues took on Howard over various issues, especially on refugees.

Fast forward to the Abbott government and, despite Tony Abbott’s conservatism, moderates were prominent: Julie Bishop, Christopher Pyne, Malcolm Turnbull, George Brandis.

One significant reason for the important place the moderates had in the past was the nature of the Liberal Party. Its strongholds were affluent, urban areas, where voters were above average in income and education.

But from Howard’s time on, Liberal leaders increasingly turned their eyes elsewhere. Howard had his “battlers”, and pursued voters from the right in Queensland. Abbott went after his “tradies”. Dutton is looking to outer suburbia to make his gains.

Turnbull, the only moderate among the last four Liberal leaders, has, ironically, undermined the moderates. His trenchant criticisms of subsequent leaders have given many small-“l” liberal voters permission to vote teal.

Last election, the teals dispatched several moderate Liberals, including Josh Frydenberg, who lost to independent Monique Ryan in Georgiou’s old seat of Kooyong. (Frydenberg hadn’t started out as a moderate, but effectively became one.) Other moderates, most notably Simon Birmingham, have exited politics before or at this election.

One of Georgiou’s strongest allies back in the day was Victorian MP Russell Broadbent. Broadbent, who was also close to Turnbull, lost preselection for his seat of Monash and defected to the crossbench in 2023. He’s now running in Monash as an independent against the new Liberal candidate Mary Aldred (whose father was in parliament).

In Monash, the Liberals don’t just have Broadbent snapping at their heels, but a teal candidate, as well. Broadbent says his old party should be glad he’s in the contest.

“The teal would have won it otherwise,” he claims. The Liberals consider the seat pretty safe, but they’ll be thankful he is giving them his preferences.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Election Diary: Dutton backs down on working-from-home crackdown after outcry threatens to cost votes – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-dutton-backs-down-on-working-from-home-crackdown-after-outcry-threatens-to-cost-votes-253732

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll, conducted March 31 to April 4 from a sample of 1,250, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the March 27–29 post-budget Newspoll. This is Labor’s biggest lead in Newspoll since May 2024. This poll was mostly taken before Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 3 AEST.

Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one) and 12% for all Others (steady). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 52–48. As One Nation flows have been adjusted towards the Coalition, Labor was probably lucky in the rounding to get to 52–48.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped two points to -11, with 53% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval was up one point to -17. Albanese led as better PM by 48–40 (49–38 previously).

Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term, in which the plus signs are Newspoll data points and a trend line has been fitted.

The 52–48 Labor leads in Newspoll and Redbridge are the best for Labor during the election period from anyone except Morgan, which has had three polls in a row with Labor ahead by at least 53–47. The polls are trending in Labor’s favour, with Labor ahead in the five polls released since March 30.

In the two trading days after Trump’s tariff announcement, US stock markets suffered brutal falls, and the Australian market is expected to slump on Monday. I believe these falls will undermine Trump’s economic credibility and make it more difficult for the more pro-Trump major party (the Coalition).

There are three electoral events next week as we approach the May 3 election. On Monday at 8pm, the electoral roll closes. People need to register or update their details by then to be able to vote.

On Thursday, candidate nominations close, and on Friday they are declared. It will benefit pollsters to know exactly which candidates are running in particular seats.

Redbridge poll: Labor gains for a 52–48 lead

A national poll by Redbridge and Accent Research for the News Corp tabloids, conducted March 28 to April 1 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Redbridge poll that was conducted March 13–24. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (up one) and 19% for all Others (up two).

By 43–40, voters did not think the Labor government was focused on the right priorities, but this was a big improvement from 52–30 in November 2024. By 43–38, voters did not think the Coalition led by Dutton is ready for government (a reversal from 40–39 agreement last November).

By 40–39, voters preferred the Coalition’s fuel excise cut over Labor’s income tax cut. By 33–28, voters thought Albanese and Labor’s economic vision was better for them than Dutton and the Coalition’s. By 31–29, they thought Labor’s economic vision better for Australia than the Coalition’s.

On type of government, 31% wanted a majority Coalition government and 25% a majority Labor government. The tabloids didn’t provide enough detail on overall figures for minority governments.

Resolve breakdowns and duelling Goldstein seat polls

The post-budget national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers had a 50–50 tie by respondent preferences, representing a 2.1% swing to the Coalition since the 2022 election.

State breakdowns from this poll, which had a large sample of 3,083, had a 50–50 tie in New South Wales (51.4–48.6 to Labor in 2022), a 52–48 Labor lead in Victoria (54.8–45.2 to Labor in 2022) and a 58–42 Coalition lead in Queensland (54.0–46.0 to the Coalition in 2022). In marginal seats, the Coalition led by 51–49 (50.8–49.2 to Labor in 2022).

The February Resolve poll had given the Coalition a 55–45 lead, and is a clear outlier on the poll graph. We should be wary of analysis that measures results in the March poll against the January and February polls.

Labor had two big improvements by demographics between January/February and March, going from 58–42 behind to a 50–50 tie with men, and from 55–45 behind to a 52–48 lead with those aged 35 to 54.

I previously reported that a JWS poll in teal-held Goldstein had the Liberals leading teal Zoe Daniel by 54–46. The Poll Bludger reported last Thursday that a uComms poll for Climate 200, conducted March 18–25, gave Daniel a 54–46 lead. This was a two-point gain for Daniel since late February. Seat polls are unreliable.

NSW, Victorian and Queensland state polls

I covered the federal NSW DemosAU poll on Friday. The state poll, conducted March 24–26 from a sample of 1,013, gave Labor a 54–46 lead (54.3–45.7 to Labor at the March 2023 state election). Primary votes were 34% Coalition, 33% Labor, 14% Greens and 19% for all Others.

Labor incumbent Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier by 42–24. By 43–38, respondents did not think NSW was headed in the right direction.

A Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the February and March federal Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000, gave the Coalition 41% of the primary vote (down one since January), Labor 24% (up two), the Greens 14% (up one), independents 14% (down three) and others 7% (up one).

This was a small improvement for Labor from the dire January result, but The Poll Bludger gave the Coalition about a 54–46 two-party estimated lead. Liberal Brad Battin led Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan by 36–23 as preferred premier (36–27 in January).

Battin’s net likeability improved five points to +9, while Allan’s net likeability has been dropping since her first poll as premier in December 2023. She’s now at -32 net likeability, down eight points since January.

A Redbridge Queensland state poll, conducted March 17–25 from a sample of 1,507, was provided to The Courier Mail. It gave the Liberal National Party a 56.5–43.5 lead (53.8–46.2 to the LNP at the October 2024 state election). Primary votes were 44% LNP, 27% Labor, 12% Greens, 10% One Nation and 7% for all Others.

LNP Premier David Crisafulli was at net +29 favourable (46% favourable, 17% unfavourable, 25% neutral). Labor leader and former premier Steven Miles was at net -13 favourable (39% unfavourable, 26% favourable, 22% neutral).

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor gains 52–48 lead in Newspoll and Redbridge as poll trend to Labor continues – https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-52-48-lead-in-newspoll-and-redbridge-as-poll-trend-to-labor-continues-253739

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor of Higher Education Policy, Monash University

Last year, the Coalition made the surprise decision to oppose Labor’s plans for new international student caps.

On Sunday, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton proposed an even more radical policy of his own to limit the number of international students in Australia.

He announced a combination of tighter enrolment limits, increased visa application fees and changes to temporary graduate visas, which allow some former students to remain in Australia to work.

This is aimed at either deterring potential students from applying or stopping them from going to their preferred university.

What’s the Coalition’s policy?

The Coalition and Labor similarly argue high numbers of international students are putting pressure on housing markets.

But the opposition is also concerned there are too many international students in some courses. They say some courses can have international enrolments of up to 80%.

To address both problems, the Coalition proposes a maximum international student enrolment share at public universities (which is almost all universities in Australia). This would be around 25% of all commencing (or new) enrolments. Other education providers, such as private colleges and TAFEs, would face separate caps.

The Coalition estimates this would result in 30,000 fewer new international students per year than Labor’s policy.

What is happening under Labor?

Last year, Labor wanted to give the education minister wide powers to cap international student enrolments by education provider, campus and course.

Apart from some exempt categories (such as postgraduate research students), vocational and higher education providers would have been allocated 270,000 commencing enrolments between them for 2025. This is compared to 323,000 commencing enrolments in 2023.

But the bill was opposed by the Greens and the Coalition. So Labor had to move to plan B.

Using its migration powers, in December 2024, the government issued a ministerial direction on how the Department of Home Affairs should process applications for student visas. This is arguably a de facto cap.

Immigration officials have been instructed to prioritise student visa applications for all institutions until they near the individual caps that were blocked by the Senate last year.

Once visa applications are at 80% of each provider’s cap, subsequent applications go into a slower visa processing stream.

Read more:
International student numbers in Australia will be controlled by a new informal cap. Here’s how it will work

Signs applications are already down

Prospective international students cannot apply for a visa unless an education provider gives them a “confirmation of enrolment”.

We are seeing signs the ministerial direction is leading to fewer “confirmations of enrolment” and resulting applications.

My analysis below shows student visa applications for January and February 2025 are well down on equivalent months in 2024, 2023 and 2019 (pre-Covid).

In late 2024, demand was below the boom times of 2023 and early 2024, but still above 2019.

What does the Coalition’s plan mean for unis?

Labor’s policy for university caps uses a formula based on past international student enrolments. The Coalition’s caps would be a percentage of total new enrolments. They expect this to be around 25%, but will set the precise number after consultation and receiving the most recent data.

Coalition education spokesperson Sarah Henderson has expressed concerns high concentrations of international students have “not been good for our country or for the education outcomes of Australian students”.

Based on 2023 enrolment data – the latest that also includes domestic students – 35% of new university students in Australia were from overseas. But several universities had international student shares above 50%.

On the Coalition’s estimates, their policy would see no more than 115,000 new international students in public universities each year, down from 139,000 under Labor’s approach.

The Coalition acknowledges this will particularly affect the highly ranked Group of Eight universities, including The University of Melbourne and The University of Sydney. Dutton argues these universities have admitted “excessive numbers” of international students.

Coalition caps for private providers

One reason the Coalition gave for not supporting Labor’s legislation last year was the disproportionate effect on private education providers, which include both vocational and higher education colleges.

Under the Coalition’s plan, private providers will still have caps, but they will be different than those for universities. Exactly how this will work is unclear. Their combined caps will be “at most 125,000”, according to the Coalition. Under Labor’s policy, their combined cap is a little higher, at about 132,000.

A complicating factor here is the government’s existing migration policies have smashed demand for vocational education – as my analysis shows.

This means many vocational education providers may not be able to fully use the places allocated under Labor’s indicative cap. These shortfalls may create space to increase caps for other private education providers.

Visa application fees

Last year, in a bid to cut international student numbers, Labor more than doubled the student visa application fee from A$710 to $1,600. They subsequently reversed this for Pacific Islander applicants.

Under the Coalition, the visa application fee would more than triple to $5,000 for applicants to Group of Eight universities. For students seeking entry to other providers, the fee would be $2,500.

Temporary graduate visas

The Coalition also promises a “rapid review” of the temporary graduate visa program. This would be to prevent its “misuse” as a way to gain access to the Australian labour market and permanent migration.

Labor has already reduced the number of years former students can stay on temporary graduate visas, reduced the age limit to be granted a visa from 50 to 35 years, and increased the minimum English requirements.

Applications for temporary graduate visas are down on past levels.

While Labor’s changes made some potential visa applicants ineligible, recent applications could be the calm before the storm. Large numbers of 2023 and 2024 international students will complete their courses in the coming years, with many of them eligible for temporary graduate visas under current policies.

International education will take a hit regardless

The Coalition’s international student election policy is less of a surprise than its refusal to back Labor’s caps last year. They have foreshadowed tough policies many times in recent months.

But the proposed increased visa application fees and enrolment caps would be painful for both students and education providers.

Universities have repeatedly argued international students are not major causes of the housing crisis. They have also argued international education is a valuable export and it is being undermined by policy changes out of Canberra. But this has had no impact on the stance of either Labor or the Coalition.

So, the number of international students in Australia will fall regardless of the federal election result. The decline is set to be greater under a Coalition government. But regardless of the election result, the days of unlimited international student numbers are over.

Andrew Norton works for Monash University, which is a member of the Group of Eight and would be significantly affected by the policies discussed in this article.

– ref. The Coalition has announced an even more radical plan to cut international students than Labor. Here’s how it would work – https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-has-announced-an-even-more-radical-plan-to-cut-international-students-than-labor-heres-how-it-would-work-253919

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In the government’s latest initiative on energy prices, Anthony Albanese on Sunday will promise that if re-elected, Labor will reduce the cost of installing a typical home battery by 30% from July 1.

This would cut about $4,000 from the upfront cost of an 11.5 kWh battery, which is the typical household size.

Small businesses and community facilities would be eligible for the discount, as well as households.

The government says the discount would save a household with existing rooftop solar panels up to $1,100 off their power bill every year. For those with new solar panels and battery, the saving would be up to $2,300 annually – up to 90% of a typical power bill.

More than one million installations would be expected by 2030 under the measure. The initiative would cost an estimated $2.3 billion over the forward estimates, including in the 2025-26 budget.

The discount would be applied on installing virtual power plant-ready battery systems beside new or existing rooftop solar until 2030. The absolute value of the discount would decline over the five years in line with the expected fall in the cost of batteries.

Albanese said the measure was “good for power bills and good for the environment”.

Labor’s number one priority is delivering cost-of-living relief. That’s why we want to make sure Australians have access to cheaper, cleaner energy.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen said:

The contrast is clear – a re-elected Albanese government will take pressure off household energy bills, while Peter Dutton’s Liberals will spend $600 billion on a nuclear plan that drives power bills up.

Mixing politics and sport can be risky on campaign trail

For the second election campaign in a row, a Liberal leader has claimed a victim on the football field.

At least, some relieved Liberals might be saying, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton felled a member of the media, not a child.

Dutton, campaigning in Darwin on Saturday with a few million dollars in hand to promise for the local footy ground, was happy to have a kick with kids for the cameras.

But the ball hit a TV camera, which went into the face of Channel Ten cameraman Ghaith Nadir. A federal policeman helped with a bandage for Nadir’s forehead. Dutton promised a compensatory beer.

In the 2022 campaign, Prime Minister Scott Morrison joined some youngsters in their junior soccer training.

Becoming rather too competitive, Morrison crashed into a boy, and they both ended on the ground. It made for plenty of jokes about the man who’d admitted in the campaign that “I can be a bit of a bulldozer”. The clip was replayed again and again.

After Saturday’s incident, Dutton quipped, “If the prime minister kicked it, he would have told you that it didn’t hit anyone”.

Last week, Albanese stepped back off a stage, appearing to fall, during an event. He later insisted he hadn’t fallen. “I stepped back onto a step, I didn’t fall off the stage,” he said. “Just one leg went down, and I was sweet.”

Way back in 1984, there was another unfortunate incident on the sporting field during a campaign. That time, the perpetrator was a journalist and the victim was Prime Minister Bob Hawke.

Hawke had called an election a few days before playing in a cricket match against the parliamentary press gallery. A ball from Gary O’Neill, a journalist with the Melbourne Herald, caught the edge of Hawke’s bat and smashed into his glasses.

Hawke went to the Canberra Hospital, where (after he jumped the queue) a patch was put on his eye. He returned to the match, watching from the sidelines.

At least he scored 27 before the incident. However, the accident set him back for the early days of what was an eight-week campaign.

Over the years there are plenty of examples of leaders losing their (physical) footing.

A few months before the 2007 election, Prime Minister John Howard tripped and fell on his hands on the way to a radio interview in Perth.

Visiting India in 2012, Prime Minister Julia Gillard tumbled when her shoe got stuck in grass. She explained:

For men who get to wear flat shoes all day every day, if you wear a heel it can get embedded in soft grass and when you pull your foot out the shoe doesn’t come.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Election Diary: Albanese promises 30% discount on household batteries in latest energy bill help – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-albanese-promises-30-discount-on-household-batteries-in-latest-energy-bill-help-253736