Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Flavio Macau, Associate Dean – School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University

Coles is reducing its product range by at least 10%, a move that has sparked public backlash and renewed discussions about the role of supermarkets in the cost-of-living crisis.

In cutting the range of items on offer Coles is moving closer to Aldi and Costco’s strategy to grow exclusive brands and limit product range.

The goal is to boost profitability by reducing costs, increasing sales, and increasing control over the supply chain.

Coles is unlikely to cut traditional brands, especially those from companies with significant market power like Coca-Cola or Nestle. In a battle between giants, the status quo is likely to prevail.

Smaller suppliers are likely to bear the load as they struggle to renew contracts and face increased competition from home brands.

To fully understand the reasons behind this move and its impact on the cost of living, insights from psychology, finance, and supply chain management come in handy.

Why cut back on brands?

The Coles move is all about profitability.

Over the past decade, competition in the Australian supermarket sector has intensified. Coles’ market share declined from 31% to 25% between 2013 and 2023, while Woolworths’ share fell from 41% to 37%.

This shift reflects the rise of Aldi, which now holds approximately 10% of the market, and its strong position in the home brand space.

To boost profitability with a smaller customer base, Coles needs to find ways to enhance its earnings. This can be achieved by raising prices, cutting costs, or increasing the market share of its home brands.

Raising prices vs cutting costs

Raising prices is not a viable option, as consumers are already struggling with high food prices inflation and the rising cost-of-living. However, there is room to cut costs.

One approach is to squeeze suppliers, but again this is unlikely to be effective. The consumer watchdog, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), is holding an inquiry into concerns that the supermarkets are using their market power to the disadvantage of their suppliers and consumers.

Additionally, as producers exit unprofitable businesses, supermarkets risk supply chain disruptions due to increased market concentration among surviving suppliers.

Another strategy is to reduce complexity. The more product variety there is, the more complicated and expensive it becomes to manage. Tasks such as stocking shelves, adjusting prices, maintaining inventory, managing delivery schedules, and disposing of expired products all contribute to higher costs.

Anna Croft, Coles’ operations and sustainability officer, explained the strategy when telling investors in November that 13 basic table salts could be cut to five.

Simplifying the product range can also boost sales. When faced with too many options, consumers can experience “choice overload”. A widely recognised study in psychology found that people are more likely to make a purchase when presented with a limited selection rather than an extensive array of choices.

Shifting to home brands

Simplifying the range will likely focus on items where Coles has a home brand. Home brands now account for 33.5% of Coles’ sales, with 6,000 products. About 1,100 were added over the past year.

This move is a response to competitors like Aldi and Costco. While Coles and Woolworths manage over 25,000 items in their stores, Aldi limits its offering to about 1,800 products.

Coles is focusing on its home brands to better compete with non-branded offerings from Aldi. In its report to the ACCC, the supermarket highlights its investment in expanding its own-brand range to provide more affordable prices, up to 40% cheaper than similar proprietary brands.

While consumers may have fewer choices, it is expected that they will benefit from better prices.

This shift towards home brands is not exclusive to Australia. In the United States, private label sales hit a record in 2023 across a range of items from beauty products to general merchandise. In the United Kingdom, home brand products now account for over half of supermarket sales.

Have we been here before?

Almost 10 years ago, Woolworths and Coles started a significant move to adjust their price positioning in response to the competition. Along with Metcash (IGA), they reduced product ranges in 2015–16 by 10% to 15% to simplify the weekly grocery shop for consumers.

At that time, the culling of products put suppliers under pressure (as now) while consumers were ambivalent: some wanted more brand variety and others preferred less.

As history repeats itself, it will be interesting to see if Woolworths and Metcash will follow the latest move from Coles and how customers, suppliers, and the ACCC will react this time.

A/Prof Flavio Macau is affiliated with the Project Management Institute (PMI)

– ref. As Coles slashes its product range, will well-known brands disappear from supermarket shelves? – https://theconversation.com/as-coles-slashes-its-product-range-will-well-known-brands-disappear-from-supermarket-shelves-249274

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacinta Humphrey, Research Fellow in Urban Ecology, RMIT University

Golf courses are sometimes seen as harmful to the environment. According to the popular notion, the grass soaks up too much water, is cut too short and sprayed with dangerous chemicals. But in reality, golf courses can act as safe havens for native wildlife, especially in cities.

Cities are home to a wide range of plants and animals, including 30% of Australia’s threatened species. But ongoing population growth and urban development threatens this biodiversity. We’re still losing green space and tree cover, leaving less habitat and resources for native birds, bats, possums, lizards, frogs, beetles and butterflies.

This is where golf courses can play a role. Australia is one of the golfing capitals of the world, with more than 1,800 active courses. These courses represent large, continuous green spaces often with native vegetation, mature trees, lakes and wetlands. Given their ubiquity, golf courses could help conserve urban biodiversity.

This week, the annual LIV Golf tournament returns to Grange Golf Club in South Australia. Grange is one of 30 Australian golf courses certified for its commitment to sustainability, partly due to its extensive woodland, natural habitats and wildlife. So what makes a golf course good or bad for biodiversity?

The gold in the rough

From a biodiversity perspective, the most valuable part of a golf course is the area all golfers seek to avoid: the “rough”. These spaces between the green, manicured fairways can include remnant or restored bushland with dense leaf litter, long grass, thick shrubs, and both living and dead trees. This vegetation is often native and features a diversity of plant species.

Collectively, this can provide a range of resources for native wildlife including food, shelter and tree hollows for nesting. In Melbourne, research found golf courses provided better habitat for wildlife than nearby suburban streets and parklands. They were also home to a greater diversity of birds and bats.

Golf courses also have relatively little human activity. Golfers are only allowed on the course during certain hours of the day. Courses usually do not allow dogs. And there are few cars and roads, so there’s less noise and light pollution than in other urban areas. This makes golf courses pretty attractive to native animals looking for somewhere to live.

Many golf courses are heavily irrigated to ensure high-quality playing surfaces. This ample water supply (typically from recycled sources) is fantastic for wildlife, especially in warmer and drier climates. Birds are known to flock to water resources during drought – a behaviour likely to become more common under future climate change.

Much-feared water hazards for golfers, such as lakes and ponds, actually provide valuable habitat for aquatic birds, frogs, fish and insects. These water bodies are particularly important in cities where wetlands are regularly cleared to make way for new houses, shops and roads.

Importantly, once constructed, golf courses are rarely threatened by clearing or development. In Perth, research found golf courses helped protect native vegetation as development spread through surrounding suburbs. The mere existence of a golf course can help secure a home for native species for many decades to come.

Golf courses are not a perfect solution

However, not all land on golf courses is valuable for wildlife. Large open areas such as fairways typically only benefit species adapted to life in cities such as the aggressive noisy miner.

Golf courses can also harbour pests such as cane toads, rats and common mynas. These undesirable species may pose a threat to native biodiversity.

The use of pesticides and fertilisers can affect soil quality, contaminate water sources, and make frogs sick.

Frequent lawn mowing can reduce insect diversity, particularly among bugs, bees, wasps and ants. This is likely to have flow-on effects for animals that feed on insects, and for flowering plants that depend on insects for pollination and seed dispersal.

Some urban golf courses may also be physically isolated from other suitable habitats, making it hard for wildlife to safely move around to find food, water and a mate. To get in and out, animals may need to cross busy roads or move through dangerous areas where they are exposed to predators such as cats and foxes.

So, how can we best manage golf courses for biodiversity?

In an ideal world, golf courses should only be constructed in developed areas. That’s because constructing courses in natural, undisturbed areas is likely to involve clearing vegetation for fairways, greens, car parks and club houses.

As a result, the biodiversity value of a golf course increases the closer it is to a city.

Existing golf courses can help protect biodiversity by retaining and restoring diverse bushland patches in the rough. Important conservation areas can also be fenced off and deemed “out of bounds” to golfers.

The use of harsh chemicals should be reduced to minimise risks to soil, water and wildlife. “Organic golf courses” overseas are already making progress in this space, but they are far from mainstream.

Finally, efforts must be made to connect golf courses to nearby parks and reserves through wildlife corridors, road underpasses, and special crossing structures such as rope bridges. This will enable animals to safely move around the urban landscape.

Many golf courses now have biodiversity management plans and are working hard to make their practices more sustainable. In other cases, disused golf courses are even being converted into conservation reserves, such as the Yalukit Willam Nature Reserve in Elsternwick, Melbourne.

While golf courses cannot replace natural habitats, they can provide a useful alternative for many species that call our cities home.

Jacinta Humphrey receives funding from the Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment, the Ecological Society of Australia, BirdLife Australia, Australian Wildlife Society, and the Field Naturalists Club of Victoria.

– ref. Golf courses can be safe havens for wildlife and beacons of biodiversity – https://theconversation.com/golf-courses-can-be-safe-havens-for-wildlife-and-beacons-of-biodiversity-246673

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Albanese government is set to mount a major effort to win an exemption from a proposed 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports to the United States foreshadowed by President Donald Trump.

Assuming Trump follows through on the move, it will put major pressure on the prime minister to match the success of the Turnbull government in 2018 when Trump put a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminium in his first administration.

Speaking to reporters travelling on Air Force One, Trump flagged he would make the tariff announcement on Monday (Washington time). He said the tariffs would start “almost immedciately” on all foreign steel and aluminium imports.

The Australian government on Monday was scrambling to put together its response, although government sources insisted it was not surprised and was well prepared.

Cabinet met on Monday morning where the Trump comments were presumably discussed.

Trade Minister Don Farrell said on Monday:

We have consistently made the case for free and fair trade, including access into the US market for Australian steel and aluminium.

Our bilateral economic relationship is mutually beneficial – Australian steel and aluminium is creating thousands of good paying American jobs, and are key for our shared defence interests too.

Sources said the government had been making representations on steel and aluminium for months.

Last week, Farrell said he was seeking talks with incoming US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, but that would have to wait until he was confirmed.

In the lobbying for special treatment, the government will stress that the US has a trade surplus with Australia.

In 2023-24, the US imported about 240,000 tonnes of steel products from Australia, valued at US$250 million (A$400 million).

US imports of Australian aluminium peaked in 2019 at about 270,000 tonnes and declined to around 83,000 in 2024. The three-year average imports from Australia were 167,000 tonnes per year, valued at US$496 million (A$791 million).

Nationals leader David Littleproud said the issue was a test for Anthony Albanese and Australia’s ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd.

Littleproud said:

When you make disparaging comments about leaders in other parts of the world sometimes it comes back to bite you.

And unfortunately it could be the Australian economy that gets the bite.

This is a test to see whether Anthony Albanese’s previous remarks and Kevin Rudd’s previous remarks about President Trump has done this nation harm.

Littleproud said if Rudd was “not the right person to have these discussions, then we should be mature enough as a country to send someone who can have those discussions to get that carveout”.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles has just returned from Washington.

At a news conference there, he was asked whether Australia was concerned about direct reciprocal tariffs or a flow-on effect from them.

Marles said:

We obviously are engaging with the United States in respect of our bilateral relationship in respect to tariffs.

We’ll obviously press Australia’s interest in our case in respect of that. But none of this is a surprise. We know what President Trump’s platform was as he went into the American election.

He’s been very clear about his policy direction. And so I think we all understand that is going to see changes in American policy in relation to this. From an Australian point of view, we will continue to press the Australian case around the question of trade.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump is now flagging tariffs on steel and aluminium. Can Albanese win an exemption for Australia? – https://theconversation.com/trump-is-now-flagging-tariffs-on-steel-and-aluminium-can-albanese-win-an-exemption-for-australia-249476

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katrina McFerran, Professor and Head of Creative Arts and Music Therapy Research Unit; Director of Researcher Development Unit, The University of Melbourne

Many of us take pleasure in listening to music. Music accompanies important life events and lubricates social encounters. It represents aspects of our existing identity, as well as our hopes and dreams. It expresses emotions that cannot be explained with words. Music also distracts us from boredom and difficulty and helps us escape into another world.

Music seems to have a magical power: a wand to be waved that makes life feel better. But what if the power was not in the music itself? In fact, the power of music comes from our choices in what to listen to and the human agency we express in this act.

It can be seen as a placebo effect where the music is endowed with special powers by our minds. The qualities of the music are important. But as with all art, it is how we uniquely perceive the song that makes our experience powerful.

My research has shown most of us operate on autopilot when it comes to choosing music, often assuming previous music selections will have the same effect even under very different circumstances.

Stepping out of autopilot and being more intentional in the songs we chose can move from hoping the music will make you feel good, to knowing it will and seeing how it does.

Choose the right music for you

The way we experience music is personal. There is no one song that is going to make everyone feel the same.

Think about trying to pick a song to make you feel happy, or to listen to when you’re happy. If the power was in the musical qualities of the song itself, Pharrell Williams’ Happy might work. The song has several uplifting musical features: a simple but catchy melody; an energising rhythm emphasised by the singer clicking along; a lively tempo; and words that repeat the key idea.

It’s similar to Psy’s Gangnam Style, Katrina and the Waves’ Walking on Sunshine or ABBA’s Waterloo.

But just because these songs sound happy, do they make you feel happy? Would they make it into your personal top five pleasure-inducing tracks?

Your song selections are different to your friends because of the personal associations you have with them, including your personal taste. That’s why AI can’t generate the right songs for you if you ask it for “happy songs”.

You would be better off to start by looking at your own playlists and frequently played tracks to identify which ones actually make you feel good, personally.

Understanding meaning

It’s important to distinguish between pleasure-inducing tracks and meaningful songs.

Meaningful songs are linked to a range of emotions, identities, histories and social connections – but only some of those are pleasure inducing. Others connect to poignant and beautiful feelings such as grief and loss, whether that is missing home or missing people and creatures we love. This poignancy is distinct from hedonism, which is happiness without negative affect.

If you’re experiencing grief, for example, there may be a beauty in remembering your loved one, but it is connected to the pain of their absence. Choosing pleasure-inducing songs operates as an aesthetic distraction to take our mind away from the pain, which is a different (not necessarily worse or better) choice.

Sometimes meaning doesn’t come with a beautiful purpose. Like the love song that becomes the breakup song. Or the favourite artist whose death renders a song poignant rather than uplifting. Then the song may help with emotional processing, or it may not, it can just fulfil a desire for rumination – a thought we keep circling around without discharging the intensity or our perspective on it.

It might seem obvious that these events will change the way we feel when we listen to a song. But it can be surprisingly difficult to let go of music we love.

Sad songs can be enjoyable and/or a beautiful way of connecting to emotional experiences. But they can also intensify our negative emotions, which doesn’t always lead to resolution.

Being conscious and intentional in music choices is important, especially if you’re tending to ruminate. During down times in life, it is worth checking in after listening to make sure the song is helping you process and resolve, and not just intensify and maintain a negative state you would rather leave behind.

Finding what you love

But most days you are safe to let your instincts guide you. After all, there’s nothing more pleasurable than spending time listening to a banger.

In technical speak, we call these “preferred songs” – songs that might not be personally meaningful, or fill you with joy exactly, but they are just great tracks. Music you love, appreciate and rate.

But even identifying preferred songs is still personal. Despite what many people think, it’s very difficult to get agreement about what makes a good song. But it’s not difficult to identify the songs that you think are great. In fact, it’s a super fun thing to do.

Katrina McFerran has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the University of Melbourne to investigate this topic. She is a registered music therapist with the Australian Music Therapy Association.

– ref. Different songs for different days: why it’s important to actively choose the music for your mood – https://theconversation.com/different-songs-for-different-days-why-its-important-to-actively-choose-the-music-for-your-mood-246233

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katrina McFerran, Professor and Head of Creative Arts and Music Therapy Research Unit; Director of Researcher Development Unit, The University of Melbourne

Many of us take pleasure in listening to music. Music accompanies important life events and lubricates social encounters. It represents aspects of our existing identity, as well as our hopes and dreams. It expresses emotions that cannot be explained with words. Music also distracts us from boredom and difficulty and helps us escape into another world.

Music seems to have a magical power: a wand to be waved that makes life feel better. But what if the power was not in the music itself? In fact, the power of music comes from our choices in what to listen to and the human agency we express in this act.

It can be seen as a placebo effect where the music is endowed with special powers by our minds. The qualities of the music are important. But as with all art, it is how we uniquely perceive the song that makes our experience powerful.

My research has shown most of us operate on autopilot when it comes to choosing music, often assuming previous music selections will have the same effect even under very different circumstances.

Stepping out of autopilot and being more intentional in the songs we chose can move from hoping the music will make you feel good, to knowing it will and seeing how it does.

Choose the right music for you

The way we experience music is personal. There is no one song that is going to make everyone feel the same.

Think about trying to pick a song to make you feel happy, or to listen to when you’re happy. If the power was in the musical qualities of the song itself, Pharrell Williams’ Happy might work. The song has several uplifting musical features: a simple but catchy melody; an energising rhythm emphasised by the singer clicking along; a lively tempo; and words that repeat the key idea.

It’s similar to Psy’s Gangnam Style, Katrina and the Waves’ Walking on Sunshine or ABBA’s Waterloo.

But just because these songs sound happy, do they make you feel happy? Would they make it into your personal top five pleasure-inducing tracks?

Your song selections are different to your friends because of the personal associations you have with them, including your personal taste. That’s why AI can’t generate the right songs for you if you ask it for “happy songs”.

You would be better off to start by looking at your own playlists and frequently played tracks to identify which ones actually make you feel good, personally.

Understanding meaning

It’s important to distinguish between pleasure-inducing tracks and meaningful songs.

Meaningful songs are linked to a range of emotions, identities, histories and social connections – but only some of those are pleasure inducing. Others connect to poignant and beautiful feelings such as grief and loss, whether that is missing home or missing people and creatures we love. This poignancy is distinct from hedonism, which is happiness without negative affect.

If you’re experiencing grief, for example, there may be a beauty in remembering your loved one, but it is connected to the pain of their absence. Choosing pleasure-inducing songs operates as an aesthetic distraction to take our mind away from the pain, which is a different (not necessarily worse or better) choice.

Sometimes meaning doesn’t come with a beautiful purpose. Like the love song that becomes the breakup song. Or the favourite artist whose death renders a song poignant rather than uplifting. Then the song may help with emotional processing, or it may not, it can just fulfil a desire for rumination – a thought we keep circling around without discharging the intensity or our perspective on it.

It might seem obvious that these events will change the way we feel when we listen to a song. But it can be surprisingly difficult to let go of music we love.

Sad songs can be enjoyable and/or a beautiful way of connecting to emotional experiences. But they can also intensify our negative emotions, which doesn’t always lead to resolution.

Being conscious and intentional in music choices is important, especially if you’re tending to ruminate. During down times in life, it is worth checking in after listening to make sure the song is helping you process and resolve, and not just intensify and maintain a negative state you would rather leave behind.

Finding what you love

But most days you are safe to let your instincts guide you. After all, there’s nothing more pleasurable than spending time listening to a banger.

In technical speak, we call these “preferred songs” – songs that might not be personally meaningful, or fill you with joy exactly, but they are just great tracks. Music you love, appreciate and rate.

But even identifying preferred songs is still personal. Despite what many people think, it’s very difficult to get agreement about what makes a good song. But it’s not difficult to identify the songs that you think are great. In fact, it’s a super fun thing to do.

Katrina McFerran has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the University of Melbourne to investigate this topic. She is a registered music therapist with the Australian Music Therapy Association.

– ref. Different songs for different days: why it’s important to actively chose the music for your mood – https://theconversation.com/different-songs-for-different-days-why-its-important-to-actively-chose-the-music-for-your-mood-246233

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Suvradip Maitra, PhD Student, Australian National University

Late last year, ChatGPT was used by a Victorian child protection worker to draft documents. In a glaring error, ChatGPT referred to a “doll” used for sexual purposes as an “age-appropriate toy”. Following this, the Victorian information commissioner banned the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in child protection.

Unfortunately, many harmful AI systems will not garner such public visibility. It’s crucial that people who use social services – such as employment, homelessness or domestic violence services – are aware they may be subject to AI. Additionally, service providers should be well informed about how to use AI safely.

Fortunately, emerging regulations and tools, such as our trauma-informed AI toolkit, can help to reduce AI harm.

How do social services use AI?

AI has captured global attention with promises of better service delivery. In a strained social services sector, AI promises to reduce backlogs, lower administrative burdens and allocate resources more effectively while enhancing services. It’s no surprise a range of social service providers are using AI in various ways.

Chatbots simulate human conversation with the use of voice, text or images. These programs are increasingly used for a range of tasks. For instance, they can provide mental health support or offer employment advice. They can also speed up data processing or help quickly create reports.

However, chatbots can easily produce harmful or inaccurate responses. For instance, the United States National Eating Disorders Association deployed the chatbot Tessa to support clients experiencing eating disorders. But it was quickly pulled offline when advocates flagged Tessa was providing harmful weight loss advice.

Recommender systems use AI to make personalised suggestions or options. These could include targeting job or rental ads, or educational material based on data available to service providers.

But recommender systems can be discriminatory, such as when LinkedIn showed more job ads to men than women. They can also reinforce existing anxieties. For instance, pregnant women have been recommended alarming pregnancy videos on social media.

Recognition systems classify data such as images or text to compare one dataset to another. These systems can complete many tasks, such as face matching to verify identity or transcribing voice to text.

Such systems can raise surveillance, privacy, inaccuracy and discrimination concerns. A homeless shelter in Canada stopped using facial recognition cameras because they risked privacy breaches – it’s difficult to obtain informed consent from mentally unwell or intoxicated people using the shelter.

Risk-assessment systems use AI to predict the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring. Many systems have been used to calculate the risk of child abuse, long-term unemployment, or tax and welfare fraud.

Often data used in these systems can recreate societal inequalities, causing harm to already-marginalised peoples. In one such case, a tool in the US used for identifying risk of child mistreatment unfairly targeted poor, black and biracial families and families with disabilities.

A Dutch risk assessment tool seeking to identify childcare benefits fraud was shut down for being racist, while an AI system in France faces similar accusations.

Read more:
Algorithms that predict crime are watching – and judging us by the cards we’ve been dealt

The need for a trauma-informed approach

Concerningly, our research shows using AI in social services can cause or perpetuate trauma for the people who use the services.

The American Psychological Association defines trauma as an emotional response to a range of events, such as accidents, abuse or the death of a loved one. Broadly understood, trauma can be experienced at an individual or group level and be passed down through generations. Trauma experienced by First Nations people in Australia as a result of colonisation is an example of group trauma.

Between 57% and 75% of Australians experience at least one traumatic event in their lifetime.

Many social service providers have long adopted a trauma-informed approach. It prioritises trust, safety, choice, empowerment, transparency, and cultural, historical and gender-based considerations. A trauma-informed service provider understands the impact of trauma and recognises signs of trauma in users.

Service providers should be wary of abandoning these core principles despite the allure of the often hyped capabilities of AI.

Can social services use AI responsibly?

To reduce the risk of causing or perpetuating trauma, social service providers should carefully evaluate any AI system before using it.

For AI systems already in place, evaluation can help monitor their impact and ensure they are operating safely.

We have developed a trauma-informed AI assessment toolkit that helps service providers to assess the safety of their planned or current use of AI. The toolkit is based on the principles of trauma-informed care, case studies of AI harms, and design workshops with service providers. An online version of the toolkit is about to be piloted within organisations.

By posing a series of questions, the toolkit enables service providers to consider whether risks outweigh the benefits. For instance, is the AI system co-designed with users? Can users opt out of being subject to the AI system?

It guides service providers through a series of practical considerations to enhance the safe use of AI.

Social services do not have to avoid AI altogether. But social service providers and users should be aware of the risks of harm from AI – so they can intentionally shape AI for good.

The project was funded by the Notre Dame-IBM Technology Ethics Lab.

Suvradip Maitra is funded by an Australian Government Research Training Program Domestic Scholarship.

Lyndal Sleep was funded by the University of Notre Dame for this research. She is affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making and Society.

Paul Henman receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC). He is affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making and Society.

Suzanna Fay received funding from the Notre Dame-IBM Technology Ethics Lab for this project.

– ref. AI is being used in social services – but we must make sure it doesn’t traumatise clients – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-being-used-in-social-services-but-we-must-make-sure-it-doesnt-traumatise-clients-248555

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Niven Winchester, Professor of Economics, Auckland University of Technology

Donald Trump has already made good on his threat to impose an additional 10% tax on Chinese goods, and is due to announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports into the United States.

While he has paused proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for the time being, a trade war between the US and the rest of the world remains a real possibility.

Mexico, Canada and China responded to Trump’s tariff plans by drafting retaliatory tariffs and countermeasures. But Trump’s threatened tariffs extend well beyond North America and China.

During his 2024 election campaign he said all trading nations could expect similar treatment, and he explicitly stated his intention to target the European Union (EU):

They don’t take our cars, they don’t take our farm products, they take almost nothing and we take everything from them. Millions of cars, tremendous amounts of food and farm products.

While it’s true the EU exports more to the US than it imports, it’s simplistic to use bilateral trade balances as a gauge of the overall economic benefits. International trade allows countries to concentrate on producing the goods and services they do well, and to exchange them for ones more costly to produce domestically.

Ultimately, trade allows everyone to consume more. A trade war therefore makes nations worse off: tariffs divert trade flows and reduce the exchange of goods. And, of course, this filters down to affect ordinary household incomes.

Households worse off

The impact of a trade war on any given country will depend on several factors, including the share of a nation’s exports exposed to new tariffs, and the importance of trade to each economy.

Small countries tend to trade more than large ones because they specialise in producing a relatively small number of goods, and rely on trade to consume a variety of products.

To quantify the impacts of a trade war, I consider a scenario where the US imposes additional tariffs of 25% on all merchandise imports (the figure Trump has consistently used), and all other countries respond with similar tariffs on US goods.

I simulate the tariffs in a global model of production, trade and consumption similar to that used by the New Zealand Productivity Commission’s inquiry into improving economic resilience. The model uses input-output tables that describe production of 32 commodities in each country, and data on bilateral trade in each commodity between nations.

National-level impacts are measured by calculating the equivalent impact on aggregate household income. This metric converts the effects from the tariffs – including changes in product prices, wages and business profits – into changes in household income.

In New Zealand, the trade war decreases aggregate household income by 0.1% or NZ$322 million per year. Divided among the country’s nearly two million households, this means each household is worse off by NZ$163 per year.

Global income declines

The impacts of the simulated trade war are larger in North America. It decreases US annual aggregate household income by 1.5%, which equates to US$262 billion, or US$2,963 per household.

In Canada and Mexico, for which the US is both a major export market and source of imports, average household income decreases by 3.6% (US$2,963) and 4.6% (US$1,192), respectively, each year.

Across all nations, the tariff war results in an equivalent decrease in aggregate household income of 0.7% (US$414 billion) per year.

The simulated tariff war also results in a reshuffling of trade. New Zealand merchandise exports to the US decrease by NZ$4.4 billion, but exports to other nations increase by a similar amount (due to their price advantage relative to US goods).

Likewise, New Zealand merchandise imports from the US decrease by NZ$4.7 billion and imports from other nations increase by about the same amount. As a result, the trade war has little impact on New Zealand’s total exports and imports.

Aggregate trade changes are largest in the US, which imposes new tariffs on all its imports and faces new tariffs in all export markets. US merchandise exports and imports both decrease by around US$565 billion (NZ$1 trillion).

Overall, the modelling confirms the well known result that trade wars decrease global economic activity and routinely make all nations worse off.

Niven Winchester has previously received funding from the Productivity Commission and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade to estimate the impacts of potential trade policies. He is affiliated with Motu Economic & Public Policy Research.

– ref. NZ households will be slightly worse off if Trump triggers a trade war – new modelling – https://theconversation.com/nz-households-will-be-slightly-worse-off-if-trump-triggers-a-trade-war-new-modelling-249120

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natarsha McPherson, PhD Candidate in Spatial Ecology, University of Adelaide

On the vast expanse of the Nullarbor Plain in South Australia, two very different creatures live side by side – but not always peacefully.

One is the southern hairy-nosed wombat, a slow-moving nocturnal digger that loves its underground burrows. The other is the European rabbit: a small and speedy invader that has spread across the continent, often wreaking environmental havoc and creating its own networks of tunnels.

How do we know where these semi-subterranean creatures live, and how many there are? The answer is from the sky.

In new research published in Australian Mammalogy, we show a way to detect wombats and rabbits using satellites that take pictures of our planet from space. By studying high-resolution images from the likes of Google Earth and Bing Maps, we can spot the telltale signs of the burrows and warrens these creatures dig into the ground.

Why is it any of our business where wombats and rabbits live?

Knowing where wombats and rabbits live is important for conservation.

Wombats are unique Australian marsupials that need protection. Rabbits are an invasive species that often damage the land, eating too much vegetation and eroding soil.

Finding their warrens can help scientists and wildlife managers to understand where they live. This in turn helps to make better decisions about protecting native species and controlling pests.

How do you spot a warren?

Imagine looking down at the world from the window of an aeroplane. You might easily see rivers and roads, and even buildings.

But would you spot a hole in the ground? That’s the challenge we faced in our study of satellite images.

As it turns out, wombat warrens are relatively easy to spot. They are quite large and have clear trails leading in and out. The digging leaves mounds of lighter-coloured soil.

Rabbit warrens are trickier to find. They are smaller, lack trails, and can blend in with bare patches of dirt.

How well did we do?

By comparing satellite images with surveys conducted on the ground, we figured out we could accurately detect about 82% of wombat warrens from the photos. We weren’t quite as good at rabbit warrens: we could only spot 49%. Small rabbit warrens were particularly easy to miss.

One complicating issue was the fact that wombats and rabbits sometimes share the same burrow. Usually it’s the smaller, sneakier rabbits taking advantage of the large and sturdy tunnels dug by wombats.

This makes it even harder to figure out exactly who is living where. We could recognise shared warrens when we inspected them on the ground, but so far we can’t distinguish them from satellite photos.

What’s next?

Our research shows we can use satellites to map burrowing animal populations without ever setting foot in the outback. This saves time and money, and also reduces the the risk of disturbing wildlife while conducting research.

In the future, with higher-resolution satellite images and better software – using tools like machine learning – we may be able to detect and count burrows and warrens automatically. This could be a big change for wildlife conservation and pest control.

So next time you look up at the sky, remember that somewhere out there a satellite might be taking a picture of a sleepy wombat’s home – or a rabbit plotting its next move.

Natarsha McPherson received funding from the Australian Wildlife Society’s University Research Grant.

– ref. The Nullarbor is riddled with wombat and rabbit warrens. Scientists are watching them from space – https://theconversation.com/the-nullarbor-is-riddled-with-wombat-and-rabbit-warrens-scientists-are-watching-them-from-space-249359

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Neera Bhatia, Associate Professor in Law (Health Law), Deakin University

People looking for a sperm donor can go to a fertility clinic, ask a friend to donate or look for a donor online, including on an app or via social media.

Women in same-sex relationships, single women and others are choosing the online option for a number of reasons.

But this brings with it various challenges and risks. Here’s what to know first.

It’s a popular choice

Up to 4,000 children are estimated to have been born over the past ten years via one Australian sperm donation website alone.

In just 2022, sperm sourced via one private Facebook group reportedly resulted in 692 births.

Some donors and recipients choose to use online platforms because they want to form connections and friendships with the other party early on. In some cases, donors choose to remain in the lives of the recipient and any child born from their donation.

But some sperm donors go online to remain anonymous, an option not usually possible when donating through a fertility clinic.

Some people might use online sperm donation because the cost of accessing donor sperm at fertility clinics is too high in Australia. Some clinics charge a sperm donation management fee of about A$2,000. This allows people to access information about the donors they can choose from. Then there is the cost of insemination and of the sperm itself, which is about $2,500 out-of-pocket per cycle. Online sperm donation in Australia tends to be altruistic and does not cost anything.

People in rural or regional areas may live far from fertility clinics, making access challenging.

Then there’s often a shortage of donor sperm at clinics. In particular, there’s a lack of ethnic and cultural diversity in donors.

Whatever the reason for seeking sperm online, here are some issues to consider first.

1. Medical unknowns

Sperm donors at fertility clinics undergo medical, physical and psychological screening to reduce the risk of transmitting disease to a child.

However, online sperm donors may provide people with unscreened sperm that might be carrying sexually transmitted infections or inheritable genetic conditions.

This puts the recipient and the potential child at risk because of the lack of medical information about the donor.

2. Psychological, personal, social risks

People might be placed at risk when they agree to meet a potential online sperm donor in person. There have been reported cases where potential donors have pressured people into natural insemination (sexual intercourse) once they meet. This is despite donors initially agreeing to provide sperm for home insemination (using a syringe to inject the donor sperm into the vagina).

These safety and exploitation concerns are especially pertinent in cases of same-sex female couples and people who are same-sex attracted who might feel coerced or compelled to have sexual intercourse with a man to try to conceive a child.

In fertility clinics, state laws limit the number of individuals or families that can use a single donor’s sperm (from five to ten families depending on the state).

The nature of online sperm donation means there are no records kept about the number of children a donor contributes to conceiving. With no formal record keeping, one donor could potentially provide sperm to hundreds of people. This increases the chances of donor-conceived siblings unknowingly having children together later in life.

There might be cases where donors do not tell the truth about their identity or background, as happened in a case in Japan when a donor allegedly lied about his identity and education.

There might also be psychological harm when an agreement has been made about contact between the parties and that agreement is later disputed or disregarded.

3. Legally, it’s a grey area

A man who donates sperm to a fertility clinic has no legal rights or obligations to a child born as a result of this donation in Australia.

However, conceiving a child using informally donated sperm can be legally precarious. We are not aware of any reported cases in Australia of legal disputes about parentage that have involved online sperm donation. However, if the practice continues to grow, the courts may need to intervene if a donor is seeking to exercise some rights relating to the donor-conceived child against the mother’s wishes.

There was, however, a 2019 case that relates to sperm donation by a friend. Here, the High Court ruled a man who donated sperm informally to his friend was deemed the legal parent of a child. This resulted in the mother and her same-sex partner being prevented from relocating to New Zealand with the child and their sibling.

As each potential case will depend on its own set of unique circumstances, it’s best to take legal advice first.

4. What’s best for the child?

Many donor-conceived people want information about, and contact with, their donor. A lack of information, including medical information, can contribute to psychological, medical and social harms.

So people should carefully consider how this arrangement might impact any child conceived. This includes their potential desire to meet any siblings conceived using the same donor’s sperm.

Where to from here?

The decision to have a child using donor sperm is complex. When deciding how to access donor sperm, people may benefit from speaking to an accredited fertility counsellor about their options.

This may include accessing donor sperm through a fertility clinic, which are strictly regulated and licensed, and need to comply with state laws and ethical guidelines.

While accessing donor sperm through a regulated fertility clinic may be more costly and time-consuming, it is also markedly safer than online sperm donation.

However, some people may not want to access donor sperm through a fertility clinic, or this might not meet their needs. We need to understand why so we can try to do something about it.

If a person decides to access donor sperm online, they should have open and honest discussions with the potential donor about:

• their medical history

• what role they envisage in the future life of a child born using their sperm

• how all parties can keep records and contact information.

Before seeing a potential donor in person, they should also tell a family member, close friend or someone they can confide in about the meeting to ensure they are safe.

Taking these measures may help make accessing donor sperm online a positive experience for all involved.

Neera Bhatia receives funding from the UK Arts and Humanities Research Council for an unrelated project.

Catherine Mills has received industry research funding from Monash IVF, Ferring Pharmaceutical and Illumina. She is a bioethics consultant for VitroLife. She has received Australian government research funding from the ARC, NHMRC and MRFF. She does not receive private remuneration from any industry body.

Giselle Newton is a donor-conceived woman and is a member of Donor Conceived Australia.

Molly Johnston has received research funding from Monash IVF Group and Ferring Pharmaceuticals, and honoraria and travel fees from Gedeon Richter.

Karin Hammarberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Looking for a sperm donor online? 4 things to think about first – https://theconversation.com/looking-for-a-sperm-donor-online-4-things-to-think-about-first-246888

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John White, Associate Professor in Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Deakin University

Fire broke out in the Grampians National Park (Gariwerd) in December and raged for weeks. Then lightning strikes ignited fresh blazes late last month, which merged to form a mega-fire that’s not out yet.

This 168,000-hectare reserve, about 200km west of Melbourne, is a significant ecological and cultural landscape. Its ancient sandstone mountains and valleys maintain eucalypt woodlands and heathlands that support a rich diversity of plants and animals, making it a key conservation asset in Victoria.

Since 2008, our team has been monitoring mammal species annually in the Grampians. This long-term effort has allowed us to learn how species respond to wildfires, droughts and floods.

We commenced our research just two years after big fires swept through the park in 2006. We also witnessed the changes following more fires in 2013 and 2014.

So while many animals have lost much of their habitat to fire this summer, we know recovery is possible. But some may need help to cope with challenges ahead.

A terrible summer as multiple fires rage

The massive December wildfire in the park’s east burned for weeks, forcing evacuations in towns such as Halls Gap, and upending Christmas for many residents. By early January, that fire was contained – but only after burning about 76,000 hectares of the park and surrounding areas.

Then, on January 27, lightning strikes in the west ignited four fires that eventually merged, burning through the entire Victoria Range and some rural properties.

The full extent of damage is not yet known. But it’s already clear the fires have been devastating. They burned much of the same areas affected by the 2006 wildfires in the east and 2013 fires in the west, as well as long-unburned areas.

Combined, fires this big have not been observed in this landscape in the past 50 years.

What is the extent of the damage to the environment?

It’s difficult to determine how much of the park has burned so far this summer, because the shaded area on the state emergency map extends beyond the park’s borders. But a rough, conservative estimate suggests at least 110,000 hectares of the 168,000 hectare park has burned since December. This is a deeply troubling scenario.

The Grampians is an isolated landscape – an “island” of native vegetation surrounded by a sea of agricultural land. So animals can’t easily migrate from other parts of Victoria to repopulate the area. Recovery largely depends on the landscape’s own ability to regenerate after fire.

Populations of small carnivorous marsupials often peak in areas that haven’t burned for 10–20 years.

So for many species, most of their habitat has been lost to fire. This includes endangered mammals such as the smoky mouse, heath mouse, brush-tailed rock wallaby, southern brown bandicoot and long-nosed potoroo. These species in particular will need considerable help for the next few years.

Recovery will happen over time

Many animals likely perished in the blaze and more will die in coming months.

Unfortunately, most native small mammals struggle to survive in freshly burned habitats. Fire depletes their food sources and strips away the vegetation that provides cover and protection from predators.

But there is hope. Our previous research shows some animals do survive. These survivors can eventually breed, sparking the slow recovery of the landscape and helping reestablish populations over the next decade or two.

The rate of recovery will be driven by rainfall. So if drought hits, recovery will be slow. But if we have wet years, recovery will accelerate.

Many native plants in the national park are more resilient to fire than the animals, so recover faster. Native heathland plants such as Australian grass trees have evolved in the presence of fire and often reshoot pretty quickly. Seeds also germinate after fires. But it takes a few years after the plants come back before many native animal species fully recover.

So the first few years after fire are usually tough for native species. From a conservation perspective this is manageable in a patchy landscape — where some areas burned recently and others haven’t burned in decades. However, the current situation is different. This year, most of the landscape burned and almost no long-unburned habitat remains.

What are the threats?

The main challenge to recovery in the coming months and years is introduced species, especially foxes and cats. Foxes are particularly problematic, because they are drawn to recently burned areas where hunting is much easier.

To give native mammals a fighting chance, it is essential to ramp up fox management efforts for at least the next year. This will allow surviving native mammals time to recover and for vegetation to regrow, providing necessary cover.

In addition, Parks Victoria and the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action are erecting artificial shelters in ecologically sensitive areas. These provide temporary refuge for animals, giving them a better chance to evade predators.

What about the role of climate change?

In recent decades, the Grampians have experienced a general decline in rainfall, coupled with a significant increase in wildfires since the early 2000s.

We’re now witnessing a cycle where large fires are followed by droughts, and then wet periods such as the recent La Niña years.

During these wetter periods, vegetation flourishes. But when the inevitable dry spells return, that vegetation dries out, creating ideal conditions for wildfires. So the good years, while offering relief to the landscape, are setting the stage for the next fire. This leaves the landscape constantly vulnerable.

What can people do to help?

Fire is a natural process – albeit one increasingly driven by climate change. As climate change worsens, landscapes like the Grampians will face more frequent, large wildfires.

We should approach our natural landscapes with care, acknowledging climate change is fundamentally altering how these ecosystems function.

The best action we can take is to pressure governments to seriously address climate change and implement meaningful solutions.

John White receives funding from Parks Victoria to support his long-term mammal research in the Grampians,

– ref. Grampians National Park is still burning – here’s what we can expect will survive and recover – https://theconversation.com/grampians-national-park-is-still-burning-heres-what-we-can-expect-will-survive-and-recover-249147

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karley Beckman, Senior Lecturer in Digital Technologies for Learning, University of Wollongong

If you are a parent of a school student, you may have received a form seeking permission to use your child’s image on school social media accounts.

It’s very common for schools to share photos of smiling students on platforms such as Facebook and Instagram. This may be to celebrate the start of term, student achievements, or performances and events at the school.

Schools need permission from parents to publish or disclose students’ personal information, including photos and videos, on any online platform.

But research suggests families can lack support and information to provide fully informed consent.

Read more:
Is your child’s photo on their school Facebook page? What does this mean for their privacy?

Why do schools post photos online?

Our recent study showed one of main reasons schools post on social media is they believe it is what parents want. This is part of marketing their school as a positive place to learn.

But some parents take a more cautious approach to social media and don’t necessarily want photos of their children made public online.

There is significant community concern about children’s online privacy and their digital footprint or the information trail about them.

Last month, the Australian Federal Police warned parents about sharing images of their children online, especially back-to-school photos. It recommended parents blur or obscure the logo of the child’s school. Police also noted how background features can identify a school or child’s location.

The AFP has seen non-explicit pictures of children and young people become the target of highly sexualised and inappropriate comments or role play.

The risks also go beyond other people identifying your child online. Photos of children shared online can be used to train AI models or create deepfakes that are increasingly being used in cases of cyber bullying and cyber abuse.

What are the rules in Australia?

The Australian Privacy Act and related Australian Privacy Principles, say consent to share personal information should be current, clearly explained and specific.

This is why schools need to ask parents at the start of each year, but how they do this will depend on the state education department or individual school.

Here are three questions to consider before you sign.

1. What is the school asking you for?

While approaches vary, it is common for schools to ask for several types of permission in one bundle.

For example, they may ask if they can use photos and videos of your child in the school newsletter, school website, annual report, online learning platforms, traditional news media as well as social media.

So the locations where your child’s information and photo may be shared are quite different in terms of privacy and your child’s digital footprint.

For example, this could involve a photo of your child doing a class activity shared on a secure education app, or a video of your child on a public Facebook page.

Parents have the right to consent and/or decline the use of their children’s information for specific purposes. If you can’t do this on the form, you can contact the school.

2. What does the school post?

Before providing or declining consent, you may want to take a closer look at the kinds of posts the school shares. This includes:

• the quantity of information shared (number of photos or videos shared, and how often)

• strategies used to protect children’s privacy (no names or locations, or photos in which children are not clearly identifiable or faces are obscured)

• the purpose of the posts (can you see the value and benefit of sharing information?).

Think about whether the school’s approach fits with your family’s approach to social media and what you share.

3. How does your child feel?

Research shows children as young as eight are developing an understanding of the risks of sharing personal information online.

Understanding how your child feels about their school’s social media is important in making an informed decision about consent. It also helps teach them about making decisions about their digital footprint.

You could ask your child:

• are they aware of the school social media sites?

• how does having their photo taken, or not, at school make them feel?

• are they asked when their photo is taken, and are they told where it will be used or shared?

These forms can seem routine or presented as if it’s not a big deal. But if you have any questions or concerns you should talk to your school. Schools can help you with more information and can also forward feedback to education departments. This is particularly important as we navigate the changing nature of social media and the potential impacts on children.

Karley Beckman is an Associate Investigator with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child.

Tiffani Apps is an Associate Investigator with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child

– ref. Schools need parent permission to put students’ photos on social media. 3 questions to ask before you say yes – https://theconversation.com/schools-need-parent-permission-to-put-students-photos-on-social-media-3-questions-to-ask-before-you-say-yes-249273

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Garritt C. Van Dyk, Senior Lecturer in History, University of Waikato

The day he took office for his second term, United States President Donald J. Trump unveiled his “America First” trade policy, including tariffs on imported goods from Mexico, Canada (both of which have since been paused) and China.

President Trump’s reasoning for the tariffs included revitalising the American economy by bringing manufacturing and business back within US borders. Essentially, pushing the country towards greater self-sufficiency.

Considering the cost of the tariffs, a number of countries have begun to question their dependence on foreign trade. But there are very clear hurdles including access to precious metals and raw materials.

In a global market that relies on international trade, is it possible to be totally self-sufficient?

The history of self-seficiency

The economic term for self-sufficiency is “autarky”, borrowed from the ancient Greek word autarkeia, meaning “to suffice”. Ideally, this meant that a state could supply the needs of its people without foreign trade. Autarky, in its purest form, isolates the state from foreign economic, political and cultural influence.

There are numerous historical examples of attempts to achieve complete economic autonomy.

In 17th century Japan the Tokugawa Shogunate closed the borders to foreigners and prohibited Japanese from travelling abroad.

There was limited private trade with China through Nagasaki and with Europe through Dutch merchants. They were confined to an artificial island, Deshima, off Nagasaki, to ensure their isolation. These restrictions remained for 265 years, until the threat of US gunboats forced Japan to sign a trade treaty in 1854.

Self-sufficiency was also a goal of Benito Mussolini’s fascist dictatorship, aiming to lift Italy’s post-war economy in the 1920s. One initiative was the “Battle for Wheat”, an attempt to produce enough wheat to meet domestic demand and “free the Italian people from the slavery of foreign bread”.

Italy imported more than one third of the flour needed to make bread and pasta, the two main foodstuffs. Pasta was targeted as a “backwards” food to promote consumption of local rice and reduce agricultural imports.

Tariffs were levied on all imported goods in 1931. These were raised again in 1935 after sanctions were imposed on Italy following the invasion of Ethiopia. Mussolini declared in 1935 that Italy “would manage alone”.

While imports of food, machinery and raw materials dropped, oil imports increased. Mussolini recognised the limits of autarky in 1934:

Let us not delude ourselves about autarky. All the modern nations, thanks to the prodigious development of the sciences, can move towards a partial autarky. But we, until the contrary is proven, will have to import liquid combustibles.

A modern push to self-sufficiency

Even with reduced reliance on fossil fuels, the scarcity of some natural resources, such as rare earth minerals, still poses a challenge to achieving autarky.

Even the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), a centrally planned economy subject to United Nations Security Council sanctions for its nuclear and ballistic missile testing since 2006, is not completely self-sufficient.

China is North Korea’s largest trading partner, with plastics, tobacco, soybean oil, rubber tires and packaged medicines as the top imports. The economic isolation of North Korea also makes it more vulnerable to global price fluctuations, as the movements are magnified due to the limited number of trading partners.

Supply chain disruptions were highlighted during the pandemic, continued in 2021 with shortages in microchips, followed by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Some nations, such as the US and the United Kingdom, have responded to this logistical risk by shifting to local production, or reshoring, of certain critical industries, such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

This inward turn requires significant investment and lead time and may involve higher local energy and labour costs, or additional environmental restrictions. For industries that involve national security or essential goods, reducing dependence on potential adversaries may be necessary. But for other sectors the higher costs will create inflationary pressure.

There are also implicit costs in cutting economic ties with the outside world. Foreign investment is reduced and innovation lags as there are fewer incentives for the cross-border flow of ideas.

Embracing friendshoring

As the push for self-reliance increases, vulnerable countries will need new strategies to remain resilient.

Identifying alternative supply chain relationships and increasing inventory stockpiles in advance will minimise disruptions.

Another tactic is “friendshoring” – relocating supply chains to countries where the risk of disruption from political chaos is low.

It is likely that geopolitical instability will increase and global fragmentation will continue. While straightforward autarky may not be possible, countries will need to consider how to survive the political and economic volatility of the next four years – and beyond.

Garritt C. Van Dyk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘America First’ trade policy is pushing economic self-sufficiency – but history shows this is harder than it seems – https://theconversation.com/america-first-trade-policy-is-pushing-economic-self-sufficiency-but-history-shows-this-is-harder-than-it-seems-248530

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack McGrath, Lecturer in Animation, University of Newcastle

The 2025 Academy Awards could shape up to be a big one for stop-motion animation. Australian director Adam Eliott’s Memoir of a Snail (2024) has raked in a nomination for Best Animated Feature Film, alongside Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (2024).

Read more:
Overtly handmade and so very moving: Adam Elliot’s Memoir of A Snail is a stop motion triumph

Coincidentally, this recognition comes in what is already an historic year for stop motion. A century ago, on February 8 1925, The Lost World hit cinemas. This film is widely considered the first feature-length stop-motion production, as well as the first “creature feature”.

Audiences were captivated as they watched animated dinosaurs share the screen with live actors. The animators positioned and photographed miniature dinosaurs made of rubber, one frame at a time, to create moving sequences that accompanied full-scale shots with human actors.

This method drew from earlier works such as Georges Méliès’s 1902 short film A Trip to the Moon (Le voyage dans la lune).

Dynamation: the beginnings

After animating on The Lost World, stop-motion pioneer Willis O’Brien went on to animate King Kong (1933) and the lesser-known Mighty Joe Young (1949), where he mentored Ray Harryhausen.

Harryhausen himself would later design and animate some of the most celebrated stop-motion sequences of all time, including the famous skeleton fight in Jason and the Argonauts (1963) and the fictional Rhedosaurus from The Beast from 20,000 Fathoms (1953).

The blend of animated miniatures and live actors become known as Dynamation, as Harryhausen pushed to create ever-more integrated and dynamic sequences in which animated puppets “interacted” with real actors.

Back then it wasn’t possible to review animation as it was being shot; you could only see the puppet as it was in the moment. Sequences were shot on celluloid film, and animators had to wait for the film to develop before they could see the results.

The famous skeleton fight in Jason and the Argonauts required Harryhausen to remember the movements of seven skeletons and line up a fight sequence with two pre-recorded actors, one frame at a time. He would often work for months before being able to review his work.

In Eastern Europe, filmmakers such as Karel Zeman were also combining live action with miniature special effects and stop motion – extending a long history of Eastern European puppet theatre into cinema.

In 1958, Zeman brought Jules Vernes’ whimsical vehicles and underwater worlds to the screen in his feature film Invention for Destruction (Vynález zkázy).

Zeman’s work went on to influence famous animators such as Jan Švankmajer and Terry Gilliam.

Technology advances

In the 1970s, Phil Tippet and others working at Industrial Light and Magic (ILM) – a studio founded by George Lucas – pushed the medium further through the development of “go-motion”.

This invention used a custom-made control rig that precisely moved a puppet while it was being photographed – resulting in a subtle motion blur that emulated live-action movement.

This technique allowed for more realistic animation and was used in productions such as Dragon Slayer (1981) and Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back (1980).

In the 1980s, however, Star Wars began a trend towards photorealism and audiences became more scrutinising of visual effects. Harryhausen’s creatures in Clash of the Titans (1981) appeared especially hammy and outdated even for the time.

The CGI scare

In the early 90s, Phil Tippet and colleagues at ILM, in the pursuit of perfecting the craft, developed test dinosaur sequences for Steven Spielberg’s Jurassic Park (1993). Tippet animated the original test sequences in stop motion.

Also at ILM, Dennis Muren was experimenting with a new kind of animation for creatures made entirely using computer software. These were the early days of computer-generated imagery (CGI).

When Tippet saw an early Jurassic Park test of CGI dinosaur footage, he said to Steven Spielberg “I’m extinct”.

Nonetheless, once it was decided the dinosaurs would be created with CGI, Tippet continued working on the film. He used a dinosaur-shaped physical rig, which allowed changes to the rig’s position to translate to CGI movements onscreen. Stop-motion animators were helpful in this process because “CGI animators” as we know them didn’t yet exist.

Amid a CGI-induced scare, Tim Burton and Henry Selicks’ The Nightmare Before Christmas (1993) became the first fully stop-motion animated feature to be produced by a major studio. This film proved stop motion could be achieved at a Hollywood scale.

Stop motion took a backseat to CGI in the years that followed. Pixar’s Toy Story (1995), the world’s first fully CGI animated feature, cemented CGI as the way of the future.

The only other noteworthy stop-motion cinematic release came at the turn of the century, when DreamWorks teamed up with Aardman Animations to produce Chicken Run (2000), following a number of successful stop motion shorts, starting with Wallace and Gromit’s A Grand Day Out in 1989.

The comeback

Eventually, innovations in digital cameras and motion control paved the way back to stop motion, giving us films such as Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005) and The Corpse Bride (2005).

Working on Coraline (2008), Laika studios introduced 3D printing technology for a sophisticated form of replacement animation, in which different body and facial pieces are swapped to create character movements and expressions.

Traditionally, this technique was achieved by carving individual wooden models and swapping them out between capturing frames. This is how filmmaker George Pal made his Puppetoons films in the 1930s.

Embracing new tech brought stop motion back onto the world stage, with studios such as Laika leading the charge. Since then, we’ve seen the release of features including ParaNorman (2012), The Boxtrolls (2014), Kubo and the Two Strings (2016), Missing Link (2019) and Guillermo del Toro’s Academy Award-wining Pinnoccio (2022).

A new era of stop-motion features

Despite huge developments in CGI, audiences still appreciate the painstaking work of bringing inanimate objects to life frame by frame.

There are more stop motion films being made than ever before, with independent filmmakers and students creating quality sequences for a fraction of what it cost 30 years ago.

Some directors use the medium for its connection with real materials, and out of respect for the art form. Phil Tippet spent more than 30 years on his stop motion feature Mad God (2021) – an experimental and intense horror magnum opus that embodies the materiality of stop motion.

Wes Anderson says his approach to stop motion in Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009) was “very much about bringing to life the [characters’] performance.”

In Pinocchio (2022), Guillermo del Toro tells the touching story of a puppet, using real puppets, in which imperfection and human frailty are emphasised.

We’re also seeing the return of stop-motion creature effects, such as with Disney’s Star Wars series Skeleton Crew (2024–25), in which live action is once again integrated with stop-motion puppets.

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is now pushing audiences and creators to question what they value in animation, cinema and art more generally.

If AI could generate high-quality films with a stop-motion aesthetic, would we value them as much as those productions that were laboured over for years on end? The recent Oscar nominees may hold the answer.

Jack McGrath does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A century in motion: how stop-motion films went from obscure ‘creature features’ to winning Oscars – https://theconversation.com/a-century-in-motion-how-stop-motion-films-went-from-obscure-creature-features-to-winning-oscars-248008

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Coates, Program Director, Housing and Economic Security, Grattan Institute

Most Australians can look forward to a comfortable retirement. More than three in four retirees own their own home, most report feeling comfortable financially, and few suffer financial stress.

But our new Grattan Institute report paints a sobering picture for one group: retirees who rent in the private market. Two-thirds of this group live in poverty, including more than three in four single women who live alone.

Retirees who rent often have little in the way of retirement savings: more than half have less than A$25,000 stashed away. And a growing number of older Australians are at risk of becoming homeless.

But our research also shows just how much we’d need to boost Commonwealth Rent Assistance to make housing more affordable and ensure all renters are able to retire with dignity.

Today’s renters, tomorrow’s renting retirees

Home ownership is falling among poorer Australians who are approaching retirement.

Between 1981 and 2021, home ownership rates among the poorest 40% of 45–54-year-olds fell from 68% to just 54%. Today’s low-income renters are tomorrow’s renting retirees.

Age pensioners need at least $40,000 in savings to afford to spend $350 a week in rent, together with the Age Pension and Rent Assistance. That’s enough to afford the cheapest 25% of one-bedroom homes in capital cities.

But Australians who are renting as they approach retirement tend to have little in the way of retirement savings. 40% of renting households aged 55-64 have net financial wealth less than $40,000.

Rent assistance is too low

Our research shows that Commonwealth Rent Assistance, which supplements the Age Pension for poorer retirees who rent, is inadequate.

The federal government has lifted the maximum rate of Rent Assistance by 27% – over and above inflation – in the past two budgets. But the payment remains too low.

A typical single retiree needs at least $379 per week to afford essential non-housing costs such as food, transport and energy.

But we found a single pensioner who relies solely on income support can afford to rent just 4% of one-bedroom homes in Sydney, 13% in Brisbane, and 14% in Melbourne, after covering these basic living expenses.

With Rent Assistance indexed to inflation, rather than low-income earners’ housing costs, the maximum rate of the payment has increased by 136% since 2001, while the rents paid by recipients have increased by 193%.

A boost is needed

Our analysis suggests that to solve this problem, the federal government should increase the maximum rate of Rent Assistance by 50% for singles and 40% for couples.

The payment should also be indexed to changes in rents for the cheapest 25% of homes in our capital cities.

These increases would boost the maximum rate of Rent Assistance by $53 a week ($2,750 a year) for singles, and $40 a week ($2,080 a year) for couples.

This would ensure single retirees could afford to spend $350 a week on rent, enough to rent the cheapest 25% of one-bedroom homes across Australian capital cities, while still affording other essentials.

Similarly, retired couples would be able to afford to spend $390 a week on rent, enough to rent the cheapest 25% of all one- and two-bedroom homes.

Unlikely to push up rents

One common concern is that increasing Rent Assistance will just lead landlords to hike rents. But we find little evidence that this is the case.

International studies suggest that more than five in six dollars of any extra Rent Assistance paid would benefit renters, rather than landlords.

In Australia, there’s little evidence that recent increases in Rent Assistance have pushed up rents.

Our analysis of NSW rental bond lodgement data suggests areas with higher concentrations of Rent Assistance recipients did not see larger rent increases in the year after the payment was boosted.

That’s not surprising. Rent Assistance is paid to tenants, not landlords, which means tenants are likely to spend only a small portion of any extra income on housing.

Since rates of financial stress are even higher among younger renters, we propose that any increase to Rent Assistance should also apply to working-age households.

Boosting Rent Assistance for all recipients would cost about $2 billion a year, with about $500 million of this going to retirees.

These increases could be paid for by further tightening superannuation tax breaks, curbing negative gearing and halving the capital gains tax discount, or counting more of the value of the family home in the Age Pension assets test.

Read more:
Superannuation is complicated. A guaranteed government income in retirement would be simpler

Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the federal and Victorian governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute’s activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website.

– ref. Most retirees who rent live in poverty. Here’s how boosting rent assistance could help lift them out of it – https://theconversation.com/most-retirees-who-rent-live-in-poverty-heres-how-boosting-rent-assistance-could-help-lift-them-out-of-it-249134

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The weekend byelection in the outer suburban seat of Werribee saw the widely-anticipated slap-in-the-face to Victorian Labor, which is absolutely on the nose. The question is: to what degree were electors venting against federal Labor too?

With an abundance of caution, the Albanese government would do best to assume it was being given a substantial kick.

Even if the largest slice of the about 10% two-party swing was prompted by state factors, including the sheer arrogance of the byelection  (a state treasurer departing mid-term), we know federal Labor is doing badly in Victoria.

There is certainly enough of a message in the result in Werribee (which on present numbers Labor is expected to just retain) to flag a potential serious erosion of federal seats come the national election.

One challenge for federal Labor is to turn Victorian voters’ attention away from state matters, to focus squarely on the choice between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.

Labor needs to minimise the extent to which Victorians use the federal election to take out their anger towards the Allan government. So far, only the Werribee voters have had the chance to get some of that frustration out of their systems. The federal opposition will seek to milk feelings about the Allan government.

Regardless of that, we know Dutton has become more acceptable in Victoria than he was a couple of years ago.

As things stand, Labor is set to lose federal seats in this state where the Liberals have struggled, and the state Liberal organisation has been a shambles. It is a matter of how many.

While the Liberals will be delighted with the Werribee result, the hardheads will note that although the Labor primary vote fell nearly 17% the Liberal vote only rose 3.7%. Partly this might reflect the fact that in Labor heartland, the disillusioned voters wanted to protest but not jump the aisle to the Liberals. Nevertheless, there is the message, applicable federally, that the Liberals need to be attracting more primary votes, not just relying on Labor losing them to independents and small parties.

Once again, we see reflected in this byelection the relative collapse of the two party system. Labor polled 28.7% of the primary vote; the Liberals 29%. fewer than six in ten voters supported one of the major parties.

Depending on your viewpoint, you can see the decline of the two party system as a portend of future instability in our politics, or the continued indication of a fresh new direction. Federally, the present money is on minority government.

In Saturday’s other Victorian byelection, the Liberals wrested the inner city seat of Prahran from the Greens. There was no Labor candidate.

The Greens, on 36.2% of the vote, attempt to take comfort that  the swing against them on primary votes was only 0.6%. But a loss is a loss, whatever the margin, and this setback, on top of those in the recent ACT and Queensland elections, must put fears into the party about the fate of the three Queensland federal seats it won in 2022.

With some Labor supporters deeply pessimistic and some Liberals wildly optimistic, both sides are trying to manage expectations  about where the election battle stands nationally.

Labor finds some heart from comparing Newspoll’s now and at comparable points before changes of government.

The Dutton opposition in the first Newspoll of 2025 was on 51% of the two-party vote.

By contrast, in the first Newspoll of 1996, the Howard opposition had a two-party vote of 54%.

Newspoll in August 2007 (about 100 days before  the election)  saw the Rudd opposition on 56%. In  May 2013, with about 100 days to voting, the Abbott opposition was polling 55% in two-party terms. The first Newspoll of 2022 had the Albanese opposition on 56%.

Governor Michele Bullock will deliver the next big marker on the political calendar when the Reserve Bank announces next week whether it will cut interest rates.

If it does, there will be a frenzy of speculation about the election being held in April, which would mean scrapping the scheduled March 25 budget.

Quite how Albanese would explain this, when he and his ministers say every other day how much work is being done on that budget, is unclear. Those in Labor who are in the camp of a May election say the government needs time for an interest rate cut to flow through.

Only one man determines the timing, and he’s on record recently saying the date remained “fluid”.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Labor faces risk of Victorians using federal poll as referendum on both Allan and Albanese governments – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-labor-faces-risk-of-victorians-using-federal-poll-as-referendum-on-both-allan-and-albanese-governments-249457

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Byelections occurred on Saturday in the Victorian state seats of Prahran and Werribee. The Liberals gained Prahran from the Greens by a 51.6–48.4 margin, a 13.6% swing to the Liberals since the 2022 state election.

Primary votes were 36.2% Liberals (up 4.8%), 36.2% Greens (down 0.6%), 12.8% for independent Tony Lupton, the Labor member for Prahran from 2002 to 2010, and 5.3% for another independent. Labor did not contest after winning 26.8% in 2022.

The primary vote swings between the Greens and Liberals only explain 2.7% of the 13.6% two-candidate swing. In 2022, Labor preferences would have flowed strongly to the Greens, but at the byelection Lupton recommended preferences to the Liberals on his how-to-vote material. The Greens’ share of overall preferences plunged from nearly 80% in 2022 to 44%.

In Werribee, Labor leads the Liberals by 50.6–49.4, a 10.4% swing to the Liberals since 2022. Primary votes are 29.0% Liberals (up 3.7%), 28.7% Labor (down 16.7%), 14.7% for independent Paul Hopper (up 8.8%), 7.5% Greens (up 0.7%), 7.3% Victorian Socialists (up 3.7%), 5.5% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 4.4% Family First (up 1.9%).

Labor’s primary vote slumped in Werribee, but the Liberals were not the main beneficiary. There were just enough preferences from left-wing sources (Greens, Socialists and Legalise Cannabis) to put Labor over the line.

The large majority of outstanding votes at these byelections will be postals. In postals counted so far in Werribee, the Liberals lead by 53–47, and they will need to increase that margin on remaining postals to erase Labor’s current lead. But later postals are usually better for left-wing parties than earlier ones.

In Prahran, the Liberals lead the Greens on postals counted so far by 65–35. Later postals will probably be better for the Greens, but the Liberals will still win this byelection.

In Prahran, the Greens should have been able to overcome a shift against them on preferences with an improved primary vote. Losing this seat, which they have held since the 2014 state election, is a dismal result for the Greens.

Labor is likely to retain Werribee, but the slump in the Labor primary vote validates the recent Victorian Resolve poll that had Labor’s statewide primary vote at just 22% and the Liberals in a clear election-winning position.

Victorian upper house reform delayed again

Since winning government at the November 2014 election, Labor has done nothing to reform the upper house electoral system. The upper house still uses group ticket voting (GTV), which is no longer used in any other Australian jurisdiction.

GTV was scrapped in New South Wales before the 2003 election, federally before 2016, in South Australia before 2018 and in Western Australia before this year’s March election. Other jurisdictions have never used GTV.

The artificially strong preference flows produced by GTV can allow parties with very low vote share to win seats through preference deals by overtaking parties with a much higher vote. In a system where voters direct their own preferences, this does not occur.

Analyst Kevin Bonham wrote on Friday that the parliamentary Victorian Electoral Matters Committee had recommended scrapping GTV, but the government has delayed any response until after the Committee publishes its final report in December. By this time, it will be difficult to make changes so that they can be implemented for the November 2026 election.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Victorian byelections: Liberals gain Prahran from Greens and Labor ahead in Werribee – https://theconversation.com/victorian-byelections-liberals-gain-prahran-from-greens-and-labor-ahead-in-werribee-249446

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thomas Jeffries, Senior Lecturer in Microbiology, Western Sydney University

The news last week that three people in Sydney were hospitalised with botulism after receiving botox injections has raised questions about the regulation of the cosmetic injectables industry.

The three women allegedly received injections of unregulated anti-wrinkle products from the same provider at a Western Sydney home in January.

The provider, who is not a registered health practitioner, is allegedly also linked to a case of botulism that occurred following a botox injection in Victoria in 2024.

The provider has been banned from performing cosmetic procedures in New South Wales and Victoria while the incidents are investigated. Meanwhile, health authorities in both states have issued warnings about the practitioner.

So, what exactly is botulism? And how can it be linked to botox?

Botox and botulism

Botox, or botulinum toxin, is a drug made from a toxin produced by the bacterium Clostridium botulinum.

The botox toxin is a neurotoxin, which means it prevents the functioning of cells in the central nervous system. Specifically, it blocks the messages your nerves send to your muscles telling them to contract. In this way it can temporarily reduce wrinkles.

While botox is best known for its cosmetic applications, it can also be used in the treatment of certain medical conditions, such as chronic migraines and muscle spasms.

The toxin is used in a highly diluted form in botox injections. Notwithstanding the possibility of side effects (such as temporary pain and swelling at the injection site), botox is generally considered safe when conducted by licensed health practitioners.

Botulism is likewise caused by a toxin produced by the bacteria C. botulinum.

Instances of botulism linked to botox injections in the past have been attributed to counterfeit or mishandled product. Mishandling might include contamination from the toxin source in the diluted product, leading to a higher dose of the toxin, or improper refrigeration. Poor injection technique can also be a factor.

When the botulinum toxin is not handled properly, the toxin can enter the bloodstream. This is how botulism occurs.

Botulism can also be a food-borne illness

C. botulinum can form spores and survive in tough conditions, meaning it can withstand many food preparation techniques.

People who consume homemade preserved foods such as vegetables, particularly those that are not cooked during preparation, can be at a higher risk of food-borne botulism. Lower levels of salt and acid, as is the case with mild fermentation, can also increase the risk of the toxin being present.

C. botulinum can also survive in soil and water. In this way, botulism can also be caused by bacteria from the environment. This can present as wound infections, or intestinal infection with C. botulinum in infants specifically.

Intravenous drug users are at a higher risk of wound-borne botulism, while infants tend to suffer from gastrointestinal botulism because their gut microbiomes are still developing.

It’s extremely rare

Botulism is very unusual, with generally only about one case reported annually in Australia.

However it’s very serious. It’s commonly referred to as a nerve-paralysing illness.

Symptoms can develop within a few hours to several days after exposure to the toxin, and include drooping eyelids, difficulty breathing, facial weakness, blurred vision, difficulty swallowing and slurred speech. In infants it can cause floppy limbs and a weak cry.

It’s treated by supporting breathing if necessary, and urgently administering a botox antitoxin, which binds to the toxin, preventing it from attaching to nerve cells in the body.

Usually patients recover, although in some cases they may need to be in hospital for months, and sometimes symptoms such as fatigue and trouble breathing can last years.

Botulism is fatal in 5–10% of cases.

Is there anything people can do to stay safe?

The cosmetic injectables industry is estimated to be worth A$4.1 billion in Australia and forecast to grow by almost 20% annually until 2030. These recent incidents in NSW and Victoria highlight the need for stronger regulation in this booming industry.

If you’re considering a cosmetic botox injection, make sure it’s administered by a trusted professional, ideally someone registered with the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency.

Asking your practitioner about the injectable they’re using, and ensuring the specific product is registered with the Therapeutic Goods Administration, can further limit any risk associated with botox procedures.

If you make your own preserved foods, careful food production techniques and hygiene, as well as the addition of fermentation, acid, salt or heat treatment can limit the risk of food-borne botulism.

Thomas Jeffries does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What is botulism? How this ‘nerve-paralysing illness’ can be linked to dodgy botox – https://theconversation.com/what-is-botulism-how-this-nerve-paralysing-illness-can-be-linked-to-dodgy-botox-248765

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jens Blotevogel, Principal Research Scientist and Team Leader for Remediation Technologies, CSIRO

Lithium-ion batteries are part of everyday life. They power small rechargeable devices such as mobile phones and laptops. They enable electric vehicles. And larger versions store excess renewable energy for later use, supporting the clean energy transition.

Australia produces more than 3,000 tonnes of lithium-ion battery waste a year. Managing this waste is a technical, economic and social challenge. Opportunities exist for recycling and creating a circular economy for batteries. But they come with risk.

That’s because lithium-ion batteries contain manufactured chemicals such as PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances. The chemicals carry the lithium – along with electricity – through the battery. If released into the environment, they can linger for decades and likely longer. This is why they’ve been dubbed “forever chemicals”.

Recently, scientists identified a new type of PFAS known as bis-FASIs (short for bis-perfluoroalkyl sulfonimides) in lithium-ion batteries and in the environment. Bis-FASIs have since been detected in soils and waters worldwide. They are toxic – just one drop in an Olympic-size swimming pool can harm the nervous system of animals. Scientists don’t know much about possible effects on humans yet.

Bis-FASIs in lithium-ion batteries present a major obstacle to recycling or disposing of batteries safely. Fortunately, we may have come up with a way to fix this.

There’s value in our battery wastes

Currently, Australia only recycles about 10% of its battery waste. The rest is sent to landfill.

But landfill sites could leak eventually. That means disposal of battery waste in landfill may lead to soil and groundwater contamination.

We can’t throw away lithium-ion batteries in household rubbish because they can catch fire.

So once batteries reach the end of useful life, we must handle them in a way that protects the environment and human health.

What’s more, there’s real value in battery waste. Lithium-ion batteries contain lots of valuable metals that are worth recycling. Lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel are critical and finite metal resources that are in high demand. The recoverable metal value from one tonne of lithium-ion battery waste is between A$3,000 and $14,000.

What does this mean for recycling of batteries?

Battery recycling in Australia begins with collection, sorting, discharging and dismantling, before the metal is recovered.

Metal recovery can be done via mechanical, high-temperature, chemical or biological methods. But this may inadvertently release bis-FASI, threatening recycling workers and the environment.

Pyrometallurgy is the most common technique for recycling lithium-ion batteries. This involves incinerating the batteries to recover the metals. Bis-FASIs are incinerated at the same time.

Yet PFAS chemicals are stable and can withstand high temperatures. The exact temperature needed to destroy PFAS is the biggest unknown in lithium-ion battery recycling.

Determining this temperature was the focus of our research.

The solution is hot – very hot!

We teamed up with chemistry professor Anthony Rappé at Colorado State University in the United States. We wanted to work out the temperature at which bis-FASIs can be effectively incinerated.

But figuring this out is tricky, not only because of the danger of working with high temperatures.

The inside of incinerators is a hot mess. Molecules get torn apart. Some recombine to form larger molecules, and others interact with ashes produced during the burning process. This could produce toxic new substances, which then exit through a smokestack into the air outside.

To make matters worse, it’s not possible to measure all the substances that bis-FASIs break down into, because many of them are unknown.

To help, we applied the science of quantum mechanics and solved the problem on a computer without ever going into the lab. The computer can accurately simulate the behaviour of any molecules, including bis-FASIs.

We found that at 600°C, bis-FASI molecules start to separate into smaller fragments. But these fragments are still PFAS chemicals and could be more harmful than their parent chemicals.

As a consequence, the absence of bis-FASIs in stack exhaust is not enough to deem the process safe. Much higher temperatures of 1,000°C and above are needed to break down bis-FASIs completely into harmless products. This is likely to be much higher than temperatures currently used, although that varies between facilities.

Based on these findings, we built an innovative model that guides recyclers on how to destroy bis-FASIs during metal recovery by using sufficiently high temperatures.

How do we avoid future risks?

We are now collaborating with operators of high-temperature metal recovery and incineration plants to use our model to destroy PFAS in batteries.

Recycling plants will have to use much higher temperatures to avoid problematic fumes and this will require more energy and financial investment.

After our new guidance is implemented, we will test the recovered metals, solid residues, and exhausts to ensure they are free from PFAS.

While we can tackle the PFAS problem now, it remains an expensive undertaking. Metal recovery processes must be upgraded to safely destroy bis-FASIs. Ultimately, consumers are likely to foot the bill.

However, sending lithium-ion battery waste to landfill will damage the environment and be more expensive in the long run. Landfilling of bis-FASI-containing waste should therefore be avoided.

Clearly, the battery recycling rate must improve. This is where everyday people can help. In the future, manufacturers should avoid using forever chemicals in batteries altogether. Development of safer alternatives is a key focus of ongoing research into sustainable battery design.

Jens Blotevogel receives funding from the United States Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program.

Naomi Boxall receives funding from the Australian Government under the National Environmental Science Program.

– ref. Taking the ‘forever’ out of ‘forever chemicals’: we worked out how to destroy the PFAS in batteries – https://theconversation.com/taking-the-forever-out-of-forever-chemicals-we-worked-out-how-to-destroy-the-pfas-in-batteries-242769

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edith Jennifer Hill, Associate Lecturer, Learning & Teaching Innovation, Flinders University

Netflix’s new limited series, Apple Cider Vinegar, tells the story of the elaborate cancer con orchestrated by Australian blogger Annabelle (Belle) Gibson.

The first episode opens with Gibson’s character (played by Kaitlyn Dever) breaking the wall between the performance and the audience, saying:

This is a true story based on a lie. Some names have been changed to protect the innocent. Belle Gibson has not been paid for the recreation of her story.

And from these first few seconds, we know, Gibson herself is not innocent.

A familiar story

For anyone who followed Gibson during her rise to fame in the 2010s – or her spectacular fall – the show feels eerily familiar.

From the clothing, to the makeup, to the food, Apple Cider Vinegar excels in set design and staging. Every effort has been made to ensure this true story, based on a lie, looks like it did when it was unfolding on our phone screens in 2010s.

As someone who followed Gibson closely and spent months hunting down the recalled cookbook to see if the health claims were as outlandish as I’d heard (they were), this show was a treat to watch.

The scenes are cut with recreations of Belle’s stylised Instagram pictures of green juices, beaches and food with “no nasties”. Belle’s account was removed from Instagram after the massive public ousting of her hoax.

Apple Cider Vinegar has done an incredible job recreating this account and breathing life back into the deleted content.

The cancer con

While the core story of Apple Cider Vinegar is unpacking Gibson’s lies and path to destruction, it also shows us a very real and heartbreaking side to cancer.

Other prominent characters include fellow influencer, Milla Blake (played by Alycia Debnam-Carey) and follower Lucy (played by Tilda Cobham-Harvey). Both of these women are battling cancer. We learn about their relationships with Gibson and how her lies so easily bled into their lives.

We witness how alluring Gibson’s lies were for people who were desperately looking to feel “well”. We understand her magnetism, and just as easily to feel the rage of the families who watched as their loved ones deteriorated. In the words of Lucy’s partner:

I’m not letting some influencer with a nose ring undercut years of medical research.

Apple Cider Vinegar demonstrates how one can be taken down a path of cancer treatment quackery. The allure of alternative medicine is presented compellingly when contrasted with the painful realities of traditional cancer treatment.

Milla, suffering from an aggressive form of cancer, seeks out alternative options after doctors recommend an amputation. She says:

I didn’t know the words to describe the rage I felt when the doctors looked at my body and only saw disease.

While holistic approaches to many diseases can be helpful when combined with traditional treatment, Apple Cider Vinegar illustrates how toxic it can be to “moralise” health.

When people assign moral properties to neutral health conditions such as cancer, AIDS or COVID, this can lead to stigmatisation and feelings of being “bad”. Some characters in the show talk about how their behaviours led them to sickness and how “healthy” actions would save them (rather than medical treatment).

The show also regularly uses language that is prominent in online health communities, such as referring to certain foods as “good” or “toxic”. In one scene, we see a character fall into a panic and call a holistic health professional after her parent takes a pain killer.

The real story

Apple Cider Vinegar is based on the book The Woman Who Fooled the World by Beau Donelly and Nick Toscano, two journalists who were instrumental in uncovering Gibson’s lies.

Creator Samantha Strauss crafts this story expertly. We see Gibson’s story from all sides. We feel sympathy for her – for her childhood and loneliness – before being put in the shoes of someone whose partner is dying because they followed Gibson’s advice.

Some characters and scenes have clearly been fabricated, such as when Gibson claims to see a doctor named “Dr Phil”. But these fabrications seem acceptable, because we are told from the beginning that’s what this show would do: create and fictionalise some characters.

Other scenes feel very real. The character Milla Blake, a fellow influencer, is heavily inspired by the real woman who died in 2015 from epithelioid sarcoma.

She made a platform online by sharing how she rejected traditional cancer treatment in favour of alternative treatments (Gerson therapy). Like Belle, she was a part of the inspirational speaking and author circuit at the time.

In their book The Woman Who Fooled the World, Donelly and Toscano speculate about how Belle got close to this influencer (to follow her pattern of success online) and to other cancer patients, including a young boy and his family (to mimic symptoms and appear more authentic).

Apple Cider Vinegar shows us hints of this behaviour. We see Belle begin to mimic the language of other people sharing their experiences with cancer and act in similar ways.

Whether or not you are already familiar Gibson’s story, Apple Cider Vinegar is a compelling watch. You’ll especially love it if you enjoy non-fiction productions that play with ideas of truth such as iTonya, the Tinder Swindler and Inventing Anna.

Apple Cider Vinegar is streaming now on Netflix.

Edith Jennifer Hill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Belle Gibson built a ‘wellness’ empire on a lie about cancer. Apple Cider Vinegar expertly unravels her con – https://theconversation.com/belle-gibson-built-a-wellness-empire-on-a-lie-about-cancer-apple-cider-vinegar-expertly-unravels-her-con-248999

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

Greece’s government has just declared a state of emergency on the island of Santorini, as earthquakes shake the island multiple times a day and sometimes only minutes apart.

The “earthquake swarm” is also affecting other nearby islands in the Aegean Sea. It began gradually with numerous very minor (less than magnitude 3) and mostly imperceptible earthquakes in late January. However, at the start of February, the seismic activity intensified as the quakes became larger and more frequent.

So far, several thousand quakes have been recorded in the last two weeks. As many as 30 a day have been above magnitude 4.0 – most of them at less than 10km depth, which is large and shallow enough to be felt by people living on local islands.

These larger earthquakes have resulted in rock falls along the islands’ coastal cliffs, as well as minor damage to vulnerable buildings. The largest earthquake so far was magnitude 5.1 on February 6, which was also felt in the capital city, Athens, as well as in Crete and in parts of Turkey more than 240km away.

Usually a popular tourist destination, Santorini is now virtually empty. Over the past week, some 11,000 holidaymakers and locals have left the island, with many fearing the seismic activity may presage a volcanic eruption.

So how exactly does an “earthquake swarm” happen? And what might happen in the coming days and weeks?

No stranger to earthquakes

This area of the world is no stranger to earthquakes. Greece is one of the most seismically active regions in Europe.

The current seismic activity is located near Anydros, an uninhabited islet about 30km northeast of Santorini. This region lies within the volcanic arc of the “Hellenic subduction zone”, where the African tectonic plate is slowly sliding beneath the Eurasian plate (and specifically the Aegean microplate). The region hosts volcanoes as well as numerous weak zones in the crust – what earth scientists often call “faults”.

Santorini itself is a mostly submerged caldera – a crater formed as a result of volcanic activity over the past 180,000 years, with its last eruption in the 1950s. Earthquakes can be connected to volcanic activity – specifically, the movement of magma beneath the surface.

However, this earthquake sequence is not located beneath Santorini. And local scientists monitoring Santorini have reported no change to indicate the current seismic activity is a forerunner of another Santorini eruption. Instead, the earthquakes appear to align with faults lying between Santorini and the neighbouring island Amorgos.

Nearby faults are known to have produced earthquakes before. For example, in 1956, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake here also produced a damaging tsunami and was soon followed by a magnitude 7.2 aftershock. More than 53 people died as a result of this earthquake and the aftershock and tsunami. Many more were injured.

No single stand-out event

Tectonic earthquakes occur when accumulating stress in Earth’s crust is suddenly released, causing a rupture along a fault and releasing energy in the form of seismic waves.

Typically, moderate to major earthquakes (known as mainshocks) are followed by smaller quakes (known as aftershocks) that gradually diminish in magnitude and frequency over time. This is what seismologists call the mainshock–aftershock sequence.

Some sequences behave differently and do not exhibit a single stand-out event. Instead, they involve multiple earthquakes of a similar size that take place over days, weeks, or even months. These types of sequences are what seismologists call “earthquake swarms”.

The 1956 earthquake was a mainshock–aftershock sequence, with aftershocks lasting at least eight months after the mainshock. However, the current ongoing seismic activity near Santorini, at least as of February 7, features thousands of earthquakes, many with magnitudes ranging between 4.0 and 5.0.

This suggests it is most likely an earthquake swarm.

Earthquake swarms are often associated with fluid movement in the earth’s crust and the resulting seismic activity is usually less dramatic than the sudden movement of a strong mainshock.

Seismologists are interested in distinguishing between mainshock–aftershock sequences and earthquake swarms as it can help them better understand the processes that drive these phenomena.

A larger quake is still possible

We cannot predict exactly what will come from the earthquake activity near Santorini. Global observations of earthquakes tell us that only a small fraction (about 5%) of earthquakes are foreshocks to larger earthquakes.

That said, there could still be a possibility that a larger and potentially damaging earthquake could occur there soon.

Although swarms typically involve earthquakes of lower magnitudes, they can last for days to weeks, or persist for months. They can even slow down, and then intensify again, unsettling locals with intermittent ground shaking.

Dee Ninis works at the Seismology Research Centre, is Vice President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society, and a Committee Member for the Geological Society of Australia – Victoria Division.

Konstantinos Michailos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. An ‘earthquake swarm’ is shaking Santorini. It could persist for months – https://theconversation.com/an-earthquake-swarm-is-shaking-santorini-it-could-persist-for-months-249278

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Western Australian state election will be held on March 8. A Newspoll, conducted January 29 to February 4 from a sample of 1,039, gave Labor a 56–44 lead, from primary votes of 42% Labor, 32% Liberals, 3% Nationals, 12% Greens, 4% One Nation and 7% for all Others.

At the March 2021 WA election, Labor won 53 of the 59 lower house seats on a two-party vote of 69.7–30.3, a record high for either major party at any state or federal election. Labor won 59.9% of the primary vote.

A 56–44 result in Labor’s favour would still be a thumping victory, but it would represent a 14% swing to the Liberals from 2021. Labor will lose many seats, but they are very likely to easily retain a lower house majority.

Labor Premier Roger Cook had a net approval of +18, with 55% satisfied and 37% dissatisfied. Liberal leader Libby Mettam had a net approval of -2, with 41% dissatisfied and 39% satisfied. Cook led Mettam as better premier by 54–34.

While this Newspoll is very good for state Labor, only 35% of WA voters said the Anthony Albanese federal Labor government deserved to be re-elected, while 50% said it was “time to give someone else a go”.

Federal Essential poll: Coalition remains ahead on respondent preferences

A national Essential poll, conducted January 29 to February 2 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 49–47 lead by respondent preferences including undecided (48–47 in mid-January). The Coalition has led by one or two points in the past four Essential polls.

Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 4% undecided (down one). These primary votes imply a Labor lead by about 50.5–49.5 by 2022 election preference flows.

The poll graph below includes the latest polls from Essential and Morgan, but not the DemosAU poll. In the last two weeks, the Morgan poll has trended to Labor, with Labor’s two-party share using 2022 flows increasing from 48% to 50.5%.

On action to combat antisemitism, 9% thought the government was doing too much, 30% said it was doing enough and 43% believed it was not doing enough. On the importance of antisemitism, 40% said it was a major issue, 48% a minor issue and 12% not an issue. Issue salience will be greatly overstated by questions that ask about one issue; it’s best to ask about various issues.

By 37–31, respondents supported tax discounts of $20,000 for small businesses to pay for meals and entertainment for staff and clients. The question did not mention that this idea was proposed by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

By 77–16, voters thought there should be laws requiring equal salaries for men and women in the same position, but by 49–45 they said gender equality has come far enough already. On social and economic inequality, 57% (down two since May 2024) thought it is increasing, 29% (up three) staying about the same and 10% (up one) decreasing.

Core inflation dropped in December quarter

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released inflation data for the December quarter on January 29. Headline inflation was up 0.2% in December, unchanged from the September quarter, with annual inflation down from 2.8% to 2.4%. The peak annual inflation was 7.8% in December 2022.

Core (trimmed mean) inflation increased 0.5% in December, down from 0.8% in September, for an annual rate of 3.2%, down from 3.6% in September. Annual core inflation peaked at 6.8% in December 2022.

The ABC’s report said financial markets thought there was now a 90% chance of an interest rate cut when the Reserve Bank board meets on February 17–18. A rate cut would be good news for the government.

Morgan and DemosAU polls are tied

A national Morgan poll, conducted January 27 to February 2 from a sample of 1,694, had a 50–50 tie by headline respondent preferences, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous poll. This is the first time the Coalition has not led in a Morgan poll since late November.

Primary votes were 38.5% Coalition (down two), 30% Labor (up 0.5), 11.5% Greens (steady), 5.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 10.5% independents (up 1.5) and 4% others (up 0.5). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 50.5–49.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor.

The previous Morgan poll, conducted January 20–26 from a sample of 1,567, gave the Coalition a 52–48 lead by respondent preferences, unchanged from the January 13–19 poll.

Primary votes were 40.5% Coalition (down 1.5), 29.5% Labor (up one), 11.5% Greens (down 1.5), 6% One Nation (up two), 9% independents (up 0.5) and 3.5% others (down 0.5). By 2022 election flows, the Coalition led by 51–49, a one-point gain for Labor.

A DemosAU national poll, conducted January 28 to February 1 from a sample of 1,238, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged since November. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all Others (down one).

DemosAU is using 2022 election flows for its polls. The primary votes would be expected to give Labor a 51–49 lead, so rounding probably contributed to the tie.

Freshwater breakdowns of young men and young women

The Financial Review had breakdowns of voting intentions and other questions from the last three national Freshwater polls on January 28. These polls were conducted from November to January from an overall sample of 3,160. This analysis focused on differences between men and women aged 18–34.

Among young women, Labor and the Greens each had 32% of the primary vote, while the Coalition was at just 25%. Among young men, Labor had 36%, the Coalition 32% and the Greens 20%. I estimate young women would vote Labor by about 65–35 and young men by 59–41 after preferences.

While there is a difference between young men and women, Labor would easily win the overall youth vote in this poll. Labor’s problems in the overall polls are due to older voters skewing to the Coalition.

Young women preferred Albanese as PM to Dutton by 58–27, while young men preferred Albanese by 55–37. With young women, Albanese was at net -11 approval and Dutton at net -22. With young men, Albanese was at net +6 approval and Dutton at net -6. Young men were much more positive than young women about the direction of the country and the economy.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. WA Labor has thumping Newspoll lead a month before election; federal Labor improves – https://theconversation.com/wa-labor-has-thumping-newspoll-lead-a-month-before-election-federal-labor-improves-248437

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christine McCarthy, Senior Lecturer in Interior Architecture, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Prisons are not colourful places. Typically, they are grey or some variation of a monochrome colour scheme. But increasingly, such a limited palette is being questioned for its impact on health and rehabilitation.

As the US journalist and broadcaster Michael Montgomery once wrote of the supermax unit of Pelican Bay prison in California:

I saw a relentlessly dull world; just concrete and steel […] The monochrome landscape seemed to permeate even the faces of the inmates here; men […] had a pasty, ghostly pallor. It was difficult to imagine any kind of sustained life here.

Prison greyness is partly due to the predominance of steel and concrete, especially in high- and maximum-security units. But the furniture and fixtures – tables, seats and toilets – are also often stainless-steel grey. In New Zealand, even sentenced prisoners’ clothing is grey.

One reason for this is the Department of Corrections’ concern about gang colours. New Zealand prisoners cannot keep any item of property with gang-related colours. These prohibitions can be zealously but inconsistently enforced.

As a prisoner once explained to me (when I was president of the Wellington Howard League), a calculator he used for correspondence classes was allowed in one unit but banned in another, simply because it had a blue strip on it.

Something similar was reported by the Prison Inspectorate in a 2019 report. In that case, staff withheld “black underwear containing small amounts of blue stitching. Staff confirmed this was their approach.”

Worlds without colour

Does colour matter in human environments? The answer appears to be yes. Examples include red increasing heart rates, blue and green creating calm, and yellow evoking hope. According to Australian researcher Thomas Edwards:

yellow may be appropriate in contexts where high motivation and a future-focus are required. By contrast, green and blue may be relevant to settings where low motivation, a present focus, and prosocial behaviours are favoured.

Colour can also help with legibility and way-finding, and differentiate surfaces to prevent trip hazards – an increasingly important factor as the prison population ages.

Other over-represented groups in prison can also benefit. For example, Israeli research published in 2022 concluded that soft natural colours and low contrast can improve environments for people with autism spectrum disorder.

Ultimately, a colourless world is not a good one. Grey and neutral colours reduce visual stimulation, demotivate, increase boredom and can lead to depression. Colour takes on particular importance for people who spend most or all of the day indoors, such as the prisoners in high- and maximum-security units.

The need for variety

Colour has a graduated spectrum – there isn’t only one blue, for example. Tints, tones and shades add another level of complexity. Coloured surfaces are affected by their material and degree of sheen. Different combinations of colours and different light sources also affect how a colour looks and its likely impact on people.

This means there are many possible variants to consider. But most research is highly specific and the findings are rarely universally applicable. The impact of context, cultural differences, our personal preferences and colour associations can also be difficult to measure.

But this theoretical complexity shouldn’t prevent the use of more colour in prison architecture. Variety in colour, rather than the use of specific colours, is the fundamental change that is needed. Likewise, concerns about gang colours can be mitigated if pattern and colour combinations are astutely used.

In 2019, Edinburgh College of Art researchers led a project involving dementia patients, adding colour to corridors at the Royal Edinburgh Hospital. Multicoloured strips of block colours were painted on the white corridor walls to relieve the monotony of these spaces.

Fewer aggressive incidents between patients or with staff were reported after the project. The specific reason is unclear, but it appears better demarcation of spaces led to fewer patients congregating and causing conflict in circulation areas.

Another example at a semi-open prison in Bosnia saw prisoners painting diagonal lines on walls, creating triangles painted in different colours. Researchers concluded that “bright colours are recommended in the prison, with green and blue […] being the best rated because people perceive them as soothing, stimulating, pleasant and safe”.

Brighter futures

There are many other instances in healthcare settings throughout New Zealand where decals of photographic or other images have transformed walls, lifting the atmosphere of a space.

Increasing the amount of colour on a wall is an inexpensive way to improve prison environments for both staff and prisoners. It can easily create variety and relieve the tedium of otherwise indistinguishable spaces.

Housing prisoners in a dreary architecture of grey walls, grey furniture and people in grey jumpsuits must make it difficult for them to imagine and prepare for a positive future in the community.

This can be inferred from studies of prisoners in solitary confinement which have established that living in extremely monotonous environments can cause depression, paranoia, anxiety, aggression and self-harm.

The new expansion to Waikeria Prison, and its 100-bed mental health unit Hikitia, is an opportunity to significantly shift this attitude to prison interior architecture – but it shouldn’t stop there.

All prisons would benefit from replacing the typically monochromatic palette of prison architecture with something more colourful.

Christine McCarthy is a past President of the Wellington Howard League for Penal Reform (2018–20).

– ref. ‘A relentlessly dull world’ – the case for adding more colour to NZ’s grey prisons – https://theconversation.com/a-relentlessly-dull-world-the-case-for-adding-more-colour-to-nzs-grey-prisons-248665

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lina Eklund, Associate Senior Lecturer, Lund University

The ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas makes provisions for the passage of food and humanitarian aid into Gaza. This support is much needed given that Gaza’s agricultural system has been severely damaged over the course of the war.

Over the past 17 months we have analysed satellite images across the Gaza Strip to quantify the scale of agricultural destruction across the region. Our newly published research reveals not only the widespread extent of this destruction but also the potentially unprecedented pace at which it occurred. Our work covers the period until September 2024 but further data through to January 2025 is also available.

Before the war, tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers and strawberries were grown in open fields and greenhouses, and olive and citrus trees lined rows across the Gazan landscape. The trees in particular are an important cultural heritage in the region, and agriculture was a vital part of Gaza’s economy. About half of the food eaten there was produced in the territory itself, and food made up a similar portion of its exports.

By December 2023, only two months into the war, there were official warnings that the entire population of Gaza, more than 2 million people, was facing high levels of acute food insecurity. While that assessment was based on interviews and survey data, the level of agricultural damage across the whole landscape remained out of view.

Most olive and citrus trees are gone

To address this problem, we mapped the damage to tree crops – mostly olive and citrus trees – in Gaza each month over the course of the war up until September 2024. Together with our colleagues Dimah Habash and Mazin Qumsiyeh, we did this using very high-resolution satellite imagery, detailed enough to focus on individual trees.

We first visually identified tree crops with and without damage to “train” our computer program, or model, so it knew what to look for. We then ran the model on all the satellite data. We also looked over a sample of results ourselves to confirm it was accurate.

Our results showed that between 64% and 70% of all tree crop fields in Gaza had been damaged. That can either mean a few trees being destroyed, the whole field of trees completely removed, or anything in between. Most damage took place during the first few months of the war in autumn 2023. Exactly who destroyed these trees and why is beyond the scope of our research or expertise.

In some areas, every greenhouse is gone

As greenhouses look very different in satellite images, we used a separate method to map damage to them. We found over 4,000 had been damaged by September 2024, which is more than half of the total we had identified before the start of the war.

In the south of the territory, where most greenhouses were found, the destruction was fairly steady from December 2023 onwards.

But in north Gaza and Gaza City, the two most northerly of the territory’s five governorates, most of the damage had already taken place by November and December 2023. By the end of our study period, all 578 greenhouses there had been destroyed.

North Gaza and Gaza City have also seen the most damage to tree crop fields. By September 2024, over 90% of all tree crops in Gaza City had been destroyed, and 73% had been lost in north Gaza. In the three southern governorates, Khan Younis, Deir al-Balah and Rafah, around 50% of all tree crops had been destroyed.

Agricultural damage is common in armed conflict, and has been documented with satellite analysis in Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion, in Syria and Iraq during the ISIS occupation in 2015, and in the Caucasus during the Chechen wars in the 1990s and 2000s.

The exact impact can differ from conflict to conflict. War may directly damage lands, as we have seen in Gaza, or it may lead to more fallow areas as infrastructure is damaged and farmers are forced to flee. A conflict also increases the need for local agricultural production, especially when food imports are restricted.

Our assessment shows a very high rate of direct and extensive damage to Gaza’s agricultural system, both compared to previous conflict escalations there in 2014 and 2021, and in other conflict settings. For example, during the July-August war in 2014, around 1,200 greenhouses were damaged in Gaza. This time round at least three times as many have been damaged.

Agricultural attacks are unlawful

Attacks on agricultural lands are prohibited under international law. The Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court from 1998 defines the intentional use of starvation of civilians through “depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival” as a war crime. The Geneva conventions further define such indispensable objects as “foodstuffs, agricultural areas for the production offoodstuffs, crops, livestock, drinking water installations and supplies and irrigation works”.

Our study provides transparent statistics on the extent and timing of damage to Gaza’s agricultural system. As well as documenting the impacts of the war, we hope it can help the massive rebuilding efforts that will be required.

Restoring Gaza’s agricultural system goes beyond clearing debris and rubble, and rebuilding greenhouses. The soils need to be cleaned from possible contamination. Sewage and irrigation infrastructure need to be rebuilt.

Such efforts may take a generation or more to complete. After all, olive and citrus trees can take five or more years to become productive, and 15 years to reach full maturity. After previous attacks on Gaza the trees were mostly replanted, and perhaps the same will happen again this time. But it’s for good reason they say that only people with hope for the future plant trees.

Lina Eklund receives funding from the Swedish National Space Agency and the Strategic Research Area: The Middle East in the Contemporary World (MECW) at the Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, Sweden.

He Yin receives funding from NASA.

Jamon Van Den Hoek receives funding from NASA.

– ref. Gaza: we analysed a year of satellite images to map the scale of agricultural destruction – https://theconversation.com/gaza-we-analysed-a-year-of-satellite-images-to-map-the-scale-of-agricultural-destruction-248796

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jenny Allen, Postdoctoral research associate, Griffith University

All known human languages display a surprising pattern: the most frequent word in a language is twice as frequent as the second most frequent, three times as frequent as the third, and so on. This is known as Zipf’s law.

Researchers have hunted for evidence of this pattern in communication among other species, but until now no other examples have been found.

In new research published today in Science, our team of experts in whale song, linguistics and developmental psychology analysed eight years’ of song recordings from humpback whales in New Caledonia. Led by Inbal Arnon from the Hebrew University, Ellen Garland from the University of St Andrews, and Simon Kirby from the University of Edinburgh, We used techniques inspired by the way human infants learn language to analyse humpback whale song.

We discovered that the same Zipfian pattern universally found across human languages also occurs in whale song. This complex signalling system, like human language, is culturally learned by each individual from others.

Learning like an infant

When infant humans are learning, they have to somehow discover where words start and end. Speech is continuous and does not come with gaps between words that they can use. So how do they break into language?

Thirty years of research has revealed that they do this by listening for sounds that are surprising in context: sounds within words are relatively predictable, but between words are relatively unpredictable. We analysed the whale song data using the same procedure.

Unexpectedly, using this technique revealed in whale song the same statistical properties that are found in all languages. It turns out both human language and whale song have statistically coherent parts.

In other words, they both contain recurring parts where the transitions between elements are more predictable within the part. Moreover, these recurring sub-sequences we detected follow the Zipfian frequency distribution found across all human languages, and not found before in other species.

How do the same statistical properties arise in two evolutionarily distant species that differ from one another in so many ways? We suggest we found these similarities because humans and whales share a learning mechanism: culture.

A cultural origin

Our findings raise an exciting question: why would such different systems in such incredibly distant species have common structures? We suggest the reason behind this is that both are culturally learned.

Cultural evolution inevitably leads to the emergence of properties that make learning easier. If a system is hard to learn, it will not survive to the next generation of learners.

There is growing evidence from experiments with humans that having statistically coherent parts, and having them follow a Zipfian distribution, makes learning easier. This suggests that learning and transmission play an important role in how these properties emerged in both human language and whale song.

So can we talk to whales now?

Finding parallel structures between whale song and human language may also lead to another question: can we talk to whales now? The short answer is no, not at all.

Our study does not examine the meaning behind whale song sequences. We have no idea what these segments might mean to the whales, if they mean anything at all.

It might help to think about it like instrumental music, as music also contains similar structures. A melody can be learned, repeated, and spread – but that doesn’t give meaning to the musical notes in the same way that individual words have meaning.

Next up: birdsong

Our work also makes a bold prediction: we should find this Zipfian distribution wherever complex communication is transmitted culturally. Humans and whales are not the only species that do this.

We find what is known as “vocal production learning” in an unusual range of species across the animal kingdom. Song birds in particular may provide the best place to look as many bird species culturally learn their songs, and unlike in whales, we know a lot about precisely how birds learn song.

Equally, we expect not to find these statistical properties in the communication of species that don’t transmit complex communication by learning. This will help to reveal whether cultural evolution is the common driver of these properties between humans and whales.

Ellen Garland received funding from the following grants for this work:
Royal Society University Research Fellowship (UF160081 and
URFR221020), Royal Society Research Fellows Enhancement
Award (RGFEA180213), Royal Society Research Grants for
Research Fellows 2018 (RGFR1181014), National Geographic
Grant (NGS-50654R-18), Carnegie Trust Research Incentive Grant
(RIG007772), British Ecological Society Small Research Grant
(SR18/1288), and School of Biology Research Committee funding.

Inbal Arnon, Jenny Allen, and Simon Kirby do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Whalesong patterns follow a universal law of human language, new research finds – https://theconversation.com/whalesong-patterns-follow-a-universal-law-of-human-language-new-research-finds-249271