Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shea X. Fan, Associate Professor, Human Resource Management, Deakin University

Too often, it’s anti-immigration sentiment dominating headlines in Australia. But a quieter story is going untold. Migrants are not just fitting into Australian society, they’re actively reshaping it through entrepreneurship.

Starting a business is difficult for anyone. But migrant entrepreneurs often do so without the networks, credit history, or local knowledge many Australian-born business owners take for granted.

Our new research drew on interviews with 38 migrant business owners from 25 different countries, who had all lived in Australia for at least five years.

We found many are able to turn everyday exclusion into entrepreneurial fuel.
Many have been able to survive – even thrive – by turning their identity into an asset.

Yet there is still more we can do to take migrant entrepreneurship seriously and make it a core part of our economic and social planning.

Key challenges

Our research reveals migrant business owners face many forms of marginalisation. Some of these are well-understood among the public, others less so.

One of the biggest is social. Arriving in a new country without established relationships in the community or financial sector, many struggle to gain customer trust or secure loans. It can also mean having less of a safety net.

As one interviewee put it:

I don’t have networks built up over the generations to sustain me and give me time to jump back out [of financial difficulties] […] For migrant entrepreneurs, we often do not have such a structure to absorb risks.

Cultural stereotypes also hinder migrant entrepreneurs, and negative media portrayals can reinforce these biases. Even with local qualifications, they are often perceived as less professional or competent due to race, religion, accent or appearance.

Many interviewees spoke of constantly having to prove their legitimacy – being overlooked, second-guessed or treated as representatives of their ethnic group rather than as individual business people.

Structural barriers

While the lack of networks and cultural acceptance undermines confidence and connection, structural barriers directly constrain access to the resources needed to survive and expand.

Without a local credit history or collateral, many are ineligible for loans, yet need those very funds to build their credit standing. Even long-settled migrants found Australia’s legal, bureaucratic and financial systems difficult to navigate.

Language barriers and unfamiliar regulations can add layers of complexity to this problem. While government support programs exist, they are often inaccessible, or the availability of those programs are poorly communicated to culturally diverse communities.

These social and systemic disadvantages can push migrant business owners into informal markets or ethnic enclaves, where opportunities are fewer and risks higher.

Turning identity into an asset

Despite these barriers, migrant entrepreneurs often find ways to survive. One key strategy is to turn marginalised identities into business strengths.

Our research found some migrants begin by serving customers from their own ethnic communities, leveraging shared language, culture and trust. Once established, they expand to other migrant groups or the broader public.

In sectors such as food, fashion and wellness, cultural authenticity can be a competitive advantage.

One hairdresser from Korea, for example, drew clients by offering Korean styling techniques popularised by the global rise of the Korean popular music style K-pop. She said this gave her work appeal among other migrant groups:

Korean hairdressers are actually attractive to other Asian countries because Korean hairstyles are considered fashionable and detailed. It’s getting popular here too. This is like free marketing for me.

And rather than simply competing on price, many migrant businesses offer something different: handmade, ethical, sustainable or culturally-rooted products. An Indian small business owner started her business by selling curry pastes made from her own family recipes, telling us:

I use my family’s traditional Indian recipes to create small spice packs, making it easy for Australians, mostly non-Indian customers, to cook authentic dishes at home.

Such ventures create not only economic value, but also spaces of cultural exchange and community belonging.

There’s more we can do

The most recent figures show migrant entrepreneurs make up one in three small business owners in Australia. Research conducted in 2017 found the vast majority of migrant entrepreneurs had not owned a business before migration.

With fewer systemic barriers and better support, their potential to contribute would be even greater. There are a range of actions policymakers, local councils, support organisations and local businesses could take.

First, access could be expanded to small business grants by removing overly complex eligibility and documentation barriers.

We should also support migrants to navigate collectively “gatekeeping” practices that lock them out of lending, investment and business certification.

That could include developing alternative credit assessment tools for migrants without a local credit history. There are already some microloan schemes tailored to new migrants or visa holders, including Thrive Refugee Enterprise.

At the same time, we need to ensure such schemes are being effectively communicated to the communities they’re intended to serve.

And we need media narratives and public campaigns that highlight successful migrant businesses. Crucially, both policy and practice must be informed by the voices and experiences of migrant entrepreneurs themselves, not just as case studies, but as co-designers of better systems.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How migrant business owners turn their identity into an asset, despite some bumps along the way – https://theconversation.com/how-migrant-business-owners-turn-their-identity-into-an-asset-despite-some-bumps-along-the-way-261948

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Ferris, Senior Lecturer, Media Arts & Production, University of Technology Sydney

A cinematic firecracker of a film exploded onto international screens 50 years ago this week, blending martial arts mayhem, Bond-esque set pieces, casual racism – and a distinctly Australian swagger.

From its audacious visual style; to its complex, life-threatening stunts; to its pioneering status as an international co-production, Brian Trenchard-Smith’s The Man from Hong Kong has solidified its place as a cult classic.

The plot is deceptively simple. A Sydney-based crime lord’s activities come under the scrutiny of a determined Hong Kong detective, Inspector Fang Sing Leng. A fiery East-meets-West martial arts showdown explodes across the Australian landscape, pushing both sides to their limits.

Jimmy Wang Yu (known at the time as Asia’s Steve McQueen) plays Inspector Fang Sing Leng. Fang delivers justice with his fists and uses his wits navigating greater Sydney, with help from the local constabulary and its adoring female population.

The movie is a playful pastiche that confidently combines martial arts action, police procedurals, spy thrillers, and Westerns, all filtered through a distinctly Australian “crash-zoom” lens.

An Australia–Hong Kong co-production

The Man from Hong Kong was the first official Australia–Hong Kong co-production, uniting Hong Kong’s Golden Harvest studio with Australian producer John Fraser.

This model would pave the way for numerous future collaborations – the film demonstrating that Australia was open for international (film) business, albeit with some constraints, such as shooting locales.

In The Man from Hong Kong’s case, the financial arrangement was 50/50. As a result, half of the film had to be shot in Hong Kong, despite 85% of the storyline being set in Australia. Many of the interiors were filmed in Hong Kong studios to meet this production requirement.

An example of this is the interrogation scene, which alternates between its Sydney exteriors and a fight scene taking place in the interior film set shot thousands of miles away at the Golden Harvest studios.

In a genius bit of montage, the scene jumps from a shot of a kick in the crotch to a close-up of pool balls breaking on a table.

A film of cunning stunts

The Man from Hong Kong served as a reunion of sorts for many of the cast and crew, either starring in Stone (1974) or featuring in Trenchard-Smith’s documentary about martial arts films, Kung Fu Killers (1974).

The film was an influence to Quentin Tarantino and paved the way for films such as Mad Max (1979), particularly in what Trenchard-Smith and his partner in film, stunt legend Grant Page, might call its “cunning stunts”.

The elaborate car chases and explosive stunt setups in The Man from Hong Kong served as prototypes for iconic sequences that would inspire the Mad Max films, among others, a testament to a bygone era of practical effects and thrill seeking audacity.

Car crashes and other explosive stunts were executed without permits or road closures. This sense of chaos is heightened by the stunts being performed by the actors themselves, adding a sense of immediacy and peril.

An example of this is set on the cliffs at Stanwell Park. Wang Yu drives at speed towards the waiting Caroline, executing a precision gravel slide that misses Caroline’s car by under a metre, the shot continuing as he exits the car to greet her.

Part character, and part tourism advert

Trenchard-Smith’s script wasn’t shy in its depiction of culture clash, especially when it came to the racist attitudes of the Australian characters.

But as Trenchard-Smith recalls:

Our lead character, a Chinese Dirty Harry/James Bond upends these racial stereotypes by being smarter, sexier, and tougher than his opponents.

Cinematographer Russell Boyd brings a sharp, dynamic (did I mention the crash-zooms?) visual style to the film that deftly matches the on-screen action.

The film’s Australian setting is part character and part tourism advert – from the “Ayers Rock” (Uluru) cold opener, to the cafe scene on the Opera House forecourt.

Pure cinema

Stunt legend Grant Page appears in multiple villainous roles throughout the film, with the martial arts choreography handled by the legendary director Sammo Hung, who also played the role of Win Chan.

The cast was a fascinating mix of talent and personality. Wang Yu, a martial arts icon, was also an established film director, leading to creative clashes on set with Trenchard-Smith.

Playing the film’s villain is George Lazenby, whose casting added another layer of meta-textual intrigue, positioning him as an antagonist to a character who was explicitly a Bond villain archetype.

The Man from Hong Kong remains an exhilarating piece of pure cinema, despite its relatively small budget. It’s an exemplar (and occasional cautionary tale) for filmmakers in terms of international co-production, its cunning stunts, and genre blending.

The film is a testament to a moment when Australian cinema was confidently looking outwards, ready to take on the world, one explosive car crash at a time.

Gregory Ferris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Man from Hong Kong at 50: how the first ever Australian–Hong Kong co-production became a cult classic – https://theconversation.com/the-man-from-hong-kong-at-50-how-the-first-ever-australian-hong-kong-co-production-became-a-cult-classic-260306

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow in Urban Risk and Resilience, The University of Melbourne

Last night, one of the ten largest earthquakes ever recorded struck Kamchatka, the sparsely populated Russian peninsula facing the Pacific. The magnitude 8.8 quake had its epicentre in the sea just off the Kamchatka coast.

Huge quakes such as these can cause devastating tsunamis. It’s no surprise this quake has triggered mass evacuations in Russia, Japan and Hawaii.

But despite the enormous strength of the quake, the waves expected from the resulting tsunami are projected to be remarkably small. Four metre-high waves have been reported in Russia. But the waves are projected to be far smaller elsewhere, ranging from 30 centimetres to 1 metre in China, and between 1 and 3 metres in parts of Japan, Hawaii and the Solomon Islands, as well as Ecuador and Chile on the other side of the Pacific.

So why have authorities in Japan and parts of the United States announced evacuation orders? For one thing, tsunami waves can suddenly escalate, and even the smaller tsunami waves can pack surprising force. But the main reason is that late evacuation orders can cause panic and chaos. It’s far better to err on the side of caution.

Too early is far better than too late

When tsunami monitoring centres issue early warnings about waves, there’s often a wide range given. That represents the significant uncertainty about what the final wave size will be.

As earthquake scientists Judith Hubbard and Kyle Bradley write:

the actual wave height at the shore depends on the specific bathymetry [underwater topography] of the ocean floor and shape of the coastline. Furthermore, how that wave impacts the coast depends on the topography on land. Do not second-guess a tsunami warning: evacuate to higher ground and wait for the all-clear.

If the decision was left to ordinary people to decide whether to evacuate, many might look at the projected wave heights and think “what’s the problem?”. This is why evacuation is usually a job for experts.

Behavioural scientists have found people are more likely to follow evacuation advice if they perceive the risk is real, if they trust the authorities and if there are social cues such as friends, family or neighbours evacuating.

If evacuations are done well, authorities will direct people down safe roads to shelters or safe zones located high enough above the ocean.

When people outside official evacuation zones flee on their own, this is known as a shadow evacuation. It often happens when people misunderstand warnings, don’t trust official boundaries, or feel safer leaving “just in case”.

While understandable, shadow evacuations can overload roads, clog evacuation routes, and strain shelters and resources intended for those at greatest risk.

Vulnerable groups such as older people and those with a disability often evacuate more slowly or not at all, putting them at much greater risk.

In wealthy nations such as Japan where tsunamis are a regular threat, drills and risk education have made evacuations run more smoothly and get more people to evacuate.

Japan also has designated vertical shelters – buildings to which people can flee – as well as coastal sirens and signs pointing to tsunami “safe zones”.

By contrast, most developing nations affected by tsunamis don’t have these systems or infrastructure in place. Death tolls are inevitably higher as a result.

More accurate warnings, fewer false alarms

A false alarm occurs when a tsunami warning is issued, but no hazardous waves arrive. False alarms often stem from the need to act fast. Because tsunamis can reach coastlines within minutes of an undersea earthquake, early warnings are based on limited and imprecise data — mainly the quake’s location and magnitude — before the tsunami’s actual size or impact is known.

In the past, tsunami alerts were issued using worst-case estimates based on simple tables linking quake size and location to fixed alert levels. These did not account for complex uncertainties in how the seafloor moved or how energy translated into how much water was displaced.

Even when waves are small at sea, they can behave unpredictably near shore. Tide gauge readings are easily distorted by nearby bays, seafloor shape and water depth. This approach often came at the cost of frequent false alarms.

A stark example came in 1986, when Hawaii undertook a major evacuation following an earthquake off the Aleutian Islands. While the tsunami did arrive on time, the waves didn’t cause any flooding. The evacuation triggered massive gridlock, halted businesses and cost the state an estimated A$63 million.

In 1987, the United States launched the DART program. This network of deep-sea buoys across the Pacific and, later, globally, measure changes in ocean pressure in real time, allowing scientists to verify whether a tsunami has actually been generated and to estimate its size far more accurately.

When there’s a tsunami false alarm, it makes people more sceptical of evacuation orders and compliance drops. Some people want to see the threat with their own eyes. But this delays action – and heightens the danger.

Shifting from simple tables and inferences to observational data has significantly reduced false alarms and improved public confidence. Today’s tsunami warnings combine quake analysis with real-time ocean data.

What have we learned from past tsunamis?

In 2004, a huge 9.1 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Aceh in Indonesia triggered the Indian Ocean tsunami, the deadliest in recorded history. Waves up to 30 metres high inundated entire cities and towns.

More than 227,000 people died throughout the region, primarily in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. All these countries had low tsunami preparedness. At the time, there were no tsunami warning systems in the Indian Ocean.

The even stronger 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan killed just under 20,000 people. It was a terrible toll, but far fewer than the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Evacuations took place and many people got to higher ground or into a high building.

In 2018, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake hit central Sulawesi in Indonesia, triggering tsunami waves up to 7 metres high. Citizen disbelief and a lack of clear communication meant many people did not evacuate in time. More than 4,000 people died.

These examples show the importance of warning systems and evacuations. But they also show their limitations. Even with warning systems in place, major loss of life can still ensue due to public scepticism and communication failures.

What should people do?

At their worst, tsunamis can devastate swathes of coastline and kill hundreds of thousands of people. They should not be underestimated.

If authorities issue an evacuation order, it is absolutely worth following. It’s far better to evacuate early and find a safe space in an orderly way, than to leave it too late and try to escape a city or town amid traffic jams, flooded roads and and widespread disruption.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Tsunami warnings are triggering mass evacuations across the Pacific – even though the waves look small. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/tsunami-warnings-are-triggering-mass-evacuations-across-the-pacific-even-though-the-waves-look-small-heres-why-262224

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

Inflation is moving in the right direction, but new figures released today may not be soft enough to trigger a cut in official interest rates in August.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the June quarter consumer price index (CPI) data, providing a timely update on how price pressures are tracking as the Reserve Bank of Australia weighs further interest rate cuts.

With the next policy-setting meeting scheduled for August 11-12, today’s inflation report will offer important input into the decision.

Headline CPI rose by 0.7% in the June quarter, easing from 0.9% in March. The annual inflation rate slowed from 2.4% to 2.1%, a four-year low.

The figures indicate inflation is continuing to moderate and is settling within the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target band.

But headline inflation is only part of the story. The Reserve Bank focuses more on underlying inflation, which strips out volatile price moves.

Its preferred underlying measure, the trimmed mean CPI, rose by 0.6% in the June quarter. The annual rate fell from 2.9% to 2.7%. That’s slightly higher than the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 2.6%.

Jump in clothing and footwear

Among the 11 groups of goods and services that make up the CPI, clothing and footwear recorded the largest rise in the June quarter, up 2.6%. Health costs followed with a 1.5% increase, while housing rose 1.2%.

Housing remains among the top three contributors to inflation, driven by persistent increases in rents and insurance premiums. These pressures weigh heavily on household budgets and feed directly into core inflation. But the Reserve Bank recognises this challenge cannot be easily addressed through interest rates alone.

The biggest offset came from transport (-0.7%), due to a slide in petrol prices and discounted public transport fares in Brisbane, Darwin, Hobart, Perth and Canberra.

Does the data support further rate cuts?

The Reserve Bank unexpectedly held interest rates steady at 3.85% at its July meeting, surprising economists and financial markets and earning a sharp response from Treasurer Jim Chalmers.

Explaining the decision, Governor Michele Bullock warned inflation pressures were proving stickier than desired and the bank wanted to see further inflation data. After the board meeting on July 8, the governor said:

We just want to confirm with a full quarterly CPI that we’re still on track to deliver inflation continuing down to the middle of the [2-3% target] band over time. That’s the reason we’re waiting.

Today’s figures confirm inflation is easing, but not as quickly as the bank would like. With the underlying rate still above forecast, the Reserve Bank board may prefer to wait for the September quarter data before cutting interest rates, giving it greater confidence the slowdown is durable.

For his part, Chalmers described the inflation report on Wednesday as “pretty stunning numbers” and added:

No doubt the Reserve Bank board will weigh that up.

How close is the RBA to its inflation target?

This is the second straight quarter with underlying inflation below 3%, a marked improvement from 2023 when inflation was far above target. The headline rate, now at 2.1%, sits comfortably within the 2–3% target band.

But the Reserve Bank wants more than a couple of good quarters. It is looking for sustained evidence that underlying inflation is drifting lower and likely to stay there. At 2.7%, the underlying measure remains near the top of the band. More subdued results would help build the case for cutting rates again and reassure policymakers that inflation is firmly under control.

“Provided we are still on top of inflation, which is what we intend to be, and we’re getting confirmation that we are, then yes, there is an easing cycle coming,” Bullock noted.

She was signalling that rate cuts are on the table, but not yet guaranteed.

What’s the rate outlook for the rest of the year?

Among the big four banks, Westpac expects the first cut in August but says it could slip to November if inflation proves stickier than expected. ANZ and NAB both forecast cuts in August and November, with NAB pencilling in another for early 2026. Commonwealth Bank also sees two cuts this year but warns the timing could change if inflation eases more slowly.

The split in forecasts highlights the uncertainty ahead. Much will hinge on the September quarter CPI, which will reveal whether today’s trend continues or stalls.

The broader economy remains soft. Retail spending is subdued, construction is slowing, and businesses are cautious about investing. Households are under pressure from high mortgage repayments and rising rents, leaving little room for discretionary spending.

Unemployment has ticked up to 4.3%, but jobs are still relatively tight. Wage growth has eased, though labour costs remain high, keeping pressure on services inflation. Elevated rents, insurance and other essentials are also squeezing households, creating a difficult environment for consumers and policymakers alike.

The Reserve Bank faces a delicate balancing act: bringing inflation back to the middle of the target without tipping the economy into a sharper downturn.

Today’s data is another step in the right direction, but it may not yet give the bank the confidence to act. Rate cuts are coming — just not until inflation shows a steadier decline.

Stella Huangfu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Inflation slows again — but is it enough for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates? – https://theconversation.com/inflation-slows-again-but-is-it-enough-for-the-reserve-bank-to-cut-interest-rates-262039

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University

One of the smallest and most exclusive clubs in the world belongs to states. The US Department of State puts the number of independent recognised states at 197, while others count 200.

The United Nations, meanwhile, has 193 member states. This number has grown rapidly since the second world war, from the 51 original members, to 99 by 1960, and then 189 by 2000.

But UN membership is not determinative of statehood. Switzerland famously held out on joining the UN until 2002, due to concerns over compromising its neutrality.

States have come and gone in recent decades. Some, like Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, have splintered into numerous new independent states. Nearly all have international recognition, but Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008, has only been recognised by just over half of UN members.

Becoming a recognised state is, therefore, dynamic and involves complicated political, legal and diplomatic processes. All of these are currently at play in the case of recognising Palestine.

Major powers signal a shift

Approximately 147 states currently recognise the state of Palestine. The exceptions include the United States and many of its allies, such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.

However, the past week has seen a significant shift among these holdouts. First, France announced it would recognise Palestine at the UN General Assembly meetings in September.

Then, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer took a major step by saying his country would do the same unless Israel agrees to a number of conditions.

Highlighting how political the act of recognition is, these conditions included:

• a permanent ceasefire with Hamas
• allowing aid to flow into Gaza
• demonstrating a commitment to the two-state solution
• guaranteeing the West Bank will not be annexed, a stated aspiration of some Israeli politicians.

With the UK’s step, other nations may now follow suit, including Australia, which has inched closer to formal recognition in recent weeks.

Read more:
UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here’s what that would mean

Criteria for recognition

The 1933 Montevideo Convention on Rights and Duties of States identifies four key legal criteria for a new state to be recognised:

• defined boundaries
• a permanent population
• a government, and
• the capacity to enter into international relations.

Those criteria have been interpreted and applied flexibly. For example, there has been debate about how governments of newly formed states come to power: should those resulting from military might have the same legitimacy as those established by democratic processes?

Read more:
Palestine has been recognised by more than 140 nations – but not yet Australia. So, what exactly defines a ‘state’?

Over the past week, a clearer picture has emerged as to the additional conditions Australia is setting for the recognition of Palestine.

These include the release of the remaining Israeli hostages captured in Hamas’ attack in October 2023, the demilitarisation of Hamas, and the reform of the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs the West Bank.

Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since elections in 2006, is central to two of these requirements. While the hostages may eventually be released, the demilitarisation of Hamas appears unlikely in the short term.

In addition, how the Palestinian Authority could be reformed to Australia’s satisfaction is very unclear. Elections would certainly be a step forward. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has indicated he is prepared to hold presidential and parliamentary elections by the end of 2025, yet it is difficult to see free and fair elections being held in Gaza while it is under Israeli assault.

With these preconditions, Australia has set a high bar for recognition. It seems unlikely all would be met by the time the UN General Assembly meets in September.

What would Australian recognition mean?

History shows that once Australia bestows recognition on a state, it will not be revoked. Irrespective of how distasteful a foreign government or regime may be, including how a leader or party comes to power, Australia will continue to recognise the existence of the state.

The multiple changes in government in Afghanistan since 2001 and the eventual return to power of the Taliban in 2021 is a case in point. The military coup that overthrew Myanmar’s democratically elected government in 2021 is another.

While diplomatic relations have proven challenging with these new governing regimes, Australia continues to recognise the existence of these states.

The domestic and international momentum suggests that Australian recognition of Palestine is now inevitable. When it occurs there will be immediate consequences. Recognition isn’t just symbolic – it has real, practical effects.

First, Palestine and Australia would establish formal diplomatic relations. The existing Palestinian Authority representative office in Canberra would become the country’s official embassy. Australian aid and assistance would also be able to flow directly to Palestine without having to pass through UN agencies. This would be crucial for the eventual rebuilding of Gaza.

In short, Palestine will move out of the shadows and be treated as any other state that Australia has recognised and has relations with.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says he does not want Australian recognition of Palestine to be a “gesture”. It is unclear what is meant by this. Legally and politically, that could never be the case.

Australia’s position is probably more one of caution. Albanese wants to ensure recognition from Canberra is meaningful and Australia is able to fully support an independent Palestine freed from Israeli military occupation.

Donald Rothwell receives funding from Australian Research Council

– ref. With the UK and France moving toward recognising Palestine, will Australia now follow suit? – https://theconversation.com/with-the-uk-and-france-moving-toward-recognising-palestine-will-australia-now-follow-suit-262201

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University

One of the smallest and most exclusive clubs in the world belongs to states. The US Department of State puts the number of independent recognised states at 197, while others count 200.

The United Nations, meanwhile, has 193 member states. This number has grown rapidly since the second world war, from the 51 original members, to 99 by 1960, and then 189 by 2000.

But UN membership is not determinative of statehood. Switzerland famously held out on joining the UN until 2002, due to concerns over compromising its neutrality.

States have come and gone in recent decades. Some, like Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, have splintered into numerous new independent states. Nearly all have international recognition, but Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008, has only been recognised by just over half of UN members.

Becoming a recognised state is, therefore, dynamic and involves complicated political, legal and diplomatic processes. All of these are currently at play in the case of recognising Palestine.

Major powers signal a shift

Approximately 147 states currently recognise the state of Palestine. The exceptions include the United States and many of its allies, such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.

However, the past week has seen a significant shift among these holdouts. First, France announced it would recognise Palestine at the UN General Assembly meetings in September.

Then, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer took a major step by saying his country would do the same unless Israel agrees to a number of conditions.

Highlighting how political the act of recognition is, these conditions included:

• a permanent ceasefire with Hamas
• allowing aid to flow into Gaza
• demonstrating a commitment to the two-state solution
• guaranteeing the West Bank will not be annexed, a stated aspiration of some Israeli politicians.

With the UK’s step, other nations may now follow suit, including Australia, which has inched closer to formal recognition in recent weeks.

Read more:
UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here’s what that would mean

Criteria for recognition

The 1933 Montevideo Convention on Rights and Duties of States identifies four key legal criteria for a new state to be recognised:

• defined boundaries
• a permanent population
• a government, and
• the capacity to enter into international relations.

Those criteria have been interpreted and applied flexibly. For example, there has been debate about how governments of newly formed states come to power: should those resulting from military might have the same legitimacy as those established by democratic processes?

Read more:
Palestine has been recognised by more than 140 nations – but not yet Australia. So, what exactly defines a ‘state’?

Over the past week, a clearer picture has emerged as to the additional conditions Australia is setting for the recognition of Palestine.

These include the release of the remaining Israeli hostages captured in Hamas’ attack in October 2023, the demilitarisation of Hamas, and the reform of the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs the West Bank.

Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since elections in 2006, is central to two of these requirements. While the hostages may eventually be released, the demilitarisation of Hamas appears unlikely in the short term.

In addition, how the Palestinian Authority could be reformed to Australia’s satisfaction is very unclear. Elections would certainly be a step forward. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has indicated he is prepared to hold presidential and parliamentary elections by the end of 2025, yet it is difficult to see free and fair elections being held in Gaza while it is under Israeli assault.

With these preconditions, Australia has set a high bar for recognition. It seems unlikely all would be met by the time the UN General Assembly meets in September.

What would Australian recognition mean?

History shows that once Australia bestows recognition on a state, it will not be revoked. Irrespective of how distasteful a foreign government or regime may be, including how a leader or party comes to power, Australia will continue to recognise the existence of the state.

The multiple changes in government in Afghanistan since 2001 and the eventual return to power of the Taliban in 2021 is a case in point. The military coup that overthrew Myanmar’s democratically elected government in 2021 is another.

While diplomatic relations have proven challenging with these new governing regimes, Australia continues to recognise the existence of these states.

The domestic and international momentum suggests that Australian recognition of Palestine is now inevitable. When it occurs there will be immediate consequences. Recognition isn’t just symbolic – it has real, practical effects.

First, Palestine and Australia would establish formal diplomatic relations. The existing Palestinian Authority representative office in Canberra would become the country’s official embassy. Australian aid and assistance would also be able to flow directly to Palestine without having to pass through UN agencies. This would be crucial for the eventual rebuilding of Gaza.

In short, Palestine will move out of the shadows and be treated as any other state that Australia has recognised and has relations with.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says he does not want Australian recognition of Palestine to be a “gesture”. It is unclear what is meant by this. Legally and politically, that could never be the case.

Australia’s position is probably more one of caution. Albanese wants to ensure recognition from Canberra is meaningful and Australia is able to fully support an independent Palestine freed from Israeli military occupation.

Donald Rothwell receives funding from Australian Research Council

– ref. With the UK and France moving toward recognising Palestine, will Australia follow suit? – https://theconversation.com/with-the-uk-and-france-moving-toward-recognising-palestine-will-australia-follow-suit-262201

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ekant Veer, Professor, University of Canterbury

When a scandal goes viral – as it recently did for the former chief executive of IT company Astronomer at a Coldplay concert – companies face nuanced challenges in a new era of crisis communication.

The clip of Andy Byron embracing his colleague Kristin Cabot generated millions of views within minutes. It drew international attention first to the couple, then to the company they both worked for.

For Astronomer, a traditional crisis communication response might have involved a swift reprimand of the staff involved, followed by a sanitised statement expressing disappointment and reaffirming company values.

But in the social media age, such statements struggle to gain traction. The days of press conferences, pre-prepared statements and carefully worded question and answer sessions are long gone. A single tweet from an ordinary user can inflict damage standard public relations tactics may fail to contain.

In Astronomer’s case, the company issued a statement – then followed it with a video featuring Gwyneth Paltrow, the ex-wife of Coldplay frontman Chris Martin. This appeared to be an attempt to turn the massive surge in website traffic generated by the scandal into profit.

It was a clever response to a potentially damaging viral moment. And a good guide for businesses responding to scandals playing out online – something supported by our research examining crisis communication in the age of social media.

We found that while traditional responses remain advisable in the majority of scandals – they are still the safest option – a more targeted and nuanced approach can be worth the risk.

When a controversy does not involve product safety, breach brand values or harm core stakeholders, it can evolve into a moment of cultural relevance.

With the right tone, timing and distance, brands can co-opt virality to their advantage, transforming risk into recognition.

Tone matters

By analysing hundreds of thousands of tweets across several viral scandals between 2016 and 2022, we identified key ways social media scandals differ from their offline counterparts.

We looked at Pepsi’s poorly received video showing Kendall Jenner combating violence with a soda, as well as the sexual exploitation scandal involving Oxfam’s ex-head of operations in Haiti, among others.

The scandals we looked at involved differing subject matter, moral judgements and purpose. But every one went viral online when they happened.

We found the tone of the initial posts sharing the scandal significantly influences how far and fast it spreads. The same is true for a company’s response.

An aggressive or defensive tone from the organisation tends to trigger a stronger negative emotional response from the public. Typically, attempts to rebut a scandal gain little traction and rarely generate goodwill.

In our data, the only scenario where a defensive strategy worked was when a single individual, not the organisation, was at fault; and when the organisation was a not-for-profit with a strong track record of doing good, and was defended by a known influencer.

Leveraging controversy

In a media landscape dominated by social platforms, the line between crisis and opportunity has blurred. Increasingly, brands are attempting to capture public attention by leaning into controversy rather than hiding from it.

According to “situational crisis communication” theory, the safest way to rebuild trust is to acknowledge the scandal and apologise. Doing so with humour or mockery would once have been unthinkable.

But if irreverence is in keeping with the brand – and with the tone of the community sharing the content – then it may be appropriate.

The future of online scandal response remains uncertain. But what is clear is that scandals are harder than ever to hide. And that having a plan to address them is increasingly essential.

Tone must match the audience and an organisation’s response must align with its brand. But when the public is responding with humour and levity, a response that is stern, sombre or sterile is unlikely to land.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How should a company deal with a scandal like the Coldplay kiss cam? Here’s what we learned – https://theconversation.com/how-should-a-company-deal-with-a-scandal-like-the-coldplay-kiss-cam-heres-what-we-learned-262112

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

Anthony Albanese’s recent visit to Chengdu’s panda breeding base showed the enduring power of China’s panda diplomacy.

China has been sending pandas to other countries, sometimes for obviously political reasons, since the 1940s. The term “panda diplomacy” became widespread when China gifted two pandas to the United States on Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit.

In a new paper published in The Pacific Review, we explain the importance of panda diplomacy for the Chinese state. This importance persists during times of high political tension between China and other countries that host pandas, such as the United States. And it persists despite growing concerns about it in China.

No other animal can match the giant panda’s combination of universal appeal and national distinctiveness. The global popularity of pandas is a rare source of soft power for China, inspiring warm feelings and cultural acceptance.

But the flipside of cuteness is vulnerability. Pandas are seen as “national treasures” in China, and nationalist netizens are becoming upset about the practice of entrusting them to foreign powers. This is not the only case where Chinese popular nationalism has been at odds with the official nationalism of Chinese foreign policy.

In our article, we explore these issues by looking at the Chinese government’s response to the death of a panda in an American zoo. And we examine how the panda came to be such an emotionally charged and politically powerful symbol in the first place.

The Memphis Zoo controversy

In February 2023, the 25-year-old giant panda Lele died of heart disease in Memphis Zoo, shortly before he was due to return to China at the end of his 20-year loan. His female companion, Yaya, went back to China soon after.

Yaya had suffered from a skin condition for many years, and in 2020 American animal rights groups In Defense of Animals and Panda Voices began posting photos of the pandas appearing dirty and emaciated, with missing fur.

These photos generated rumours on Chinese social media that the pandas were being fed substandard bamboo and contaminated water. Much of the outrage and concern, expressed across millions of social media posts, was couched in nationalist terms.

One Weibo user commented:

our national treasure panda begging for food while kneeling is the same as us 1.4 billion Chinese people begging for food while kneeling!

Another complained:

pandas are claimed to be national treasures, but they are more like princesses in diplomatic marriages. In the face of national interests, whether a panda is doing well or dying is fundamentally unimportant.

Many called for the abolition of panda diplomacy.

The Chinese government responds

The Memphis Zoo controversy happened at one of the lowest points in the recent history of relations between the US and China.

Former president Joe Biden had just ordered the destruction of a Chinese surveillance balloon that had spent weeks in American airspace. Planned diplomatic talks had been cancelled, and both sides were accusing each other of infringing their sovereignty.

Under these circumstances, we might expect the Chinese government to exploit popular nationalist outrage directed at the United States. Instead, its response to the death and illness of the Memphis pandas was measured and conciliatory.

Following Lele’s death and just before Yaya’s return, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters
the pandas had received

good care from the zoo and great affection from the American people […]. China stands ready to continue to work with cooperation partners including the US to play our part in protecting endangered species.

Chinese zoological authorities confirmed Lele and Yaya’s conditions were normal for pandas “in the geriatric phase of their lives”. They declared that Memphis Zoo’s care of the pandas was “excellent”.

The hawkish state-owned newspaper Global Times ran editorials exonerating the Americans, even while acknowledging nationalist concerns. It would also exonerate a zoo in Thailand where a panda died a few months later. Other newspapers ran stories about the broader benefits to China of panda diplomacy.

How the panda became a symbol with many meanings

Both the online nationalist outrage and the calming state response to the Memphis controversy show the emotional weight and political importance of pandas in China.

How did they get to be so important? Historians have documented that pandas were virtually absent from Chinese art, literature and culture until the 20th century.

In historical terms, the panda is an unusual political symbol. Many national animal symbols are chosen for their ferocity, such as lions, eagles, and the dragons that long symbolised Imperial China.

Pandas, on the other hand, are loved for their roundness, innocence and clumsiness. If a dragon can be seen as a nation’s protective parent, a panda is more like its vulnerable child.

The fact that wild pandas are only found in China deepens this attachment, much as it does for Australians with koalas or New Zealanders with kiwis.

Our search for mentions of xiongmao (panda) in China’s People’s Daily newspaper shows a developing consciousness of pandas as a rare national animal from the 1950s onwards. This was accelerated in the 1970s by the popularity of pandas gifted to other countries, and the widespread commercialisation of panda images.

In 1983, the wild panda population in Sichuan was brought to the brink of starvation by the flowering and death of bamboo plants. This led to the mass mobilisation of the population to save the precious bears through donations and volunteering.

This incident enshrined the language of pandas as “national treasures”. It also elevated the panda as a global icon of wildlife conservation. Today, conservation research is China’s main public reason for sending pandas abroad.

The 21st century panda has many layers of accumulated symbolism. It is a symbol of China, a symbol of international friendship, a symbol of global environmental consciousness, and a symbol of the universal power of cute.

These symbolic layers have generated complex and contradictory political emotions around pandas in China.

In 2023 there was widespread speculation that pandas would not be returning to the United States and Australia because of their poor relationships with China. That speculation turned out to be premature.

But the question of whether “national treasure” pandas should be diplomats will remain a difficult one in a world defined by both environmental and human vulnerability.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How China’s pandas became its most valuable diplomats – and its vulnerable children – https://theconversation.com/how-chinas-pandas-became-its-most-valuable-diplomats-and-its-vulnerable-children-261845

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zoe Doubleday, Marine Ecologist and ARC Future Fellow, University of South Australia

Every year off the South Australian coast, giant Australian cuttlefish come together in huge numbers to breed. They put on a technicolour display of blue, purple, green, red and gold, changing hues as they mate and lay eggs.

This dynamic, dreamlike display takes place in the upper Spencer Gulf, near Whyalla. This short strip of coastline is the only place in the world to host this spectacular event.

But South Australia’s killer algal bloom is advancing towards this natural wonder. If the algae reach the breeding site in the coming weeks or months, they could wipe the cuttlefish population out.

Now, scientists may have a chance to get there first, take some eggs and raise an insurance population in captivity. This rescue operation would be a world first.

Why are the cuttlefish so vulnerable?

The giant Australian cuttlefish congregate to mate in waters off Whyalla every winter, in a gathering known as a “breeding aggregation”. The sanctuary area received National Heritage status in 2023.

The displays of movement and colour take place as abundant males vie for the attention of a female. Each year it attracts tourists, photographers and marine life enthusiasts. To witness it, all you need is a thick wetsuit, mask and snorkel.

Cuttlefish are cephalopods, alongside octopus and squid. While cephalopods are adaptable to environmental change, their generations don’t overlap. This means the parents die before the offspring are born, and so the population cannot be replenished by the parents if the offspring are wiped out.

By now, in upper Spencer Gulf, most adult cuttlefish will be breeding and naturally dying off, leaving the eggs behind. They will incubate for about three months, then hatch and swim away.

What if the algal bloom reaches the cuttlefish?

The harmful microalgal bloom of Karenia mikimotoi first appeared in March this year on two surf beaches outside Gulf St Vincent, about an hour south of Adelaide. It is thought to have been triggered by a persistent marine heatwave coupled with prolonged calm weather, and possibly excess nutrients from the 2022–23 Murray River flooding event.

It has since spread to many corners of South Australia, and has now reached the lower to middle reaches of Spencer Gulf. Preliminary modelling revealed last week shows the bloom could spread through Spencer Gulf, up to Whyalla and across to Port Pirie.

The disaster has already affected about 400 types of fish and marine animals. And we know this algal species can rapidly dispatch cephalopods, both large and small. In other parts of South Australia already affected by the algal bloom, dead octopus and cuttlefish have been extensively photographed and recorded.

If the latest batch of eggs dies in the algal bloom, their parents will no longer be around to rebreed and restore the population next year. This means the population could go extinct.

Could we lose a species?

More than 100 cuttlefish species exist worldwide. The giant Australian cuttlefish is found throughout southern Australia, from Moreton Bay in Queensland to Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia.

However, the breeding aggregation is genetically distinct from even its closest cuttlefish neighbours in southern Spencer Gulf, about 200 kilometres away. And genetic evidence suggests the upper Spencer Gulf population could well be its own species, although scientists haven’t confirmed this yet.

Regardless, this cuttlefish population is truly unique. It is the only population of giant Australian cuttlefish, and the only population of cuttlefish worldwide, to breed en masse in such a spectacular fashion.

That’s why saving it from the algal bloom is so important.

Can we save this natural wonder?

Today I’ll be meeting with fellow marine and cephalopod experts at an emergency meeting convened by the South Australian government. There, we will discuss the feasibility of collecting an insurance population of eggs from the cuttlefish population.

Timing is everything. Two or three months from now, the eggs could be too developed to collect safely, because moving can trigger premature hatching. Even later, the eggs will have hatched and the hatchlings will have swum away.

Ironically, while the mass gathering of cuttlefish makes the species vulnerable to a permanent wipeout, it also makes them easier to rescue.

Collecting, transporting and raising eggs in tanks is a relatively straightforward process at a smaller scale. It has been done successfully for research purposes in South Australia.

Raising hatchlings is harder and more labour intensive. Then there is the question of what to do with them once they hatch. But the three-month incubation period would buy us time.

Zoe Doubleday receives funding from the Australian Research Council and is affiliated with the University of South Australia. She is also a Director of the Southern Ocean Discovery Centre and Board Member of the Aquaculture Tenure Allocation Board (Government of South Australia).

– ref. The giant cuttlefish’s technicolour mating display is globally unique. The SA algal bloom could kill them all – https://theconversation.com/the-giant-cuttlefishs-technicolour-mating-display-is-globally-unique-the-sa-algal-bloom-could-kill-them-all-262108

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tamara Lewit, Honorary Fellow, School of Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of Melbourne

If you slipped back through time to taste a dish from the Roman Empire, you’d likely be sampling some fermented fish sauce.

Surviving Roman recipes add this to anything from barley porridge to a sweet custard made with pine nuts, olive oil, wine, honey and pepper.

Although it is often referred to as garum, the exact meaning of this term is surprisingly uncertain.

A fish sauce by any other name

Fish sauce is called garum, liquamen, or garon (in Greek) in various ancient Roman texts, including labels on containers.

It’s unclear whether these were different products or if the name changed over time.

According to one recent theory, garum may have been an expensive condiment, of short-lived popularity, made with the blood and organs of large fish.

Liquamen was a low-cost cooking sauce popular across the centuries and made by fermenting whole small, cheap fish.

The fish were layered with salt in covered vats or pots, and left in warm sun for two to three months to liquefy and ferment.

The method has been replicated by experimental archaeologists and even instagrammers.

Such umami-flavoured sauce would have transformed the cheap food of ordinary people in the Roman Empire. Most of the population had no access to the expensive spices, meats and sweet raisin wine on the tables of the wealthy.

In an edict listing prices issued by the Emperor Diocletian in 301 CE, second quality fish sauce is half the price of cheap honey.

Containers found in the humble houses and food shops of Pompeii show ordinary people had access to fish sauce.

An even longer history

Its origins go back thousands of years.

As was also the case for wine and olive oil, the roots of this dietary practice lay in earlier and originally eastern Mediterranean foodways.

Clay tablets from around 1700 BCE record a Babylonian recipe for poultry pie pastry flavoured with a fish sauce called siqqu.

Also used in Greek and Phoenician (middle eastern) cooking from at least the 5th century BCE, fermented fish sauce was adopted enthusiastically by the Romans and spread within the cultural melting pot that was the Roman Empire.

Roman conquest brought not only roads, baths and gladiators, but also diet and food customs to millions of peoples of varied ancestries and traditions across three continents.

Thriving industry and trade

In the Roman period, processing factories with huge vats were set up at the sites of the seasonal migrations of mackerel, sardines, anchovies and tuna around the Straits of Gibraltar and on Atlantic and Black Sea coasts.

Cuts of large fish were salted for transport while small fish were fermented for sauce.

The vats at these factories were called cetariae, and the name survives today as the town of Cetara in southern Italy near Pompeii, which still produces a fermented anchovy sauce called colatura di alici.

In a Roman shipwreck recently found off the island of Mallorca, skeletal remains from fish sauce were identified as anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus).

Recent DNA analysis of fish remains from an ancient production workshop in north-west coastal Spain shows the fish fermented there were sardines (Sardina pilchardus).

The tens of thousands of tiny fish bones found in vessels at a town workshop in Pompeii came from picarels (Spicara smaris), anchovies, and other fish, which were being fermented whole, heads and all, at the time of the volcanic eruption.

Chemical analysis also revealed traces of wine and Mediterranean herbs which may have been mixed with this sauce.

Spanish archaeologists replicated the chemistry by using anchovies from a Cádiz market with typical Roman ingredients of thyme, oregano, coriander, celery, sage, poppy seeds, fennel, mint and rosemary.

In spite of its reputation, the fermented sauce was not unpleasantly smelly, since the salt and processing neutralises odours.

Fish sauce was shipped to the city of Rome, northern Europe, the eastern Mediterranean, and to the armies in Croatia or northern Britian, supplied to soldiers as part of their rations.

A Roman ship wrecked in deep water off the coast of Sicily, explored by maritime archaeologists using remotely operated vehicles, was carrying Tunisian olive oil from the port of Carthage (now Tunis) to Rome.

On board was also a shipment of fish sauce which had travelled more than 2,000km from what is now Portugal.

A useful food

Fermenting fish was a way to make it long-lasting. Salting and fermentation were essential to preserving seasonal products in the ancient world, which lacked any effective means of sealing, freezing or refrigeration.

While there is evidence for malnutrition and dietary deficiencies such as scurvy among the population of the Roman Empire, fish sauce would have provided year-round protein, vitamin B12 and minerals such as iron and calcium (from the fish bones).

It was also used in medicine, especially as a laxative – including for horses.

After the end of the Roman Empire, it continued to be valued by medieval monks who were forbidden to eat red meat.

Roman sauce was almost identical to the fermented fish sauces that have been a staple of Asian cuisines for centuries.

For a hint of ancient Mediterranean flavours, try some with egg custard and honey.

Tamara Lewit does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Take fish, salt in vats, leave in sun for months: why ancient Romans loved fermented fish sauces like garum – https://theconversation.com/take-fish-salt-in-vats-leave-in-sun-for-months-why-ancient-romans-loved-fermented-fish-sauces-like-garum-260808

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Jane Archer, Senior Lecturer, Communication, Edith Cowan University

The Austalian government has confirmed video-sharing platform YouTube will be included in the upcoming social media ban for children aged 16 and under.

In recent days, the platform – owned by Google – attempted to persuade the Australian government to remain excluded from the upcoming ban. The restrictions are due to come into force in December this year.

Last month, eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant advised the government to remove the proposed exemption on YouTube from the upcoming ban. She cited YouTube’s “persuasive design” and algorithmic recommendations that keep young people scrolling.

YouTube has argued it is “not a social media service” and “offers benefit and value to younger Australians”.

Has the government made the right decision? We asked five experts if YouTube should be included – four out of five said no, but all expressed broader concerns about the ban. Here are their detailed answers.

Catherine Jane Archer is an Associate Investigator with the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child.

Catherine Page Jeffery has received funding from the Australian Research Council as well as the Australian government (under the Online Safety Grants Program).

Faith Gordon receives research funding from the Australian Research Council. She has previously received funding from Catch22, a youth charity.

Joanne Orlando has received research funding from the Australian government and NSW state government.

Tama Leaver receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a chief investigator in the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child.

– ref. Should YouTube be included in Australia’s social media ban for kids under 16? We asked 5 experts – https://theconversation.com/should-youtube-be-included-in-australias-social-media-ban-for-kids-under-16-we-asked-5-experts-262046

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edward C. Holmes, NHMRC Leadership Fellow and Professor of Virology, University of Sydney

In late June, the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO), a group of independent experts convened by the World Health Organization (WHO), published an assessment of the origins of COVID.

The report concluded that although we don’t know conclusively where the virus that caused the pandemic came from:

a zoonotic origin with spillover from animals to humans is currently considered the best supported hypothesis.

SAGO did not find scientific evidence to support “a deliberate manipulation of the virus in a laboratory and subsequent biosafety breach”.

This follows a series of reports and research papers since the early days of the pandemic that have reached similar conclusions: COVID most likely emerged from an infected animal at the Huanan market in Wuhan, and was not the result of a lab leak.

But conspiracy theories about COVID’s origins persist. And this is hampering our ability to prevent the next pandemic.

Attacks on our research

As experts in the emergence of viruses, we published a peer-reviewed paper in Nature Medicine in 2020 on the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID.

Like SAGO, we evaluated several hypotheses for how a novel coronavirus could have emerged in Wuhan in late 2019. We concluded the virus very likely emerged through a natural spillover from animals – a “zoonosis” – caused by the unregulated wildlife trade in China.

Since then, our paper has become a focal point of conspiracy theories and political attacks.

The idea SARS-CoV-2 might have originated in a laboratory is not, in itself, a conspiracy theory. Like many scientists, we considered that possibility seriously. And we still do, although evidence hasn’t emerged to support it.

But the public discourse around the origin of the pandemic has increasingly been shaped by political agendas and conspiratorial narratives. Some of this has targeted our work and vilified experts who have studied this question in a data-driven manner.

A common conspiracy theory claims senior officials pressured us to promote the “preferred” hypothesis of a natural origin, while silencing the possibility of a lab leak. Some conspiracy theories even propose we were rewarded with grant funding in exchange.

These narratives are false. They ignore, dismiss or misrepresent the extensive body of evidence on the origin of the pandemic. Instead, they rely on selective quoting from private discussions and a distorted portrayal of the scientific process and the motivations of scientists.

So what does the evidence tell us?

In the five years since our Nature Medicine paper, a substantial body of new evidence has emerged that has deepened our understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 most likely emerged through a natural spillover.

In early 2020, the case for a zoonotic origin was already compelling. Much-discussed features of the virus are found in related coronaviruses and carry signatures of natural evolution. The genome of SARS-CoV-2 showed no signs of laboratory manipulation.

The multi-billion-dollar wildlife trade and fur farming industry in China regularly moves high-risk animals, frequently infected with viruses, into dense urban centres.

It’s believed that SARS-CoV-1, the virus responsible for the SARS outbreak, emerged this way in 2002 in China’s Guangdong province.

Similarly, detailed analyses of epidemiological data show the earliest known COVID cases clustered around the Huanan live-animal market in Wuhan, in the Hubei province, in December 2019.

Multiple independent data sources, including early hospitalisations, excess pneumonia deaths, antibody studies and infections among health-care workers indicate COVID first spread in the district where the market is located.

In a 2022 study we and other experts showed that environmental samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 clustered in the section of the market where wildlife was sold.

In a 2024 follow-up study we demonstrated those same samples contained genetic material from susceptible animals – including raccoon dogs and civets – on cages, carts, and other surfaces used to hold and transport them.

This doesn’t prove infected animals were the source. But it’s precisely what we would expect if the market was where the virus first spilled over. And it’s contrary to what would be expected from a lab leak.

These and all other independent lines of evidence point to the Huanan market as the early epicentre of the COVID pandemic.

Read more:
The COVID lab leak theory is dead. Here’s how we know the virus came from a Wuhan market

Hindering preparedness for the next pandemic

Speculation and conspiracy theories around the origin of COVID have undermined trust in science. The false balance between lab leak and zoonotic origin theories assigned by some commentators has added fuel to the conspiracy fire.

This anti-science agenda, stemming in part from COVID origin conspiracy theories, is being used to help justify deep cuts to funding for biomedical research, public health and global aid. These areas are essential for pandemic preparedness.

In the United States this has meant major cuts to the US Centers for Disease Control and the National Institutes of Health, the closure of the US Agency for International Development, and withdrawal from the WHO.

Undermining trust in science and public health institutions also hinders the development and uptake of life-saving vaccines and other medical interventions. This leaves us more vulnerable to future pandemics.

The amplification of conspiracy theories about the origin of COVID has promoted a dangerously flawed understanding of pandemic risk. The idea that a researcher discovered or engineered a pandemic virus, accidentally infected themselves, and unknowingly sparked a global outbreak (in exactly the type of setting where natural spillovers are known to occur) defies logic. It also detracts from the significant risk posed by the wildlife trade.

In contrast, the evidence-based conclusion that the COVID pandemic most likely began with a virus jumping from animals to humans highlights the very real risk we increasingly face. This is how pandemics start, and it will happen again. But we’re dismantling our ability to stop it or prepare for it.

Edward C Holmes receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia). He has received consultancy fees from Pfizer Australia and Moderna, and has previously held honorary appointments (for which he has received no renumeration and performed no duties) at the China CDC in Beijing and the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center (Fudan University).

Andrew Rambaut receives funding from The Wellcome Trust and the Gates Foundation.

Kristian G. Andersen receives funding from the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Gates Foundation. He is on the Scientific Advisory Board of Invivyd, Inc. and has consulted on topics related to the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious diseases.

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of the author in their personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect the views, positions, or policies of Scripps Research, its leadership, faculty, staff, or its scientific collaborators or affiliates. Scripps Research does not endorse or take responsibility for any statements made in this piece.

Robert Garry has received funding from the National Institutes of Health, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, the Wellcome Trust Foundation, Gilead Sciences, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme. He is a co-founder of Zalgen Labs, a biotechnology company developing countermeasures for emerging viruses.

– ref. How conspiracy theories about COVID’s origins are hampering our ability to prevent the next pandemic – https://theconversation.com/how-conspiracy-theories-about-covids-origins-are-hampering-our-ability-to-prevent-the-next-pandemic-261475

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Heather McGinness, Senior Research Scientist, CSIRO

Every year, nomadic Australian waterbirds fly vast distances to find food and the perfect nesting site. They have to be good at finding not just water, but the right kind of water. But across much of Australia, that can be hard.

These species need long periods of flooding to produce the shallow, food-filled wetlands that support them and their chicks during breeding seasons. If the floodwaters fall too rapidly, the whole season can be threatened.

We don’t yet fully understand how these birds find these temporary wetlands. But by putting satellite trackers on species such as great egrets, plumed egrets, royal spoonbills and straw-necked ibis, we found the hidden flyways – bird highways – they use to search for wetlands in the Murray-Darling Basin.

Our research has also shown how important it is for these birds to be flexible to survive in a tough environment. Birds dependent on flooding can’t just do the same thing every year – they have to constantly change destinations.

Our research can help focus conservation and protection efforts to ensure the most important breeding and feeding sites have reliable access to water.

Chasing the floodwaters

As rivers swell and break their banks, floodwaters fill dry billabongs and cover low-lying areas. These shallow, temporary wetlands soon fill with insects and young fish. For inland waterbirds, these wetlands offer food and safe nesting places.

But egrets, spoonbills and ibis can take years to reach breeding age. If conditions aren’t right, they won’t breed at all.

Australia is known for its waterbirds, both inland and coastal. To protect local species and those migrating from far away, Australia has made international commitments to protect waterbirds and wetlands.

But when human demand for water clashes with the needs of waterbirds, the birds can lose out. If irrigation and farming uses up too much water, there may not be enough left for the wetlands these birds need.

The Murray-Darling Basin contains critically important wetlands for waterbirds and is also home to many farms, orchards and rice paddies. Ensuring there’s enough water in the system for healthy wetlands is already difficult, and will get harder as rainfall becomes less predictable under climate change.

To help with this problem, water managers periodically release environmental flows of water from dams back into the Murray-Darling system. Among other things, these flows are designed to give waterbirds the conditions they need to successfully breed.

Backpacks for birds

In 2016, we began placing tiny backpacks equipped with satellite trackers on waterbirds to find where they move to. Over the last decade, bird satellite tracking has come a long way. Many are solar powered, transmitting accurate data as often as we need it and over months to years. These days, trackers weigh just 1–3% of the weight of the bird.

We now have more than 50,000 days of data from more than 200 birds. We tracked some birds for more than seven years, and tracked some juveniles from their hatching site to their first breeding season.

The birds nest in noisy groups of thousands to tens of thousands when conditions are right. We chose them because they have similar habitat and food requirements as many other related waterbird species.

What our research shows is how vital it is to be flexible. Birds from each species often proved able to switch movement styles over time. One season, they might stay close to productive wetlands, while another might see them flying long distances.

Straw-necked ibis, royal spoonbills and egrets often switch between local movements all the way through to continental scale, though this can vary between species and individual birds. By contrast, the familiar white ibis tend to stay in one place as adults.

Individual waterbirds can use favourable winds to travel long distances. We recorded some birds flying at speeds up to 135 kmh, with daily records of 700 km and annual totals of over 15,000 km. Some flew as high as 2,800 metres.

In 2023, we tracked a newly fledged plumed egret flying from the Macquarie Marshes in northern New South Wales to Papua New Guinea. It was the first time the species has been tracked doing this in detail and it was remarkable to watch the egret cross the ocean, flying 38 hours non-stop from coast to coast.

The data provide clear evidence of common movement routes used by ibis, spoonbills and egrets. We named the largest of these the Murray-Darling Basin Flyway, as it connects important breeding sites from south-west Victoria all the way to southern Queensland. These include the Barmah-Millewa Forest on the Murray River, Gayini and Yanga on the Murrumbidgee River, Lake Cowal, the Macquarie Marshes, the Narran Lakes and the Gwydir Wetlands.

In an Australian first, we also tracked nesting birds. This shows us where and when adults get food for their chicks, and when and how often they attend the nest. We found straw-necked ibis often travel much further to find food when nesting than royal spoonbills or white ibis.

Tracking what’s lacking

Tracking waterbirds has given us new insight into how cleverly these birds deal with Australia’s extreme conditions.

But while these birds have been able to survive Australia’s seesawing climate, it’s an open question whether they can hold on as climate change makes water even less predictable – and as human demands increase.

Heather McGinness receives funding from the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority.

Luke Lloyd-Jones receives funding from the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority.

Micha V Jackson receives funding from the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority.

– ref. We used tiny sensors in backpacks to discover the extraordinary ways birds migrate to find water – https://theconversation.com/we-used-tiny-sensors-in-backpacks-to-discover-the-extraordinary-ways-birds-migrate-to-find-water-259988

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marianne Fenech, Professor, Early Childhood Governance, University of Sydney

Federal parliament is debating the Albanese government’s bill to strip funding from childcare centres if they are unsafe.

It follows a string of recent reports and allegations of significant safety and abuse problems in the early learning sector.

The bill is expected to pass parliament with the support of the Coalition this week. It represents a belated but promising step by linking quality and safety to federal government funding.

But it also falls short in a number of key ways. Here’s why we cannot rely on it to boost safety in our childcare centres.

Read more:
Childcare centres will have funding stripped if they’re not ‘up to scratch’. Is this enough?

What’s in the bill?

The bill adds “quality and safety” to the factors the federal Department of Education considers when deciding to approve an early childhood service for the Child Care Subsidy.

The subsidy funds about 70% of the average centre’s operations.

Existing services could lose this subsidy if they do not provide “high quality and safe care”. They may be unable to open new services, or face other compliance actions.

The bill expands the department’s existing powers to publicise actions taken against providers, including if they are not approved to open another service. It will also be easier for departmental officers to do unannounced visits, although these will focus on childcare subsidy fraud, not service quality.

But the bill is reactive

The bill refers to a provider’s record of “high quality education and care” but action is triggered when things going wrong. The focus is on services that are non-compliant, have a “poor track record” or are “repeatedly not meeting the minimum standard,” according to national childcare quality ratings.

In other words, when children have already been subjected to poor quality education and care, or worse.

So we need to change our approach

This is why we need to put the emphasis on boosting overall quality in childcare, so things don’t go wrong in the first place.

There are seven components of the national quality standards for early learning and care. They are meant to be considered as a package deal and reinforce each other.

Yes, one of the components (or areas) is “children’s health and safety”. But putting the spotlight on the other quality areas – including staffing arrangements, service management and the physical and educational environment – will more effectively support child safety.

If all these components are working properly, that’s a good start, but more needs to be done.

Can we rely on the existing ratings?

At the moment, services are given one of four ratings against the national standards. These range from “exceeding” to “meeting”, “working towards” and “significant improvement required”.

But the rating system itself is a major weak link. As a 2023 Productivity Commission report noted, there are

widespread concerns over the accuracy, consistency and efficiency of the assessment and ratings process […] and the infrequency of assessment and ratings visits.

For example, a service may be rated as “exceeding” but not have had an assessment for many years and now be operated by a different provider. So regulators at both state and federal levels need to be resourced to do more frequent and comprehensive assessments of all quality areas.

Regulators also need to be empowered to defund providers whose services don’t meet robust quality thresholds. There is a difference between having powers and actually using them. Regulators need resources and, in the face of supply pressures, institutional will. And governments need contingency plans, including being prepared to take over failing services.

There is another way

The bill covers most early education and care services, including long daycare (what most people would know as a childcare centre) and family daycare, and after school care.

But it does not include preschools or kindergartens (“kinders”), which specifically cater for children aged three to five, before they go to school. Preschools are not eligible for the childcare subsidy under family assistance laws.

The exclusion of preschools from the bill is not necessarily a problem, because preschools tend to have much higher quality ratings than long daycare centres. In fact, they provide a model for how the rest of the early childhood sector could operate.

As our analysis in the chart below shows, more than half all preschools exceed quality standards. Only 1% don’t meet them. Governance is a key factor. Almost all preschool services are operated by government or not-for-profit providers.

Not-for-profit and public long day care centres also come up a strong second, with more than a third rated (35%) as “exceeding” standards and only 4% “working towards”.

For-profit providers perform worst. Only 14% are rated as “exceeding” and one in eleven (9%) don’t meet the standards. And we don’t know about another 9% that haven’t been rated. Yet they operate about 70% of long daycare centres in Australia.

What can governments do?

Education ministers will meet next month to talk about child safety. While there are a host of measures on the table, including child safety training for workers, they need to look at the bigger picture.

Professional pay and working conditions are needed to attract and keep the best teachers and educators. Early childhood staff recently received a 15% pay rise over two years. But it comes to an end in December and came off a very low base – early childhood educators are still low-paid workers.

A simple but crucial thing governments can do immediately is talk about early childhood teachers and educators as professionals. They are not babysitters. In a high-profile interview with 7.30 last week, Education Minister Jason Clare twice referred to early childhood educators as people who “look after” kids.

We also need improved staff-to-child ratios, especially for babies and toddlers. Ratios vary by state, but at the moment there must be one educator for every four babies aged up to two years. This is below national recommended standards.

This will ease work demands and stress, ensure better supervision, and support high quality.

Marianne Fenech receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Gabrielle Meagher is a member of the Work + Family Policy Roundtable.

– ref. The new childcare bill relies on something going wrong to keep kids ‘safe’. Here’s what else we should do – https://theconversation.com/the-new-childcare-bill-relies-on-something-going-wrong-to-keep-kids-safe-heres-what-else-we-should-do-261851

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Prudence Flowers, Senior Lecturer in US History, College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Flinders University

1965, a trending new song by TikTok sensation and country music rebel Jessie Murph, is prompting heated online conversation about the status of women in the United States.

A retro sound and kitschy 1960s look mark the song and its confusingly pornographic (and age-restricted) music video. 1965 is muddled in its posturing, at turns sarcastic yet simultaneously conveying a wistfulness about the “simpler nature” of heterosexual romance in the 1960s.

Amid the nods to Lana Del Rey and Amy Winehouse, perhaps the most striking aspect is Murph’s visual homage to Priscilla Presley, who began dating Elvis in 1959 when she was 14 years old.

1965’s chorus has attracted particular controversy. Murph croons, in a lilting doo-wop style, about her willingness to “give up a few rights” for a man’s love and affection.

In the US, where hard-won rights are currently under attack, 1965’s seeming fetishisation of submission and female powerlessness has angered many listeners. Murph has claimed the song is “satire” – but a look at the legal and social status of American women in 1965 highlights how misplaced this attempt at irony is.

Women and the law in the US

In 1963 and 1964, federal laws prohibited discrimination in relation to pay or civil rights. But the idea that women might participate fully and equally in society was largely seen as a joke.

Federal and state governments, along with the private sector, had to be compelled through feminist action to take these rights seriously.

Into the 1970s, sex discrimination in education and housing was legal. So was employment discrimination against pregnant women and women with young children.

Job advertisements were often sex segregated. Women only gained the right to have a credit card or mortgage in their own name in 1974.

Sex, intimacy, relationships

In the 1960s, reproductive rights and bodily autonomy were in their infancy.

In 1965, married couples gained the right to contraception. This right was extended to unmarried people in 1972.

Although a tiny number of states began repealing abortion laws in the late 1960s, death from illegal and unsafe abortions were a common occurrence until the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision of 1973.

Between World War II and 1973, approximately 4 million pregnant unmarried mothers placed their children for adoption, many under duress, in a period now called the baby scoop era.

Into the 1970s, Black, Latina and Indigenous women were coercively sterilised, often through eugenics programs.

Divorce was only possible if one spouse could persuade a judge the other had committed cruelty, adultery or desertion. In 1969, California became the first state to legalise no-fault divorce.

Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, feminists demanded that police and the courts stop treating domestic violence as a private matter. Only in 1993 was marital rape considered a crime in all state sexual offence codes.

Even today, the overwhelming majority of perpetrators who commit rape or sexual assault will not face trial.

Race and sexuality

Although women’s suffrage was achieved in 1920, African Americans, Latinos and Native Americans were prevented from voting in many states by literacy tests, poll taxes and violence.

In 1965, after decades of civil rights struggle, federal legislation prohibited racial discrimination in voting, expanding to protect non-English speaking citizens in 1975.

Until 1973, homosexuality was considered a sociopathic personality disorder that might necessitate psychiatric institutionalisation.

In 2003, laws criminalising consensual same-sex activity were found unconstitutional. In 2015, same-sex marriage became legal nationwide.

There are still no federal laws that protect LGBTQI+ people against discrimination in education, housing, employment or public accommodations.

The personal is political

Faced with immediate backlash, Murph has claimed the song is obviously satirical, asking “r yall stupid”.

To Teen Vogue she insisted “On the record, I love having rights […] bodily rights specifically.”

But for satire to work, it requires shared sets of knowledge, values and assumptions. The ironic posturing in 1965 is too muddled – lyrically and sonically – to be effective. Instead, for many it looks and sounds like just another celebration of restrictive gender politics.

Online, many have compared Murph to a “tradwife”, the increasingly popular genre of social media influencer who make content romanticising homemaking, large families and submission to husbands.

Tradwives are primarily white and offer a fantasy version of historical domesticity, often cosplaying a 1950s aesthetic. Some tradwives are overtly far right in their politics, others explicitly reject feminism and the “lie” of equality.

Read more:
Far-right ‘tradwives’ see feminism as evil. Their lifestyles push back against ‘the lie of equality’

This vision of family and gender is echoed in contemporary Christian Nationalist and MAGA discourse.

Project 2025, the 900-page conservative wish list for the Trump 2.0 administration, called for government to “replace ‘woke’ nonsense with a healthy vision” of family and sexuality, framed as heterosexual and patriarchal.

The culture wars waged by Donald Trump and Republicans directly target rights relating to gender and sexuality.

Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, 19 states now ban or restrict abortion.

Trans rights are under sustained and devastating attack.

Prominent conservative voices call for an end to no-fault divorce laws and same-sex marriage.
Federal Republicans have opposed efforts to codify the right to contraception and in vitro fertilisation (IVF).

The history of social movement activism is a history of struggle. Feminists, women of colour and LGBTQI+ movements fought against considerable resistance to establish rights that are now too often taken for granted.

In this moment of conservative backlash, it is vital that we interrogate any move that frames rights as accessories in a costume rather than foundational to equality.

Prudence Flowers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Women’s rights in the US are in real danger of going back to 1965 – so Jessie Murph’s new song is no laughing matter – https://theconversation.com/womens-rights-in-the-us-are-in-real-danger-of-going-back-to-1965-so-jessie-murphs-new-song-is-no-laughing-matter-261862

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Treasa Dunworth, Professor of Law, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Is the tide turning over the crisis in Gaza? International pressure and condemnation of Israel’s actions has been increasing, with news and images of malnourished and starving Palestinians now hard to avoid.

This week, US President Donald Trump has acknowledged there is “real starvation” happening, and instructed Israel to allow “every ounce of food” into Gaza.

And last week, the foreign ministers of 28 states – including New Zealand – issued a strongly worded Joint Statement on Humanitarian Situation in Gaza and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, calling for an “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” and condemning Israel’s denial of essential humanitarian assistance.

The statement marked an important shift in the international community’s response. Countries in the Global South have been challenging Israel’s actions since the start of the conflict, notably South Africa’s genocide case before the International Court of Justice.

But this is the first time a grouping of western and other liberal democracies has issued such a strongly worded condemnation of Israel’s actions. (France, another signatory, has also now said it will recognise a Palestinian state at the United Nations.)

Most importantly, the signatories conclude the statement by saying they “are prepared to take further action to support an immediate ceasefire and a political pathway to security and peace for Israelis, Palestinians and the entire region”.

5 options for further action

So far, however, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown little interest in halting his devastating military campaign. If the situation continues to worsen, the question becomes: what would “further action” look like for New Zealand? Five options stand out.

1. Stop trade with Israel

Despite the joint declaration’s strong language, every signatory continues to trade with Israel. Companies profiting from activities in the occupied Palestinian territories have been specifically criticised by the United Nations Special Rapporteur.

The requisite legislation could be put in place by parliament agreeing to support Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick’s private members bill to “sanction unlawful occupation of Palestine”. That bill draws on the existing Russia Sanctions Act passed in 2022 over the Ukraine war.

2. Change immigration rules

New Zealand has already created a special visa category for Ukrainians and their families. The same could be done for Palestinians on the basis of family reunification.

3. Order an intelligence inquiry

The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security can exercise his powers under the Intelligence and Security Act 2017 to open an inquiry into direct or indirect intelligence sharing with Israel, specifically through the Five Eyes network.

Four of the five members of Five Eyes are signatories to the joint statement, but there is currently no way of knowing whether New Zealand’s contribution is aiding Israel’s military actions. Last year, a group of lawyers (of which I was one) called for such an inquiry to shed light on the situation, but the request was denied.

4. Withdraw from Operation Prosperity Guardian

The government could withdraw from the US-led multinational coalition formed to counter Houthi attacks on maritime transport in the Red Sea.

While the Yemeni rebel attacks on commercial shipping are illegal, they are also linked to the continuing international failure to stop the Gaza conflict. In this broader context, membership of the coalition can be seen as implicit support of Israel’s actions.

5. Refer Netanyahu to the International Criminal Court

Using starvation as a method of warfare is recognised as a war crime. Referring the Israeli prime minister to the International Criminal Court for prosecution would almost certainly attract the wrath of Israel and the US, which imposed sanctions on the court earlier this year.

However, all signatories to the joint statement are members of the court, so a collective referral may provide some diplomatic cover. But there is no legal reason why New Zealand cannot refer the case on its own.

A rules-based order

All of these five possible actions are within New Zealand’s sovereign rights to undertake, and fit within the country’s support for a rules-based international order.

The common belief that New Zealand is too small and relatively powerless to influence global events such as the disaster in Gaza is arguably self-fulfilling and an excuse for inaction.

But New Zealand’s nuclear-free policy stands as an example of how small nations can create change, with the political will to do so.

Signing the joint statement on Gaza and the Occupied Palestinian Territories opened the door to “further action”. If and when such action is triggered, New Zealand’s options are not insignificant.

Treasa Dunworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ is prepared to take ‘further action’ over the Gaza crisis – here are 5 options – https://theconversation.com/nz-is-prepared-to-take-further-action-over-the-gaza-crisis-here-are-5-options-262023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoff Isaac, Research Fellow, Design, Architecture and Building, University of Technology Sydney

What springs to mind when you’re asked to think of plastic chairs? Do you picture the ubiquitous lightweight, stackable polypropylene chair sold cheaply in hardware stores worldwide?

Or perhaps you picture something more glamorous, such as Shiro Kuramata’s Miss Blanche (1988). This limited-edition artwork, featuring imitation roses suspended in acrylic resin, now sells for more than US$500,000 at auction.

I research industrial design, exploring the symbiotic relationship between technology, commercial design and sustainability. The 80-year history of the plastic chair was the focus of my PhD.

This humble, ubiquitous object offers unique insights into society’s shifting attitudes to plastic, and the changes to come.

An 80-year history

The story of the plastic chair began in the United States in the 1930s, when petrochemical manufacturers DuPont and Röhm & Haas started mass-producing acrylic glass.

The material, available in rods and sheets, enabled industrial designers to produce a wide range of consumer products using traditional manufacturing techniques.

Widespread shortages of traditional materials during World War II drove further development of plastics.

After the war, designers and manufacturers quickly embraced plastics. They were seen as the foundation of a new, plentiful future, allowing the masses to access products previously reserved for the elite. Many household items such as televisions, toys and upholstery became cheaper, thanks to plastics.

Fibreglass manufacturing advanced during WWII to support the US Navy. This involves weaving strands of glass into a loose mat, which is then placed into a mould. Polyester resin is poured in to bind the fibres together before it hardens into a solid shape. Fibreglass is strong, lightweight, corrosion-resistant and can be moulded into complex shapes.

The first fibreglass chair designs were Charles and Ray Eames’ Plastic Armchair and Eero Saarinen’s Tulip Chair. Then the Space Age (1957–69) inspired enthusiastic experiments with technicolor-saturated glossy surfaces and futuristic curved shapes, all made possible by fibreglass.

Designers could handcraft prototypes, perfecting comfort and form. Many designs from this era are still in production and often feature in science fiction films.

A shift in public sentiment

Looking back at Earth from space was a turning point for humanity. The famous Earthrise photo captured the precarious nature of our existence and dependence on finite resources, such as fossil fuels. Oil was used to make most plastic at that time.

In the 1970s, the price of oil shot up tenfold when Arab nations banned petroleum exports and cut oil production during the Arab–Iraeli War. The Iraq–Iran war followed. In 1981, oil reached US$31 per barrel. Suddenly, plastics were expensive.

Early plastics also had drawbacks. Colours faded and surfaces scratched, eroding consumer confidence. Disillusioned consumers began to favour traditional materials such as metal and timber. Few noteworthy plastic chair designs appeared during the next two decades.

In response, the plastics industry changed tactics. If consumers favoured wooden furniture, then woodchips and veneer – held together by polymer adhesives and varnished with polyurethane – offered a cost-effective solution. Plastics were simply camouflaged within an ever-increasing range of products.

As the environmental impacts of plastics became evident, the industry recognised it had an image problem and launched a major public relations effort around recycling. It worked. By the end of the century, plastics were fashionable again.

Recycling eases guilt

From the late 1990s, leading designers enthusiastically embraced injection moulding. This was much cheaper and faster than labour-intensive fibreglass.

Philippe Starck’s LaMarie for Kartell launched a new trend for translucent chairs. Karim Rashid launched the affordable Oh Chair and Jasper Morrison introduced air injection moulding to the industry with the Air Chair.

The revival was brief. The limitations of mechanical recycling gradually became more widely understood. Of the 8.3 billion tonnes of plastic produced by 2020, just 9% had been recycled, or more accurately “downcycled” such as by turning PET bottles into polyester for clothing.

Ocean pollution became a focus when it was shown that by 2050, there will be more plastic than fish in our seas. Alarm further intensified over the impact of chemical additives used in plastics and their effects on human health and the ability to reproduce.

In response, designers and manufactures are now exploring plastics made at least partly from recycled plastics or renewable organic resources such as plants, algae or even carbon dioxide (bioplastics).

My study of 60 such chairs identified the Bell Chair as the best of the bunch. Made from just 2.8kg of plastic waste, the design minimises the amount of energy required to make and transport the chair.

These chairs come off the automated production line stacked 12-high for efficient transport. The manufacturer Magis also claims Bell Chairs can be recycled at end-of-life. But the lack of a resin identification code mark, and the inclusion of fibreglass, make it unlikely the product will actually be recycled.

I thought my study would identify chairs made from bioplastics as delivering superior environmental outcomes. However, designers working with these materials were forced to compensate for inferior material strength by bulking up their designs, or mixing bio-based material with traditional plastics.

Bulky designs demand higher energy consumption during manufacture and transport, while hybridised materials are problematic as they cannot be recycled and are not biodegradable.

The chair of the future

Bans on single-use plastics, and measures to reduce plastic packaging and increase recycled content in packaging and products, are beginning to take effect. Manufacturers are also experimenting with renewable plastics in consumer goods.

But to achieve global emissions-reduction targets, the transition from virgin fossil-based plastics to renewable plastics must accelerate. Government intervention will be crucial where voluntary industry agreements are failing, both at home and abroad.

It’s likely the plastic chair of the future will be made entirely from renewable organic resources. Creating a more circular plastics economy is not only possible, it’s imperative.

Read more:
Curious Kids: why can some plastics be recycled but others can’t?

Geoff Isaac does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. From futuristic design icon to environmental villain – the 80-year history of the plastic chair – https://theconversation.com/from-futuristic-design-icon-to-environmental-villain-the-80-year-history-of-the-plastic-chair-257470

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amra Lee, PhD candidate in Protection of Civilians, Australian National University

Israel partially lifted its aid blockade of Gaza this week in response to intensifying international pressure over the man-made famine in the devastated coastal strip.

The United Arab Emirates and Jordan airdropped 25 tonnes of food and humanitarian supplies on Sunday. Israel has further announced daily pauses in its military strikes on Gaza and the opening of humanitarian corridors to facilitate UN aid deliveries.

Israel reports it has permitted 70 trucks per day into the strip since May 19. This is well below the 500–600 trucks required per day, according to the United Nations.

The UN emergency relief chief, Tom Fletcher, has characterised the next few days as “make or break” for humanitarian agencies trying to reach more than two million Gazans facing “famine-like conditions”.

A third of Gazans have gone without food for several days and 90,000 women and children now require urgent care for acute malnutrition. Local health authorities have reported 147 deaths from starvation so far, 80% of whom are children.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed – without any evidence – “there is no starvation in Gaza”. This claim has been rejected by world leaders, including Netanyahu ally US President Donald Trump.

Famine expert Alex de Waal has called the famine in Gaza without precedent:

[…] there’s no case of such minutely engineered, closely monitored, precisely designed mass starvation of a population as is happening in Gaza today.

While the UN has welcomed the partial lifting of the blockade, the current aid being allowed into Gaza will not be enough to avert a wider catastrophe, due to the severity and depth of hunger in Gaza and the health needs of the people.

According to the UN World Food Programme, which has enough food stockpiled to feed all of Gaza for three months, only one thing will work:

An agreed ceasefire is the only way to reach everyone.

Airdrops a ‘distraction and a smokescreen’

Air-dropping food supplies is considered a last resort due to the undignified and unsafe manner in which the aid is delivered.

The UN has already reported civilians being injured when packages have fallen on tents.

The Global Protection Cluster, a network of non-governmental organisations and UN agencies, shared a story from a mother in Al Karama, east of Gaza City, whose home was hit by an airdropped pallet, causing the roof to collapse:

Immediately following the impact, a group of people armed with knives rushed towards the house, while the mother locked herself and her children in the remaining room to protect her family. They did not receive any assistance and are fearful for their safety.

Air-dropped pallets of food are also inefficient compared with what can be delivered by road.

One truck can carry up to 20 tonnes of supplies. Trucks can also reach Gaza quickly if they are allowed to cross at the scale required. Aid agencies have repeatedly said they have the necessary aid and personnel sitting just one hour away at the border.

Given how ineffective the air drops have been – and will continue to be – the head of the UN Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine has called them a “distraction” and a “smokescreen”.

Malnourished women and children need specialised care

De Waal has also made clear how starvation differs from other war crimes – it takes weeks of denying aid for starvation to take hold.

For the 90,000 acutely malnourished women and children who require specialised and supplementary feeding, in addition to medical care, the type of food being air-dropped into Gaza will not help them. Malnourished children require nutritional screening and access to fortified pastes and baby food.

Gaza’s decimated health system is also not able to treat severely malnourished women and children, who are at risk of “refeeding syndrome” when they are provided with nutrients again. This can trigger a fatal metabolic response.

Gaza will take generations to heal from the long-term impacts of mass starvation. Malnourished children suffer lifelong cognitive and physical effects that can then be passed on to future generations.

What needs to happen now

The UN has characterised the limited reopening of aid deliveries to Gaza as a potential “lifeline”, if it’s upheld and expanded.

According to Ciaran Donnelly from the International Rescue Committee, what’s needed is “tragically simple”: Israel must fully open the Gaza borders to allow aid and humanitarian personnel to flood in.

Israel must also guarantee safe conditions for the dignified distribution of aid that reaches everyone, including women, children, the elderly and people with disabilities. The level of hunger and insecurity mean these groups are at high risk of exclusion.

The people of Gaza have the world’s attention – for now. They have endured increasingly dehumanising conditions – including the risk of being shot trying to access aid – under the cover of war for more than 21 months.

Two leading Israeli human rights organisations have just publicly called Israel’s war on Gaza “a genocide”. This builds on mounting evidence compiled by the UN and other experts that supports the same conclusion, triggering the duty under international law for all states to act to prevent genocide.

These obligations require more than words – states must exercise their full diplomatic leverage to pressure Israel to let aid in at the scale required to avert famine. States must also pressure Israel to extend its military pauses into the only durable solution – a permanent ceasefire.

Amra Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Air-dropping food into Gaza is a ‘smokescreen’ – this is what must be done to prevent mass starvation – https://theconversation.com/air-dropping-food-into-gaza-is-a-smokescreen-this-is-what-must-be-done-to-prevent-mass-starvation-262053

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dennis Wesselbaum, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Otago

It is late July, and New Zealand is slowly receiving economic data from the June quarter. Inflation has hit a 12-month high, for example, confirming what many already suspected. But the country is still nearly two months away from getting figures on economic activity – namely, gross domestic product (GDP).

Official statistics such as GDP and inflation have long been delayed, offering a picture of how the economy was, rather than how it is. Stats NZ, for instance, released GDP data for the December 2024 quarter in March 2025 – a lag of around three months. As a result, economic decisions and public debate are often based on out-of-date information.

One example from last year illustrates how such delays can distort policy.

In August 2024, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates a year earlier than markets had expected, despite considering further hikes just months before. With no monthly inflation or GDP data, the Reserve Bank had to rely on private-sector indicators while waiting for official figures, which later confirmed that inflation was indeed easing.

This is where “nowcasts” prove useful.

Launched in April, the Reserve Bank’s “nowcasting” tool – Kiwi-GDP – publishes weekly estimates of economic activity. Using advanced statistical models to estimate current GDP growth, it aims to bridge the gap between real-time developments and the lagging arrival of official statistics.

As of mid-July 2025, Kiwi-GDP suggests there may be a decline in economic activity. The model estimated negative GDP growth, with figures from July 18 indicating a decline of 0.29%.

This marks a sharp reversal from earlier estimates of around 0.8%, and even from late June, when the model still pointed to modest positive growth.

The downward revision appears to be driven primarily by weakness in retail and consumption data, as well as survey-based indicators. These early signals suggest that economic momentum may be fading, even before the official GDP data for the June quarter are released.

But while the tool offers insight, it is not without pitfalls. Politicians and economists must be cautious in interpreting its weekly updates.

The promise and perils of ‘nowcasting’

Tools such as Kiwi-GDP allow policymakers and analysts to synthesise multiple data sources and form an informed view of current conditions.

But not all indicators are equal. Some are timely; others are noisy or unreliable. A good “nowcast” weighs data based on its quality and predictive value.

The shift in outlook for the New Zealand economy illustrates both the strength and the limitation of these tools: it reacts quickly to new information, but is also prone to significant revision.

This volatility poses challenges for policymakers. When monetary policy decisions were made in May, the prevailing “nowcast” pointed to 0.5% growth for the June quarter. If that projection influenced decision-making, the resulting policy would be misaligned with economic reality.

Although “nowcasting” improves real-time analysis, its very responsiveness exposes central banks to risk.

Limitations of Kiwi-GDP

There are other New Zealand specific concerns. Kiwi-GDP relies on a single model, which comes with inherent limitations. Even in stable conditions, the actual economic process is likely more complex than any model – however flexible – can capture.

As the economy evolves, the best models shift with it. These shifts are difficult to detect from past performance alone. Relying on one model increases the risk of blind spots and instability.

A better approach would combine forecasts from multiple models. This reduces the impact of individual assumptions and helps smooth out measurement errors.

Another drawback is that Kiwi-GDP produces point estimates – a single number for GDP growth – rather than a range of possible outcomes. This assumes the cost of forecast errors are equally likely to be positive or negative, when in fact they are not.

Overestimating growth could lead to premature rate hikes and an unnecessary slowdown; underestimating it might result in overly loose policy and rising inflation. For policymakers, the consequences of being wrong vary depending on the direction of the error.

To improve decision-making, Kiwi-GDP should make uncertainty more explicit. Presenting a range of outcomes or scenarios would help ensure that risks are properly accounted for. Without such transparency, there is a danger that decisions are made with a false sense of confidence.

Real-time insight

“Nowcasting” helps bridge the gap between decision-making deadlines and the delayed publication of official data. By leveraging real-time indicators, it offers a clearer picture of where the economy stands.

Forecasting the future remains important – but understanding the present is just as crucial. Without an accurate sense of the current state of the economy, informed policymaking becomes much harder.

Dennis Wesselbaum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How real-time data can lead to better decisions on everything from NZ’s interest rates to business investment – https://theconversation.com/how-real-time-data-can-lead-to-better-decisions-on-everything-from-nzs-interest-rates-to-business-investment-261378

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris F. Wright, Professor of Work and Labour Market Policy, University of Sydney

The Albanese government is pushing ahead with new legislation to protect penalty rates and overtime for about 2.6 million workers under the award system. Those workers are more likely to be female, younger and work casual or part-time.

Penalty rates are higher rates of pay to compensate for working overtime or at unsociable hours, such as weekends, late nights or public holidays.

Australia is not unique in having penalty rates. Other countries, especially in Europe, have similar arrangements. It’s less common in the United States and the United Kingdom.

But while penalty rates and overtime may be good for workers, they’re bad for business – right?

Surprisingly, it’s not that simple. Past experience in Australia and overseas shows that when workers’ pay or conditions get worse, it can end up creating headaches for business – especially those facing worker shortages.

What the government’s proposing

The Albanese government’s Protecting Penalty and Overtime Rates bill would enshrine a new “high-level principle” into the Fair Work Act.

It’s designed to override cases currently before Australia’s workplace relations regulator, the Fair Work Commission, where industry is pushing for greater flexibility on penalty rates and overtime.

If passed, the bill would stop the Fair Work Commission from allowing penalty or overtime rates to be “rolled up” into a single rate of pay “where it leaves any individual employee worse off”.

The Coalition says more consultation with small business is needed. But there are signs the Greens could support the bill, which would be enough for parliament to pass it.

The industries most affected by Labor’s proposed change include retail, hospitality, care and clerical work, where many workers are “award reliant”, or who often work at irregular or unsociable hours.

The government argues the bill does not prevent awards from being made more flexible for employers – provided workers are not financially disadvantaged.

Unions support Labor’s bill. They say workers on awards are typically in lower-paid roles, where penalty rates form a significant part of their take-home pay.

Why business is concerned

Earlier this year, the Australian Retailers Association and employers including Woolworths, Coles, Bunnings and Kmart proposed letting retail managers opt in for a salary pay rise of up to 35%, while trading off penalty rates, overtime and rest breaks.

While that proposal relates to managerial staff, some are concerned it could set a precedent for those arrangements to be extended to non-managerial workers. (The retailers’ association says “it never sought to remove penalty rates from the award” for those not wanting to opt in.)

This followed employers seeking similar changes to banking and clerical awards, affecting around 2 million workers.

The Australian Industry Group says Labor’s new bill is a “union thought bubble that will kill jobs” and

Labor should trust the independent umpire [the Fair Work Commission […]] to set fair terms for awards, not simply change the rules to ensure unions get their way.

Others warn it denies employees choice about how they’re paid, and will undermine workplace productivity – just when the government is trying to improve it.

Does cutting penalty rates create jobs?

For decades, employer groups have pushed for more flexibility to cut penalty rates, while unions have fought to keep them.

What can we learn from those past clashes?

We don’t have to look back far. In 2017, the Fair Work Commission decided to reduce Sunday and public holiday penalty rates for more than 700,000 workers covered by the retail, hospitality, fast food and pharmacy awards.

In that case, the Fair Work Commission agreed with employer groups that these reductions would create more jobs.

However, that conclusion did not bear fruit.

In 2019, researchers Martin O’Brien and Ray Markey analysed employment data and did a survey (with union funding) of more than 1,800 employees and 200 owner-managers in retail and hospitality. Their analysis found no evidence of jobs being created by the 2017 penalty rates reduction.

A 2017 report from the Australian Institute’s Centre for Future Work estimated the additional income generated by penalty rates adds $14 billion each year to the economy, which boosts aggregate demand. So when penalty rates are cut, there can also be consequences for the wider economy.

And arrangements exchanging penalty rates for higher base salaries have often led employees to be worse off overall – in some cases, substantially so.

When workers do better, business often does too

While workers are most likely to suffer when penalty rates are cut, there may also be negative consequences for employers.

The hospitality and retail industries, where workers are among the most award-reliant, are also the lowest paid. Both industries are characterised by persistently high job vacancies.

My research with Susan Belardi and Angela Knox on the hospitality industry found pay competitiveness is important for attracting and retaining workers – and addressing job vacancies.

Other Australian studies point to uncompetitive pay contributing to worker shortages.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has found collective bargaining – rather than individuals negotiating their own pay – can:

benefit not only workers, but also firms, as lower turnover and longer tenure can reduce hiring and training costs and increase productivity.

Other international research also shows sector-wide agreements with workers can help drive greater business productivity.

The evidence suggests that without penalty rates, not only would workers be disadvantaged, but business problems relating to worker shortages and productivity might end up worse than before.

Chris F. Wright currently receives funding from the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. In the past he has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the UK Economic and Social Research Council, the International Labour Organization, the Australian and NSW governments, and various business and trade union organisations. None of the funding he has received relates to the legislation discussed in this article.

– ref. Employers warn Labor’s push to lock in penalty rates is bad for business – but it’s not that simple – https://theconversation.com/employers-warn-labors-push-to-lock-in-penalty-rates-is-bad-for-business-but-its-not-that-simple-261858