Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Libby (Elizabeth) Sander, MBA Director & Associate Professor of Organisational Behaviour, Bond Business School, Bond University

So your boss wants you in the office more? If this makes you anxious, you’re not alone.

Return-to-work tensions aren’t simply resistance to change. They reflect deeper questions about how different people work best and what modern organisations actually need to succeed.

After COVID, return-to-office rates stabilised by around June 2023, without much movement since.

In Australia, 36% of Australians were working from home regularly in August 2024 and 37% in 2023. This is a dramatic shift from pre-pandemic levels when only 5% of Australians worked from home regularly.

In Europe and North America, around 30% of employees now work hybrid schedules, with 8% fully remote.

Yet tensions persist. Many employers are pushing harder to get workers back in person, while unions are pushing back. The Australian Services Union recently requested presumed work-from-home arrangements and 26 weeks’ notice before employees have to return to the office.

Meanwhile, the Victorian government plans to introduce laws giving employees the legal right to work from home two days a week.

Workers tend to prefer hybrid models

Research on remote and hybrid work models reveals both benefits and challenges.

Hybrid work can increase productivity, improve work-life balance and reduce attrition rates.

A 2024 randomised controlled trial found hybrid work arrangements led to 33% lower quit rates. There were particular benefits for women, non-managers and employees with long commutes.

Research tracking individual productivity found fully remote work was associated with a 10% drop in productivity. However, hybrid working appeared to “have no impact on productivity”.

Employees generally prefer hybrid models, with many willing to accept pay cuts for remote work options.

It’s good to spend some time in the office

There are benefits in spending time with our colleagues face-to-face.

We learn more naturally in social settings. We gain knowledge informally through observation, spontaneous questions and overheard conversations.

The social connections that form more readily in person contribute significantly to employee retention and satisfaction.

Collaboration and innovation often flows better face-to-face too.

Some things are difficult to replicate virtually. The spontaneity of brainstorming, the nuanced communication possible through body language, and the collective energy of problem-solving are hard to achieve online.

Being able to work from home improves inclusion

Parents, carers and people with disabilities benefit significantly from the flexibility to manage responsibilities while maintaining productivity.

Recent research shows flexible working practices are important for neurodivergent employees. This includes those with autism and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

Neurodivergent workers make up a significant percentage of the Australian workforce: 12% in 2024. And in the United States, 20% of adults have a learning or attention issue.

For neurodivergent employees, working at home gives much-needed sensory control and routine flexibility. This includes adjusting lighting to reduce overwhelm, controlling noise levels and taking breaks when needed. It also allows avoiding the social exhaustion that constant office interactions can create.

Loneliness is also a workplace issue

Loneliness is a significant concern among both remote and on-site workers.

A survey of 7,500 American workers found over half feel lonely. Some 36% of lonely workers were more likely to seek a job somewhere else, compared with 20% of workers who were not lonely. Additionally, 42% of lonely workers reported being disengaged. This is twice as many as among surveyed workers who were not lonely.

Earlier research from 2024 found one in five workers globally experienced loneliness a lot in the previous day.

Loneliness is particularly pronounced among younger workers, with 46% of those aged 18–24 feeling left out.

Loneliness impacts business performance as well individuals. Workplace loneliness leads to decreased engagement, reduced commitment, and increased turnover.

Managers can address workplace loneliness by fostering a culture of wellbeing, creating opportunities to build relationships, increasing support and practising inclusive decision-making.

How can employers help anxious staff return to the office?

Know that workers may feel anxious about returning to offices, so allow them to ease back in. Gradual transitions prove more effective than abrupt changes, perhaps starting with one day weekly before building up.

Preparation is essential to support a diverse workforce. This should include clear communication about hybrid expectations, flexibility where possible, and recognition that transitions take time.

Attention to the physical work environment is vital. Creating inclusive office environments means considering lighting, noise levels and providing spaces where employees can work without visual and auditory distraction.

Regular check-ins with returning staff, openness to feedback and maintaining flexibility around working arrangements can significantly ease transitions.

Finally, keep in mind that forced returns can backfire, creating more anxiety rather than engagement.

Set policies that allow employees to thrive

The evidence highlights that no approach works for everyone. Some people genuinely thrive in collaborative office environments, while others do their best work from home.

A large body of research shows a majority of workers benefit from hybrid models that maximise both collaboration and individual productivity, while supporting diverse working styles.

Organisations need to adopt both evidenced-based practice and individual flexibility to get the best from their workforce. Success depends on recognising that workplace anxiety, loneliness and productivity are complex issues requiring individualised approaches.

Whether you’re an employee worried about office returns, or a manager supporting your team, focus on creating environments where everyone can contribute effectively, while maintaining wellbeing.

As this workplace evolution continues, the most successful organisations will be those that remain flexible, listen to diverse employee needs, and adapt based on evidence rather than personal preferences or assumptions about what is most effective.

Libby (Elizabeth) Sander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. When it comes to wellbeing, what are the pros and cons of working in an office vs from home? – https://theconversation.com/when-it-comes-to-wellbeing-what-are-the-pros-and-cons-of-working-in-an-office-vs-from-home-263540

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brian Q. Jenkins, Lecturer, School of Health Sciences and Social Work, Griffith University

This year Australia has seen a horrific string of reports and allegations about abuse and neglect in childcare centres. Families are desperate to ensure their kids are safe and political leaders have been rushing to respond.

Last month, federal parliament passed legislation to strip funding from centres not meeting safety and quality standards. Earlier this week, the Victorian government released a damning report, which called for a shakeup of the early childhood sector.

On Friday, Australia’s federal and state education ministers agreed on several new safety measures. Federal Early Childhood Education Minister Jess Walsh described them as “the strongest and most significant package of child safety reforms in our nation’s history.”

What was agreed? And how could they be improved?

What’s been announced?

Education ministers agreed to set up a new “national educator register” to tell regulators who is working in the early childhood sector and where. It will also show the status of people’s working with children checks. Federal Education Minister Jason Clare said it would be developed from scratch, need new legislation and roll out from February next year.

Other measures include:

• mandatory child safety training for all early childhood education staff – including the bosses of childcare companies. This will begin in 2026 to help workers “spot a person who might be hiding in plain sight” and who may be grooming a child

• a national CCTV trial in up to 300 services, which will begin by the end of 2025

• a ban on personal mobile phones in services from September 1 2025

• 1,600 extra spot checks to be carried out by Commonwealth officers

• more information for parents about the condition and record of centres, including the last time a check was made and if any issues have been raised by regulators.

These measures are a positive start but they could also go further, as we explain below.

Read more:
The new childcare bill relies on something going wrong to keep kids ‘safe’. Here’s what else we should do

Is a national educator register a good idea?

A register for early childhood education and care workers makes sense. The register will be helpful for tracking where people have worked, so potential employers can look up the backgrounds of those applying for jobs.

For example, it could be a red flag if someone has moved around a lot (noting the sector is highly casualised, staff turnover is high and it is not unusual for people to work in multiple jobs). A national register will also help investigators if someone is suspected of wrongdoing.

Clare says the government will “develop and build” the register over time. But in its current planned form, it falls short of a nationally consistent reportable conduct scheme (which was proposed by the child abuse royal commission in 2017).

This would include any reports of misconduct that cannot be prosecuted criminally and are therefore missed in criminal history screenings (via working with children checks).

Some states are doing this on their own (for example from July 2026, in Queensland, early childhood organisations will be required to report concerning conduct from anyone who works with children). This week, the Victorian government announced it would reform its reportable conduct scheme so information relevant to child-safety “whether substantiated or not” is shared with relevant regulators and agencies.

But such schemes are most effective if they’re all connected to each other as it’s very easy to cross a border in Australia. We should also be enforcing standards around reference checks – which was recommended by the Victorian review this week.

How would CCTV help?

A 2025 report on the New South Wales sector estimated 30% of childcare services already had CCTV installed.

Obviously, 300 services nationally is not a lot (there are more than 9,000 centre-based services in Australia). Clare said the trial would look at where cameras are placed in centres and how data can be safely stored.

We know CCTV can have a general deterrent effect – and people are less likely to offend if they believe they are being surveilled. And it can also be used in investigations if there is an allegation or complaint. Research (including our own upcoming study) suggests many educators would like CCTV for their own protection if allegations were ever made against them.

But we can’t expect CCTV to prevent everything – you can’t have someone sitting at a control panel looking at footage all the time.

The Victorian report recommended a “four eyes” principal in centres, where there need to be two adults, visible to each other, taking care of kids at all times. Clare told reporters on Friday ministers had asked the national childcare authority to report back before the end of the year on this idea and the impact on educator-to-child ratios. This is an important prevention strategy. But it will depend on addressing workforce issues so there are enough staff who are empowered to speak up when they notice something.

More spot checks

Regulatory agencies have been woefully under-resourced – so more funds to do checks is a positive step. But beyond the spot checks, regulators need to actually shut services down if they are unsafe.

They have previously had the power to do this but have rarely done it, given the impact on families. As the Productivity Commission noted in 2024, shutting a service down was “severe” and “should be used as a last resort when less severe measures have not succeeded.”

Parents should also know they can do a spot check themselves at any time. Just turn up at your centre unannounced (so, not at 8am or 5pm). Is your centre welcoming and happy to see you? Do the children seem calm and cared for?

Read more:
Parents of kids in daycare are terrified following Melbourne abuse allegations. What can they do?

What are we missing?

As the Victorian report observed this week, there is an inherent problem in Australia’s early childhood system. It is mainly run by for-profit providers. We know for-profit childcare services are, on average, rated as lower quality than not-for-profit services.

These latest federal government proposals don’t address the root causes of problems in the early childhood. Instead they work within the boundaries of what we already have. There is a tendency for policymakers to take the conventional wisdom and package it up and say “we’re doing more, we’re trying harder”.

Arguably we have to do something more radical and restructure the entire sector so profit is not a driver and services are only focused on quality and safety.

Brian Q. Jenkins has received funding from the Queensland Family and Child Commission.

Danielle Arlanda Harris has received funding from the Queensland Family and Child Commission.

– ref. Australia will get a register to track educators and CCTV trial in centres – we still need more to keep kids safe – https://theconversation.com/australia-will-get-a-register-to-track-educators-and-cctv-trial-in-centres-we-still-need-more-to-keep-kids-safe-263641

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Houlihan, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Psychology, University of the Sunshine Coast

Eating disorders can affect anybody, no matter their age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status or body size. Yet the myth that eating disorders are “diseases of affluence” persists, and can mean those from wealthier backgrounds are more likely to receive a diagnosis and be able to access treatment.

In fact, people who experience socioeconomic disadvantage may be more at risk of developing eating disorder symptoms, such as excessive dieting, fasting or binge eating.

A new study from the United Kingdom followed 7,824 children, roughly half male and half female, from birth to 18 years. It found those born into financial hardship were more likely than others to later experience eating disorder symptoms as teens.

This means the stereotype that eating disorders only affect the rich is simply not true. And it shows we need to better understand the risk for children from lower-income families, so we can recognise and treat their symptoms earlier.

What the study looked at

Previous research has shown eating disorders can affect people from all socioeconomic backgrounds, not just those with higher economic status. But this new study is one of the first to show deprivation in childhood could be a risk factor for eating disorder symptoms in adolescence.

This new large, long-term study collected data from thousands of people over an 18-year period to investigate the impact of social and financial hardship.

Researchers looked at parents’ education, job type and where they lived. They also examined income, which was split into five groups from low to high. These were more aspects of social studies than previous research had considered.

To assess financial hardship, mothers rated how much they struggled to afford daily expenses such as food, heating, clothing, rent and baby items. They used a scale from 0-15, with higher scores indicating greater hardship.

When the children grew up to be teenagers, researchers assessed eating disorder symptoms in all the young people across the study.

Patterns of disordered eating included excessive dieting, binge eating, vomiting or using laxatives to get rid of food, and fasting. The teens were also asked how they felt about their bodies – for example, how satisfied they were with their appearance, weight and shape.

What the study found

Eating disorder symptoms were higher in young people aged 14–18 whose parents had suffered greater financial hardship when they were babies. For patterns of disordered eating, this meant a 6% higher likelihood for every one point increase between 0 and 15 on the financial-hardship scale.

The study also found teens whose parents completed less formal education (meaning only compulsory schooling) were 80% more likely to experience disordered eating patterns than those whose parents went to university. For teens with parents in the lowest fifth and fourth income band, the risk was 34–35% higher than those in the top band of income.

These results are different to other studies on eating disorders, because they show people from low socioeconomic backgrounds have a higher chance of developing eating disorder symptoms.

The researchers suggest this difference may be because other studies only included participants with a diagnosis or who have sought help. Research has shown those experiencing financial hardship are less likely to be formally diagnosed or access treatment.

While this study is impressive in its size and results, it has a few limitations. Only around half the participants (55.9%) completed the full study, which may have affected the results.

Among those who did complete the study, some of their data was missing. This may also have influenced the findings.

The study also did not measure whether young people had a diagnosed eating disorder – only whether they had symptoms.

So, it may have captured a wider range of eating disorder experiences, including from those who wouldn’t seek formal support. But it means more research is needed to understand the link between socioeconomic status and formal diagnosis.

What does this mean?

People who are born into financial hardship may be more likely to struggle with disordered eating and body image issues in their teenage years than those who are not.

This not only debunks the stereotype that eating disorders occur only in people from affluent backgrounds, it shows disadvantage can be a risk factor.

The study sheds light on the inequalities and barriers in recognising and treating eating disorders.

Rates of people seeking help for an eating disorder are already low – and even lower among people from disadvantaged backgrounds.

The researchers suggested this could be because people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds may also believe eating disorders mainly affect people from wealthier backgrounds.

Another reason may be that lower income is linked to higher rates of obesity and being overweight, and this might limit referrals for eating disorder symptoms.

Eating disorders not associated with thinness, such as bulimia and binge eating disorder, are often less visible and go undetected.

Better education about eating disorders – in schools and for families and health-care professionals – may help us recognise and treat them earlier.

But treatment also needs to be more affordable. In Australia, people can access eating disorder treatment sessions under Medicare, but this typically still involves a gap fee which can be up to A$100 or more, depending on the service. More no- or low-cost services are needed to reach everyone who needs them.

If you have a history of an eating disorder or suspect you may have one, you can contact the Butterfly Foundation’s national helpline on 1800 334 673 (or via their online chat).

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Eating disorder symptoms in teens can be traced back to family hardship, new study shows – https://theconversation.com/eating-disorder-symptoms-in-teens-can-be-traced-back-to-family-hardship-new-study-shows-263529

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ka Hang Wong, PhD candidate, University of Technology Sydney

It’s been five years since Beijing imposed a harsh new national security law on Hong Kong. During this time, the law has fundamentally altered the city-state, prompting scores of pro-democracy leaders to flee overseas and instilling a climate of fear and repression that has quashed any opposition to the communist government in Beijing.

The law came after months of mass protests in 2019 and 2020 over a bill that would have allowed suspects to be extradited from Hong Kong to mainland China.

That bill was withdrawn, but Beijing did not scale back its ambitions. Instead, it introduced the national security law in June 2020, bypassing Hong Kong’s legislature. The law prohibits anything deemed by Beijing to constitute secession, subversion, terrorism or collusion with foreign forces.

The law also allows certain national security cases to be transferred to mainland courts, achieving by decree what the failed extradition bill had attempted to do.

Controlling the narrative

The law has reshaped Hong Kong’s politics, education and media since its introduction.

The city’s new school curriculum, for instance, denies Hong Kong was once a British colony. The curriculum redefines patriotism as unconditional allegiance to the Chinese state, with teachers facing repercussions if they present alternative views.

The teachings of “Xi Jinping Thought” are part of the new curriculum, while English classes in primary schools now focus on patriotism and national security.

The mantra “Hong Kong is an inalienable part of China” is also now repeated with ritualistic persistence across the city.

This further reinforces a distorted version of history that seeks to erase Hong Kong’s British past and dismisses Hongkongers’ nationality ties to the United Kingdom.

By controlling the narrative, the Chinese Communist Party is not only managing dissent but also reshaping Hong Kong’s civic identity to fit its own definition of loyalty.

Arresting dissidents and shutting down media

Opposition politics have been effectively dismantled since the law was brought into force.

Late last year, 45 of the city’s most well-known former pro-democracy figures were jailed over their participation in the 2020 unofficial primaries for local elections.

In June of this year, 28-year-old Joshua Wong, one of Hong Kong’s most famous advocates for Hong Kong’s self-determination, was charged with new offences under the national security law that could keep him imprisoned for life.

A human rights report released last month shows that 80% of Hongkongers targeted under the law since 2020 should not have been charged, and in 90% of cases, bail was denied.

Independent media outlets have met the same fate. In 2021, the pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily was raided under the law, after which it ceased publication.

Its founder, Jimmy Lai, is currently facing trial on charges of colluding with foreign forces, with a verdict due soon.

Stand News, another independent outlet, was shut down following similar raids. Its senior editors are now serving prison sentences.

Repression beyond Hong Kong

The national security law also applies to anyone, anywhere in the world.

In July, the Hong Kong government issued arrest warrants and placed bounties on 19 foreign nationals for their involvement in the creation of an overseas “Hong Kong Parliament”.

Western governments reacted sharply to the bounties. In recent days, Australia and the UK also granted asylum to two of the activists who had been targeted.

China’s growing diplomatic presence overseas has also raised suspicions for Hongkongers who have fled the city. In London, plans for a massive new Chinese embassy complex have prompted security questions. The UK government has sought clarification over parts of the building plans that have been redacted, while both the US and Netherlands have issued their own security concerns.

What Western governments can do

While condemnation has been widespread, concrete policy responses from Western governments have been more limited. The one exception is the UK.

In January 2021, the UK opened a citizenship pathway for holders of British National (Overseas) passports and their dependants, allowing some Hongkongers to settle in the UK and eventually gain British citizenship.

Since the introduction of the national security law, more than 166,300 people have used the new BN(O) route to relocate to the UK. An estimated 5.4 million Hongkongers are eligible to apply for the scheme.

For these Hongkongers who have left, exile is not simply an escape from fear; it is a conscious commitment to hold onto their historic identity and memory as part of the former British empire.

The 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration promised that Hong Kong’s way of life would remain unchanged for 50 years after the 1997 handover to Chinese rule.

Five years into the national security law, that promise appears hollow. The law has redrawn Hong Kong’s legal boundaries, imprisoned its pro-democracy activists, transformed its education system and silenced its media.

In 2023, Chris Patten, Hong Kong’s last British governor, put it succinctly:

Here is an example of freedom, and the sort of freedom we take for granted in most Western societies, being under assault. If we allow it to go under, if we allow it to be buried in Hong Kong, then sooner or later it’ll threaten everyone.

Ka Hang Wong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Overseas bounties, patriotic education and suppression: how the national security law is changing Hong Kong – https://theconversation.com/overseas-bounties-patriotic-education-and-suppression-how-the-national-security-law-is-changing-hong-kong-262958

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Philip Johnson, Lecturer, College of Business, Government and Law, Flinders University

In early August, US President Donald Trump signed a not-so-secretive order to make plans for the use of US military force against specific Latin American criminal organisations.

The plans were acted upon this week. The US deployed three guided-missile destroyers to the waters off Venezuela, with the authority to interdict drug shipments.

This was not exactly a surprise move. During his inauguration in January, Trump signed an executive order designating some criminal groups as foreign terrorist organisations. At the time, he told a journalist this could lead to US special forces conducting operations in Mexico.

Weeks later, six Mexican cartels were added to the foreign terrorist list, as were two other organisations: MS-13, an El Salvadoran gang and particular focus during Trump’s first presidency, and Tren De Aragua, a Venezuelan gang and frequent target during Trump’s presidential campaign in 2024.

Read more:
What is Tren de Aragua? How the Venezuelan gang started − and why US policies may only make it stronger

In May, two Haitian groups were added to the list. Then, in July, another Venezuelan organisation known as the Cartel of the Suns was added to a similar list because of its support for other criminal groups.

Fentanyl brings a new focus on organised crime

Illicit substances have flown across the US-Mexican border for more than a century. But the emergence of the synthetic opioid fentanyl has shaken up US responses to the illicit drug trade.

Highly addictive and potent, fentanyl has caused a sharp increase in overdose deaths in the US since 2013.

Successive US governments have had little success at curbing fentanyl overdoses.

Instead, an emerging political consensus portrays fentanyl as an external problem and therefore a border problem.

When the Biden administration captured Ismael Zambada – one of Mexico’s most elusive drug barons who trafficked tonnes of cocaine into the US for 40 years – he was charged with conspiracy to distribute fentanyl. Even progressive independent Bernie Sanders has pivoted to claiming border security was the solution to the fentanyl crisis.

But focusing on border security will do little to improve or save lives within the US.

Tougher border measures have never effectively curtailed the supply of other illicit substances such as cocaine, heroin, or methamphetamine.

These measures do little to reduce harm or dependency within the US, where a largely unaccountable pharmaceutical industry first pushed synthetic opioids.

The question remains just what can be achieved by US military operations.

How to spot a cartel

While the chemical emissions from fentanyl labs are easily spotted by drones, cartels and their operatives are decidedly more difficult to identify.

Criminal organisations in Mexico tend to be loose networks of smaller factions. They don’t operate in strict hierarchies like corporations or armies.

The decentralised nature of these networks makes them extremely resilient. If one part of the chain is disrupted, the network adapts, sourcing materials from different places or pushing goods along different trafficking routes.

But US and Mexican security agencies often act as though cartels follow rigid hierarchies. The so-called “kingpin strategy” focuses on killing or arresting the leadership of criminal organisations, expecting it to render them unable to operate.

However, this strategy often exacerbates violence, as rival factions compete to take over the turf of fallen kingpins.

Combating criminal groups with the military has already been a spectacular failure in Mexico.

Former President Felipe Calderón declared war on the cartels in 2006, but his government lost credibility for leading Mexico into a war it could not win or escape.

Tens of thousands of people are now killed every year, a dramatic increase from the historically low homicide rates in the years leading up to 2006. More than 100,000 have disappeared since the beginning of the war.

Outside interventions also run the risk of increasing support for criminal groups.

In my research, I’ve found cartels sometimes market themselves as guardians of local people, successfully positioning themselves as more in touch with local people than the distant Mexican state.

Cartels can also certainly make the most of deep antipathy towards US intervention in Mexico.

All cartels are not equal

Deploying warships off the coast of Venezuela will have minimal impact on the fentanyl trade.

Fentanyl enters the US from Mexico and even from Canada – but Venezuela doesn’t feature in US threat assessments for fentanyl.

Military action against the Cartel of the Suns will also be largely ineffectual, as this group exists in name only.

Research has found this isn’t an actual cartel – rather, the name describes a loose network of competing drug-trafficking networks within the Venezuelan state. Figures in the government certainly have ties to the illicit drug trade, but they are not organised in a cartel.

In Mexico, however, the cartels do exist – albeit not as imagined by the US government.

Given the US has invaded and seized territory from Mexico in the past, US military intervention has minimal prospect of support from Mexican governments.

Current President Claudia Sheinbaum has shown a willingness to accommodate the Trump government on matters of fentanyl trafficking. She has deployed thousands of members of the National Guard to police the border and major trafficking centres, such as the state of Sinaloa.

The Mexican government has also made two mass extraditions of captured crime bosses to the US. As with the capture of Zambada by the Biden government, this is likely to be used as evidence the US is winning the battle against fentanyl.

Then again, these crime bosses could be put to other uses.

The US government recently returned an imprisoned leader of MS-13 to El Salvador, even though he was indicted for terrorism in the US.

This move was part of the deal-making between the US government and President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador.

The US government may be eager to take the fight to organised crime, but sometimes political expediency is a bigger priority.

Philip Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The US government wants to use the military against drug traffickers. History suggests this may backfire – https://theconversation.com/the-us-government-wants-to-use-the-military-against-drug-traffickers-history-suggests-this-may-backfire-263124

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra

Day three of the government’s economic reform roundtable was about budget sustainability. It’s a slow burn issue. If the Australian government spends more than it raises in revenue, it has to finance the difference (the budget deficit) by borrowing. The most recent budget has forecast deficits for at least the next decade.

It is not an immediate problem. Domestic and overseas investors want to lend to Australia. However, each successive deficit leads to more borrowing – which keeps the interest bill growing. Eventually this debt has to be repaid.

At some point governments have to fix the problem through more tax, cutting spending, or both.

The ideal tax solution is a fairer, simpler system that raises more revenue. There is no shortage of ideas on how.

Reform is needed, but how do we get there?

Treasurer Jim Chalmers emerged from the three-day summit saying there was broad support from the gathered business and union leaders and economists for a simpler and more equitable tax system. He said on Friday morning:

Really, one of the defining outcomes of this economic reform roundtable was building consensus and momentum around ensuring that intergenerational fairness is one of the defining principles of our country, but also of our government.

The treasurer listed “building a better tax system” as one of ten long-term reform priorities.

He set three objectives to guide any changes:

• a fair go for working people

• an affordable, responsible way to incentivise business investment

• and how to make the system simpler and more sustainable.

These are laudable goals. The objections will come when government tries to turn them into specific amendments. Australians are notoriously wary of tax changes.
There was a taste of this in the backlash to the government’s plan to reduce the tax concessions on superannuation balances over A$3 million.

That is no doubt why Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in advance of the roundtable ruled out further tax changes before the next election.

Tax settings should not be ‘set in stone’

Grattan Institute Chief Executive Aruna Sathanapally presented the roundtable with ideas for a better tax system.

Among her ideas were making personal income tax more equitable, improving business taxation and introducing a carbon tax.

Sathanapally argued rebalancing personal income tax could come in pieces: reducing superannuation concessions, introducing at least a low tax rate on earnings in retirement, reducing the capital gains discount and reforms to family trusts.

Or it could be systematic: a system that brings consistency to how we treat different types of savings.

Another attendee, economist Bob Breunig, likely gave the roundtable a summary of his and his colleagues’ recent research showing how the tax system unfairly benefits older Australians at the expense of younger Australians paying income tax.

This is leading to greater intergenerational inequity. One of the causes is low taxes on income from savings or wealth, housing and superannuation.

Government spending is part of the story

The other side of budget sustainability, spending, garnered less attention despite huge spending pressures.

The one category of spending that government cannot change by policy is the interest payments on the public debt. All the others are choices. We could decide to spend less in any or all of these areas. Indeed, Health Minister Mark Butler’s announcement of changes to the NDIS goes some way towards that. Other areas could be candidates for savings.

Nevertheless, the indicators from the roundtable are that tax reform is a higher priority for the government than spending cuts.

Although we may be moving to a consensus that we should do something to fix the tax system, there is little agreement on what that something should be. A long period of discussion and consultation may be just what the government needs.

The last big tax reform was 25 years ago

We have been here before. Australia’s last really big tax reform, the GST, was a long time coming. Then-Treasurer Paul Keating proposed it at Labor’s 1985 tax summit, but was overruled.

In 1995, Prime Minister John Howard promised the Coalition would “never, ever” introduce a Goods and Services Tax (GST). However, he changed his position, took it to the 1998 election, and won – and the GST took effect from July 1, 2000. Controversial then, it is now an accepted part of our tax system.

Something similar may happen with current tax proposals. The government could hold off implementation until after the next election campaign. If it gains a mandate, following sustained consultation to build support, reforms have a chance of success.

As an added benefit, a long period of reflection could help the community to connect dots.

Housing affordability, another major challenge addressed by the roundtable, is inextricably linked with tax incentives that put upward pressure on prices. That’s also noted in Breunig’s paper. Through tax reform, we could, if the government gains community support, help solve budget sustainability and housing at the same time. We can only hope.

Read more: Full coverage of the reform roundtable

Stephen Bartos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. After three days of talks, a fairer tax system is on the agenda. There’s no shortage of ideas – https://theconversation.com/after-three-days-of-talks-a-fairer-tax-system-is-on-the-agenda-theres-no-shortage-of-ideas-263330

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Jordan, Associate Professor and Cochrane New Zealand Fellow, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

For almost two decades, all New Zealanders had free access to one of the world’s most trusted libraries on medical information.

The Cochrane Library is known as the gold standard in health research.

It is globally respected as a source of independent, peer-reviewed health evidence, providing systematic reviews, rigorous summaries and information about clinical trials that help guide decisions about everything from cancer treatments to mental health therapies.

The reviews are trusted because they are transparent and free from commercial influence. But full access is now under threat as a new licence would limit it to health professionals only from the end of September.

This shift will save some money, but it could have broad consequences. In an age of misinformation, having access to reliable health evidence isn’t a luxury but a necessity.

Restricting access

During the restructure of the health system, the government moved the responsibility to continue funding access to the Cochrane Library from the Ministry of Health to Health New Zealand. Health New Zealand has now decided to downgrade the national license to one that serves only healthcare professionals.

Under the new license, access will be restricted to Health New Zealand staff and primary care providers only. This means national bodies such as the drug-funding agency PHARMAC, the Accident Compensation Corporation and even the Ministry of Health will be excluded, as will all universities.

Most concerning is that everyday New Zealanders will lose access to the very evidence that helps them make informed decisions about their health.

Last year alone, New Zealanders downloaded more than 100,000 Cochrane reviews – that’s 276 every single day. This isn’t a niche resource. Access to this library should be valued as a national asset.

Restricting access takes us back to a time when medical knowledge was held tightly by professionals, with the public expected to simply trust and follow. In today’s world, where transparency and empowerment are key to good health outcomes, this move feels like a step in the wrong direction.

New Zealand falls behind

While New Zealand steps back, other countries are stepping forward. National subscriptions to the Cochrane Library are funded for Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Malaysia, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and for most of Canada.

Even low- and middle-income countries have access through international programmes. New Zealand risks falling behind not only wealthy nations, but those with fewer resources – a sobering reality for a country whose health system once led the way.

The cost of maintaining the national license is relatively modest, especially when compared to other health innovations. Before the introduction of a universal national license, individual institutions, universities, hospitals and government agencies each paid separately for access, placing a greater burden on the public purse.

The national license was adopted in 2006 because it was more cost-effective overall. And as a bonus, it didn’t just consolidate spending, it expanded access. For the first time, all New Zealanders could freely access the same world-class health evidence as clinicians and researchers, all for less than what we were paying before.

New Zealand produces more Cochrane reviews per capita than any other country. Losing national access would be like silencing our own voice in the global conversation.

The decision to downgrade the Cochrane Library license may seem like a small change. But its impact is deeply human. It affects the doctor-patient relationship by no longer ensuring both parties have the same information. It also has an impact on students learning to care for patients, policy makers shaping health strategy and parents trying to understand a diagnosis.

Health evidence should not be locked behind institutional walls. It should be open to all, especially in a country that values fairness, transparency and informed decision making.

I argue that maintaining the national licence would be a low-cost, high-impact decision. This is about more than money. Providing full access fosters equity and trust.

Vanessa Jordan is a director for the Cochrane Collaboration (a UK based charity). She has also previously received funding from the New Zealand Ministry of Health to promote access to the Cochrane Library

– ref. The Cochrane library is a global source of independent health evidence for everyone – why is NZ restricting access? – https://theconversation.com/the-cochrane-library-is-a-global-source-of-independent-health-evidence-for-everyone-why-is-nz-restricting-access-263272

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peninah Kansiime, Lecturer in Social Work, Edith Cowan University

This article contains descriptions of sexual violence some readers may find distressing.

Recently, the United Nations Chief warned Israel he had consistently noted “patterns of certain forms of sexual violence” perpetrated by Israeli armed forces against Palestinians.

The warning followed a damning UN report in March. It documented the extent of the sexual, reproductive and gender-based violence being inflicted upon the people of Gaza.

One such case was a horrendous alleged gang rape case of a Palestinian male at Sde Teiman Detention facility in 2024, by Israel Defense Force (IDF) soldiers. It was reportedly captured on video.

The victim’s injuries included a torn rectum, broken ribs, and ruptured bowels caused by sodomy and foreign objects. The damage was so severe, he was unable to walk.

This is just one example of the widespread sexual violence occurring – violence that will leave lasting trauma, but for which there may never be accountability or justice.

Sexually violent warfare

Both Israeli and Palestinian authorities have accused each other of committing sexual violence.

The United Nations has filed reports of sexual violence committed by Israeli soldiers against Palestinians.

The UN has also reported sexual violence against Israeli hostages, particularly on October 7, 2023. A 2024 report found Israelis were raped or gang raped on October 7, and there were “reasonable grounds to believe that such violence may still be ongoing against those in captivity”.

As with all sexual violence, hard evidence and empirical data can be hard to come by.

Attacks on reproduction

There have also been repeated attacks on Palestinians’ reproductive health and access, considered a reproductive rights crisis.

Fertility clinics and IVF facilties have been bombed, also blocking neonatal care for pregnancies. There have also been reports of young people having their genitals shot.

In their report, the UN said such attacks:

are destroying the reproductive capacity of Palestinians in Gaza as a group through the systematic destruction of sexual and reproductive healthcare.

Some scholars consider these actions a form of ethnic cleansing. Rights groups also say such attacks are considered an atrocity under international law.

Palestinian hostages

UN human rights experts believe the allegations of gang rape only represent the “tip of the iceberg” of the experiences of Palestinian detainees. There’s an estimated 10,000 Palestinians in Israeli custody, with 5,000 having been held since before October 7th. Some are children.

These Palestinians have been referred to as de facto hostages, due to being held unlawfully, according to the International Court of Justice.

Read more:
UN’s top court puts Israel on notice over its war in Gaza. Here’s what its judgement could mean

The prisons have been referred to as “torture camps” by the Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories due to the documented abuse.

In addition to deaths in custody, prisoners appear to be regularly subjected to inhumane conditions, as well as torture, humiliation, degradation, sexual abuse and rape.

Hamas is also keeping people captive, with around 50 people in their custody, 20 of whom are believed to be alive.

Histories of violence

Many international authorities and legal experts call Israel’s actions in Gaza a genocide.

History shows us sexual violence has also been used in other genocidal conflicts.
It was widely used in Rwanda in 1994, and earlier in Nazi Germany.

Bosnian Muslim women were targeted with rape during the conflict in Bosnia-Herzegovina in the 1990s.

Currently, distressing cases of sexual violence are also being reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Eritrea against Tigray women, Sudan and Myanmar.

The United Nations has documented more than 51,000 cases of sexual violence across various conflicts, with a 50% increase in the number of victims in the last three years.

Reported cases include a wide range of unthinkable acts, including gang rape, anal rape, sexual slavery, abortion and genital mutilation among women and girls, as well as men and boys.

This figure is grossly underreported as many victims do not come forward due to fear, guilt and shame.

Gendered experiences

While historically, sex has been used as weapon of war, used mostly against women and girls, sexual violence against men and boys also happens and is less discussed.

The accusations of gang rape at Sde Teiman detention facility in Israel were barely covered by mainstream media at the time. This type of violence against men often remains hidden mostly due to rigid gender norms and misconceptions about masculinity and male victimisation.

The Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict data set has identified male victims in more than 33 conflicts across the globe. Men have been victims of sexual violence in Palestine, Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine and in many other conflicts.

State security personnel have been named as the most common perpetrators, especially in detention where sexual violence is used to extract information from detainees. Available evidence shows this is what may be happening to some Palestinian men under Israeli detention.

The vast majority of sexual violence in war is perpetrated by men. Victims of sexual violence, both in Gaza are more broadly, are disproportionately women and girls.

The UN has recently referred to Gaza as a femi-genocide.

Long paths to recovery

The current number of convictions for sexual crimes in war falls short of the number of victims, and the huge impact such violence has on people’s lives and communities.

Additionally, sexual violence can compromise global security and efforts for resolution by creating cycles of violence that spill across borders.

For the victim-survivors, recovery is very difficult. This is partially because sexual violence in conflict is often part of a pattern of other types of abuse.

Therefore, addressing these crimes requires a multi-faceted approach.

Governments and international organisations should cooperate more to increase prevention work.

Military and security responses need to be reminded that sexual violence is prohibited under humanitarian law. Perpetrators need to be identified and tried as much as possible.

And victim-survivors deserve community support and reparations so they can heal.

The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

The authors would like to acknowledge Associate Professor Shannon Bosch for their contributions to this article.

Peninah Kansiime has worked with Professor Christopher Dolan at the Refugee Law Project in Uganda. Over the years, Professor Dolan has been very instrumental in highlighting sexual violence against men and boys in conflict, and its interconnection to sexual violence against women and girls.

Giselle Woodley receives funding from The Australian Human Rights Commission and the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Israel is on notice for using sexual violence against Palestinians. It’s all too common as a war tactic – https://theconversation.com/israel-is-on-notice-for-using-sexual-violence-against-palestinians-its-all-too-common-as-a-war-tactic-262951

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Raphael Trouve, Senior Research Fellow in Forest Dynamics and Statistical Modelling, The University of Melbourne

Something silent and sinister is happening in Australia’s mountain ash forests. As temperatures rise, these ecosystems are slowly, steadily losing their trees – and with them, their ability to store carbon.

Mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests in southeastern Australia can store from 415 to 819 tonnes of carbon per hectare. That’s more per hectare than the Amazon rainforest. So the decline of these special trees, the tallest flowering plants on Earth, is a major concern – for the forests and the climate system as a whole.

Our new research shows how mountain ash forests are changing. Half a century of forest measurements show warming is reducing the number of trees these forests can support.

For every degree of warming, a forest loses 9% of its trees. By 2080, when temperatures are expected to be 3°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, these forests could lose a quarter of their trees – and the carbon they store. This has global significance as the trend is likely to be widespread.

Why warming causes tree loss

Trees in forests compete with each other for essential resources – sunlight, water and nutrients – all of which are in limited supply. When one tree gets more resources, others get less. This is nature’s zero-sum game.

Growing trees need more and more resources to maintain basic functions, such as producing new leaves, flowers and branches. Some naturally grow larger as they intercept more of the available resources. Others become suppressed and eventually die, as the amount of resources available becomes insufficient to keep them alive.

This natural process is known as “self-thinning”. As a result, the number of trees decreases as the average tree size in a stand increases.

Warming accelerates this natural process by reducing the resources available to all trees. Warmer air pulls more moisture from soil and leaves, making it harder for trees to get enough water. Trees growing in the shade of larger neighbours, with shallower roots, suffer most from these changes.

Suppressed trees die sooner and in greater numbers. The loss of trees can happen slowly or, if there is a severe heatwave or drought, quite suddenly.

We tested these ideas, using decades of data

We analysed data from forest management experiments collected between 1947 and 2000 in Victoria’s Central Highlands. Our research focused on how many trees these forests can support – what ecologists call “carrying capacity”. This is the maximum number of trees of a given size that a piece of land can support.

We built on more than 1,300 measurements from more than 100 forest plots to understand how climate affects carrying capacity. We used statistical methods to quantify the effects of climate over time at specific locations and to compare warmer and cooler sites.

Changes in forest carrying capacity have important implications. As carrying capacity decreases, forests can shift from absorbing to releasing carbon. Rather than being carbon sinks, they become a carbon source.

We found forests supported fewer trees when growing in the warmest conditions where the air is drier. As temperature increased over the five decades, forests everywhere showed increased tree death rates and decreased carrying capacity.

Our research suggests these forests could lose a quarter of their trees by 2080, releasing more than 100 million tonnes of stored carbon. This equates to emissions from a million cars driving 10,000 kilometres a year for 75 years.

Our findings echo results from other research initiatives across Australia. Citizen scientists contributing to the Dead Tree Detective project have been documenting similar climate impacts on trees nationwide.

Global implications

Our findings have implications for global climate initiatives.

Around the world, massive tree-planting programs such as Trillion Trees are being launched to fight climate change. But our research suggests these efforts need to account for how many trees the forests will be able to support in a warmer future, not just how many they can carry now.

The impact will vary across the globe. Forests in cold regions should benefit due to longer growing seasons and milder winters. As temperatures rise, they should be able to support more trees and store more carbon – provided tree growth does not become limited by moisture availability.

In contrast, forests in warmer, seasonally dry regions such as southeastern Australia will experience the opposite trend. As they become more water-limited, tree death rates will accelerate and they will store less carbon than before.

Can we help forests cope with a warmer future?

Climate change is already reshaping the towering mountain ash forests of southeastern Australia.

Understanding how forests respond to warming will help us better protect them. While we can’t stop climate change immediately, we can help forests adapt. One promising option is ecological thinning – reducing stand density by selectively removing some trees to improve the health and survival chances of others.

Decades of international research shows thinned forests are more resilient to drought. The trees grow faster and survive better during dry periods.

While we can’t stop climate change overnight, we can make forests more resilient to drought and less prone to carbon loss.

Raphael Trouve receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Craig Nitschke receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, Greening Australia, New South Wales Natural Resources Commission, NSW Government Local Land Services, and the government-university collaboration, Australia Forest and Wood Innovations.

Patrick Baker receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research and the government-university collaboration, Australian Forest and Wood Innovations.

– ref. Climate change is driving a silent, sinister change in Australia’s mountain ash forests – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-driving-a-silent-sinister-change-in-australias-mountain-ash-forests-255737

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, Lecturer in Classics and Ancient History, The University of Western Australia

In many developed countries, the price of property has risen so high it’s meant the dream of home ownership has faded for many people. Often, renting isn’t a much better option, with an undersupply of affordable properties.

This is one of the great issues of our time. But is it a specifically modern problem? Like today, people in ancient times dreamed of having property. The purchase of a house was a source of joy.

But they also had to deal with some strikingly similar difficulties at different points in time over various centuries.

A housing crisis is nothing new

In 164 BCE, King Ptolemy of Egypt went into exile and fled to Italy. Disguised as a commoner and accompanied by three slaves, he went to Rome. There, Ptolemy sought out his friend, Demetrius.

When he found him, he was shocked. This friend, who was fairly wealthy in Egypt, was living in poor conditions.

One of the reasons for this, as we are told by the Greek historian Diodorus Siculus (c. 80–20 BCE), was that rental properties in Rome had become so expensive:

Because rents at Rome were so high, Demetrius was living in a small and altogether shabby garret.

Even though Demetrius was well-off, Rome was so costly, he couldn’t find a decent, affordable rental property.

Housing crises had serious social consequences

In the 130s BCE, Rome was in a dire situation. Owing to the greed of wealthy landowners, poorer people were increasingly unable to afford rents or purchase property.

As the Greek writer Plutarch (c. 46–119 CE) tells us:

The rich began to offer larger rents and drove out the poor.

To try to resolve this problem, Roman politicians decided to create a law “forbidding the holding by one person of more than five hundred acres of land”.

However, this law did not succeed. The wealthy found ways to evade it by getting middle men to buy property for them.

This failure had serious social consequences. As Plutarch explains:

The poor, who had been ejected from their land, no longer showed themselves eager for military service, and neglected the bringing up of children.

As people could no longer afford to live in their own country, many felt they had no stake in the future any more. They lost their desire to fight for the country, or raise future generations.

Attempts to fix the problem

Over the centuries, ancient rulers also attempted to tackle housing unaffordability in different ways.

One proposal was for the state to offer land for free, on which applicants could apply to build homes.

As the Athenian writer Xenophon (c. 430–350 BCE) noted:

If the state allowed approved applicants to erect houses on [vacant sites within the city] and granted them the freehold of the land, I think we should find a larger and better class of persons desiring to live at Athens.

What if there was no vacant land available for people without access to housing? Servius Tullius, king of Rome in the 6th century BCE, offers an example of another possible (and perhaps familiar sounding) solution – urban sprawl.

According to the historian Dionysius of Halicarnassus (writing in the 1st century BCE), Servius expanded the size of the city and made new land free to build on.

This would house Romans who “had no homes of their own”. This solution seems to have worked and expanded the size of the city greatly.

Location, location

People in ancient times also understood that location was everything. They knew that if they moved from a big city to a rural area, property would be more affordable.

For example, the Roman poet Juvenal (c. 55–127 CE) observed that for the same amount you’d pay in yearly rent in Rome:

An excellent house at Sora or Fabrateria or Frusino can be bought outright […] Here you’ll have a little garden […] Live in love with your hoe as the overseer of your vegetable garden […].

Of course, the difficulty was finding an income far from the city. For most people, that was not possible.

Refinancing and debt

If people had no money but had property without a current mortgage, they could refinance their property to get a loan. As one anonymous ancient commentator wrote about the custom of the Athenians:

People who were in debt would mortgage their houses and have notices written on them so it would be known that they were in debt.

The long-lived comic poet Alexis (c. 375–275 BCE), joked about this practice. A character in his play The Greek Girl quips about having “to mortgage all our property” to buy expensive fish for dinner.

Lessons from the past

The Roman politician Tiberius Gracchus (c. 169–133 BCE) offered a powerful piece of rhetoric about the housing crisis of his time. Referring to displaced citizens, he said that:

The wild beasts that roam over Italy have every one of them a cave or lair to lurk in; but the men who fight and die for Italy enjoy the common air and light, indeed, but nothing else.

Houseless and homeless they wander about with their wives and children […] they have not a single clod of earth that is their own.

Today, we might live in a very different world, but looking to history shows us access to housing and social cohesion have long been closely linked.

Konstantine Panegyres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The ancient Greeks and Romans grappled with housing crises, too – https://theconversation.com/the-ancient-greeks-and-romans-grappled-with-housing-crises-too-261860

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Nicole Driessen, Postdoctoral Researcher in Radio Astronomy, University of Sydney

There’s been a lot of buzz online about the August “black moon”, happening later this week.

While you’ve probably heard of a “blue moon” before, this might be the first time you’ve encountered its ominous-sounding counterpart.

You’re not alone. In fact, neither “blue moon” nor “black moon” are astronomical terms. They describe the moments when the lunar calendar and our calendar year fall out of alignment.

So what is a black moon? The current definition has nothing to do with the actual colour of the Moon.

Full moon, half moon, new moon

Let’s start by defining some key lunar terms. The Moon is “full” when its whole face or disc is illuminated by the Sun. We typically get treated to a nice, bright, full moon at night when the Sun and Moon are opposite each other with Earth in-between.

A “new” moon is when none of the Moon’s face is illuminated and the far side is illuminated instead. This happens when the Moon is up during the day, because the “far side” of the Moon is illuminated when the Moon is in-between Earth and the Sun.

A lunar cycle – the time it takes for the Moon to go from new, to full, to new again – is approximately 29.5 days long. Most years there are twelve full moons and twelve new moons.

But the 29.5 day cycle doesn’t fit perfectly into a calendar year, so every now and then there are thirteen full or new moons in a calendar year. Seven years out of every nineteen years will have thirteen full or new moons instead of twelve.

Blue moon, black moon

A blue moon is when we get a thirteenth full moon in one calendar year. Conversely, a black moon is when we get a thirteenth new moon in one calendar year.

Because these terms are entirely colloquial, there are a couple of definitions used for these extra moons. One is based on seasons and the other on simple calendar months.

Seasonal moons

A calendar year has four seasons, divided by equinoxes and solstices (see above).

Each season is roughly three months long and typically has three full moons. Some cultures give each of those seasonal full moons a special name – you’ve likely heard of “wolf moon”, “strawberry moon”, “harvest moon” and others from American folklore, for example.

Every two or three years, however, we get an extra full moon in a season. When that happens, the first, second and fourth full moons keep their usual names while the third one becomes a “blue moon”.

You’d think the idiom “once in a blue moon” comes from this name, but the folklore name is actually relatively recent. In the 16th century, saying the “moon is blue” was more likely a way to refer to something being false or absurd.

Meanwhile, the third new moon in a season with four new moons is a “black moon” – a term than can only be traced to around 2016.

Calendar moons

The other definition for blue and black moons is related to calendar months.

A blue moon is the second of two full moons in one calendar month, while a black moon is the second new moon in a calendar month.

The black moon this month is a seasonal black moon and it’s happening on August 23. The next calendar-month black moon will happen on August 31 2027.

The next seasonal blue moon will be on May 20 2027 and the next calendar-month blue moon will be on May 31 2026.

You can’t see a black moon, but look at the sky anyway

We can’t actually see the black moon. The Moon will be up during the day and the far side of it will be illuminated.

But new moons in general bode well for keen stargazers. The full moon outshines a lot of the night sky, because it’s about 33,000 times brighter than the brightest star in the sky, Sirius. When there’s a new moon, the night sky is nice and dark, giving you more opportunities to see stars and constellations.

During the black moon on August 23 this weekend, the celestial emu or Gugurmin will be beautifully positioned overhead soon after dusk in the southern hemisphere.

If you’re in the southern hemisphere somewhere very dark and free from light pollution, you’ll be able to spot the Magellanic Clouds, two small galaxies that are interacting with our Milky Way galaxy. Saturn will be visible all night, and Venus and Jupiter will be low on the northeastern horizon just before dawn.

Even though the black moon isn’t a significant astronomical event, it gives us the chance to take in the night sky on a dark, Moon-free night.

Read more:
Supermoons are boring – here are 5 things in the sky worth your time

Laura Nicole Driessen is an ambassador for the Orbit Centre of Imagination at the Rise and Shine Kindergarten, in Sydney’s Inner West.

– ref. What’s a ‘black moon’? Here’s why it’s worth looking up at the sky this week – https://theconversation.com/whats-a-black-moon-heres-why-its-worth-looking-up-at-the-sky-this-week-263205

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Stone, Professor of General Practice, University of Adelaide

A long-term relationship with a GP – one who knows you and your history – improves your health and even reduces your chance of dying prematurely.

This type of trusted relationship is particularly important if you have a serious or chronic (long-term) condition or multiple conditions. It is also important for trauma survivors, who should not need to retell their story over and over.

However, there are times when you may feel uncomfortable with your current GP. The first step is understanding why, then knowing what to do about it. Here are some reasons you might consider finding another one.

1. Your needs have changed

It is common to change GPs at pivotal times in your life. You may feel uncomfortable discussing your sexual health needs with the “family GP” who has known you since you were a child, or who still sees your parents.

If your family is having children, you may prefer a GP who does antenatal care, or sees a lot of children, so they can more readily empathise with your needs as a young parent. Perhaps your current GP doesn’t share your ideas about health care and parenting, or the practice isn’t particularly child friendly.

You may have appreciated your GP’s practical, straightforward and efficient consultation style for past sports injuries, but find this approach unhelpful when struggling with your mental health.

So you may look for a GP who better meets your current needs.

2. You want another GP who is expert in your illness

Good GPs can get “up to speed” on a variety of conditions, while still keeping the whole person in view. But sometimes, you will have a very specific need that leads to seeking a GP who is expert in that area. An example may be a GP who specialises in skin checks, or a GP who is expert in ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder).

However, you still need a generalist GP who looks at your other health-care needs. This generalist GP may well be the one who picks up early Parkinson’s disease or bowel cancer while your other GP is focused on your reproductive system or mental health.

3. You want a GP who is more aligned with your values

People differ in the type of relationship they want with their GP. You might be seeking a true partnership, where you both bring your expertise into decision making and you have the final decision. At the other end of the spectrum, you may feel more comfortable with your GP taking a more assertive role. Your needs and preferences may change over time.

Sometimes, your GP doesn’t seem to accept your views on health care. You might feel uncomfortable discussing the role of complementary medicine, or preventive health care, or your decisions to accept or reject certain treatments.

So you may seek a GP who is more aligned with your attitudes and practices.

However, GPs have their limits when it comes to accommodating your preferences. They cannot always supply your preferred medication, referral or other service, for professional, regulatory, legal or other reasons.

4. There has been a fracture of trust or confidence

Everyone makes mistakes. Sometimes, those mistakes are so serious you cannot go back to that doctor. However, there are errors where the relationship can be repaired.

A good GP will explain why an error happened, show how they (and the practice) will rectify the error, and what systems are now in place to make sure it doesn’t happen again. A sincere apology and equally sincere desire to make things right can strengthen a relationship and restore trust.

Sometimes you can feel unheard during a consultation, or the GP can seem distracted. The GP may sincerely apologise, and explain why. They are human, and can be unwell, exhausted by an untenable workload, or simply recovering from a particularly challenging consultation earlier in the day.

However, if there is a pattern of feeling the GP doesn’t hear you, makes frequent minor errors, or simply doesn’t seem to be providing the sort of professional service you expect, you may lose trust. If you feel uneasy or judged, you may need to step away from that GP.

How to break up with your GP

Good GPs understand a partnership with you is important. If you cannot maintain a relationship with them that is open, honest and safe, it is time to move on.

If your needs have changed, but you still value the GP for their care, you can send a thank you card and explain you have chosen to transfer to another doctor. The practice staff can forward your records to a new practice, for which there may be a small administrative fee.

If there has been a rupture in trust or confidence, and the issue is relatively minor, the practice manager will be able to advise how to make a written complaint to the practice.

If the problem is more serious, and you wish to make a formal complaint about a breach of trust that has implications for patient safety, you can report this to the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency.

If the problem is about the GP practice, you can report it to the relevant health-care ombudsman or commission in your state or territory.

Louise Stone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Should I break up with my GP? 4 signs it may be time – https://theconversation.com/should-i-break-up-with-my-gp-4-signs-it-may-be-time-259262

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Edwell, Associate Professor in Ancient History, Macquarie University

Some of the most enduring ancient myths in the Persian world were centred around gardens of almost unimaginable beauty and opulence.

The biblical Garden of Eden and the Epic of Gilgamesh’s Garden of the Gods are prominent examples. In these myths, paradise was an opulent garden of tranquillity and abundance.

But how did this concept of paradise originate? And what did these beautiful gardens look and feel like in antiquity?

Pairi-daēza is where we get the word ‘paradise’

The English word “paradise” derives from an old Persian word pairidaeza or pairi-daēza, which translates as “enclosed garden”.

The origins of paradise gardens lie in Mesopotamia and Persia (modern Iraq and Iran).

The Garden of the Gods from the Epic of Gilgamesh from about 2000 BCE is one of the earliest attested in literature.

Some argue it was also the inspiration for the legend of the Garden of Eden in the book of Genesis. In both of these stories, paradise gardens functioned as a type of utopia.

When the Achaemenid kings ruled ancient Persia (550–330 BCE), the development of royal paradise gardens grew significantly. The paradise garden of the Persian king, Cyrus the Great, who ruled around 550 BCE, is the earliest physical example yet discovered.

During his reign, Cyrus built a palace complex at Pasargadae in Persia. The entire complex was adorned with gardens which included canals, bridges, pathways and a large pool.

One of the gardens measured 150 metres by 120 metres (1.8 hectares). Archaeologists found evidence for the garden’s division into four parts, symbolising the four quarters of Cyrus’s vast empire.

Technological wonders

A feature of paradise gardens in Persia was their defiance of often harsh, dry landscapes.

This required ingenuity in supplying large volumes of water required for the gardens. Pasargadae was supplied by a sophisticated hydraulic system, which diverted water from the nearby Pulvar River.

The tradition continued throughout the Achaemenid period. Cyrus the Younger, probably a descendant of Cyrus the Great, had a palace at Sardis (in modern Turkey), which included a paradise garden.

According to the ancient Greek writer, Xenophon, the Spartan general Lysander visited Cyrus at the palace around 407 BCE.

When he walked in the garden, astounded by its intricate design and beauty, Lysander asked who planned it. Cyrus replied that he had designed the garden himself and planted its trees.

Perhaps the ultimate ancient paradise garden was the legendary Hanging Gardens of Babylon.

In one tradition, the gardens were built by the neo-Babylonian King, Nebuchadnezzar II (605–562 BCE).

The gardens were so magnificent and technologically advanced they were later counted among the Seven Wonders of the World.

In a later Roman account, the Hanging Gardens consisted of vaulted terraces resting on cube-shaped pillars.

Flowing water was a key feature, with elaborate machines raising water from the Euphrates river. Fully grown trees with vast root systems were supported by the terraces.

In another account, the Hanging Gardens were built by a Syrian king for his Persian wife to remind her of her homeland.

When the Sasanian dynasty (224–651 CE) came to power in Persia, its kings also built paradise gardens. The 147-hectare palace of Khosrow II (590–628 CE) at Qasr-e Shirin was almost entirely set in a paradise garden.

The paradise gardens were rich in symbolic significance. Their division into four parts symbolised imperial power, the cardinal directions and the four elements in Zoroastrian lore: air, earth, water and fire.

The gardens also played a religious role, offering a glimpse of what eternity might look like in the afterlife.

They were also a refuge in the midst of a harsh world and unforgiving environments. Gilgamesh sought solace and immortality in the Garden of the Gods following the death of his friend Enkidu.

According to the Bible, God himself walked in the Garden of Eden in the cool of the evening.

But in both cases, disappointment and distress followed.

Gilgamesh discovered the non-existence of immortality. God discovered the sin of Adam and Eve.

Paradise on Earth

The tradition of paradise gardens continued after the Islamic conquest of Persia in the 7th century CE.

The four-part gardens (known as chahar-bagh) of the Persian kingdoms were also a key feature of the Islamic period.

The Garden of Paradise described in the Quran comprised four gardens divided into two pairs. The four-part garden became symbolic of paradise on Earth.

The tradition of paradise gardens has continued in Iran to the present day.

Nine paradise gardens in Iran are collectively listed as a UNESCO World Heritage site. The Eram garden, built in about the 12th century CE, and the 19th-century Bagh-e Shahzadeh are among the most splendid.

Today, the word “paradise” evokes a broader range of images and experiences. It can foster many different images of idyllic physical and spiritual settings.

But the magnificent enclosed gardens of the ancient Persian world still inspire us to imagine what paradise on Earth might look and feel like.

Peter Edwell receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Almost unimaginable beauty and opulence: the paradise pleasure gardens of ancient Persia – https://theconversation.com/almost-unimaginable-beauty-and-opulence-the-paradise-pleasure-gardens-of-ancient-persia-259677

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Meade, Adjunct Associate Professor, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith University

In its quest to lower electricity prices for New Zealand households, the Electricity Authority may inadvertently make the situation worse.

This week, the authority announced plans to require New Zealand’s “gentailers” – firms that both generate electricity and retail it to consumers – to offer the same supply terms to independent retailers as they do to their own retail arms.

The aim is to prevent the gentailers from providing discounted electricity to themselves, thereby levelling the playing field between retailers, to deepen competition and lower prices.

Yet while greater competition and lower prices sound appealing, such expectations rest on a naïve understanding of how New Zealand’s electricity market works.

Upward pressure

Under current rules, New Zealand’s gentailers – notably Genesis, Meridian, Mercury and Contact – can supply their own retail arms at prices that reflect their cost of generation, which is typically lower than the wholesale market price.

Retailers without generation capacity must buy electricity at these higher wholesale prices, making it hard to compete with vertically integrated gentailers.

The authority expects gentailers to offer all retailers – including rivals – the same low prices they give themselves.

But no firm wants to offer rivals the lower prices that come from investing in the infrastructure to generate power themselves.

Instead, the proposed rule could induce gentailers to raise the price charged to their retail arms – thereby pushing up retail supply costs for everyone.

The risk of collusion

Even in the absence of outright collusion, there is a risk the new rules could still raise prices.

If a gentailer discounts the supply price it charges its own retail arm, it must then offer that same rate to its competitors.

Gentailers may conclude it is better to withhold discounts entirely. Since the proposed rule means they all face the same incentive, a de facto consensus to keep wholesale prices high could result – without them ever having to coordinate directly.

Rather than fostering competition, the rule creates an anti-competitive focal point. It may improve the relative position of independent retailers, but at the cost of worse outcomes overall – for consumers in particular.

This should not be surprising. Similar distortions have been observed in other sectors, often resulting from “best-price guarantees” or “most-favoured-nation clauses”. In these cases, firms pledge to match or beat rivals’ lower prices, or not to offer better deals to any single customer.

Likewise, “reference pricing” rules that cap United States’ pharmaceutical prices at levels set in other countries have been shown to raise prices overseas rather than significantly drop prices in the US.

Though seemingly good for consumers, these commitments can suppress price competition by deterring firms from undercutting each other altogether.

A questionable compromise

My research has explored competition in electricity markets where gentailers compete with standalone retailers.

I found integration between generation and retailing – the gentailer model – tends to deliver the best outcomes for consumers in a wide range of settings. Other studies examining electricity systems internationally have reached similar conclusions.

But consumers tend to fare worst in systems where vertical integration is prohibited. Ironically, independent retailers can also fare worse under such arrangements. This is because, despite often calling for the break up of gentailers, the vertical separation triggers higher wholesale prices.

The authority’s proposal represents a kind of middle ground: retaining vertical integration while using regulation to force gentailers to behave as if they were separated entities.

In modelling a scenario akin to this – what economists call “legal unbundling” – I found it indeed increased independent retailers’ profits. This may explain why some support such rules.

But legal unbundling also reduces other firms’ profits and, more worryingly, harms consumers by reducing supply volumes and raising retail prices.

Levelling the playing field in electricity retailing may sound like a good idea. But not, it seems, for consumers.

In 2021 Richard Meade was funded by an industry body representing New Zealand electricity retailers to survey the economics literature on the pros and cons of vertical integration vs vertical separation in electricity sectors. In 2025 he submitted on his own account to the Electricity Authority on its level playing field proposal.

– ref. An attempt to lower NZ electricity prices could end up doing the opposite – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/an-attempt-to-lower-nz-electricity-prices-could-end-up-doing-the-opposite-heres-why-263519

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark R Johnson, Lecturer in Digital Cultures, University of Sydney

Earlier this week, a Frenchman named Raphaël Graven died in his sleep during a livestreamed broadcast on the Kick platform.

Known online as Jean Pormanove, the man appeared to have been subjected to violence and humiliation in online videos for months, according to reports.

French police are investigating the circumstances of Graven’s death. Representatives of Kick say they too are reviewing what happened.

So what did happen? We don’t yet know – but as a livestreaming researcher I can tell you about Kick, the controversial platform where this tragic event was broadcast to the world.

What is Kick?

Kick is a video livestreaming website. People broadcast live video to an audience who can comment and donate money in real time.

The content of the stream can be practically anything, but on Kick it often involves videogames, gambling, or just people hanging out.

Kick was launched in late 2022 with funding from the Australian billionaires behind the cryptocurrency gambling site Stake.com. Kick set out to compete with livestreaming giant Twitch, promising less content moderation and lower fees for streamers.

The loose moderation means homophobic and racist language are commonplace, and parts of the site have developed an extreme right-wing culture.

Imagine a Venn diagram with circles labelled “gaming”, “gambling”, “livestreaming”, “right-wing politics”, “free-speech absolutism”, and “cryptocurrency”. Right in the middle, where all the circles overlap, is where we find Kick.

The quest for attention

Livestreamers on Kick, Twitch and elsewhere are constantly competing for attention and viewers. There is much discussion of the current “meta” – the Most Effective Tactic Available for drawing eyeballs and donations.

Sometimes the meta might involve relentlessly playing a single videogame. At other times it might be playing a mix of games, or introducing other content.

For a while the “hot tub meta” saw scantily-clad streamers playing video games while sitting in, of course, a hot tub.

Streamers sometimes also stage attention-grabbing stunts. In 2023, Twitch streamer Kai Cenat hosted a giveaway in New York which drew thousands of eager fans before devolving into a riot with dozens arrested by police.

The quest for novelty has led streamers to rediscover old forms such as game shows, too.

Entertainment in which people enjoy watching others suffer, take risks, or endure danger, is also nothing new. We might think about the pain and embarrassment played for laughs in Jackass, or more recently streamers gambling away millions of dollars live.

While the events surrounding Jean Pormanove’s death remain murky, lawyers for his co-streamers have said all apparent violence in their videos was scripted and staged – a kind of edgy entertainment, rather than reality.

What now?

It’s hard to say what’s ahead for Kick. The platform prides itself on being less regulated than Twitch in terms of content moderation.

Kick seems unlikely to introduce new rules for content unless forced. At present Kick does use some rudimentary content limiting systems, such as a popup on gambling channels asking viewers if they are 18 or over. (Clicking “yes” takes you through.)

Government regulations may have some effect. However, such regulations typically rely on the threat of blocking access to a website from a certain country – which can easily be circumvented by means of a virtual private network (VPN).

Much may depend on how much attention this incident receives. High-profile tragedies such as mass shootings can provoke cultural and legal change – but whether this is one of them remains to be seen.

Mark R Johnson recently received funding from the New South Wales Office of Responsible Gambling for a study into live streaming gambling practices.

– ref. What is Kick, the platform that livestreamed a man’s death this week? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-kick-the-platform-that-livestreamed-a-mans-death-this-week-263614

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ran Porat, Affiliate Researcher, The Australian Centre for Jewish Civilisation, Monash University

As the longest-serving Israeli prime minister (17 years), Benjamin Netanyahu is famous for his political wizardry and survival skills. But he is also a highly controversial figure with questionable moral standards and legacy.

His latest term in office, beginning in late 2022, has been particularly challenging, thanks to the far-right radical elements of his governing coalition and the unprecedented national disaster Israel experienced at the hands of Hamas on October 7 2023.

Yet, Netanyahu has managed to neutralise almost all immediate domestic threats to his power. At times, he has done this by manoeuvring rivals and partners into postponing moves that could topple his government. Other times, he has reshuffled his Likud Party ranks or realigned with bitter foes.

Netanyahu is also facing increased criticism from the Israeli public, with hundreds of thousands of people taking part in marches in support of a hostage deal, as well as from former senior politicians and ex-security officials.

And he has clashed with Eyal Zamir, the Israel Defence Force’s (IDF) chief of staff, who argued against the plan to expand the war into Gaza City. Zamir received clear messages to fold or resign, and chose to stay.

Yet, Netanyahu chooses to ignore all of this noise, sending his entourage and loyalists to attack anyone with dissenting views. This week’s spray at Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is just one example.

As a long term political survivor, he does all of this with an eye on the next Israeli elections, due at the end of 2026.

Propping up his far-right coalition

Over the past two and a half years, Israel has faced unprecedented crises that have left society deeply divided.

Under Netanyahu’s leadership, the government introduced a highly controversial judicial reform plan in early 2023, clashing with the Supreme Court and attorney general. This resulted in mass street protests against it.

Then came the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, which triggered an ongoing multi-front war with severe long-term social, economic and humanitarian consequences.

Netanyahu has claimed credit for successes during this time, such as the 12-day war against Iran in June, while deflecting responsibility for any failures.

Though stretched in many directions, Netanyahu is at his best in such conditions, pitting the conflicting sides around him against each other and playing them.

His coalition relies on hard-right partners, especially National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Despite the massive protests to agree to a hostage deal and international demands to end the war, Netanyahu has chosen to prioritise ensuring the stability of his coalition.

He has acceded to Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s demands to reject ceasefire agreements with Hamas, and instead ordered increased military action against the terrorist group to try to achieve what he has called a “total victory”.

Netanyahu has also indulged Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s talk of resettling Gaza and has enabled their moves to gradually expand Israeli settlements deeper into the West Bank and block any geographically feasible Palestinian state.

Proving Henry Kissinger’s famous observation that “Israel has no foreign policy, only domestic politics,” Netanyahu has also angrily rebuked the wave of Western countries recognising, or preparing to recognise, a Palestinian state.

His defiant letters to French President Emmanuel Macron and social media outbursts about Albanese are aimed less at diplomacy and more at cultivating his image as “a strong leader for Israel” among his base.

Supported by the Trump administration’s sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC), Netanayhu has also felt confident attacking it for issuing warrants against him.

Neutralising challenges from ultra-religious parties

The government’s biggest domestic challenge has been passing a draft law addressing the decades-long exemption of tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men from army service.

Following a Supreme Court ruling that the previous exemptions could not continue, religious parties in Netanyahu’s coalition demanded a bill to formally exempt the men from army service or they would bring down the government.

In response, Netanyahu enticed old rival Gideon Sa’ar from the opposition into joining his government, shoring up the coalition’s previously tiny majority.

Since then, he has bought time through broken promises, successfully persuading the ultra-Orthodox parties to wait until parliament’s return in October of this year. Meanwhile, he replaced Yuli Edelstein, the committee chair who had sought a strong bill with personal sanctions for draft evaders, with a more pliant loyalist, Boaz Bismuth.

Eyes on re-election

Now Netanyahu has his eye on the next general elections, officially set for late 2026 — though he would prefer they take place before the third anniversary of the October 7 attacks.

For two years, polls have consistently predicted his defeat. As such, he is working to reshape his image. He wants Israelis to forget his central role in the October 7 catastrophe, as well as the questions surrounding the war’s management.

He also hopes to continue diverting attention from his ongoing trial on bribery and breach of trust charges.

But Netanyahu faces a dramatic dilemma over the war. On the one hand, he may decide to sign a ceasefire deal with Hamas and secure the release of the hostages. This would win the cheers of most Israelis, but risk the loss of his government, given the far-right ministers’ threats to dissolve the coalition if he accepts any deal without fully conquering the strip.

On the other hand, he could proceed with the military operation in Gaza City, which may well result in the killing of the remaining hostages – either by Hamas or as a consequence of IDF attacks.

A third option would be to continue negotiations while escalating preparations for the attack, in the hope of achieving a better deal. We will soon know what direction he will take – and what it will mean for his political future.

Ran Porat is a research associate at The Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) and Research Fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Reichman University, Herzliya, Israel. He is affiliated with Australian Centre for Jewish Civilization, Monash University. He is also a former IDF military intelligence officer.

– ref. With eyes on re-election, Netanyahu’s fights with world leaders aim to distract from many political problems – https://theconversation.com/with-eyes-on-re-election-netanyahus-fights-with-world-leaders-aim-to-distract-from-many-political-problems-263523

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Victorian and Queensland state Resolve polls both show Labor rebounding from big deficits to now lead. In Tasmania, Josh Willie from the left faction replaces Dean Winter as Labor leader.

A Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the federal July and August Resolve polls from a sample more than 1,000, gave the Coalition 33% of the primary vote (down eight since March), Labor 32% (up eight), the Greens 12% (down two), independents 9% (down five) and others 13% (up six).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls, but The Poll Bludger estimated a Labor lead by about 53–47. Labor had been far behind in March.

Despite the big gain for Labor on voting intentions, Liberal leader Brad Battin led Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan by 32–25 as preferred premier (36–23 in March). This measure normally favours the incumbent more than voting intentions. Battin’s lead may indicate that Labor’s recovery is mostly due to the federal election result.

The Age’s article said Labor’s primary vote was 30% in July, before Allan announced her working from home policy, and it improved to 34% in August. A national Resolve poll had voters supporting working from home at least two days a week by 64–17. Allan’s net likeability surged 11 points, but is still at -21.

This poll agrees with late June Newspoll and Redbridge polls in giving Labor a lead in Victoria. The next Victorian state election is not due until November 2026.

While Labor has rebounded, they could fall back if voters focus more on state issues or if federal Labor’s popularity subsides. By the next election, Labor will have governed Victoria for the last 12 years, and 23 of the last 27 years, so the Liberals should benefit from an “it’s time” factor. However, the Liberals have their own problems with internal divisions.

Labor also rebounds in Queensland

A Queensland state Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted in July and August from a sample of 869, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34% of the primary vote (down 11 since the January to April Resolve poll), Labor 32% (up ten), the Greens 10% (down two), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 8% (up one) and others 7% (up one).

Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated there would be a very narrow Labor lead after preferences.

LNP premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability was up two points to +20, as this was question last asked before the LNP won the October 2024 election. Labor leader Steven Miles, who was premier before the election, improved his net likeability 12 points to -1. Crisafulli led by 40–25 as preferred premier (44–22 in January to April).

Unlike Victoria, other recent Queesland polls disagree with Resolve. Early July Queensland polls from Redbridge and DemosAU gave the LNP a 55–45 or 56–44 lead.

New Tasmanian Labor leader

On Tuesday, Labor failed to gain support for its no-confidence motion in the Tasmanian Liberal government from any non-Labor MP, despite the five Greens and four of six others being left-leaning. With Labor losing the July 19 election, the party leadership was spilled.

On Wednesday, Josh Willie from the left faction replaced Dean Winter as Tasmanian Labor leader after a long meeting of Labor’s 10 state MPs. Officially this was unanimous to avoid a membership ballot, with Winter stepping aside. The ABC said many MPs wanted Winter to remain leader, but party members would have likely strongly favoured Willie.

If Labor wants to return to government soon, Willie will need to repair Labor’s relationship with the Greens and left-leaning independents. Labor’s last period in government finished in 2014.

Additional federal Resolve questions

I previously covered the August 11–16 federal Resolve poll that gave Labor a 59–41 lead. In additional questions, respondents supported a legislated right to work from home at least two days a week by 64–17 if an employee’s job allows this. By 66–13, respondents supported a four-day week if an employee did the same work they would have over five days.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor rebounds to leads in Victorian and Queensland Resolve polls – https://theconversation.com/labor-rebounds-to-leads-in-victorian-and-queensland-resolve-polls-263527

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Cull, Associate Professor of Accounting and Financial Planning, Western Sydney University

Every February and August, business news sites are full of headlines about company reports and “earnings season”.

That’s because in Australia, most companies have a reporting period ending June 30 – the end of the financial year – meaning they will release their full-year results in August and half-year results in February.

Share prices can move dramatically depending on the company’s performance or its comments about the outlook.

If you’re new to investing and want to understand some of those results by reading company financial statements, here’s where to start.

What is a company financial statement?

Company financial statements show what a business owns, owes, earns and spends. It is like an annual health check-up for a business, written in numbers.

Company financial statements are prepared in accordance with Australian Accounting Standards.

Most listed companies publish their financial statements on their company website, usually in an investor or annual reports section. They are free to access. They are also published on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) website.

What to read first

If you’re new to financial statements, start with the big picture before diving into the numbers.

First, look for the trading update in the half-year report or chief executive’s letter at the beginning of the full-year report. This explains the company’s performance in plain language and will discuss the results for different segments of the business.

You can then look at the statement of profit or loss, which shows the profit or loss for the period.

Revenue is what they have earned – but that’s not counting any costs.

Net profit after tax (known as NPAT) shows total income minus expenses and how much profit is available to shareholders after tax is paid. This is the key measure used in reporting season news stories.

Another term you might run into is EBIT (earnings before interest and tax). EBIT shows profit from core operations before financing costs and tax are taken out. So it is considered a measure of underlying profitability.

Earnings per share (EPS) shows the portion of a company’s profit attributed to each ordinary share in the company.

A closer look at the numbers

After getting a sense of the big picture, the statement of financial position tells you what the company owns and owes.

What percentage of the total assets of the company is made up of liabilities – what the company owes?

Note that “current” assets and liabilities are expected to be converted to cash, or due for payment within 12 months. A company should have enough current assets to pay for its current liabilities.

Total assets less total liabilities equals the total equity: the shareholders’ stake in the company. A negative figure means the company owes more than what the assets are worth. That’s why this statement is often called the balance sheet.

What’s the difference between cash and profit?

Cash and profit are not the same thing. Revenue and expenses are recorded in the reporting period they occur, not when the cash is actually paid or received.

It is possible for a company to show a healthy profit, but have poor cash flow – or the other way around.

For example, a company sells to thousands of new customers in June on credit. Sales are recorded in June, boosting profit. But if the customers don’t pay quickly, there’s no increase in cash.

The cash flow statement shows the cash inflows and outflows of a company, including how much is paid to investors as dividends.

Expectations are the key

Financial markets always look to price in the future, today.

If a company’s profit result is close to market expectations, there may not be a large share price reaction. If it beats expectations, the shares may jump. Likewise, a profit miss will see the share price punished.

But what the company says about its outlook for the coming period is where the greatest chance lies for a surprise that is above or below market expectations. And that can have a big impact on the share price.

To understand a company’s results, context is important. It’s worth reading media coverage from reputable outlets such as The Australian Financial Review (if you don’t have a subscription, try for free access via your local library) and ASX updates.

What are some positive signs to look for?

Look for:

• consistent growth in revenue, profit, cash flow

• more assets than liabilities, with debt at a manageable level

• positive operating cash flow.

You should also consider industry and market trends, management quality, and competitive pressures.

What are some warning signs to watch for?

In its day-to-day operations, keep an eye out for falling revenues and low profit or an outright loss. Sometimes a one-off gain, such as from an asset sale, can prop up results.

Look out for current liabilities higher than current assets, or frequent changes in auditors or senior management.

Following these steps for reading financial statements can help investors to make more informed decisions. A registered financial adviser can provide you with investment advice.

This article is part of The Conversation’s “Business Basics” series, where we ask experts to discuss key concepts in business, economics and finance.

Disclaimer: This article provides general information only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is not intended as financial advice. All investments carry risk.

Michelle Cull is a member of CPA Australia, the Financial Advice Association Australia and President Elect of the Academy of Financial Services in the United States. Michelle is an academic member of UniSuper’s Consultative Committee and a member of the Financial Expert Advisory Panel for Ecstra Foundation. Michelle co-founded the Western Sydney University Tax Clinic which has received funding from the Australian Taxation Office as part of the National Tax Clinic Program.

Ushi Ghoorah serves on the Australian Accounting Standards Board (AASB) Standards Advisory Panel and is the Hon Treasurer and an Executive Member of the Australia and New Zealand Third Sector Research (ANZTSR) association. She is Chair of the AFAANZ Public Sector and Not-for-Profit Special Interest Group and a board member of the CPA NSW NFP Committee. Ushi has been the Chief Investigator on three AASB-funded research projects related to service performance reporting and the connectivity of financial and non-financial information in the not-for-profit sector.

– ref. What is a company financial statement? How can it help you spot good or bad investments? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-company-financial-statement-how-can-it-help-you-spot-good-or-bad-investments-263051

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Prevett, PhD Candidate, Flinders University

Imagine serving your country overseas, returning home and feeling unwelcome in the very place meant to support you.

That’s what happened to a 44-year-old Australian Army officer who attended a local Returned and Services League (RSL) lunch while on leave.

She recalls:

One of the older men catcalled me – when I raised it with the president, he dismissed it as “boys will be boys”. As a still-serving commissioned officer, it was deeply upsetting. I never returned.

Her story is far from unique.

Our research from the Open Door Initiative at Flinders University reveals many women feel unwelcome in RSL spaces. Some leave. Others never join.

Women describe subtle but persistent exclusion. One said:

It’s not for younger vets, especially those who still work or have a family.

Another nicknamed her local RSL, dominated by older male veterans from the Vietnam War era, a “Vietnam veteran club”, closed off to women and younger members. There she found walls lined with portraits of men in uniform, sexist jokes left unchallenged, and questions about the legitimacy of women veterans’ medals.

The RSL’s recent struggles

After years of falling membership and sub-branch closures, the RSL is at a crossroads.

Founded in 1916 to support soldiers returning from the first world war, it offered camaraderie, assistance and a way back into civilian life. Today, 1,095 RSL sub-branches remain, barely half the number from its peak in 1946.

Known for mid-week lunches, cheap drinks and Anzac Day services, the organisation was built by men, for men – a culture that still shapes how many sub-branches look, feel and operate.

Fewer than 10% of the veteran population in some states choose to join their local RSL. In many branches nationally, non-veteran members now outnumber those who have served.

Yet many veteran men still resist making space for women or younger veterans. One male interviewee told us bluntly: “I don’t think we should change our traditions to accommodate [these] veterans”.

Sometimes exclusion is more direct.

Sarah Case, a former sub-branch president in Queensland, recalled being labelled “a real bitch” by male branch members, adding:

It’s typical of the experience of being a woman, a woman with a brain who’s prepared to stand up for herself.

Deborah Langford, another woman veteran on a sub-branch committee in regional Victoria said:

I’m here but I’m not heard.

Deeper issues

These issues shouldn’t surprise. The RSL draws its members from the Australian Defence Force, where women have long reported sexism, harassment and inappropriate behaviour.

Media reporting continues to highlight how entrenched these problems remain. It’s no surprise those dynamics often carry over into veteran spaces.

Read more:
‘Survival sex’, ‘mob justice’ and more: the first independent study of abuse in the Australian Defence Force is damning

Many RSL branches feel frozen in time: beers, bingo and military banter. But younger veterans, especially women, are juggling work, families and the long-term impacts of service, including trauma. They need safe, inclusive spaces and real support.

For women who have served, especially those who experienced harassment or assault during service, traditional RSL environments can feel unsafe.

One veteran said:

Going into an RSL space where there are older male veterans can be challenging. Feeling safe is really important.

Small victories and further opportunities

Some branches are starting to shift and even small changes can have a real impact.

One woman veteran in Queensland described the support she received from her state branch as “faultless”, though she said it was only possible because she was supported by one of the few women advocates on staff.

At a Queensland sub-branch, Melissa Bishop, a veteran and newly appointed committee member, fought to move meetings to weekends so people with jobs and families could take part.

One woman veteran described it as “the first time I’d felt like someone had thought about veterans like me.”

These are modest, hard-won changes, but scattered progress alone won’t undo generations of exclusion.

Last year, the Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide recommended creating a national body to better govern the veterans’ non-profit sector.

This presents a real opportunity to modernise veteran support. But without a strong focus on gender inclusion and cultural reform from the start, history may repeat, entrenching the same exclusions that have kept so many women veterans on the margins for decades.

Women are not asking for special treatment. They are asking for veteran spaces that recognise their service, value their contributions and meet their needs.

That means flexible programs, trauma-informed care, peer support and family-friendly events.

The RSL now faces a defining choice: cling to outdated ideas or evolve into a space where all who have served feel they belong.

Ben Wadham receives funding from DVA and the Australian Research Council. He is vice president of the Defence Force Welfare Association – SA (DFWA-SA).

Andrew Prevett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘One of the older men catcalled me’: new research reveals the RSL’s woman problem – https://theconversation.com/one-of-the-older-men-catcalled-me-new-research-reveals-the-rsls-woman-problem-262613

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Thompson, Lecturer in Theatre, Australian Catholic University

There’s a pretty funny “in joke” in the opening scenes of the new Australian film Kangaroo Island.

Shortly after we meet Lou Wells (played by Rebecca Breeds) – an ex-pat Australian actor trying to make her Hollywood dream come true in Los Angeles – we learn her only real success to date has been playing a dubious character in a popular TV soap drama.

The joke, in case you missed it, is that Breed’s real-life launching pad was Home & Away. Although, if her performance in this film (along with her lead role in the 2021 series Clarice) is anything to go by, her career is on a much more successful trajectory than the train-wreck character of Lou Wells.

Home calling

After what appears to be a drunken one-night stand (not the first, we suspect) Lou gets a message from her dad Rory (Erik Thomson). He wants her to come home, and is so adamant he has even sent her the plane ticket.

At first, Lou appears to have no intention of giving up on her dream – and no intention of using the ticket.

However, as the viewer, you know she will get on that plane – and you suspect there’s a serious reason for Rory wanting his daughter to come home so suddenly.

This is the beginning of what turns out to be one of the many strengths of Sally Gifford’s first screenplay. It’s easy to become disinterested in a film when the telegraphed plot plays out the way you think it will. After all, why care about the story if you’re already ahead of it?

But Gifford and first time director Timothy David manage to sidestep this problem. They let you guess what’s going to happen, yet still surprise you when the inevitable unfolds – drawing you further into the story in a satisfying way.

An excellent island casting

Home for Lou, as you might have guessed, is on Kangaroo Island – a small paradise off the coast of South Australia that’s also home to an amazing array of wildlife, nature reserves and the Flinders Chase National Park.

Against this backdrop we meet the rest of Lou’s family: her dad Rory, her sister Freya (Adelaide Clemens), Freya’s husband Joel (Ben Roberts), their kids Teddy and Alby (Bodhi and Forest Palmer), Aunt Rose (Julie Wood), and Lou’s best friend Todd (Louis Henbest). This impressive ensemble cast believably portrays both the bonds and tensions that make for a compelling family picture.

The other very good piece of casting is Kangaroo Island itself. There is never a sense that it’s there just for its postcard tourism value (although it’s hard to not want to visit once you’ve seen it through cinematographer Ian McCarroll’s lens).

Rather, you can feel the deep connection between humans and nature in the island, as well as its vulnerability to exploitation in the wrong hands.

The film has strong themes of death, grief, jealousy, betrayal and spirituality, which belie its often very light comic touch. Gifford and David confidently navigate between the serious and the humorous without running aground on moments that are too dark, or too flippant.

The humour will be relatable to anyone who doesn’t have a perfect family, or anyone who loves their family despite its imperfections (in other words, everyone).

One running gag about some lost luggage is so well peppered it’s hard to not laugh out loud when it finally reaches its punchline – albeit at the dramatic high point of the story.

A dramatically flat moment

If I were to pick one point of weakness in the film, it would be Freya’s long monologue that takes place by Lou’s beside while she’s sleeping.

Overall, Gifford’s screenplay deftly handles both the siblings’ present-day story and backstory, in a way that helps us understanding the subtle family dynamics.

So it’s jarring when this mostly static monologue, full of exposition, is delivered as though trying to cover all the points that haven’t yet been explained, in one efficient but dramatically flat moment.

This quibble aside, Kangaroo Island is a highly enjoyable and engaging film that lets its deeply emotional aspects sneak up on you. Even as you see them coming, they arrive fresh and surprising.

Kangaroo Island is in cinemas now.

Chris Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Kangaroo Island is a quietly powerful Australian debut that explores family, grief and belonging – https://theconversation.com/kangaroo-island-is-a-quietly-powerful-australian-debut-that-explores-family-grief-and-belonging-261174

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ritu Trivedi, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Health Sciences, University of Sydney

About one in three Australian adults have hypertension, or high blood pressure.

High blood pressure is a leading contributor to preventable disability and early death because – particularly when it’s not well controlled – it increases the risk of developing conditions including heart disease, stroke, kidney disease and dementia.

Doctors are increasingly using blood pressure measurements taken at home to guide decisions about managing hypertension, such as whether you have hypertension in the first place, and whether you need to start or change medications. These readings can complement measurements taken in a doctor’s office and can be done more often.

Notably, home blood pressure measurements also reduce the “white coat” effect, which refers to someone’s blood pressure being high due to anxiety associated with a doctor’s office or medical environment. For this reason your doctor may ask you to measure your blood pressure at home to confirm whether it’s high or not.

For people who may have been advised to measure their blood pressure at home, having a device with a correctly sized cuff is essential to obtain accurate readings.

But in a new study, we’ve found many people could be using cuffs that don’t fit their arm properly.

Why is cuff size important?

Home blood pressure devices are usually sold with a single cuff size – either standard or a larger one, sometimes called “wide-range”.

But having the wrong cuff size affects the accuracy of the blood pressure reading.

If the cuff is too small, systolic blood pressure (the top number in a blood pressure reading, which denotes the pressure in your arteries when the heart pumps blood) will be overestimated. Conversely, if the cuff is too big, systolic blood pressure will be underestimated. The worse the cuff fits, the greater the measurement error is likely to be.

If your doctor makes decisions about your blood pressure based on inaccurate data, it could mean missing out on treatment to reduce your blood pressure when it’s needed, or starting treatment when it’s not needed.

Our study

In our analysis, we estimated the arm sizes of 18.7 million Australian adults based on data from the National Health Survey for 2017–18. We estimated upper-arm circumference ranged from 20 to 62 centimetres, with an average of 32cm.

We then categorised these arm sizes to see how many would fit common home blood pressure cuffs: standard (22 to 32cm) and wide-range (22 to 42cm).

About 9 million people – 48% of Australian adults – had arms too big for the standard cuff size. And about 700,000 people (roughly 3.7% of Australian adults) had arms larger than 42cm, which means both the standard and wide-range cuff sizes could be too small. Only a very small number had arms that would be too small for both cuff sizes.

We calculated that, among adults reported to have hypertension in 2018, the standard cuff size would be unsuitable in about 60% of people, while both the standard and wide-range cuff size would be unsuitable in about 6%.

The main limitation of our study is that we estimated arm sizes, because a measurement of arm size wasn’t available in the survey data. This estimate was based on an equation developed from a group of people in the United States relatively similar to the Australian population.

It’s possible some of our estimates may not be completely accurate, affecting our results. That said, research in the US has produced broadly similar findings, indicating 6.4% of adults would have arms too big for the wide-range cuff size.

Read more:
Many people don’t measure their blood pressure properly at home – here’s how to get accurate readings

How to choose the right device for you

You can measure the size of your arm at home by wrapping a measuring tape around the half-way point of your upper arm. This is roughly where your bicep is.

When choosing a home blood pressure monitor, the cuff size range is often reported on the cuff itself, on the box, or in the product description online. Some cuffs also have markings which can be used to double check if it fits your arm.

It’s best to use the cuff that came with your device. If you use a different cuff, even one that says it is compatible with many devices, it may not give a correct reading. Home blood pressure devices are tested to work accurately with the specific cuffs they come with, so it’s not clear how well other cuffs would work with your device.

If you can’t find a cuff that fits, many manufacturers have a range of different devices, so contacting them to see if they have other options is a good place to start. A wrist cuff device is an option but is only recommended when blood pressure can’t be measured on the upper arm.

Finally, ensure the device you choose is validated, meaning it has passed accuracy testing in a broad sample of people using a standard process. You can search for the device manufacturer name and model number on lists of validated devices compiled by the independent international organisation STRIDE BP.

If you are unsure about the accuracy of your home blood pressure device, you can take it to your doctor to see if the measurements are similar to the device they use in the clinic.

Ritu Trivedi is a member of the Australian National Hypertension Taskforce working groups for patient activation and engagement, and awareness and screening of high blood pressure.

Clara Chow is a NHMRC investigator grant recipient and is an investigator on current MRFF and NHMRC grants. She is a member of the WSLHD Board & National Heart Foundation Board, Australian National Hypertension Taskforce, has previously received grants from NSW Health, Australian Digital Health Agency, Google. She has also previously received speakers’ fees from several organisations including Novartis, Limbic, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Amgen, AbbVie.
The George Institute has submitted patent applications with respect to low fixed-dose combination products for the treatment of cardiovascular and cardiometabolic disease. Professors Rodgers and Chow are listed as inventors. Both do not have direct financial interests in these patent applications or investments.

Dean Picone receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, NSW Government Office of Health and Medical Research and is an investigator on a current MRFF grant. He a member of the Hypertension Australia Clinical Council, member of American Heart Association Hypertension Professional/Public Education & Publications Committee and Chair of International Society of Hypertension New Investigator Committee. He has previously received funding from the National Heart Foundation of Australia and acted as a consultant on blood pressure monitoring to the Pan American Health Organisation and United States Centers for Disease Control.

– ref. Do you take your own blood pressure at home? Here’s how to choose the device that fits your arm best – https://theconversation.com/do-you-take-your-own-blood-pressure-at-home-heres-how-to-choose-the-device-that-fits-your-arm-best-262608

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Orsola De Marco, Professor of Astrophysics, Macquarie University

Astronomers have glimpsed the inner structure of a dying star in a rare kind of cosmic explosion called an “extremely stripped supernova”.

In a paper published today in Nature, Steve Schulze of Northwestern University in the United States and colleagues describe the supernova 2021yfj and a thick shell of gas surrounding it.

Their findings support our existing theories of what happens inside massive stars at the end of their lives – and how they have shaped the building blocks of the universe we see today.

How stars make the elements

Stars are powered by nuclear fusion – a process in which lighter atoms are squished together into heavier ones, releasing energy.

Fusion happens in stages over the star’s life. In a series of cycles, first hydrogen (the lightest element) is fused into helium, followed by the formation of heavier elements such as carbon. The most massive stars continue on to neon, oxygen, silicon and finally iron.

Each burning cycle is faster than the previous one. The hydrogen cycle can last for millions of years, while the silicon cycle is over in a matter of days.

As the core of a massive star keeps burning, the gas outside the core acquires a layered structure, where successive layers record the composition of the progression of burning cycles.

While all this is playing out in the star’s core, the star is also shedding gas from its surface, carried out into space by the stellar wind. Each fusion cycle creates an expanding shell of gas containing a different mix of elements.

Core collapse

What happens to a massive star when its core is full of iron? The great pressure and temperature will make the iron fuse, but unlike the fusion of lighter elements, this process absorbs energy instead of releasing it.

The release of energy from fusion is what has been holding the star up against the force of gravity – so now the iron core will collapse. Depending on how big it is to start with, the collapsed core will become a neutron star or a black hole.

The process of collapse creates a “bounce”, which sends energy and matter flying outwards. This is called a core-collapse supernova explosion.

The explosion lights up the layers of gas shed from the star earlier, allowing us to see what they are made of. In all known supernovae until now, this material was either the hydrogen, the helium or the carbon layer, produced in the first two nuclear burning cycles.

The inner layers (the neon, oxygen and silicon layers) are all produced in a mere few hundred years before the star explodes, which means they don’t have time to travel out far from the star.

An explosive mystery

But that’s what makes the new supernova SN2021yfj so interesting. Schulze and colleagues found the material outside the star came from the silicon layer, the last layer just above the iron core, which forms on a timescale of a few months.

The stellar wind must have expelled all the layers right down to the silicon one before the explosion occurred. Astronomers don’t understand how a stellar wind could be powerful enough to do this.

The most plausible scenario is a second star was involved. If another star were orbiting the one that exploded, its gravity might have rapidly pulled out the deep silicon layer.

Exploding stars made the universe what it is today

Whatever the explanation, this view deep inside the star has confirmed our theories of the cycles of nuclear fusion inside massive stars.

Why is this important? Because stars are where all the elements come from.

Carbon and nitrogen are manufactured primarily by lower mass stars, similar to our own Sun. Some heavy elements such as gold are manufactured in the exotic environments of colliding and merging neutron stars.

However, oxygen and other elements such as neon, magnesium and sulfur mainly come from core-collapse supernovae.

We are what we are because of the inner workings of stars. The constant production of elements in stars causes the universe to change continuously. Stars and planets formed later are very different from those formed in earlier times.

When the universe was younger it had much less in the way of “interesting” elements. Everything worked somewhat differently: stars burned hotter and faster and planets may have formed less, differently, or not at all.

How much supernovae explode and just what they eject into interstellar space is a critical question in figuring out why our Universe and our world are the way they are.

Orsola De Marco received funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated (non-executive director of the Board) with Astronomy Australia Ltd. a not-for-profit company serving Australian astronomy.

– ref. Astronomers have glimpsed the core of a dying star – confirming theories of how atoms are made – https://theconversation.com/astronomers-have-glimpsed-the-core-of-a-dying-star-confirming-theories-of-how-atoms-are-made-263339

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University

The biggest lie those who create and spread misinformation perpetrate is that they want you to think for yourself. They warn their target audience not to be “sheep” and not to let themselves be told what to believe by “mainstream” voices, the “deep state” or other bogey men.

But in a classic case of misdirection, at the same time they warn you about this, they deploy a range of manipulative tricks to ensure you don’t actually think clearly or independently.

One of these tactics is to seduce you into subscribing to “logical fallacies”. These are flawed patterns of reasoning that sound convincing but lead to false or misleading conclusions.

Logical fallacies are like optical illusions of thought: convincing on the surface, but ultimately an apparition. Like a magician who tries to convince you he really has pulled a rabbit from a hat, getting you to fall for logical fallacies is a sleight of hand that aims to trick you into believing something is true that isn’t.

But when you know how a magic trick works, it no longer fools you. If you recognise the most common logical fallacies and understand how they work, they very quickly lose their power. Once you can see behind the curtain, the illusion fades, and you begin to understand things as they really are.

Here are ten of the most common ones you need to be on the lookout for when it comes to vaccine misinformation.

1. Appeal to nature fallacy

Typical claim:

Vaccines are unnatural, so they must be bad.

Fallacy: Assumes that natural is always better or safer, which is not logically or scientifically valid. Plenty of natural substances are very harmful or deadly, and plenty of man-made products, including many medicines, are life-saving.

2. Slippery slope fallacy

Typical claim:

If we allow vaccine mandates, next we’ll lose all medical freedom.

Fallacy: Assumes a minor or reasonable action will inevitably spiral into something more extreme and implausible. This is one of the easiest logical fallacies to spot and relies on stretching logic to its breaking point in order to provoke fear. Politicians particularly like this tactic.

3. Ad hominem fallacy

Typical claim:

You can’t trust that doctor, he’s obese and doesn’t know how to look after himself.

Fallacy: Attacks the person instead of engaging with their argument or evidence. This is usually the go-to strategy when one either has no evidence to back up what they are saying or doesn’t have any capacity to engage with the evidence.

4. False dichotomy fallacy

Typical claim:

You either trust vaccines blindly or you’re a free thinker.

Fallacy: Ignores the nuanced middle ground and oversimplifies the choices. Often this is a version of the “you’re either with us or against us” ploy. It frames the debate so that one option is clearly unreasonable, creating the false impression that the right choice is obvious.

5. Straw man fallacy

Typical claim:

Pro-vaccine people think vaccines are perfect and have no risks.

Fallacy: This may be the most relied upon tactic by those spreading vaccine misinformation. It relies on misrepresenting the evidence to make it easier to attack. It often involves a number of different tactics such as distorting, cherry picking or oversimplifying the evidence. RFK Jr is a big fan of this tactic.

6. Post hoc fallacy (false cause)

Typical claim:

My child got sick after a vaccine, so the vaccine caused it.

Fallacy: Confuses correlation with causation without considering other explanations. Just because two events occur at about the same time doesn’t mean one caused the other. The false belief that the MMR vaccine causes autism stems from a single fraudulent study that wrongly inferred causation from a mere correlation.

Read more:
If ‘correlation doesn’t imply causation’, how do scientists figure out why things happen?

7. Bandwagon fallacy (appeal to popularity)

Typical claim:

Millions of people are questioning vaccines so there must be something wrong.

Fallacy: Assumes that a widespread belief is equivalent to truth. This is also called the “illusory truth effect” and it’s one of the main reasons misinformation has such an influence on social media. When people find themselves in echo chambers where they are led to believe a view is commonly held, even when it is obviously untrue, they are more likely to believe it. Humans are wired up to follow the herd.

8. Anecdotal fallacy

Typical claim:

I know someone who got vaccinated and still got sick so vaccines can’t work.

Fallacy: Uses personal stories instead of statistical or scientific evidence. This is equivalent to the reference to the grandmother who smoked a pack of cigarettes a day and lived to be 100 years old. It’s often the go-to strategy when there is no evidence to support a claim. Apart from the fact these anecdotes are usually not verifiable, anecdotes are no substitute for rigorous scientific evidence.

9. Perfectionist fallacy

Typical claim:

Vaccines aren’t 100% safe and effective, so they are useless.

Fallacy: Rejects a good solution (vaccines) because it is not perfect. No medical intervention is 100% risk-free. Even something universally used like aspirin can have side effects, and so an extension of this logic is that every single therapeutic intervention is useless because it is not perfect, which is absurd.

10. Base rate fallacy

Typical claim:

More vaccinated people are getting sick, so vaccines don’t work.

Fallacy: In a highly vaccinated population, most people will be vaccinated and inevitably some vaccinated people will still get sick. While the absolute numbers of vaccinated people who get sick will outnumber those who did not get vaccinated and got sick, this is misleading as the proportion will be much smaller due to the sheer numbers of vaccinated individuals in the population.

In a nutshell

We live in a time where bad-faith actors are easily able to spread deliberate misinformation. Therefore, we all need to educate ourselves in the tactics and tricks used by these con artists, so we’re not fooled.

Being able to recognise how logical fallacies are used to make misleading arguments seem persuasive is one of the things we can do to protect ourselves. The good news is, once you understand the most commonly used logical fallacies, it’s harder be to fooled.

Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why bad arguments sound convincing: 10 tricks of logic that underpin vaccine myths – https://theconversation.com/why-bad-arguments-sound-convincing-10-tricks-of-logic-that-underpin-vaccine-myths-261778

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nerilie Abram, Chief Scientist, Australian Antarctic Division and Professor of Climate Science, Australian National University

Antarctica has long been seen as a remote, unchanging environment. Not any more.

The ice-covered continent and the surrounding Southern Ocean are undergoing abrupt and alarming changes. Sea ice is shrinking rapidly, the floating glaciers known as ice shelves are melting faster, the ice sheets carpeting the continent are approaching tipping points and vital ocean currents show signs of slowing down.

Published today in Nature, our new research shows these abrupt changes are already underway – and likely to significantly intensify in the future.

Several authors of this article have witnessed these startling changes during fieldwork on the ice. These changes spell bad news for wildlife, both iconic and lesser known. But the changes will reach much further. What’s happening in Antarctica right now will affect the world for generations to come, from rising sea levels to extreme changes in the climate system.

What is an abrupt change?

Scientists define an abrupt change as a climatic or environmental shift taking place much faster than expected.

What makes abrupt changes so concerning is they can amplify themselves. For example, melting sea ice allows oceans to warm more rapidly, which melts more sea ice. Once triggered, they can be difficult or even impossible to reverse on timescales meaningful to humans.

While it’s common to assume incremental warming will translate to gradual change, we’re seeing something very different in Antarctica. Over past decades, the Antarctic environment had a much more muted response overall to human-caused climate warming compared to the Arctic. But about a decade ago, abrupt changes began to occur.

Shrinking sea ice brings cascading change

Antarctica’s natural systems are tightly interwoven. When one system is thrown out of balance, it can trigger cascading effects in others.

Sea ice around Antarctica has been declining dramatically since 2014. The expanse of sea ice is now shrinking at double the rate of Arctic sea ice. We found these unfolding changes are unprecedented – far outside the natural variability of past centuries.

The implications are far reaching. Sea ice has a reflective, high-albedo surface which reflects heat back to space. When there’s less sea ice, more heat is absorbed by darker oceans. Emperor penguins and other species reliant on sea ice for habitat and breeding face real threats. Less sea ice also means Antarctica’s ice shelves are more exposed to waves.

Vital ocean currents are slowing

The melting of ice is actually slowing down the deep ocean circulation around Antarctica. This system of deep currents, known as the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, plays a critical role in regulating Earth’s climate by absorbing carbon dioxide and distributing heat.

In the northern hemisphere, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is facing a slowdown.

We’re now observing a similar risk in Southern Ocean currents. Changes to the Antarctic Overturning Circulation may unfold at twice the rate of the more famous North Atlantic counterpart.

A slowdown could reduce how much oxygen and carbon dioxide the ocean absorbs and leave vital nutrients at the seafloor. Less oxygen and fewer nutrients would have major consequences for marine ecosystems and climate regulation.

Melting giants

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet as well as some regions of East Antarctica are now losing ice and contributing to sea level rise. Ice loss has increased sixfold since the 1990s.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet alone has enough ice to raise global sea levels by more than five metres – and scientists warn we could be nearing the point where this ice sheet could collapse even without substantial further warming, though this might take centuries to millennia.

These enormous ice sheets represent the risk of a global tipping point. They contribute the greatest uncertainty to projections of future sea level rise because we don’t know just how quickly they could collapse.

Worldwide, at least 750 million people live in low-lying areas near the sea. Rising sea levels threaten coastal infrastructure and communities globally.

Wildlife and ecosystems under threat

Antarctica’s biological systems are also undergoing sudden shifts. Ecosystems both under the sea and on land are being reshaped by warming temperatures, unreliable ice conditions and human activity bringing pollution and the arrival of invasive species.

It’s essential to protect these ecosystems through the Antarctic Treaty, including creating protected areas of land and sea and restricting some human activities. But these conservation measures won’t be enough to ensure emperor penguins and leopard seals survive. That will require decisive global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Which future?

Antarctica is often seen as a symbol of isolation and permanence. But the continent is now changing with disturbing speed – much faster than scientists anticipated.

These abrupt changes stem largely from the extra heat trapped by decades of unchecked greenhouse gas emissions. The only way to avoid further abrupt changes is to slash emissions rapidly enough to hold warming as close to 1.5°C as possible.

Even if we achieve this, much change has already been set in motion. Governments, businesses and coastal communities must prepare for a future of abrupt change. What happens in Antarctica won’t stay there.

The stakes could not be higher. The choices made now will determine whether we face a future of worsening impacts and irreversible change or one of managed resilience to the changes already locked in.

Nerilie Abram received funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).

Ariaan Purich receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).

Felicity McCormack receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).

Jan Strugnell receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).

Matthew England receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).

– ref. From sea ice to ocean currents, Antarctica is now undergoing abrupt changes – and we’ll all feel them – https://theconversation.com/from-sea-ice-to-ocean-currents-antarctica-is-now-undergoing-abrupt-changes-and-well-all-feel-them-262615