Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Albert Palazzo, Adjunct Professor in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at UNSW Canberra, UNSW Sydney

If war breaks out someday between the United States and China, one of the major concerns for Australia is the impact on its trade.

Our trade routes are long and exposed. Every year, thousands of merchant ships — bulk carriers, tankers, container ships and other types — visit Australian ports to deliver imported goods and pick up exports for delivery at distant ports.

When a cargo ship of petroleum leaves the Persian Gulf for refining in East Asia, then sails for Australia, the total trip is approximately 20,000 kilometres. The ship passes through lonely stretches of sea and numerous choke points, such as the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia, often within range of missiles and other weapons.

Such attacks could come from Chinese ships in the event of a war, or as we’ve seen in the Middle East with the Houthi rebels, they could also come from militants seeking to disrupt global shipping.

Australia’s current defence strategy cites the security of our “sea lines of communication and maritime trade” as a priority. The aim is to prevent an adversary from cutting off critical supplies to our continent in a war.

To achieve this, the government has embarked on the lengthy process of expanding the Royal Australian Navy surface and sub-surface fleet, including the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines.

As I explain in my forthcoming book, The Big Fix: Rebuilding Australia’s National Security, the problem with the government’s maritime plan is that it is built on a deeply flawed foundation and cannot deliver what it promises.

A flawed maritime plan

Defence documents insist on a need for the Australian Defence Force to be able to project naval power far from Australia’s shores in order to protect the nation’s trade. The presence of these warships would ostensibly deter attacks on our vital shipping.

However, those who developed the maritime plan do not appear to have considered whether the merchant ships delivering this trade would continue to sail to Australia in the event of a war — presumably with China.

The reality is that Australia’s A$1.2 trillion of exports and imports are carried in ships owned by non-Australian companies, flying foreign flags and largely crewed by citizens of other countries.

Decisions about whether to continue sailing to Australia during a conflict would be made in overseas boardrooms and capitals. The Australian government has no leverage to force the owners of these ships to continue to service our continent. Australia’s national interests may well not be the paramount concern.

Nor does the Australian government have the option to turn to Australian-flagged vessels. Australia’s shipping list contains only a handful of domestically owned and flagged cargo ships available in case of war.

In fact, the biggest vessel (by length) that the government could take into service is the Spirit of Tasmania IV ferry.

If all goes according to schedule, at some point in the 2040s, Australia will have at most 26 surface warships and perhaps eight nuclear-powered submarines the navy hopes to acquire through the AUKUS deal.

Due to training and maintenance requirements, the total number of vessels available at any one time would be more on the order of ten.

In other words, the government’s future maritime plan — costing hundreds of billion dollars — may result in just ten available ships at any given time to protect the nation’s trade over thousands of kilometres.

What could work instead

Fortunately, Australia has other options for safeguarding its trade that don’t necessitate the building of warships.

Our first investment in security should be diplomatic. The government should prioritise its investment in diplomacy across the region to promote security, including trade security.

Regional countries are best placed to secure the waterways around Australia, particularly from the most likely future threat: Houthi-like militants.

The Australian government should also modernise its shipping regulations and include in the budget provisions for war-risk insurance. Such insurance could compensate owners for the potential loss of ships and cargoes as an inducement for them to sail to and from Australia during war.

The government must also encourage greater investment in our national resilience. Currently, the biggest risk during a conflict is an interruption to the nation’s liquid fuel supply. We must greatly expand our on-shore reserves of fossil fuels in the short term, while initiating a nation-building project to electrify the economy in the long term. Electrification would eliminate a considerable vulnerability to national security.

Read more:
Fuel shortages and bare pharmacies: we need to talk about what a possible war with China could look like

Additionally, the government should identify and subsidise vital industries, such as fertilisers and certain medicines, which are essential to the continued functioning of our society in the event of a war. This would reduce our reliance on imports of critical materials.

Lastly, Australian industries, with the government’s assistance, should further diversify their trading partners to reduce over-dependence on one or two main destinations.

Trade is undoubtedly important to Australia and the government is correct to protect it. But it is also true that not all security problems are best answered by the military.

This is particularly important since the size of our planned fleet is obviously insufficient for the enormous task it will face. Either Australia invests in impossibly large numbers of warships or it takes a different path.

The art of war requires a balance between the desired ends and the means to achieve them. This simple statement underpins the formation of all good strategy, which a state ignores at its peril.

Unfortunately, in the case of the nation’s maritime plan, the ends and means are seriously out of whack. Instead of setting itself up for failure, the government needs to put aside its ineffectual maritime plan and choose the means that do align with the ends. Only then will it be possible to protect Australia’s trade.

Albert Palazzo was the long-serving director of War Studies for the Australian Army.

– ref. Australia’s plan to protect its trade in war is flawed. We can’t do it with nuclear submarines – https://theconversation.com/australias-plan-to-protect-its-trade-in-war-is-flawed-we-cant-do-it-with-nuclear-submarines-256557

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria Maley, Senior Lecturer in Politics, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

Three and a half years ago, then-sex discrimination commissioner Kate Jenkins’ Set the Standard report was handed to federal parliament, commissioned after Brittany Higgins’ allegations of sexual assault in Parliament House, which had shocked the public and politicians alike. Since then, work has been underway to implement its 28 recommendations.

The report found unacceptable levels of sexual harassment, bullying and misconduct in parliamentary workplaces, and laid out a radical plan to create a standards regime. The plan would provide tools to deal with such conduct, and try to prevent it by changing the culture of parliament.

In 2025, parliament’s implementation of the Jenkins review is due to be evaluated by an external independent reviewer. Have the recommendations been implemented? What are the prospects for continued reform of conduct in the parliamentary workplace? Will the election of an historic number of women into parliament create pressure for further reform?

Action after the review

On February 8 2022, the first sitting day of federal parliament after the Jenkins review had been handed down, both houses of parliament made an historic statement of acknowledgement and apology to the victims of misconduct in its workplace. It stated:

We say sorry. […] This place and its members are committed to bringing about lasting and meaningful change to both culture and practice within our workplaces. We today declare our personal and collective commitment to make the changes required.

Parliamentarians committed to implement all 28 recommendations of the Jenkins review. A cross-party body was created to lead the implementation process.

Known as the Parliamentary Leadership Taskforce, it had members from both houses of parliament, ministers and legislators, Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and one independent parliamentarian. It worked hard for three years to design and put in place the rules and mechanisms laid out in the Jenkins review, before disbanding in September 2024.

The magnitude of the changes parliament had to make should not be understated. Among many ground-breaking reforms, it involved developing codes of conduct and a body to enforce them by investigating complaints about breaches of the code.

In February 2023, both houses of parliament agreed on codes of conduct. In October 2024, an Independent Parliamentary Standards Commission was established to receive complaints, investigate and make findings about misconduct. There are seven commissioners, appointed from outside parliament, who are lawyers, former public servants, tribunal members and ex-ombudsmen. For the first time, there will be external independent review of parliamentarians’ conduct.

An independent human resources body for the parliamentary workplace was also created, known as the Parliamentary Workplace Support Service. These are huge achievements and represent historic reforms.

In line with Jenkins’ recommendations, the taskforce committed to an external independent review of parliament’s implementation of the Jenkins report.

But has it been effective?

It is hard to evaluate new rules, systems and bodies that are in their infancy, but one part of the new standards architecture does not represent best practice. After the Independent Parliamentary Standards Commission has completed an investigation of a parliamentarian’s conduct, made findings and recommended sanctions, it will hand its report to the privileges committee in each house.

The privileges committees are made up of parliamentarians, almost exclusively members of the major parties. It is up to these committees to decide on any action to be taken. We won’t know if they depart from the commission’s recommendations, as standards commission reports are not public.

In the United Kingdom House of Commons, which represents best practice in this area, independent investigation reports are handed to a parliamentary committee called the Committee on Standards. Half the members of that committee are MPs, but half are “lay members” – that is, appointed members of the community, including lawyers and HR professionals.

The House of Commons established its standards regime in 2018, and has reviewed and improved it over time. Lay members were placed on the committee because it was evident MPs found it difficult to judge the conduct of their peers and struggled to hold them accountable.

Unfortunately Australia’s new standards system leaves decisions in the hands of parliamentarians, without the corrective and robustness that members of the public would provide. Will the federal parliament continue to reform and reshape its arrangements if they prove not to be robust enough?

Ongoing leadership is needed if parliament is to continue to address conduct issues, drive culture change and refine and develop its new standards regime. Some believe the culture of parliament has improved since the Jenkins review. Others disagree.

There are still recommendations of the review that have not been addressed. These include developing a ten-year strategy to increase diversity in the workplace, establishing a health and wellbeing service in parliament, and introducing an alcohol policy. Now that the Parliamentary Leadership Taskforce has disbanded, who will continue to advance the reform process?

In October 2024, parliament decided to create a Parliamentary Joint Committee on Parliamentary Standards. Its functions include reviewing the operation of the new codes and the Independent Parliamentary Standards Commission.

This committee should play a leadership role on conduct and culture issues, but its membership is tightly restricted. The government dominates positions and all members must also be members of the privileges committees. Presiding officers are not permitted to sit on the committee, despite their important leadership roles and responsibilities in parliament. Crossbenchers and independent parliamentarians are largely locked out of the committee (only two positions are reserved for them), despite the fact they have often been the leading voices calling for culture change.

With the influx of many more women and new faces into the parliament after the election, there is an opportunity to press for continued reform and for membership of the joint committee to include diverse voices from across the parliament.

In 2021 Maria Maley worked as a consultant to the Jenkins Review.

– ref. Three years after the Jenkins report, there is still work to be done on improving parliament culture – https://theconversation.com/three-years-after-the-jenkins-report-there-is-still-work-to-be-done-on-improving-parliament-culture-257810

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Panos Karanikolas, Research officer, Melbourne Social Equity Institute, The University of Melbourne

In an emergency, police are often the first called to the scene. But they are rarely equipped to deal with complex mental health crises.

Following recent parliamentary inquiries and royal commissions there has been a push – led by researchers, advocates and some senior police officials – for a shift to a health-led and paramedic-first response.

South Australia is one of a number of states trialling a program based on a “co-responder” model. This means trained specialists accompany police to some mental health call-outs in the community.

So, how do co-responder programs work? And are they effective? Here’s what the evidence says.

The current situation

Mental health legislation in all states and territories gives police the power to use “reasonable force” to transport people who “appear to have a mental illness” to hospital to prevent harm.

In most cases, this involves police taking people experiencing mental health crises to hospital emergency departments, without help from mental health clinicians or paramedics.

Overburdened emergency departments have long wait times for mental health and are often inadequate at responding to people experiencing distress.

Those who need mental health support may not need a hospital stay.

One study found only one in five (23%) of those taken to emergency by police – usually after expressing intention to self-harm – were admitted.

The strain on police resources is also significant. For example, in New South Wales, police now respond to triple zero calls about mental health crises in the community every nine minutes (in Victoria it’s every ten).

Criminalising mental health

The mere presence of police alone can escalate already heightened emotional situations.

Police frequently lack training in mental health, with combative police culture and the militarisation of police training presenting significant problems.

Police often acknowledge they are ill-equipped to intervene in a mental health crisis.

Yet, about one in ten people who access mental health services have previously interacted with police.

These encounters can be risky and even deadly.

People who experience mental health issues are over-represented in incidents of police use of force and fatal shootings.

Police involvement can also lead to the criminalisation of people with mental health issues and disability, as they are more likely to be issued with charges and fines or be arrested.

Yet the main reason police take people to hospital is for self-harm or suicidal distress, and most are not deemed to be of risk to others.

What do people with mental health issues want instead?

In our research, conducted in 2021–2022, we interviewed 20 people across Australia who’d had police intervene when they had a mental health crisis.

Those we spoke to often had multiple experiences of police call-outs over their lifetime.

They told us excessive use of force by police had traumatising and long-term effects. Many were subject to pepper spray, tasers, police dogs, batons, handcuffs and restraints, despite not being accused of committing criminal offences.

For example, Alex*, said:

I was having an anxiety attack, and they pepper sprayed me. I had bruises all over my hands from the handcuffs they put on really roughly, even though I wasn’t under arrest. Then they took me to hospital.

In our study, people with mental health issues said they would prefer an ambulance-led response wherever possible, without police attending at all.

They also wanted to be linked to therapeutic and community-based services, including mental health peer support, housing, disability support and family violence services.

What are co-responder programs?

Co-responder programs aim to de-escalate mental health incidents, reduce the number of emergency department presentations and link people experiencing mental health crises with services.

These programs, such as the one being trialled in South Australia, mean mental health clinicians (for example, social workers, counsellors or psychologists) attend some mental health incidents alongside police.

Peer-reviewed research shows these kinds of responses can be effective when compared to traditional police-led interventions.

An evaluation of a co-response program in Victoria found the mental health response was quicker and higher quality than when police attended alone.

The success of programs in the United States and Canada shows many mental health crises can safely managed without police involvement, for example by addressing issues such as homelessness and addiction with health workers, and reducing the number of arrests.

Limited by a lack of resources

While the evidence shows co-responder schemes are valued by people with lived experience, they are often limited by under-resourcing.

Co-responder programs are not universally available. Often, they do not operate after usual business hours or across regions.

There is also a lack of long-term evaluations of these programs. This means what we understand about their implementation, design and effectiveness over time can be mixed.

More broadly, the mental health sector is facing significant and ongoing labour shortages across Australia, posing another resourcing challenge.

How can responses to mental health crises be improved?

Last year, the final report from the Royal Commission into Victoria’s Mental Health System recommended paramedics should act as first responders in mental health crises wherever possible, instead of police, diverting triple zero calls to Ambulance Victoria.

However that reform has been delayed, with no indication of when it may be implemented.

A 2023 NSW parliamentary inquiry also remarked on the need to explore reducing police involvement.

Co-responder and ambluance-first models offer an improvement.

But our research suggests people with lived experience of mental health issues want more than ambulances replacing the police as crisis responders.

They need a mental health system that supports them and provides what they needed, when they need it: compassionate, timely and non-coercive responses.

*Name has been changed.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Panos Karanikolas is a member of the Victorian Mental Illness Awareness Council (VMIAC). He received funding for this research from the National Disability Research Partnership as part of a partnership with VMIAC.

Chris Maylea receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, and national and state legal aid commissions.

Hamilton Kennedy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Police aren’t properly trained for mental health crises – but they’re often the first responders. Here’s what works better – https://theconversation.com/police-arent-properly-trained-for-mental-health-crises-but-theyre-often-the-first-responders-heres-what-works-better-257641

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jaime Comber, Senior Research Consultant in Energy Futures, University of Technology Sydney

We all want homes that keep us warm in winter and cool in summer, without breaking the bank. However, Australian homes built before 2003 have a low average energy rating of 1.8 stars out of 10. This means they’re often uncomfortable to live in and expensive to run.

There’s a strong case for a “renovation wave” of home energy upgrades across Australia. Reducing the use of fossil gas and improving the energy efficiency of existing housing by nearly 50% is also central to achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

Energy-saving upgrades such as solar panels, batteries, insulation, draught-proofing and hot water heat pumps also reduce the cost of energy bills. So while there’s an upfront cost, upgrades can reduce household expenses in the long run.

We wanted to find out what’s holding people back from getting energy-saving upgrades. We surveyed 100 Australian households and interviewed 19 people about their experiences. Our new research revealed five major barriers that stop these upgrades from being accessible to most households. Suppliers, governments and community organisations can all help overcome these barriers.

1. Information about upgrades is confusing and overwhelming

Households told us the amount of information out there about energy saving upgrades is overwhelming and sometimes conflicting. There are many different types of upgrades and product choices, making it challenging to identify which options provide the best value and what to do first. People found it difficult to know what information and which suppliers to trust.

Households need clear information from a trusted source about what their homes need. Many governments internationally, such as Scotland, provide online resources and tools to provide tailored advice to help with this.

Energy upgrade programs run by neutral community organisations and councils can also help, such as Rewiring Australia’s Electrify 2515 or Geelong Sustainability’s Electric Homes Program. These programs use their expertise to vet suppliers and ensure households receive good deals and high quality products.

2. Homes need to engage multiple suppliers and tradespeople

Many households worked on their home gradually, one upgrade at a time. Each upgrade involved a labour-intensive process of researching products, selecting companies, getting quotes and managing the disruptions caused by the installation. One Sydney homeowner told us:

The process of needing both a plumber and an electrician to change to induction cooking was frustrating. [We had to] to coordinate availability times and appliance delivery.

Australians need companies that can do multiple upgrades at once, to simplify and streamline the process. In Ireland, the government helped stimulate a market for organisations that can cover all the upgrades needed by a household.

3. Households are losing opportunities for straightforward upgrades

Every year, Australians invest billions in home renovations. They spent more than A$3 billion in the December 2024 quarter alone.

One of the best times to improve your home is during major renovations or when old appliances, such as hot water systems, break down. If you’re already facing disruptions and need to spend money, it can be an easy and more cost-effective way to increase your home’s energy efficiency at the same time.

Yet our research found advice on energy-saving upgrades was rarely provided to people undertaking major renovations or emergency replacements unless they asked for it. Households needed to seek out builders, architects and tradespeople who specialised in sustainability to get advice on an energy-saving renovation.

Providing energy upgrades to homes should be a standard component of modern renovations. Otherwise, households are missing out on easy and more affordable opportunities to get these upgrades.

4. Many tradespeople lack knowledge of energy-saving upgrades

Our research found tradespeople are the most common point of contact for households. They can be a valuable source of information and advice to facilitate upgrades. However, many households reported difficulty finding tradespeople knowledgeable about – and willing to install – energy-saving upgrades.

Some upgrades, such as solar panels, require specialised workforces. Others, such as hot water heat pumps are usually installed by regular plumbers and electricians.

Some tradespeople lack the knowledge to advise on energy-saving upgrades or need training to install new technologies to a high standard. This situation leaves households vulnerable to misinformation, with a shortage of skilled workers to do their upgrades.

Tradespeople require increased support and incentives to make energy-saving measures part of their skill set. This is especially true in regional areas, where there are fewer products and workers available.

5. The costs are too high for many households

A final, significant barrier was the cost of home upgrades, which often caused households to drop out early in the process. Australian households, particularly those with less disposable income, need more help with the upfront cost.

One way to do this is through targeted government rebates, which are currently only available in some regions. Another is affordable and accessible financing, like that available in Tasmania and the ACT. The national Home Energy Upgrades Fund could also be extended to make sure available finance matches the scale of the challenge.

Also needed are long-term reforms such as mandatory disclosure of energy performance when homes are sold and minimum energy standards for rental properties, which are currently only required in some jurisdictions in Australia. When these are both addressed we can make comfortable, and affordable homes the norm rather than the exception.

A worthwhile journey

Roadblocks aside, households also shared the joy and satisfaction of completing home energy upgrades. While the journey was often difficult, those who reached the end of the road were overwhelmingly pleased with the results. A homeowner who had installed solar panels and undertaken draught-proofing and insulation in Adelaide said:

It’s nice not to have huge electricity bills, and but I find it’s that day to day stuff of actually being comfortable that makes the biggest difference.

This research was undertaken by Jaime Comber, Kamyar Soleimani, Ed Langham, Nimish Biloria, Leena Thomas and Kerryn Wilmot from the University of Technology, Sydney.

Jaime Comber received funding for this research as part of the Energy Upgrades for Australian Homes (EUAH) initiative – a national collaboration between research, industry and government partners to enable scalable, community-led energy upgrades. EUAH is funded through the RACE for 2030 cooperative research centre, which includes contributions from the NSW Government, Government of South Australia and Knauf Insulation. The project is led by Climate-KIC Australia and Monash University.

Ed Langham undertakes contract research for government, community and consumer advocates, and the clean energy industry. This research was funded as part of the RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre’s Energy Upgrades for Australian Homes project, which is co-funded by Australian Government, NSW Government, Government of South Australia and Knauf Insulation. Ed is also affiliated with Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems, based in the UK.

Nimish Biloria receives funding through the RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre. This research was undertaken as part of the Energy Upgrades for Australian Homes initiative, which is funded in part by the NSW Government, the Government of South Australia, and Knauf Insulation. Before this, Nimish Biloria has received funding from various governmental bodies, not-for-profit organizations, and the Industry such as the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), City of Sydney, AusIndustry Smart Cities and Suburbs Program, Transport for New South Wales, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Leigh Place Aged Care, Sydney, NSW, HMI Technologies.

– ref. These 5 roadblocks are standing in the way of energy-efficient homes – https://theconversation.com/these-5-roadblocks-are-standing-in-the-way-of-energy-efficient-homes-256906

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Graham, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney

With the Reserve Bank of Australia easing monetary policy, interest rates are on the way down.

Already this year, mortgage pre-approvals had begun to rise, suggesting many aspiring home buyers are excited by the prospect of cheaper home loans.

With further cuts expected before the end of the year, some economists are predicting we could be on the cusp of another house price boom. Lower interest rates enable people to borrow more and potentially spend more on homes, bidding up prices.

So, how might the Reserve Bank’s actions affect home buying behaviour and the housing market more broadly? Research offers us some clues.

How rates affect prices

Research shows that when a central bank lowers its benchmark interest rate, mortgage interest rates usually follow suit.

We saw this following the Reserve Bank’s May decision to cut rates. Australia’s big four banks immediately announced similar reductions in rates for new and existing borrowers.

Lower rates reduce the cost of servicing a loan. This is a big deal for Australian home buyers, whose mortgages can be very large.

With the average house price in Australia now hitting about $1 million, an 80% loan saddles the typical home buyer with $800,000 in debt.

Back in March, the average interest rate on new mortgages was 6%. For the average million-dollar house, this implies a monthly repayment of around $4,796, using the standard formula for amortising loans.

After the Reserve Bank cut the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points, this implies a new monthly repayment of $4,669 – $127 less. That’s a small, but surely welcome, relief for mortgage holders.

Combined with the Reserve Bank’s prior rate cut in February, such borrowers are now saving more than $250 a month relative to the start of the year.

Everyone can borrow more

Lower rates can also improve the borrowing capacity of new home buyers.

Before a bank issues a new mortgage, it weighs the ability of a borrower to service the loan. It does this by considering the amount of income they’ll have left over after meeting typical expenses.

This is known as a borrower’s “net income surplus”, and the proportion of this that is used to service a loan is known as the “net surplus ratio”.

The maximum ratio is capped at 90%, but the typical mortgage is lent against a ratio of less than 70%.

If a household earns $100,000 per year and allocates 25% to expenses, it can afford $4,375 in monthly mortgage repayments at a 70% net surplus ratio.

Given the previous interest rate of 6%, this maximum monthly repayment implies the household can afford to borrow $680,000. But after a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, this household can now afford a $695,000 home loan.

And following the 0.50 percentage points of cuts we’ve seen since January, this household’s borrowing capacity is up by $30,000.

Pulling up the ladder

For an individual home buyer, this extra borrowing may be enough to secure that dream home. But the rate cut affects everyone at the same time, increasing the borrowing capacity of home buyers all over the country.

All of this extra mortgage credit feeds housing demand, which is likely to pour more fuel into an already overheated market.

Indeed, recent research indicates that a 0.25 percentage point cut in the cash rate will likely lead to a 1.5–2% increase in average house prices over the following one to two years.

That’s an extra $20,000 on the current $1 million average home value.

Research also suggests the impact of interest rates across local housing markets may be strongest where housing supply is tightest and houses are already more expensive.

Mortgages get bigger

While lower rates reduce the cost of a given mortgage, the average mortgage size needs to grow to keep up with higher prices.

Recall that the monthly payment associated with an 80% loan on a million-dollar home at 6% interest was $4,796. If the interest rate falls by 0.25 percentage points but house prices rise by 2%, the new monthly payment is little changed, at $4,762.

On top of this, the 20% down payment on that new home will now have increased – by $4,000.

Is there hope for first home buyers?

Despite the initial excitement of lower rates, aspiring home buyers may be disappointed to see the price of their dream home climb further out of reach. Some may end up no better off than they had been previously.

Others might try to snap up a home before lower rates are completely priced in – motivated by a fear-of-missing-out (FOMO). Research suggests it can take a year or more before house prices peak following a rate change.

And others still may decide to keep renting for the time being. Fortunately for them, recent research shows that changes in interest rates do not materially affect the rents that landlords charge their tenants.

Finally, one option is holding savings in the stock market while they wait, perhaps diversified via exchange-traded funds, as these assets usually rise in value following an interest rate cut.

It’s never a good idea to panic. It’s always important to think through your options before diving into the market. And remember, our discussion here is only for general information and is not intended to be financial advice. All investments carry risk.

James Graham has received research funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and is a member of Sydney YIMBY.

– ref. With interest rates on the way down, could house prices boom? Here’s what research suggests – https://theconversation.com/with-interest-rates-on-the-way-down-could-house-prices-boom-heres-what-research-suggests-257724

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claudia Sandberg, Senior Lecturer, Technology in Culture and Society, The University of Melbourne

As we head into a new month of streaming, here’s a fresh wave of TV ready to challenge, transport and entertain you.

This month’s picks span genre and geography, from an eerie dystopian Buenos Aires, to a witty, awkward cyborg hero. Reality TV also gets a scandalous twist with the return of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. And Deaf President Now! delivers a powerful documentary on a historical milestone for Deaf rights.

There’s something for every kind of viewer — and every kind of mood.

The Eternaut

Netflix

Argentine sci-fi The Eternaut opens with a group of old friends in Buenos Aires meeting to play the card game truco on a hot summer night – when things suddenly get eerie.

The power goes out and a poisonous snowfall starts to blanket the city, killing thousands of people instantly. The survivors must get answers, quickly, as they start to grasp the true strength of their invisible enemy.

Based on Héctor Germán Oesterheld’s 1950s comic of the same name, The Eternaut portrays apocalypse through a deeply local and political lens – and in doing so has struck a chord in Argentina.

Directed by Bruno Stagnaro and led by Argentine film icon Ricardo Darín, as protagonist Juan Salvo, the series emphasises the power of collective heroism, and subtly critiques the current government’s uncompromising neoliberal approach.

It also pulses with national pride. Buenos Aires is not glamorized; real neighbourhoods are shown as classic Argentine tango, rock and folk plays in the background. Most importantly, Argentine identity is celebrated through themes of community spirit, grassroots resistance, and ingenuity in times of crisis.

The Eternaut feels both timely and timeless. Its slogan, “no one survives alone,” resonates for a country that has been long marked by both trauma and resistance efforts.

Its emotional weight is further deepened by Oesterheld’s legacy, including the tragic disappearance of him and his family members under the military rule of the 1970s.

With a second season on the way, this series is a powerful ode to Argentina.

– Claudia Sandberg

Read more:
Why Netflix’s The Eternaut is one of the most important shows to come out of Argentina in recent years

Murderbot

Apple TV+

Murderbot, Apple’s adaptation of Martha Wells’ science-fiction novella, All Systems Red (2017) is a satisfying combination of action, sci-fi and comedy. The show centres on a security unit (SecUnit) – an indentured private security cyborg – who secretly cracks the programming of its governing chip, granting itself autonomy.

Murderbot (Alexander Skarsgård), as it dubs itself, is both horrified and fascinated by humans. It’s far more afraid of eye contact, emotions and direct conversation than any physical danger. It’s also obsessed with mainlining media, particularly the ridiculous soap opera The Rise and Fall of Sanctuary Moon.

Murderbot is hired, reluctantly, by some hippy scientists from a group of “freehold” planets – ones that exist outside the Corporation Rim – to act as protection on a scientific expedition. It goes quickly awry.

Wells’ award-winning novella, the first in an equally good series, limits us to the first-person perspective of the sarcastic cyborg. The series expands this frame beautifully, building on the source material’s dry humour to create a world that is both goofy and grounded.

And while there are serious themes at play, such as the way SecUnits are effectively enslaved, and the violent capitalist dominance of the Corporation Rim, the show is not heavy. Skarsgård offers a pitch-perfect performance of the awkward, anxious robot – its eyes flickering in horror as the scientists try to befriend it.

The opening minutes of the first episode are clumsy and on-the-nose, but ignore them. This otherwise well-designed and well-directed show cracks along with brisk, highly-entertaining 22-minute episodes.

– Erin Harrington

The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, season two

Disney+

Season one of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives had us hooked at the end of 2024. Now, the women have returned for an explosive 10-episode second season.

The reality series follows a group of Mormon women living in Utah. While the title may have you anticipating stories of faith and motherhood, the show is more focused on the personal lives of Mormon mothers who rose to TikTok fame due to scandal and infamy.

Season one saw the women grapple with balancing traditional Mormon values with their online lives and subsequent businesses (along with the fallout from a “soft-swinging scandal”). Season two further highlights infidelity, jealously and money.

Old characters are brought back, with finger-pointing ex-husbands and former alienated friends adding to the fray. Police are called, insults are thrown and many of the women delve deeper into their pasts.

The show flips flops between difficult moments such as processing the death of loved ones and difficult pregnancies, with parties and poorly executed party games. At one point the women play pregnancy roulette (a game no one should recommend), and take pregnancy tests which are anonymously read out to the group. Chaos ensues.

And after watching, you can search for the TikTok accounts of the stars and watch new drama unfold in real-time – or watch them “correct” and expand on past situations based on their own perspectives – far removed from show’s editors.

– Edith Jennifer Hill

Deaf President Now!

Apple TV+

Deaf President Now! is a stirring documentary about an iconic student uprising at Gallaudet University, the world’s only Deaf university, in 1988. The film chronicles how Deaf students – tired of being led by hearing leadership – decided to take things in their own hands come the 1988 Gallaudet presidential election.

With two of the three candidates being Deaf, the appointment of Elisabeth Zinser, a hearing candidate unfamiliar with Deaf culture, sparked outrage. Fuelled by decades of marginalisation, the students barricaded campus gates, burned effigies of Zinser and marched to the Capitol, calling for Deaf leadership in Deaf spaces.

It worked. The protest forced Zinser’s resignation and ushered in Irving King Jordan, Gallaudet’s first Deaf president.

The film juxtaposes historic footage with present-day interviews with key leaders of the movement, allowing them to tell their stories their own way. These reflections, delivered in American Sign Language (ASL), underscore how storytelling itself can become an act of resistance for Deaf people.

At the same time, the documentary wrestles with a paradox. Co-directed by Deaf activist Nyle DiMarco and hearing filmmaker Davis Guggenheim, the film exemplifies how Deaf storytelling still often has hearing involvement, especially when the story is packaged for a mainstream audience.

Nevertheless, the release of Deaf President Now! couldn’t have been more timely. With disability rights in the United States threatened under Trump, the film is a call to action. It reminds us Deaf culture isn’t just about language: it’s about Pride, self-determination and visibility.

– Gemma King, Samuel Martin and Sofya Gollan

Read more:
Deaf President Now! traces the powerful uprising that led to Deaf rights in the US – now again under threat

The Surfer

Stan, from June 15

In Lorcan Finnegan’s The Surfer, our unnamed protagonist (Nicolas Cage) is returning to his former Australian home from the United States. He is newly divorced, and trying to buy a beachside property to win back his family.

He takes his teenage son (Finn Little) for a surf near the property, but they are run off by an unfriendly pack of locals.

Returning alone to the beachside car park to make some calls, he is besieged there by the same gang, and this continues over the next several days. The gang is led by a terrifying middle-aged Andrew Tate-esque influencer, Scally (Julian McMahon), who runs the beach like a combination of a frat bro party and wellness retreat.

It is impossible to think of an actor other than Cage who could make a character like this so enjoyable to watch. Cage’s distinctively American confidence has no resistance to the terrifying switches of Australian masculinity from friendly to teasing to violent.

The Surfer is an absolute blast. A lot of the fun is in anticipating each dreadful humiliation – and it somehow turning out worse than you could have expected.

The Surfer beautifully captures the natural surroundings, stunning views and shimmering heat of Australian coastal summer. At the same time, a confined, semi-urban feature like a beachside car park feels bleak and uninviting.

As a film setting, it is both a spectacular wide-open vista and stiflingly claustrophobic – a perfect mechanism for The Surfer’s psychological horror.

– Grace Russell

Read more:
Dishevelled, dehydrated delirium: new Aussie film The Surfer, starring Nicolas Cage, is an absolute blast

Fred and Rose West: A British Horror Story

Netflix

The story of serial killers, Fred and Rose West, has been highly narrativised since their shocking crimes were discovered in Gloucester in 1994. The horror of the Wests lies in the juxtaposition of their seemingly ordinary suburban family and what was hidden beneath the foundations of their home.

Fred and Rose West: A British Horror Story takes us back to the moment of that revelation via previously unheard interview tapes and recordings of the property search – and of Rose while she was kept in a safe house. Family home videos add to the disturbing sense of the couple’s duplicity.

Interviews with the family of some of the victims emphasise the ongoing pain caused by the Wests, who preyed on vulnerable young women. Meanwhile, Fred’s interviews reinforce his determination to protect his wife: “I trained Rose to do what I wanted. That is why our marriage worked out so well.”

Many details of the Wests’ true horror, however, are absent: the incredible torture suffered by the victims; Fred and Rose’s own childhoods of abuse and Fred’s earlier assault of young girls, including his own sister; and any reference to the couple’s surviving children and the extraordinary abuse they suffered.

The horror of this new documentary is present in the couple’s habitual lies, their casual attitude to violence and murder, and their refusal to take responsibility for their many crimes. Yet it only scratches the surface of the Wests’ true horror story.

– Jessica Gildersleeve

The Four Seasons

Netflix

The Four Seasons follows three 50-something affluent couples as they holiday together over the course of a year.

Friends since college, the group’s easy camaraderie is upended by Nick’s (Steve Carroll) bombshell decision to leave his seemingly unsuspecting wife, Anne (Kerri Kenney-Silver), after 25 years of marriage. The announcement sends shockwaves through the other couples, testing their own relationships.

Adapted from Alan Alda’s bittersweet 1981 comedy of the same name, the series preserves the film’s narrative conceit, unfolding over four seasonal mini trips. Episode one opens in full spring at Nick and Anne’s bucolic lake house.

Given the luxury on display, you’d be forgiven for mistaking The Four Seasons as another entry in the “rich-people-behaving-badly” genre. But while there’s plenty of quips and snarky humour, what unfolds is ultimately much kinder – less a scathing indictment of wealth and more a gentle exploration of the banalities of love and middle age.

The show’s creators make the most of the expanded running time to humanise the sextet. The open marriage between gregarious Italian Claude (Marco Calvini) and husband Danny (a marvellous Colman Domingo) updates the source material without sliding into tokenism or homonormativity.

The prickly Type-A Kate (Tina Fey) and peacekeeper Jack (Will Forte) provide the series’ beating heart, in a relationship that feels lived-in and familiar.

Despite its focus on ageing, loss, mortality and grief, The Four Seasons offers comfort viewing at its finest, best enjoyed with a cup of tea and a loved one who’s known you for decades.

– Rachel Williamson

Gemma King receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Claudia Sandberg, Edith Jennifer Hill, Erin Harrington, Grace Russell, Jessica Gildersleeve, Rachel Williamson, Samuel Martin, and Sofya Gollan do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Scandalous mormons, dystopian Buenos Aires and Nicolas Cage down under: what to watch in June – https://theconversation.com/scandalous-mormons-dystopian-buenos-aires-and-nicolas-cage-down-under-what-to-watch-in-june-257549

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul N. McDaniel, Associate Professor of Geography, Kennesaw State University

Detroit’s population grew in 2024 for the second year in a row. This is a remarkable comeback after decades of population decline in the Motor City.

What explains the turnaround? One factor may be Detroit’s efforts to attract and settle immigrants.

These efforts continue despite a dramatic national shift in tone toward new arrivals. This includes executive orders from the second Trump administration targeting immigrant communities, international students and their universities, and cities in which immigrants live.

We study urban geography and immigrant integration. Despite these federal policy shifts, our own research and that of others has found that local leaders in cities across the U.S. are actively working to bring immigrants in and help them become part of local communities, generally for economic reasons.

Our recent publications on immigrant integration and immigrant community engagement show how and why cities adapt to changes in their population and economies.

Detroit and other former immigrant gateway metro areas such as Buffalo, New York; Cleveland, Ohio; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and St. Louis, Missouri experienced significant immigration in the early 20th century. These population booms were followed by a period of decline in immigration numbers.

Now these cities are using branding strategies to construct inclusive identities designed to attract and retain immigrants. It may be surprising to think of a city branding itself, but local governments often work with private nonprofits to shape and manage their city’s image. They try to build a unique and desirable identity for the city, differentiate it from competitors, and attract new businesses, residents and tourists this way.

Here are three reasons why Detroit and other cities want to welcome immigrants:

1. Encouraging economic growth and attracting talent

Immigration has a positive impact on the economy, research shows.

Local leaders in Detroit recognize that in a global economy, a thriving industrial sector and robust labor market are linked to the contributions of immigrant communities. They also understand that the growth of these communities brings positive economic ripple effects.

Immigrants are more likely than the general population to own their own businesses. Organizations such as Global Detroit encourage entrepreneurship through programs such as the Global Talent Retention Initiative, Global Talent Accelerator and Global Entrepreneur in Residence and provide resources for small businesses.

Immigrants also fill labor needs, from high-tech fields such as engineering and research to manual labor sectors such as construction and food service.

The City of Detroit Office of Immigrant Affairs promotes economic development and immigrant integration through education, English as a second language programs, economic empowerment and community resources.

These efforts are paying off by attracting immigrants to the city.

This economic impact extends to tourism as well. The region’s marketing campaigns embracing diversity shape how visitors perceive the region. The Detroit Metro Convention & Visitors Bureau spotlights the unique experiences the city’s diverse neighborhoods offer to tourists.

2. Enhancing community and regional resilience

Regional resilience describes a region’s ability to withstand and adapt to challenges such as economic shocks and natural disasters. Cities like Detroit that are still trying to bounce back from deindustrialization know from experience how critical this is.

Immigration contributes to regional resilience, research shows. In addition to supporting local economies and strengthening the labor force, the arrival of immigrants in Detroit has helped offset native-born population decline, stabilizing the overall population and bolstering local tax bases.

According to our analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn metro area grew by 1.2%, from a total population of 4,291,843 in 2010 to 4,342,304 in 2023.

According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the Detroit metro area’s native-born population decreased by 58,693 people during that 13-year period, while the foreign-born population increased by 109,154. The top five countries of origin for immigrants in the metro area are India, Iraq, Mexico, Yemen and Lebanon.

From 2023 to 2024, the metro area’s population gained 40,347 immigrants and lost 11,626 native born residents – resulting in a population gain of 28,721.

Efforts to welcome immigrants in Detroit and its surrounding communities contributed to this trend of immigrant population growth offsetting overall population decline.

3. Promoting social cohesion and enhanced civic engagement

Successful place brands are rooted in inclusion and a strong civil society. Detroit’s rich tapestry of cultures in areas such as Dearborn and Hamtramck creates a vibrant regional identity.

Organizations such as Global Detroit’s Welcoming Michigan actively support local grassroots efforts to build mutual respect and ensure that immigrants are able to participate fully in the social, civic and economic fabric of their hometowns.

Examples include Global Detroit’s Social Cohesion Initiative, Common Bond and Opportunity Neighborhoods. These initiatives help bring neighborhood residents of various backgrounds together to share their cultures, support each other’s small businesses and socialize. Such programs strengthen the region’s democratic foundations and enhance its appeal as a welcoming and inclusive place to live.

Forging a way forward

Detroit has found that welcoming immigrants and integrating them into the life of the city is one way to navigate the economic, political and cultural challenges it faces.

And it is not alone in embracing this strategy. Other cities practicing similar strategies include Baltimore; Boise, Idaho; Charlotte, North Carolina; Dallas; Dayton, Ohio; Louisville, Kentucky; New Orleans; Pittsburgh; Roanoke, Virginia; and Salt Lake City.

Although not all cities choose to pursue such strategies, in those that do, local leaders signal a region ready for a globalized future.

Paul N. McDaniel previously received funding from the National Geographic Society, served on the Content Advisory Board for the Welcoming Standard and on the Steering Committee for Welcoming America’s One Region Initiative, and is a member of the American Association of Geographers.

Darlene Xiomara Rodriguez was co-PI on funding received from the National Geographic Society and served on the national pilot program with Welcoming America One Region Initiative’s Steering Committee and Program Evaluation Team.

– ref. Detroit’s population grew in 2023, 2024 − a strategy to welcome immigrants helps explain the turnaround from decades of population decline – https://theconversation.com/detroits-population-grew-in-2023-2024-a-strategy-to-welcome-immigrants-helps-explain-the-turnaround-from-decades-of-population-decline-255557

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ivis García, Associate Professor of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University

When powerful storms hit your city, which neighborhoods are most likely to flood? In many cities, they’re typically low-income areas. They may have poor drainage, or they lack protections such as seawalls.

New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward, where hundreds of people died when Hurricane Katrina broke a levee in 2005, and Houston’s Kashmere Gardens, flooded by Hurricane Harvey in 2017, are just two among many examples.

With those disasters in mind, the Federal Emergency Management Agency made a big change to its Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide in 2023. The agency began encouraging cities, towns and counties to address equity in their hazard mitigation plans, which outline how they will reduce disaster risk.

Local governments have an incentive to follow those federal guidelines: Those that want to receive FEMA hazard mitigation assistance – money which can be used to repair aging infrastructure like roads, bridges and flood barriers – or funding from other programs such as dam rehabilitation have to develop local mitigation plans and update them every five years.

The new guidance required cities to both consider social vulnerability among neighborhoods in their disaster mitigation planning and involve socially vulnerable communities in those discussions in ways they hadn’t before.

However, as the U.S. heads into what forecasters predict will be an active 2025 hurricane season, that guidance has changed again. The Trump administration’s new FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide 2025 talks about public involvement in planning but strips any mention of equity, income or social vulnerability. It mentions using “projections for the future” to plan but removes references to climate change.

Who is most at risk in hurricanes, and why

Hurricanes and other storms that cause flooding don’t affect everyone in the same way.

A legacy of redlining and discrimination in many U.S. cities left poor and minority families living in often risky areas. These neighborhoods also tend to have poorer infrastructure.

In the past, local mitigation plans just focused on fixing roads or protecting property in general from storm damage, without recognizing that socially vulnerable groups, such as low-income or elderly populations, were more likely to be hardest hit and take much longer to recover.

The FEMA 2023 guidance encouraged communities to consider both the highest risks and which neighborhoods would be least able to respond in a disaster and address their needs.

The equity requirement was designed to ensure that local plans didn’t just protect those with the most wealth or political influence but considered who needs the help most. That might mean providing information in multiple languages in emergency alerts or investing in flood prevention in neighborhoods with aging infrastructure like roads, bridges and flood barriers.

How New York City’s 2024 plan helped

New York City’s 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan, for example, included a thorough social vulnerability assessment to identify neighborhoods with high percentages of people who were living in poverty or were older, disabled or weren’t fluent in English.

Knowing where disaster risk and social vulnerability overlapped allowed the city to boost investments in flood protection, emergency communication and cooling centers during summer heat in neighborhoods such as the South Bronx and East Harlem. These neighborhoods historically faced some of the greatest risks from disasters but saw little investment.

Further, New York’s plan calls for expanding outreach and early warning systems in multiple languages and enhancing infrastructure in areas with high concentrations of Spanish speakers. These kinds of changes help ensure that vulnerable residents are more likely to be better protected when disaster strikes.

Why is FEMA dropping that emphasis now?

FEMA’s reasoning for the guidance change in 2025: make it quicker and easier to get plans approved and unlock federal funding for projects like flood barriers, storm shelters and buyouts in areas at high risk of damage.

It’s a pragmatic move, but one that raises big questions about whether residents who are least able to help themselves will be overlooked again when the next disaster strikes.

And FEMA isn’t alone — other agencies, like the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and its Community Development Block Grant – Disaster Recovery program, have made similar changes to their own disaster planning rules. Community Development Block Grant funds for disaster recovery are flexible and can be used for things like rebuilding homes and businesses, restoring infrastructure and helping local economies recover.

What this means for low-income areas

Some experts worry that the changes might mean low-income and other at-risk communities will be ignored again when cities develop their next five-year mitigation plans. Research from the Government Accountability Office shows that when something is required by law, it gets done. When it’s just a suggestion, it’s easy to skip, especially in places with fewer resources or less political will to help.

But the short-lived rules may have already helped in one important way: They made cities and states pay attention to social vulnerability, climate change and the needs of all their residents.

Many local leaders have learned the value of using data to understand where socially vulnerable residents face high disaster risks. And they have a model now for involving communities in decision-making. Even if those steps are no longer required, the hope is that these good habits will stick.

Where and how communities invest in disaster protection affects who stays safe and who faces higher risks from flooding, hurricanes and other disasters. When government policy shifts, it’s not just about paperwork – it’s about real people.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Hurricane season is here, but FEMA’s policy change could leave low-income areas less protected – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-season-is-here-but-femas-policy-change-could-leave-low-income-areas-less-protected-256985

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The button was pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the New South Wales Senate today. All analysts expected Labor to win the final seat, for a three Labor, two Coalition, one Green result. Instead, One Nation won the final seat, for a two Labor, two Coalition, one Green and one One Nation result. This is a One Nation gain from the Coalition.

Six of the 12 senators for each state and all four territory senators were up for election on May 3. Changes in state senate representation are measured against 2019, the last time these senators were up for election. State senators elected at this election will start their six-year terms on July 1.

Senators are elected by proportional representation in their jurisdictions with preferences. At a half-Senate election, with six senators in each state up for election, a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. For the territories, a quota is one-third or 33.3%.

Final primary votes in NSW gave Labor 2.63 quotas, the Coalition 2.06, the Greens 0.78, One Nation 0.42, Legalise Cannabis 0.24, Trumpet of Patriots 0.17, the Libertarians 0.13 and Family First 0.11. One Nation defeated Labor’s third at the final count by 0.89 quotas to 0.87.

Labor was hurt by the Greens being well short of quota, and getting preferences from left sources that would otherwise have gone to Labor, while right-wing parties united behind One Nation. The Greens only crossed quota at the second last count, and their small surplus wasn’t enough for Labor to catch One Nation.

I covered Senate results from other states and territories earlier and this week.

In the later piece, I talked about the two-party count. This isn’t finished yet in NSW or Victoria, but one side of politics usually needs about 57% of the two-party vote in a state to win four of the six senators (four quotas). This is very difficult to achieve.

In Tasmania, Labor won the two-party count by over 63–37, but missed out on three senators owing to Jacqui Lambie. In South Australia, Labor won by over 59–41 and the left won a 4–2 Senate split. In Victoria, Labor leads by nearly 57–43, and the left won a 4–2 Senate split. In Western Australia and NSW, Labor won by less than 56–44 and the Senate was tied 3–3 between left and right.

Out of the 40 Senate seats that were up at this election, Labor won 16 (up three), the Coalition 13 (down five), the Greens six (steady), One Nation three (up two) and Lambie and David Pocock one each (both steady). The Coalition lost senators in all mainland states, with Labor gaining in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland, and One Nation in NSW and WA.

The 36 state senators elected in 2022 won’t be up for election until 2028. For the whole Senate, Labor has 28 out of 76, the Coalition 27, the Greens 11, One Nation four and there are six others. Labor will need either the Greens or the Coalition to reach the 39 votes needed for a Senate majority.

In 2022, the United Australia Party (UAP) won a seat in Victoria. During the last term, Lidia Thorpe defected from the Greens, Fatima Payman from Labor and Tammy Tyrrell from the Jacqui Lambie Network. The six others are these four, Pocock and Lambie.

Counting Thorpe, Payman and Pocock as left and the UAP as right, the left overall has a 42–32 Senate majority, with two others (Lambie and Tyrrell).

National Senate primaries and results by state

Nationally, Labor won 35.1% of the Senate vote (up 5.0% since 2022), the Coalition 29.9% (down 4.4%), the Greens 11.7% (down 0.9%), One Nation 5.7% (up 1.4%), Legalise Cannabis 3.5% (up 0.2%), Trumpet of Patriots 2.6% and Family First 1.5%.

Labor won 34.6% nationally in the House of Representatives, so their Senate vote was 0.5% higher than in the House. It’s likely the lack of a Teal option helped Labor in the Senate.

This table shows the senators elected in each state and territory in 2025, with the seat share and vote share at the bottom. Despite the losses in NSW and WA, Labor and the Greens are overrepresented in the Senate relative to vote share.

Others are greatly underrepresented, but this is because most other parties are either left or right-wing, and their preferences go to Labor, the Greens, the Coalition or One Nation rather than to more others.

For the combined left to lose control of the Senate in 2028, they would need to lose four seats. The only seat that looks vulnerable is the WA seat won by Payman for Labor in 2022. Even if the Coalition wins in 2028, the Senate is likely to be hostile to the Coalition.

At a double dissolution election, all senators are up for election at the same time. If the Coalition wins in 2028, a double dissolution would be an option to seek to change a hostile Senate.

Preference distributions for WA and Queensland

Final WA primary votes gave Labor 2.53 quotas, the Liberals 1.86, the Greens 0.90, One Nation 0.41, Legalise Cannabis 0.28, the Nationals 0.25 and Australian Christians 0.19.

One Nation defeated Labor’s third at the final count by 0.90 quotas to 0.86. When the Nationals were excluded, the Liberals got a large surplus. As in Victoria, Liberal preferences heavily favoured One Nation over Labor and Legalise Cannabis.

But Legalise Cannabis preferences were not as good for Labor as in Victoria, with Labor winning these preferences by 13 points over One Nation, rather than 24 points in Victoria.

Final Queensland primary votes gave the Liberal National Party 2.17 quotas, Labor 2.13, the Greens 0.73, One Nation 0.50, Gerard Rennick 0.33, Trumpet of Patriots 0.26 and Legalise Cannabis 0.25.

Both the Greens and One Nation easily reached a quota on the distribution of preferences, with Rennick finishing far behind on 0.55 quotas.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Shock NSW Senate result as One Nation beats Labor to win final seat – https://theconversation.com/shock-nsw-senate-result-as-one-nation-beats-labor-to-win-final-seat-257888

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John (Eddie) La Marca, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer, WEHI (Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research)

Beloved Australian actor, Magda Szubanski, has revealed she’s been diagnosed with a “very rare, very aggressive, very serious” blood cancer called mantle cell lymphoma.

In a post on social media on Thursday, Szubanski said she would be starting treatment in a few weeks for the stage 4 cancer, which she called “one of the nasty ones, unfortunately”.

So, what is mantle cell lymphoma? And how is it treated?

What is mantle cell lymphoma?

There are more than 100 subtypes of blood cancers, but they are commonly divided into one of two groups. These are based on where they originate: leukaemias develop in the bone marrow, and lymphomas develop in the lymphatic system.

Lymphomas develop from white blood cells (lymphocytes), which circulate in the blood and lymphatic system and help fight infection.

You may not have heard of the lymphatic system, but it plays a key role in your immune response.

The lymphatic circulatory system is responsible for transporting fluids (lymph) around your body. Lymph comes from blood plasma, and helps remove waste from your tissues.

As part of the lymphatic system, tissues like the spleen and thymus help produce many of the immune cells you use to fight infections.

These cells are then housed in specialised organs called lymph nodes – small pea-sized glands located throughout your body.

Lymph nodes are kind of like the “war room” of your immune system.

Your body contains hundreds of lymph nodes, and each contains millions of lymphocytes. These include the T and B cells – the main fighting cells in adaptive immunity.

If B cells in an area of the lymph node known as the “mantle zone” become cancerous, it is called mantle cell lymphoma.

How rare is it?

In 2020, there were 330 cases of mantle cell lymphoma diagnosed in Australia, accounting for a small fraction (5%) of lymphoma cases.

Overall, lymphomas account for around one in twenty new cancer diagnoses. This makes mantle cell lymphoma quite rare.

Mantle cell lymphoma is about three times more common in men than in women, and mostly affects people over the age of 60.

Is there a cure?

Unfortunately, mantle cell lymphoma is largely considered incurable with the therapies currently available.

Like many cancers, mantle cell lymphoma can vary in how quickly it develops and its severity.

As Szubanski’s cancer has been described as “fast-moving” and is already stage 4, it appears that it is a more serious case.

Stage 4 is the most advanced stage – meaning the cancer has spread (metastasised) to other tissues.

Treatment at this stage can be more complicated than when the cancer is caught earlier. But treatment can still help people go on to live for many years.

What does treatment involve?

In her social media post, Szubanski said she will be receiving “one of the best treatments available (the Nordic protocol)”.

This is one of the most common treatments for an aggressive lymphoma.

The main component is “R-CHOP” – a combination therapy. It involves a mixture of different drugs, including chemotherapy, to attack the cancer from multiple angles at the same time.

Different strengths of the drugs can be used (the maximum strength is sometimes called R-maxi-CHOP).

A stem cell transplantation may also be included in the regimen.

How effective this treatment is will depend on many different factors, including the type and stage of the lymphoma.

The aim is to kill as many cancer cells as possible, and therefore extend a patient’s life for as long as possible.

Therapy also focuses on providing a high quality-of-life for patients.

How is it diagnosed?

Szubanski’s mantle cell lymphoma was detected during a breast cancer screen where, she says, “they found my lymph nodes were up”.

Imaging techniques, such as a mammogram or MRI, may detect tell-tale signs of lymphoma, such as swollen lymph nodes.

However a biopsy – a small sample of tissue from the affected area – would then be required to confirm the presence of cancer cells and identify what type.

Blood cancer symptoms can be vague, but it’s good to know what to look for.

As well as swollen lymph nodes, symptoms of lymphoma include nausea, tiredness, loss of appetite, fevers, gastrointestinal issues, unexplained weight loss, and night sweats.

If you have any concerns, you should consult a doctor.

John (Eddie) La Marca receives funding from Cancer Council Victoria. He is affiliated with the Olivia Newton-John Cancer Research Institute and the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research.

Sarah Diepstraten receives funding from Cure Cancer Australia and My Room Children’s Cancer Charity.

– ref. What is mantle cell lymphoma? Magda Szubanski’s ‘rare and fast-moving’ cancer, explained – https://theconversation.com/what-is-mantle-cell-lymphoma-magda-szubanskis-rare-and-fast-moving-cancer-explained-257821

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Webb, Lecturer, Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology

What goes up must come down, and earlier this week yet another of SpaceX’s Starships, the biggest and most powerful type of rocket ever built, came back down to Earth in spectacular fashion. In the sky above the Indian Ocean, it exploded.

This was the ninth test flight for the rocket, and the third catastrophic failure in a row, just this year.

Is this what we should expect from the very ship some are counting on to take humans further than we’ve ever been in the solar system? Or does this failure point to deeper concerns within the broader program?

A decade of development

The Starship program from Elon Musk’s space technology company, SpaceX, has been in development for more than a decade now and has undergone many iterations in its overall design and goals.

The Starship concept is based upon the SpaceX Raptor engines to be used in a multistage system. In a multistage rocket system, there are often two or three separate blocks with their own engine and fuel reserves. These are particularly important for leaving Earth’s orbit and travelling to the Moon, Mars and beyond.

With Starship, the key factor is the ability to land and reuse vast amounts of the rocket stages again and again. The company’s Falcon 9 vehicles, which used this model, were fantastically successful.

Initial tests of Starship began in 2018 with two low-altitude flights showing early success. Subsequent flights have faced numerous challenges with now four complete failures, two partial failures and three successes overall.

Just two days ago, during the latest failed attempt, I watched alongside over 200 other space industry experts at the Australian Space Summit in Sydney. Broadcast live on a giant screen, the launch generated an excited buzz – which soon turned to reserved murmurs.

Of course, designing and launching rockets is hard, and failures are to be expected. However, a third catastrophic failure within six months demands a pause for reflection.

On this particular test flight, as Starship positioned itself for atmospheric re-entry, one of its 13 engines failed to ignite. Shortly after, a booster appeared to explode, leading to a complete loss of control. The rocket ultimately broke apart over the Indian Ocean, which tonnes of debris will now call home.

Polluting Earth in pursuit of space

We don’t know the exact financial cost of each test flight. But Musk has previously said it is about US$50–100 million.

The exact environmental cost of the Starship program – and its repeated failures – is even harder to quantify.

For example, a failed test flight in 2023 left the town of Port Isabel, Texas, which is located beside the launch site, shaking and covered in a thick cloud of dirt. Debris from the exploded rocket smashed cars. Residents told the New York Times they were terrified. They also had to clean up the mess from the flight.

Then, in September 2024, SpaceX was fined by the US Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality for 14 separate incidents since 2022 where the launch facilities discharged polluted water into Texas waterways. Musk denied these claims.

That same month, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposed a fine of US$633,009 in civil penalties should be issued to SpaceX. This was on the grounds of using an unapproved launch control room and other violations during 2023. Musk denied these claims too and threatened to countersue the FAA for “regulatory overreach”.

It’s unclear if this suit was ever filed.

Two other failed launches in January and March this year also rained rocket debris over the Caribbean, and disrupted hundreds of commercial flights, including 80 which needed to be diverted and more than 400 requiring delayed takeoff to ensure they were entering safe air space.

Success of different space programs

Until last year, the FAA allowed SpaceX to try up to five Starship launches a year. This month, the figure was increased to 25.

A lot can go wrong during a launch of a vehicle to space. And there is a long way to go until we can properly judge whether Starship successfully meets its mission goals.

We can, however, look at past programs to understand typical success rates seen across different rocketry programs.

The Saturn V rocket, the workhorse of the Apollo era, had a total of 13 launches, with only one partial failure. It underwent three full ground tests before flight.

SpaceX’s own Falcon 9 rocket, has had more than 478 successful launches, only two in flight failures, one partial failure and one pre-flight destruction.

The Antares rocket, by Orbital Sciences Corporation (later Orbital ATK and Northrop Grumman) launched a total of 18 times, with one failure.

The Soyuz rocket, originally a Soviet expendable carrier rocket designed in the 1960s, launched a total of 32 times, with two failures.

No sign of caution

Of course, we can’t fairly compare all other rockets with the Starship. Its goals are certainly novel as a reusable heavy-class rocket.

But this latest failure does raise some questions. Will the Starship program ever see success – and if so when? And what are the limits of our tolerance as a society to the pollution of Earth in the pursuit of the goal to space?

For a rocketry program that’s moving so fast, developing novel and complex technology, and experiencing several repeated failures, many people might expect caution from now on. Musk, however, has other plans.

Shortly after the most recent Starship failure, he announced on X (formerly Twitter, that the next test flights would occur at a faster pace: one every three to four weeks.

Sara Webb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Elon Musk promises more risky launches after sixth Starship failure – https://theconversation.com/elon-musk-promises-more-risky-launches-after-sixth-starship-failure-257726

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ayda Kuluk, PhD Candidate in Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University

A major Australian study tracking more than 80,000 Queenslanders from birth to adulthood reveals stark differences between men and women in patterns of criminal behaviour.

These patterns offer insights into effective crime prevention strategies.

Our findings point to a clear takeaway: most people will never seriously come into contact with the criminal justice system. But for the small proportion who do, their paths into crime are shaped early and differently for men and women.

That means crime prevention efforts need to start earlier and be tailored to the experiences of those most at risk.

A rare opportunity

Our research followed more than 83,000 people born in Queensland in 1983 and 1984, and linked their early life records with official police data to understand who offended and how their patterns changed over time.

Few studies worldwide have followed such a large population from childhood through to early adulthood.

This gave us a unique opportunity to examine not just if people committed crime but when, how often and the types and seriousness of their offences.

Most people don’t offend but some do – repeatedly

The clearest finding was also the most reassuring: the vast majority of people never commit serious offences.

That means efforts to prevent crime can be more precisely targeted, ensuring interventions focus on a smaller, high-risk group rather than the general population.

Non-offending was most prevalent, but five distinct offending groups for both men and women were identified.

Among men, these ranged from those who rarely offended to a small group that started early and continued into adulthood, and another that mostly offended during adolescence but later stopped.

In contrast, most women fell into the low or non-offending groups. Only a small proportion followed a pattern of serious or repeat offending.

These trajectories were categorised as follows:

Women:

• non-offending: 79.9%
• adolescent-limited low: 8.5%
• adult-onset low: 8.6%
• early adult-onset escalating: 1.3%
• early onset young adult peak: 1.4%
• chronic early adult peak: 0.4%

Men:

• non-offending: 54.4%
• low: 31.0%
• early adult-onset low: 6.5%
• early onset young adult peak: 4.8%
• chronic adolescent-onset: 2.2%
• chronic early adult peak: 1.1%

Among the women who did offend, there were notable differences compared to men – not just in frequency but in the types of offences, how often they had contact with police and their experience with youth detention.

Patterns differ by sex

For boys and young men, those in the persistent offending group had earlier and more frequent contact with police, were more likely to face serious charges and often experienced youth detention.

For girls and young women, fewer entered the system overall but those with repeat contact showed distinct patterns: their offences tended to differ from those of men, with a greater focus on property-related crimes as well as drug and traffic violations, rather than the more frequent violent crimes seen among young men.

While they were less likely to be detained, their level of system contact was higher than that of most men in the low offending group.

These differences suggest sex shapes not just the likelihood of offending, but the nature of offending and how people interact with the justice system.

One-size-fits-all crime prevention won’t work

Our findings suggest a nuanced approach to crime prevention – one that recognises both the gendered nature of offending and the early life experiences that shape it.

For boys and young men, this could mean early identification of behavioural issues, stronger support in schools and support to create stable, safe home environments.

For girls and young women, more effective interventions might involve trauma-informed care (an approach that acknowledges past trauma and prioritises safety, trust and empowerment), along with tailored mental health support and services focused on recovery.

These gender-sensitive approaches are not just about being fair, they’re about being effective and equitable. When we better understand the roots of offending behaviour, we can design policies that reduce it.

Why early intervention matters

It’s easy to think of crime as something that starts with a police report or a court appearance. But the conditions for offending, or avoiding it, are often set much earlier.

Here are two real-life examples.

What if we saw a child’s aggression at school not as “bad behaviour” but as a red flag for family violence at home? What if a teenage girl’s shoplifting was a symptom of trauma or mental illness?

This research reinforces the value of early, targeted intervention.

That doesn’t just mean more programs, it means smarter programs, ones that focus resources on those most at risk in ways that match their lived experience.

Our study is one of the most comprehensive of its kind in Australia. It confirms that while most people never offend, a small group follow early, distinct pathways into crime.

Recognising these patterns gives us a powerful opportunity: to design earlier and more targeted prevention. That means fewer people in the justice system and healthier, safer communities for everyone.

If we want to stop crime before it starts, we need to start early, and we need to pay attention to the very different paths children may be on.

Ayda Kuluk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Tracking crime from the cradle: why some people keep breaking the law while most of us never do – https://theconversation.com/tracking-crime-from-the-cradle-why-some-people-keep-breaking-the-law-while-most-of-us-never-do-257130

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yi Fei Chung, PhD Candidate in Environmental Policy, The University of Queensland

Imagine replanting various native species only to have them die because the area is too hot or too dry. Or reconnecting woodland habitat only to lose large tracts to bushfire.

Well, our new research suggests those scenarios are entirely possible.

We analysed the two most common ways to prevent overall biodiversity loss on private land in Australia. We found these efforts largely ignore climate risks such as fire, heat, drought and floods.

Climate change is already threatening the survival of species. Unless conservation efforts are made more resilient to climate change, Australia’s aim to to reverse biodiversity loss could fail.

What we found

We examined two types of biodiversity measures in Australia. One is “biodiversity offsets”, which aim to compensate for damage caused by development. The other is voluntary conservation programs, including “conservation covenants”.

We analysed 77 policy documents underpinning nine biodiversity offset policies and 11 voluntary conservation programs.

Of the 77 documents, 84% did not consider the impact of climate change. What’s more, only 44% of biodiversity offset policies and 27% of voluntary conservation programs considered climate risk. Even then, they often lacked detail or tools to translate policy into real action on the ground.

The most common climate adaptation strategies were:

• safeguarding climate refuges
• connecting habitat so wildlife can escape extreme heat, fires or droughts
• targeting funding
• avoiding offset sites vulnerable to threats such as sea-level rise.

But most documents lacked details on implementing these strategies.

We suggest three practical steps to ensure conservation efforts deliver lasting results in a changing climate.

1. Identify and protect climate refuges

Climate refuges are areas somewhat shielded from the effects of climate change. Gullies, sheltered slopes and forests with good water supplies can help species survive during heatwaves and droughts.

These places can provide a lifeline for endangered species and prevent local extinctions. Species may shelter in these areas during climate extremes and recolonise well-connected habitats when conditions improve.

Protecting climate refuges by restricting land clearing or other damaging activities is a common climate adaptation strategy. We found it featured in six policy documents supporting voluntary conservation programs and biodiversity offsets across Australia. But few policy documents explain where these places are or how to protect them.

For example, the New South Wales Biodiversity Conservation Investment Strategy lists climate refuges as high-priority assets under threat. The strategy says future investment should target these areas.

But we found no explanation of how investments would be prioritised, or where to find that information. Without this detail, mentioning climate refuges in policy documents is little more than having good intentions.

To be effective, refuges need to be mapped, prioritised and supported with appropriate protections and incentives. Nature law reform must strengthen protection of climate refuges to prevent further loss.

Conservation programs could also specifically incentivise landholders to protect or restore refuges on their properties.

2. Promote the actions that build resilience

On the ground, conservation actions must adapt to climate change. That could mean doing things differently. For example, planting species more likely to survive future climates, or connecting habitat so wildlife can move to new areas.

While these strategies are well established, we only found three policy documents that mention them. One is the Heritage Agreement policy in South Australia. This offers guidance and potential funding to help landholders implement these actions.

As Australia’s nature laws are reformed, funding commitments and conservation guidelines need to follow suit.

Financial incentives or technical support could be offered to landholders for activities that build resilience. Biodiversity offset policies could also mandate conservation actions that improve climate resilience at offset sites.

3. Adapting to climate change needs to link policy to on-ground action

Our research found a clear gap between high-level intent and guidelines for on-ground actions. If they don’t line up, then conservation efforts risk falling short. Field programs may lack legal backing, or legislation may not translate into action where it matters most.

Climate change should be considered at all levels of conservation policies – from high-level legislation to guidelines for implementing individual programs.

Policies should include clear and consistent targets informed by climate risk. This should be supported by regulations ensuring compliance and practical guidelines for on-ground action.

Voluntary conservation programs in New South Wales show how it can be done. State biodiversity conservation legislation includes conserving biodiversity under climate change as a key objective. This can then shape real-world programs. For example, the NSW Conservation Management plan echoes this climate commitment. It makes addressing climate change impacts one of the main targets.

A chance to get it right

National nature law reform and state reviews present an opportunity to future-proof Australia’s conservation policies.

These policies must consider the accelerating pace of change and ensure adaptation is embedded through to action. Such actions must be clear, well-resourced, and equipped with practical tools government agencies and landholders can use.

Otherwise, we risk making conservation policies unfit for the future – missing a golden opportunity to safeguard biodiversity.

Read more:
Want genuine progress towards restoring nature? Follow these 4 steps

Yi Fei Chung receives funding from a UQ Research Training Scholarship. He is also involving in an Australian Research Council Linkage Project that receives financial and in-kind support from the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, the Biodiversity Conservation Trust, Tweed Shire Council, and the NSW Koala Strategy.

Jonathan Rhodes receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the NSW Government, the Biodiversity Conservation Trust, Tweed Shire Council, the NSW Koala Strategy, and the Queensland Government.

– ref. Most of Australia’s conservation efforts ignore climate risks – here are 3 fixes – https://theconversation.com/most-of-australias-conservation-efforts-ignore-climate-risks-here-are-3-fixes-257131

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Hernández Carrasco, PhD Candidate in Ecology, University of Canterbury

Seasonality shapes much of life on Earth. Most species, including humans, have synchronised their own rhythms with those of Earth’s seasons.

Plant growth cycles, the migration of billions of animals, and even aspects of human culture – from harvest rituals to Japanese cherry blossom viewings – are dictated by these dominant rhythms.

However, climate change and many other human impacts are altering Earth’s cycles. While humans can adapt their behaviour by shifting the timing of crop harvests or Indigenous fire-burning practices, species are less able to adapt through evolution or range shifts.

Our new research highlights how the impacts of shifting seasons can cascade through ecosystems, with widespread repercussions that may be greater than previously thought.

This puts species and ecosystems at risk the world over. We are still far from having a full picture of what changes in seasonality mean for the future of biodiversity.

Almost every ecosystem on Earth has seasons

From tropical forests to polar ice caps and abyssal depths, the annual journey of Earth around the Sun brings distinct seasons to all corners of the planet.

These seasonal rhythms shape ecosystems everywhere, whether through monsoonal rains in equatorial regions or the predictable melt of snowpack in mountain ranges.

But the seasonality of these processes is changing rapidly due to local human impacts. This includes dams in many rivers, which completely and abruptly disrupt their natural flow, and deforestation, which changes the timing of the onset of the rain season.

These local influences are compounded by climate change, which is systematically modifying seasonal patterns in snow cover, temperature and rainfall around the world.

From the earlier seasonal melting of glaciers and the snowpack to the disruption of monsoonal rain cycles, the effects of these changes are being felt widely.

Many important ecological processes we rely on could be affected. A mismatch between plankton blooms and the life cycles of fish could affect the health of fisheries. Tourism dependent on seasonal migrations of large mammals could suffer. Even the regulation of the climate system itself is tightly controlled by seasonal processes.

Changing seasonality threatens to destabilise key ecological processes and human society.

Evolutionary adaptations to seasonal fluctuations

The seasonal rhythms of ecosystems are obvious to any observer. The natural timing of annual flowers and deciduous trees – tuned to match seasonal variations in rainfall, temperature and solar radiation – transforms the colours of whole landscapes throughout the year.

The arrival and departure of migratory birds, the life cycle of insects and amphibians, and the mating rituals of large mammals can completely change the soundscapes with the seasons.

These examples illustrate how seasonality acts as a strong evolutionary force that has shaped the life cycles and behaviour of most species. But, in the face of unprecedented changes to Earth’s natural rhythms, these adaptations can lead to complex negative impacts.

For instance, snowshoe hares change coat colour between winter and summer to blend in with their surroundings and hide from predators. They are struggling to adapt to shifts in the timing of the first snow and snowmelt. The impact of changing seasonality on hare populations is linked with changes in predation rates. But predators themselves may also be out of sync with the new onset of seasons.

Our research highlights that these kinds of complex interactions can propagate impacts through ecosystems, linking individual species’ seasonal adaptations to broader food web dynamics, or even ecosystem functions such as carbon sequestration.

Although biologists have studied seasonal processes for centuries, we know surprisingly little about how they mediate any ecological impacts of altered seasonality. Our findings show we are likely underestimating these impacts.

The distinct mechanisms involved deserve further attention. Until we account for these complex processes, we risk overlooking important ecological and human consequences.

The more we understand, the better prepared we are

Understanding the extent to which impacts of altered seasonality can interact and propagate from individuals to whole ecosystems is a big challenge. It will require different types of research, complex mathematical modelling and the design of new experiments. But it is not easy to manipulate the seasons in an experiment.

Scientists have come up with inventive ways of experimentally testing the effects of altered seasonality. This includes manually removing snow early in spring, manipulating rainfall patterns through irrigation and moving plants and animals to places with different seasonality.

Some researchers have even recovered seeds from centuries-old collections to sprout them and look at how recent changes in climate have affected plant populations.

These efforts will be of great value for forecasting impacts and designing effective management strategies beneficial for ecosystems and humans alike. Such efforts help to anticipate future shocks and prioritise interventions.

For instance, understanding the mechanisms that allow native and non-native species to anticipate seasonal changes has proven useful for “tricking” non-native plants into sprouting only in the wrong season. This gives an advantage to native plants.

Similarly, studies on the molecular mechanisms involved in the response to seasonality can help us determine whether certain species are likely to adapt to further changes in seasonal patterns. This research can also point out genes that could be targeted for improving the resilience and productivity of crops.

Not only are we likely underestimating the ecological risks of shifting seasons, we tend to forget how much our everyday lives depend on them. As Earth’s rhythms change, the risks multiply. But so does our opportunity to better understand, anticipate and adapt to these changes.

Daniel Hernández Carrasco receives funding from a Doctoral Scholarship by the University of Canterbury.

Jonathan Tonkin receives funding from a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship administered by the Royal Society Te Apārangi and the Centres of Research Excellence Bioprotection Aotearoa and Te Pūnaha Matatini.

– ref. Earth’s seasonal rhythms are changing, putting species and ecosystems at risk – https://theconversation.com/earths-seasonal-rhythms-are-changing-putting-species-and-ecosystems-at-risk-257660

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian A. Wright, Associate Professor in Environmental Science, Western Sydney University

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has this week released new data which tells us about the presence of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in Australians’ bodies.

The data comes from concentrations measured in blood samples of nearly 7,000 people aged 12 and over, collected as part of the National Health Measures Survey for 2022–24.

The findings are concerning, showing PFAS are detectable in the vast majority of the Australian population, to varying levels.

But are they cause for alarm? What do these findings mean for our health?

‘Forever chemicals’

PFAS, often called “forever chemicals”, are a group of thousands of different human-made chemicals. The molecular structure of PFAS chemicals – characterised by extremely strong bonds between carbon and fluorine atoms – makes PFAS resistant to degradation.

Many PFAS products are very effective for their resistance to water, oil, grease and stains, while others promote foaming. Since the 1940s, PFAS chemicals have been widely used in many consumer and industry products, such as non-stick pans, stain-resistant fabrics and firefighting foam.

One of the downsides of PFAS is their potential to bioaccumulate, or gradually build up in the body.

Important exposure pathways include ingestion of PFAS in drinking water, in food, or absorption through the skin. Absorption of small amounts progressively builds up in the organs of people and animals, particularly the liver.

Exposure to PFAS is associated with a heightened risk of many adverse health outcomes. These include reduced fertility, and increased risk of some cancers, liver disease, kidney disease, high cholesterol and obesity.

Digging into the data

The ABS data measured 11 types of PFAS. The group of PFAS chemicals they selected reflects the most commonly detected forms from previous studies. The concentration of PFAS chemicals is measured in blood serum in nanograms per millilitre (ng/mL).

Three types of PFAS were detected in the blood of more than 85% of Australians, while the remainder were detected in lower proportions of people.

The type of PFAS most commonly detected in blood was perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS). It was found in 98.6% of samples.

PFOS accumulation has been a major problem in firefighters. Many were exposed occupationally to PFOS, sometimes for decades, and many suffered an unusually high incidence of disease, including a suspected cancer cluster.

The below graph shows the level of PFOS increases with age. This could be because it accumulates in the body over time, and because many types of PFOS are being phased out. From 2004 its use in firefighting was phased out by major users, such as the Department of Defence.

PFOS was also found to be higher in males – research shows PFAS is excreted more rapidly in females, including through menstruation and breastfeeding.

The second most commonly detected type of PFAS detected in Australian blood samples was perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), in 96.1% of samples. PFOA has recently been classified by the World Health Organization as a group 1 carcinogen, meaning it’s a recognised cancer-causing agent.

The third most commonly detected type of PFAS was perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS), which was detected in 88.1% of samples.

So what are the implications?

The National Health Measures Survey identified a relationship between higher mean PFOS levels and markers of chronic disease including high total cholesterol levels, diabetes and kidney function.

However, it’s important to note this is only 7,000 people, and the data were weighted to be representative of the Australian population. There may be other factors, such as lifestyle or occupation, that have influenced the results.

While these findings may be concerning, they’re not cause for alarm. The scientific evidence more broadly doesn’t tell us conclusively whether concentrations of PFAS equivalent to those seen in the current data would have a direct effect on disease outcomes.

Some good news is that overall, this data suggests we have less PFAS in our blood compared to people in other countries.

Why this data is important

The ABS report provides the most detailed national baseline data on PFAS in the Australian population to date.

While many people are concerned about PFAS, some Australian communities have been particularly worried.

For example, in August 2024 it was revealed that a water filtration plant in the Blue Mountains contained substantial concentrations of PFAS. This was probably due to a major petrol tanker crash in 1992 and residual effects of PFAS from firefighting foam used to respond to that incident.

While people can have a blood sample taken to measure PFAS levels, it’s very expensive. NSW Health advises PFAS testing is not covered by Medicare or private health insurance.

Reports are emerging of Blue Mountains residents that have paid for blood testing getting very high concentrations of PFAS. These ABS results will help people who do receive blood testing assess how their results compare with typical results of a person of the same age and sex. People with concerns should consult a medical professional.

The ABS data will also be valuable for medical practitioners and public health authorities, providing important information to guide the management of PFAS contamination and its potential health effects.

Ian Wright receives research and other funding from industry, local and state government bodies.

– ref. New Australian data shows most of us have PFAS in our blood. How worried should we be? – https://theconversation.com/new-australian-data-shows-most-of-us-have-pfas-in-our-blood-how-worried-should-we-be-257648

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Buttons have been pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the Senate in Victoria, the ACT, Queensland and Western Australia. Labor gained a seat from the Liberals in Victoria, with the other two unchanged. I had a wrap of earlier button presses on Tuesday.

Six of the 12 senators for each state and all four territory senators were up for election on May 3. Changes in state senate representation are measured against 2019, the last time these senators were up for election.

Senators are elected by proportional representation in their jurisdictions with preferences. At a half-Senate election, with six senators in each state up for election, a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. For the territories, a quota is one-third or 33.3%.

Labor has won three of the six Victorian senators, the Coalition two and the Greens one, a gain for Labor from the Coalition since 2019. That’s a 4–2 split from Victoria to the left.

Final primary votes gave Labor 2.43 quotas, the Coalition 2.20, the Greens 0.87, One Nation 0.31, Legalise Cannabis 0.25, Trumpet of Patriots 0.18, Family First 0.13, Animal Justice 0.11 and Victorian Socialists 0.11.

On the distribution of preferences, Labor’s third candidate defeated One Nation by 0.87 quotas to 0.81. Neither the third Liberal nor Legalise Cannabis were anywhere near One Nation at earlier exclusion points.

On the exclusion of the Liberals, 50% of their preferences went to One Nation, 22% to Labor, 14% to Legalise Cannabis and the rest exhausted. At this point, One Nation led Labor by 0.73 quotas to 0.67 with 0.47 for Legalise Cannabis. On Legalise Cannabis’ exclusion, Labor won 42% of preferences, One Nation 19% and the rest exhausted, giving Labor its win.

The third candidate on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket was Michelle Ananda-Rajah, the former Labor member for Higgins before Higgins was abolished in a redistribution.

Usually Labor only wins two Victorian senators with the Greens winning the third for the left. Ananda-Rajah would not have expected to be back in parliament, although in a different chamber.

WA, Queensland and ACT Senate results

The Western Australian Senate result is two Labor, two Liberals, one Green and one One Nation, a gain for One Nation from the Liberals. Final WA primary votes gave Labor 2.53 quotas, the Liberals 1.86, the Greens 0.90, One Nation 0.41, Legalise Cannabis 0.28, the Nationals 0.25 and Australian Christians 0.19.

Until very late it had been expected that Labor would take the last seat instead of One Nation, but The Poll Bludger changed his model to give One Nation a slight lead owing to evidence of stronger Coalition flows to One Nation in other states.

In Queensland, Labor won two seats, the Liberal National Party two, the Greens one and One Nation one. This was a gain for Labor from the LNP after Labor’s 2019 disaster, when they won just one Queensland senator.

Final Queensland primary votes gave the LNP 2.17 quotas, Labor 2.13, the Greens 0.73, One Nation 0.50, Gerard Rennick 0.33, Trumpet of Patriots 0.26 and Legalise Cannabis 0.25.

I will analyse the WA and Queensland preference distributions in a final Senate results wrap article that will be posted after the final state, New South Wales, has its button pressed. Labor is expected to gain a seat in NSW from the Coalition.

Left-wing independent David Pocock and Labor were both re-elected in the ACT, with no change since 2022. Final primary votes were 1.17 quotas for Pocock, 0.95 Labor, 0.53 for the Liberals (just 17.8%) and 0.23 for the Greens. Labor crossed quota on the exclusion of second Pocock candidate with the Liberals and Greens still remaining.

Labor’s national two party vote up to a 55.6–44.4 lead

On May 5, two days after the election, I explained that we needed to wait for “non-classic” seats to have a special two-party count undertaken between the Labor and Coalition candidates. Non-classic seats are seats where the final two were not Labor and Coalition candidates.

With the major party national primary votes so low at this election, 35 of the 150 House of Representatives seats were non-classics. Before the two-party counts in these seats started, The Poll Bludger’s national two-party estimate gave Labor a 54.6–45.4 margin and the ABC a 55.0–45.0 margin.

This week the electoral commission has been counting the Labor vs Coalition two-party votes in the non-classic seats, and Labor currently leads by 55.6–44.4. The national two-party vote is still incomplete, but the large majority of non-classic seats have now had a two-party count undertaken.

The remaining non-classic seats that are either uncounted or partially counted to two-party are favourable to the Coalition, so Labor will drop back a little, but will still win the national two party vote by about 55.4–44.6.

Labor’s biggest wins on a Labor vs Coalition basis are seats where Labor and the Greens made the final two. For example in Wills, Labor defeated the Greens by 51.4–48.6, but the two-party count gives Labor a massive 80.9–19.1 win over the Liberals. Swings to Labor in non-classic seats have been bigger than swings in classic seats, so Labor’s two-party vote has increased.

Labor’s big two-party win makes the pre-election polls look worse than they did on election night. Here’s the poll graph I was posting in all my pre-election articles updated with the estimated final two-party margin.

Only one national poll was accurate: the Morgan poll published two weeks before the election that gave Labor a 55.5–44.5 lead. It’s a shame for Morgan that their final two polls “herded” back to a consensus that was wrong. I will have a full review of the federal polls once all results are finalised.

Recounts in Bradfield and Goldstein

A full recount is in progress in Liberal-held Bradfield, where the Liberal was ahead of Teal Nicolette Boele by eight votes after distribution of preferences. Four days into the recount, the Liberal leads by just five votes.

A partial recount in Goldstein of the primary votes for Liberal Tim Wilson and Teal incumbent Zoe Daniel is also underway after Wilson led by 260 votes after distribution of preferences. Two days into this recount, Wilson leads by 259 votes and will win unless large errors are found that favour Daniel when corrected.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor gains Senate seats in Victoria and Queensland, and surges to a national 55.6–44.4 two-party margin – https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-senate-seats-in-victoria-and-queensland-and-surges-to-a-national-55-6-44-4-two-party-margin-257714

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Roberts, Professor of Education and Social Justice, Monash University

British prosecutors have this week charged social media influencer Andrew Tate with a string of serious sexual offences, including rape and human trafficking, alleged to have been committed in the United Kingdom between 2012 and 2015.

This comes in the wake of an ongoing case in Romania. There, Tate and his brother Tristan face similar charges of coercing and exploiting women through what is sometimes described as the “loverboy method” of manipulation that is used to control and monetise women through webcam performances.

A self-described misogynist, Tate is a widespread figure of notoriety for his views on women and his role in the internet “manosphere”. He has millions of followers globally, including ten million on X alone.

This latest round of prosecutions will likely further entrench the loyalty of those followers: boys and young men who will see their leader as the victim of a corrupt system.

Who is Andrew Tate?

Tate is a British-American social media influencer and former kickboxer. He gained international notoriety for his violently misogynistic videos and pronouncements.

He’s built a massive, loyal social media following through a brand that is part provocateur, part self-help guru and part conspiracy theorist.

His rhetoric emphasises an aspirational masculinity geared towards extreme wealth and a physically fit body, combined with resentment towards women and so-called “feminised” societies. He has, for example, stated that women should “bear responsibility” for sexual assault.

Tate is a leading ideological figurehead of what is often called the “manosphere” – a loose network of online communities and content creators who promote regressive ideas about masculinity, gender roles and male identity.

Tate offers a template for many boys and young men to make sense of their place in the world, playing up ideas that boys are disenfranchised by social, economic, or cultural change.

This is part of an emotional hook that provides belonging and clarity in a world his followers are told is stacked against them.

Tate’s content involves both overt and, more often, insidious celebration of harmful gender norms and misogynistic ideologies.

Research has found boys’ exposure to this content has contributed to a resurgence of a sense of male supremacy in classrooms. This then increases sexism and hostility towards women teachers and girl peers.

Reinforcing the narrative

Given this context, it is unlikely the new charges will erode his popularity.

To be clear, he is not universally admired. In fact, the majority of boys reject what he stands for.

However, for the significant minority who comprise his hardcore followers, these new charges will likely be used to reinforce a persecution narrative.

In this way, Tate has paved the way for more violent and extreme misogyny to become standard, not rare.

This was exactly the pattern when the Romanian charges first emerged. His followers flooded platforms with hashtags like #FreeTopG, reframing his arrest as proof that he was “telling the truth” and being punished for it.

Figures like US President Donald Trump provide a relevant comparison. Trump has faced multiple criminal indictments and was found liable in a civil trial for sexually assaulting E. Jean Carroll.

Yet, his popularity among his base has held firm.

For many of his supporters, these legal challenges are not signs of wrongdoing, but evidence their champion is being unfairly targeted by corrupt institutions.

Tate is similar in that his hypermasculine posturing and anti-establishment bravado ensures his audience see him the same way.

Prompting more loyalty

Given their previous responses, we can already predict how the Tate brothers will respond this time. They will deny the charges, of course, but more importantly, they will use the moment to deepen their mythos.

We might expect to see talk of “the matrix” of shadowy elites, and the weaponisation of justice systems to silence truth-telling men.

They will insist the charges are not about what they did, but about who they are: disruptors of a weak, feminised society. This victim-persecutor framing is central to their appeal and will remain so as this unfolds.

Their followers will, then, likely respond with greater loyalty. For those already steeped in online misogyny and disillusionment, legal accusations such as these don’t raise doubt, but instead confirm the story they already buy into.

This makes combating Tate’s influence a complex challenge. Simply “calling it out” is not enough.

As our research shows, Tate’s brand thrives not in spite of controversy, but because of it.

This is why we need a more strategic, long-term approach to address the harms Tate and other such figureheads represent.

We need robust gender education in schools, stronger commitments to critical media literacy, and the elevation of alternative role models who can speak to the same emotional terrain without reinforcing misogyny.

This can include other content creators, like Will Hitchins, but also youth workers or people of any gender from boy’s existing communities.

A key lesson here is that, for the manosphere’s key figures, being charged or even found guilty of crimes (should that occur) might not signal their downfall or diminish their relevance.

Steven Roberts receives funding from Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety, the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government. He is a Board Director at Respect Victoria, but this article is written wholly separate from and does not represent that role.

Stephanie Wescott receives funding from Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety.

– ref. Influencer Andrew Tate is charged with a raft of sex crimes. His followers will see him as the victim – https://theconversation.com/influencer-andrew-tate-is-charged-with-a-raft-of-sex-crimes-his-followers-will-see-him-as-the-victim-257805

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Smith, Professor of Archaeology (World Rock Art), School of Social Sciences, The University of Western Australia

Yesterday, new environment minister Murray Watt approved an extension for the North West Shelf liquefied natural gas project. The gas plant at Karratha, Western Australia, will run until 2070.

This expansion – and the pollution it will release – has led to a recommendation by the International Council on Monuments and Sites to defer UNESCO’s decision on the world heritage listing of the nearby Murujuga rock art.

Two of the recommendations prior to renomination of the site are to “ensure the total removal of degrading acidic emissions” and “prevent any further industrial development adjacent to, and within, the Murujuga Cultural Landscape”.

Murujuga has more than one million petroglyphs, some up to 50,000 years old.

It has the oldest depictions of the human face in the world and records the lore and traditions of Aboriginal Australians since the first human settlement of this continent. It is strikingly beautiful and is of enormous cultural and spiritual importance to the Traditional Owners.

Despite the immense significance of the site, a large industrial precinct has been built at its centre.

Read more:
Green light for gas: North West Shelf gas plant cleared to run until 2070

Concerns about the Murujuga Rock Art report

On Friday, the Western Australian Government released the long awaited Murujuga Rock Art Monitoring Program Year 2 report. This report examines the effect of industrial pollution upon one of the world’s most significant rock art sites.

We have conducted our own independent project into the impact of industrial emissions on Murujuga since 2018. Many of our findings support the details in this report but the government’s report summary and subsequent political commentary downplays the ongoing impacts of acidic emissions from industry on the world unique rock art.

The most significant findings are the Weathering Chamber results. These subjected all rock types from Murujuga to the air pollutants released by industry. The results showed that all were degraded, even with relatively low doses of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂).

The second highly significant finding is that “there is statistically significant evidence of elevated porosity of granophyre rock surfaces”. This is centred on the industrial precinct in Murujuga. The report acknowledges industrial pollution is the most likely cause.

This degradation and elevated porosity of the rocks puts the survival of the petroglyphs at risk.

On our research team, Jolam Neumann’s still to be published PhD thesis at the University of Bonn, Germany, considered the impacts of industrial pollution on Murujuga rocks.

He used actual samples of gabbro and granophyre rock collected from Murujuga and simulated six years of weathering under current pollution conditions. He found elevated porosity in both rock surfaces. He also collected the residue to understand what was eroded from the rock and how.

He found there was significant degradation of birnessite (manganese) and kaolinite (clay) from the surface. The dark red/brown surface of the rock became porous and started to break down.

His work confirms industrial emissions are the cause of the elevated porosity in the report. His work shows the seriousness of the porosity: it is symptomatic of a process causing the rapid disintegration of the rock surface.

Damage is ongoing

With Murujuga Rock Art Monitoring Program report showing evidence of damage to the art from pollution, the state government chose to emphasise in their report summary that a defunct power plant from the 1970s and 1980s was likely the culprit.

The report’s data suggests this power plant produced about 3,600 tonnes of NO₂ per year, and less than 400 tonnes of SO₂ per year. Current industry in the immediate area produces more than 13,000 tonnes of NO₂ per year and more than 6,500 tonnes of SO₂.

If the old power plant damaged the art then contemporary industrial emissions will be damaging the rock art at least five times faster.

Neumann also gained access to a piece of rock collected in 1994 by archaeological scientist Robert Bednarik, and stored in his office in Melbourne for the past 30 years.

The area where this rock came from now has elevated porosity, but the Bendarik rock shows no signs of it. This means the bulk of the industrial damage is likely more recent than 1994 – and is ongoing.

Losing 50,000 years of culture

The rock art was formed by engraving into the outer thin red/brown/black surface of the rock, called rock varnish, exposing the blue-grey parent rock beneath.

This rock varnish was made in a process that involved the actions of specialised microbes called cyanobacteria. They concentrate manganese and iron from the environment to form an outer sheath to protect themselves from the harsh desert environment.

The rock varnish forms at an incredibly slow rate: 1 to 10 microns in 1,000 years (a human hair is about 100 microns).

These organisms can only thrive when the rock surface acidity is near neutral (pH 6.5–7). Their manganese sheaths are crucial to the integrity of the rock varnish, it binds it together and holds it to the underlying rock.

If you lose the manganese you lose the rock varnish and the rock art.

Neumann found the proportion of manganese in the Bednarik rock sample was 18.4% by weight. In samples collected in the same area in 2021, the manganese content had fallen to 9.6%. The depth of the varnish was reduced, and the varnish layer was full of holes where the manganese had been degraded.

The damage by industry over the last 26 years was clearly visible.

Increased porosity is reducing the density of the rock varnish layer and leading to its eventual degradation. There is also an absence of cyanobacteria close to the industrial sites, but not at more distant sites, suggesting industrial emissions are eliminating the varnish-forming microbes.

Where to next?

Industrial pollution has degraded the rock art and will continue to do so until the industrial pollution levels at Murujuga are reduced to zero.

There are two well-recognised ways to eliminate NO₂ emissions. One uses selective catalytic reduction to convert NO₂ to nitrogen and water. The second method is to replace all gas burning heat production processes with electricity.

The use of such technologies should form part of the conditions to the ministerial approval of the North West Shelf extension.

Benjamin Smith receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Foundation for Australia-China Relations. Neither of these funding bodies provided funding for the research discussed here and the views expressed here may not reflect those of these funding bodies. The research upon which this Conversation piece is based was funded solely by private donations from concerned citizens. We received no funding for this research from either industry or government.

John Black is retired and receives no government or industry funding. The research upon which this Conversation piece is based was funded solely by private donations from concerned citizens. We received no funding for this research from either industry or government.

– ref. How the North West Shelf expansion risks further damage to Murujuga’s 50,000-year-old rock art – https://theconversation.com/how-the-north-west-shelf-expansion-risks-further-damage-to-murujugas-50-000-year-old-rock-art-257615

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Trevor Mazzucchelli, Associate Professor of Clinical Psychology, Curtin University

If you’re a parent or carer of a child who’s autistic, the odds are you’re spinning more plates than the average person. The emotional, physical and logistical demands stack up, often without the kind of support you need. It can leave you exhausted and wondering if things will ever improve.

Every child is different, and every day can bring new challenges. Some moments are beautiful. Some are overwhelming. Some end in tears and frustration. Just when you think you’re in a routine that works or made some headway, everything can change again.

As a clinical psychologist, this is what parents of autistic children tell me. As a parent of an autistic child, I too experience some of these stresses.

In fact, parents of autistic children have much higher levels of stress than parents of children with other disabilities.

What is autism?

Autism, or autism spectrum disorder, is a developmental condition that affects how a person communicates, interacts with others, and makes sense of the world around them.

It involves a wide range of traits and abilities. But it often involves difficulties with interacting and communicating socially, such as understanding body language or holding a conversation, as well as patterns of restricted or repetitive behaviour.

Autism is usually diagnosed in early childhood. While every child’s experience is unique, it can influence their behaviour, learning and daily routines in ways that affect the whole family.

For parents, the impact is often intense. This is not just about managing meltdowns or navigating therapy waitlists. The stress can affect everything from mental health, relationships, finances and the ability to cope day-to-day.

It’s an incredibly tough gig for many parents and carers.

Why the stress?

Many parents tell me and research confirms that the hardest part isn’t autism itself – it’s everything around it. The long waits for a diagnosis. The out-of-pocket costs to see specialists, or for therapy or educational supports. The endless phone calls and paperwork. Trying to get help, only to hit another wall.

Funding cuts to programs such as the National Disability Insurance Scheme (or NDIS) have removed crucial supports and added to the pressure.

Parents often spend extra time coordinating appointments, supporting school engagement, and advocating for their child. That invisible workload can take a toll, especially when combined with social isolation, lack of respite and little time to care for their own wellbeing.

Chronic stress and burnout are real risks for many parents, especially when the level of support required just isn’t there.

What can parents and carers do?

A few approaches can help lighten the load:

• be kind to yourself, especially on the hard days. Even a short break and some deep breathing to release tension can take the edge off and help you reset. It might not solve everything, but it can give you a small window to regroup and keep going

• ask for help if you’re struggling. Whether it’s from your GP, a psychologist, a parenting helpline or something else. Reaching out is a strength, not a weakness. Informal help can be just as important, for instance from other parents with similar experiences, who just get it. You can find them in online support groups

• research shows evidence-based parenting programs can help families of children with disability feel more confident and less stressed. They can also make it easier to manage tough times and strengthen the parent-child bond. The Australian government offers a free, online, self-paced program, which I co-wrote, to help parents cope.

How friends, family and schools can help

Many parents and carers carry a huge emotional load trying to help their autistic child feel supported in educational settings, such as childcare and schools.

They often become the case manager, counsellor and advocate to make sure their child is included, safe and seen.

If you’re a friend, family member, or part of the school community, try to understand how challenging this can be. The struggle is often ongoing. Parents and carers aren’t being difficult – they’re doing what they can to give their child their best chance.

Compassion, a listening ear, or stepping in to help can make a real difference.

Ongoing support, even small things such as dropping off a meal, helping with school pick-ups, or sending a kind message, can ease the load more than you might realise.

Information and support for parents of autistic children is available. If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Trevor Mazzucchelli is a co-author of Stepping Stones Triple P – Positive Parenting Program and a consultant to Triple P International. The Parenting and Family Support Centre is partly funded by royalties stemming from published resources of the Triple P – Positive Parenting Program, which is developed and owned by The University of Queensland (UQ). Royalties are also distributed to the Faculty of Health and Behavioural Sciences at UQ and contributory authors of published Triple P resources. Triple P International (TPI) Pty Ltd is a private company licensed by UniQuest Pty Ltd on behalf of UQ, to publish and disseminate Triple P worldwide. Trevor has no share or ownership of TPI, but has received and may in the future receive royalties and/or consultancy fees from TPI. Trevor has a child with autism and accesses support through the National Disability Insurance Scheme. He is also a member of the Parenting and Family Research Alliance (PAFRA), a multidisciplinary research collaboration of experts from leading Australian universities and research centres. The alliance is actively involved in conducting research, communication, and advocacy pertaining to parenting, families, and evidence-based parenting support. PAFRA is supported by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course.

– ref. Parents of autistic children are stressed. Here’s what they want you to know – https://theconversation.com/parents-of-autistic-children-are-stressed-heres-what-they-want-you-to-know-256871