Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Victoria Fielding, Lecturer, University of Adelaide

The British royal family is famous for its carefully curated media image. That’s why it was a surprise to see them lose control of the narrative in the wake of what we now know is a serious health crisis befalling Catherine, Princess of Wales (or Kate Middleton as she’s popularly known).

It is clear the nearly 1,000-year-old institution of the monarchy and its tradition of “never complain, never explain” is being tested by social media and its power to spread rumours and misinformation. The palace’s public relations team has underestimated how difficult it is to manage relationships with social media audiences. Their reactive attempts to rein in speculation has turned Catherine’s health challenge into a PR disaster.

Social media, with its lax regulations and freer environment, offers a more
open forum for users to say whatever they like about the royals. It’s served as a hotbed for Catherine conspiracies, particularly on TikTok. These theories are as wild as they are ridiculous, from Catherine being a prisoner in the palace to her hiding in Taylor Swift’s London home.

What should have been a simple announcement to a sympathetic public about a popular royal having cancer turned into a spider’s web of competing conspiracy theories across social media. How did it all go so terribly wrong?

I’ve lost track, what happened?

All was well with the Prince and Princess of Wales when they were filmed attending church on Christmas Day. As usual when royals are out in public, the scene was picture perfect with everyone dutifully smiling for the cameras in “co-ordinated” outfits.

Two weeks later, Kensington Palace announced Catherine had undergone planned abdominal surgery, with palace sources telling media the surgery had been “successful” and she would need two weeks to recover.

On January 29, the palace announced Catherine had returned home to recuperate. Unlike King Charles when he released news of his cancer diagnosis on February 5, Catherine was not photographed leaving hospital. This was the first PR misstep. She had appeared outside hospital soon after giving birth to her three children, but this time she remained uncharacteristically out of the public eye.

Almost a month later, when Prince William unexpectedly withdrew from his godfather’s memorial citing “personal reasons”, social media users started asking “Where is Princess Kate?”.

Read more:
Kate Middleton is having ‘preventive chemotherapy’ for cancer. What does this mean?

Used to a steady stream of content about the royal family, the public were unsurprisingly questioning if there was more to Catherine’s abdominal surgery than they were being told.

In a rare reactive move, the palace tried to quell questions about Catherine’s whereabouts by releasing a statement reiterating that she would not be returning to public duties until Easter.

On March 4, US outlet TMZ published a paparazzi photo of Catherine driving with her mother. Social media audiences asked if it really was Catherine.

Over the next week, conspiracy theories about Catherine’s absence reached frenzied levels. To show everything was fine, Kensington Palace released a Mother’s Day photo of Catherine and her children on their social media accounts. Social media users spotted apparently edited flaws and global news agencies announced “kill orders”, saying the image had been manipulated. The next day, Catherine apologised on social media for editing the photo.

Although royals have been editing their pictures for centuries, it seems particularly digitally naive of the palace’s PR team to release such an obviously edited image into an already cynical social media environment, creating fodder for more conspiracy theories.

Mainstream news outlets then joined social media users in asking questions about Catherine’s absence. Although this media attention did not legitimise wild conspiracies, in some ways it fuelled them.

Days later, TMZ published footage of Catherine and William shopping. At this point in the media chaos, many social media users claimed it was fake.

This intense public speculation finally ended on March 23, when Catherine released a video explaining her extended absence after abdominal surgery was caused by the surgeons discovering cancer.

During a crisis, the public crave transparency, authenticity, honesty and reassurance. These elements were missing in the royal PR team’s carefully worded statements made directly to mainstream media along with reactive, overly curated social media posts.

By providing scant details, the palace seemed to believe they could control public perception. But public image is increasingly difficult to control.

Read more:
Where’s Kate? Speculation about the ‘missing’ princess is proof the Palace’s media playbook needs a re-write

The double-edged sword of social media

After Princess Diana’s death in a paparazzi-chase car accident, privacy laws and media regulations forbade the most invasive breaches of the royal family’s privacy, particularly for her children, princes William and Harry. However, tabloid appetite for uncontrolled access soon returned once the princes became adults.

Recently, Harry and his wife Meghan have been involved in several lawsuits against media companies over breaches of privacy, including phone hacking.

The rise of social media has typically been viewed as a tool that gives royals more control over their image through the curation of their own personal content. Previously, the fact Catherine was the one taking photos of her children was seen as a sign of authenticity and being down to earth (as much as a princess could be).

Yet, social media is both a blessing and a curse for the management of public reputations.

The perpetuation of contested facts and theories on social media in the wake of Princess Catherine’s unexplained absence shows how difficult it is to curate a controlled image using social media. Lack of verified information in mainstream media helps fuel speculative flames.

While PR experts believe it is understandable and appropriate for Catherine and her family to have privacy during this time, more timely, direct and honest communication would have gone a long way
to prevent relentless gossip.

Once rumours and conspiracies gained momentum, the palace perhaps thought the less information provided, the better. However, silence during a crisis just fuels more speculation because the lack of information makes it look like there is something to hide.

Catherine’s personal video announcing her cancer diagnosis helped end the social media frenzy. This shows a simple, clear statement posted by Kensington Palace to social media weeks ago would likely have avoided the PR disaster and provided Catherine the privacy she so clearly needs.

Read more:
The Kate Middleton photo scandal: When does editing become manipulation?

The palace is now being criticised for complicating a situation that was relatively simple in retrospect. Many social media users are also upset Catherine took public blame for the photoshopping incident.

Any organisation that deals with the media to maintain positive reputations, including the British monarchy, has no choice but to adapt to all kinds of media, including social media. The long-time practice of keeping calm and carrying on amid controversy and the 24-hour gossip cycle doesn’t work in the era of TikTok, X and YouTube.

In the absence of trusted information, social media will do what it does best: take mostly innocuous online chatter and amplify it until it goes viral.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Announcing Kate Middleton’s cancer diagnosis should have been simple. But the palace let it get out of hand – https://theconversation.com/announcing-kate-middletons-cancer-diagnosis-should-have-been-simple-but-the-palace-let-it-get-out-of-hand-226490

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kaitlin Day, Lecturer in Human Nutrition, RMIT University

Intermittent fasting has gained popularity in recent years as a dietary approach with potential health benefits. So you might have been surprised to see headlines last week suggesting the practice could increase a person’s risk of death from heart disease.

The news stories were based on recent research which found a link between time-restricted eating, a form of intermittent fasting, and an increased risk of death from cardiovascular disease, or heart disease.

So what can we make of these findings? And how do they measure up with what else we know about intermittent fasting and heart disease?

The study in question

The research was presented as a scientific poster at an American Heart Association conference last week. The full study hasn’t yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal.

The researchers used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a long-running survey that collects information from a large number of people in the United States.

This type of research, known as observational research, involves analysing large groups of people to identify relationships between lifestyle factors and disease. The study covered a 15-year period.

It showed people who ate their meals within an eight-hour window faced a 91% increased risk of dying from heart disease compared to those spreading their meals over 12 to 16 hours. When we look more closely at the data, it suggests 7.5% of those who ate within eight hours died from heart disease during the study, compared to 3.6% of those who ate across 12 to 16 hours.

Read more:
Does intermittent fasting have benefits for our brain?

We don’t know if the authors controlled for other factors that can influence health, such as body weight, medication use or diet quality. It’s likely some of these questions will be answered once the full details of the study are published.

It’s also worth noting that participants may have eaten during a shorter window for a range of reasons – not necessarily because they were intentionally following a time-restricted diet. For example, they may have had a poor appetite due to illness, which could have also influenced the results.

Other research

Although this research may have a number of limitations, its findings aren’t entirely unique. They align with several other published studies using the NHANES data set.

For example, one study showed eating over a longer period of time reduced the risk of death from heart disease by 64% in people with heart failure.

Another study in people with diabetes showed those who ate more frequently had a lower risk of death from heart disease.

A recent study found an overnight fast shorter than ten hours and longer than 14 hours increased the risk dying from of heart disease. This suggests too short a fast could also be a problem.

But I thought intermittent fasting was healthy?

There are conflicting results about intermittent fasting in the scientific literature, partly due to the different types of intermittent fasting.

There’s time restricted eating, which limits eating to a period of time each day, and which the current study looks at. There are also different patterns of fast and feed days, such as the well-known 5:2 diet, where on fast days people generally consume about 25% of their energy needs, while on feed days there is no restriction on food intake.

Despite these different fasting patterns, systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) consistently demonstrate benefits for intermittent fasting in terms of weight loss and heart disease risk factors (for example, blood pressure and cholesterol levels).

RCTs indicate intermittent fasting yields comparable improvements in these areas to other dietary interventions, such as daily moderate energy restriction.

So why do we see such different results?

RCTs directly compare two conditions, such as intermittent fasting versus daily energy restriction, and control for a range of factors that could affect outcomes. So they offer insights into causal relationships we can’t get through observational studies alone.

However, they often focus on specific groups and short-term outcomes. On average, these studies follow participants for around 12 months, leaving long-term effects unknown.

While observational research provides valuable insights into population-level trends over longer periods, it relies on self-reporting and cannot demonstrate cause and effect.

Relying on people to accurately report their own eating habits is tricky, as they may have difficulty remembering what and when they ate. This is a long-standing issue in observational studies and makes relying only on these types of studies to help us understand the relationship between diet and disease challenging.

Read more:
Does it matter what time of day I eat? And can intermittent fasting improve my health? Here’s what the science says

It’s likely the relationship between eating timing and health is more complex than simply eating more or less regularly. Our bodies are controlled by a group of internal clocks (our circadian rhythm), and when our behaviour doesn’t align with these clocks, such as when we eat at unusual times, our bodies can have trouble managing this.

So, is intermittent fasting safe?

There’s no simple answer to this question. RCTs have shown it appears a safe option for weight loss in the short term.

However, people in the NHANES dataset who eat within a limited period of the day appear to be at higher risk of dying from heart disease. Of course, many other factors could be causing them to eat in this way, and influence the results.

When faced with conflicting data, it’s generally agreed among scientists that RCTs provide a higher level of evidence. There are too many unknowns to accept the conclusions of an epidemiological study like this one without asking questions. Unsurprisingly, it has been subject to criticism.

That said, to gain a better understanding of the long-term safety of intermittent fasting, we need to be able follow up individuals in these RCTs over five or ten years.

In the meantime, if you’re interested in trying intermittent fasting, you should speak to a health professional first.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New research suggests intermittent fasting increases the risk of dying from heart disease. But the evidence is mixed – https://theconversation.com/new-research-suggests-intermittent-fasting-increases-the-risk-of-dying-from-heart-disease-but-the-evidence-is-mixed-226241

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Rosin, Senior Lecturer in Political Ecology, Lincoln University, New Zealand

The history of farming is seeded with technological “big bang” moments that have changed the trajectory of whole industries and countries.

Some – such as mechanisation, and the arrival of synthetic fertiliser and pesticides, have transformed agricultural economic and technical systems. Others have involved substitute commodities – artificial flavourings, chemical dyes or synthetic fibres to replace wool – which have threatened the existence of whole farming sectors, including in New Zealand.

The next big disruption is arguably alternative proteins. They promise to introduce a brave new world of environmentally and animal-friendly proteins, produced by microbes in industrial vats or cell division in laboratories.

Proponents argue alternative proteins offer a solution to many of the world’s environmental and social problems.

Notably, the EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, Health included non-animal proteins as integral to a sustainable diet for a stressed planet, making a significant contribution to climate change mitigation.

Most academic publications reflect this optimism about “promissory science”. They focus on technological advancement and solutions that require more investment of time and funding. In this version of the future, we can have our beef (equivalent) and eat it too.

Read more:
Emerging tech in the food, transport and energy sector can help counter the effects of climate change

But what does a shift to alternative proteins mean for farming systems and landscapes in countries where animal protein production sectors are a significant element of rural economies?

For some critics, questions remain as to who benefits, who is substituted out of existence, who captures value and who gets left behind?

Modelling the future

These questions are particularly important for New Zealand, where agricultural sectors generate 80% of export earnings. In competing with traditional agricultural sector, alternative proteins can change the fortunes of entire sectors and regions.

As part of the Protein Futures NZ project (funded through the Our Land and Water National Science Challenge), we used economic modelling to investigate the impacts of alternative proteins on the primary sector and regional land use in New Zealand.

The first step involved finding credible projections of growth for alternative protein production globally. Because most are not yet produced at commercial scales, expectations of their potential and impacts vary significantly.

This uncertainty is evident in the diverse predictions of experts on primary sector. Their assessments ranged from expecting minimal competition for existing farming sectors to foreseeing the complete replacement of traditional animal-based proteins in New Zealand.

We turned to the market assessments conducted by management consulting groups to model what might happen. These pointed to a range of potential growth for alternative proteins that we captured in four scenarios projected to the year 2050.

Read more:
What’s made of legumes but sizzles on the barbie like beef? Australia’s new high-tech meat alternative

The first of the scenarios used current growth trajectories for different forms of alternative protein (plant-based proteins, precision fermentation of protein ingredients, and cellular meat) until 2050. This provided a baseline for comparison.

In this first scenario the growth in global demand for protein outstripped any increases coming from alternative sources. Everyone benefits from the growth in escalating global demand for proteins.

The three other scenarios imagined what would happen to New Zealand’s meat and dairy sectors if there was significant growth in one or more of the alternative protein types.

Our modelling suggested the different alternative proteins would have mixed impact on New Zealand’s agricultural sector. The dairy sector would be particularly sensitive to developments in precision fermentation that produced direct substitutes for casein and whey protein. The number of sheep decreased in scenarios two, three and four while alternative proteins had an inconsistent impact on beef.

Broadly, our modelling showed any significant growth in one or more alternative proteins would result in fewer animals and more plants being grown in New Zealand.

Despite the negative impacts on the meat and dairy sectors, the modelling projected relatively moderate overall economic impacts for New Zealand. Increased production of alternative proteins also showed clear environmental benefits, including lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Time to prepare for alternative proteins

The findings of the project provide much food for thought. At the minimum, artificial proteins will change the world market for some major export sectors.

Our research indicates the need for policy that prepares the primary sector for changing protein markets and governing bodies for changing land use.

We also make the following observations:

• The appeal of alternative proteins lies in their reduced environmental impacts and increased animal welfare. For New Zealand to be competitive in these sectors, producers need to spotlight production practices that mitigate impacts on climate, water, soils, biodiversity and animal welfare.

• There are opportunities to shift production to plant proteins or to plant products that supply the nutrients, usually in a fluid base, which feed the microbes in precision fermentation and the cells in cellular meat.

• New Zealand may also benefit from investment in technologies that take advantage of renewable energy to produce proteins.

Read more:
Less meat, more bugs in our dietary future

History tells us that substitutes for traditional agricultural products can significantly alter the viability of once-profitable commodities.

Alternative proteins will very likely lead to significant shifts in land use alongside improved outcomes for some key environmental and welfare factors. It’s now time to develop policy enabling a resilient response to this impact.

The authors wish to acknowledge the rest of the Protein Futures research team: Jon Manhire, Rob Burton, Stuart Ford, Klaus Mittenzwei, John Reid, Miranda Mirosa, John Saunders, Simon Barber, Sarah O’Connell, Kate Tomlinson, Ann Moriarty, Angus Sinclair Thompson and Brent Paehua. We also thank the industry experts who contributed to interviews.

Christopher Rosin receives funding from the Our Land and Water National Science Challenge..

Hugh Campbell receives funding from the Our Land and Water National Science Challenge. He also participates in development of Agricultural and Rural Policy for Te Pāti Kākāriki – the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand.

– ref. Alternative proteins are here – the next 30 years could be crucial for NZ’s meat and dairy sectors – https://theconversation.com/alternative-proteins-are-here-the-next-30-years-could-be-crucial-for-nzs-meat-and-dairy-sectors-225265

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vigya Sharma, Senior Research Fellow, Sustainable Minerals Institute, The University of Queensland

Shifting Australia’s electricity sector to low-carbon technologies and closing coal plants is vital to tackling climate change. But such transitions are easier said than done.

People and economies are often deeply connected to the coal industry. Coal plants have often been integral to a community for decades, and closing them is a complex social process.

So how do we minimise the social and economic effects of such closures, and ensure communities and regions continue to thrive?

To answer this question, we looked to another sector that’s recently undergone large-scale shutdowns: Australia’s car-making industry. Our research highlights four lessons to help plan the end of the coal-fired power sector.

The huge loss of the car industry

Australia’s coal plants are polluting, ageing and inefficient. Closing them sooner rather than later makes sense.

But the shift is challenging. First, renewable energy must be scaled up to cover the loss of coal-fired power. Second, poorly managed closures can lead to widespread social and economic disruption.

For guidance, we can look to closures in the Australian car industry in recent decades, mostly in South Australia and Victoria. The closures were due to economic and policy shifts which made the domestic industry untenable.

The last closure occurred in October 2017, when Holden shut down its Elizabeth plant after 70 years of operations. The move led to mass job losses. It also disrupted community and social cohesion, leading to family breakdowns and social and health issues among workers.

Read more:
What is a ‘just’ transition to net zero – and why is Australia struggling to get there?

Lessons for coal plant closures

Holden’s closure process was not perfect. Research showed three years after the Elizabeth plant closed, many workers remained financially vulnerable. And while workers were helped into new employment as quickly as possible, this often came at the expense of quality employment, and did not meet the demand for new skills to align with emerging industries.

The Holden experience nonetheless offers lessons for the coal-fired power industry.

Both industries are male-dominated and involve a high proportion of blue-collar workers with low levels of formal education and skills training. Plants are often located in communities dominated by single-income households. The industries are a source of pride for locals and form a major part of people’s social and cultural identity, often across generations.

In our research, we spoke with people from various groups involved in Holden’s closure process. These included the car industry and its supply chain, agencies across all levels of government, community organisations and academia.

Our research highlights four standout lessons:

1. Timing matters

The Elizabeth plant closure was a gradual process that unfolded over several years. This extended timeline allowed most workers, families and businesses to be prepared – as well as they could be – for imminent restructuring.

Holden planned a staged release of workers over three years. This prompted local and state agencies to coordinate resources, and helped workers and their families plan for the transition without experiencing immediate pressure on their social and economic wellbeing.

2. Try innovative solutions

Holden’s “transition centre”, established in 2014, was a one-stop shop where employees could access a range of services and information. A local government representative told us the transition centre:

took care of every aspect of [the worker’s] life […] their social, their health and well-being, their finances.

With the mental health of the workers and their families in mind, for example, the centre provided information about healthy eating and exercising. However, the centre wasn’t always on the cards. As one interviewee observed:

Although Holden’s leadership wanted to make a difference, it wasn’t easy to convince the company to fund the centre. There was no other way […] Government funds were not arriving soon enough and were going to be accessible only to certain employees for certain purposes. At the government’s request, the centre opened its doors to the whole supply chain eventually.

3. Consider families, too

When longstanding industries close, the impact is felt beyond the worker. It changes family dynamics and poses risks to mental health. It also demands new skills such as financial literacy amongst redundant workers and families so they can better manage payouts and future investments.

Research participants told us these issues were overlooked in the early phases of Holden’s closure of the Elizabeth plant. In several cases, poor financial decision-making led to family breakdowns and bankruptcy.

However, the transition team eventually recognised the need to engage with affected families. It organised morning and afternoon tea sessions for workers’ partners, and mailed financial literacy information to employees’ homes.

4. Work together

In the early days of Holden’s closure planning, there was limited coordination between workers and government agencies providing support services to workers and their families.

What’s more, one state government expert closely involved with the transition process said agencies recognised the need for consultation with workers, however:

the translation of the messages into something that was appropriate for the scale of the transition and that responded to the specific needs and aspirations of the community was significantly lacking.

Over time, industry and governments recognised the need to coordinate efforts to engage with and assist workers and their families, to ensure the transition was as smooth as possible.

Navigating a difficult time

Like the car industry shutdowns, the closure of coal-fired power stations is likely to be messy at times – but the negative effects should be managed as well as possible.

The car industry’s experience can guide governments and the private sector in how to minimise disruption for regions, communities and workers.

Read more:
Here’s what happens to workers when coal-fired power plants close. It isn’t good

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Industry shutdowns are messy and painful: 4 lessons Australia’s coal sector can learn from car-makers about bowing out – https://theconversation.com/industry-shutdowns-are-messy-and-painful-4-lessons-australias-coal-sector-can-learn-from-car-makers-about-bowing-out-226011

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gianluca Di Censo, PhD Candidate, University of Adelaide

Sports betting is most popular among Australian young people than any other age group, and this trend has only increased over the past 15 years.

Young males, in particular, are the group most likely to participate in sports betting and face a higher risk of developing gambling issues.

Environmental factors, such as advertising, can make young people more likely to bet on sports. So regulation is essential if we want to prevent young people from gambling-related harm.

Read more:
Premier League’s front-of-shirt gambling ad ban is a flawed approach. Australia should learn from it

Advertising, promotions and marketing techniques

Advertising serves two different purposes. There is the advertising that companies use to set their products apart from their competitors (known as competitive advertising). There is also the advertising companies use to make people more interested in a product (known as primary demand advertising).

Sports betting companies use competitive advertising by promoting their products’ unique features, such as chat features and live match updates, or by offering promotions, such as bonus bets and deposit matches. This type of advertising is most likely to appeal to people who are already involved in sports betting. They are looking for more affordable ways to bet, ways to maximise their winnings, and better features.

Promotions are an effective way to make people bet more. They may be more likely to influence people who gamble to risky levels. Because of this, Australia has taken steps to ban some of these promotions, including sign-up and refer-a-friend offers.

Sports betting companies use a variety of marketing strategies to generate interest in sports betting. For example, they often advertise during live sports broadcasts to generate interest in sports gambling.

This serves two purposes: it presents sports betting as a normal part of being a sports fan and aligns sports betting with the positive values people associate with sports, such as fairness, success and competence.

The impact of celebrities and influencers

Sports betting companies often feature celebrities and athletes in their advertising. This can enhance the appeal of betting, as people transfer their favourable opinions of celebrities and athletes to sports betting.

However, companies can use social media influencers to do this much more effectively. This is because influencers engage more with their followers and appear more relatable than more well-known celebrities.

Companies can use influencers in various ways to promote sports betting. One approach is to pay influencers to appear in advertising campaigns, known as influencer endorsements.

Another approach is sponsored content, where a company pays an influencer to promote its brand or product in its own content. For example, an influencer might create a video about sports betting and mention they bet with a specific betting company.

Content advertising has become increasingly popular in the digital age as people consume more content on a daily basis.

Companies use this strategy by creating content that appeals to their target audience without directly advertising their products. A sports betting company might create a website that shares sports-related news, which would appeal to their target audience of sports fans. This advertising strategy cultivates brand awareness and fosters customer loyalty.

In essence, sports betting advertising goes beyond what people see during commercial breaks. Like all advertising, it appears wherever content is generated and wherever a brand’s target audience is expected to engage with it.

The complexities of a potential ban

Last year’s parliamentary inquiry into online gambling outlines recommendations for a gradual ban of online gambling advertising by 2026. Whether these recommendations are implemented remains to be seen, but it is important to recognise that advertising is now more complex and global than ever before.

How will this recommended ban account for influencer advertising, content advertising, or subtle references to odds on websites that provide scores and live updates of sports events?

How gambling advertising is defined will likely become a crucial issue. In 2018, Italy banned all direct advertising for gambling. To circumvent this ban, betting companies established websites solely focused on sharing sports-related news content using the same name as their betting brand. This allowed them to openly advertise their betting brand during live sporting events.

Read more:
Australia has a strong hand to tackle gambling harm. Will it go all in or fold?

A holistic approach

A complete ban on gambling advertising may soon be implemented in Australia, but it is crucial to consider what exactly defines gambling advertising.

It’s important to involve marketers in the process of implementing an advertising ban because they have the most up-to-date knowledge of current advertising trends; policymakers and researchers might not know about them until years later.

This is a critical step towards preventing sports betting companies from potentially exploiting regulatory loopholes.

A future advertising ban must consider advances in social media marketing strategies, all of which are especially significant for young people.

Gianluca Di Censo receives funding from the Office of Responsible Gambling.

Paul Delfabbro receives funding from state and federal government agencies for research.

– ref. Celebrities, influencers, loopholes: online gambling advertising faces an uncertain future in Australia – https://theconversation.com/celebrities-influencers-loopholes-online-gambling-advertising-faces-an-uncertain-future-in-australia-226315

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Veth, Laureate Professor in Archaeology, The University of Western Australia

Barrow Island, located 60 kilometres off the Pilbara in Western Australia, was once a hill overlooking an expansive coast. This was the northwestern shelf of the Australian continent, now permanently submerged by the ocean.

Our new research, published in Quaternary Science Reviews, shows that Aboriginal people repeatedly lived on portions of this coastal plateau. We have worked closely with coastal Thalanyji Traditional Owners on this island work and also on their sites from the mainland.

This use of the plain likely began 50,000 years ago, and the place remained habitable until rising sea levels cut the island off from the mainland 6,500 years ago.

Read more:
People once lived in a vast region in north-western Australia – and it had an inland sea

A unique time capsule

The northwestern shelf and the submerged coastlines of Australia are immensely significant for understanding how and where First Nations people lived before and during the last ice age.

When the last ice age was at its coldest (24,000 to 19,000 years ago), sea levels worldwide were about 130 metres below current levels. As the ice melted, the sea rose rapidly, eventually flooding the connection between Barrow Island and the mainland.

Since Aboriginal people did not occupy the island after this time, the human archaeological record of Barrow Island is a time capsule, unique in Australia. Most other coastal occupation areas from this period are now beneath the sea, but these drowned landscapes were once vast and habitable.

The largest rock shelter on the island is Boodie Cave, one of Western Australia’s oldest archaeological sites. Excavations here revealed evidence of Aboriginal occupation dating back at least 50,000 years.

Read more:
Cave dig shows the earliest Australians enjoyed a coastal lifestyle

As sea levels fluctuated through time, the distance from Boodie Cave to the seashore varied significantly. Aboriginal people brought shellfish back to Boodie Cave even when it was many kilometres from the coast.

As the sea rose, people’s diets changed. The quantity of shellfish, crabs, turtles and fish consumed in the cave increased through time.

Aboriginal people here mainly used local, silica-rich limestone for crafting their stone tools. While this material was readily accessible, it blunted easily. Instead, people used thick and hard shells from large Baler sea snails to make knives for butchering turtles and dugong.

43,000 years of exchange

In contrast to the cave deposits, the open-air archaeological sites present a different picture. Three years of systematic field surveys recorded over 4,400 flaked and ground stone artefacts from nearly 50 locations.

Excluding one limestone source, most of these stone tools represent geological sources not found on the island. This means they were made out of rocks more typical of the west Pilbara and Ashburton regions.

The artefacts we’ve found on Barrow Island show that Aboriginal people transported and exchanged stone materials from inland or places now under the sea for over 43,000 years.

We don’t yet know why the artefacts in the cave are so different to the ones found in the open air.

The numerous open sites leave a record of how Aboriginal people adapted to sea-level changes. Both the surface and cave records suggest that Aboriginal people used more local limestone and shell tools as rising sea levels cut off access to the mainland or drowned sources.

Imported stone tools were precious and therefore conserved and heavily used for grinding seeds, working harder materials such as wood, and likely for cutting softer materials such as skins and plant fibre.

While early Aboriginal people continued to use coastal resources, they maintained social networks and exchanges with the mainland. The open sites from Barrow Island provide one line of evidence connecting contemporary Aboriginal people to the now-drowned coastal plains, coastlines and continental islands.

An ancestral connection for Thalanyji peoples

Despite the distance of Barrow Island from the mainland for most of the last 6,500 years, Thalanyji knowledge holders refer to the use of the island from both historic-era fishing activities and as forced labourers in the early pearling industry.

They know the Sea Country between the islands, and the songline connections linking the mainland to the islands. Traditional Owners involved in our project see the artefacts as evidence of their ancestral connection to the island, old coastlines and now drowned coastal plain.

The Barrow Island open-air sites are a significant time capsule, offering unique insights into coastal Aboriginal lifeways over tens of thousands of years.

These sites, combined with the cave records, provide scientists and Traditional Owners with invaluable opportunities to understand and preserve Australia’s rich and deep history.

The authors would like to acknowledge the Buurabalayji Thalanyji Aboriginal Corporation, recognised communally according to their cultural preference, as co-authors of this study.

Peter Veth receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Kane Ditchfield receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Peter Kendrick was previously employed by the government of Western Australia, and assisted in implementation of the Barrow Island Archaeology Project throughout its field work period. He consults part time as a zoologist and ecologist to Biota Environmental Sciences.

David W. Zeanah and Fiona Hook do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We have revealed a unique time capsule of Australia’s first coastal people from 50,000 years ago – https://theconversation.com/we-have-revealed-a-unique-time-capsule-of-australias-first-coastal-people-from-50-000-years-ago-225792

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll, conducted March 18–22 from a sample of 1,223, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, four weeks ago. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).

Labor’s worst Newspoll this term occurred in late November, when it was tied with the Coalition at 50–50. In the next three Newspolls, conducted from December to February, Labor led by 52–48, but it has now slid to its second worst Newspoll.

Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% dissatisfied (steady) and 44% satisfied (up one), for a net approval of -7, up one point. Peter Dutton’s net approval slid one point to -15. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 48–34 (47–35 four weeks ago).

This graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since the beginning of this term shows there hasn’t been a recovery since the October Voice referendum. Prior to this referendum, Albanese’s ratings were about net zero, but since then his ratings have been well below zero.

I believe inflation and the cost of living are still negatives for Labor. Morgan’s weekly consumer confidence measure has fallen back recently, and has spent a record 59 successive weeks below 85. In the March Freshwater poll, cost of living was rated important by 72%, up three since February.

Labor won’t contest federal Cook byelection

Nominations were declared last Friday for an April 13 federal byelection in former Liberal PM Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook. Morrison won Cook by a 62.4–37.6 margin against Labor at the 2022 election. Labor won’t contest the byelection, with the Greens and an independent likely to be the Liberals’ only competition.

Tasmanian election: Labor unnecessarily concedes

The most likely outcome of Saturday’s Tasmanian state election is for the Liberals to win 15 of the 35 seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and independents two. The Liberals would be three short of the 18 needed for a majority. Analyst Kevin Bonham has more on the count.

These results won’t be confirmed until the Hare-Clark preference distributions take place after the deadline for receipt of postals passes on April 2.

Read more:
Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority

If the most likely outcome occurred, the JLN would have the balance of power between the Liberals and a Labor and Green bloc. If Labor or the Greens won one more seat, Labor, the Greens and the two independents could form a government without needing the JLN.

However, all this may be moot because Labor has conceded. It appears Labor won’t form a government that includes the Greens. Labor has been out of power in Tasmania since the 2014 state election.

Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system, not a single-member system where majorities for one party are much easier to obtain. If Labor won’t cooperate with the Greens to form government, the next Tasmanian Labor government is not likely to form anytime soon.

Redbridge Victorian poll: Labor down but still far ahead

The Herald Sun on Monday reported that a Victorian Redbridge poll, conducted March 14–20 from a sample of 1,559, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the last Victorian Redbridge poll in December. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (down three) and 16% for all Others (up two).

The Herald Sun’s report says this is the first time the Coalition has had a primary vote lead over Labor in Victoria since June 2021. This may apply to Redbridge, but a Victorian Morgan poll that was conducted in July 2023 after the Commonwealth Games were axed had the Coalition ahead on primary votes, and Labor’s two party lead at 53–47.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor drops to a 51–49 lead in Newspoll; Labor chooses to concede Tasmanian election – https://theconversation.com/labor-drops-to-a-51-49-lead-in-newspoll-labor-chooses-to-concede-tasmanian-election-226463

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carolyn Holbrook, Associate Professor in History, Deakin University

Vaping is a pressing public health issue. While adult smoking rates continue to fall, vaping rates are rising. Seven per cent of adults now vape daily, up nearly three-fold since 2019. Most alarmingly, the rate of daily vaping among 18-to-24-year-olds has climbed from 5% in 2019 to 21% in 2023.

Nicotine, especially in high doses, is known to be harmful to brain development. Vaping products also contain more than 200 chemicals, some of them known carcinogens.

While the research on long-term health harms of non-therapeutic vaping is still emerging, there is an urgent need for governments to act in the interests of public health.

Historical parallels

We have confronted youth nicotine addiction before. Lessons can be learned from Australia’s decades-long, world-leading efforts to control tobacco.

Firstly, global tobacco organisations now control the vaping industry. Like smoking historically, vapes are aggressively marketed to young people.

In 1969, in the early years of tobacco control, 36% of adults smoked daily, but prevalence was declining. Tobacco companies sought new young buyers for their products. They flooded television and radio with advertising, which rapidly drove up youth smoking. We are seeing the devastating effects today of tobacco-induced disease.

Anti-tobacco advocates in 1971 pressured a reluctant Commonwealth government to ban tobacco advertising. They used celebrity-studded, satirical television adverts showing smoking’s health harms, drumming up media attention, and lobbied politicians using international data showing the powerful effect cigarette advertising had on promoting youth smoking.

On the back of growing public outrage, politicians eventually banned tobacco advertising on television and radio by 1977.

Read more:
How the push to end tobacco advertising in the 1970s could be used to curb gambling ads today

The rise of the Quit campaigns

Despite this success, more was needed to drive down smoking. In 1978, the Commonwealth government and the NSW Department of Health funded a “Quit for Life” campaign in northern NSW to discover how best to help smokers to quit.

It revealed that memorable ads – notably the famous “Sponge” ad – combined with counselling and medical assistance were most effective.

“Quit”-branded campaigns were then rolled out in Western Australia (1982), Sydney and Melbourne (1983) and South Australia (1984).

The first Quitline providing guidance on accessing support was trialled in Sydney. In Victoria, a dedicated organisation, Quit Victoria, was established in 1985. From 1987, it received funding from the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth), using revenue from cigarette taxes.

Each campaign relied on the same tools: anti-smoking education complemented by a Quitline and other practical support for smokers to quit.

Banishing smoking from public space

Tobacco companies pivoted to sport sponsorship in the 1980s to keep their brands in public view. In response, anti-smoking advocates pushed to close legislative loopholes allowing this “sports-washing”, and Quit Victoria began sponsoring sport.

But the problem of youth smoking re-emerged due to a lack of co-ordinated national action. By the mid-1990s, smoking prevalence among young people was back at 30%.

Advocates pushed for a nationwide education campaign using a consistent message: “Every cigarette is doing you damage”. A nation-wide Quitline service was launched, as were new anti-smoking regulations, including smoke-free areas, stronger health harm warnings on cigarette packs, and increased taxation. Youth smoking rapidly decreased.

However, success was not guaranteed, and advocates continued pressing. Through the early 2000s, each state progressively banned point-of-sale tobacco advertising, including the visual display of packs.

A Commonwealth-led agreement with the states to co-ordinate their laws led to a nationwide indoor smoking ban from July 1 2007. And, in a world first, the Gillard government legislated the plain packaging of tobacco, finally removing all tobacco branding.

Read more:
Australia’s restrictive vaping and tobacco policies are fuelling a lucrative and dangerous black market

Three major lessons

This history offers important lessons for the vaping crisis:

• the importance of a multi-pronged strategy, which includes stressing that vaping is addictive and unhealthy, and evidence-based advocacy to government

• the need to provide appropriate supports to help people quit

• a consistent, national approach targeting people of all ages, especially young people, before they become nicotine-dependent.

Tobacco-control efforts were evidence-based, from the science of smoking’s health harms, to the power of cigarette advertising on youth, to the best response strategies.

Public education campaigns about the harms of vapes must also be evidence-based and sophisticated in their targeting of vaping’s appeal.

More than four decades of “Quit” campaigning show the value of complementary resources, including counselling and medical support. Practical supports to help people to stop vaping should be strengthened wherever needed.

Finally, the Commonwealth must continue to lead. The laws implemented by federal Health Minister Mark Butler on March 1 2024 enforce the existing ban on the import of all unregulated vapes, nicotine and non-nicotine alike. The second phase of laws promised by the Commonwealth on March 21 enforces existing retail bans that have been widely flouted. It requires the states to assist.

This is a complicated issue of public policy because — despite what some opponents have suggested — vapes are not prohibited, but regulated. This means they are accessible by prescription for their original intended use: to quit smoking.

To make this work, the Commonwealth must encourage states to enforce bans. It must press for consistent laws across the country regarding the enforcement of vape-free areas. It must also seek a national approach to ensuring doctors and other healthcare providers have up-to-date evidence on prescribing therapeutic e-cigarettes for people seeking to quit smoking.

The health minister should be commended for the strong steps he has taken to tackle non-therapeutic vaping. The government should also take comfort in the knowledge it has the legacy of Australia’s considerable success in tobacco control on its side.

However, a challenge lies ahead with a politically motivated opposition and a Greens cross-bench. Both misrepresent current policy as “prohibition” when it is merely regulation to keep vapes away from young people.

We’ve taken smoking from “normal” to “uncommon”. We can do the same with vaping when these laws come into full effect, providing states and territories are equipped to enforce them.

Carolyn Holbrook receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Thomas Kehoe receives funding from the Australian Research Council and is an employee of Cancer Council Victoria.

– ref. We’ve taken smoking from ‘normal’ to ‘uncommon’ and we can do the same with vaping – here’s how – https://theconversation.com/weve-taken-smoking-from-normal-to-uncommon-and-we-can-do-the-same-with-vaping-heres-how-226117

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Duane Hamacher, Associate Professor, The University of Melbourne

It’s eclipse season. The Sun, Earth and Moon are aligned so it’s possible for the Earth and Moon to cast each other into shadow.

A faint lunar eclipse will occur on March 25, visible at dusk from Australia and eastern Asia, at dawn from western Africa and Europe, and for much of the night from the Americas. Two weeks later, on April 8, a total solar eclipse will sweep across North America.

These events are a good time to think about an infamous incident 520 years ago, in which an eclipse prediction was supposedly used to exploit an Indigenous population. The incident has shaped how we think about astronomy and Indigenous cultures – but the real story is far more complex.

Read more:
How eclipses were regarded as omens in the ancient world

Columbus and the eclipse

In June 1503, on his fourth voyage to the Americas, Italian explorer Christopher Columbus and his crew became stranded on Jamaica. They were saved by the Indigenous Taíno people, who gave them food and provisions.

As months passed, tensions grew. Columbus’s crew threatened mutiny, while the Taíno grew frustrated with providing so much for so little in return. By February, the Taíno had reached their breaking point and stopped providing food.

Supposedly, Columbus then consulted an astronomical almanac and discovered a lunar eclipse was forecast for February 29 1504. He took advantage of this knowledge to trick the Taíno, threatening to use his “magic power” to turn the Moon a deep red – “inflamed with wrath” – if they refused to provide supplies.

According to Columbus, this worked and the fearful Taíno continued to supply his crew until relief arrived months later. This incident inspired the idea of the “convenient eclipse”, which has become a familiar trope in works including Mark Twain’s A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court (1889) and The Adventures of Tintin (1949).

But is there truth to the trope? How much did Indigenous peoples really know about eclipses?

Merlpal Maru Pathanu

In the Torres Strait, knowledge of the stars is central to culture and identity. Traditionally, special people were chosen for years of intense instruction in the art of star knowledge, which occurred in a secretive place of higher learning called the kwod. They would be initiated as “Zugubau Mabaig”, a western Islander term meaning “star man” – an astronomer.

Mualgal man David Bosun, a talented artist and son of a Zugubau Mabaig, explains that these individuals paid careful attention to all things celestial. They kept constant watch over the stars to inform their Buai (kinship group) when to plant and harvest gardens, hunt and fish, travel and hold ceremonies.

Read more:
A shark in the stars: astronomy and culture in the Torres Strait

The final stage of Zugubau Mabaig initiation involved a rare celestial event. Initiates were required to prove their bravery as well as their mental skill by taking the head of an enemy, particularly a sorcerer. In this way they would absorb that person’s powerful magic.

Headhunting raids occurred immediately after a total lunar eclipse, signalled by the blood red appearance of the Moon. During the eclipse, communities performed a ceremony in which dancers donned a special dhari (headdress) as they systematically chanted the names of all the surrounding islands.

The island named when the Moon emerged from the eclipse was the home of the sorcerers they planned to attack. Women and children sought shelter while the men prepared for war. The ceremony, named Merlpal Maru Pathanu (“the ghost has taken the spirit of the Moon”), was planned well in advance by the Zugubau Mabaig.

How was this done?

Predicting an eclipse

The Moon does not orbit Earth in the same plane Earth orbits the Sun. It’s off by a few degrees. The position of the Moon appears to zigzag across the sky over a 29.5-day lunar month. When it crosses the plane connecting Earth and the Sun, and the three bodies are in a straight line, we see an eclipse.

We know that ancient cultures including the Chinese and Babylonians possessed the ability to predict eclipses, and it is rather difficult to do. How did the Zugubau Mabaig accomplish it?

Read more:
The Memory Code: how oral cultures memorise so much information

There are some things they would know. First, lunar eclipses only occur during a full moon, and solar eclipses during a new moon.

Second are the “eclipse seasons”: times when the planes of Earth, Moon and the Sun can intersect to form an eclipse. This happens twice a year. Each season lasts around 35 days, and repeats six months later.

Third is the Saros cycle: eclipses repeat every 223 lunar months (approximately 18 years and 11.3 days).

The details are highly complex. But it’s clear that predicting an eclipse requires careful, long-term observations and keeping detailed records, skills Torres Strait Islander astronomers have long possessed.

Flipping the narrative

The Zugubau Mabaig eclipse forecasts turn a common understanding of the history of science on its head. Indigenous peoples did, in fact, develop the ability to predict eclipses.

Perhaps the real situation is better captured in a short story called El Eclipse (1972), by Honduran writer Augusto Monterroso.

In the story, a Spanish priest is captured by Maya in Guatemala, who opt to sacrifice him. He tries to exploit his knowledge that a solar eclipse will occur that day to trick his captors, but the Maya look at the priest with a sense of incredulity. Two hours later, he meets his fate on the altar during the totality of the eclipse.

As the Sun goes dark and the priest’s blood is spilled, a Maya astronomer recites the dates of all the upcoming eclipses, solar and lunar. The Maya had already predicted them.

The truth behind this story is found in the Dresden Codex, a thousand-year-old book of Maya records that includes tables of eclipse predictions.

Learn more at www.aboriginalastronomy.com.au

Duane Hamacher received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Laby Foundation, the Indigenous Knowledge Institute, and the University of Melbourne.

David Bosun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘The ghost has taken the spirit of the Moon’: how Torres Strait Islanders predict eclipses – https://theconversation.com/the-ghost-has-taken-the-spirit-of-the-moon-how-torres-strait-islanders-predict-eclipses-226005

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joyce Siette, Research Theme Fellow in Health and Wellbeing, Western Sydney University

If you or a loved one have noticed changes in your memory or thinking as you’ve grown older, this could reflect typical changes that occur with ageing. In some cases though, it might suggest something more, such as the onset of dementia.

The best thing to do if you have concerns is to make an appointment with your GP, who will probably run some tests. Assessment is important because if there is something more going on, early diagnosis can enable prompt access to the right interventions, supports and care.

But current methods of dementia screening have limitations, and testing can be daunting for patients.

Our research suggests virtual reality (VR) could be a useful cognitive screening tool, and mitigate some of the challenges associated with current testing methods, opening up the possibility it may one day play a role in dementia diagnosis.

Where current testing is falling short

If someone is worried about their memory and thinking, their GP might ask them to complete a series of quick tasks that check things like the ability to follow simple instructions, basic arithmetic, memory and orientation.

These sorts of screening tools are really good at confirming cognitive problems that may already be very apparent. But commonly used screening tests are not always so good at detecting early and more subtle difficulties with memory and thinking, meaning such changes could be missed until they get worse.

Read more:
These 12 things can reduce your dementia risk – but many Australians don’t know them all

A clinical neuropsychological assessment is better equipped to detect early changes. This involves a comprehensive review of a patient’s personal and medical history, and detailed assessment of cognitive functions, including attention, language, memory, executive functioning, mood factors and more. However, this can be costly and the testing can take several hours.

Testing is also somewhat removed from everyday experience, not directly tapping into activities of daily living.

Enter virtual reality

VR technology uses computer-generated environments to create immersive experiences that feel like real life. While VR is often used for entertainment, it has increasingly found applications in health care, including in rehabilitation and falls prevention.

Using VR for cognitive screening is still a new area. VR-based cognitive tests generally create a scenario such as shopping at a supermarket or driving around a city to ascertain how a person would perform in these situations.

Notably, they engage various senses and cognitive processes such as sight, sound and spatial awareness in immersive ways. All this may reveal subtle impairments which can be missed by standard methods.

VR assessments are also often more engaging and enjoyable, potentially reducing anxiety for those who may feel uneasy in traditional testing environments, and improving compliance compared to standard assessments.

Most studies of VR-based cognitive tests have explored their capacity to pick up impairments in spatial memory (the ability to remember where something is located and how to get there), and the results have been promising.

Given VR’s potential for assisting with diagnosis of cognitive impairment and dementia remains largely untapped, our team developed an online computerised game (referred to as semi-immersive VR) to see how well a person can remember, recall and complete everyday tasks. In our VR game, which lasts about 20 minutes, the user role plays a waiter in a cafe and receives a score on their performance.

To assess its potential, we enlisted more than 140 people to play the game and provide feedback. The results of this research are published across three recent papers.

Testing our VR tool

In our most recently published study, we wanted to verify the accuracy and sensitivity of our VR game to assess cognitive abilities.

We compared our test to an existing screening tool (called the TICS-M) in more than 130 adults. We found our VR task was able to capture meaningful aspects of cognitive function, including recalling food items and spatial memory.

We also found younger adults performed better in the game than older adults, which echoes the pattern commonly seen in regular memory tests.

In a separate study, we followed ten adults aged over 65 while they completed the game, and interviewed them afterwards. We wanted to understand how this group – who the tool would target – perceived the task.

These seniors told us they found the game user-friendly and believed it was a promising tool for screening memory. They described the game as engaging and immersive, expressing enthusiasm to continue playing. They didn’t find the task created anxiety.

Read more:
We gave palliative care patients VR therapy. More than 50% said it helped reduce pain and depression symptoms

For a third study, we spoke to seven health-care professionals about the tool. Overall they gave positive feedback, and noted its dynamic approach to age-old diagnostic challenges.

However, they did flag some concerns and potential barriers to implementing this sort of tool. These included resource constraints in clinical practice (such as time and space to carry out the assessment) and whether it would be accessible for people with limited technological skills. There was also some scepticism about whether the tool would be an accurate method to assist with dementia diagnosis.

While our initial research suggests this tool could be a promising way to assess cognitive performance, this is not the same as diagnosing dementia. To improve the test’s ability to accurately detect those who likely have dementia, we’ll need to make it more specific for that purpose, and carry out further research to validate its effectiveness.

We’ll be conducting more testing of the game soon. Anyone interested in giving it a go to help with our research can register on our team’s website.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We created a VR tool to test brain function. It could one day help diagnose dementia – https://theconversation.com/we-created-a-vr-tool-to-test-brain-function-it-could-one-day-help-diagnose-dementia-220946

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Angel Zhong, Associate Professor of Finance, RMIT University

Corporate Australia loves a big merger. And amid a growing flurry of them across the business scene, a new blockbuster has emerged.

All eyes are on two titans of the pharmacy industry – Chemist Warehouse and Sigma Healthcare. They are poised to join forces under an A$8.8 billion deal, which could radically reshape the way Australians access medication and other health products.

Mergers can lower business operating costs and make companies more efficient. But reduced competition in any sector typically leads to higher prices for consumers.

What could this deal by “Australia’s cheapest chemist” mean for everyday Australians and their wallets?

An unmatched pharmacy giant

If the proposed merger goes ahead, the new entity will be enormous – far bigger than any of its individual competitors.

It will combine the market power of about 600 existing Chemist Warehouse outlets with more than 1,200 pharmacies currently aligned to Sigma as a wholesaler, giving it more than 26% market share.

Sigma is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), meaning its shares can already be bought and sold by the public.

Through the merger, privately owned Chemist Warehouse, whose surging profits have excited potential investors, will also get a backdoor entrance to the ASX without undergoing a lengthy initial public offering process.

Who the players are

Chemist Warehouse has earned a reputation as the “Bunnings of pharmacies”, famous for its perceived affordability.

It has established a strong retail presence nationally, with franchise outlets stocking not only prescription and over-the-counter medicines, but also a huge range of other health products such as vitamins, cosmetics and toiletries.

Sigma Healthcare, on the other hand, operates retail pharmacy chains including Amcal and Discount Drug Store.

It is also one of top three largest pharmaceutical wholesalers in Australia, with a broad customer base.

This merger is a masterful blend of two business strategies:

• vertical integration – buying part of your own supply chain
• horizontal integration – acquiring a competing business.

The new entity will be able to independently source and sell its own products, fully controlling its own ecosystem of wholesale, distribution and retail pharmacies.

How could this affect competition and consumers?

Economic theory tells us that for consumers, mergers can be a double-edged sword.

On the one hand, they often increase business efficiency, scale and bargaining power. These cost savings may translate into lower prices for consumers.

In some industries, mergers have reduced prices by more than 5%.

However, the decrease in competition brought about through a merger can allow companies to get away with charging higher prices, or even lowering the quality of their product offering.

Evidence from the US shows that in the consumer packaged goods sector, which includes drugs and other healthcare products, mergers increased prices by 1.5% on average and lowered the total volume of goods sold by 2.3%.

In Australia, tight regulation of prescription medications means there isn’t much leeway to increase prices for medicines covered under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS).

But Chemist Warehouse earns a whopping 67% of its revenue from its non-prescription “front of store” sales, compared to a rate of 27% at other Australian pharmacies.

This gives the giant a unique opportunity to capitalise on increased market power in the Australian context.

Calls to increase competition

There have long been calls to enhance competition in Australia’s pharmacy sector.

The Harper National Competition Policy Review singled out the Community Pharmacy Agreement for stifling competition, saying its rigid location and ownership restrictions pose significant barriers for new players.

This has largely prevented Australia following in the steps of the United States and Europe, where deregulation in this industry has allowed consumers to buy over-the-counter medicines in supermarkets and gas stations.

Read more:
A loaf of bread and a packet of pills: how supermarket pharmacies could change the way we shop

This merger stands to further weaken competition in an industry already held back by such restrictions.

Australian retail is already highly concentrated

Australia’s high level of industry concentration – where markets are controlled by a small number of large players – has found itself in the spotlight amid a stubborn cost of living crisis.

Read more:
Flying under the radar: Australia’s silent and growing competition crisis

One way to assess market concentration is to measure the share of the market held by the top four companies.

In Australia, the top four players in the pharmacy sector collectively hold over 50% of the market.

As industry concentration has intensified across other sectors, many larger Australian corporations have been seen to increase their price mark-ups and suppress wage growth.

If successful, this merger will further entrench the pharmacy sector among banks, supermarkets and petrol retailers in the ranks of the most concentrated Australian industries.

Will it go ahead?

There are still significant hurdles for this merger to go ahead.

The move has to be approved by shareholders in both companies, and more importantly, receive a green light from the ACCC, Australia’s competition watchdog.

Submissions to the ACCC’s formal enquiry into the merger will close this week.

However, the ACCC has struggled to block similar mergers in the past, such as the seismic ANZ-Suncorp deal that was finally approved in February. Regulatory obstacles alone may not be enough to prevent this consolidation.

Read more:
ANZ’s takeover of Suncorp will reduce bank competition – but will that be enough to block it?

Australians have a vested interest in a healthy competitive landscape. Reduced competition in the pharmacy sector will affect the pricing pressures on every store, not just the major players.

Don’t be surprised down the road if a visit to your local pharmacy shocks you with pricier cosmetics, sunglasses and even jellybeans!

Angel Zhong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australia’s biggest chemist is merging with a giant wholesaler. Could we soon be paying more? – https://theconversation.com/australias-biggest-chemist-is-merging-with-a-giant-wholesaler-could-we-soon-be-paying-more-226002

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Albanese government will tell the Fair Work Commission it should ensure the real wages of low paid workers do not go backwards.

In its submission to the Annual Wage Review, the government stresses the July 1 tax cut should be on top of the wage increase for these workers, rather than a substitute for it.

The national minimum wage at present is just over $45,900 a year. This is about 55% of median full-time earnings.

The submission, to be handed to the commission on Thursday, says: “There is no sign of a wage-price spiral developing in Australia and medium-term inflation expectations are well anchored.

“Despite increases in nominal wages, and the return of annual real wages growth, the real value of award wages has been eroded in recent years given the global inflationary environment.

“Low paid workers and their families are particularly affected by cost-of-living pressures because they typically do not have savings to draw on to cover rising costs.”

The government’s position is in line with what it has put in its last two submissions to the commission.

The submission says inflation is expected to moderate further, which would improve real wages and ease some pressure on households.

“However, the current economic environment is challenging, with many households experiencing cost of living pressures.”

The tax cuts are “designed to be in addition to any increase in award and minimum wages” granted by the review.

Gender to form part of the national wage case

On the gender pay gap, the submission argues: “As women are disproportionately represented in low-paid and award-reliant jobs, increases in the minimum wage are likely to decrease the gender pay gap and increase the incentive to enter the workforce or work more hours.” This might increase the female participation rate.

The government’s December 2022 amendments to the Fair Work Act embed the principle of gender equality in the commission’s decision-making processes.

In April the commission will have before it research on gender pay equity it commissioned to inform its decision making processes.

The government has reserved the right to make a further submission when that research is published. The gender pay gap has fallen, and on one measure is currently 12%.

Earlier this month the Fair Work Commission awarded aged care workers a historic “work value” pay rise, worth up to 28%.

Low wage earners are the government’s priority

The government says it is not suggesting that wages across the board should automatically increase with inflation, or that inflation should be the only consideration in determining wages.

“Over the longer-term, productivity is the key driver of real wage growth,” the submission says.

Annual real wages grew 0.1% through the year to the December quarter. For the first time in more than five years, quarterly real wages grew for three consecutive quarters.

Wages are growing at an annualised average of 4% under Labor, which is nearly double the average over the nine years before.

Last week’s unemployment figure surprised observers, falling to 3.7% in February, from 4.1% in January.

Inflation update due this week

Inflation has fallen to 4.1% through the year to the December quarter. Monthly inflation figures – which can be volatile – will be out on Wednesday.

The government has said that while inflation is still a primary challenge, the balance of risks is shifting to growth, which will be a main emphasis in the May budget.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said: “While we’ve made welcome progress on inflation and seen a return to real wages growth earlier than forecast, many Australians are still under pressure – particularly low paid workers.”

Employment Minister Tony Burke said the government’s support for low paid workers had been “an essential part of returning to real wage growth”.

“After a decade where keeping wages low was a deliberate design feature this is what it looks like when a government deliberately gets wages moving,” he said.

Minister for Women Katy Gallagher said: “Women are disproportionately represented in low-paid and award reliant jobs, and we don’t want to see them going backwards in their pay.

“Despite the recent improvement in the gender pay gap, there remains a substantial disparity in earnings between men and women and we are committed to continue to work to close this gap.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Albanese government to Fair Work Commission: Don’t let real wages go backwards for the low paid – https://theconversation.com/albanese-government-to-fair-work-commission-dont-let-real-wages-go-backwards-for-the-low-paid-226474

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Olver, Adjunct Professsor, School of Psychology, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide

Catherine, Princess of Wales, is undergoing treatment for cancer. In a video thanking followers for their messages of support after her major abdominal surgery, the Princess of Wales explained, “tests after the operation found cancer had been present.”

“My medical team therefore advised that I should undergo a course of preventative chemotherapy and I am now in the early stages of that treatment,” she said in the two-minute video.

No further details have been released about the Princess of Wales’ treatment.

But many have been asking what preventive chemotherapy is and how effective it can be. Here’s what we know about this type of treatment.

It’s not the same as preventing cancer

To prevent cancer developing, lifestyle changes such as diet, exercise and sun protection are recommended.

Tamoxifen, a hormone therapy drug can be used to reduce the risk of cancer for some patients at high risk of breast cancer.

Aspirin can also be used for those at high risk of bowel and other cancers.

How can chemotherapy be used as preventive therapy?

In terms of treating cancer, prevention refers to giving chemotherapy after the cancer has been removed, to prevent the cancer from returning.

If a cancer is localised (limited to a certain part of the body) with no evidence on scans of it spreading to distant sites, local treatments such as surgery or radiotherapy can remove all of the cancer.

If, however, cancer is first detected after it has spread to distant parts of the body at diagnosis, clinicians use treatments such as chemotherapy (anti-cancer drugs), hormones or immunotherapy, which circulate around the body .

The other use for chemotherapy is to add it before or after surgery or radiotherapy, to prevent the primary cancer coming back. The surgery may have cured the cancer. However, in some cases, undetectable microscopic cells may have spread into the bloodstream to distant sites. This will result in the cancer returning, months or years later.

With some cancers, treatment with chemotherapy, given before or after the local surgery or radiotherapy, can kill those cells and prevent the cancer coming back.

If we can’t see these cells, how do we know that giving additional chemotherapy to prevent recurrence is effective? We’ve learnt this from clinical trials. Researchers have compared patients who had surgery only with those whose surgery was followed by additional (or often called adjuvant) chemotherapy. The additional therapy resulted in patients not relapsing and surviving longer.

Read more:
Princess of Wales and King Charles: one in two people develop cancer during their lives – the diseases and treatments explained

How effective is preventive therapy?

The effectiveness of preventive therapy depends on the type of cancer and the type of chemotherapy.

Let’s consider the common example of bowel cancer, which is at high risk of returning after surgery because of its size or spread to local lymph glands. The first chemotherapy tested improved survival by 15%. With more intense chemotherapy, the chance of surviving six years is approaching 80%.

Preventive chemotherapy is usually given for three to six months.

How does chemotherapy work?

Many of the chemotherapy drugs stop cancer cells dividing by disrupting the DNA (genetic material) in the centre of the cells. To improve efficacy, drugs which work at different sites in the cell are given in combinations.

Chemotherapy is not selective for cancer cells. It kills any dividing cells.

But cancers consist of a higher proportion of dividing cells than the normal body cells. A greater proportion of the cancer is killed with each course of chemotherapy.

Normal cells can recover between courses, which are usually given three to four weeks apart.

Read more:
Explainer: what is chemotherapy and how does it work?

What are the side effects?

The side effects of chemotherapy are usually reversible and are seen in parts of the body where there is normally a high turnover of cells.

The production of blood cells, for example, is temporarily disrupted. When your white blood cell count is low, there is an increased risk of infection.

Cell death in the lining of the gut leads to mouth ulcers, nausea and vomiting and bowel disturbance.

Certain drugs sometimes given during chemotherapy can attack other organs, such as causing numbness in the hands and feet.

There are also generalised symptoms such as fatigue.

Given that preventive chemotherapy given after surgery starts when there is no evidence of any cancer remaining after local surgery, patients can usually resume normal activities within weeks of completing the courses of chemotherapy.

Ian Olver receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Kate Middleton is having ‘preventive chemotherapy’ for cancer. What does this mean? – https://theconversation.com/kate-middleton-is-having-preventive-chemotherapy-for-cancer-what-does-this-mean-226461

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Greg Barton, Chair in Global Islamic Politics, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation; Scholar -In-Residence Asia Society Australia, Deakin University

It appears almost certain the brutal assault on a Russian crowd settling down to watch a rock concert in Moscow on Friday night was an Islamist terrorist attack.

At least 133 people were left dead and scores more were injured after gunmen with automatic weapons stormed the Crocus City Hall in Moscow and opened fire, triggering a stampede.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, initially through its Amaq media channel and then directly. The modus operandi of the attack also fits with previous Islamic State attacks.

It has been widely reported the attack was the work of Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), a branch established in 2015 in Afghanistan.

So who is this group, why would they attack Russia and what does this mean for the broader terrorism threat?

Read more:
Iran terror blast highlights success – and growing risk – of ISIS-K regional strategy

What is ISIS-K?

ISIS-K is the Islamic State branch that has most consistently and energetically attempted terrorist attacks across Europe, including in Russia. ISIS-K has planned some 21 attacks in nine countries in the past year, up from eight the previous year.

ISIS-K had been under tremendous pressure from the Afghan Special Forces and American troops before the United States full withdrew from the country in 2021. Although that pressure has continued under Taliban rule, ISIS-K has grown in strength in recent years, with several thousand fighters now operating in almost every one of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces.

If ISIS-K is indeed responsible for the Moscow attack, we should prepare for further attempted attacks – not just in Russia but across Europe.

European authorities have arrested ISIS-K operatives on multiple occasions. After years of warnings that Islamic State was rebuilding the capacity and resolve to resume an international terrorist campaign, Friday’s attack shows the threat is immediate and substantial.

Read more:
A string of assassinations in Afghanistan point to ISIS-K resurgence – and US officials warn of possible attacks on American interests in next 6 months

Earlier this month, the US, together with five other nations, had shared intelligence they had of ISIS-K planning for attacks in Moscow. But these warnings were, as recently as last week, rejected by President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin as being part of an attempt to discredit Russia.

The attack comes at the worst possible moment for Russia’s despotic leader, in the wake of his successful “election campaign” to claim a mandate for a further six years in power.

And it is perhaps for this reason that Putin’s five-minute televised address on Saturday, in which he directed blame toward Ukraine, came so late.

We don’t yet know whether the Kremlin will continue to blame Ukraine or the West for the attack, or if it will pivot to accept Islamic State was responsible.

Either way, it’s likely to respond with a wave of violence, cracking down on Russia’s Muslim minority communities in the North Caucasus region and beyond.

Why would they target Russia?

Both Islamic State in general, and ISIS-K in particular, have long proclaimed their intention of striking Russia.

They have cited Russia’s earlier military occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s and its long history of crackdowns on Muslim communities in Russia, particularly in the North Caucasus. They have also cited Russia’s role in providing a lifeline to the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

But it was also likely opportunity and personnel that led the group to select a soft target in Moscow, as much as anything else.

Islamic State carried out multiple attacks in Russia from 2016–19, while several more plots were disrupted from 2021–23.

Many of the ISIS-K militants arrested across Europe, including in Russia, over the past two years have been Russian nationals and people from Central Asia with links to Russia.

The most recent arrests occurred this month when Russian authorities claimed they prevented a planned attack on a synagogue in Moscow.

And last month, a Russian national accused of having Islamic State links was arrested in Poland, while another was arrested working at a nuclear facility under construction in Turkey.

In recent years, the vast majority of successful ISIS-K attacks have been in Afghanistan, with many targeting the minority Shia Muslim Hazara community.

For instance, the group launched a massive suicide bombing outside the Kabul airport in August 2021, in the midst of the chaotic evacuation of Kabul, which resulted in around 170 civilians and 13 US military personnel being killed.

ISIS-K also carried out a bombing of the Russian Embassy in Kabul in September 2022, killing at least six.

In January of this year, ISIS-K launched a massive suicide bombing in Kerman, Iran, killing nearly 100 people at a ceremony to mark the fourth anniversary of the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani.

What next for Putin and the broader terrorism threat?

Terrorist attacks, including those in brutal regimes like Iran or Russia, are tragic assaults on ordinary people who are not to blame for the politics of policies of the governments they are forced to live under.

When attacked, authoritarian regimes tend to respond with brutal reprisals that are likely to lead to cycles of violence, with less restraint and accountability than is typically the case with counter-terrorism operations in open societies.

Friday night’s attack in Moscow was nightmarish, but sadly the horror is likely to be just the beginning.

Regardless of how Putin and the Kremlin choose to respond, the attack comes as a reminder that the threat of terrorism posed by groups like Islamic State and al-Qaeda is now on the rise again. After five years of mostly operating in western Asia, the Middle East and Africa, these groups now pose a renewed threat to the West.

The continued growth of both ISIS-K and al-Qaeda under Taliban rule in Afghanistan should concern us much more than we have been acknowledging.

Friday’s attack is a clear reminder we should not look away and continue to wash our hands of any attempt to improve things in Afghanistan. There are no easy answers, but turning away and doing nothing will only make the situation worse.

Read more:
What can we expect from six more years of Vladimir Putin? An increasingly weak and dysfunctional Russia

Greg Barton receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is engaged in a range of projects funded by the Australian government that aim to understand and counter violent extremism in Australia and in Southeast Asia and Africa.

– ref. Why would Islamic State attack Russia and what does this mean for the terrorism threat globally? – https://theconversation.com/why-would-islamic-state-attack-russia-and-what-does-this-mean-for-the-terrorism-threat-globally-226464

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania

The votes have been cast, but the helter skelter race to form the next Tasmanian government is just beginning.

While the results aren’t likely to be formalised for a couple of weeks, the island state’s voters haven’t given Labor or the Liberals the 18 lower house seats needed to form a majority government. Overall, there has been a significant swing against the Liberal government, with the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) likely to be the main beneficiaries.

The Liberals are likely to secure the most seats in the next Tasmanian parliament. Premier Jeremy Rockliff declared it “the fourth consecutive win” for the Liberal party.

However, it remains to be seen whether they can secure the support of the three or four crossbenchers they will need to form government. What is clear is that negotiations to form the next Tasmanian government will take days, or even weeks.

Read more:
Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority

What do the numbers show so far?

The next parliament looks like it will have 14 Liberals, ten from Labor, four Greens, two from the JLN, and two independents – with the remaining three seats too close to call. The final numbers will be confirmed once preferences have been distributed.

As expected, many Tasmanians turned away from the two major parties. The primary vote swing against the Liberal government looks to be around 12%, but Labor appears to have gained less than 1% statewide. Almost 34% of voters opted for minor parties and independents. It was a particularly strong result for the Greens, who are in with a chance of picking up the final undecided seats in at least three electorates.

The JLN did not perhaps do as well as expected. Their lack of a “lead” candidate in each seat meant their candidates pulled votes away from each other.

Both of the MPs that defected from the Liberal Party last year – leading Rockliff to call the election – failed to win back their seats as independents.

All this means that the process of forming the next Tasmanian government is likely to be full of twists, turns and controversy.

Read more:
The Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of ‘cybersquatting’. It’s the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online

What now?

During the campaign, Labor and the Liberals both ruled out offering ministries or policy concessions to independents, the JLN or the Greens in exchange for their support. Now, they may find themselves backtracking on this and coming to the negotiating table instead.

The two leaders struck markedly different tones in their speeches late on Saturday night.

Rockliff claimed victory, stating bullishly that “Tasmanians have not voted for a change of government” and that he will seek to lead a Liberal minority government. This would represent the continuation of unstable situation he called the election to escape, depending on how the crossbench views his assumption of the Liberals’ right to continued rule. Some of the Liberal party’s tactics during the campaign will not have endeared them to crossbenchers – particularly those from the JLN.

Rebecca White did not concede defeat, but was more conciliatory. She acknowledged that minority government is likely to be the norm in Tasmania, and said that “Labor will be ready to work with the parliament to implement our agenda […] if that is the will of the people”.

All this is a bit ambiguous – will she go to the crossbench and attempt to cobble together a coalition? There were rumours throughout the night from journalists’ sources that this was a possibility, but nothing has been confirmed yet. Given Labor may only end up with ten seats, they’d need the support of eight crossbenchers, which would be no mean feat.

Read more:
From power prices to chocolate fountains, the Tasmanian election campaign has been a promise avalanche

Adding a bit of spice to the mix is the potential for both leaders to face challenges from within their own ranks.

Labor’s very small improvement on its disappointing 2021 result will be a concern for party strategists, although there is no obvious successor to White. Rockliff claimed to be “just getting started”, but may well be privately concerned about former federal senator Eric Abetz’s barnstorming entry into Tasmanian parliament.

On the ABC’s coverage, Abetz was quick to point out the swing against the Liberals, and highlight the need for the party to review some of its policies and decision making.

And for the nation?

The 2024 Tasmanian election leaves us with a couple of things to think about ahead of the next federal election.

Tasmania’s new parliament is just the latest piece of evidence that two-party dominance is waning across Australia.

It’s true that Tasmania’s Hare-Clark voting system makes it easier for independents and minor party candidates to get elected. However, the poor Liberal and Labor primary votes will worry federal party strategists who hoped that the 2022 Teal-bath was a one off.

Certainly Bridget Archer and Andrew Wilkie will take comfort from the result where authentic, independent-minded candidates did well. It’s also clear that federal Labor have a lot of work to do in regional Tasmania if they are to retain Lyons and win back Braddon.

State election results haven’t always been the best predictor of federal election outcomes. However, that doesn’t mean that national party strategists will ignore what has happened in each of Tasmania’s five seats.

Another simmering issue is fixed parliamentary terms. Independents and minor parties often argue that “snap” elections disadvantage them, because they lack the ongoing resources and campaign apparatus’ of the major parties. Rockliff’s early election call caused grumbling to this effect from independents and minor parties in Tasmania, who felt cheated out of time to prepare.

All other states and territories have fixed term parliaments. If the fallout from the Tasmanian election sparks further debate on this topic, it might reignite the issue at the federal level.

But for now, let’s hope that the major parties can swallow their pride, accept that they didn’t convince Tasmanians of the need for majority government and negotiate an agreement with the crossbench. Doing so would show respect for the democratic will of the Tasmanian people and demonstrate willingness to put aside the politics and get on with addressing the state’s many challenges.

Richard Eccleston is an appointed a member of two public advisory boards providing advice to the Tasmanian government.

Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Tasmanians have voted in a hung parliament, but neither major party is backing down from taking the reins – https://theconversation.com/tasmanians-have-voted-in-a-hung-parliament-but-neither-major-party-is-backing-down-from-taking-the-reins-225776

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Tasmania has five electorates that each return seven members using the proportional Hare-Clark system, for a total of 35 seats. A quota is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%. In previous elections, the quota was 16.7%, with five members per electorate.

With over 60% of enrolled voters counted in all seats, the Poll Bludger’s current projections are that the Liberals will win 3.1 quotas in Bass, 3.7 in Braddon, 2.2 in Clark, 2.7 in Franklin and 3.0 in Lyons. Adding the likely wins in Braddon and Franklin gives them 15 of the 35 seats, three short of the 18 needed for a majority.

Labor is projected to win 2.3 quotas in Bass, 2.0 in Braddon, 2.4 in Clark, 2.2 in Franklin and 2.6 in Lyons, for a total of ten with a possible eleventh in Lyons.

The Greens are projected to win 1.0 quotas in Bass, 0.6 in Braddon, 1.6 in Clark, 1.6 in Franklin and 0.8 in Lyons, and would probably achieve a total of five with two more possible.

The Jacqui Lambie Network appears to have a strong chance to win the final seats in Bass and Braddon, and independent Kristie Johnston is likely to win the final seat in Clark. Former Labor MP David O’Byrne, running as an independent in Franklin, is in a contest with the Greens.

Overall vote share projections are currently 36.9% Liberals (down 11.8% since the 2021 election), 28.7% Labor (up 0.5%), 13.8% Greens (up 1.4%), 6.7% JLN (new) and 9.5% for independents.

Labor and the Greens appear to have performed a bit better than expected from pre-election polls and independents worse. This is likely to make it harder for the Liberals to form a government.

How does Hare-Clark work?

Tasmania uses Robson rotation, where candidate names within a group are randomised for each ballot paper, to prevent one candidate from benefiting from being the top candidate from their group. This means parties can’t order their candidates.

For a formal vote, electors need to number at least seven preferences, but can keep numbering beyond seven if they wish. The process of formally electing candidates won’t start until all votes have been counted.

This is likely to occur on April 2, the deadline for receipt of postal votes.

Any candidate with more votes than the quota is declared elected, and their surplus votes will be passed on to remaining candidates at a fractional value.

After surpluses are distributed, remaining candidates will be excluded starting with the one with the lowest vote, and their votes transferred as preferences to remaining candidates.

This process continues until all seven vacancies in each electorate are filled. Owing to “exhausted” votes that have no preference between the final candidates, it is common for the last winners to have less than a quota.

Labor gains Dunstan in SA state byelection

With 48% of enrolled voters counted in the Liberal-held South Australian Dunstan state byelection, Labor has defeated the Liberals by a 52.9–47.1 margin, a 3.4% swing to Labor since the March 2022 state election. This seat was previously held by former Liberal premier Steven Marshall. This is a government gain from an opposition at a byelection.

Primary votes were 40.0% Liberals (down 6.7%), 32.3% Labor (down 2.9%), 22.4% Greens (up 8.8%) and 3.3% Animal Justice (new).

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority – https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justine Bell-James, Associate Professor, TC Beirne School of Law, The University of Queensland

Australia has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to halt and reverse biodiversity loss through ambitious law and policy reform.

The federal government is currently rewriting our national environmental laws and updating the overarching Strategy for Nature. The updated strategy will include, among other things, goals for the restoration of degraded areas.

Part of the impetus for this reform is the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. This 2022 United Nations treaty was signed by almost 200 countries committing to address the biodiversity crisis. It includes a pledge to achieve 30% of degraded land, water, coastal and marine ecosystems “under effective restoration” by 2030.

But as we argue in our new correspondence in Nature Ecology and Evolution, this restoration target is wide open to interpretation at the domestic level. Some responses could be very ambitious, while others would barely shift us from the status quo. Australia has an opportunity to lead here. We can show the world how to restore land and water for the benefit of all.

Read more:
5 things we need to see in Australia’s new nature laws

Interpreting the 30% restoration target

The global framework contains 23 targets, to be “initiated immediately and completed by 2030”.

The restoration target obliges countries to:

Ensure that by 2030 at least 30% of areas of degraded terrestrial, inland water, and marine and coastal ecosystems are under effective restoration, in order to enhance biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, ecological integrity and connectivity.

At first glance, this 30% restoration target sounds like a huge and important step towards reversing biodiversity loss. But the devil is in the detail, and almost every word of this target is open to interpretation.

For example, the term “degraded” can be interpreted in various ways. A country may interpret it to include only areas that have seen a drastic decline in biodiversity, such as those that have been totally cleared.

But if a country interprets it more broadly as areas that have experienced any decline in biodiversity, this translates to a much larger area for restoration.

The wording also refers to 30% of areas of “degraded terrestrial, inland water, and marine and coastal ecosystems”. Crucially, it does not say effort must be spread evenly across these different ecosystems. This may lead countries to focus on areas where restoration is easier or cheaper. Given the complexities involved in marine and coastal restoration, there is a risk countries may focus their efforts on land while continuing to neglect freshwater, marine or coastal ecosystems.

The phrase “under effective restoration” also has a range of possible meanings. Does “effective” simply mean in a better state than it was before restoration began? Or does it mean bringing the ecosystem back to an approximation of its natural state – prior to interference from development or other harm?

How the term “effective” restoration is defined at a national scale will drastically influence reports of “success” and make it difficult to compare results between countries.

Scaling up

Australia has signed the framework and is currently considering how to implement it domestically. If Australia does decide to interpret the restoration target broadly and commit to restoring larger areas of land and water through more ambitious standards, there will be other issues to contend with.

For example, one study identified a lack of funding and complex legal requirements as barriers to upscaling restoration in marine and coastal areas. In particular, having to apply for numerous government permits for restoration can slow progress and lead people to scale back their plans.

To meet the 30% target, the government will need to reconsider how to fund restoration and streamline legal processes. Remember, much of the heavy lifting is currently done by non-government organisations such as The Nature Conservancy, Australian Wildlife Conservancy, Bush Heritage Australia and Trust for Nature.

Read more:
The new major players in conservation? NGOs thrive while national parks struggle

Leading by example

Ultimately, we argue countries should have discretion over how and where to implement restoration based on their individual circumstances. But we also think the global framework could be supplemented by standardised terminology and metrics to allow genuine comparison of countries’ progress towards the global targets.

Closer to home, our analysis has some important lessons for Australia as the federal government contemplates the fate of our national environmental laws and biodiversity strategy. Australia’s most recent State of the Environment Report painted a bleak picture of biodiversity decline, highlighting an urgent need to upscale restoration of our land and water.

Australia has an opportunity to take a leading role in this area and reverse our legacy of biodiversity loss. Interpreting the 30% restoration target broadly and ambitiously would set us on a path towards achieving meaningful outcomes for biodiversity and make Australia a world leader in restoration.

Read more:
We’ve committed to protect 30% of Australia’s land by 2030. Here’s how we could actually do it

Justine Bell-James receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. She is a Director of the National Environmental Law Association.

– ref. Australia must lead the world on nature restoration through ambitious interpretation of international law – https://theconversation.com/australia-must-lead-the-world-on-nature-restoration-through-ambitious-interpretation-of-international-law-225903

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan van den Hoek, Senior Lecturer, Clinical Exercise Physiology, University of the Sunshine Coast

Various forms of motorsport are passionately followed around the world, and the pinnacle of the sport is Formula 1 – a fast-paced battle between drivers and teams with some of the most finely engineered vehicles in the world.

Despite the impressive speeds and engineering of their machines, race car drivers have sometimes battled the stereotype that they are not truly elite athletes. However, the recent advent of television series such as Drive to Survive has given the public an insight into the demands of driving in Formula 1.

Read more:
How a Netflix show has become a key driver behind F1’s rising popularity

Formula 1 drivers: elite athletes?

Drivers use split-second judgements to perform precision steering while travelling at speeds of up to 300 kilometres per hour. All the while, drivers need to concentrate on the track, their opponents, and feedback provided through their radio or steering wheel.

As the vehicles have developed over time, so too have the drivers. Nowadays, drivers are considered athletes who must undergo immense preparation and training to ensure their physical and mental abilities can manage the ever-increasing limits of their machines and environmental demands.

What forces are Formula 1 drivers exposed to?

During a typical race, Formula 1 drivers are subjected to a barrage of physical and psychological demands that test their strength, endurance and mental fortitude at high speeds.

Not only is a driver required to have sufficient strength to perform, they must also stabilise themselves to withstand gravitational forces (G-force) in multiple different directions.

During cornering and braking, drivers experience forces upwards of 5Gs. In addition, each application of a brake pedal requires between 600–700 newtons of force which, during a 90-minute race, would equate to a total load of 57,940kg (based on the 14 turns and 58 laps of Melbourne’s Albert Park track).

However, when things go wrong, the forces experienced by drivers are even more extreme. In a crash, drivers can experience deceleration forces of up to 100G]

As you can imagine, such forces place incredible strain on a driver’s head and neck.

The forces experienced by Formula 1 drivers are like those of military pilots. Unsurprisingly, this can result in neck and back pain or a loss of peripheral vision (often called grey-out) when forces are endured for an extended period.

Fortunately, F1 drivers aren’t typically subject to extended G-force loading. Rather, they are challenged repeatedly through acceleration, deceleration and cornering.

To combat the effects of these forces, drivers train their trunk and neck strength against high loads to be able to counteract the forces pulling their head and neck around their cockpit. Drivers also train their aerobic capacity to assist with handling these demands, resulting in high heart rates and physiological stress.

Trying to beat the heat

Beyond the incredible forces experienced by driver-athletes, cabin temperatures can exceed 50°C, and extensive heat generated from the vehicle (through the close proximity of the transmission and engine to the driver) via convective heat transfer can result in more than 3% bodyweight loss during a race.

Drivers therefore need to stay hydrated to maintain their health, safety and performance. This process is made harder by the mandated safety equipment – under the Federation Internationale de l’Automobile guidelines, drivers must wear fire-retardant boots, under- and over-garments, balaclavas, gloves and helmets that limit their capacity to cool down via evaporation and convection.

Every kilogram counts

In preparation for these ever-increasing demands, F1 drivers maintain very low body-fat percentages (around 8%) compared with IndyCar drivers (around 17%) and maintain greater levels of fitness than their counterparts from IndyCar and NASCAR, allowing them to meet the design demands of the vehicle.

Similarly, F1 drivers are typically stronger and more powerful than their counterparts from other racing series.

Because of the demands of the F1 racing calendar, drivers need to get the most bang for their buck through efficient training methods that improve strength, power and fitness.

Nutritionally, they should consume a balanced diet that maintains weight and optimal body composition so they don’t become too heavy or large for their limited cockpit space.

Read more:
Women in Formula One: how the sport is trying to redress its longstanding lack of support for female drivers and staff

What else do drivers do to prepare?

Of course, racing at speeds of more than 300km per hour with millimetres between rivals requires more than strength, fitness and fearlessness. There is substantial skill required to control a machine that is being pushed to its limits.

Beyond their athleticism, F1 drivers develop skills from a very young age and typically progress from go-karting through to the elite level.

So, it’s not just about a fast car and being fit and strong enough to control it – if you want to make it as an elite driver in the top tier, years of practice and devotion to the art of driving are required too.

Paul Haines has previously worked for Toro Rosso F1 Team, and am now currently consulting with various V8 Supercars Teams & Drivers.

Dan van den Hoek and Justin Holland do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What happens to F1 drivers’ bodies, and what sort of training do they do? – https://theconversation.com/what-happens-to-f1-drivers-bodies-and-what-sort-of-training-do-they-do-226331

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eric Vanderduys, Research Projects Officer, CSIRO

Flying foxes, or fruit bats, are familiar to many Australians. So it may come as a surprise to learn two of the four mainland species, both grey-headed and spectacled flying foxes, are threatened with extinction.

But our decade-long survey of one of these species – the grey-headed flying fox – brings some encouraging news. Our data show the population has been relatively stable since 2012, when surveys first began under the National Flying-fox Monitoring Program.

Incredibly, the species emerged from the Black Summer of 2019–20 relatively unscathed. Flying foxes also suffer in heatwaves and many die, but overall numbers have remained stable.

While this study is good news for the species, we must not become complacent. Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense as the climate changes. Only further monitoring can determine its effects.

Read more:
Flying foxes pollinate forests and spread seeds. Here’s how we can make peace with our noisy neighbours

Hanging out with flying foxes

The grey-headed flying fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) is common in most cities and towns across south-eastern Australia. More recently, colonies have become established in South Australia.

The species can be found anywhere from Maryborough, on Queensland’s Fraser Coast, to Adelaide, with some outlying populations as far north as Ingham in north Queensland. There’s also a breakaway group in Port Augusta, 300km north of Adelaide.

The “vulnerable” listing means the species is at risk of extinction. But it’s not as dire as if it were “endangered”.

The original vulnerable assessment, endorsed in 2001, was based on a population decline of about 30% over ten years and the potential for ongoing land clearing in the grey-headed flying fox’s core range.

But this is the flying fox you’re most likely to see and hear in south-east Australia, from Sydney to Adelaide.

During the day, flying foxes like to hang out together. They rest and socialise in large roosts, sometimes numbering more than 100,000 animals.

As the sun sets, they take to the sky, departing in large streams to forage during the night in the surrounding landscape. They can travel long distances to find food, sometimes venturing more than 40km from home, and flying more than 300km in a single night.

Their food of choice is nectar from a wide variety of eucalypt, bloodwood and melaleuca species. In return, they play an important pollination role, as if they were nocturnal bees with a one-metre wingspan.

They also feed extensively on native figs. In urban areas, they feast on the nectar and fruit of introduced species found in gardens and street trees.

Individuals regularly change roosts. They move throughout the species’ range, following food resources.

That means the number of bats in roosts is constantly changing, depending on the availability of the surrounding resources, which makes accurate counting particularly challenging.

Monitoring a threatened species

Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, co-ordinated the National Flying-fox Monitoring Program in partnership with federal and state environmental agencies from 2012 to 2022.

The intention was to monitor the populations of the two nationally listed flying fox species on the mainland. It was specifically designed to understand their population trends. Here we focus on the grey-headed flying foxes.

The program involved quarterly visits by federal, state and local government staff and volunteers to as many flying fox roosts as possible. Over the entire program almost 12,000 counts were conducted at 912 potential roosts. Grey-headed flying foxes were found at 469 of those roosts.

This program would not have been possible without hundreds of hours of work around the clock by staff and volunteers, often in challenging conditions. Their work highlights the importance of long-term monitoring programs.

From 2012 to 2022 we counted an average of 580,000 grey-headed flying foxes in each survey. But total numbers ranged between 330,000 and 990,000, with strong seasonal variation. This variation relates to their reproductive cycle and the availability of food within their range.

Flying foxes pup late in the year. When those pups become independent, they can be counted. This results in a sudden increase in the numbers, typically around February. So while our data show peaks and troughs throughout each year, overall the population remained stable.

We developed a model to allow for this seasonality and examine overall population trends. The model strongly suggests the population hovered around 600,000 adults for the ten years of the survey. We found a 70% chance of a slightly increasing population, versus a 30% chance the population has declined slightly.

The population appeared to be stable despite exceptional events such as the 2019–20 megafires and severe heatwaves known to have killed thousands of flying foxes.

The flying foxes seem resilient to these threats for two main reasons.

First, they are nomadic and well adapted to travelling long distances. This allows them to evade threats such as fires and droughts.

Second, grey-headed flying-foxes are likely to benefit from a “human-modified landscape”. In other words, they may well be urban “winners”, as the urban areas we’ve created provide diverse foraging opportunities.

Grey-headed flying foxes continually occupied all major cities within their range throughout our monitoring program.

These urban environments offer a smorgasbord of flowering and fruiting species, especially palms and figs. Many of these species are exotics, with flowering and fruiting patterns that flying foxes can readily exploit.

We found continuous occupation of individual roosts was unusual. The few that were continuously occupied were all in urban areas, supporting the view that urban areas are increasingly important for this species.

Good news, but we need to be cautious

After ten years of monitoring we can safely say the grey-headed flying fox is doing ok, for the time being.

But threats to its survival remain. Climate change is expected to cause more heatwaves, bushfires and droughts within their range. This could turn their fate around.

It’s also worth noting that while our monitoring continued for two years after the 2019–20 bushfires, the longer-term impacts are still unknown.

Given this uncertainty, continuing monitoring using similar methods and incorporating updated technology would increase certainty about the population trajectory. Unfortunately, monitoring has paused since 2022, pending further funding discussions.

Read more:
To stop new viruses jumping across to humans, we must protect and restore bat habitat. Here’s why

Eric Vanderduys works for CSIRO. He receives funding from a range of federal and state government agencies.

Adam McKeown receives funding from a variety of federal and state government agencies.

Chris R. Pavey works for CSIRO. He receives funding from a variety of federal and state government agencies.

John Martin works for Ecosure ecological consultancy. He receives funding from a variety of federal and state government agencies.

Peter Caley works for the CSIRO. He receives funding from a range of federal and state government agencies.

– ref. Grey-headed flying-fox population is stable – 10 years of monitoring reveals this threatened species is doing well – https://theconversation.com/grey-headed-flying-fox-population-is-stable-10-years-of-monitoring-reveals-this-threatened-species-is-doing-well-226319

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Laurenceson, Director and Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI), University of Technology Sydney

There is a prominent view in Australia that bilateral relations with China remain inherently “fragile”.

Canberra and Beijing might have started talking to each other again after Labor returned to power in May 2022. But some deep-seated differences remain, such as around the role the United States should play in the emerging regional order.

And at any moment these differences might see the Albanese government put in Beijing’s doghouse, just as the Morrison government was in 2020.

After the visit to Australia this week by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, however, we can be a little more confident the current positive trajectory in Australia-China relations has some resilience.

Wang’s main purpose for making the trip was to join Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong for the reinstated annual Australia-China Foreign and Strategic Dialogue, a regular, high-level meeting that was put on pause during the lowest point of China-Australia relations.

Following his meeting with Wong, Wang also had a roundtable discussion with a group of Australian business leaders, academics and think tank experts, hosted by the Australia-China Business Council. I was a part of this session.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Wang talked up China’s domestic and international achievements during this session, such as the fact that China’s economy consistently contributes to one-third of global economic growth.

He also defended Beijing’s positions on a range of issues, such as the introduction of a controversial national security law this week in Hong Kong. And there was more than one critical reference to the United States.

But when Wang explained how Beijing hoped to manage ties with Canberra moving forward – and what China wanted to get out of the relationship with Australia more broadly – it was striking that in both tone and substance his remarks were almost identical to those of Wong.

Wang’s tone was not exuberant. But it was unmistakably positive and assiduously forward-looking. The assertive, “wolf warrior”-style diplomacy that characterised China’s foreign policy in recent years was nowhere to be seen. And the “14 grievances” the Chinese embassy issued in 2020 to express the country’s frustrations with Australia remained in the drawer.

And like his Australian counterpart, Wang hoped that Beijing and Canberra would maintain “mature, stable and productive” relations. His aim was for the “diverse engagement” between the two countries to continue and the “untapped potential” of the relationship to be realised.

After all, Wang said, Australia and China had “more common interests than differences”. On the latter, the task was not to pretend they didn’t exist, but rather to “manage and rise above” them.

This sounded an awful lot like Wong’s exhortation in a press conference following her meeting with Wang that Australia and China need to “manage their differences wisely”.

Wang even managed a note of humour, joking to business leaders in the room that despite Australia running a massive bilateral trade surplus with China (more than $A100 billion in 2023), Beijing did not consider this a problem. He quipped he did not intend launching any “301 investigations” against Australia, name-checking the tactics that Washington has deployed to reduce its trade deficit with China.

Read more:
Don’t be fooled by Biden and Xi talks − China and the US are enduring rivals rather than engaged partners

Avoiding diplomatic pitfalls

Given Beijing’s previous behaviour toward Canberra, such as using trade restrictions to disrupt A$20 billion worth of Australian exports in 2020, Wang’s rhetoric this week could arouse some scepticism.

But recent events suggest more is at play – and the relationship is actually on firmer ground than might be expected.

Last November, a Chinese warship directed a powerful, hull-mounted sonar at an Australian naval vessel in the East China Sea, causing minor injuries to divers who had been removing fishing nets entangled in the ship’s propellers.

Neither side shied away from making clear their positions on the incident – and these were at odds.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the Chinese actions as “dangerous, unsafe and unprofessional”.

China’s Ministry of National Defence, meanwhile, said Australia ought to “respect the facts” and “stop making reckless and irresponsible accusations”.

Despite this strong language, however, neither side prolonged or escalated the impact of the incident.

The same dynamic was apparent when Beijing announced last month that an Australian citizen, Yang Hengjun, had received a suspended death sentence in China for “espionage”.

Wong described the verdict as “appalling”. Albanese said his government had conveyed to Beijing “our dismay, our despair, our frustration, but to put it really simply, our outrage at this verdict”. She continued to advocate loudly on Yang’s behalf to Wang this week, as well.

Beijing took a very different position, saying the Chinese court respected Yang’s procedural rights.

But when asked whether Australia might take more extreme steps in response to the verdict, such as recall Australia’s ambassador to Beijing or rescind an invitation for a high-ranking Chinese official to visit, Wong quickly hosed down such suggestions. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is still expected to visit Australia this year, reciprocating Albanese’s trip to China last November.

And at the same time, Trade Minister Don Farrell continued to talk up areas of mutual benefit between the countries. He said just days after the verdict that while Australia already has a roaring A$300 billion trade relationship with China, this “doesn’t mean that figure can’t be A$400 billion”.

Evidently, neither side wishes to return to the dysfunction of 2020–21, when the response to political differences was megaphone diplomacy, cutting off dialogue and crimping areas of mutually beneficial cooperation.

None of the episodes of the last few months are proof positive that Australia-China relations could not be thrown off course again by a more extreme development. If Canberra walked away from adhering to the “One-China Policy”, for instance, or if Beijing ramped up its aggression towards Australian naval vessels in international waters, the future of the bilateral relationship would quickly darken.

But for the time being, the outlook is more stable and optimistic than it has been for a good while.

Read more:
Does Yang Hengjun have any legal hopes left after receiving a suspended death sentence in China?

James Laurenceson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Positive outlook, with a dash of humour: Wang Yi’s visit sets the tone for a real diplomatic reboot – https://theconversation.com/positive-outlook-with-a-dash-of-humour-wang-yis-visit-sets-the-tone-for-a-real-diplomatic-reboot-226232

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amelia Johns, Associate Professor, Digital and Social Media, School of Communication, University of Technology Sydney

During the COVID pandemic, social media platforms were swarmed by far-right and anti-vaccination communities that spread dangerous conspiracy theories.

These included the false claims that vaccines are a form of population control, and that the virus was a “deep state” plot. Governments and the World Health Organization redirected precious resources from vaccination campaigns to debunk these falsehoods.

As the tide of misinformation grew, platforms were accused of not doing enough to stop the spread. To address these concerns, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, made several policy announcements in 2020–21. However, it hesitated to remove “borderline” content, or content that didn’t cause direct physical harm, save for one policy change in February 2021 that expanded the content removal lists.

To stem the tide, Meta continued to rely more heavily on algorithmic moderation techniques to reduce the visibility of misinformation in users’ feeds, search and recommendations – known as shadowbanning. They also used fact-checkers to label misinformation.

While shadowbanning is widely seen as a concerningly opaque technique, our new research, published in the journal Media International Australia, instead asks: was it effective?

What did we investigate?

We used two measures to answer this question. First, after identifying 18 Australian far-right and anti-vaccination accounts that consistently shared misinformation between January 2019 and July 2021, we analysed the performance of these accounts using key metrics.

Second, we mapped this performance against five content moderation policy announcements for Meta’s flagship platform, Facebook.

The findings revealed two divergent trends. After March 2020 the overall performance of the accounts – that is, their median performance – suffered a decline. And yet their mean performance shows increasing levels after October 2020.

This is because, while the majority of the monitored accounts underperformed, a few accounts overperformed instead, and strongly so. In fact, they continued to overperform and attract new followers even after the alleged policy change in February 2021.

Shadowbanning as a badge of pride

To examine why, we scraped and thematically analysed comments and user reactions from posts on these accounts. We found users had a high motivation to stay engaged with problematic content. Labelling and shadowbanning were viewed as motivating challenges.

Specifically, users frequently used “social steganography” – using deliberate typos or code words for key terms – to evade algorithmic detection. We also saw conspiracy “seeding” where users add links to archiving sites or less moderated sites in comments to re-distribute content Facebook labelled as misinformation, and to avoid detection.

In one example, a user added a link to a BitChute video with keywords that dog-whistled support for QAnon style conspiracies. As terms such as “vaccine” were believed to trigger algorithmic detection, emoji or other code names were used in their place:

A friend sent me this link, it’s [sic.] refers to over 4000 deaths of individuals after getting 💉 The true number will not come out, it’s not in the public’s interest to disclose the amount of people that have died within day’s [sic.] of jab.

While many conspiracy theories were targeted at government and public health authorities, platform suppression of content fuelled further conspiracies regarding big tech and their complicity with “Big Pharma” and governments.

This was evident in the use of keywords such as MSM (“mainstream media”) to reference QAnon style agendas:

MSM are in on this whole thing, only report on what the elites tell them to. Clearly you are not doing any research but listening to msm […] This is a completely experimental ‘vaccine’.

Another comment thread showed reactions to Meta’s dangerous organisations policy update, where accounts that regularly shared QAnon-content were labelled “extremist”. In the reactions, MSM and “the agenda” appeared frequently.

Read more:
QAnon is spreading outside the US – a conspiracy theory expert explains what that could mean

Some users recommended that sensitive content be moved to alternative platforms. We observed one anti-vaccination influencer complain that their page was being shadowbanned by Facebook, and calling on their followers to recommend a “good, censorship free, livestreaming platform”.

The replies suggested moderation-lite sites such as Rumble. Similar recommendations were made for Twitch, a livestreaming site popular with gamers which has since attracted far-right political influencers.

As one user said:

I know so many people who get censored on so many apps especially Facebook and Twitch seems to work for them.

How can content moderation fix the problem?

These tactics of coordination to detect shadowbans, resist labelling and fight the algorithm provide some insight into why engagement didn’t dim on some of these “overperforming” accounts despite all the policies Meta put in place.

This shows that Meta’s suppression techniques, while partially effective in containing the spread, do nothing to prevent those invested in sharing (and finding) misinformation from doing so.

Firmer policies on content removal and user banning would help address the problem. However, Meta’s announcement last year suggests the company has little appetite for this. Any loosening of policy changes will all but ensure this misinformation playground will continue to thrive.

Read more:
A researcher asked COVID anti-vaxxers how they avoid Facebook moderation. Here’s what they found

Amelia Johns has received funding from Meta content policy award for some of the research presented in this article. She has also received funding from the Australian Research Council.

Emily Booth is supported by funding from the Australian Department of Home Affairs and the Defence Innovation Network.

Francesco Bailo has received funding from Meta content policy award for some of the research presented in this article. He receives funding from the Defence Innovation Network.

Marian-Andrei Rizoiu receives funding from the Australian Department of Home Affairs, the Defence Science and Technology Group, the Defence Innovation Network and the Australian Academy of Science.

– ref. Conspiracy theorist tactics show it’s too easy to get around Facebook’s content policies – https://theconversation.com/conspiracy-theorist-tactics-show-its-too-easy-to-get-around-facebooks-content-policies-226118

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Tasmanian state election is this Saturday. The 35 total lower house seats will be elected in five seven-member electorates using the proportional Hare Clark system, up from 25 total seats at previous elections. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%, down from 16.7% at previous elections.

The Poll Bludger on Friday reported The Mercury had a Freshwater poll taken a “fortnight ago” for an undisclosed client. This poll had samples of 800 in each of the five electorates. It suggested the Liberals would win 15 of the 35 seats, Labor nine, the Greens four, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and independents four.

In Braddon, this poll gave the Liberals 49%, Labor just 15%, JLN 13% and independents 10%, suggesting Labor would win just one of Braddon’s seven seats, with the Liberals taking four, JLN one and an independent one. Labor would win two seats in each of the other four electorates, with the Greens and independents strong in Clark.

While the Liberals would be short of the 18 seats needed for a majority, the 15 seats they would win if this poll is accurate would give them a far better chance to form government than Labor. Freshwater’s federal polls have usually been better for the Coalition than other polls.

I covered a Tasmanian uComms poll on March 15 that gave Labor just 23% of the vote. Both the uComms poll and Freshwater poll were taken about a fortnight ago, and there haven’t been recent polls conducted.

Labor is struggling in the polls in both Tasmania and Queensland, though from different positions. In Tasmania, the Liberals have held government since the 2014 election, while in Queensland, Labor has held power since the 2015 election.

The federal Labor government is likely now a drag for state Labor parties. Another factor is that Tasmania and Queensland are the most regional-dominated Australian states. At the 2022 federal election, Queensland was easily the best state for the Coalition, while Tasmania was the only state or territory that recorded a swing to the Coalition from the 2019 election.

I covered the urban shift to the left in an April 2022 article that suggested federal Labor could do well due to Australia’s big cities.

Read more:
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Queensland Labor likely doomed after huge byelection swings

Queensland state byelections were held on March 16 in the Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West. The ABC’s projections are for the Liberal National Party to gain Ipswich West by a 53.5–46.5 margin, a 17.9% swing to the LNP since the October 2020 state election.

Primary votes were 39.6% LNP (up 18.5%), 35.0% Labor (down 15.1%), 14.5% Legalise Cannabis (up 10.0%) and 10.9% One Nation (down 3.9%). The Greens, who had 6.5% in 2020, did not contest.

Labor held Inala by a 56.8–43.2 margin, but this was a 21.3% swing to the LNP. Primary votes were 37.3% Labor (down 30.1%), 29.3% LNP (up 12.8%), 10.1% Greens (up 2.3%) and a combined 19.5% for four independents. Inala was held by former premier Annastacia Palasczuk, and was one of only seven Labor-held seats after the 2012 election wipeout.

The Queensland state election will be held in October. On March 15 I covered a Queensland Newspoll that gave the LNP a 54–46 lead, representing a seven-point swing to the LNP since the 2020 election.

Read more:
Dire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming

Byelection swings in government-held seats are usually worse for governments than the swings at general elections. But the huge swings in Inala and Ipswich West validate Newspoll. Labor has governed in Queensland since early 2015, but faces defeat in October.

Local government elections in Queensland were also held on March 16. In the high-profile Brisbane City Council, incumbent LNP mayor Adrian Schrinner defeated Labor by 56.3–43.7, a 0.1% swing to Labor since the 2020 election.

The LNP also retained its majority on the council, winning 17 of the 26 wards, to five for Labor, two Greens and one independent, with one still undecided. In both the mayoral and council elections, there was a primary vote swing to the Greens but it came at Labor’s expense.

SA state byelection this Saturday

A byelection in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Dunstan will also occur this Saturday after the retirement of former Liberal premier Steven Marshall. At the March 2022 SA election, Marshall defeated Labor in Dunstan by just a 50.5–49.5 margin. There have been no SA state polls since Labor ousted the Liberals at that election.

Federal Morgan poll steady at 51.5–48.5 to Labor

In this week’s national Morgan poll, conducted March 11–17 from a sample of 1,710, Labor led by 51.5–48.5, unchanged since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down one), 31.5% Labor (down 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (up 1.5), 9% independents (steady) and 4.5% others (up 0.5).

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Liberals likely to easily win most seats in Tasmania; huge swings to LNP at Queensland byelections – https://theconversation.com/liberals-likely-to-easily-win-most-seats-in-tasmania-huge-swings-to-lnp-at-queensland-byelections-225987

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Blair, Teaching Fellow in Music, University of Otago

Musician Steve Harley’s death last week came as a shock to me. After four months analysing his music and visual performances for my doctoral thesis on British glam rock, I’d come to feel like I somehow knew him.

The feeling was compounded by the fact Harley had answered some questions for me some years earlier and wished me well in my studies. To me, then, he was a nice, approachable person, generous with his time. He was also a unique and innovative musician, beginning with albums The Human Menagerie (1973) and The Psychomodo (1974), whose influence has extended well beyond the 1970s.

But Harley has received much less scholarly attention than his glam-rock-era peers. David Bowie, in particular, has (rightfully) been the subject of books, symposiums and university courses. And scholars around the world have analysed glam rock itself in its various forms and incarnations.

Harley, however, is notably absent from these discussions. One reason is that glam-rock scholarship is still growing, with much still to do. Another reason may be that Harley is not as easily categorised as other glam-rock musicians.

While many were androgynous, for instance, Harley was relatively understated. Musically, too, Steve Harley & Cockney Rebel broke the rock ‘n’ roll mould, opting for an electric violin instead of electric guitars.

Without the electric guitar, there was room for Harley to perform with a certain theatricality, both vocally and as reflected in the band’s often lush instrumentation. In 1974’s Tumbling Down, Harley laments what’s been done to the blues, accompanied by a full choir, orchestra and sentimental flourishes.

Musical melodrama

While glam-era Bowie was theatrical in a stagey, physical sense – the Ziggy Stardust live concerts being the prime example – Harley’s theatricality was different. He drew from Berlin cabaret, among other such influences, but went beyond that, offering shimmering, shivering musical melodrama that departed from the usual glam-rock formulas.

While glam band The Sweet were campy in a comedic way, Steve Harley’s camp lay in his fin de siècle, dramatic excess. Imagine the orchestral flourish of Bowie’s Life On Mars? (1971), but filtered through a candlelit, absinthe-driven night in Paris.

Read more:
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Even his more upbeat tracks – Sweet Dreams (1974) or Psychomodo (1974), for example – embody a quirky angularity that recalls the visual style of a German Expressionist film.

At the same time, such songs anticipated the vocal styles of later art-rock, punk and new-wave singers. Harley’s sense of camp can also be found in his key influences: Busby Berkeley musicals and Marlene Dietrich.

Filmmaker Todd Haynes insightfully layered Harley’s musical melodrama into the more decadently theatrical moments of his 1998 glam-rock film Velvet Goldmine. Actor Jonathan Rhys Meyers performs Tumbling Down in blue-green body paint and pastel feather boa on an elaborate staircase and, finally, on top of an ornate chandelier.

Make Me Smile

Harley is most remembered, of course, for the 1975 hit Make Me Smile (Come Up And See Me), his most upbeat, conventionally “pop” single. Its welcoming acoustic guitar strum and catchy melody – replete with “ooh la la la la” backing vocals – has been covered more than 100 times, notably as the B-side to Duran Duran’s The Reflex in 1984.

Cheerful, charming and representative of Harley’s poppier sensibilities, Make Me Smile is also an exception. It departs from the often dark elegance of The Human Menagerie or The Psychomodo albums, and from the off-kilter circus-cabaret of his other glam-era pop single Mr. Soft (1974).

Read more:
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Like the other “serious” glam rockers of the era – such as Roxy Music’s Brian Eno – Harley didn’t really think of himself as a glam-rock artist. Nevertheless, he’s considered a key figure in “high glam” – the artier type, embodied by David Bowie and early Roxy Music.

High glam required a sort of intellectualism, and an intellectual distance from the broader glam-rock genre. It was a world away from Slade’s Cum On Feel The Noize or The Sweet’s party-rock stompers. Its cerebral artiness – including its denial of being glam rock at all – was what defined it.

Once and future glam

British glam rock met the end of its cycle in the mid-1970s. Bowie moved on, Eno left Roxy Music, and The Sweet broke up with their songwriters to become the hard-rock band they always wanted to be.

Like Bowie, Harley endured – releasing new music and touring regularly. Glam rock has both morphed and echoed throughout the decades, emerging in new wave, glam metal and Britpop’s more glamorous, Bowie-influenced artists (Suede, Pulp). Most recently, glam has resurfaced in decadent Italian rockers Måneskin.

Until late last year, Harley had planned to tour. He cancelled on receiving a cancer diagnosis, and his death was swift. Along with Bowie, Marc Bolan and most of the original members of The Sweet, Steve Harley has joined that growing pantheon of glam-era musicians who are no longer with us.

With Make Me Smile (Come Up And See Me) now played in his honour, we should also remember him as a key and innovative figure in a pivotal rock era.

Alison Blair does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Theatrical, camp and truly original: glam-rock pioneer Steve Harley’s influence lives on – https://theconversation.com/theatrical-camp-and-truly-original-glam-rock-pioneer-steve-harleys-influence-lives-on-226116

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Cashin, Professor of Nursing, School of Health and Human Sciences, Southern Cross University

Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg describes herself as having Asperger’s while others on the autism spectrum, such as Australian comedian Hannah Gatsby, describe themselves as “autistic”. But what’s the difference?

Today, the previous diagnoses of “Asperger’s disorder” and “autistic disorder” both fall within the diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder, or ASD.

Autism describes a “neurotype” – a person’s thinking and information-processing style. Autism is one of the forms of diversity in human thinking, which comes with strengths and challenges.

When these challenges become overwhelming and impact how a person learns, plays, works or socialises, a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder is made.

Where do the definitions come from?

The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) outlines the criteria clinicians use to diagnose mental illnesses and behavioural disorders.

Between 1994 and 2013, autistic disorder and Asperger’s disorder were the two primary diagnoses related to autism in the fourth edition of the manual, the DSM-4.

In 2013, the DSM-5 collapsed both diagnoses into one autism spectrum disorder.

Read more:
It’s 25 years since we redefined autism – here’s what we’ve learnt

How did we used to think about autism?

The two thinkers behind the DSM-4 diagnostic categories were Baltimore psychiatrist Leo Kanner and Viennese paediatrician Hans Asperger. They described the challenges faced by people who were later diagnosed with autistic disorder and Asperger’s disorder.

Kanner and Asperger observed patterns of behaviour that differed to typical thinkers in the domains of communication, social interaction and flexibility of behaviour and thinking. The variance was associated with challenges in adaptation and distress.

Between the 1940s and 1994, the majority of those diagnosed with autism also had an intellectual disability. Clinicians became focused on the accompanying intellectual disability as a necessary part of autism.

The introduction of Asperger’s disorder shifted this focus and acknowledged the diversity in autism. In the DSM-4 it superficially looked like autistic disorder and Asperger’s disorder were different things, with the Asperger’s criteria stating there could be no intellectual disability or delay in the development of speech.

Today, as a legacy of the recognition of the autism itself, the majority of people diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder – the new term from the DSM-5 – don’t a have an accompanying intellectual disability.

What changed with ‘autism spectrum disorder’?

The move to autism spectrum disorder brought the previously diagnosed autistic disorder and Asperger’s disorder under the one new diagnostic umbrella term.

It made clear that other diagnostic groups – such as intellectual disability – can co-exist with autism, but are separate things.

The other major change was acknowledging communication and social skills are intimately linked and not separable. Rather than separating “impaired communication” and “impaired social skills”, the diagnostic criteria changed to “impaired social communication”.

The introduction of the spectrum in the diagnostic term further clarified that people have varied capabilities in the flexibility of their thinking, behaviour and social communication – and this can change in response to the context the person is in.

Read more:
TikTok is teaching the world about autism – but is it empowering autistic people or pigeonholing them?

Why do some people prefer the old terminology?

Some people feel the clinical label of Asperger’s allowed a much more refined understanding of autism. This included recognising the achievements and great societal contributions of people with known or presumed autism.

The contraction “Aspie” played an enormous part in the shift to positive identity formation. In the time up to the release of the DSM-5, Tony Attwood and Carol Gray, two well known thinkers in the area of autism, highlighted the strengths associated with “being Aspie” as something to be proud of. But they also raised awareness of the challenges.

What about identity-based language?

A more recent shift in language has been the reclamation of what was once viewed as a slur – “autistic”. This was a shift from person-first language to identity-based language, from “person with autism spectrum disorder” to “autistic”.

The neurodiversity rights movement describes its aim to push back against a breach of human rights resulting from the wish to cure, or fundamentally change, people with autism.

The movement uses a “social model of disability”. This views disability as arising from societies’ response to individuals and the failure to adjust to enable full participation. The inherent challenges in autism are seen as only a problem if not accommodated through reasonable adjustments.

However the social model contrasts itself against a very outdated medical or clinical model.

Current clinical thinking and practice focuses on targeted supports to reduce distress, promote thriving and enable optimum individual participation in school, work, community and social activities. It doesn’t aim to cure or fundamentally change people with autism.

A diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder signals there are challenges beyond what will be solved by adjustments alone; individual supports are also needed. So it’s important to combine the best of the social model and contemporary clinical model.

Read more:
From deficits to a spectrum, thinking around autism has changed. Now there are calls for a ‘profound autism’ diagnosis

Andrew Cashin receives funding from the Australian Government National Disability Insurance Agency Information Linkages and Capacity Building Grant Scheme Grant number 4-DW65XKD. This is a mainstream capacity building grant to build the capacity to care for people with ASD and/or intellectual disability in mainstream healthcare.

– ref. What’s the difference between autism and Asperger’s disorder? – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-difference-between-autism-and-aspergers-disorder-223643

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julian Schrader, Lecturer in Plant Ecology, Macquarie University

For ecologists, one of the most pressing questions is to understand how ecosystems will change or adapt as the climate changes rapidly. We are already seeing many species of plant and animal moving uphill and towards the poles in response to higher temperatures. It’s very likely most species will move to track their preferred temperature niche.

But what’s strange is that many species can survive in much broader temperature ranges than their current distribution suggests. We don’t yet fully understand why temperature affects ecosystems so strongly.

To shed light on this puzzle, our new research used the current range of Australian plants and calculated each species’ minimum and maximum temperature preferences. These data told us how many and what percentage of species are lost or gained when transitioning from, say, a 15°C to a 16°C average annual temperature.

The results were astonishing. In Australia’s wetter east coast, you gain on average 19% more species and lose 14% of species when moving up the temperature gradient by 1°C. In the dry centre, you gain 18% of species and lose 21% of species for every extra degree.

That’s at in our current climate. What will happen if the world warms by 3°C, which we are still heading towards?

If we assume the whole flora is trying to track their current climate niche, we would likely see 30% of our plant species in Australia moving south. That would be an enormous shift. Almost one in every three species would change in the natural vegetation around us.

What does this mean?

What our data show is that even slight natural changes in temperature have an effect on the species occurring in different regions.

Why do most plant species only occur in a narrow band within the wider range in which they can survive? A long-held theory, dating back to the work of Charles Darwin, is that species ranges are determined more by competition as you head towards warmer temperatures.

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As seas get warmer, tropical species are moving further from the equator

In this theory, some species are simply better at finding and using resources than others. These competitive traits are thought to be fine-tuned to work best at specific temperatures. These species outcompete those with lower growth rates or fitness at these temperatures.

Why wouldn’t superior competitors spread everywhere? Their traits are likely only functional under specific, often narrow, temperature bands. As soon as it gets too cold, they can’t grow as efficiently and other species can compete.

This means the southern limit of an Australian species is determined by its tolerance of cooler temperatures. If you were on a road trip from Cape York to Tasmania, you would see new species appearing and tropical species becoming less common and disappearing as you drove south towards the pole.

When the heat is on, do plants have to move?

Australia’s plant species – especially in the wetter east – tend to be very old. Species with long histories have likely found their ideal temperature niche.

But the climate is heating up rapidly. 2023 was the first full year Earth was 1.5°C hotter than the pre-industrial era.

As temperatures rise, staying put may no longer be possible. More and more species will find themselves out of their preferred temperature niche. They either adapt, move or go locally extinct.

But the evidence so far suggests species will move – if they can.

When species do move, the ecosystems they leave behind and the new ones they move into will change.

We don’t know if all species will be able to move freely down the east coast. Our industrious efforts to make farms, homes, roads and cities have heavily fragmented the natural vegetation. We have converted once-continuous spans of habitats into island-like remnants.

Some species can disperse better and over longer distances between habitat fragments than others. For instance, species with winged or windborne seeds are better dispersers than species with large seeds, which include many of our rainforest species.

The more dispersive species may win the race to secure new climate niches. To avoid some species becoming overly dominant, should we help plant species that don’t spread their seeds well by transplanting seedlings or sowing their seeds? This is an important question for the future to which we don’t yet have an answer.

Our plant species have found their climate niches over millions of years. What our research suggests is that climate change may force a surprising amount of our plants to move.

Read more:
Climate explained: will the tropics eventually become uninhabitable?

Julian Schrader does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Almost a third of Australia’s plant species may have to migrate south if we hit 3 degrees of warming – https://theconversation.com/almost-a-third-of-australias-plant-species-may-have-to-migrate-south-if-we-hit-3-degrees-of-warming-226009

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Xerri, Senior Lecturer in Human Resources, Griffith University

This month, the Fair Work Commission handed Australia’s aged care workforce an historic pay rise, with some groups’ wages set to increase by more than 28%.

The news was a welcome relief for much of the female-dominated workforce, who have faced chronic staffing shortages and poor rates of pay in recent years.

But not everyone working in the aged care industry was counted equally.

A whole host of workers essential to running aged-care facilities – such as cooks, cleaning staff and administrative assistants – are included in what’s called the indirect care workforce. Many of them will get a raise of just 3%.

Australia now risks continuing to leave behind this hardworking and often overlooked group.

Who gets more

Most direct care workers on the Aged Care Award – such as nurses and care staff – will see a big pay increase from July this year, inclusive of an interim 15% raise awarded in 2023.

For example, workers on Level 3 of the award will see an overall wage increase of approximately 23% year over year, while workers on Level 5 (holding Certificate 4 in Aged Care and Disability) will see their pay go up by 28.5%.

Experienced nursing assistants on the new Aged Care Award will also receive a pay increase of 23%.

Who gets left behind

Running an aged care facility is a multifaceted operation. Approximately 100,000 residential aged care workers are in “indirect care” roles, working across administrative and clerical services, food services, and laundry.

In its decision, the commission ruled that a “fundamental difference” between the work of direct and indirect care workers meant they did not deserve an equal pay increase.

The expert panel said:

Without diminishing the importance of the work of indirect care for the proper functioning of residential aged care facilities, the above workers do not perform work equivalent in value to the direct care workers.

For many workers in the areas of infection prevention and control, as well as some indirect workers in dementia wards, it awarded a pay increase of just 3%.

Other segments of the indirect care workforce received greater recognition. Laundry hands, cleaners and food service assistants who interact directly with residents saw this extra contact acknowledged, and won a raise of about 7%.

A widening pay divide impacts quality of care

At 3%, the lowest pay increase for this group is below the current Australian inflation rate of 4.1%. For them, increases in take-home pay will fail to meet the rising cost of living. 7% is only slightly higher, and just a fraction of the raises awarded in direct care.

Pay disparity in the treatment of indirect care workers could further entrench a serious equity divide, the impacts of which we may already be seeing.

At large provider BaptistCare NSW and ACT, employee turnover among direct care workers fell by about 6% after last year’s interim pay rise, to 29.3%. But among their indirect care colleagues who did not receive the raise, turnover remained stubbornly high, above 38%.

High staff turnover poses a serious challenge to delivering quality aged care.

By influencing attitudes at work, the pay divide could also be exerting a profound influence on the quality of care delivered.

BaptistCare NSW & ACT has shared anecdotal reports that indirect care staff have become less willing to assist their higher paid colleagues.

Australia cannot afford further negative influences on its aged care sector.

It hasn’t been long since the Royal Commission into Aged Care found the “unkind and uncaring” system had failed to meet the needs of elderly people, and could even be neglecting them.

Pay rises for direct care workers are an important step in improving the quality of our aged care offering. But we could risk it all if we continue to leave part of its workforce behind.

Read more:
Who will look after us in our final years? A pay rise alone won’t solve aged-care workforce shortages

Matthew Xerri is affiliated with the Centre for Work, Organisation, and Wellbeing at the Griffith Business School, Griffith University.

– ref. Aged care workers have won a huge pay rise. What about the cleaners, cooks and admin staff who support them? – https://theconversation.com/aged-care-workers-have-won-a-huge-pay-rise-what-about-the-cleaners-cooks-and-admin-staff-who-support-them-226236