MIL OSI –
iPredict Update: Ireland To Back Same-Sex Marriage
IRELAND EXPECTED TO VOTE FOR SAME-SEX MARRIAGE
Voters in Ireland are overwhelmingly expected to vote to allow same-sex marriage in a referendum on 22 May, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Elsewhere in Europe, the UK Conservatives have lost ground to smaller parties over the last week putting the 7 May election on a knife-edge. In New Zealand, more than 20 Queensland fruit flies are now expected to be found as part of the current outbreak but there has been no change in economic forecasts. John Key and National have made a small gain over the last week. National’s Mark Osborne is overwhelmingly expected to win the Northland by-election ahead of NZ First’s Winston Peters, although with less than 50% of the vote. Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime has 0% probability of winning the seat. The Liberal/National Coalition is favoured ahead of Labor in New South Wales. Tony Abbott looks safe as Australian Prime Minister until midyear but is still expected to be replaced by Malcolm Turnbull before the next federal election.
New Zealand Politics:
· National’s Mark Osborne expected to win Northland by-election (88% probability) but to fall short of 50% of the vote (only 29% probability of winning more than 50%)
· Only an 11% probability the byelection will be won by a party other than National or Labour, and a 0% probability it will be won by Labour
· Kevin Hague overwhelmingly favoured to be next Green Party co-leader (94% probability, down from 95% last week)
· John Key is expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (79% probability, down from 80% last week) and has a 50% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (up from 49% last week)
· Steven Joyce remains favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (28%, down from 29% last week), followed by Paula Bennett (28%, up from 26%) and Amy Adams (12%, steady)
· Stocks on Andrew Little’s longevity as leader of the Labour Party will be launched in the near future
· Judith Collins expected to be appointed to Cabinet before next election (60% probability, steady compared with last week)
· Next election expected in 2017 (92% probability, steady compared with last week)
· Forecast party vote shares at next election:
o National 45.2% (steady compared with last week)
o Labour 32.1% (steady)
o Greens 11.0% (down from 11.1%)
o NZ First 6.9% (steady)
o Others 4.8% (up from 4.7%)
· National expected to win 2017 General Election (57% probability, up from 55% last week)
· Wellington councils not expected to be amalgamated by end of 2015 (only 43% probability they will be, steady compared with last week)
New Zealand Economics:
· More than 20 Queensland fruitflies expected to be found in New Zealand as part of current outbreak (55% probability)
· New Zealand dollar expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (69% probability, down from 75% last week) but not before July 2015 (30% probability, down from 53% last week)
· Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:
o 0.7% in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)
o 1.1% in the June quarter (steady)
o 1.1% in the September quarter (steady)
o 1.1% in the December quarter (steady)
· Annual growth expected to be 4.0% in the 2015 calendar year (steady compared with last week)
· Unemployment expected to be:
o 5.4% in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)
o 5.3% in the June quarter (steady)
o 5.2% in the September quarter (steady)
o 5.3% in the December quarter (steady)
· Current account deficit expected to be 3.5% of GDP in the December quarter (steady compared with last week) and 3.4% in the March quarter (steady)
· Annual inflation expected to be:
o 0.3% to end of March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)
o 0.6% to end of June 2015 quarter (steady)
o 0.8% to end of September 2015 quarter (steady)
o 1.0% to end of December 2015 quarter (steady)
· Official Cash Rate priced to be:
o 3.495% on 12 March (steady compared with last week)
o 3.488% on 30 April (steady)
o 3.447% on 11 June (down from 3.450%)
o 3.421% on 23 July (down from 3.424%)
o 3.384% on 10 September (down from 3.386%)
o 3.365% on 29 October (down from 3.367%)
o 3.360% on 10 December 2015 (down from 3.372%)
o This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 29 October (steady compared with last week)
o OCR stocks out to June 2016 will be launched in the near future
· Only 18% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (up from 17% last week)
· Fiscal balance expected to be:
o -0.18% of GDP in 2014/15 (down from -0.17% last week)
o 0.81% of GDP in 2015/16 (down from 0.85%)
o 1.98% of GDP in 2016/17 (steady)
o 2.38% of GDP in 2017/18 (steady)
· There is a 63% probability Fonterra’s payout in 2015/16 will be above $6.00 (before retentions) up from 55% last week
Foreign Affairs/Constitution:
· Next UK Parliament expected to consist of:
o Labour 38.1% of seats in the House of Commons (up from 37.1% last week)
o Conservatives 34.1% of seats in the House of Commons (down from 37.9%)
o Nationalist parties 6.8% of seats (up from 6.6%)
o UKIP and similar 6.4% of seats (up from 5.7%)
o Liberal Democrats 5.5% of seats (up from 4.9%)
o Unionist parties 2.3% of seats (up from 2.1%)
o Green and similar 2.2% of seats (up from 1.9%)
o Independents and Speaker 2.1% of seats (up from 1.9%)
o All others 2.3% of seats (up from 2.0%)
· David Cameron expected to be prime minister after next UK election but with just 52% probability, down from 57% last week
· Boris Johnson expected to be elected to UK House of Commons this year (92% probability, steady)
· Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (60% probability, steady compared with last week)
· All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (only 12% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, down from 13% last week)
· New South Wales Liberal/National Coalition expected to win most seats in NSW state election (80% probability)
· Tony Abbott is expected to remain leader of the Australian Liberal Party until 1 July 2015 (only 38% probability of departing before then, up from 23% last week) but be replaced by Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Australian Liberal Party by nomination day (60% probability Turnbull will be leader on that day, down from 69% last week)
· Bill Shorten expected to be Labor leader at next Australian federal election (90% probability)
· Liberals now marginally ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (52% probability of Liberal win, up from 50% last week)
· Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (47% probability, down from 48% last week). Jeb Bush has a 39% probability of being the Republican nominee (steady compared with last week) followed by Scott Walker (22% probability, up from 20% last week)
· There is only a 31% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (steady compared with last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 31% probability it will be, steady compared with last week)
· Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General are 23% (down from 25% last week)
· There is an 11% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (down from 13% last week)
· Ireland to vote in favour of same-sex marriage before July 2015 (92% probability)
Notes:
· iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.
· The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 12.51 pm today.
150303-1251-Economic-and-Political-Update-FINAL.pdf
