Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ)
A government in trouble is like an aircraft in a dangerous plunge. It can be pulled out of the dive if its mechanical problems are fixable and the piloting sufficiently skilful. If those conditions are not met, however, the plane will crash land, with who knows what degree of damage.
Anthony Albanese and his government have seriously lost altitude.
We saw something similar before the 2025 election, and then the captain and crew didn’t just stabilise the plane – they flew it to an unexpected height. But every flight is a new journey.
Albanese would use a different word picture. He recently told his worried caucus, “we’ll be kicking with the wind in the fourth quarter”.
It’s his old line and it proved true last time. But the wind direction in 2028 is unpredictable.
What is clear is the shine has well and truly disappeared from Albanese’s leadership.
Albanese was never a charismatic leader, neither a great orator nor an innovative policy thinker. He says people always underestimated him. Perhaps it was more a case of underestimating how far he could rise. He’s a superior tactician, honed in the fires of Labor’s left, with long experience in politics and in government. That gave him a competent skill set in his bid for the prime ministership. Fortuitous circumstances helped with the rest.
In both 2022 and 2025 he benefitted less from having a tailwind than from his opponents facing strong headwinds. Voters wanted to dispatch Scott Morrison. Then they couldn’t stomach Peter Dutton.
Albanese is in his present dire trouble because of multiple factors, some outside his control, others his own fault.
Voters’ black mood reflects in large part the serious financial straits many families are in with the cost-of-living pressures and the real wages slump. Annual real wages are not forecast to begin growing again until towards the end of 2027.
Albanese said in March 2025, “Australians have gone through a difficult time over the last five years. […] What we’ve done, as a fact is to introduce cost-of-living relief […] We are turning the corner. Australians now are getting real wage increases five quarters in a row. Interest rates have begun to fall. Inflation has declined to the lower half of the Reserve Bank band.”
Voters see that narrative was quite wrong. They can’t, either, feel much effect from the cost-of-living relief. They’re unimpressed by declarations that the government feels their pain. Now they want to see what plan the government has to get the economy, and their personal financial lives, into a better place. Unfortunately that’s easier said than done.
Albanese has played into people’s perception that the word of politicians can’t be trusted. His now notorious fall off a stage was nothing in itself, but his disputing that he did fall turned it into a damaging symbol. His poor judgement and stubbornness in dealing with the stage incident manifested again in his handling of the aftermath from the Bushie podcast in which he unthinkingly insulted the Japanese PM (although the initial judgement lapse was in agreeing to the podcast in the first place).
Albanese last term got away with breaking his promise not to change the stage three tax cuts. The reworking could be justified in the name of equity, and the breach was a one-off.
But the May budget’s spectacular broken promises, on negative gearing and capital gains tax, crossed a tipping point. It now looked like a pattern. Albanese had been so emphatic during the campaign when questioned about these taxes. His rationalisation, “we have changed our position”, came across as frustratingly slick and unconvincing, indeed insulting, as if it had all been a clever con.
The trust problem was worsened by the budget’s messy landing, necessitating concessions. The pluses and minuses of the shock to the housing sector are being hotly debated, with the longer term implications unclear.
The post budget battle has been against a background of continuing high inflation culminating in five interest rate rises this year and increasing pressure on the government over its spending. Labor rejects claims of fiscal profligacy, but acknowledges they must be addressed in the December’s half-yearly budget update, and into 2027.
Not always but typically, voters go through a cycle in their attitude to leaders. Initial positivity fades, replaced by boredom or negativity. Albanese was seen as a safe pair of hands, a benign well-intentioned leader, at a personal level always going on about his rugby league team and his fluffy white dog Toto. But now even many staunch Labor people are “over” him.
He has never excelled at communication. Testing times accentuate his rambling at news conferences, his failure to directly answer difficult questions, a tendency to impatience. In opposition he preached the need for accountability and openness. This week one of his former press secretaries who has returned to journalism called him out for making announcements at news conferences before the reporters are given the relevant material that would allow them to ask informed questions. Control and secrecy are marks of this government.
Those on the left complained in Albanese’s first term that he should be more of a “Labor reformer”. The strength of these calls (plus the size of the 2025 win) may have been important in leading him to go the whole hog and embrace the controversial tax agenda for the May budget.
After a term and a half, the Hawke government had laid down some markers for its legacy, with a start on serious economic reform. In a similar timeframe, the Howard government was embarking on its sweeping tax shakeup.
Where is Albanese’s legacy up to?
The first term was supposed to deliver the Voice as an enduring achievement. That failed, proving divisive and its defeat resulting in the government stepping back and leaving a void in indigenous policy.
The 2026 budget was designed to build a legacy, in its significant realignment of taxation, away from benefitting investors and their assets and towards helping workers; a shift from older people to the younger generations. But it turned into an exploding cigar.
Albanese is still to set up a credible legacy. Time is running out because, assuming he does win the 2028 election, he’d be expected to depart during the following term. In the meantime he has to find ways for that plane to steady and regain some altitude.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/11/12/grattan-on-friday-can-albanese-regain-political-altitude-for-labor-and-himself/