Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ)
He is in his late fifties and lives outside a capital city. He owns his home — most often outright — and he still gets up and goes to work. He did a trade or a TAFE diploma rather than a degree, speaks only English at home, and calls his background Australian.
This is not a portrait of the fringe. It is a portrait of the part of Australia that used to be called the mainstream.
This was once a depiction of the “Howard battlers”, later “Tony’s tradies”. Now it’s Pauline Hanson who has a grip on many of these people, with who they are and what they think documented in an in-depth survey of more than 1000 One Nation voters.
For the major parties, especially the Liberals and Nationals but increasingly Labor too, these One Nation supporters are the wolves in the woods, dangerous and potentially lethal in coming contests for seats.
In the wake of last weekend’s Western Australian state byelection (lost by Labor to One Nation) and the May federal Farrer byelection (a One Nation rout of the Liberals), and with the Victorian and New South Wales elections looming, the “parties of government” know they must find ways to counter this insurgency of electoral disillusionment. That’s assuming it can be countered.
Key to the struggle ahead is understanding the identity of these rebels against the “system”.
The research is from former Labor pollster John Utting and former Labor adviser Bruce Hawker. Done in August, it gives a comprehensive picture of the demographics and views of this cohort.
The report concludes: “This is no longer a conventional protest vote, it has become considerably more entrenched”.
Utting told The Conversation on Friday: “It would be foolish to underestimate One Nation voters’ degree of alienation from the existing political system and traditional parties – and the potential for them to really restructure how politics is done in this country”.
Unsurprisingly, the poll found these voters are reacting to two big issues above all others – immigration and the cost of living, and the failure, as they see it, of major parties to deal with them.
“One Nation’s rise is as much a story of Liberal failure as of One Nation success,” the report says. “Immigration and the cost of living created the conditions. Labor is overwhelmingly rejected by these voters, and the Liberals have not offered them a convincing alternative”.
The further from a capital the stronger the vote, the polling found. These voters are older than average, with more than six in ten men, while more than three quarters own their own home, and about six in ten are still working. They are overwhelmingly Anglo-Australian.
One Nation support is strongest in Queensland (the home of Pauline Hanson) and South Australia (where the party now has seven in the state parliament after performing well at this year’s election) and weakest in NSW and Victoria. In each of the latter two states, it was at 20% in this poll.
“Tradies are the heartland of One Nation support,” the report says. In household incomes the One Nation voters are spread relatively evenly through the middle three of the five income quintiles – a range of between $60,000 and $195,000.
Two thirds (67%) say their household is worse off than three or four years ago.
The single largest source of One Nation voters is former Coalition voters (38%). Seven in ten present One Nation supporters voted for some other party at the 2025 federal election or didn’t vote at all. Only 17% of them voted Labor.
Their degree of alienation is highlighted by 71% agreeing with the proposition that most politicians look after themselves not the country.
More than nine in ten (91%) think the country is on the wrong track, especially because of immigration and living standards.
This is much higher than in the general population, where the feeling the country is headed in the wrong direction is also widespread. An Essential poll published this week had about 58% saying the country was headed in the wrong direction.
The One Nation voters’ biggest worry with immigration is the number of people coming in (42%), followed by the pressure on housing and services (28%) and concern about crime and safety (17%). In results drawn from open-ended questions only 5% mentioned Muslims and Islam specifically.
But asked their specific reason for wanting lower immigration, 57% nominated immigration changing Australia’s culture and identity too much.
The report identified two strong narratives coming through in relation to immigration, represented by these individual quotes:
..“You can’t bring in that many people and not build the houses.”
..“You walk through parts of the city and it doesn’t feel like the same place.”
A little under half (45%) say they support One Nation mainly because of what the party stands for, while about a third (34%) say they support it mainly because they feel the other parties have let them down. One in five says they support it mainly because of Pauline Hanson.
The view among “low commitment” One Nation voters is they have been let down by the major parties.
The votes of more than half of One Nation voters (52%) are locked in, but many are less attached – four in ten have come to support the party only in the last year.
Asked to rank major parties and major figures, One Nation and Pauline Hanson rate top. They are followed by Ben Roberts-Smith, the Victoria Cross winner who is facing changes of war crimes. He has been strongly backed by Hanson. Roberts-Smith rates slightly above Barnaby Joyce, who defected to One Nation from the Nationals.
The One Nation voters were overwhelmingly opposed to the Labor government and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. More than seven in ten said Albanese said one thing and did another.
Asked what Labor would have to do at get their interest. two thirds said cut immigration.
They are not much impressed with Angus Taylor, although more than a quarter say they could return to the Liberals under the right circumstances, such as cutting immigration.
Despite the major parties attacking One Nation for lacking policies or deliverable policies, 87% think One Nation has clear workable plans to deliver what it promises. Half think One Nation can win government in its own right.
Tobacco wars
The Coalition and One Nation are squabbling over their respective policies to cut excise on tobacco in an effort to counter the tobacco crime wars which have seen many shops set on fire. One Nation got its policy out first, advocating a 75% cut. This week the Coalition released its policy, urging an 80% cut. On Friday, Taylor attacked One Nation’s plan as not properly costed.
Meanwhile, One Nation is running into some problems with its Victorian candidates. It is accused of misrepresenting the qualifications of one candidate, while another, Ben Lucas, who is running for Narracan in West Gippsland, pleaded guilty on Friday to operating a category-one aquatic facility without registering it with the shire council.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/09/04/view-from-the-hill-howards-battlers-and-tonys-tradies-are-now-responding-to-the-drum-beat-of-one-nation/