Source: The Conversation – UK
Ongoing problems in the criminal justice system in England and Wales, from overcrowding in prisons to court backlogs, have raised fundamental questions about how and why we punish people.
Advocates for a more rehabilitative, less punitive system often point to Scandinavian prisons as a model for how things could be done better.
My colleagues and I wanted to find out how beliefs about free will and crime may influence different approaches to punishment. In a recent study of 328 people across the UK, Norway and Sweden, we found that the more strongly someone believed in free will – that people freely choose how they behave – the harsher the punishment they favoured. The effect was modest but consistent.
Behind our research is an age-old question: do people commit crimes because they freely choose to, or because their lives are shaped by factors such as upbringing, poverty, trauma, mental health, neurological differences and circumstance? Research suggests that belief in free will is widespread, but that people’s views about choice, causation and responsibility are often more mixed and inconsistent than a simple either/or divide.
Our study, led by recent graduate Haakon Solum, suggests that where people place that balance differs across countries, and shapes what they think people who commit crimes deserve.
The prison system in England and Wales is under acute pressure: a 2025 Public Accounts Committee report described an estate in crisis with little capacity left to rehabilitate. The Prison Reform Trust reports almost three-quarters of prisons were overcrowded in 2024-25. Yet public debate often returns to one question: are we being tough enough on crime?
To explore how free will beliefs relate to attitudes on punishment, participants in the study read a short scenario describing a serious violent crime. They then rated how severely the person should be punished and what that punishment should achieve. They also completed the free will inventory, a standard measure developed by researchers in philosophy, psychology and cognitive science, separating belief in free choice from belief that behaviour is shaped by underlying causes.
Participants were recruited in all three countries and could complete the survey in their own language. They were reached online rather than through nationally representative sampling. Everyone responded to the same scenario, so the findings are best seen as indicative, and would need testing across different kinds of offences.
Free will and punishment
Respondents in the UK held the strongest free will beliefs, and were also the most punitive group. They were almost twice as likely as Norwegian participants to favour harsher sentencing.
This finding echoes a 2014 study showing that when people see behaviour as shaped by underlying causes, they become less supportive of punishment purely for retribution.
The most revealing result from our study came when rehabilitation was factored into the equation. Even when told the person had completed a rehabilitation programme described as fully effective, those with stronger free-will beliefs still tended to favour further punishment. If punishment were only about preventing further harm, that would make little sense. It suggests our participants were not asking “what will stop this happening again?” but “what does this person deserve?”
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Norwegian participants placed more importance than those in the UK on understanding why someone had offended, as well as on access to treatment. This fits with Norway’s strong international reputation for a rehabilitative system, one which a 2023 study found is more humane than in England and Wales (though some prisoners still experience it as painful and punitive).
Sweden was the surprise. We expected Sweden to resemble Norway, given its own historically prevention-focused penal tradition. Instead, Swedish participants were more punitive than Norwegians, and no different from those in the UK in the importance they placed on understanding why someone offended, or on treatment. Public attitudes, it seems, do not simply follow formal penal philosophy, they may shift as fear and politics change.
As recently as 2014, Sweden was closing prisons and reducing the prison population. It has since been building them in response to rising concern about gang violence and a series of tougher sentencing reforms. Recent research based on interviews with Swedish prison staff and other professionals suggests this shift is eroding the country’s traditionally rehabilitative model.
This brings us back to the UK. England and Wales already imprison large numbers of people, yet reoffending remains a persistent problem. The Public Accounts Committee warned that a system consumed by finding enough places has little capacity left for the rehabilitation that might reduce it.
There are signs of a different, more preventive approach in youth justice emerging in England and Wales, favouring early intervention and using custody only where necessary. This approach gives greater weight to immaturity, exploitation and unmet need than to simple individual choice. This applies specifically to children, rather than the system as a whole. It sits alongside a more punitive reality in adult justice, where the government is expanding prison capacity to meet rising demand, though simultaneously moving towards shorter sentences to address the overcrowding crisis.
Prevention and rehabilitation both start from a similar premise: that understanding why people offend can help reduce future harm. This is not about excusing crime or dismissing victims. Beliefs about free will matter because they shape the balance we expect justice systems to strike, between responding seriously to harm and investing in the conditions that make future harm less likely.
Zoe Stephenson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/07/22/people-in-the-uk-favour-harsher-punishment-than-norwegians-belief-in-free-will-may-help-explain-why/