Disaster warning overhaul at risk, documents show

Source: Radio New Zealand

As Northland recovers from another storm, officials in Wellington are trying to fix the disaster warning and communications systems that have failed repeatedly for two decades.

The systems came up short in Cyclone Gabrielle when people did not get alerts in time and rescuers often had to guess what was going on.

They have got further than ever before on what they are calling “a once in a generation opportunity to significantly uplift the supporting systems”.

Several business cases are ready to build the technology – such as a national warning system – and a review found the phased approach was sound.

The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) told RNZ it was “moving to the delivery phase” of the five-year programme.

But warning signs have also been flashing.

The latest review released under the Official Information Act (OIA), from six months ago, said the project was “feasible, but significant issues already exist” that demanded “constant and high-level attention” so that risks did not “materialise into major issues threatening delivery”.

At that stage, last September, the business cases appeared to have “substantially underestimated” how much technical, operational and cultural capability had to be built.

“The review team heard that critical questions remain unanswered regarding the fundamental information architecture: what data will be stored, how it will be gathered systematically, and crucially, how it will be transformed into actionable intelligence rather than merely aggregated information.”

Having rated the project amber – on a red-amber-green scale – the ‘Gateway’ review listed six “do now” urgent tasks to resolve them, including a risk assessment.

That assessment, released under the OIA, showed a “high” and ongoing risk of major impact if a national disaster hit while the new systems were still being built over the next five years.

The system ‘will not cope’

The system gaps have proven fatal before when people have not been warned in time, or rescued from their roofs in time, by emergency responders flying partly blind by lack of proper real-time shared data systems, epitomised in Cyclone Gabrielle and the failed response in the Esk Valley.

It goes way back. In 2004, a review said the existing national crisis management centre information system “will not cope with a national emergency of a magnitude, scale or duration greater than the recent February 2004 floods”.

Two decades on, last July NEMA told companies at a ‘town hall’ to learn what the tech options were: “Over the past 20 years, there’s been numerous reports highlighting the need for improved technology. Our technology is not fit for the fit for purpose for the sector.

“NEMA does not have a suitable modern platform for delivering its core functions before, during, and after a response.

“NEMA currently relies on a mix of disparate basic collaboration tools which are highly manual, prone to error, and can create risk during an emergency.”

Basically, it faced disasters with little situational awareness, it told MPs in 2024, a year after Gabrielle.

‘Anchor’ programme

RNZ asked for the most substantive and up-to-date documents. The agency withheld four business cases on confidentiality and commercial grounds. Asked for advice and briefings to ministers since last October, NEMA advised there were none within the specified timeframe.

It told the companies: “There is real enthusiasm within the sector to finally be able to go and improve our information and management systems, to support the sector, to keep New Zealanders safe and improve community resilience before, during and after an event.”

It was “very interested” in the cost and told the businesses to provide rough figures that nevertheless would not need much tweaking.

The Emergency Management Sector Operational Systems Programme runs from 2026 for five years. Described as the “anchor” project of the government’s work to strengthen emergency management, it is still subject to policy work, legislation and funding.

It includes setting up:

• a foundational data platform that is a a consolidated “single source of the truth” across local, regional and national emergency management agencies;
• a standardised national visualisation tool called a common operating picture, or COP;
• a national warning system;
• operational systems for NEMA to nationally coordinate response and recovery.

In September, the agency found a preferred solution for all this but details were scarce as the business cases were withheld.

‘More intractable’

However, as big as the tech build appeared – and that work demonstrated “considerable sophistication” – the even more crucial work was “more intractable” and in fact beyond NEMA as things stood, the review last September said.

“The organisational foundations necessary for successful delivery remain underdeveloped,” it said.

“The contrast between technical readiness and institutional capacity presents the programme’s most significant strategic challenge.”

The long patchy history of disaster response had led to the 16 Civil Defence Emergency Management Groups nationwide sometimes doing their own thing and implementing “part solutions” that did not fit with others.

For instance, in 2011 when central Civil Defence introduced new disaster tech, it struggled to “convince the nationwide CDEM (Civil Defence Emergency Management) sector to fully uptake the tool”. By 2013 the groups were failing to turn up at meetings, official reports showed.

Fifteen years on, and “fundamental cultural transformation across the entire emergency management system” was essential, the September review said.

“The proposed shift from fragmented, agency-centric operational models toward integrated, sector-wide coordination represents not merely a technical upgrade but a comprehensive reimagining of institutional relationships and working practices that have evolved over decades.

“This cultural transformation challenge may prove more intractable than the technical implementation aspects.”

It warned Wellington not to lose support of the groups that had begun to buy in on the current overhaul.

“The phrase ‘don’t go dark on us and then expect us to reheat the meal’ resonated with the Review Team.”

Timeline

• 2004, 2017, 2020 – Inquiries into flood responses find big disaster system gaps. Various patchy tech systems are set up over the years.
• 2023 – Gabrielle and the North Island storms spark 26 separate inquiries.
• 2024 – NEMA develops a business case for implementing recommendations of those inquiries.
• 2025 – NEMA asks tech companies for advice, develops business cases – and a Gateway review delivers warnings.
• 2026 – The five-year Emergency Management Sector Operational Systems Programme official begins.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand