Source: Radio New Zealand
Four of the government’s nine key targets risk not being met, the latest update shows.
People receiving Jobseeker benefits have increased significantly to 223,500 and education targets remain elusive.
A target to reduce the number of households in emergency accommodation has been met well ahead of schedule, as has a goal to reduce the number of victims of assault or robbery.
RNZ is tracking progress towards each of the government’s nine targets, which were announced by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in April 2024. The targets were chosen to focus the public sector on priorities, and progress is updated each quarter.
Employment and education goals – in reading, writing and mathematics – are classified as “at risk” of not being met. Two health targets are considered “feasible”: still possible, but behind schedule and facing “major risks and/or issues”.
Targets considered “on track” include reducing the number of households in emergency housing, cutting crime and youth offending, and meeting near-term greenhouse gas emission targets. Officials also say lifting school attendance is “probable”.
Each responsible agency assigns a status to progress, ranging from “on track” to “unachievable”. Progress toward reaching a target can still be classed as “feasible”, even if there are major risks or issues in meeting it, as long as the agency in charge believes these can be resolved.
The nine targets are set to be delivered by 2030, beyond the current political term.
Health
Achieving the goal for 95 percent of patients to be admitted, discharged or transferred from an emergency department within six hours remains far adrift.
The latest update shows 68.9 percent of patients are seen within that timeframe – a drop from 73.9 percent in the last quarter, and only 0.9 percent better than the September 2023 baseline figure of 68 percent.
The government’s update notes that the drop is in line with winter patterns from previous years.
When setting this target, officials warned there was a risk it would not be achievable in the short term.
“Most ED [emergency departments] nationwide are over capacity most of the time,” a briefing to ministers read.
It said wait times were affected by resourcing, community services, bed availability and seasonal changes, such as increased demand during flu season.
Attempting to reduce wait times would require significant system-wide change in hospitals, primary care and aged care, the briefing said.
“There would be a risk the target is achieved by focusing resources intensively in ED at the expense of other areas of the health system. This may result in improved ED wait times in the short term, but – through reduction in the quality of care elsewhere – would likely result in worse health outcomes and ultimately higher ED presentations in the medium to long term.”
This update noted there was a $20 million boost to emergency departments to increase frontline staffing as well as $164m over four years for new and improved urgent and after-hours care.
Palmerston North Hospital’s emergency department was being updated and 140 new inpatient wards have been fast-tracked across Hawke’s Bay, Nelson, Middlemore, Wellington Regional and Waikato hospitals.
Reaching the 95 percent goal by 2030 is considered feasible, meaning there are major risks to achievement.
The second health target for 95 percent of people to receive elective treatment within four months is a long way away from being achieved, although tracking in the right direction.
At the moment 65.9 percent of people needing elective treatments, such as hip or cataract surgeries, are seen within four months. This is higher than the 63.9 percent reported in the last quarter. This is the best result since September 2021.
The private sector is being used to tackle the waitlist, with 18 percent of treatments in the 2025/2026 year planned to be delivered by private providers. The latest report says 21,000 procedures will be funded through an Elective Boost programme.
The latest update says that at the end of June 2025 there were no patients waiting longer than two years that didn’t have a plan in place.
Delivery of this target is considered feasible, indicating there are still major risks.
Crime
The number of serious and persistent youth offenders has decreased to 856 and has now reached the target of 900 or fewer well ahead of 2030.
For a youth offender to be classed as a serious or persistent offender they must have committed three or more offences in the past 12 months, with at least one of them having a maximum penalty of seven years’ imprisonment or more.
Bootcamps, improving response teams and locally-led initiatives and increased school attendance are listed as areas the government is focused on to reach the target.
The latest update also said the second reading of the Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Amendment Bill, is due to occur and this will strengthen the Government’s response to youth offenders.
The goal to reduce crime is classed as on track and has been reached ahead of the 2030 deadline, falling to 135,797, an improvement on the target of 165,000.
This target was kept as one of the nine government targets, despite officials suggesting it would be difficult to achieve and should be replaced with something easier to reach.
The goal is based on data from the New Zealand Crime and Victims’ Survey. Officials warned the survey data had a high margin of error and was more suitable for showing long-term trends.
The survey asks respondents about their experience of reported and unreported crime over the past 12 months. The latest figures represent the survey’s annual results. Quarterly data is potentially more volatile and may fluctuate.
Initiatives to reach the target include the Three Strikes sentencing reform, gang harm legislation, improving security at targeted locations and breaking the cycle of violence with expanded drug and alcohol interventions for in remand custody.
Employment
The number of people receiving Jobseeker support has risen by 5700 to 223,500 since the September report. This target remains classified as “at risk”. It is 83,500 away from the overall goal of 140,000 or fewer people receiving support by 2030.
The government’s update suggested the flow of people receiving the Jobseeker benefit will decrease as economic conditions improve. Measures to reduce the number of people on Jobseeker benefit include community job coaches, and placing 4000 Jobseeker Support Health Condition or Disability clients with case management with a view to a graduated return to work.
A test for Jobseeker eligibility for 18 and 19-year-olds was announced in October, which will mean applicants whose parents have a combined income above $65,529 will be ineligible for the benefit. It’s estimated 4300 young people will be affected by this.
Education
At 50.3 percent, Term 2’s attendance rate is well below the target of 80 percent of students present for more than 90 percent of the term. This means students should take no more than five days off a term.
Absence is classed as either “justified” or “unjustified”. Justified absences include illnesses, and other reasons which fall under school policy, such as suspensions. Unjustified absences include truancy, or taking holidays in term time. The government target of 80 percent makes no distinction between the two.
Attendance management plans have been implemented from 2026, these are now mandatory. They include attendance targets for schools, and a process to identify and manage absences.
Since 2011, the highest percentage of students attending 90 percent of a school term was 72.8 percent, in Term 1 of 2019. The average over that time was 59.4 percent.
Reaching this target is deemed “probable”.
Currently 47 percent of students are at the expected level in reading, 24 percent in writing and 23 percent in mathematics. It remains unchanged from previous reports due to the current reporting cycle. New twice-yearly assessments will commence in Term 2, along with a new tool to monitor and assess students.
A structured literacy programme has been rolled out, along with a refreshed curriculum. Mathematics and writing action plans have been launched to raise achievement.
This target is considered to be “at risk” of not being met.
Housing
Driving down the number of households in emergency housing is one target where progress leapt ahead of estimates.
From a baseline of 3141 households, the goal was to reduce the number by 75 percent, to 800 or fewer.
The current number is 444, well below the 800 which was the 2030 goal. Although it is three higher than the September update.
Part of the plan to reach the target includes improving access to other forms of housing for emergency housing residents. As of December, 1095 households (with 2340 children), have been housed in a social housing tenancy.
This is an increase of 11 households and 12 children since September’s report.
Climate
Ministry for the Environment / MfE projections corrected in January 2026
There are two targets New Zealand has committed to meeting as part of its net zero climate change goal.
The first target is for total greenhouse gas emissions between 2022 and 2025 to be below 290 megatonnes. The second target is for total emissions to be less than 305 megatonnes.
This latest government report says this target is on track, with a smaller buffer than previously reported due to a data error.
A decision on whether savings made in the first budget period being counted toward hitting the 2026 to 2030 period will be decided in 2028.
Among the work listed to ensure the target is reached was the announcement by the end of March of loans to expand electric vehicle charging stations. However, the government is considering scrapping the clean car standard.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
