Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ)
Going by recent opinion polls, the combined votes of National and Labour in the coming election may be the lowest ever – below 60%.
This might be a temporary dip, and the familiar National-Labour pendulum may swing back in future elections. Or it could signal a long-term trend. Results below 30%, or even 25%, will become normal for both.
Political fragmentation will see the “legacy” parties that dominated the postwar era shrink while others grow in size and number. Government formation will be more complicated.
This phenomenon is well advanced in many countries with proportional representation systems. The old left-right axis is intersected by environmental, economic and social concerns – from immigration and house prices to climate change and war in Palestine and Ukraine – that disrupt the old order.
For example, the Social Democrats won the most seats in Denmark’s 2026 election, but with only 21.8% of the vote. The Green Left party came second with 11.6%. The centre-right Venstre party fell to 10.1%.
Twelve parties in all won seats. A four-party minority coalition government, led by Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats, was sworn in ten weeks later.
In Germany, which uses a similar mixed member proportional (MMP) system to New Zealand, the conservative CDU/CSU coalition is now polling below 20%, and the Social Democratic Party below 15%. The populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) leads in the high 20s.
New Zealand’s 2026 election may represent a historic watershed in the evolution of a similar process.
The Waitangi divide
If there is one issue unique to Aotearoa New Zealand that serves to illustrate the relative collapse of the centre, it’s the fate of the Waitangi Tribunal.
Te Pāti Māori and the Green Party want the tribunal’s recommendations to be “binding” on governments as part of a “constitutional transformation”. The ACT and NZ First parties propose winding up or abolishing the tribunal once historical claims are settled.
Meanwhile, in the middle, a consensus has evolved that the tribunal, the courts and the public service – and hence schools and other public institutions – should continue on a journey of bicultural recognition and partnership.
But public support for that centrist consensus – gradually shifting constitutional practice without rocking the boat – is not as solid as many had assumed or hoped. This has been challenging for Labour and National, both wanting to appeal to broader constituencies than may exist.
In a 1News Verian poll in late 2024, 39% of respondents said they didn’t know enough about the ACT Party’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill to either support or oppose it. Only a minority (36%) actually opposed it.
In another poll from earlier that year, 52% said they didn’t really understand the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi in the first place.
Does “not knowing enough” signify ignorance or just a reluctance to say out loud what they really think? It could be both. People may reserve their opinions for fear of being called misinformed, uneducated or racist.
Those who openly oppose Treaty-based co-governance can be dismissed as “grumpy old white men” who – like the dinosaurs – will soon be extinct. Demography is destiny, it’s often thought, as better-educated younger generations continue down the bicultural path.
But this kind of optimism about progressive opinion has been known to fail politically. International examples of polarisation and fragmentation show resistance to an established consensus may regenerate rather than die out.
For example, an Australian poll earlier this year found a boost in support for the populist One Nation Party among millennials aged between 30 and 45, not only among older voters.
In the United States, those born in the 1980s, 1990s or 2000s “became more likely” to favour Donald Trump between 2020 and 2024, according to Pew Research (although his job approval rating has dropped significantly since 2024).
Because people’s values and preferences change over time, we can’t assume conservative ideas are dying out and progressive opinion represents the future.
Despite reasonable accusations of stoking racism, populist parties such as Germany’s AfD have risen because those sentiments existed already, albeit previously muted.
Such parties give license to believe things many people had felt couldn’t be talked about. An established political consensus about the economic and social benefits of immigration and diversity is now openly challenged.
Change and adaptation
In New Zealand, then, polarised opinion about the future of the Waitangi Tribunal may be a key political battle that continues to challenge the legacy parties’ consensus and helps smaller parties grow on either side.
Right-wing parties upset the centrist orthodoxy, boosted by anger over changes people have neither understood nor approved. Left-wing alternatives draw from an opposing constituency angry about colonisation and racism and demanding “equity”.
The legacy parties have largely failed to deal with this erosion of political consensus and trust. Their “big tents” aren’t big enough to accommodate today’s disputes.
Adaptation to this new normal will require change from voters and the media, as well as the political parties themselves.
National and Labour will need to hear and understand dissenting views without simply caving in. That will mean getting better at multi-constituency coalition building, and moving away from “ruling out” working with other parties before an election is even held.
Political journalists will have to get away from “horse race” punditry and grilling leaders on whether they’ll resign if their polling falls below a certain level.
Voters will need to accept the next government may well be built from four parties. Internationally, this is normal, but it takes time – and some compromises. There needn’t be any anxious talk of a “hung parliament”.
If we are witnessing a process of political fragmentation in New Zealand, the real challenge will be to make the system respond constructively. Good leadership will be essential.
From the cost of living to how best to tackle climate change, the coming election involves some big choices.
This article is part of The Conversation’s Election 2026 series: expert analysis of the major policy debates and the big challenges New Zealand’s next government will face.
Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/10/06/nzs-next-government-could-be-a-four-party-coalition-get-used-to-the-new-normal/