Source: The Conversation – Canada
Global climate warming is expected to cross the 1.5 C temperature threshold — the lower limit of the Paris Agreement temperature goal — within a handful of years. This temperature increase shows no signs of slowing, and on our current trajectory, Canada is likely to experience temperatures 5 C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
These are the headline messages of two major climate reports that were released earlier this month: The United Nations Environment Programme’s Limiting Overshoot report is a stark reminder that global climate mitigation efforts have been insufficient to avoid exceeding this critical climate target. Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026 shows in detail just what the consequences of this global failure could mean for Canadians.
None of this is good news, nor is it surprising. In 2015, the same year that the Paris Agreement was signed, I joined with colleagues in Montréal and around the world to launch the Climate Clock project, which for the past decade has counted down the time remaining until we reach the 1.5 C above pre-industrial temperatures.
I hoped at the time that global mitigation efforts would succeed in reducing emissions and adding time to the clock. This has not happened fast enough, and the clock now shows less than four years remaining until 1.5 C is crossed.
The consequences of this continued climate warming are also not surprising to those of us who participated in writing Canada’s Changing Climate Report. In the report, we presented evidence of increases in heat and precipitation extremes, fire season length, glacial retreat, permafrost loss and rising sea levels.
We showed that these changes are projected to continue to intensify in the coming decades in response to ongoing global greenhouse gas emissions and resulting global warming.
What does this mean for the future?
The important message of both reports is not that the world has failed (which it has) nor that the consequences of this failure are dire (which they are). The critical message is that the climate crisis will get even worse if we continue with the halfhearted mitigation efforts of the past decade.
Every additional increase in global temperatures will cause more intense and damaging climate extremes. If we continue on our current trajectory, we will reach global warming of 1.5 C around the year 2030, and then 1.6 C four years later, and 1.7 C four years after that. By the mid-century, we will have crossed 2 C and be well on our way to 3 C at the end of the century.
Recall that in Canada, temperatures have increased about twice as fast as the global average. So these global warming averages translate to twice as much warming on average in Canada, and close to three times as much in the Arctic.
The second key takeaway of both reports, however, is that the future is not pre-determined. Increased and sustained climate action can still stabilize global and Canadian temperatures in the second half of this century if we are able to fully decarbonize the global economy and achieve net-zero emissions.
Calls for climate adaptation
Canada’s government has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, even as it has backed off on efforts to achieve our 2030 emissions target. Recent analysis by the Canadian Climate Institute shows that Canada is far off track to meet either target. Current climate policies are not even enough to achieve the 2030 target by the year 2050.
In response to this profound failure, combined with mounting evidence of escalating climate disasters around the world, prominent voices have begun to call for a focus on climate adaptation. For example, Canadian environmental activist David Suzuki has argued for an urgent need to build community resilience against anticipated climate disasters.
But these calls for building resilience must not be framed as an alternative to cutting emissions. We must do both. If we don’t succeed in slowing the pace of climate change and stabilizing global temperatures, we will start to reach the limits of society’s capacity to adapt to climate disasters.
Limiting future damage
A final key message of both the UN and Canadian reports is that climate changes are exceedingly difficult to reverse. Some aspects of the changes humanity is causing — rising sea levels, melting permafrost and glacial retreat — are effectively irreversible.
But it’s not too late to limit future damage. This is the most important message of all: future warming remains primarily driven by future emissions. It remains possible, and critical, to limit peak warming, stabilize global temperatures and avoid the most catastrophic future climate impacts.
Here in Canada this means we must not roll back our near-term climate mitigation ambitions. We must find ways to navigate the current geopolitical and affordability crises while also setting ourselves on a rapid transition to net-zero emissions. This cannot be treated as an aspirational goal — it is an absolute imperative.
H. Damon Matthews receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. He is affiliated with the Future Earth Canada Hub and the Net-Zero Advisory Body.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/09/23/two-new-reports-show-that-canada-needs-to-do-much-more-to-tackle-climate-change/