Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives
With less than two weeks to go before voters head to the polls on Oct. 4, 2026, Brazil is experiencing a presidential election campaign that is much less heated than many would expect given the high-level of polarization in the country.
The latest polling also suggest few shifts in the political landscape, dominated by incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his main right-wing challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of incarcerated former President Jair Bolsonaro.
But making predictions about Brazil’s presidential vote is a tricky business. In Brazil, voting is mandatory for literate citizens between 18 and 70 years of age, and if one presidential candidate doesn’t get to 50%+1 of the valid votes (not counting absentees and blank or invalid votes) in the first round, the field is narrowed to two candidates, who then face a run-off, scheduled for Oct. 25, 2026.
The run-off is a very likely scenario in the current situation. But as a political scientist who has studied Brazilian elections for decades, I don’t think it’s safe at the moment to base analyses on existing second-round simulations, since about 30% of voters are still undecided in the first round, if spontaneous polls are to be trusted. Spontaneous polls ask voters who they would vote for without presenting them a list of candidates, and they historically indicate a number of undecided voters closer to the actual figure.
The average of the last 18 polls conducted through Sept. 22 shows 39.4% support for incumbent President Lula and 33.6% for Flávio Bolsonaro. This is not much different from the latest Quaest poll, released on Sept. 21, which found 37% for Lula and 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
When examined from the perspective of an average percentage, the figures from these 18 polls indicate that 27% of voters are undecided, according to the spontaneous responses. The Quaest poll found a higher figure: 35% undecided. Let’s say, then, that undecided voters fall within the range of 30% to 35%. This is a high degree of indecision so close to the election.
Thus, I’m working on the assumption that this relative stability in the polls — fluctuating within the margin of error — and the high percentage of undecided voters point to a very lackluster campaign. And in fact, there isn’t much activity on the streets; I’m not seeing the number of flags or stickers I did in previous campaigns.
A lackluster online campaign
I have two additional hypotheses to explain this lack of enthusiasm. The first is that neither Lula nor Flávio Bolsonaro are inspiring Brazilians to get out and campaign on the streets. Even within each candidate’s own echo chamber, there appears to be many doubts over their ability to enthuse would-be supporters.
The second is that the 2026 election campaign is playing out mainly through digital platforms. And a campaign that’s mostly online reduces face-to-face interaction and dampens the energy of impromptu moments at rallies. Voters wonder whether what they see on social media is reality or merely what algorithms have filtered for them. Social media has this ability to form crystallized bubbles that stifle debate.
This is clearly evident in the polls when they break down voting intentions by political orientation. Among Lula supporters, 91% choose Lula. And among Bolsonaro supporters, 90% back Flávio Bolsonaro. On the non-Lula left, 78% say they will vote for Lula. On the non-Bolsonaro right, 67% support Flávio Bolsonaro. Those who identify as independent are split. This is what the figures from the Sept. 21 Quaest poll show.
In the same Quaest poll, when asked if their choice for the first round might change, 79% say their decisions are final, while 21% say they may still switch candidates. These 21% who may change their vote from what they are thinking at present suggests that volatility is likely to be high this year, and that many voters will wait until the last minute to decide. This is likely to maintain the atmosphere of uncertainty that has characterized the current presidential campaign right up to the last minute.
The ‘vote for the winner’ hypothesis
But there is an additional piece of data in the latest Quaest poll that could affect this uncertainty. When asked who is likely to win the election, 55% say Lula – far exceeding the percentage of respondents who say they will vote for him. Meanwhile, 30% believe Flávio Bolsonaro will win, roughly inline with current voting intentions.
This discrepancy between voting intention and who voters think will win could be crucial. Historically, there has been a group of voters who tend to favor the winning candidate in the second round. The indications are, at the moment, this may ultimately favor Lula. The serving president may also benefit from pragmatic choices: between the untested Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, the incumbent who is already at the helm and holds few surprises in store.
Flávio Bolsonaro, however, can capitalize on his last name. Despite his legal problems since leaving office in 2023, Jair Bolsonaro remains popular among his right-wing base. In addition, there are some Brazilians who are turned off by the political longevity of Lula, who first became president in 2003.
One thing is certain: this will once again be a close election. And it will likely be decided by independent voters, who are currently still very divided between the two main candidates.
The election results will also be affected by voter alienation. The higher the abstention rate and the number of invalid votes, the greater the impact on the final result.
September or October shocks?
And what about the very likely runoff on Oct. 25? As a political scientist, I always treat second-rounds as a new election, with a short and intense campaign that tends to be more heated than the first round. But I make no predictions about it before knowing the result of the first round of voting.
The reality in Brazil is politics can be volatile. There is a great deal of compromising information at the heart of ongoing investigations, such as the Banco Master case, centering around a banking fraud that has drawn in a lot of high-profile poltiical figures. The outcome of the related crisis at the Federal Supreme Court – which has pitted a Jair Bolsonaro appointed Justice, André Mendonça, against the Lula-backed Alexandre de Moraes – may also influence voters’ choices. Or it may not.
Polling also doesn’t take into account how the events of Jan. 8, 2023, and the entire coup plot that preceded it, may influence voters when it comes down to making a final decision.
If these events – during which pro-Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in the capital and attempted to oust the newly elected Lula – remain fresh in voters’ minds, or if they are brought up again during the campaign, they could also be a deciding factor. Especially since Flávio Bolsonaro is promising amnesty to those convicted, including his father.
The crisis of coalition presidential system
The current field of presidential candidates – 14 in total – also reveals various aspects of the crisis in Brazil’s coalition presidential system – something that began under the Bolsonaro administration. Parliamentary amendments to the federal budget totaling tens of billions of dollars gave members of the Brazilian parliament’s two houses – the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate – the autonomy to channel funds to their constituencies without needing authorization from the executive branch. The result was less incentive to support presidential candidates or join the governing coalition.
This crisis is directly linked to the vote — not just for president, but for the House and the Senate. A new rule governing amendments will depend on congressional approval. And only the popular vote can alter the balance of power that currently grants a legislative majority to a much-criticized group of parties called “centrão,” or “big center.”
The importance of the congressional election
If the vote for the House of Representatives and the Senate maintains the current status quo, it will make it very difficult for the winning presidential candidate to form an effective and responsible coalition between Congress and the federal government — one willing to change the current rules on amendments to help ensure the country’s governability.
Therefore, there is a great deal at stake as Brazilians prepare to vote — from reaffirming democracy to defending governability.
Lula has been accused by his critics of being a poor manager of the serving coalition. But his supporters present him as an experienced politician, and a skilled negotiator who understands the demands of the office of the chief executive, and grasps the political dynamics in Congress.
This is an election that could have a significant impact on the future of democracy and the well-being of Brazilian society. Yet these issues have failed to engage the electorate. And the lackluster campaign only heightens the sense of uncertainty leading into the election.
Sergio Abranches não presta consultoria, trabalha, possui ações ou recebe financiamento de qualquer empresa ou organização que poderia se beneficiar com a publicação deste artigo e não revelou nenhum vínculo relevante além de seu cargo acadêmico.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/09/23/elections-in-brazil-a-subdued-digital-campaign-heightens-uncertainty-about-the-results/