Source: The Conversation – Canada
Can a country change continents? Canada seems set to try.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced an intention to seek some novel form of associate membership in the European Union. It’s no mere flight of fancy, either, as Ursula von der Leyen, president of the EU Commission, has already endorsed the idea.
It’s a proposal that manages to be both absurd and eminently logical, depending on how you frame it. Geographically, Canada remains firmly affixed to North America, sharing a border with its increasingly unpredictable neighbour to the south, the United States.
In other important ways, however, Canada clearly has much more in common in recent months with European countries than the unstable U.S. That’s because in the space of a year, America has gone from Canada’s most important friend and ally on the world stage to the clearest threat to Canadian sovereignty.
By deepening links with other European democracies, Carney clearly hopes to buy Canada a degree of insurance against continuing American intervention and hostility from U.S. President Donald Trump. There’s a logic to the argument.
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Middle powers coming together
In fact, in many ways this proposal is very much in keeping with Canada’s multilateral approach to international politics since the Cold War era. This is a history Carney clearly invoked when he spoke about the need for middle powers to forge their own path together in his landmark speech to Davos earlier in the year.
Canada, then as now, is not a match for the greatest powers in the world. But working with other like-minded states, it can find ways to defend itself and amplify its power. The difference, of course, is that now the U.S. is no longer one of those allies but, instead, Canada’s biggest threat.
That threat cannot be underestimated, either. While observers like myself have been warning of the danger ever since Justin Trudeau’s ill-fated mission of supplication to Mar-A-Lago prompted Trump’s 51st state joke, the scale and severity of the problem has become impossible to ignore.
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The latest trade negotiations have made that clear. From ugly jokes and offensive maps, the Trump administration has proceeded to make more concrete demands of fealty.
Even before taking office, Trump was inventing border drug-trafficking problems for Canada to solve — a grievance the president continues to return to.
More recent trade negotiations included demands that amounted to the surrender of Canadian sovereignty. They included a veto over who Canada trades with internationally, an entrenched dependency on the U.S. for defence procurement and security provision and, incredibly, even an attempt to interfere with official Canadian bilingualism.
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Looking for help elsewhere
Along the way, Canada has seen figures close to Trump pumping up the idea of Alberta’s secession and the U.S. ambassador treat Canadians with utter contempt. Worst of all, Canada has had precious little in the way of support even from Americans who are sympathetic.
The message is clear: Americans have been cowed by a a bullying administration with no respect for Canada or Canadians. If Canada wishes to defend its sovereignty, it must look for help elsewhere. No country is more vulnerable than the one without allies.
That brings us back to a more European-allied Canada.
The European Union is the world’s foremost club of democracies and economic force in the world. When European states can co-operate politically — not always a given — they are a force to rival the other great powers of the world.
Canada also has long ties to Europe, not only cultural connections in the form a shared heritage for many — though far from all — Canadians, but through diplomatic and defence collaboration in numerous international institutions. Those organizations include NATO, the United Nations, the G7, la Francophonie and many others.
As democracies that are facing shared vulnerabilities from increasingly assertive authoritarian regimes, Canada and EU member states have a mutual interest in protecting one another and collaborating to defend democratic values and institutions.
Potential risks, drawbacks
There are many unanswered questions about Canada becoming an associate member of the EU, and some real risks associated with the idea as well. European Union membership is not without its drawbacks, as Brexit clearly demonstrated just a decade ago.
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The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, and while that was an economically problematic decision, it was not without its logical arguments in favour. EU membership remains controversial because pooling sovereignty requires sacrifice: nations trade away unilateral control in exchange for shared, broader gains.
This is not a minor point. The loss of control over decision-making is, in no small measure, what Canada is objecting to in trade negotiations with the U.S. While it’s far too early to know what goes into associate membership, Carney will need to be careful to ensure steps are taken to prevent Canadian populists from finding a new distant target in Brussels.
Harmonizing policy with European allies would also likely become a further barrier to trade with the U.S. While it’s clear Canada can no longer rely on a trusting relationship with its southern neighbour, the two countries will remained joined at the hip, and the U.S. will likely remain Canada’s biggest trading partner as a function not only of geography, but decades of investment and policy.
As much as Canada needs friends, it’s important for the country to proceed in a way that does not blow up its relationship with the U.S.
Asian trade
Finally, Canada must be careful not to lose sight of the fact that millions of Canadians trace their heritage to places far beyond Europe.
The Pacific Rim remains Canada’s largest source of trade outside the U.S., and the democracies of the region are in many ways caught in a situation more analogous to Canada’s own than the countries of the EU.
Japan, South Korea, Australia and Taiwan are, like Canada, caught between U.S. and Chinese influence and must find a way to walk that line. Accordingly, in its search for friends, Canada cannot be too too narrow-minded or historically oriented. Europe is Canada’s past, but the Pacific Rim looms large in its future.
One thing is clear, however. Canada’s prime minister understands that the world has changed; the old normal is not coming back. Canada is in a fight for its existence and is acting accordingly.
Stewart Prest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/09/16/thanks-trump-why-canada-may-become-the-european-unions-first-ever-associate-member/