Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ)
One Nation this week promised to tighten visa rules and cut immigration to “net negative” for three years, in a suite of policies it said would help reduce pressure on housing and essential services. It also vowed to further restrict the ability of migrants to bring family members to Australia.
One Nation says it will preserve the existing Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme and the working holiday maker program.
Instead, the proposal focuses primarily on reducing the number of international students (on visa subclass 500), temporary graduate visa holders (on visa subclass 485) and family members of migrants.
For international education, the proposed cuts are substantial. One Nation wants to reduce the international student population from almost 590,000 now to 350,000. This represents a reduction of about 240,000 over three years.
It also proposes to cut the temporary graduate visa population from about 270,000 now to 40,000. This represents a reduction of about 230,000, or 85%, over three years.
This, combined with various other cuts and restrictions, would aim to reduce the number of temporary migrants in Australia by more than 760,000 over three years.
One Nation policy statement.
So, what would this mean for Australia’s labour market and economy?
Temporary graduate visa holders supply labour
One Nation’s plan to reduce the temporary graduate visa population by about 230,000 would leave the proposed population at less than one-sixth of its current size.
Census data from 2021 show that 88% of temporary graduate visa holders participated in the labour force. These graduates are already embedded across the Australian economy and are not only employed in professional occupations.
This Census data from 2021 show:
- 23.2% worked in professional occupations, including business, human resources and marketing, IT, engineering and science
- 10.9% worked in food and hospitality
- 6% worked in retail
- 14.8% worked as health professionals, carers and aides.
These workers form part of the everyday labour supply on which businesses and essential services depend.
The temporary graduate visa is not simply a pathway for retaining future professionals who have finished studying in Australia.
It also provides workers for restaurants and food businesses, hotels, retail, transport, cleaning, health and aged care and other services.
An 85% reduction would substantially shrink the pool from which employers can recruit.
Indeed, business groups have already flagged concerns with One Nation’s proposal. The Business Council of Australia has said it was
concerned that One Nation’s proposal to cut migration by more than 750,000 people risks holding back economic growth and worsening Australia’s skills shortages.
The Australian Industry Group has said the plan
risks severe economic self harm at a time when we are already bedevilled by significant labour and skills shortages.
Removing such a large group would reduce the supply of workers available to businesses at a time when recruitment remains difficult in many parts of the economy.
The pressure could be particularly acute in regional Australia.
Jobs and Skills Australia’s March 2026 data put the national vacancy fill rate (the percentage of job vacancies that are filled) at 68.2%. Regional employers recorded a fill rate 4.6 percentage points lower than metropolitan employers.
For labour-intensive industries such as hospitality, food services and care, a smaller pool of available workers could make it harder to hire.
It could mean employers have to pay more for labour or reduce business operating hours. They may face higher labour costs or have to put prices up. Some businesses may even be at risk of closing down.
International students are in the labour market too
International students are also an important part of the labour market.
ABS Census data show that 63.6% of student visa holders were employed. International students can work up to 48 hours per fortnight while they are studying.
Food and beverage services was the largest industry of employment, accounting for 23% of employed student visa holders. Other major areas included retail, cleaning, residential care and social assistance.
International students do not simply supply labour. They also spend money on accommodation, food, retail, transport and tourism. This creates jobs for Australians.
Employment prospects are also a significant part of how international students decide where to study.
Research has found graduate employment prospects ranked second among the factors international students considered when choosing a study destination, after quality of education.
A substantial reduction in post-study work opportunities could therefore make Australia less attractive in an increasingly competitive international education market.
In other words, the economic implications of One Nation’s proposal extend beyond the labour market. International education is Australia’s largest services export, generating almost A$55 billion in export income in 2025.
Its contribution extends well beyond universities. This sector also supports economic activity and employment in accommodation, hospitality, retail, tourism, transport and other services. It contributes to Australia’s future skilled workforce and builds longer-term connections with other countries.
International students’ fees also help subsidise the domestic higher education system, support university research and infrastructure.
The question raised by One Nation’s proposal is therefore broader than how many migrants Australia should admit.
It is also about how Australia’s economy functions when a large and diverse group of international students and graduates contributes both demand and labour.
Reducing these populations may reduce migration numbers, but could also weaken demand for Australian goods and services. It would shrink the number of workers available for employers to hire and could deepen labour shortages.
Ly Tran has received funding from the Australian Research Council, DFAT and the Department of Education for research on international students, international education and student mobilities.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/09/15/how-would-one-nations-immigration-plan-affect-the-labour-market-and-economy/