Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ)
Content warning: This article discusses mass death, epidemics, frontier violence, and the structural violence experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
More than two million Indigenous people probably lived in Australia at the time of the British invasion in 1788, according to new research based on genetic, archaeological and environmental evidence.
This figure is much larger than the estimate of 300,000 which has shaped public understanding for the past century. The old estimate, published by anthropologist Alfred Reginald Radcliffe-Brown in 1930, was based largely on observations made after disease, dispossession and violence had already devastated Indigenous communities.
Using three methods that do not depend on colonial-era headcounts, we calculated a median population of 2.22 million people in 1788, with a likely range roughly between 1 and 4 million. Our work is published in Nature Human Behaviour.
The new figure also implies that over 90% of the Indigenous population died in the 70 years after the invasion. It is not simply a revision to a historical statistic. It changes the scale at which Australians must understand terra nullius, and subsequent invasion, survival and recovery.
C.J.A. Bradshaw / Flinders University, CC BY-NC-ND
Why the old estimate was too low
There was no comprehensive census of Indigenous Australians until 1971. Earlier colonial records counted only fragments of the population. They were based on things such as people attending blanket distributions and ration depots, living on missions and reserves, or working on pastoral stations.
Administrative practices also excluded many people of mixed ancestry. Later observers were measuring populations already severely disrupted by colonialism, using incomplete data. The 2021 Census was only the sixth national census to include all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
National Library of Australia via Wikimedia Commons
Europeans began recording detailed observations of Indigenous people in the Sydney region at the very start of British invasion. But disruption began quickly. A major smallpox epidemic struck the region in 1789, within 15 months of the First Fleet’s arrival.
Our related modelling estimated this epidemic killed up to 220,000 Indigenous people in south-eastern Australia. Other smallpox outbreaks occurred in 1826–1838 and 1860–1869. Measles, influenza, tuberculosis and other introduced diseases also killed many.
At the same time, colonial expansion brought direct frontier killings and structural violence. People were removed from Country, procuring food was prevented or criminalised, forced and exploitative labour was common, families were separated, and malnutrition and damaging assimiliation policies took their toll.
The historical record is known to be incomplete. Even so, the Colonial Frontier Massacres database, which documents only incidents meeting strict evidentiary criteria, shows hundreds of such events.
Mitchell Library, State Library of New South Wales (FL3141129)
Three independent ways of looking back
To avoid relying on potentially biased colonial observations, we brought together independent estimates.
One reconstructed long-term population change from more than 5,000 archaeological radiocarbon dates. A second used genetic data to infer effective population size. The third modelled how many non-agricultural people Australian environments could support based on environmental productivity.
The underlying archaeological database and modelling approaches have been published previously. This includes work on Australia’s population history, Aboriginal mitogenomes, and the peopling of Sahul.
Each method has different assumptions and uncertainties. But they produce broadly similar results.
Our analyses produced a median estimate of 2.22 million people, or 0.29 people per square kilometre. That density is modest and falls well within observed densities for Indigenous populations in productive parts of Australia and elsewhere. (And these observations occurred after colonial impacts.)
National Library of Australia, CC BY-NC-ND
A larger population changes how we interpret Australia’s environmental history. Two or three million people managing Country would have sustained cultural burning, resource enhancement and knowledge networks at a scale that low population estimates obscure.
Recent research has traced the emergence of human-managed fire regimes in Australia’s tropical savannahs and in south-eastern Australia extending millennia into the past.
Population loss meant not only lives and communities lost, but a severe disruption of land-management systems built over many thousands of years. Understanding the true scale and sophistication of those practices will inform efforts to restore and support Indigenous-led land management.
A demographic catastrophe
The year with the most complete census information prior to 1971 was 1861. That year, the Indigenous population was estimated between 177,000 and 193,000.
How many people would have had to die for this figure to square with our updated pre-invasion population estimate? Using a demographic model that accounted for population age, we found an average of around 28,200 excess deaths each year for 73 years.
That’s 2.06 million deaths in total, leaving only 7% of the median estimated pre-invasion population by the mid-19th century.
“Excess deaths” means deaths beyond those expected in an otherwise stable population. Our model cannot reliably divide them among the overlapping forces of disease, direct frontier violence, and structural violence.
Nor is 2.06 million a precise body count. The modelled total deaths range from roughly 700,000 to 4.2 million. Even the lowest plausible estimate implies catastrophic loss of life on a continental scale.
Survival, reconciliation and truth-telling
Amid all the death, this story is primarily one of survival.
Indigenous people adapted under extraordinary pressure. They continued to keep and transmit culture, kinship, lore, language and knowledge as well as maintain responsibilities to Country. This shared history forms an important part of Australian identity that Indigenous people share with us today.
Reconciliation and policy must reckon with the depth of this loss. In 2021, 812,728 people identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander in the Census. These numbers are still well short of 2.22 million, showing the scale of the intergenerational trauma that many Indigenous people continue to experience.
Megan Sheppard Brennand / EMM Consulting Pty Ltd.
The current National Agreement on Closing the Gap recognises that Indigenous peoples must share decision-making and help design the policies affecting them. A longer demographic view strengthens that imperative.
Truth-telling begins with all Australians facing the scale of what happened. This is not to assign blame but to create shared understanding of our past. Truth-telling also means recognising the strength of Indigenous cultures and communities that endure.
If you are, or someone you know is, feeling worried or no good, we encourage you to connect with 13YARN on 13 92 76 (24 hours / 7 days) and talk with an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander Crisis Supporter.
The authors acknowledge research collaborators Kirsty Beller (Gujaga Foundation), M. Cody Nitschke (Flinders University), Billy Griffiths (Deakin University), Nicholas Pitt (University of New South Wales), Michael Bird (James Cook University), Raymond Tobler (Australian National University), Ian McNiven (Monash University), Frédérik Saltré (University of Technology Sydney/Australian Museum), Alistair Paterson (University of Western Australia), and Chris Wilson. We acknowledge the sovereign Traditional Owners and custodians (First Nations) of the unceded lands, seas, and skies where we live and work, including Bidiagal in Warrane/Sydney, Dharawal in Kamay/Botany Bay, Dharawal in Woolungah/Wollongong, Kulin Nation in Naarm/Melbourne, Yirrganydji and Gimuy Walubara Yidinji in Gimuy/Cairns, Ngunnawal and Ngambri in Galambary/Canberra, Whadjuk Noongar in Boorloo/Perth, Ngarrindjeri of Murrundi/lower Murray River, Kurangk/Coorong, and eastern Fleurieu Peninsula, Palawa in Nipaluna/Hobart, Lutruwitra/Tasmania, Kaurna in Tarndanya/Adelaide, and Peramangk in Bukatila/Mount Lofty Ranges.
Corey J. A. Bradshaw receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Alan N Williams is an associate director and a Technical Lead, Aboriginal heritage for EMM Consulting Pty Ltd, an international employee owned company specialising in environmental investigation and assessment
Lynette Russell receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Sean Ulm receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Shane Ingrey receives funding from the Australian Research Council and is a member of the La Perouse Aboriginal Community and the Gujaga Foundation.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/09/15/more-than-2-million-indigenous-people-lived-in-australia-in-1788-new-research/