Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ)
In 1951, Australia and the United States signed the ANZUS Treaty, declaring “publicly and formally their sense of unity, so that no potential aggressor could be under the illusion that any of them stand alone”.
Seventy-five years later, polling suggests Australians are no longer so confident in their sense of unity — but they still aren’t willing to stand alone.
The past 18 months have seen a new US administration castigate American allies for “freeloading” on US security guarantees, and being “very unhelpful” in the Iran war.
Australia has faced US criticism over issues ranging from Iran to beef imports. It was hit with an increased 12.5% tariff rate in July.
Yet our polling at the United States Studies Centre shows just 15% of Australians now believe Australia should withdraw from its alliance with the US.
Compare that to three years ago: in 2023, 37% of Australians said they would agree with ending the alliance if Donald Trump were re-elected for a second term as US president.
Our findings show Australians are increasingly willing to hold onto their US alliance as it marks its 75th anniversary, even after another year of uncertainty and discord. This suggests they feel practical alternatives to such an embedded security relationship remain elusive.
An unhappy marriage
Public opinion has seen huge shifts in confidence in the United States and trust in the security of the alliance since the start of Trump’s second presidential term.
Every year, the United States Studies Centre polls more than 1,000 people in each of the four countries making up the Quad partnership — Australia, the United States, Japan and India — on their views of the United States, alliances, and foreign policy.
This year, only 16% of Australians said Trump’s second term as US president has been good for Australia. Less than a third of Australians think the Australian government has properly explained why Australia even needs its alliance with the US.
Concern in all four countries about US domestic politics runs deep. Almost three-quarters of Australians, over 80% of Americans, and strong majorities of Japanese and Indian respondents now say they are concerned about the future of US democracy.
Where Australians were once convinced of their “sense of unity” with the US, they are now uncertain. In 2023, 55% of Australians said it was “very likely” the US would come to Australia’s aid if Australia were attacked by China. Now, just 29% feel so sure.
In 2024, Australians were twice as likely to see the US as helpful in Asia compared to China. Two years later, Australians now see China and the US as equally helpful in the region. Australians are also the only Quad public more likely to see China as an economic partner than a danger.
Views have stabilised
The biggest swings in public opinion occurred in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s re-election. But compared to 2025, polling in 2026 has largely stabilised, suggesting members of the Quad have now largely made up their minds on what the “new Golden Age of American greatness” means for them.
The number of people in Australia, Japan and India who say their country’s partnership with the United States makes their country more secure is statistically unchanged from last year. This is despite having dropped 14 points between 2024 and 2025 among Australians. It seems a year of geopolitical turmoil has not shifted the dial on this key question of alliance security.
Nevertheless, it is notable that less than half of Australians feel Australia’s most consequential security relationship makes Australia more secure — a 21-point drop from 2022, when two-thirds of Australians agreed.
For their part, Americans continue to believe alliances make the United States more secure. They are ten times more likely to say so about Australia and three times as likely to say so about NATO than not. A majority of both Republican and Democrat voters agree.
No Plan B
Despite their concerns, only 15% of Australians want to withdraw from the Australia-US alliance. Half of respondents say Australia needs its alliance with the US more than ever, and even that there are no circumstances in which Australia should end the alliance. Two-thirds of Australians agree the United States is an ally.
Australians are not opposed to exploring other security arrangements. Half a year on from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech in which he called for middle powers to “act together”, three in four Australians agree with strengthening security relationships with other middle powers.
But when considered against their evident hesitancy to walk away from the alliance, our polling suggests Australians see such proposals as a complement, if not an insurance policy, to the existing alliance with the United States, rather than as a wholesale replacement.
Samuel Garrett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/08/30/after-75-years-of-our-alliance-with-the-us-most-australians-still-cant-see-a-better-option/