Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ)
The three new federal polls have the total vote for One Nation and the Coalition at 46% in YouGov (down one), 48% in Morgan (up 0.5) and 49% in Resolve (steady). The Resolve poll gives Labor encouragement by suggesting their May budget changes are becoming more popular.
A Victorian DemosAU poll gave the Coalition a 55–45 two-party lead over Labor, with the state election on November 28. Victoria’s parliament has finally passed legislation scrapping group ticket voting.
Federal Resolve poll
A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted August 9–15 from a sample of 2,256, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (steady since the early July Resolve poll), One Nation 26% (steady), the Coalition 23% (steady), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 7% (up one) and others 4% (down one).
No two-party estimate was provided with One Nation ahead of the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead the Coalition by under 52–48.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down two points to -17 (53% gave him a poor rating and 36% a good rating). Angus Taylor’s was up one point to +8 (40% good, 33% poor). Pauline Hanson’s was +5 (46% good, 41% poor).
In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 32% (down one), Hanson 26% (up one) and Taylor 19% (down two).
By 35–21, respondents supported the May budget changes to capital gains tax (35–24 in July, 31–31 in June), and by 35–20 they supported the changes to negative gearing (37–23 in July, 33–26 in June). By 60–10, they supported bringing house prices down (61–9 in July, 54–11 in June).
Cost of living was rated the most important issue by 36% (down nine), its lowest level since February 2023. One Nation has been added to responses for issue questions, but not the Greens, so there are now two right options (Coalition and One Nation), but only one left option (Labor) on issue questions.
On immigration, 57% said it was too high (up eight since September 2025), 28% about right and just 4% too low. By 54–26, respondents thought the federal government was handling immigration in an unplanned and unmanaged way. By 56–14, they supported stricter visa controls.
On preferred Liberal leader, 30% selected Taylor, 10% Andrew Hastie and 5% Tim Wilson, with 56% undecided.
YouGov poll
A national YouGov poll for News24 (formerly Sky News), conducted August 4–10 from a sample about 1,500, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (steady since the late July YouGov poll), One Nation 24% (down one), the Coalition 22% (steady), the Greens 12% (down one), independents 5% (down one) and others 9% (up three).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by an unchanged 56–44. They led the Coalition by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition.
Albanese’s net approval dropped three points to -21 (57% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied). Taylor’s net approval improved five points to -11 (46% dissatisfied, 35% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 42–38 (43–37 previously). He led Hanson by 51–38 (52–37 previously).
Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted August 3–9 from a sample of 1,647, gave One Nation 26% of the primary vote (up two since the late July Morgan poll), Labor 25.5% (down two), the Coalition 22% (down 1.5), the Greens 15.5% (up 0.5) and all Others 11% (up one).
By respondent preferences, Labor led both One Nation and the Coalition by 53–47, a one-point gain for One Nation against Labor and a one-point gain for Labor against the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.
Victorian DemosAU poll
The Victorian state election is on November 28. A DemosAU and Premier National poll, conducted August 6–11 from a sample of 1,007, gave the Coalition 32% of the primary vote (up two since the early June DemosAU poll), Labor 23% (up two), One Nation 22% (down one), the Greens 13% (down two) and all Others 10% (down one).
After preferences, the Coalition held an unchanged 55–45 lead over Labor.
Labor Premier Ben Carroll’s net positive rating was -16 (37% negative, 21% positive). It’s a 23-point improvement on former premier Jacinta Allan. Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s was up one point to +11 (35% positive, 24% negative). One Nation leader Warren Pickering’s was -19 (38% negative, 19% positive). Greens leader Ellen Sandell’s was -16 (32% negative, 16% positive).
Wilson led Carroll as preferred premier by 43–34 (47–28 against Allan in June).
Group voting tickets finally scrapped
Last Tuesday, legislation to scrap the discredited group voting ticket system for Victoria’s upper house passed that chamber after passing the lower house in the July 28–30 parliamentary sitting. I wrote about these changes on July 29, and analyst Kevin Bonham followed their passage through parliament.
The electoral commission had said the changes needed to pass parliament “by August” to be implemented at the November 28 election. Victoria is the last Australian jurisdiction to scrap group voting tickets, with Western Australia’s scrapping implemented at the March 2025 election.
Nigel Farage wins UK byelection he caused easily
United Kingdom populist right Reform leader, Nigel Farage, had resigned as Member for Clacton on July 7 to recontest it.
At last Thursday’s Clacton byelection, Farage won 63.3%, with 26.9% for joke candidate Count Binface. No other well-known party contested Clacton. This was a 17.1-point swing to Farage since the 2024 general election. I covered this byelection for The Poll Bludger.
This article also covers three Canadian federal byelections on August 31 and October elections in Brazil and Israel.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/08/16/resolve-poll-suggests-more-voters-support-labors-federal-budget-changes-than-oppose-them/