Source: The Conversation – Africa (2)
Zambia’s election, scheduled for 13 August, has shaped up into a battle between two alliances. The ruling United Party for National Development alliance is backed by 15 smaller parties. The Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance is headed by presidential newcomer Brian Mundubile and his running mate, Makebi Zulu.
The Tonse-Pamodzi alliance includes a group of smaller political parties without parliamentary representation, and many of the remaining structures of the Patriotic Front. Mundubile was formerly in the Patriotic Front, which was voted out in 2021. Alliances cannot register, so they have to run as a party but are backed by an informal alliance.
Almost every election in Zambian history includes negotiations on an opposition electoral coalition, but few survive to fight the elections. In 2026, the opposition cohered late in the face of what they say is significant state interference. They hope to take the election despite facing these challenges.
Having worked extensively across multiple Zambian elections and based on the research I have done as part of the Zambia Elections Research Network, my view is that the election will do two things:
-
test the strength of the Tonse-Pamodzi’s local campaign and remaining Patriotic Front loyalties
-
be a referendum on the United Party for National Development’s policies.
The election has turned into a more competitive race than most analysts had expected. With 14 candidates standing for the presidency, there are few recognisable party names. And for the first time in 30 years there isn’t a single former ruling party represented on the ballot.
Mundubile – and the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity he’s heading – face a challenge of trying to sell themselves to Zambians in an extremely short period without the party labels or name recognition of previous contenders. His candidature on this new party was only announced in May.
The best performance of a newcomer candidate in Zambia’s history was in 2001, when the founder of the newly established United Party for National Development, Anderson Mazoka, faced down the Movement for Multiparty Democracy’s Levy Mwanawasa, who won the election with just 29% of the vote to Mazoka’s 27%.
The biggest factor playing on voters’ minds is the economy. While our survey conducted in late 2025 suggests that many Zambians are quite happy with many of the government’s flagship policies, the high cost of living and people’s expectations of the economy will be a key election issue.
It’s the economy …
When Hakainde Hichilema and the United Party for National Development won in 2021, he found the cupboard bare.
In November 2020 Zambia became the first African COVID-era debt default following years of unsustainable borrowing by the Patriotic Front government, which had run the country since 2011.
When Hichilema took over there was no clarity even on the extent of the debt. This was partly as a result of the contracting of debt at ministerial level and the broader weakening of institutions and oversight mechanisms.
He set about returning technocrats to the Ministry of Finance and the Treasury. A debt restructuring process was completed in June 2024. This cut over US$900 million from the total debt burden and spread future payments over a much longer period.
Zambia’s default status was officially lifted in November 2025, when ratings agency S&P Global raised its long- and short-term foreign-currency credit ratings with a stable outlook. Other economic wins included:
-
Zambia’s kwacha emerging as the best performing currency in the world in 2025
-
GDP growth forecast of over 4% in 2026
-
a dramatic drop in inflation from 24.6% ahead of the last election in 2021, to just 6.5% by June 2026. This was the lowest rate since February 2018.
The restructuring deal is not without its critics. Nevertheless, five years after hitting rock bottom, Zambia is once again seen as a destination for global investment.
The Zambia Elections Research Network ran a survey in Zambia in late 2025 in which respondents ranked government’s performance on many of its key policies positively. The policies included cash for work programmes, the expansion of the constituency development fund and the introduction of free education. The survey was a nationally representative telephonic survey of 1,497 respondents.
But the primary complaint of many in Zambia is that the cost of living is still too high. And the changes at the macroeconomic level are yet to trickle down to household level.
The cost of a basic needs basket in Zambia increased by 43% between July 2021 and July 2026. But salaries have not kept up, according to the Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection, which publishes a monthly cost of living bulletin.
Governance and legislation
The government’s achievements on deepening Zambia’s democracy and cleaning up corruption have been mixed.
The United Party for National Development government pursued an anti-corruption campaign. Many senior government officials were charged for corruption. Some were imprisoned. But none of the companies that took part in corrupt activities were charged. And few of the corruption scandals under the United Party for National Development administration have been pursued.
Hopes of progressive legal changes were raised in 2021 when the administration repealed the law on defamation of the president and finally brought in the Access to Information Act. But the overall record is much more mixed.
In 2025, the government introduced the contentious Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Act, No. 7 (commonly known as “Bill 7”). But the change failed to meaningfully reform Zambia’s long-debated centralised constitution. Instead it nearly doubled the number of seats in parliament. It added 40 proportional representation seats without adequately specifying the mechanisms by which the elections would work.
In the final days before Parliament closed – and just three months ahead of the elections – the government pushed a massive 74 bills through parliament. These included crucial bills that would govern how the election was run. This “legislative overloading” reduced the already diminished oversight role of Parliament.
Opposition parties claim that state institutions were used to prevent them registering for the 2026 elections. It has been alleged that the Registrar of Societies – the body that governs political parties – changed the names of their office bearers, or changed their status from a political party to a church, or in some cases changed party names entirely. They argue that this state interference was the primary reason why for the first time in 30 years there isn’t a single former ruling party on the ballot.
The ruling party has also proven increasingly intolerant of dissent. Since 2021, several journalists and opposition leaders have been arrested, and no opposition rallies were approved to be held for five years. A key opposition leader was sentenced to imprisonment with hard labour for the defamation of the president. This has had a chilling effect on the opposition and civil society.
The battle of the alliances
Having been the leader of the opposition in Parliament since 2021 and the government chief whip from 2019 to 2021, Mundubile has a profile among those who watch politics in Lusaka. Relying on remaining Patriotic Front structures and sympathies in the party’s former heartlands, his alliance has run an impressive campaign with huge rallies across much of the country.
His campaign has done extremely well, despite having few resources, and it appears that he is gaining significant ground. While he has a considered manifesto, much of his campaign has tried to draw on remaining sympathies for the late former president Edgar Lungu, and he has pledged to “rule just like Lungu did”. Many of his promises on the campaign trail seem to pledge a return to the kind of decentralised patronage politics of the Lungu era.
For its part, the ruling United Party for National Development has put up a gruelling, if last-minute, campaign, and the president has been holding mass rallies across the country while also using his position to announce the opening of new development projects. Hichilema has also spent much of that time speaking off the cuff and attacking former party insiders and MPs for not supporting his constitutional reforms.
In a context where it appears that there was a deliberate attempt by state institutions to keep recognisable parties off the ballot, this election will be a test of the capacity of the Tonse-Pamodzi campaign, the remaining strength of Patriotic Front loyalties and a referendum on the United Party for National Development’s policies. Either way, the country is likely to have a much stronger opposition to contend with after the 2026 polls.
Nicole Beardsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/08/10/zambia-votes-whos-who-and-what-issues-are-shaping-the-elections/