Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ)
International students have become a flashpoint in immigration and education debates in recent years.
Since international student numbers surged after the pandemic lockdowns, they have been blamed for housing pressures in some city areas. And universities have been accused of “cashing in” on the high fees they can charge students from overseas.
Since late 2023, the federal government has made repeated moves to cut overall numbers.
The latest example is the decision to freeze new international students at 295,000 in 2027. Student visa fees were also just increased by A$500 to $2,500, as of July 1.
Education Minister Jason Clare says international student numbers must be sustainable and in the “national interest”.
Meanwhile, migration continues to be a major political issue, and the federal government has been eager to demonstrate its control over the area.
But the public debate can obscure a more complicated reality. The relationship between international students and population growth is easily misunderstood.
A huge growth in population?
One of the main ways we think about population growth is through “net overseas migration”.
This is calculated by adding migrants and Australian citizens coming in and subtracting migrants and Australian citizens going out of Australia.
During COVID, our net overseas migration declined with the closure of international borders. After borders reopened, it rebounded to record levels.
The federal government has since attempted to bring this number below 300,000 per year. It was as high as 556,000 in late 2023.
Net overseas migration counts individuals who change their usual country of residence. In Australia, this is someone who spends at least 12 months in one country within any 16-month period.
Temporary migrants, such as international students, or working holiday-makers who stay longer than one year are included in this definition.
Since 2012, the difference between migration departures and arrivals was a cumulative increase of about 3.4 million people. In our analysis of Australia Bureau of Statistics data, international students contributed about 1.25 million, or 36% of this growth.
Looking at the numbers again
This sounds huge, and can easily feed into perceptions international student numbers are “booming”.
But other data from the Department of Home Affairs shows the number of international students physically present in Australia has only increased by 265,000 between March 2012 and March 2026.
In fact, the most recent data shows the total number of international students living in Australia is slightly lower than before the pandemic.
The reason is net overseas migration counts the type of visa someone holds at the time of their arrival to or departure from Australia.
It doesn’t capture other visa changes that might happen after they arrive, such as moving from a student to a skilled worker visa.
So it means some “students” are being counted in the tally on the way into the country, but not reclassified if they move into another visa category.
So how many students are there?
International students have been an important part of the post-pandemic rise in net overseas migration.
But the student-visa component of net overseas migration is not a measure of how much long-term population growth has been caused by international students.
It records one event in a migration system in which people may change visas, obtain permanent residence, leave Australia or be replaced by migrants arriving through other programs.
Net overseas migration figures are influenced by a complex mixture of factors. Fewer people leaving, or staying longer than expected, can keep net overseas migration elevated.
For example, many international students transition to temporary graduate visas following study, which can prolong their stay.
How many students are coming in?
The federal government uses “national planning levels” to manage how many international student visas are granted each year.
Universities and vocational education providers (including TAFEs and private colleges) are then given an allocation for new international students.
The government says “international student commencements are on track to be below the [levels] for both 2026 and 2027”.
How does this impact universities?
Universities are often seen as the main cause of high international student numbers.
Universities receive the highest amount of income from international students (because of the fees they can charge), and this revenue is concentrated in some universities.
In 2024, the University of Sydney, University of New South Wales, University of Melbourne, Monash University and University of Queensland had about 35% of international student enrolments. They also had almost 50% of university international student revenue.
But more than 50% of international student enrolments are actually in private providers. This includes higher education and vocational colleges, along with students in English language courses.
These figures highlight how international education is not a single sector with uniform interests. International student enrolments are spread much more broadly across the sector than revenue. This further complicates the debate.
What now?
Under currently proposed legislation, the newly formed Australian Tertiary Education Commission will have responsibility for allocating international student places. This promises to be a tough job.
The method for allocating places will have a very big impact on the distribution of resources across the tertiary education sector, though the total number of places available will still be set by the government.
We don’t yet have any details on the method it will use or how the scheme will be devised.
But as the next major step in managing Australia’s international student numbers, the challenge will be ensuring decisions are grounded in evidence and informed by a nuanced understanding of the sector.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/07/21/what-boom-in-international-students-the-total-number-living-in-australia-is-lower-than-before-the-pandemic/