Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ)
After months of speculation, Sir Keir Starmer has resigned as British prime minister. The favourite to replace him is new Labour MP Andy Burnham, who had a landmark win in the Makerfield byelection on June 18.
Burnham’s win – in which he staved off a threat from far-right party Reform UK – has massive implications for the UK government. But are there also lessons for the Albanese government in handling One Nation?
Read more: Andy Burnham is known as the ‘king of the north’. Could he become the UK’s next prime minister? In Australia and the United Kingdom, establishment parties are losing support to populist radical right challengers such as One Nation and Reform.
Both challenger parties have seen significant success in recent byelections and sub-national elections. One Nation had a landmark result in the Farrer byelection, while Reform now has six seats in the House of Commons. In recent state elections in Australia and local council elections in the UK, One Nation and Reform respectively have gained electoral ground.
One Nation gained four lower house seats and three upper house seats in the South Australian election in March. In the UK, Reform gained 1,452 councillors in the May local elections. Not only did Reform make such significant gains in May, it was Labour’s worst defeat in local elections on record, losing almost 1,500 councillor seats across the country.
This makes the result in Makerfield more remarkable. Here, Burnham (who had been blocked from standing in the February byelection of Gorton and Denton, a seat in Greater Manchester) consolidated Labour’s position. Labour’s vote in Makerfield increased by 9.6% to 54.8% – in other words, the former mayor of Greater Manchester managed to buck the trend.
Despite byelections tending to be of little predictive value in forecasting regular election results, a beleaguered UK Labour party has latched onto Burnham’s success as a possible recipe for defeating Reform. While Labour holds a massive parliamentary majority, its 2024 victory was built on 33.7% of votes – a record low for a governing majority.
This means much of Labour’s caucus has thin majorities – heightening internal anxieties about Reform’s consistent polling lead. The Burnham formula Burnham’s formula for success in Makerfield was partially due to his particular qualities as a candidate.
He has been a nationally significant politician for three decades, while maintaining local roots. His performance as the first mayor of Greater Manchester (which takes in Makerfield) has been lauded. Burnham also offered voters an unusual proposition, essentially telling them to vote him in as Labour MP so as to kick out a Labour prime minister.
With Starmer recording the lowest personal satisfaction rating since 1979, this likely proved an attractive message. Starmer’s unpopularity allowed Burnham to position himself as an outsider/insurgent candidate promising change, in an almost populist fashion.
That said, as he has moved closer to Number 10, Burnham’s own personal approval ratings have drifted into the red (though from a significantly higher ceiling). Aside from his local roots and relative popularity, Burnham’s approach to governing and policy also offers hope to nervous Labour MPs looking to turn around the ailing government’s fortunes.
In fact, hope was a key platform on which Burnham campaigned, and it clearly resonates with many British voters. First, Burnham promises to unite the Labour Party. While Starmer took a centrist approach that marginalised the ideologically progressive factions of the party, Burnham is likely to introduce a more broadly consultative and collegial leadership style.
While Burnham’s agenda is not fleshed out, it is expected to take Labour decisively to the left on policy issues such as public control of transport, utilities and housing. Burnham has often been labelled ideologically flexible and as valuing salesmanship above policy conviction.
Given the strictures of the party’s narrow 2024 manifesto and fiscal rules, this flexibility may prove an advantage. Much of Burnham’s agenda and critiques of Westminster politics is detailed in his coauthored book Head North.
The book is supportive of democratic reforms, including a written constitution, proportional representation, giving more powers to regional governments, and replacing the House of Lords with a directly elected alternative. Burnham’s solution to democratic disenchantment could be summarised as seeking to move the UK in an Australian direction.
Bloc politics The comparison with Australia also encompasses Labo(u)r traditions. Unlike Starmer, Burnham is considered to have a more organic and instinctive relationship with the labour movement, which bears a resemblance to Albanese’s embeddedness.
Where Starmer has struggled internally, Albanese has effectively maintained party discipline and support. Both Albanese and Burnham openly discuss their Labo(u)r character. Burnham invokes Everton Football Club, the Labour Party and the Catholic Church as shaping his worldview.
This is strikingly similar to Albanese’s “three great faiths”: the Catholic Church, the Australian Labor Party and the South Sydney Rabbitohs. For both Albanese and Burnham, labour politics is deeply personal and organic. Burnham’s victory presents a roadblock for Reform.
However, it also suggests a consolidation of UK politics into left and right blocs, despite shifts away from establishment parties. Green and Liberal Democrat vote totals declined in Makerfield, while Burnham surged. Likewise, the modest Conservative vote collapsed – with Reform’s total marginally increasing, and far-right party Restore claiming 6.8%.
This suggests that a hurdle for Reform going forward is right-wing vote splitting driven by Restore and its more extreme positioning on issues of immigration and culture. Bloc politics is also a possibility in Australia.
One Nation has consolidated radical and far-right votes. However, the party has a history of poor discipline with fallings-out between Hanson and other key figures. Potential fractures could see a similar dynamic emerge on the Australian right as occurred in Makerfield.
The left has traditionally had higher rates of preference exchange in Australia.
Instead of cleaving to the centre, the Makerfield lesson for the Labor Party might be that the ticket to electoral success is to reconnect with traditional Labo(u)r values such as improved rights for workers, a strong welfare state and a commitment to fairness and equality.
Emily Foley receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Pat Leslie has received funding from the Australian Research Council
Josh Sunman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.