Source: The Conversation – UK
There has been unrest across Turkey after an appeals court annulled the results of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) 2023 leadership election, deposing the popular winner Özgür Özel. Özel’s removal, based on the the court’s decision that the CHP’s 38th congress was void from the beginning, overturning an earlier court finding rejecting allegations of electoral irregularities, has left the CHP with a 77-year-old party veteran, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as interim leader.
Kılıçdaroğlu has previously led the party to five election losses – including the 2023 presidential election in which he was defeated by Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, by about five percentage points.
This latest political crisis to rock Turkey fits into a broader pattern of democratic backsliding and the systemic weakening of the opposition under the rule of Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). Over the years, AKP governments have undermined the justice system, stifled press freedom and curtailed human rights in Turkey.
The next presidential and parliamentary elections are not scheduled until 2028, and Erdoğan – who will be 74 – would be ineligible to run at that stage under constitutional term limits. After completing three terms as Turkey’s prime minister between 2003 and 2014, he became the country’s first popularly elected president in 2014.
He was then re-elected in both 2018 and 2023 – the maximum number of terms allowed under Turkey’s constitution. While in office, Erdoğan has significantly strengthened the power of the presidency. Following a constitutional referendum in 2017, the Turkish political system changed from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency.
This gave the president executive powers, including the power to initiate or amend laws, to ratify treaties, to appoint and dismiss vice-presidents, ministers and high-ranking public executives, and to decide on the use of Turkish Armed Forces.
US-based pro-democracy group Freedom House criticised the move, saying that Erdoğan and his AK Party were now able to “assert partisan control over the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK), the judiciary, national policy and the media”.
After two decades of dominating Turkish politics, Erdoğan’s position was challenged during the 2023 presidential election. Despite widespread expectation that Kılıçdaroğlu would win, the first round was so close that the election went to a run-off vote, which Erdogan won with 52.2%.
The following year, the CHP won a landslide victory in Turkey’s local elections, controlling the major cities (Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, and Bursa). While Erdoğan has sweeping powers at the national level, directly elected mayors still have considerable influence at the local level.
Despite Erdoğan’s energetic campaigning in Istanbul’s mayoral race on behalf of the AKP candidate (a city in which he himself was mayor from 1994 to ‘98 – the CHP’s Ekrem Imamoğlu defeated the AKP challenger.
The 2024 local elections marked the CHP’s greatest success in 21 years. The opposition appeared united, energised and electable.
In the aftermath, party leader Özel praised the voters’ decision to change Turkish politics, commenting that: “They [voters] want to open the door to a new political climate in our country.” But his initial optimism was soon tested by events.
Crackdown on opposition In the wake of those elections, Erdoğan launched a crackdown against his opponents – down to the level of provincial mayors and local officials – by prosecution and prison sentences. The aim appears to have been to pre-emptively neutralise emerging challengers who show signs of building a popular following, before they translate opposition into a threat to the president.
Imamoğlu, a popular mayor of Istanbul, was arrested in March 2025 – on the same day he was nominated as the CHP’s presidential candidate for 2028. He is now in custody facing corruption charges, with prosecutors seeking a prison sentence of up to 2,352 years.
The charges against Imamoğlu brought thousands of protesters on to the streets and university campuses in Istanbul. There was also significant international concern.
Human Rights Watch’s deputy Europe and Central Asia director, Benjamin Ward, said: “Looking at these cases as a whole, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that prosecutors are trying to remove Imamoğlu from politics and discredit his party in ways that undermine democracy.” Human Rights Watch called Imamoğlu’s trial part of a broad strategy to “weaponise the criminal justice system” against the CHP.
A further 20 CHP mayors have been detained on charges relating to alleged corruption, bribery and terrorism-related offences. Commenting on the crackdown, Freedom House said Erdoğan’s government had systematically used institutional tools to weaken or co-opt political rivals.
This is “limiting the opposition’s ability to build voter support and gain power through elections”. Targeting popular opponents Since being elected party leader in November 2023 after Kılıçdaroğlu’s defeat in that year’s presidential election, Özel has been leading the CHP’s regeneration.
But after Imamoğlu’s arrest, the opposition faced increased institutional obstacles. Özel told The Guardian newspaper in April 2025 that Imamoğlu’s arrest was “a political trial” – denying the government’s claim that the charges against the Istanbul mayor weren’t politically motivated.
As the rising star of Turkey’s opposition, Özel has accused Erdoğan’s AKP of pursuing an agenda to “eliminate its rivals”. And the more he directly challenged Erdoğan and gained popularity, the more Özel became a target.
This episode has followed a familiar pattern: a rising figure is identified, a legal case – alleging corruption, terrorism or procedural irregularity – is brought against them, and they are effectively removed from the political landscape. In a similar vein, the reinstatement of Kılıçdaroğlu appears to be a tactic of sabotage.
Compared with Imamoğlu’s established following and Özel’s rising popularity, Kılıçdaroğlu is seen by many people in Turkey as yesteryear’s man, having led the party to several electoral defeats between 2010 and 2023.
However, from Erdoğan’s perspective, Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership is more manageable – and an internally divided CHP will weaken the opposition. Erdoğan can only run for president again if he calls early elections before 2028 (this is allowed under Turkey’s constitution) – or changes the constitution to remove the term limits.
But his ruling coalition currently lacks the votes for either. Like many other countries at present, Turkey has travelled a certain distance down the road to autocracy – but it’s not fully there yet.
The gap is closing, though – and the removal of Özel is a desperate gambit by a leader running out of constitutional options.
Ayla Göl received funding from British Academy/Leverhulme Small Research Grant 2023/24 scheme.
Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/06/01/turkish-democracy-on-trial-how-erdogans-rule-has-undermined-justice-and-weakened-his-rivals/