Source: Radio New Zealand
National would bring 39 MPs into Parliament under the new poll results, with 15 MPs from NZ First and eight from ACT. File photo. VNP / Daniela Maoate-Cox
National’s partners ACT and New Zealand First have taken a tumble in support in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, but the coalition bloc is still holding its lead.
Under the results, released on Tuesday, the government bloc would receive 62 seats, down three since April, compared to the opposition bloc on 58, up three.
Labour remained the most popular party on 31.9 percent, but took a sizeable knock since the last survey, dropping 1.5 points.
National edged up 0.2 points to hit 30 percent. New Zealand First was down 1.9 points to 11.7 percent.
The Green Party was in fourth spot on 9.7 percent, also down 1.9 points, while ACT took the biggest hit, down 2.5 points to 6.5 percent.
Te Pāti Māori came in at 4.1 percent, up 1.5 points.
On those numbers, National would bring 39 MPs into Parliament. They would be joined by 15 MPs from New Zealand First and eight from ACT, to make a 62-strong coalition.
Labour would pick up 41 MPs but would not have a pathway to power, even with the 12 Green MPs and five from Te Pāti Māori.
On the preferred prime minister measure, National’s Christopher Luxon retook the lead, climbing 1 point to 21.5 percent. Labour’s Chris Hipkins dropped 2.7 points to 19 percent.
New Zealand First’s Winston Peters is in third spot, on 11.6 percent, down 0.5 points.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 03 May and Thursday 07 May 2026. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 914. There were 49 (4.9 percent) undecided voters and 37 (3.7 percent) who refused the vote question.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand