Source: Radio New Zealand
A car carried by floodwaters landed on top of a fence after Monday’s torrential rain in Wellington. RNZ / Mark Papalii
A scientist says it’s challenging to predict localised small-scale events which develop very quickly.
Unexpectedly severe weather and flooding in Wellington raised questions about how such weather events can be forecast with some precision.
Despite warnings of heavy rain, the intensity and exact location of the storms weren’t predicted.
Wellington, Lower Hutt and Wairarapa remain under a state of emergency on Wednesday morning.
Flooding outside Duckworth Lewis guesthouse in Wellington. RNZ / Rachel Helyer-Donaldson
The search is resuming for NZ Post employee Philip Sutton who has been missing since Monday after floodwaters surged through a studio he was staying at.
Another man, Barnaby Bocock has told RNZ he and his family were “lucky not to die” when “crazy loud, crazy fast” water rose with dizzying speed in their Ōwhiro Bay home.
Earth Sciences principal Chris Brandolino said there would be new tools that could be developed for more localised forecasting once his organisation and MetService joined forces.
At present it was very challenging and there were “limitations” in what could be predicted.
Broad scale events such as a big low bringing wind and rain could be modelled several days in advance.
However, thunderstorms and localised rain were very hard to forecast because they affected smaller areas and could develop quickly.
“There are some tools that we’re looking to develop in conjunction with MetService as we all come together as one big whānau.”
These included nowcasting systems which covered data for three to six-hour periods.
“It’s not a silver bullet but it’s certainly a tool in the tool chest that can be leveraged.”
Radar data could also be used for modelling, Brandolino said.
Once the two agencies combined it would provide a superior “direction of travel …it will take come time.”
“We will develop better tools to better understand and put us in a better position to pick these things up … it’s impact-based forecasting, the flooding, the landslips, things of that nature.
“So it’s a whole programme of work that needs to be done and we’re looking to do it and looking forward to doing it.”
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
