Source: Radio New Zealand
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be juggling disappointment and elation when announcing his election-year Cabinet reshuffle on Thursday. RNZ / Nathan Mckinnon
Analysis: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be juggling disappointment and elation when announcing his election-year Cabinet reshuffle on Thursday.
With senior minister Judith Collins set to become president of the Law Commission in the middle of the year, and Shane Reti also retiring from politics at the election, Luxon has a number of portfolios up for redistribution.
Collins currently holds minister of Defence, the Public Service, the spy agencies, digitising government, and space – as well as the Attorney-General, the government’s top lawyer.
Judith Collins. VNP/Louis Collins
Reti, who was on the receiving end of a big demotion in Luxon’s reshuffle at the start of last year losing health, still holds the portfolios of Universities, Science and Technology, Pacific Peoples and Statistics.
With both Collins and Reti in Cabinet, which is currently 20 ministers, it would make room for two elevations to the top table.
Shane Reti. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Chris Penk, minister for building and construction, veterans, small business, and associate defence minister has long been tipped to take over from Collins in the defence role.
Penk is himself a veteran and knows the portfolio well and is currently a minister outside of cabinet.
Asked by RNZ earlier this month if he wanted the job he refused to say yes or no, instead saying that was a decision for others to make.
Chris Penk. RNZ / Nathan McKinnon
Another possible contender to move inside cabinet is Minister for South Island, youth, hunting and fishing and associate transport, James Meager.
The former Beehive staffer is one of National’s rising stars and has the benefit of rural South Island roots, which would help bring some geographical diversity to the table.
James Meager. RNZ / Nathan McKinnon
Luxon’s reshuffle will only affect National ministers as the coalition agreements with Act and New Zealand First make any other changes too difficult.
For that reason, despite Brooke van Velden last week announcing her intention to retire at the election, she will keep her ministerial portfolios.
Brooke van Velden. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
One of the biggest appointments Luxon needs to deal with is that of Attorney General.
While tradition means the role is usually held by a lawyer, it’s not a legal requirement.
That could leave the door open for Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith to take on the job.
He’s already filled in for Collins when she has handed her powers over due to conflicts of interest.
Paul Goldsmith. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
If Luxon wanted to stick with the usual convention, then Penk and Conservation Minister Tama Potaka are lawyers, and Housing and Transport Minister Chris Bishop holds a law degree.
It’s likely Bishop will shed at least one portfolio given the workload he is under and the huge amount of legislation, including the Resource Management Act reform work he’s in charge of, that still needs to work its way through the House.
Chris Bishop. RNZ/Marika Khabazi
Reshuffles always have winners and losers and it’s a balancing act for any leader to keep everyone happy.
While safe pairs of hands are required on the big jobs, there’s also an opportunity for Luxon to reward talented and hard-working MPs by promoting them to ministerial positions outside of Cabinet.
There would be two such spaces available on Thursday if Luxon fills vacant Cabinet positions with ministers currently sitting outside.
Hawke’s Bay MPs Catherine Wedd and Katie Nimon could well be in the mix, as could chair of the heavy-weight finance and expenditure select committee Cameron Brewer.
Andrew Bayly. RNZ / REECE BAKER
One MP who will be watching closely to see if he’s being brought back into the fold is former minister Andrew Bayly.
Last year Bayly resigned to the Prime Minister after an incident involving a staff member that he said didn’t meet the expectations he set for himself.
Bayly has already announced he won’t be running in his safe Port Waikato seat at the election due to his family moving south but has left the option of running on the party list.
That option is motivated by a desire to be a minister again but with Luxon extremely unlikely to entertain the idea, Thursday’s reshuffle will almost certainly confirm his exit from politics in November.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
