Source: Radio New Zealand
Half of respondents think NZ is headed in the wrong direction under this coalition government, while just 32.3 think it’s headed the right way. File photo. RNZ
Analysis: Christopher Luxon’s personal performance and that of his party is worse, and more people think the country is headed in the wrong direction under his government.
Those are the bleak messages being sent by voters in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll.
The poll has National on just 30.8 – only just scraping above the death knell threshold of anything with a 2 at the start of it.
For Luxon personally his preferred prime minister score is 17.3 – down from 19.4 in RNZ’s last poll in January.
While there’s been speculation in recent weeks off the back of another bad poll that Luxon’s time as leader could be running out, the RNZ-Reid Research poll doesn’t point to any obvious successors.
Housing Minister Chris Bishop only reached 0.6 percent – down from 1.3, while often tipped future leader and Education Minister Erica Stanford registered 1.4 percent, up slightly from 1.2 at the last poll. Not exactly threatening results.
For Luxon, however, it’s his net favourability – the difference between those who think he’s doing well and those who rate his performance badly – where things really take a dive.
The Prime Minister has a net favourability score of -20.6, even worse than the dismal result he got in the last poll of -14.
If it’s the economy that Luxon will turn to for a brighter outlook, it’s only bad news there too.
Half of respondents – 50 percent – now think the country is headed in the wrong direction under this coalition government, while just 32.3 think it’s headed the right way.
Compare that with January when 46.6 percent picked wrong direction versus 36.3 that picked right and it’s another public sentiment tracking the opposite way to what Luxon and his team would like.
It’s worth noting 72.6 percent of National voters felt the country was headed the right way but a much smaller number for Act – just 57.5 percent – and an even worse showing for New Zealand First – only 26.6 percent – paints a story of coalition supporters also feeling gloomy.
While the net figure for wrong and right direction has been dropping since the first RNZ-Reid Research poll in March 2025, it did lift slightly in the last poll in January, only to plunge to an even lower score this time round.
The grim warnings are hot on the back of another poll that had National on 28 percent.
The Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll that was published on March 6 was a catalyst for questions over Luxon’s leadership and speculation that grew so fevered he had to go on air at the last minute for an unscheduled interview to dampen it down.
On RNZ-Reid Research’s poll numbers Labour, New Zealand First and the Greens had a slight improvement on their party vote while everyone else suffered drops.
Labour has the biggest share with 35.6, while New Zealand First is on 10.6, the Greens 10.1, Act 7 and Te Pati Maori 3.2.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins was also down in his preferred prime minister rating, on 20.7, while his net favourability was comfortably ahead of Luxon’s on +0.3.
While this poll covers the period in which Hipkins was in the media denying a number of allegations made by his ex-wife, which she had posted to social media, at least half of those polled had already been counted before that story broke.
If this poll result played out on election night, both the centre-right and the centre-left blocs would get 60 seats – not enough to form a government, leaving a hung parliament.
It’s been a tough month for New Zealanders already suffering a years-long cost of living crisis, with spiking prices at the pump, at the supermarket, and on other services like flights.
The ongoing war in Iran and no end-date in sight has people feeling nervous about the months ahead.
Winter is also looming, when Kiwis inevitably feel the pressure of sky-rocketing power prices.
It’s a less than rosy outlook and what this poll suggests is that National is wearing a lot of the responsibility for that and people aren’t enamored with Luxon.
Unpopular prime ministers have won elections before and it’s still seven months out from polling day, but the runway for turning the economy around is growing shorter by the week.
The problem with campaigning on getting the country back on track, as National did in 2023, is that sometimes situations well outside of its control can have an overwhelming impact on whether that’s achieved or not.
Rather than quietly cursing the policy-light Opposition at home, it’s political friends (perhaps turned foes) abroad who are causing Luxon the most grief.
*The RNZ-Reid Research poll covered the period of the 12th to the 20th of March and interviewed 1000 respondents online. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
