Military alliances: is NZ getting a tangled web or a ticket to get in?

Source: Radio New Zealand

China is warning that alliances will likely escalate rather than de-escalate tensions and “spread rather than limit the conflicts”.

The warning delivered by its ambassador in a hardhitting speech on geopolitics in Wellington on Thursday came as New Zealand was getting closer to Australia and Australia was getting closer to the United States on defence.

The speech closely followed China accusing the trans-Tasman allies of “arrogance” in a clash over military manouevres.

That in turn came on the heels of the allies releasing a new ‘Operationalising our Alliance’ joint statement aimed at “being able to operate seamlessly as an increasingly integrated, combat capable Anzac force by 2035”.

Canberra for its part under a separate alliance was “committed to deepening cooperation through accelerating and expanding joint defence initiatives, shared investments in new capabilities and industrial base integration” with the US.

This all came a few weeks after US President Donald Trump announced a big shift in how his administration would sell weapons.

Gone was what his directive called the “partner-first arms sales approach”, newly arriving was an “America First” arms export strategy, where allies would be encouraged to buy US-made weapons as an explicit powerful foreign policy tool that prioritised partners “that have invested in their own self-defense and have a critical role or geography for executing the National Security Strategy”.

‘I haven’t seen New Zealand miss out’

Would the new ‘America First’ priority partner list impact New Zealand? It had favoured status in Anzac, ANZUS and Five Eyes, but is not part of AUKUS.

RNZ put that question to L3 Harris, a top 10 US defence contractor that just did a billion-plus-dollar partnership to add missile rocket motors to the US “arsenal of freedom”; signed a defence collaboration deal with Saudi Arabia last month; and supplied advanced comms gear to the NZ navy and army.

“In my career, I haven’t seen New Zealand miss out because they weren’t perfectly aligned with the way that the administrations have played,” said Alan Clements, L3 Harris vice president for Australia and New Zealand.

“Never once have I heard, either when I was in the military or outside the military, that New Zealand was to be excluded from anything.

“Yes, there’s policies … but there are also carve-outs for that, there are waivers.

“From our company perspective, nothing that’s been said inside those policy settings has stopped us being able to work with New Zealand and deliver capability with New Zealand.”

The country was not part of AUKUS Pillar Two – a military tech sharing arrangement for Australia, the US and UK – but was not missing out, Clements said. “New Zealand wouldn’t miss out because New Zealand being part of the Five Eyes [intelligence grouping] would be able to get access to that as we go.”

Share and share alike

In Australia, defence media reports had foreseen “major implications” from Trump’s America First arms move.

It beholdened the Pentagon to put a MAGA lens over the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme, which was the place where New Zealand went arms shopping. The government began talks under the FMS last August to buy $2 billion of naval Seahawk helicopters.

The Seahawk deal showed how the closer the three militaries got, the closer they were likely to get. “The Seahawk helicopter, operated by Australia and the United States, is the preferred helicopter,” an aide memoire to Cabinet last year.

“The ability to leverage American and Australian supply chains and through-life support arrangements … makes this the most cost-effective and durable helicopter. It means Defence does not need to fund the integration and certification of essential military equipment and systems” – plus aircrew would be interchangeable.

Clements said the defence industries on either side of the Tasman had to align to rein in costs by preventing double up.

“We are now seeing more and more that we’re working closer together, particularly when it comes to capability alignment.”

L3 Harris had seven people working in New Zealand, compared with over 500 across the Tasman.

“But we work with other New Zealand companies and they do the work either as a subcontractor or sometimes as a prime for us where we try to build that capacity and capability within New Zealand itself, rather than import.”

‘Entanglements’

In the higher, weightier world of geopolitical alliances, who was in control?

China’s ambassador Wang Xiaolong warned on Thursday that alliances were “entanglements” where everyone would end up less secure.

“The next non-solution I want to debunk is military alliances, which we believe is, often a de-stabiliser rather than a stabiliser for the world.

“These alliances, by definition and by design, are meant to win wars rather than to keep the peace,” he told the Wellington Club.

Defence Minister Judith Collins, asked by RNZ on Thursday where the line was within increased integration, given Australia’s different positions, say, on nukes or the Iran war, said those were foreign policy differences, not defence.

“There’s no risk to our independence,” said Collins.

The existing “enormous” defence integration with Australia went both ways.

“The biggest risk to our independence is to not be closely connected to Australia,” she said.

The 2035 joint statement mentioned “sovereignty” six times.

‘Rocket diplomacy’

The statement also made clear the Anzacs would be using the same weapons more and more; by 2035 the two would “deploy increasingly integrated and interchangeable units”.

Australia and the US would be, too. Canberra recently signed on to spend over $20 billion with the Pentagon and contractor Lockheed to co-produce guided weapons – what Politico called “rocket diplomacy”.

The track to human-machine integation was also becoming well beaten. The US Army planned to deploy its first Human Machine Integrated Formation (HMIF) platoons by 2027, while the NZDF in its new long-term insights briefing made “human-machine teaming” one of four themes.

It was not just about sharing weapons at the pointy end either, but also the data-crunching AI systems behind them that the NZDF told MPs last week would become the number one force multiplier.

AI allowed command-and-control to be integated like never before on the battlefield. The NZDF was experimenting with this in US-led multinational exercises.

Clements said New Zealand’s stance and defence capability plan meant the country would probably want to head down the path of aligning command and control with their allies and partners, in particular Australia.

“That alignment with command and control is important for both countries.

“Australia has gone down a particular path with its command and control, and it aligns and the services have aligned slightly with the way the US do things.

“Those systems that are actually currently being used are not L3 Harris systems at the moment. But if there was an opportunity where they were looking at doing something new, then absolutely.”

Lower level control of, say, a drone could be programmed to “put constraints around what it goes to do, where it looks, [where] the information goes.

“So you can absolutely put constraints around that,” said Clements. Once the data went up to a higher level, that would be a different system.

So, L3 Harris’s product Amorphous that controlled of swams of land, sea and air drones all at once, could be controlled at the frontline, and a separate system sit behind it where the bigger targeting decisions were made.

Lethality on order?

One shift by Collins had been to order Defence to become more lethal.

Defence has been holding ‘early-days’ workshops with contractors to get ideas about drones and the like.

Was the NZDF asking for more lethal and autonomous weapons now?

“I’m not aware of them asking for that from us directly at the moment,” said Clements.

“But yes, as a defence organisation, we will develop capability using all the tools that we currently have to meet the requirements of the lethality requirements of the Defence Force.

“But often we’re not in there trying to beat a door down and say, ‘You need to buy this piece of kit’.

“It’s looking at what they’re doing from a full structure and then having a conversation about, ‘Do you think this would help you in what you do?’”

While Clements has stressed how “autonomy, AI-enabled sensing and unmanned systems” were transforming military capabilities, he told RNZ that autonomy was not a prerequisite for the huge gains in precision and humans could be first in the loop – “at the beginning to hit the button”.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand