Source: Radio New Zealand
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. RNZ / Mark Papalii
Analysis – The Prime Minister has doubled down in the wake of a horror poll on Friday, saying he is “absolutely not” considering stepping aside from the top job.
Christopher Luxon did a last-minute interview on Newstalk ZB on Friday night after a day of speculation and mounting pressure over whether he could convincingly stay on as prime minister after a new poll showed National had hit 28 percent.
He told ZB, “if there was a problem, I would be doing something about it, but we are a long way away from what we’ve seen published in a TPU poll today”.
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll showed the centre-Left bloc narrowly able to govern with 61 seats to the coalition government bloc’s 59 seats.
It had Labour up slightly on 34, while the Greens, ACT, and Te Pāti Māori were all up on 10.5, 7.5 and 3 respectively.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Education Minister Erica Stanford. RNZ / Marika Khabazi
On Monday, Luxon told RNZ’s Morning Report he wasn’t going anywhere, however, he also said he didn’t ask any of his MPs over the weekend if he had their support because, “they tell me regularly and it’s just not a question that needs to be asked”.
It’s a bold prime minister who assumes the support of his entire caucus after one of his worst weeks in the job, that was bookended by his inability to articulate the government’s position on the Iran conflict last Monday and a poll showing National below the red line of 30 on Friday.
How strong that support is will be made clear when his MPs gather at Parliament on Tuesday morning for their caucus meeting.
The National Party isn’t afraid to tell a few home-truths in their caucus meetings, and Luxon may well be on the receiving end of that this week.
Beyond his caucus’ reckons, the prime minister will also need to manage the concerns of his staff.
On Friday, there were murmurings that some senior staff were increasingly frustrated by their advice being ignored by Luxon and some of the government messaging no longer being convincing.
A poll putting National in the high 20s – the second public poll saying so since October last year – isn’t by any means the end of the prime minister’s career.
It will take a few more polls saying the same thing and a clear trend developing before the pressure will really mount.
At that point it’s those in his caucus who will be turfed out of Parliament first by a worsening National result who will start agitating.
Christopher Luxon and Transport Minister Chris Bishop. RNZ / Marika Khabazi
A potential result in the 20s in November will not only impact senior ministers relying on the success of the party list, such as Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, and Gerry Brownlee, but will also be damaging to swing seats like Hutt South, currently held by Chris Bishop.
At the moment, all of the polling shows the party blocs in a position to govern are still neck-and-neck.
That keeps National very much still in the game.
Probably more concerning for Luxon were the favourability results from Friday’s poll showing his net favourability has fallen three points to -19, well behind Labour leader Chris Hipkins on -5.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins RNZ / Marika Khabazi
Even New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is polling better on that score than Luxon with a score of -8, while closer to home Bishop received -14 and Erica Stanford scored -16.
MPs and ministers arriving at Parliament on Monday morning were all publicly backing Luxon, noting the poll wasn’t positive but the prime minister remained the best person to lead.
That will douse some of the speculation fire for today at least.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
