Source: Radio New Zealand
One of Luxon’s weaknesses in the top job is his inability to take feedback. RNZ / Mark Papalii
Analysis – If anyone is going to convince Christopher Luxon it’s time to step aside from the prime ministership, it’s his forerunner and friend Sir John Key.
The pair are close, and throughout Luxon’s time at the helm he has checked in almost weekly with the former prime minister.
One of Luxon’s weaknesses in the top job has been his inability to take feedback from colleagues, staff or officials. That has even extended to Key on occasions, where it’s understood Luxon has been keen to do most of the talking while Key has been left to do the listening.
Another Achilles’ heel is Luxon’s complete lack of self-doubt.
It’s understood those two personality traits have more recently extended to him not reading focus group reports because much of the criticism is that it’s Luxon who is the problem.
Key and Luxon usually catch up at the weekend, and while their chat in the next 48 hours is more likely to focus on what Luxon needs to change to reclaim the narrative, if he has had any doubt seep in about his future in the job then Key would also be first port of call for how best to manage his exit.
Their talks come after a disastrous week for Luxon bookended with woeful interviews on Monday and a poll sliding National below 30, to 28.4 percent, on Friday.
Sir John Key. Tim Collins
That Taxpayers’-Union Curia poll would see the centre-left bloc slide into power, but only just, with 61 seats to the coalition government’s 59.
This is the second public poll to have National below 30 since October last year – the same pollster had National on 29.6.
Luxon says he doesn’t read into or comment on polls, but the fact the two sliding National below that red line of 30 were conducted by their own internal pollster makes it more difficult for the prime minister to ignore.
If National is going to hit the nuclear button on a new leader it needs to consider the political landscape at play.
For a start, a change of leader does not always lead to a change of fortunes.
Secondly, a new leader will be coming into the job at the exact point in the electoral cycle where the coalition parties are trying to present a strong and stable government while simultaneously trying to distinguish themselves from each other.
The step-up from minister to prime minister is enormous on its own, let alone when it also requires that person to work both with and against experienced and politically savvy operators David Seymour and Winston Peters.
David Seymour and Winston Peters. RNZ
National MPs were already spooked before Friday’s poll landed.
Luxon’s failure to articulate a clear message on Iran early in the week had some commenting that his communicating to the public, via the media, had got worse over time rather than better.
At this point the National Party looks to be sitting on an orange alert, but it wouldn’t take much to slide into red. The triggers for that will be either Luxon deciding he’s had enough (the least likely of scenarios), those closest to Luxon (his wife Amanda, and Key) convincing him the best path is stepping aside, or the caucus and his staff making it clear on Tuesday when Parliament is back sitting that he no longer has their confidence.
Any decision to change leader will need to consider what impact it could have on National’s coalition partners.
Peters and Seymour wouldn’t tolerate any change to the coalition agreements and commitments already made by Luxon, and if a fresh leader had desires to do so then it would be game-on for New Zealand First and Act to renegotiate and ask a high price.
While all of these considerations go on in the background, those fancying themselves as the next prime minister will be spending the weekend weighing up the pros and cons.
Education Minister Erica Stanford has long been tipped as a future leader, while Housing and Transport Minister Chris Bishop will also be doing the maths.
He’s on his way to India to watch the T20 Cricket World Cup final between New Zealand and India in the wee hours of Monday morning (NZT).
If things start moving fast back home at the weekend, it wouldn’t be surprising if he got back on a plane before the first ball was bowled.
Luxon’s last engagement with the press gallery was on Wednesday at Parliament.
RNZ bumped into him briefly on Friday afternoon on the streets of Botany, but our questions all went unanswered.
He currently isn’t scheduled to front media again until his Monday morning regular slots, which is a very long time in politics.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
