Source: Radio New Zealand
Labour leader Chris Hipkins is getting little clarity from voters on which governing partners he should shut out. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Labour leader Chris Hipkins is getting little clarity from voters on which governing partners he should shut out, with a new poll showing the electorate divided on his post-election options.
Hipkins has so far refused to say which parties Labour would or would not work with in a future government but has promised to set that out “closer to the election”.
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, conducted from 15-22 January, asked New Zealanders whether Hipkins should rule out any potential pathways to power.
About half of voters want Labour to rule out deal with Te Pāti Māori
The most definitive response came regarding Te Pāti Māori, with almost half of all respondents – 49.6 percent – saying Labour should rule out working with it, compared with just over 34 percent who said it should not.
A further 16 percent said they did not know.
But Hipkins’ dilemma is driven home when looking more specifically at Labour’s own base.
There, just 38 percent of Labour voters said Hipkins should reject Te Pāti Māori, while 44 percent preferred to keep the option open. Undecideds numbered 18.5 percent.
Supporters of Te Pāti Māori and the Greens were strongly aligned in wanting Labour to leave the door open, with more than 60 percent in favour and just 20 percent against.
Among National voters, nearly two-thirds said Labour should rule out Te Pāti Māori, a view shared by about 75 percent of ACT voters and more than 80 percent of NZ First voters.
The polling lands after months of turmoil for Te Pāti Māori, marked by internal conflict, ill discipline and the expulsion of two MPs, one later reinstated after court action.
Hipkins has increasingly sharpened his criticism, saying Te Pāti Māori clearly was not ready for government right now. He has also said Labour would aim to win every Māori electorate, effectively eliminating Te Pāti Māori altogether.
But Labour’s pathway to power is precarious without Te Pāti Māori’s numbers.
The headline results from the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll show the opposition bloc – including Te Pāti Māori – just short of the majority support required.
NZ First could make the difference and has worked with Labour before, in 2005 and 2027. But leader Winston Peters says he will not work with Labour as long as Hipkins remains leader.
Hipkins has also been sceptical of any reunion, telling media he ruled out NZ First before the last election and that was “highly unlikely” to change.
New Zealand First divides voters most sharply
Voters appeared more open to the idea of a revived Labour-NZ First deal than the parties’ leaders were, though opinions were fairly evenly split.
Thirty-nine percent said Labour should shut the door on NZ First, while almost 37 percent said it should not. Nearly a quarter were undecided.
Labour voters leaned more strongly toward ruling NZ First out, with 45 percent suggesting that course of action and about 35 percent opposed.
In fact, supporters of every Parliamentary party except NZ First were, on balance, more inclined to want Labour to exclude Peters.
That was the stance of 37 percent of National voters, 44 percent of ACT voters, 46 percent of Te Pāti Māori voters and 52 percent of Green voters.
By contrast, just 23 percent of NZ First supporters wanted to kill off the potential partnership. Two thirds were in favour of keeping it on the table.
What about Labour’s good friends in the Greens?
Voters were also divided over whether Labour should rule out the Green Party, despite the two parties’ recent cooperation.
More than 40 percent of respondents said Labour should rule out the Greens, compared with about 46 percent who said it should not.
Once again, views split down government and opposition lines.
More than 60 percent of Labour voters wanted the Green Party to remain in play, as did 84 percent of Green voters.
National, ACT and NZ First voters were far more likely to want the Greens excluded.
Speaking to RNZ, Hipkins said he was giving “plenty of thought” to Labour’s governing options and would outline his position “in the fullness of time”.
“Under MMP, you do need to work with other parties,” he said. “But you’ve also got to make sure there’s some compatability there.”
This poll of 1000 people was conducted by Reid Research, using quota sampling and weighting to ensure representative cross section by age, gender and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between 15-22 January 2026 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
