Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted September 3–7 from a sample of 1,614 people, gave Labor a 51–49% lead using 2022 election preference flows. However, respondent-allocated preferences favoured the Coalition by 51–49%.
Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady since the August Resolve poll), 28% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 12% independents (up two) and 3% others (down one).
For both the Resolve and Wolf + Smith polls below, support for independents is higher than they would achieve at an election, as not every seat has a strong independent candidate.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped one point to -18, with 53% giving him a poor rating and 35% a good rating. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -1.
After trailing Dutton by one point as preferred PM in each of the last three months, Albanese led by 35–34% in this poll.The Liberals led Labor as best on economic management by 37–26%, but this lead was reduced from 40–23% in August. The Liberals’ lead over Labor on keeping the cost of living low was also reduced to 32–25% from 34–23%.
Asked who had the greatest responsibility for keeping inflation down, 51% said the federal government and treasurer, while 27% chose the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Asked about gambling ads on TV, 51% wanted them banned entirely, 32% favoured limiting them to two per hour during live sport, and 7% backed allowing unrestricted gambling ads.
Asked whether government should prioritise tackling sports betting or pokies, 47% said both, 12% said sports betting, 11% said pokies and 17% wanted gambling left alone.
Queensland polls indicate big LNP win
The Queensland state election is on October 26. A Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from June to September from a sample of 939 people, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 44% of the primary vote (up one since February to May), Labor 23% (down three), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 9% (up one) and others 4% (up two).
Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party figure, but The Poll Bludger estimated a 58–42% LNP lead from these primary votes.
LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability improved four points to +18, while Labor Premier Steven Miles’ net likeability improved only slightly to -13. Crisafulli led as preferred premier by 40–27%.
A Redbridge Queensland poll, conducted in two waves between May 15 and August 27 from a sample of 829 people, gave the LNP a 54.5–45.5% lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since a February to May poll.
Primary votes were 42% LNP (down five), 29% Labor (up one), 11% Greens (down one) and 18% for all Others (up five). The Redbridge poll is Labor’s best Queensland poll since March, but it would still be a thumping, and the other two polls are worse for Labor.
Wolf + Smith federal and state polls
A national poll by the Sydney-based agency Wolf + Smith gave federal Labor a 51–49% lead over the Coalition, from primary votes of 36% Coalition, 29% Labor, 13% Greens, 6% One Nation, 11% independents and 4% others. This poll was conducted August 6–29 by online methods from a very large sample of 10,239 people.
Living costs were rated the top issue by 41% of respondents and one of the top three issues by 62%. By contrast, climate change was rated the top issue by only 5%, while immigration was rated top by just 2%.
Wolf + Smith also conducted polls in all states. In New South Wales, there was a 50–50% tie between Labor and the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% Coalition, 32% Labor, 12% Greens, 14% independents and 4% others.
In Victoria, the Coalition led by 52–48%, from primary votes of 40% Coalition, 28% Labor, 14% Greens, 15% independents and 3% others.
In Queensland, the LNP led Labor by 57–43%, from primary votes of 42% LNP, 24% Labor, 12% Greens, 8% One Nation, 9% independents and 4% others.
In Western Australia, Labor led by 55–45%, from primary votes of 37% Labor, 32% Liberals and Nationals, 12% Greens, 4% One Nation, 8% independents and 8% others. The WA election is in March 2025.
In South Australia, Labor led by 60–40%, from primary votes of 41% Labor, 28% Liberals, 11% Greens, 5% One Nation, 10% independents and 5% others.
In Tasmania, which uses a proportional system for its elections, vote shares were 32% Liberal, 23% Labor, 14% Greens, 11% Jacqui Lambie Network, 15% independents and 4% others. This poll was mostly taken before the August 24 JLN bust-up.
The Wolf + Smith polls had similar results in NSW, Victoria and Queensland as other recent polls. The SA poll is the first in the state by any pollster since Labor won the 2022 state election.
Federal Essential and Morgan polls
A national Essential poll, conducted September 4–7 from a sample of 1,132 people, had a 48–48% tie between Labor and the Coalition, including undecided voters (Labor had a 48–46% lead in late August). Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up two), 30% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one), 1% UAP (steady), 8% for all Others (down three) and 5% undecided (down one).
On the international student cap, 53% thought it was about right, 37% too high and 10% too low.
For the 2026 Census, 42% said there should be questions on both gender and sexual orientation, 25% no such questions, 23% questions on gender but not sexual orientation, and 10% questions on sexual orientation but not gender.
A national Morgan poll, conducted September 2–8 from a sample of 1,703 people, gave Labor a 51–49% lead over the Coalition, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the August 26 to September 1 Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 36.5% Coalition (up 0.5), 30% Labor (down 0.5), 14.5% Greens (up 1.5), 6% One Nation (steady), 9.5% independents (steady) and 3.5% others (down 1.5).
The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preferences, Labor led by an unchanged 52–48%.
Final NSW federal redistribution
I wrote about the final federal redistributions of Victoria and Western Australia on Monday, which only had minor changes from the draft redistributions. The final New South Wales redistribution were released today.
Consistent with the draft redistribution, the North Sydney electorate has been abolished. ABC election analyst Antony Green said he does not believe “any of the final changes have much impact on marginal seats”. I covered the draft redistributions in June.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
– ref. New polling: half of Australians want gambling ads banned entirely; LNP has big Queensland lead – https://theconversation.com/new-polling-half-of-australians-want-gambling-ads-banned-entirely-lnp-has-big-queensland-lead-238525
